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Felix Prehn - Trump *JUST* Crashed the *GLOBAL* Stock Market + Stock Market News 03 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market crash live stream.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Everyone's freaking out, everyone's panicking.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: My intention is here to calm you down and to show you that there are opportunities in this wonderful volatility that we're being delivered today by El Presidente.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through it.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: What are the tariffs?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: What are they actually?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: It's important to understand that.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Why are they there, how bad this is and how bad is it going to get, how long the tariffs will be in place and I can actually I've written this down, I can, I can.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Uh, there we go why the US will actually win this particular war and you can disagree with me on that, but I tell you why.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I think it is and there is something much bigger than tariffs happening here that no one's talking about Very, very important how we profit from it.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: That's probably the part you're most interested in.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: And then some other huge events that I'm watching this week.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: See, I told you I was going to take the piss out of this president, just like the last one.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: So anyone here feeling a little bit antsy bitsy, worried this morning, a little bit uncomfortable this morning, that the portfolio is red, red and redder, well, let me know in the chat.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Ok, just put a, put a, put a smiley in there.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: That reflects how you're feeling this morning.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I quite like to see that, and this is pre-market.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: It's a bloodbath.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: And why is he in such a good mood?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Because a VIX trade is going to make some money, isn't it?
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: There is always a way to make money, and I want to show you some of that today as well and explain some of that to you.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'm still working on another video where we go through what's actually going to be the biggest beneficiary from the tariffs, because there's a lot of beneficiaries from this, a lot of stuff that we might want to be buying this week, and that video is coming out in a couple of hours after this.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So make sure you are subscribed.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: If you're not and a lot of you are feeling a little bit queasy Okay, brilliant.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Well then, we have a good attention span here, all right.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: So, first of all, what happened in 2018, when the chosen one the orange one, the president you elected?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: 2018, when the chosen one the orange one, the president you elected put tariffs in place.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: He did so on a fateful day that I'm sure you all remember, which was the 22nd of February 2018.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I had to look this up.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Obviously, I don't remember such random pieces of information.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: And how much did we drop by?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We dropped a wonderful 11% on the NASDAQ QQQ.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: This is Did it last very long?
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: About 14 trading days, so just under three weeks.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: So look forward to a little bit of a wobble period here.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Fox thanks a lot.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: A link to yesterday video.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And what happened afterwards?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Well, we rallied back up, we bent back down again and then we went up and up and up and up and up and up and up.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I mean the QQQ was trading at 169 then.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Right, where are we right now?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: 500 or something.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So was it a golden buy, the dip opportunity?
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Absolutely more.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Is that the opportunity today?
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think so.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: That was just my opinion on this.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: But, as I'm gonna explain to you what this is and how we make money out of this, the most important thing really and Fox has reminded me of that is that if you're feeling queasy and a lot of you guys are feeling queasy, I'm loving the emojis here take it as the push.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Most of us need some pain in our life to actually change something.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I certainly needed it.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I used to be that guy.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I got a lot of pain, which is what made me into the investor that I am today.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Without that pain, I probably wouldn't be here.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: So in hindsight, the pain was good At the time.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: The pain was pretty horrible.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: It's physical pain, not just market and money pain.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So use the pain, listen to it and learn.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And one thing that I can offer you is watch the masterclass where I teach you how I make money.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash get free.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: The link is down below.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: The tariffs are twofold 10% on China and Canadian energy products oil, gas, gasoline, all that kind of stuff, various forms of oil products.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: 25% on everything else on Canada and Mexico.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: So that's basically the baseline here, right?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So less on oil and gas, which is probably a smart move.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And does the US have high tariffs on the world?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: These are the tariffs in place by some of the larger economies out there.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Some of you Brits, I think, are watching here.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: You have higher tariffs than the US.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: The Mexicans have significantly higher tariffs than the US.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: South Africa is Brazil, there is Korea and India.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Only Japan, out of the major sort of economies, has lower tariffs than the US.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So you could look at this as just sort of a level playing field.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: And again, I'm not a Trump apologist.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying let's understand the data points here, right?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So how bad is this?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Well, say you are a US supporter, and let me run you through a number example here.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I think that makes it really really, really clear.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Say, you pay $100 for your Canadian products.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: You know the mousse you've always wanted on the wall.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I know Canada doesn't just sell mousse, maple syrup too, I think but the tariffs would now go up to $125.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So that's a 25% increase, but not so fast.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: That isn't actually how this works.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: What is the first thing you would do?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: If you are a US importer and you've had that business relationship with your Canadian counterpart for 10 years?
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: You'd say dude, can you give me a discount, because otherwise I'm going to have to start shopping around for another supplier, and maybe you get a 10% discount.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Right Now, the tariff is only 12.5%.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: That's something Canada doesn't feel so good about that, but nothing's really changed here.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Step two, though and most suppliers will give you some discount Depends on the product how big that's possible.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Big moose?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: We got moose emojis.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Amazing, amazing.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Put a moose emoji in the chat here if you're under.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: If this makes some sense to you, put a moose emoji in the chat here.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: If this makes some sense to you, put a moose emoji in the chat.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Currencies.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: What happened to my currency chart?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Microsoft, ate my currency chart, seriously.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: That was a chart just now, oh dear, okay.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Well, what was I trying to show you is that the Canadian currency or or the Mexican currency are down about 25%.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Why this dollar?
