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Belief Bias: How Prior Beliefs Distort Logical Reasoning · Reformed Thinking

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Welcome to Reform thinking. I am well.
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I am so glad you were joining us today.
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Yeah, it is great to be here with you for this.
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The goal of this deep dive into the sources is to take a stack
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of fascinating texts, extract the most crucial insights, and
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present them in a way that equips you to understand the
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world through a clearer lens. Right.
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And we are taking on a mission today that touches on something
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you experience every single day, whether you realize it or not.
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We are going to examine a fascinating intersection between
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cognitive psychology and reformed theology.
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Specifically, we will look at how human beings evaluate
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arguments, why we naturally gravitate toward conclusions
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that feel right to us, and the spiritual reality behind this
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mental habit. I want you to think about this
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for a second. Have you ever wondered why a
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perfectly logical argument gets rejected by someone just because
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they do not like the conclusion? Or, conversely, have you ever
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watched someone accept a terrible, broken argument simply
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because the end result aligns with what they already believe?
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We have two specific texts on the table today to help us
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understand this phenomenon. The first is a secular or
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cognitive psychology text titled Belief Bias.
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A prior believes distort logical reasoning.
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And the second is a theological text titled The Mind of the
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Rebel versus the Mind of the Spirit, a Reformed Critique of
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belief biases in Romans 8.5 through 9.
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We are going to look at the psychological symptoms of this
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issue and then we will apply a biblical diagnostic to
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understand the spiritual disease causing it.
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That is a great framework for our discussion today.
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When you observe human communication, especially in
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debates or, you know, casual disagreements, you quickly
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realize that we are not the objective, neutral processing
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machines we often claim to be. Not at all.
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The secular text offers a remarkably accurate observation
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of this psychological phenomenon, calling it belief
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bias. Belief bias is defined as the
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human inclination to judge an argument by the plausibility or
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acceptability of its conclusion, rather than the strength of its
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logical reasoning. To understand this concept
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thoroughly, we must make a critical distinction between
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validity and believability. Yes, that distinction is
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absolutely key. In the realm of formal logic,
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validity refers to the structural soundness of an
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argument. An argument is valid when the
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conclusion logically follows from the premises, regardless of
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whether those premises are actually true in the real world.
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Right validity is entirely about the architecture of the thought
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process. Believability, on the other
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hand, refers to how acceptable the conclusion sounds to you,
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the listener. It is a measure of comfort,
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familiarity and agreement with your existing worldview.
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The human mind frequently confuses these two distinct
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categories. When a conclusion sounds
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believable, you are highly likely to assume the argument is
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structurally valid. And when a conclusion sounds
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unbelievable, you are highly likely to declare the argument
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invalid. You substitute your personal
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comfort level for objective logical analysis, which
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completely distorts your ability to assess evidence honestly.
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Let's look at how the brain actually glitches in real time.
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The secular text gives some great, almost funny examples to
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prove how easily we fall for this confusion.
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Let's walk through an argument that is highly plausible but
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completely invalid. Picture this syllogism.
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Premise 1. All doctors are educated people.
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OK, that makes sense. Premise 2.
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Maria is an educated person. Still tracking.
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Conclusion. Therefore, Maria is a doctor.
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When you hear that, your brain immediately registers that it
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sounds correct. Maria is educated.
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Doctors are educated. The conclusion makes sense in
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the real world. You might actually know a doctor
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named Maria, so your brain instantly goes along with it.
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The conclusion is highly believable, but the logic is
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entirely broken. It is structurally flawed.
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If you were to draw a Venn diagram, you would have a
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massive circle representing all the educated people in the
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world. Inside that massive circle you
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would have a smaller circle representing doctors.
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Maria is somewhere inside the massive circle of educated
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people, but there is absolutely nothing in the premises
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guaranteeing she is inside the smaller circle of doctors.
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She could be an engineer, a teacher or a historian.
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The brain completely skips over the structural flaw because the
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conclusion feels acceptable to your everyday experience.
