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Macro Risks vs Crypto📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Macro risk are now on the return and it is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: something that we want to break down today because this
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: starts to invade into the crypto market full stop. So
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: get ready, guys. You've probably heard me mention Uphold before,
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• 0:40
  Speaker 1: more and get started. And we're going to break down
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: a lot today. So we're gonna get some charts for you. Evan,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: how are you.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: I'm doing well living life. You know, market's a little
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: bit scary, but you know you got to stay confident,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: you gotta stay optimistics.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well you guys haven't. If you haven't followed or
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: subscribe to Evan's channel, I want you to do that
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: right now. Go over to Evan Aldo on YouTube. We'll
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: leave a link down the description where you can get
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to him. Check his channel out, because it's a fantastic
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: does a great job on breaking down a lot of
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the chart business, which we're going to do today. I
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: want to lead off with this tweet right here that
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: really gets into what Trump is saying that he's going
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to make a decision soon on whether or not to
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: launch a massive attack. So again, we've got all of
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: these what could be looming issues in the Middle East
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: that continue to push on the macro side of where
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: the market is pushing. And right now you've got Bitcoin
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: coming off of what was sixty five now trending back
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: down to sixty three. While all of this is happening,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: you also have Iran, which is now rejecting a US
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: cease fire deal. This, of course is going to take
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: energy pricing to its roof. Who knows where we're going
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: to be in the next three or four days, Evan,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I want to kind of start off first with the
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: bitcoin chart. Okay, and there's there's still been indications out there,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and I don't know where you stand that we could
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: see a seventy K this month. Is that still in
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the cards for July?
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: I think so. I mean, we do have one more
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: week left of July. July is historically a bullish month,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: and your charts are pretty good. You've still got the
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: momentum here. Despite a little bit of fear that we're
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: seeing with the news and all that, you have a
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: bullish divergence in the two week which is a very
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: rare bear sign. Actually, the last time we saw this
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: was you know, you guessed at December of twenty twenty
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: two at the exact bottom there. So you know, it
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: looks similar in a lot of ways if you compare
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: these two situations here. So I would stay very optimistic
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: for that reason, well maybe not optimistic, cautiously optimistic, let's say,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: for that reason right now. And you know, if you
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: just look at the pattern what we've been seeing here,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: you just look at all these you know, you get
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: these little drawbacks, everybody is scared, and then you keep
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: going up. So it's kind of like all these and
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: until proven otherwise, I think we should be able to
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: keep going. If you look at your daily a lot
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: of times you like to play with your daily two
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: hundred daily two hundred SMA right here. By time you
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: hit that by the end of the month, early August,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: maybe around seventy K. So I'm still pretty optimistic that
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: we can hit seventy K here. I don't see any
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: major reasonably we won't. Now you always need about invalidation point.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: I think if we do do something like this and
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: probably lose sixty one k come down to these areas,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: then I would get more pessimistic and more a little
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: bit more bearish that we would potentially retest the lows
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: er take out these lows, But until then I would
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: go with the reverse head and shoulders. We should be
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: able to break upward.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: If you compare this right now to eth Bitcoin versus
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: eth right now, how would you look at this? Because
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Eth could start out performing this pretty heavily. I mean,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: it's already started up recently. So can it hold Yeah?
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: I think it definitely can. And the reason why is
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: they're seeing this huge momentum shift on your three week
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: right here money flow coming up. It looks really good,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I would say comparably, it looks kind of similar to
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: some of these areas back here in twenty twenty. Kind
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: of these areas. See how your money flow is starting
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: to come up a lot of good things, you know
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: back there, even our you'll be a little bit better
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: this time. So yeah, Eth versus Bitcoin looks good. I
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: think you know, you're seeing a little bit of consolidation here,
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: which is normal as long as you kind of hold
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: these lows from you know, June, I think you should
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: be able to break upward and keep going here on
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Eth versus bigcoin. Will definitely have to see what happens.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: But what's your year end target on ethereum right now?
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, even though you got ted pillows, he's kind
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: of hitting on it right here. You could fill the
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: market kind of waiting maybe for a trigger clarityac could
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: be that if we do, in fact get a little
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: silent majority coming to the sixty votes that we need
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: over there. But do you think with or without clarity,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: where would Eth be?
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: With?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: And then give me kind of without theory for end
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: of year?
