Latest / Trillions / Wall Street’s Plan to Make Sports an Investable Asset
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.
- 0:09Speaker 2: Apollo Sports Capital recently produced a report saying sports is
- 0:12Speaker 2: a $ 2. 5 trillion market. Our own research, we think there's
- 0:16Speaker 2: about $ 650 billion per annum invested into sports across ticketing,
- 0:21Speaker 2: media rights, merch. We're speaking to every league. Every league
- 0:24Speaker 2: that you can think of. The subset for us globally
- 0:28Speaker 2: is probably about 15 leagues.
- 0:33Speaker 3: Welcome to Trillions. I'm Eric Balchunas.
- 0:35Speaker 4: And Joel Weber, who normally does this intro, is out
- 0:39Speaker 4: this week. He's at a wedding. So I'm going to
- 0:42Speaker 4: basically run point this episode. But I have a great
- 0:45Speaker 4: co-pilot in Vildana Hyrek from Bloomberg News. Hi, Vildana.
- 0:50Speaker 1: Hi.
- 0:50Speaker 5: Thanks so much for having me.
- 0:52Speaker 3: Good to have you here. This is a great topic
- 0:54Speaker 3: for both of us.
- 0:55Speaker 5: For both of us.
- 0:56Speaker 4: I've been wanting to cover this for a while. Vildana
- 0:58Speaker 4: and I look at all the new filings with... And
- 1:02Speaker 4: we love looking at what the industry is coming up with.
- 1:05Speaker 4: And over the last two months, we've seen a bunch
- 1:08Speaker 4: of filings for sports teams ETFs. For example, like an
- 1:11Speaker 4: ETF for the Philadelphia Flyers, an ETF for baseball. So
- 1:15Speaker 4: it would be like the New York Mets. And there's
- 1:18Speaker 4: been multiple issuers filing for all of these different sports
- 1:22Speaker 4: teams ETFs, including leveraged. And this is really a new
- 1:26Speaker 4: potential world opening up here. Some people are skeptical. But
- 1:31Speaker 4: we wanted to talk to the people who are behind this.
- 1:33Speaker 4: The ETFs aren't out yet, but the index makers, they're
- 1:36Speaker 4: called Future Sports.
- 1:38Speaker 3: And what do you make of this?
- 1:40Speaker 6: I think it's really exciting wherever there is white space
- 1:44Speaker 6: within the ETF world. We have so many ETFs already.
- 1:48Speaker 6: And anytime that somebody comes up with a new way
- 1:53Speaker 6: to put something into the ETF wrapper, an innovative way,
- 1:56Speaker 6: so to say, I do think it's worth paying attention
- 1:59Speaker 6: to because then each time it's a test case of
- 2:03Speaker 6: whether or not it takes, whether or not people are
- 2:05Speaker 6: interested in it, whether or not they actually put their
- 2:08Speaker 6: money towards it.
- 2:09Speaker 4: Yeah, I tell people all the time, this is capitalism
- 2:11Speaker 4: in action. There's so many flows going into ETFs. Of course,
- 2:16Speaker 4: you're going to have people trying things. In this case,
- 2:18Speaker 4: it's almost like they invented new white space because I
- 2:20Speaker 4: wasn't thinking about sports and investing, but they're going to
- 2:23Speaker 4: make their case. And so I am joined, let me see,
- 2:26Speaker 4: We are joined today by Lee Tailforth, who is co-founder
- 2:30Speaker 4: of Future Sports, and Jody Gunsberg, who is head of
- 2:33Speaker 4: index services. Lee and Jody are here with us in
- 2:36Speaker 4: the studio. This week on Trillions, sports ETFs. All right,
- 2:47Speaker 4: let's just jump right in. I want to start with you, Lee.
- 2:49Speaker 4: You're one of the co-founders.
- 2:51Speaker 3: How do you come up with this idea and why?
- 2:55Speaker 2: So it's myself and a co-founder guy that I'm good
- 2:58Speaker 2: mates with, both ex-traders, 20 plus years in derivatives trading.
- 3:02Speaker 2: We were coming out of COVID and I guess the
- 3:04Speaker 2: best way to describe it was we were probably bored.
- 3:08Speaker 2: We'd had a black swan style event with COVID. We
- 3:10Speaker 2: thought that the financial markets didn't kind of behave like
- 3:14Speaker 2: they would have or didn't move in equilibrium. We had
- 3:16Speaker 2: central banks and central governments getting their hands involved and
- 3:20Speaker 2: making sure the markets kind of stayed at a certain level.
- 3:23Speaker 2: We decided it was time for a change for us.
- 3:25Speaker 2: So we started tooling around with some ideas. We were
- 3:28Speaker 2: living in different states, so we were throwing around ideas
- 3:30Speaker 2: on WhatsApp and we realized pretty quickly that about 90%
- 3:33Speaker 2: of that conversation was around sports and sporting events and
- 3:36Speaker 2: sporting statistics. So ultimately we decided we should do something
- 3:40Speaker 2: that we're passionate about. It just so happened that it
- 3:43Speaker 2: was non-correlated as well. So you're not going to have
- 3:45Speaker 2: that interference. So we started mucking around with an index methodology.
- 3:48Speaker 2: We both know the index space well. We've traded indexes
- 3:51Speaker 2: throughout our career. The thing that we decided to index
- 3:54Speaker 2: was sporting statistics. There's a really deep data pool there
- 3:57Speaker 2: of stats. So the challenge for us was to work
- 3:59Speaker 2: out which statistics we included in the index methodology, how
- 4:02Speaker 2: we weighted them. At the time, we were traveling to
- 4:05Speaker 2: the US to see whether this would pass muster. So
- 4:07Speaker 2: we were meeting with the CFTC. We were meeting with
- 4:10Speaker 2: professional sporting leagues. We were basically doing two weeks at
- 4:12Speaker 2: a time and just turbo flying around everywhere that we
- 4:15Speaker 2: could over here. A lot of time was spent with
- 4:17Speaker 2: industry as well, diving into the concept around risk in sports.
