Latest / Pod Save America / "Nuke the Hurricane."
Transcript
- 0:20Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Lovett.
- 0:22Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
- 0:23Speaker 1: Favreau and Tommy are on vacation in Biarritz, making eyes
- 0:27Speaker 1: with Justin Trudeau while Trump watches.
- 0:31Speaker 2: Dan, how you doing? Good, how are you?
- 0:33Speaker 1: Look at this. Another Jetsons-Flintons crossover. It's what the people want.
- 0:39Speaker 2: That's your crossover episode go-to? It is. I don't know.
- 0:43Speaker 1: Didn't Mad About You go somewhere once? Didn't they show
- 0:46Speaker 1: up in places?
- 0:46Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. ALF was on Gilligan's Island. There
- 0:50Speaker 2: are a couple other ones. All right, let's move on.
- 0:52Speaker 1: Today we're going to talk about new additions to Trump's
- 0:54Speaker 1: long list of enemies, foreign and domestic. Now it's the
- 0:56Speaker 1: chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Jay Powell, who definitely
- 0:59Speaker 1: had a rough Friday. We'll also look at... at Trump's
- 1:02Speaker 1: escalating trade war with China and his decision to skip
- 1:04Speaker 1: a climate change meeting at a tumultuous gathering at the
- 1:06Speaker 1: G7 in France. Then we'll cover the Republican presidential primary,
- 1:10Speaker 1: which is heating up. Dan, do you think it's fair
- 1:13Speaker 1: to say that it's heating up?
- 1:14Speaker 2: It's hotter than it was before, so yes.
- 1:19Speaker 1: And the latest news around the Democratic race. Plus, we'll
- 1:21Speaker 1: have Dan's interview with Ben Wickler, the new chair of
- 1:23Speaker 1: the Wisconsin Democratic Party, on Ben's efforts to organize in
- 1:26Speaker 1: Wisconsin one of, if not the most important states we
- 1:28Speaker 1: can target in 2020. Dan, I know there was one
- 1:31Speaker 1: thing you wanted to mention.
- 1:33Speaker 2: Sure. So for all of our listeners who are in
- 1:36Speaker 2: the Bay Area, on September 16th, Hallie and I are
- 1:39Speaker 2: hosting a fundraiser for RAICES with our friends from Airbnb
- 1:43Speaker 2: at their headquarters here in San Francisco. At that fundraiser,
- 1:46Speaker 2: I'll be interviewing Hope Fry, who is one of the
- 1:48Speaker 2: attorneys who has been visiting the immigration facilities. As people
- 1:52Speaker 2: listening to the pod know, RAICES is an amazing organization
- 1:55Speaker 2: that is working to reunite the separated families and advocate
- 1:59Speaker 2: for immigrants, particularly those who are suffering at the hands
- 2:02Speaker 2: of the Trump administration's policies. So for everyone who's in
- 2:06Speaker 2: the area, I hope you can join us. I will
- 2:08Speaker 2: tweet out the invitation and more details later today.
- 2:12Speaker 1: So go to that.
- 2:12Speaker 2: Yeah, come.
- 2:13Speaker 1: And then also on Thursday, I will be joined by
- 2:15Speaker 1: Alyssa Mastromonaco, who will be filling in for Dan on
- 2:18Speaker 1: a very special Thursday pod, which should be fun. But
- 2:21Speaker 1: let's start with the latest on Trump's various trade wars
- 2:24Speaker 1: and Twitter wars, because they're having very real consequences for
- 2:27Speaker 1: the economy right now. You and John talked about it
- 2:31Speaker 1: last Thursday, about the kind of increasingly unhinged musings of
- 2:38Speaker 1: Trump around the economy. But on Friday, it did get worse.
- 2:42Speaker 1: We woke up to news that China would be adding
- 2:44Speaker 1: $ 75 billion in retaliatory tariffs. The Fed chair, Jay Powell,
- 2:47Speaker 1: gave a speech where basically he said that the trade
- 2:49Speaker 1: war was doing damage and the Fed was not the
- 2:52Speaker 1: right tool to fix it. Trump found the perfect way
- 2:55Speaker 1: to combine these two news events.
- 2:58Speaker 2: He said.
- 2:59Speaker 1: quote, my only question is, who is our bigger enemy,
- 3:02Speaker 1: Jay Powell or Chairman Xi? Dan, were you surprised to
- 3:09Speaker 1: see the president basically issue a threat to the Fed
- 3:15Speaker 1: chair on Twitter comparing him to a foreign adversary?
- 3:19Speaker 2: Well, I'm not even sure if it was a threat
- 3:22Speaker 2: to Powell. I And both. And the funny thing is,
- 3:28Speaker 2: I saw that tweet, and then I saw that it
- 3:31Speaker 2: had been deleted. And I was like, oh, someone got
- 3:34Speaker 2: to Trump. They suggested that maybe it was a bad
- 3:36Speaker 2: idea to label China our enemy and make the suggestion
- 3:40Speaker 2: about the Fed chair. But no, he reposted it moments
- 3:43Speaker 2: later because he simply had a typo, which in and
- 3:45Speaker 2: of itself, I guess, shows growth from Trump.
- 3:47Speaker 1: It was a typo. So it wasn't a fit of pique.
- 3:49Speaker 1: He went back and really made sure that he stuck
- 3:52Speaker 1: the landing. It wasn't extraordinary. I do think it's Look,
- 3:55Speaker 1: I know we talk about Trump tweets all the time,
- 3:57Speaker 1: but it really is an extraordinary document because it contains
- 4:01Speaker 1: two very big parts of what Trump is doing at once.
- 4:05Speaker 1: On the one hand, it is calling China an enemy,
- 4:08Speaker 1: which is a big deal. And then on the other hand,
- 4:12Speaker 1: it is this personal politics of threats and harassment that
- 4:15Speaker 1: he practices now against the chair of the Federal Reserve,
- 4:20Speaker 1: a position that is incredibly important in our economy that
- 4:23Speaker 1: for a very long time, was treated as sacrosanct, was
- 4:28Speaker 1: treated as something at least in some ways apolitical, whether
- 4:31Speaker 1: or not that's true, because there was a recognition that
- 4:34Speaker 1: there is a lot of danger in getting our scuzzy
- 4:38Speaker 1: partisan politics on the way the Fed operates, given how
- 4:42Speaker 1: important monetary policy is to the economy. So let's take
- 4:45Speaker 1: each one at a time. Dan, why is it a
- 4:46Speaker 1: big deal for Trump to declare China an enemy?
- 4:52Speaker 2: You know, it seems so quaint, like even thinking about
- 4:54Speaker 2: this way, but there was this time where we spent
- 4:57Speaker 2: all this time thinking and caring about the words that
- 5:01Speaker 2: came not just out of the president's mouth, but out
- 5:02Speaker 2: of any person who could credibly be labeled a spokesperson
- 5:07Speaker 2: for the United States government, whether, you know, that was
- 5:09Speaker 2: Jay Kearney or Josh Earnest or Robert Gibbs or, you know,
- 5:13Speaker 2: an assistant press secretary in the White House, and that
- 5:16Speaker 2: anyone with White House in their title could cause international
- 5:19Speaker 2: incident or markets to sink. I guess now we know why.
- 5:24Speaker 2: But the idea that we're very careful what we call
- 5:28Speaker 2: other countries. And the people have been very specific with
- 5:32Speaker 2: China to call it either an adversary or a strategic competitor,
- 5:36Speaker 2: because enemies are the people you go to war with.
- 5:38Speaker 2: And we can all decide that we don't care, that
- 5:41Speaker 2: Trump isn't someone we should take seriously or literally either one.
- 5:44Speaker 2: But the people of China see that, and it probably
- 5:47Speaker 2: is concerning to them that the United States with the
- 5:50Speaker 2: most powerful military in the world, and a gazillion nuclear weapons,
- 5:54Speaker 2: thinks that China is an enemy. And so everyone has
- 5:59Speaker 2: laughed it off and we've paid little attention to it,
- 6:00Speaker 2: but these are the kind of things that have mattered
- 6:03Speaker 2: before and we'll have to wonder whether they matter again.
- 6:05Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there is a sort of now, the
- 6:08Speaker 1: system seems to protect itself from Trump's words because we
- 6:11Speaker 1: just don't take them as seriously. But it does seem
- 6:15Speaker 1: as though there was regret on the part of the
- 6:19Speaker 1: Trump administration. At the G7, Trump then struck a much
- 6:24Speaker 1: more conciliatory tone in how he talked about China, how
- 6:28Speaker 1: he talked about the Chinese president, referring to him as
- 6:31Speaker 1: being very capable, talking about the importance of making a deal. Now,
- 6:35Speaker 1: there was this sort of mini kerfuffle around whether or
- 6:39Speaker 1: not Trump had second thoughts about the trade war, and
- 6:41Speaker 1: we can get to that. But do you think that
- 6:43Speaker 1: even in his, forget the explicit discussion of second thoughts.
- 6:47Speaker 1: Is there an acknowledgement that he went too far in
- 6:50Speaker 1: just the way he addressed China during this meeting?
- 6:54Speaker 2: I think it, yes, I think there is an acknowledgement,
- 6:57Speaker 2: but I think he views that the consequences of his statements,
- 7:00Speaker 2: not in the context of U.S. relations around the world,
- 7:04Speaker 2: but in the very specific context of he needs China
- 7:08Speaker 2: to help him get out of this mess, right? He
- 7:10Speaker 2: is He banked his reelection on these glowing assessments of
- 7:16Speaker 2: the economy, saying he's given us the greatest economy in
- 7:18Speaker 2: the world, even though the facts do not back that
- 7:21Speaker 2: up by any stretch of the imagination. And so I
- 7:25Speaker 2: think he did a thing where he pushed really hard,
- 7:28Speaker 2: sort of realized, maybe I went too far, so I'm
- 7:30Speaker 2: going to walk it back. But not because it's bad
- 7:32Speaker 2: for the US, but because it's bad for Trump. Let's
- 7:35Speaker 2: talk about the other ways.
- 7:35Speaker 1: In which he seemed to escalate this feud with China
- 7:39Speaker 1: over the weekend. He issued a series of tweets in
- 7:44Speaker 1: which he, quote, hereby ordered, end quote, American companies to
- 7:49Speaker 1: look elsewhere from China. Immediately, people were very concerned about
- 7:55Speaker 1: what he meant by this, if he meant anything at all,
- 7:57Speaker 1: if it was a serious order, if there was some
- 8:00Speaker 1: legal mechanism by which he could enforce this order. He
- 8:03Speaker 1: then tweeted reference to a law which he claims gives
- 8:07Speaker 1: him the authority to do things like this. It does
- 8:10Speaker 1: seem as though someone made a mistake in teaching him
- 8:12Speaker 1: the word hereby because it seems as though he added
- 8:14Speaker 1: that to make it sound more official. How big of
- 8:18Speaker 1: a deal is it, Dan, that Trump is hereby ordering
- 8:21Speaker 1: American companies to look elsewhere?
- 8:24Speaker 2: I mean, I think it says a lot about the
- 8:28Speaker 2: moment we're in. Like we can talk about the specifics
- 8:31Speaker 2: of the order that was hereby given. But he obviously
- 8:35Speaker 2: doesn't have the authority to do this. And no one
- 8:37Speaker 2: seems to be immediately shuttering their factories overseas. But I
- 8:42Speaker 2: see a couple different dimensions. One is it must be
- 8:46Speaker 2: noted that almost everything that Trump has ever sold with
- 8:50Speaker 2: his name on it is made in China. And that
- 8:52Speaker 2: still to this day, the Chinese government is bribing the
- 8:55Speaker 2: Trump family by granting trademarks to his daughter, Ivanka Trump,
- 8:59Speaker 2: who somehow has a line of goods that are still
- 9:02Speaker 2: sold in China while working in the White House. So
- 9:04Speaker 2: there's just a general lack of self-awareness there. The second
- 9:07Speaker 2: part is, I do think we didn't... I know he
- 9:12Speaker 2: can't actually order people to do it, but I don't
- 9:15Speaker 2: know that the conversation around it in the media by
- 9:18Speaker 2: other politicians fully grasps the gravity of the moment. I mean,
- 9:23Speaker 2: Trump is at bare minimum, Trump is authoritarian curious. And
- 9:29Speaker 2: here he is ordering... the American companies who stopped doing
- 9:33Speaker 2: business in China, and all this pretend like, oh, he
- 9:37Speaker 2: couldn't possibly have meant that. It's not that serious. We're
- 9:40Speaker 2: just going to ignore it. But we have gone to
- 9:44Speaker 2: the point where we're neither taking Trump seriously or literally,
- 9:47Speaker 2: and that's probably a pretty bad thing for the country.
- 9:50Speaker 2: Even if it was just what it says about the
- 9:52Speaker 2: person in charge of the country right now is that
- 9:54Speaker 2: he's like, he is your crazy uncle that you just
- 9:57Speaker 2: dismiss what they say at the Thanksgiving dinner.
- 10:00Speaker 1: Right. There's two pieces of this that I think are
- 10:04Speaker 1: why it's alarming. There's the one piece of it you're describing,
- 10:08Speaker 1: which is just not taking what Trump is saying seriously because, oh,
- 10:12Speaker 1: the law is murky. But once again, whenever Trump has
- 10:17Speaker 1: sought to expand executive power in some way. This has
- 10:20Speaker 1: been true around immigration. This has been true on a
- 10:22Speaker 1: number of other issues. There's immediately this look at the
- 10:25Speaker 1: law and whether or not it's possible. You know, Trump
- 10:28Speaker 1: tweeted out reference to a law that he believes gives
- 10:32Speaker 1: him emergency powers to make these kinds of declarations over
- 10:35Speaker 1: the economy. But the debate tends to resolve to, well,
- 10:40Speaker 1: kind of, sort of, probably not. It would end up
- 10:43Speaker 1: in the courts. And everybody just sort of goes along
- 10:45Speaker 1: with that uncertainty. as if that's an acceptable way to
- 10:49Speaker 1: imbue a single very unfit person with a tremendous amount
- 10:53Speaker 1: of power. The other piece of it is what it
- 10:55Speaker 1: signals about the trade war and whether or not he
- 10:58Speaker 1: views it as something that will end soon. So he's
- 11:01Speaker 1: in Baritz and I love saying that he's in Baritz
- 11:04Speaker 1: because it's just a city I associate with like drunken
- 11:09Speaker 1: Hemingway adventures, you know, but, uh, He's in Buritz.
- 11:15Speaker 2: I'm sure Trump spent the whole time just catching up,
- 11:17Speaker 2: rereading all of his Hemingways.
