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Did You Rake In HUGE WINS from Michigan Senate Primary Election? · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:03
  The Michigan Senate primary was the big one last night.
• 0:05
  There's a lot of elections,
• 0:06
  but that one kind of stood out for a an absolutely wild
• 0:10
  night on prediction markets,
• 0:12
  as well as what it means for the country.
• 0:13
  We'll get into that
• 0:14
  today.
• 0:15
  I actually last night had,
• 0:16
  I think maybe my best win of the year.
• 0:19
  And my dumbest loss of the year.
• 0:22
  Both happened on the same night.
• 0:23
  Uh,
• 0:24
  that's how prediction markets will roll you.
• 0:26
  I also have a couple of markets that I,
• 0:27
  I kinda like,
• 0:28
  and I wanna let you know about it.
• 0:30
  You may not have heard about these yet.
• 0:32
  A couple of good opportunities.
• 0:34
  So make sure to stick with us,
• 0:36
  uh,
• 0:36
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow
• 0:39
  and predictableshow.com.
• 0:55
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:57
  I've been getting great response to,
• 0:59
  uh,
• 0:59
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• 1:01
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• 1:02
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  uh,
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• 1:47
  and we will get that to you as soon as possible.
• 1:49
  Uh,
• 1:49
  El Sayed,
• 1:50
  the winner,
• 1:51
  the socialist victor.
• 1:54
  Yes,
• 1:55
  Abdul El Sayed
• 1:57
  edges out establishment candidate in crucial Michigan Senate primary.
• 2:00
  They didn't even know her name.
• 2:01
  They just wrote establishment.
• 2:02
  I don't know what's her name,
• 2:03
  Haley something.
• 2:04
  I don't know,
• 2:04
  whatever,
• 2:04
  just put establishment candidate.
• 2:06
  Anyway,
• 2:06
  she won,
• 2:07
  and they wrote her name right under that actually.
• 2:09
  Abdullah El Sayyed defeated Haley Stevens,
• 2:12
  uh,
• 2:12
  and,
• 2:13
  uh,
• 2:13
  a lot of money.
• 2:14
  I mean,
• 2:15
  Stevens outspent El Sayyed 9 to 1 in this race
• 2:19
  when you,
• 2:19
  when you count outside money.
• 2:21
  And the question I partially is whether
• 2:24
  that outside money was actually beneficial to Stevens
• 2:26
  or it hurt her.
• 2:28
  We might never know the answer to that,
• 2:29
  but
• 2:30
  it wound up being very,
• 2:32
  very close.
• 2:32
  Abdul Al Sayed,
• 2:34
  740,950 votes
• 2:36
  for 48.5% of the vote.
• 2:39
  Haley Stevens is about 14,000 votes behind at 47.5% of the vote.
• 2:44
  Another interesting part of this is that third place candidate,
• 2:47
  Valerie McMorrow,
• 2:49
  who got 61,000 votes,
• 2:51
  even though she had recently dropped out.
• 2:54
  You know,
• 2:54
  again,
• 2:54
  I,
• 2:55
  I,
• 2:55
  the,
• 2:55
  the Stevens campaign is really,
• 2:56
  uh,
• 2:57
  not loving that because McMorrow was seen as in
• 3:00
  the middle of Stevens and Abdul El Sayed.
• 3:03
  Uh,
• 3:03
  but maybe more of her votes would have gone to Stevens.
• 3:06
  We'll never know the answer to that question,
• 3:08
  but,
• 3:08
  uh,
• 3:08
  that's,
• 3:09
  uh,
• 3:09
  how,
• 3:10
  how that went.
• 3:10
  Now,
• 3:10
  on the prediction markets,
• 3:12
  by the way,
• 3:12
  this is an amazing thing.
• 3:14
  You know,
• 3:15
  this is a statewide election in a Midwest state.
• 3:17
  This is not New York City.
• 3:18
  This is not Los Angeles.
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  This is not some inner,
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  uh,
• 3:21
  you know,
• 3:22
  city district in a place that's very,
• 3:23
  very liberal.
• 3:24
  This is a,
• 3:25
  you know,
• 3:26
  a,
• 3:26
  a swing state,
• 3:27
  and now they are running a Democratic socialist.
• 3:29
  This means a lot for control of the Senate.
• 3:31
  I think it puts the Senate,
• 3:33
  uh,
• 3:33
  seat in Michigan
• 3:34
  much more in play.
• 3:35
  This is a good outcome for Republicans if your idea is,
• 3:39
  do you want Republicans to win.
• 3:40
  If you're thinking about,
• 3:41
  you know,
• 3:42
  hey,
• 3:42
  how far left can the government go,
• 3:44
  Abdul El Sayyed was farther left
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  than,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:47
  Haley Stevens,
• 3:48
  but,
• 3:49
  um,
• 3:50
  I think El Sayed is more beatable even though he's
• 3:53
  aesthetically a decent candidate.
• 3:54
  Uh,
• 3:55
  this is what this,
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:56
  this thing went,
• 3:57
  let me show you this market,
• 3:57
  a Michigan Democratic Senate nominee.
• 3:59
  This one now closed,
• 4:01
  and give me the last month or so of this one,
• 4:03
  Adam,
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  if you will.
• 4:04
  Uh,
• 4:05
  you kind of see,
• 4:07
  this is after McMorrow has stepped out again.
• 4:10
  She,
• 4:10
  she came out of the race
• 4:12
  more than a month ago.
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  Why is she still getting 60,000 votes?
• 4:15
  I don't know.
• 4:16
  Uh,
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  but that shouldn't even be a thing,
• 4:18
  really,
• 4:18
  but
• 4:19
  her name's on the ballot,
• 4:20
  I guess people are just checking it.
• 4:21
  Um,
• 4:21
  you see Abdul El Sayed,
• 4:22
  if you go to the beginning of this around early July.
• 4:25
  You see El Sayyed in the area about 84% to win this race.
• 4:30
  It goes
• 4:30
  forward.
• 4:31
  Stevens,
• 4:31
  uh,
• 4:32
  narrows this race.
• 4:33
  El Sayed drops down to,
• 4:35
  uh,
• 4:35
  the high 60s.
• 4:37
  Uh,
• 4:37
  a little bit of a burst after,
• 4:38
  I think that was the first debate,
• 4:40
  goes up back up to about 78,
• 4:41
  falls down again,
• 4:43
  uh,
• 4:43
  to 65,
• 4:45
  and then sort of climbs the ladder as the market gets more and more sure.
• 4:49
  That this,
• 4:51
  uh,
• 4:51
  would be a sure thing for Abdul El Sayyed
• 4:54
  and is up at about 97%,
• 4:57
  98% or so
• 4:58
  as we enter election day.
• 5:00
  Now go back to a week if you could,
• 5:01
  uh,
• 5:02
  on the timeline,
• 5:03
  Adam.
• 5:04
  It isn't super detailed in this graph,
• 5:06
  but you do see.
• 5:08
  Um,
• 5:09
  you see a drop off from that certainty
• 5:12
  that we saw with El Sayed where he was at 90,
• 5:15
  99%.
• 5:16
  They,
• 5:16
  they illustrated here is 94%.
• 5:18
  Give me a day on the timeline here.
• 5:20
  By the way,
• 5:20
  $37 million in this market.
• 5:22
  Uh,
• 5:22
  the day isn't really,
• 5:23
  they're not,
• 5:23
  not a very detailed graph
• 5:25
  for my friends at Calci today on this particular thing,
• 5:27
  but
• 5:28
  there was a major
• 5:30
  change in this race.
• 5:33
  And it changes,
• 5:34
  I think also the Senate race going forward
• 5:38
  when you're talking about control of the Senate.
• 5:40
  I mentioned,
• 5:40
  I think this makes,
• 5:42
  uh,
• 5:42
  the Democratic seat
• 5:44
  more in question
• 5:46
  than it currently,
• 5:47
  uh,
• 5:47
  than it was before if,
• 5:49
  and if Stevens had won.
• 5:50
  Now,
• 5:50
  Mike Rogers,
• 5:51
  he wound up winning on the Republican side,
• 5:53
  pretty good candidate,
• 5:53
  lost a very close race in 2024 to a Democrat.
• 5:56
  Let me show you where that race is right now,
• 5:59
  and you see the movement.
• 6:00
  Um,
• 6:01
  uh,
• 6:01
  give me,
• 6:01
  uh,
• 6:01
  give me a month or so on this one,
• 6:03
  Adam.
• 6:03
  Um,
• 6:03
  what you see here is,
• 6:05
  um,
• 6:06
  uh,
• 6:06
  the Democrat,
• 6:07
  uh,
• 6:07
  as a big favorite as you go through,
• 6:09
  let's say,
• 6:09
  mid-July,
• 6:11
  uh,
• 6:11
  he,
• 6:11
  uh,
• 6:11
  the Democrat,
• 6:12
  and again,
• 6:12
  we don't know,
• 6:13
  uh,
• 6:13
  who it is at this point,
• 6:14
  it says Al Sayed,
• 6:15
  but he had not won the nomination yet.
• 6:17
  Uh,
• 6:17
  he's at,
• 6:18
  uh,
• 6:18
  the Democrat is at 71%,
• 6:20
  Republican at 28%.
• 6:21
  They've now filled in the names to this market,
• 6:23
  but.
• 6:24
  As you see,
• 6:24
  uh,
• 6:25
  towards the end of this,
• 6:26
  you see a really big narrowing,
• 6:29
  and over the past 24 hours,
• 6:30
  you see 65% as it looked like El Sayed was going to win,
• 6:33
  drops to 60%.
• 6:35
  And now as El Sayed has won,
• 6:37
  we are at a 59% chance for Abdul El Sayyed.
• 6:41
  To win this race.
• 6:43
  If,
• 6:43
  if,
• 6:43
  if this was Stevens,
• 6:44
  if Stevens had won,
• 6:45
  this would be a much higher number.
• 6:48
  Stevens,
• 6:48
  uh,
• 6:49
  performs better against Rodgers in polls.