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: So yeah, for end of the year, my optimists or
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: my best you know guess for Bitcoin is around ninety k,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: which that would equate for ethereum to probably at least
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: around twenty five hundred. I think twenty seven to three
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: thousand could be decent. Probably twenty seven thousand if you
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: or twenty seven hundred excuse me, if you had to
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: really make me put a number on it. As of
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: right now, our technical target if you can break you know,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: upward from this area, break above you know, two thousand,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: let's say, would be yeah, twenty four hundred these areas,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: so I think you at least can get there. I
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: think you should be able to take out these April
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: high as if everything gets well. So twenty seven hundred
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: is what I'm looking for.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping cal she has it at thirty two hundred four.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: End of year, I think it would look something like this.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: You would see a nice pump up to those technical targets,
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: probably twenty four hundred. Then you consolidate September I think
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: is normally kind of a bearish month. You'd probably come
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: back to two thousand, scare people away, and then I
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: think then you would jump up to hopefully twenty eight
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: hundred to three thousand and a year here, so you know,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: there's going to be selling the news as there always is.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: But no, I don't think it's a major cell signal
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: where you should sell your etheroryum. Absolutely yeah, I think
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: it's good in the long run.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So Evan, let's talk a little bit about BNR and
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: micro strategy. I've got a clip here in reference to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: sailor sentiment, because this is something that we've been talking
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: about on the show for a couple of weeks now,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: for a while really since the last time we interviewed
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Strategy when they came on. And let me play this
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: clip for you and then I'll get your opinion. Take
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: There is no long term success story, success story for
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: Strategy that doesn't involve change, either generating yield on BTC,
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: becoming a bank, or diversifying. You're buying bitco, buying coin base, buying,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: buying it whatever, right, because the problem with Strategy is
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: it's insanely you know, not diversified to a crazy degree.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: Look at what happened when they sold, you know, twenty
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: five bitcoin, and I honestly hope Strategy buys no more.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: I would I would be glad if they sold. But
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: having this behemoth sitting there essentially being a Satoshi Nakamoto,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: but we can identify the guy right, and people can pruss,
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: could put pressure on him and take potshots at him,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: none of which is possible with this other guy out there,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: I think is a horrible idea. I don't like what
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: Strategy is doing. What it's done, what its growth trajectory is,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: it's not good for strategy, and it's even worse for
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: the rest of the ecosystem.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: All right, So on a couple of points there, evan
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: key thing. They're not diversified. We've kind of pointed that
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: out for quite some time, even though Sailor would probably
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: argue that is that he's diversified in all these other
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: private credit opportunities out there. So that's their play. But
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the real strategy I think that they're lacking is what
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: has been going on with bitmine, and bitmin of course
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: has a whole slew of opportunities here in terms of
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: just yeath yields as much as the investment into an
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: eth ecosystem, which is where I think that you know,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: analyst was trying to point out, when you look at
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: BM and R versus micro strategy right now, which one
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: would you.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Buy BM and R right now? One hundred percent because
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: of the momentum shifts. And the number one thing here
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: with BM and R is it's down ninety two percent
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: from all you know, from the heighs of last year.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: It's kind of all or nothing. I don't think I
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: want this below like twelve bucks. I would set of
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: stop loss at like low twelves high elevans, and that's it,
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. That's the main thing there.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: And if you look at bmin R versus micro strategy
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: right here, this is a major kind of momentum shift
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: in some of these high time frames. To look at
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: this jump that we've seen recently, your money flow looks good.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: So I would ride the wave. I would definitely ride
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: the wave. Try to ride the momentum shift. It makes
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of sense here. So yeah, I mean micro strategy,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: it's kind of rejecting from this area right here. I
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: don't think I really want this below one hundred dollars.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I had some of it. I converted it back to
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: bitcoin a few weeks ago, and so far it's spiled
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: against bitcoin overall in that amount of time. So if
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: this can break back about above one hundred, I'd get
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: more optimistic. But right now it's it's a no for me.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: But BMINR looks good right now.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know, would you just buy eth over BM
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: and R. Would it be bmin R as a hedge?
