Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The State of the 2020 NFL Season

Transcript

The State of the 2020 NFL Season · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:12
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer at the Action Network.
0:18
Speaker 1: This week a little Corona, just a little little bit
0:23
Speaker 1: of Corona. Mostly what do professional gamblers do when there
0:29
Speaker 1: is nothing to bet on? How do they live? How
0:34
Speaker 1: do they make their living? Have they stocked away money?
0:37
Speaker 1: Have they thought about what life would be like without sports?
0:41
Speaker 1: Plus what are we thinking about for futures for the NFL?
0:46
Speaker 1: Will there be an NFL? All that and more with
0:49
Speaker 1: two of my favorite podcast guests of all time, Darn
0:54
Speaker 1: Revel from the Action Network and Professional Better from New
0:58
Speaker 1: Jersey sign Then Hunter Simon, what's going on, brother? You've
1:05
Speaker 1: been traveling, so you're self quarantining. Tell the world where
1:09
Speaker 1: you've been and what you've been doing. Usually the game
1:12
Speaker 1: plan every year is as soon as the Super Bowl ends,
1:15
Speaker 1: I like to just get away. I mean just a
1:17
Speaker 1: break from because I don't I'm not following other sports.
1:20
Speaker 1: I'm mainly just following the football during the season, and
1:22
Speaker 1: it's just a day and every day you're preppering, you're
1:25
Speaker 1: getting ready for the weekend and all the games. So
1:27
Speaker 1: as soon as the season ends, I always take a
1:29
Speaker 1: trip and this year I went to Maui and I
1:33
Speaker 1: think I realized this was more serious than we were
1:35
Speaker 1: people are taking it because when I landed in l
1:37
Speaker 1: a X from I Connect, every person there had a
1:39
Speaker 1: mask on, and when I'm going through Philadelphia and no
1:43
Speaker 1: one had a mask on. So it's kind of funny
1:46
Speaker 1: just seeing how different we were handling this in early
1:48
Speaker 1: February than over there. Uh So, basically, when I get back,
1:51
Speaker 1: it's usually for March Madness because like just like everyone else,
1:55
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a degenerate gambler. I love I love them
1:58
Speaker 1: football ends because I can just have fun but another
2:00
Speaker 1: sports and not really I'm not putting that much steak
2:03
Speaker 1: into it. I'm just doing just having fun like everyone else,
2:05
Speaker 1: like regular people. And when I got back, I think
2:09
Speaker 1: that was in the next day they shut it all
2:11
Speaker 1: down all sports, um, which I think everyone everyone's been shocked.
2:16
Speaker 1: I mean, it was necessary and it was probably well overdue,
2:20
Speaker 1: but I think that's when reality really said him with
2:22
Speaker 1: most most people that wow, this is this is pretty serious.
2:25
Speaker 1: Now wait a second, and Darren, you should weigh in this.
2:29
Speaker 1: Two you were in Maui for six weeks. No, no,
2:34
Speaker 1: I wish I lived that good of the life. I
2:37
Speaker 1: came back and then I went down to booker Vers Town.
2:41
Speaker 1: All right, that makes so much more sense because if
2:44
Speaker 1: you went to Maui at the right after the super
2:47
Speaker 1: Bowl and didn't come back until when March Madness was
2:49
Speaker 1: supposed to be, then I would have thought, oh my god,
2:52
Speaker 1: this guy is even a bigger player than I thought
2:55
Speaker 1: he was. Yeah, yeah, some day in the future. But
3:00
Speaker 1: now yet, my friend, Darren, how much did you miss Simon?
3:04
Speaker 1: I missed her energy. I mean, listen, I'm a I'm
3:07
Speaker 1: a real social person. I mean I like relationships. I
3:10
Speaker 1: don't want to like virtual or zoom relationships. So this
3:14
Speaker 1: is uh in the scheme of first world problems. I'm
3:17
Speaker 1: fine and healthy. So is my family. Not being in
3:19
Speaker 1: the office and not talking to people and not bothering
3:22
Speaker 1: people bothers me. I will tell you that the three
3:25
Speaker 1: things I have always feared most, and Simon, you might
3:30
Speaker 1: be able to relate to this a little bit as
3:31
Speaker 1: someone whose money is sort of always in play always
3:34
Speaker 1: throughout my life since I had since I got married
3:36
Speaker 1: and had kids, were everyone being healthy or them being
3:41
Speaker 1: unhealthy and me being helpless to respond in anyway. Something
3:46
Speaker 1: happening to my business in a catastrophic way, whatever business
3:50
Speaker 1: I was in, that would make it impossible for me
3:53
Speaker 1: to um make a living. This is interrrational fear that
3:57
Speaker 1: I think parents have, which is my kids five creating.
4:03
Speaker 1: When you have kids, you open a five twenty nine,
4:05
Speaker 1: you are thinking eighteen years is forever, but college is
4:09
Speaker 1: expensive and as it goes, sort of the years go on.