• 6:51
  Moderates who are,
• 6:53
  will go either way,
• 6:54
  tended to,
• 6:55
  to like Stevens
• 6:56
  a lot more than El Sayed.
• 6:58
  Can you win a Midwestern swing state with a socialist in a statewide race?
• 7:04
  This is a big question and Democrats.
• 7:07
  They
• 7:07
  are kind of at that point,
• 7:08
  I guess,
• 7:09
  where they just don't care anymore about electability.
• 7:11
  They're at that point where they're just saying,
• 7:13
  look,
• 7:13
  screw it.
• 7:13
  We want,
• 7:14
  we want our guy.
• 7:15
  And I've been there
• 7:16
  many,
• 7:16
  many times actually.
• 7:17
  If you kind of,
• 7:18
  uh,
• 7:18
  you know,
• 7:18
  I'm a,
• 7:18
  I'm a conservative,
• 7:19
  if you don't know that,
• 7:20
  and,
• 7:21
  uh,
• 7:21
  you know,
• 7:21
  I,
• 7:22
  this is a prediction market show.
• 7:23
  I'm not gonna bore you with all sorts of politics,
• 7:25
  but I think the dynamic is interesting in that
• 7:27
  you have a situation where
• 7:29
  If you are a real conservative,
• 7:32
  you are a lot of times frustrated with the,
• 7:34
  with the candidates Republicans put up.
• 7:36
  They seem too wishy-washy and,
• 7:37
  you know,
• 7:38
  people call them RINOs,
• 7:39
  and then they're always giving in to the other side.
• 7:40
  They always want to be bipartisan.
• 7:42
  They always,
• 7:43
  they never feel like they'll hold the line for the values that you care about.
• 7:46
  And I think that's the same thing we're getting out of the far left right now.
• 7:49
  They're saying,
• 7:49
  hey,
• 7:50
  we want socialists,
• 7:51
  we want left-wing candidates.
• 7:52
  We're not,
• 7:52
  we're,
• 7:53
  we're tired of hiding it.
• 7:54
  We're tired of running away from it.
• 7:57
  We want these hardcore,
• 7:59
  hold the line type of candidates.
• 8:01
  They're getting them around the country,
• 8:02
  most of them in safe districts,
• 8:04
  so they don't have to worry about it.
• 8:05
  This is not the situation here.
• 8:06
  Rogers is a pretty good candidate.
• 8:07
  Now,
• 8:07
  that being said,
• 8:08
  the climate is difficult for Republicans as we get close to this election.
• 8:12
  So this is far from a sure thing for Rogers.
• 8:14
  And,
• 8:14
  as,
• 8:15
  as you see,
• 8:15
  he's still a sixty-forty underdog.
• 8:17
  And someone asked me about this on a predictable show on the chat.
• 8:21
  Hey,
• 8:21
  what do you think about this opportunity?
• 8:23
  Uh,
• 8:24
  should we go with Rodgers,
• 8:25
  who has a better chance against El Sayed?
• 8:27
  What do you think?
• 8:28
  I think this is pretty well priced right now.
• 8:30
  I,
• 8:30
  I,
• 8:30
  I,
• 8:30
  I,
• 8:30
  I,
• 8:31
  I don't have a,
• 8:32
  a,
• 8:32
  a,
• 8:32
  a position.
• 8:33
  I'm not looking to grow any positions on this particular race at the moment.
• 8:36
  I want to see more
• 8:37
  play out.
• 8:38
  Uh,
• 8:38
  if this race gets super negative for Republicans,
• 8:41
  generally,
• 8:42
  it's gonna be really hard for Rogers,
• 8:43
  even as a good candidate against the socialists.
• 8:45
  As a,
• 8:46
  a socialist
• 8:47
  to win that race.
• 8:48
  On the other side of that,
• 8:50
  if
• 8:50
  things can maybe even out and get a little more,
• 8:54
  to moderate a little bit as far as the climate goes,
• 8:56
  it's a little bit more mild,
• 8:58
  maybe some prices drop,
• 8:59
  maybe the Iran war wraps up in some sort of way,
• 9:02
  or at least it feels calm.
• 9:04
  You might have a situation where Rodgers is competitive here,
• 9:07
  and I don't think that would be the case,
• 9:10
  honestly,
• 9:11
  if,
• 9:12
  uh,
• 9:12
  Stevens had won,
• 9:14
  she did not.
• 9:15
  So if you're a Republican looking for Rodgers to win,
• 9:18
  probably a good night for you last night.
• 9:20
  It was a good night for us last night.
• 9:22
  I'll tell you that unpredictable because
• 9:24
  We,
• 9:25
  we had a,
• 9:26
  uh,
• 9:26
  a long series of live chats yesterday.
• 9:28
  We did a preview,
• 9:29
  uh,
• 9:30
  yesterday,
• 9:30
  then we did,
• 9:31
  uh,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:33
  about 2025 minutes,
• 9:34
  maybe 30 minutes on Blaze TV's YouTube channel.
• 9:37
  We love Blaze TV.
• 9:38
  Talked to them about,
• 9:39
  um,
• 9:40
  you know,
• 9:40
  all the things that were coming as far as the politics of all of this.
• 9:43
  Then came over to the predictable channels on all social media.
• 9:46
  Hopefully you saw it on YouTube or XX or Facebook or
• 9:50
  Uh,
• 9:50
  Instaface,
• 9:51
  uh,
• 9:52
  Friendster,
• 9:53
  all the big ones were on all the time.
• 9:55
  And
• 9:56
  we got on,
• 9:56
  we did all that and we were on sub stack as well,
• 9:58
  uh,
• 9:59
  to everybody.
• 10:00
  And we went through the night,
• 10:01
  and I will say,
• 10:02
  when we ended the chat that went to everybody,
• 10:05
  I looked down at my positions and I was,
• 10:07
  you know,
• 10:07
  I took about a five-minute break in between streams.
• 10:09
  We had gone for
• 10:10
  over an hour.
• 10:12
  And,
• 10:12
  uh,
• 10:13
  it was just me talking.
• 10:14
  And frankly,
• 10:15
  I was sick of my voice.
• 10:16
  I can't imagine how you guys felt.
• 10:17
  And we got to the end of that chat,
• 10:19
  and I thought to myself,
• 10:20
  I'm gonna take a 5-minute break,
• 10:20
  kind of review my positions a little bit.
• 10:22
  And I looked at my positions and I was like,
• 10:24
  you know,
• 10:25
  it's been a good night.
• 10:26
  We're gonna be profitable again.
• 10:27
  It felt a lot like I felt after the South Dakota election a week or two ago,
• 10:31
  how I felt at a couple of these where there's not,
• 10:33
  there weren't a ton of interesting races.
• 10:36
  We did pretty well on,
• 10:37
  in what we got into,
• 10:39
  but there wasn't like
• 10:40
  massive stories for me to tell.
• 10:42
  And as that happens,
• 10:43
  I click over to the uh the subscriber chat
• 10:46
  and
• 10:47
  things start to change
• 10:48
  in a big way.
• 10:49
  Now,
• 10:50
  we have a,
• 10:51
  uh,
• 10:51
  premium subscriber tier over at PredictableShow.com.
• 10:54
  I'd love for you to join it.
• 10:55
  Uh,
• 10:55
  we have a free stream of the show as we're taping it,
• 10:58
  so you get that live and early.
• 10:59
  If you're investing in these markets,
• 11:01
  it's good to have this information early,
• 11:03
  uh,
• 11:03
  rather than
• 11:04
  before it goes to the wider audience and,
• 11:06
  and,
• 11:06
  you know,
• 11:06
  sometimes you get a situation where
• 11:08
  markets will move a little bit.
• 11:09
  Um,
• 11:10
  so you wanna get that information as early as possible.
• 11:12
  We also have a great community of people talking,
• 11:14
  uh,
• 11:14
  to each other and,
• 11:15
  and talking the positions out,
• 11:17
  and it's just a great way to understand markets and,
• 11:19
  and get deeper,
• 11:20
  you know,
• 11:21
  we have all sorts of,
• 11:21
  uh,
• 11:21
  you know,
• 11:22
  expert opinion and,
• 11:23
  and all sorts of,
• 11:23
  uh,
• 11:24
  great stuff that I think you really would
• 11:26
  enjoy.
• 11:28
  As part of the,
• 11:29
  part of the,
• 11:29
  uh,
• 11:29
  paid tier.
• 11:30
  One of the things though that people asked for the most was,
• 11:32
  hey,
• 11:32
  Stu,
• 11:33
  can you give us your picks?
• 11:34
  Can we see what picks,
• 11:35
  what positions you have
• 11:36
  in these markets
• 11:38
  so that we can either go with you on them or just make fun of you for how stupid you are.
• 11:42
  And,
• 11:43
  uh,
• 11:43
  we said,
• 11:44
  well,
• 11:44
  that's a great idea.
• 11:45
  We've made it part of our uh paid tier.
• 11:47
  And one of the ways that we communicate those to you.
• 11:49
  Um,
• 11:49
  is through our live chat.
• 11:51
  Now,
• 11:51
  so far,
• 11:52
  this is growing really,
• 11:53
  really fast,
• 11:53
  and I have to say thank you
• 11:54
  for how quickly,
• 11:56
  uh,
• 11:56
  you guys have jumped on board on this.
• 11:58
  Hopefully,
• 11:58
  it's because you're just making enough money
• 12:00
  to pay for it and it's not costing you anything,
• 12:02
  uh,
• 12:02
  cause that's,
• 12:03
  that's my goal here.
• 12:03
  I would love that.
• 12:04
  We're not a financial advice show.
• 12:06
  We don't,
• 12:06
  you know,
• 12:06
  that's not what we do.
• 12:07
  I'm not a certified financial advisor.
• 12:09
  I'm just a guy who really likes prediction markets and really likes politics
• 12:12
  and has been doing this for a long time.
• 12:14
  And I love walking you through the,
• 12:16
  the basic stuff at the very beginning.
• 12:19
  And also,
• 12:19
  you know,
• 12:19
  advanced trading strategies.
• 12:21
  Uh,
• 12:21
  so far,
• 12:22
  we've had great growth.