- 4:20Speaker 2: It jumped off the page at us about how much
- 4:22Speaker 2: risk there was and how hard that is to hedge.
- 4:25Speaker 2: A lot of these groups were just having to live
- 4:26Speaker 2: with downside in their investments and their capital at risk
- 4:29Speaker 2: in sports. So it makes a lot of sense to
- 4:32Speaker 2: create a measurement instrument, which we're doing with the indexes,
- 4:35Speaker 2: that tracks performance in sports. These groups that are investing
- 4:38Speaker 2: in sports, be it media rights, be it stadium owner operators,
- 4:41Speaker 2: ancillary businesses, patch sponsors, other kinds of endorsers, They're all
- 4:47Speaker 2: tracking performance. So us creating something underlying there that had
- 4:51Speaker 2: utility was really appealing for us, as well as the
- 4:53Speaker 2: opportunity to create something novel.
- 4:55Speaker 4: So just to go over that a little bit, your
- 4:58Speaker 4: main audience, at least at first, would be people who
- 5:01Speaker 4: are invested in sports but need to hedge. Say, I
- 5:04Speaker 4: know you're running an airline company. Maybe you buy Oil
- 5:06Speaker 4: Futures because it hedges the gas movements or something like that.
- 5:09Speaker 4: Is it similar to what you're talking about here?
- 5:11Speaker 2: Very similar.
- 5:11Speaker 3: Okay.
- 5:12Speaker 7: Okay.
- 5:13Speaker 3: It seems like.
- 5:13Speaker 4: They're designed for the sort of calci polymarket audience, but
- 5:17Speaker 4: that is interesting in that it's for people who are
- 5:20Speaker 4: invested in sports.
- 5:21Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 5:22Speaker 2: A real misconception. So we created the indexes with institutions
- 5:26Speaker 2: at the heart of what we were trying to look
- 5:27Speaker 2: to create. We were trying to create utility for them
- 5:30Speaker 2: to be able to hedge these risks. We've got retail
- 5:34Speaker 2: groups on the cap tables. We've got Robin hood on
- 5:35Speaker 2: the cap table, which we're proud of. And they've been
- 5:37Speaker 2: a huge supporter of ours. We haven't once discussed with
- 5:40Speaker 2: them the index composition. We're going out and discussing that
- 5:43Speaker 2: with industry, making sure that the constituents or the statistical
- 5:47Speaker 2: categories that we capture and measure within our index methodology
- 5:51Speaker 2: reflect real-world capital investments in sports.
- 5:54Speaker 6: And so, Jodi, just to talk a little bit more
- 5:57Speaker 6: about the index composition, what does that look like? What
- 6:00Speaker 6: do you include? I know you guys have a lot
- 6:02Speaker 6: of statistics that you're incorporating, but how does it track
- 6:09Speaker 6: Each team, you know, does it move up and down
- 6:10Speaker 6: during a game, for example, if it's during market hours?
- 6:13Speaker 5: Or how specifically does it work?
- 6:15Speaker 7: So the team indexes are really designed to measure the
- 6:18Speaker 7: performance throughout the game and the season. And every stat
- 6:22Speaker 7: that's provided from the league has a fixed value that
- 6:27Speaker 7: is in a publicly published table, right? And in hockey,
- 6:32Speaker 7: there's 53 different stats that go into it. One of
- 6:35Speaker 7: them is a win in baseball. There are 70 different stats.
- 6:39Speaker 7: And what we do is we follow a rule book
- 6:42Speaker 7: that takes these stats and puts them into an index level.
- 6:46Speaker 7: That's one number that can act as a benchmark or
- 6:49Speaker 7: a reference for the industry. And the way that the
- 6:52Speaker 7: stats point values were developed were by looking at 10
- 6:56Speaker 7: years of history and the rarity and how much a
- 7:00Speaker 7: stat influences the game and the performance is what determined
- 7:05Speaker 7: what the point values were.
- 7:07Speaker 6: Okay, and just to follow up with that, so let's
- 7:10Speaker 6: say I'm watching the Sabres game. The index wouldn't be
- 7:15Speaker 6: moving after hours, right?
- 7:16Speaker 5: Or when could I see it moving up?
- 7:18Speaker 6: Is it the next morning if they win that the
- 7:20Speaker 6: index rises? Is there a potential for them to lose
- 7:24Speaker 6: and the index still rises? Like what are the different
- 7:27Speaker 6: scenarios that maybe a retail investor could wrap their mind around?
- 7:31Speaker 7: Yeah, the indexes are calculated throughout the games as the
- 7:34Speaker 7: stats are coming in. And the official value is published
- 7:39Speaker 7: at 9 a.m. Central Time. So that's the official close.
- 7:42Speaker 7: And then they've got, you know, any of the values
- 7:47Speaker 7: people can look. and see what stats, what they expect
- 7:51Speaker 7: and what they can do with that is they can
- 7:54Speaker 7: take the current index level and then what's their expectation
- 7:56Speaker 7: of the accumulated points either throughout the game or until
- 7:59Speaker 7: a contract expires. So part of that value is already
- 8:03Speaker 7: on the board and the rest is just expectation and
- 8:06Speaker 7: there's calculators that they can use or they can put
- 8:10Speaker 7: in their own expectations to really decide whether the value
- 8:13Speaker 7: of a contract is undervalued or overvalued.
- 8:16Speaker 3: Let's talk about that a little bit.