- 11:19Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great time for Trump to dive into
- 11:21Speaker 1: The Sun Also Rises, sort of like be in the
- 11:24Speaker 1: place while experiencing what it was like in another time.
- 11:27Speaker 1: But so as an American traveler, you know?
- 11:30Speaker 2: The ugly American. More of a green green situation.
- 11:33Speaker 1: The greatest mind of his generation. Yeah. Anyway, he is
- 11:38Speaker 1: in Buritz talking about how he wants it to resolve.
- 11:40Speaker 1: He wants there to be an end. He wants there
- 11:42Speaker 1: to be a deal. while he's signaling to American companies
- 11:45Speaker 1: for his own politics, and maybe because he also views
- 11:48Speaker 1: this as a trade war that will go on for
- 11:50Speaker 1: a long time, to start looking to stop doing business
- 11:53Speaker 1: in China because of how extensive this trade war is
- 11:57Speaker 1: going to be.
- 11:59Speaker 2: But it's also a temper tantrum, right? Which is he's
- 12:01Speaker 2: out of options. He has placed his fate in the
- 12:05Speaker 2: hand of the Chinese. He doesn't understand them. He doesn't
- 12:08Speaker 2: understand what their calculus is. And He doesn't get that
- 12:11Speaker 2: he's on a 18-month timeline right now and Xi will
- 12:15Speaker 2: never stand for election again and can be in charge
- 12:17Speaker 2: as long as he wants. And it is– like you
- 12:20Speaker 2: have– and sort of the going back and forth between
- 12:24Speaker 2: threats and flattery goes to a point that you have
- 12:26Speaker 2: made many times, which is Trump views this as a
- 12:29Speaker 2: negotiation with a guy selling a marble for countertops, right?
- 12:32Speaker 2: Which is he thinks– like he doesn't– he's doing one-dimensional negotiations,
- 12:37Speaker 2: which is if I– threaten them, then flatter them, then
- 12:40Speaker 2: threaten them, then flatter them. They'll eventually do what I
- 12:42Speaker 2: want when like the Chinese have a thousand different interests
- 12:46Speaker 2: at stake here. And he hasn't even begun to calculate
- 12:50Speaker 2: like what, what would get them to yes.
- 12:54Speaker 1: Right. And there is also just this inherent challenge we
- 12:58Speaker 1: have as a democracy, which is they're playing on a
- 13:00Speaker 1: much longer timeline. They have, they have greater tools at
- 13:03Speaker 1: their disposal. You know, Trump, bristling at the Fed, Trump
- 13:07Speaker 1: trying to order American companies to move their factories, it
- 13:11Speaker 1: does go to the problem with this trade war that
- 13:15Speaker 1: many pointed out from the beginning, which is China has
- 13:17Speaker 1: a much different set of tools than the United States does.
- 13:21Speaker 1: But he dove in because he never considered it at all.
- 13:25Speaker 1: He didn't consider the long-term implications of this fight. He
- 13:28Speaker 1: didn't consider very much of anything. It's a It's a
- 13:32Speaker 1: view he's had since 1985. It's frozen in amber, this
- 13:36Speaker 1: idea that you need to fight China on trade.
- 13:38Speaker 2: 1985 was a good term because 1985 was basically the
- 13:42Speaker 2: year he stopped learning things. You can take back all
- 13:46Speaker 2: of his views or sort of the views of an
- 13:48Speaker 2: old rich guy in New York from the 80s.
- 13:52Speaker 1: There is a bookmark on page 13 of the very
- 13:56Speaker 1: last book he tried to read, and it is very
- 14:00Speaker 1: much where it was left at. in 1985. Dan, before
- 14:03Speaker 1: we move on, there was a very important question that
- 14:07Speaker 1: was apparently on the mind of many world leaders. This
- 14:10Speaker 1: is what Trump reports. The question I was asked most
- 14:12Speaker 1: today by fellow world leaders who think that the US
- 14:15Speaker 1: is doing so well and is stronger than ever before
- 14:17Speaker 1: happens to be, Mr. President, why does the American media
- 14:20Speaker 1: hate your country so much? Why are they rooting for
- 14:23Speaker 1: it to fail? Dan, do you believe it was Merkel
- 14:26Speaker 1: who said that? Macron? Who do you think is the
- 14:30Speaker 1: one who ask such a pointed and honestly hard-hitting question
- 14:34Speaker 1: for all of us to consider.
- 14:38Speaker 2: Was the other most asked question, President Trump, why are
- 14:41Speaker 2: you so awesome? He is such a bad liar because
- 14:48Speaker 2: he has now taken a lie that is so obviously
- 14:52Speaker 2: not true, but he's also There's only six other people.
- 14:55Speaker 2: It's a G7, so there's only six other people who
- 14:58Speaker 2: can ask him the question. So it makes it pretty
- 15:01Speaker 2: easy to prove that he is full of shit.
- 15:04Speaker 1: I mean, I guess Boris Johnson could have in some
- 15:07Speaker 1: way asked the question. It's not inconceivable.
- 15:11Speaker 2: Yes, I guess if there was one person who would
- 15:13Speaker 2: do it, it would be the other authoritarian wannabe anti-immigrant
- 15:19Speaker 2: world leader with bad hair of a once great nation.
- 15:23Speaker 1: Let's talk about the G7 for a bit. The Times
- 15:29Speaker 1: has had, I thought, very delightful, delightful writing out of
- 15:32Speaker 1: the G7. Ever so gingerly, as if determined not to
- 15:36Speaker 1: rouse the American's well-known temper, the other group of seven
- 15:39Speaker 1: leaders thought to nudge him toward their views on the
- 15:41Speaker 1: pressing issues of the day, or at least register their differences,
- 15:44Speaker 1: while making sure to wrap them in a French crepe
- 15:47Speaker 1: of flattery, as they know he prefers. Though I don't
- 15:50Speaker 1: believe he has ever allowed a crepe to enter his face.
- 15:56Speaker 2: Like a small child, he would lick the filling out.
- 16:03Speaker 1: Man, do you think that we've talked about Trump too
- 16:05Speaker 1: much in our lives? What do you think we would
- 16:10Speaker 1: have talked about for days on end during this period
- 16:13Speaker 1: at Hillary Clinton 1? Would we have had other hobbies?
- 16:16Speaker 1: Would you think we would have taken up, I don't know, painting, archery?
- 16:19Speaker 1: What do you think?
- 16:20Speaker 2: I don't know, solve climate change, cured cancer, watch more
- 16:25Speaker 2: better TV. I don't know.
- 16:27Speaker 1: So, so I think there was a signal event at
- 16:30Speaker 1: the G7 that's worth talking about that I think captures
- 16:32Speaker 1: this tension between the rest of the world and Trump
- 16:35Speaker 1: at this event. There was a meeting to talk about
- 16:37Speaker 1: climate change and, uh, the fires currently ravaging the Amazon
- 16:42Speaker 1: in Brazil in part as a result of the populist
- 16:45Speaker 1: government that has taken power there and their, uh, disregard
- 16:49Speaker 1: for environmental rules to protect a part of the world
- 16:53Speaker 1: that sucks up carbon dioxide and provides oxygen for the planet.
- 16:58Speaker 1: So a big deal. Trump skipped the meeting, claiming that
- 17:02Speaker 1: he was busy because he had meetings with other leaders
- 17:06Speaker 1: like Merkel and Modi in India. However, both of those
- 17:11Speaker 1: leaders attended the meeting. Dan, why do you think Trump
- 17:17Speaker 1: skipped the climate change meeting?
- 17:20Speaker 2: Because he's scared. This has happened a couple of times
- 17:24Speaker 2: in various G7s or G20s or UN General Assemblies where
- 17:30Speaker 2: the topic is climate change, and the rest of the
- 17:32Speaker 2: world agrees that climate change is real because it's only
- 17:37Speaker 2: one half of our two-party political system of America who
- 17:42Speaker 2: refuses to believe that climate change is real. And so
- 17:44Speaker 2: it It was going to be uncomfortable, and he seeks
- 17:46Speaker 2: to avoid confrontation. So he hid out in his room
- 17:49Speaker 2: and watched, I don't know, I assume whatever was on
- 17:52Speaker 2: Fox News at the moment. And it probably, like, it's
- 17:57Speaker 2: kind of funny that Trump is such a giant wuss
- 18:00Speaker 2: and for someone who talks so tough that he can't
- 18:02Speaker 2: even defend his indefensible views on climate change. But the
- 18:07Speaker 2: world is, as you point out, literally on fire. The
- 18:10Speaker 2: world and the United States can't even show up to
- 18:13Speaker 2: the meetings. I mean, it's like when it's all said
- 18:17Speaker 2: and done, if we ever get Trump out of here
- 18:18Speaker 2: and reverse some of his policies and reverse some of
- 18:21Speaker 2: his executive orders, the most damage that Trump will do
- 18:25Speaker 2: will be the opportunity cost of four to eight years
- 18:29Speaker 2: of dealing with climate change, four to eight years we
- 18:31Speaker 2: don't really have.
- 18:32Speaker 1: And the abdication of American leadership. We saw Trump basically
- 18:38Speaker 1: issue bromides encouraging Brazil to tackle the fires and suggesting
- 18:43Speaker 1: that we'd help as if this is a purely natural
- 18:46Speaker 1: disaster Brazil is unequipped to fix, as opposed to something
- 18:49Speaker 1: that the government has actively encouraged. And we've seen other
- 18:53Speaker 1: leaders like Macron in France and others step up to
- 18:56Speaker 1: try to pressure Brazil into doing the right thing. And
- 18:59Speaker 1: the Times reported that even as Trump talked about how
- 19:04Speaker 1: much comedy there was at the G7, how well these
- 19:08Speaker 1: countries were getting along. And by the way, it is
- 19:09Speaker 1: always so uncomfortable how much he personalizes even these moments
- 19:14Speaker 1: about how much basically describing it as a great time.
- 19:17Speaker 1: And that's so important. It's so important that we had
- 19:18Speaker 1: fun here and really, really had a blast. We wanted
- 19:20Speaker 1: the meeting to last longer. We could have talked for
- 19:23Speaker 1: another hour as if these personal relationships are that important
- 19:27Speaker 1: if it's based on his personal affection for these people.
- 19:30Speaker 1: But behind the scenes, Trump administration officials were criticizing the
- 19:34Speaker 1: G7 in France for focusing on niche issues. One of
- 19:38Speaker 1: those niche issues was climate change.
- 19:41Speaker 2: Yes, the niche issue that matters to the entire fucking planet.
- 19:48Speaker 1: So, Dan, if there were an American president, period, if
- 19:53Speaker 1: there was someone, if that job was filled appropriately by
- 20:00Speaker 1: a full-fledged functioning person, what would that president be doing
- 20:07Speaker 1: differently about the crisis in Brazil?
- 20:12Speaker 2: I think about this all the time because, you know,
- 20:15Speaker 2: when we worked in the White House, you're constantly faced
- 20:17Speaker 2: with crises and you often have a limited set of
- 20:20Speaker 2: tools at your disposal to deal with it. And we
- 20:24Speaker 2: were working on these, you know, people within the government,
- 20:26Speaker 2: the White House work on these things all the time.
- 20:29Speaker 2: And I just wonder sometimes what the people in the
- 20:31Speaker 2: Trump White House are doing other than retconning his tweets
- 20:35Speaker 2: into policy. But so in this situation, what you have
- 20:39Speaker 2: is you have a fire in the Amazon that threatens
- 20:43Speaker 2: the world. It threatens climate change, everything. You have a corrupt,
- 20:49Speaker 2: essentially a dictator in Brazil who is unwilling or incapable
- 20:53Speaker 2: to deal with the situation. How would the United States
- 20:55Speaker 2: deal with this? It would have been not a meeting
- 20:58Speaker 2: the United States skipped. It would have been a meeting
- 20:59Speaker 2: the United States chaired at the G7. The president would
- 21:01Speaker 2: be on the phone with leaders around the world, with
- 21:04Speaker 2: the other G7 nations, but also in the region, marshalling
- 21:09Speaker 2: support and putting pressure on Brazil to do something. Instead,
- 21:15Speaker 2: we're just sending tweets. A lot of what's been going
- 21:20Speaker 2: on in Trump's Friday meltdown over the weekend is just
- 21:24Speaker 2: this really crystallization of what has happened to America's leadership
- 21:30Speaker 2: role in the world under Trump. The consequences of it
- 21:34Speaker 2: are serious. I saw on Twitter this morning that bethany
- 21:37Speaker 2: frankel of the uh real housewives of new york's of
- 21:41Speaker 2: new york is chartering a plane to go like a
- 21:45Speaker 2: tanker plane to go spray the fires and some areas
- 21:47Speaker 2: and try to help indigenous people and people are cheering
- 21:51Speaker 2: the fact that she is doing it because it's great
- 21:53Speaker 2: she's doing it but also because no one else is
- 21:55Speaker 2: doing it right like we actually need people from the
- 21:58Speaker 2: cast of bravo reality shows to step in and do
- 22:00Speaker 2: the things the united states government would do which is scary.
- 22:04Speaker 1: I mean look they are the real heroes uh you know,
- 22:07Speaker 1: in a, in a dark time. Well, it's also, you know,
- 22:10Speaker 1: Franklin Ford wrote in the Atlantic about the ways in
- 22:12Speaker 1: which these fires are more dangerous than weapons of mass destruction, that,
- 22:17Speaker 1: that basically this incredibly valuable global resource is being threatened
- 22:21Speaker 1: by this one government. And you can imagine a, an
- 22:25Speaker 1: order led by a, by an American president who cares
- 22:29Speaker 1: about this issue and who cares about working with allies
- 22:32Speaker 1: on this issue, coming up with a way to think
- 22:34Speaker 1: about these really important questions, about these incredibly precious global
- 22:39Speaker 1: resources at a moment where scientists tell us we're at
- 22:42Speaker 1: a hinge point as to whether or not we can
- 22:44Speaker 1: address climate change. You could imagine an American president leading
- 22:47Speaker 1: not just on this one issue, but in thinking about
- 22:49Speaker 1: these broader questions about resource use, about agriculture. And by
- 22:54Speaker 1: the way, the fact that there is a populist in
- 22:56Speaker 1: Brazil is just another reminder too that this scourge of
- 22:59Speaker 1: right-wing populism is genuinely threatening the health of the planet.
- 23:05Speaker 2: There's obviously connections between why we have a populist in Brazil,
- 23:11Speaker 2: a populist in the United Kingdom, and a populist in
- 23:13Speaker 2: the United States all at the same time. But you
- 23:16Speaker 2: couldn't pick a worse time in world history to seed
- 23:21Speaker 2: some of the most important influential governments, either diplomatically or militarily,
- 23:27Speaker 2: or in the case of Brazil, literally in charge of
- 23:29Speaker 2: the world's oxygen supply to have these sort of knuckleheads
- 23:34Speaker 2: at the switch, you know, at this moment.
