Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Markets Move, Farmers Decide

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Markets Move, Farmers Decide · AG Bull

0:09
SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everyone.
0:10
SPEAKER_01: Tom Grossofi, Eggbull Media, Eggbull Trading.
0:13
SPEAKER_01: The month of February is over.
0:14
SPEAKER_01: That's two down.
0:16
SPEAKER_01: We have 10 more to go.
0:17
SPEAKER_01: 2026 is just zipping by, and we're glad you're here to join us.
0:21
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of joining us, you still have time.
0:24
SPEAKER_01: Get out there, get signed up March 5th from 8 a.m.
0:28
SPEAKER_01: to 2 p.m.
0:29
SPEAKER_01: We're heading out to the Farm Ford conference.
0:31
SPEAKER_01: Jim and myself will be there.
0:33
SPEAKER_01: We're talking markets, policy, trade, soil health, and more.
0:37
SPEAKER_01: They have a big lineup of speakers.
0:39
SPEAKER_01: And I betcha, you know how Jim rates meetings by the food.
0:42
SPEAKER_01: Let's hope the food's good because he always says, ah, that food was good.
0:46
SPEAKER_01: I'm sure it'll be better and good will be great.
0:48
SPEAKER_01: All right.
0:49
SPEAKER_01: If you're enjoying what we're doing here, head over to premium content, ww.agbull.com,$25 a month,$250 annually.
0:56
SPEAKER_01: You notice I'm not putting many podcasts out.
0:58
SPEAKER_01: They're all private.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: This podcast and a few others are still public, but pretty much everything's behind the paywall.
1:04
SPEAKER_01: Agbull.com premium content.
1:06
SPEAKER_01: We'd love to see you there.
1:07
SPEAKER_01: With that, let's get this show started.
1:10
SPEAKER_01: We have an action-packed show.
1:12
SPEAKER_01: Jim sent his notes.
1:13
SPEAKER_01: Lindsay loaded up graphics.
1:15
SPEAKER_01: Producer Joe's in the background, but I know who you all here came to see.
1:18
SPEAKER_01: And of course, thanks for watching.
1:20
SPEAKER_01: Thanks for listening to a friend.
1:21
SPEAKER_01: And I'll see you on the other side.
2:06
SPEAKER_00: I'd say almost 100%.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: Got my energy back, raring to go with you.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: Traveling Wednesday, Thursday, it's Drom Farms.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: Monday night, I'll be in Washington, D.C.
2:17
SPEAKER_00: to talk with uh Texas AM students.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: They do that twice a year.
2:21
SPEAKER_00: I applaud Texas AM for that.
2:24
SPEAKER_00: They bring in a series of speakers each year.
2:26
SPEAKER_00: And I'm very happy, Tommy, because I bought my first hybrid car, a Santa Fe Hyundai.
2:34
SPEAKER_00: So I can't wait to get in it this weekend.
2:36
SPEAKER_01: That's awesome, Jim.
2:37
SPEAKER_01: That's both fuel and uh battery, right?
2:39
SPEAKER_00: Battery, yeah.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: And it on Eco, I can't believe it, but I'll test it out.
2:44
SPEAKER_00: If I continued on Eco with both gas and battery, it said I can go to 585 miles on one tank of gas.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: Can you believe that?
2:55
SPEAKER_01: Uh that's a lot.
2:56
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'll test it.
2:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
2:58
SPEAKER_01: All right.
2:59
SPEAKER_01: I like to hear that.
3:00
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk markets, Jim, because uh yes, we had a dynamic day, and you and I and Joe were looking at the charts for the show.
3:07
SPEAKER_01: Let's bring in the star, the charts.
3:09
SPEAKER_01: We we have something interesting happening here.
3:11
SPEAKER_01: I want to start with soybeans.
3:13
SPEAKER_01: I'll let you add some color.
3:15
SPEAKER_01: This is a daily chart, folks, and the uh green line is the hundred-day moving average in 200.
3:21
SPEAKER_01: Jim, do you see what I see?
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, it's it's getting if we can if we can best it, you know what I mean?
3:27
SPEAKER_00: That's good.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: Then you're going, it would project probably.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't see an over chart, but uh twelve dollars.
3:33
SPEAKER_01: Uh, what contract is this?
3:35
SPEAKER_01: This is May.
3:36
SPEAKER_01: We have rolled from March to May this week, yeah.
3:39
SPEAKER_00: And see, they're building in, Tommy.
3:41
SPEAKER_00: The market traders are building in some of this what pro perceived demand once we get the final announcement from EPA relative to the renewable fuel stove uh uh renewable fuel program, the RINs, the SRE reallocations.
3:58
SPEAKER_00: We had some update, we'll talk about that later on, but they're building that in.
4:01
SPEAKER_01: And here you go.
4:02
SPEAKER_01: You led me into that real nice.
4:04
SPEAKER_01: This is soybean oil, Mr.
4:06
SPEAKER_01: Jim.
4:06
SPEAKER_01: This is a daily chart, too.
4:07
SPEAKER_01: Every chart we show you is gonna be daily again.
4:09
SPEAKER_01: Green line 100-day moving average, 200.
4:12
SPEAKER_01: Talk about soybean oil.
4:13
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that well, that's again, we're gonna crush for oil if the sustainable aviation fuel and our 45Z program goes the way the soybean sector wants it to.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: And it depends on uh foreign feedstocks, uh, whether or not they'll be eligible, or if they will limit it to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
4:33
SPEAKER_00: And we may not even have enough soybean processing capacity to fulfill.
4:38
SPEAKER_00: So this is why this demand is going to continue if we get some final uh when we get the final rules and regulations, not only from EPA, but USDA, relative to how they're gonna base the credits.