• 12:23
  Uh,
• 12:23
  this is the bestsellers in business,
• 12:25
  uh,
• 12:25
  and a rising list on,
• 12:26
  on all of Substack.
• 12:28
  Uh,
• 12:28
  we are number 3 currently,
• 12:29
  uh,
• 12:30
  behind,
• 12:31
  uh,
• 12:31
  Rachel Carton
• 12:32
  and Prof G Media.
• 12:34
  Uh,
• 12:35
  I'm sure they're wonderful.
• 12:36
  I will say,
• 12:36
  Rachel just put Lincoln bio as her description,
• 12:39
  and that,
• 12:40
  I mean,
• 12:40
  at least I put the name of the show.
• 12:41
  She just said,
• 12:42
  look,
• 12:42
  I'm not even gonna tell you what the name of the show is.
• 12:44
  You gotta click the link in bio.
• 12:45
  So we're going the extra mile for you.
• 12:47
  We typed it.
• 12:48
  OK,
• 12:49
  so we're just gonna just,
• 12:50
  I'm just gonna say that.
• 12:51
  OK,
• 12:51
  so.
• 12:52
  Uh,
• 12:53
  but you can join that,
• 12:53
  and one of the things you get is the paid subscriber chat
• 12:56
  where a lot of these picks will pop up for you.
• 12:58
  You'll also get a list of them.
• 12:59
  We're gonna be revealing that in a little bit.
• 13:01
  Uh,
• 13:01
  but here is,
• 13:02
  uh,
• 13:02
  this is how this all started.
• 13:03
  This is,
• 13:03
  uh,
• 13:04
  this is how it looks.
• 13:05
  You get this,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:06
  new positions for Tuesday's primaries,
• 13:08
  uh,
• 13:08
  and it's for paid subscribers only.
• 13:11
  When you click in there,
• 13:12
  I had a bunch of stuff that I listed,
• 13:13
  uh,
• 13:13
  and we'll tell you about all those positions in a minute.
• 13:15
  As usual,
• 13:15
  I will normally tell you about every position that I took,
• 13:18
  uh,
• 13:18
  the day after,
• 13:19
  uh,
• 13:19
  the election.
• 13:20
  And I posted this,
• 13:21
  uh,
• 13:21
  on Tuesday morning,
• 13:24
  uh,
• 13:24
  for these positions.
• 13:25
  I've taken a small position
• 13:26
  on Haley Stevens at about 1.5%.
• 13:30
  The goal here is not about Stevens winning as much as we hope for a spike
• 13:33
  during early vote counting.
• 13:35
  If you wanna play these types of games,
• 13:36
  make sure to set sales at different levels in advance.
• 13:39
  You don't wanna miss out,
• 13:40
  uh,
• 13:40
  on a spike if it happens.
• 13:41
  And that,
• 13:41
  and that's what
• 13:43
  Uh,
• 13:43
  this is a strategy we call laddering.
• 13:45
  We talk about it from time to time.
• 13:47
  If you don't know what it is,
• 13:47
  that's totally OK.
• 13:48
  It's,
• 13:49
  uh,
• 13:49
  you know,
• 13:49
  you don't need to know what it is to have
• 13:51
  some interest and have some fun on prediction markets,
• 13:53
  maybe make some money on prediction markets.
• 13:55
  But it is a sort of advanced strategy that we like to do.
• 13:57
  We've done it a few times this year,
• 13:59
  where you'll buy something
• 14:01
  at a price,
• 14:02
  uh,
• 14:02
  usually,
• 14:02
  uh,
• 14:03
  we usually do it at a really low price.
• 14:05
  We're taking a long shot.
• 14:06
  Someone who doesn't look like they have a chance to win,
• 14:08
  the market says they don't.
• 14:10
  Uh,
• 14:10
  and we'll,
• 14:11
  so with Haley,
• 14:11
  uh,
• 14:12
  Stevens,
• 14:12
  it was 1.5%. I think technically it was 1.35% I got in on.
• 14:16
  And we,
• 14:17
  you buy,
• 14:18
  what's fun about that is you get to buy a
• 14:19
  bunch of shares at that level because they're very,
• 14:21
  very cheap.
• 14:22
  You know,
• 14:22
  if you're buying at a cent,
• 14:24
  a 1000 shares cost you $10.
• 14:27
  OK?
• 14:27
  So it's,
• 14:28
  you can get a lot of shares for a low amount of price.
• 14:31
  And the idea was not necessarily to,
• 14:33
  to ride that from 1 cent up to a dollar.
• 14:36
  Getting,
• 14:36
  making 100 times your money,
• 14:37
  we would have taken that,
• 14:39
  would have accepted it,
• 14:40
  but a lot of times what you get when votes are released,
• 14:42
  if they get really,
• 14:43
  you never know how they're gonna come out,
• 14:44
  and sometimes they come out with more pro-Haley,
• 14:47
  uh,
• 14:48
  Stevens counties
• 14:49
  than El Sayed counties.
• 14:51
  If that were to happen,
• 14:52
  we'd see a situation likely where the markets would look
• 14:55
  at that and react a little bit and say,
• 14:56
  hey,
• 14:57
  wait a minute,
• 14:57
  maybe she's got a better than 1% chance,
• 14:59
  and maybe it goes up to 2 or 3 or 4.
• 15:01
  And if you've only,
• 15:02
  if you've bought something at 1,
• 15:03
  you sell at 4,
• 15:04
  you might recognize you do pretty well in that trade,
• 15:07
  OK?
• 15:08
  That's one of the things that we look for in these markets.
• 15:11
  Now,
• 15:11
  one of the things that we do as far as laddering is,
• 15:13
  if you buy at 1,
• 15:15
  we will immediately put sales
• 15:17
  on those shares at different levels up the price chain.
• 15:20
  So,
• 15:20
  you might buy at 1,
• 15:22
  you sell half your shares at 2.
• 15:24
  Right?
• 15:25
  Then you sell 25 shares at 3 and 25% shares at 4,
• 15:29
  or whatever it is.
• 15:30
  That way,
• 15:30
  if there is a spike and you're not paying attention,
• 15:33
  I,
• 15:33
  I don't want prediction markets to to rule your life.
• 15:37
  I want prediction markets
• 15:38
  to make your life better.
• 15:39
  I don't want you to have to have the night that
• 15:41
  I had where I was sitting around watching these things constantly.
• 15:43
  If you want to be that involved,
• 15:44
  awesome.
• 15:45
  I would love to have you.
• 15:46
  We love having you there.
• 15:47
  But for the average person,
• 15:48
  they're not gonna sit there constantly and,
• 15:50
  and pay attention 24 hours a day,
• 15:51
  and you shouldn't need to,
• 15:53
  right?
• 15:53
  These are things,
• 15:54
  these are,
• 15:54
  uh,
• 15:54
  I think,
• 15:55
  mechanisms to make your life better.
• 15:56
  For example,
• 15:57
  I want you you to be able to profit off a prediction market and
• 16:00
  then take your wife or your husband out to a nice uh steak dinner,
• 16:02
  right?
• 16:03
  I want you to be able to profit off a bunch of prediction
• 16:05
  markets over a season and maybe take your family on a great vacation,
• 16:08
  right?
• 16:08
  Those types of things
• 16:10
  make your life better.
• 16:11
  If you're hovering around your computer 24 hours a day,
• 16:13
  that doesn't happen.
• 16:14
  Plus,
• 16:15
  it disciplines you,
• 16:16
  right?
• 16:17
  When a market starts shooting up to the sky.
• 16:21
  You can't help but think to yourself,
• 16:22
  it's gonna keep going.
• 16:24
  If you ladder your sales and you just say,
• 16:26
  OK,
• 16:26
  I'm gonna sell 10% here,
• 16:28
  10% here,
• 16:28
  10% here,
• 16:29
  10% here,
• 16:30
  you wind up with a,
• 16:32
  you set that in advance and then you walk away,
• 16:34
  and if it hits those points,
• 16:35
  it,
• 16:36
  it checks the box for you and it sells them automatically.
• 16:39
  If not,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  then you don't,
• 16:41
  you,
• 16:41
  you don't profit on that particular investment,
• 16:43
  but you don't have to sit there and monitor it.
• 16:45
  There's a feature,
• 16:46
  if you'll notice this,
• 16:47
  if you're on Calci,
• 16:48
  occasionally we will ask you,
• 16:49
  uh,
• 16:49
  depending on what settings you have,
• 16:51
  if you want to,
• 16:52
  um,
• 16:52
  uh,
• 16:53
  like,
• 16:54
  uh,
• 16:54
  sell in advance.
• 16:55
  Like,
• 16:55
  do you,
• 16:56
  if it gets up to 60 years,
• 16:57
  if you buy it 30 and it gets to 60 or 70,
• 16:59
  do you wanna just sell it there.
• 17:00
  That's kind of what,
• 17:00
  what this is all about.
• 17:02
  So,
• 17:03
  that's what I did yesterday.
• 17:04
  A lot of people on PredictableShow.com,
• 17:06
  uh,
• 17:07
  did this as well as I,
• 17:08
  as I gave out,
• 17:08
  uh,
• 17:09
  that,
• 17:09
  uh,
• 17:09
  you know,
• 17:10
  pick earlier on in the day.
• 17:12
  So,
• 17:13
  to show you how much I did this cause I wound up spreading out a lot of shares,
• 17:17
  uh,
• 17:18
  you know,
• 17:18
  everyone,
• 17:19
  you gotta size this to your own portfolio,
• 17:21
  to your own interest,
• 17:22
  how much risk you can assess.
• 17:23
  I can't,
• 17:24
  I can't monitor that and micromanage it for you.
• 17:26
  You have to figure that out for yourself.
• 17:28
  We just give you a general guideline of where we are.
• 17:31
  I like to do ladder a bunch of times
• 17:33
  into a bunch of different places and see what happens.
• 17:35
  So I bought it one,
• 17:36
  just to give you a sense of how crazy this was,
• 17:38
  I went back and wrote it all down.
• 17:39
  I bought it 1.35%.