- 23:38Speaker 1: Yeah. And it's just worth remembering too, that this abdication
- 23:41Speaker 1: of American leadership, as many have pointed out, as Joe
- 23:46Speaker 1: Biden has pointed out, that if we can get Trump
- 23:48Speaker 1: out of office, we can make this period of time
- 23:51Speaker 1: an aberration, not because we don't, not because we view
- 23:54Speaker 1: Trump as an aberration, but because we can signal to
- 23:57Speaker 1: the world that we recognize the mistake of Trump. But
- 24:01Speaker 1: if we affirm him in a second term, the opportunity
- 24:04Speaker 1: to send that message to the world is gone at
- 24:07Speaker 1: an incredibly critical moment.
- 24:09Speaker 2: No one is ever going to be more popular than
- 24:11Speaker 2: the first president who isn't Trump at like the G20
- 24:15Speaker 2: or the United Nations.
- 24:17Speaker 1: They'll carry him in on one of those litters. Before
- 24:23Speaker 1: we leave this climate discussion, there was one other story
- 24:26Speaker 1: that I do believe we have to discuss. I will
- 24:29Speaker 1: read from an Axios post that I think caught the
- 24:33Speaker 1: world by storm, shall we say. President Trump has suggested
- 24:38Speaker 1: multiple times to senior homeland security and national security officials
- 24:41Speaker 1: that they explore using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes from
- 24:44Speaker 1: hitting the United States. It goes on. During one hurricane
- 24:47Speaker 1: briefing at the White House, Trump said, I got it.
- 24:50Speaker 1: I got it. I can't do it. I got it.
- 24:54Speaker 1: I got it. Why don't we nuke them? According to
- 24:56Speaker 1: one source who was there. They start forming off the
- 24:59Speaker 1: coast of Africa. As they're moving across the Atlantic, we
- 25:01Speaker 1: drop a bomb inside of the hurricane and it disrupts it.
- 25:04Speaker 1: Why can't we do that, the source added, paraphrasing the
- 25:06Speaker 1: president's remarks. Asked how the briefer reacted, the source recalled
- 25:09Speaker 1: he said something to the effect of, sir, we'll look
- 25:12Speaker 1: into that.
- 25:19Speaker 2: Are you concerned? Am I concerned?
- 25:21Speaker 1: Am I concerned about a an atomic hurricane barreling down
- 25:28Speaker 1: on the East Coast, flooding our cities and leaving them
- 25:32Speaker 1: covered in radioactive debris? Yes, I'm a little bit concerned
- 25:41Speaker 1: is the word.
- 25:43Speaker 2: I did not realize because I have never seen these films,
- 25:47Speaker 2: but this is actually the plot of Sharknado.
- 25:49Speaker 1: Apparently, I've also never seen Sharknado and shame on the
- 25:52Speaker 1: creators of Sharknado. who have planted a terrible idea into
- 25:56Speaker 1: the mind of our feeble president. I do think nuking
- 26:00Speaker 1: the hurricane captures something essential about Donald Trump as a person,
- 26:04Speaker 1: because he doesn't believe climate change exists, but the worsening
- 26:08Speaker 1: hurricanes heading for us, he does have a plan to
- 26:11Speaker 1: make them radioactive and kill more people.
- 26:18Speaker 2: I would just try to put myself in the world
- 26:20Speaker 2: where you're just... You're a normal person. You're reading Facebook,
- 26:25Speaker 2: going through, seeing what's happening in the world. And you
- 26:28Speaker 2: catch a post from your uncle who has this idea
- 26:32Speaker 2: in response to some story about hurricanes coming. Do you
- 26:36Speaker 2: immediately call a family meeting to discuss this post? Or
- 26:41Speaker 2: what is the reaction to it? And how concerned are
- 26:43Speaker 2: you that This is coming from a person who actually
- 26:47Speaker 2: has the ability to launch said missiles, not just pontificate
- 26:49Speaker 2: about them on Facebook.
- 26:50Speaker 1: Yes, it does feel like it's the sort of thing
- 26:51Speaker 1: where several members of the family kind of speak in
- 26:53Speaker 1: hushed tones that, you know, obviously, you know, he's alone
- 26:56Speaker 1: all the time. You know, Sarah Beth left. He's just there.
- 27:01Speaker 1: You know, he's just there alone. He's having these crazy ideas.
- 27:04Speaker 1: I'm not sure what to do. I don't know how
- 27:06Speaker 1: much he means it. I don't know how much he
- 27:07Speaker 1: means it. We just need to check on him more.
- 27:11Speaker 2: Yes, we're going to draw up a chart, and one
- 27:13Speaker 2: of us is going to go there every other day
- 27:15Speaker 2: for the next month just to make sure that Uncle
- 27:18Speaker 2: Insane Person is fine.
- 27:29Speaker 1: Let's move on to domestic politics. The Republican primary has
- 27:35Speaker 1: entered a new phase. There is a new competitor. His
- 27:40Speaker 1: name is Joe Walsh, and he is going to bring
- 27:43Speaker 1: the fight to Donald Trump. Dan, how worried do you
- 27:49Speaker 1: think Donald Trump is and should be about former congressman,
- 27:57Speaker 1: Twitter persona, previous, quote, Obama is a Muslim, end quote,
- 28:03Speaker 1: type guy running against Trump?
- 28:07Speaker 2: I don't think Trump should have any fears about losing
- 28:10Speaker 2: the nomination. Um, I don't think there's any chance that
- 28:13Speaker 2: Joe Walsh is going to beat him. I mean, Trump
- 28:16Speaker 2: has a 96% approval rating or whatever from Republican voters,
- 28:21Speaker 2: the Republican party, just to make sure that he wouldn't
- 28:24Speaker 2: lose the nomination, canceled the South Carolina primary, which is
- 28:27Speaker 2: the primary where conservatives, you generally have the best chance
- 28:31Speaker 2: to knock off an incumbent. Um, it was problematic for, um,
- 28:37Speaker 2: George H.W. Bush back in the day. And so he's
- 28:41Speaker 2: not going to lose the nomination, and we shouldn't think
- 28:44Speaker 2: that that's going to happen. But I do think he
- 28:47Speaker 2: should be more worried about someone like Joe Walsh than
- 28:50Speaker 2: either William Weld or John Kasich. William Weld is a doofus.
- 28:54Speaker 2: He is a governor of Massachusetts. He was on the
- 28:57Speaker 2: third-party ticket last time. He has no constituency in America,
- 29:01Speaker 2: let alone the Republican Party. John Kasich... is an affable,
- 29:07Speaker 2: I guess, guy. He has some popularity. He did a
- 29:11Speaker 2: few things that were not terrible in Ohio. He's a
- 29:14Speaker 2: CNN contributor, but also no constituency in the National Republican Party.
- 29:20Speaker 2: Joe Walsh is the first person who is making an
- 29:23Speaker 2: attack on Trump from the right. That, at least, I
- 29:27Speaker 2: think is interesting and could have some political consequences down
- 29:30Speaker 2: the line. He was on He was on ABC this
- 29:34Speaker 2: weekend during the Sunday show circuit, and he attacked Trump
- 29:38Speaker 2: for not building the wall and not making Mexico. pay
- 29:40Speaker 2: for the wall. I was intrigued by that. I'm interested
- 29:44Speaker 2: to see where that goes, because that could have some
- 29:48Speaker 2: political repercussions for Trump down the line, not in a primary,
- 29:51Speaker 2: but in the general election.
- 29:53Speaker 1: So there was some effort on the part of Walsh
- 29:56Speaker 1: to get George Conway involved in this fracas. And to me,
- 30:01Speaker 1: that signaled that this is very much a publicity move
- 30:06Speaker 1: for Joe Walsh, because obviously getting George Conway involved is
- 30:11Speaker 1: not about appealing to voters in swing states. It's about
- 30:17Speaker 1: finding someone who will antagonize Trump the absolute most. You know,
- 30:24Speaker 1: I feel like there were two conversations happening on Twitter
- 30:27Speaker 1: about Donald Trump facing a new Republican challenger. One was
- 30:33Speaker 1: kind of a, I don't want to say openness, but
- 30:35Speaker 1: at least a willingness to say, well, it's good that
- 30:37Speaker 1: this person is doing this. It is good that a
- 30:40Speaker 1: former right-wing person, even a heinous right-wing person, is willing
- 30:44Speaker 1: to tell the truth about Trump, even if it's for
- 30:46Speaker 1: their own purposes, even if it's to build a brand,
- 30:48Speaker 1: even if it's ultimately to fund a right-wing campaign for
- 30:51Speaker 1: the House. And then there was, I think, a more cynical...
- 30:54Speaker 1: take when I think I largely agree with saying this
- 30:58Speaker 1: is a purely self-aggrandizing move to help one person gain
- 31:03Speaker 1: traction and find a way to make income in the
- 31:07Speaker 1: commentary economy we have built after we closed all the factories.
- 31:12Speaker 2: I think I take an even more cynical take on this.
- 31:14Speaker 2: This debate, the don't normalize Joe Walsh debate or the
- 31:20Speaker 2: don't normalize Joe Walsh argument has been led by Shannon
- 31:23Speaker 2: Watts of Mom's Demand, who is someone we support a
- 31:27Speaker 2: lot here at Positive American, really like. And she is right.
- 31:30Speaker 2: Joe Walsh is disgusting. He is a disgusting human being.
- 31:33Speaker 2: He dispels disgusting racist views. I think he, at one point,
- 31:38Speaker 2: was a Sandy Hook truther, obviously said horrible things about Obama.
- 31:42Speaker 2: Really a disgusting person. And we should not take his
- 31:45Speaker 2: conversion to anti-Trumpism seriously. Like, we shouldn't. The same thing
- 31:50Speaker 2: with Anthony Scaramucci, right? These are grifters who find a
- 31:55Speaker 2: market opening. They go into it to make money. And
- 31:58Speaker 2: when then that closes, they look for another one.
- 32:00Speaker 1: Scaramucci, Dan, Scaramucci wrote a book. He wrote a book
- 32:06Speaker 1: about Trump, a pro-Trump book in October of 2018. Like
- 32:11Speaker 1: it is one thing to have a change of heart.
- 32:15Speaker 1: You cannot write a book and then six months later
- 32:19Speaker 1: say the opposite of the book. That's too quick. Yes.
- 32:24Speaker 2: I mean, like I can almost buy someone who supported
- 32:27Speaker 2: Trump in the election under this idea that he would
- 32:31Speaker 2: somehow be a more serious president or would not, or
- 32:35Speaker 2: like that was a stupid position to have them. But you,
- 32:38Speaker 2: if you decided after a month or two of Trump
- 32:40Speaker 2: is president, like this is not a good thing. He
- 32:42Speaker 2: is even worse than we thought. And you can do it,
- 32:44Speaker 2: but nothing. He was just as bad in September of
- 32:47Speaker 2: 2018 or October, whatever. So much worth the book as
- 32:51Speaker 2: he is now. It was all part of a Scaramucci
- 32:53Speaker 2: grift to support Trump. And when that door closed, he
- 32:56Speaker 2: found another grift. It was anti-Trump, right? It's a better
- 33:00Speaker 2: way for him to get on television attacking Trump than
- 33:04Speaker 2: praising Trump. Walsh is the same way. My even more
- 33:07Speaker 2: cynical take on it is I agree Joe Walsh is disgusting.
- 33:12Speaker 2: I do not take him seriously. I do hope that
- 33:17Speaker 2: there are some segment of voters who are get to
- 33:23Speaker 2: see Joe Walsh's message, right? Who are conservative but have
- 33:28Speaker 2: questions about Trump. There are these universes of Republican voters
- 33:33Speaker 2: who could be driven away from Trump, maybe not to
- 33:38Speaker 2: vote for a Democrat, but maybe into a third-party camp,
- 33:41Speaker 2: or they may decide to sit the election out if
- 33:44Speaker 2: they were exposed to an argument about Trump, which no
- 33:46Speaker 2: one is making, and Walsh is making. So I do
- 33:49Speaker 2: think there is some political upside to it. But I
- 33:52Speaker 2: think we need to, we should be this way with
- 33:55Speaker 2: all of our, the sort of never Trump universe, right?
- 33:59Speaker 2: Which is just like, we may agree with what Bill
- 34:02Speaker 2: Kristol says about Trump now, but every other part of
- 34:05Speaker 2: Bill Kristol's, just because the broken clock has stopped in
- 34:07Speaker 2: the right place for right now doesn't mean we should
- 34:10Speaker 2: support these people. And I think Joe Walsh falls in
- 34:12Speaker 2: that category. But look, my imaginary super PAC would be
- 34:16Speaker 2: completely above board and not engaged in anything. But another
- 34:19Speaker 2: imaginary or real super PAC who was, showing some targeted
- 34:23Speaker 2: universe of conservative or Republican-leading independents a conservative anti-Trump argument,
- 34:27Speaker 2: I would be interested to see what impact that could
- 34:30Speaker 2: have in an election.
- 34:32Speaker 1: As always, we end this segment by wondering where our
- 34:36Speaker 1: billionaires are with the delightful above-board super PACs and less
- 34:42Speaker 1: delightful subversive super PACs that we say we don't want
- 34:45Speaker 1: but secretly do. One other note on what's taking place
- 34:49Speaker 1: on the right. Trump has... increasingly been directing criticism at
- 34:54Speaker 1: Fox News. I don't want to spend too much time
- 34:56Speaker 1: on this, but what do you make of this? He
- 34:59Speaker 1: was seemingly annoyed that Donna Brazile showed up on his
- 35:02Speaker 1: television because he associates Donna Brazile with a very overblown
- 35:07Speaker 1: attack he leveled against her and CNN for a long
- 35:10Speaker 1: time around debate questions for Hillary Clinton during the primary.
- 35:13Speaker 1: But it does seem he is in some ways frustrated
- 35:16Speaker 1: with the way Fox has been covering him. What do
- 35:19Speaker 1: you make of it?
- 35:20Speaker 2: I think he is feeling anxiety about, and I think it's,
- 35:25Speaker 2: I mean, it's economic. Trump is finally feeling the economic
- 35:28Speaker 2: anxiety that pundits have falsely projected on his voters. Yeah, sure.
- 35:35Speaker 2: He is, so I think there is these nerves and
- 35:38Speaker 2: he is trying to circle the wagons and this is
- 35:42Speaker 2: evidence that he watches Fox too much because Fox is
- 35:45Speaker 2: so pro Trump. You really have to watch it for
- 35:47Speaker 2: hours upon hours upon hours to find a glimmer of anti-Trumpism.