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: The USD, gets stronger with these tariffs.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So in actual reality, I'm loving all the moose.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: It's the plural of moose, moose mice.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: You know something like that, canadians?
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So let's the plural of moose moose mice.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: You know something like that, canadians?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So let's just say your friendly Canadian moose supplier gives you that 10% discount, and your Mexican tequila supplier.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: That's the only thing that they sell.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I'm joking, right?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: So or lose my business forever, which most suppliers don't want to do.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So let's say they give you 10% forever, which most suppliers don't want to do.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: So let's say they give you 10%.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So you go from $100, which is about $235 Canadian.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Now you go to $121.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: That's your 10% discount.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: That's 10% discount from your friendly Moose supplier.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So in US dollars, that's $83.40.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: You add the 25% tariff, now it costs you $104.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm a bit quick on the numbers here.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: But essentially what I'm saying is there is a possibility that the present tariffs are about 5% in reality, because the Canadian dollar is dumped as a result of seeing these tariffs coming.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So that could be not as bad as you think.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Now is it going to get worse?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Well, the Canadians are, and that is, in fairness, maybe a little optimistic.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: It might be that Canadian mousse suppliers are not quite as generous with their margins.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the gross margin on a mousse is nowadays, or maple syrup or in you know, avocados, but so that might be a little optimistic.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: But let me show you this the Canadians are crying moose at the moment.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I was going to say wolf.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: These are some of the tariffs that Canada has on US products 270% on milk, 245% on cheese, 106% on barley, 100% on vegetables, shoes, 30% tobacco, 100% copper, 48% vacuums.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: You get the idea.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Pretty high tariffs, right?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: 20% on lumber and so on.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So they are protecting their industries and it's all right.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: It's a free country, right?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Well, it means that the tariffs and this is what JP Morgan put out this morning they will cause a recession, also in the US, but in Canada and Mexico.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So Canada is standing up and going.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: We're going to fight back.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: We're going to hit you with more tariffs.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: It's going to make sure that they get hit with more tariffs and it's going to put Canada into a very, very serious recession, because Canada exports much, much more to the US than the US imports from Canada, and I'll show you the numbers in a second as well.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Melatonics, I'm joking about the maple syrup.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I know the deal comes from.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Was it Maine or somewhere like that?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: And the tariffs make your program more expensive?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: No, I don't think so.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: I checked.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Services are not affected by this, so we'll circle back onto this in a second, but this is actually something that people are not talking about, and I tweeted this yesterday.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Do we still tweet or do we X now?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, services are not usually tariffed.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: It's fairly unusual.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: At the moment, I certainly haven't done that.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: The biggest loophole in the China tariffs, the US tariffs on Chinese imports, has been something called the de minimis rule.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: De minimis and it's probably one of the few moments where the Americans still use Latin and that basically means a parcel under $800 goes tax-free, tariff-free.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Now the US receives 4 million such parcels a day.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: 4 million, that's a billion parcels a year come in with allegedly less than $800 in them, which is, as you can figure out, at $800 apiece.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Potentially, say, $800 billion right, $800 billion in goods.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Now Trump has instructed US Customs to enforce this rule very strictly and inspect.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: So all of that stuff that you're ordering off some sort of Amazon-like thing in the US comes in this way, that's going to stop.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: That is actually far, far bigger, because it closes the biggest loophole in the US.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's the real thing that's hitting China right now.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It's not the tariff, it's actually this just closing that loophole.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: That's very, very, very big.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, temu and Chain and all these places this is huge, huge, even right.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So that's a really big one.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So this is actually a little bit more serious than what you think there at the top.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So what do we do with that information?
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Well, this is what I look at when the markets tank.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: The good old options trader in me, or the volatility futures trader in me, looks at the VIX, and I know some people are going to run away because I'm talking about VIX.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: But what is VIX?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: It's the fear index and it tells you how much the market's going to move by each day.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: So, at 20, it's a 1% move a day.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: At 30, it's about 2.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: At 40, it's about 2.5.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: And so on.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: At 70, it's 4.4% a day, which is insane.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So where are we right now on the VIX Let6, which actually isn't that bad On Friday?
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Is that Friday?
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we were at one point at 20 today.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: These are futures.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: They trade from 7 am New York time, I think.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: No, sorry, 6 pm Sunday.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: That's when they start trading.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I think I could be slightly wrong on that.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So that's elevated.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: And we have a VIX trade open on that that's up 100% right now, not making us massive amounts of money yet, but eventually they will.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: We're up about 112% on this right now.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So there is always a way to make money out of these things and this is, by the way, very, very, very, very predictable.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about writing some sort of guide on this because it's a little complex, but it's something that's very, very easy to make money out of.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: So what do we do with that?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Well, when you are above 20 on the VIX, we might start shorting VIX, which is kind of an interesting concept.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Certainly, if it goes above 30, we'll definitely short the heck out of it.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: If it goes 40, we put the farm on it.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: And again, I'm not telling you to do that, but that's what I would do, because it's a thing that always goes down.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: It's not something that goes up, it's just something that over time will always go down.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: So it's not possible to stay at elevated levels for a very, very long period, unless you know absurd amount of cataclysmic events were to happen every other day, which is highly unlikely.