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: I think that, you know, I have more a lot
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: more eth than BM and R. I think you know,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: it would make sense to have like eighty percent twenty
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: percent BM and R things of that nature. I am
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: a little bit afraid, a little bit weary of some
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: of these treasury companies. I do think they kind of
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: feel like buying all coins in twenty twenty two. There's
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: no guarantee even if he does well, there's no guarantee
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: it's going to outperform me eath because of human error
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: in things of that nature. I mean, his average buypoint
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: is what high three thousands me exactly, but not very
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: good in that aspect, you know.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: All right, So Evan, I want to compare big excuse me,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I want to compare robin Hood and coinbase here for
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: a second in terms of an investment strategy. But I
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: want to go to a clib This is Brian Armstrong
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: who basically as an apology tour. If you guys didn't
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: catch this, this is where Brian kind of went out
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: on Twitter X and said, hey, I just don't care
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: about meme coins. He got the meme coin community up
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: and roar, and I think that was the big issue
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: right here, and it kind of backfired on him. And
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: then of course Blad of course was playing with this.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So you see these two CEOs going tit for tat.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Here's Brian's apology. Take a look.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: You know it was good.
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: It was a good wake up call for meman in
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: this case, I kind of fucked it up. To be honest,
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: I completely misread what one community was reading into my stuff.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. Maybe I'm a boomer man. I
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: have to put a lot of my time.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: I'm just like putting on a suit and tie going
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: to DC trying to get the Clarity Act passed. But yeah,
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: if I can ask you guys, like, what do you
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: think coinbay should be doing better? Be totally you know,
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: be totally honest, Like, what's the thing you think we
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: could have we could be doing better going forward?
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: The community stuff, community support, I love it.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: Okay, that's that's good stuff.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I mean I think you guys are spot on, all right.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So I like that Brian is reaching out. Is it
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: a little too late? I don't know. Has maybe robin
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Hood chain stole the thunder Evan. When you look at
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: robin Hood versus Coinbase as a publicly traded company, which
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: one do I buy right now?
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: I would pick Coinbase, And the reason why is I
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: think we may see a momentum shift. Here you're seeing
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: a red hikin' ashi candle in the two week and
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: similar here. Look at once you got into twenty twenty three,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: robin Hood bled quite a bit against Coinbase. So I
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: think this may come down. And you say may see
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: a momentum shift, I think that it's kind of all
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the hype's already been factored in with Robinhood robin Hood chain,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: and I think it's going to be time for Coinbase
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: to see a bit of a momentum shift. Here see
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: some more strength. So right now for the next year
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: or so, I do think there's a good shot a
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: Coinbase could out perform Robinhood.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Short term, Coinbase is the winner there. For Evan, I'm
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: kind of on the other shoe in terms of Robinhood.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know that their hype is over yet, and
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I think Vlad has got something up his sleeve that
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: may surprise the industry. Clarity could be the window that
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: would allow that to happen. Listen, it's going to be competitive.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: If you guys are into either one of those stocks,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: maybe just kind of split it down the middle. Let's
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: go into another situation that's brewing right now. And this,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: of course is what's happening within our situation in Iran,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: because this starts to put a lot of macro pressure
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: on the industry, and it's crypto is typically the one
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: that gets hit first. So let me play this clip
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: for you, and then I want to kind of compare
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: as we potentially see raidhikes, take a look for risk assets.
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: It means that macro is now back in charge. With
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: Brent above one hundred dollars per barrel, do we kind
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: of see a return to this conflict trading pattern whereby
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: risk gets pared down into the weekends. That's what I'm
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: looking out for. I think also, you know, during the conflict,
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: we saw tech actors an offset for some of the
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: energy anks. But clearly that now that's not happening Alphabet
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: that was a disappointment. This week, we've got more hyperscalers
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: due on deck, so it does look like risks are
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: potentially tilted to downside for stocks. I think the problem
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: for the market is we're you know, not in the
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: We're in the FED regime where forward guidance has been
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: paired back dramatically, and that's what the market's really contending
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: with next week is going to be a lot more
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: of a high volvent than it potentially would have been.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I'd say so. The point being is that a lot
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: ofhead winds here puts more pressure on the FED. You
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: look at pilot market, FED rate hike has exploded likelihood.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: There are people saying we could see a quarter basis
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: point even as early as next week. So that's a possibility.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: This is the December rate hike probability, which is way
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: up if you go to October. That meeting kind of
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: sets it. Around September is around sixty percent, October around
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: sixty nine. But even July this is the one that
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of concerned with at around twenty three percent.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Do you feel that we could see a rate hike
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: next week?
