Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Placements Data | Cattle Market Talk April 24th, 2026

Transcript

Placements Data | Cattle Market Talk April 24th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Cattle Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: Your weekly breakdown of Capital Market Fundamentals, key news, and the insights shaping the industry.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves a potential risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: How's it going, Nick?
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: Good, Mike.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's talk a little bit about cattle market.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to start with the futures here.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to be talking about a few futures charts.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, pretty decent day here, the last couple trading sessions and cattle.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: What can you tell me about the reversal we had yesterday?
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Really came storming back and then had a pretty good day today on the futures as well, Nick.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: What can you tell me about a little bit of the sell-off correction we had there for a while and then rally the last two days in the cattle market?
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I think that the market just got a little bit more enthusiastic about some cash activity this week.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we're gonna be we're so far we're a couple bucks down from where we were last week in the cash market, and they've got some cattle procured.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: I think they as of this morning uh they had 23,000 head around them, so they actually got some cattle bought in lower money, and I think that actually sparked the futures a little bit.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: Um certainly uh got a little bit worser basis today with the market rebounding a bit, actually trading above cash um on the futures market.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: So um I guess that's kind of what sparked it.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_02: I I do wonder if if you know we're we're we should be moving into a time here where boxes start to increase.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: Haven't really seen it much yet, but um I think the market's uh seeing that seasonality to it in the future here too.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_02: How'd the kill look this week?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: Was it still pretty light?
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_02: Really light, really light.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, the cow cow harvest was as well too.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: Interestingly, the dairy cow harvest is uh is higher than last year.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: Um we're actually expanding the dairy herd um up about 250,000 head above a year ago, and the and the dairy cow harvest is actually holding the overall cow harvest a little higher than a year ago.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: What can you tell me about last week?
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: We had a catal Catalon feed report, and I know you want to dive in this a little bit.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go a little bit deeper.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about the placements numbers specifically, just wrap up some of our talk on the Catalon feed report last week.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, if you want to pull that chart up there, Cade.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we've been looking at, you know, the last four months.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_02: Well, well, when you we looked at March, um, April, May, and June, you know, the placement data was suggesting that uh, you know, that we are gonna have eight, nine percent fewer cattle.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_02: That'd be the last slide in that thing there, Cade.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we're gonna have about eight, nine percent fewer cattle for those months.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_02: And now after this report, um that's only showing down less than four percent for the month of July.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_02: So so even though placements, you know, were a little bit friendly in that report because they were less than the the estimated average, um, you know, we're showing we're showing we're gaining some cattle back relative to last year uh in the in the middle of summer.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_02: Now, well, you know, obviously that does not account for any carryover cattle in there, and there's a little noise in this data because we dumped the last three weight cat classes together, and obviously we're making big cattle really big today, too.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: So there's gonna be a little noise in all that data, but you know, seasonally we increase the cattle harvest from here going forward, and and and we're we're narrowing the gap between last year and and uh and this year is as far as the Fed supply.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: What are some stories in the cattle market here going forward you think that's gonna move the markets around?
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, the the biggest thing we gotta watch for is what what boxes are capable of here.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_02: Um feels like we've hit some resistance in the past, around 400 bucks, uh, and and we and we're off of that again here from the spring, you know, down in the 380s here.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_02: Uh last year we saw a 20% increase in choice beef from March to you know to kind of its summer high.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_02: And uh, you know, if if we would see that again, you know, choice beef was was four around 400 bucks this past March.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_02: So if we would gain 20% on that, that's four eight four hundred and eighty dollar choice beef.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know that the market is capable of that.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we're gonna find out, but you know, the last few weeks in futures, they I think they certainly think there's a possibility that these boxes can move higher yet.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_02: Uh they don't have that kind of premium priced in yet.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um but but demand is gonna be the story here because supply we know is is down from last year, and and you know it's very hard to predict demand.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_02: But if if demand does pick up seasonally here like it normally does, that's gonna be the the story builder.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Cutout main story builder there, still running on some low numbers.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't appear that's gonna change anytime soon.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: And especially when I look at the Western Corn Belt, uh if you look at Tornado Alley, there it's really dry in the United States.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: So this is not conducive of really rebuilding a herd anytime soon from that part of the world, is it?
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: Certainly not, certainly not.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_02: I mean you you do hear a lot of stories, you know, of of heifers getting purchased to to be bred, and then and then um you know, anecdotally, we've talked to some folks in the west that have kept extra heifers back um in this market environment.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, as dry as what what we are over there in the Western Corn Belt and you know, towards the southwest, it you know, a lot of those guys are already talking about not being able to keep them heifers, and and and if that market kind of dwindles because uh because of a lot of bred heifers on the market and no grass, you know, those heifers may eventually find their way to packing plants.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_02: So uh I definitely think the grass situation is as we know is a big part of when we start or or not start the expansionary phase, and and so far I think we're starting it with less grass than what we need to start it.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: And one of the other big stories here recently, uh Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona amid the ongoing biosecurity questions.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: There was a lot of talk and a lot of risk off the last probably week heading into this uh this visit to the border, supposedly.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: And uh it seemed like the last two days we really bottomed this market when it was kind of announced that she wasn't gonna fulfill that trip here this week.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: So uh USDA's cancellation keeps focus on the unresolved new world screwworm risks, obviously, uh, which remain the primary barrier to reopening the southern border here with cattle trade.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: So something to keep an eye on going forward.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't seem like that's uh gonna be the case anytime soon, uh, this week at least.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: Any other questions on the cattle market?
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Any other talk talking points you really want to cover today?
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: No, I think that kind of wraps it up, Mike.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_02: I think that kind of wraps it up.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, if we don't we don't open that border, you know, the market knows that uh we're you know we're not gonna have the Mexican feeders or fats coming in and and that's still that's you know a little friendly.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: But uh when they do open that, um, you know, it's gonna send the feeder cattle index lower because obviously the quality of the feeders coming from there, uh not to mention the numbers would would decrease the index.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_02: So uh that's you know that's to be to be seen, I guess, what what happens there.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: But canceling that meeting, we know we don't think it's gonna be anytime soon.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thanks for tuning in today.
• 7:35
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• 7:42
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