- 35:54Speaker 2: And because he's always watching it, he manages to find it.
- 35:58Speaker 2: You know, I would love to see some reporting on
- 35:59Speaker 2: how the folks at Fox are reacting to this because they,
- 36:03Speaker 2: they have hitched their wagon to Trump and he, and
- 36:07Speaker 2: like it helped them in 2016 to get on board
- 36:09Speaker 2: with Trump very early. Uh, And I don't know where
- 36:12Speaker 2: they would go if they left Trump, or if these
- 36:16Speaker 2: voters left Fox, but there must be, like, inside, you know,
- 36:20Speaker 2: I don't, there is not like there's a new, like
- 36:22Speaker 2: an actual true news division, but somewhere in Fox, the
- 36:24Speaker 2: people who keep the money flowing, I would love to
- 36:28Speaker 2: know what their reaction is to Trump attacking them. Like,
- 36:32Speaker 2: is it, like, how nervous does it make them?
- 36:35Speaker 1: Right. You know, it strikes me as, you he finds
- 36:40Speaker 1: someone who has said something that damages his ego in
- 36:43Speaker 1: some way, whether it's the head of the Fed or
- 36:46Speaker 1: it's Fox News. It does seem to me that targeting
- 36:48Speaker 1: Fox is one of those places where he can actually
- 36:50Speaker 1: be far more effective. I don't know what personally attacking
- 36:54Speaker 1: the chairman of the Fed will do other than put
- 36:58Speaker 1: a kind of battery acid panic in the stomachs of
- 37:02Speaker 1: his loved ones. But it seems as though he thinks
- 37:06Speaker 1: going after Fox is going to make them just a
- 37:07Speaker 1: little bit more circumspect before... They tell the truth to
- 37:13Speaker 1: the audience they respect so very much. Okay, let's move
- 37:16Speaker 1: on to 2020. This week is the deadline to see
- 37:19Speaker 1: who will make the September debate. As of right now,
- 37:23Speaker 1: 10 candidates have qualified. One candidate, Tom Steyer, is one
- 37:28Speaker 1: poll away. That could be something he hits while we're recording.
- 37:31Speaker 1: It could be something he doesn't hit. If Tom Steyer gets...
- 37:37Speaker 1: the qualifying poll, the fourth poll he needs. He already
- 37:40Speaker 1: qualified on donors. That will mean ABC will go to
- 37:45Speaker 1: a two-night debate with six on one night and five
- 37:48Speaker 1: on the other. Dan, I don't... Sometimes I go back
- 37:53Speaker 1: and forth. I obviously have a personal interest in there
- 37:55Speaker 1: being a one-night debate because Love It or Leave It
- 37:58Speaker 1: is on Friday in New York that night. But when
- 38:00Speaker 1: I actually think about it, whether or not there's a
- 38:04Speaker 1: kind of lengthier conversation... over two nights among smaller groups
- 38:08Speaker 1: versus one night in which all the candidates are on
- 38:11Speaker 1: one stage. I'm not totally sure which is better for
- 38:14Speaker 1: Democrats writ large. What do you think?
- 38:16Speaker 2: I have gone back and forth on this too. So
- 38:18Speaker 2: once the DNC, like this has been this lingering question
- 38:21Speaker 2: among a lot of people about if it was 11 candidates,
- 38:24Speaker 2: would they just add another podium in and just do
- 38:27Speaker 2: it in one night? And the DNC was specific last
- 38:29Speaker 2: week that they would make it two. And my initial
- 38:31Speaker 2: reaction was, ugh. Like I wanted to see, I want
- 38:35Speaker 2: to see you know, the leading candidates on stage. I
- 38:38Speaker 2: want to see Warren and Biden on the same stage
- 38:41Speaker 2: or Warren and Harris on the same stage. And so
- 38:44Speaker 2: you can compare them and maybe there will be some interaction,
- 38:47Speaker 2: but like that was my initial reaction. And then I,
- 38:49Speaker 2: there was like, I thought about it for a little
- 38:51Speaker 2: bit and which I probably should have done before I tweeted.
- 38:56Speaker 2: And I actually, Dan, I know, I know.
- 38:59Speaker 1: Don't do that to yourself. Hey, hey, you tweet whatever
- 39:02Speaker 1: you want without thinking it is 2019. Don't hesitate.
- 39:06Speaker 2: There are no consequences. But I now, in hindsight, think
- 39:12Speaker 2: that my two nights would be better. It is September
- 39:17Speaker 2: of the off year. We don't need Bloodsport, where we
- 39:23Speaker 2: have put the candidates on stage right now, and one
- 39:27Speaker 2: of the two frontrunners walks off. It's not the fucking Kumite, right? And, like,
- 39:30Speaker 2: it would be interesting to see at least one debate.
- 39:33Speaker 2: I didn't know what that meant. You don't know what
- 39:35Speaker 2: Kumite is?
- 39:36Speaker 1: What is that?
- 39:37Speaker 2: Have you ever seen the movie Bloodsport with Jean-Claude Van Damme? Oh.
- 39:40Speaker 2: It's a classic 80s cable movie.
- 39:44Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever seen Bloodsport all the way through.
- 39:46Speaker 1: I only know it as a movie Donald Trump watches
- 39:48Speaker 1: on his airplane, but fast forwards to the fights.
- 39:52Speaker 2: It's only like 90 minutes long and it's basically all,
- 39:54Speaker 2: it's very 80s. It's all fights in musical montages. It's
- 39:57Speaker 2: like an R & B, karate kid. Any dialogue, he's gone.
- 40:00Speaker 1: He's gone.
- 40:01Speaker 3: Yes.
- 40:02Speaker 2: But anyway, so I think it would be interesting to
- 40:05Speaker 2: have five or six candidates on stage together having a
- 40:09Speaker 2: longer conversation and hopefully ABC could you know, either extend
- 40:14Speaker 2: the number, you know, the length of answers or get
- 40:16Speaker 2: to more topics. And so I kind of think we,
- 40:19Speaker 2: if just hearing more from the candidates now would probably
- 40:22Speaker 2: be useful. I mean, so I re I rescind my
- 40:26Speaker 2: original tweet, but I will not delete it. Good, good.
- 40:30Speaker 1: And don't apologize ever. Dan, I have to say I
- 40:33Speaker 1: am shocked, but I think that I agree now. I
- 40:36Speaker 1: guess I, my, my actual view is it doesn't really
- 40:39Speaker 1: matter that much ultimately, but I do agree that that
- 40:43Speaker 1: I would rather see longer, more substantive conversations over two nights.
- 40:47Speaker 1: And I say that not because I think the substantive
- 40:49Speaker 1: debate will mean there's some more likely shakeup of who's
- 40:54Speaker 1: supported versus who's not, but because the kind of cattle
- 40:58Speaker 1: call debates we've been having don't seem to be moving
- 41:01Speaker 1: the needle that much anyway. And so a good conversation
- 41:05Speaker 1: is just a better outcome because we'll just hear more substance.
- 41:08Speaker 1: We'll have, uh, a richer, deeper policy conversation as we
- 41:11Speaker 1: move through these issues. The reason I say that is,
- 41:13Speaker 1: so John Harwood reported this in July, actually, that in
- 41:17Speaker 1: late April, a poll found that just five candidates, Joe Biden,
- 41:21Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg drew
- 41:24Speaker 1: 79% of the Democratic vote. Six weeks later, before the
- 41:27Speaker 1: first round of debates, it drew the same 79%. This
- 41:31Speaker 1: was from July. After the first round, just before the second,
- 41:33Speaker 1: a Quinnipiac poll showed that those five drew 78%. And
- 41:38Speaker 1: I went and looked today. That's basically where the vote
- 41:41Speaker 1: share is now. But over the course of these several debates,
- 41:45Speaker 1: the top five candidates have continued to be splitting around
- 41:48Speaker 1: 75 to 80 percent of the vote. Now, things have
- 41:52Speaker 1: moved about between those candidates. But this notion that getting
- 41:56Speaker 1: on the debate stage and finally having an opportunity to
- 42:00Speaker 1: be seen by millions more Americans will fundamentally shift the
- 42:03Speaker 1: dynamics of the debate. That just hasn't happened yet.
- 42:06Speaker 2: We're thinking about this, I think, in the wrong way,
- 42:08Speaker 2: which is we're seven, eight, nine months, whatever it is now,
- 42:12Speaker 2: from the Iowa caucuses. And the debates are the journey,
- 42:17Speaker 2: not the destination to a decision. So over the course
- 42:20Speaker 2: of time, they're going to get to see these candidates,
- 42:22Speaker 2: I think, 12 times between now and, I guess, through
- 42:25Speaker 2: the early primary contests. And people will get to make
- 42:28Speaker 2: their decision. They're learning a little bit more, both good
- 42:31Speaker 2: and bad, about all of these candidates, but And then
- 42:33Speaker 2: there will be an opportunity for the race to shift.
- 42:36Speaker 2: On Thursday, when John and I were having this conversation
- 42:39Speaker 2: about why the race hasn't changed, I went and looked
- 42:42Speaker 2: back at the polling from this point, 2003, which is
- 42:47Speaker 2: probably the most analogous Democratic primary to this one. And
- 42:51Speaker 2: Joe Lieberman was leading in the polls, and John Kerry
- 42:53Speaker 2: was in fourth, and Dick Karpart was in second or third.
- 42:56Speaker 2: And so there was, you know, like, we're still really
- 43:00Speaker 2: early in this, and people are learning, and They will
- 43:03Speaker 2: either shift among those five or they will move to
- 43:05Speaker 2: one of those other candidates at some point. And we
- 43:08Speaker 2: don't need a debate in the summer of the year
- 43:11Speaker 2: before to tell us who's going to be the nominee.
- 43:13Speaker 2: We just want people to learn more information.
- 43:16Speaker 1: Now, another debate that has been taking place inside the
- 43:21Speaker 1: Democratic Party is whether or not there should be a
- 43:24Speaker 1: climate debate this weekend. The DNC held a vote. The
- 43:29Speaker 1: climate debate lost. There will not be a climate debate,
- 43:32Speaker 1: according to the DNC. Dan, the activists are furious about this.
- 43:39Speaker 1: I think a lot of Democratic voters are angry about this.
- 43:42Speaker 1: A lot of the candidates have come out in favor
- 43:44Speaker 1: of a climate debate. Jay Inslee, I think, before he
- 43:47Speaker 1: dropped out, led the charge on this because he was
- 43:48Speaker 1: running on a climate platform. Why do you think the
- 43:52Speaker 1: DNC is at odds with activists and I think some
- 43:56Speaker 1: of the more energetic and fervent parts of the base
- 44:01Speaker 1: over a climate debate right now?
- 44:03Speaker 2: I think the DNC is, throughout all of this, doing
- 44:07Speaker 2: the best in a terrible situation. And so from their perspective,
- 44:13Speaker 2: as I understand it, the argument against... It's not an
- 44:16Speaker 2: argument against a climate debate specifically. It's an argument for
- 44:19Speaker 2: an endless series of debates that take the candidates off
- 44:25Speaker 2: the campaign trail and put them in a studio and
- 44:27Speaker 2: Because it's not just the two hours of the debate.
- 44:30Speaker 2: It's also the days of prep for the debate. And
- 44:33Speaker 2: they're trying to find this balance. When we ran in 2008,
- 44:37Speaker 2: there were dozens of debates. It was a huge time suck.
- 44:40Speaker 2: It was probably bad for the campaign. In 2016, there
- 44:44Speaker 2: were not enough debates. They overcorrected in 2016. So this
- 44:46Speaker 2: is sort of the just right approach they're doing. And
- 44:50Speaker 2: their fear is, if you say yes to climate, how
- 44:52Speaker 2: do you say no to guns? So let's say all
- 44:55Speaker 2: the activists who... after what happened this past weekend, El
- 44:58Speaker 2: Paso or Dayton or anything else, or mom's demand, or
- 45:01Speaker 2: everyone come together and say, we want to debate on guns.
- 45:04Speaker 2: How do you say yes to climate, no on guns?
- 45:06Speaker 2: How do you say yes to climate, no on a
- 45:07Speaker 2: criminal justice debate? And so they're trying to hold the line.
- 45:11Speaker 2: So I would make two points on this. One is
- 45:15Speaker 2: the campaigns are acting as if they have no leverage here.
- 45:18Speaker 2: And if the front runners, not Jay Inslee, who we miss,
- 45:23Speaker 2: but not Jay Inslee, but if Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris,
- 45:28Speaker 2: Sanders decided there was going to be a climate debate,
- 45:30Speaker 2: there would be a climate debate. In 2008, the front-running
- 45:35Speaker 2: campaigns of Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, who was a person
- 45:40Speaker 2: in American politics at one time, and the campaign managers
- 45:44Speaker 2: would help sort of navigate all the forums and debates together.
- 45:49Speaker 2: Because if one of them did it, all three of
- 45:50Speaker 2: them had to do it, and if none of them
- 45:52Speaker 2: did it, then it wouldn't happen. And so the frontrunners
- 45:54Speaker 2: could decide to have a climate debate, but they have
- 45:56Speaker 2: decided not to do that. And so it's the DNC's fault,
- 45:59Speaker 2: but right now a lot of the campaigns want to
- 46:01Speaker 2: have their cake and eat it too and say, we
- 46:02Speaker 2: are for a climate debate. But the DNC, you know,
- 46:05Speaker 2: hold me back. The DNC said we can't do anything,
- 46:08Speaker 2: but they could do something if they wanted to.
- 46:11Speaker 1: Right. It does seem right. The interest of the candidate
- 46:14Speaker 1: is to be for every debate humanly possible while hoping
- 46:17Speaker 1: some other external force prevents them from having to leave
- 46:19Speaker 1: the trail again and again. It's also true that there's
- 46:21Speaker 1: going to be a climate change forum. So that is
- 46:25Speaker 1: also an opportunity to hear all the different candidates on
- 46:27Speaker 1: this issue at length. But I do think, you know,
- 46:31Speaker 1: I think one of the problems people are having is
- 46:33Speaker 1: that there's a kind of objectivity to the rules, which
- 46:36Speaker 1: I understand, but just feels quite frustrating to people that,
- 46:39Speaker 1: wait a second, what are these qualification terms? Why is
- 46:43Speaker 1: Tom Steyer able to get so close, but someone like
- 46:45Speaker 1: Michael Bennett isn't? Like, I understand that these rules were
- 46:48Speaker 1: drawn up before there were candidates so that they'd be fair,
- 46:50Speaker 1: but is it actually serving the candidate's best. Do you
- 46:54Speaker 1: think overall the debate process this time has been working?
