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Week 4 Picks with Cynthia Frelund · Best of the NFL Podcast Network

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good one
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sided rivalry. I'm Greg Rosenthal in Studio five, NFL Network
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: with one of my favorite people at the company in
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the world.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: It's Cynthia Freeland.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Yes, we are back picking games against the spread man
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: versus model, your computer model. We're both four and five
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: on the season. Cynthia, I went too and one last week,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: you went one in two. We're forgetting about the past.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: It's been a tough season, it's been unpredictable. We look
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: forward and I'm gonna just I'm gonna kick us off
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: here and see if we're on the same page. Yep,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: let's go Seahawks plus three point five to start it
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: off against your Lions. I'm not doing this as a
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: personal attack.
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: I don't take it as that.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: I'm doing it as a bit of history.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: So I mentioned it off the top, like a one
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: sided rivalry. You wouldn't think think that this is such
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: a one side rivalry, but it is. What did you
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: say on game debut? They haven't beaten them since twenty twelve.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: That is outrageous and I know that next time. That
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: has nothing to do with.
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: This particular matchup in my heart, But.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Gino Smith and the Seahawks have won in a couple
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: of score fests against Dan Campbell's team. Again, it's different
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: coaching staff, so I don't think that tells us that much,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: but the injury situation for the Lions is worrisome to me.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks have a good chance to win
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: this game straight up. If you look at Gino Smith
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: versus man coverage, just you're outstanding seventy three percent completion percentage.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Who plays almost more man coverage than anyone in the league.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's the Detroit line. Only one team plays more man covers. Okay,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: just so you know, second forty six or so. Wait,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: you're with me on this. You're with me, like this
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: is going to be one of your three picks.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: This is one of my three picks. Yeah, we are aligned.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, So why why do you like the Seahawks against
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: your team other than you're kind of emotionally hedging.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: I think I'm definitely emotionally hedging, But it only works
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: if your math also works for this whole man versus
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: model thing, and the model actually has that as one
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: of the highest out puts as well. Even though I
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: have the Lions winning in the straight up version of
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: the equation. Here's the reason number one for rank or
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: rag Now number two, Marcus Davenport, number three, Derek Barnes,
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: number four is Sam Laporta playing number five.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Like, keep going with.
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: This into report because it is a mile long and
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: that is a problem. But the Frank Ragnow one specifically
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: is massive because you haven't even seen Jared Goffe as
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: well good with play action this season, and he's had
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: the best run success rate in the league. So if
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: you're really good at running but play action isn't working
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: for you and you don't have your great center, it
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: is a gnarly ride. I do think there's gonna be
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: more than forty six and a half points in this.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: So just so you know, you just throwing that one
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: out of there, that one's like, you know, you put.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: The on your in your little note.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I got the extra picks for my notes.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: I guess you put mine on there because I will.
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: This is a this is going to be a scorefest
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: situation because I do think there are some tricks Ben Johnson.
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: This is like, maybe this is how he gets a job, right,
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: Mike McDonald got his job that Lion's game last year.
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: Mike McDonald that one of the reasons he got the game.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: So now it's Ben Jonson start. Even though I don't
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: ever want him to leave.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I love that you mentioned that that. Look, Mike McDonald
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: had a game plan that made Jared Goff in this
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit Lions offense look worse than ever a year ago,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: and Frank Ragnow their center. The on off splits are crazy.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I know this is in basketball or hockey, but when
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Frank Ragnow did not play last year, their offense was
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: just not the same. And he has a lot of responsibility.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why I think Jared Goff
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: has played so well in Detroit. Why Derek Carr I
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: think is off to a good start in New Orleans.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: He took a little bit off his plate. And you
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: have a great center in Frank Ragnow usually who makes
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: so many of the protection calls and does such a
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: good job. It's just not the same. And yeah, this
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Seattle defense, it's a prove it game because they've played
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: three bad offenses in a row. But ultimately I love
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: the way they're playing up front. I think their cornerbacks
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: are outstanding. Maybe there's some vulnerability in the middle of
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: the field and that's why it's going to be a
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: close game. But three and a half points in a game,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: I think Detroit has a chance to win.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: I kind of love it.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I love that we're on the same side, by the way,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: because last week we went against each other.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Yep, I won. It was the Colts, but it was
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: kind of a weird game.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: By the way, ken Walker, if he plays, he went
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: to Michigan State, there's like this emotion he that's gonna
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: be a problem for the lines, even though they've been
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: good at stopping the run. But remember I told you
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: all those linebackers are out. But this could be like
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: a Kenneth Walker, ken Walker, whatever you want to call him.