- 8:18Speaker 4: I'm looking at baseball just because I know baseball better
- 8:20Speaker 4: than hockey, but like a single is worth 2.5, double 3.5,
- 8:25Speaker 4: triple 4.5, home run six. If you strike out, it's
- 8:29Speaker 4: a negative one and on and on. Those are like
- 8:32Speaker 4: intra game stats. And then there's like milestone stats. Like
- 8:36Speaker 4: if you have a four plus home run game, you
- 8:38Speaker 4: get 12.5 points. So there's, I could go on and on. There's,
- 8:43Speaker 4: it's all in this like PDF you have. This is
- 8:45Speaker 4: interesting because, All that happens, right? So those stats would,
- 8:48Speaker 4: in fact, impact the index pricing that you calculate. But
- 8:52Speaker 4: then the futures are based on the index, and that
- 8:54Speaker 4: could deviate a little, you're saying, so that if a
- 8:57Speaker 4: team is on a good run, the futures might trade
- 9:01Speaker 4: higher in the future and almost have, I guess, like contango?
- 9:04Speaker 6: And addendum, what if there's an injury, or does it
- 9:09Speaker 6: calculate for that?
- 9:11Speaker 7: The injury is not a statistic in the table. To
- 9:15Speaker 7: the extent that anybody expects an injury to impact any
- 9:19Speaker 7: of the stats that are in the table, they can
- 9:22Speaker 7: incorporate that in their expected value of the contract through
- 9:27Speaker 7: the season or at expiration. The fair value is just
- 9:32Speaker 7: the index value currently plus the expectation, right? So all
- 9:36Speaker 7: of these stats that you're seeing.
- 9:38Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 9:38Speaker 7: They all have values. So as a spectator, a business owner,
- 9:44Speaker 7: an investor, whoever you are, you can look at this
- 9:48Speaker 7: table and be like, this is what I expect to happen.
- 9:51Speaker 7: And you can add it up yourself because it gives
- 9:54Speaker 7: you all the values. And then you can say, all right,
- 9:57Speaker 7: this is what I think is going to happen. And
- 9:59Speaker 7: this is where the market says the price is based
- 10:02Speaker 7: on the fair value. So is it higher or lower?
- 10:04Speaker 7: And then you can take your position on that.
- 10:06Speaker 4: Is it normally trading near the fair value?
- 10:08Speaker 3: Have you had experience?
- 10:10Speaker 4: I mean, I know they're brand new, but we're a team,
- 10:14Speaker 4: yet the expectations make the price higher than the fair value?
- 10:18Speaker 7: So the closer you get to the expiration or the
- 10:21Speaker 7: end of the season, the closer your futures price is
- 10:25Speaker 7: going to be to your spot price. Because remember, part
- 10:28Speaker 7: of it is already on the board and the rest
- 10:31Speaker 7: is expectation. So as you get closer to expiration, there's
- 10:35Speaker 7: not as much expectation left because most of it's already
- 10:39Speaker 7: on the board.
- 10:39Speaker 3: So you could buy one of these.
- 10:41Speaker 4: And if the expectations that this like, for example, this
- 10:45Speaker 4: is not baseball, but the Jets.
- 10:48Speaker 6: Okay.
- 10:48Speaker 3: Everybody expects them to lose every game.
- 10:50Speaker 4: So you'd have the futures trading at a lower than
- 10:53Speaker 4: the fair value. If they start winning, then it could
- 10:57Speaker 4: go the other way quickly. And the futures could even
- 10:59Speaker 4: rise faster than the stats themselves.
- 11:02Speaker 1: Absolutely. Yeah.
- 11:02Speaker 2: The futures will be the market's expectation of where the
- 11:05Speaker 2: contract will fix. So there's, I don't want to speak
- 11:08Speaker 2: for CME, but there'll be three lengths and this is
- 11:10Speaker 2: sport dependent. So you're talking about football sports where there's
- 11:13Speaker 2: only one game per week. We'll not have future weekly futures.
- 11:16Speaker 2: But for hockey and baseball, there are weekly futures, monthly futures,
- 11:20Speaker 2: and you can think of it as an annual or
- 11:22Speaker 2: seasonal future. So the market's expectation, the Sabres are not
- 11:26Speaker 2: a bad example. I don't have the indexes in front
- 11:28Speaker 2: of me, but I believe they are something like the
- 11:30Speaker 2: fourth lowest out of the 32 teams this year, their
- 11:33Speaker 2: index price.
- 11:35Speaker 3: Opportunity.
- 11:36Speaker 5: I wish the people could see my face.
- 11:38Speaker 2: I know, it's a sad face. But the futures would potentially,
- 11:42Speaker 2: I don't know where they're trading and I don't have
- 11:43Speaker 2: an order book in front of me, but they could
- 11:45Speaker 2: be trading higher than where the index value is right
- 11:47Speaker 2: now if the anticipation is that the Sabres pick it
- 11:49Speaker 2: up and turn their season around. They finished, obviously had
- 11:52Speaker 2: a really good year last year.
- 11:53Speaker 4: What's the dispersion if there's 30-something teams in a league? Again,
- 11:58Speaker 4: we'll go back to baseball just because, again, I can
- 12:01Speaker 4: use names better.
- 12:02Speaker 3: But who won the World Series? Oh, no, we're in
- 12:04Speaker 3: the playoffs.
- 12:05Speaker 4: Okay, well, let's just say the Yankees are out, but
- 12:08Speaker 4: there's 30-something teams. If I bet on all of them
- 12:14Speaker 4: at the beginning of the year, what's the dispersion typically?
- 12:19Speaker 4: What would the best team return and what did the
- 12:21Speaker 4: worst team return? I'm curious of how much volatility or
- 12:25Speaker 4: reward there is for the risk.
- 12:27Speaker 2: Yeah, I might throw to Jody for the second part
- 12:29Speaker 2: of that, but I had a look this morning and
- 12:32Speaker 2: out of the 32 baseball teams, 17 of them are
- 12:35Speaker 2: up on the year. So they have risen above the
- 12:37Speaker 2: seven and a half thousand point index starting value. The
- 12:40Speaker 2: number for hockey is up 17 as well. So Jodi,
- 12:45Speaker 2: you can throw to like how far the highest performing
- 12:48Speaker 2: teams and the lowest performing teams have traditionally traded. It's
- 12:51Speaker 2: obviously different year to year. So we'll give you some
- 12:53Speaker 2: guidelines of what it's looked like.
