Latest / The Pluralist Podcast - with Orly Erez-Likhovski and Rabbi Josh Weinberg / Two Elections, One Jewish Future: Michael Koplow on Rebuilding the U.S.–Israel Relationship
Transcript
- Michael: we've we've now been discussing the ways in which American Jews do or should take into account Israel in their own voting patterns, right? Voting for their own American elected officials. that has been characteristic of American Jews probably since the beginning of the state. Israeli Jews just don't do that. And that really has to change. And this is not to let anti-Semites off the hook, but it is simply undeniable that a lot of the discomfort that we're feeling here in the United States are because of Israeli policies. What Israel is doing in Gaza is impacting our safety and security and our just our feeling of at-homeness. So I don't expect Israelis to put American Jewish concerns at the top of their list when they vote, or even, you know, in the top 10 things American Jews have pretty much always understood the way in which our decisions impact the daily lives of Israelis. And I I am begging my Israeli relatives and friends and colleagues to start thinking about that and taking taking it seriously If there's a real break between Israeli Jews and American Jews, a real break between Israel and the United States, what the implications of that will be for Israelis at home? Orly Erez Likhovski: Welcome back to the Pluralist Podcast from both sides of the ocean. I'm Oli Erzlikovsky, Executive Director of the Israel Religious Action Center. Josh Weinberg: And I'm Rabbi Josh Weinberg, Director of ARTSA and Vice President for the Union for Reform Judaism for Israel and Reform Zionism. Great to be with you, Orly. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yes, wonderful to see you. And you know, in in just you know, a little over a week, Israelis and Americans will both head to the polls, in Israel before and in America a week after that. and while we are voting on you know in very different political systems, the choices we make in each country will have consequences on you know the other. so today we're going to look at what What is at stake for both our elections? how political changes in Israel and the US are affecting the relationship between our communities and what responsibility we have toward one another as Jews on both sides of the ocean. Josh, how are you feeling toward the elections? I know you're coming to Israel. Josh Weinberg: I'm, yes, it's, you know, just said in over a week and I was like, my gosh, that is true and it is actually happening. And, you know, I'm getting ready to fly over and do my civic duty to vote, but I'm nervous. Orly Erez Likhovski: Along alongside many, many others, we should we should say that are that are coming. Yeah. Josh Weinberg: Well, let's hope and it'll be interesting coming. I'm looking forward to the scene at JFK where we board the airplane and to see the multitudes. It'll be like a standing at Sinai moment kind of of like to see which communities are coming out from abroad and to be there then. But I'm nervous. I'm nervous. people keep saying that these are the most fateful elections that Israel has ever had. And we say that. every election, but are you feeling that right now? Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah, I don't think we're saying this er in every election. So we we it's Josh Weinberg: Okay. Orly Erez Likhovski: you know, it's like saying, you know, you know, Wolf, right? Calling for the but I I do I do think there's a growing Josh Weinberg: Crying wolf, yeah. Orly Erez Likhovski: understanding that now it is like never before and obviously it puts a huge, you know, burden and anxiety on on all of us. but I think, you know, following the news and like following the polls every day, it's just, you know, it's just nerve wracking. So I think in general the mood now is for the liberal camp to say we should be optimistic because optimist optimism and hope is contagious and we should, you know, be with this, you know, good energy, instead of just being really, really scared and really really depressed. and I do believe that, you know, we could have real political change that we we we could have, you know, it's obviously is going to be a close call and we'll probably talk about it more now, but but I think we have to be optimistic and I'm trying to work, on myself to do that and to, you know, call others to to to bring this energy though to the Josh Weinberg: Yeah. Orly Erez Likhovski: last leg of the race. Josh Weinberg: Yeah, no, I hear that and I am feeling very hopeful, even if not 100 % optimistic all the time, right? But I'm trying to get to be both hopeful and optimistic. And I think that really the ramifications for this election and for the US election will have massive impact on the world Jewish community in addition to Israel. And I think that's where our guest today is really going to, come in and bring his expertise. So it's okay. I'd love to welcome Dr. Michael Kaplow of Israel Policy Forum. Many of you will know Michael Kaplow as he's no stranger to the reform movement and to many of our webinars, programs, conferences, and his writing is all over the place. To give his official bio, Dr. Michael Kaplow is the Chief Policy Officer at Israel Policy Forum and a Senior Research Fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute of North America. Many of you will have read the Kaplow column where he examines Israeli politics, US-Israel relations, and the relationship between Israel and American Jewry. His analysis regularly connects political developments in both countries with the broader questions facing Israel and the Jewish people. And that's actually what we're here to do today. Michael has a slew of degrees from MAs and AMs and JDs and PhDs. Michael, maybe it's time to go for another degree. I what do you think? I feel like you could pad the resume a little bit more and boost up your CV, but really, Michael, it's such an honor and pleasure to welcome you to the Pluralist Podcast. How are you doing today? Michael: First, thanks for having me. And and second, you should know that when I have mentioned to my wife the possibility of getting another degree, she has threatened to call a divorce lawyer. So I I think I think I may be I may be done. Josh Weinberg: Yes. It's like when I tell Orly Erez Likhovski: Mm-hmm. Josh Weinberg: my wife I need another guitar, know, it's like, you know, it's not quite Well, great to have you. Michael: Yeah, right. Orly Erez Likhovski: so Michael, welcome. Yeah. we want to start to really understand the Israeli elections and their implications on American Jews and then we'll talk more about America and the American elections. So you know I th looking back at the you know recent years, I think both Israel and the US have faced very very similar challenges to our democracy. both Trump and Etanyao seem to be following the same playbook of, you know, populists, populist leaders, and we've really done a seen a lot of similarities, but obviously our electoral systems are very different. So we're gonna start by asking you what do Americans tend to misunderstand about Israeli