- 46:59Speaker 1: What do you think?
- 47:00Speaker 2: I just, I don't really know. Like there are obviously flaws, right?
- 47:06Speaker 2: The donor, the grassroots donor threshold seemed like a great
- 47:11Speaker 2: idea at the time, but it has become a world
- 47:13Speaker 2: where the campaigns have had to spend millions of dollars
- 47:17Speaker 2: at a loss to try to meet these thresholds. And
- 47:20Speaker 2: so there are unintended consequences to all of them. I just,
- 47:24Speaker 2: cannot come up with a better process, right? I don't
- 47:28Speaker 2: know what... Like, certainly just a non-grassroots donation number or
- 47:33Speaker 2: contribution number would be bad, right? So where you're rewarding
- 47:36Speaker 2: people who raise money from large contributors, that would be bad.
- 47:41Speaker 2: The polling should matter in some way, shape, or form because, like,
- 47:45Speaker 2: what would we have done? Like, it would have been
- 47:47Speaker 2: worse if there had not been a 20-candidate cutoff for
- 47:50Speaker 2: these first couple debates.
- 47:52Speaker 1: And.
- 47:53Speaker 2: we had three nights of debates, right? You're just getting
- 47:55Speaker 2: fewer eyeballs or less interaction. And so I don't think
- 47:59Speaker 2: there is an ideal way to do this. I think
- 48:01Speaker 2: this is the right way to do it. I would
- 48:03Speaker 2: be cautious about trying to overcorrect for some of the
- 48:06Speaker 2: criticism going forward to make it harder.
- 48:10Speaker 3: To get into debates.
- 48:11Speaker 2: I think that would be a mistake.
- 48:14Speaker 1: All right, we'll leave it there before we wrap up
- 48:18Speaker 1: another important development, uh, Dan, Sean, Sean Spicer, he was
- 48:24Speaker 1: a white house press secretary. This is a sort of a,
- 48:27Speaker 1: this is a job of great prestige. It is, um,
- 48:32Speaker 1: a job that has been lionized in film, in television,
- 48:39Speaker 1: the voice of an administration standing at that podium. People
- 48:42Speaker 1: work really hard to get that job. They achieve it.
- 48:45Speaker 1: They go on to, to incredible things. Uh, Do you
- 48:52Speaker 1: think Donald Trump was being sincere when he praised Sean
- 48:57Speaker 1: Spicer for going on Dancing with the Stars?
- 49:01Speaker 3: No.
- 49:03Speaker 2: I do not think Donald Trump was being sincere. And
- 49:06Speaker 2: I think he sent that tweet because he knew it
- 49:09Speaker 2: would make Sean Spicer's life harder. And torturing Sean Spicer is,
- 49:14Speaker 2: other than golf and watching Fox News, one of Trump's
- 49:16Speaker 2: few hobbies. Do you remember in the early days when
- 49:20Speaker 2: Sean Spicer was, A, when Sean Spicer still worked there,
- 49:23Speaker 2: and B, there was actually a White House briefing, that
- 49:26Speaker 2: Trump would clear his schedule, watch the briefing in his office,
- 49:30Speaker 2: and then demand that Sean Spicer come up there and
- 49:32Speaker 2: then give him basically question by question critiques, all while
- 49:37Speaker 2: making fun of the tailoring of his.
- 49:39Speaker 1: Suit First of all, I would take issue with the phrase,
- 49:44Speaker 1: clear his schedule.
- 49:47Speaker 2: I mean, he had to DVR at least two Fox
- 49:50Speaker 2: shows at that time. So something had to give.
- 49:53Speaker 1: To make one serious point about this before we go, though,
- 49:55Speaker 1: it is. So the one thing that was always fascinating
- 49:59Speaker 1: about Sean Spicer is when he was press secretary, he
- 50:01Speaker 1: kind of wore his pain on his face and in
- 50:04Speaker 1: his tailoring. But there was a kind of a gruesome
- 50:09Speaker 1: expression he would draw when standing at that podium because
- 50:12Speaker 1: of the space between the person he thought he was
- 50:14Speaker 1: going to be and the person he had to be
- 50:18Speaker 1: by defending Donald Trump, the kind of the distance traveled
- 50:21Speaker 1: between being press secretary for a different president and being
- 50:24Speaker 1: press secretary for this president. And it was fascinating to
- 50:27Speaker 1: see Spicer kind of do this round of press saying,
- 50:31Speaker 1: I just think this should be a politics-free zone because
- 50:33Speaker 1: there's still this desire to on the part of people
- 50:36Speaker 1: like Sean Spicer to be treated normally. That even now,
- 50:40Speaker 1: there's still this feeling, like they know deep down that
- 50:43Speaker 1: Trump is not a legitimate president in any meaningful sense,
- 50:47Speaker 1: that working for him will always have an asterisk, that
- 50:49Speaker 1: you're not a press secretary, you're a Trump press secretary.
- 50:52Speaker 1: And it seems to me that the response he's getting
- 50:54Speaker 1: to this is a reminder that as much as they
- 50:56Speaker 1: want that to be true, that's just not the case.
- 50:59Speaker 1: You can't evade responsibility and only take the parts you want,
- 51:02Speaker 1: like the fame and apparently the ballroom dancing.
- 51:05Speaker 2: What do you think the calculus was in Sean Spicer's
- 51:09Speaker 2: head to do this? Dancing with the Stars is a
- 51:13Speaker 2: refuge for B-list celebrities trying to resurrect their career. It
- 51:17Speaker 2: is where the cast of Jersey Shore goes when Jersey
- 51:21Speaker 2: Shore goes off the air. I presume Sean Spicer, just
- 51:26Speaker 2: on the Republican speaking circuit, selling access, has the capacity
- 51:30Speaker 2: to make money in other ways. Are you sure about that?
- 51:33Speaker 2: I don't know. That's interesting. There seems to be a
- 51:36Speaker 2: lot of money going around Republican politics.
- 51:40Speaker 1: Yeah, but think about that market. Who wants Sean Spicer
- 51:44Speaker 1: to come speak at their event? Normally, an administration, there
- 51:48Speaker 1: would be trade groups, nonpartisan organizations that might want somebody
- 51:52Speaker 1: from an administration to come give them the lay of
- 51:54Speaker 1: the land in Washington. People pay for that privilege. It
- 51:57Speaker 1: is a longstanding... This is basically a version of what
- 52:00Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton did when she gave high paid speeches. They
- 52:03Speaker 1: want the best person they can get to talk to
- 52:05Speaker 1: them about politics. But you might not want Sean Spicer
- 52:07Speaker 1: at your event where you talk about the latest in,
- 52:10Speaker 1: I don't know, like retail packaging or health administration because
- 52:13Speaker 1: he's so controversial. Nobody believes he had any influence. Nobody
- 52:17Speaker 1: believes he's still talking to these people. So all the
- 52:19Speaker 1: people trying to buy their way into Trump, they're going
- 52:21Speaker 1: to Lewandowski. They're going to other people. I wonder if
- 52:25Speaker 1: it's not more complicated than the book didn't sell. you know?
- 52:30Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, the book was interesting because he both man,
- 52:34Speaker 2: like he did, it is like, no one has played
- 52:36Speaker 2: their hand worse than Sean Spicer in this whole deal.
- 52:39Speaker 1: Right.
- 52:40Speaker 2: Like most of the people who got fired, got no
- 52:43Speaker 2: show jobs at Trump super PACs and are just making,
- 52:46Speaker 2: you know, just getting laundered Coke dollars put in their pocket.
- 52:48Speaker 2: Just did not saw it. Just, just basically they're being
- 52:51Speaker 2: paid to sign NDA. So Trump, so they didn't do that.
- 52:54Speaker 2: Or they wrote anti-Trump books.
- 52:55Speaker 1: By the way, just so people know, Coke dollars, I
- 52:58Speaker 1: thought you meant, I thought you meant Coke dollars. And
- 53:02Speaker 1: now I'm realizing you meant Coke dollars. Yes.
- 53:05Speaker 2: K-O-C-H.
- 53:08Speaker 1: Maybe the other ones.
- 53:08Speaker 3: Who knows?
- 53:12Speaker 2: Or they either wrote these typical conservative selling books that
- 53:17Speaker 2: Trump will tweet about, about the fake press or fake
- 53:22Speaker 2: Russian collusion, witch hunt, whatever else. Or they wrote tell-all's.
- 53:27Speaker 2: And Sean Spicer managed to do neither. He did not
- 53:30Speaker 2: write a book that pleased the Trump people, but he
- 53:32Speaker 2: also didn't have the courage to tell the truth either.
- 53:36Speaker 2: And so he's been living in this, I don't know,
- 53:38Speaker 2: some sort of sad purgatory of he can't figure out
- 53:42Speaker 2: how to get himself out of the box he put
- 53:44Speaker 2: himself in. But I want to be very clear, I
- 53:47Speaker 2: do not feel sorry for him. He is a grown,
- 53:50Speaker 2: sentient adult who made a series of choices that everyone
- 53:53Speaker 2: knew were wrong, and he knew they were wrong, and
- 53:55Speaker 2: he made them anyway.
- 53:57Speaker 1: Yes. It is almost as if he's been sentenced to
- 53:59Speaker 1: pushing his reputation up a hill. And then when it
- 54:04Speaker 1: gets to the top of the hill, it rolls back down.
- 54:06Speaker 1: So he walks back down to the bottom of the hill.
- 54:08Speaker 1: And it seems like he may have to do that forever.
- 54:11Speaker 1: Pretty good.
- 54:13Speaker 2: Seems fair. All right.
- 54:15Speaker 1: When we come back, we will have Dan's interview with
- 54:18Speaker 1: the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Ben Wickler.
- 54:29Speaker 2: We are here in studio in San Francisco with Ben Wickler.
- 54:31Speaker 2: He's the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party and a
- 54:33Speaker 2: former senior advisor to MoveOn.org. And most importantly, or maybe
- 54:37Speaker 2: not most importantly, but longtime friend of the pod, you've
- 54:40Speaker 2: been on many times to talk to us about activism
- 54:43Speaker 2: around the Affordable Care Act and so much other stuff.
- 54:46Speaker 2: And we are pleased to talk to you now about Wisconsin.
- 54:48Speaker 3: Very glad to be here.
- 54:49Speaker 2: Thank you, Ben. So you were here in San Francisco
- 54:52Speaker 2: at the DNC meeting, the National Committee meeting. How's that
- 54:56Speaker 2: meeting going? Is the party... We read a lot of
- 54:59Speaker 2: reports in the news that perhaps the Democrats are horribly divided.
- 55:02Speaker 2: Have you sensed that at this meeting?
- 55:03Speaker 3: So there's an autocomplete for the phrase Democrats in disarray.
- 55:07Speaker 3: And if you press D-E, then it just autofills the rest.
- 55:11Speaker 3: The reality is everyone I'm talking to is totally focused
- 55:14Speaker 3: on stopping Trump. And that is this central unifying goal.
- 55:18Speaker 3: There's a real sense that we have to fight for
- 55:20Speaker 3: state legislatures. We have to fight for the Senate. We
- 55:21Speaker 3: have to fight for the House. But it all connects
- 55:24Speaker 3: to the big fight. They're all linked to each other.
- 55:27Speaker 3: We know that the fate of candidates, Democrats, up and
- 55:29Speaker 3: down the ticket is connected to how we prosecute the
- 55:31Speaker 3: presidential fight and that there are reverse coattails when you
- 55:34Speaker 3: get local candidates. They pull out more voters. So I
- 55:37Speaker 3: think there's a real sense of shared mission. And a
- 55:39Speaker 3: lot of what's happening now, a year out, is the
- 55:41Speaker 3: kind of building blocks of how we assemble the coalition
- 55:43Speaker 3: that we need. How do we get the different structural
- 55:46Speaker 3: pieces in place? How do we get organizers trained? So
- 55:49Speaker 3: as an organizer myself, I think it's exciting. And I
- 55:52Speaker 3: think a lot of the conflict that is at the,
- 55:54Speaker 3: you know, you might read about in the news, misses
- 55:56Speaker 3: the fact that mostly people are just leaning to do
- 55:59Speaker 3: the work.
- 56:00Speaker 2: So you, as I mentioned at the top, your history
- 56:03Speaker 2: and your background in politics is in activism and organizing,
- 56:06Speaker 2: but mostly from outside of the party structure and oftentimes
- 56:10Speaker 2: in opposition to the party structure, pushing the party in
- 56:13Speaker 2: directions it may not want to go. How has that
- 56:15Speaker 2: background influenced your approach to now being in a position,
- 56:19Speaker 2: now you have the term Democratic Party Chair in your title,
- 56:22Speaker 2: which is about as inside as.
- 56:23Speaker 3: You can get. So I grew up in Madison, where
- 56:26Speaker 3: I live now, and in Wisconsin And growing up, when
- 56:28Speaker 3: I was in high school, I used to organize debates
- 56:30Speaker 3: between state legislators about issues affecting teenagers. And this one
- 56:34Speaker 3: state rep would always come and win the debates. And
- 56:37Speaker 3: then she ran for Congress. My friends and I volunteered
- 56:39Speaker 3: on her race. And Tammy Baldwin got elected to the
- 56:41Speaker 3: House and now the Senate. I've worked on governor's races.
- 56:44Speaker 3: My godmother is a woman named Ada Deer, who became
- 56:46Speaker 3: the first American Indian woman to win a congressional primary
- 56:49Speaker 3: when I was 11. That was the first race I
- 56:51Speaker 3: volunteered on. So I kind of grew up in the
- 56:53Speaker 3: Wisconsin progressive tradition, both in activism, which I did a
- 56:56Speaker 3: lot of, and also electoral politics. And frankly, in Wisconsin,
- 57:00Speaker 3: there's not much daylight between them. There's a tradition of
- 57:03Speaker 3: folks fighting for causes and social justice, moving in and
- 57:08Speaker 3: out of the electoral world. And I think I brought
- 57:10Speaker 3: that sensibility to the activism I did. I think one
- 57:12Speaker 3: of the things that at MoveOn we try to do is,
- 57:16Speaker 3: we are centrally an independent progressive grassroots group, but we
- 57:20Speaker 3: try to be in constant contact with elected folks so
- 57:23Speaker 3: we understand where the battle lines are, where the pressure
- 57:25Speaker 3: points are, And that kind of like the inside-outside game
- 57:27Speaker 3: was a big part of how all of us collectively
- 57:29Speaker 3: won the ACA fight. That was something where having just
- 57:32Speaker 3: really hyper-pinpointed intel about where Republicans could crack or if
- 57:36Speaker 3: there were threats to Democratic unity, that allowed us to
- 57:39Speaker 3: do our most effective work. So as state party chair,
- 57:41Speaker 3: I'm on the other side of that handshake, but it
- 57:43Speaker 3: is still a handshake, that we see ourselves in the
- 57:46Speaker 3: party as part of an ecosystem and a movement. We're
- 57:48Speaker 3: working with amazing groups, with organized labor, with grassroots groups,
- 57:52Speaker 3: everyone from high school students to there's a a group
- 57:56Speaker 3: called the Raging Grannies of seniors that sing at progressive events.
