Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Tread Carefully | MLB & WNBA Playoffs & NFL | 9/27/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Tread Carefully | MLB & WNBA Playoffs & NFL | 9/27/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Down, baby. Look at me now Hold on, hold on
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: pull you out That fella fights hard But he don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: get the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Sunday, September 27th.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: We went 3-2 on the show yesterday. I'm not happy
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: with the 3-3. College football week started out extremely irritating
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: with the The bullshit loss that we took yesterday on
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: South Alabama. They're winning that game multiple times, I think,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: early in the game. Well, they're at least winning 14-7.
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: I know that. And then it was looking like it
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: was going into halftime.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Tied after, yeah, I think it was 21-21 pretty much
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: going into halftime. But then Kentucky got a field goal.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: So they have the momentum at halftime. They're up 24-21.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: And once that happened, I knew. South Alabama was not
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: going to.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Cover this because we saw it the week before that
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: UTEP did like a really similar thing, even though that
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: was a lower scoring game. But Michigan and Kentucky, I
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: think they both don't really have good offenses. And I'm like,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, bad, bad feeling about this, even
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: though we had a great first half from South Alabama,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: looking like we're well on the way to the cover
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: in that one.
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: And then what happens? Yeah, they completely blow it in
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: the second half.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: But not only that, at least UTEP pushed for us
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: against Michigan. South Alabama, they fall behind by one too
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: many scores later in the game, and then they still
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: had a chance to get back within the number at
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: the end. They were down, I think, to the 10-yard
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: line at the end of the game. They were at
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: the Kentucky 10-yard line at the end of the game.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: They threw an interception in the end zone, and a
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: touchdown there will cover the spread for us.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: But no, they throw a pick in the end zone. Really,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: really great.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: One of the more irritating losses that I've had. We
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: got an easy win with Florida. Although, yeah, Florida, I mean,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Mississippi was kind of hanging around in that game for
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: a while. The Florida, I don't think they were ever
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: trailing in the game. They jumped out to a lead early.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: They had a two score lead, I think, early. And
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: then it was kind of between two score, one score.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Then it kept being between two scores and three scores.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: And I think Ole Miss did have one pretty crucial
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: turnover in there as well. But Florida wound up running
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: away with the game anyway near the end. So we
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: did get that one right. New Mexico State was a disaster.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say about that. Not
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: really close, although I'd have to look at the statistics
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: to see how bad that really was. We did get
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: the cover with Georgia Southern. They hung within that number.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I think it was a wire-to-wire cover for them. They
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: wound up only getting within the number by one score, though,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: like Houston.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Houston just ran out the clock at the end of
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: the game, though, luckily, because they could have tried to
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: really put their foot on the gas and killed us,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: which would have really pissed me off, but they had
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: no real reason to do that, so whatever. And then
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: we got the win with Utah State. That game was
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: kind of close statistically, but Utah State.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, I still think it was pretty much a
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: legitimate winner. They pretty much won. Well, I don't want
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to say they ran away with it, but they did
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: not allow many points, at least, I'll tell you that,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: with a 21-10 win there.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: Mr.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Pizzi, what's up? Yes.
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: You're going to go through the entire alphabet.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going to add one baseball play into the
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: mix here, even though this is the last day of
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: the regular season. Like, you really have to look at
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: motivation here, but there are only really a few teams
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: that could change their standing at this point, so it
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: makes it really, really difficult. You have to tread really
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: lightly on a day like this. You know, a lot
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: of these teams are just going to be bringing out
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: a bunch of relief pitchers, kind of like what we
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: saw yesterday too.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: It becomes very unpredictable.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Baltimore and the Yankees is the first game. The Yankees
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: obviously do not need to win this game. Baltimore is
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: playing their last game of the season. It is against
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: an AL East rival, so Baltimore should have the motivational
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: edge here as the Yankees might just be looking ahead
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: to the playoffs at this point. Look ahead spot for
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: the Yankees probably. Yankees are bringing, the Yankees are going
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: with one of their young pitchers who hasn't really been
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: good so far so yankees look like they're not really
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: focused on winning this game pretty much um yankees did
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: not or nobody used any relief pitchers yesterday because uh
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: yankees and uh orioles did not i mean because they
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: uh did not play yesterday because of the nor'easter double
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: header the day before that yankees are the better bullpen
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: number four baltimore number 12 yankees are the better offense
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: as well their 14th tie with atlanta um Baltimore is
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: somewhere near the bottom. Yeah, they're 21. But I think
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is the right side if you're going to play
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: this game. You're going to get them as an underdog,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: and I think they're the team that's trying harder to
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: win this game probably. Shane Boz is pitching for them.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: He's okay. 4.11 ERA, 1.35 whip. 4.3 road ERA, though.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: He's not really that good on the road. He's been
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: okay in his last couple starts. Those walk rates have
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: gone up a little bit here. Baltimore's won his last
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: three starts although the one against Cleveland wasn't exactly good
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: but I would say he's at least pitching okay right
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: now his hit rate's not really good on the season
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: though his walk rate's kind of high strikeout rate's not
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: really that good either those numbers don't really look that
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: good I mean his whip doesn't really either 2.4 strikeout
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: walk ratio 7.7 strikeout per nine those are some of
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: the worst numbers that he's posted although overall he still
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: is kind of Been okay for Baltimore this year.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: His numbers against the Yankees are, I would say, mediocre.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: In 74 at-bats, 257 average allowed, 766 OPS, 22-9 strikeout
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. That's not good, but his numbers are okay there.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: He's going up against the glue guy, Elmer Rodriguez, who
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: has not been good for the Yankees so far. 5.4 ERA, 1.58 whip.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: He's basically had one actual good start in here at
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: home against Houston. Then he regressed again in his most
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: recent start that he made against a bad Anaheim lineup.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: He's not been in the Yankees rotation since then. I
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: think he's been in the minors since then. They called
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: him up, I guess, right here at the end of
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: the season to make the start, whatever. I don't even
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: know what roster move they really made, but it's expanded
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: rosters here anyway. I still think Baltimore's the right side here.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: I think they're the team that has more to play
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: for here, at least. And I'd probably trust Boz over
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: the new E-Rod here. 59% of tickets, 80% of the
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: cash on the Yankees, though.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: Minus 130.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Yankees look like they're getting the money, but again, I
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: think the Yankees might just be looking ahead to the
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: playoffs right now. They have nothing to gain by winning
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: this game. They're trying out their young pitcher again here
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: who hasn't been good so far. Baltimore might want to
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: just get this game to end the season on a
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: high note, so I'm going to lean the Orioles in
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: that game. I probably would not disagree with the over
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: in this game either, even though it's Bad weather up here,
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: still colder. Seven and a half is not a high
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: total in that game, but the money seems to be
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: agreeing with the over, even though, like I always say,
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: low totals usually mean the odds makers do think it'll
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: be a low-scoring game. I don't know. I mean, Boz
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: is not really excellent, so the pitching in that game
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't exactly look great. Yes, I drink coffee all the time.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: I'm a caffeine addict. I drink pretty much black coffee
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of the time. Mets and Washington, these teams,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: nothing to play for after today. Both teams, I feel
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: like they'll probably both try to win this game, try
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: to end the season on a high note here. Each
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: team has won one game in the series here. The
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Mets won the game yesterday. The pitching matchup in this
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: game looks pretty bad, though. Washington has the worst bullpen.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: They only used one guy out of the bullpen. Their
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: bullpen is trash. The Mets used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Still probably have a bullpen edge, though. They're number seven,
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: Washington 27 in bullpen. Hitting-wise, the Mets are bad. They're 23rd.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Washington is fourth currently.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: Mets going with Sean Minaya in this game. He's not
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: that good.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: 4.67 ERA. 1.3 whip, I guess, is not that bad.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit better on the road.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: 4.62, excuse me, road ERA.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: He's been pitching well recently, though. He's got a 21-3
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio this month. That's pretty good, even though
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: his ERA is above 5. Last couple of outings, he
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: only allowed two earned runs in each of them. So
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: he's in pretty decent form right now. His command numbers
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: have been all right recently, although on the season, his
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: hit rate's too high. His walk rate is just okay.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is decent. 3.3 strikeout walk ratio is
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: not that bad. 8.8 case per 9 is alright as
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: well so those numbers are alright he's been a little
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: bit too hittable this year though numbers against Washington are
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: not great in 95 at bats 274 average 772 OPS
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: 25 to 7 strikeout walk ratio so the ratio is
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: fairly good the other numbers not really that good Minaya
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: could give up something here in this game against Washington.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: DJ Herz is pitching for Washington. He's one of their
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: younger guys, and he has not pitched that well with
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: them over the last couple seasons.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: Last year, well, actually, last year he was better than
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: I remember. Last year he was all right.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: This year has not gone well for him so far,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: but he only made one start against Detroit. It did
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: not go that well, but Yeah, last year he actually
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: wasn't that bad. 4.16 ERA, 1.26 whip, over 19 starts
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: last year, and he had a pretty good strikeout rate
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: last year.
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: So maybe he is actually a little bit. He's probably better.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: He's definitely better than his 9 ERA and 1.75 whip
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: this year would suggest. However, the Mets have hit him,
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: although the Mets only have five guys who have faced him.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: Lindor has definitely done damage against him. They have 20
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, five strikeouts, one walk, but a 400
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: batting average and 1,079 OPS. I don't really trust the
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: pitching in this game. I don't really want to do this,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: but I think an over is probably the way to
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: play this game. Eight, eight and a half is the total.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: It's not really that high. 69% of tickets on the
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: under for whatever reason.
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: 90% of cash on the over.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Looks like the over is getting the money. Looks like
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: the Mets are also getting the money. 69% of tickets,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: 95% of the cash on them. It's basically a pick-em price.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: To me, again, it seems like the public would be
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: on the Washington side, although it looks like they're not
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: really because... I don't know, usually the public you would
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: think would be on the side with the better offense
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: and the better record, but I don't know, man. Minaya,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: I guess, he's the more proven pitcher at this point.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: He's in better form right now, so I get the
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: argument for the Mets, plus they do have the better
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen still, but I still probably prefer the over. I
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: think the pitching is a bit questionable in that game.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Not enough that I want to play it, though, because Minaya,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: he is in good form right now, and hers is
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: not as bad as.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: His numbers suggest, so.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Cubs and Boston we have no idea who's pitching in
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: this game they didn't play yesterday so the bullpens arrested
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: but both teams looking ahead to the playoffs at this
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: point I'd expect the pitching to not be anything spectacular
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: in this game like both teams are probably going to
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: go with some bullpen approach maybe, or who knows.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Red Sox, you would think it would be the type.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Of game they might use Bennett, but Bennett pitched out
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen the other day, so I don't know
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: what either team is doing here. No idea. The money
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: seems to be back in the under and the Cubs
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: in this game. Cubs are about a minus 120 favorite,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: and 7.5 is the total. But again, we have no
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: idea what the pitching matchup looks like here. And this game.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: Wait, what? This game, it says it's in Tropicana Field.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Is that really right?
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: No. Really?
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: I know Tampa's on the road here today.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: Wow. So because of the weather up here, I guess
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: they moved this game to Tampa. That's fucking insane if
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: that's true. I have no clue, dude. No clue. If
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: it's Tampa, I mean, the Red Sox, they'll be more
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: familiar with that because the Red Sox are in the
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: same division as Tampa, so they're more used to playing there.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to help them that much.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: That game looks like a total mess, dude. I don't
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: know what we're doing here with that game. That's just
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: completely insane. Let me see if ESPN actually does have
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: that as the... Yeah, they're playing that game at the Trop.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: That is so ridiculous, dude. And Rafaela needs to be healthy, man,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: because he came back from injury and he got hurt
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: again today. immediately, and he hasn't played since then. Red
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Sox are going to need this guy. He's their only
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: hitter that's done well against Schlittler, by the way, and
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: it looks like Schlittler is actually going to be moved
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: up to game one of that series or potentially game two.
