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Brad Olsen: Infometrics principal economist on employment confidence dropping in latest report · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed be
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  Speaker 1: follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
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  Speaker 2: The confidence of the job market has taken a big
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  Speaker 2: hit over the past three months. West Pax Employment Confidence
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  Speaker 2: Survey dropped thirteen points overall. Information Principal economist Brad Olson
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  Speaker 2: is with us on this evening to your Brad good evening.
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  Speaker 2: What does this actually measure? Is this measuring people in
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  Speaker 2: work worried about staying in work or changing jobs? Or
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  Speaker 2: does it mensure?
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  Speaker 1: Does it?
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  Speaker 2: Does it measure people trying to find work?
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  Speaker 3: Well, sort of measures a range of people. I mean
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  Speaker 3: parts of what you've just outlined is and there in
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  Speaker 3: terms of what people have work and you know, also
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  Speaker 3: what they're thinking about for the future. Sort of goes
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  Speaker 3: through it surveyed a bunch of people because I think
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  Speaker 3: this is probably the important thing. It gives us an
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  Speaker 3: idea once you break it down in terms of current
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  Speaker 3: job opportunities, so sort of you know what a feel
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  Speaker 3: like there are at the moment when they've been going
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  Speaker 3: around either because they're looking for work, because they don't
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  Speaker 3: have a job, or because they've got a job. You know,
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  Speaker 3: they're casting around for other opportunities, so things like expected
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  Speaker 3: job opportunity, So you know, what are they hearing and
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  Speaker 3: seeing out there when they're talking to recruiters. Is it
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  Speaker 3: looking up or down? What is earnings? And what's your
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  Speaker 3: own job security? And that's actually a bit of a
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  Speaker 3: big one as well. That has turned negative. It was
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  Speaker 3: positive last quarterback at the start of this year, it
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  Speaker 3: was slightly positive. It's now negative, which suggests that more
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  Speaker 3: people than not are going, actually I'm worried that I'm
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  Speaker 3: going to lose a job. You know, I'm not sort
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  Speaker 3: of confident I'm still going to have that pay. So
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  Speaker 3: all of those numbers continuing to decline that you know,
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  Speaker 3: I think they've said it's the worse since twenty twenty,
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  Speaker 3: but if you go back even further than that, and
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  Speaker 3: probably a better comparison is it looks like it's about
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  Speaker 3: on par It's not slightly worse than the worst part
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  Speaker 3: of the sort offc play. So we are seeing people
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  Speaker 3: that are increasingly going, look, it's difficult to find a job.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not confident I will keep my current job. That's
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  Speaker 3: a bad sign for the labor market.
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  Speaker 2: Clearly, Hell, Brad, do we explain the fact that in
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  Speaker 2: the private sector, it took a bigger knock for confidence
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  Speaker 2: than it did in the public sector. When the public
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  Speaker 2: sector is losing all of these jobs.
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  Speaker 3: Well, you've got a wonder if part of that is
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  Speaker 3: because the part sector probably knew of those challenges a
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  Speaker 3: lot earlier. So, I mean, if you look at some
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  Speaker 3: of those sort of figures that have come through, it
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  Speaker 3: possibly suggests there was a bit of preemption from the
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  Speaker 3: public sector sort of workers going look, we sort of
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  Speaker 3: we could see this coming from a little bit of
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  Speaker 3: a mile away. It's also though, being seen in job
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  Speaker 3: ad numbers that have been published over the last week
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  Speaker 3: or so from the like suc Seat. You know, those
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  Speaker 3: employment figures and expectations around job numbers continue to be worse.
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  Speaker 3: It was interesting. I've been out and presenting and potty
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  Speaker 3: to do it today talking to their business months and then,
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  Speaker 3: you know, the biggest question there was all around the
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  Speaker 3: public service cuts that have come through, and I think
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  Speaker 3: the challenge is that they still haven't actually fully hit yet.
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  Speaker 3: They you know, there's still those restructurings that are going on,
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  Speaker 3: and it probably won't be until September, maybe the end
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  Speaker 3: of this year before we've got a full and final
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  Speaker 3: picture of what that looks like.
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  Speaker 2: Brad, it's so good to talk to you, mate. Thank
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  Speaker 2: you very much appreciated as Brad Olson, Infametrix Principal economist.
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