Latest / Pod Save the World / The Art of the Venezuela Oil Deal

Transcript

The Art of the Venezuela Oil Deal · Pod Save the World

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to Pod Save the World.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: I'm Tommy Vitor.
• 0:14
  Speaker 3: I'm Ben Rhodes.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Ben, have you seen the clip of the like three
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: massive hurricanes that have formed in the Pacific thanks to
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: El Nino and I guess climate change?
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I didn't have hurricanes on my list. I knew fires.
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: I should be concerned about earthquakes. But now I guess
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: we have all manner of natural disasters out here in California.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Earlier this week, there was a report that LA might
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: get hit with a hurricane on Labor Day.
• 0:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to happen anymore, but
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: what the hell is going on? Not good.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: We're kind of whistling past the climate apocalypse.
• 0:44
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: Because of all the other apocalypses happening.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's an AI apocalypse that's kind of hovering around us.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: There's a climate change apocalypse that I sometimes worry about.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: 31 flavors of nightmares, I guess.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: Let's just say the roof of my nine-year-old house was
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: not built for the atmospheric rivers that have been hitting
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Southern California. So I'm a little worried about stuff dripping.
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: Yes, it's not going to be good.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: And I have a three-year-old and a two-year-old and they
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: are outdoor cats and they are not going to like
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: being inside if we're dealing with monsoons. Anyway, this could
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: be a fun show because we are guys who like
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: to have a good time.
• 1:19
  Speaker 6: Always.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: When things are real shitty. So what we're going to
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: do today, we're going to review six months of Trump's
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: perfect war with Iran. We're also going to talk about
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: this resumption of fighting that's kicked off over the weekend
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: and got a lot worse today. Yeah. Right before we
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: went in, there was a bunch of– there was an
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: exchange of ballistic missile file. fire that we'll talk through.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: We're also going to talk about how the Iran war
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: has led to some pretty dire warnings from some of
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the most senior military leaders about the strain the war
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: is having on the US military. Then we're going to
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: walk you through this truly crazy deal the Trump administration
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: announced last week, where the Pentagon is going to take
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: a stake in a Venezuelan oil company. That's a real sentence.
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: Yes, it is.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: That's a thing that is apparently going to happen. The
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Pentagon is getting warrants to own an oil company Actually,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: it's based in Barbados. It's not even Venezuela. It's Barbados.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: Good tax deal for the Department of War.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, save on your taxes over there. So no potential
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: for corruption there.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: No, zero.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Then we're going to explain who was and who was
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: not invited to the G20 finance meeting in North Carolina.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: We'll tell you about the latest on the recovery efforts
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: after this just biblical-looking flood and landslide in Nepal and China,
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: one of the scariest things I've ever seen in my life.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Why Iceland declined to join the European Union. And then
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: a crazy story out of South Korea that's worth watching.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: And Ben, then I did our interview. It's with David Eby,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: the premier of British Columbia. We talked about the Trump
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: trade war. We talked about kind of the reaction from
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: average citizens in Canada about all the things Trump has done.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Spoiler alert. They're pissed.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: And it's not just this. They're pissed about the 51st state,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the annexation threats, the shit talk, the calling Carney the governor,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: like all of it. And interestingly, he is not a
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: member– Premier Eby is not a member of Carney's party.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: He's like NDPD to the left. But there is cross-party support.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: There is I think– what was the poll we talked
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: about last week?
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: 72 percent.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, 76, 72 percent support for Carney walking away. So
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: it just feels like a fight that is destined to
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: get worse and not better because Trump has like so
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: thoroughly enraged– average Canadians and awoken the sense of Canadian
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: nationalism that is, I don't know, seems pretty durable. Maybe
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: I'm wrong.
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: I think you're right because they have both sovereignty and
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: political incentives to not capitulate to Trump. And, you know,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what Trump's trying to achieve. I mean,
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: that's it. It's like the Iran war, which we'll talk about. Like,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: what is his goal in this trade war? Like, we
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: don't know other than he got mad.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Good question. Yeah, I don't think it's softwood lumber. All right. Well,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: let's start with Iran. So we're about six months into
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: the war with Iran. We are going to discuss some
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: of the great achievements from Mr. Trump's excursion into Iran.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: That was supposed to be four weeks. But first, we're
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: going to walk you through this latest round of airstrikes
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: and fighting. So over the weekend, there was an exchange
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: of fire between the U.S. and Iran for the first
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: time in a month. CENTCOM said they fired at Iranian
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: troops that were trying to lay mines in the street
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: of Hormuz. In response, Iran fired missiles at Jordan. All
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: of those were shot down by interceptors. The UAE also
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: said they intercepted an Iranian drone over their waters. And
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal reported that several ships have been
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz over the
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: past couple of days. But then today, on Tuesday, the U.S.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: conducted a bunch more strikes that they said were intended
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: to reduce the risk of Iran firing on ships. And
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: then right before we started recording, video started circulating of
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Iranian ballistic missiles that have been fired back in response
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: to the U.S. Here is Fox News' Trey Yinkst relaying
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: his conversation with with President Trump from earlier Tuesday. Let's watch.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: I just spoke with President Trump, who indicated that if
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: the Iranians respond to these U.S. strikes against their country,
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: the president said they'll be hit much harder. He went
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: on to say today's strikes were a very big hit,
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: and if it goes a third time, they're going to
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: be totally wiped out as a country. Now, I asked
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: the president what was hit tonight in Iran, specifically in
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: the southwestern part of the country, next to the Strait
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: of Hormuz. President Trump says a lot of radar. and
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: added that they were trying to rebuild the radar systems
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: and the United States was watching. And then just before
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: they completed this construction, that's when these strikes took place.
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: The president says the USS George Washington, that new aircraft
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: carrier that arrived in theater last week, is loaded to
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: the gills with ammunition. And he indicated that they have
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: enough to continue this fight against Iran again if the
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: Iranians do decide to respond.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: So we now know the Iranians have have responded.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Good little state media clip there.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. You know, Trey Yinks has done some really
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: good reporting back in the day on the coverage out
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: of Tel Aviv. It's a real bummer that he's become
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: like a Trump phone call guy.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're credibly like he's going to, how many times
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: has he been about to destroy Iran with the third strike?
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Right, not a lot of scrutiny on these statements. So
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: on Monday, Axios reported that the U.S. was considering this
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: like long-term mow the grass strategy where they just periodically
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: degrade Iran's military assets in the region. Ben, one might
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: describe that as a forever war. One might.
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: Tommy, maybe because it's six months and I'm in a
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: retrospective mood, I'm going to start with one thing, which
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: is you know how Trump likes to talk a lot
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: about how these other countries are freeloaders, especially allies in
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: Europe and Asia? Do you remember that country that has
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: a prime minister that helped convince Trump to do this
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: and has recently boasted that he was able to get
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: Trump to Obama-run? Do you remember how at the beginning
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: of this war, Israel was a part of it?
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: What happened there?
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: Who's the freeloader here? Because near as I can tell,
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: we're in a forever war. Bibi is running a reelection
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: campaign on how he convinced Trump to do this. That's
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: what he said. That's not me. So anyway, just put
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: a pin in that one.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: It's a good point. The election is next month.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: We never talked about that. And we've got a memory
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: hold that they were– part of the war and then
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: suddenly they weren't and we never talk about that.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no idea.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: Stop, stop. Yeah, look, what's happening here tactically is pretty evident,
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: which is the Iranians have successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: The Trump administration is going around boasting about the fact
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: that through a combination of tactics, apparently ships in the
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: dark of night close to Oman are the destruction of
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: some of these radars so that the Iranians can see that.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: We've now won the great victory, Tommy, not of changing
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: the Iranian regime or destroying the Iranian nuclear program or
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: obliterating the Iranian Navy or military or all the other
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: things that have been claimed. We're now claiming victory because
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: traffic to the Strait of Hormuz is like, I don't know, 40,
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: 60% of what it was. So all we're doing now
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: is like hitting the Iranians to try to stop them
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: from hitting tankers, to try to like eat a few
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: extra tankers through a strait that was open before the
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: war began. And that's not a durable solution because the
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: Iranians are not going to disappear. They live there and
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: they will continue to escalate, I think, militarily. They have
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: issued some warnings in recent days that, you know, they're
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: going to kind of return to hitting all these countries
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: that host U.S. military facilities and places where some of
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: these strikes are taking place from. And so we're just
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: another escalation cycle that is entirely about fighting over this
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: control of the Strait of Hormuz. Why is that preferable
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: to just cutting some deal diplomatically that opens the Strait
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: of Hormuz and just calling this thing a day? Why
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: do we have to spend tens of billions of dollars
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: more money? We'll get into the depletion of stockpiles.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: We need an update on the cost. If they're keeping 50,000 U.S.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: service members In the Middle East.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: Hundreds of billions of dollars.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: All these ships are there.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Like anywhere. We're naked. Everybody else. Yeah. Let's take some
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: of the stats. By the way, though, if you like
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: foreign policy coverage that doesn't just take Trump's phone call
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: and repeat what he says, please subscribe to Pod Save
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: the World here on YouTube.
