Latest / Inside Politics / Best of 2024: Will Dutton be tempted by Trump’s ‘war on woke’?

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Best of 2024: Will Dutton be tempted by Trump’s ‘war on woke’? · Inside Politics

• 0:02
  S1: Hi there. I'm Jacqueline Maley, the host of Inside Politics
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  S1: The Age in the Sydney Morning Herald's weekly politics podcast.
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  S1: We're bringing you the best episodes of 2024 before we
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  S1: return in early February for the election year. This episode
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  S1: aired just after Donald J. Trump was elected as America's
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  S1: President for a second time. In it, chief political correspondent
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  S1: David Crowe and Nine's national affairs editor Andrew Probyn delve
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  S1: into what another Trump presidency means for Australia's trade, climate,
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  S1: security and politics. We're bringing this to you today on
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  S1: January 24th. So we're recording this late morning on Thursday,
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  S1: which is important because we now officially have the news
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  S1: that Donald Trump has been elected the next president of
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  S1: the United States. First off, I just want to ask
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  S1: you a bit more about sort of personally, how you
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  S1: guys spent the day the day yesterday what the vibe
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  S1: was in Parliament House in Canberra. Were you talking to people?
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  S1: You know, you were in the sort of centre of
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  S1: politics in Australia. What was the reaction there?
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  S2: Look, I think that, um, the result is cataclysmic on
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  S2: lots of fronts. So I think the broad expectation from
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  S2: I think the majority of politicians, be they coalition or labor,
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  S2: was that it was going to be close and that
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  S2: probably Harris was going to get across the line. Um,
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  S2: but I think we're all now used to the fact
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  S2: that the polls are increasingly unreliable. And this is the
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  S2: case in this instance. So, look, I just didn't know
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  S2: who was going to win. Having been in California a
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  S2: few weeks ago, even that confused me. Democrats state, but
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  S2: there were still people in the shops and and bars
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  S2: and streets who who were really fed up with the
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  S2: state of play in America, both with the crime, the
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  S2: crime and the. The general sense of uncertainty when it
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  S2: comes to cost of living.
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  S1: David, what was your sort of impression as you walked
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  S1: around the halls of Parliament House yesterday?
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  S3: Well, I thought Andrew's got a great word for it. Cataclysmic.
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  S3: But it didn't always feel cataclysmic in Parliament House. In
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  S3: Question Time, for instance, all the politicians were looking at
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  S3: their phones. There was a simple question where Anthony Albanese
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  S3: and Peter Dutton both said the relationship is so strong
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  S3: with the United States, and it will be strong regardless
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  S3: of who wins the election. And they are really hesitating
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  S3: to really talk much about the outcome, even as the
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  S3: results came through and they stared at their phones trying
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  S3: to digest what they could see.
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  S1: Yeah. Let's talk about the implications for Australia now. Anthony
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  S1: Albanese and Peter Dutton have both put out statements publicly
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  S1: congratulating Trump on his victory. Albanese had a conversation briefly
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  S1: with Trump on Thursday morning. But what do you think
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  S1: they were saying privately? What was what was the sort
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  S1: of vibe within the government about how well an Albanese
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  S1: government would get along with the Trump administration.
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  S2: I think the the biggest consideration at the moment is
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  S2: what does it do to the economy? The economy is everything.
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  S2: When you're within six months of an election, especially when
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  S2: a government is so keen on bringing down inflation and
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  S2: enticing the reserve Bank to bring down interest rates. Now,
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  S2: if you have the spectre of a trade war with China,
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  S2: that means Australia gets wrapped up in that almost immediately.
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  S2: Because if a trade war between the US and Washington
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  S2: and Beijing results in China going into a downturn, that
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  S2: means they need less iron ore, less coal, less gas.
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  S2: This is big bucks for Australia. We are sandwiched between
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  S2: being reliant on our security with the United States and
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  S2: then being reliant on China because they are our biggest
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  S2: trading partner. And it's that unhappy space is going to
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  S2: cause a whole lot of discomfort. And it now comes
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  S2: down to powers of persuasion and diplomacy to ensure that
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  S2: the sharpest and nastiest bits of a trade war with
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  S2: China don't hurt us.