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Now let's look at the exact opposite scenario, an argument
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that is absurd but completely valid in its structure.
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Premise one All fish can speak fluent English.
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Premise 2 Salmon are fish. Conclusion.
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Therefore, salmon can speak fluent English.
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That second example perfectly isolates the concept of formal
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validity. If you look closely at the
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structure, it is flawless. If the premises were true, the
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conclusion would absolutely have to follow without any exception.
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Yet when you present that argument to someone on the
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street, they will instinctively reject the logic because the
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conclusion is ridiculous. They will call it a bad argument
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by conflating factual falsity with structural invalidity.
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They cannot separate the architecture of the argument
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from the absurdity of the claim. The secular source provides
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further examples to cement this distinction for you.
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Take The Walking Oaks syllogism. Premise one All trees can walk
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across cities at night. Premise 2.
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Oaks are trees. Conclusion.
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Therefore, oaks can walk across cities at night.
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Again, the structure is perfectly valid, the
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architecture is sound. But the first premise is
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demonstrably false, leading to a highly unbelievable conclusion.
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Contrast that with the French speaking cats syllogism.
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Premise one. All animals that live in houses
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can speak French. Premise 2 Cats often live in
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houses. Conclusion.
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Therefore, cats can speak French.
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Almost everyone rejects this immediately, sometimes even
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laughing at it. But if you were to change the
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vocabulary while keeping the exact same structure,
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substituting believable premises about mammals or house pets,
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people would accept the logic without a second thought.
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These examples demonstrate A glaring reality.
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You do not naturally separate truth, plausibility and valid
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form. You mash them all together,
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judging the entire package by your initial gut reaction to the
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final sentence. So how does this operate in
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daily life? Why do we do this so
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consistently? The secular text explains the
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mechanics of this cognitive shortcut.
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The mind constantly seeks efficiency.
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Every single day you are bombarded with claims,
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arguments, advertisements, political speeches and debates.
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If you were to stop and formally map out the premises and
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conclusions of every single argument you encountered, you
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would be paralyzed. You'd never be able to make a
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decision or hold a conversation. Encountering a new argument, the
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brain skips the tedious work of tracing premises.
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Instead, it asks a very quick, intuitive question.
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Does this sound right to me? When the answer is yes, that
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feeling of agreement feels like actual proof.
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When the answer is no, that feeling of resistance feels like
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a successful refutation. You can see the real world
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consequences of this everywhere, especially in places where we
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think we are being highly analytical.
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Think about the workplace. Someone in a boardroom might
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argue successful companies invest in technology, this
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company invest in technology, therefore this company will be
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successful. You hear variations of that in
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corporate meetings all the time. Listeners not along because it
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sounds optimist, forward thinking and plausible.
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But the logic is a massive fallacy.
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It is the exact same broken structure as the Maria the
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Doctor syllogism. Many failed companies also
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invested heavily in technology before they went bankrupt.
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The believability of the conclusion acts as a total
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smokescreen for the weak reasoning.
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You see the same dynamic operating with even greater
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weight in personal relationships where emotional factors are
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added to the equation. The source material offers the
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example of a forgotten birthday to illustrate this point.
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Imagine someone sitting at home thinking people who care
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remember important dates. Daniel forgot my birthday.
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Therefore, Daniel does not care about me.
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The conclusion carries a heavy emotional charge.
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It feels highly believable to the person who is sitting there
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feeling hurt and neglected. That emotional believability
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completely blinds the person to the incredibly weak logic.
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Daniel might have forgotten the date due to a highly demanding
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work schedule, a sudden family crisis, or simple absent
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mindedness. None of those alternative
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explanations negate his overall care and affection for the
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person. But the hurt individual accepts
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the flawed logic because the conclusion matches their current
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emotional state. To understand this clearly, we
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must carefully untangle belief bias from other related
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cognitive flaws, giving you precise terminology.
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First, there is confirmation bias.
