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Cliff Notes: Record Gains for Stocks to end 2021 · Earn Your Leisure

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Speaker 2: Me Let me ask you to let me ask both
1:00
Speaker 2: of you guys this so we can just get some
1:02
Speaker 2: education for people because people might not be familiar. So
1:05
Speaker 2: all right, so we talked about earnings. Can we break
1:08
Speaker 2: this down a little bit because people might hear about
1:11
Speaker 2: earnings and earnings were good, that owning the earnings with
1:13
Speaker 2: disappointing and then if the earnings don't are disappointing, in
1:16
Speaker 2: the stock drops, but talk about like what does that
1:19
Speaker 2: actually mean when they release when they released their quarterly
1:22
Speaker 2: quarterly numbers.
1:23
Speaker 3: Yeah.
1:23
Speaker 4: So basically what I just ran down is the revenue
1:26
Speaker 4: generators for a company. So Apple, we talked about the iPhone,
1:29
Speaker 4: we talked about the services, right, that's another revenue generator.
1:32
Speaker 4: The math book, the iPad. I didn't even do wearables,
1:35
Speaker 4: you know, the wearable numbers. I didn't even put those
1:37
Speaker 4: in there, but I could have. So everything that is
1:39
Speaker 4: a revenue generator goes into what the company earns. Wall
1:43
Speaker 4: Street will say based on its performance. They'll say, all right,
1:46
Speaker 4: well we estimate that they should make this much per
1:49
Speaker 4: this quarter least three months. It's an estimate, right, at best,
1:54
Speaker 4: it's an estimate. Now if they hit the estimate, great,
1:57
Speaker 4: and sometimes we see the stock go up.
1:59
Speaker 2: If you have firms like a Morgan and Morgan Stanley
2:01
Speaker 2: right that put out reports.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, they'll put out they'll pull out where they will
2:05
Speaker 4: go yeah, right, they'll upgrade it depends will say overweight
2:09
Speaker 4: or underperform. And based on those things people will say,
2:12
Speaker 4: all right, it's a good time invest, So it's not
2:14
Speaker 4: a good time invest. Also, what Apple didn't do again,
2:17
Speaker 4: we spoke about this in a few episodes ago. They
2:19
Speaker 4: didn't offer guidance. And so when we talked about guidance
2:22
Speaker 4: is the future outlook, what does the next quarter, the
2:24
Speaker 4: next two or three quarters look like? And so they
2:26
Speaker 4: haven't offered any guidance during the entire pandemic.
2:29
Speaker 3: So this isn't anything new. So Stop did pull back
2:32
Speaker 3: a little bit.
2:32
Speaker 5: What is guidance?
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Speaker 3: I just said the future outlook of the.
2:36
Speaker 6: Future outlook of what they expect to do.
2:38
Speaker 7: So for my RAP fans, the analysts are like academics
2:42
Speaker 7: when he's guessing, like what the first week numbers are
2:44
Speaker 7: going to be, and the estenates are like first week
2:46
Speaker 7: sales before the quarter. Now, I truly think they should
2:49
Speaker 7: do earnings on a one year basis. It's a huge
2:52
Speaker 7: mistake when companies run on a quarter to quarter projection,
2:56
Speaker 7: and it's the rat races they're chasing. But they missed
2:59
Speaker 7: the number. But the numbers and growth of the company
3:02
Speaker 7: were great with a supply chip shortage exactly. So I
3:05
Speaker 7: wouldn't sell base off of that. And when you guys
3:09
Speaker 7: are looking at what to invest in, you always want
3:12
Speaker 7: to do the.
3:12
Speaker 6: Verses of the stock.
3:13
Speaker 7: So if you did Apple versus for GM, whoever you
3:17
Speaker 7: would pick, you have to say, are they better across
3:19
Speaker 7: the board?
3:20
Speaker 6: The answers usually know if it's not, then you have
3:23
Speaker 6: to pass it up.
3:23
Speaker 7: But yeah, with the earnings, it's a projection of what
3:26
Speaker 7: they are going to do, and a lot of times
3:28
Speaker 7: if they miss, the stock will drop and then it's
3:32
Speaker 7: a goodbye at that point. And I even seen stocks
3:34
Speaker 7: that have hit the numbers and tanked because of it.