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: Organic plug.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: We are trying to build a progressive counterweight to all
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: the right wing crap you see from Fox News in
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: particular that is advocating for war. And when you subscribe
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: to our channel. You help us grow and you also
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: help us get good information into the YouTube algorithm and
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: get good information to people. So please do. Also, it's free.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: So just a couple of stats, Ben. The casualty count
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: is now, after six months, 757 wounded, 18 Americans dead.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: We don't know the real casualty count in Iran, but
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: the journal estimates 3,000 dead related to combat operations. Obviously,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: that number is bigger when you include all civilians, including
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: well over 100 girls at a school. Despite claiming he
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: was going to rescue the protesters' life for Iranians in
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Iran is horrible. Inflation is at 80%. inflation for food
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: items is way worse. The Guardian reported that vegetable oil
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: in Iran in August cost 383% more than it did
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: a year ago. The price of eggs rose by 294%,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: chicken by 177%, and red meat by 148%. Oil prices
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: are up 23%. In the US, gas prices up by 38%.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: The chief economist at Moody's put the cost of war
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: at over $ 1, 200 per American household between gas and inflation
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: and interest rates. To your point earlier about shipping through
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz, so pre-war levels were about 130
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: ships per day. This data firm Kepler says that in
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: recent weeks, it's about a dozen ships per day going
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: through the Strait. So that is way, way, way down.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: There have been 71 attacks on ships since the war started,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: killing 19 sailors. Iran is attacked. Israel, Qatar, Iraq, Syria,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, and Kuwait. So
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: we've ignited this nice little regional conflagration. I guess the
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: only good thing you can say about the Iran conflict
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: is that it's currently only six months long. But, you know,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: the fighting we saw today suggests that we could see
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: another six months quite easily.
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: And first of all, I still find it strange that
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: we think there was something called like the 12-day war
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: last year. I mean, because this gets to the cost.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: We've had like an advanced force posture in the region
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: like since that 12-day war. Like this is in some
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: ways more than the six-month war. But if you even
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: take the six-month thing. I think the fundamental problem remains
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: the flaw at the outset of the war, which– I
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: mean one flaw is just you shouldn't fight wars you
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: don't need to fight. But the other flaw strategically was
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: I don't think Donald Trump in his own mind knows
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: what purpose this war is serving anymore. He was clearly
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: convinced that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly and there
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: would be some– Venezuela-like transformation, which we'll get to when
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: we get to Venezuela. And since that didn't happen, like
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: he just can't identify a way to end the war
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: because there's no way to end the war without accepting
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: the fact that this was a pointless endeavor. You know,
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: like there's not going to be some miraculous victory of,
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: you know, the Iranian regime surrendering. So it's just going
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: to be tit for tat and tit for tat until
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: Trump realizes that the best you're going to get is
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: opening up the straight-forward moves, basically. And so it's an
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: absurd reason. It's a truly absurd reason to be fighting
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: a war. The incalculable cost is the extent to which
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: this is like a body blow to whatever remained of America's,
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: I don't even want to say standing anymore, because long-term,
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: this is going to make Middle Eastern countries see U.S.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: partnership as at worst unreliable at best it is completely
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: screwed over allies who are going to start to hedge
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: aggressively from the United States and seek other arrangements whether
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: it's with China or other countries and and just public
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: opinion I mean I I find myself Tommy like not
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: I don't trust what the Pentagon says no I have
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: trouble even it's not that I don't trust but this
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: regurgitation of Trump phone calls, you know, like. Yeah.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: But that's only a few, that's a few reporters at
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: a few outlets. I agree with you, but then a
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: lot of others are doing like pretty backbreaking reporting. We'll
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: get to some of that.
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: But there's, you know, it's never good when like you
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: have this kind of a country that already lacked confidence
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: and information. And I think we may look back on
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: this war as like a bigger thing than it even
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: feels like now. And it feels pretty big in terms
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: of like trust and, and institutions and, And then lastly,
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: I just want to put a pin on this because
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: you and I text about it a lot. The economic
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: disruptions you described are contributing to this anxiety that we
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: see most probably in the bond markets where you have
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: unsustainable fiscal situations in countries. You've got growing deficits, growing
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: debt obligations, and then countries are making that worse because
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: they're having to spend money to fill the gap to
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: try to fight inflation because of higher energy prices. This–
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: feels like a straw on the back of a camel
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: that feels poised to break. And so don't forget to
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: tie whatever economic disruptions we face in the next year
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: or two to impart this decision.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: Oh, no doubt. I mean, we talked about it on
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: a recent show, the degree to which increased oil costs
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: have led to all these disturbances in the Japanese bond market,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: for example. But yeah, I mean, just to put some
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: data behind that, like the 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: near two-decade highs. That's because people are dumping U.S. treasuries.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: 10-year bond yields in Japan are above 3% for the
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: first time since 1996. In the UK, their bonds are
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: the highest level since 2007. In Germany, the highest since 2011.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Our debt is $ 40 trillion. That's 120% of GDP. France's
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: debt is over $ 4 trillion, which is 117% of GDP.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Japanese debt is two times their GDP. So I'm not
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: usually a big deficit debt guy. We've heard so many
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: warnings about it over the years.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: We need to bring back Simpson Bowles here.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah. But at some point, it becomes just servicing the
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: debt becomes so unbelievably expensive that investors will lose confidence.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: One last point on this. It's just likely that the
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: kind of status quo is going to lead to higher
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: costs in terms of the price tag, but also costs
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: in terms of human lives. Because USA Today had a
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: report out today about this new Iranian missile that they
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: deployed that is apparently the one causing a ton of
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: damage and breaking through air defenses and hitting bases. They
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: call it the Castle Breaker. It's a mobile launch missile
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: that has a 900-mile range, and the warhead can maneuver
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: as it's coming down. So it's evading US missile defense systems,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: and they think that that's what killed three US troops
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: in Jordan back in July. So if They have a
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: big stockpile of these things. They start launching them at U.S.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: bases like more service members.
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: Are going to die.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: And this is what happens in every war, right? Adversaries
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: innovate and they figure out different missiles or different drones
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: that can penetrate different defenses at the same time that
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: we have a munitions problem, which we'll talk about. But
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: the other thing that's notable is that the Iranian president
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: just met with Putin and the Chinese. The Russians and
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: the Chinese have incentive to help the Iranians innovate and
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: and help make this more costly to us. They are
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: a beneficiary of this war, like make no mistake, because
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: it bogs us down. It drains our munitions. It drains
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: our credibility. It drives up energy prices, which is good
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: for Putin. So I'd watch that space too.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: So there's also these concerns within the Pentagon's top military leadership.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: The Washington Post reported this out. They reported that a
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: twice-monthly report called the Secretary of Defense Order Books, or SDOB,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: contained some notable dissent from within the ranks of the
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: military leadership on the direction of the war, who reportedly
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: think that the Iran operation has gone on and it's been, quote,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: too much for too long. So this is described by
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: the post. The SDOB, quote, outlines the worldwide availability of U.S. warships, aircraft, personnel,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: weapon systems. It reflects the president's priorities for the force,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: which are carried out by the secretary of defense. So
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: some of the moves Hegseth has made that seem to
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: have concerned or pissed off some of the combatant commanders
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: are are things like he's extending the deployment of a
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: bunch of troops in the Middle East until next year.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: The head of the Pacific Command is not thrilled about
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: having to send a carrier strike group, so an aircraft carrier,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: and the destroyers that travel with it from his area
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: of operations in Asia to the Middle East. The Post
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: says the Navy in particular is feeling taxed and overextended
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: due to long deployments for the force, and then wear
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: and tear on naval assets. We've talked about that in
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: the context of the USS Abraham Lincoln deployment. Ben, I
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: talked to a bunch of people who worked at top
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: jobs at the Pentagon about this post story. And most
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: of them said basically the same thing, which is like,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: it's not unsurprising or all that rare to have combatant
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: commanders non-concur on an order. Non-concur means I don't like it,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: but I'll do it. It's like, you know, with your spouse,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: you're like, fine, we can get tie, but I'm not
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: happy about it. You're just passive aggressive.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: I do like tie.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: I do that. I like get a lot of tie. So,
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: but like, the way to understand this is like you're
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: a combatant commander, you have a specific region, you have
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: a specific job in their scarce resources. So it's no
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: surprise that if you're the guy in charge of the Indo-Pacific,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: you're going to be pissed off when the aircraft carrier
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: in your region goes to the Gulf again. So they
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: thought that was not surprising, but everyone thought it was
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: extraordinary that this leaked because it suggested a level of
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: anxiety and frustration and anger about Hegseth decision-making that is
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: so high that someone was willing to risk ending their
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: career and getting court-martialed, maybe going to prison to leak
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: this to the post?
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, first of all, in the substance of it, look,
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: why does this matter? At the far end, it matters
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: because if we have a reduced force posture and reduced
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: munitions and all the rest of it, the huge scenarios
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: you are concerned about are Russian provocation or military action
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: into Europe, which we've been talking about as a risk,
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: the Baltic states or somewhere else. or some Chinese action
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: in Taiwan.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Apparently such a risk that the CIA director flew to Moscow,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: by the way.