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: Red Sox need Rafaela.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: He's literally their only hitter that could do anything against
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Schlittler right now. This is bad, really, really bad for
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. That's an automatic loss, the Red Sox
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: having to face Schlittler. All right, Tampa Bay playing on
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: the road here. Speaking of them, so the Red Sox
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: are hijacking their stadium while they're on the road. Red
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: Sox are going to squat in there. Tampa Bay is
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: playing Philadelphia here. This game really getting interesting, man. Philadelphia.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: pretty much needs to win this game. The situation is
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: now that Philly has a one-game lead still over Arizona
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: for the last wild-card spot, I'm pretty sure, because both
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: teams lost yesterday. Philly's lost four games in a row.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is still trying to win. It's crazy. Philadelphia
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: got destroyed by them yesterday, 12-1. Philadelphia really running out
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: of time here, although they do have one of their
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: best pitchers on the mound here to try to get
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: this job done and make sure they make the playoffs. Now,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia does not have the tiebreaker against Arizona. That's why
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has not secured this last wildcard spot yet. They're
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: one game ahead of Arizona, but if they lose and
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Arizona wins, Arizona will be the last wild card, and
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia will be out of the playoffs, which seemed like
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: it would be impossible even about a week ago. This
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: is crazy. But Tampa's got a decent starting pitcher on
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: the mound here, too, and they seem to be hell-bent
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: on just ruining Philadelphia's season right now. I don't know
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: what Tampa's doing, but they're really trying to win, it
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: looks like here. even though they have the playoffs to
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: look forward to. So you would think motivationally, Philadelphia's got
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: to have the edge here, motivationally. I mean, Tampa does
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: not need this game. They got the playoffs upcoming. Philadelphia
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: does need this game. However, you're going to have to
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: pay for it. You're going to have to pay for
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: the fact that it's a must-win pretty much for Philly,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: and they have a good pitcher on the mound. The
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: good news for Philly, though, is that they don't control
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: their own destiny, really. Oh, no, wait, they do.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: Never mind. No, no, wait, they do.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Never mind.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: That is bad news for Philly. Never mind. Because if
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: they win, they're in.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: That's what you don't, you do not want to back
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: a team that's winning in, in my opinion. You see
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: this in the NFL all the time, or when a
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: team controls their own destiny, and if they win, they're in.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: That's like all they focus on, and it becomes this
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: like mental distraction almost.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: Like, yep, all we got to do is win. All
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: we got to do is win.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Whereas I think teams play a lot looser when they
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: don't control their own destiny, and they do need to win,
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: but they need other things to happen for them to
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: do it too. That's going to be the case with Texas,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: who I'll talk about later. They need to win, but
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: they also need Houston to lose. So it's like, you know,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: they can only do their part, but the other part
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: of it is out of their hands.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: Um, so I think it's a better spot for, um, yeah,
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I think it's in a way it's a better spot
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: for Arizona today because Arizona, they need to win, but, um,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: they also need Philadelphia to lose. And by the way,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: all of these games are being played at the same time.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: So there's going to be no scoreboard watching here, right?
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: Like it's not going to be like, oh, Arizona sees
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: the Philly wins and then Arizona just has no reason
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: to play. You know what I mean? That's not going
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: to be the case because these games are all being played.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: at 3 p.m. Eastern, except the Yankees and Mets games
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: are at 1 p.m. Eastern for whatever reason, but literally
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: the entire rest of the board is at 3 p.m.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Brad, what's up? NFL plays, we have the same plays.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: All right, that's, yeah, I mean, you like to see that,
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: I guess. Yeah, hopefully we get some wins there. I'm
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: pretty confident in just my overall picks over the whole
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: NFL board. but hopefully the ones that I picked as
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: plays are actually the best ones. You know, I feel strongly,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: so we got to go at least two and one
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: with those. Anyway, Philadelphia, yes, they're in a must win,
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: but you're going to have to pay extra for it, man.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: That's kind of the thing here.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia's bullpen is also not that good, although the Rays
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: used six relief pitchers yesterday, so Their bullpen is pretty
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: used right now. The Philadelphia used five themselves yesterday. You
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: see a lot of bullpen usage in these final days, man,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: because after today there's not a whole lot left to
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: play for, except Tampa does have the playoffs. Although they're
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: going to get a.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Bye, though. That's the thing about Tampa Bay.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: They could kind of still pull out all the stops
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: in this game, and then they're going to have multiple
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: days off to rest up for the playoffs because they
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: get a bye in the first round. So Tampa does
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: not really have to worry about any of that, about
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: their usage pitching-wise here. as long as they don't get
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: anybody hurt. Tampa Bay is number three in bullpen. Their
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: ERA is below four again, although I don't think they're
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: really the third-best bullpen, but they're better than Philly. Philly's
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: number 20 with an ERA in the mid-fours. Tampa Bay
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: is also the better offensive team, number eight. Philadelphia, number 23,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: tied with the Mets. Although Tampa is not as good
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: on the road as they are at home, yet they
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: keep beating Philly here. Philly is better at home than
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: they are on the road. But we'll see what happens
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: in this game. Nick Martinez is getting the start for
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: Tampa here. Good season for him. 2.94 ERA, 1.07 whip.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Those are really good numbers, and the advanced analytics guys
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: still shit on this guy, even though his career has
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: been pretty good. He just keeps doing this, even though
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I know he pitches to contact. But at some point,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: you've got to admit that, yeah, he's able to do
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: this consistently. He's got a 2.05 road ERA, so he's
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: better on the road.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: He's been really good in his recent starts.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in the last five,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: two or fewer in the last three. Good command rate, too.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is really low recently. Yeah, he's in
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: good form right now. uh he's got a low hit
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: rate on the season he walks basically nobody his strikeout
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: rate is really low though which is again the advanced
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: analytics guys shit on him for that but he's got
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: a 4.3 strikeout walk ratio because his walk rate is
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: also ridiculously low 5.5 strikeout per nine. But yes, when
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: you have that few walks and that few strikeouts, it
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: means you're throwing a lot of.
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: Pitches over the plate. But with him.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: Again, his career numbers have been fairly consistent here, and
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: he's able to get guys out. I mean, that's just
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: what he does, although this has been even better than
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: he usually is, though. So, yeah, I mean, did we
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: expect him to be this good this year? No. But
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: he's also not a terrible pitcher by any means. His
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: numbers against Philadelphia are not horrible. In 68 at-bats, 250 average,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: 738 OPS, 17-3 strikeout walk ratio. So those numbers are
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: pretty good across the board there. So I don't really
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: expect Martinez to pitch poorly here. He's not the better
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers, though, obviously. Zach Wheeler is the
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: better pitcher here.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: He's going for Philly.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: They need one of their best pitchers here to do this,
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: to make sure they make the playoffs here. Although, you know,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Arizona could lose, but that's the other thing. Like, Philly,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: in their mind, they could be thinking, like, hey, even
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: if we don't win this game, Arizona could still lose
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: and we'll still get in.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: So it's almost like, you know, I don't like that
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: mindset for a team.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? That's the worry with Philly here.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: 3.06 ERA for Wheeler, 1.06 whip. He's been good.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: He's been really consistent.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit better at home. 3.01 home ERA
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: with a below 200 batting average allowed at home. He's
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: in good form again recently after he had a stretch
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: in August where he didn't pitch well, but he's been
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: really good for five starts in a row now pretty much.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: Last start, he was a little bit worse against Milwaukee,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: but he still had a lot of strikeouts there. He
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: allowed one or zero run in four starts in a
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: row prior to that. He only allowed three against Milwaukee. So, yeah,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well right now. High strikeout rate, low walk
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: rate recently.
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: All those numbers are good. Low hit rate as well.
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: Same on the season. Low hit rate.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: Doesn't really walk many guys. Strikes out a lot of guys.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: Four strikeout walk ratios, pretty solid. 10.8 strikeout per nine
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: is also good. His numbers against Tampa, though, they're not
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: as good as you would think. In 48 at-bats, 271 average,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: 793 OPS allowed, 10 to 3 strikeout walk ratio. It's
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: not awful, but, you know, I mean, Tampa has been
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: able to get to him a little bit here, so
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: he doesn't completely dominate them or anything like that. The
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: money is all coming in on Tampa here, and I
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: think I agree with that. 73% of tickets on Philly,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: 79% of the cash on Tampa. Martinez has the better
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here. Wheeler, probably a little bit overrated, and
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: you have to pay a huge price for this. Minus 170,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: and like I said, Philly's in that position where they
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: control their own destiny, and that tends to not be
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: good mentally for a team.
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: It's just the way that it is.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: That mental process is just not good for really focusing
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: and getting that win there, especially as a big favorite. Although,
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: of course, to win on the money line, of course,
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: all they need to do is win the game. But
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: if you're going to try to play Philly, you'd have
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: to make a minus one run line or something, and
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: the total's really low here. Money seems to be indicating
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: on the over, but the total's six and a half, seven.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: And I keep saying that just long-term playing under six
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: and a half in baseball is a winning bet, even
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: though I don't like to do it because you don't
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: get the key number. But all I was thinking is
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: telling you, low-scoring game, I don't disagree with that. I
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: do think this game looks like an under. I'm worried
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: about the bullpen usage, though. So first five under might
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: be better here, but you're going to be looking at
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: a three if you do that, and you know how
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: much I hate that.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: So I don't really want to do that either.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: But low-scoring game, Tampa seems to, Want to win these games,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and they do have matchup numbers that kind of support this,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: at least for Tampa to keep this game close. I
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: think playing Tampa on the run line maybe in the
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: full game or something, like a plus one run line,
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: because I do still think they have the better bullpen here.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Tampa is like a plus one run line play in
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: the full game. May make some sense here. So those
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: are my thoughts on that game. Next game will be
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: my one play that I have, which is Houston and
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: the A's. Houston, they're in a similar spot to Philadelphia.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: They're going to be laying a huge price here because
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: they're playing a bad team, the A's. All Houston needs
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: to do is win. They have the tiebreaker. They're currently
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: still tied with Texas. Both teams won yesterday, so they're
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: still tied. One team is getting in. One team is out.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: Whoever comes out of this wins this division, and the
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: other team is out of the playoffs. Houston has the tiebreaker, though,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: like I said. So they're in the driver's seat. So
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: they're just in a win-and-in scenario here. And like I said,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: I don't like that. I think that that puts the
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: team in a bad mindset because they're still thinking, oh, well,
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: even if we don't win, Texas could still lose and
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: we'll still be in.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: And that control your own destiny. I mean, they're not
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: going to not try to win, obviously. They're definitely going
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: to try to win. But the thing is that mindset
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: just kind of, it puts like the pressure on you,
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: too much pressure focusing on all we got to do
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: is win. All we got to do is win. Whereas
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I would prefer to be in Texas's situation, even if
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: they don't get it done as far as. Being able
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: to win this particular game, I think it helps Texas
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit as far as, you know, if they win,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: they're still not going to be in unless Houston also loses. So,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? So Texas needs to win
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: and needs help. So I think that's a better mindset
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: to be in because you focus on winning, but you
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: know that the rest of it is out of your hands.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: You don't want to control your own destiny. It's like you're...
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: You're playing God, basically, and bad things happen when you
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: try to play God. This game, though, I'm not focusing
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: on the side in this game, though, for my play.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: My play is a total, and this game is an
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: over for me here. Right now it is 9.5 at
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: even money. That's the best I can find out there.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: I was hoping there'd be a 9 out there somewhere
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: because 9 is a key number, so I'd much rather
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: take this over 9 than 9.5. But I think this
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: is going to be a bad pitching setup in this
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: game for both sides. I think it's essentially going to
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: be a bullpen game on both sides here, and neither bullpen.
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: Is really that good.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Houston didn't use any of their relief pitchers yesterday, but
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: I'm still not sold on this pitching setup here. The
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: A's used three. We know the A's bullpen is terrible.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: They're ranked second worst, but I keep telling you they're
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: the worst. Houston's bullpen is mediocre at best at number 14.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: They haven't been that good recently. We have two offenses
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: that could do some damage. Houston number seven, A's number 12,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: tied with the D-backs who have really moved up recently.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: We're in Sacramento here in this A's band box stadium,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: which does usually a lot of runs come home in
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: this stadium. We saw 15 come home in the game yesterday,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: and at 13-2, Houston win and I think the pitching
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: setup in this game is ugly as Peter Lambert is
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: pitching for Houston and while yeah I've definitely said good
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: things about him this year he's had a good season
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: his only good season ever 3.870 RA 1.26 whip but
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: I think he's been kind of losing it towards the
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: end of the season and you'll see in a minute
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: when you look at his game log I don't think
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: he's going to make a full start here.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: I think he's only going to pitch a couple innings here.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: So I would say play this as action because you
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: don't even really know which starters are actually starting, which
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: pitchers are actually going to start this game.
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: I think it's just going to be, you know, whatever.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Bring in any relief pitcher you can here. And while
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: sometimes I can mess with the hitting, I think it
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: might just be a bad thing as far as the
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: pitching is concerned here. Lambert, he's got a better ERA
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: on the road, but his opponent batting average is worse
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: than on the road, so I'm not sure he's really
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: going to pitch that well here. He literally just pitched
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: in the stadium two days ago. I think he was
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: the starter two days ago, and he went two and
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: two-thirds innings, and he got bombed. He gave up two
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: home runs, four home runs, six hits in two and two-thirds,
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: had a lot of strikeouts, six of them, but two walks.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: He did not pitch well, man, and because he threw
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: 62 pitches in that outing three days ago, not two
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: days ago, three days ago, I think he's going to
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: do something similar here.