- 58:01Speaker 3: We're all working on it together. And we all get
- 58:03Speaker 3: that the stakes, you know, they ripple out from the
- 58:06Speaker 3: political system to every person's life. So to me, it's not,
- 58:10Speaker 3: there's no silos in this business.
- 58:13Speaker 2: So Wisconsin is the center of the political universe in 2020.
- 58:17Speaker 2: It is the state that all the data analytics types
- 58:20Speaker 2: predict is the person who wins Wisconsin is most likely
- 58:23Speaker 2: to be the next president of the United States. So
- 58:26Speaker 2: beyond the pressure that may put on your shoulders, I
- 58:28Speaker 2: think it's worth spending a little bit of time examining
- 58:30Speaker 2: how Wisconsin became that state because Barack Obama won Wisconsin
- 58:35Speaker 2: in 2008 by 13 points. He won it by seven,
- 58:38Speaker 2: almost seven points, I believe, in 2012. It is a
- 58:41Speaker 2: state in 2012 that Obama felt had such confidence would
- 58:45Speaker 2: be in his camp that he almost didn't campaign there.
- 58:48Speaker 2: I think we went once at the end, and I'm
- 58:50Speaker 2: not even sure we even ran an ad, to the
- 58:52Speaker 2: point where Hillary Clinton loses. Yeah. Small margin, but loses.
- 58:57Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 58:58Speaker 2: What has happened in Wisconsin in the last decade that
- 59:01Speaker 2: has changed the politics to the point it went from
- 59:03Speaker 2: a non-competitive blue state to a purple state that some
- 59:06Speaker 2: see to be potentially trending red?
- 59:08Speaker 3: Scott Walker and the Koch brothers. And they're a symbol
- 59:12Speaker 3: of a broader apparatus on the Republican side funded by
- 59:16Speaker 3: incredibly wealthy, often heirs, who are trying to protect the
- 59:20Speaker 3: ability to build a kind of aristocracy in America, who
- 59:24Speaker 3: have systematically gone after and dismantled the pillars of progressive power.
- 59:29Speaker 3: So everyone knows about Act 10. After Scott Walker came
- 59:32Speaker 3: into office, he was recorded saying his plan was to
- 59:34Speaker 3: divide and conquer, and he eliminated the power of public
- 59:37Speaker 3: sector unions to organize at a just giant cataclysmic fight
- 59:41Speaker 3: with 100,000 people outside the Capitol. But he pushed the
- 59:44Speaker 3: law through. He then did right-to-work law that further was
- 59:48Speaker 3: a body blow to organized labor in Wisconsin. He put
- 59:51Speaker 3: in extremely harsh voter ID laws that made it way
- 59:54Speaker 3: harder for people to be able to register to vote
- 59:56Speaker 3: and to cast their ballots. Something people don't know is
- 59:59Speaker 3: that he eliminated the ability of student governments to be
- 1:00:03Speaker 3: able to do mass registration drives on their campuses, and
- 1:00:05Speaker 3: he changed the voter registration rules. So instead of being
- 1:00:08Speaker 3: able to be deputized statewide as a voter registrar, you
- 1:00:11Speaker 3: have to get deputized by every municipality. And we have 1,852
- 1:00:15Speaker 3: municipalities that administer their own election rules in Wisconsin. Just
- 1:00:19Speaker 3: point after point after... Oh, and he... This is another one.
- 1:00:22Speaker 3: He changed the campaign finance laws to suit the profile
- 1:00:25Speaker 3: of his specific donors. So in Wisconsin... If you're a union,
- 1:00:28Speaker 3: you can give $ 12, 000 to a state party. If you're
- 1:00:31Speaker 3: an individual, you can make unlimited contributions. And there's a
- 1:00:34Speaker 3: billionaire named Diane Hendricks who writes literally seven-figure checks to
- 1:00:37Speaker 3: the Republican Party. All of that then, the state party
- 1:00:40Speaker 3: can make unlimited donations to state candidates and the gerrymander
- 1:00:44Speaker 3: at the same time. So in all these ways, they
- 1:00:46Speaker 3: took a progressive state. If you poll Wisconsinites about issues,
- 1:00:50Speaker 3: they're very progressive and put it into shackles. They... They
- 1:00:55Speaker 3: handcuffed the state to make it so that democracy couldn't work.
- 1:00:57Speaker 3: And the ultimate expression of this was in our state
- 1:01:00Speaker 3: assembly races last year. Democrats got 54% of the votes.
- 1:01:04Speaker 3: Republicans got 63 out of 99 seats. So democracy is
- 1:01:08Speaker 3: just broken in our state. And our one shot now
- 1:01:12Speaker 3: is in this election, simultaneously, we have to stop Trump
- 1:01:15Speaker 3: and If Republicans get three more seats in each chamber
- 1:01:18Speaker 3: of our state legislature, they get veto override supermajorities and
- 1:01:21Speaker 3: lock in the gerrymander for another decade until my seven-year-old's
- 1:01:24Speaker 3: graduating from high school. So we have to fight with
- 1:01:26Speaker 3: both hands.
- 1:01:28Speaker 2: And so 2018 was great around the country. Also good
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, right?
- 1:01:33Speaker 3: Great in Wisconsin.
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: Scott Walker gets sent home. But the numbers are interesting, right?
- 1:01:39Speaker 2: You obviously see, as you mentioned, the results of gerrymandering,
- 1:01:42Speaker 2: which is the state legislative results do not reflect the
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: popular will of the people of Wisconsin. But even then,
- 1:01:50Speaker 2: there are some warning signs in those numbers, right? But
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: there is an exception to those warning signs in the
- 1:01:55Speaker 2: sense that Tammy Baldwin, your friend since high school, did
- 1:02:02Speaker 2: incredibly well, right? And there is this large swath of,
- 1:02:05Speaker 2: or not, surprisingly large swath, I would say, of Baldwin-Walker voters.
- 1:02:11Speaker 2: And so- What do you– like what is either the
- 1:02:15Speaker 2: profile of that voter or what is the way to
- 1:02:18Speaker 2: turn a Baldwin-Walker voter? So someone who picked Tammy Baldwin
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: over– but did not pick Tony Evers, your governor. Like
- 1:02:25Speaker 2: what is the profile of that voter and how do
- 1:02:28Speaker 2: we reach that? How do you convert– turn a Baldwin-Walker
- 1:02:31Speaker 2: voter into a Democrat in 2020 or a Democratic voter
- 1:02:35Speaker 2: in 2020?
- 1:02:36Speaker 3: So the key thing that I think is true in
- 1:02:38Speaker 3: Wisconsin and is more true than people realize across the
- 1:02:41Speaker 3: country– is that swing voters and ticket splitters are not centrist.
- 1:02:46Speaker 3: They're conflicted. They have a bunch of different ideas that
- 1:02:49Speaker 3: don't cohere into a perfectly polished gem of ideological consistency.
- 1:02:56Speaker 3: They might have incredibly strong views in one way or
- 1:02:58Speaker 3: the other on guns and totally different views on health
- 1:03:01Speaker 3: care and totally different views on unions. They're human beings,
- 1:03:05Speaker 3: and they're beautiful and bewildering complexity. And in Wisconsin, the
- 1:03:10Speaker 3: key thing is showing up and speaking to and making
- 1:03:13Speaker 3: most salient the issues that people care about in their
- 1:03:16Speaker 3: own lives, their lived experience that connect with progressive values.
- 1:03:20Speaker 3: And so Walker was incredibly effective at breeding resentment. His
- 1:03:24Speaker 3: divide and conquer strategy carried right through in 2018. And
- 1:03:29Speaker 3: he was able to pull that off and pull a
- 1:03:31Speaker 3: lot of voters towards him, even ones who trusted that
- 1:03:34Speaker 3: Tammy Baldwin was going to make sure that the ACA
- 1:03:36Speaker 3: wasn't ripped away. Health care was a central, giant issue
- 1:03:40Speaker 3: in Wisconsin in 2018. And it was interesting because at
- 1:03:43Speaker 3: the national level, there was this fantasy that they could
- 1:03:45Speaker 3: go after Tammy Baldwin for endorsing Medicare for all. And
- 1:03:48Speaker 3: Leah Vukmir is a nurse, and she talked about preexisting
- 1:03:51Speaker 3: conditions all the time. But everyone knew because of the
- 1:03:54Speaker 3: giant fight over ACA repeal that one vote in the
- 1:03:57Speaker 3: Senate could mean that their health care would be taken away.
- 1:03:59Speaker 3: And they knew that Tammy Baldwin was on their side.
- 1:04:02Speaker 3: She also did a ton of stuff in rural Wisconsin.
- 1:04:04Speaker 3: She's been fighting tooth and nail. She did ads about
- 1:04:08Speaker 3: going after almond milk because we make real milk in Wisconsin.
- 1:04:10Speaker 3: And people get that. We have a dairy crisis in Wisconsin.
- 1:04:13Speaker 3: You might not get out of San Francisco alive if
- 1:04:15Speaker 3: you crash almond milk.
- 1:04:16Speaker 2: Don't you dare mention oat milk.
- 1:04:18Speaker 3: I will be out of this state by the time
- 1:04:20Speaker 3: this episode airs. But I will defend our dairy industry
- 1:04:24Speaker 3: to the last in Wisconsin. And by the way, we
- 1:04:26Speaker 3: have two dairy farms closing every day in Wisconsin. There
- 1:04:29Speaker 3: have been 1,600 dairy farms. keeping it 1,600. 1,600 dairy
- 1:04:32Speaker 3: farms have gone under since Trump came into office. It
- 1:04:36Speaker 3: is just a massacre.
- 1:04:38Speaker 2: And that is related to his policies in what way?
- 1:04:42Speaker 3: So one thing is the trade war, which is we've
- 1:04:45Speaker 3: got retaliatory tariffs. It's making it really, really tough. And
- 1:04:48Speaker 3: also farm equipment, all these things that farmers need to
- 1:04:51Speaker 3: be able to sell their products and keep their farms
- 1:04:53Speaker 3: running are under threat. A second piece is he's bailing
- 1:04:58Speaker 3: out and supporting and not doing anything about the incredible
- 1:05:01Speaker 3: level of consolidation. Big ag, you know, we have these
- 1:05:04Speaker 3: handful of farms that are buying up smaller ones and
- 1:05:06Speaker 3: it's tough to compete against them. His policies are all
- 1:05:08Speaker 3: tilted towards the super rich. Even the tax bill allowed
- 1:05:10Speaker 3: these companies to, you know, pull in tons of money
- 1:05:13Speaker 3: and be able to just gobble up the smaller farms.
- 1:05:16Speaker 3: People can tell in rural Wisconsin who's on their side.
- 1:05:20Speaker 3: And Tammy has been fighting her whole life. She's for,
- 1:05:23Speaker 3: you know, she went to West High School in Madison
- 1:05:24Speaker 3: like me. But she's shown up consistently at every step
- 1:05:28Speaker 3: of the way. And people can see that. And I
- 1:05:31Speaker 3: think that's one of our openings with Trump is that
- 1:05:35Speaker 3: people are experiencing real problems in their lives. They can
- 1:05:37Speaker 3: see that Trump is spending all day on Twitter not
- 1:05:39Speaker 3: doing anything about the threats that they face and making
- 1:05:43Speaker 3: that case and drawing that connection is part of how
- 1:05:45Speaker 3: we win.
- 1:05:45Speaker 2: So we did a poll a week or so ago
- 1:05:49Speaker 2: of Wisconsin. It was part of the Crooked Media Change
- 1:05:51Speaker 2: Research Polar Coaster Series.
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: Yes.
- 1:05:54Speaker 2: This was our first– we had done a couple of
- 1:05:55Speaker 2: primary polls with our first general election. We picked Wisconsin
- 1:05:57Speaker 2: for the reason I stated that it seems to be
- 1:06:00Speaker 2: the most important state and I think– an underpolled state
- 1:06:02Speaker 2: I think. Is it your sense– you were quoted in
- 1:06:06Speaker 2: the New York Times saying the general election is underway
- 1:06:09Speaker 2: in Wisconsin. And I know you guys– you're with the
- 1:06:10Speaker 2: party doing a lot of organizing strategies. I want to
- 1:06:12Speaker 2: hear you talk about that. But do you think the
- 1:06:15Speaker 2: rest of the party infrastructure understands, A, how important Wisconsin is?
- 1:06:21Speaker 2: And by party infrastructure, I don't just mean the folks
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: you met with at the DNC. But the super PAC universe, yeah,
- 1:06:26Speaker 2: the organizer, which is there's one state that we cannot win,
- 1:06:29Speaker 2: most likely cannot win the presidency without winning. Do people
- 1:06:32Speaker 2: get that fact?
- 1:06:33Speaker 3: People get it. Yes.
- 1:06:34Speaker 2: Are they acting on that fact?
- 1:06:36Speaker 3: They're acting on it. I think that the pieces are
- 1:06:38Speaker 3: coming into place. And I would say we need to
- 1:06:43Speaker 3: like find some way to push the accelerator through the
- 1:06:45Speaker 3: floor to make this happen. I met with a group
- 1:06:48Speaker 3: of high school Democrats in Waukesha. And every time they
- 1:06:52Speaker 3: log onto YouTube, they're seeing Trump ads. And what that
- 1:06:55Speaker 3: tells you is that Trump is coming for everybody. Or
- 1:06:58Speaker 3: they have terrible data.
- 1:07:00Speaker 2: I think it's probably the former, though.
- 1:07:01Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's probably the former. I mean, even
- 1:07:03Speaker 3: if they have terrible data right now, they're using their
- 1:07:05Speaker 3: digital ad campaign mostly to ID people. They're trying to
- 1:07:08Speaker 3: find every voter they can. They actually don't have a
- 1:07:10Speaker 3: message to persuade at all. As far as I can tell,
- 1:07:12Speaker 3: Trump's strategy is ID every possible supporter, get them all
- 1:07:16Speaker 3: to vote, and suppress everybody else. And it's not a
- 1:07:19Speaker 3: persuasion game. It is just getting people to... vote for
- 1:07:21Speaker 3: him or not vote at all. And, you know, our answer,
- 1:07:24Speaker 3: our response to that is a little more complicated. Like,
- 1:07:27Speaker 3: we certainly, you know, I would make the case to
- 1:07:29Speaker 3: a Republican that Trump is betraying their values and, you know,
- 1:07:32Speaker 3: it would make, you know, they should think twice about
- 1:07:34Speaker 3: whether they actually want to cast a vote for him.