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: This could be like a hey, you guys up there,
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: and he's Lansing drive the seventy miles.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: Southeast to Detroit. This could be a problem.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned that, because, look, the Seahawks are
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: not a perfect team. They have not been run blocking well.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: They've not really been pass blocking well other than their
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: left tackle, and so that could be problematic against left tackle.
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: Great right tackle, that's gonna be a problem against Aid.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Aiden Hudginson. They just move him to wherever the
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: problem is. That's the smart way to do things. And
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the one thing Walker can.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Do that own forward.
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: That guy sounds like you should be awesome, but he's
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: allowed the highest pressure.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: He sounds like Carson still, like an adult entertainer. I
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: think they they he joins that group. So I love
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: that we're aligned. Okay, we're aligned, SOS this if man
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Vulursus model is to be trusted this year, we need
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks plus three and a half.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: Give me your second pick.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: Okay, so this is my second pick now, I just
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: I just want to make sure that we're like staying
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: aligned here the Saints plus one and a half points.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: I have the Saints winning, like winning, winning, straight up winning.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: So if you're going to give me them plus a
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: point and a half, I'm really going to like this.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Why.
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: Okay, I understand there's recency bias along with some of
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: these lines where last week you saw the Eagles shut
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: them down and you know they're away, et cetera, et cetera.
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: But number one, the Saints have the best NFC road
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: divisional rate, so fourteen games to four. I understand some
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: of that is Sean Payton or Drewsbie's but don't worry
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: about it.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: We can deal with those details.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Like even but you know what Dennis Allen to you
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: to be fair at Dennis Allen was on all those
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: staffs exactly down pretty good Falcons offenses exactly.
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: But they the Falcons defense doesn't have the same horses
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: that the Eagles defense has in order to not just
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: stop the outside zone run, but also get those pressures
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: up that really up the gut that really bother Derek Carr.
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: So they don't have the personnel to do that. Matt
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: Judon is the only guy that's really getting any pressure
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: and that does not an entire zone running outside zone
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: running and Derek Carr stopping team make right, Like they
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: just don't have enough horses to be able to stop them.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you look at their linebackers, Troy Anderson
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: and I mean Kaden Ellis is a good player, used
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: to be on the Saints and stuff. But they're a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: team I think you can push around a little bit.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. It's really funny you pick them because
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that they were on my list and I was really
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: debating whether they should be my third pick or not.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Here's it, I'm gonna Actually, I'm gonna They're gonna be
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: my extra pick. We're aligned, were aligned, but I don't
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: want to be too aligned. But but man versus Model,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: it's more like Man and Model this week. Yeah, we
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: love the Saints, yes, plus one and a half.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: I think this is a Ryan Nielsen revenge game.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: I mean like, like, I know he's at the Jags now, right,
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: but like they're all they both had him at certain points.
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: So like this Saints defense that was two teams ago,
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: and this Falcon syve is.