3:38
Speaker 7: So that's why I never lean on earnings and I
3:40
Speaker 7: never factored into my investing equation because it's not a
3:43
Speaker 7: game for us to play bas off of that and
3:45
Speaker 7: for those of you to trade off of it. If
3:47
Speaker 7: you get the direction wrong, you're gonna get killed. So
3:49
Speaker 7: that's why I never factored into my investment.
3:52
Speaker 4: We just we just saw a Snap drop like twenty
3:54
Speaker 4: percent after his earnings, like they missed and then dropped
3:57
Speaker 4: twenty percent. But we've seen Apple have one hundred billion
4:00
Speaker 4: dollar quarter and pull back after that. Right, the revenues
4:04
Speaker 4: are running so high, and so that I mean again,
4:07
Speaker 4: if you base your strep get investment strategy off that
4:09
Speaker 4: you have some real, real experience.
4:12
Speaker 6: In doing it, you shouldn't do it.
4:13
Speaker 7: I'm gonna just say what he wants to say to
4:16
Speaker 7: your price to Apple two thirty eight oh two. That's
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Speaker 7: the target I have for getting to So you guys
4:20
Speaker 7: conrect that down to thirty eight oh two. It's where
4:22
Speaker 7: I expect Apple to get. And Snap did take a
4:25
Speaker 7: hell of a tumble. It will recover, but they have
4:27
Speaker 7: a lot of competition. I have an interesting theory about Snap,
4:31
Speaker 7: but I want to go into it. But if Apple
4:33
Speaker 7: goes to one twenty nine seventy six, that's why you
4:35
Speaker 7: guys should love to pick some shares up.
4:38
Speaker 3: Yeah you heard it.
4:39
Speaker 4: Let me cannot I'm gonna do one more company that
4:41
Speaker 4: missed because it was like big news that obviously, so
4:44
Speaker 4: Apple misses. Microsoft takes advantage of that they become the
4:48
Speaker 4: wealthiest company in the world. But Amazon missed, and everybody
4:50
Speaker 4: knows I've been huge about Amazon. They a healthy investment
4:53
Speaker 4: in Amazon, and so they missed their quarter. Obviously, supply
4:55
Speaker 4: chain issues had a.
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Speaker 3: Lot to do with that. But same thing with Apple.
4:59
Speaker 4: We know what quarter they're going into right the holiday
5:01
Speaker 4: season is upon us now. Today on CNBC, the president,
5:07
Speaker 4: the CEO of the National Retail Federation put out a
5:11
Speaker 4: statement and he said that this holiday season is on pace. Right,
5:15
Speaker 4: they're expecting it to be the greatest shopping season ever
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Speaker 4: of all time. Right, they're expecting an increase of growth
5:22
Speaker 4: of over eight to ten percent from twenty twenty when
5:24
Speaker 4: everybody was pretty much home. And so if we think
5:28
Speaker 4: about e commerce, who's the number one in that space?
5:32
Speaker 4: That good company, right, But also there was there was
5:36
Speaker 4: another piece of news that came out about Amazon and
5:38
Speaker 4: maybe people overlooked it, but they have entered the the
5:43
Speaker 4: ev market, right. And we spoke about Rivion a few
5:46
Speaker 4: maybe last year, but it's it's the electric truck, well played.
5:50
Speaker 4: They owned twenty so the numbers finally came out that
5:53
Speaker 4: they owned twenty percent of the company. So they owned
5:55
Speaker 4: twenty percent of Rivion. I think the investment was like
5:58
Speaker 4: one point three billion, right, based on Vivian's evaluation, because
6:02
Speaker 4: it's IPO.
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Speaker 3: In this month. I don't we not have the exact day.
6:04
Speaker 3: I know in the next couple of weeks it's going
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Speaker 3: to IPO.
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Speaker 4: But based on evaluation, that investment is now worth three
6:09
Speaker 4: point eight billion, right, So the growth of Rivion will
6:13
Speaker 4: also mean the success of Amazon as well. They've already
6:16
Speaker 4: ordered one hundred thousand vehicles for their delivery service. And
6:19
Speaker 4: there's another company that that's been invested in as well.
6:22
Speaker 4: You may have heard of by Ford for those five
6:24
Speaker 4: percent of Rivian as well. So the base has been
6:27
Speaker 4: laid for this company to be successful. Amazon's already on
6:31
Speaker 4: twenty percent plus they've already had one hundred thousand vehicles.
6:34
Speaker 4: How long did it take a testa to get to
6:36
Speaker 4: one hundred thousand vehicles ordered? Thinking about that, right, and
6:39
Speaker 4: so you started looking at the success of this ev market.