4:50
SPEAKER_01: And we're crushing a lot of beans domestically.
4:52
SPEAKER_01: Here's the hero of the month.
4:53
SPEAKER_01: Well, we had a couple of heroes.
4:55
SPEAKER_01: This is wheat, something we haven't talked about in forever.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: I want to show you a weekly of wheat.
5:01
SPEAKER_01: This is a daily, just show you how much wheat has sold off, folks.
5:06
SPEAKER_01: We haven't talked about wheat in forever, but look at that.
5:09
SPEAKER_01: This is a weekly going all the way back to 2020, uh, May of 23.
5:15
SPEAKER_01: We're crossing the green line, we crossed the red line, the 200-day moving average in wheat.
5:22
SPEAKER_01: Talk about that, Jim.
5:22
SPEAKER_00: What did we there was a series I wrote about it this morning on my updates that's on the on the site?
5:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but a combination of India, they're gonna have some of the hottest temperatures ever coming up in India.
5:36
SPEAKER_00: Uh, the uh Trump's comments on Iran also got into the marketplace.
5:40
SPEAKER_00: And uh I saw Reuters had an item that had helped uh fuel the uh you know wheat futures prices, and of course, the focus on U.S.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: wheat as it comes out of the winter you know, dormancy that that's a focus.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, rarely do you lead off with wheat in the commodity complex, but we are.
5:59
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
5:59
SPEAKER_01: Well, you led into that comment with uh Iran, and this is a crude oil chart.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: What do you know over there?
6:05
SPEAKER_00: That it goes up and down, it's just very volatile.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Uh Trump came out today and flat out said he doesn't like the tone of the current negotiations.
6:16
SPEAKER_00: They're going to continue to talk beginning early next week.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: So it's getting near the Trump timeline in which he said Iran's going to have to commit one way or the other.
6:27
SPEAKER_00: And Trump said he doesn't want to have a conflict with them, but if he has to, he will.
6:33
SPEAKER_01: All right.
6:33
SPEAKER_01: With that, interesting week.
6:35
SPEAKER_01: Uh Commodity Classic.
6:36
SPEAKER_01: I was not there, but uh, we have some color, and you'll have some comments about Commodity Classic in Rollins.
6:42
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but yeah, there's both uh in front of the public and behind the scenes.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: But to be fair to uh Brooke Rollins, she she introduced what they call one farmer, one file modernization.
6:56
SPEAKER_00: Well, what's that mean?
6:58
SPEAKER_00: It they want to create a single streamlined digital record for farmers that works across USDA agencies.
7:06
SPEAKER_00: They've needed that for decades.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: So it'll reduce repetitive paperwork and improve delivery.
7:12
SPEAKER_00: So they're in the process.
7:14
SPEAKER_00: You wonder why that hasn't happened before.
7:16
SPEAKER_00: Now, some farm groups said, okay, we like that, but we don't want that to put more onus on producers to have to fulfill uh USDA's farmer role.
7:25
SPEAKER_00: But it's a step in the right direct direction on that program.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: And she also talked about their broader priorities.
7:34
SPEAKER_00: Uh, she emphasized USDA's commitment to cutting red tape, improving customer service, and strengthening support for agriculture.
7:42
SPEAKER_00: Now, she took some heat uh for for kind of defending some of the actions that they've taken relative to the trade issues.
7:50
SPEAKER_00: Farmers still leery about additionality, although I think they're beginning to see some, but also on the input cost side, I think she was too optimistic on the input cost, and she she heard some negative reaction publicly.
8:04
SPEAKER_00: But the big story, I think, was behind the scenes, Tommy.
8:08
SPEAKER_01: What happened there, Jim?
8:09
SPEAKER_00: Well, producers met with her.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: Weed, sorghum, I know corn did, and uh uh uh the tone initially was like, you know, we hear you, but you've got to you've got to support the farm bill in a stronger fashion.
8:26
SPEAKER_00: They she heard about the pressure from the lower commodity prices, higher financing cost, rising input prices, all what we've talked about.
8:35
SPEAKER_00: And Jed Bauer, he's he's the grower president of the National Corn Growers Association, said we're now seven years removed from the last farm bill, and much of the information policymakers are working with is outdated with our cost structure, and that has fundamentally changed.
8:53
SPEAKER_00: So she heard it.
8:54
SPEAKER_00: Uh, the trade certainty is becoming a top priority.
8:57
SPEAKER_00: Farmers told them the the commodity leaders that they said they signaled concern about the ongoing trade disputes and what other additional actions Trump administration may take relative to their new tools, Tommy, that they're using and may use as a result of the Supreme Court ruling against the initial approach that Trump took.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: So behind the scenes export markets, they said remain priority, essential, but they don't like all this ups and downs on the negotiations and the changes and and things like that.
9:32
SPEAKER_00: So that that's where we're at.
9:34
SPEAKER_00: But uh I will tell you here's what they should have talked about.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: Now, here's my perspective, okay?
9:41
SPEAKER_00: Capitol Hill, as we'll get into later, next Monday at five o'clock Eastern Time is going to mark up the Farm Bill 2.0.
9:51
SPEAKER_00: Now, that's a budget neutral farm bill that does nothing else to improve the farmer safety net.
9:57
SPEAKER_00: Now, did the commodity groups talk about that?
9:59
SPEAKER_00: I don't think so.
10:00
SPEAKER_00: They have not changed the borrowing authority for the commodity credit corporation in 39 years.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: Wow.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: How did I say that?
10:09
SPEAKER_00: It currently has a borrowing authority of$30 billion.