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: I think he's only going to go two to three
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: innings here at most.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: He's off schedule, which can throw off a starting pitcher
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: when you start messing with the schedule like this.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: So I don't like that either.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: And, yeah, I mean, he was pitching pretty well in
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: the prior three starts, but this is just a different scenario, man.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: He's got his schedule thrown off. Now pitching in this
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: A's stadium, I think it's going to be bad for him.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: He is a fly ball heavy pitcher. Part of the
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: reason why he didn't do well when he was with Colorado.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: So I don't think this is good. I really don't.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: His hit rate's been good on the season. His walk
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: rate is.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Kind of questionable, though. His strikeout rate is good. So
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: those numbers are all right. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is mediocre.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: Nine strikeout per nine is all right. But again, I
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: don't like the fly ball rate. I don't like what
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: they're doing with his pitching schedule here. Don't like how
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: he looked against the A's, and I don't like his
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: overall numbers against the A's. They have 30 at-bats against him, a.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: 367 average, 1,058 OPS, 9-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: So I think he might struggle here.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: And then Houston's going to have to yield to their bullpen,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: which isn't really a good bullpen. So I don't like that.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: And the A's are just going with a straight-up bullpen
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: game here. It's going to be next man up type
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: of thing. I don't think that's good. And they have
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Seth Johnson currently listed as their opener. He has an
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: ERA over 6, 6.19, 1.69 whip.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this guy hasn't been good.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: He pitched earlier in the series as well a couple
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: days ago, and he gave up a run in the
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: one inning he was in. Houston hasn't seen him that much,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: but they do have a 1,133 opener. against him at
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: least because Cam Smith has a home run against him.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: They only have five at-bats against him, though, and that's
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: the only hit. But still, I don't trust what either
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: team is really doing here. So to me, I think
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: this is the one play to make here today. It's
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: the over in this game. Looks like the market kind
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: of agrees with that as we see 83% of tickets
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: on the under and 55% of the cash on the under. Yeah,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: I think this goes over the total.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: That's what I have to say about this.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: 91% of tickets, 72% of the cash on Houston. So
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: like I said, the money is fading Houston in a
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: spot like this because you have to lay minus 180
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: with a must win team on the road or not
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: a must win.
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: Well, must like they do kind of need to win.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Right. But it's a win in your in type of scenario,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: like I already explained, which I think is a negative
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: And the A is, you know. If they can, they'll
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: want to play spoiler here, right?
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Like, I think the teams in this division are sick
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: of Houston winning the division most years recently. So I
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: think the A's are going to try to win at
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: the very least, show up and try to play spoiler
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: here against a divisional foe that they really don't like.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, but over is my play there. That's the
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: only baseball play I got. Dodgers at San Francisco. The Dodgers,
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: I believe they're locked into the two seed. I think
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: that's been the case for a while. So they don't
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: really have much reason to show up here, although they
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: keep winning anyway. San Francisco's lost both games in the series.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: I was correct about the under in the game yesterday.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Although San Francisco really went with a... kind of like
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: a bullpen approach in that game yesterday but this will
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: be San Francisco's last game of the season so I
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: think they'll at least be motivated here they want to
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: try to get a win here against their hated rival
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers before the season ends here Dodgers I believe
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: have nothing to gain by winning this game if I'm
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: not mistaken so San Francisco probably the more motivated team
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: here and we don't even know who the Dodgers pitcher
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: is going to be here dodgers used five relief pitchers
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: yesterday uh san francisco used even more than that though
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: they use six and i do not trust san francisco's
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: bullpen they are ranked 24th although like i said their
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: era does indicate that they're better than most of the
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: teams in that range uh the dodgers are the better
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: bullpen at number eight dodgers are the number two offense
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: and way better than the giants who are number 22
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher friendly park here in san francisco
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: but when you have No idea who's pitching for the Dodgers.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: And San Francisco has Carson Seymour listed as their starter,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: who does not have good numbers. 4.7 ERA, 1.53 whip.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: He's a relief pitcher, though.
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: He's only going to go one inning here. He's going
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: to be an opener.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: And then San Francisco is going to yield to the
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: bullpen after that. Seymour does not have good numbers against
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, really, either. So, to me, this game looks
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: like it's probably an over as well. Like, when you
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: get games like this where it's kind of whatever and
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: neither team is really giving you the best that they
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: got pitching-wise. It becomes more like kind of a... like
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: an exhibition game, you know what I mean? Where I
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: think hitting happens more in a game like that. It's
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: similar to like, you know, when you get... games in
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: the NFL or NBA or whatever that don't matter at
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: the end of the season. The defenses don't play as intense,
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: so a lot of times the overs make sense in
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: games like that. I think it's similar in baseball as
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: far as, you know, I mean, any individual pitcher could
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: go out there and try, though, but the money seems
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: to be definitely indicating on the over here. 67% of
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under, 91% of the cash on the
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: over here. Total's around eight, so not really a high total.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers are also minus 250. 260 favorite here, whatever,
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: minus 250, minus 260 favorite, even though we have no idea.
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: Who's even pitching for them.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the San Francisco side,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: which I would agree with that kind of blindly just
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: based on the situation that San Francisco should be the
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: more motivated team. And if you can get them to
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: come within, you know, one and a half runs or
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: whatever on the run line in what's, you know, in
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: what's a low total game, at least maybe that would
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: make sense.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: But I still like the over in the game though.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: Better I would say so that you know I know
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: those two results are not correlated like if you like
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: a big underdog like that you want the game to
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: be lower scoring but I think the over is the
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: better way to play that because it just looks like
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: neither team is giving you the best pitching wise there
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: and it's another one where you should probably just do
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: it action if you're really going to play that but
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: you never know I mean the Dodgers might decide like
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: hey we're going to use some decent pitcher here that's
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: decent against San Francisco you never really know So that's
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: kind of the risk with that game.
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: Not really worried about that.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: With Houston because Houston doesn't really have any good starting
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: pitchers except for Hunter Brown, and he's not going to
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: be pitching in this game because he pitched two days ago,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: so whatever. Cincinnati at Toronto. I think there is some...
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: professional opinion in this game on the under, I would say.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, these teams don't hit well, so there is that.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: These teams have split the series so far with the
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Reds getting the game yesterday. This is the last game
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: of the season for both teams. Neither team making the playoffs,
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: so this will be it for these two teams. Cincinnati's
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: bullpen is bad. They used three guys yesterday. Toronto used four.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Toronto is the better bullpen. Cincinnati is way down at 25th.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Toronto's 17th, but their ERA is pretty solid, 3.58. So
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: I think they're better than where that ranking would put them.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Although I don't want to just only rank them based
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: on ERA, which is why I don't. I arrange it
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: by WIP, and I arrange the offense by OPS. Toronto's
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: number 29 out of 30 offensively, and Cincinnati not much
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: better at 25th. Brandon Williamson getting the start for Cincinnati. He's,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's been a starter in the past, so
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: he is a starter, even though he's kind of been
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: a relief pitcher this year. He hasn't been that good. 4.89 ERA, 1.41 whip.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: Although if you look at his career numbers before he
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: missed all of last year with an injury and most
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: of 2024 with an injury, he was actually pitching pretty
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: well up to that point. So it seems like injuries
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: have kind of derailed his career a little bit, but
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: he pitched well last time out. He had a six
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: inning shutout against the Braves on the road last time out.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: So he's in okay form at least right now. Uh,
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Williamson reasonable hit rate here. Those walk rate is just
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: way too high and his strikeout rate is not high
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: at all. So his strikeout walk ratio is really, really bad. Uh,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: one of the worst that you'll see, he's got to
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: do something about that by which I mean, stop walking people. Um, 1.2
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. You can't even remain in the league
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: with a number like that, so he's got to fix that,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: or in the majors, I should say. Six strikeout per nine,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout rate has gone down as well, but
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: the walks have been the main issue with him. Toronto, though,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: they might not be able to take advantage of that
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: because their offense isn't good. They have three hitters who
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: have faced him, nine at-bats, but they do have a.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: 333 average off him. 1,000 OPS. Schneider does have a
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: home run against him. Two strikeouts, no walks. I'm not
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: convinced necessarily that Williamson will pitch well here, though. He could.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: I think it's up in the air, man, because again,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers, small sample size, but they don't look good.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: His season-wide numbers really don't look good. He looks better recently.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: He had no walks in his last outing. Only two strikeouts, though,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: against the Braves. We will see, and I don't trust
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: Max Scherzer on the other side either, so I was
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: surprised that at least on Action Network, it looked like
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: the professionals were on the under in this game. It
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: would be entirely because the hitting is bad in this game,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: I think, but the pitching is also not good in
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: this game. Scherzer, I mean, you know, shout out to Verlander,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: by the way. I kind of knew it was going
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: to happen, man. Verlander had a pretty good start in
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday. They let him go, like, into the
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: sixth inning, I'm pretty sure, in that start. He was
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: losing the game when he exited the game, but they
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: wound up winning the game anyway on a walk-off. He
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: didn't get the win, but it was almost sort of
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: movie-esque in a way that his team did get the
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: win in that final appearance that he made.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: He had a good start in the game, so I
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: don't know.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: It was almost like you kind of expected that that
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: was going to be what would happen in that game.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: Max Scherzer, though, is he retiring?
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: I have no idea. Is this going to be his
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: last start? I haven't heard anything about that, so I
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: don't know. I think Verlander is older than Scherzer, but still. Scherzer,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, he does not have much left, obviously. 6.14 ERA, 1.36
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: whip this year.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: Not good.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: He's not good at home. 6.24 home ERA. His numbers
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: here recently, not that good. Walk rate's gone up over
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: the last couple of starts. His ERA is over six
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: this month. Strikeout rate is definitely diminished from what it
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: used to be in his career. He's got a hit
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: rate that's mediocre at this point. His walk rate's definitely
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: too high. His strikeout rate is down this year. Not
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: a lot to love here. 1.8 strikeout walk ratio is
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: really bad considering he had some really good ratios throughout
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: his career. That ratio's ugly. And 7.1 strikeout per nine,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: also really low compared to what he used to post
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: during his what will be a Hall of Fame career. Cincinnati, though,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: their offense is crap, and they have not been able
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: to hit him. In 31 at-bats, 21 of them from Suarez.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: They have not done a lot of damage against him.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: A 129 average, 625 OPS, though, which is higher than
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: you'd think because Suarez does have two home runs, but
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: he's only three for 21 off him. 12 to three
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio here, and 10 of those strikeouts are
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: also Suarez. Maybe Scherzer can actually pitch well here. I mean,
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: it sounds crazy, but I think I'd actually prefer him
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: over Williamson, in my opinion. But the money is coming
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: in on Cincinnati. 77% of tickets on Toronto, 83% of
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: the cash on Cincinnati. It's because of the price, though.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: Toronto's minus 180 here. Scherzer, at this point in his career, yeah,
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: he should not be a favorite like that.
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: So I can kind of see why the money's coming
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: in on Cincinnati, although I think if you do that,
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: you should take the first five because their bullpen is
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: definitely worse. To me... I think Toronto should win this game, though,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: based on what this matchup looks like. We will see, though.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: I would not recommend making a run line with them either, though.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: The total is not as low as you would think
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: at 8.5. We have 64% of tickets, 62% of the.
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Cash on the under.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: So that.
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: The market read here looks like it's almost indicating towards
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: the over a little bit here.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: And... You know, I mean, I somewhat lean that way, too,
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: because I think the pitching is just not that good here. So.
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: To me, it looks more like an over than an under,
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: but sometimes bad hitting cannot overcome pitching that's not even good.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: Good pitching, I think, has the upper hand over good hitting.
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: Bad hitting, I think, does not always have the upper
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: hand over bad pitching. Sometimes bad pitching can still have
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: the advantage over bad hitting.
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, man.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: Although I tend to just lean towards pitching kind of
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: dictating everything. Atlanta at Miami, but at least we don't
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: have to worry about that with Houston in the A's
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: because those offenses are at least not terrible. All right, Atlanta-Miami.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's going to the playoffs. This is going to be
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: Miami's last game. Miami lost yesterday. These teams have split
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: the series here. Miami probably more motivated in this game
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: because it's their last game of the season. They get
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: a chance to get a win against a division rival here.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: Atlanta might be looking ahead to the playoffs. Atlanta's not
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: really taking this game that seriously by putting out one
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: of their young arms here that hasn't done that well.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's bullpen is still good, but they did use six
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, so that's not exactly great. Miami used five, though,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: so we're going to still give Atlanta the bullpen edge.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: They're number two here, although, again, I think they're really
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: probably the fourth best bullpen, I would say, behind Red Sox, Yankees,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee. That would be, and the Padres are not
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: that far off either. miami's number 11 i don't love
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: their bullpen that much though i mean i yeah i
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: think bullpen edge definitely goes to atlanta here offensively miami's
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: ninth tie with the white socks atlanta is number 14
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: tie with the yankees but i don't know man i
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: still like atlanta's uh lineup better than miami so um
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: maybe that's a little bit misleading there jr richie getting
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: the start for atlanta here Hasn't been that good this season.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: I think this has been his rookie season. Yeah, 4.79 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5.45 road ERA, so he's not really
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: been that good on the road. Pitched pretty well last
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: time out against the Reds, but they're not a good offense.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: He held them to one run in five innings.