6:42
Speaker 3: They've already built in a win.
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Speaker 5: So so what are you saying, you're bullish on Amazon.
6:46
Speaker 3: I'm staying bullish on Amazon.
6:47
Speaker 6: Yes, you have to.
6:49
Speaker 5: You got to speak the language that people just want said.
6:52
Speaker 3: You just want to know in my body or not,
6:54
Speaker 3: that's all you want to know.
6:55
Speaker 2: I just want to give you the information you make
6:57
Speaker 2: the right I speak for the mass man.
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Speaker 5: They just want to want that mic away.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, so Amazon is an amazing company holder for the next
7:06
Speaker 7: ten years. I know you guys are going to ask
7:09
Speaker 7: about Rivian, but it's one of the things you have
7:11
Speaker 7: to understand when big companies like these and they own
7:14
Speaker 7: a considerable amount of a twenty percent, that is a
7:18
Speaker 7: solid strategy in business owners. When I'm telling you to diversify,
7:21
Speaker 7: because we're not talking about it enough, but we've entered
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Speaker 7: an age when we're watching the job market die right
7:27
Speaker 7: in front of our face. And part of the reason
7:29
Speaker 7: why Crypto and ev is going up. They're not saying it.
7:33
Speaker 7: These are going to replace most job markets. And when
7:37
Speaker 7: they usher in universal basic income, they're going to say, well,
7:40
Speaker 7: we gave your gi you guys an opportunity to invest
7:42
Speaker 7: in Crypto and Amazon and Tesla when they were super cheap.
7:45
Speaker 7: So when I'm saying you have to invest in these
7:47
Speaker 7: because in fifteen years, they may be no job market
7:50
Speaker 7: the way we see it today. If you don't believe
7:52
Speaker 7: that's true, go talk to your aunt's friends, brothers that
7:56
Speaker 7: live through two thousand and five. And when two thousand
7:58
Speaker 7: and seven came, the job market dramatically change. I remember
8:01
Speaker 7: when we were graduating from school, it was like if
8:03
Speaker 7: you graduated, you would guarantee the job. Now I know
8:06
Speaker 7: people that have masters that can't get a job to
8:09
Speaker 7: page eighty thousand a year please be mindful. We are
8:13
Speaker 7: witnessing a changing of the guard in.
8:15
Speaker 2: Real time UBI Universal Basic income. You think that that's
8:21
Speaker 2: something that you just kind of breezed over very quickly.
8:26
Speaker 2: You believe that that could actually happen at some point
8:28
Speaker 2: in time.
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Speaker 7: If the job market continues to be eroded. Absolutely ernest.
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11:26
Speaker 3: Be protected sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
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Speaker 3: And they got them in the matrix.
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Speaker 5: That's our connection.
11:39
Speaker 3: I don't know. We're still good.
11:46
Speaker 5: I dunlap has froze. They have them in the matrix.
11:52
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, while we wait for Ian to come back online,
11:56
Speaker 2: let's talk about XLI as we talk Yeah, XL Y
12:05
Speaker 2: so xly.
12:07
Speaker 5: Since we're talking about oh there you go.
12:10
Speaker 3: You good?
12:12
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm good, I'm good, all right?
12:16
Speaker 2: So all right, yeah, so you said if the job
12:19
Speaker 2: market continues to suffer in some level of universal income.
12:22
Speaker 5: Would have to.
12:23
Speaker 6: It's going to be needed to keep the people from revoting.
12:27
Speaker 6: You have to, you have to.
12:29
Speaker 7: I don't think people go look at historically. Go look
12:32
Speaker 7: in nineteen twenty nine and nineteen thirty three, after those
12:35
Speaker 7: recessions happened. How much you got some Google it, how
12:38
Speaker 7: much the job market declined. The power of the dollar's
12:42
Speaker 7: going down. My biggest fear, and I've said it before.
12:47
Speaker 7: The talic came through Peter Thiel's fellowship. He made e theory.
12:51
Speaker 7: You guys, I've already told you my theory on bitcoin.
12:53
Speaker 7: If we get taken off of the petro dollar and
12:57
Speaker 7: the Saudis no longer have to buy oil, that is
12:59
Speaker 7: the last lynch pin that we need for America to
13:02
Speaker 7: have no advantage. Inflation will go through the roof. There's
13:04
Speaker 7: a reason why you're seeing Square Tesla all these companies
13:08
Speaker 7: look to hedge with crypto in case the warl falls apart.