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: So it's like he's not even there.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: There is a lot of intermixing.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Harry Fontano in the front office, those are like, yeah,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I just love this rivalry. But I think if if
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: you just were soberly looking at the first three weeks
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: of play and.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: The data and going to look at it drunk right going.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Into the season, we thought these teams were roughly equal,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: at least I did. Uh, then yeah, it doesn't surprise
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: me that the Model spits out road victory. And if
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: you look at like Dvoa, which I really respect as
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: kind of a you know, one size fits all metric,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the Saints are second so far and the Falcons are
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: like seventeenth because the Saints have played three good opponents
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: they I mean, maybe not three good opponents obviously with
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, but three really high quality games where you
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: blow two teams out, you lose a close game against
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. I'm with you, all right. My second pick,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: this is the one I felt, uh second, you know,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: most strong second strongly about Commander's Cardinals, not the winner.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I do like the Cardinals if I had to pick
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: one minus three and a half, but I don't feel
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: crazy about that.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: But I like the over.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I believe it's fifty and a half right now or
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: fifty word, depending on where you're looking. I believe that
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: this is the worst defense in the NFL in Washington.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: They can't cover anyone.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: They try to play man coverage like they're putting Sandra
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Still out there on an island against Jamar Chase because
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: they don't have any other options. This is a kid
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: who's a rookie that maybe should be playing on the
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: slot or maybe shouldn't be playing at all.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: They just don't have players.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Dan Quinn is suddenly going for every fourth down because
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: he knows he doesn't have a defense. Like pick a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: defensive stat that exists in the world.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Touchdowns allowed in the past game.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: The Commanders are terrible at it.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: How about rushing efficiency, how about yards allowed per drive,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: points allowed for drive, you pick any defensive stat that
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: you want, the Commanders are the very worst in the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: league at it. And I think this is going to
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: be one of those Kyler Murray seasons where fantasy wise,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: maybe even MVP race wise, he destroys in some matchups where, yeah,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: he's going to have some weeks where against good defense
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: is where he struggles.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: But he has those weeks.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Where it's like the four to five touchdown weeks, the
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: eighty rushing yards two hundred and fifty passing yard weeks,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: And I think that's it.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: We saw on the other side of the ball, Jaden Daniels,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: he's gonna get his Kyler Murray. I mean, Cliff Kingsbury
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: is setting up like wide open receivers for him. He's
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: hit and throws down the field. I don't think Arizona's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: that great either defensively, so I project like over sixty.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know no model would do that, but
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I like like thirty three to thirty one, so I
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: think it goes way over fifty.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: If I were picking on my gut, I would actually
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: agree with you. But the model has something different primarily
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: because of something that you hit on for both sides.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: The run game.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: The rushing efficiencies for both teams, not just the quarterback
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: but also the running backs, the main running backs for
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: each team. That slows pace down and sometimes when you
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: have those slow paces, or when you take that fourth down,
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: that's like a roll of the dice, right, and if
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: you go for it on fourth down, you'll punt it.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Then it all changes.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Teams are crazy, so I that a'll make sense, and
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: that's why I like statistically, I get it. But you
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: look at weak one with you gut wise, but I
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: don't Week one, Bill's Cardinals. Like the Cardinals, it was
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: all these slow drives, but they still got the thirty four,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: yeah to twenty eight. You look at Commanders Vegels last week.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it was those slow drives and it was thirty seven,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: thirty three.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: You're right, you don't usually score every.
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: No, but that's why it's the drive, like the time
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: per drive, and typically you aren't getting six points per drive,
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: seven points per drive.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: The game is what we need. Though.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: This is the antidote to the low scoring NFL Commander's
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Cardinals over that is my second pick.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: All right, wrap your picks up. Third pick.
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: I think we're going to be on the opposite side
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: of this one. But I have Minnesota and I'm getting
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: I have Minnesota winning out right, So if you're gonna
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: also give me two and a half points, then I'm
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: gonna really really like this. I watched that defense we
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: talked about this last week.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: CJ Stroud. You can't blitz him. You know why he's
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: he's great against the blitz. It turns out they blitzed
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: him fifty percent of the time.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: They had the most pressures last week twenty three total pressures.
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: Thirteen came when they were blitzing, ten when they weren't blitzing.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: You know how many sacks they had five? You know
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: how many came without blitzing, three and then two when
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: they were blitzing.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: So sign.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: It's a really good sign because like a lot of
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: times in football, we can identify what another team's weakness is,
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: but how to adapt without losing your identity is a
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: really tricky thing to do. And Brian Flores and this
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: Minnesota defense they absolutely pulled that.