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: So this is like– I don't think it's likely, but
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: at the precise time that we appear to be concerned
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: about at least one of those scenarios. Then beyond that,
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: like the other thing is that these forces are often
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: used for things like joint military exercises, like the kind
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: of routine functioning of how we work with allies, how
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: we do things like freedom of navigation operations in the
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: Pacific and the South China Sea. Like it just– It
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: makes it harder for these people to do the kind
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: of routine elements of their job. And there are other
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: kind of things that could happen like natural disasters where
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: the US military could help out. It's just not a
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: good thing in principle to have this diminished presence even
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: if nothing goes wrong. And I should say, for what purpose?
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: It's not like we're fighting the Nazis here. It's not
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: even like it's right after 9-11 or something. We're doing
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: this because of an episodic decision that Trump made in
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: February 2018. on an ad hoc basis. On your latter point, this,
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: there is a clear sign that there's just no confidence
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: in Hegseth. You know, like he, he, even though he's
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: purged people that, you know, these are the people who
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: remain after the purges, you know, like the, the people
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: leaking are not, you know, the ones that survived him,
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: you know, firing a bunch of people and not promoting
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: a bunch of people. So these aren't like left-wingers, I
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: don't think. And it shows you that they just fundamentally
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: don't trust his leadership and don't think that he listens
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: to them. Because, you know, my sense is the military
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: does not usually leak this kind of thing, you know.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: And that suggests that they don't feel like they have
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: an outlet to either Hegseth or even, frankly, to Congress,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: you know, which, you know, oftentimes is an advocate for
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: the uniformed military. So it shows you how bottled up
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: things are and how pent up the frustrations are.
• 21:37
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  Speaker 2: and tell them we sent you. Speaking of that purge,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: on Monday, we learned that the Secretary of the Army
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: is now out at the Pentagon. This is a guy
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: named Dan Driscoll. He has repeatedly butted heads with Hegseth,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: according to news reports over the last year or two.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: He's very close to J.D.
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: Vance.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: I think they're classmates at Yale Law School. The main
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: beef between them seemed to be Driscoll's objection to Hegseth
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: purging other top military leaders that he just didn't like
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: often because they were women or they were black or
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: they were I don't know, at a mind of their own,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: including the April firing of the then army chief of staff,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: Randy George, a move that Hegseth made while Driscoll was
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: on vacation. Very courageous there, Pete. And a position that
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: hasn't been filled. There's also been a bunch of, there's
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: like three other top army leaders that Hegseth forced out.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: The army is down from 10 four-star generals to five
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: four-star generals since Hegseth was installed at the Pentagon. I
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: think all of us would agree that there were probably
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: too many very senior leaders at the Pentagon, but that
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: seems like There's been a bunch of stories about kind
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: of the way the army in particular is rudderless in
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: this moment and Driscoll leaving is going to add to that.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Driscoll also reportedly objected to Hegseth firing a couple of
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: black officers and a couple of female officers or at
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: least preventing their promotions. He also was sent to Ukraine
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: for negotiations that made Hegseth feel threatened and also Hegseth
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: seemed to think that Driscoll might be groomed to replace
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: him because he is not up to the job. So,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know, seems bad. And also, Hegseth apparently wants
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: the Pentagon flack Sean Parnell to replace him, which is
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: the idea of like the assistant secretary in charge of
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: communications taking over as head of the army is like
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: unheard of to me. Maybe I'm just wrong, but like
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: that seems crazy.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: Well, because there are two things. There's a Hegseth issue
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: and then a related Trump issue, right? The Hegseth issue
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: is the complete lack of regard for competency in the
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: US military. Like, We've seen this in other Trump agencies,
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: particularly in the second term, where they really don't care
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: if positions go unfilled, if people are competent or not.
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: All they care about is like extreme loyalty, extreme on message.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: Like when I say jump, you say how high or
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: when I show up to like do push-ups with you
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: for a photo op, you act like essentially a trained SEAL.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: And it's one thing when we hear those stories that
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: like– and I'm not trying to diminish these other agencies
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: but like I don't even want to name– but like
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: the EPA or the ones that they want to destroy.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: The US military is not a place to like do
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: this level of the destruction of competence and purges. Like
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: make no mistake, these are again hundreds, thousands of years
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: of experience like being sent out the door, being shown
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: the way, transformation of the demographics of the senior ranks
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: of the military. Like that's bad. Um, the, the Trumpian
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: piece that I worry about, we've talked about kind of
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: the authoritarian watch on the military is in the last
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: two years of the Trump administration. I just have a
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: feeling like, especially if they lose the midterms, like shit
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: can get really weird. Like that, that could be when
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: he wants to like, you know, make a move on
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: Greenland over the objections of Congress, or maybe he'll come
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: back to wanting to put the military in the streets,
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: you know? And, And it does feel like this effort
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: to come transform the military into some compliant, you know,
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: this guy resigned is not exactly like a resistance lib,
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: you know, he's a JDS buddy. And so it makes
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: you wonder like what the bar is to be in
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: a decision-making role at the Pentagon. And A, does that
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: mean they might be more likely to go along with
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: truly crazy shit that Trump asked them to do? And B,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: like we are allowed to look past Trump, like, Oh,
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: my God. What kind of Pentagon is the next president
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: going to inherit? If you're a democratic president, you're going
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: to walk into a military that has been emptied out
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: of anybody except the most diehard MAGA loyalists or yes men,
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: and they're all men, and they will have lost all
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: this capability and will probably also have like hundreds of
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: billions of dollars in boondoggle contracts with like the likes
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: of Don Jr. 's drone manufacturers.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Well, let's get to that. I'm sure many listeners were
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: confused by recent reports that the Pentagon has led an
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: investment into a Venezuelan oil company. You are not alone.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: Here's what happened and why this idea seems doomed to
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: fail in the connection to Don Jr. So the investment
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: was led by an office within the Department of Defense
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: called the Office of Strategic Capital. So that's called the OSC.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: The OSC was set up during the Biden administration. The
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: idea was to make investments in defense industrial production. Remember,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine kind of exposed shortages in munitions
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: and other technologies that have since been exacerbated further by
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: the war in Iran. The office's loan authority went from
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: about $ 1 billion under Biden to over $ 200 billion under Trump.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: So they got a lot of cash to move around here.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: One of their earliest moves under Trump was to loan
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: like $ 600 million to a company connected to Donald Trump Jr.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: So great start. What the Trump administration announced last week
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: was that the Pentagon now has an option to take
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: a 35% stake in the parent company of a Venezuelan
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: oil company called North American Blue Energy Partners. That company
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: is run by a guy named Alejandro Betancourt. We'll come
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: back to him in a minute. Under this deal, though,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: the US has the right to buy 20% of the
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: production from all of the company's current and future oil
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: fields at cost with the right of first refusal to
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: buy the rest of the production. Let's say there's some emergency,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: we can just try to buy all that oil. Concurrent
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: with that deal, the Venezuelan government granted North American Blue
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: Energy Partners 100-year leases on 17 oil fields with reserves
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: estimated up to $ 65 billion. So a shit ton of
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: oil is the technical term. Trump is trying to sell
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: this as some sort of like cost-free windfall for the
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: American people that's going to reduce gas prices. But in reality,
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: I think there's a couple of reasons to assume that
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: like this thing is never going to get completed. The
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: first is just the political risk. The next US president
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: could kill this deal. Any democratic president should. This is
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: like corrupt and stinks to high heaven. The next Venezuelan
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: president could too if Trump ever allows elections. And many
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: experts think that this deal violates Venezuela's constitution. And they
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: basically just question the legitimacy of any deal made by
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: an interim government with a leader installed by the United
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: States at gunpoint. I think that's a reasonable way to
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: view it. There's also the question of political opinion in Venezuela.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Trump was very popular in Venezuela right after the Maduro operation.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: His approval has steadily fallen ever since. Trump has propped
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: up Delce Rodriguez, who is Maduro's number two and stooge.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: He's cut side deals like this. Everyone in Venezuela sees
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: all the corruption happening around them. And Venezuelans, let's just
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: say they have a history of being a touch heavy-handed
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: when it comes to taking back oil assets that they
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: feel were unfairly taken from them.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: I've seen that movie.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: That's Hugo Chavez. And then there's the oil itself. So
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: without getting too technical, Venezuelan oil is heavy and thick.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: You don't just drill a hole and it comes out.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: You need specialized equipment. You need an enormous amount of investment.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: By some estimates, up to $ 100 billion all in to
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: upgrade the pipelines, the power sources, and everything else. And
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: it could take a decade to develop fully all of
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: these oil fields, which is why I don't think we're
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: ever really going to see much of this oil And
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: why most oil and gas companies are looking elsewhere where
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: the investment required is lower and it's just less like
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: political risk generally. So, Ben, I'll pause there. Then I
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: think we should really dig into the corruption piece of this.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: But I think both of us have the same reaction
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: to this. You read it once. You're like, what the fuck?
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: And then you dig into it and it gets even
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: more bonkers kind of like the deeper you go.
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: It's basically like a 2026– finance and natural resources version
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: of imperialism. I mean, this is just straight up imperialism.
