Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Hot Again | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/21/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Hot Again | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/21/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the bruins
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day it is anymore. But I
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: don't even know what day it is anymore. Man's back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this, I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slumpy praise, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up? Everybody's towed back with you with
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Toadstool Sports, Tuesday, April twenty First, we went to and
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Zhero on the show yesterday. We got the win with
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: my Boston Red Sox, even though Sunny Gray landed weird
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and injured his leg or something, so he was out
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: of the game, probably in the third inning or something,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: so it was looking pretty dicey at that point. After
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox were winning two to up. Thing, they
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: blew that and then it was two to two. I
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: don't believe they trailed in the game, unless maybe they
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: did right after Gray went out. Maybe they did trail
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: very briefly three to two maybe, But other than that,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I know they were winning eight to three late in
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: the game, and then the bullpen almost blew it. They
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: had to bring in Chapman to try to fix that
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: shit in the ninth inning, and dude, it was a Rafaela.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Another horrible fielding mistake by him. This guy, I don't
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: know what he's doing out there. This is a coaching thing, dude.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: You go from being like this really good fielder to
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: not even knowing where the ball is gonna go, Like
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: he's getting the wrong jump on the ball every single time.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: And it happened again in the ninth inning. He should
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: have fielded it on one hot for like a routine,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: single type of thing, and one run would have scored.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, the outcome of the game would have been
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: the same except one few run for Detroit, like Chapman
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: got the next guy out anyway, But still, I don't
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: know what you're doing. Man, He lets the ball go
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: behind him, another run scores because of that, it winds
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: up being a double or actually it probably should have
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: been an error on him, a single plus an error.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe that is how it was ruled. I don't know,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: but it makes no sense. And then after it happens,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: he's like reading off of this like laminated index card, like, yeah,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: the answer is clearly gonna be in there, Like, what
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: the fuck is going on here with this fucking team?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Fire the manager, Fire the coaches. I'm done with this shit, man,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: I'm done with it. The fundamentals on this Red Sox
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: team are piss poor, pathetic, and now they have to
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: go into a series against the Yankees and we're gonna
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: talk about that game where the pitching matchup in tonight's
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: game is the one that's most beneficial to the Red Sox,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna lose. So yeah, this is
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: just great, dirty sock. What's up? Thanks for hanging out
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: money on the money line? What are we doing? Oh yeah, well,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: if you play an underdog, then yet, if you play
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the underdog, you have to sprinkle on the money line.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Especially yeah, I mean those are single digit underdogs. Yeah,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: for sure, ten percent on the money line. Although both
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: those teams had to make massive comebacks to do what
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: they did, especially in Minnesota. I think it was their
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: biggest comeback in playoff history. Minnesota, really, Denver and the Knicks,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: neither team should have lost that game. Those games were
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: pretty much over as far as the covering is concerned.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I mean I was correct about both covers there, which
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: you know, covering is probably a different story. But those
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: teams blowing those leads was fucking ridiculous. Yeah, I mean,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I did not recommend that as a play on the Hawks,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: just just to be clear. I mean, that was a
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: very very weak opinion for me, because I just the
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: NBA board was terrible yesterday and it was just like
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: whatever this Like, you know, if I had to pick
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: a team that I thought was gonna be the one
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: to actually pull out an outright win, it was gonna
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: be Atlanta And that was just because of how crazy
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: variant they are. But it's a massive, massive risk because
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: if you, like again, like there's no way that the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Hawk should have won that game outright. They had to
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: overcome like an eleven point deficit I think in the
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter. And if you're on the wrong side of
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: three point variants like that, which is probably gonna be
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: usually the case with the Hawks, you're fucked pretty much.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So well, all right, thank you. I don't know, I
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: feel like I should only give up my plays on
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the show now and stop talking about everything else though,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: because I don't know, I don't want to mislead people here.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I fucking hate the Lakers, both in this game tonight
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and in I'm gonna make a very strong case against
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: the Lakers tonight, and no, I mean I hate the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Lakers in general because they're just an asshole for like
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: they're a fraudulent Hollywood team. They're bullshit. The Lakers are
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: complete fraud They're not winning tonight. All right, let's go
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: into baseball here we have all evening action. I think
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: in all the sports today, Houston at Cleveland is the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: first game. Houston won yesterday nine to two, which I
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: was correct about the Houston lean in that game yesterday.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I thought it looked like a bounce back for Houston.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Didn't really expect a blowout win out of Houston. Houston's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: bullpen is still pretty bad. Houston did use three relief
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. Cleveland also used three. Cleveland's bullpen has not
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: been that much better. Really, Houston's is really bad, like
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: still a bottom tier bullpen by far. You could make
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the argument there's still the worst. Cleveland is in the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: middle of the pack with their bullpen. Era is pretty iffy.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I don't really like either of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: these bullpens. Hitting wise, Houston has hit well this year.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Their number two in offensive ops still Cleveland is eighteenth. Yeah,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: you gotta give Houston an offensive edge here. Starting pitching,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: you you do not give Houston the starting pitching edge, however,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: with Ryan Weiss pitching, who dude, who is this guy?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: He's twenty nine, he hasn't pitched in the majors before
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: this year. He's made one career start now and that
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: didn't go particularly well. It looks like he's probably gonna
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: go maybe three innings max. He went three and two
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: thirds in his one start. I don't know if that's
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: an indicator of much. His numbers are bad of six
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: point seven five RA two point oh five whip. These
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: are horrible numbers. Eighteen to ten strike a walk raising
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: along with twenty hits, a lot of fourteen to two
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: thirds innings plus four home runs allowed. You cannot trust
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: this guy at all. Yeah, Cleveland hasn't seen him, but
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Houston is just like they don't even have anybody like
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: to fill out this starting rotation, which is why they're
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: going with this guy. Doesn't look good, especially when he's
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: going up against Parker Messik, who is a very talented
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: young pitcher one point oh five VRA points have an
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: eight whip on the season. The problem is, I don't
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: know if we really want to play on him today
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: because he's coming up a one hundred and twelve pitch
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: performance where he took a no hitter into the ninth
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: inning and then they Dude, I don't know why they
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: left him in after that. Dude, that was so stupid.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: He literally allowed a single first pitch in the top
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: of the ninth inning. I don't know what was going
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: on there. Dude, Why do they leave him in after that?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: As soon as he lost the no hitter? Take him
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: out of the game, you know, I don't know why
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: they left him in. He wanted to belong two runs.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: It was an excellent performance from him, though against the Orioles.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: After a performance like that, I could see him being
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: in a letdown mode here. I'm not gonna say he's
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be bad, because I mean, he's allowed two or
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: fewer and runs in every outing this year, but this
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: could be a bit of a lesser performance from him here.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: The way that that last effort went that, plus the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: amount of pitches that he had to throw in that game,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I don't love him in this game, although generally I
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: do think he's awesome. He does not have any numbers
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: against Houston, which usually is an advantage because the opposing
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: hitters are gonna have to figure him out. You know,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I was thinking like, maybe after that performance, you want
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: to fade Messe in his next start. You can't do it.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: You can't play Houston in this game with Weiss on
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the mound. That's just yeah, this is a no go. Uh,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: this game is yeah, I don't want to do anything
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: with it. Cleveland is at minus one forty two. They
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: dropped for minus one sixty for some reason. Ninety one
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, ninety four percent of the cash
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: on Cleveland. I might still even have to lean to
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Cleveland after all that. They have the better starting pitcher here,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, even though it's not even that good.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Houston's likely to go to their awful bullpen earlier than
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is probably. I just don't see it. I think
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I still lean Cleveland in that game, but I don't
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: want to do anything with it. Josh, what's up, Lightning?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I agree with the lightning, all right. Next game up
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: is already one of my plays. It's just the way
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: that it is. Man, I have two plays in baseball.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give one playing hockey and one in the NBA.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Finally getting into NBA playoffs. I know I've been treading
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: lightly so far. Hold on, I gotta get rid of these.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Oh my ticker isn't up. My heart is dead man.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: There you go, the ticker is up now. I gotta
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: not forget to do that because we're on this nice
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: run right now after two and oh yesterday thirty twelve
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: and two. There you go? All right? Yeah, this next
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: game up is a play. I have two baseball plays here.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: One is a side, which is this game. The other
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: is a total in the later slates. And then yeah,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: one NBA play, one NHL play all right, Cincinnati and
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Cincinnati is gonna be my play in this