elections and what do Israelists misunderstand about the elections in the US? Michael: The two countries' electoral systems are obviously very different. And so I think you have a lot of misunderstandings that go both ways. For Americans, we are used to thinking about our elections as in some ways zero-sum mandates. And that's not the case in Israel. So you often hear, for instance, Americans talking about the fact that Israelis will have elected Binami Netanyahu, and that's the the decision of of Israeli voters and we have to respect Israeli democracy. And all of that is true. But I think what Americans often don't understand is that to to reelect or in the last election to return Prime Minister Mitanyao to power meant that his party only got around 25% of the vote. And so the way we think about a democratic mandate as Americans And we superimpose it on Israeli democracy, I think is is very different. Second, I think oftentimes Americans don't understand, and it's related to the first point, don't understand the notion that in Israeli democracy, you have lots of different ways to indicate your preferences. So, for instance, let's just take the current election cycle. Let's say that you are a right-wing Israeli voter and You are very upset with the current coalition. You're upset with Prime Minister Netanyahu for for all sorts of reasons, perhaps related to October 7th, perhaps related to the Kharedi draft, but you can't bring yourself to vote for somebody on the other side. So, you know, maybe you vote for Ofer Vinter and Amcha Israel, and you and you get to express your preference that way. That doesn't really exist in the American system because again, it's a two-party system, far more zero sum. And so This notion that Israelis have a lot of different options, even just the idea that they're not voting for a person. They're going and they're putting a a slip into a ballot box that is for a party and not for an individual. I think oftentimes Americans miss the different nuances that that creates and miss the nuances of having a parliamentary system as opposed to the system we have here. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah, and I think, it's it's obviously it carries a price, right? we do have a lot of choice in Israel, but the price we pay is a lot of instability. Like a huge, Michael: Right. Orly Erez Likhovski: huge challenge of creating a coalition. I wanna remind our listeners and viewers that the change government I think was comprised of like eight parties, right? I mean it's it's insane and obviously that what makes it so fragile. And on the other hand, yeah. Josh Weinberg: And the prime minister in that change came in with only six seats. 25 % would be a dream for him. It's hard to imagine. Michael: Right. And and both and both of those things were unprecedented. That was that was the most parties to ever sit in a coalition, and it's the first time a prime minister came in like that without I believe, without having been the largest party in his or her respective coalition. Orly Erez Likhovski: Right. Right. But then also on the American side you have a more stable, form of government, but then you have to pick a side between two parties and that's not really easy, especially at the c with the current reality of the of the two parties. So it's Josh Weinberg: Right. Michael: Right. So Josh Weinberg: The example that you gave of a traditional right-wing voter in Israel is very adapted to the, think, know, of neocon or old school Reagan Republican in America who, you know, either held their nose and voted Trump or couldn't bring themselves to do that or had to figure out what to do. Right. The notion of political homelessness, I think, is really being felt by many. Would you agree or do you? Michael: I I think it's being felt by a lot of people. And this is an area where when we when we talk about what Israelis don't necessarily understand about American elections, for Josh Weinberg: Mmm. Michael: for a lot of American Jewish voters, increasingly, there is a real tension between what is important to you. Because again, we only effectively have two choices, right? Sometimes you, you know, may have an independent running, but for the most part, we have two choices. And what that means is that you can't go looking for the party. On your side of the political aisle that maybe represents your niche interests better, right? You you basically have to sort of take the sum total of everything and decide what's more important. And one of the things that a lot of American Jewish voters are now facing is what do we care about more? Do we care about American domestic issues and protection of democracy, or do we care about Having elected officials who will sustain a strong US as a relationship and who view Israel as an ally and and not in some cases almost as a as a hostile country. And so many conversations I've had over the last decade when I'm in Israel with Israelis are they they just can't understand why it is that American Jews don't love President Trump, aren't just flocking to him, right? And they say, I I we don't understand. He's He's so good for Israel. He has, you know, Jewish, Jewish grandkids and and a Jewish daughter. How can you not vote for him? And the and Orly Erez Likhovski: But but do you hear this from do you hear this from liberal Israelis? Michael: I hear it from Israelis of all stripes. I I'd say less so this term than during his first term. But during his first term, I heard it liberal Israelis too. And I I I think that also goes to the sort of this misunderstanding about the American political system, where we really have to make a zero-sum choice, oftentimes, in a way that Israelis don't. And for the overwhelming majority of American Jews in every single poll. It's not Israel issues or even Jewish issues that are top of mind. It's American domestic issues. Josh Weinberg: Absolutely. the same way many Israelis confronted me and asked, how could any Jew have voted for Mamdani, for instance, in New York in the mayoral election? how could that wouldn't, you know, a significant number of the Jewish population in New York did vote for him. And that's, it's a hard disconnect. And I want to pick up on that disconnect because I feel like, I feel like many Israelis are really still living the trauma of October 7th. You we just marked the third anniversary of it and even the Gregorian date, you the date of the elections and people say October 27th, you know, like, you know, making that connection between the election date and the culpability or, you know, taking account of the responsibility for October 7th is very clear. And I think that at least in our circles, many liberal American Jews view the treatment of Palestinians and Israel's conduct in the war and the sort of seems to be out of control settler violence is a major issue that what can you do? It undermines Israel's international legitimacy and threatens its long-term future. And it feels like it's not really on the mind of mainstream Israelis. And so how do we understand this disconnect? Are we... Are we fundamentally disagreeing about what poses the greatest threat to Israel's future? Or how do we