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: That was at home.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: Wasn't really pitching that well prior to that, though. I
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: don't really trust him here. His hit rate is not bad,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: but he walks a ton of guys this season. His
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate's not bad either. The number is the walks.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: That's the bad number here. That's his problem. He's got
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: to fix this walk thing, man. 1.6 strikeout walk ratio,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: that's not going to cut it. He's got to get
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: these walks down. 8.8 case per nine is not bad,
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: so you got to stop walking, people. He does do
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: well against Miami, though, although it's a small sample size.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: Six hitters have faced him, 13 at-bats. They have no
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: extra base hits, 231 average, 462 OPS, 2-0 strikeout walk ratio,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: so he might be able to pitch well here, and
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: he might actually be preferable over Jansen Junk, who's getting
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: the start from Miami, 4.31 ERA, 1.31 WIP, Junk is
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: a little bit better at home, even though his ERA
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: is not as good. His opponent batting average is better
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: at home, and it is a more pitcher-friendly park here.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: Junk pitched well in his last game. Surprisingly, five-inning shutout
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: at Wrigley. Pitched really well in that start. Six strikeouts,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: one walk, only two hits allowed. So that was good.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: So Junk at least looks like he's in okay form
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: over his last couple outings here. I don't know if
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: I really want to trust him, though, because I know
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: he's not that good against the Braves. He's got a
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: high hit rate on the season, too. Doesn't really walk
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: many guys. Doesn't strike out many guys, either, though. So
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: he is a junk pitcher, pretty much. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: That's mediocre. 6.4 strikeout per nine is definitely not impressive.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Atlanta, yeah, they're not impressive. And 54 at-bats,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: 352 average allowed, 938 OPS, 9-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: those numbers are not good. The pitching matchup does favor Atlanta,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: but the situation, like the motivation, I think favors Miami here.
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: What do we do with this?
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, it looks way too easy to play Atlanta.
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: It's a pick-em price here, and Atlanta's got 68% of tickets,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: 61% of the cash on them, so the money is
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: saying to take Miami here. I don't want to do
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: it because the matchup doesn't look great for it, so... Yeah,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, the game's definitely a pass for me. I
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: think the matchup does favor Atlanta, so it wouldn't shock
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: me if Atlanta won this game, obviously. I mean, it
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: wouldn't shock anybody, but eight and a half is the total.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be indicating towards the under a
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: little bit here. I don't know. I mean, Junk just
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: doesn't pitch well against Atlanta, man, and that's what I
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: keep kind of going back to. That would just worry
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: me as far as joining the market reads on either
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: of those things, on the side or the total here.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: But that's what the market read is saying, so. Market
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: read is saying Miami. Like I said, the motivation does
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: at least say Miami here. You could also play Miami
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: first five and avoid the bullpens because the bullpen edge
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: is definitely on the side of Atlanta. However, like I
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: already showed you, I think the starting pitching favors Atlanta too.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: It's one of those situations where I think the motivation
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: is in conflict with the matchup, so I pass the game.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and Detroit. Detroit could be in a letdown spot here, man.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: That was a big win for them yesterday. They're on
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: the verge of sweeping the Pirates. This is the end
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: of the season for both teams. I do think Detroit's
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: an underrated team based on their run differential being good
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: this year, although some of that was back with Scooble
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: still in their rotation. But yeah, I think Detroit's better
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: than their record looks, but Pittsburgh might show extra motivation
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: here to not get swept at the end of the
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: season here. Detroit, really yesterday was Detroit's big game.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: Big walk-off win, big emotional game with Verlander there.
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: Verlander send-off. Verlander's daughter was there.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: I think she threw out the first pitch either yesterday
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: or the day before that, and then she was there.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: I think she was in the dugout or something. She
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: might have come out to the mound when they pulled
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: them from the game, whatever it was. After a big
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: emotional game like that, I would not want to back
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: Detroit in this game, I'll tell you that. And we
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: might have the pitching edge with Pittsburgh here as well.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: I think the question is the price here. Do I
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: really want to do this? I don't know. I would
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: not want to play Pittsburgh full game, though, because I
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: don't like their bullpen. And they used everybody out of
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: the bullpen yesterday. They used seven relief pitchers yesterday. Detroit's
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen is the better one, and they only used three.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: So I would not back Pittsburgh's bullpen here against Detroit's.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: Detroit's number 13, Pittsburgh number 18. So not a huge
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: disparity there, but the rest definitely doesn't help the fact
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh's already the lesser bullpen. Pittsburgh is still the
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: better offense at number six. Detroit is number 11, which
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: is still not really that bad. Pittsburgh, I think they
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: do have the starting pitching edge here too, though. So
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: why am I not playing this?
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Maybe I should reconsider.
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: Jared Jones is pitching for Pittsburgh. I like him.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: You know that I like him. He's been good, man,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: since he's found his groove again after coming back from injury.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: He missed all of last year.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: He's really been good recently, so recent form is definitely
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: in his favor here. On the season, he's got a 3.87 ERA, 1.12 whip.
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: That's good.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good on the road, 3.54 road ERA.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Even though his opponent batting average is actually better at home,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: his ERA at home is worse. On his last four starts,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: which is all this month, he's allowed no runs in
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: three out of the four, including a one-hit seven-inning performance
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: last time against St. Louis. He's got a 35-4 strikeout
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: walk ratio this month and a 1.08 ERA this month.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: And the only start where he allowed any runs was
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: against a potent Milwaukee lineup here, which is an offense
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: that's better than Detroit's, needless to say. Jones is in
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: very good form right now. He's got a low hit
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: rate on the season. His walk rate's not too bad
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: at this point. His strikeout rate is quite high. Yeah,
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, these numbers have gotten pretty good here. 3.8
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, that's pretty solid. 10.9 strikeout per nine,
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: obviously good. Against Detroit, he hasn't really been that good, though,
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: but it's a very small sample. Four hitters have faced him.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: Riley Green is kind of the only one that's really
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: done damage here. He has two of the three hits
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: they have. including a double, the only extra base hit here.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: They have two strikeouts, one walk against them, a 333 average.
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: 844 OPS. Normally, I'd be like, yeah, I don't really
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: want to back a pitcher with numbers like that, but
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: it's such a small sample size, and he's in such
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: good form right now, and we know he's good, man,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: whereas Detroit's going with River Ryan, and I have no
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: idea what you're going to get out of him here.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: He pitched well in his first outing. This is kind
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: of why I don't really want to back Pittsburgh here,
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: because you just don't know.
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: River Ryan, he was one of.
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: The key pieces in the Scooble trade. They got him
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: from the Dodgers, and He's 28 years old, though, man.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: So it's like, is he really going to just, like,
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: is his career all of a sudden going to take off?
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. But when he pitched for the Dodgers
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: in 2024, he was not bad. He was not bad
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: in his first outing with Detroit this year. He went
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: three shutout innings. against Washington. I mean, I can't really
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: ask for much better than that. Three strikeouts, one walk.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: So he's got a zero ERA here and one whip.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has two hitters who have faced him. Cruz and
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: Reynolds are a combined one for four off him. Reynolds
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: with a single. Two strikeouts, no walks in there. Yeah,
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: I think this game is more of a first five under,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: even though I like the Pittsburgh side here as well.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: I would trust Jones more than Ryan, and it does
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: look like an emotional letdown spot for Detroit, plus Pittsburgh
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: trying to not end the season on a really shitty
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: note here. 73% of tickets, 86% of the cash on Pittsburgh.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: It looks like they have dropped in the price, though,
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: down to close to a pick-em price for the Pirates here.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: which does make it a little bit more enticing to
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: play Pittsburgh. I'm still going to agree with Pittsburgh, but
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: I would only do it in the first five. I
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: would not back their bullpen. So I would say Pittsburgh
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: first five may really still be the best way to
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: play this, but Ryan might be good too. So I
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: don't really want to do it. And the money is
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: backing the over in this game. 67% of tickets on
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: the under 79% of the cash on the over totals
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: at eight for the full game or seven and a half.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: It's a low total here, but I would prefer the
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: under for sure. I think both pitchers might pitch pretty
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: well here. So I would go first five under. Plus,
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: you've got to avoid the Pittsburgh bullpen if you're going
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: to go under, but also Ryan might not pitch that
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: deep into the game. So at least if you go
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: first five only with an under, Ryan will at least.
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: Get you probably most of the way to those five
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: innings there.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: So.
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: That's what I'd say about that, but you're going to
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: be looking at a three and a half.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: You might be able to find a four, actually, on
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: the first five under in that one, which would obviously
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: be preferable. I hate that three and a half number.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: Cleveland and Kansas City.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Cleveland, I believe they clinched the division yesterday, so they
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: have nothing to play for now.
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: They won the AL Central.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: They got a two-game lead over the White Sox now
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: because Cleveland won yesterday in another blowout. I didn't expect that.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Walker Walker really struggled early in the game, and that
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: was pretty much it. And then the Royals' bullpen was
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: also really bad in the game. But, yeah, so Cleveland
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: has nothing to play for here. Royals, you know, they're
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: a home team trying to avoid the sweep here. So
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: situation definitely favors Kansas City here. The problem is they
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: have the worst pitching everywhere. Their bullpen is worse, and
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: their starting pitcher is worse. So can you really back
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: Kansas City here? I would say probably not, even though
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: the situation says that you should. Cleveland used four relief
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Kansas City, it was kind of light usage, though.
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: Kansas City used four more heavily. We know Kansas City's
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: bullpen is bad. They're the worst in whip, second worst
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: in ERA. They're bad. One of the bottom two bullpens.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is a good bullpen. They're number 10, but I
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: think they're actually probably a little bit better than that.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: We know Cleveland's offense is putrid. They've moved up a
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: little bit to 26, but they're still not good. Kansas
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: City's 17th tie with the Red Sox. Now, that's not
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: good for the Red Sox. And San Diego here. The
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: problem is Cleveland's got Parker Messick on the mound. I
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: don't even know why they're doing that, to be honest.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess they're going to have a little
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: bit of rest before their first series starts because they
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: won their division. But still, you know, yeah, I just
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: don't know why they have one of their best pitchers
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: on the mound in this game. You'd think that they
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: would maybe skip him, get ready for the playoffs, and
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: I guess maybe they want to get him some work.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but you'd think that they'd want him
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: in like a shorter series.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: You'd think they'd want him early on in that series,
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: but I don't know.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: He's got a 2.55 ERA, 1.04 whip, although he's going
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: to be an inexperienced pitcher in the playoffs, man, and
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: experience will matter, but Messick, it might not matter for him.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: He's been good, and I don't really expect him to
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: pitch poorly in this game because he's I don't think
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: you should ever really expect him to pitch poorly unless
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: there's some real reason to do so. He's got a
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: good road ERA here, 2.19. He's been good recently as well,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: so he doesn't seem to be wearing down with all
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: the innings that he's thrown here.
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: He's still allowing very few runs here.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: Has a really good strikeout walk ratio this month, 30-5
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: with an ERA in the threes. His hit rate's really
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: low in the season. He doesn't really walk many guys.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: He strikes out a good amount of guys. Four strikeout
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: walk ratio him. 9.4 strikeout per nine. Those are good numbers.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: He's also good against Kansas City. They have 20 at-bats
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: against him. One extra base hit, a Caglione double. Four strikeouts,
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: two walks, 200 average, 523 OPS allowed. Yeah, I mean,
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: the situation definitely does not favor Cleveland. Like I said,
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: could be a letdown spot after clinching the division.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: They don't need to win this game whatsoever.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Kansas City trying to avoid the sweep, trying to at
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: least finish the season on a good note, but facing
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: Messick makes that way more difficult. Kansas City's going with
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Daniel Lynch IV, who was not good in his last start,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: even though he hasn't been that bad this year, but
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: the majority of this has been out of the bullpen. 4.13 ERA, 1.14 whip.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: So his ERA is a little bit worse than what
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: it should be based on his whip. He's got a 4.62
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: home ERA, but again, he's not really that bad. Like
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: 217 upon a batting average at home is not bad.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: He was really bad in his last start though. Here
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: at home against the White Sox, he got obliterated. So
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: he might be falling out of form here. And his
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is a concern. Just, he doesn't strike
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: anybody out. So I'm not sure that I'd really want
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: to back him here. He's definitely not the better of
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: the two pitchers. And we don't know how deep he's
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: going to go into this game. He didn't really last
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: that long in his last start. He's got a low
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: hit rate, though, so that's good. His walk rate is
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: kind of okay. His strikeout rate's really low, though. Not
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: a strikeout pitcher. He's got a 2.1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: That's bad.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: Six strikeout per nine, very unimpressive as well. Cleveland has
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: not hit him that well, though. He's got mediocre numbers
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland. It's 63 at-bats. 238 average is pretty good.