4:12
Speaker 1: If you were lucky enough to sort of have a
4:14
Speaker 1: job where you can put money away, or you get
4:16
Speaker 1: gifts from family that are towards the five twenty nine,
4:19
Speaker 1: like you see it grow and you get to a
4:21
Speaker 1: point in your life like I am with a kid
4:23
Speaker 1: who's sixteen, were like, you're feeling semi comfortable enough that
4:29
Speaker 1: is in a place where you no longer have great
4:32
Speaker 1: fears about how much college is going to cost. Honestly,
4:36
Speaker 1: one of the reasons I left ESPN to take a
4:37
Speaker 1: job at Action is because I felt like thee was
4:39
Speaker 1: in really good shape and it wasn't gonna matter, Like
4:42
Speaker 1: over the next couple of years, I was gonna be
4:43
Speaker 1: able to pay for whatever college my kids wanted to
4:45
Speaker 1: go to. Uh, Like in early March or the middle
4:48
Speaker 1: of this thing, Trump says we're going to open it Easter,
4:51
Speaker 1: and that night was the worst night's sleep of my
4:54
Speaker 1: life because all of a sudden there was going to
4:56
Speaker 1: be people running around with no social distancing. So God
4:59
Speaker 1: for bid, something happens to someone in my family and
5:02
Speaker 1: they need a hospital and can't go there because it's
5:04
Speaker 1: too crowded. We don't know like when sports is coming back,
5:08
Speaker 1: but social distancing could be the lack of social distancing
5:11
Speaker 1: would make it worse, And so we don't know when
5:13
Speaker 1: action can sort of fully realize it's full potential again,
5:17
Speaker 1: and the stock market is creating and I'm watching my
5:19
Speaker 1: kids Factory nine get laid to waste again. Some of
5:23
Speaker 1: these are high class problems, champagne problems, but some of
5:25
Speaker 1: them are problems everyone has. So, Darren, when you're talking
5:28
Speaker 1: about like not being able to communicate and connect to me,
5:31
Speaker 1: that is on sort of the same plane as like
5:34
Speaker 1: these things, where like that's what the distancing is doing.
5:37
Speaker 1: It kind of makes you a little bit crazy. Yeah,
5:39
Speaker 1: you know, the interesting thing is that the most common
5:42
Speaker 1: question I've gotten on radio interviews is, you know, how
5:45
Speaker 1: bad is the sports industry? How is the sports industry
5:49
Speaker 1: going to recover? And I keep reminding people that the
5:53
Speaker 1: sports industry is just a very small part of everything
5:57
Speaker 1: that's going on. If we don't have games until December
6:02
Speaker 1: or something like that, I mean that really means our
6:06
Speaker 1: economy for the most part is not working. So yeah,
6:10
Speaker 1: people can work from home, but um, this is part
6:14
Speaker 1: of everything that's going on, and and it is just Uh.
6:19
Speaker 1: I've recently started to think about, well, how could we
6:22
Speaker 1: get back, How could we get back with crowds, how
6:25
Speaker 1: could we get back with with sports books. I just
6:29
Speaker 1: talked to Ja Cornegie for a story we'll have up
6:32
Speaker 1: uh and you know, at at the super Book, and
6:35
Speaker 1: he said they have started to build out a a
6:39
Speaker 1: manual for coming back. And I said, what does that
6:43
Speaker 1: consist of? It consists of a new capacity for the casino.
6:47
Speaker 1: There can't be people standing back by the stools like
6:51
Speaker 1: they used to in in Vegas. Is biggest uh sports book?
6:57
Speaker 1: Uh it it includes taking out every other chair, It
7:02
Speaker 1: includes various things like they had the couches before, and
7:07
Speaker 1: do they have to change the actual furniture construction. I
7:12
Speaker 1: mean it is amazing to think can we get back?
7:16
Speaker 1: But then the next step is what are we back?
7:19
Speaker 1: As right? And I think I think people to need
7:24
Speaker 1: to like come with terms that this isn't something that
7:28
Speaker 1: just because we've we've spent a month or two here
7:30
Speaker 1: just hanging out at home, that this is just gonna
7:32
Speaker 1: go away. Like this is something we're gonna have to
7:34
Speaker 1: get used to live with and things are just gonna
7:36
Speaker 1: be different. But I do have faith that the NFL
7:39
Speaker 1: that they're by far the craziest league, and who knows
7:43
Speaker 1: if they care the least about their players, but they
7:45
Speaker 1: definitely they definitely do shady things. And I think that
7:48
Speaker 1: of all the leagues, I had the biggest faith in
7:50
Speaker 1: the NFL. Not if they start on time, but if
7:53
Speaker 1: they start in November, we're gonna they'll be playing football
7:56
Speaker 1: until March April. They don't care. But these owners, they
7:59
Speaker 1: seem like they're gonna, they're they're set to get football.
8:02
Speaker 1: It's so funny you say it, Simon. I said the
8:06
Speaker 1: same thing, uh to some folks at Action today, Like
8:11
Speaker 1: we look, we all desperately need as an industry, we
8:14
Speaker 1: desperately need football is a betting industry, is a betting business.
8:17
Speaker 1: We desperately need football. That is sort of I think
8:21
Speaker 1: the north star that we're all pointing to when we
8:24
Speaker 1: think about getting our businesses up and running again. Um.
8:28
Speaker 1: And the one thing I have faith in is that
8:32
Speaker 1: the NFL is the most mercenary of the league's and
8:35
Speaker 1: the owners there have so much invested in their teams
8:39
Speaker 1: and billion dollar stadiums in ways that are different than
8:42
Speaker 1: anything else. And um, they will find a way. If
8:46
Speaker 1: it takes buying a Caribbean island that is uninhabited and
8:52
Speaker 1: building a stadium right now, and building a hotel right
8:55
Speaker 1: now that can house every single person it takes to
8:59
Speaker 1: pull off NFL games for thirty two teams, They're going
9:03
Speaker 1: to figure that part out. That's I have faith in that.