help Americans understand where Israelis are and, you know, that broad, obviously there are exceptions, but, you know, I think it's a big, for me, this is like the central point and I just want to get your take on it and, how you're seeing these things play out. Michael: This divide has existed for a long time, but obviously October 7th really widened it. And I think it goes in many ways to the question for Israeli Jews versus American Jews of what is the purpose of a Jewish state? For Israeli Jews who are actually living in that Jewish state, it's pretty simple. It's it's to protect Jewish lives in Israel and to really be not just not just a homeland in theory. Let's be an actual safe haven. And of course, Israelis are consumed with security and consumed with the ongoing trauma of the October seventh attacks. And so the notion that you would give Hamas any sort of break in Gaza or allow them to rebuild or really take any major risks in order to Assuage what the rest of the world thinks. I think for for many Israelis, that's just a it's it's a difficult thing to absorb. Whereas a lot of American Jews look at Israel and they say, we don't live there and we probably never will. And what's important to us is that Israel as a Jewish state reflects our Jewish values. And it's a it's a very different conversation. So if you're an Israeli and you look at what's happened in Gaza, you say, well, Hamas started this and They killed 1200 Israelis and abducted 250 more, and they're still in control of about a third of the Gaza Strip and they're rebuilding. And how can we take any risks? Whereas if you're an American Jew, you look at it very differently. You say, you know, for the most part, you say, yes, of course, October 7th was was terrible and horrific, and there needed to be an Israeli response, but we're having a very difficult time wrapping our heads around the fact that you have almost 80,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza and Even if the there's a debate over the ratio of of fighters to civilians, but it's, by any measure still more civilians than non-civians. And most of the strip is destroyed, and Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. Michael: Palestinians are herded into an increasingly small area without access to basic goods or to the outside world. And this does not look to many American Jews as the embodiment of Jewish values or how a Jewish state should should act. And so again, this this divide is not new. I think this is something that's been playing out for a long time. But October seventh has picked at it in the most harmful possible way. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I I I I agree. I think that you know, as Joss said, we really just marked the third anniversary for October seventh. And I think Israeli society is still deep in that trauma. So we are not even past that trauma. maybe once we finally have a state commission of inquiry where s we will start the healing process. I think for many Israeli it's very hard to see any real progress in you know in general with the Israeli Palestinian conflict. And I think because so many terrible things are happening, atrocities really in the West Bank, and and and in Gaza, I think a lot of Israelis try to distance themselves from that because it's very hard to understand that those things are being done in our name. and so I think this is why Israelis don't think about it at all, both because of fear, because of, you know, sort of trying to distance ourselves from that and are thinking about other phenomena that have been the result of of this very extremist government, including, issues of democracy, issues of, you know, to some extent, religion state. and you know, in the end it boils down to basically a personal contest, right, between the contestants, right, between Atanyao and mostly Isencott. I think a lot of Americans maybe are unaware that it's not there's not a lot of substantive discussion, right? I mean, it's a lot of you know personality things and who says what about who. But but I think that we definitely see this gap, as you said, that has really grown in the sense that the relationship between liberal Jews in in North America and Israel is mostly influenced by the issues in the West Bank and the war and the whole you know fight for democracy, and maybe less so with regard to issues that once were the very major issues that liberal Jews care about in the States, which is, more of religion state issues, which people still care about, but maybe it's not the top of the list. Josh Weinberg: that might feature really prominently in these elections. even though they don't personally vote on this, this could determine the power and the ability to maintain the monopoly and religion of the Haredi parties. I'm just building on what you said, or sorry. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. Yeah. So w on the one hand are the issues that North American Jews care about, on the other hand there are issues that may we may see change if there is change if in government. And I wanna ask you, like for Americans who are following these elections, h how do you explain what are the political alternatives on those issues? Like what w which way could could, you know, it goes according to who, you know, gets more vote in the election? Michael: I think the the trend you identified where there isn't a lot of conversation or even all that much distance between, let's say, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Gaudi Eisencoat in talking about Iran or Gaza, or I think there's probably more difference in the way they talk about the West Bank. But the fact that there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between these two sides is definitely being picked up on in the United States, where Increasingly, particularly on the left, you see this skepticism that a new government in Israel will actually change anything. This idea that that all the problems should be laid at Prime Minister Netanyahu's feet and and if there's a different government, things things will shift and things will be better. In particular in the last few months, there's just so much more skepticism on the left here in the United States that that's the case and that anything will change. And I think a lot of cynicism About what a new government may or may not do. And when I talk to American audiences and people want to know if there's a new government, what will they do differently on the issues that that matter within the context of American politics? I try to I I try to prepare people for the fact that on something like Iran, there there's really no difference between the the Netanyahu block and the opposition block. On something like Lebanon, really No real difference between the Netanyahu bloc and and the opposition bloc. There are small differences, I think, on Gaza. I think there are larger differences on the West Bank. But within the context of American politics, I think there's this hope that if a different government comes to power, Israel may shift course dramatically. And I don't think there's going to be a dramatic shift in these issues, no matter what happens. You know, there