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: That's low, I mean.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: But a 764 OPS is slightly high. 12-11 strikeout walk
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: ratio is obviously not good. Too many walks in here,
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: although five of them are Jose Ramirez. Ramirez has been
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: the guy that's done the most damage against him. um
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: yeah i mean situation like i said favors the royals
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: here if you're gonna actually play the royals i would
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: say probably just do it in the first five uh
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: because i would not want to back their bullpen even
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: though in a situation like this if you're playing this
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: situation it seems like you should play the full game
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: but yeah i mean i can't bring myself to do
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: it the money is saying uh kansas city here 73
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: of tickets on cleveland 69 of the cash or kansas
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: city so like i said it's Again, it's because of
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: the situation and the motivation. Cleveland just has no reason
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: to actually try to win this game. And Cleveland's a
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: minus 130 road favorite here. They kind of need to be, though,
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: with Messick on the mound. I think they do deserve
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: to be a favorite like that here, probably. The money's
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: also backing the over 8.5.
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: I don't really see that either. I think the first
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: five under.
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's even actually the best way to play this,
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: even though he has 67% of tickets on the under,
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on the over. But Lynch's numbers
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: aren't that bad against Cleveland, and they are a weak offense.
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: We know that.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Even though this is more of a hitting ballpark now,
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: but 8.5, not a high total for the full game.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: First five, you'll probably find a 4.5. Messick, I think,
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: should do his part there. I don't know if he's
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: going to be totally focused, but it's easier for one
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: pitcher to go out there and focus than it is
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: for an entire lineup to. So... you know, you might
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: get an unfocused Cleveland lineup and a focused Messick here,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: and that would be what you want if you're going
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: to try to play some sort of under here. But yeah,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: I think the first five under might make some sense there.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: Situation heavily favors Kansas City, and I wish we could
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: do it. Like, I wish this was a walker game
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: or something, and then I might actually be doing it.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I can't back Lynch against Messick, man.
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: I can't do it.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Um, Even though in other sports, I'll go just entirely
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: on situation and fade the team that's obviously the better team,
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: but it's different, right? Baseball, the matchups matter in baseball.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: The pitcher impacts the game significantly, even though that does
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: get overrated a little bit, but it is still significant.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: Colorado at the White Sox. Colorado won the game yesterday,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: so the White Sox are locked in to the last
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: wildcard spot now, so the White Sox really don't have
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: anything to play for either. I think they're guaranteed the
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: last wildcard spot at this point, so I don't think
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: they can move up. Yeah, I'm pretty sure, yeah, the
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: Red Sox clinched the second wildcard spot two days ago. So, yeah,
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: the White Sox have nothing to play for. It'll be
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: Colorado's last game of the season while the White Sox
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: might look ahead to the playoffs. So the situation is
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: not good for the White Sox here. But I think
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: I would be more inclined to look at the total
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: in this game if I was going to do anything
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: with it. The White Sox used six relief pitchers yesterday,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: so that's a lot of usage. Even though their bullpen
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: is normally okay, Colorado only used two, but they are
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: not a good bullpen. Colorado is... 26th in bullpen. White
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: Sox are number 16. But I think you could fade
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: both bullpens here. You got one bad bullpen and one
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: used bullpen here. The offenses are pretty good. So you
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: kind of see where I'm going with this total lean here.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Rockies are fifth in offense. White Sox ninth tie with Miami.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: Rockies have Kyle Freeland pitching. He's not very good. 6.58 ERA, 1.52 whip.
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: He's actually kind of worse on the road.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: 6.96 road ERA. Worse than what it is at home,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: which is ridiculous. He's not in good form either. He
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: hasn't made it past four innings in any of his
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: last three outings. He's allowed at least three runs in
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: all those appearances. Yeah, he's obviously not pitching well at all.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: this month in two outings he's allowed more runs than
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: the innings pitched low strikeout rate he just like I
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: said he serves up batting practice basically he allows a
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: ton of hits he allows a lot of home runs
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: he doesn't walk anybody that's just because he's throwing like
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: meatballs basically right over the plate and his strikeout rate
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: is not really that good either 3.7 strikeout walk ratio. Hilarious,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: because that's not that bad. But it's, again, because he
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: walks basically nobody. But in his case, it's not a
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: good thing. 7.3 strikeout per nine is not great. His
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: numbers against the White Sox are actually not bad, though.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: They have 52 at-bats against some of the only six
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: hitters that face him. And 28 of those at-bats are FOM, FAM.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: They have a 20-to-3 strikeout walk ratio here. So Freeland
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: actually has good numbers against these guys. 212 average, a
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: lot of 601 OPS. So, you know... I mean, I
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: guess in a situation like this, maybe he is slightly backable.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: I still wouldn't want to do it.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: This game still looks like an over to me, but
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers and the home road splits for K
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: don't really back that, so I don't really want to
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: do it. Anthony K pitching for the White Sox, I
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: don't think he's that good. 4.53 ERA, 1.37 whip. I
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: don't expect much from the White Sox in the playoffs, man,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: even though they're going to be free-rolling and nobody's going
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: to really expect much out of them, but I don't
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: like their pitching rotation. They lack experience, so I don't
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: think they're going to last long in the playoffs. Anthony Kaye, 3.86
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: home ERA, though, so he is better at home. So
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: like I said, there is that. He's more backable at home,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: but he's not pitching well right now, man. He hasn't
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: made it five innings in any of his last six appearances.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: His ERA over that span has been ugly, like in
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: the neighborhood of seven, basically, over that span. He's getting
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: hit hard. I mean, things are not going well for
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: him here. His team's lost most of those games. The
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: one that they won was because they scored 14 against
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, and they won 14-11. He didn't even get
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: a win in that one because he didn't go five innings,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: but his team won. He's got a high hit rate.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: His home run rate's not very good. His walk rate's
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: kind of high. His strikeout rate's not good either. These
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: numbers are not good. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio's not good. 7.4
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, not really that good. Colorado's never faced
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: him before. So there's unfamiliarity here, but he's a junk
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: pitcher basically in his 30s. So what do you expect?
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: I don't expect much out of him. Again, I still
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: think the over is the way to look in this game,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: but I don't really want to do it because K
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: is better at home and Freeland somehow has good numbers
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox, but the money does indicate towards
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: the over here. 79% of tickets on the under, which
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: makes no sense. I don't think the public is playing
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: the under here. Even though their mindset might be, well,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: these teams aren't really that good, so play the under.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: But that's the wrong way to think about baseball. A
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: lot of the reason why these teams are bad is
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: because their pitching sucks. 81% of the cash on the over.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: Totals at 8.5%. Pretty reasonable total there. I think the
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: over is the best approach in this one. I don't
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: want to do it, like I said, for the reasons
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: I already stated, but 90% of the tickets are on
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: the White Sox, 76% of the cash on Colorado.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: I'd probably agree with that.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, Freeland at least has some history that's actually
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: positive against the White Sox. And Kay, I mean, he
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: could do bad potentially here. And again, the White Sox
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: have no reason to show up here because they're locked
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: into their playoff spot. They're going to the playoffs for
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: the first time in a long time. This is a
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: team that was historically bad the last couple of years,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: along with Colorado, by the way. So Colorado might want to,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: you know, Deal the White Sox a loss, another loss here,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? Maybe they're resentful about the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: White Sox having this huge leap forward this season while
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: the Rockies have not done that whatsoever. But yeah, money
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: coming in towards Colorado. I think if you're going to
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: back Colorado, I would only do it in the first five, though, probably.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: But again.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: the White Sox bullpen isn't in great shape either. And
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: if you're back in Colorado, you're kind of doing it
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: because of the situation again, because the White Sox don't
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: need to win. The White Sox dropped from a minus
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: two 20 money line favorite down into the minus one seventies.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: So this line has moved towards Colorado here for sure.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: Do with all that info what you want, man. I
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: still think the over is the better approach there. Um,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: All right, we're around an hour. I usually cut it
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: with five games left. We have four games left here
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: and then WNBA playoffs to talk about. I'm going to
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: take a break right now.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: I'll be right back. Yep, inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday. 1-5.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: With the slump continuing.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season, man.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: What can slump do? Then I'm on and the slump continues.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: Who even knows, man. I don't know what day it
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: possibly have.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: Back with you as I always am.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: not go well for me. 0-5, the worst month that
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: I've ever had in my 18 years doing this.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right, the
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: next game is St. Louis and Milwaukee. Milwaukee just keeps winning, man.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you. They don't even
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: need to win.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: They already have the one seed in the NL, but
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: they keep winning anyway.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: Maybe St. Louis shows up with a little extra motivation
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: here to try to avoid the sweep. Problem with that
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: is Milwaukee's got the bye, so they have a lot
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: of time off after this. So they're like, fuck it.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: We're going to pitch Miz in this game anyway. Get
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: him another start, although... You got to think they're probably
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: not going to let him go that long in this game.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: They don't want to overwork him leading into the playoffs.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: So I think this is going to be like kind
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: of a tune-up for Mizurowski here. They might pull him
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: out of the game after like three innings or something here.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? So be aware of that.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: So maybe there is hope for St.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: Louis here because I don't think they're going to do
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: much against him. Milwaukee used four relief pitchers yesterday, but
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: the problem is, yeah, Milwaukee's bullpen is also better than St. Louis'. St.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: Louis used two. Milwaukee is number five, but like I said,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: I put them at number three in bullpen. St. Louis
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: is number 22. They are not good. Milwaukee is also
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They're all the way up to number three.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: This Milwaukee team is playing really well. They're going to
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: be a threat for sure in the playoffs. I wouldn't
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: mind if they won the whole thing, man. I don't
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: think many people would mind that, really, because, you know,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: fuck the Dodgers, fuck the Yankees, fuck all the usual teams.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: Obviously, I'll root for the Red Sox as a Red Sox.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: Fan, but, you know, as long as it's not the Yankees,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: and I would hope that it's not the Dodgers either,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: that's what I'll say. What else? Oh, yeah, St. Louis' offense,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: they suck. They're 27th tied with Seattle. If you're hitting
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: the same as Seattle, obviously there's something wrong there. Andre
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: Payante is pitching for St. Louis. He's not that bad,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: a 3.61 ERA, 1.24 whip.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: He is better on the road as well.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: I still have not really figured out why since their
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: home stadium is more pitcher-friendly, but 2.65 road ERA. He
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: was pretty good in his last start against Pittsburgh. Helped
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: him to one run. In fact, three out of four
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: starts this month, he's held the opponent to one earned run.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: The one bad start was at home. He got obliterated
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: by San Francisco, and he'd faced San Francisco at the
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: start before that, too. So maybe they just figured him out,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: and they teed off on him in the next start.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I think he did get a little
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: bit unlucky in that start, too, though. The problem with
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: Payante is he doesn't strike anybody out. That's kind of
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: the issue with him, although he is generally pitching okay here.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: He's got a reasonable hit rate. His walk rate's not
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: that bad. Strikeout rate is really low, though. Strikeout walk
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: ratio 2.2 is not good. 6.1 Ks per nine, not
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: really that good. So he's not a strikeout pitcher. But still,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: he's been fairly effective this year. He's not good against
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: the Brewers, though, and that's the other problem. If you
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: really want to try to back St. Louis, which, you know,
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: the situation probably does favor St. Louis, but the pitching
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: matchup obviously does not. 105 at-bats, 15-15 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: for Payante against the Brewers, 333 average, allowed 893 OPS.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: Those numbers are all bad, so.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I won't be backing St. Louis here.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: Jacob Mizurowski pitching for the Brewers, like I said. I
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: think they're going to take him out of the game
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: probably early, but he's got a 1.86 ERA,. 8 whip.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: He's been really good at home, 1.61 home ERA. He's
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: going to win the Cy Young. They pulled him after
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: three innings last time, so it does seem like they're
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: easing him out of the regular season and getting him
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: ready for the playoffs here.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: Playoffs.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: But he went three shutout innings against Baltimore last time out,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: so yeah, he's continuing to pitch really well. He hasn't
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: allowed any runs in his last eight innings. of work
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: really low hit rate low walk rate high strikeout rate
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: you know all that 5.9 strikeout walk ratio 13.1 Ks
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: for nine. I'm assuming it's the best out of any
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher in baseball here with enough innings to qualify
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: at least. He's also pretty much completely dominant against St.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: Louis as that probably comes as no surprise. 75 at bats. Yeah,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: 147 average allowed, 480 OPS. So sample size getting up
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: there in size and still he's been really good. But again,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: I think he'll only go about three innings here, but
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: I just don't see a way to really back St.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: Louis here, even though The situation might say that you
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: should do it. I don't see how you can. Payante
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: doesn't have the matchup edge. St. Louis' bullpen doesn't have
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: the matchup edge. So, like, where's the edge here? The
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: money is coming in that way. 94% of tickets on Milwaukee,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: 65% of the cash. They're a really heavy favorite, minus 250.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I get it.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Like, I understand that Milwaukee doesn't even need to win
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: this game, but it's just, you know, you're going to
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: put Mizzy Rousey out there.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: It's not like he's just going to go out there
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: and try to suck. You know what I mean?