10:14
SPEAKER_00: Now, it's insane to me that as a country, we're at the point where USDA is supposed to repeatedly help out agriculture, but to do it with virtually no borrowing authority because most of that money is already accounted for for the Commodity Credit Corporation.
10:31
SPEAKER_00: So they need to creatively rely upon an out-of-cycle replenishment from appropriators.
10:38
SPEAKER_00: You know, now some are always gonna say, you know, this wouldn't have happened if President Trump wasn't so aggressive on trade.
10:45
SPEAKER_00: But you expect Congress to negotiate trade agreements, both the Biden administration wasn't able to.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: So the whole system is broken.
10:55
SPEAKER_00: That's my bottom line, Tommy.
10:56
SPEAKER_00: And things are gonna have to change, and that includes the farm bill.
11:00
SPEAKER_00: That's my take.
11:01
SPEAKER_01: We'll talk about that a little bit more.
11:03
SPEAKER_01: Food prices.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we saw uh a mixture of of that.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: Let me go back to my notes.
11:10
SPEAKER_00: I think we have we had a mixture you're relative to uh food prices in restaurants are are are still higher.
11:17
SPEAKER_00: Uh you can see uh uh you know uh consumers are giving a pushback, some downward in the in the supermarket price.
11:27
SPEAKER_00: You had a difference of uh lower prices uh significantly for eggs.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we almost have too many eggs now supply.
11:35
SPEAKER_00: You talk about a turnaround, beef prices are showing some downturn, at least in in the in in the supermarket price, Tommy.
11:44
SPEAKER_00: So uh kind of a mixed uh pattern.
11:47
SPEAKER_00: Overall, still sticky inflation relative to you know food, uh, you know, food prices, and that'll remain so because of the of the beef you know situation, coffee, etc.
11:59
SPEAKER_00: We're not out of the woods on food inflation.
12:01
SPEAKER_00: That's the bottom line.
12:02
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
12:03
SPEAKER_01: Moving on, wholesale inflation.
12:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we saw that came out this morning.
12:08
SPEAKER_00: The bottom line there, it was above expectations, not significantly above, but on core prices, uh, still above.
12:16
SPEAKER_00: What's it mean?
12:17
SPEAKER_00: That raises the odds, I think almost close to 100% that in March at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, F O M C, they will keep interest rates where they have now.
12:28
SPEAKER_00: So we're not gonna get a cut in March.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: That's what the report showed today.
12:32
SPEAKER_00: Now we have a jobs report coming out, I think, March the 3rd, in early March.
12:38
SPEAKER_00: And that'll also dictate what we all what's gonna happen, Tommy, on on interest rates.
12:44
SPEAKER_00: But I would I would signal high odds that they're gonna uh hold them steady.
12:48
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and usually the jobs report comes out on the first Friday of the month, and that would be March 6th.
12:54
SPEAKER_01: Friday, March 6th.
12:55
SPEAKER_00: Yes, March 6th, yeah.
12:56
SPEAKER_01: Let's move along.
12:57
SPEAKER_01: Biofuels update, sir.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: Well, we had all sorts of items from Reuters saying we're gonna maybe get maybe they'll split the difference.
13:05
SPEAKER_00: EPA by they, I mean uh EPA.
13:07
SPEAKER_00: We need we need certainty, we don't need rumors.
13:11
SPEAKER_00: And by the end of March, everyone in this town is saying we're going to get the official announcement from the EPA relative to the 26 and 27 renewable fuel standard program on the mandated levels.
13:26
SPEAKER_00: I think the market uh has built in fairly robust levels for the uh biodiesel renewable diesel, and that's what was in those charts that that uh that you presented.
13:37
SPEAKER_00: Now, if we go below that, then we'll have a sell-off.
13:39
SPEAKER_00: That's how important that is.
13:41
SPEAKER_00: I haven't seen an announcement potential from EPA in a long time that's gonna have market significance when we get it.
13:48
SPEAKER_00: And of course, the the reins of how they're going to do those, how they're going to do the reallocation.
13:54
SPEAKER_00: There's some saying that the larger refiners are gonna have to pick up at least 50 percent of the SRE.
14:01
SPEAKER_00: So uh that's your latest development.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: It it's it's over at the Office of Management and Budget.
14:07
SPEAKER_00: So it's left EPA.
14:09
SPEAKER_00: By saying it, I mean these proposed, all the issues relative to the mandated levels.
14:15
SPEAKER_00: We call them RVOs, the RINs, the uh uh reallocations, all that's now that's over at the Office of Management and Budget.
14:24
SPEAKER_00: And usually once it gets there, and it went there earlier this week, it's anywhere from two to four weeks before we get the announcement.
14:32
SPEAKER_01: All right.
14:33
SPEAKER_01: Well, this ties into what we're talking about earlier: wheat rally, a significant wheat rally.
14:39
SPEAKER_00: Yes, we had a combination of things.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: We had uh the India, as I said, really hot temperatures coming in early next week.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: We had the uh Iran uh uh statements from uh President Trump that got into the marketplace, and we have the uh focus on the U.S.
14:59
SPEAKER_00: wheat sector as the crop will be soon coming out of dormancy.
15:03
SPEAKER_00: So you know, wheat's been a leader here.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: That's nice to see, Jim.
15:07
SPEAKER_01: All right, it's harvest in Brazil, and I hear a mile-long line for Brazil soybeans.
15:12
SPEAKER_01: What are you hearing, Jim?
15:13
SPEAKER_00: Well, that but but but the the the short-term one is in certain states they've had too much rain, too much rain, and it's gonna lead to some quality problems.
15:22
SPEAKER_00: So that again is another reason why we've had a positive tone in the soybean market.
15:30
SPEAKER_00: So again, that's something usually South America, it's just we have new records and things like that.