• 17:41
  And then
• 17:43
  We're sitting around.
• 17:44
  I said at one point,
• 17:45
  on the mainstream,
• 17:46
  gosh,
• 17:47
  I,
• 17:47
  you know,
• 17:47
  we're gonna miss a couple of these.
• 17:48
  We're gonna miss this Haley Stevens thing because,
• 17:51
  uh,
• 17:51
  I bought her at one and she just did.
• 17:52
  The,
• 17:53
  the votes came out
• 17:54
  and they were all L sided votes.
• 17:56
  He was up by like 20 points.
• 17:58
  And so there was no momentum at all for Stevens.
• 18:01
  She trickled down from 1.35%,
• 18:03
  uh,
• 18:04
  where I had bought it,
• 18:05
  uh,
• 18:05
  down to,
• 18:06
  I want to say it was,
• 18:07
  uh,
• 18:08
  uh,
• 18:08
  it actually at one point got all the way down to $0.1.
• 18:13
  Do I wish I had bought again in,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:15
  there?
• 18:15
  Yes,
• 18:15
  uh,
• 18:16
  but I did not.
• 18:16
  I,
• 18:16
  I just had my shares at $1.35.
• 18:20
  So I'm on the,
• 18:20
  I'm on the,
• 18:21
  the show and we're doing the
• 18:23
  sort of wrap up,
• 18:24
  right,
• 18:24
  with the,
• 18:26
  the premium subscribers.
• 18:28
  And
• 18:29
  I'm looking,
• 18:29
  I'm clicking around,
• 18:30
  we're looking at other races,
• 18:31
  frankly.
• 18:32
  And all of a sudden I look over at Haley Stevens,
• 18:34
  and she's back up to like 2.
• 18:38
  That's interesting.
• 18:38
  I,
• 18:39
  too,
• 18:40
  I mean,
• 18:40
  uh,
• 18:40
  if it gets a little higher,
• 18:41
  it's gonna sell some shares for me and I'll,
• 18:42
  maybe I won't lose
• 18:44
  this money that I put in and it wasn't a huge position.
• 18:46
  It was a what we call a small position
• 18:48
  with 5 levels of,
• 18:50
  of,
• 18:50
  uh,
• 18:50
  positions that we talked about,
• 18:52
  marker being the smallest,
• 18:53
  then small,
• 18:53
  medium,
• 18:54
  large,
• 18:54
  and then all in.
• 18:55
  And so it's a small position.
• 18:56
  It wasn't nothing,
• 18:57
  but it was,
• 18:58
  you know,
• 18:58
  it was small.
• 18:59
  And
• 19:00
  it ticks up again.
• 19:01
  It goes up to 2 or 3.
• 19:03
  Now,
• 19:03
  I think like around,
• 19:04
  I think I had a sales set around 3 or 3.2,
• 19:07
  uh,
• 19:08
  no,
• 19:08
  maybe,
• 19:08
  no,
• 19:08
  it was 4.
• 19:09
  I'm looking at it now,
• 19:10
  4.1 is where I for some reason put my first ladder position,
• 19:13
  my first ladder rung.
• 19:15
  So,
• 19:16
  eventually it rises and it hits 4.1,
• 19:18
  and I sell some shares,
• 19:19
  and I'm like,
• 19:20
  this is incredible.
• 19:21
  I,
• 19:21
  I thought I was absolutely dead in this position,
• 19:23
  absolutely dead.
• 19:25
  Picks up again.
• 19:27
  My next letter wrong,
• 19:28
  kicks that.
• 19:29
  I sell at 5.9,
• 19:30
  then I sell at 7.1,
• 19:32
  then I sell at 8.2.
• 19:35
  I can't believe this.
• 19:36
  At this point,
• 19:37
  I'm well into profit,
• 19:39
  and this position I thought was completely dead.
• 19:41
  We are now profitable and decently profitable.
• 19:44
  I was excited about that.
• 19:46
  It falls back down and this is what I expected,
• 19:48
  it's just gonna go back down,
• 19:49
  mini minimal blurb,
• 19:50
  right?
• 19:51
  Because it falls back down,
• 19:51
  but I still sell some more.
• 19:52
  I sell some at 3,
• 19:53
  and I sell some at 3.8.
• 19:55
  And then it starts going up again.
• 19:57
  And it crosses all those areas that all the rungs that we'd already knocked out,
• 20:01
  keeps rising,
• 20:02
  keeps rising,
• 20:03
  keeps rising.
• 20:05
  I then get a sale in at 17.
• 20:07
  Now remember,
• 20:08
  we bought this at $1.35.
• 20:11
  We're selling it at 17.
• 20:13
  Then we get a sale at 19.
• 20:16
  Another sale,
• 20:17
  it kind of comes down again,
• 20:18
  10.7,
• 20:19
  6.5,
• 20:20
  6.2,
• 20:21
  7.5,
• 20:22
  comes up again,
• 20:23
  9.9%.
• 20:25
  Another sale at 15,
• 20:26
  another sale at 21.
• 20:28
  And another sale at 29.
• 20:32
  Another one at 17 on the way down,
• 20:35
  that was our last sale of the night.
• 20:36
  So I had all those sales in there.
• 20:39
  And
• 20:40
  I'm looking at this now.
• 20:41
  It's one of the most profitable trades of my year.
• 20:44
  This has,
• 20:46
  this went from a complete disaster
• 20:49
  to,
• 20:49
  uh,
• 20:50
  uh,
• 20:51
  one of the most profitable trades of the year.
• 20:52
  I'm looking through the predictable live chat.
• 20:54
  They were all on there.
• 20:55
  They saw me,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:57
  early in the morning talk about this position.
• 20:59
  Many of them took it.
• 21:00
  They're taking,
• 21:00
  some of them taking smaller profits,
• 21:02
  some of them taking bigger profits.
• 21:03
  I talked to a guy last night
• 21:05
  who,
• 21:05
  uh,
• 21:06
  who had,
• 21:06
  uh,
• 21:07
  3000 shares he bought
• 21:09
  and went to bed.
• 21:11
  Thinking he had lost all the money,
• 21:13
  wakes up and then he's then wound up selling it at like $10.2
• 21:17
  in the middle of the night,
• 21:18
  like midnight.
• 21:19
  Didn't even know,
• 21:20
  he wasn't even awake for it.
• 21:21
  It was fantastic.
• 21:23
  All this is going on.
• 21:25
  I finally post some of the details about the tweet,
• 21:27
  and then I see a,
• 21:28
  a response from Scottylicious,
• 21:29
  who we just talked to the other day.
• 21:31
  He's a poly-market trader
• 21:33
  who's made,
• 21:33
  uh,
• 21:34
  about $2 million on prediction markets.
• 21:36
  He tweets this.
• 21:38
  He says,
• 21:38
  uh,
• 21:39
  heard,
• 21:39
  heard,
• 21:40
  I talked about my position on Haley Stevens.
• 21:41
  He said,
• 21:42
  I heard that earlier while I was driving
• 21:44
  and thought it was a smart call.
• 21:45
  Should have bought some.
• 21:46
  So we've even got Scottylicious
• 21:48
  on the board.
• 21:49
  Which is very,
• 21:50
  very exciting
• 21:51
  and puts us in a position that we must recognize this trade now.
• 21:55
  This is not
• 21:56
  a normal trade.
• 21:58
  It was a freaking
• 22:00
  rollercoaster.
• 22:01
  It was so much fun.
• 22:03
  It was just a great time to go through with all the people on the chat.
• 22:06
  It was just,
• 22:07
  uh,
• 22:07
  you know,
• 22:08
  just a blast to do.
• 22:09
  And when you get in a run like that,
• 22:10
  it's just,
• 22:11
  it's intoxicating,
• 22:11
  it really is.
• 22:12
  Uh,
• 22:13
  it goes up and up and up and up and up,
• 22:14
  and with that going on and all the things associated with it,
• 22:17
  it's time for a new induction
• 22:20
  into the predictable with Stu
• 22:22
  pantheon
• 22:24
  of victory.
• 22:25
  Yes,
• 22:26
  the pantheon of victory where we put all
• 22:28
  of our Hall of Fame trades
• 22:31
  from any given season.
• 22:32
  We need some like.
• 22:34
  I don't know,
• 22:34
  Oscars music here or something,
• 22:36
  Adam.
• 22:37
  I mean,
• 22:37
  we need some,
• 22:38
  this is a big moment.
• 22:40
  Churn on the energy,
• 22:41
  this is huge,
• 22:42
  the pantheon of victory is back,
• 22:45
  and we've named this trade.
• 22:49
  The Haley Hail Mary.
• 22:52
  We are now inducting it into the pantheon of victory forevermore.
• 22:58
  Yeah,
• 22:58
  I mean,
• 22:58
  even if
• 22:59
  the Haley Hail Mary later
• 23:01
  winds up murdering his wife and some,
• 23:03
  uh,
• 23:03
  guy from the local restaurant,
• 23:06
  we still keep them in
• 23:07
  the pantheon of victory.
• 23:09
  There's no way to get out of it.
• 23:10
  Once you're in it,
• 23:11
  you're in it.
• 23:12
  And here are the details.
• 23:14
  The Haley,
• 23:14
  Hail Mary.
• 23:15
  Haley Stevens to win in Michigan at the Democrat static primary,
• 23:17
  who bought at $1.35.
• 23:21
  Our max profit.
• 23:24
  Amazingly,
• 23:25
  we sold at 29 cents,
• 23:27
  up 2,048.15%
• 23:31
  on that trade.
• 23:33
  Combining all of our latter positions as we rode that up and down
• 23:37
  and up and down as I just talked to you about it,
• 23:39
  combined profit on the trade,
• 23:41
  704.66%.
• 23:46
  And this is,
• 23:46
  by the way,
• 23:48
  in an election,
• 23:49
  she didn't even win.
• 23:50
  She wound up losing,
• 23:52
  and we still churned out 704.66%.
• 23:57
  What
• 23:58
  a freaking
• 23:59
  ride,
• 24:00
  ladies and gentlemen.