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: Off against the Texans.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: I think this is an interesting one at lambeau Field.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: Understand there are some parameters that are different. We have
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a question mark at the quarterback position,
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: so they're going.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: To have to a big deal though, isn't it like
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love and theleik Willis that's a big difference to me,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Like I'm going to pick straight up there. I don't
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: feel confident in this game no matter who's the quarterbright.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I don't feel confident in this game just generally. But
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I would take Jordan Love if he's if they're starting,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: and I wouldn't otherwise.
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: I would like take Jayden Reed in fantasy if Jordan
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Love's starting, But I wouldn't take them either way under
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: either condition, which is why it's one of my favorite ones,
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: because I don't think that there's enough horsepower there, especially
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: when you factor in that the Packers defense is like
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: a roller coaster, Like they have the most interceptions. They
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: have seven interceptions, but they all sold out the second
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: most yards after the catch over expected, so you're either
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: running on them or they're completely turning.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: The ball over.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: So that's like like if that isn't like a home
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: run swinger, like home run strikeout.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is I struggled with this one.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: You know, the Packers events have been playing bitter lately,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: but it's been again to Anthony Richardson and Will Levis,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I kind of just went with like man. Going into
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the season, Packers are only two and a half point
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: favorites against the Vikings. I know the Vikings defense is
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: shown to be a level that.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: We cold what about Sam Darnold.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: But coaching, to me, it's a rare case where Kevin
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: O'Connell's is not a coaching advantage.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: It's even because.
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: It's you know what, we didn't bring up what Aaron
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: Jones revenge?
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: Okay, Aaron Jones revenge.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Aaron Jones is awesome.
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: But Aaron Jones is gonna get so much revenge twice
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: in the end zone.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: It's all about Aaron Jones.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: Aaron Jones doesn't want revenge. He wrote a nice piece.
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: You just tell me to relax. That's so like Aaron
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: Rodgers view.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying, like, Aaron Jones is one of my
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: favorite players in league top five and success right, one
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: of my favorite running backs. But the Packers They're running
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: game is among the best in the league too.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: So everyone won with that one.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I help you win with that one because I'm not
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: going to go against you here or even on my
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: extra ones. That one, to me was just a question mark.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: You helped make up my mind for my third pick
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: because you picked Saints and I was struggling with it.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go Texans minus six and a half now,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: I've seen it at six and a half or seven,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: but as we are going to tape, I see some
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: six and a half's out there, so that's a big difference.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: You want to get the six and a half if
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: you can, But either way, I'm going Texans. Okay, they're
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: coming off a game against the Vikings.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: I'm putting your points up here.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yep.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: They're going up a game against the Vikings, which was
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: humbling for them. I believe them to be a Super
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Bowl contender, a very solid week to week defense. Who's
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: going to get after the poor sisters offenses in the league,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of which I can include the Jaguars as one. So
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: like a bad offensive line, an offense with no confidence.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: And this is something I gonna mention about Washington too,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: which is why I do like Arizona in that game
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: going on the road again on a short week, Like,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the numbers for that against the spread are not good.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Like if you're on the road on Monday night and
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: then you're on the road again in a short week,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: even if you did well on the Monday night with
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville very much did not, Like, that's just a disadvantage
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: that you don't want to have. Yes, it's a division game,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: so there's some familiarity there, but the Texans to me
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: are just a class above. And I do like teams
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: that I believe to be real deal contenders coming off losses.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: I do think there's an emotional and mental focus sort
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: of aspect, and then I look at the matchups. Yes,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville might get a cornerback or two back this week
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Darnold Savage and or Jerry and Jones, but like, that's
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: still a mismatch against Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs. We'll
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: see if Tank Dell is out there. So I like
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: the mismatch on that side of the ball, and then
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball, I really do
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: trust this Texans defense and what Demico Ryans is cooking up.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: So overall, it is a lot of points, but Thears
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: to me, are a bottom five team in the NFL
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: against like let's say a top eight team.