- 12:54Speaker 7: Yeah, generally. So the rules state that the index levels
- 12:59Speaker 7: start at 7,500. And the best performing teams end up
- 13:04Speaker 7: in the 11,000 to 14,000 point range. And the worst
- 13:09Speaker 7: teams end up in the 2,000 to 5,000 point range.
- 13:13Speaker 7: And generally in the games, about 50 points get added.
- 13:18Speaker 7: It can go higher or lower depending on what's happening
- 13:22Speaker 7: in that game. But there's quite a bit of opportunity
- 13:25Speaker 7: for dispersion there.
- 13:42Speaker 4: Like if you pick the right team, let's say you
- 13:44Speaker 4: pick the Seattle Seahawks. I'm mixing sports here, but my
- 13:47Speaker 4: brain is just so, yeah, we're in football season. If
- 13:50Speaker 4: you pick the Seattle Seahawks last year, you probably made
- 13:52Speaker 4: a hundred percent. If you pick the.
- 13:56Speaker 3: Who was the worst team? Not the Giants or the Panthers, some,
- 13:59Speaker 3: you know, whatever. One of those teams, you.
- 14:00Speaker 4: Probably lost 80%. That's 180% dispersion. That's about what thematic
- 14:05Speaker 4: ETFs are based on the numbers you just gave me.
- 14:08Speaker 4: That makes sense because we were curious how much these
- 14:10Speaker 4: could actually pay off. And that seems pretty good. Now,
- 14:13Speaker 4: if you bet on a game right now, tonight, I
- 14:15Speaker 4: don't know who's playing, but if you bet $ 10, it's 100%
- 14:19Speaker 4: up or down after the game's over. So this doesn't
- 14:23Speaker 4: give that quite a hit. It's more like taking the
- 14:25Speaker 4: concept of an index and applying it to sports betting
- 14:28Speaker 4: in a way. I'm talking about for people who just
- 14:31Speaker 4: want to trade these, not the stadium owners who want
- 14:33Speaker 4: to hedge.
- 14:34Speaker 3: But is that the.
- 14:36Speaker 4: Idea here is that it's a little kinder, friendlier version
- 14:39Speaker 4: of betting on sports where you are to binary bet?
- 14:43Speaker 7: It's not. In fact, if you look at the table,
- 14:46Speaker 7: the winner loss isn't even on there in baseball because
- 14:50Speaker 7: the runs add up. Yeah. So you'd be double counting
- 14:53Speaker 7: if that were the case. So it's really very different
- 14:58Speaker 7: than a bet because a bet is binary. You win
- 15:00Speaker 7: or lose. And in this case, the index is calculating
- 15:04Speaker 7: and accumulating points throughout the season. So it's not a
- 15:09Speaker 7: win or lose. And you can actually be the losing
- 15:11Speaker 7: team and come out ahead for the night.
- 15:13Speaker 2: I can kind of go back to the conception of
- 15:15Speaker 2: these indexes. They're born out of institutional financial market backgrounds.
- 15:20Speaker 2: There's very few products. Obviously, we've got a lot of
- 15:22Speaker 2: stuff happening within the prediction market space at the moment.
- 15:24Speaker 2: But when we created this concept four years ago, there's
- 15:27Speaker 2: very little within traditional financial markets of this trading around
- 15:30Speaker 2: binary outcomes. So it's continuously priced, continuously measured, and there
- 15:36Speaker 2: is a way to track that price across the time continuum.
- 15:39Speaker 6: But Lee, can you actually talk a bit more about
- 15:42Speaker 6: what you were saying about the need for hedging? So
- 15:45Speaker 6: presumably you were in conversation with institutions. Feel free to
- 15:49Speaker 6: name names here and what that would look like because
- 15:52Speaker 6: I think there's an obvious comparison for a lot of
- 15:57Speaker 6: people just maybe not knowing all of the details to
- 15:59Speaker 6: prediction markets or hedging. to the idea that on Kalshi
- 16:04Speaker 6: you can also, one of the arguments that Kalshi makes
- 16:07Speaker 6: for itself is that you can use various bets on
- 16:09Speaker 6: Kalshi to hedge for various outcomes. I think there's that
- 16:13Speaker 6: now famous example of the ice cream shop in LA
- 16:15Speaker 6: that's hedging whenever it's supposed to rain and so they're
- 16:19Speaker 6: making money off of that. But that's one example and
- 16:22Speaker 6: I think the examples are kind of few and far between.
- 16:26Speaker 6: And so tell us a bit more about the institutional
- 16:30Speaker 6: side of this conversation, who would be hedging how, you know,
- 16:35Speaker 6: and what the volumes.
- 16:36Speaker 5: Might look like?
- 16:37Speaker 1: Yep.
- 16:38Speaker 2: We won't get into guessing volumes, but I can share
- 16:40Speaker 2: a couple of interesting stories with you. So a bit
- 16:42Speaker 2: over a year ago, we went and met with one
- 16:44Speaker 2: of the major TV broadcasters who had said their worst
- 16:47Speaker 2: case scenario was the Blue Jays making the World Series.
- 16:50Speaker 2: They lost the Canadian media rights to Rogers, right? So
- 16:53Speaker 2: it's a substantial or material drop in their advertising revenue.
- 16:59Speaker 2: That's hedgeable. We've met with another network who said every
- 17:01Speaker 2: game that a seven-game playoff series doesn't go through to
- 17:05Speaker 2: the seven, they leave $ 50 million on the table in
- 17:07Speaker 2: lost advertising revenue.
- 17:09Speaker 6: But then it's hedgeable, right? But will they actually act
- 17:13Speaker 6: on it? So if it's NBC, for example, does Comcast
- 17:16Speaker 6: go and buy those?