9:07
Speaker 1: When it happens, I don't know, but I have a
9:09
Speaker 1: hundred percent faith that the NFL will be played at
9:12
Speaker 1: some point this year as well. I just think we're
9:15
Speaker 1: all hoping the best. Obviously, we're all in this business.
9:17
Speaker 1: Like I have good friends guys I work with who
9:21
Speaker 1: right now, obviously they may have put all Like most
9:23
Speaker 1: of these guys are pros, they don't have all the
9:25
Speaker 1: eggs in the basket they have literally they're playing with
9:27
Speaker 1: a very small percentage of what they have to play
9:29
Speaker 1: with it just because they're always long term players, but
9:33
Speaker 1: I mean all these guys. I mean they're just getting ready.
9:35
Speaker 1: Most of these guys, they're just building up all the
9:37
Speaker 1: data for their NBA season, for their hockey season, get
9:39
Speaker 1: ready for the playoffs, which is a big money maker
9:41
Speaker 1: in those two sports. And to see it all fall apart.
9:44
Speaker 1: These these guys aren't I wouldn't say hurt financially yet,
9:48
Speaker 1: but I would say that a lot of them. A
9:50
Speaker 1: lot of these guys, the way they clean money is
9:51
Speaker 1: through stocks, so a lot of them lost a ton
9:53
Speaker 1: of money in stock where That's where I'm sure most
9:56
Speaker 1: Americans are hurt right now. What would it take for
10:03
Speaker 1: either of you to go to a stadium on September one?
10:09
Speaker 1: You couldn't pay me to go. I feel like it's
10:11
Speaker 1: too early because we don't know what this thing does
10:13
Speaker 1: to people and and all this other stuff. But it
10:15
Speaker 1: just seems like we, I think everyone's starting to realize
10:18
Speaker 1: that life, it just isn't going to be the same
10:20
Speaker 1: it was what it was before until there's a vaccine
10:23
Speaker 1: and we know that you can't catch this thing twice
10:25
Speaker 1: or anything like that. I just can't see them having
10:28
Speaker 1: fans this whole season. What do you think that does
10:31
Speaker 1: to betting. I watched the Raptors Sixers Game six on
10:36
Speaker 1: YouTube from the playoffs last year. I watched it with
10:39
Speaker 1: my thirteen year old, and that was one where Kauai
10:42
Speaker 1: hit that jumper from the corner and it looks like
10:45
Speaker 1: he's swallowed by the crowd. And the fourth quarter of
10:48
Speaker 1: that game is so emotional, and it's in Philly and
10:52
Speaker 1: they're chanting defense, defense the whole time, and it feels
10:55
Speaker 1: like everybody is on top of the players, on top
10:57
Speaker 1: of the players game, and I was thinking, think about,
11:01
Speaker 1: I don't know that we'll ever see this again, and
11:03
Speaker 1: I wonder how much of an impact that has unvetting, Like,
11:06
Speaker 1: how much does the emotional element for you Simon as
11:09
Speaker 1: you think about this is a better how much are
11:11
Speaker 1: you gonna have to adjust for something like that? You
11:15
Speaker 1: can make it justice. But the funniest thing to me
11:17
Speaker 1: is gonna be if football does come back. Like a
11:19
Speaker 1: lot of the guys I work for them talk to,
11:21
Speaker 1: they do they use football like I do with off season,
11:24
Speaker 1: like they might bet on it for fun or bet
11:27
Speaker 1: a little bit here and there on it, but football
11:29
Speaker 1: usually is they're off season and where they're getting ready
11:31
Speaker 1: for m B a or an these other sports, and
11:33
Speaker 1: it's just funny that they were saying that when it comes,
11:35
Speaker 1: if it comes back, I just think it would be
11:37
Speaker 1: such a huge amount of money will be coming in
11:40
Speaker 1: on football that someone like me a pro it's the
11:43
Speaker 1: best because, like as we've seen since it's become legalized,
11:46
Speaker 1: these numbers get these these these numbers are shoot up
11:50
Speaker 1: so high that it's it's really funny because the public side,
11:55
Speaker 1: they just don't learn their lessons, where just like this
11:57
Speaker 1: past season where the Ravens, I think there were temps,
12:01
Speaker 1: they ended up being like a ten point nine and
12:02
Speaker 1: a half point favorite versus the Titans, And if it
12:06
Speaker 1: wasn't public betting, like a Vegas was hanging that line,
12:08
Speaker 1: they probably would have kept it at seven or six
12:10
Speaker 1: and a half. But now with the amount of money
12:12
Speaker 1: that's coming in, it's just everything is really gonna be
12:15
Speaker 1: due stuff. So I think that when when sports do
12:18
Speaker 1: come back, has come back in a big way, especially
12:20
Speaker 1: with gambling, a lot of people are gonna be betting. Well, look, Darren,
12:24
Speaker 1: you can, you can skick to this. There's just massive
12:27
Speaker 1: pent up demand. Yeah, I listen. I I think it'd
12:31
Speaker 1: be interesting to see in the meantime, if the sports books,
12:34
Speaker 1: who you know, not really doing much. You have the
12:38
Speaker 1: DraftKings and the fan duels of the world going on
12:41
Speaker 1: the daily fantasy side to do you know, ten thousand
12:45
Speaker 1: dollar free to play UH contests. I don't really think
12:48
Speaker 1: on the sports book side, Bella, Russian UH soccer and
12:54
Speaker 1: ping pong are doing anything. But you know, it'd be
12:57
Speaker 1: interesting to see if if states start to all over
13:01
Speaker 1: the Department of Gaming Enforcements start to say you can
13:04
Speaker 1: do political betting. I think that's a billion dollar plus market. Um,
13:09
Speaker 1: So that'd be interesting in the meantime. But as far
13:11
Speaker 1: as when we get back, I think we're going to
13:13
Speaker 1: get back. The only question is how much disposable income
13:17
Speaker 1: has been kind of let go from the market, and
13:21
Speaker 1: you know, are people worried about how many people are
13:25
Speaker 1: worried about their rent and real essentials that gambling doesn't
13:28
Speaker 1: become part of it. I think as far as bouncing back,
13:32
Speaker 1: it's going to be one of those industries that's closest
13:35
Speaker 1: to bouncing back to before than than any other. Hey Simmons,
13:41
Speaker 1: I assume during the travels you kept up with all
13:44
Speaker 1: the free agency news and the fact that Tom Brady
13:47
Speaker 1: has left the New England Patriots and signed with the
13:49
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In your understand, yeah he did, he did,
13:53
Speaker 1: am I breaking that news to you? That breaking news
13:56
Speaker 1: in your estimation, who was more valuable to the pay tree?