there will be small shifts in some areas. But I think there's a lot of expectation setting that actually has to happen about if there's a new government, and I'm I I I frankly I I hope that there is, if there's a new government, what that new government is actually going to be able to accomplish. Josh Weinberg: it depends on just depends Orly Erez Likhovski: go, go ahead. Josh Weinberg: on so many factors is that, know, we saw the change government and, know, was just attacked every single day by Netanyahu who was sitting in the opposition. It was almost like it reminded me of like a hockey game where he was sitting in the penalty box for 18 months, you know, whatever, and just, you know, constantly hammering away at the fragile coalition. And so obviously we'll see. But I think the big difference is, you know, the inclusion of the right and the far extremist right into the coalition would say, Orly Erez Likhovski: I wanted just to relate to what Michael said, and to say Josh Weinberg: Please, yeah, yeah. Orly Erez Likhovski: that I I agree that it's obviously not going to be like right a one-day change in how Israel is perceived, but I think that even on like the rhetoric level, right? I mean we have seen horrible things expressed by the government ministers, right? About you know, horrible racist remarks. and I I I do think that if we have a government which is much more moderate and rational, even if we would not hear those but we would hear different voices, right? I mean, even if the actions would not be very different, I think that could start, you know, a process of change. definitely within Israel, you know, having a government that sees its goal to work toward the good of its citizens and not for itself, and also the out, you know, like outside. how how it is perceived. I I I think that even as a declaratory in a declaratory manner it could it could look differently. And it's true that they would have to prove themselves, right? Because there is you know so much to do and obviously it depends on their priorities because there's so many things that need to be fixed. But I I do believe and hope that it could start a process through which there will be some kind of an effect on how Israel is perceived. Michael: I think that's right when it comes to ordinary Americans. You know, if you don't have Batzala Smotric saying let's erase Hawara, if you don't have Amicha Ili saying let's drop a nuclear bomb on Gaza, you know, if you don't have Ariz Strook talking about October 7th as a time of miracles, if you don't have every time Itamar Benvir opens his mouth, something, you know, something damaging, I think that all of that will definitely help. But I've gotta say, as somebody who, you know, i it sits in Washington, DC and spends Majority of my time with policymakers, there's definitely a real sense that there may be a shift in tone, but that if there isn't a tangible shift in policy, it's only going to go so far. And so I also think that the gap between what may help things in terms of Israel's perception in the United States with ordinary Americans who are not following these things day to day, right? They're sort of absorbing. the most extreme and radical things that they that they hear and that they see, you know, that's one important population. And I agree with you. I think that just a change of personalities, a change of rhetoric, a change of tone, that will help a lot with with your regular American who why why should why should most Americans even know the names Itamar Benfir Batellas Motric? But for policymakers, members of Congress, members of of this and and future administrations, There's definitely gonna have to be some real policy change for Israel to recover some of what is lost. Josh Weinberg: Well, let me flip the question on you because sometimes policy change takes a long time. What happens on November 3rd if it is clear that Netanyahu won on October 27th? How does that impact American policy and the American voter as they go to the ballot box, even for midterm elections? Michael: I don't know that it will impact the midterm elections as much. it may in some races on the margins. You've got a lot of candidates who are running on an anti-Israel platform in terms of their foreign policy, but that was a bigger issue for the most part in democratic primaries than it was in the general election. Now, again, not the case in every race. You I I think we can, you know, easily point to some Senate races where this is still very much a live issue and If Netanyahu somehow walks away after October 27th with a clear pathway to forming a new government, then, you know, in the Michigan Senate race, for instance, this is just going to be a very big talking point. But for the most part, I don't think it's going to impact the midterms. It absolutely will impact policy because we've seen a lot of bills just over the last year coming from Democrats in the House and Senate that take a much harsher and In in some cases, unprecedented approach to Israel and to Israeli policy than we've seen before. Those are basically messaging bills because Republicans control the Senate and Republicans control the House. And of course, Donald Trump is still president. But if you have a Netanyahu government that is pursuing all the same policies, and you have a Democratic House andor a Democratic Senate, then you're going to see these bills pass. The president may veto them, so they won't actually become law. But you will see them actually pass one or both chambers of Congress. And you're also gonna see a greater willingness to introduce measures that that bring up sanctions, that bring up arms Josh Weinberg: I'm excited about this thing. Michael: embargoes, all all of the things that we've seen sort of on steroids. So Josh Weinberg: Do you want to give us an example actually? Like are you talking about Castro? you about Whispering Violence Prevention Act? Michael: Sure, so sure. So, you know, there there's the the easiest example, I think, is the 502B vote that happened in the Senate a couple of weeks ago. So, you know, that is a provision that applies to any country that receives American security assistance, where if if there are found to be gross human rights violations, then there are all sorts of measures that will cut off arm sales. And The last time a 502B measure was brought up with regards to Israel was in, I believe, January 2024. And eleven senators voted to effectively hold Israel to account. You had 10 Democrats and Rand Paul. It came up again a couple of weeks ago. And this time, every single Democratic senator, not named John Fetterman, voted to have a report examining Israeli alleged. Gross human rights violations by Israel in the West Bank. And it was dealing with nine Palestinians who are US citizens who have been killed in the past four years in the West Bank, either by the IDF or by settlers, and with Palestinian children who have been detained and are in Israeli prisons. Now, because you had all the Democrats minus John Fetterman plus Rand Paul, that meant that you only got to 47. And so it didn't pass. But that's an example of something that Saw enormous movement just in just in two years. You Josh Weinberg: It's telling, I mean, it's telling, right? Yeah. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. Yeah. Michael: you mentioned you mentioned Castro. That's another bill that was introduced. And that's a bill that would place mandatory sanctions on anybody involved in Israel expanding any existing settlement or building any new settlement. Right. So we're not just talking about establishing, like this Israeli government has done 104 new settlements. We're talking about, you know, you build one new house in Mala Dumim. or in Modi and Elite, places that are that are going to be part of Israel in any future agreement with the Palestinians, man mandatory, mandatory sanctions, right? And that's Josh Weinberg: census areas or whatever. Yeah. Michael: something that even a year ago I think would have been unimaginable. Now, that bill hasn't come to a vote, but if Democrats control the House, it will come to a vote in in the next Congress. And it's going to my prediction is that it's going to attract more Democrats who vote for it. Than those who oppose it. So these are the sorts of things that we're seeing. And I just cannot stress enough that if there is another Netanyahu-led right-wing government in Israel, these things are going to become the norm and they're going to be flying fast and furious. And they're they're going to become less and less controversial over time. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah, I think I think not enough Israelis understand that. Netanyahu has, cultivated his image as, a master in, foreign relations and he know how to give wonderful speeches. And I think not a lot of Israelis understand how bad the status of Israel now is, not only in the eyes of the Democratic Party, but also, you know, starting with Republican Party as well. And and I want You to to to to to relate to that about how what do you think Israelis don't know about, what you just described and about the repercussions that could, get cause the situation to be even worse, should the government not change in Israel. Michael: I think as you note, Israelis tend to be concerned about what Democrats are doing. And like I said, if you have another government that looks like this, the bottom is going to fall out with Democrats. But Israel has a problem with Republicans as well. And it's partially because of the isolationists movement within the Republican Party. Effectively the president's even if even if he sort of takes a different tack, the president's MAGA America First movement is An isolationist movement, and it is very distrustful of American interventions abroad. And there's also certainly anti-Semitism wrapped up in it. And that wing of the party just views Israel as a bad actor, views Israel kind of in the most extreme cases, if you listen to Tucker Carlson or Candace Owens as manipulating American foreign policy. Josh Weinberg: Even JD Vance, feel like is this better. Yeah. Yeah Michael: Right. J JD Vance has has made comments about how American foreign policy cannot be subservient, or America's Middle East policy cannot be subservient to Israel. So, you see this in that wing of the party. And you saw this before before February twenty-eighth of this year. February twenty-eighth is significant because that is when the United States and Israel launched their joint war against Iran. And that has really supercharged this idea on the Republican side. Where people now delve into all sorts of conspiracy theories about Netanyahu somehow hoodwinking Trump and convincing him to launch a war that he didn't want to launch. Tucker Carlson, by the way, has said this explicitly, says that he knows for a fact that President Trump right, that that that that President Josh Weinberg: You presented this fact. Yeah, I love that. Yeah. Michael: Trump did not want to go to war, but felt like he felt like he had to, right? With this sort of unspoken unspoken insinuation that somehow the Israelis are blackmailing President Trump. and so The Iran War has actually done a lot of damage to Israel among Republicans too. And again, this is not a new thing. If you look at the pew poll of American attitudes from earlier this year, where they always every year, sometimes more than once a year, they ask about favorability toward Israel. Republicans under the age of fifty have a net unfavorable view of Israel. so this isn't just a problem. With democrats, and it's not just a problem with young people, right? I I Josh Weinberg: Say that line again because it was really important and I want our listeners to just let it sink in for a second about Republicans. Michael: Yeah, a a majority of Republicans under the age of 50 have a an unfavorable view of Israel. And again, we're not talking about 20 year olds, right? I'm I'm 47 years old. I don't think of myself as a young person. So, you know, we're talking about Republicans under the age of 50. basically the only demographic left that has a net favorable view of Israel in this country are Republicans 50 and up. When you look at young people. Whether they're Democrats or Republicans, it gets very dicey for Israel. And even when you look at at middle-aged Americans, it's very dicey for Israel. So Israel has a real problem. And the in some ways, and I've I've spoken about this and and written about this, in some ways, if I were Israeli, I would be more worried about the problem with Republicans than I would be with Democrats, because the problem with Democrats is very much connected to specific policies. Democrats want to see things different in the West Bank. They want to see things different in Gaza. They want Israel to recommit to a two-state process. Republicans, for the most part, don't necessarily care about those things. They just view Israel generally, no matter who is leading it, as a drag on US foreign policy. They view Israel as constantly for decades pulling the US into conflicts in the Middle East, irrespective of who the prime minister is and what the policies of the government are. And that's a much harder problem to fix. So, you know, free advice free, free, Josh Weinberg: Juicy scenario. Michael: free advice, free advice for the next Israeli government. Like think Josh Weinberg: Yeah Michael: think about these two groups and and where you can actually make some progress. Josh Weinberg: And you see a situation in which a Republican-led Congress could support sanctions or could support even conditional foreign aid. Michael: I don't think we're there yet. I think that Josh Weinberg: Yeah. Michael: this process is is it's a it's a few years behind in the Republican Party where the Democrats are. But you know, on one of those things, you know, you mentioned foreign assistance. So the the current 10-year memorand memorandum of understanding between the United States and Israel that provides $3.8 billion every year for 10 years in security assistance, that expires in 2028. Now Josh Weinberg: it in. Michael: Normally the next MOU would have already been negotiated and the terms would be out there and it it would maybe even already be signed. That's what happened 10 years ago when the current MOU Josh Weinberg: Obama. Michael: was