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: I don't think so, unless something's very different.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: You know, you have like energy prices, it can be
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: very different.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Well, well, I mean.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I think that's just transitory.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think I think oil is going
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: to slowly and gradually probably go up over the next
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: you know, two three four years. But I don't think
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: it's it's going to be like two thousand and forty,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: two thousand and seven, where it goes up, but it's
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: not a complete, you know, nightmare, and it's not at
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: a pace that you know, ruins everybody. The thing that
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at is the US ten year right now.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: And Trump's been making obviously some major threats, and usually
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: when he does that, he kind of tacos or they
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: start to negotiate more. Almost every time your US tenure
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: gets this high. Look at kind of where we are
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: right now four point seven, usually you were ejacked pretty hard,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: kind of like right there. And that's I think Trump's
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: going to say some things that Okay, now we're negotiating
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: it in and I think it's going to go back
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: and forth like this for a while. So my guess
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: is this comes down and that lessens the odds of
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: a rate hike. And also, since the odds of a
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: rate hike this year are already that high on the
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: betting odds, that's kind of already factored into price to
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: a certain extent. So you need to be yeah, you
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: need more than one rate hike. I think to bring this,
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: you know, to bring this you know, any higher here, I.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Think the quarter would be okay, you think a quarter
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: by end of year would be would be reasonable.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it could be. I would be I think we
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: may just pause. I think with Wash you may just pause,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: especially if you get more better news with negotiations and stuff.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: I think Iran is going to go on for years,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: but I think it's just going to be like you know,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: it quit, yeah, two three years potent, but it's going
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: to be like this, it's just going to be boring,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: just stupid. Yeah, you know, negotiation, it's going to become
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: just less of a news, you know, spectacle in a
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: year or two.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: It's like the market doesn't really pay attention to it.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I would agree with you.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So that's what I think. We'll we'll
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: kind of see there. I think it because I think
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: if you're Trump, you're not gonna you know, you want
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: to do what you can to save yourself for midterms,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: you know, to keep the Senate potentially. I think if
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: you're Trump, you want to do everything you can to
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: get Clarity passed, and you want to do everything you
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: can to get the yields to not shoot up, especially
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: in the tenure, because the view is that banks are
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: going to get hit hard if the yields go up
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: any higher. That's always been the kind of rumor that
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: we saw with Silicon Valley Bank too. We've seen that,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: we learned that the hard way a little bit.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, Well, and with that you also have
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: this issue, which is a lot of insiders that are
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: dumping fastest paces twenty twenty one corporate insiders seventy seven
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: point six billion. Uh. This is the first half of
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, so it's up twenty percent from last
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: year coming in from Bloomberg. When you look at that
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: kind of market activity, Evan, and you consider the S
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred as it is right now, all
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: of the macro headlins, headwinds that are coming, whether you
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: look at the Middle East, you look at the rise
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: of Asia, the constraint that's happening for Mika, And I'm
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: thinking on the crypto side, is this a good thing
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: that maybe the S and P gets less confident and
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: we see some rotation of capital or do you think
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: people are going to go into some other asset classes.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean the thing too that I've looked at
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: for the on the S and P five hundreds, if
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: you look at bigcoin versus S and P five hundred,
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: look at how much we've bled now and that two
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: week is a really important chart to look at. Right here,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: you're getting a green hi Kenashi candle with the same
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: Just look at how similar it is to back here
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two August to December. That bullish the
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: vergen's momentum shifts. So I do think that this may
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: have just bottomed against you know, bigcoin may have bottomed
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: against S and P five hundred, So I can actually
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: that I could see S and P five hundred correcting
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: more potentially, but Bitcoin holding the lows. I think bigcoin
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: a lot of times bottoms before the S and P
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: five hundred. I think you'll see, you know, a bit
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: more of a crush for the S and P five
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: hundred than nastac, but nothing too too bad.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Nothing's too bad. Well, so we've got some titans that
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: are out there kind of disclosing a few things, and
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: that is Google disclosing that they had ninety four billion
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: worth of SpaceX stocks. So you look at SpaceX right now,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: this is one of those stocks that we were very
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: anti on at the IPO level. Is there a by
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: level for you if you look at the SpaceX chart
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: in general, where would you pin it to say that's
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: my buy.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's tough to put an exact number
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: on it. I would say probably it's very likely you're
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: going to test one hundred. I think once you get
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: to around one hundred, it becomes more attractive because that's
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: a big correction from the all time high. That would
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: be a fifty five percent, you know, drop down and
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: about a thirty percent drop from IPO price. So if
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: we look at IPO price, it can go below. I mean,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: I could see a fifty percent drop for IPO price,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: which would put you around seventy five bucks, which I
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: think would be deep value for me. It's more about
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: time because most IPOs go into a bear market for
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: about eight to twelve months after they come out, so
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: that would bring you a lease down to you know,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: it's probably going to be very choppy and very boring
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: for some months and to the end of this year.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: But if you're at seventy five and quarter four, I
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: think it would be a great, great buy, you know,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: anything between seventy five or one hundred.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, how much of a drawdown is that right now?