- 17:19Speaker 2: Respectively, yeah, we hope so. Creating a benchmark, this is
- 17:22Speaker 2: not a play that is a two-year play and we'll
- 17:25Speaker 2: see what happens if there's a change in government or
- 17:27Speaker 2: anything like that. We're trying to create a 50-year business here,
- 17:30Speaker 2: like creating a benchmark and something that the industry understands
- 17:33Speaker 2: and can price their risk out is something that's going
- 17:36Speaker 2: to see across a long time. So that's what we're
- 17:38Speaker 2: trying to create here. We think that accumulation indexes or
- 17:42Speaker 2: something that is continuously priced is the best way to hedge.
- 17:45Speaker 2: We don't think that a binary market is the best
- 17:47Speaker 2: way to hedge. We don't think that groups that have
- 17:50Speaker 2: capital at risk in sports really care about who wins
- 17:52Speaker 2: tonight's game, right? So we think that these groups being
- 17:55Speaker 2: able to hedge in the way that they do across
- 17:58Speaker 2: other asset classes with behaviors like movements in the index
- 18:02Speaker 2: from a volatility perspective, from a range perspective that institutional
- 18:06Speaker 2: traders are used to, we think they will use that
- 18:08Speaker 2: as a hedge. We've only launched two weeks ago. We
- 18:11Speaker 2: launched Hockey Futures via CME two weeks ago, so we
- 18:14Speaker 2: can't answer the question yet about whether they're there. Our
- 18:18Speaker 2: concept is build it, and we think that they will come.
- 18:21Speaker 7: I might add to that, too, that The playbook for
- 18:24Speaker 7: bringing new asset classes is now pretty well established. I
- 18:29Speaker 7: think as the data and the technology developed, we've followed
- 18:34Speaker 7: a certain method in the industry that was done for stocks.
- 18:41Speaker 7: Like in the 1800s when the Dow was started, just
- 18:48Speaker 7: get your transportation stocks for the Wall Street Journal predecessor print.
- 18:52Speaker 7: And then it took until, what, probably the 30s to
- 18:57Speaker 7: get another sector. And then probably nothing was tradable until
- 19:03Speaker 7: Vanguard's fund in 1976. And that sat empty for years
- 19:10Speaker 7: until the derivatives markets came, until you had the options
- 19:14Speaker 7: and the futures in 82 and 83. And then everything
- 19:16Speaker 7: started trading. And then the ETFs came in the 90s.
- 19:19Speaker 7: And then you had the sector. So, you know, that
- 19:22Speaker 7: process of knowing, collecting data, creating an index that's a
- 19:27Speaker 7: reference and a benchmark, and then getting product and a
- 19:31Speaker 7: combination of funds and derivatives in order to manage that risk.
- 19:37Speaker 7: It takes all of that in order to bring it
- 19:39Speaker 7: to the market. But now we can do it so
- 19:40Speaker 7: much faster than we used to do with equities. And
- 19:43Speaker 7: we've seen commodities, we've seen hedge funds, we saw crypto,
- 19:47Speaker 7: and now it's sports. So it's the same thing again.
- 19:50Speaker 7: And that's what I would expect us to come and
- 19:53Speaker 7: serve the market in the same ways that the other
- 19:55Speaker 7: assets did.
- 19:56Speaker 2: And without avoiding your question about volumes, we can talk
- 19:59Speaker 2: about the size of the market. So Apollo Sports Capital
- 20:02Speaker 2: recently produced a report saying sports is a $ 2. 5 trillion market.
- 20:07Speaker 2: Our own research, we think there's about $ 650 billion per
- 20:10Speaker 2: annum invested into sports across ticketing, media rights, merch, sponsorships.
- 20:16Speaker 5: Half of that is me buying bills.
- 20:18Speaker 2: That's you with all your merch material part of the market.
- 20:21Speaker 3: Hey, stop trying to make the bills happen, okay?
- 20:23Speaker 5: The bills are happening.
- 20:24Speaker 4: By the way, I can see the bills being really
- 20:27Speaker 4: one of the better teams, even if they get bounced
- 20:30Speaker 4: in the second round every year, because their stats are
- 20:32Speaker 4: really good. They're really good for their record and their
- 20:35Speaker 4: playoff bounce. Does that mean the Bills could be like
- 20:38Speaker 4: the second best performing team, even if they get bounced
- 20:40Speaker 4: in the second round?
- 20:41Speaker 5: Well, you don't have NFL, right, yet.
- 20:43Speaker 2: We don't yet.
- 20:44Speaker 5: So that is another question of mine.
- 20:45Speaker 4: That's the holy grail.
- 20:47Speaker 5: That is the holy grail. Clearly, it keeps coming up.
- 20:50Speaker 5: It's America, you know.
- 20:52Speaker 6: But I am curious, like, so when you guys are
- 20:54Speaker 6: putting your executive teams together, it seems like there's the
- 20:58Speaker 6: derivatives background, the index background, but also you have to
- 21:01Speaker 6: like sports, yes? Plus, then when you're approaching the various teams,
- 21:05Speaker 6: you have the MLB. And the NHL, how does that work? Like,
- 21:09Speaker 6: are you in talks with the NFL? When do you
- 21:12Speaker 6: hope to have the Holy Grail, as Eric says?
- 21:15Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'll take the first question first. Liking sports
- 21:19Speaker 2: is probably an understatement. We're all pretty obsessed. So to
- 21:22Speaker 2: an unhealthy level sometimes. So yes, everybody loves sports. We're
- 21:25Speaker 2: looking to combine a love of sports and a background
- 21:28Speaker 2: in markets. And to use a sports analogy, we're looking
- 21:30Speaker 2: for all-stars here, people who are known within their individual
- 21:34Speaker 2: part of the business. So we've got guys on our
- 21:36Speaker 2: team who have done really deep work within sports data.