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: Like we went in, we removed the leader of the
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: country under, you know, as bad as the guys. He
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: was pretty strange, dubious purposes. Like do we really think
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: that was about narco trafficking? No, it was about oil.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: So this is straight up imperialism. That's bad.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Like we shouldn't be in that business. Like it's wrong.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: The second thing is let's talk about the Venezuelan people
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: and then the American people. The Venezuelan people have gotten
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: very little out of this whole enterprise. Look, you and I,
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: me probably in particular because of my role in Cuba,
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: at times have been on the wrong side or people
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: have been critical who wanted to remove Maduro and want
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: to remove the Cuban government. And my argument has always
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: been not that I'm not sympathetic to your plight living
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: under an autocratic leader. It's that the United States and
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: particularly Donald Trump doing that is not in service of
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: your interests. And here we are, like months after this operation,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: and nothing about the Venezuelan government has changed. It's run
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: by the exact same people, except not Nicolas Maduro. It's
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: still corrupt. It's still authoritarian. Maria Machado, remember her Nobel
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: Peace Prize winner, is like nowhere to be seen. They
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: won't even let her go back into the country. So
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: this was not about In the same way that the
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Iran war wasn't about like bringing democracy to Iran, like
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: that's not what this is about. And then the American people,
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: you know, I'm sure on Fox, this has been treated
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: as like some big win. And, you know, Rubio likes to,
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: you know, pose in the Maduro sweatsuit on Air Force One.
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: But what are we getting out of this? Like nobody
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: can articulate. Like I think it's wrong. But even if
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: you're like don't care about imperialism and stealing other people's resources,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: like Gas prices are up. Nobody's explained how this is
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: going to make anything better for Americans. This feels like
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: such a strange inside play that is in this pivots
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: to corruption going to somehow end up lining the pockets
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: of Of a small set of people in Venezuela and
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: the United States.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Yes, that's what this is.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: It just does not feel like anything that benefits any
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: larger interest, either Venezuelan or American.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah. First of all, this is a deal that would
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: make Hugo Chavez proud. This is just nationalizing these. So
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Trump is struggling to get major oil companies to invest
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: in Venezuela because of the- Yeah, because it's too expensive,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: too risky. The instability and the cost. So they have
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: the Pentagon form a partnership with an alleged money launderer.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: That's who this Betancourt guy is. facilitate this deal. We
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: don't know any of the financial terms as far as
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: I can tell. We don't know if there's other private
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: capital that's part of it or like some secret side
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: deals to divide up the revenue. Ultimately, it's just part
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: of this like smash and grab job presidency where Trump
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: gets himself richer. He tries to extract as much money
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: as he can from everything and for his family and
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: for his friend and for people who cut him bribes.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: So I think it's really worth watching Who else gets
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: involved in this publicly? Because I think they deserve some scrutiny.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: And then again, on Betancourt, he's like a princeling in Venezuela.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: He got rich by getting state contracts from Hugo Chavez.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: He later backstabbed Maduro, had to flee the country, came back,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: became like maybe reportedly the go-between between Trump and Delce
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: Rodriguez and Rubio during the Maduro operation or after. Again,
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: but he's been investigated for money laundering and for allegedly
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: helping embezzle more than a billion dollars from Venezuela. The
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Trump administration apparently lobbied the Swiss government to get them
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: to drop the charges. And now this guy is the U.S.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: government's partner on this deal? Sounds perfect.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, sounds perfect. He's like tailor-made for the Trump operation.
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: And it just shows you, yeah, it's a smash and
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: grab operation. In the absolute best case scenarios, like you said,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: it would take a decade to kind of get this
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: thing online. Do we really think Trump's sticking that far ahead?
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: Like they're just going to squeeze the juice that they
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: can out of this stuff and spread the money around
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: in a small circle while they can. And this just
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: shows you the lack of regard they have for certainly
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: the Venezuelans. Delcy, everybody, you know, Delcy Rodriguez and her
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: brother get to kind of maintain power. And I'm sure
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: they get a cut. This guy gets a cut. People
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: around Trump get cuts. And that's about it. Like it's
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: not like some grand strategy. This is old-fashioned smash-and-grab imperialism.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I just want to know the financial details because
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: what the U.S. gets is warrants in this parent company
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: of Bettencourt's oil company. So what a warrant is is
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: like an option where at a certain price, you can
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: exercise it. And apparently, they're called penny options. So it
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: sounds like we pay literally a penny for these warrants.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: But then if the value of the warrant goes to $ 10,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: you exercise the option. And then all of a sudden,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: you you have all this additional value. So it's interesting
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: because the US government is now incentivized to get these
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: oil fields producing more oil, but also to see the
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: value of this corporation go up, right? Because we have
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: these warrants- There's equity in this company. Right, we have
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: equity in this fucking oil company. And so my question is,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: who else has warrants? Like, does John Jr. have a bunch,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: like to other corrupt people around the Trump administration? Because like,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: imagine like having a warrant in something where the US
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: has a vested financial interest in seeing the share price
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: go up. It's just– the whole thing is super shady.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: The fact that this like Barbados-based company just got 100-year
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: titles for Venezuelan oil fields. Like first of all, that's
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: going to be stuck in litigation in perpetuity. We know
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: some of the people who are probably going to sue it.
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we do.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: I mean it– and the fact that it's clearly opaque
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: by design. But if you just take a step back,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: like why is– I mean this is like a leftist
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: fever dream. Like the Pentagon taking a stake in an
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: oil company to steal the natural resources of a Latin
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: American country and put in a shell company in Barbados?
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: Like that's a thing that is happening in the world.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: That is completely absurd. If Russia was doing this, there
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: would be 7 trillion Atlantic articles about it. Like Ann
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Applebaum would write a book about it. Like this is–
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: like what the fuck is going on here? This is nuts.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: It's wild. It's wild. OK. Glad we got that off
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: our chest. Meanwhile, the G20– The finance ministers are meeting
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: as we speak in Asheville, North Carolina. Let me tell
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: you a little bit about the guest list, Ben. On
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: the guest list, Russia's finance minister. This was his first
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: time at a G20 meeting since 2022 when the Russians
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: invaded Ukraine. I believe that year it was on Zoom
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: and the Germans like stormed out of the Zoom meeting.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: This has got to be his first trip to the U.S.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: In a very long while too, right?
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I like that.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: He's in like a hippie town in North Carolina. I
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: love Asheville.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Asheville is beautiful. My first political job was in Asheville
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: in Buncombe County.
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: I did debate prep with Obama.
• 38:50
  Speaker 6: Oh, yeah.
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: In 08.
• 38:51
  Speaker 7: Nice.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: It's like beautiful rolling hills, clouds and stuff. Great, great town. Okay. So,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Besant has a bilateral meeting with the Russian foreign minister.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: Not invited to this meeting, South Africa or their representative.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: The Trump administration is still mad at South Africa about
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: a non-existent genocide against white farmers in South Africa. So
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: for those of you keeping score at home, the guy
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: from the country responsible for killing hundreds of thousands of
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: people in Ukraine and also his own country invited, the
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: guy responsible for the made up fake genocide, not invited.
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: So that's how this works now.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: It tells you a lot. And you I do think–
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: I watched this and Besant, who's kind of going up
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: my power rankings for odious Trump administration officials.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Because he says shit talking to the TV and stuff, right?
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like the sheen is off from like early Trump
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: market whisperer, Normie Scott Besant. Like he's becoming more and
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: more just a cartoon. But he's out there demanding that
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: these other countries join his non-existent economic D-Day against Iran.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: He's speaking for them. He's saying everybody agreed, but notably,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: they're not with him. He's doing that by himself in interviews.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: He's got trade wars going against the Canadian finance minister
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: and terrorists on the Europeans. This is a place– I mean, again,
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: not to come back to an obsession– the G20 is
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: where you're supposed to deal with the global economy. That's
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: what you're supposed to be working on there. These issues
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: in the bond markets would be a normal thing that
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: a bunch of finance ministers should come together and figure
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: out how to coordinate measures to deal with that. And instead,
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: he's just jawboning these foreign ministers about cutting off the
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: Iranians and forcing them to sit in a room with
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: the Russians. How do you think the Europeans felt about that?
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: Right. It's honestly worse than not solving the problem. It's like,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: The way you solve the problem right now for a
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: lot of these countries is you end the war in
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Iran so that gas prices go down. And instead he's like,
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: why don't you join us in this effort that's going
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: to make everything worse? Because all these– you can call
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: it economic D-Day but the Iranians are going to respond
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: to economic D-Day with ballistic missiles. Yeah, yeah.
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: And it's just– it's smashing up this institution which I
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: got to tell you like whatever you think of the
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: international system, the G20 is like that's your place. That's
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: where you can actually– get the most done and it
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: was the most important institution in some ways of the
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: Obama era. That's where we coordinated the response to the
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: financial crisis and that's clearly not what they're doing. Like
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: they're just kind of taking their short-term obsessions and bringing
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: them into this forum and then bringing their racism into it.
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: I mean they don't get to choose like who's in
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: the G20. South Africa is in there and they're in
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: there because they were one of the biggest economies in
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: the world and also because they're representative of sub-Saharan Africa.