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: If you're going to put him on the mound, he's
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: going to try to get his work in and pitch well,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: you know.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: It's a competition still, after all.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: Money's coming in on the over seven, seven and a half.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: And you know what? You know, maybe that's actually the
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: better way to play this because Pianti's bad against Milwaukee.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: St.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: Louis' bullpen is bad. Mizurowski is, it's misleading kind of
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: that he's the starter here because I think he's going
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: to be out of the game earlier. But the problem
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: is Milwaukee's bullpen is still pretty good here.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: And St.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: Louis' offense is ass.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: So you know what?
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this seems kind of obvious, though.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: The better way to play this game is probably Milwaukee
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: team total over, right? I mean, Mizurowski might not be
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: in the game that long, so take that mystery out.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: Just go with Milwaukee to do what they usually do
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: and beat up on Payante and then St. Louis' bad bullpen.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: You could take Milwaukee over their team total, and they
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: still might not cover a run line if they go
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: over their team total. Full game total is low, although
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: that would worry me a little bit because the Osweggers
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: are telling you they think it's going to be a
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: low scoring game. And that total is like teetering on
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: six and a half here. Um, but again, Mizurowski is,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: is making that total lower than it should be, I think. Right.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: Because he's, again, I think he's probably only going to
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: go about.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: Three innings here.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: And Payante, again, his numbers look, uh, okay, but like
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers are really not good.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: Um, Yeah, I think over does kind of make sense
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: in this game, or Milwaukee's team total over. If you
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: go Milwaukee's team total over, you'll probably need them to
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: get to five here, but that doesn't.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: Seem unreasonable, really.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: All right. Texas and Minnesota, as I talked about a
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: little while ago. I think Texas is in a better, uh,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: spot because they can't control their own destiny.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: So Houston is tied with them.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: Houston has the tiebreaker Houston being in that we win
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: and we're in scenario, I think puts you in a
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: bad head space because you're kind of relying on that. Well,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: even if we don't win, you know, we could still
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: get there because Texas could lose whatever these teams, these
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: games were all being played at the same time. So
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: you can't really, um, you know, nothing's going to be
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: determined before you play. You know what I mean? Um, Texas,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: I think the spot like sets up better for them
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: because they're not in a win and in scenario. They
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: need to win, but they also need Houston to lose
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: to win this division here. And that's how either team
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: is going to be able to make the playoffs here.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: Only one of them is going to get in. So yeah, Texas,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: I think they can play a little bit looser because
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: they don't control their own destiny here.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: So I like that for Texas. And I do actually
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: like Texas in this game.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: Minnesota, I'm They've won one out of the two games here.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: Minnesota won the first game and obliterated Jacob DeGrom. I
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: don't know how that happened, but Texas was able to
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: get the win yesterday. And I would prefer Texas in
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: this game. I don't love Texas' bullpen. They used four
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: guys yesterday. Minnesota's a really bad bullpen, though. They used
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: three guys yesterday. Minnesota's number 28. Texas is number 19.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: You could maybe just avoid both bullpens here and go
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: with Texas' first five if you want to. Uh, hitting wise, uh,
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is the better team. Although I think they've dropped
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit recently.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: Where are they at?
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: Let me say Minnesota is yeah. 16th now. So they
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: have fallen off offensively a bit. Texas is number 20.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: Not really that good. Texas has got McKenzie Gore on
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: the mound. He's not that bad. The only problem is
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: that backing him on the road is kind of an
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: issue because he's not good on the road. He's got
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: a 4.59 ERA, 1.34 whip. I know those are really
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: mediocre numbers, but it's because he sucks on the road. 5.79
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: road ERA, and yeah, that's the problem. He's on the
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: road here. I get it. So I don't really think
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: I can get there with backing him. I mean, I
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: would say he's kind of been okay recently, but not really.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: Like his last start was pretty good against the Mets,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: although they still wound up losing that game. And I
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: don't even think I got the first five lean that
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: I had in that game correct. That was at home
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: for him, but he wasn't pitching well leading into that game.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: And this month he has 14 walks and nine strikeouts
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: in 20 and a third innings. And for a guy
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: that usually is a strikeout pitcher, there's something wrong with
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: him right now. So I just really can't do it.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: I can't back him here, man. His hit rate is
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: fine on the season, though. His walk rate is definitely
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: too high. His strikeout rate is high on the season,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: so I don't know what's going on with his strikeout
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: rate recently. He's got a 2.5 strikeout walk ratio, and
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: that's because his walk rate is way too high.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: That's always been the case with him, though.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: 9.2 strikeout per nine is all right.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: But again.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with him. His strikeout
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: rates dropped significantly recently, and his walk rate has remained
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: the same.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: Not very good, so that's a problem.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: However, he is good against Minnesota in 28 career at-bats.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: Most of their guys have seen him before.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: 143 average allowed, 512 OPS, six to three strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: That's not good, but the rest of these numbers are good.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: So Gore at least does have good matchup numbers here,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: but he's bad on the road and he's in bad
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: current form. So I don't know if I really could
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: trust him. Dean Creamer is getting the start for Minnesota.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: He's got the better whip out of the two pitchers. 4.97
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: ERA doesn't really look good, but 1.2 whip is not
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: really that bad. Creamer is a little bit better at home, 4.71
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: home ERA, and he's in better form right now. He's
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: been pretty good over his last few starts. Two or
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs allowed in each of them. One of
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: them was against the Yankees. Last start, he had a
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: six-inning shutout against Anaheim, one hit allowed. I mean, Anaheim sucks,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: but still, good start from him there. So Creamer's in
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: the better form here. He's got a pretty low hit rate.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not that bad. Strikeout rate is also okay,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: so you can make the argument he's actually.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: Better than Gore.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: 2.8 strikeout walk ratio, 8.9 strikeout per nine, not too
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: bad there. Creamer against Texas is not good, though, so
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers definitely don't support him. 31 at-bats, 323 average,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: allowed 1139 OPS, 7-8 strikeout walk ratio, so that's not good. So, while,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: you know, I was thinking Texas might be the right
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: side here, the money is coming in on them.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: 76% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: Texas... has more motivation here. I mean, they're trying to
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. They're in that spot where they don't
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: control their own destiny, which I think is a positive
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: because it's like you got to win, but you also
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: need Houston to lose here. You know what I mean?
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: And it might actually happen, to be honest. There's definitely
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: a possibility that actually does happen here. You're looking at
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: a pick and price based on Texas here, which maybe
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: makes it a little bit too easy to take Texas,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: but even so, I kind.
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: Of lean that way.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: I would maybe go first five on it though. Cause
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: I don't like their bullpen enough. Although Minnesota is even worse,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: but yeah, Texas first five might make some sense. But again,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, you saw what my concerns were with, uh,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: with it, like creamer in the better current form and
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: home road splits favor creamer as well. So those things
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: worry me about that opinion there. Anaheim at Seattle, Seattle
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: finally overcome their, uh, I don't know, dream crusher mindset,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: and they got a win yesterday at least. But who
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: knows what's going to happen in this game. This is
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: a game where neither team has anything to play for here.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: Maybe Anaheim has a little bit more motivation here because
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: they knew they weren't going to go anywhere, whereas Seattle
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: is still a very disappointed team. Anaheim used two relief
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Seattle used five. Seattle's bullpen has been a
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: big disappointment this year too. Really, everything about Seattle has
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: been a disappointment. Their starting pitching hasn't really been as
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: good this year. which is, it's still been their kind
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: of bright spot, though, because their bullpen and their hitting
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: have been pretty bad. Seattle's 21st in bullpen, not very good.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: Anaheim 23rd, barely any worse than Seattle, though they're both
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: not really good bullpens. They're both bad offenses, too. Seattle 27th,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: tie with St.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is dead last, 30th. Yusei Kikuchi is pitching for Anaheim.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: He missed most of the season with an injury. His
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: numbers on the season are not good. 4.88 ERA. 1.55
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: whip is really bad. And we know what the thing
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: is with him. He's not good on the road. 5.36
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He's bad on the road.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: That seems to always be the case.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: However, he actually pitched okay last time out at the
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: A's Stadium, which is a hitter-friendly stadium, of course. He
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: held them to two runs.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: In five and a third innings. That's not that bad.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: Kikuchi, though, prior to that start, he was walking way
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: too many guys since he came back from injury. His walks,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're always kind of an issue with him,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: but yeah, his walks have been an issue recently. Now,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: at least for him, he's pitching in a more pitcher-friendly
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: park against Seattle. The problem is he faced Seattle in
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: the start before that A's start. in Anaheim, which is
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: not exactly a hitter-friendly park, and Seattle crushed him in
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: that start. He was awful in that start. He had
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: a ton of walks, too, so that's not a good sign.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate, a high walk rate.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is okay. I mean, that's the usual
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: with him, the usual. He's got a 2.1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: That's not good. 8.6 strikeout per nine. That's okay. His
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: numbers against Seattle are very mediocre, and 115 at-bats, 252
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: average allowed, 761 OPS. It's not too bad, but it's
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: not great either. 29 to 11 strikeout walk ratio. I
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: would not really trust Kikuchi here. He's bad on the road.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: He was bad against Seattle two starts ago, and he's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: not really particularly good against them. Logan Gilbert is the
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: better pitcher. He is pitching for Seattle here. 3.81 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: We know he's had issues at home this year, though. 4.58
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: home ERA. I backed the under the last time he
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: pitched at home, and he pitched very poorly. I thought
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: he'd come around because most of his recent home starts
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: were actually good.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: But he's still got some issues here, man.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: And for whatever reason, 25 of the 29 home runs
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: he's allowed this year have come at home in this stadium,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: which is not a home run friendly stadium. I don't
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: know what the deal is with him, but still, the
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: fact remains that he's only had like two bad starts
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: at home over the last couple months, though. So he
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: is still pitching better at home than he was earlier
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: in the season. That last start was really bad, though,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: and that's not a good indicator as far as his
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: current form. But leading into that start, he was pitching well.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: He had two really good starts in a row prior
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: to that, and one of them was at home. But
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: his two bad recent home starts have both come this month, though.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: And it's two of his last three home starts against
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: the A's in Houston. So that's not great. But he
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: did do well against Anaheim, the start prior to the
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: Houston one in that Anaheim series. He might do well
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: here because Anaheim's a really bad offense. He's got a
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. His walk rate is okay. His strikeout
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: rate's high. So those numbers are all good. It's just
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: the home run rate has been way too high for
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: him at home specifically this year. I don't know what
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: the deal is with him. His strikeout walk ratio has
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: gone down this year a bit too, though. 4.1.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: He was better than that the last couple years.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: 9.7 Ks per nine is still not bad. I mean,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: those numbers are still not bad. Gilbert is usually pretty
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: good against Anaheim. 60 career at-bats.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: 217 average allowed is really low.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: 732 OPS isn't that good, though, because they do a
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: four home runs off him. Two of them are trout, though,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: so it's like if you can pitch around trout, the
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: only other guy in this lineup that really does much
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: damage is Josh Lowe. They have 16 strikeouts and four
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: walks against him, so that ratio is pretty good for him.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this man. Seattle's
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: definitely going to be too heavy of a favorite here.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: They're about minus 170 or so on the money line here,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: and that number's dropped a little bit. 89% of tickets
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: on Seattle, 70% of the cash on Anaheim, so the
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: money's backing Anaheim here. I don't think I'd want to
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: do that, though. Gilbert is the better pitcher of a Kikuchi, so...
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know about that. I mean, the money is
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: heavily indicating on the over. It's a low total though, seven,
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. And normally you might look at
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: this and think, well, this should be a Seattle game
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: because Gilbert's better than Kikuchi. But I don't know.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, they both have somewhat questionable matchup numbers here.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: Kikuchi we know is not good on the road. Gilbert
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: we know is not that good at home. The bullpens
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: are not that good. So that seven, I mean, there's
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: not a lot of leeway there with that seven. So
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: maybe the over does make sense. Maybe that's the.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: Better way to play this game.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: It's to take the over.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: I don't have a great read for the side there.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, when it's a game where there's really no
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: motivation necessarily for either team.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: So do with that what you want.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: The last game does have some motivation involved Arizona at
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: San Diego. As I pointed out earlier in the show,
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: Arizona and Philadelphia are fighting for the last wildcard spot. Arizona,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: I believe has the tiebreaker. So they're behind by one
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: game right now, but if Philly loses and Arizona wins,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: Arizona will get in and Philly will be out, which
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: is kind of insane to think about. Although I did
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: say earlier in the season, Philadelphia, their run differential is
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: actually not very good.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: It's just that Philadelphia has really good starting pitching.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: Um, We'll see. Now here's the thing. The thing I
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: like about Arizona is just like I said with Texas,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: Arizona does not control their own destiny like Philadelphia does
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: and Houston does. Those teams are kind of in a
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: worse mental spot because they control their own destiny and
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: it becomes this thing all you think about is winning.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 3: Like all we need to do is win here. You
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? Win and we're in.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: And also they have in the back of their mind,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: even if we lose, we can still get in. Whereas
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: for Arizona, it's yeah, you got to win, but also
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: you need help. So it's like out of your hands,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean?