negotiated by the Obama administration. There may be some negotiations going on behind the scenes that that are being kept very quiet. And I should stress that foreign policy in this administration is run by like five people. So The truth is, nobody really knows what's going on. But you had all this talk about an MOU a few months ago, and then it stopped. And on the Republican side as well, the idea that the US is still going to give security assistance to Israel in such big numbers and so routinely and automatically is coming under a lot of stress from Republicans too. And I don't think it should, it should escape notice that under this administration, a Republican one, And under a president who most Israelis would say is the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House, we're now almost at 2027 and there is no new MOU. And there's not a lot of talk about it in in Congress either. There's not a lot of chatter about it in DC. It doesn't mean that it won't happen, but the point is that even something like security assistance to Israel is not nearly as popular with Republicans anymore as it once was. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah, and we sh we should say that Netanyahu has been, saying that, we should Israel should move to more of an independence and actually not rely on security assistance from the state, which is really does not connect to his vision of constant war and you know, the fact that we just you know Israeli economy w I don't think would be able to sustain itself with the Khariri population not working. So, you know, the numbers don't end and I I but he's been voicing this this opinion as well, you know, in in in the recent month. Michael: He ha he has, but but I think it's important to note that when he talks about it, he talks about having another 10 year MOU that winds that security assistance down over time. And there's a real danger that that even that, if you're if you're the Israeli government, even that won't happen, that there just may not be another MOU. That the sort of idea of a 10 year slow window may even be too much for the American political system at this point. Josh Weinberg: which I think is an issue that's capitalized on both the left and the right. The left is saying, well, look, even Netanyahu said we should wind that down. So how are you sort of moderate or mainstream, especially Jewish, liberal, but Democrats, Democrats who are not in the fringe and not part of the squad? And you get the, think at least for the reform movement, this is where I see the main center. who has always pushed for continuing foreign aid and for an MOU and for assistance and cooperation and for us sanctioned, not sanctioned, but a sort of a restriction or conditionalization foreign aid has been a red line for us. How... How should we wrap our heads around this one? mean, this is a really tough one for us, I think. And it's going to be moving more. We're seeing what J Street is putting out, and we're seeing the red lines that APAC are setting firmly. For those of us in the center, or even left of center, how do we navigate this, I think? Yeah. Michael: It's tough to navigate, and and I think that I think that there are two things that must be separated from each other. So one is the question of security assistance. Is the United States still going to provide Israel with a large pot of money for it to buy American weapons? And as I said, the the answer to that over time is absolutely going to be no. It's it's not going to continue the way that it has. Maybe it'll be wound down, as as the prime minister has spoken about, and maybe Two years from now, that will just be the end and it will happen on a case by case basis. That's a separate issue, security assistance, from the question of what will the United States even sell to Israel? Right. So not giving Israel US dollars to buy it. But if Israel comes to the United States and says, Hey, we want to buy F-35s, we want to buy cruise missiles, we want to buy Iron Dome interceptors. What happens then? And I think that's actually where the real conversation is headed. Because as I said, the situation security assistance honestly sort of seems to be seems to be done. And now the question is, will the United States sell Israel anything it wants? Will the United States sell Israel what it wants, but put conditions on how it can be used? Will the United States only sell Israel defensive weapons? Or as some folks who are running for Senate have have called for? Will the United States not sell Israel anything? even defensive weapons and even in the middle of a war. So when we think about where the conversation is moving, I worry, not the reform movement specifically, but I worry that American Jews writ large are still stuck in kind of the previous conversation where everything is about security assistance. Are we going to condition the assistance? That's not where the next fight is going. Right. The the next fight, and maybe it's actually the current fight, is about what we allow the Israelis ch to just purchase on their own. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. I I wanna talk move a little bit to talk about American Jewish voters. And you know, we know that many American Jews are committed to the Democratic Party and they are deeply connected to Israel, but also obviously critical of the current govern Israeli government. And and I wanna ask you, how do you think American Jews should evaluate candidates with their political commitments and the relationship to Israel? Pull them in different directions. Michael: I don't think that there's a one size fits all answer. I I can give you I can give you my answer, which works for me, but but doesn't necessarily, or I shouldn't say doesn't necessarily does not work for everybody. From my perspective, because I'm an American voter, and you know, we talked about this up top, you kind of have to make a choice, right? It can't it can't just be about one issue, at least for me. And so There are lots of candidates out there who are saying things that I don't like and that I don't agree with when it comes to Israel, who take a much harsher view of not not this government, but take a much harsher view of of Israel itself than I do. And as I said, I I find much of it very disconcerting. But I think that there for me is a line where somebody who understands How important Israel is to American Jewish identity. And somebody who understands that that when you just try to lift up anti-Zionist Jews, you're you're simply not representing where most of the American Jewish community is. And somebody who is not Jewish but but tries to weigh in on what constitutes a good Jew versus a bad Jew when it comes to their commitments with regard to Israel, that's somebody. A candidate like that is never going to be somebody that I'm comfortable voting for, even if I agree with him or her on every single issue under the sun. Because for me, Israel is an incredibly important component, not just of my Jewish identity, but of my identity as a person in all facets and all aspects. But as I said, that's not going to work for a lot of people because there are lots of American Jews, and