14:00
Speaker 1: It's against the point spread. I don't want to be
14:03
Speaker 1: the guy that that beats down Brady because he like
14:06
Speaker 1: I'd always repet you guys about how my system I
14:10
Speaker 1: always do follow, but there are times, especially the players,
14:12
Speaker 1: where I don't, just like in a Super Bowl where
14:14
Speaker 1: my system like San Fran but it just doesn't understand
14:17
Speaker 1: that Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest quarterbacks we're
14:20
Speaker 1: gonna see and this is just his coming out party.
14:23
Speaker 1: So that's why I love the Chiefs. Where the same
14:25
Speaker 1: thing as Brady over his whole career. I think he
14:27
Speaker 1: had a couple of seasons like the one season to
14:29
Speaker 1: for fifty the m v P. Obviously my system loved them,
14:31
Speaker 1: but most years Brady is not really considered that great
14:36
Speaker 1: of a like of a pub like. It's more of
14:38
Speaker 1: those things where they they took advantage of his skill
14:41
Speaker 1: set where he was quick getting the ball out there
14:42
Speaker 1: shift your receiver's quick running backs where I think It's
14:46
Speaker 1: gonna be funny to see how people people do this
14:49
Speaker 1: because people kind of do doubt Bill Belichick for some
14:52
Speaker 1: reason when he had those backups those four games, Um,
14:56
Speaker 1: when Brady was out for the flake Gate, he went
14:58
Speaker 1: three and one straight up and I think he was
15:01
Speaker 1: four and against the spread. Where Like, he's just kind
15:04
Speaker 1: of guy that he he makes everyone his team a chameleon.
15:07
Speaker 1: They just turn can do whatever the style he needs
15:11
Speaker 1: just for that exact game and game playing. So a
15:15
Speaker 1: lot of people are doing these seasons total wins. Like
15:17
Speaker 1: the numbers at nine nine and a half of the Patriots.
15:20
Speaker 1: It's one of those where you shouldn't really care about
15:22
Speaker 1: the quarterback. You should just take it on the consistency
15:24
Speaker 1: of what Bill Belichick has done in his career convinced
15:28
Speaker 1: and why he should take the Patriot is over nine
15:30
Speaker 1: and a half wins this year. I just think if
15:34
Speaker 1: he would just look at the numbers of what Brady
15:36
Speaker 1: did last season. I mean, people can go back to
15:38
Speaker 1: that he didn't have the weapons, which you cannot argue
15:41
Speaker 1: they lost the Hall of Fame tight ends and they
15:43
Speaker 1: stuck in a thirty four year old tight end and
15:45
Speaker 1: thought maybe that would make a difference. It's just that
15:47
Speaker 1: they definitely let down Brady with not getting them weapons,
15:50
Speaker 1: and that's probably one of the one of the many
15:52
Speaker 1: reasons he left them. But I just think with a quarterback,
15:55
Speaker 1: if they can put in a harrier or this kid,
15:57
Speaker 1: I think is extend him this this kid that was
15:59
Speaker 1: the backup b Sure, it's if he can just not
16:01
Speaker 1: lose them the game, just like Brady was early in
16:04
Speaker 1: his career. I really think you're gonna see this is
16:07
Speaker 1: gonna be like the early two thousand Patriots team where
16:09
Speaker 1: it's a really great defense with good leaders like they
16:12
Speaker 1: had with Teddy Bruski back then, and it's a little
16:16
Speaker 1: gonna be a little different than it used to be.
16:17
Speaker 1: Like that playoff game they were only losing whatever was
16:20
Speaker 1: I think it was like fourteen thirteen or something like that.
16:23
Speaker 1: It's like, I think they felt let down by Brady
16:26
Speaker 1: that he go and put up thirteen points at home
16:28
Speaker 1: and then might have gone into why they let him go.