15:35
SPEAKER_00: But it and this comes after recent rains to help stabilize the crop in Rio Grande to Seoul, but a new dry forecast there is reviving debate about Brazil's crop size, plus the too much rain in other states.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: So, bottom line, some industry forecast of the Brazilian soybean crop are being reduced.
15:56
SPEAKER_00: That's why the market has an overall positive tone, Tommy.
16:00
SPEAKER_01: I like it.
16:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, bird flu.
16:02
SPEAKER_01: I don't like this one.
16:03
SPEAKER_01: Never, never good.
16:05
SPEAKER_00: What's that?
16:06
SPEAKER_01: Bird flu.
16:07
SPEAKER_00: We had a big in in uh in Pennsylvania this week.
16:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that that's I mean, it was it was big, so that it just raises its head every uh every other week or so, and it's just not going to go away.
16:20
SPEAKER_00: That's your bottom line.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: It's just Pennsylvania was hit big time, and they announced some emergency operations, etc.
16:29
SPEAKER_00: And you just hope it doesn't go in that format to other states, but it could.
16:35
SPEAKER_01: All right, NWS and Rowland's again on screwworm, Jim.
16:39
SPEAKER_00: She was in at the Commodity Classic.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: She said publicly that uh she is not going to open the border anytime soon.
16:45
SPEAKER_00: And the American Farm Bureau also came out and said, please don't open that border, it's just too risky right now.
16:53
SPEAKER_00: We don't need any possibility of the New World Screwworm entering the United States.
17:00
SPEAKER_00: I I will tell you that Rollins is getting mixed uh opinions from some of her own staff, that some want that border open because they feel that there are uh extra security precautions that will be taken, but she doesn't want to open it up.
17:19
SPEAKER_00: I don't know whether it's just because of uh being too cautious or what the Farm Bureau has said, you don't want to take that risk.
17:26
SPEAKER_00: But bottom line, basis uh what Rollins said, that border is not gonna open anytime soon.
17:33
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's do Stay of the Union, then we'll take a little break for station identification, get a sip of something.
17:40
SPEAKER_01: And uh I did not watch the Stay of the Union.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: I did.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: All right, and I thought and it went almost two hours.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: Come on.
17:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I did time.
17:50
SPEAKER_00: It bested the prior uh lengthy lengthiest one by Clinton.
17:55
SPEAKER_00: But overall, I think Trump did a very good job.
17:59
SPEAKER_00: He didn't yell, he didn't yell.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: Some of even his naysayers liked the first hour, and they thought he got mean in quotes, the second hour.
18:09
SPEAKER_00: No, he got political, and he noticed some of the policy issues, such as having identification to vote, and he asked uh the the the Republicans in the uh audience raised and clapped their hands, and then it showed the Democrats uh you know sitting down.
18:26
SPEAKER_00: And you saw that under a number of issues that that the president brought up.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: That just showed the visceral differences that we have in the two political parties, at least in Washington.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: But I thought from a speech perspective, he ended it very good on an uplifting thing that were America is still the the leading country on entrepreneurship, the world needs uh America.
18:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh so it made you feel good.
18:54
SPEAKER_00: It was a little Reagan-esque in in that perspective.
18:57
SPEAKER_00: I thought one of the most glaring things that he did not include was China.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: I really you oh usually, especially with him in March 31st to April 2nd, he's gonna be over in China, and uh not to even mention it, that that uh that told me that his his people were encouraging him to kind of stay focused on domestic issues, the inflation, interest rates, the border security, etc.
19:28
SPEAKER_00: And that's what he did.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: So he was more disciplined than he usually is in a speech like that.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: But I I gave it a very good mark overall.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: Uh, it just was long, of course, but it wasn't as policy wonky as a lot of these speeches are.
19:44
SPEAKER_00: But uh I think he hit many of the uh of the right levers that he wanted to do, and we're gonna see that as they camp as the Republicans campaign going into the midterm elections in November.
19:55
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
19:56
SPEAKER_01: Well, as we get halfway through, Jim's already given us our word of the day.
20:00
SPEAKER_01: Visceral.
20:01
SPEAKER_01: Do you dare know how to spell that?
20:02
SPEAKER_01: I had to Google it.
20:03
SPEAKER_00: A-I-S-C-E-R-A-L.
20:05
SPEAKER_01: Doggone it.
20:06
SPEAKER_01: I try to stump you on a Friday.
20:08
SPEAKER_01: I'm over here Googling what visceral is.
20:11
SPEAKER_01: Every week you usually say a word that's not in my vocabulary.
20:16
SPEAKER_01: Growing up in Griffith, Indiana, uh in blue collar country, we didn't use the word visceral.
20:21
SPEAKER_00: Well, I come from southern Illinois, and every once in a while I still say zinc for zinc.
20:26
SPEAKER_01: So we're creatures a little up.
20:29
SPEAKER_01: I'm just learning how to pronounce Weezymeyer, and uh we'll continue show.
20:34
SPEAKER_01: All right, folks, I'd really love if you if you're enjoying what we're doing here at AgBO, Media Agbol Trading, www.agbowl.com,$25 a month,$250 annually.
20:42
SPEAKER_01: Of course, I gotta give our friends a plug.
20:44
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna be over at Farm Ford this week, next week, Jim and I, March 5th, 8 a.m.
20:49
SPEAKER_01: to 2.
20:50
SPEAKER_01: We just sent in our PowerPoints, but that's you know, we Jim and I, we don't need PowerPoints to go give a speech.
20:55
SPEAKER_01: Uh sometimes we just have them up there to reference a few things, but we'll be up there.