- 21:40Speaker 2: For example, our CTO's company got bought by Sport Radar
- 21:43Speaker 2: when they're entering the States. So we've got a number
- 21:47Speaker 2: of people like this across the team. We're passionate about
- 21:49Speaker 2: the team and bringing the right people to the table.
- 21:51Speaker 6: Presumably you have some pre-existing relationships where you can go
- 21:54Speaker 6: to the MLB or... I noticed you dodged my question
- 21:57Speaker 6: about the NFL.
- 21:58Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'll get there. We had no relationships coming
- 22:01Speaker 2: over here, to be honest. So myself and my co-founder, Rhett,
- 22:03Speaker 2: were coming from Australia. We've got capital markets backgrounds, so
- 22:06Speaker 2: we have a lot of relationships within that space. We
- 22:09Speaker 2: basically asked, begged, and groveled our way to introductions with leagues.
- 22:14Speaker 2: The first league we met out here was the NBA,
- 22:16Speaker 2: who introduced us to the MLB. We met all of
- 22:19Speaker 2: the leagues via introduction. So it's been legwork and hard
- 22:22Speaker 2: work and jumping on planes and being willing to sit down.
- 22:25Speaker 2: We've invested a huge amount of time. Like we've been
- 22:27Speaker 2: engaged with the leagues for four years to explain to
- 22:30Speaker 2: them what's an index, what a derivative is, what is
- 22:33Speaker 2: exchange trading. They've gotten very smart very quickly and ultimately
- 22:37Speaker 2: become partners. So we've worked hard and we've educated and
- 22:40Speaker 2: we've been patient. We've made sure that we haven't done
- 22:42Speaker 2: what other groups have done and jumped before the league
- 22:45Speaker 2: partnerships are in place. That's been important to us. And again,
- 22:48Speaker 2: speaking to what we hope is the longevity of this
- 22:50Speaker 2: business and Being patient, we hope, sets us up for
- 22:53Speaker 2: very long-term relationships with these leagues. We're speaking to every league,
- 22:57Speaker 2: every league that you can think of. The subset for
- 23:00Speaker 2: us globally is probably about 15 leagues. We are not
- 23:02Speaker 2: looking to start indexes in synchronized swimming, for example, not
- 23:07Speaker 2: to throw shade. I think you're throwing shade. I love
- 23:10Speaker 2: synchronized swimming. I watch the Olympics.
- 23:13Speaker 3: Don't do pickleball. Please don't do pickleball.
- 23:16Speaker 4: Why?
- 23:16Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 23:17Speaker 4: It's just … The noise, just stick to tennis.
- 23:22Speaker 5: You're really setting yourself up for a lot of Twitter hate.
- 23:25Speaker 7: I know.
- 23:26Speaker 3: For a lot of stuff. But you would do individual
- 23:29Speaker 3: sports too, like tennis and golf?
- 23:31Speaker 1: We will.
- 23:33Speaker 2: We have met the ATP. We've met the PGA. We
- 23:36Speaker 2: know both those groups well. We can build out indexes
- 23:39Speaker 2: on athletes. This will never be a product. We will
- 23:42Speaker 2: never build indexes or tradable indexes on athletes who sit
- 23:46Speaker 2: at the end of the bench. integrity is the number
- 23:48Speaker 2: one concern here for us, for the leagues, for the CME,
- 23:52Speaker 2: and for the FCMs that trade on CME. So we
- 23:54Speaker 2: will be looking to measure performance of top athletes only
- 23:57Speaker 2: if and when we do go down that path.
- 23:59Speaker 7: Wow.
- 24:04Speaker 4: So I'm going to buy the Carlos Alcaraz ETF, I think.
- 24:14Speaker 3: I'll Can I do that this time next year?
- 24:16Speaker 6: Well, I was just thinking if you have a Bills index,
- 24:19Speaker 6: you'd also maybe have a Josh Allen specific index because
- 24:24Speaker 6: he clearly is the best quarterback in the league.
- 24:26Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, the Bills, I root for them.
- 24:30Speaker 1: Don't worry.
- 24:31Speaker 3: This could be their year. They're just something.
- 24:34Speaker 4: They lack the clutch gene, which is going to show
- 24:37Speaker 4: up here because I'm noticing if you win the World Series,
- 24:39Speaker 4: you get 750 points, which is like, That's a combination
- 24:44Speaker 4: of a lot.
- 24:44Speaker 3: Of other stats. Like, that's really big.
- 24:46Speaker 4: You don't need to do March Madness, and each win
- 24:49Speaker 4: gets bigger and bigger points. And the person who picks
- 24:51Speaker 4: the actual, the points are so big that the people
- 24:55Speaker 4: leading at the beginning of the tournament are never the
- 24:57Speaker 4: people at the end.
- 24:58Speaker 3: Seems like there's a similar phenomenon here. And there should be.
- 25:01Speaker 4: Winning a championship's really hard. I just think the bills are, they're.
- 25:04Speaker 3: Due, but I wouldn't.
- 25:06Speaker 4: I wouldn't. I would bet on them in the right,
- 25:08Speaker 4: here's what I would do. I'd buy the bills and
- 25:10Speaker 4: then rate the playoffs.
- 25:11Speaker 3: I would sell them. They're so good in the regular season.
- 25:14Speaker 3: That would be my move.
- 25:15Speaker 4: But anyway, you're going to go down with the ship.
- 25:19Speaker 6: To sort of synthesize all of this. So we have
- 25:21Speaker 6: the indexes for those two major athletic leagues, I guess,
- 25:27Speaker 6: possibly more to come. But then a number of ETF issuers,
- 25:31Speaker 6: because this is an ETF show after all, have filed
- 25:34Speaker 6: to use your indexes to put out maybe sometime soon,
- 25:38Speaker 6: a number of exchange traded funds, right? And so there's
- 25:43Speaker 6: a lot of questions actually around this, like who would
- 25:45Speaker 6: be market making for you? Like who have you talked
- 25:47Speaker 6: to or signed up already? Or who the target audience is?