• 24:01
  What a flat,
• 24:02
  what,
• 24:02
  what a blast that was
• 24:04
  to go through all of that
• 24:06
  with you.
• 24:06
  And I talked to a bunch of people who made hundreds and hundreds of percent
• 24:10
  on their investments,
• 24:12
  no matter what size you had.
• 24:14
  It was a very active market,
• 24:15
  plenty of liquidity for you to get in and out of it whenever you wanted.
• 24:19
  Uh,
• 24:19
  you know,
• 24:19
  millions and millions of dollars change hands,
• 24:21
  and many of those dollars
• 24:23
  went into,
• 24:24
  uh,
• 24:24
  our subscribers' pockets.
• 24:26
  And that
• 24:27
  makes me really,
• 24:28
  really,
• 24:28
  really happy.
• 24:29
  So,
• 24:29
  I'm so glad we hit this one.
• 24:31
  You know,
• 24:32
  it's one of those situations.
• 24:33
  We've done very,
• 24:34
  very well in this primary season,
• 24:35
  very well.
• 24:35
  We haven't had one losing week yet.
• 24:37
  Um,
• 24:37
  and,
• 24:38
  you know,
• 24:38
  again,
• 24:38
  knocking on.
• 24:41
  Would
• 24:42
  on that one because,
• 24:43
  again,
• 24:43
  it it's gonna happen eventually,
• 24:44
  you're not gonna win every single one.
• 24:46
  I can't promise you 1000%,
• 24:48
  2,000%.
• 24:49
  We've hit a few of those.
• 24:51
  You,
• 24:51
  you can't promise that every single time.
• 24:52
  You,
• 24:52
  you don't know when those are gonna come up.
• 24:54
  They come up sometimes,
• 24:55
  they don't come up other times.
• 24:58
  But I will say,
• 25:00
  it is a,
• 25:01
  a,
• 25:01
  a,
• 25:01
  a great,
• 25:02
  um,
• 25:03
  uh,
• 25:04
  uh,
• 25:04
  a great honor,
• 25:05
  honestly,
• 25:05
  to be able to do all of this with you and be
• 25:07
  able to go through these adventures on a week to week basis.
• 25:10
  If you wanna get involved in it,
• 25:11
  you can do,
• 25:12
  I'm gonna give you lots of this stuff
• 25:13
  for free at predictableShow.com and on this podcast.
• 25:16
  If you watch it,
• 25:16
  if you take it in.
• 25:18
  Uh,
• 25:18
  we're gonna do our best to cover everything in prediction markets,
• 25:21
  cover the news of the world,
• 25:23
  and,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:23
  help you
• 25:24
  profit a little bit and get in these moments where you can,
• 25:27
  you can turn these types of profits.
• 25:29
  Um,
• 25:30
  if you wanna get a higher level than that,
• 25:31
  we would love that as well.
• 25:33
  A PredictableShow.com on the premium tier.
• 25:35
  One thing to note on that tier.
• 25:37
  We give away
• 25:38
  those picks uh before the elections.
• 25:40
  We'll always roll those out for you either in the chat or on a different page.
• 25:44
  And coming this Friday,
• 25:46
  we're going to release
• 25:48
  my entire portfolio.
• 25:50
  Every single pick that I have
• 25:52
  is gonna be out there for you to pick through and look at.
• 25:56
  We want to keep that updated for you on a day to day basis if you are a trader and,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:01
  or just someone who really is interested.
• 26:03
  Um,
• 26:03
  if you're a premium member,
• 26:04
  I think if you're,
• 26:05
  I think if you're a trader on these things,
• 26:06
  I think the premium member thing is more than worth it.
• 26:09
  I,
• 26:09
  I don't,
• 26:09
  I frankly don't even think it's close.
• 26:11
  I know I would join this if I,
• 26:12
  even,
• 26:13
  honestly,
• 26:13
  not even for my stuff,
• 26:14
  just for the community,
• 26:15
  I would join it.
• 26:16
  Um,
• 26:16
  but
• 26:17
  for my stuff as well,
• 26:17
  I think you'll like it.
• 26:18
  There's a lot of good picks in there,
• 26:19
  a lot that we've done very well on,
• 26:21
  a few that sucked.
• 26:23
  Uh,
• 26:23
  that you can make,
• 26:24
  you,
• 26:24
  you can go in the chat and make fun of me.
• 26:25
  That part of the membership
• 26:27
  is included.
• 26:28
  Uh,
• 26:29
  but if you wanna be involved in that,
• 26:30
  on Friday,
• 26:30
  we're gonna do kind of like a,
• 26:32
  an album release party,
• 26:33
  uh,
• 26:33
  where we kinda do a live stream.
• 26:34
  I explained to you what these,
• 26:35
  uh,
• 26:36
  you know,
• 26:36
  where you're gonna find this information.
• 26:38
  Uh,
• 26:38
  how all this is gonna work
• 26:40
  and,
• 26:40
  um,
• 26:41
  you know,
• 26:41
  I'll go through some of the positions and you can make fun of me for some of them.
• 26:44
  That,
• 26:44
  that's fine too.
• 26:45
  Uh,
• 26:45
  it's gonna be on Friday,
• 26:46
  uh,
• 26:47
  I think it's gonna be around lunchtime at some point.
• 26:49
  Uh,
• 26:49
  the,
• 26:49
  the Times will put up,
• 26:50
  uh,
• 26:50
  on unpredictableShow.com.
• 26:52
  Just go there and just become a paid subscriber,
• 26:54
  uh,
• 26:55
  if you're interested in that type of thing.
• 26:56
  If not,
• 26:57
  still great information coming to you
• 26:58
  on the free side as well.
• 27:00
  No pressure,
• 27:01
  just would love to have you be part of it if you feel
• 27:03
  like it's worth it for you and only if you feel that way
• 27:05
  because I honestly think
• 27:07
  Uh,
• 27:07
  especially if you're trading on these markets,
• 27:09
  it will be,
• 27:09
  uh,
• 27:10
  and if not,
• 27:11
  we'd love to have your support
• 27:12
  either way.
• 27:12
  If you think it's the worst expenditure of money
• 27:14
  you've ever thought of in your entire life,
• 27:16
  but you can justify it because you're a billionaire,
• 27:18
  that's fine too.
• 27:20
  I,
• 27:20
  you know,
• 27:20
  I've,
• 27:20
  we've done market research on this show.
• 27:22
  I've seen like when they're like,
• 27:23
  oh,
• 27:24
  they go through all like,
• 27:24
  oh gosh,
• 27:25
  well,
• 27:25
  the,
• 27:25
  you know,
• 27:25
  the average listener is this age and,
• 27:27
  and blah,
• 27:28
  blah,
• 27:28
  blah,
• 27:28
  and they have all that stuff.
• 27:29
  You guys seem to be elitists,
• 27:31
  frankly.
• 27:32
  And,
• 27:32
  uh,
• 27:32
  I'm a little,
• 27:33
  uh,
• 27:33
  uh,
• 27:34
  you know,
• 27:34
  as an everyman,
• 27:35
  OK?
• 27:36
  I,
• 27:36
  I'm a little offended.
• 27:37
  Uh,
• 27:38
  you guys,
• 27:38
  I don't know how many,
• 27:39
  uh,
• 27:39
  uh,
• 27:39
  uh,
• 27:39
  you know,
• 27:40
  every time,
• 27:40
  I don't know how many vacations you're going on a year.
• 27:42
  I don't know,
• 27:43
  uh,
• 27:43
  I don't know what's going on with you,
• 27:44
  OK?
• 27:45
  You seem to be the rich elite.
• 27:48
  That being said,
• 27:49
  uh,
• 27:49
  I love having you here.
• 27:50
  Uh,
• 27:50
  I like elitists.
• 27:51
  I wanna be one.
• 27:52
  I aspire to be 11 day.
• 27:54
  Maybe I can be,
• 27:55
  maybe I can look down on others
• 27:57
  as well.
• 27:58
  I someday
• 27:59
  will do that and I will come up with a fancy accent and speak fancifully,
• 28:04
  and all of that is in my future,
• 28:06
  but
• 28:06
  whatever,
• 28:07
  we'll get there together.
• 28:07
  The election is coming up.
• 28:09
  It's less than,
• 28:09
  how many days away is it now?
• 28:10
  Do we know?
• 28:11
  90-something?
• 28:12
  It's not,
• 28:12
  we need to come up with a day,
• 28:13
  uh,
• 28:14
  a day thing that we pop up,
• 28:15
  Adam,
• 28:15
  that tells people how many days they're out for
• 28:17
  the election cause there's so much to go through.
• 28:19
  OK,
• 28:19
  I gotta take a break.
• 28:19
  I went super,
• 28:20
  super long there.
• 28:21
  We'll come back on the other side.
• 28:22
  We'll go through some of the positions that I
• 28:24
  had and a couple of markets that I kinda like
• 28:26
  that you might wanna get involved in
• 28:28
  next.
• 28:40
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 28:42
  It's predictableShow.com.
• 28:44
  We've got audience,
• 28:45
  winners and losers coming up here in just a 2nd.
• 28:48
  1st,
• 28:48
  I owe you all of my positions and what happened yesterday with them.
• 28:52
  Uh,
• 28:52
  pretty good night.
• 28:53
  Uh,
• 28:53
  we had Mike Rogers to win in Michigan for the Republican side.
• 28:56
  No surprise there.
• 28:57
  That is a win.
• 28:58
  Michigan 13,
• 28:59
  we had McKinney.
• 29:00
  This was an interesting
• 29:02
  run,
• 29:03
  honestly.
• 29:03
  Uh,
• 29:04
  McKinney was about a 75,
• 29:06
  80%,
• 29:07
  um,
• 29:08
  person.
• 29:08
  Uh,
• 29:09
  when we were purchasing it,
• 29:11
  uh,
• 29:11
  wound up kind of going way up and then way down and then way back up again,
• 29:15
  finishing with a victory,
• 29:16
  so that is a win.
• 29:18
  I've already told you about El Sayed,
• 29:19
  the Democrat.