20:59
SPEAKER_01: Markets, policy, trade, soil health, and more.
21:02
SPEAKER_01: Come catch us on March 5th.
21:03
SPEAKER_01: I believe they still have a few spots left.
21:05
SPEAKER_01: With that, back to the show, and let's see where we were.
21:08
SPEAKER_01: We did the State of the Union, okay?
21:11
SPEAKER_01: Farm Bill 2.0.
21:12
SPEAKER_01: Jim, you touched on this earlier.
21:13
SPEAKER_01: Continue.
21:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Monday at five o'clock.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: Now that's pretty late to start a markup session, but that tells you they want to hit the ground running early next week because it was supposed to be this week.
21:24
SPEAKER_00: And you know, we had some bad weather, although we didn't get near in DC.
21:29
SPEAKER_00: I didn't, we didn't hardly even got snow at all.
21:32
SPEAKER_00: So I think that they panicked on that one.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: We tend to panic with a half an inch of snow anyway.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: But what to watch out for?
21:39
SPEAKER_00: And the Senate's gonna, the Senate Ag Committee has indicated there, they also want to mark up this Farm Bill 2.0 in an expedited fashion, at least that was their term.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: So you're gonna have to watch the tone that the Democrats have in the markup because GT Thompson, the House Ag Committee Chairman, he's trying to convince the public that this is a bipartisan bill.
22:03
SPEAKER_00: The Democrats don't agree with that.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: So listen to see as we go through.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: It'll be a clear markup vehicle, which I like the old approach to doing a bill, like offering amendments, voting on them, etc.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: So it may take two or three days to get through this, Tommy.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: And listen to the tone of Democrats.
22:25
SPEAKER_00: Because the reason I say that is because even if it gets out of the House Ag Committee, will it be able to get on a vote on the House floor?
22:36
SPEAKER_00: Because around 40 Republicans typically vote against a Farm Bill for whatever reason.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: That's why you need Democratic votes.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: So listen to Angie Craig.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: She's the ranking member on the House Agriculture Committee, by the way, is running for a Senate seat in Minnesota.
22:53
SPEAKER_00: So that's the bottom line.
22:55
SPEAKER_00: Now there are some important aspects in the Farm Bill 2.0.
23:00
SPEAKER_00: At least the House version has a proposition 12 uh dealing with uh California's proposition 12, kind of would neuter it outside of California.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: If California wants to do it fine, but they're not going to dictate to other states.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: That's basically what the House language says.
23:16
SPEAKER_00: Some some farm credit provisions are are in there and some other aspects.
23:20
SPEAKER_00: But I think I want to see the whether or not there's going to be enough votes on the House floor.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: If not, they'll just extend the remaining portions of the farm bill later this year.
23:32
SPEAKER_00: So they'll try again next year after the after the November elections, Tommy.
23:37
SPEAKER_01: All right.
23:38
SPEAKER_01: Well, I hear if you're a real estate agent, you could maybe represent this property.
23:43
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, yeah, USDA.
23:46
SPEAKER_00: Decades and decades.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I can't believe I can't tell you how many times when I worked in DC, that I walked over from K Street all the way down to USDA and went into the executive office building.
23:59
SPEAKER_00: In this picture, it's the white, it's near the top.
24:02
SPEAKER_00: That's where Rollins is at us.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: That's where Rollins' office is at.
24:07
SPEAKER_00: And then the lower part where you see these uh cutouts, that's the South building.
24:12
SPEAKER_00: And that holds most of USD employees, but it's only 15% being utilized, Tommy.
24:19
SPEAKER_00: Wow.
24:19
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's uh so that's why uh Secretary Rollins and Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said that they're basically handing it over to the General Services Administration who eventually offer it for sale.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is part of USDA's significant moving away from Washington, D.C.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: We're going to get, and they're most of these employees.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: Well, some will go in another building around D.C.
24:47
SPEAKER_00: or either in Virginia or Maryland, but others will go to the five uh uh hubs.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: Now, there's this is controversial, but uh I don't see the Trump administration backing off on this approach.
25:00
SPEAKER_00: But I I do want to emphasize look at the history of the South building there for for decades, 90 plus years.
25:08
SPEAKER_00: You know, it's just I remember when I first came to town in the mid-70s, I went to the basement floor 0054.
25:15
SPEAKER_00: I'll never forget.
25:16
SPEAKER_00: That's where the NAS crop reports used to be released.
25:19
SPEAKER_01: Is that where they lock you up?
25:21
SPEAKER_00: That's where they locked us up, and we had a line that we couldn't, there was a clock there.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: We couldn't cross that line until three o'clock hit, and then we had a telephone line that was open so we could we could dictate stories of of the of the crop report.
25:36
SPEAKER_00: Then they eventually moved it to, I think it's on the fifth floor of the South building right now.
25:41
SPEAKER_00: So that that's gonna have to be changed.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: They're gonna have to find another spot.
25:45
SPEAKER_00: I don't know whether it'll be in an executive office building where Rollins is at or not.
25:50
SPEAKER_00: So uh that'll that'll maintain.
25:53
SPEAKER_00: But I I my history goes back a long time walking the halls of USDA, etc.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: But it's it there's$1.6 billion of needed repairs for that building.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: That's another reason why they want to they want to uh uh unleash it to the public.
26:11
SPEAKER_00: And you can imagine that's a whole block long.
26:14
SPEAKER_00: It's prime real estate.
26:16
SPEAKER_01: So I maybe uh Google or one of these hot, hot, hot AI.
26:21
SPEAKER_01: Maybe they make it a damn data center and calm out, calm down all the house moms who are all pissed off about everything.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: They could, but I think the hotel industry, you're right by them all there, right by the metro.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: I mean, USDA has a metro stop there, so it's prime property.