- 25:52Speaker 6: Because in my mind, it is retail, even if you
- 25:55Speaker 6: have had discussions with institutions about how they might.
- 25:58Speaker 5: Use this for hedging.
- 26:00Speaker 6: Clearly, I am a Bills fan, and everybody in Western
- 26:04Speaker 6: New York is a Bills fan, and maybe you're hoping
- 26:05Speaker 6: that all of those people eventually buy the Bills ETF.
- 26:10Speaker 6: There's just a lot of questions about the ETF concept
- 26:12Speaker 6: of this.
- 26:12Speaker 2: I totally get that. The important thing to remember here
- 26:15Speaker 2: is that we are the index. We're the index administrator.
- 26:18Speaker 2: We are the reference. The ETFs that are coming out
- 26:21Speaker 2: will hold futures. The futures are made available via CME.
- 26:25Speaker 2: So those groups will hold futures. They will do different
- 26:27Speaker 2: things with the futures. There's a lot of interplay here
- 26:29Speaker 2: in the way that the ETFs will be able to work.
- 26:31Speaker 2: They may be long only. They may be short only.
- 26:33Speaker 2: They may be active. They may be levered. There have
- 26:35Speaker 2: been applications for levered. So there will be a lot
- 26:38Speaker 2: of different things that the futures can do. There will
- 26:40Speaker 2: be a lot of index concepts that we haven't brought
- 26:42Speaker 2: to market yet that would be able to sit within
- 26:45Speaker 2: an ETF wrapper. We think this is exciting for the
- 26:47Speaker 2: ETF space. This is somewhere where we do see retail
- 26:50Speaker 2: getting involved. Somebody for... For you to trade futures, you
- 26:54Speaker 2: have to be a sophisticated retail trader. There's a bar
- 26:57Speaker 2: there where any of the FCMs or brokers will need
- 26:59Speaker 2: to understand your trading background, source of funds, trading history.
- 27:03Speaker 2: They need to make sure it's margined. So they need
- 27:05Speaker 2: to make sure that you can meet a margin call
- 27:07Speaker 2: if you have an out-of-the-money position. So for a retail
- 27:11Speaker 2: investor who doesn't trade futures or isn't comfortable or doesn't
- 27:14Speaker 2: have that background, an ETF provides access.
- 27:17Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the futures for oil ETFs, Nobody really
- 27:21Speaker 4: wants to trade those. But I will say that when
- 27:23Speaker 4: ETFs track futures, there is some roll costs involved. I
- 27:28Speaker 4: assume the futures are what the market makers will use.
- 27:30Speaker 4: They'll just trade the futures. That's why I think the
- 27:33Speaker 4: ETF will be approved. I don't even think they have
- 27:34Speaker 4: to think about it because it's not that different.
- 27:36Speaker 3: Than an oil or corn.
- 27:38Speaker 5: Curious which market makers, you know?
- 27:40Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 27:40Speaker 5: Who's signing up?
- 27:42Speaker 3: If you have a year and I bought USO, that's
- 27:44Speaker 3: the oil futures ETF.
- 27:46Speaker 4: If oil went up 10%, actually might lose 10% because
- 27:51Speaker 4: of the roll costs.
- 27:52Speaker 3: Are there roll costs like that? And is there any
- 27:55Speaker 3: way to put a number on that?
- 27:56Speaker 2: Yeah, it depends what tenor of future you hold. So
- 27:59Speaker 2: within this space, we know that CME already have seasonal futures.
- 28:03Speaker 2: So some ETFs may choose to hold the season future
- 28:05Speaker 2: and then there won't be a roll cost. Say that
- 28:07Speaker 2: there was tighter pricing on a weekly, which there will
- 28:10Speaker 2: be because there's less room that a weekly future can
- 28:14Speaker 2: move or an index can move over that shortened period
- 28:16Speaker 2: of time. then if they wanted to hold long-term, then yes,
- 28:19Speaker 2: there would be roll costs.
- 28:20Speaker 3: So if you have the near, we'll call it the
- 28:22Speaker 3: weekly futures, would be like the front week. Micro.
- 28:24Speaker 4: That would be more sensitive to moves in that sports
- 28:28Speaker 4: team that week, which is the benefit there. The longer
- 28:31Speaker 4: ones would be less sensitive, but you would have less
- 28:34Speaker 4: roll costs. Yeah.
- 28:35Speaker 5: Is that right?
- 28:35Speaker 3: Absolutely.
- 28:35Speaker 2: So if you think about how weekly, I don't want
- 28:37Speaker 2: to get into saying how a future will trade because we, again,
- 28:40Speaker 2: we're the index, but if Jody has just said that
- 28:44Speaker 2: an index will generally put on 50 points during a game,
- 28:46Speaker 2: which is less than a percent. There's only so much
- 28:49Speaker 2: that the index can move across a week. If you
- 28:51Speaker 2: think about, you can extrapolate out opponents and how many
- 28:54Speaker 2: games there are during the week. It could be between
- 28:56Speaker 2: two and say six for baseball versus a year. You're
- 28:59Speaker 2: going to have somewhere between 82 and 184 now for NHL.
- 29:02Speaker 2: They changed this year at 162 games in the MLB
- 29:07Speaker 2: that trade across a season. So the indexes can move
- 29:09Speaker 2: a lot further across that time period.
- 29:12Speaker 6: But Jodie, what happens with the indexes and performance presumably
- 29:16Speaker 6: down the line with the ETFs when the season's over?
- 29:19Speaker 7: When the season is over, then the indexes stay at
- 29:25Speaker 7: the levels. 32 days after, say, the World Series or
- 29:29Speaker 7: the Stanley Cup, they reset to 7,500. And the index
- 29:32Speaker 7: levels stay at 7,500. The futures contracts can move based
- 29:41Speaker 7: on whatever expectation the market participants have due to anything
- 29:47Speaker 7: that they hear that they think will influence the index
- 29:51Speaker 7: levels in the future until expiration. So if you hear
- 29:54Speaker 7: about something about management changes or trades between players, You
- 29:58Speaker 7: can look, all right, I think that this guy moved
- 30:02Speaker 7: from this team to this team. He generates a lot
- 30:04Speaker 7: of homers. Homers are worth X in the stats table,
- 30:08Speaker 7: and I think that this is what it's going to add.