- 1:07:36Speaker 3: But we also, we need to persuade and massively turn
- 1:07:38Speaker 3: out our base and ID tons of people who have
- 1:07:40Speaker 3: been bystanders to this whole thing. And, you know, if
- 1:07:43Speaker 3: you look in 2016, Trump and Clinton both got fewer
- 1:07:48Speaker 3: votes than five of the previous six presidential campaigns in Wisconsin.
- 1:07:51Speaker 3: There are a ton of people who didn't vote for
- 1:07:53Speaker 3: either of them.
- 1:07:54Speaker 2: Your point about fewer people voting for Clinton and Trump
- 1:07:57Speaker 2: than previous nominees points to two things, right? It points
- 1:07:59Speaker 2: to people who didn't turn out, right? But also points
- 1:08:03Speaker 2: to a group of people who voted third party, right?
- 1:08:05Speaker 2: So a chunk of Johnson voters, but also the Stein
- 1:08:08Speaker 2: voter margin or the number of Stein voters was larger
- 1:08:12Speaker 2: than the amount Trump won Wisconsin by.
- 1:08:14Speaker 3: That's right. It's about 30,000 versus about 22,000.
- 1:08:16Speaker 2: What's the Wisconsin party doing to target both those groups?
- 1:08:20Speaker 2: So first, non-voters in a state where, as you point out,
- 1:08:22Speaker 2: voter registration is incredibly challenging on purpose. But then also,
- 1:08:26Speaker 2: how do you persuade some of these third-party voters to
- 1:08:29Speaker 2: be Democratic voters in 20?
- 1:08:30Speaker 3: So the key thing in Wisconsin is you treat anyone
- 1:08:32Speaker 3: who's eligible as a potential voter, whether they're registered or not,
- 1:08:35Speaker 3: because we have same-day registration. That's the one thing that
- 1:08:37Speaker 3: Republicans did not manage to take away. So if you
- 1:08:40Speaker 3: find someone who might be able to vote, might be
- 1:08:42Speaker 3: inclined to vote for you, You can start a conversation
- 1:08:44Speaker 3: with them now as we're doing, find out what they
- 1:08:45Speaker 3: care about, and keep up that conversation all the way
- 1:08:47Speaker 3: through Election Day. And frankly, you advocated for just a
- 1:08:51Speaker 3: sustained digital persuasion campaign. I think that is a great
- 1:08:54Speaker 3: thing to do. It is also important to have a
- 1:08:56Speaker 3: multilayered like, two-way conversation with voters. And that means you
- 1:09:00Speaker 3: knock on their door, you follow up with a postcard,
- 1:09:02Speaker 3: you follow up with a text, you text back and forth,
- 1:09:04Speaker 3: you make sure they're getting emails and, you know, and
- 1:09:06Speaker 3: digital ads that are tailored to the conversation they had
- 1:09:08Speaker 3: at the door. And maybe, you know, the same person
- 1:09:10Speaker 3: follows up with them right before the election, makes sure
- 1:09:12Speaker 3: they're going to vote. That takes a level of kind
- 1:09:14Speaker 3: of organization and sophistication and data connected to your field program.
- 1:09:18Speaker 3: That's what we're building at the state party. to a
- 1:09:20Speaker 3: level that it's inspired by the neighborhood team model from
- 1:09:23Speaker 3: the Obama campaigns, but we're doing this already at a
- 1:09:26Speaker 3: scale that's never been seen before in the state. We
- 1:09:28Speaker 3: have hundreds of neighborhood teams across the state right now.
- 1:09:31Speaker 3: And if you do all that, you know, you have
- 1:09:35Speaker 3: to break out of just tapping the same people that
- 1:09:37Speaker 3: have been hit every time. There are doors where no
- 1:09:39Speaker 3: Democrat has ventured for a very long time in the state,
- 1:09:43Speaker 3: in part because, you know, data kind of deteriorated over
- 1:09:46Speaker 3: time and you never want to mobilize people who are
- 1:09:48Speaker 3: going to vote for the other side. But right now
- 1:09:49Speaker 3: when it's this early, you can talk to people and
- 1:09:52Speaker 3: just find out who they are and what they care
- 1:09:54Speaker 3: about and begin a conversation that can lead to a
- 1:09:56Speaker 3: vote down the road.
- 1:09:57Speaker 2: Is it a question of data deteriorating over time, which
- 1:09:59Speaker 2: is a larger problem within the party, but also a misunderstanding,
- 1:10:04Speaker 2: at least in 2016, of shifting coalitions? Like a lot
- 1:10:07Speaker 2: of people beyond just Wisconsin talk about being asked to
- 1:10:10Speaker 2: make phone calls at mobile phone banks or mobile text
- 1:10:13Speaker 2: banks around the country on Election Day. and getting a
- 1:10:16Speaker 2: lot of Trump supporters from a Democratic GOTV universe. And
- 1:10:20Speaker 2: there's clearly, even in Wisconsin, a group of people, there's
- 1:10:23Speaker 2: a chunk of Romney Clinton voters who have moved into
- 1:10:27Speaker 2: a different universe. Are you out there, are you trying
- 1:10:31Speaker 2: to just freshen the data, hitting every door so you
- 1:10:33Speaker 2: can get a sense of who people are because you
- 1:10:35Speaker 2: have the advantage of starting so early?
- 1:10:37Speaker 3: So, yeah, the coalitions did shift. I think any conversation
- 1:10:42Speaker 3: like this, you have to remember the 40-year blitz campaign
- 1:10:46Speaker 3: to poison people to Hillary Clinton that was the backdrop
- 1:10:48Speaker 3: to everything that happened in 2016. It was easy to
- 1:10:51Speaker 3: lose track of because people liked her being Secretary of State.
- 1:10:53Speaker 3: There were a lot of people who got freaked out
- 1:10:54Speaker 3: when she got closer to power. And that piece is
- 1:10:59Speaker 3: not on the table this time. They don't have that
- 1:11:01Speaker 3: head start with any of our Democratic candidates. And the
- 1:11:05Speaker 3: goal that we have in terms of, we call it
- 1:11:07Speaker 3: the bridge-building canvas. It's a deep canvas where we go
- 1:11:10Speaker 3: and talk to people at their doors. It's to It's
- 1:11:14Speaker 3: to find out what issues motivate them and find out
- 1:11:15Speaker 3: which way they're leaning and not assuming, not taking anyone
- 1:11:22Speaker 3: for granted and not writing anyone off. So in communities
- 1:11:25Speaker 3: of color and in rural Wisconsin and in the Milwaukee suburbs,
- 1:11:28Speaker 3: there are a lot of people who've zigzagged. There are
- 1:11:30Speaker 3: literally voters in counties that were Obama, Walker, Obama, Walker, Baldwin, and.
- 1:11:41Speaker 3: Walker, people who have cast votes one way or another
- 1:11:46Speaker 3: or like different people who come out one way or another.
- 1:11:48Speaker 3: And so in Wisconsin, we don't– this gets into the
- 1:11:52Speaker 3: weeds a little. We don't have partisan– We're all nerds here.
- 1:11:55Speaker 1: OK.
- 1:11:55Speaker 3: We don't have partisan voter registration. So when you register
- 1:11:58Speaker 3: to vote, you don't register with a party. We don't
- 1:12:00Speaker 3: have race on the voter file. So you have to
- 1:12:03Speaker 3: figure out how people identify racially and ethnically through other
- 1:12:06Speaker 3: means and through talking to them. We don't have partisan primaries.
- 1:12:09Speaker 3: We have open primaries. So you can't tell based on
- 1:12:11Speaker 3: which primary people voted on. And we have voter purges
- 1:12:15Speaker 3: that go on. But we have same-day registration. So when
- 1:12:17Speaker 3: people register, they're new in the data system. And all
- 1:12:20Speaker 3: that means the quality of data in Wisconsin, if you're
- 1:12:23Speaker 3: not actually talking to people and listening to them, it's
- 1:12:26Speaker 3: easy to lose track of who's who. And Republicans have
- 1:12:28Speaker 3: been obsessed with building really, really strong data infrastructure. So
- 1:12:32Speaker 3: that's an area where, you know, it caused me and
- 1:12:36Speaker 3: so many other people in 2016 who are knocking or
- 1:12:38Speaker 3: calling in Wisconsin to pull their hair out. We've got
- 1:12:40Speaker 3: to leapfrog them in this cycle. And that's part of
- 1:12:43Speaker 3: that is just the work of volunteers grinding it out,
- 1:12:46Speaker 3: talking to people one at a time and having actual conversations.
- 1:12:49Speaker 3: There's nothing that replaces that. You can't model your way
- 1:12:51Speaker 3: out of a problem like that. You have to talk
- 1:12:53Speaker 3: to people.
- 1:12:53Speaker 2: Have you seen in Wisconsin the obviously tremendous wave of
- 1:12:58Speaker 2: enthusiasm in 2018, people out knocking doors a year, more
- 1:13:03Speaker 2: than a year out of the election?
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:13:05Speaker 2: Has that sustained since then? Because obviously there was this
- 1:13:07Speaker 2: Supreme Court race not long after the 2018 election which
- 1:13:11Speaker 2: saw things– which the Democrats lost, which was sort of
- 1:13:14Speaker 2: a brutal loss over relative to the impact of a
- 1:13:18Speaker 2: Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin. It sort of saw things
- 1:13:21Speaker 2: shift back away from the surge of enthusiasm in 2018.
- 1:13:25Speaker 2: How is that working for you guys?
- 1:13:27Speaker 3: So the way I think about Wisconsin, Obama won twice.
- 1:13:30Speaker 3: We actually had trifecta control after 2008 for a hot second. 2010,
- 1:13:35Speaker 3: Coke machine moved in, Walker, you know, Republican trifecta control.
- 1:13:39Speaker 3: They started dismantling all our stuff. They were trying to
- 1:13:42Speaker 3: make Wisconsin an actually red state and they almost got
- 1:13:45Speaker 3: us over the cliff. And I think the like huge
- 1:13:48Speaker 3: uprising of people organizing across Wisconsin, it was like they
- 1:13:51Speaker 3: were able to grab a tree branch before they fell
- 1:13:53Speaker 3: off the edge and pull back up. We won the
- 1:13:55Speaker 3: governorship by 1.1 percentage points. We swept statewide races for
- 1:13:59Speaker 3: the first time since 1982, but they still had a
- 1:14:01Speaker 3: lock on the State legislature, they did a special session,
- 1:14:04Speaker 3: a lame duck session to grab power away from the
- 1:14:06Speaker 3: elected Democratic governor and attorney general, including to stop them
- 1:14:10Speaker 3: from changing how voter ID laws are administered. I mean,
- 1:14:12Speaker 3: totally intent on locking in their power. What happened in
- 1:14:16Speaker 3: the spring of 2019, this spring, is that Democratic enthusiasm
- 1:14:20Speaker 3: stayed high. We actually turned out more voters in our
- 1:14:24Speaker 3: Supreme Court race this spring than we did in the
- 1:14:25Speaker 3: previous spring, where Democrats won by 11 points. We won
- 1:14:28Speaker 3: a Supreme Court race in 2018 by a blowout. And
- 1:14:32Speaker 3: then we got more votes this time, a 7% increase
- 1:14:34Speaker 3: in turnout. The Republican side had a 30% increase in turnout. Essentially,
- 1:14:39Speaker 3: Republicans surged back onto the field. Their enthusiasm is going
- 1:14:42Speaker 3: to be red hot. And I think this, you know,
- 1:14:45Speaker 3: we're always looking for cracks in the Republican base. They
- 1:14:47Speaker 3: love Trump. The Republican base is enthusiastic about, I mean,
- 1:14:51Speaker 3: the intensity of their support is not as weak as
- 1:14:53Speaker 3: the intensity of our opposition. That's one of our strengths.
- 1:14:56Speaker 3: But it's not like the Republican base is fundamentally fractured.
- 1:14:59Speaker 3: He's consolidated it. And part of the reason why a
- 1:15:03Speaker 3: lot of Republicans were leery in 2016 is they thought
- 1:15:05Speaker 3: he wasn't right-wing enough. People forget that now. But, you know,
- 1:15:08Speaker 3: they were like, oh, he wants to protect Social Security
- 1:15:10Speaker 3: and Medicaid? Like, screw that guy. He's got them locked in.
- 1:15:13Speaker 3: He's given them their justices. He's given them their tax cut.
- 1:15:15Speaker 3: So we have to expect that they're going to turn
- 1:15:16Speaker 3: out a lot more voters than they did last time,
- 1:15:18Speaker 3: not fewer, even after all the horrors they've committed. So
- 1:15:22Speaker 3: I want to tell you about– we have this five-fight plan.
- 1:15:24Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes.
- 1:15:25Speaker 3: Please do.
- 1:15:26Speaker 2: So– So it's going to be a quiz about the
- 1:15:28Speaker 2: five fights afterwards?
- 1:15:29Speaker 3: It'll be a quiz about the five fights. I want
- 1:15:30Speaker 3: everyone to take out their notebooks or their note app
- 1:15:33Speaker 3: or whatever they notate on. Tattoo artists, prepare to write
- 1:15:36Speaker 3: this onto your customers' wrists or wherever people are getting
- 1:15:38Speaker 3: their political notes tattooed. So first we're gearing up for
- 1:15:43Speaker 3: the one year out. November 3rd of 2019 is a
- 1:15:46Speaker 3: Packer game. So we're going to have a huge canvas
- 1:15:48Speaker 3: on November 2nd. You never want to knock doors during
- 1:15:50Speaker 3: a Packer game. Note to everyone. people who might be
- 1:15:52Speaker 3: visiting Wisconsin. But we're going to do a big push
- 1:15:55Speaker 3: this fall. But that gears us up for next year.
- 1:15:57Speaker 3: So normally if you look at the graph of sort
- 1:16:00Speaker 3: of activist engagement, volunteer participation, it looks like a hockey stick.
- 1:16:03Speaker 3: There's like this sort of long rumble and then this
- 1:16:05Speaker 3: explosion at the end. Our strategy in Wisconsin is to
- 1:16:08Speaker 3: use moments before the election to build up so it
- 1:16:11Speaker 3: looks more like a series of steps with a curved–
- 1:16:15Speaker 3: it's not a very good metaphor.