26:36
SPEAKER_01: I want to ask you something.
26:38
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
26:38
SPEAKER_01: I was always told when people who write stories about USDA reports, they go on the lockup with a bullish scenario, a bearish scenario, and a neutral scenario, and they get it all written up for either and then change it real quick and then release it.
26:52
SPEAKER_01: Is that true, Jim?
26:53
SPEAKER_00: I don't think so.
26:54
SPEAKER_01: So the second you hear it, then you write it.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you mean you mean USDA analyst?
27:00
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, like say you're going to lockup, and you don't we don't know if it's going to be bullish beans or negative beans, but you write both stories and then you just change a word or two and then you could release it quickly.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: Well, I know USDA analyst, but they might they have they may have different scenarios, but uh as they see the numbers, but they have a certain amount of time to in order to put their their their summary copy together.
27:26
SPEAKER_00: But this thing is put together in the wee hours of the morning, and no nobody knows the uh actual number until that uh uh you know number is released inside.
27:37
SPEAKER_00: Now, the private industry, yes, they would have different scenarios if you're talking about the private industry.
27:42
SPEAKER_00: That's what I meant.
27:42
SPEAKER_00: Yes, but the private industry, yeah, I would say that they do, but boy, you can have one.
27:48
SPEAKER_00: Uh you better be careful even on that, because there could be one country change that surprises you that in an overall number that could really make you you you know you look silly.
28:00
SPEAKER_00: I like reasoned analysis that's thorough analysis rather than I'd rather be later than sooner when it comes to analysis of key reports.
28:08
SPEAKER_01: Well, ladies and gentlemen, we have breaking news for you.
28:11
SPEAKER_01: Take a good look at Mr.
28:12
SPEAKER_01: Jim because we're gonna have a half off sale here.
28:15
SPEAKER_01: I understand.
28:16
SPEAKER_01: Jim, folks, if you're out there, take a picture of Jim.
28:19
SPEAKER_01: In a few months, he's not gonna look like that.
28:21
SPEAKER_01: What's going on, brother?
28:23
SPEAKER_00: Maybe by the end of the year, okay.
28:25
SPEAKER_00: I met with my doctor and he said, Okay, it's time to lose weight.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: So I'm beginning Monday, I'm going to get a delivery of Wagovi.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: They're the pill.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: I would not take the shots.
28:37
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
28:37
SPEAKER_00: And so I'm going to have an intermittent update on how it's uh affecting me, both from the side effects, potential side effects, and whether or not it's going to be successful, because that's going to help my uh, I need to lose 40 pounds at least.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: And it's going to help my legs, it's going to help my heart, the inflammation, some of these pills.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: So didn't want to do it, but I thought my doctor said let's try it.
29:02
SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to do it.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: So I'll give you some updates of how it's impacting my uh food intake, what what uh others I've heard.
29:10
SPEAKER_00: I have more than a few friends who were taking the shot version, and they're saying, and I've seen every one of them, Tommy, has reduced more than a few pounds, and it has changed their food intake, the the type of foods they have.
29:24
SPEAKER_00: And I also subscribe to a food service called Factor that can model you basis on what you need when you take one of these GLP1 pills or are shot.
29:35
SPEAKER_00: So I'm entering the fray.
29:37
SPEAKER_00: I'm entering the fray.
29:38
SPEAKER_01: That sounds good.
29:38
SPEAKER_01: I'll meet you there because my doctor suggested I do the same.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: And I actually have the shot form.
29:43
SPEAKER_01: And my wife just in the last few months, she loves poking me with that needle and watching me squirm.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: So oh, so you're taking it.
29:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
29:51
SPEAKER_01: Oh, wow.
29:51
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and it definitely it helps tremendously.
29:54
SPEAKER_01: And of course, they tell you to cut down on alcohol, which I you and I we're gonna have a drink together because as people know, I've never met you.
30:01
SPEAKER_01: I don't think you're real, I think you're like an AI generated thing out there.
30:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna see if it if it impacts my old fashioned, my desire for old fashioned that it's gonna happen as soon as Monday when I go to Tri Prateria Alberto, one of my favorite restaurants on Capitol Hill where I'll meet with the Texas AM students.
30:21
SPEAKER_00: But I'm gonna have one old-fashioned because they know how to make it.
30:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, talk about those Texas and AM students.
30:29
SPEAKER_01: That's a great story, Jim.
30:30
SPEAKER_00: It is both Joe Outlaw, Dr.
30:32
SPEAKER_00: Joe Outlaw, and Bart Fisher for two times a year brings their honor students.
30:37
SPEAKER_00: And they've done it, I think I've done it 10 years, where they'll have different people come in.
30:42
SPEAKER_00: David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report will come in when he's available.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: So it's our give back.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: But look at the the the pluses for Texas AM.
30:53
SPEAKER_00: I cannot speak more highly of them for doing it to the students, and they have more than a few former students within the government complex or in associations in town and things like that.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: So we tell them the good part of working in Washington, D.C., both from a government perspective, from an industry perspective, and they ask us questions.
31:16
SPEAKER_00: So it's it's always always makes me feel good because at least the students in at Texas AM, they give me a positive attitude that our country is still, despite all the ups and downs, we still have some good uh quote kids coming out of the school system, at least the land grant universities.
31:36
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I want to touch on that a little bit.
31:39
SPEAKER_01: Our very own Jed Sidwell, who you recently met.
31:41
SPEAKER_01: Yes, he met with uh Trevor Johnson, and we had they they did their own podcast on the Ag Bull channel that's out there, folks on Spotify and Apple.