13:12
Speaker 7: Please write this down. The ultimate investment strategy is to
13:15
Speaker 7: be able to make money no matter what happens in
13:17
Speaker 7: the world, to whether we go to World War three
13:21
Speaker 7: or hyperinflation.
13:23
Speaker 6: Or we lose our dominant spot.
13:25
Speaker 7: You still have to be able to produce make money because,
13:28
Speaker 7: like Rashad said before, we have expenses every single day.
13:32
Speaker 7: So when you guys are like battling over which assets
13:34
Speaker 7: to own, should I do options?
13:36
Speaker 6: Long term?
13:37
Speaker 7: The answer is to do all and then invest in
13:39
Speaker 7: the top ones and then you'll be safe. But in
13:43
Speaker 7: order to keep the people from having an absolute riot
13:46
Speaker 7: in maybe fifteen twenty years, they may have to do
13:48
Speaker 7: universe basic.
13:48
Speaker 6: Income for sure.
13:52
Speaker 2: Interesting, there is interesting. Well, mind to that one thing
13:56
Speaker 2: I wanted to talk about. You said that it's going
13:58
Speaker 2: to be the biggest retail season ever. So xl Y
14:02
Speaker 2: Consumer Discretionary ETF I can see some positive results.
14:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're seeing it run right now.
14:07
Speaker 4: We saw it run obviously because and we said shout
14:09
Speaker 4: out to t Tad gave me the exact number was
14:11
Speaker 4: sixteen nine allocation the Tesla, But the number one allocation
14:15
Speaker 4: in XOI ETF is is Amazon at twenty two percent.
14:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, and so again, if I'm bullish on.
14:21
Speaker 4: Amazon the company itself, of course I'm gonna be bullish
14:24
Speaker 4: on the ETF that has a large allocation of it,
14:27
Speaker 4: plus it has Tesla in it. Those two companies alone
14:30
Speaker 4: outside of anything else that's in there. That's almost forty percent,
14:33
Speaker 4: almost forty percent of the entire ETF.
14:36
Speaker 7: I mean, if you're buying stuff online, and for everyone watching,
14:39
Speaker 7: it's a good question to ask. If you're buying stuff
14:42
Speaker 7: online and you don't use Amazon.
14:44
Speaker 6: What's the better alternative? Shopifies and stock Club? It's not better?
14:49
Speaker 6: What do you use?
14:50
Speaker 7: The Walmart dot Com? Ups is at great? Etsy is okay?
14:55
Speaker 7: Wish disaster. If you want the young jock Halloween mask,
14:58
Speaker 7: you could have one on Wish. I always think like,
15:01
Speaker 7: who is the best at what they do? This is
15:04
Speaker 7: why I hank my hat on being the best at investing.
15:07
Speaker 7: They're showing you in real time media who's best. You
15:11
Speaker 7: have to hang your hat on those that are at
15:13
Speaker 7: best in the world at what they do. And that's
15:15
Speaker 7: an easy formula. Even if you go back to the
15:17
Speaker 7: nineteen eighties, if you're looking at steel oil, nineteen sixties
15:22
Speaker 7: was Ford, That formula works for every single era.
15:26
Speaker 6: Like who is the best at crypto?
15:28
Speaker 7: If you're looking at in terms of holding value or
15:31
Speaker 7: store value, it's Bitcoin. If it's ability to create projects,
15:35
Speaker 7: you can argue ethereum, please write that down.
15:37
Speaker 6: The number one in this space is always the best
15:39
Speaker 6: one to invest in.
15:42
Speaker 2: And that's that's one of the reason why I really
15:43
Speaker 2: love ets is because it's like, like, so take xly,
15:46
Speaker 2: twenty two percent is in Amazon, fifteen percent is in Tesla,
15:50
Speaker 2: So let's just talk about that right quick. A lot
15:53
Speaker 2: of people don't like Tesla because they feel like it's
15:55
Speaker 2: too volatile and it's very risky, and it's at an
15:58
Speaker 2: all time high and it's you know, it's kind of
15:59
Speaker 2: over inflated. Some people might think, so this is why,
16:02
Speaker 2: you know, you can invest in the ETF and you
16:04
Speaker 2: actually get Tesla exposure without actually investing. Then Amazon is
16:07
Speaker 2: another one where people think like, well, as you know
16:10
Speaker 2: up there and price, and I might not have enough
16:12
Speaker 2: money to buy one share and it's not gonna make
16:14
Speaker 2: a difference because I don't have enough money. So now
16:16
Speaker 2: you know, the ETF once again gives you exposure almost
16:20
Speaker 2: a quarter of your portfolio to Amazon without actually, you know,
16:23
Speaker 2: putting three thousand dollars on Amazon stock. But then also
16:25
Speaker 2: in in that ETF has Home Depot, McDonald's, low Start,
16:30
Speaker 2: Starbucks target Target, so you know, it's a lot of
16:35
Speaker 2: it's a lot of good companies in there, and yeah,
16:37
Speaker 2: people consuming discression. People start to spend money. All of
16:41
Speaker 2: those companies are going to get patronized. McDonald's say what
16:44
Speaker 2: you want about them, and.