• 29:20
  We actually won with him leading up to the election,
• 29:23
  bought at about 80.
• 29:24
  And then the day before the election,
• 29:26
  sold that at 97,
• 29:28
  took that profit,
• 29:29
  and obviously we had then
• 29:31
  the,
• 29:31
  uh,
• 29:31
  Haley,
• 29:32
  Hail Mary,
• 29:32
  which kicked into gear
• 29:34
  and gave us,
• 29:34
  uh,
• 29:35
  something like a 700+%
• 29:38
  win.
• 29:39
  So both of those are wins.
• 29:41
  Michigan 10 was Hines on the Democratic side and we had a win there.
• 29:45
  In Washington,
• 29:46
  we had Cessler to advance in,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:50
  in Washington.
• 29:51
  Uh,
• 29:52
  in his race,
• 29:52
  and we did not get that.
• 29:53
  He did not advance,
• 29:54
  so that was a loss.
• 29:56
  In Michigan '07,
• 29:57
  1 of our,
• 29:58
  uh,
• 29:58
  larger positions was Lawrence,
• 30:00
  uh,
• 30:00
  as a Democratic candidate in Michigan '07,
• 30:03
  that was a win.
• 30:04
  In Missouri 006,
• 30:06
  Steagall,
• 30:07
  uh,
• 30:07
  representative,
• 30:08
  uh,
• 30:08
  he was,
• 30:08
  he's a talk show host.
• 30:10
  Uh,
• 30:10
  we wound up hitting with that.
• 30:11
  Uh,
• 30:11
  that was a yes.
• 30:13
  Uh,
• 30:14
  Michigan 11 was Moss,
• 30:15
  the Democrat,
• 30:16
  that was a yes.
• 30:18
  Kansas Democrat Senate,
• 30:19
  uh,
• 30:20
  nominee.
• 30:20
  Hamilton was a yes.
• 30:22
  We got that one.
• 30:24
  governor,
• 30:24
  governor for Republican side in Kansas as well,
• 30:26
  Masterson was a win.
• 30:28
  In Virginia,
• 30:29
  the Republican Senate,
• 30:30
  uh,
• 30:31
  candidate was Mizuzawa.
• 30:32
  We did hit that as well.
• 30:34
  Now that was a win.
• 30:36
  Really interesting one happened,
• 30:37
  uh,
• 30:38
  a couple of interesting ones.
• 30:39
  First of all,
• 30:39
  El Sayed,
• 30:40
  another position we had on that.
• 30:42
  In the margin,
• 30:43
  uh,
• 30:43
  markets,
• 30:44
  this is how much does a candidate win by,
• 30:46
  not just who will win,
• 30:46
  but how much will they win by.
• 30:48
  We took a long shot position,
• 30:50
  uh,
• 30:50
  not really a long shot.
• 30:51
  I keep saying that,
• 30:51
  but it's not,
• 30:52
  it wasn't really a long shot.
• 30:54
  It was a 50/50 type of thing.
• 30:56
  Technically,
• 30:56
  we got it at 57,
• 30:57
  and this was for El Sayed to win by more than 15 points.
• 31:02
  I,
• 31:02
  I,
• 31:02
  I,
• 31:02
  I didn't,
• 31:03
  I didn't have a super high amount of confidence,
• 31:05
  but I thought there was a decent chance he would win there.
• 31:08
  And we picked up a position,
• 31:09
  uh,
• 31:10
  uh,
• 31:10
  uh,
• 31:11
  there
• 31:11
  at 57.
• 31:13
  As the vote came out,
• 31:14
  you heard me tell the story of the Haley Hail Mary.
• 31:16
  At first,
• 31:17
  it came out and it was very much in favor of El Sayed.
• 31:19
  So it went,
• 31:20
  he was up by over 20 points.
• 31:22
  And at that point,
• 31:23
  the 15 plus margin market went all the way from 57
• 31:28
  up to in the 90s.
• 31:30
  We decided to sell at 94 and I'm glad I did because he only won by,
• 31:34
  he,
• 31:34
  he didn't even win by 1.
• 31:36
  He
• 31:36
  won by less than 1 point.
• 31:38
  So we took that,
• 31:39
  and it's weird,
• 31:40
  it's a weird one because we weren't right on the end of the game position there,
• 31:44
  but we sold at the right time,
• 31:46
  taking that from.
• 31:46
  57
• 31:47
  to 94 for a 65% profit.
• 31:50
  So
• 31:50
  that,
• 31:50
  of course,
• 31:51
  is a win.
• 31:52
  And then in Kansas,
• 31:53
  another,
• 31:54
  honestly,
• 31:54
  this,
• 31:54
  I thought that was going to be my big one of the night.
• 31:56
  I thought this is what I'm gonna be excited about.
• 31:58
  We took a long shot on,
• 31:59
  uh,
• 31:59
  Carson as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.
• 32:03
  He had a lot of endorsements.
• 32:04
  He kind of was seen initially as
• 32:06
  Uh,
• 32:06
  the candidate that was gonna win this race.
• 32:09
  It had been a bumpy road,
• 32:10
  but he wasn't that far back in polls and some of the fundamentals I liked with him.
• 32:14
  The previous governor who's a Democrat,
• 32:16
  endorsed him.
• 32:17
  Uh,
• 32:17
  and anyway,
• 32:18
  long story short,
• 32:19
  we bought that at $1.3
• 32:21
  and sold it at $5.5
• 32:24
  on average
• 32:25
  for a profit of 284.6%.
• 32:29
  We're happy with that.
• 32:29
  And what happened as well,
• 32:30
  we sold it there.
• 32:32
  Then started looking at the other side because it,
• 32:34
  you know,
• 32:34
  um,
• 32:34
  uh,
• 32:35
  Holsher was the,
• 32:37
  uh,
• 32:37
  opponent came,
• 32:38
  uh,
• 32:38
  started coming down
• 32:39
  a little bit and we were looking at the maps in real time
• 32:42
  what vote was remaining,
• 32:44
  what was still outlying to me,
• 32:46
  it looked more like Holsher vote
• 32:48
  was outlying.
• 32:49
  So we wound up going back into that market.
• 32:52
  Uh,
• 32:52
  uh,
• 32:52
  this is all happening on the live stream,
• 32:54
  uh,
• 32:54
  went back into that market for Holshcher and rode her up
• 32:57
  and made 25% profit,
• 32:59
  uh,
• 32:59
  on her victory as well.
• 33:00
  So that was a really good market for us.
• 33:02
  Kansas treated us very well last night.
• 33:04
  I don't know how well Kansas normally treats people,
• 33:06
  but they treated us pretty well last night.
• 33:08
  And then I also need to tell you,
• 33:09
  I promised you this
• 33:11
  about
• 33:12
  probably my biggest miss of the year.
• 33:15
  I've had some misses,
• 33:16
  right?
• 33:17
  I've had some where,
• 33:18
  um,
• 33:19
  you know,
• 33:19
  they've been really,
• 33:20
  really close.
• 33:20
  I mean,
• 33:21
  we had a,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:22
  margin market long shot that we missed by 0.8%
• 33:25
  a couple of weeks ago.
• 33:27
  Haley Stevens,
• 33:28
  I mean,
• 33:29
  she wound up losing that race by 0.9%.
• 33:32
  If she would have won,
• 33:33
  we wouldn't be talking about,
• 33:34
  uh,
• 33:34
  selling at 29 cents.
• 33:35
  We would have been taking that all the way to $1 maybe with some of those shares,
• 33:39
  and the profits would have been even bigger on the Haley Hail Mary.
• 33:42
  Had some close calls that we've just missed.
• 33:44
  I've had some where I've just been wrong and it didn't work and,
• 33:47
  you know,
• 33:47
  you shrug your shoulders and say,
• 33:48
  I,
• 33:48
  I kind of read that one wrong.
• 33:50
  No race
• 33:51
  have I read more wrong
• 33:53
  than the race
• 33:54
  for Corey Bush's
• 33:56
  former seat.
• 33:57
  Corey Bush,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 33:59
  my analysis was this.
• 34:01
  She was close last time.
• 34:02
  She lost to,
• 34:03
  uh,
• 34:04
  was it Wesley Bell,
• 34:05
  is her opponent.
• 34:07
  She lost to Bell last time in 2024 in a close race by about 5 points.
• 34:12
  Remember,
• 34:12
  2024,
• 34:13
  good Republican year.
• 34:14
  A year where socialism is not necessarily the
• 34:17
  most popular thing to be talking about.
• 34:19
  Corey Bush is a crazy squad member.
• 34:21
  She's a,
• 34:21
  you know,
• 34:22
  a loud mouth,
• 34:22
  not very,
• 34:23
  uh,
• 34:24
  not very,
• 34:24
  uh,
• 34:24
  you know,
• 34:25
  palatable,
• 34:26
  uh,
• 34:26
  to,
• 34:27
  to some people.
• 34:28
  And so,
• 34:29
  Wesley Bell comes in,
• 34:30
  he's a little bit more refined.
• 34:31
  He gets a bunch of money from AIPAC who
• 34:33
  don't like Corey Bush because she's very anti-Israel.
• 34:36
  And so this all comes out,
• 34:37
  she,
• 34:38
  she wins,
• 34:38
  uh,
• 34:39
  she loses that race by 5 points and loses her seat.
• 34:41
  She's decides she's gonna make a comeback.
• 34:42
  She's very well known
• 34:44
  in the area,
• 34:44
  of course.
• 34:44
  She had a 5-point loss last time or 6-point loss last time.
• 34:48
  Uh,
• 34:49
  and then,
• 34:50
  you know,
• 34:50
  she's embracing this socialism
• 34:52
  aspect,
• 34:53
  which is winning in races all across the country
• 34:56
  when we're talking about
• 34:57
  big cities.
• 35:00
  Uh,
• 35:00
  everything pointing to Corey Bush way.
• 35:02
  Uh,
• 35:02
  also,
• 35:03
  she is now,
• 35:03
  AIPAC has gone from this thing,
• 35:05
  which is like,
• 35:05
  oh gosh,
• 35:06
  uh,
• 35:06
  you know,
• 35:06
  on the Democratic side.