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: game on the money line here. These teams did play
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: yesterday though, and situationally you can make the argument for
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay here because they did return home yesterday. And
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about how that return home spot
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: is not a good spot usually and a lot of
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: times the team will not be fully focused in that game,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: and then if they don't do well, which yeah, Cincinnati
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: won that game six to one, a lot of times
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: that team will bounce back and perform better in the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: next game. But I just don't see it with this matchup.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going with the matchup here, I think it's too
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: much of an advantage to Cincinnati, so I don't really
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: see the situation being enough of a factor here. And
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: while yes, I think Cincinnati is not as good as
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: people think they are, and maybe Tampa Bay, well, Tampa Bay,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: they've actually probably overperformed so far this year, though I
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: don't think they're that bad. But yeah, I think both
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: of these teams are probably not quite as good as
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: people think they are right now. But we're looking at
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup, which I'm gonna get to in
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: a second. The bullpens are a little bit of a
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: factor here as well. Cincinnati used three relieved pitchers yesterday,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Tampa used two. But Tampa's bullpen is really good struggling,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: although they moved up a little bit, but they still
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: have an ERA over five their twentieth right now and
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: whip this is still not a trustworthy Tampa Bay bullpen.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: And while I don't really think Cincinnati's bullpen can continue
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: doing what they've done, they've been much better than Tampa's
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: so far, so I think Cincinnati does have a bullpen
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: edge here. They're ERA in the twos even though it
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: might go up a bit. Also a little bit more
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: impressive given that they play in a hit or friendly ballpark. Offensively,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay does have a better offense. Can't really deny that.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: At the moment, they are thirteenth in OPS, so I
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: don't think they're a great offense. I think their bottom
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: three is basically like a hole. Although Cincinnati's offense has
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: been terrible, and yes, we're gonna have to deal with that,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: but I think we can deal with that in this game.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Given the starting pitching matchup here. Cincinnati has chased Burns
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: on the mound. Man. He's a guy that I think
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: you want to play on or just don't play the
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: side in the game. I don't really imagine too many
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: scenarios are I want to go against this guy, and
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I think he's still under the radar. He's also a
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: fellow Italian because he was born in Naples, Italy. Two
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: point four to two ERA one point seven whip really
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: good stuff there. Definitely, you know, has big time stuff,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: major league stuff, for sure. He's been a little bit
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: worse in his last couple of outings. Well really just
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the outing against Anaheim wasn't good. That was at home,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: by the way, and then he bounced back pretty nicely
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: with a shutout against the Giants, although the Giants are
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: a weak team offensively overall twenty two strikeouts of twenty
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: two and a third in he's nine walks, He's got
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: to get that under control. He has alternated wild and
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: not wild, though, and that would mean this is due
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: to be a wild start, but I'm not sure that
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: that's really gonna be the case here. He's also only
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: allowed fifteen hits this season, so he's been really difficult
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: to hit. Usually he does get a lot of strikeouts,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and the wildness is really the one concern still with him.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: But Tima Bay has never seen him before, and you know,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: I like that when you have this young pitcher who
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: you know is good and basically they've proven that at
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: this point and this lineup has never faced him before,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I think that picture is gonna have an extra advantage.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: So I like Burns for that reason. And the unfamiliarity
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: on one side, well, we also have a ton of
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: familiarity on the other side because Tampa Bay has Stephen
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Mott's pitching and he's the much older of these two pitchers.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: He's been good so far out of this year. I'm
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: not gonna say, he hasn't three point eight ERA one
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: point zero three whip. That's good. He's gone, you know,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: not quite so deep into some of these games. And yes,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I realized Tampa Bay has won every one of his
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: outings so far most impressively. Yes, they did win against
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. But other than that, he faced Saint Louis,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Minnesota the White Sox. I mean, I don't know if
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: I'm really sold on all that. Overall, Yes, numbers are good,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: twenty one to six strike a walk ratio, sixteen hits allowed,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: twenty one to the third innings. But yeah, I mean
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: this this is a start where I just think that
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: maybe he runs into some trouble here. Man Again, he's
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: only on five five to third innings, his last couple
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: of outings wasn't totally dominant against this really weak White
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Sox lineup. And now he's going up against the Reds,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: and the Reds are really familiar with him because he
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: was on Saint Louis for a while, so the Reds
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: have a lot of familiarity with him. Fifty three at bats,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: twelve to three strike a walk ratio is good for him,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: but the rest of these numbers are not good. The
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Reds have been able to hit him three seventy seven
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: batting average nine to ninety six ops. And I think
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of this was in relief appearances too. So
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: usually when a guy comes in and relief that there,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: you get their better stuff the whole time they're out there,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: which when they're a starter, they'll you know, get more
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: tired during the start and you won't get their best
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: stuff later into the start and whatever. So yeah, I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: think Cincinnati has some advantages in this game. Man, We're
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Cincinnati. Reds money line. The money doesn't
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: seem to totally agree with this, although we're gonna have
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to see how the market looks by the time the
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: game actually happens. Tampa did drop for minus one fifteen
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: to minus one to five here sixty nine per tickets,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of the cash on Tampa Bay. You know,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: for now, it looks like some of the money's on Tampa.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: But I think they're gonna wind up being kind of
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: a public side here. Uh. The public likes offense, which
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: means they do not like Cincinnati right now. So that's
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: where we're going. Red's money line is that play. The
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: total is you know is indicating through the money's indicating
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: towards the under. You know, I mean first five under
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: kind of makes sense to me here in a way,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: like both pictures are I think generally pretty good right now.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: But again, I think the side is the better way
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: to go here because I think you do actually have
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: a pretty big starting pitching edge given this specific matchup
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: and the familiarity versus unfamiliarity there. So Cincinnati is the play,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: all right, Milwaukee at Detroit. Detroit played yesterday and Milwaukee
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: did not, so that is immediately not a disadvantage to
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Detroit because they played yesterday. Milwaukee, I believe is actually
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: they're continuing a road trip. My mistake. They're coming from Miami,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: but they had yesterday off. Detroit had to play in
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Boston yesterday, and they're returning home from that. Not a
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: long road trip, it was just a trip to Boston,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: but still technically a return home spot. So sometimes when
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: teams return home, it's not a good spot for them.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: So a lot of things lining up towards Milwaukee in
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: this game. Milwaukee has the rest, Milwaukee does not have
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, although they're rested. At least Detroit did
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: have to use some relief arms. Yesterday they used three.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: So Milwaukee does have a bullpen rest edge here, but
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: their bullpen has not been good really. They're twenty six
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: than Whip, which is really bad, although their ERA is
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: better than the teams that are surrounding them, so maybe
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: they're not quite as bad as that. Detroit does have
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the better bullpend, but again less rested, but some of
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: their high leverage arms are available in this game though.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: If it's a closer, lower scoring game, that does matter.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: So Detroit, yeah, they still have a little bit of
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge. Milwaukee. Uh, they've had some injury issues
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: throughout their lineup. I think their lineup is generally better
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: than where they are right now, sitting middle of the pack.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Detroit is actually sitting two spots ahead of them twelve
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: versus fourteen and ops right now. I think it's close.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: A healthy Milwaukee lineup would be better than Detroit's, but
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're fully I don't think they're
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: fully healthy right now, and that's kind of the issue Milwaukee.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Let me see, Yeah, it looks like Vaughan Cherry all
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: we already knew was hurt. Yellick has been hurt for
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: a bit now, so there are definitely some injury issues
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: with this Milwaukee team here, but I think they have
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: a better starting pitcher here with Kyle Harrison, who the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Red Sox traded away. He's pitching well this year. Three
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: point seventy RA, one point zero nine whip, fifteen to
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: four strike at walk race is pretty good. Only twelve
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: hits in fourteen to two thirds innings. Hasn't gone that
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: deep into any of his outings yet, but he's been
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He did face some kind of weak lineups
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: in here, except for Washington, who has been hitting well,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: and that was his weakest start, so maybe he's not
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: quite that good, but he does look pretty good so far.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I think he will actually continue to do well here. Detroit, however,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: has hit him pretty well in thirteen of bats. It's
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: a very small sample, but they do have a four
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to sixty two average in one thy seventy two o
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: ps against him. That's not really what you want to
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: see because I do like the Brewers in this game.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to the Brewers here, but this gives
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: me some pause. Although I think Harrison is better now
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: than probably he was whenever these numbers were accumulated, but
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: it's something to you know, take note of at least
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: five to two strike out walk ratio against them. But yeah,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Harrison's numbers not good in a very small sample size