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  S1: David, what's your take on that? What are the problem
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  S1: areas under another Trump administration for Australia? And are there
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  S1: some positives as well?
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  S3: It's hard to see any positives right now. Clearly, there
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  S3: is going to be tension between the Albanese government and
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  S3: the Trump administration on tariffs because Trump has a stated
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  S3: plan to impose tariffs. They cause a lot of economic damage,
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  S3: including to Australia. There's the the fact that Donald Trump
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  S3: wants to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement
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  S3: on climate change. That plays havoc with global policies on climate,
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  S3: and then gives rise to the argument inside Australia about
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  S3: why the government is government is imposing costs on industry
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  S3: with an emissions target that Donald Trump is, you know,
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  S3: having no part of. And then there's also the Yorkist
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  S3: defense pact, where there are questions over how much Australia
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  S3: is spending on it and whether we can rely on
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  S3: the United States to honour their side of the defence
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  S3: deal on supplying nuclear propelled submarines. Now, not all of
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  S3: this can really wreak havoc on Anthony Albanese's government and
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  S3: his election campaign before the election. If we look at
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  S3: the timeline, there's a lot that we'll be hearing from
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  S3: Donald Trump between now and January 20th, which is Inauguration Day.
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  S3: But let's say he goes forward with tariffs straight away.
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  S3: Then you've got that window between January to whenever the
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  S3: the Australian election date is where you're being buffeted by
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  S3: Trump all the time while fighting a domestic campaign. And
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  S3: that's going to be pretty wild.
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  S2: On Aukus, though, I think, Jackie, it's important to remember
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  S2: that this is still a pretty good deal for for
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  S2: the United States. We are throwing billions of dollars at
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  S2: the United States defense industry to build subs to build
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  S2: their own subs, to be quite frank. It might be
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  S2: that we end up subsidizing only US subs because they
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  S2: don't have to hand them over because the president of
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  S2: the day can say, sorry, we are underprepared in our
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  S2: own defense. So I don't think Aukus is going to
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  S2: be trouble there, but it is those those other issues
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  S2: that become problematic for a government that wants to talk
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  S2: about being ambitious on climate change. That's where the air
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  S2: is really going to start leaving the balloon.
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  S1: Maybe it's not a problem in the short term for
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  S1: an Albanese government or a Dutton government. But in the
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  S1: long term, if there's a prospect that we don't actually
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  S1: get the submarines because the Americans hang on to them themselves,
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  S1: isn't that kind of the whole point of the deal
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  S1: for us that we get submarines?
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  S2: Yeah, but we're talking they're like late 2030s. So it's
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  S2: not it's not a, it's not a big deal at
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  S2: the moment, and it is one that's going to have
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  S2: to be negotiated, and it's going to be one that
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  S2: will require a lot more effort from Australia.
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  S3: I think there's a live debate to be had about
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  S3: Aukus in the light of the election, the presidential election.
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  S3: And that's why I talked to Bob Carr and Gareth Evans,
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  S3: former labor foreign ministers. And, you know, critics of Aukus
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  S3: in the wake of the outcome. The US may not
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  S3: want to give us Virginia class nuclear propelled submarines in
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  S3: the 2030s, as we're expecting under Aukus. And that's because
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  S3: of pressures on the US military, pressures on the US Navy.
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  S3: So that is a debate to have about whether we're
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  S3: heading in the right direction with Aukus and whether we're
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  S3: going to have to reconsider it. It would not surprise
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  S3: me in the least if Donald Trump one day said
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  S3: to Anthony Albanese, I don't have a problem with Aukus,
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  S3: but Australia is only contributing $4.7 billion to our industrial
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  S3: might here. I think you better increase your investment. There's
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  S3: a lot of there's a lot of unknowns still to
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  S3: work through between the Australian government and the Trump administration.