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: So they're kind of representing a region too and it
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: just shows again the utter lack of regard.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the Financial Times just reported Russia secretly helping Iran
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: develop supersonic cruise missiles. Leaks reveal a program behind one
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: of the most significant known transfers of military technology from
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: Moscow to Tehran.
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: This is what I told you. So Putin earlier today
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: met with the Iranian president and I speak some Putin.
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: He talked about how he admired what they were doing
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: in the war and we're going to help them wink, wink.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: That to me is Putin saying like, yeah, this kind
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: of stuff is going to happen. The Iranians are going
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: to get armed. I think Putin also suggested he would
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: help them kind of break this blockade, like resupply with
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: some stuff like overland. So we're just driving the Russians
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: and Iranians closer together. Russia, Iran, North Korea, China are
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: getting closer. The Indians are moving in that direction. Us
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: being so contemptuous of these other institutions that we built
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: Or driving people into the arms of each other, including
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: the Russians and the Chinese.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Did you see that Zelensky said that North Korea may
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: send another 50,000 troops to Russia?
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: That is a lot of people. That is a lot
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: of manpower.
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, Kim Jong-un doesn't seem that worried about this.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: It's been one of the best deals he's made because
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: it's revived the North Korean economy. Ben, as we were
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: preparing for this episode, I was procrastinating and checking out Twitter.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: I came across a video that had been posted and
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: then deleted by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Kavir. Have
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: you seen this thing?
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: I've seen– unfortunately, the algorithm tends to feed me the
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: Ben-Kavir content. OK.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: So let's watch what this gentleman posted. Yeah, let's see.
• 43:29
  Speaker 8: So this is a bunch of overweight Palestinians being marched
• 43:40
  Speaker 8: into what looks like a concentration camp.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: Now they're coming out skinny and crying. For those who
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: couldn't hear me over the soundtrack, Ben-Gavir was taking a
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: bunch of overweight Palestinians, bringing them into a concentration camp
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: on train tracks, and then they came out skinny and crying. Again,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: this was posted by the Minister of National Security. He's
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: part of the Israeli government. He's part of the Netanyahu coalition.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: His party, Jewish Power, has six seats in the Knesset
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: out of 120.
• 44:15
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, let's be very clear about this. There's no
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: question that's a concentration camp. Like there are walls, there's
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: barbed wire, there's a kind of guard tower. The inmates
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: are wearing drab, identical uniforms with numbers on them. They're
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: coming out skinny. This is not at all subtle. And
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: this guy is the national security minister of the state
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: of Israel. So is he extremist?
• 44:42
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: But he's an extremist who is in one of the
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: most important positions in the Israeli government that is in
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: charge of the police, that plays an enormous role in
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: the West Bank, that is fundamental to Bibi Netanyahu's political
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: survival these last several years. So he's both a fringe
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: character and a mainstream character. And I have not entered
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: this discourse. I will get out of it very quickly.
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: But we've got a lot of people in this country
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: that want to spend a lot of time poring over
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Thousands of hours.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: Of– We're done talking about the sound hiker and fucking
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Twitch streamers when like.
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: This is real life.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: A disproportionate amount of time spent talking about a Twitch
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: streamer compared to this gentleman who is in the Israeli government.
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: That's my– He's crazy. This is the only thing I'm
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: going to say about this. Crazy. Like Hassan is about
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: a five-minute drive from here right now.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Is what it is.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: In his house doing a stream and this guy is
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: helping run the fucking Israeli government.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: It's crazy.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: This is the actual problem. And– People can try to
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: not look at it. People can try to pretend it
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: doesn't exist. People can call you– I mean if I
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: said– because that objectively looks like Nazi concentration camps. Like
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: that's what it looks like. That's not– By design. That's
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: an objective reality. That's not my opinion. And if you
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: say that out loud, you get resolutions against you in
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: the congress. And then the national security minister of the
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: state of Israel posts that. And we're supposed to pretend
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: like it doesn't exist in the physical world.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: It's crazy stuff. Speaking of defeating right-wing psychos, Ben, the
• 46:11
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• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Vote Save America has identified 12 of the most beatable
• 46:16
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  Speaker 2: The New York Times reported that the floodwaters were so
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: strong that bodies have been found literally hundreds of miles
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: away in India. That's how strong these waters were. As
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: of Tuesday, more than 900 people are confirmed dead. Several
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: thousand more are missing. The Red Cross estimates that 90,000
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: people have been impacted by the disaster. Nepal's Ministry of
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Foreign Affairs said Monday that over 10,000 people have been
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: rescued so far, including 323 foreign nationals. Rescuers are still
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: trying to free hundreds of workers who are trapped in
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: tunnels at this hydropower site. We got this message from
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: CNN International correspondent Hanako Montgomery about those rescue efforts. Let's listen.
• 50:46
  Speaker 6: The focus of the story has been about the hydropower
• 50:49
  Speaker 6: plant workers. And we spoke to about a dozen or
• 50:54
  Speaker 6: so survivors, people who were rescued from those plants. And
• 50:58
  Speaker 6: What they saw was truly devastating. I mean, they were
• 51:02
  Speaker 6: in tunnels working when the flood happened. And they said
• 51:07
  Speaker 6: that if they hadn't climbed up higher in the tunnels,
• 51:11
  Speaker 6: if they didn't hang on to parts of the wall
• 51:15
  Speaker 6: tightly enough, then they would have been swept away in
• 51:17
  Speaker 6: the floods. And they saw a lot of their co-workers,
• 51:19
  Speaker 6: their friends, their family members swept away in the floods, too.
• 51:23
  Speaker 6: I'm also currently right now in Bharatpur. We are about
• 51:27
  Speaker 6: 60 miles south of the worst hit areas. But we're
• 51:32
  Speaker 6: in this area because a lot of bodies, hundreds of
• 51:35
  Speaker 6: bodies have been washing up in this area downstream from
• 51:41
  Speaker 6: the Himalayas.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: So the disaster is also increasing political tensions between Nepal
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: and China. And it's raised a bunch of questions about
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: whether China was sharing enough information about flood risks and
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: glacier levels. The Chinese have also removed videos and images
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: of the disaster from social media. They've been accused of
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: covering up the death toll in Tibet. So kind of
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: no surprise. Yeah.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: Not a lot of transparency.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: No, no. Remember that COVID thing? It's also a huge
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: challenge for Nepal's brand new government. A couple months ago,
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: we covered the election of Burlendra Shah, this 36-year-old engineer
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: and rapper who's now prime minister. He took power in March.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: There were these huge Gen Z-led protests. And now he
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: has to tackle this kind of unfathomable problem. disaster. Ben,
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is like just a climate change fever dream,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: I guess.
• 52:27
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: This is entirely a climate change phenomenon. That's why glaciers
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: are falling off of mountains. And I should say like
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: where we come into it, I'll try to pivot this
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: into something affirmative because there's a lot of negativity today,
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: but Nepal was responsible for less than 0.1% of total
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: greenhouse gas emissions. So how would you feel if you're
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: living in a country that did absolutely nothing to cause
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: man-made climate change And because these other rich countries, the
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: US and China, chief among them, did so little to
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: restrain their own emissions, you've now got like mass flooding
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: in your country. It demonstrates the kind of moral necessity
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: as well as the practical necessity to take not just
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: action to slow greenhouse gas emissions, but mitigation efforts, right?
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: The idea that we need to help countries prepare for
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: these kinds of things. And that leads into the USAID point.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: Like we don't have a USAID. Like usually that would
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: be the tip of the spear of our capacity to
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: help a country like Nepal deal with this. And so
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: once again, we see the cost of like big balls
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: and Elon Musk and their, you know, ketamine-fueled fever dream
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: at the beginning of the Trump administration. Now, again, the
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: affirmative part is to be like this is when we
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: ultimately can rebuild a different kind of U.S. foreign policy apparatus.
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: We're going to need to think about climate change and
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: climate mitigation and disaster response again. You know, so all
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: these things that are happening that we're seeing a lack
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: of response for, We're going to need not just a U.S.
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: space but kind of a collective effort to deal with
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: emergencies like this because they're going to keep happening.
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: I mean there's a great report in the New York
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: Times that said that climate change could erase as much
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: as 75 percent of the remaining glaciers by 2100. So
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: this is coming pretty quick.
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: Very scary. Speaking of ice, over in Iceland, Icelanders rejected
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: a referendum to restart talks to join the European Union.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: So to be clear, this was not a vote. about
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: joining the EU. It was a vote on whether Iceland
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: should restart talks with the EU about membership. Iceland had
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: applied in 2009, but they basically shut down talks in 2013.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: The vote was 52.8% against, 47.2% for, with over 82% turnout.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: Pretty damn good. This all came in the wake of
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: Trump's threats to take Greenland, but the referendum was moved
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: up a year after Trump mistakenly said Iceland four different
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: times when he was talking about his plan to annex Greenland.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: So funny how things happen. Iceland's already a member of NATO,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: which before the Trump era would help deter others from
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: invading you, especially members of NATO. But things change. The
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: fishing industry campaigned hard against the referendum because it would
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: force Iceland to open its territorial waters to other European ships.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: Not surprisingly, the rural areas where these fishermen live voted
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: against the referendum. The urban areas were for it. Iceland's
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: already in the EU single market. So they got a
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: lot of benefits of membership without being members. Ben, any
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: thoughts on this vote? And what do you think about
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: the pitch? I actually asked David Eby about this, that
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Canada should join the EU.