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Confirmation bias is the act of selecting and gathering
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information that supports your prior views while actively
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ignoring or discarding contradictory evidence.
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You build an echo chamber. Belief bias is different.
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It is specifically about evaluating the logical structure
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of an argument that is already sitting right in front of you.
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2nd, we must distinguish it from emotional reasoning.
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That is the habit of treating feelings as actual proof of
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reality. For instance, believing that
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feeling afraid means you are in literal physical danger even
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when you are completely safe. Finally, there is motivated
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reasoning. In motivated reasoning, you act
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as a defense attorney for a preferred result, actively
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seeking ways to justify an outcome you want.
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Belief bias is a specific mechanism that can feed into
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motivated reasoning, where the plausibility of the conclusion
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short circuits your logical evaluation before the defense
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attorney even has to build a case.
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Now that we have defined what this bias is and how it
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functions, we need to look at the causes identified in the
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secular text. Why do we substitute
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believability for logic so consistently?
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The text outlines 5 distinct causes for this behavior.
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The first 'cause is our prior beliefs.
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You do not approach claims as a blank slate.
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No one does. You carry a massive framework of
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assumptions built from your upbringing, your culture, your
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education and your lived experiences.
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When an argument arrives at your doorstep, you instantly measure
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it against that pre-existing framework.
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The second cause is the human preference for cognitive
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shortcuts. As we noted earlier, you
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prioritize speed over accuracy in daily life.
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It takes mental calories to evaluate formal logic, and your
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brain prefers to conserve energy by relying on intuition.
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The third cause is emotional investment.
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When an issue touches on politics, morality or religion,
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it is no longer just an abstract puzzle on a whiteboard.
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Disagreement feels like a literal personal threat.
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Your identity is attached to the conclusion, so your brain
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defends it aggressively. The 4th cause is social
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reinforcement. We live in communities, and
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communities heavily reward conclusions that align with
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group consensus. You learn very quickly that
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agreeing with the logic of your peers brings acceptance, warmth,
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and inclusion. While challenging, their logic
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brings ostracism and friction. Finally, the fifth cause is
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simply a lack of logical training.
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Many people lack the fundamental tools to test an inference.
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They have never been taught how to separate a premise from a
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conclusion, they have never studied syllogisms, and they do
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not know what a logical fallacy is.
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Because they lack the formal tools, they rely on their
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intuition because it is quite literally the only tool they
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possess. The cognitive psychology text is
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exceptional at accurately observing these symptoms.
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It lists the mechanisms, the environmental factors and the
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cognitive habits perfectly. However, it misses the root
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cause of the issue. It assumes that human beings are
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victims of evolutionary biology, societal conditioning, or
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innocent mistakes in mental processing.
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This is where we must transition to our second source, the
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reformed theological critique. This text looks at the exact
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same issue through a biblical lens.
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The secular text diagnoses A psychological glitch, but
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Scripture diagnosis a terminal spiritual condition.
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This behavior is not just a matter of processing speed or a
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lack of formal education. It is a direct manifestation of
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what theologians call the noetic effects of sin.
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The word noetic comes from the Greek word nose, which
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translates to the mind or the intellect.
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The doctrine of the noetic effects of sin refers to the
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reality that the fall of humanity in Eden corrupted every
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single part of our nature. And the corruption explicitly
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includes our reasoning faculties.
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We must ground this discussion in Reformed theology,
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specifically citing the Westminster Confession of Faith.
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In chapter 6, paragraph 2, the confession states that because
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of the Fall, human beings are utterly indisposed, disabled,
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and made opposite to all good and wholly inclined to all evil.
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I want you to consider the weight of those words.
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This total depravity does not just apply to our moral actions
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or our physical desires. It extends fully to our
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intellect. The mind is not a neutral
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objective machine evaluating data with pure motives.