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: If you pull that, that would be from well from
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: where we are right now, that would be around thirty
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: percent thirty percent drop.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Wow, and that's that's going to hurt a little bit
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: for Google, especially holding ninety four billion setting in there
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: right now. All right, let's go over to Monday, because
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: there's a lot happening on Monday next week. You've got CXMT.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: This is the largest biggest IPO of the year for Asia.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Drops on Monday. When you look at this, because this
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is already being traded within you know, the crypto markets
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: in general. The likelihood just so you guys know, this
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: is the top memboryship maker out there. They raised eight
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: point six billion and list right now on the Shanghai
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: and this is coming up on Monday. So we've done
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit out there. But do you think this
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: is an.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: Opportunity semiconductors, I'm more bearish on probably for the next
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: six to eight months. So based on the fundamentals there,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I think that bigcoin is going to perform semiconductors. I
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: think the AI stuff is going to go into a
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: bit of a crab market bear market for six to
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: eight months. This chart is this chart's interesting. I mean,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: as of right now, I probably wouldn't buy it, but
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: if you see some momentum shifts and you could, you know,
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: hold just where we are, hold six dollars these areas
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: and get you know, kind of a jump here, a
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: momentum shift, the bull dive on some of these timeframes.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: There could be something, but obviously the original price for
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: this is six dollars. Usually these go through a full
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: kind of bubble pop pattern, so high fives would be
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: the next place i'd look.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, early news from them for this company as
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: they inked a five year deal with by Dance, so
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: that's another seven billion with them. Likelihood is when you
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: see those kind of deals come together. I'm assuming we'll
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: probably see other Chinese companies that will start be linking in.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know to what extent that's going to happen
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: in the US or even if we get access here
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: in the US. So that still plays into it. Is there,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: give me one token and one stock that you feel
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: comfortable with to go into for a hold, but doing
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: it before the end.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Of the year. Yeah, okay, So one coin, I think
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: I think it's got to be ETH right now, that
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: would be the main all coin. After Eth, it probably
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: would be Salana, but I would I would say ETH
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: for that. I think there's a good shot of you know,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: being higher at the end of the year than we
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: are now. For an individual stock, I would probably go
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: with Circle. I would pray that they pass clarity, and
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: I think Circle would get a nice jump circles hitting
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: big areas, So I'd bet on Circle for an individual stock.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Take a look at the circle chart real quick, because
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: if Circle does get movement here from clarity, which could
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: be massive if we truly see it, the amount of
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: deals in partnerships that could come for them is pretty significant.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: What does that look like?
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: It looks okay, you know, it looks cautious optimism. You
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: got your green hike and Ashi candle. Here a nice
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: momentum shift in your four day major area around sixty
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: four dollars. We're just bouncing around. To me, we couldn't
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: jump up there and hold it. But as long as
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: we kind of hold fifty eight these lows from July seventeenth,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I think that, you know, the sky's the limit. This
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: thing could double up to one twenty by end a year,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: especially with clarity passing, So there's definitely potential here.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: All right, you guys got it? I want you to
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: jump over to Evanaldo right there on YouTube. Check him out.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: You guys know what to do. Check out Evanaldo over
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. Evan, thanks so much for coming in. We
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: appreciate it.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he was an honor. Paul, great talking to you.
• 22:05
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• 22:07
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• 22:11
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