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: That's that's not too many points for me. They lead
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: the league in pressure rate. They that's that's the Houston Texans.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Of course.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: When I'm looking at the opportunity that they have from
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: kind of last year and you talk about a very
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: good team, what do they do after a win? Well,
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: if you look at last year, I mean CJ. Strout
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: is five and one in those things, let's go. So
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: that's another fact there. Like they are a good team,
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: things happen throughout the course of the season. I think
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: on game debut you were like, you know, this team
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: is better. I picked them for the super Bowl, but
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: I don't have them winning every game.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: So that was just I wasn't going to get away.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: You can't give it away.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: They got a win shot.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: And it's two different mediums. It's okay, let's give let's
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: give our man versus model lists.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: Okay, But but the point is is you know they
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: that even good teams don't win every single game. So
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: I'm with you though. It's how you rebound, it's what you.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Make of it.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: If you are a fantasy player, just watch that little
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: Q on there's a Q on Nico Collins status, so
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: just watch that.
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: It doesn't change anything.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: Let's go Dalton Schultz though, I think that will be
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: a good opportunity if there's no Nico Collins.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: Okay, And of course the fund explit the review.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: We're both on the Seahawks plus three and a hot half.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I also agree with you that the Saints plus one
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: and a half is a good one, but that's not
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: one of my picks. That is your second pick, and
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: your final pick is Vikings plus two and a half,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: and I am taking the Texans minus six and a half.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Seahawks, and I'm also
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: going over commanders in cards and you mentioned the note
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: card that everyone's talking about it.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: Everyone is, you know what.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: People stop me on the streets, they're like, can you
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: give me a picture of Greg's no card?
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: The country is talking about it. They're like, why is
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Greg four and five with his main picks?
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: But Greg, why won't Greg tell you the note cards?
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So we went back and I think checked out the
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: note card record for the season I think is nine
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: and three or eight and three.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: I gotta go check week one.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: There's like a divice on fire that comes into your I.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Didn't feel as confident this week.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: That might be a reflection of the picks not going
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: that well overall this year. But on the note cards
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: have even great. I only have two for you this week.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: The Saints, I'm with you, yep, plus one and a half,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: and then I also like the Titans plus one and
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: In Miami.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: We don't know who the starting quarterback is in Miami,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Snoopuntley would make me slightly more afraid. But when I
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: watched the Dolphins at a week week base, I think
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: they're the worst team in the NFL. I think they
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: had major problems with two A tongue of Iloa again Dvoa.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: They're thirty two, so that matches my eye test. Like
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: the Titans. They have a decent defense. They're twenty five
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: to twenty six. I think that's enough of a gap,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: and some of that data is with to a tongue
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: of Iloa as their quarterback and they're still thirty second.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's enough that their offensive line. I just
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: don't trust them to win any game right now. I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: think the Titans get their first win of the season
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: and I know your model agreed with me on that one.
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, model agrees with you on that.
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: The one thing that I do want to point out
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: about the Titans that maybe people are forgetting.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know if they're forgetting or not.
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: Calvin Ridley's ability to score touchdowns turns out hasn't gone anywhere.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: So I'm looking at this game and if you're looking
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: for a touchdowns more in this matchup looks to Ridley, you.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Know, I like that.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: And you know what, Nuk Hopkins returned last week and
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: he looked fantastic.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: I love he is one of my all time favorite players.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: So it was like a vintage like sketch, like it
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: just vintage.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: I love the goal making plays despite not being that open.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: Body control ridiculous. He's like, he's one of my all
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: time favorites.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: All right, That's what Cynthia does.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Check out her YouTube every week Numbers Game Man Versus Model. Obviously,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: we will be back next week to tell you about
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: how being on the same side of these picks really
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: paid off. But yeah, you should check out if you
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: want more Cynthia Numbers Game.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: It's outstanding.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Night.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: It's our flagship big show of the week, with Patrick
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Claybon and Nick Schook recapping all the games. Until then,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: football is back. It's been back, It'll never not be back.