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 3: It's up to the fates.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: So I think that's a better mental spot to be in.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: It's been proven that that's the case, especially in the
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: NFL and things like that. San Diego, they pretty much
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: don't really have anything to play for here, even though
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: this is a big divisional series, whatever. But San Diego's
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: already in one of the wildcard spots. I think they
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: might have maybe seeding to still play for. It's like
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: them versus the Cubs right now. I thought it was
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: going to be inevitable that it was going to be
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: Cubs and Philly, but... um not so fast because san
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: diego is going to be one of those top two
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: wild cards now but arizona does have more to play
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: for here because this is their playoff lives here i
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: don't think san diego if they're playing for seeding that's
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: all they're playing for i don't think they care about
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: that that much they're already into the playoffs um even
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: though yeah they'd get the home field if they were
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: able to get that top wild card but whatever um
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: Arizona used a ton of relief pitchers yesterday. They used seven,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: so I would not back their bullpen here. San Diego
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: did use four, and they used some of their better relievers.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: But they're the better bullpen. Arizona's ranked sixth. San Diego's
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: ranked ninth, but I don't buy into that. Arizona's ERA
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: is four. San Diego's three and a half. So San
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: Diego's the better bullpen here and slightly more rested. Arizona's
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: been the better offense recently. They're number 12, tied with
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: the A's. San Diego's tied with the Red Sox in
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: Kansas City at 17th. Arizona probably slightly better there. This
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: is going to be a pitcher-friendly park here. I do
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: think Arizona has the better pitcher on the mound here, though.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: So that's a good sign for Arizona. They got Michael
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: Soraka pitching. He's pretty good. 3.31 ERA, 1.09 whip, although
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: he's not as good on the road. 4.11 road ERA,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: which is weird because Arizona's a pitcher-friendly stadium, or Arizona's
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: a hitter-friendly stadium, excuse me. But San Diego's pitcher-friendly, so
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: I do think he is gonna pitch well here. He's
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: in good form right now. Last two starts, he went
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: five-plus innings in each of them. One was in Coors Field,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: and he allowed one earned run in each of them
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: and had 15 strikeouts in two walks.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, he's in good form.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: He came back from injury in August. He struggled a bit.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: I think they skipped one of his starts or whatever,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: and in September, he's been pretty good. He's got a
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, low walk rate, a pretty high strikeout rate,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: so all those numbers are good. 4.1 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: is good. 8.9 strikeout per nine is not bad either.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: Not too bad. His numbers against San Diego are pretty good.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: 31 career at bats. They have a 161 average against him.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: 429 OPS. One extra base hit, a double from Tatis.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: And he has three out of the five hits that
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: the entire team has against him. Nine strikeouts, three walks
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: here overall. I think Soraka actually should pitch well here.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: He's in better form right now. He's got the good
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: numbers against San Diego. It's a pitcher-friendly park, so I'm
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: not as worried about him pitching poorly on the road.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: Randy Vasquez getting the start for San Diego. He is
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: not that good, but... He's kind of been serviceable this year, 4.01 ERA, 1.3 whip,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: and his team has been winning games where he's been
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: out there. But the problem is they've used him as
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: like an opener recently, and that might be what they're
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: doing again here. I think if we're going to play
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: this game, you should pick Soraka must start for Arizona,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: but don't pick a starter for San Diego because Vasquez
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: might come in after an opener or something. Last handful
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: of starts, he has not had a starter's workload. He's
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: only gone like one, two winnings in most of them. So, yeah,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: I don't love that for San Diego. Vasquez does still
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: have a hit rate that's too high here, although his
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: walk rate's gone way down. So he used to have
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: walk problems. He's fixed those, but he's become way too hittable.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout rate is still not good, so that's
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: not good. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is not impressive. 5.7
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: strikeout per night is very unimpressive. Vasquez, though, against the D-backs,
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: he's not really that bad. 73 career at-bats, 2 career at-bats.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: 233 batting average allowed, 670 OPS, 6-7 strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: not really that good. I still lean Arizona in this game, though.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: The money is agreeing with that, although they are public
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: as well. 79% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: They're about a minus 140 favorite, though. I think Arizona
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: first five is the way to play this. You'd have
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: to lay the half run, probably, though, to get that
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: price down with Arizona in the first five, but Soraka
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: to have the lead over Vasquez and some bullpen arms.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: With Arizona being more motivated, Arizona should be.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 3: Able to do that, you would think.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: So minus the half run first five would probably be
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: how I would play this. The money's back in the
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: full game over, over the eight, eight and a half.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's more of an under to me
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: in the first five at least though. With both these
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: pitchers at least having good matchup numbers, maybe the first
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: five under makes sense. I don't really love Arizona's bullpen usage,
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: so I think keeping the under to the first five
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: might make sense there, but I think Arizona first five
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: is the way to play that. All right, I know
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: I'm treading lightly with baseball here today. I don't really
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: love the price there. All right, we have WNBA playoffs
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: starting here. First game up at 2 p.m. in the
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: afternoon here. Eastern is the number eight seed versus the
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: number one seed, which is New York and Minnesota. And
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: like I mentioned, New York is not a pushover. Usually
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: the number eight seed is just going to get completely
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: steamrolled by the number one seed. I don't really think
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: that's the case in this series here with New York
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: and Minnesota. New York is a fairly strong team. They're
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: one of the stronger eight seeds we've seen in a while.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: However.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: They're not that good on the road. They've been without Sabali,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: who's one of their better players. She's been out for
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: quite a while now, so they do not have her here.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: They're not that good on the road. Minnesota is a
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: pretty strong home team. Miles is back for Minnesota, so
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's not really dealing with any significant injuries here. If
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: you look at the regular season matchup, though, the Liberty
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: actually won two out of the three games, believe it
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: or not. Um, the Liberty one at home, uh, back
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: in July, then Minnesota one at home after that Liberty
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: won that first game by double digits and Minnesota only
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: one at home by five. Then the Liberty one again
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: at Minnesota, not long ago by 12. So where do
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: we go here? Like, is that game misleading? I think
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: maybe it is because Minnesota really didn't have that much
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: to play for in that game. Um, So, you know,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: Minnesota might come out and be in like a zigzag
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: type of spot here, right? Like they might look at
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: that game and look at what went wrong in that
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: game and fix it.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: So that might be an indicator towards Minnesota here. But
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: the problem, if you like Minnesota here, is Minnesota is
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: like a seven and a half point favorite here. And
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: they have not covered that number in any game against
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: the Liberty this year. That would worry me as far
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: as backing Minnesota here, man. I'm not going to have
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: any plays in the WNBA here, but the money is
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: strongly indicating.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: On New York here.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: 54% of tickets on Minnesota, 83% of the cash on
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: the Liberty. Minnesota's probably not excited that they drew this matchup, man.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: And while I do think Minnesota's going to get through
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: the series, I picked them to win the championship, but
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: they do have some minefields here. If they have to
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: face Atlanta next, that's not going to be that easy either.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: But you know what my upset pick was in my bracket,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: and it's not looking good as far as the market
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: reading game one because I had Indiana. But I kind
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: of still stick by that. But 83% of the cash
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: on New York here, 54% of tickets on Minnesota. It's
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: a seven and a half point line here. The total
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: is not particularly high. I mean, a lot of playoff
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: games are going to go under. Game ones tend to
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: go under because, you know, the offenses have had a
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: little bit of rest to kind of cool off a
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: little bit. The defenses are rested and ready to go,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: and teams kind of play it close to the vest,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: and it's more of an intense defensive game, you know
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: what I mean, in the playoffs. So a lot of
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: times game ones tend to go under, but I think
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: it makes sense at least. I'm not really a totals guy.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: I really want to deal with it here, although sometimes
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: I will play zigzag totals in playoffs. I'll do it
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: occasionally in the NBA and stuff. Yeah, this game, I'll
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: probably agree with the lead to New York in this one, though,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: even though they did just beat Minnesota here by double digits,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: and Minnesota might fix what went wrong there. New York
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: has just played well against them, too, so asking Minnesota
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: to cover a number like that, not something I want
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: to do. I don't really think they're going to lose
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: the game, though. I'm Indiana Vegas is the next game
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: up at 4 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: These games are both on ABC.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: This is interesting, too, and as I pointed out, Vegas
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: has actually not been that good at home. They're only
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: 15-7 at home, which is not that dominant, although I
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: think that's similar to what, I think the Lynx were
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: also that. Indiana's not great on the road either, though,
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: but the thing about this is Indiana has really had
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: Vegas' number this year. Indiana's 2-1 against Vegas, and they
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: absolutely annihilated Vegas in both games in Vegas. Indiana went
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: in there and just mopped the floor with them. They
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: won one game by 18, and they won the other
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: game by 34. So this Indiana team, they seem to
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: match up really well against Vegas for whatever reason. And
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: then the only game they lost was at home, but
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: it was an overtime loss. So Vegas has not beaten
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: Indiana in regulation this entire season. And Kaitlyn Clark looks
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: like she's a game-time decision, but I assume she is
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: going to go in this game. Not really any other
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: injuries to be aware of in this game here. Yeah,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: it's interesting, but I liked Indiana. You can see why
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: I liked Indiana to sneak through the series here as
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: my one upset pick in my bracket here. And all
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: the experts have links over aces in the final. You
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? And I understand Vegas won the
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: championship last year, but I think they drew a really
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: bad matchup in this series. This is the three versus
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: six series, by the way. Vegas wound up with a
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: three seed. although everybody is putting them past Golden State,
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: and I did not do that in my bracket. I
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: had Golden State getting through just because I thought Indiana
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: was a threat to Vegas here, but in this market read,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: it looks like Indiana is not. the side in this game.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: 71% of tickets, 69% of the cash. And they look
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: like a dreaded public underdog in this one with Vegas
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: at minus three and a half. But I don't even
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: think the public digs into it that much. I don't
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: even think they're going to look and see, oh my God.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: You know, Indiana.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: Maybe they will. Oh my god, Indiana killed Vegas both
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: times they played here this year.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 3: But I don't think it's that misleading.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe the final scores were a little bit too skewed,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: but still, Indiana has absolutely proven they can certainly beat
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: this Vegas team this year. It seems like there might
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: be kind of a matchup problem for Vegas against this
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: Indiana team. Yeah, I mean, I still kind of stick
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: by that. I'm not going to come in and play
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: Vegas in this game. I'm just not going to do it. So,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm going to wait until the game 2s,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: and we might have some zigzag spots here, but the
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: market read is saying to lay the points with Vegas.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 3: I would not want to do it for the reasons
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 3: I already stated.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: I think Indiana has a real chance in this series,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: so that's what I think. All right, Amazon Prime, 7 p.m.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: The 4-5 matchup is Washington and Atlanta. Atlanta's the better
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: team here, but the thing is, this is going to
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: be a defensive battle. I think both these teams are
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: more defensive teams, so I like the under in this game. Really,
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: that might be the best play on the entire board,
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: to be honest, for the WNBA. The money is agreeing
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: with that. 67% of tickets, 92% of the cash on
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: the under. The total's at 164.5, so the oddsmakers are
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: telling you they're expecting a low-scoring game here. The Golden
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: State game is even lower than that. Indiana-Vegas, of course,
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: is a really high total because both those teams are
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: going to speed up the pace there. But Indiana loves
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: playing fast-paced, so it is what it is in that game.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: Atlanta finished the season on a really hot note, but
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: maybe entering the playoffs might kind of hurt that momentum.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: But Washington also ended on a hot note too, but
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: they beat some bad teams at the end of the season.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: But this Washington team, they were really good defensively, okay?
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: So I think Washington could cover. If you think it's
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: going to be an under type of game and it's
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: going to be a defensive battle, that might mean the
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: underdog can hang around in this one. Atlanta's a seven
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. The money is agreeing.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: With Washington here.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: 55% of tickets on Atlanta, 83% of the cash on Washington.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: I do agree with that, although I probably prefer under
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: in this game to anything else, but to really anything
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: else on the board here. But I would not disagree
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: with Washington covering in this game either. I think a
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: defensive battle, the underdog usually is live in a game
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: like that. However, Atlanta's got more experience, and experience matters,
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: by the way. For New York and Minnesota, both of
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: those teams have plenty of experience, so that's not going
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: to be an advantage to one team or the other here.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: Although Minnesota really might be a little bit resentful because
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: if you remember two years ago, I believe the Liberty
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: won the championship against Minnesota, and Minnesota got screwed out
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: of that championship on a bad call, which they should
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: have won it two years ago. So Minnesota still probably
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: holds a grudge. So I think Minnesota is going to
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: find a way to win that series, at least to
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: stick it to the Liberty. They finally have a chance
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: at playoff revenge against the Liberty, which I don't think
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: they've had since then. I don't think they've matched up
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs since then.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: Although I could be wrong.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: And yes, Vegas obviously does have an experience edge against Indiana.