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: against Detroit and he's going up against Keeter Montero. I
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: don't even really know how he pronounced his name, but
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: three point three one Era point eighty six whip. He's
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: actually been good on the season so far. He was
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: mostly a relief pitcher for the Tigers, or kind of
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: like an opener type of dude, or like a follower
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: who would come in after an opener. But they're just
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: using him as a starter right now, and he's been
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: pretty good so far. Fifteen to two strike out walk ratio,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: twelve hits allowed in sixteen to third innings. Even in
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: his worst start, which was pretty much well, I would
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: say probably it was the Saint Louis one, really but
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: last time out to give it fourig and runs against
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, but he still had five strikeouts, no walks,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: got a little bit unlucky in that outing, I would say.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: So he's been good as well. He's not necessarily someone
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I really am jumping out of my seat to fade
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: right now. His numbers against the Brewers are not great.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: In eighteen of bats, small sample five to one, strike
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio two seventy eight average eight seventy one ops.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Keeping in mind, this is excluding these hitters that are
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: hurt from Milwaukee, so those numbers do not include those
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: hitters that I just mentioned that are all injured right now.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: But still Montero not great numbers there. Given the situation,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: I like Milwaukee in this game. But yeah, I mean,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: the money doesn't look like it's agreeing with me. After
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Detroit dropped from minus one twenty five to minus one
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: oh seven. We have sixty percent of the tickets on
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee sixty seven percent of the money. Though on Detroit,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: I could see arguments to be made for an under
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: in this game, even though yeah, Detroit again they did
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: use a little bit of their bullpen yesterday. Milwaukee's has
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: been a little bit questionable, but it is rested. You
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: could get DEC's starts out of both of these pitchers maybe,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: but then again, they both don't have good matchup numbers,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: so that makes me hesitate as well. But I think
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: my opinion, I think my best opinion in this game
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: is the Brewers, but yeah, I would be careful with
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: that because again, the money is not agreeing with me
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: right now, which might change by the time the game happens,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: but I'm staying off of it. Saint Louis at Miami.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: These two teams did play yesterday. Miami won five to three. Miami,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: let me see Sammy's They used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis used two. But Saint Louis has had a
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: pretty bad bullpen this year. They're twenty third and bullpen
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: whip their e ray is well above five, which is
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. Miami does have the better bullpen. They're sitting
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: at sixth than bullpen whip right now, and their eray
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: is also good in the threes, so you got to
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: give them a bullpen edge here, even though they used
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of their's yesterday. Miami is eighth
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: in offense as well, and Saint Louis has been better
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: than expected. They're somewhere middle of the pack. I think
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: where they at, yeah, sixteenth, probably Miami does have a
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge in both of those departments, though,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: I just don't think Saint Louis is a good team,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: even though they look like they have a decent record
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: right now. I just I'm not buying it, although I
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: don't think Miami's that good either. Dustin May is pitching
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. Yeah, I mean horrible trade that the
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Red Sox made to get him. He was terrible at
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox they got rid of him. He's got
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: a six point nine eighty RA one point six whip
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: this year, really bad. His last two starts were both good, though,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: one of them against the Red Sox, of course, and
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: the other against Cleveland. I'm not ready to say that
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: May is good again or that he's found something right
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: now though, though yes, he is in good form right now.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Across those last two starts, six innings in each, longing,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: one on and run in each, eight strikeouts to one
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: walk over. That's man fifteen to four over the course
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: of the season. Is not that bad. But he's been
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: way too hittable still though twenty seven hits in nineteen
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: and third innings fly ball rate is too high. Still,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: I don't like May. His numbers against Miami are good, though,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: of small sample of fourteen at bats, no extra base
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: hits allowed, two strikeouts, no walks two fourteen average four
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: to twenty nine. Oh ps might be a situation where
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: you don't necessarily want to fade May because he does
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: happen to be a good form right now. It might
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: be a decent matchup for him. He's going up against
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Chris Paddock, who is not a good pitcher. Five point
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: five ninety one point four or five whip those are
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: not good numbers. He's not really in the greatest of
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: form right now. He failed to go five innings last
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: time out against Atlanta. Allowed two horned runs, which isn't
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: that bad, and I guess four to zero strike out
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: walk ratio wasn't bad though. Overall eighteen to five on
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: the season, that's not terrible, but similar numbers to May.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: He's allowed more hits in innings pitch, which is bad.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Twenty three hits in nineteen to third innings, way too
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: many fly balls. So similar pitching from both pitchers here, really,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: except that Paddock is in the worst form, although we
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: know Atlanta has been hitting pretty well, so maybe maybe
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: you give him a little bit of a pass for that.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if I want to
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: give either of these pictures of pass really for anything though.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Oh oh, and Paddock. I gotta look at his matchup
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: numbers here. Whip's my mistake. His numbers against Saint Louis.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Only Urys has ever faced, and he's over one with
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: an RBI. I don't know if it was a sackfly
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: or what it was. No strikeouts, no walk, so Paddock
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: is unfamiliar to them. I still think over might be
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: the way to look in this game, though. I mean,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: you have at least one pretty bad bullpen with Saint Louis.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: I think both starting pitchers are generally bad. That would
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: probably be the way I would lean here. Total did
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: go up a little bit eight and a half juice
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: to the over. Excuse me, it is in no man's
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: land here, eighty four percent of tickets, eighty eight percent
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. You know, it looks
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: like a public over, but there is some money coming
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: in on it. Miami is kind of a more picture
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark. But I could definitely see both starting pitchers
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: not doing particularly great here. If either of them, you
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: know it's going to do well, probably it is likely
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: to be may given the current form, So probably I
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: do have to lean to Saint Louis as well. Sixty
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets on Miami, fifty three percent of
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: the cash on Saint Louis money coming in on Saint Louis.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe the bullpen rest helps Saint Louis in their bullpen
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit, although you could go first five innings
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: as well and just focus on the starting pitching. Do
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: you really want to just rely on Dustin May though,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I mean maybe because he's up against Paddock, who's probably
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: even worse. So those are my thoughts on that game.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with it, though. I mean,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: you could just as easily probably make arguments for an
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: under in that game, though, although if I was gonna
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: do that, I would make it first five because I
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: do not want the Saint Louis bullpen included in that.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: But you have May with good numbers and some unfamiliarity
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: against Miami, and Paddock is unfamiliar with Saint Louis. But
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: when it's a bad pitcher, I don't think it matters
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: that much. Atlanta at Washington, I was correct about this
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: game going over yesterday. Atlanta won the game nine to four.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Washington not a good team, man, They're not, even though
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: their offense has done well so far. Their bullpen is
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: bad these three relief pitchers. Yesterday Atlanta used three as well,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: but Bummer only for three pitches, so not a bummer.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: They can use him again today if they want. Probably,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has the number one ranked bullpen and whip and
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I think an era as well. Very surprising, but they
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: remain at the top, don't. I still don't think they
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: are actually the best bullpen though. I think San Diego is.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: But Atlanta's been really good in the bullpen department and
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: they're definitely better in the Washington. Washington's been a bottom
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: several bullpen all season. So far, They're not good. Washington's
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: offense has been the surprise. They're seventh right now in ops,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: which has been quite good. Atlanta, however, is third. So
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's been really good offensively as well. So Atlanta does
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: have edges here. Bullpen a huge edge hitting. I think
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Atlanta does have the edge as well. They got Ronaldo
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Lopez pitching here. He has pitched once, I think since
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: the suspension already from trying to punch a guy with
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: a baseball in his hand. That was a fight that
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: he had with so Laire in that Anaheim game. Not
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: a fan of Lopez after that Lopez wasn't great in
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: his last out, and he walked three guys in five
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: innings and kind of got lucky to only allow three
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: runs in that outing against Miami, so that wasn't that great. Overall,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: nineteen to eight strike up walk ratio, a very heavy
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: fly ball rate, which I don't like. The one good
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: thing is he's been hard to hit fifteen hits in
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: twenty two thirds innings. I think like his stuff is
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: kind of dwindling though. Man, he's had some injuries. He's
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: not really what he was when he was at his best.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: His career has been a real roller coaster. His numbers
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: do look good overall though, two point one eighty r a,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: one point one to one whip, but I don't know
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: if I fully trust him. His numbers against Washington are
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: pretty good. In thirty one career at bats nine to two,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio, two twenty six average allowed, six
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: twenty eight ops. That's not too bad. It's pretty good.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: In fact, Foster Griffin is going for Washington. He's been serviceable.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: At least three point zero five ERA and one point