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As John Calvin accurately observed, the human mind is an
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idol factory. It actively manufacturers false
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gods and false conclusions to justify its own ongoing
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rebellion against the Creator. To truly grasp the weight of
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this condition, we need to open the biblical text that our
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second source relies upon. Which is Romans chapter 8 verse
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5. In this passage, the Apostle
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Paul sets up a stark, unyielding binary contrast.
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He writes about two distinct categories of humanity.
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Those existing according to the flesh, which in the original
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Greek is katasarca. Versus those existing according
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to the spirit which is katanuma. The secular world views humanity
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as a broad spectrum of relatively good people who
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sometimes make cognitive errors or logic mistakes.
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The biblical worldview says there is no spectrum.
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There are only two states of existence, and your state
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determines entirely how your mind functions.
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The text says that those who live according to the flesh set
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their minds on the things of the flesh.
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The Greek verb used there is fronus.
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This is a crucial word for our deep dive today.
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Setting the mind is not just having a passing thought.
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It is not a temporary lapse in judgement or a quick cognitive
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shortcut. Fronche describes an ingrained
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disposition. It is a habitual direction of
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the will. It is the underlying orientation
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of the whole person. When the secular psychologist
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observes someone aggressively rejecting a perfectly valid
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argument that points to God's truth, they call it belief bias.
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They think it's a software error.
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When the apostle Paul observes that exact same behavior, he
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calls it the phone of the flesh. He sees a mind that is
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systematically fired to suppress the truth in unrighteousness.
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We must look extensively at the anatomy of this hostility, which
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brings us directly to Romans chapter 8, verse 6 and the first
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part of verse 7. The text reads, for to set the
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mind on the flesh is death, but to set the mind on the Spirit is
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life and peace, for the mind that is set on the flesh is
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hostile to God. Let's analyze that word hostile.
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The Greek word used here is exa, which translates to enmity or
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active hostility. This completely changes the
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paradigm. Belief bias toward God's truth
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toward biblical logic is not an innocent misunderstanding.
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It is not a lack of sufficient evidence and it is not a failure
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to hear a persuasive enough argument.
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It is an active insurgency. The natural man rejects biblical
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logic because the conclusion is highly offensive to his fallen
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nature. The conclusion being total
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submission to a sovereign holy God.
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The unregenerate mind looks at the claims of Christ, recognizes
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that the conclusion means giving up self rule and autonomy, and
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then weaponizes its reasoning faculties to attack and reject
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the premises. The intellect is grafted into
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the service of the rebellious heart.
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You do not reject the gospel because it is illogical.
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You reject it because you hate the conclusion it demands.
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Your mind uses the appearance of logical as a shield to protect
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your desire for independence. That dynamic leads directly to
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the concept of moral inability, which we see in the second-half
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of verse 7 and into verse 8. The apostle Paul continues
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describing this hostile mind, saying, for it does not submit
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to God's law. Indeed it cannot.
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Those who are in the flesh cannot please God.
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I want to draw your attention to the phrase.
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It does not submit. The Greek verb there is
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hypotasiti. It is actually a military term.
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It means to arrange oneself under the authority of a
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commanding officer, like soldiers falling into rank and
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filing under their leader. The fleshly mind completely
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refuses to arrange itself under God's authority.
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But Paul takes it a massive step further to eliminate any notion
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of human free will in this matter.
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He. Adds the phrase ude gardanati,
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which translates to. Indeed it cannot.
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This is a definitive statement of total moral inability.
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It is not just that the unregenerate mind will not
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submit, it is that it cannot submit.
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It lacks the inherent ontological capacity to do so.
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This biblical reality completely refutes other theological
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systems that try to flatter human nature.
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For example, Arminianism promotes the concept of
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prevanient grace. This is a supposed grace given
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to all humanity that allegedly restores the human will to a
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state of absolute neutrality. Allowing anyone to objectively
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choose or reject God based on their own reasoning and free
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will. But Romans chapter 8 challenges
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that entirely because the text explicitly states the carnal
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mind cannot submit. If it cannot submit, it is not
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neutral. A neutral mind could go either
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way. A mind that cannot submit is
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bound by its own corrupt nature. This doctrine of moral inability
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also comprehensively dismantles the seeker sensitive movement
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and the heavy reliance on pragmatism within modern church
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growth strategies. The underlying assumption of
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these movements is that if you just present the gospel
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attractively enough, the carnal mind will find it acceptable.