31:48
SPEAKER_01: But they're both 23-year-old, 23-year-olds, college educated, love showing cattle, raising cattle, and they did a podcast together.
31:57
SPEAKER_01: And after I watched, I didn't get involved, but I just watched them film it.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: And I went upstairs.
32:02
SPEAKER_01: First thing I said to Gina was, you know what, agriculture in America is gonna be okay if we have two powerhouses like that doing it.
32:09
SPEAKER_01: Now, we may not have as many farmers because as you know, Jim, farmers, farms are getting bigger, and you see these headlines that farms are closing.
32:17
SPEAKER_01: But I I gotta say something here.
32:19
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna pop off a little bit.
32:21
SPEAKER_01: You can't be 80 years old and then finally give the reins to your 60-year-old who wants to then let his 35-year-old farm.
32:27
SPEAKER_01: And you know, you gotta give up the farm a little earlier.
32:30
SPEAKER_01: Now, easy for me to say I don't own tens of millions of dollars of farmland.
32:34
SPEAKER_01: But the hardest thing, the hiccup, and we'll talk about this at our meeting in central Illinois, is the wealth created through landownership that a young farmer just can't get that wealth, correct, Jim?
32:44
SPEAKER_01: Talk about that.
32:44
SPEAKER_00: No, they cannot.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: That's why the uh grandparents and the parents have to help out.
32:49
SPEAKER_00: And I I totally agree with your aspect that you have to go through certain cycles in in markets.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: You learn more on bear markets than bull markets, you have to go through some chart activity, and that takes a while.
33:04
SPEAKER_00: And to look at the emotionality of uh marketing as a as opposed to crop production, the revolutionary changes, some of which we're good, they're gonna discuss at the Strom Farm event, and some of the newer aspects of dealing with the business of agriculture and production, agriculture.
33:25
SPEAKER_00: And I'm telling you, the once you go through some of these cycles of policy, markets, trade policy, you need the experience.
33:33
SPEAKER_00: And I agree totally with you, you need at least 10 years of good training at the farmer level.
33:39
SPEAKER_00: And I and that's also in DC level.
33:41
SPEAKER_00: When I when I used to train uh new uh reporters, uh it took about a minimum three years and probably 10 years to really get the confidence factor in them to see recurring events and what happened in the marketplace from markets, policy, uh, and other aspects.
34:01
SPEAKER_00: So, but but again, to go back to these students.
34:04
SPEAKER_00: I mean, now Bart Fisher, this is Bart Fisher's class.
34:08
SPEAKER_00: When they go through what they want to do in life and things like that, it's just makes me feel so good that they're on the right path.
34:16
SPEAKER_00: They ask us questions and really good questions.
34:20
SPEAKER_00: So, again, I always come back refreshed of saying I'm confident in the future of American agriculture.
34:27
SPEAKER_01: Well, I like that, and I'm sure that'll be part of your little monologue at the end.
34:31
SPEAKER_01: I want to ask you something personally, because we have a little shorter show today, and I know you have some strong opinions about this.
34:36
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna ask you a question, and it's gonna make for a great short.
34:40
SPEAKER_01: What makes a great reporter in in particular a great ag reporter?
34:46
SPEAKER_00: A great ag reporter is you don't want to use reporting in agriculture as a stepping stone to go to another enterprise.
34:54
SPEAKER_00: So, in other words, you have to you should have longevity of wanting to stay in the business of agriculture.
35:00
SPEAKER_00: I think too often it's it's used as a stepping stone.
35:04
SPEAKER_00: Number two, I think as a reporter, at least in Washington, and this is what I was helped out by only my first job at Don Ag Service, but more uh when I worked for ProFarmer for so many years, they taught me markets.
35:18
SPEAKER_00: So when you're in Washington as a reporter, and also know markets, you know, what basis is and how how policy can affect either widen basis or narrow basis, and and you see the impact on marketplace, that helps you as a reporter.
35:38
SPEAKER_00: And the the the the major thing I looked I looked at and still do on any reporter is they should be as fair as possible, balanced as much as possible.
35:49
SPEAKER_00: But three, have passion.
35:51
SPEAKER_00: If you have passion, you go way up in my my judgment as a person and and as a reporter.
35:58
SPEAKER_01: Well done, sir.
35:59
SPEAKER_01: Off the cuff, Jim Weesmeyer.
36:01
SPEAKER_01: We're down to the last three.
36:02
SPEAKER_01: USDA asked for comments on crop estimates and other ag data.
36:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'm gonna say at the Strom family farm event.
36:10
SPEAKER_00: I know a more than a few farmers at that event.
36:13
SPEAKER_00: They've over the years they've had a finger pointing at USDA.
36:17
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes I don't blame them.
36:18
SPEAKER_00: The reports are up and down.
36:20
SPEAKER_00: We saw it this past year relative to the corn acres, etc.
36:24
SPEAKER_00: Now USDA has asked for comments on crop estimates and other ag data.
36:30
SPEAKER_00: NASA's opening up feedback channels tied to crop production, yield surveys, and their broader USDA statistical programs.
36:39
SPEAKER_00: So their monthly crop reports, acreage and yield estimates, state and national uh yield production estimates.
36:46
SPEAKER_00: So the notice that USDA puts out that's saying comments are going to be accepted through March the 16th this year.
36:53
SPEAKER_00: The USDA wants to know what stakeholders, farmers and industry people, the survey burden on farmers, because you hear this a lot.
37:00
SPEAKER_00: Farmers saying, you know, this it's taken so long to fill out these surveys, data accuracy and methodology.
37:08
SPEAKER_00: Will will they and should they use artificial intelligence more?
37:11
SPEAKER_00: The answer to me is yes.