• 8:24
  S4: Hi. Morning edition listeners. If you're looking for a series
• 8:27
  S4: to binge over the break, I want to recommend Trial
• 8:29
  S4: by Water. It's a podcast by some of my colleagues
• 8:32
  S4: at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. It's about
• 8:34
  S4: a man, Robert Farquharson, who was convicted of murdering his
• 8:38
  S4: three sons by driving them into a dam. And about
• 8:41
  S4: the people who are now questioning that conviction. Trial by
• 8:44
  S4: Water is a compelling and informative podcast series that will
• 8:48
  S4: make you question the way our justice system operates. So
• 8:51
  S4: please take a listen and recommend it to your friends. Thanks.
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  S1: Probes. Do we know anything about the relationship between the
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  S1: Albanese government specifically and the Trump team? Has there been
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  S1: a lot of has there been any contact? Has there
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  S1: been reach out apart from this call on Thursday morning?
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  S2: Well, what we do know is that Kevin Rudd has
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  S2: been working furiously in in the past few months to
• 9:20
  S2: realize some kind of connection. We know that Penny Wong,
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  S2: foreign minister, and Richard Marles, defence minister, have been in
• 9:29
  S2: contact with Mike Pompeo. He was former CIA boss and
• 9:34
  S2: also former secretary of state. Now he will play a
• 9:38
  S2: big role in the Trump administration, 2.0. And so he
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  S2: will be a very, very key person to know and
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  S2: to have as an ally inside inside Trump's Trump's office.
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  S1: Chloe, what do you think the relationship will be like
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  S1: between an Albanese government and a Trump administration? They're not
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  S1: exactly simpatico ideologically, are they?
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  S3: No they're not. And so it's going to be a
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  S3: rocky relationship. There's just no way to get around that. Um,
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  S3: they're coming at issues from different directions on so many
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  S3: fronts that there ends up being tension. And we already
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  S3: know from the first Trump presidency that he's not particularly
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  S3: inclined to make life easy for allies. And so I
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  S3: think we'll see that again. We'll see that in the
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  S3: region and we'll see that in the world. And Anthony
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  S3: Albanese will have to deal with that. But I don't
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  S3: think that means that it's necessarily bad politically for Anthony Albanese.
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  S3: I just want to be cautious on this point. I'm
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  S3: not saying it's good either. Volatility out of Washington DC
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  S3: can can cause a lot of pain for the Australian
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  S3: prime minister. It's quite possible for Donald Trump to chip
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  S3: away at Anthony Albanese as he has at other allies
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  S3: in the past. But we do have one example from
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  S3: the recent past where we know how things play out.
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  S3: Remember that leak of the transcript between Donald Trump and
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  S3: Malcolm Turnbull? When Malcolm Turnbull was prime minister, this was
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  S3: in 2017.
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  S5: That I had with Donald Trump right at the beginning
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  S5: of his presidency, was over the refugee resettlement deal that
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  S5: I'd done with Barack Obama. And I wanted Trump to
• 11:22
  S5: honour that deal. And his intention was not to. And
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  S5: we had a big argument about that. Quite a heated one,
• 11:28
  S5: in fact. But I stood my ground, and eventually he
• 11:31
  S5: agreed to stick with the deal, although with with with
• 11:35
  S5: great displeasure.
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  S3: Inside the Turnbull Prime Minister's office at that time. They
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  S3: didn't see it playing out badly for Malcolm Turnbull politically.
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  S2: He he did play it fierce and hard against Donald Trump.
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  S3: So the mistake here is to be craven towards Trump
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  S3: and to think that you've got to appease Trump.