- 30:10Speaker 7: You can add that yourself. So the futures can move
- 30:12Speaker 7: around even if the index level is not.
- 30:15Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a Sixers fan.
- 30:17Speaker 4: Obviously, the Broncoming was like earth-shattering news. I could see
- 30:20Speaker 4: it just going up 10% in a day even if
- 30:22Speaker 4: the index was flat because the expectations are the Sixers
- 30:25Speaker 4: will be better. You see the same thing in the
- 30:27Speaker 4: betting markets. All of a sudden, the Sixers' odds to
- 30:29Speaker 4: win the championship go from 12-1 to 6-1, just like that.
- 30:34Speaker 3: Okay, I think I get it. Now, we've got all
- 30:36Speaker 3: these issuers.
- 30:38Speaker 4: There's four issuers per league, I think. There's LeagueShares, Roundhill, AlphaShares,
- 30:46Speaker 4: and then RecShares is doing this new company called Alpha
- 30:49Speaker 4: Sports or something, where they're only going to do this,
- 30:52Speaker 4: and they're going to get into all kinds of things.
- 30:54Speaker 4: I don't... All of this has to use these CME futures,
- 30:58Speaker 4: which are based on your company. So as you keep
- 31:01Speaker 4: getting these deals, the ETF issuers will just follow suit,
- 31:04Speaker 4: four or five of them will swoop in, make the ETFs,
- 31:07Speaker 4: and they'll just compete in the marketplace.
- 31:08Speaker 3: Is that the idea?
- 31:09Speaker 2: That's the idea. We will bring different index concepts to life.
- 31:13Speaker 2: But yes, the amount of funds that are out there,
- 31:16Speaker 2: and I know this is giving people some heartburn, it
- 31:19Speaker 2: will be in the thousands, right? Long-term, potentially tens of thousands.
- 31:24Speaker 2: if you think about other indexing companies that are out there,
- 31:27Speaker 2: and I know the SEC has a lot on their plate.
- 31:28Speaker 5: My eyes almost just bulge out of my.
- 31:31Speaker 7: No, this is typical because if you think about what
- 31:34Speaker 7: happened in commodities, so the S & P GSCI, that
- 31:39Speaker 7: one index composite, it was 90 single indices because one
- 31:45Speaker 7: for every commodity, one for every sector, and then the composite,
- 31:48Speaker 7: and then you had a price return and excess return
- 31:50Speaker 7: and a total return. And then in the course of
- 31:53Speaker 7: about three years, we had 5,000 indices because of the
- 31:58Speaker 7: different strategies that were being built based on the rolling
- 32:05Speaker 7: or where to hold in the curve, long, short strategies,
- 32:08Speaker 7: dispersion strategies, you name it, a strategy for everybody. And
- 32:12Speaker 7: so in a set of futures contracts that are available
- 32:17Speaker 7: through different index combinations, it's up To anybody's imagination what
- 32:23Speaker 7: they can do with it.
- 32:24Speaker 4: Same with prediction markets. There's endless possibilities in some of
- 32:28Speaker 4: these new areas.
- 32:29Speaker 3: This is one of them.
- 32:30Speaker 4: I think what people underrate about ETFs is that you
- 32:33Speaker 4: can have a ton because all they're doing is standardizing
- 32:38Speaker 4: all this other stuff that's a pain to get. Futures
- 32:40Speaker 4: are not that easy. So ETFs make everything trade like
- 32:43Speaker 4: an equity. Equity is the best, most.
- 32:46Speaker 3: Convenient way to trade things. There's price transparency. It's in
- 32:50Speaker 3: a ticker. It's regulated.
- 32:52Speaker 4: It's in your brokerage account like everything else. So it
- 32:54Speaker 4: standardizes everything, including sports. So the open question is, will
- 33:00Speaker 4: there be demand? How will this work? Would a bear
- 33:02Speaker 4: market make it less attractive because people have bigger fish
- 33:06Speaker 4: to fry? These are all open questions.
- 33:08Speaker 3: But it's, like I said, never a dull moment in
- 33:11Speaker 3: the ETF world.
- 33:12Speaker 7: As you were saying how ETFs standardize everything, that aligns
- 33:16Speaker 7: perfectly with the index system. strategy that we're taking in
- 33:20Speaker 7: standardizing sports performance. It hasn't been standardized. The data's been
- 33:25Speaker 7: around forever, but to be able to take that data,
- 33:29Speaker 7: assign these point values and a methodology, and have a
- 33:33Speaker 7: reference that the whole industry, whether you're a sponsor, journalist, analyst,
- 33:40Speaker 7: business whose revenues are tied to the sports performance, or
- 33:44Speaker 7: an investor who's looking for diversification because turns from the
- 33:49Speaker 7: field and the ice don't move the same as the market.
- 33:52Speaker 7: It's standardized. And that's the key. And that's what brings accessibility.
- 33:56Speaker 4: Thank you for tuning in to Trillions. And thank you
- 33:58Speaker 4: both for coming on and sharing all this with us.
- 34:01Speaker 4: And we'll look forward to having you back.
- 34:02Speaker 2: Appreciate you guys. Thanks for having us.
- 34:11Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Trillions. Until next time, you can
- 34:13Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
- 34:18Speaker 1: or wherever else you like to listen. We'd love to
- 34:20Speaker 1: hear from you. Hit us up. Trillions is produced by
- 34:23Speaker 1: Magnus Hendriksen and Keshav Pandya. Amy Keene is our executive producer.
- 34:29Speaker 1: Cheryl Brumley is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts.
- 34:31Speaker 7: Bye.