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: two six whip. Kind of indicates that ERA should be
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit higher than that he hasn't been awful,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: though nineteen to seven strike up walk ratios kind of
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: too many walks, though fewer than one hit per inning
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: allowed is not bad. He did have to face the
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Dodgers in Milwaukee, and they're in the Phillies, who I know,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Phillies haven't been hitting well, but those are still talented offenses,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: and he did pretty well against all of them. Did
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse against Pittsburgh last time, but then again,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: there were some walks mixed in against those other lineups.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: There had a seven to one strike up walk ratio
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, So every one of his starts has really
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: given you something to like. You know, I'm still not
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: sold on him though, Like he's thirty years old, and like,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think your career just all of a sudden
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: takes off when you're thirty. And prior to this year,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: he hadn't pitched in the major since twenty twenty two
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: and he had zero career starts, so I don't know.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's interesting what he's done so far, and
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the Braves have never faced him before, so there is
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: that maybe he has a little bit of an advantage
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: over them for that reason. I don't know if I'd
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: put that much weight into it, though this is a
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: difficult game to figure out. You could make some arguments
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: maybe for an under here, even though I don't like Lopez,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: but we have seventy eight percent of tickets ninety one
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. Washington's bullpen is miserable, though,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: so I think if you do go under first five
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: makes more sense. Total is it eight and a half?
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: Juice to the under hasn't even really moved, But given
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that Griffin has unfamiliarity, is in decent form right now,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: and Lopez has been decent this season and has good
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: numbers against Washington, I could see that being the case.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: But Washington has been like an over machine though, dude,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: which makes sense because Washington can hit and they're pitching
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: is almost like it's they're pitching is just horrible. Pretty
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: much all the way across the board, looks like the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: money is kind of fading Atlanta in a way. They're
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: down for minus one forty five to minus one thirty two.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: They're very public, eighty seven percent of the tickets, ninety
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash in them, But I wouldn't really
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: say the money is actually indicating on Atlanta. I mean,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: it's possible that the professionals are joining the public in
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: this one. I'm not sure if they really are, though,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: looks like the money might kind of be indicating towards Washington.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: If you went Washington here, I think you would have
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: to limit it to first five innings. You don't want
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: to deal with that bullpen. It is possible that Griffman
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: is able to hold his own against Lopez, though. There
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: is that possibility, but I wouldn't want to bank on it.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Yankees at Red Sox, of course on TBS, because it
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: is the huge rivalry as it resumes is the Red
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Sox have actually had the upper hand in this rivalry
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the last couple of years. Despite losing the Wildcard round
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: last year, the Red Sox I believe, have won the
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: regular season series a couple of years in a row.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, however, played yesterday, although it was a really
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: early game yesterday, and today is gonna be an early
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: game as well, if you know what I'm saying, Because
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: he's pitching for the Red Sox, but the Yankees were
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: off yesterday, so the Yankees have a rest Red Sox
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: at least finished their game in the afternoons, so that
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: wasn't horrible. And they're staying at home, so you know,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: it's not the worst situation. But yes, the Yankees have
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: a rest edge and the real problem comes in because
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Sonny Gray got hurt. So where we get the real
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: issue at the Red Sox here is the bullpen usage
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: was ridiculous yesterday. They used everyone in their bullpen except
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Anderson yesterday. That is not good. So the Red Sox,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: even though they have the better bullpen here, that's gonna
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: probably negate their bullpen advantage here because they're gonna have
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: to use guys to two days in a row. Red
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Sox generally do have the better bullpen. That's been one
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: of their only good things this year. Only good things
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: about the team. The Red Sox have a good bullpen
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: this year, ranked fifth and whip and their era is
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Yankees are twenty first. Yankees having some bullpen
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: woes again, maybe still not as bad as last year,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: but not great. Yankees obviously have started hitting, though they're
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: clearly the better offense here, the ranked six now in OPS.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox are very bad twenty fourth. You know,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Red Sox helped themselves a little bit with the offensive
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: numbers yesterday, but their offense, I do think is a
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: little bit better than that though, Like I think the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are more of like a slightly above average
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: offense if you look at who they actually have on
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: the roster, it's just they have not come around yet.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Luis Heel is pitching for the Yankees, and you look
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: at this pitching matchup. On the surface, this is the
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: best starting pitching matchup for the Red Sox in this
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: series with early against Heel. But then you start digging
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: into these numbers and I'm like, I don't know if
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: I like it. But on the surface, Heel, Yeah, he
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: doesn't have good numbers right now. Seven ERA one point
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: four to four whip that's not good. He's been wild.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: He's only made two starts so far because he's coming
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: back from injury, and he walked multiple guys in both outings.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: He wasn't good in either outing obviously based on those numbers.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Seven to five strike out walk ratio is pretty bad
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: and nine innings pitched usually he's pretty difficult to hit though,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: and he's just wild. But the Red Sox have actually
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: not hit him well in fifty four career at bats.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Fifteen to eight strikeout walk ratio. So he does have
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of walks, but it's very heel like numbers
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: because the Red Sox only have a one to eleven
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: batting average off him. They only have one extra base hit,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: which is a double from Masa Yoshida three point fifty
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: five ops against uh Hell has really good numbers against
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox outside of the walks. Going up against
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Connolly Early, who I think generally is the better pitcher
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: two point two ninety ra. His whip is a little
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: bit too high though, one point twenty seven. He might
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: you know, he might improve though, because he's like super young.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: He's twenty four. You know, he made his major league
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: debut last year. Look pretty good. His walk number is
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: the real concern right now. He has twenty strikeouts, ten walks,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: and fifteen hits a lot in nineteen to two thirds innings.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Everything looks pretty good except for the hit or excuse
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: except for the walks. Excuse me. He's got to get
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: that down. He's walked to a piece in each of
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: his last two outings. Not too bad. He's only made
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: one home start, but it was actually his worst outing
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: against San Diego, so that's not a great sign that
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: it looks like he's been pitching better away from home
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason. I don't know if it's because of
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the pressure, or maybe it was a fluke. That was
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: his most walks that he had as well, four walks
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: in that outing at home, which might indicate that maybe
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: it's the pressure more so than the fact that Fenway
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly park. Maybe he'll do better here
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: though it's possible, But this is a pressure situation against
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, and the Yankees have faced him before and
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Early does not have good numbers against them. It's a
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: small sample size. Sixteen at bats fifteen to one or
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: excuse me, five to one strike out walk ras fifteen
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: would be insane. Five to one strike out walk ratio
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: three twelve, average allowed seven to ninety ops. That's not
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that good. So a lot of it gives me pause. Man,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: the fact that the Red Sox totally burned out their
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday. The specific pitching matchup numbers don't look very
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: good for the Red Sox here. Just on the surface. Yes,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: I think Early is better than heel, like I said,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: but a lot of things coming into play in this
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: game make me not like the Red Sox very much.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Yankees are a public side. The market Reid is basically
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: saying to take the Red Sox here. I don't want
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: to do it, though. Seventy three percent of tickets seventy
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on the Yankees, so they're
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: very public road underdog ish if you want to call
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: them that. Market Reid is indicating on the Red Sox,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: like I said, money is indicating on the under as well,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: which I don't know if I buy into that. I
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: mean I could see that. I think the under under
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings kind of makes sense in
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: a way because heel has been good against the Red
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Sox and Early definitely has the chance to improve his
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Yankees here. Uh So I could see
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: some arguments for an under in the first five here.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I would not want to deal with this Red Sox
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: absolutely worn out bullpen, or really the Yankees bullpen, even
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: though it is rested. So yeah, and if I was
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: gonna go Red Sox, you know, maybe even go first
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: five on it. I don't know. I mean, it sounds
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: crazy because the Red Sox have a better bullpen, but
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: it's just their bullpen rest is so bad and almost
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: negates everything, Like it makes me almost lean to I
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: think i'd probably slightly lean to the Yankees in this game.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: I don't want it. I don't want it to happen.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say it. I hate it. I
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: hate everything about it. The Red Sox fucking suck. It's
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: just bad, really really bad. Well, yeah, the Nats meltdowns
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: are because their bullpen is absolutely terrible. Masa. He had
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: the walk off hit the other day in that extra
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: inning game, the only RBI in that entire game. He's good, dude,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Like everybody was shitting on him because he got injured