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: Well, I thought this was interesting. I kind of went
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: down the Iceland rabbit hole in this. Look, Iceland is
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: a fairly unique country, obviously, given its geographic circumstances and
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: its industries. But it's a good test case of how
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: does a small country deal with global chaos and instability, right?
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: Because the fundamental argument for coming into the EU fully
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: is that in a really fucking messed up world where
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: there's going to be a lot of conflict and there
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: are trade wars and all the rest of it, and
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: there's likely to be financial instability, that maybe it's better
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: off like tucking under the tent here, the EU, and
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: that that can provide us with security. The counter argument
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: would be the inverse, like in that kind of world,
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: like we need to kind of hunker down, do our
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: own thing, preserve our way of life, preserve our identity
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: and avoid these clubs, spare our fishing industry disruptions, that
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: kind of stuff. And so I thought it was like
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: an interesting test case of where opinion is in like
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: a very reasonable country, like Iceland is reasonable people. They
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: also had suffered mightily into the 2008 financial crisis, if
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: people remember. And so similarly, it's like, do we get
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: closer to these places or do we stay outside the club?
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: And it's yet another barometer that people are kind of
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: like clinging to their traditional identities. You know, like there's
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: a kind of sovereignty conscious nationalism. I'm not saying that,
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: you know, Icelandic nationalism is a little different than other places.
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: To me, that's like what's interesting about it. You know,
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: I'm an integrationist, so I probably would have been like
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: one of those urban Icelandic people who voted to join. But,
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: you know, clearly people are not sold yet. And Canada
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: is interesting because what Carney has to demonstrate is like,
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: Is there some alternative way in which medium-sized countries bigger
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: than Iceland can build trade agreements and supply chains and
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: regulatory regimes together? Or do you just got to like
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: jump in the club that's available? I think he would
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: prefer the former than the latter. But we're going to
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: see if that's possible.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: Last story. We wanted to circle back to South Korea last.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: we covered a lot a couple of years ago because
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: of all the madness there, but we haven't touched on
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: it in a while. So listeners might remember a former
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: South Korean president, Yoon Suk-yool's declaration of martial law back
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: in 2024. It did not go well for him at
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: the time. Uh, and now Yoon is set to spend
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: the rest of his life in jail. Uh, his wife
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: now was also in a bunch of trouble. She was
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: the Genesis of a bunch of political scandals during his tenure.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: For example, in 2022, she was caught on camera accepting
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: an expensive Dior handbag. Um, But this year, she received
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: both a seven-year sentence and a separate four-year sentence for bribery,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: stock manipulation, and doling out political favors. But where this
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: gets weird and interesting is that her political downfall has
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: also ensnared an 83-year-old woman named Han Hak-ja, who is
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: the widow of the founder of the Unification Church. Listen,
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: you may have heard of Reverend Sun Myung Moon. He
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: called himself the Messiah. He built this cult-like church following.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Han is now like kind of the heir apparent of
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: the church. She is accused of giving Mrs. Kim, the
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: former first lady of South Korea, about $ 60, 000 worth of gifts.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: The court said the gifts were bribes to increase the
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: church's political power and influence. So the Unification Church has
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: a lot of business interests. The Financial Times said they
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: range from skiing to like ocean and golf resorts, construction, defense,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: and automotive parts. They also own the Washington Times. Newt
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: Gingrich is a columnist there. He wrote a column asking
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: Trump to intervene in Han's case. Weird shit. The New
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Republic had a great breakdown of the whole story. They
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: pointed out that the church paid Trump $ 2. 5 million for
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: speeches in 2021 and 2022. Here's a clip of him
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: praising Han.
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: I want to thank the Universal Peace Federation, and in particular, Dr.
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: Hawk Jahan Moon, A tremendous person for her incredible work
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: on behalf of peace all over the world.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: So the Unification Church– also remember the guy who assassinated
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he did so
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: because of Abe's ties to the Unification Church. The shooter's
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: mom gave away all her money to the church. That
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: was a big thing with the Moonies. You're asked to
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: like sign away your life savings. So it harmed a
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: lot of innocent people in Japan and South Korea.
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: And then the U.S. has just these fucking weird longstanding
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: ties to the Republican Party that I think date back
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: to Nixon. So very weird stuff all around and just
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: kind of like interesting to see. You know, Yun-Suk Yul
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: gets drunk one night, declares martial law, and it pulls
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: a string that unravels to here.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: To Donald Trump like taping videos in front of strange–
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: From space? Backgrounds in space. Never before– you know there's
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: some kind of profit motive for Trump. I'm just going
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: to guess. We don't know. We have to make that disclaimer.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: Has he pronounced an Asian name that well?
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: He nailed that one.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: He nailed that one. There's got to be some incentive
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: in it for him. That's the first point. The second
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: point is these $ 60, 000 in gifts, like you don't think
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: that– in a country where– this is what's interesting to me.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: They put like almost all their former presidents in prison.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: Like you got to– this stuff is going to get out.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: Like how do you think you're going to get away
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: with taking the $ 60, 000 worth of gifts? Like is it
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: really worth it?
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: It's got to be the typical iceberg.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's got to be more to it than that probably.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: And the only thing I want to say about The
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: Washington Times because it triggered me in a way. I
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: know you had a birthday recently, Tommy. So happy birthday.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: And you are not at my advanced age and never
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: will catch up. Um, that's one of the things about
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: father time. But do you remember the days when the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: right wing media in this country was like the Washington times?
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan once said that the Washington times, the first
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: thing he read.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: Each day, you know, I'd love to go back.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: I know it was the Washington times is the only
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: game in town. Then Fox news comes along and now
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: it's this like 31 flavors of madness. Uh, but by
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: the way, to your point, like Han and her chief
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: of staff, I think they're accused of embezzling $ 7 million
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: in church funds and then they raided her place and
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: they found $ 26 million in like a safe in the bedroom.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: It's also one of these churches, if you go down
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: the rabbit hole, no matter how much you read, you
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: can't understand it. I can't describe what they believe. It's
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: this kind of cultish thing that is all these business
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: interests and this rich guy who likes to spread money
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: around to politicians. It's just a very odd eccentric part
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: of geopolitics.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: The whole thing is odd.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: It's like the MEK or something.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, like two of Han's sons were January 6th. And
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: they also run their own like spinoff fringe crazy church
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: now called the Rod of Iron Ministries, which is like
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: infamous for having the worshippers hold semi-automatic rifles. Like just
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: the overlap of these.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: Weren't there mass weddings? Oh, yeah.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: The moonies at the mass weddings. The whole thing is
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: just fucking bizarre.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: Very strange.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: Cults. So, of course, the Trump people glom onto it.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: They're like, how can I get a piece of this?
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: Any organization with a little like cohesiveness that they think
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: they can bolt on to their political coalition, they'll do it.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: And a kitty somewhere.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Maha or RFK.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 9: Sure.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: Come on over.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: Whatever it takes. All right. That is it for Ben
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: and I portion of the show. But stick around for
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: my interview with British Columbia Premier David Eby. We're going
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: to talk about the US-Canada trade war, what Trump wants
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: out of it, the reaction in Canada, the economic impact. Very,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: very interesting interview. You will want to check it. So
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: stick around for that. Pod Save the World is brought
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: to you by the new podcast Burden of Proof, Luigi Mangione.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: From our friends at ABC Audio, in 2020, Burden of Proof,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Luigi Mangione is ripped from the headlines. You already know
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: the story or you think you do. In December of 2024,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: shots rang out on a Manhattan sidewalk and UnitedHealthcare CEO
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: Brian Thompson was shot dead. Luigi Mangione has pled guilty
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: to federal charges, but there's so much more to this story.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: In his new podcast, Burden of Proof, Luigi Mangione, ABC
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: News legal analyst Brian Buckmeyer goes deep into the case
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: and what it means. He'll unpack the murder itself, the
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: two men at the heart of the story, and how
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: this case has affected the conversation about healthcare in America.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: Leave your preconceptions at the door and follow Burden of Proof,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: Luigi Mangione, wherever you get your podcasts, or listen ad-free
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: on Apple Podcasts by subscribing to 2020 True Crime Plus. Again,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: that's Burden of Proof, Luigi Mangione. I'm here today with
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: David Eby, the Premier of British Columbia, Canada. Premier Eby,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: thank you so much for doing the show. Well, thanks
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: for having me. I really do appreciate it. So we're
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: obviously talking about the ongoing trade war that President Trump
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: has launched on Canada. It's been a rocky couple of
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: years in U.S.-Canada relations. Trump has called Canada the 51st
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: state repeatedly. He suggested the U.S. would annex Canada. He
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: slapped tariff after tariff on Canada. He's insulted Canadian leaders
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: and the country. First question, what is the mood in
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: Canada about the U.S. in the wake of all this?
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: And do you worry that public opinion could make it
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: harder in the long run to kind of find an
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: agreement on a deal?