I completely respect this opinion, who say, We're living in the United States and Donald Trump represents an existential threat to American democracy. And if Republicans control the Senate, then that's only going to make everything here worse. So it sort of doesn't matter what any individual or group of candidates say about Israel or say about Israel as a Jewish state or or say about Zionism, what's much more important is to protect democracy. Like I said, I I I I right. Josh Weinberg: Yeah, that's the hand he have unchecked and unbalanced power that will have. Michael: Right. And and I hear that and I and I respect that I respect that opinion. And like I said, I I don't think there's a one size fits all answer. And I also think that there should be a distinction between what office people are are are running for. I mean, I I'll tell you like just sort of from my my my own my own past past voting pattern. I generally vote for Democrats, not always. But generally, because that's who I that's who I generally agree with. I had a Democratic governor, I had a Republican governor of Maryland who who I voted for twice for for both of his terms. I thought he was a I thought he was a a great governor and I voted for him twice without even thinking about it. He then ran for Senate. and this was this was two years ago, when running for Senate meant giving Donald Trump, because I assumed he was gonna win the presidency, That meant giving him Republican Senate. And so I couldn't vote for this candidate when he was running for Senate, but I was happy to vote for him for governor. And I think that, that's something that people have to weigh too, right? a senator has more power than a member of Congress. A member of Congress is far more relevant to foreign policy than your local mayor or county executive. I think all of these things matter and the distinctions matter. And everybody has to figure out what is most important to them. And like I said, I really don't judge people's decisions and and their voting patterns because everybody weighs things differently. But for me, given how important Israel is to me and how important it is to my identity, I really have a very difficult time voting for somebody who who doesn't understand or even respect the role that Israel plays for American Jews. Josh Weinberg: And do you think that the, thinking about the, the, the, the, the political, the realm of the candidates and that, but I want to think about also the role of the established, what I call the OJC, right? The Organized Jewish Community and the Establishment Jewish Community. Do you think that the mainstream Jewish organizations are hearing enough? And I think that they wield a good sense of power when it comes to, influence on administration and on policy. Do you think that they're listening enough to the liberal, let's say the broad liberal population of American Jews who are really upset with what they see coming out of Israel and are deeply troubled by, you know, the policies of the Israeli government, especially with the West Bank? and are thinking about that vis-a-vis their own support for Israel and their own support for candidates in the United States. it seems to me like they are also stuck in the decade's talking points and arguments. How are you seeing that as sort of an analyst of also the American Jewish scene? Michael: I think that's largely an accurate portrayal of of the American Jewish establishment versus you know what we know about American Jewish attitudes. I I think that a lot of American Jewish organizations are also in a difficult spot. A, because you know, we talk about the American Jewish community as a as a monolith, and I I don't think we should. and I think oftentimes we think about American Jews as a as a group, and then that's not necessarily the same thing as as the As the engaged American Jewish community, let's say. And I think oftentimes American Jewish establishment institutions are representing the most engaged portion of the American Jewish community. And that oftentimes is a population that tends to be more right wing, more hawkish on Israel issues, putting more of a premium on positions toward Israel within the American political context. So I think that's that's one disconnect. And I think another disconnect is that American Jewish organizations are for the most part by definition pro-Israel. And so that means different things to different organizations and different things to different people. But I think it's it's a lot easier for an individual American Jew to look at what's going on in Israel and say, I I want no part of this. that's much harder for American Jewish organizations. So I I think This isn't to let American Jewish organizations off the hook by any means. I think that many of them need to do a better job of representing their constituents and really thinking through what American Jews care about and and what they're what they're telling their organizational Jewish leaders. But I recognize that for a lot of organizations, this is a this is a tough world to live in and it's only becoming tougher. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. yeah, thank you for that. I we're we're nearing the end. but I do want to ask you about responsibility for one another. I I think that after October seventh, it it seems to me there has been a renewed sense of solidarity between Israelis and diaspora Jews, despite a lot of disagreements. and you argued you wrote with David Hoprin that Israeli voters should consider how their political choices affect American Jews. And I want to ask you how how how do you think it affects and what do you think Israelis should think about when they go to the ballot, thinking about our brothers and sisters in the diaspora? Michael: I feel about this very strongly. So, we've we've now been discussing for 10, 15 minutes the ways in which American Jews do or should take into account Israel in their own voting patterns, right? Voting for their own American elected officials. And that's something that has been characteristic of American Jews and the American Jewish community for decades, probably since the beginning of the state. Israeli Jews just don't do that. They they They do not think about the ways in which Israel and Israeli policy is impacting the day-to-day lives of American Jews. And that really has to change. If we're going have any sustained sense of peoplehood and partnership, more and more the decisions of Israeli governments and the things that Israel does impact our daily lives here. There is no synagogue attending American Jew. Who has not seen security measures at their shoal exponentially rise over the last 10 years? I was, I was president of my shoal, I can tell you the the amount of time, even worse after I did it, my wife did it. So we're we're both we're both suckers for Josh Weinberg: Sorry to hear that. my gosh. Michael: punishment. but I I can tell you from first hand experience that just the amount of time and energy and money devoted, and this was before October 7th, devoted to security, just Israelis wouldn't wouldn't even believe it. And that's the case at all American Jewish institutions. The fact