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: and then he wasn't hitting well last year and I'm like, yeah,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: but they're not even putting him in the lineup anymore.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: And the year before that he had pretty good numbers.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, he's gonna come around, and he is.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at the Mets. Are the Mets finally gonna break
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: this losing streak. They might. I mean, they have a
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: huge starting pitching edge in this game, and I think
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is definitely overrated. They've already dropped to a five
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: hundred record now because they've lost four straight games, which
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: might mean maybe they're in line for a bounce back
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: because they did just get swept by Cincinnati. I believe
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: neither team played yesterday, so Minnesota might be a little
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: bit of an edge to Minnesota, the fact that they
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: get to leave home. Forget about those losses, focus on
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the Mets here play baseball. It's not a horrible spot
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: for Minnesota, and in fact, situationally, it actually is a
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: negative spot for the Mets because they were turning on
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: from a three series road trip, no sorry, two series,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: but they went to the Pacific Coast, they were in LA,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: and then they played the Cubs. But again, that's also
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why the Mets haven't won any
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: of these games, even though I know they're hitting has
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: been awful, but Sodo has been hurt this whole time.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: And I mean, it's not easy to go on the
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: road to play the Dodgers and the Cubs. Dude, it's
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: not like they're playing bad teams here. Like those are
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: really good teams that I believe are probably both going
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: to win their division. So you might be able to
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: dial it back a little bit on how bad the
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Mets really are, because I don't think they're this bad.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: But they're returning home still, so that is usually not
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: a good spot you return home from the road. They
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: did have yesterday off, like I said, but returning home
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: from the road a lot of times that's bad. You
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: get distracted. You have to get back to home life.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: But they might be focused because they've just lost so
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: many games in a row. It's getting to a point
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: where it's like you can't overlook anybody, you know what
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I mean. As far as the bullpen's, I believe the
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Mets have the better bullpen and that's like the one
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: real saving grace they have here. Well, really it's the pitching,
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: because they have the better starting pitcher here as well.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: The Mets bullpen, Where the hell are they at? Why
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: don't I see them here? Oh? I'm looking at hitting
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: and that's why. Yeah, the Mets hitting. We know, they've
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: had the worst offensive numbers in baseball so far. They're
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: batting average isn't the lowest, but it's close, and their
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: OPS is the lowest. So yeah, the Mets have really
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: really been bad offensively. They have too much talent for
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: that to remain the case. I do expect them to
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: improve on that, but right now, yeah, they're hitting is
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: really bad, and it is worse than Minnesota's right now.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is tenth right now, although I don't think Minnesota's
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: lineup is gonna remain there, like I don't think they're
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: gonna keep hitting that well. Mets have a pretty good bullpend,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Like I said, they're fourteenth, kind of middle of the pack,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: but nothing about these bullpen numbers is really bad, so
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: they're all right. Minnesota's bullpen is pretty bad at twenty eighth,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: so the Mets do have a better bullpen here. Simeon
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Wood's Richardson is pitching for Minnesota. His numbers have started
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: getting pretty bad. Six point one ERA, one point six whip.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's that bad. He's coming off two
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: really bad outings, though, and he's not in good form
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: right now. You could say that five strikeouts, four walks
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: and eleven earned runs a lot in nine innings over
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: the last two outings at Toronto and against the Red Sox,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: and those have not been lineups that have been really
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: crushing it. So he's not doing that well right now.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: I believe we got to win with the Red Sox
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: in that game. We faded him in that game. I
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: don't remember who the Red Sox had on the Hill.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we faded Woods Richardson in that one. Woods
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Richardson against the Mets here, let's see, I did look
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: at this earlier. His numbers are not very good against
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: the Mets. In thirty at bats, five to four strike
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: up walk ratio, and this is without factoring in Soto.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Mets still have three home runs
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: against him, three sixty seven batting average twelve forty one ohps.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: So Woods Richardson, Yeah, he doesn't have good numbers here.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: He's definitely the lesser of these two pitchers going up
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: against Nolan McLain, who is having a good season for
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: the Mets. And it's just really unfortunate that a guy
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: like this, you know, he's young, he's at the beginning
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: of his career, he's pitching really well, and his offense
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: is just absolutely pathetic behind him, and he can't get
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: wins because of it. It's yeah, it's kind of a shame.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: It's a damn shame. Two point two eighty RA, a
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: point seven to six whip for him. That's some good stuff.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Twenty eight to eight strikeout walk ratio and only ten
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: hits allout in twenty three and two thirds innings. We're
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: looking at like some borderline pretty dominant numbers here. Man
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: including a really good outing last time out against the
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Dodgers on the road, looks like real deal type of stuff,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: and they still lost that game because they can't fucking hit.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: He's allowed two or fewer runs in every outing. He's good,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: no doubt about it. Minnesota has one hitter who seen
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: him before, Josh Bell, formerly of the Nationals, is one
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: for three, often with a single and two strikeouts, no walks.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: So McLain has a pretty big unfamiliarity edge here. I
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: think there's a huge pitching edge for the Mets here,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: which is why they're favored like this. I know they're
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: returning on from a road trip whatever. I think I
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: would only be able to leave to the Mets in
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: this one though I can't quite get there with it.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: But I like the Mets. I think they have a
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: strong pitching advantage, like really throughout this entire game. I
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna finally do it and get this win.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I have my concerns. The Mets have gone
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: up from minus one twenty five. That would have been
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: a really nice price, So minus one seventy four. Maybe
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: there's a pitching change here and that's why it moved
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: like that, But seventy two percent of tickets, eighty three
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Mets. Hilariously, it looks
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: like the public is slightly signing with the Mets, but
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: the actual money I believe is on the Mets. I'm
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: tempted to do it this one. This is one of
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: my stronger opinions of the day, but I don't like
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: jumping on teams returning off from the road. You know,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I have my few concerns with it, but I think
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: clearly you have a huge starting pitching edge here and Minnesota.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think their offense is so good that they're
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: gonna like you know, I don't think Minnesota's gonna have
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: a huge lead in this game at any point, let's
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: just put it that way. I think the Mets are
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be in this thing the whole time, but you
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: need the to win, and you needed to win somewhat easily.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: If you're gonna lay a price like this, that's what
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: I still would do, though I would lay the minus
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: one run line probably or make your own minus one
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: run line on that. That would be my opinion on that.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do it completely, but you know,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I kind of want that feeling of, yes, I was
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: on the Mets when they broke this horrific losing streak.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: You know it. It will feel good if you are
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: on it. But yeah, I mean, the pitching matchup looks
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: looks great for the Mets, though, to me, in that
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: game Baltimore at Kansas City, this game, if you saw
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: what happened in yesterday's game, I believe I had an
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: opinion on the under in that game, and I hope
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: that I said limited to the first five innings, because
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: this was a one nothing game going into the ninth
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: inning and the final score was seven to five. If
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: you had the under full game in this game, I mean,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: first of all, maybe there's something wrong with you for
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: including Kansas City's bullpen in your equation, but even so,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: you were clearly on the right side of that and
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: you got absolutely screwed. It was a one nothing game
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: in the ninth inning, then one to one. It went
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: into extra innings, no runs got scored in the tenth,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: and then there was one run in each half of
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: the eleventh inning, so then it was two to two,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: and then eight runs came across in the twelfth inning
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: alone and set this thing over. The total was nine
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: in the game. Absolutely ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous, horrible beat. But
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: again I think first five under because Kansas City's bullpen
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: was so bad or is so bad that that makes
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: more sense. But Kansas City their bullpen was bad in
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: that game too, because that's why they lost. They lost
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: seven to five. This Kansas City bullpen, they can't get
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: it right, man. They were fairly good last year. This
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: year has not been the case. They use a bunch
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: of relievers yesterday too, five of them. Probably similar on
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: the other side, though I looked at this earlier, but
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: I already forget Baltimore or has had the better bullpen
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: this year. They use a lot of relief pitchers as well.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: They used six, so it looks like you want to
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: fade the bullpens in whatever you do with this game.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Although Baltimore has the third best bullpen whip this year,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: but I don't. I'm not ready ready to say that
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: they're actually that good in the bullpen, but they have
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: been pretty good so far. They're definitely better than the Royals,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: who have the absolute worst bullpen, both in WHIP and
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: in ERA at this point as well, really really bad stuff.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Royals also have not been hitting well twenty eighth really bad.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, their offense wasn't good last year either, but
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: this is some pretty bad stuff from the Royals here.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Baltimore has the better offense. Where are we at here? Baltimore?