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  S5: Now, if a foreign leader and there are plenty of
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  S5: examples of that in Trump's first term takes the approach
• 12:01
  S5: of essentially sucking up to Trump and telling him what
• 12:04
  S5: he wants to hear. Then they will just be treated
• 12:07
  S5: with disdain and they will get more bullying. So the
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  S5: only thing you get from a bully if you give
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  S5: in to them is more bullying. Now we have a
• 12:16
  S5: very good relationship with the United States. I had a
• 12:19
  S5: very good relationship with Trump, even though we had very
• 12:22
  S5: different politics. But I had a good relationship with him
• 12:26
  S5: because I stood up to him and he respected me
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  S5: for it. The critical thing for an Australian prime minister
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  S5: and an Australian government is not to be taken for granted.
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  S5: You know you can.
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  S3: So if Anthony Albanese learns from that experience, then the
• 12:42
  S3: answer will be to hold firm on Australian policies regardless of,
• 12:47
  S3: you know, what, Trump may tweet on that.
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  S1: I mean, I don't know if it's even possible to
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  S1: answer this question, but let's try anyway. Is is Trump
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  S1: in the white House when we look cast forward to
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  S1: our own next election. Is Trump in the white House
• 13:01
  S1: likely to help labor win the next election again, or
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  S1: Dutton and the coalition win the next election.
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  S2: That's a really tremendously difficult question to answer. I suppose
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  S2: the key to that will be how much of the
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  S2: Trump playbook does, uh, Dutton uh, take? Um, but you
• 13:23
  S2: can't look at the Trump presidency or, you know, Trump
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  S2: himself as being a Republican. He kind of isn't. Um,
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  S2: he has he has got the grand old party to
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  S2: surrender itself to him. So it is a party that
• 13:38
  S2: is utterly contained within his grasp. And therefore every major
• 13:46
  S2: decision is going to be made by Trump. Um, so
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  S2: you can't for example, there is no go to playbook or,
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  S2: or for um, uh, for Dutton, but he might want
• 13:59
  S2: to play with some of those anti-woke themes that we
• 14:05
  S2: hear and have heard from from Dutton over the past
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  S2: couple of years. There is that, I think, you know,
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  S2: that notwithstanding what people think about these things, there's definitely
• 14:17
  S2: a bit of a there's a reaction against political correctness,
• 14:23
  S2: as we once called it. Uh, the the idealism over practicality, uh,
• 14:31
  S2: tussle that is, that is Trumpism to some degree. That
• 14:35
  S2: is what Elon Musk is constantly railing against. Um, and
• 14:41
  S2: I think that that will be the temptation for Dutton.
• 14:44
  S2: But at the same time, you know, the grand gift
• 14:46
  S2: that we have as a commonwealth is, is compulsory voting
• 14:52
  S2: that that really does drag everything back into the centre
• 14:56
  S2: and it drags everything into the lounge room and Him
• 14:58
  S2: and everyone's dinner. Table.
• 15:00
  S1: David. Tell me. Tell me what you think about that.
• 15:03
  S1: Because whether or not taking elements of the incredible success
• 15:07
  S1: of Trump as a political juggernaut, taking elements of that
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  S1: and importing them into Australia, is that a winning strategy
• 15:13
  S1: for the coalition? We saw that play out a little
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  S1: bit with the abortion debate in the Queensland election, and
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  S1: then Jacinta Price, the coalition senator, has tried to bring
• 15:22
  S1: that into the federal sphere. But Dutton had something to
• 15:24
  S1: say about that this week, didn't he, at least privately?
• 15:27
  S3: Yeah. And I think that highlights the fact that Peter
• 15:31
  S3: Dutton can't take an American recipe book and cook up
• 15:35
  S3: a storm in Australia just by taking one from one
• 15:38
  S3: place to another, because we are such a different country.
• 15:41
  S3: When we asked Australian voters who they'd back in the
• 15:44
  S3: US presidential election, 52% said Kamala Harris. So copying the
• 15:49
  S3: the Trump playbook won't work for Peter Dutton here, but
• 15:55
  S3: harnessing the frustration about the cost of living and harnessing
• 15:58
  S3: frustration about migration, is working for Peter Dutton and will
• 16:02
  S3: continue to work. And in a sense, the coalition can
• 16:06
  S3: be heartened by the Trump outcome because it showed that
• 16:09
  S3: on the cost of living and on migration, those big
• 16:13
  S3: issues were working against the Democrats and they were working
• 16:16
  S3: for Donald Trump. That's what Peter Dutton wants to repeat here.