16:30
Speaker 1: So that's why that that low number of nine a half,
16:33
Speaker 1: he just has to get to ten. It doesn't feel
16:35
Speaker 1: like that's that many wins in that division. Yeah, I
16:38
Speaker 1: remember Jared's stid him because he's the guy who threw
16:40
Speaker 1: the interception that costs me a lot of money relative
16:44
Speaker 1: a lot of money. I don't have faith in Jared's
16:46
Speaker 1: did Brian Hoyer maybe a little bit more? All right? Well, then, Simon,
16:49
Speaker 1: what about some of the other moves, Like when you
16:51
Speaker 1: you're starting to think about this, Obviously there's an advantage
16:54
Speaker 1: to betting some of these things early if you feel
16:57
Speaker 1: like you're ahead of the curve. So looking at the
17:03
Speaker 1: free agency moves, have there been totals? Have there been
17:06
Speaker 1: future z odds that you're like, yeah, I am totally
17:10
Speaker 1: jumping on this. Um. I mean, I can go into detail.
17:13
Speaker 1: One of my favorite things that my mentor taught me
17:16
Speaker 1: really early on, which is really interesting about football and
17:19
Speaker 1: not unmost people take advantage of, is that the Patriots,
17:23
Speaker 1: you gotta throw them out everything they do, they break
17:25
Speaker 1: all the rules. They're not good thing to base your
17:28
Speaker 1: system on the things you rely on. But the thing
17:31
Speaker 1: to look at for futures is that the NFL set
17:33
Speaker 1: up that these rookie contracts is what make and break teams.
17:37
Speaker 1: It's a smart front office. They get a good rookie
17:39
Speaker 1: on a good deal and they can fill in their
17:41
Speaker 1: defense and offense with that extra money. So if you
17:43
Speaker 1: just go through the last couple of years, um, I
17:47
Speaker 1: mean the second third year QB method, you can find
17:50
Speaker 1: like good. It's it's mainly find quarterbacks in the second
17:53
Speaker 1: third year in an offensive system. So if we go
17:56
Speaker 1: last year, second third year with San Prance, I think
17:58
Speaker 1: they are fifty two one at this time to win
18:00
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. So that's crazy good value. The year
18:03
Speaker 1: before the Rams, which they weren't great value. That's again
18:06
Speaker 1: that's the second third year quarterback in golf on a
18:09
Speaker 1: rookie contract, so they had the kind of value i'd
18:12
Speaker 1: bet on them just I think they might have been
18:13
Speaker 1: twenty to one or fifteen to one. And then the
18:16
Speaker 1: year before that where the Eagles, where it was Carson
18:19
Speaker 1: one second year, I think, so he's on a low
18:21
Speaker 1: cheap deal, they can spend that money out and they
18:23
Speaker 1: might have been thirty to one to get to the
18:25
Speaker 1: super Bowl. So it's it's one of those that you
18:32
Speaker 1: you look at the numbers and you always have to
18:34
Speaker 1: look for value on quarterbacks are on rookie contracts and
18:37
Speaker 1: where's that value at. So this year it's not great
18:41
Speaker 1: because a lot of these guys don't look like they
18:43
Speaker 1: have this kind of upside that these other quarterbacks have had.
18:46
Speaker 1: But some off shore books have the Denver Broncos a
18:49
Speaker 1: plus five thousand five. That's not a terrible value. I
18:52
Speaker 1: know that they're in the Chief's division and that's a
18:54
Speaker 1: big fear with this. But the way the NFL is
18:57
Speaker 1: sitting up now is that the it's all about the
18:59
Speaker 1: one seed. So it's kind of like every team is
19:03
Speaker 1: not gonna have great value. If you're betting like the Chiefs,
19:05
Speaker 1: like you might get them plus six hundred. Sure, that's
19:07
Speaker 1: good value for works out you want to is really
19:10
Speaker 1: long shot, so you can just head you out later
19:11
Speaker 1: on you're not looking for so you can get the
19:14
Speaker 1: Chiefs later on the season for a good number. There's
19:17
Speaker 1: no point of time your money up if it's not
19:19
Speaker 1: a long shot right now. So I do like the
19:21
Speaker 1: Broncos that big number. And I also like just just
19:25
Speaker 1: throwing it out there as a card and it was
19:26
Speaker 1: a plus five thousand, Dude, I was gonna ask you
19:28
Speaker 1: about them that they fit that pattern of what you're
19:31
Speaker 1: talking about perfectly, right, and like these are the kind
19:35
Speaker 1: of things you're looking for. It's like, Okay, we got
19:38
Speaker 1: a quarterback here, that's a ton of upside. He's learning
19:41
Speaker 1: an offense. This will be a second year in the offense,
19:43
Speaker 1: and the team is obviously supporting him by bringing in
19:46
Speaker 1: a different running back last year that finished a really
19:48
Speaker 1: strong for them, then bringing in New Hopkins, which is
19:51
Speaker 1: still argument a lot of people say the best receiver
19:53
Speaker 1: in the game. So it's just one of the things
19:55
Speaker 1: where it's a nice little set up for Everson. I
19:56
Speaker 1: know people are worried about that division because it is
19:59
Speaker 1: by far the best division in football, but I think
20:02
Speaker 1: they really showed that they're pretty good. They won five
20:04
Speaker 1: games last year that division, so they showed up for
20:06
Speaker 1: his rookie year. Uh. I have two other teams I
20:10
Speaker 1: want to ask you abouts I think they fit into this,
20:12
Speaker 1: but one is a little bit unorthodox and the other
20:16
Speaker 1: fits in perfectly. The first one which fits in perfectly
20:20
Speaker 1: are the Buffalo Bills, who are everything you just described
20:24
Speaker 1: to a t with Josh Allen. So if you're saying no,
20:27
Speaker 1: it's because you don't believe in Josh Allen, and it's
20:32
Speaker 1: it's a funny thing where a lot of people are
20:34
Speaker 1: hanging on the Bills And I'm gonna drink the pool
20:36
Speaker 1: again I'm gonna go like the Jets this year. I
20:39
Speaker 1: just I just liked the direction that Jets are going.