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: They haven't been great though they're twenty first offensively, but
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: they do have the better offense. I think I forgot
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: to handicap this game, actually, so I'm gonna do it
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: on the fly here because I don't remember looking at
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: these starting pitchers. Shane boz Is pitching for the Orioles.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Four point nine winn ERA, one point five to five
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: WHIP is pretty bad. Boz is walking too many guys, man,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: He's putting too many guys on base, too many hits too.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Twenty two innings, twenty six hits, nineteen strikeouts is fine,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: but eight walks is really high. He's walked two or
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: more in each of his last three outings. Orioles have
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: lost all three of those games. He hasn't gotten completely
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: blown up in any of them, though he's allowed four
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: or fewer in every single outing, so he's not like
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: getting absolutely destroyed in any of these games. He's a
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: pretty mediocre pitcher. I mean he does. He has shown
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: some glimpses of being pretty good sometimes, but like when
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: he was on Tampa UH, going up against the Royals
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: might be a bit of an easier task for him.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good against them in thirty at bats
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: five to one, strike out walk ratio, two thirty three average,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: six ninety one ops allowed, so those are not bad numbers.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: He is going up against Chris Bubitch, who has good
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: numbers this year three point nine to seventy RA one
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: point oh six. Whip Boo Bitch hasn't looked quite as
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: good in his last few outings as well. He had
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: one really good outing against the White Sox, but that
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: is a really pathetic offense. And beyond that, he has
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: three walks in the other two outings this month against
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee and at Detroit. That's not great. His worst start
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: of the season was that most recent one at Detroit.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Didn't make it five innings, allowed, five in runs. Some
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: things to not love here, twenty six to ten strike
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio again, that is definitely too many walks
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: and twenty two and two thirds innings but only fourteen
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: hits allowed. That's good, and the strike got raided is good.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: But he started kind of following off in the later
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: half of the year. Last year after he got named
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: to the All Star team or whatever, his numbers against
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Baltimore were actually not good. In eighteen of bats three
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: eighty nine, batting average allowed, one thy thirty two oh ps. Yeah,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: given all that, I'm gonna lean Baltimore here. The money's
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: completely disagreeing with me on that, But I think Baltimore,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: you could make the argument they have the starting pitching
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: edge here just based on the matchup numbers I just
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: showed you also in fairly bad form it looks like.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: And then Baltimore. You know, I think you have to
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: give them the bullpen edgy and the offensive edge. But
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of tickets on Baltimore, sixty seven percent
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Kansas City, and they're up to
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty seven. I don't know, man, I think
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: the odds makers might be giving Boo Bitch a little
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: bit too much credit there. So Booby, well, I don't know.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: We'll see if he gets the Booby Prize in that one.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: I would slightly lean towards Baltimore there though, but it
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: looks like a very dumb like public side. It looks
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: kind of square. Really, Oh my god, I'm getting the
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: better team as an underdog because the oddsmakers are telling
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: you that Baltimore is not even the better team in
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: that matchup. Yeah, I'm not quite so sure about that.
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at the Cubs, Philadelphia continued they're losing ways. The
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Cubs continued to be hot with six wins in a row.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Now with a five to one win yesterday, I thought
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia was in a nice bounce back spot yesterday. Didn't
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: necessarily love the starting pitching match. Nola is just a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: real question mark. I didn't think Ray would do as
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: well as he did yesterday. I think it looks like
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: he did pretty well. You know, I'm not really a
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: fan of him, but give him credit. Cubs only his
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: two relief pitchers. Yesterday Philadelphia, he was three. Looking at
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: how the bullpens have done so far this year, the
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Cubs are eighth and the Phillies are seventh in Whip.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: Cubs have the better bullpen era, though it's very close
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: between the two bullpens. I think I will actually give
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: the Cubs a little bit of a bullpen edge. Though
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: Cubs have started hitting, they're up to fifth, They've skyrocketed
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: up the offensive standings. They're fifth in ops now. Same
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: cannot be said for Philadelphia as they sit twenty fifth,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: even though they have a lot of talent in that lineup.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna stay there, But the Cubs
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: have had the better offense. Just on the surface here,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup looks like it favors the Cubs
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: to me, but you gotta like dive into the current
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: form the matchups. Jesus Lozardo is pitching for the Phillies.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: His numbers look pretty horrendous this year, seven point nine
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: to four ERA, one point four to six WHIP. What
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: is going on with him? Well, he's got a really
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: like elite thirty to five strike up walk ratio, so
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: that's really good. That means his command is good. So
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: how could he possibly have numbers that are this bad. Well,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: it's because he's allowed twenty eight hits and twenty two
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings. He's been way too hit aable.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: That's been the problem. Yeah, he just gets smacked around.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: He's allowed five or more in runs and three of
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: his four outings. His only good one was against Colorado,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: who suck offensively, although that was at Course Field. But
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: he's been bad other than that. And he just faced
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: the Cubs and they absolutely lit him up in Philly.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: They hit him for They got him for twelve hits,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: eight roned runs, and five and a third innings, even
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: though he had four strikeouts one walk. That's some bad stuff, dude. Now,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: the Cubs just saw him, so they're familiar with him.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: They just knocked him around. But he might do better
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: this time, because that's kind of what happens sometimes with
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: these veteran pictures, Like the Cubs are already familiar with him,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: so I don't think that matters that much. And he
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: did so bad that he might figure out, oh, this
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: is what was going wrong. I'm gonna fix some things,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. But I don't want to
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: rely on Lozardo to actually completely turn this thing around either,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: because he's been so bad recently. I don't think we
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: could really rely on him at all. Here he's going
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: up against the Cubs. I think he'll do better than
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: he did in that last game, but that's still probably
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: not good enough. Cubs have one hundred and eleven at
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: bats against him, thirty one to fifteen strike out walk ratio.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: That's too many walks. Two fifty two average isn't that
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: bad for him, but seven to fifty six ops getting
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: into the slightly higher range there he's going up against.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Show to Imnago, I think he's just way more trustworthy. Obviously,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: he's having the better season for the Cubs here two
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: point four to five vra point seven to seven whip.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: He's in excellent form right now. He's allowed touring runs
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: this entire month so far, twenty four to three, strike
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio this month, thirty one to five overall,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: so that's even better than Lozardo's. Plus I Monaga's only
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: allowed twelve hits in twenty two wins. Now, he did
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: just face the Phillies, So, like I said, when hitters
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: just faced a guy, sometimes they will hit him better
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: in the next game. So there could be a little
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: bit of regression here from im Naga. But is it
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be enough like regression on his side and positive
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: regression on Lozardo's side, that it's gonna completely cancel this out.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. Really, these guys, I think pitched
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: in the same game here and Imnaga went six innings,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: allowed one and run eleven strikeouts, one walk, three hits,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: whereas Lozardo was an absolute disaster in the game. So
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: even if they both regress, you know, in those directions
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: in this game, like Lozardo could do better than that