that American Jews now, I think, really for the first time, think about how they are showing up Jewishly in public. Because if you wear a kippah, you're far more hyper aware now that you're wearing it on your head. If you wear a Magin David around your neck, you're far more hyper aware that you're wearing that around your neck. Outward Jewish symbols that people didn't use to Think about it as presenting any sort of danger or problem, that's now something American Jews have to think about. And this is not to let anti-Semites off the hook, but it is simply undeniable that a lot of the discomfort that we're feeling here in the United States and a lot of the challenges we're facing are because of Israeli policies. You don't have to believe that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, and I don't, to think that. What Israel is doing in Gaza is impacting our safety and security here in the United States and our just our feeling of at-homeness. So I don't expect Israelis to put American Jewish concerns at the top of their list when they vote, or even, you know, in the top 10 things they care about, or even the top necessarily 50 things they care about. I just want Israelis to start thinking a little bit about how the decisions they make impact us here because. American Jews have pretty much always understood the way in which our decisions impact the daily lives of Israelis. And maybe that wasn't always a a two-way street in reality, but now it absolutely is. And I I am begging my Israeli relatives and friends and colleagues to start thinking about that and taking taking it seriously and thinking through the implications of what it will mean. If there's a real break between Israeli Jews and American Jews, which by the way will also lead to a real break between Israel and the United States, what the implications of that will be for Israelis at home? Orly Erez Likhovski: Well yeah, I I think you're you're touching obviously on the very sensitive question of the difference between anti Semitism and criticism of Israel, right, in the US. And you know, it goes back to the question whether, you know, a lot of people have jumped on this, you know, wagon of problematic Israeli policies to actually bring out, you know, anti Semitic rhetoric and actions. And it goes back also to the question how how quickly could it change, right? Even if we have a different Israeli government, whether, those anti Semitic attacks are going to disappear or whether it does show something that is deeper in American life and American societies that that is out there and would not disappear, right, in a second. So I think that's sort of a very sensitive question. is all yeah, Josh. Josh Weinberg: Well, Orly, just, well, let's just add that maybe we should re-record this in Hebrew also for an Israeli audience, because I think that's really, you know, the point of why we are having this conversation in essence is to try and bridge some of these important gaps. And so I'm looking at you, Orly, as an Israeli sitting here listening to everything and, you know, maybe that's for the next episode that we do. But, you know, the really important conversations. I just want to say thank you to Michael. Yeah. Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. Yeah, yeah, completely. And we're in g getting to the end and we always try to end with an optimistic note, but we're not forcing it, right? So so we do want to ask you, looking ahead on both our elections, are you optimistic in general? Are you optimistic around the strengthening the connection between Israel and American Jewry and Israel and the US in gener in general? how do you see things going forward? Michael: I am optimistic. I I think that this Israeli government has been unprecedentedly disastrous for Israelis themselves, for Palestinians, for US Israel relations, certainly for American Jews and their connection to Israel. And let's hope I won't regret regret saying this in 11 Orly Erez Likhovski: Yeah. Michael: days from now, but it is it it's nearly impossible for me to see a path for Prime Minister Netanyahu to Create a new governing coalition. Now, that doesn't mean he won't remain as a caretaker prime minister if there's a deadlock. I think that's probably the likeliest scenario. But the idea of him forming a new government and getting another four years, like I said, that seems virtually impossible to me. And any other iteration, whether it's strip down caretaker government until another election in March or April, or A government that is formed by the current opposition bloc, that will be better for everybody, as far as I'm concerned. So I am optimistic on on that front. And I think that if there is a change in Israel, as we've talked about, a a change in face will will be important. Changes in policy will be will be even more important. But whatever happens, if there is a change at all, we will start to lay the foundation for. A healthier relationship between American Jews and Israel, something that I desperately would like to see, and hopefully lay the foundation for better Israeli policy on the issues that the three of us really care about, whether it's Israeli-Palestinian issues or domestic issues inside of Israel, or just the the way in which Israel thinks about and treats American Jews, I think all of those will improve. And not going to improve overnight by any means, but progress has to start somewhere. And I really do think that. We are potentially on the doorstep of being able to begin that that progress. Orly Erez Likhovski: Amen. Amen. Yeah, exactly. And you know, I you Josh Weinberg: Man, from your mouth, yeah. Orly Erez Likhovski: know no matter what happens, I think we are all going to continue to work for Israel, which is both a safe home for Jews, but also a light on two nations, which really exemplifies the values that we believe in. thank you so much, Michael, for this really eye-opening session. it was it was super interesting and Conversations like this are exactly why we started this podcast. This podcast exists because we believe Israel can be better for all who live here and for all who care about it from afar. But that takes honest conversation and it takes partnership. So if these conversations are important to you, please share this episode and help us keep the conversation going. Josh Weinberg: to stay up to date, subscribe on YouTube, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you'd like to help us grow, make an engaging post on social media or leave a five-star review. Maybe something like, until I listen to the Pluralist podcast, I wasn't really optimistic about the outcome. And I want to join Michael Kaplow in begging the Israeli population to take us into consideration when they head to the ballot box on October 27th and to begin. bridging the gaps between Israeli and American Jewish society. You don't have to use that verbatim, but something like that. And then send this podcast to someone who should be part of this conversation. Help us by sponsoring an episode and keep on listening to the Pluralist Podcast. Orly Erez Likhovski: Thank you so much. Mm, Josh Weinberg: to the arbor. Orly Erez Likhovski: bye bye.