- 1:16:16Speaker 2: It's an audio medium.
- 1:16:18Speaker 3: Yeah. Just imagine in your mind a wave that is–
- 1:16:21Speaker 3: Tilt it up and to the right. Yes. So the
- 1:16:24Speaker 3: first thing is our presidential primary, April 7th, is also
- 1:16:27Speaker 3: the date of our Supreme Court race in the spring
- 1:16:29Speaker 3: and our local elections. Mayors, county board supervisors, school boards,
- 1:16:34Speaker 3: all the stuff that Republicans have been focused on, Democrats
- 1:16:36Speaker 3: have been letting slide for so long. We want hundreds
- 1:16:39Speaker 3: of candidates to run for office. If you're listening right now,
- 1:16:41Speaker 3: we want you to run for office in the spring
- 1:16:43Speaker 3: of 2020. And we're going to engage. I've been talking
- 1:16:46Speaker 3: to presidential candidates about engaging in our local elections and
- 1:16:48Speaker 3: our Supreme Court election as they come to woo Wisconsin
- 1:16:51Speaker 3: voters for the primary. It's a dress rehearsal for the fall.
- 1:16:54Speaker 3: We want a full court press. We're going to knock
- 1:16:55Speaker 3: a zillion doors. We're going to make calls, send text messages,
- 1:16:58Speaker 3: write postcards, do all the things, figure out what works,
- 1:17:01Speaker 3: figure out where our strengths and weaknesses are, max that out,
- 1:17:04Speaker 3: have a step change. So we're looking like a fall
- 1:17:07Speaker 3: campaign in the spring. Second thing, we've got the National
- 1:17:10Speaker 3: Convention in Wisconsin. And conventions are huge productions. They're important nationally.
- 1:17:16Speaker 3: The key thing for Wisconsin is to leverage that and
- 1:17:18Speaker 3: make it a trampoline out of which comes this huge
- 1:17:21Speaker 3: surge of new volunteer engagement. So we'll have thousands of
- 1:17:25Speaker 3: people volunteering at the convention. We want all those people
- 1:17:27Speaker 3: to commit to volunteering for the election. And I think
- 1:17:30Speaker 3: there's a huge opportunity to train, to get people to
- 1:17:33Speaker 3: make commitments before they leave Milwaukee about what they're going
- 1:17:36Speaker 3: to do in the fall. So we'll come out of
- 1:17:37Speaker 3: that again with this huge surge of energy. That's fight
- 1:17:41Speaker 3: number two. So it's win the spring, leverage the convention.
- 1:17:44Speaker 3: Fight number three is our state legislative fight. As I mentioned,
- 1:17:46Speaker 3: super majorities are on the line and gerrymandering is on
- 1:17:49Speaker 3: the line. The districts where Republicans are attacking us, they're
- 1:17:52Speaker 3: the Milwaukee suburbs, they're places in western Wisconsin near Green Bay.
- 1:17:56Speaker 3: So those are areas where it's not the most Democratic
- 1:18:01Speaker 3: vote dense, but we have to contest every one of
- 1:18:03Speaker 3: those votes for the presidential as well as for our
- 1:18:05Speaker 3: state legislative fights. And it focuses the mind, gets people
- 1:18:07Speaker 3: to run for state legislature to know that the stakes
- 1:18:10Speaker 3: in Wisconsin are going to be so vast. So fight
- 1:18:12Speaker 3: number three is protect the governor's veto with a state
- 1:18:15Speaker 3: legislative and local fights. And we also want to run
- 1:18:18Speaker 3: progressives for prosecutor positions across Wisconsin. So there's a bunch
- 1:18:21Speaker 3: of great fights there. Fight number four is stopping Trump.
- 1:18:25Speaker 3: And nothing focuses the mind like holding the electoral college
- 1:18:30Speaker 3: in your hands. We're building the general election campaign without
- 1:18:33Speaker 3: a nominee. There's always this incumbent advantage. And part of
- 1:18:37Speaker 3: that comes from having an extra year to be able
- 1:18:39Speaker 3: to prepare your campaign. So- What the RNC did in
- 1:18:42Speaker 3: 2016 is it built a general election campaign before they
- 1:18:45Speaker 3: knew Trump was going to be the nominee. In Florida,
- 1:18:46Speaker 3: they had 62 field offices open for more than a year.
- 1:18:49Speaker 3: We're building that kind of campaign at the grassroots level
- 1:18:52Speaker 3: through our neighborhood teams and our field operation. And building
- 1:18:56Speaker 3: all that to stop Trump, that's fight number four. Fight
- 1:18:58Speaker 3: number five is we do all this so that we're
- 1:19:00Speaker 3: stronger for the future. Because 2022 cannot look like 2010.
- 1:19:04Speaker 3: If we win the White House this time and then
- 1:19:05Speaker 3: we have a wipeout in 2022, we lose the future
- 1:19:09Speaker 3: of our state. And it threatens everything we want to
- 1:19:11Speaker 3: do nationally and in my home state for the long term.
- 1:19:14Speaker 3: All of our statewide offices are up for reelection in 2022.
- 1:19:16Speaker 3: We'll have new maps for the House, the state Senate
- 1:19:18Speaker 3: and the state assembly. We have a Senate race that
- 1:19:20Speaker 3: will probably be open. Ron Johnson's talking about stepping down.
- 1:19:24Speaker 3: So we've got to come out of 2020 just a
- 1:19:27Speaker 3: finely tuned, totally aligned machine to be able to fight
- 1:19:29Speaker 3: the next fight. And if we do that, it might
- 1:19:32Speaker 3: take a cycle or two. But we can get if
- 1:19:34Speaker 3: we get new maps, we actually have a democracy in Wisconsin.
- 1:19:37Speaker 3: We could become a blue trifecta state. And then we
- 1:19:39Speaker 3: could make an inclusive democracy that starts representing and fighting
- 1:19:42Speaker 3: for everyone.
- 1:19:43Speaker 2: How quaint.
- 1:19:44Speaker 3: I know. It's an amazing thing. And we've seen the
- 1:19:48Speaker 3: examples like New York this year, New Mexico this year.
- 1:19:51Speaker 3: States that became actual kind of blue trifectas passed almost
- 1:19:55Speaker 3: the whole legislative agenda in one session. That's the goal
- 1:19:57Speaker 3: in Wisconsin, that we do that. And that's what Minnesota did.
- 1:20:01Speaker 3: They had a Democratic governor in 2010. While Wisconsin elected
- 1:20:05Speaker 3: Scott Walker, they had Mark Dayton elected. And then they
- 1:20:08Speaker 3: got trifecta control in 2012. And in 2013, all those
- 1:20:11Speaker 3: folks were sworn in and they passed a huge agenda
- 1:20:13Speaker 3: right away. And their trajectory as a state has been
- 1:20:16Speaker 3: so much more hopeful and optimistic than Wisconsin's next door.
- 1:20:19Speaker 3: It kills me that Minnesota has leapfrogged Wisconsin as a
- 1:20:23Speaker 3: bastion of progressivism. Wisconsin's supposed to be the progressive state.
- 1:20:25Speaker 3: So we want to get that back and shine a
- 1:20:27Speaker 3: light onto the nation about what's possible.
- 1:20:29Speaker 2: I always forget that the greatest rivalry in America is Minnesota-Wisconsin.
- 1:20:33Speaker 3: I never forget.
- 1:20:34Speaker 2: Yeah. Last question for you. As the Democratic Party chair,
- 1:20:38Speaker 2: I assume you're assiduously neutral. You love all the candidates equally.
- 1:20:42Speaker 2: So I won't ask you to pick.
- 1:20:43Speaker 3: Great.
- 1:20:43Speaker 2: I won't get you in trouble.
- 1:20:44Speaker 3: Great.
- 1:20:44Speaker 2: But I do want to ask you what you think
- 1:20:48Speaker 2: is the profile of a candidate who can win in Wisconsin, right?
- 1:20:53Speaker 2: Like what does it take? Because Wisconsin is a very–
- 1:20:58Speaker 2: it's a hard state that is getting harder for all
- 1:21:00Speaker 2: the reasons you mentioned. It is the prototypical example of
- 1:21:03Speaker 2: you have to do both, right?
- 1:21:05Speaker 3: You have to do both.
- 1:21:06Speaker 2: The question of do we just turn out the base
- 1:21:07Speaker 2: or do we persuade swing voters or Obama-Trump voters or
- 1:21:10Speaker 2: whatever else, the only way to get there in Wisconsin
- 1:21:12Speaker 2: is to do both. So what is the profile of
- 1:21:14Speaker 2: a candidate who can do both and therefore win Wisconsin?
- 1:21:19Speaker 3: What I will describe are actions that I think the
- 1:21:20Speaker 3: candidate should take.
- 1:21:22Speaker 2: Do this as carefully as possible. Yes.
- 1:21:24Speaker 3: So the first thing is showing up in all caps
- 1:21:28Speaker 3: in the richest sense of that term. That means– coming
- 1:21:32Speaker 3: to Milwaukee and coming to Madison, also coming to Northern Wisconsin,
- 1:21:35Speaker 3: coming to Western Wisconsin, coming to the Fox Valley, going
- 1:21:38Speaker 3: to all the different regions of our state, Racine and
- 1:21:40Speaker 3: Kenosha and Southwestern, you know, every part of Wisconsin and listening,
- 1:21:44Speaker 3: finding out what's actually happening in people's lives. And I
- 1:21:47Speaker 3: will say the Democratic Party of Wisconsin is here as
- 1:21:49Speaker 3: a partner. All of you presidential campaign staffers listening right now,
- 1:21:53Speaker 3: we will work with you to make sure you connect
- 1:21:54Speaker 3: with and hear from the people that you need to
- 1:21:56Speaker 3: hear from and be able to talk about the issues
- 1:21:58Speaker 3: that they're facing. I think the The biggest fallacy in
- 1:22:02Speaker 3: democratic politics is the idea that you come up with
- 1:22:05Speaker 3: a message through introspection. You don't come up with a
- 1:22:08Speaker 3: message by thinking about what would make sense to you
- 1:22:09Speaker 3: in your own head. You do it by talking to
- 1:22:11Speaker 3: actual people and learning and being able to reflect back
- 1:22:13Speaker 3: to them about what's happening in their lives. People who
- 1:22:15Speaker 3: win in Wisconsin show up, they listen, and they connect.
- 1:22:18Speaker 3: And it doesn't mean trimming your sails ideologically or swinging
- 1:22:24Speaker 3: for the fences necessarily. It means showing that you are
- 1:22:26Speaker 3: on people's side. It's a populous state. It's a state
- 1:22:29Speaker 3: that has a kind of an independent, almost pocket tradition
- 1:22:34Speaker 3: that stretches back more than a century. Fighting Bob La
- 1:22:37Speaker 3: Follette is still the icon in Wisconsin. He had the
- 1:22:40Speaker 3: progressive party. He was like, you know, outside the party structure,
- 1:22:43Speaker 3: but he fought for people. He fought for change. He
- 1:22:45Speaker 3: fought for farmers and for people in cities. The sense
- 1:22:48Speaker 3: of having a fighter who actually cares and who actually
- 1:22:52Speaker 3: comes through and listens and takes up the mantle, that's
- 1:22:55Speaker 3: the key thing for our state. That's what wins every time.
- 1:22:57Speaker 3: That's what President Obama did in our state. And I
- 1:23:00Speaker 3: think it's the sense of distance or disconnection is the
- 1:23:04Speaker 3: thing that maybe kills us the most. So we are
- 1:23:06Speaker 3: rolling out the red carpet. And I will also say
- 1:23:09Speaker 3: anyone who's listening right now can help make this happen.
- 1:23:12Speaker 3: So the thing that is most vital for us right
- 1:23:15Speaker 3: now is people becoming recurring donors to the state party
- 1:23:18Speaker 3: so we can actually hire and budget based on those contributions.
- 1:23:20Speaker 3: I love big bursts of money. But if you go
- 1:23:23Speaker 3: to wisdems.org slash donate and become a recurring donor, makes
- 1:23:27Speaker 3: a giant difference to build the kind of infrastructure we need.
- 1:23:30Speaker 3: And then go to wisdom.org slash volunteer, because whether you're
- 1:23:33Speaker 3: in Wisconsin or anywhere in the country, we're going to
- 1:23:35Speaker 3: need folks making calls to fill door-to-door volunteer shifts. We're
- 1:23:37Speaker 3: going to need those text messages to follow up with people.
- 1:23:40Speaker 3: All that work is stuff that folks can do from
- 1:23:42Speaker 3: across the country to support the organizing we're doing in
- 1:23:44Speaker 3: the state. We are all honorary cheeseheads now. This is
- 1:23:49Speaker 3: an all-hands-on Wisconsin moment. So I'm grateful that folks get
- 1:23:53Speaker 3: the urgency of it. We've got to translate the anxiety
- 1:23:56Speaker 3: that you feel when you see those push alerts on
- 1:23:57Speaker 3: your phone into action to win the state. If we
- 1:23:59Speaker 3: win Wisconsin, we win the White House.
- 1:24:02Speaker 2: Ben, thank you so much. Good luck with everything. And
- 1:24:04Speaker 2: I'm confident we will be talking many times between now
- 1:24:07Speaker 2: and when we're all waiting late into the evening on
- 1:24:09Speaker 2: election night for the votes from Waukesha County.
- 1:24:12Speaker 3: Thanks so much, Dan. Appreciate it.
- 1:24:16Speaker 1: What an interview, Dan.
- 1:24:17Speaker 2: It was amazing.
- 1:24:18Speaker 1: Join us on Thursday. It'll be me and Alyssa Mastromonaco.
- 1:24:21Speaker 2: What else? That's the pot everyone wants.
- 1:24:24Speaker 1: Finally, people are saying to themselves at the gym, on
- 1:24:26Speaker 1: the toilet, or in their cars, wherever you get this.
- 1:24:30Speaker 2: Bye, Dan.
- 1:24:31Speaker 1: Have a great week.
- 1:24:31Speaker 2: Have a great break. Bye, John.
- 1:24:34Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a product of Crooked Media.
- 1:24:36Speaker 2: The show is produced by Michael Martinez. It's mixed and
- 1:24:38Speaker 2: edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer.
- 1:24:42Speaker 1: Thanks to Caroline Reston, Tanya Somanator, and Katie Long for
- 1:24:45Speaker 1: production support, and to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Nar Melkonian,
- 1:24:49Speaker 1: and Milo Kim, who film and upload these bad boys
- 1:24:52Speaker 1: every week.