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 9: Well, people are pissed off. There's just no two ways
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 9: about it. And you can see it in any number
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 9: of indicators. Like we've got friends and family and longtime
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 9: relationships in the United States as Canadians.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 10: And our trips to the U.S.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: Are downhill.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 9: More than 25% were buying Canadian products and basically any
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 9: other product other than American products right now. And there's
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 9: an ongoing liquor boycott. And I'm not sure that's really
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 9: gotten through the noise in the United States to just
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 9: how deeply unhappy Canadians are with the American administration.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 10: And it's a conflicted feeling.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 9: Because we still have good relationships with Americans. it's the
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 9: president and the White House we're really struggling with and
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 9: I guess the broader administration right now.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's a totally understandable decision to boycott U.S. items.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: But then in practice, that hurts the human beings producing
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: those in America and just average people who own a
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: winery in California or whatever it is. So it just
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: feels like these decisions by political leaders are hurting everybody
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: on both sides. And so when I talk to trade
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: experts or foreign policy experts about the talks between the U.S.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: and Canada and why they broke down, they'll tell me
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: it was three buckets. You know, the first was tariff
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: and economic, the tariffs and the economic impact on Canadian industries,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: like the auto industry, for example. The second was there
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: were provisions that felt like an attack on Canadian sovereignty
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: and the ability for Canada to make bilateral trade agreements.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: And the third thing they'll reference is, you know, these
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: cultural points, French language protections in Canada, et cetera. But
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: then when I look at the Canadians who are commenting
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: on on clips we put out here at Crooked Media
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: about this issue from Canada. They will say, nope, we've
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: been done with you guys in America for a very
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: long time. This is about sovereignty. This is about Canada
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: just putting its foot down and not getting pushed around anymore.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: What's the right answer in your view?
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 10: Both, if that can be true.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 9: At the table were elected officials who were having serious
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 9: conversations at the federal level about trade negotiations and what
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 9: the prime minister and I think our federal team reasonably
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 9: understood to be a trade negotiation that it devolved into
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 9: something different. Like, you know, you can't have trade agreements
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 9: with these third countries. And also, you know, we don't
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 9: want to see French language on packaging and those kinds
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 9: of things, which were non-starters for them.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 10: So that was true for the elected officials at the table.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 9: For Canadians, there were polls out that said more than
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 9: half of Canadians, almost 60% of Canadians said no more
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 9: concessions to the U.S. We've all watched countries make concessions
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 9: to the U.S. to this president. And then the president
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 9: comes back for more. Canada has made concessions to the U.S.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 9: We've stepped back from digital services tax and we've stepped
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 9: back from other initiatives that the president found objectionable, hoping
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 9: that that would. And I say we, these were decisions
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 9: made by the prime minister. hoping that that would keep
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 9: us moving forward. But the president just kept coming back
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 9: for more. And I think everyone just understands that the
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 9: agreement's not worth anything, basically, from the moment the president
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 9: finishes signing it.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 10: It's what's next.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 9: And we're just done with it, I think, as a
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 9: collective group. And so it's fine to say you're done
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 9: with it. The US is a huge market. We're deeply integrated.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 9: Trade continues, all these other pieces. But almost to a person,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 9: certainly Canadians and elected officials, how do we diversify away
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 9: from the U.S.? How do we build other relationships? How
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 9: do we protect ourselves? This relationship is not going back
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 9: to the way it was before. And how do we
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 9: make sure that we're more.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: Independent of the U.S.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 9: Because we allowed ourselves to get too integrated and fail
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 9: to keep our eye on the prize of ensuring that
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 9: we're an independent country that can stand on our own
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 9: two feet? And that's what our project is now.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: I think one poll said 76% of Canadians supported The
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: prime minister's decision to walk away from the talks, which
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: is just an unheard of level of support for any
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: issue here in the United States. Last Friday, Trump released
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: this executive order where he renamed Lake Ontario Lake America.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Over the weekend, he posted a video of Canadian geese
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: with like Trump hair and machine guns, which again doesn't.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: don't really get how it makes sense because they're Canadian geese,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: but whatever. Obviously, this is childish and stupid, but sometimes
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: symbolic gestures like this have the most potency in political debates.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: What's the reaction been so far in Canada to the
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: Lake America nonsense? it's so cringe.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 9: It's just, uh, deeply embarrassing for us on your behalf. Uh,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 9: and the, you, you'd think that, uh, the reaction would be, uh, rage,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 9: but most everyone's just like, I mean, what? It feels
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 9: like parody, uh, like it's crossed over a line and, and,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 9: and if anything, it, it undermines some of the seriousness
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 9: that I assume the president wants to bring to his
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 9: concerns with Canada. Uh, so we just, you know, we
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 9: just carry on, um, I feel sorry for Americans right now. Um,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 9: you know, you guys, you're grappling like we are with
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 9: a cost of living crisis. The president seems totally indifferent
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 9: to it. Uh, he's destroying your reputation on a global basis.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 10: Like if Canadians are your enemy, uh, then who's left.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: And, uh, and you.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 9: Know, it, it just, uh, I feel, I feel awful
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 9: for you that this is happening and, and we are
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 9: losing jobs and this is having impact and this is
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 9: hurting British Columbians and Canadians and, and, you know, we
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 9: hope for a brighter day of a better administration. But
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 9: to be totally blunt, the Democrats have not been clear
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 9: whether or not if they get elected, they're going to
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 9: end this, like what has been described as the stupidest
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 9: trade war in history.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 10: And I hope they do.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 9: I hope Democrats come and say, look, you know, if
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 9: we get elected, we're going to end this dumb trade
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 9: war because we all benefit when we work together as
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 9: Team North America.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 10: And I think that's true still.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: Oh, I think, I mean, look, I haven't talked to
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: a lot of Democrats about this. I think there's almost
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: no doubt that they will want to unwind this madness
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: because it's just going to hurt us economically. Let's talk
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: about the economic impact. Canada is looking at tariffs on
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: about $ 20 billion worth of goods, potentially half a percentage
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: shaved off of GDP. There was one analysis that found
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: Canada could lose 90,000 jobs because of the trade war.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: The CBC says that these newly tariff items represent about
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: 13% of British Columbia's exports to the U.S., Can you
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: understand kind of in practice what this impact would be
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: on businesses and individuals in B.C. if it continues?
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 9: Sure.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 9: For us, you know, we're one of the least exposed
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 9: provinces to the United States because we're on the Pacific coast.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 10: We trade a lot with Asia. And still, the U.S.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 10: is by far and away our largest trading partner.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 9: And the sectors that are particularly hit by the president's actions,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 9: the softwood lumber sector in British Columbia, we've always had
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 9: a tense relationship with the U.S.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 10: Under multiple administrations.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 9: Around softwood lumber, but the bottom line is Americans cannot
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 9: provide as much wood as America consumes. And so what's
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 9: happened with the national security tariffs, if you can believe it,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 9: on Canadian softwood, we now have worse market access to
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 9: the United States than Russia and Europe. So you are
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 9: preferring Russian and European imports to Canadian lumber imports to.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 10: The United States right now.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 9: And that means and has led to layoffs of Canadians
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 9: and the closure of mills the softwood lumber prices are
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 9: already very low. And so when you couple that with
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 9: the tariffs, it has an impact. But also, it has
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 9: led us to pursuing with the federal government, encouraging them
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 9: to pursue free trade agreements with India, for example, that
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 9: does currently have a tariff on Canadian softwood of 10%.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: And if that's.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 9: Reduced to zero under a free trade agreement, we're going
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 9: to have a significant new market there.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 10: So, you know, this is having impact.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: We are pivoting.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 10: And it's kind of disgraceful, in my opinion, that.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 9: that our ally, the United States, has decided to prioritize
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 9: Russia and lumber imports from that country over Canadian imports.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that seems insane. Prime Minister Carney has promised basically
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: a dollar-for-dollar tariff response. You've suggested he should go further.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: You've floated ideas like reconsidering the purchase of the F-35
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: fighter jets. You've also encouraged Canadians to kind of like
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: take this into their own hands to avoid traveling to
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: the U.S., to buy local products instead of US options
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: on Canadian shelves. How much room for escalation do you
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: think there is on the Canadian side?
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 10: I think the prime.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 9: Minister's measure has been a very, I mean, it literally
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 9: is the definition of proportionate response. It is dollar for
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 9: dollar in the same areas, except for some seafood areas
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 9: that would have affected the cost of food.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 10: For a lot of British Columbians and Canadians.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 9: And so that is kind of the minimum to protect
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 9: Canadian businesses in these sectors and encourage Canadians to buy
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 9: Canadian rather than American to replace. And so that piece
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 9: is great and it's helpful for a Canadian business, but
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 9: I'm not sure that it sends the message about how
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 9: we benefit when we work together. So the idea that
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 9: you get kicked in the back by a friend and
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 9: then you turn around and you spend $ 12 billion on
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 9: fighter jets from that friend and integrate your military further
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 9: is like, How does that make any sense? We've got
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 9: a great proposal from Europe for a bunch of jets
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 9: from Saab. They're going to build a bunch of factories
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 9: in Canada to put them together.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 10: Let's just move on with that.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 9: Let's deepen our ties with Europe and the rest of
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 9: the world instead of the United States. This is what
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 9: we should be looking at as well. And it doesn't
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 9: mean this isn't what's going to happen, but I'm encouraging
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 9: the prime minister in that direction. And the reasons, I think,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 9: speak for themselves.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: For listeners at home, you should understand that you're not
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: in Prime Minister Carney's political party There has been broad
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: support though for his response so far, including from conservatives
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: as well as folks to his left. As these tariffs
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: bite and citizens get hurt more or pissed off or
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: sort of– maybe there's cracks in how different politicians think
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: we should– Canada should respond to the US. The political
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: waters can get rockier. How durable do you think kind
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: of the support for Carney is right now and the
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: sense of nationalism and unity?