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They think if you remove the offensive edges of sin in
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judgement and offer a sufficiently plausible,
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culturally relevant argument, people will freely choose to
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believe. They treat the unbeliever's mind
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as if it is suffering from a mild secular case of belief
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bias. A bias that can easily be
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overcome with a better PowerPoint presentation, better
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music, or a more polished apologetic argument.
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But the text shows us clearly that the carnal mind is
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ontologically biased against the truth.
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No amount of clever marketing, psychological manipulation, or
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polished apologetics can bypass the ekthra, the act of hostility
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of the fallen mind. The natural man is spiritually
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dead. A dead man does not need a
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better argument, he needs a resurrection.
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This brings us to the proper use of this biblical text for the
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listener. In Reformed theology, we speak
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of the three uses of the moral law.
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Romans chapter 8, verses 5 through 8 acts as the first use
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of the law. It functions as a diagnostic
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mirror. It strips away your pretension
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of intellectual neutrality. It shows you that your very
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reasoning is weaponized against the truth, leaving you
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spiritually bankrupt it completely.
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Crushes the pride of the intellect by showing you that
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your best thinking is tainted by rebellion.
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When we look at the remedies offered by the secular world, we
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see how incredibly inadequate they are for our actual
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spiritual condition. The cognitive psychology text
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offers advice for reducing belief bias.
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It tells you to practice intellectual self-awareness,
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engage in slow thinking rather than reactive thinking, actively
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work to separate conclusions from logical structure, and
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cultivate intellectual humility. Those are excellent practices
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for earthly debates. If you are trying to figure out
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corporate strategy, buy a house, or handle a political
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disagreement with your neighbor, those tools are highly
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beneficial. You should definitely use them,
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but they cannot cure the spiritual hostility of the mind
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you. Cannot slow think your way out
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of total depravity. You cannot use intellectual
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humility to overcome Ektra. The true remedy requires a
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completely new birth. That brings us to the cure of
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the renewed mind in Romans chapter 8, verse 9.
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The Apostle Paul writes A stunning transition here.
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You, however, are not in the flesh, but in the Spirit, if in
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fact the Spirit of God dwells in you.
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That transition hinges on the Greek adversarial conjunction
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day, which is translated as but or however.
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This marks an absolute ontological shift.
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It is a change in the fundamental nature of your
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being. Paul says the Holy Spirit takes
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residence in the believer. The Greek word for dwells is
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weke, which signifies a permanent settled dwelling.
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It is not a temporary visit or a fleeting emotion.
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This is the gospel indicative. You are no longer defined by the
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hostility of the flesh, but by the permanent, indwelling
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presence of God. We must look at how this
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testifies to the person and work of Jesus Christ.
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Christ Jesus possessed a mind in perfect, joyful submission to
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the Father. He never once experienced the
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sinful belief bias of the rebel. He never twisted logic to
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justify autonomy. He always judged perfectly
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according to the Father's will. He fulfilled the laws absolute
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demand for a holy disposition, the.
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Believers acceptance before God is not based on finally
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achieving perfect logic objectivity on your own.
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It is based entirely on Christ's finished work applied to you by
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the Holy Spirit. You are credited with Christ's
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perfect submission, the. Spirit takes out the heart of
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stone, removes the hostile mind, and grants a renewed mind that
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actually desires to submit to God's law.
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So based on all these sources and this extensive theological
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breakdown, what does this mean for you, the listener?
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How do we apply this to the head, the heart and the hands?
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What should you believe, feel and do moving forward?