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: So we'll point that out.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: Although Indiana was in the playoffs last year and I,
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: they might've won one series to Indiana. So they're, they're
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: not totally an experience like Caitlin Clark, et cetera. Like,
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: you know, they at least have a little bit of
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: experience under their belt now. So I think they, could
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: possibly take that step and beat Vegas this time. And
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: they look like they have a good matchup there. But anyway,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: the market read is saying Vegas. Vegas is still the
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: more experienced team there. Atlanta is the more experienced team
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: over Washington. Even though Angel Reese is still not a
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: very experienced player, though, for Atlanta. And she is one
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: of their big pieces. I still think the experience does
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: help Atlanta a little bit there. But I would name
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: Washington plus the points. Then we have USA Network, CNBC.
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: You want to talk about inexperienced Dallas. Very young, up-and-coming team.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: I think this is their first playoff berth. I tend
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: to think it's not going to go that well for them, man.
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: This Golden State team, they kind of took a step
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: forward last year, and I believe they made the playoffs
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: last year. I think they're taking another step this year.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're the number two seed in the playoffs
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: this year. And I think that their side of the
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: bracket actually sets up reasonably well for them. this year
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: for them to advance a little bit further this year.
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: This is a Golden State team that's not to be
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: messed with. They play like a weird style of offense
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: that can throw defenses off. Dallas is not a very
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: good defense. Golden State is a good defense, so they're
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: definitely the better defense here. This total's really low at 154.5
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: or so, but when the total's that low, you don't
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: really want to lay the points either. However, Dallas has
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: 67% of tickets and only 64%.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 3: Of the cash on them.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: I think the public kind of, they kind of like
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: Dallas more because Dallas is the team that has the
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: players that you can name, You can name Paige Beckers.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: She was their draft pick two years ago. Everybody knows
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: her name. Everybody knows her name. Nobody can name a
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: player on Golden State. Even I can't name a player
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: on Golden State. I like to back teams like that
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: where the oddsmakers are telling you Golden State's the better team.
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: They're a 7.5 point favorite here. While I don't like
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: laying favorite prices with a really low total like this
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: at 154, If this game's going to be lower scoring,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: I think that is what Golden State wants, though. Like
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: I said, they're the better defense here. So a lower
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: scoring game, I think, actually helps Golden State. The money
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: is coming in on the under here. And I do
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: think it's a rare situation where the under is actually
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: correlated to the favorite here. I don't really like Dallas.
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: I think Golden State has more experience here. They're the
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: better defense. Dallas is a dreaded public... underdog it looks
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: like here so i would lean towards laying the points
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: of golden state i just don't love it enough man
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: i don't want to put any of these on my
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: card but that's what we got going on there so
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: i'm going to do the nfl market read in a
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: second but plays today we have You can watch my
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: NFL video still.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 3: There's still time. We have some ugly.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: Plays this week, contrarian plays that I like. We have
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: the Chargers plus seven, which hopefully we can get seven
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: and a half on this, and I'll update it if so. Yesterday,
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: I didn't get either of the better numbers yesterday on
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: those two games, but it didn't really matter. South Alabama
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: blew that thing, and they absolutely should have covered, but
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: the extra half point didn't come into play, and for Florida, it.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: Didn't come into play either. They won easily. But yes, Chargers,
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 3: I would try to get the seven and a half.
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 3: They're one of my plays. Washington plus eight in the.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: Reverse injured player plus injured player spot, which is crazy,
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: very rare. You usually don't.
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 3: Get a spot like that.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: And we're also on Tampa Bay plus one and a
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: half in the NFL. And I almost put Houston on
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: the card too. I like Houston quite a bit as
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: well in the NFL. And then I'm adding the one
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: baseball play, the over in Houston in the A's.
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 3: I was hoping to find a nine on this.
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: Don't really see it happening. but we'll see. All right,
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: final NFL market read here, just so I can see
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: if I can nail my picks down here. But yeah,
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously Washington, it looks like you might be
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: able to get an eight and a half on Washington now.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: So that's better than eight. So, you know, maybe I'll
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: update that too, but that's not a key number.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 3: It doesn't really matter.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: Good thing about it also is it's a low total,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: but yes, the market read is still indicating on Washington.
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: Seattle's a very public side with less of the money
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: on them. Same goes for the Cincinnati side. So I
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh in that game and the market read agrees
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: with that. Detroit and the Jets, I really struggle to
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: figure this game out because it looks way too easy
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: to play Detroit, but I think they are in a
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: slightly better situation, and the money is backing Detroit. I mean,
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: that might be a game where it comes down to
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: which side of the seven. Like, if you're playing in
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: a pick-em pool or something, it might come down to
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: which side of the seven are you on in that one. Like,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: I really struggle to figure that out. I mean, I
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: think I might agree with the market read, which I
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: guess is real. slightly towards Detroit having the money there.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: But again, the odds makers look like they're trying to
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: bait you into playing Detroit. So that worries me there.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 3: I like the Giants.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: They have the slight market reading indicating towards them as well.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: Injured player spot for them, and they looked awful on
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: Monday night, so I think they're probably the right side there.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: I still lean Jacksonville, even though New England has a
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: slight cash percentage edge on them. I think they're going
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: to be a public... I think they look like a
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: public underdog to me, and I think the spot's a
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: little bit better for the Jags, so I lean that way.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: The market read basically still is... indicating on miami which
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: i definitely agree with with taking the points with miami
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: here as ugly as that is you know me with
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: ugly dogs i just think kansas city's laying way too
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: many points and they've looked really good so far they're
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: obviously way too public they're coming off back to back
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: uh prime time games to open the season yeah i
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: just think it might be a game where they kind
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: of get caught going through the motions the money is
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: definitely indicating on houston which like i said i do
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: have a strong opinion i agree with that houston I
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: kind of lean Cleveland in this Carolina-Cleveland game. Both teams
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: are just in bad spots here, though. I still don't
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: know what to do with this game. Carolina's got somewhat
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: of the cash percentage on them, but they're also really public.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: So I'm probably still going to wind up just leaning
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: Cleveland there, but that game is hard for me to
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: figure out. The market read still agrees with my Chargers play.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: It looks like the 7.5, not really out there, though.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: But I agree with the 7, too. You're on that
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: key number at the very least. And the market read
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: is saying Chargers here. 81% of tickets, 78% of the
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: cash on Buffalo. The market read is heavily agreeing with
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay with the ticket percentage on Minnesota, but the
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: actual cash on Tampa, so that's an agreement with me.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: The market agrees with Arizona, which I agree with that
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: as well. 49ers are a public side with less of
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: the money on them, so I agree with taking the
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: points with Arizona there. The market read does seem to
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: agree with me on New Orleans as well. That game's
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: hard for me to figure out. Both teams I think
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: are kind of in letdown spots, but I think I
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: prefer the better team, which I believe to be new
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: Orleans in that one. And you're also, you'd also be
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: laying points with a one-on-one team against a two and
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: O team, which the public doesn't really love doing that
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: laying points with the team with the lesser record.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 3: But yes, I lean new Orleans. The market seems to
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 3: agree there.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: Market seems to agree with Baltimore as well with the
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: ticket percentage on the other side on Dallas cash percentage
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: on Baltimore.
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 3: That game is in Brazil.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: Remember, um, The over seems to be getting some traction there, too,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: although I heard some professionals saying that people are going
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: to overreact to the high-scoring games that have been played
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: in Brazil and the turf being all chewed up, but still.
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 2: This looks like an over game anyway. I mean, these
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: teams are both more offensive than defensive at this point.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: So Dallas, I mean, I don't want to ever play
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: an under in a Dallas game. I mean, maybe if
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: they were playing against an offense that was completely inept,
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: but that's not Baltimore, obviously. So yeah, like Dallas, I mean,
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: they're such an over type of team because they have
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: a really good passing attack. Their rushing attack is pretty
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: good now as well, and they have no defense. So like,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: do you really want to play an under in that game?
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't do it. The total's high for a reason,
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: but again, I heard some professionals saying it's an overreaction
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: to what the Brazil games have looked like so far,
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: but whatever. I would not be on an under in
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: that game. I think it probably goes over, but I
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: don't know. I'm not much of a totals guy. But yes,
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: I agree with the Baltimore side. I think they're the
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: better team, and the spot sets up better for them.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: Rams at Denver, it looks like the market read is
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: indicating on Denver, which I also agree with as the
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: home underdog there, and what I think is a little
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: bit of a better spot, more rest for them as well.
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: rams having to go into mile high and the rams
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: remember they're an indoor team going outdoors which might be
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: a little bit um disadvantageous to them to some degree
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: so yeah i think denver makes sense there the monday
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: night the market agreement is on the injured player theory
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: side with chicago and i agree with that as well
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 2: um let's go a secret baygent man man that was
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: the title of my nfl show let's i love baygent
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: dude Dude, I would love if he stole the starting
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: job from Caleb Williams. Do you know how much I
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: would love that? I think Williams is fake. I think
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: he sucks. It looks like Williams is going to be
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: out multiple weeks now. All he has is a hamstring strain.
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: I think because of the way that he reacted to
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: save face, I think they have to leave him out
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: for multiple games now. It's completely ridiculous. But I hope
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: Baygent does really well and they just decide, yeah, you
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: know what? Bajent should actually be our quarterback.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 3: That's what I'm hoping for. Cause I, I'm a huge
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 3: Bajent fan, man.
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: And also his, uh, his father is a total Chad
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: and his father is a, uh, uh, like a championship
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 2: arm wrestler. So yeah, the Bajent family, the men in
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: the Bajent family are a bunch of Chad's. Okay.
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 3: That's what I got to say about that.
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: All right. That's going to do it, man. Learn to
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: tone on Twitter. Learn to tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: to the channel here. Listen on audio. Apple, Spotify, Springer.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: Those numbers have seen a massive spike over the last
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: couple of days. I hope it's not a fluke, man.
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: It would be awesome to see those numbers increase and
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 2: keep increasing.
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 3: That would be amazing.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know who's doing it.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know who out there is listening.
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: But if you like what I'm doing, and I'm trying
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: to give you the best that I got, the best winners,
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: enough to profit decently here.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 3: So let's do it, man. We're on a little bit
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 3: of a run right now recently.
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: So a lot of times that happens for me in
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: like weeks two and three in the NFL tend to
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 2: be really good for me. Although let's not jinx it here.
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: But yeah, let's get it done. What else do I
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: have to promote here? Covered in you because my ukulele
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: channel on YouTube, you can check that out. Of course,
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: if I forgot to mention the audio, we're on all
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: the big audio platforms, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, that all helps
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: me out. patreon.com slash learn to tone if you want
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: to support me that way for some bonus stuff like
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: you get new requests that I am very slow to
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: come around to doing a lot of it depends on
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: how much I know the song and how bad my
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: voice is and how difficult it is to sing so
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: there are a lot of factors there you know so
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: if you're asking me to do Freddie Mercury I'm like
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: waiting for my voice to really be in a decent
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: state to do maybe I should just do it and
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: ruin the song I don't know.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 3: So that's that. And then we have LoserCast every Tuesday.
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: And no idea if the New York Giants G-Spot podcast
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 2: is going to get going this year. We thought we
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: were going to have fun with it this year with
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 2: our boy, Jackson Darden. That's not going to happen. I'm
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: very upset about that. I like Winston, but, you know,
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: there just isn't much of a comparison there, even though
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: I think Winston's hilarious, and I hope he does well.
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: I think he will do better than what we... Like
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: I said, you can go see my NFL show, but
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: on Monday night, the game plan was... They planned for
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: Dart to be in that game, obviously, so the game
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: plan was a Dart game. plan and not a Winston one.
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 3: You know, Dart is more of a dual threat.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: Winston's more of a pocket passer pretty much. So this
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: time the Giants will have a game plan that's actually,
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: you know, designed for Winston this.
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 3: Time and not Dart. You know what I mean?
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: So I do expect Winston to at least look better there.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: In the game today. And also they're going up against
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: the Titans this time. And not the Rams. So there
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: is that. But that's going to do it. I appreciate
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: it everybody. I'll be back at some point. We've got
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: to do some baseball postseason predictions here. I'm going to
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: try to get Clint on for bald, maybe see if
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: we can do that tomorrow. Tonight I'm going to be out,
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: but I have to fill out my own postseason bracket
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: as well, so I've got to do that at some point.
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: That'll be a quicker video. Maybe after I get back
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: from the Weezer show tonight, maybe I'll do that. I've
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: got to brave the storm that's still out there to
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: get to that show. Hopefully, it's not an outdoor show,
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: so I think it's still happening, but hopefully I can
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: get to the venue. We will see. I think the
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: storm is kind of subsiding now, though. It was a
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: bit crazy yesterday. I did not lose power, though, so yay.
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 3: I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: Peace.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer. Let somebody know.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: hold on, not tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: let me pull you out. That bad luck bites hard,
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: but it don't get the crown. Hold on. Hold on,
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: stay with me now Hold on, hold on You're still
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: here now guitar solo