20:42
Speaker 1: I know this this might be a year early because
20:44
Speaker 1: Sam Donald's just deal with a lot of stuff last
20:46
Speaker 1: year and they have not having an off season this year.
20:49
Speaker 1: But from what I've seen from Josh Allen, I mean,
20:51
Speaker 1: he is a great quarterback when he runs and he
20:52
Speaker 1: can chuck it deep, but it's how reliable is that
20:56
Speaker 1: style to get gets you on a good run. It's
20:59
Speaker 1: not if you know, he's really one of those guys
21:02
Speaker 1: where it's like he could be good value on this
21:05
Speaker 1: kind of bet. But they just make me nervous for
21:07
Speaker 1: that division because I just I still up can't see
21:09
Speaker 1: them being out the Patriots to want it. I have
21:14
Speaker 1: one more team I want to ask you about, but Darren,
21:15
Speaker 1: I don't want to hog it. If you have a
21:17
Speaker 1: question you want to throw in there right now, no,
21:20
Speaker 1: I'll let you go. So the other team is, by
21:26
Speaker 1: the way, Matt Mitchell, our producer, who is a massive,
21:29
Speaker 1: massive UH Bills fan, just slacked me and said, fucking
21:36
Speaker 1: imagine choosing Adam Gaze over Buffalo Matt Mitchell is as
21:43
Speaker 1: I actually love their head coach. I get what he's saying.
21:45
Speaker 1: He's a he used to be on the Eagles. He's
21:47
Speaker 1: a good dude. But I just there's something about Josh
21:51
Speaker 1: Allen that they just I don't know. I'm just not
21:54
Speaker 1: there yet. On all right, let me throw a wild
21:57
Speaker 1: card at you then, because this guy is had a
22:00
Speaker 1: traditional second third year quarterback, but he is still relatively
22:05
Speaker 1: early in his playing career. Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina Panthers,
22:11
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be hard to say because that that
22:14
Speaker 1: offense is going to be stacked with weapons. They have
22:17
Speaker 1: a ton of really speedy receivers, and they have maybe
22:20
Speaker 1: the best running back in football. And I think I
22:24
Speaker 1: said a couple of couple of times last year in
22:25
Speaker 1: the podcast, Teddy Bridgewater against the spread is one of
22:29
Speaker 1: the greatest gifts we've ever gotten from the Game of Gods.
22:32
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's seventy that he covers, but
22:35
Speaker 1: it's it's something pretty insane like that that Teddy just
22:38
Speaker 1: always covers. But in that division with the Saints and
22:43
Speaker 1: the Bucks in Atlanta, it's it's really hard just that
22:49
Speaker 1: unless unless you want to just do it. Throw a
22:51
Speaker 1: penny on it, because I know some books have them
22:53
Speaker 1: a crazy good od. It's like plus ten thousands throwing
22:55
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Um, why not? But it's just the
22:59
Speaker 1: way that division lined up, it would take them a
23:01
Speaker 1: couple of miracles to get get that top seed. All right, Uh,
23:05
Speaker 1: let's do Uh. The guys that everyone had faith in
23:09
Speaker 1: last year, they were horrendously under They were who they
23:15
Speaker 1: are who they we thought they were. They are who
23:19
Speaker 1: we thought they were, The Cleveland Browns. Yeah, and I
23:26
Speaker 1: remember us laughing and joking about it early in the
23:28
Speaker 1: season last year. I told you, guys, just for years,
23:31
Speaker 1: I know plenty of guys that always say that, they go,
23:33
Speaker 1: this is gonna be the year the Browns. You'll get
23:35
Speaker 1: good value on them all year, just because people are
23:37
Speaker 1: gonna get betting against them. And a flip last year
23:40
Speaker 1: where people people started back in the Browns early in
23:42
Speaker 1: the year and I left, you, guys, you're gonna get
23:44
Speaker 1: so much value. I'm ben against these Browns because I've
23:47
Speaker 1: just been to it last year and going in this year,
23:49
Speaker 1: they're they're they're trying to upgrade, which is their big mistake.
23:52
Speaker 1: Last years they got rid of some of their best
23:54
Speaker 1: offensive alignments because they thought, hey, we got O'Dell, we
23:57
Speaker 1: got Landry. All you have to do is just the
24:00
Speaker 1: ball in their hands. Are things be fine? But Baker
24:03
Speaker 1: he regressed terribly last year, especially when you look at
24:06
Speaker 1: the numbers. His numbers of him in the pocket were terrible,
24:09
Speaker 1: eve when you had a protection. So it's one of
24:11
Speaker 1: those things. Yeah, if you're a fan of the Browns,
24:13
Speaker 1: share throw opening on them, but don't waste your money
24:15
Speaker 1: ever betting on Brown's futures. They have the future. Oh Simon,
24:22
Speaker 1: that is that is not That's like a nail in
24:27
Speaker 1: the coffin kind of line there. That doesn't give any
24:29
Speaker 1: of the Browns fans listening to this much hope. So
24:32
Speaker 1: here's what I want you to do. I want you
24:34
Speaker 1: to give Let me tell let me tell you the scenario.