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 9: You know, one of the great defining characteristics of Canadians
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 9: that we always point to is that we are a
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 9: different country from America. And you're like, well, how is that?
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 9: It is a defining thing we think about as Canadians.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 10: What are we as Canadians?
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: Well, we're not Americans.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 9: And having that identity as a separate country under direct
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 9: attack by the president, I mean, it might seem silly
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 9: to Americans, but this is very important to me.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 10: It's important to all Canadians.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 9: That we're able to set our own destiny, including a
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 9: destiny that's closely tied with the United States. So we
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 9: can choose that as Canadians. And that's what's under attack.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 9: And that's what the president and J.D. Vance and all
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 9: these guys love to bring up. The 51st state and
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 9: all of this. Canada should just, they want to be
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 9: the benefits of the state without becoming a state and
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 9: on and on.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 10: It is constant energy.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 9: For this Canadian movement and the willingness to make sacrifice
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 9: for it. And Canadians have had enough. And I think
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 9: there is a lot of juice in the tank for this. Obviously,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 9: as the costs start to mount, there will be reckonings
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 9: in Canada on this question. But ultimately, there is a
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 9: significant majority that supports this. And, and, Also, the lesson
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 9: that we're not going to go back to the way
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 9: things were before, which is an important lesson for Canadians
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 9: to have taken from this and one that needed to
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 9: be taken from it.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, I mean, Prime Minister Carney's sort of core
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: argument was laid out during this speech in Davos. I
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: forget when, earlier this year or last year, who knows
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: anymore what time is a flat circle. He said, it's
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: time for Canada to move on from America. It's time
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: to build this broader alliance of so-called middle powers. I
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: think that makes a lot of sense in theory. If
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: you're Canadian, it's a little more challenging in practice. How
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: do you think he's doing? And also, one idea I've
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: seen floated is that Canada could join the European Union
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: and diversify away from the United States that way. What
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: do you make of that proposal?
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 9: Well, you can see what the prime minister is doing,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 9: in my opinion. He's quite transparent about it, including in
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 9: his speech at Davos, is that he is seeking to
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 9: deepen our relationship, including with the EU, but also with India,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 9: with Asia. The APEC meetings are going to be happening
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 9: In China, Canada will have a strong presence there, seeking
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 9: relationships with other Asian countries. We are a Pacific trading country,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 9: and Asia Pacific will be crucial for us, and that's
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 9: where a lot of growth is happening. So I think
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 9: what you're going to see going forward is Canada seeking to.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 10: Deepen relationships around the world.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 9: The Prime Minister has negotiated a number of additional free
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 9: trade agreements, and there's more to come. And we're just
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 9: going a different direction than the United States in terms
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 9: of our global relationships. It will be a long-term benefit
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 9: to Canada, we can never replace the US market. And
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 9: both of those things can be true at the same time.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 9: It would be great to have a strong, productive, positive
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 9: relationship with the US again. And at the same time,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 9: we can't assume that that will be the case.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 10: And bluntly, I don't expect it.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: There's a referendum coming up in Alberta where Albertans will
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: decide whether to hold like a Brexit-style referendum on independence
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: from Canada. Earlier this year, it came out that some
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: Alberta separatists met with Trump administration officials, a move you
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: called treason. I'd love for you to sort of unpack
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: your feeling on that meeting and also give listeners a
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: sense of whether you think that separatist movements like the
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: one in Alberta are likely to come to fruition and
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: the level of political support there.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 9: It's an unfortunate thing that's happening in Alberta, and I
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 9: think that most Canadians are concerned about it. Having watched Brexit,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 9: I think that anyone who says that this is a
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 9: foregone conclusion that Alberta will vote a certain direction needs
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 9: to give their head a shake. It is a serious
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 9: threat to the sovereignty and the integrity of Canada. And
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 9: I think everyone should treat it that way. And we'll
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 9: watch to see what the results are. Currently, the polling suggests,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 9: just like it did in Brexit, that the vast majority
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 9: of Albertans will not support this. But it is what
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 9: it is and people will be voting and polls have
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 9: been wrong before. So I certainly feel anxious about it.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 9: The concern that I had, that I have, is that
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 9: the United States is actively involved in and interfering in
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 9: the referendum, which is like an astonishing thing for me
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 9: to say.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: And, you know, I.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 9: There's always been concern around the influence of American culture
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 9: and politics on Canada, just given the scale of the
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 9: United States compared to Canada. But actual meetings with separatists
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 9: and they say assurances made to them about what life
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 9: would look like in a post-separation environment in terms of
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 9: relationships with the United States and the 51st state references
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 9: and so on and maps and being released that show
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 9: Canada as part of the United States and whatever, like
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 9: it is deeply.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: Concerning to me.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 9: And I think just beyond the pale and just way
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 9: beyond anything that we've seen in our relationships previously and
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 9: a departure that doesn't get noted or commented on particularly
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 9: and in a worrying way, because if that bridge can
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 9: be crossed with little apparent public conversation, then, you know,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 9: what else can we reasonably expect in Canada? And do
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 9: we need to consider our relationship with the U.S. in
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 9: terms of interference here on the same plane as we
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 9: do consider interference from China or from Russia or from
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 9: other countries in terms of protecting Canadians?
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: One element that was apparently on the table in these
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: talks was that Prime Minister Carney reportedly revived the Keystone
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: Pipeline or put that on the table in some form
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: or fashion. What's your reaction to that? Do you think
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: that should be something that is negotiated still?
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 10: I understand why it's part of the conversation.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 9: You know, the president's adventurism in the Middle East has
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 9: led to incredibly high oil and gas prices. Canada's a
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 9: reliable provider of oil and gas products to the United States.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 9: And I can understand why that's a priority of the president's.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 9: And certainly it's something that the prime minister has been
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 9: open to. The thing that strikes me is the bizarre
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 9: assurances from the administration that Americans don't need Canada in
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 9: terms of energy because you've got Venezuela in You know,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 9: Canada produces five times more oil and gas than Venezuela
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 9: does in terms of a stable partner for providing energy.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 9: And British Columbia provides a huge amount of electricity down
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 9: the West Coast, Ontario to the eastern parts of the
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 9: United States. I just can't fathom that a president is
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 9: leading you in the direction of ever higher energy prices
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 9: and reliance on an unstable energy partner. But, I mean,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 9: that is where he is taking things. And it seems
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 9: strange to me. In terms of oil and gas and
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 9: climate change and overall concerns about that, I think, you know,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 9: we need to be doing important work together that has
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 9: been completely abandoned since the end of the Biden administration
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 9: and has completely changed the conversation about carbon emissions internationally, unfortunately,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 9: in a way that is quite damning given the wildfires
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 9: we saw this past summer in British Columbia, in the
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 9: United States and across Canada and in Europe. So hopefully
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 9: the U.S. assumes a leadership role again at some point
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 9: on this important issue.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the weather patterns are losing their mind. Europe is
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: being baked all summer. There are reports that next weekend
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: here in Los Angeles, we might have a hurricane, which
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: is not something we're used to here. So yeah, I
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: wish we were talking about bigger things like climate change
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: and artificial intelligence and not stupid AI photos of geese
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: by our president. Let me just end with a statement,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: which is that to you and to anyone listening from Canada,
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: most Americans think this sucks too. We find this embarrassing
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: as well. We want the president to stop threatening our
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: very friendly neighbors to the north. So sorry for this bullshit.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: But hopefully, you know, we can get past this guy together.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: And I appreciate your time coming on the show.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 9: It's that plain speaking that endears Americans to Canadians. And
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 9: thanks for that. Thanks for having me on the show.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 9: And to the Democrats out there, send that strong message
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 9: that we'll rebuild our relationship if you're elected in the midterms.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 9: And generally, that would be a positive thing. We look
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 9: to that kindly from Canada.
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: Well said. Thank you. Thanks again to Premier Eby for
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: joining the show. And I'll see you at Unification Church
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: on Sunday, Ben. I'll bring you a purse.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: Is there a cut?
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll get you a cut. Is there some gifts?
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: I'll get you some cash. Don't worry.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: Okay, thanks.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: Pod Save the World is a Crooked Media production. Our
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: show is produced by Ilona Minkowski, Michael Goldsmith, and Anisha Banerjee.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hethcote, Jordan Cantor, Kenny Moffitt,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: David Tolles, and Ryan Young. Our staff is proudly unionized
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: with the Writers Guild of America East.