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: and still not do well enough here, you know what
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, And Emanaga could do worse than this, it's
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: still I'll pitch Lozardo. So there might not be enough
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: regression in store here. Yeah, I mean, I can't. I
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: can't give you you know, I can't say that I
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: would want Philly here, And there's no way even though
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: the Cubs have dropped all the way from minus one
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: to fifty to minus one six here, they're public. The
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: public doesn't want anything to do with Philly right now.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: Seventy seven percent of tickets, only sixty nine percent of
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Cubs. So the money is very
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: strongly indicating on Philadelphia here, coming in a bit on
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: the under two for what that's worth. But I don't know, man,
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: I think I would lean to the Cubs like you
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: rarely you're gonna get Emanaga at a price like this,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Although it looks almost too inviting. It looks like they're
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: trying to trap you into taking the Cubs. I don't
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: want to fall for the trap. This is not gonna
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: be a play for me. But it looks like just
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: such a cheap price to lay with Emanaga and this
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, like he's in such better form right now.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: And on top of that, oh, I didn't even look
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: at the matchup numbers, did I? I think he has
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers as well. Yeah, well, against Philly
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: he's got thirty seven at bats worth, fifteen to two,
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio two forty three, average allowed. The
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: ops is a little bit high at eight twenty three. Uh,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: but I still I think his matchup number are actually
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than Lozardos. So do with that
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: information what you want. I like the strike out walk ratio.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: There We're an hour in and I'm not even halfway through,
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: and I'm a little bit I'm more than halfway three.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: I what am I saying? I don't have that many
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: games left? All right, Pittsburgh at Texas? This game might
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: be hard to handicap because last I looked neither team
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: and announce as starter. So I don't know how we
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: really handicap this. ESPN does have listed starters. I guess
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: we can try to handicap this given that these guys
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: might be the starters, but it's not official, so I
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going on here. Neither team played yesterday.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is starting a road trip off of beating Tampa Bay.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: So I like teams when they're starting a road trip.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: Usually they will show up focus try to get the
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: road trip off on the right foot. Texas is returning home.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't like that. They're actually in the
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: worst return home spot. So it's unfortunate we don't know
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: who the starters are here because I'd be looking to
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: fade Texas given the situation here. They just went out
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: to La The A is in Sacramento and then Seattle.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: So Texas is returning home from a Pacific Coast trip.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: It's the longest road trip any team is returning from today.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: They had yesterday off. Both teams did. But you know,
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: I always am going to pretty much lean to that
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: team that's starting a road trip over the team returning
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. You know, you return home
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: from the road trip, it takes away from your focus.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: You have to get back to home life and whatever.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: So I don't like that. Texas has not been a
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: bad team, though you know, their bullpen is all right.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: They're at eleventh or Era is actually really good in
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: the bullpen, so I think they're actually probably a top
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: ten bullpen, even though in Whip they're just outside of it.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Right now, they're a good bullpen. Pittsburgh is not quite
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: as good at nineteenth, but they're not horrible. And both
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: bullpen's arrested. So whatever you do with this game, you know,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: the bullpens seem like they could be included. Pittsburgh has
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: been hitting surprisingly well fourth in ops this year, so
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: maybe the hype was real and these Pittsburgh hitters they
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: got now I don't know for sure. I expect some
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: regressions still out of them. Though Texas does not really
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: have a good offense, even though they were at eleventh
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: right now, I don't really trust their offense. I don't
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: think it's that good. And then the starting pitching, we
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: don't know who's starting, but if it's what ESPN is
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: telling us that it might be, Lodzinski would be pitching
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: for the Pirates. His era looks too good at one
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: point seven to seven. It should not be that good,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: given that he has a one point three to three whip.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: He's walked multiple guys in all of his outings this month.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: The Pittsburgh has won every game he's pitched in this season,
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: and he started going deeper into games, and he's allowed
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: no runs over his last two outings against Washington and
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: the Cobbs. Teams that have started, you know, Cubs have
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: started hitting. Washington's been hitting all year, so that's not unimpressive.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: Twenty to eight strike a walk ratio. It is too
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: many walks, nineteen hits alloted in twenty to third innings.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: He's been fine, you know, not horrible. Going up against
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Texas here, they're not like an elite lineup and this
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a pitcher friendly ballpark. He's got twelve
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: at bats against them, six to one. Strike at walker
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: ratio one sixty seven average allowed, three ninety seven oh ps.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: So Texas has not been able to hit him, although
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: some of those were definitely relief appearances. But he might
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: be more Trustworther than Kumar Rocker if he's actually pitching,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: or remember, because I don't know who's pitching in this
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: game Rocker four point three era, He's no John Rocker Man. Also,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: he's Indians, so you know that that detracts a bit
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: from it as well, even though he's actually from Georgia.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: One point is Rocker? Dude? Rocker? Is that an Indian name?
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: What the fuck? One point five whip? That's not good.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: He's putting too many guys on base man. You could
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: call him Kumar Walker, that would be better, more appropriate name.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: Fourteen to seven strike out walk ratio so far, fifteen
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: hits in fourteen to two thirds in He's that's not
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: gonna cut it. Texas has in fact lost all three
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: of his outings so far. So if it is this
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, I don't know. I'd be tempted to
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: actually give out a play on Pittsburgh. We got to
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: see what the starting pitching matchup is. You know what
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: I'll do. I'm not gonna give it out as a
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: play here on the show. But once we see what
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup is, if the line is still
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of where I want it, and I
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: do actually wind up liking Pittsburgh enough, I'll put it
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: out on Instagram and I'll add it as a play.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: How about that Rocker. You know, he hasn't had it
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: that easy though, other than his first outing should have
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: been pretty easy against Cincinnati. He did it alright in
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: that one. I think we actually might have had an
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: under in that game. Or no, I think we might
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: have faded Rocker in that game. But we still got
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: the win with that, luckily probably. But then he did
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: face the Dodgers on the road, and then he had
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: to go to the A's stadium, which we know is
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: very bad to pitch in, So maybe you got to
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: give him a little bit of a break for that.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: I think he does actually have some good stuff, but
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: it just hasn't really panned out so far against Pittsburgh.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not that good in a small twenty
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: two at bat sample size five four strikeout walk ratio
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: that's not good, three sixty four average not good, nine
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: to ninety ops not good. So if those are the
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: actual starting pitchers here and we're getting Pittsburgh as some
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: sort of small underdog here, I might say to add it,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: maybe you go first five innings with it, because Texas
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: probably has the better bullpen here. But I think it's
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: not you know, it's not that far off though, and
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: given the situation, maybe you could go Pittsburgh full game,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: even though a lot of times those home distractions come
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: into play more so earlier in the game. But yeah,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that game. Charles, what's up?