• 35:08
  Well,
• 35:08
  I don't know if you want to take that money from AIPAC,
• 35:10
  a little bit questionable,
• 35:11
  to like the enemy of the universe in 2 years,
• 35:14
  right?
• 35:14
  Like this has been a situation where
• 35:16
  they,
• 35:17
  the Democrats have not treated AIPAC money very well,
• 35:19
  as we just saw in Michigan,
• 35:21
  right?
• 35:21
  A statewide election.
• 35:24
  So in 2024,
• 35:25
  Corey Bush lost by 6.
• 35:27
  With all of that going for her,
• 35:29
  what did she turn that into?
• 35:30
  And I remind you,
• 35:31
  I said this before,
• 35:32
  I said,
• 35:33
  look,
• 35:33
  the only thing holding me back from going bigger in this race
• 35:35
  is that Corey Bush is so insane,
• 35:38
  it's possible even people who like socialists
• 35:41
  think she's too nuts.
• 35:44
  2024,
• 35:45
  she loses by 6% to this guy.
• 35:47
  2026 rematch,
• 35:48
  she loses by
• 35:49
  23%.
• 35:51
  Goes totally the opposite way and gets absolutely destroyed
• 35:56
  by 23 points.
• 35:59
  I had a small position on Corey Bush,
• 36:01
  which was absolutely a loss,
• 36:03
  a smack in the face on that one.
• 36:05
  But
• 36:05
  overall,
• 36:06
  it was a very good night.
• 36:07
  We went 13 and 2 on the night on the positions that we
• 36:11
  took.
• 36:11
  So we're happy with that.
• 36:12
  And I think a lot of you were happy as well.
• 36:15
  Here's what we saw
• 36:16
  from your message.
• 36:17
  Uh,
• 36:18
  Scott writes,
• 36:18
  what a night,
• 36:19
  went 14 and 1.
• 36:21
  Only Corey Bush was in the red.
• 36:23
  Sorry about that one.
• 36:24
  the Haley,
• 36:24
  Hail Mary was fun and profitable in the words of the great prophet Rocky,
• 36:28
  amaze,
• 36:29
  amaze,
• 36:29
  amaze,
• 36:30
  which is,
• 36:30
  if you don't know,
• 36:30
  haven't seen that movie,
• 36:31
  you should
• 36:32
  go see it.
• 36:33
  Go see it.
• 36:33
  That movie is,
• 36:34
  of course,
• 36:34
  called what?
• 36:36
  Anyone?
• 36:37
  Anyone?
• 36:38
  Project Hail Mary.
• 36:39
  Thank you.
• 36:39
  Oh my God,
• 36:40
  we're talking about the Haley Hail Mary
• 36:42
  and the Project Hail Mary,
• 36:43
  uh,
• 36:43
  reference.
• 36:44
  I think I knew that at the time,
• 36:44
  but I'd forgotten about it.
• 36:46
  OK.
• 36:46
  Um,
• 36:47
  let's go to Patriot Reliance.
• 36:48
  He says,
• 36:48
  made 377%
• 36:51
  on the Haley Hail Mary.
• 36:52
  I only dipped my toes in,
• 36:53
  so it wasn't life-changing money,
• 36:55
  but it added a little more to the bankroll and it was
• 36:57
  a fun time watching the results come in live during the stream.
• 36:59
  Thanks to Stu and the team for introducing me to this strategy.
• 37:02
  It's a fun one for sure.
• 37:03
  And thanks so much,
• 37:04
  uh,
• 37:04
  Patriot Reliance,
• 37:05
  we appreciate it.
• 37:06
  Uh,
• 37:07
  Donna writes in.
• 37:09
  I just collected on Bert Mizuzawa in Virginia.
• 37:12
  Thanks,
• 37:13
  too.
• 37:13
  Yeah,
• 37:14
  Bert,
• 37:14
  I don't know if Bert's gonna win the general.
• 37:16
  I don't think he is,
• 37:16
  but he won the nomination.
• 37:17
  Congratulations
• 37:19
  to Bert.
• 37:20
  See,
• 37:20
  Money writes in,
• 37:21
  I totally called the El Sayed thing wrong.
• 37:23
  I did profit on it before the election by selling in the mid-nineties,
• 37:26
  but I assumed that Wayne County,
• 37:28
  being both the Democratic part of the state
• 37:30
  and from,
• 37:31
  uh,
• 37:31
  where El Sayed was from,
• 37:33
  Going to do very well for El Sayed
• 37:35
  and expand his lead rather than shrink it.
• 37:37
  He's talking about in the moment we're going through the,
• 37:39
  the votes of this,
• 37:40
  uh,
• 37:40
  county,
• 37:40
  and I also kind of thought the same way on this.
• 37:42
  I thought Wayne
• 37:43
  would go much more
• 37:45
  favorably
• 37:46
  for,
• 37:46
  uh,
• 37:46
  El Sayed.
• 37:47
  He says,
• 37:47
  I didn't realize Wayne County had a track
• 37:49
  record of favoring establishment candidates over progressives.
• 37:52
  Assumptions starts with a certain word.
• 37:54
  I also lost on a medium by on Amir Hassan.
• 37:57
  In Michigan 8.
• 37:58
  I truly think it was because of his name.
• 38:00
  Every other position,
• 38:01
  it worked out nicely and at least minimized the damage,
• 38:03
  but I did lose a small amount yesterday.
• 38:05
  You're gonna have some days where you,
• 38:06
  you lose a little bit.
• 38:08
  That's OK.
• 38:09
  Uh,
• 38:09
  it's just about understanding the process and understanding,
• 38:12
  uh,
• 38:12
  the risks that you took.
• 38:13
  By the way,
• 38:13
  uh,
• 38:13
  Amir Hassan.
• 38:15
  You lose on that one,
• 38:16
  who could have seen that one coming?
• 38:18
  Amir,
• 38:18
  if you don't know the story,
• 38:19
  Amir Hassan
• 38:20
  lost to a candidate
• 38:22
  who had dropped out of the race like a month earlier
• 38:25
  because Donald Trump endorsed Amir Hassan.
• 38:28
  I,
• 38:29
  honestly,
• 38:29
  if I had to followed that race more closely,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:31
  leading up to this,
• 38:32
  I probably would have been in the same boat and gone with Amir Hassan.
• 38:35
  Luckily,
• 38:36
  this is when,
• 38:36
  uh,
• 38:37
  your ignorance pays off,
• 38:38
  boys and girls.
• 38:39
  I didn't wind up getting in that race and,
• 38:40
  uh,
• 38:41
  protected me from probably what would have been a small,
• 38:43
  a small loss.
• 38:44
  Overall though,
• 38:45
  the predictable show subscribers did very,
• 38:47
  very well.
• 38:48
  Hopefully you did as well.
• 38:49
  If you ever have,
• 38:50
  uh,
• 38:50
  positions that you're taking,
• 38:51
  if you're interested in,
• 38:52
  I got into this new market.
• 38:53
  I've got this,
• 38:54
  uh,
• 38:54
  new,
• 38:55
  uh,
• 38:55
  new thing I'm thinking about.
• 38:56
  Let's help,
• 38:56
  let's think it out together.
• 38:58
  Put it at predictableShow.com,
• 38:59
  drop it in one of the comments,
• 39:00
  drop it in the chat.
• 39:01
  Love to talk it out with you.
• 39:02
  It's a lot of fun and you'll have a great community
• 39:04
  of people around you to help you walk through these things.
• 39:07
  These,
• 39:07
  some of these people are really,
• 39:08
  really smart and doing really,
• 39:09
  really well in these markets.
• 39:10
  So make sure to join us over there at predictableShow.com.
• 39:13
  I have a couple of markets that I kinda like,
• 39:15
  and I wanna tell you about it
• 39:16
  next.
• 39:27
  Welcome to,
• 39:28
  here's what I kinda like,
• 39:30
  which you look,
• 39:31
  I,
• 39:31
  a lot of the stuff I tell you about,
• 39:33
  I spend hours and hours and hours in front of spreadsheets and,
• 39:36
  uh,
• 39:36
  trying to figure out
• 39:38
  exactly what's gonna happen and trying to predict the future.
• 39:40
  It's not the easiest thing in the world.
• 39:42
  And then sometimes I look at this stuff and I'm like,
• 39:44
  gosh,
• 39:44
  I kinda like that one.
• 39:46
  And that's where we are with these.
• 39:48
  So I've not,
• 39:49
  your,
• 39:49
  your entire savings should not be put into these particular contracts,
• 39:53
  but I do think there's some value here.
• 39:54
  I like both of them,
• 39:55
  uh,
• 39:56
  cause we've got two that I kind of like
• 39:58
  today.
• 39:58
  And let me start with this one.
• 40:00
  The 6th player of the Year.
• 40:02
  Now,
• 40:02
  what is the 6th player of the Year?
• 40:04
  It's the 6th Man of the Year,
• 40:07
  OK,
• 40:07
  except it's the WNBA version.
• 40:09
  Before we get into this,
• 40:10
  scroll down a little bit.
• 40:11
  Show me these names if you could,
• 40:12
  Adam.
• 40:13
  Uh,
• 40:13
  uh,
• 40:14
  these,
• 40:14
  these are the people who are up for it.
• 40:16
  Um,
• 40:17
  A Z Fudd.
• 40:19
  Cameron Brink,
• 40:21
  Flow J Johnson,
• 40:24
  Dewana Bonner.
• 40:26
  There is a very funny segment about that from the
• 40:28
  Stu and Dave program from a couple of days ago.
• 40:31
  When I first discovered Dewana Bonner as a person,
• 40:34
  uh,
• 40:35
  Satu Sabali.
• 40:38
  Uh,
• 40:40
  Chennady Carter,
• 40:42
  and of course,
• 40:43
  my favorite,
• 40:44
  Bainja Laney Hamilton.
• 40:46
  OK,
• 40:46
  I don't know who any of these people are.
• 40:47
  So that is how much evidence and,
• 40:49
  and information I have about the WNBA.