• 16:21
  S3: But as you mentioned, abortion was such an interesting issue
• 16:24
  S3: this week because it it got on to the US
• 16:27
  S3: election agenda and the Democrats thought it was working for them.
• 16:30
  S3: They went very hard on it. And then, of course,
• 16:33
  S3: what we've seen in Australia is that it came up
• 16:35
  S3: in the Queensland state election and then Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa
• 16:40
  S3: price said she was opposed to late term abortions. She
• 16:43
  S3: told our colleague Paul Circle that in our mastheads in
• 16:46
  S3: recent weeks, Peter Dutton told the coalition party room on
• 16:50
  S3: Tuesday morning that that hurt them. He didn't name Senator
• 16:54
  S3: Nampijinpa Price, but he mentioned the fact that abortion worked
• 16:58
  S3: against the LNP in Queensland. And he reminded everybody to
• 17:01
  S3: be disciplined and and not make it a federal issue.
• 17:05
  S1: Just quickly before we finish, the RBA made an interest
• 17:08
  S1: rates decision this week. They left rates on hold. I
• 17:11
  S1: just want to talk to you both about how that
• 17:13
  S1: will impact the election timing, because that's all we're talking
• 17:15
  S1: about now, right? You know, Albanese government is clearly moving
• 17:18
  S1: to an election campaign sort of footing. It's going to
• 17:21
  S1: happen in the next few months. How do you think
• 17:24
  S1: the rates decision plays into election timing probes?
• 17:28
  S2: Well, I think everything has changed in the past 24 hours.
• 17:30
  S2: The the return of Trump actually complicates things greatly. Steven
• 17:37
  S2: Kennedy's mob, he's the treasury secretary. They've already been looking
• 17:41
  S2: at what the the impact of trade restrictions would be.
• 17:44
  S2: He says it would inevitably lead to lower growth and
• 17:49
  S2: higher inflation. And with those ingredients, interest rate cuts might
• 17:54
  S2: be a long way off. We're dealing with a different
• 17:57
  S2: world now, Jackie, because from January onwards things will change
• 18:02
  S2: both for us in a trading sense as well as diplomatically.
• 18:06
  S2: And those two elements feed into the economy, both with
• 18:10
  S2: consumer sentiment and actual activity in ships and trades. So look,
• 18:18
  S2: I reckon interest rates cuts are have to be taken
• 18:22
  S2: out of the equation now. Anthony Albanese has to find
• 18:25
  S2: some other way of enticing people and encouraging people to
• 18:29
  S2: support him for another shot at prime ministership.
• 18:33
  S3: And they have to come up with a compelling cost
• 18:35
  S3: of living package without assuming an interest rate cut. That
• 18:39
  S3: means more energy bill relief, which is subject to debate,
• 18:42
  S3: but I think they'll probably go there again. But on
• 18:45
  S3: interest rates, they've got to get ready to go to
• 18:48
  S3: the polls with something that they can offer on their own,
• 18:51
  S3: rather than assuming the RBA is going to help them out.
• 18:54
  S1: Yeah, you don't always get to choose your own timing
• 18:56
  S1: in life, right? Yep. Fellas, thanks so much. It was
• 19:00
  S1: such a pleasure to have you. Can we have you
• 19:01
  S1: back on again?
• 19:02
  S2: You certainly can.
• 19:04
  S3: Thanks, guys. Good on you. Cheers.
• 19:17
  S1: Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Kai Wong
• 19:20
  S1: and Tammy Mills, with technical assistance from Dave McMillan and
• 19:24
  S1: Debbie Harrington. Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. Inside
• 19:29
  S1: politics is a production of The Age and The Sydney
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  S1: or Smh.com.au. Subscribe. I'm Jacqueline Maley, this is inside politics.
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  S1: Thank you for listening.