37:13
SPEAKER_00: Whether questions should be revised or expanded, and what's the usefulness of the final estimates?
37:19
SPEAKER_00: So this is good stuff.
37:21
SPEAKER_00: So don't complain, uh, farmers.
37:24
SPEAKER_00: This is your time to actually give USDA the feedback on crop acreage, commodity stocks, livestock inventories, land values, input usage.
37:34
SPEAKER_00: Now's the time to give feedback because USDA will only be good as the information they get.
37:41
SPEAKER_01: Well said, my friend.
37:42
SPEAKER_01: Well said.
37:42
SPEAKER_01: I got some good news for people.
37:44
SPEAKER_01: February has ended.
37:45
SPEAKER_01: I think that's good news.
37:47
SPEAKER_01: Crop insurance levels are set.
37:49
SPEAKER_01: Don't choke on your drink there, Jim, on live TV.
37:52
SPEAKER_01: Crop insurance are set.
37:54
SPEAKER_01: I I have a little bit of a yeah, I can't, I think you can hear it in my voice.
37:57
SPEAKER_01: Like when I see the board close up, when I get to text my clients today and the Ag Bull Premium clients and say corn, beans, and wheat are on the highs.
38:06
SPEAKER_01: I didn't tell them about bean oil, you know.
38:08
SPEAKER_01: They my producers don't go sell bean oil, but that plays into canola, which is both good for United States and Canada.
38:14
SPEAKER_01: You know, with our friend uh Sean up there, how how much pressure the canola farmers are under.
38:19
SPEAKER_01: There's some really great things going on.
38:21
SPEAKER_01: So February has ended, crop insurance levels are set.
38:24
SPEAKER_01: I want to thank Karen Braun for this tweet.
38:26
SPEAKER_01: We give her credit.
38:27
SPEAKER_01: Karen's with Zayner Ag Hedge, and as you know, she used to be with Reuters.
38:31
SPEAKER_01: Let's look at these numbers.
38:32
SPEAKER_01: Corn numbers for 2026, official, almost official within a penny, 462, down 2% from last year.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: Soybean levels 1109, up 5% from last year.
38:45
SPEAKER_01: That would probably explain this rotation out of wheat into beans.
38:50
SPEAKER_01: Uh maybe not as much corn, maybe more beans, but yet the bean market on fire, November beans.
38:56
SPEAKER_01: I'll look it up, Jim.
38:57
SPEAKER_01: I'll let you talk a little color on it.
38:58
SPEAKER_01: I'll look up where uh November beans close today.
39:01
SPEAKER_01: Stage is yours.
39:02
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, this now we have enough data for the crop and excellent crop insurance agents throughout the United States can help uh their their clients, farmers, kind of do what type of programs that an individual producer should go through.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: So we needed this data.
39:20
SPEAKER_00: And I agree with you.
39:21
SPEAKER_00: This is probably one of the reasons why at least the markets and the industry analysts are tilting toward uh more soybean acres planted this year.
39:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh we'll know initially in the prospective plantings report at the end of March, and and fewer uh corn corn uh uh acres.
39:39
SPEAKER_00: But this is information that we needed.
39:41
SPEAKER_00: Now we have it.
39:42
SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
39:43
SPEAKER_01: That report is on March 31st, and that's a big one, folks.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: We'll be doing a little series on that.
39:50
SPEAKER_01: Okay, we need to end the show, and I hate to do that, but we took it to 41 minutes, and I love visiting with you.
39:57
SPEAKER_01: And uh, I can't wait to meet with you next week.
40:00
SPEAKER_01: Jim, take us home only like you can.
40:02
SPEAKER_00: Okay, well, we've we've listed some of the positives, but I'm gonna mention one more.
40:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna turn a negative into a positive.
40:09
SPEAKER_00: The last few days I've seen a number of uh ag industry publications get a little somber relative to the coming summit between Xi Jinping and President Trump, March 31 in Beijing, and April the 2nd.
40:24
SPEAKER_00: Uh Trump is not really focused on this yet.
40:27
SPEAKER_00: And the South China Martin Post had a thing where China's looking at options to have more leverage on the United States.
40:35
SPEAKER_00: I think Trump, if when he goes over there, wants deliverables, and he knows soybeans is a big is a big factor in the US-China relationship.
40:46
SPEAKER_00: So I think we're gonna get some good news eventually out of the summit.
40:50
SPEAKER_00: All the stuff you're hearing today, it's just noise.
40:54
SPEAKER_00: I'm giving you the signal that I think uh Trump is not gonna take his eye off the soybean lever.
41:00
SPEAKER_00: China knows that.
41:01
SPEAKER_00: Behind the scenes, what does China want?
41:03
SPEAKER_00: That's what we're trying to find out.
41:05
SPEAKER_00: Overall, we're getting at levels to where the charts are gonna have to see whether or not farmers can get through certain levels.
41:13
SPEAKER_00: If not, then we've seen short-term highs.
41:15
SPEAKER_00: But uh we're only we're gonna be into early March.
41:19
SPEAKER_00: We have a lot of planning, planning anxieties to go through.
41:24
SPEAKER_00: We are in a far better spot this coming into March than we were coming into February.
41:30
SPEAKER_00: Bottom line, that's a good thing.
41:32
SPEAKER_01: Mr.
41:32
SPEAKER_01: Jim Wiesemeyer, I will see you next week in Peoria, Illinois at the uh farm summit.
41:37
SPEAKER_01: That's gonna be uh a good show.
41:39
SPEAKER_01: And uh we're leaving them with some real optimism in February.
41:44
SPEAKER_01: Good stuff, my friend.
41:45
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
41:45
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
41:46
SPEAKER_00: See you.