• 40:51
  It's incredibly small,
• 40:52
  but one thing I do know,
• 40:54
  one thing I do know about the WNBA.
• 40:57
  The WNBA is filled with a lot of people
• 41:00
  who do not like Sophie Cunningham right now.
• 41:03
  Sophie Cunningham,
• 41:04
  if you don't know,
• 41:05
  you probably know her from the memes.
• 41:06
  She's the one with the finger with the finger,
• 41:09
  or no,
• 41:09
  it was a point.
• 41:09
  It was a point.
• 41:11
  I love the Sophie Cunningham.
• 41:13
  She's very,
• 41:13
  very cool.
• 41:14
  I agree with her on many of the issues she talks about.
• 41:17
  The WNBA does not.
• 41:19
  And I don't frankly know if Sophie Cunningham is the best
• 41:24
  person to win this award.
• 41:26
  She might be the greatest basketball player of all time,
• 41:29
  male or female.
• 41:31
  I think she's a good player.
• 41:32
  I love what she does on the court,
• 41:33
  uh,
• 41:34
  she defends her teammates,
• 41:35
  uh,
• 41:36
  she speaks her mind.
• 41:37
  I think that's great.
• 41:38
  That being said,
• 41:39
  I can't possibly imagine they're going to give this woman an award after this year.
• 41:44
  I just can't believe it.
• 41:46
  They are doing everything they can to try to sink her
• 41:49
  at every corner because she said she didn't think,
• 41:52
  uh,
• 41:52
  men should be in women's locker rooms.
• 41:56
  Crazy thought.
• 41:58
  Give me that graph one more time.
• 41:59
  Go to the top here.
• 42:00
  Sophie Cunningham currently at 10%.
• 42:03
  Now,
• 42:03
  it is
• 42:04
  down from where I was,
• 42:05
  uh,
• 42:05
  initially buying this.
• 42:06
  We did talk about it with our,
• 42:08
  uh,
• 42:08
  subscribers.
• 42:09
  Uh,
• 42:10
  bring me to a month here,
• 42:11
  see what we can see as far as detail goes.
• 42:13
  Um,
• 42:13
  if you go to Sophie Cunningham,
• 42:15
  who is the blue line on this chart,
• 42:17
  you'll see back in,
• 42:17
  uh,
• 42:18
  mid-July,
• 42:18
  she was up at almost like 40%.
• 42:20
  This is meme time,
• 42:21
  by the way,
• 42:21
  I think.
• 42:22
  When she,
• 42:23
  when the meme was hitting,
• 42:24
  she got up to 39%.
• 42:26
  And I actually thought there,
• 42:27
  should I go with no on Sophie Cunningham because,
• 42:30
  yeah,
• 42:30
  no,
• 42:30
  there's just the hype and people are into her right now.
• 42:33
  Maybe the hype is too high,
• 42:34
  maybe she's not that good of a player,
• 42:35
  never really bothered to research it,
• 42:37
  unfortunately.
• 42:38
  Uh,
• 42:38
  and then it dropped down to a level where it was sticking around 16%,
• 42:41
  15,
• 42:42
  16% through the,
• 42:43
  you know,
• 42:43
  you see through here,
• 42:44
  through the 20s and,
• 42:45
  uh,
• 42:46
  you know,
• 42:46
  bouncing back and forth between 10 and 20%.
• 42:48
  I think I bought it at,
• 42:49
  uh,
• 42:50
  no,
• 42:50
  at like 18% or 16%,
• 42:53
  uh,
• 42:53
  and it is now down to 10%.
• 42:55
  So,
• 42:55
  Um,
• 42:56
  that's good.
• 42:57
  Basically I bought no at,
• 42:59
  I should say it the right way,
• 43:00
  no at 82,
• 43:01
  and no,
• 43:02
  the no position is now 90,
• 43:04
  um,
• 43:04
  but I just don't buy it.
• 43:05
  I,
• 43:05
  I frankly just think the politics of that league,
• 43:07
  there's no way the people voting for this award are going to give this award to her
• 43:12
  because they will punish her instead of giving her this award.
• 43:15
  So that is what I kind of like.
• 43:18
  And I want to give you one more I kind of like in the basketball world,
• 43:20
  which is
• 43:21
  Steph,
• 43:22
  Steph Curry's next team.
• 43:23
  We did very,
• 43:24
  very well on the LeBron James back and forth,
• 43:26
  uh,
• 43:26
  over the past,
• 43:27
  uh,
• 43:28
  few months,
• 43:28
  especially whether he would retire or not.
• 43:30
  That was at a very,
• 43:31
  at an all-in position
• 43:32
  on that particular market.
• 43:33
  I don't have that position on this.
• 43:35
  It's just a vibe more than anything else,
• 43:36
  I guess,
• 43:37
  and what I've read.
• 43:39
  Steph Curry feels like he's gonna be in Golden State till the end of his career.
• 43:41
  And right now,
• 43:43
  you can see,
• 43:43
  will he be on the next team?
• 43:44
  Well,
• 43:45
  he's,
• 43:45
  uh,
• 43:45
  he's with a team now.
• 43:46
  He's signed with this team.
• 43:48
  Uh,
• 43:48
  and will he stay with Golden State or retiring?
• 43:50
  Again,
• 43:51
  this has come up a little bit from,
• 43:53
  a little,
• 43:53
  uh,
• 43:54
  a little bit from where I,
• 43:55
  I bought it.
• 43:56
  There was hype about Boston potentially trading for him.
• 43:58
  You see,
• 43:58
  this is basically 0 for the entire year.
• 44:01
  Uh,
• 44:01
  the,
• 44:01
  the bumps are from a rumor that Boston might try to trade for him.
• 44:05
  Uh,
• 44:05
  give me the,
• 44:06
  you know,
• 44:06
  you can just follow that line.
• 44:07
  It was,
• 44:07
  it got as high as 12.2% for Boston
• 44:10
  and as low as what,
• 44:11
  80,
• 44:12
  85% or so for Steph Curry.
• 44:14
  I think I wanna say I bought some at 86 or 87.
• 44:18
  Uh,
• 44:18
  it's currently at 91%.
• 44:20
  Uh,
• 44:21
  this will pay off
• 44:23
  in,
• 44:26
  Is it late September,
• 44:27
  early October is it,
• 44:28
  it's October,
• 44:28
  I think.
• 44:29
  I think it pays off in October when the season starts.
• 44:31
  And I don't think
• 44:32
  there's very high likelihood at all that Steph
• 44:36
  Curry leaves the Golden State Warriors this year.
• 44:39
  I don't have a huge position on it because I don't know,
• 44:41
  I'm not in his head and I haven't done massive,
• 44:43
  you know,
• 44:43
  research or have any,
• 44:44
  any real reason other than the fact that,
• 44:46
  uh,
• 44:46
  I don't know.
• 44:47
  Maybe,
• 44:47
  maybe I just know ball,
• 44:48
  you know,
• 44:49
  that's me.
• 44:50
  You can see,
• 44:51
  you don't get this physique without knowing ball.
• 44:53
  OK,
• 44:53
  so those are the two that I like.
• 44:54
  Sophie Cunningham to not be the 6th
• 44:56
  person
• 44:57
  of the year,
• 44:58
  and
• 44:59
  why can't it be 6th Woman of the Year?
• 45:01
  Why?
• 45:01
  Why does it have to be 6th Person of the Year?
• 45:03
  I wonder why.
• 45:04
  Uh,
• 45:04
  that league,
• 45:05
  the league that's calling it the 6th Person of the Year is gonna give her this award.
• 45:09
  I just,
• 45:09
  I can't
• 45:10
  imagine it.
• 45:11
  I hope I'm wrong cause I like Sylvia Cunningham.
• 45:13
  I want her to win.
• 45:13
  And then Steph Curry to remain on the Golden State Warriors.
• 45:16
  You've got about,
• 45:17
  right now,
• 45:17
  it's a little bit less than when I got it,
• 45:19
  but it was about a 20% on Sophie,
• 45:20
  uh,
• 45:20
  Cunningham to,
• 45:21
  uh,
• 45:21
  as far as profit goes,
• 45:23
  and about a 15%,
• 45:24
  uh,
• 45:25
  profit on Steph Curry.
• 45:27
  So there's a couple of more positions that I kind of like.
• 45:29
  I want to remind you one more time,
• 45:30
  go to predictableShow.com,
• 45:31
  put your email address in.
• 45:32
  If you do so,
• 45:34
  you will receive
• 45:35
  the predictable constitution.
• 45:37
  This will give you great rules of the road and to watch
• 45:40
  your trading and make sure you're doing all the right things.
• 45:43
  And if you'd like to be a predictable
• 45:45
  subscriber,
• 45:45
  you get the uh live stream,
• 45:47
  you get the great community,
• 45:48
  you get back and forth with me all the time.
• 45:49
  I'm on there all the time.
• 45:50
  I did a live chat last week.
• 45:52
  Also gonna do a live stream for predictable premium members only.
• 45:55
  If you go there,
• 45:56
  we're going to do an album release party,
• 45:58
  basically,
• 45:58
  an album release party of all of my picks.
• 46:00
  There's a lot of them.
• 46:02
  I should make you guess how many
• 46:03
  I actually have cause it's an,
• 46:04
  it's,
• 46:05
  it's an uncomfortable amount.
• 46:06
  When I actually saw it.
• 46:07
  But
• 46:08
  you can go there,
• 46:08
  you get every single pick.
• 46:09
  So if you wanna look at it and you say,
• 46:10
  hey,
• 46:10
  I like these 5,
• 46:11
  I'm gonna stick with these 5.
• 46:13
  Feel free
• 46:14
  to join me in those picks or go the opposite way if you think I'm a moron.
• 46:17
  That's fine too.
• 46:18
  It's all available at predictableShow.com.
• 46:20
  We would love to join you.
• 46:21
  We would love you
• 46:22
  to join in the profits with us.
• 46:24
  We would love you
• 46:25
  to help make this unpredictable world a little bit more predictable.
• 46:29
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 46:31
  We will see you next time.