24:37
Speaker 1: Let me set the scene for it. I'm in my
24:39
Speaker 1: spacious office in my mansion in Connecticut, uh, defending myself
24:43
Speaker 1: against the coronavirus, and my thirteen year old son is
24:48
Speaker 1: in my office hanging out with me. When we get
24:50
Speaker 1: the news that the Bears have traded for Nick Foles,
24:53
Speaker 1: and I immediately say to him, do you think Nick
24:57
Speaker 1: Foles is going to be the starting quarterback? And he
24:59
Speaker 1: said to me, what about Rubinsky? And my response was,
25:03
Speaker 1: oh my god, I forgot about Mitch Trobisky. That's how little.
25:08
Speaker 1: That's how little I think of Mitch Trobiski. Does Nick
25:12
Speaker 1: Folds as a potential starter give you more confidence in
25:17
Speaker 1: the Bears as a Super Bowl value pick for futures?
25:23
Speaker 1: My only worry about the Bears is they I mean,
25:26
Speaker 1: everyone knew they were gonna breast last year. That's just
25:28
Speaker 1: how football is. It's it's just so hard year in
25:32
Speaker 1: a year out to just keep repeating over ten win seasons.
25:35
Speaker 1: And that's why I like guys like Drew Brees, Tom
25:37
Speaker 1: Brady they've been in this league forever because they're just
25:39
Speaker 1: guys who just keep doing it every year. When we
25:43
Speaker 1: were talking about Mitch last year, it kind of looked
25:45
Speaker 1: like the book was out on him, but he couldn't
25:48
Speaker 1: keep getting away with his first reads and then he
25:50
Speaker 1: would scramble for a bunch of yards. So I think
25:53
Speaker 1: it is kind of one of those spots where they're
25:54
Speaker 1: bringing Nick Foles either to push them or if Nick
25:57
Speaker 1: out performs them, will gladly let Nick become the star.
26:00
Speaker 1: They don't have money tied up to Trabisky. That he's not.
26:04
Speaker 1: He's expendable, So it is interesting what they're gonna do
26:07
Speaker 1: with that. Is Nick coming and take his job or
26:10
Speaker 1: is you just there support him. Here's my last question
26:12
Speaker 1: for your science. If there is no fook in the fall,
26:16
Speaker 1: how much will that impact you? Do you start planning
26:19
Speaker 1: for that? Now? As a professional gambler, how do you
26:21
Speaker 1: start thinking about I might not have an income, I think,
26:25
Speaker 1: I mean, i'd be r right, like I always joke,
26:28
Speaker 1: like with the guys that work with like, the goal
26:30
Speaker 1: is always to set yourself up that you can have
26:32
Speaker 1: five losing seasons in our row and you're still you're
26:35
Speaker 1: still You're still all right. So it's one of those
26:37
Speaker 1: when you're a long term better and you're building a
26:39
Speaker 1: bank roll, that's all you're doing is you're you're you're
26:42
Speaker 1: picking spots where I'm either going huge on this game
26:45
Speaker 1: and I have another couple of games. I'm just putting
26:47
Speaker 1: a dime on them. But it's someone that built a bank. Well.
26:50
Speaker 1: The biggest way is just just like everyone else, time
26:53
Speaker 1: is always the most dangerous thing with everyone. It's just
26:56
Speaker 1: if you just have too much time in your hand.
26:57
Speaker 1: I think everyone can go a little crazy. So that's
27:00
Speaker 1: the only where you go, What What'll I do when
27:02
Speaker 1: football comes around? Because right now and I'll be able
27:03
Speaker 1: to distract myself prepared for the season running numbers on
27:07
Speaker 1: these players coming to the draft. And it is funny
27:10
Speaker 1: where that that is a big worry because I'm preparing
27:13
Speaker 1: my mind that, yeah, there could not be a season,
27:15
Speaker 1: but I'm also just thinking myself, I might as well
27:18
Speaker 1: use this time to get ready for the season instead of,
27:21
Speaker 1: you know, just waiting until their word comes out there
27:24
Speaker 1: there won't be a season. But I think that the
27:27
Speaker 1: biggest things, especially the guy that I worked with and
27:29
Speaker 1: talk to you you, is that they're just they're just worried
27:31
Speaker 1: that sports might come back and we'll they'll be able
27:34
Speaker 1: to get back to making a living. But they're just
27:37
Speaker 1: where that people aren't going to have It's not not
27:40
Speaker 1: that they're gonna have money to be gambling, but that
27:41
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot different than it was right
27:43
Speaker 1: before where a lot of us were getting in all
27:45
Speaker 1: of our sports. We're getting really great value just because
27:48
Speaker 1: the public was so flushed with money and just was
27:52
Speaker 1: really really betting big in the past season. Like I
27:55
Speaker 1: think New Jersey is out out during Vegas a couple
27:58
Speaker 1: of times these last couple of months. It's really become
28:00
Speaker 1: like a mecca for gambling. Five of twelve months. That yeah,
28:04
Speaker 1: that's incredible, and it's just because New York just hasn't
28:07
Speaker 1: legalized it, so it just it's just them coming down
28:10
Speaker 1: in the Jersey making these bets, and it's just really
28:12
Speaker 1: it's really helped people like me where last season was
28:15
Speaker 1: one of my better seasons I've ever had with betting underdogs.