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Let's start with the head. You must believe what God says
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about your intellect. You need to abandon the idol of
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neutral reason. Stop pretending that you or
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anyone else approaches the things of God with absolute
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objectivity. We must subject our minds to the
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analogy of faith, which is the core Reformed principle of
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Scripture interpreting Scripture.
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Your mind must be governed by divine revelation, not your
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intuition. Furthermore, when you are
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talking with someone who is throwing up intellectual
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objections to the Christian faith, you must realize that
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those arguments are very often moral smokescreens.
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They are using cognitive belief bias to protect a heart that
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loves its sin and hates the authority of God.
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You must address the heart condition, not just the
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intellectual argument. Speaking of the heart, we must
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address your affections. The fleshly mind is
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characterized by anxiety, restlessness, and a constant,
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exhausting need to justify itself.
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When you rely on your own ability to reason your way to
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peace, you will always be tossed back and forth by every new
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argument or cultural shift. You must stop trusting your
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shifting emotions and intuitive reactions to determine what is
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true. Your comfort level is a terrible
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gauge for objective reality. Instead, find life and peace, as
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Paul describes it, by resting entirely in Christ's perfect
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submission. Let your affections be anchored
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to the objective historical reality of the cross and the
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empty tomb. Rather than the subjective
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wavering of your own plausibility structures.
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When your heart rests in the completed work of the Savior,
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the frantic need to bend logic to justify your own existence
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fades away and. You are secure in Him, which
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frees your mind to seek truth honestly without the fear of
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what the conclusion might demand of you.
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Finally, we apply this to the hands, which represents your
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daily obedience. In Reformed theology, this is
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the third use of a law guiding grateful obedience for the
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believer. Because the Holy Spirit dwells
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in you, you now have the new capacity to submit.
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What does that action look like in real time?
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It means a discipline, immersion in the means of grace, the Word
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of God, the sacraments, and prayer.
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These are the ordinary tools the Spirit uses to continually renew
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your mind and wash away the residual belief bias of your old
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nature. It also means actively rejecting
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modern mysticism, which is the constant search for novel
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subjective revelations outside of Scripture.
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Mysticism is just another form of belief bias where you
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validate an idea simply because it gave you a spiritual thrill
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or an emotional high. Rather than testing it
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rigorously against the written word.
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In your daily life, the fundamental question must shift
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from what feels right to me to what has God commanded?
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You measure your decisions, your ethics, and your worldview by
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the absolute yardstick of Scripture.
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Trusting that God's logic is perfect, even when your flesh
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finds the conclusion uncomfortable.
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That is the practical outworking of a truly renewed mind.
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To summarize our deep dive today, we started with a
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cognitive psychology concept showing how our brains
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constantly substitute believability for logic.
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We naturally prefer the shortcut of agreement over the hard work
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of evaluation. But we did not stop at the
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psychological symptom we discovered to the theological
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root of this behavior. A fallen human nature that is
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actively rebelling against its creator.
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The unregenerate mind uses belief bias as a weapon to
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suppress the truth and maintain its own autonomy.
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We learned that this hostility is so ingrained that the natural
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man literally cannot submit to God.
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Yet we found our hope in the gospel remedy.
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The sovereign regenerating work of the Holy Spirit, who unites
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us to Christ and grants us a mind capable of life and peace.
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I want to leave you with a final thought to Mull over something
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built directly on the source material we have examined today.
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Think about the next time you are engaged in a frustrating
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debate with someone who flatly refuses to see clear biblical
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logic. How does realizing that they are
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bound by a spiritual hostility change your reaction to them?
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Instead of responding with better arguments, sharper
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rhetoric, or growing angry at their stubbornness, how might
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this reality drive you to your knees?
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If their mind is locked in total moral inability, your most
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effective response is to pray for the sovereign work of the
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Holy Spirit to open their eyes and grant them a new nature.
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That is exactly where our reliance should be.
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Thank you for joining us for this deep dive on reformed
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thinking. Keep your mind anchored in the
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Word and we will catch you next time.