16:46
Speaker 6: A business of all time on a real estate sign.
16:49
Speaker 3: Easy easily.
16:50
Speaker 5: They're not going out of business no matter what.
16:53
Speaker 3: Depots not going anywhere, y'ah.
16:55
Speaker 2: Nike Lows. People don't don't think about Lows enough. We
16:59
Speaker 2: talk about realist. Shout out to Matt. We talk about
17:01
Speaker 2: real estate all the time. Lows is like the cornerstone
17:03
Speaker 2: for all of these real estate guys, all and all
17:06
Speaker 2: that they have.
17:07
Speaker 5: They's been thousands of dollars in Lows.
17:08
Speaker 6: Man.
17:08
Speaker 7: I tell my dad all the time, you need nothing
17:10
Speaker 7: else but home depot, Lows, Apple, Microsoft, because like people
17:14
Speaker 7: in construction, you guys prop up and this is what
17:18
Speaker 7: I love to do. I was in Galleria last week.
17:19
Speaker 7: I went to Apple to buy some wire headphones because
17:21
Speaker 7: I lost my AirPods. Right, I'm like, how many cells
17:25
Speaker 7: you guys just eleven o'clock? He was like, they did
17:26
Speaker 7: twenty nine hundred cells by eleven am. When you guys
17:30
Speaker 7: are in there buying drywall and sheep rock, you guys
17:34
Speaker 7: can see the volume in there, So you guys have accounts.
17:39
Speaker 7: You know, infrastructure is never going to go away, and
17:42
Speaker 7: major cities people are still going to build. Just invest
17:46
Speaker 7: in in quality across the board, and even better with
17:50
Speaker 7: the volatility thing con ed. Volatility is higher for my
17:53
Speaker 7: people back at home, nipscolle, Prices for heating is higher.
17:58
Speaker 7: Like the rate of return that you're gonna get, it's
18:02
Speaker 7: going to be offset by the volatility. So the more
18:04
Speaker 7: return that you want, So if you want something that
18:06
Speaker 7: grows one hundred and fifty percent in a year, it
18:09
Speaker 7: may be a chance that you get a twenty five
18:12
Speaker 7: percent draw down. But a quality company that it's best
18:16
Speaker 7: in its class is not going to draw down one
18:17
Speaker 7: hundred percent. You're not going to lose. Even if you
18:19
Speaker 7: bout the absolute top, it's not going to go from
18:21
Speaker 7: top to bottom and you get wiped out. You have
18:24
Speaker 7: to stop worrying about volatility and quality companies and realize.
18:28
Speaker 6: Those are the places in which you should be buying
18:31
Speaker 6: the most.
18:31
Speaker 7: So like when Tesla was in the six hundred and
18:35
Speaker 7: twenty range and I told you guys, it was gonna
18:37
Speaker 7: come down, it's to pass every estimate, and then shot
18:40
Speaker 7: up now said eleven fifty four. But look you would
18:43
Speaker 7: have doubled your money pretty much from June had you
18:46
Speaker 7: just listening.
18:49
Speaker 2: My graduates from my school being forced back drop bag drop,
18:54
Speaker 2: Mike drop back drop drop.
19:08
Speaker 8: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
19:12
Speaker 8: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
19:16
Speaker 8: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
19:20
Speaker 8: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
19:24
Speaker 8: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
19:28
Speaker 8: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
19:32
Speaker 8: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
19:37
Speaker 8: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
19:40
Speaker 8: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
19:43
Speaker 8: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
19:47
Speaker 8: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
19:51
Speaker 8: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
19:55
Speaker 8: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
19:59
Speaker 8: Do what's leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border
20:04
Speaker 8: and families will be protected.
20:06
Speaker 6: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,