28:17
Speaker 1: I mean, I couldn't get over how big some of
28:20
Speaker 1: these lines got. And it made me laugh because I
28:23
Speaker 1: think the season before it was the Buffalo Bills were
28:26
Speaker 1: playing the Bike Tings or something like that, and I
28:29
Speaker 1: love like last year and the year before I loved
28:32
Speaker 1: the Bills defense, and the Bills were seventeen point underdog
28:34
Speaker 1: and they killed Star Cousins and the Vikings, and it's
28:38
Speaker 1: just one of those where I laught. I mean, you
28:39
Speaker 1: can't imagine you're getting whatever it was, plus a thousand
28:44
Speaker 1: or plus eight hundred or anything on the dog, and
28:46
Speaker 1: it's just like, I can't believe money lines are getting
28:48
Speaker 1: in this big just because the public's betting these numbers
28:51
Speaker 1: up so big. You know, today is actually the day
28:55
Speaker 1: that the New York state budget comes into a picture.
28:59
Speaker 1: And you know, just in February we were arguing, you know,
29:02
Speaker 1: the true doomsday would be if Andrew Cuomo didn't start
29:07
Speaker 1: doing mobile sports betting. And here we are on April one,
29:11
Speaker 1: and it's like not even a topic. So it looks
29:15
Speaker 1: like sports betting is out. But of course it's a
29:17
Speaker 1: moot point. But I do also wonder in this scenario,
29:21
Speaker 1: it's very possible that a lot of state rules are
29:25
Speaker 1: amended to account for the emergent situation that we're all in.
29:32
Speaker 1: And in two months, when New York is hopefully on
29:36
Speaker 1: the other side of the peak, they're evaluating the budget
29:39
Speaker 1: and being, oh my god, where we have so many
29:42
Speaker 1: revenue shortfalls, Let's figure out the sports betting thing right away,
29:46
Speaker 1: because there is so much money coming in on Jersey.
29:48
Speaker 1: Cuomo can't be as picky as he once was. And
29:51
Speaker 1: if it is, and we didn't know this, if it
29:53
Speaker 1: is a vice kind of thing, well, you know, yeah,
29:56
Speaker 1: it's a It's a completely different conversation in May than
30:00
Speaker 1: it was in January. There are people that are looking
30:02
Speaker 1: for action. Of course, you can do the draft, and
30:05
Speaker 1: you can do all these futures everything like that, where um, yeah,
30:09
Speaker 1: it's good. It's good to do futures right now, especially
30:11
Speaker 1: if you're just hanging out. It's fun to have something
30:13
Speaker 1: look forward to. But it's it's definitely one of those
30:16
Speaker 1: times where you just have to make sure if you're
30:18
Speaker 1: if you're betting better on legal books, try to not
30:20
Speaker 1: to do off shore because you don't know what's gonna
30:22
Speaker 1: happen with all those off shore books. See Simon is
30:25
Speaker 1: advocating for legal books, which is what the Action Network does,
30:28
Speaker 1: and he didn't even know he had to do that,
30:30
Speaker 1: which we really appreciate. But Darren, I want you to
30:33
Speaker 1: the last word because Simon brought up something really interesting.
30:36
Speaker 1: Hold on, go back on you for a second till
30:37
Speaker 1: I'm done. It was really interesting. He talked about New
30:40
Speaker 1: Jersey outpacing Nevada, which you mentioned they've done five or
30:44
Speaker 1: last world months, which is amazing. And the second thing
30:47
Speaker 1: is how big does betting come back. Simon worries that
30:51
Speaker 1: there won't be enough for quittery in the market, whereas
30:54
Speaker 1: I think you and I would probably have a different take.
30:56
Speaker 1: It's the cost to value ratio, and so I would
31:00
Speaker 1: say that the dollar costs more to people now because
31:04
Speaker 1: they have less of it, but the value might be
31:08
Speaker 1: greater because they missed it so much. I mean that's
31:12
Speaker 1: really the equation that you have to consider, right, So, so,
31:15
Speaker 1: how stir crazy have people gotten and how much more
31:20
Speaker 1: do they value the fun of gambling than before where
31:24
Speaker 1: they took it for granted? But I think gambling is
31:27
Speaker 1: going to be majorly up relative to other businesses at
31:32
Speaker 1: least say that might not be gangbusters, but it will
31:35
Speaker 1: be up. Yeah, I don't disagree. I do think football,
31:38
Speaker 1: if that's the first part back, I think it'll be
31:39
Speaker 1: huge because I think people are gonna be at and
31:41
Speaker 1: and that would be big. I just think across the
31:43
Speaker 1: board other sports, like all the other guys I talked
31:45
Speaker 1: to and work, but they've they've just been talking about
31:47
Speaker 1: how much better the lines have been for value. I
31:50
Speaker 1: think it's really gonna other sports, not football, beause football
31:52
Speaker 1: is me the first one out of the gate. People
31:53
Speaker 1: people will have money most likely to burn, especially people
31:56
Speaker 1: that have just not been spending money on other stupid
32:00
Speaker 1: things like they usually would like going on vacation and
32:02
Speaker 1: buying nice things. Like they might have money they're they're
32:05
Speaker 1: willing to use on football, but I just think other
32:07
Speaker 1: sports are deltly gonna take a dip. Simon Hunter professional better,
32:11
Speaker 1: Dan Ravel, You're a professional something in my heart, buddy.
32:15
Speaker 1: It was good to have you both back on the podcast.
32:17
Speaker 1: I felt like I needed to connect with you. This
32:19
Speaker 1: was nice and company for me. This has been the
32:21
Speaker 1: favorites from the Action Network. Downloaded, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher,
32:25
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time, I love you.