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. All right, We're in an hour
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: here and we're not done with baseball. No, we still
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: have a bunch of baseball. San Diego and Colorado. Colorado
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: played yesterday and they lost to the Dodgers and wound
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: up splitting that series against the Dodgers. They got blown
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: out yesterday. They're staying at home, so maybe that helps
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: them a little bit. But San Diego did rest yesterday,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: so San Diego is rested, and they do have the
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here as well. San Diego played at Anaheim,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: so they're coming in from Anaheim with a day off.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Colorado played yesterday, like I said, so San Diego's got
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a rest edge. For Colorado only
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: us one pitcher out of their bullpen. They used Tanner Gordon,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: long relief type of guy right now, so they pretty
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: much did save their bullpen. San Diego still has the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: better bullpen though, I mean, they're elite in the bullpen.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: They're listed as fourth right now in bullpen whip, but
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: they also have the second best bullpen. He ra, I
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: think they're the best bullpen. We know that, yeah, I
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: mean everybody knows Mason Miller, but they have some other
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: really good pictures in that bullpen. And of course they're
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: playing against Colorado. Colorado's bullpen actually hasn't been that bad though.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: They're thirteenth in whip, but I think they're gonna regress
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: a bit from that. So yeah, san Diego pretty clearly
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: better bullpen and a little bit more rested. Offensively. San
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: Diego has not been very good the second I think
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit better than that, but maybe not
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: by that much. Colorado at fifteenth. I don't think Colorado
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: is that good offensively, but they're better at home than
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: on the road, so I think at least at home,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: they're more of a mid tier offense. But we don't
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: know who's pitching for Colorado here either, so that makes
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: this pretty difficult to handicap. They still have not decided
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: on a pitcher here. We have San Diego listened as
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: minus one forty favorite here total of eleven in course
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: field is about where you would expect it to be
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: Randy Vasquez's pitching for San Diego two point four to
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: nine ERA, one point two to nine whip this season. Again,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: he's got a good RRA and his whip is a
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: bit too high and indicates that his ERA should be
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: higher than it is. His walk issues might be making
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: a return here, because he did just walk four guys
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: against Seattle in his last outing that wasn't particularly good.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: That was the game where I think I think he
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: got bailed out in that game. I think Seattle blew
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: that game. I think it was that was like that
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: game with the five run ninth inning or whatever that
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: San Diego had. I think that was that game. So
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Vazkez got bailed out there. He does still have a
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: twenty five to eight strike out walk ratio, which is
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: not that bad and fewer than one hit allowed per inning.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: Good strikeout rate in twenty one to two thirds innings.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: But it looks like his old walk issues might be
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: reappearing here, which wouldn't be good because that's been his
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: problem throughout his career. Like, he actually has decent stuff,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: but the walks have really held him back. He'll be
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: going up against Colorado. Which is not the strongest line
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: up here, but it is in course field. He does
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: have good numbers against them. Ninety three at bats, twenty
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: three to three strike out walk ratio, two fifty eight
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: average allowed, six sixty eight ops. Those are pretty good numbers.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: But you might say, yeah, but some of those were
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: probably in the very picture friendly stadium that San Diego has, Right, Yeah,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: that's true. But I went and I looked, and I said,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: what did he do last year in course Field? Well,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: he actually made two starts there and one of them
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: was a six inning, two earned run perform. He didn't
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: walk anybody, so that was a pretty good outing from him.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: And then the other outing earlier in the season six
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: innings allowed tourn runs in that one five to one
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio. So he actually put together two
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: good outings in his two starts in course Field last year.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: So he's not really gonna be intimidated by pitching in
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: this stadium or whatever. So from that aspect, I think
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: he should be fine. Do I want to actually play
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: on San Diego here? No, I mean they do have
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: a rest edge though, and they do have the way
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. Probably they're gonna have the starting pitching edge there.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: Even though I don't love Vazquez, I think he probably
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: is better than whoever Colorado is gonna side to go
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: with here, But this one is not gonna be one
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be on my card. San Diego is gonna
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: wind up being a public side anyway, in a small
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: favor on the road. I don't want to deal with that.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: But Colorado was coming off a big series, although they
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: did get blown out yesterday, so I could see that
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: going either way. All right, I'm gonna take a quick break.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna finish these last four games, starting with this
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: ESP unlimited game. I have one more baseball playing here,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: which is a total, and then nuh, we'll do NHL
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: and NBA. All right, let's finish off baseball here. Really
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: long show today, possibly too much baseball. I get too
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: detailed with it. Toronto and Anaheim. These teams did play yesterday.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Toronto won five to two yesterday. I don't like either
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: of these bullpens, so we could go with that to
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: kind of start this out. Anaheim used two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: not many, but still they're not a good bullpen, and
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: neither is Toronto really Right now, Toronto's probably the better bullpen,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: but they did use four relief pitchers yesterday. They're bullpens
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: that I would not mind fading. Toronto's eighteenth and bullpen
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: whip right now ERA is almost five. That's not good.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: Anaheims is in the mid fours as well, and they're
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: twenty second in bullpen whips, so they're almost putting one
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: and a half guys on basin inning. That's all bad.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's been hit, yeah, Anaime has been hitting well. Excuse me, yes,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: they're at eighth right now in offense in ops and Toronto,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: I mean they've been dealing with some injuries in their lineup,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: as I keep mentioning, but there's sixteenth right now. They're
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: definitely a team that has the ability to put up
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: some runs. And then i looked at this starting pitching
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: matchup and I'm like, oh my god, this is like
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: this game has overwritten all over it. But then I
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: looked at the current form of these pitchers and the
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers, and I'm like, I don't know if I
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: could do it, man, because I like the over. I
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: think the over is the best way to look at
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: this game. Patrick Korb, but his pitching for the Blue Jays.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: You know, I make fun of this guy all the
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: time on the show. Four point six six ERA and
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: one point two to four whip is not really that
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: bad this year. He's only made two starts so far, though,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: but he had a good start in his last outing
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee in got no run support behind him, he
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: held in the one run. That's not bad. You know,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna trust him though. I still think he
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: might not do well here. But his numbers are pretty
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: good against Anaheim though. In one hundred and four career
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: at bats, thirty three to eleven strike out walk ratio. Now,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: they did see a lot of them last year because
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: he was on Texas, so he was in their division
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: last year, so they're definitely familiar with them. But they
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: didn't hit him well. Thirty three to eleven strike out
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: walk raceio two forty average, allowed six thirty oh ps.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good. So I don't know if we necessarily
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: want to fade him here. Jack Kohanowitz's picure for the Angels.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: You know, I was basically questioning why he was even
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: still in the league at this point. Seems like Anaheim
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: thinks that he's still got something here, and he might
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: develop into something because he's only twenty five, and his numbers,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I gotta admit, they're not horrible this year three point
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: four to seventy, RRA one point two to four whip
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: dive into it a little bit, though the walks are
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: just awful. He's been pretty hard to hit those. You
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: got to give him that. Twenty three and a third innings,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: fourteen hits allowed. That is really good. Eighteen strikeouts. He's
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: not really a strikeout guy. I'm willing to live with that.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: But the fifteen walks is egregiously bad. Four plus walks
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: and three of his four starts so far, that is
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: the problem. You know. Could he get that under control? Yeah?
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: You know, wildness is correctable, you know, so maybe he will.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it just never gets corrected. Though, I don't know.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's gonna happen with him. It seems
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: like Anaheim. I mean, maybe their pitching is gonna start
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: getting better, Like Soriano looks elite this year so far.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe Kohanoitz will become a more like, at
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: least a serviceable pitcher against Toronto. He does not have
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: good numbers though in twenty at bats one to two,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: strike out walker ratio four fifty average allowed nine to
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: fifty oh ps. Those are pretty bad numbers. So yeah,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: you know it's this game is an over for me.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: That would be the way I would play at the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: the total is at nine, it's just a bit heavily.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: I'd prefer over nine to nine and a half. If
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: you can find nine at minus one twenty over, that's
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: what I would do, so you don't have to lay
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: the hook. This is probably one of my stronger opinions.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: By the way, seventy one percent of tickets, seventy six
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over here. Money is
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: also coming in towards Anaheim, which I'm not so sure
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: about that. Corbin as the better matchup numbers, but he
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: is very familiar to Anaheim. Anaheim at minus one ten,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: you're fifty three percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: the cash on Anaheim. Yeah, so the money is indicating
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: on Anaheim. You know, I don't have a good read
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: on the side here really though, over would be the
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: way I would do it. You know, again, find the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: nine over my at minus one twenty if you can.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: If you have to go to nine and a half,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a little bit more risky because you're
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: off of that key number there. Key number is nine
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: because it breaks the four to four tie. Those are
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on it's tempting to be honest, it's tempting
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: to add that to my card. I like that one,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: and I like the Mets. Probably like this one a
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: bit better though. Actually I'm tempted, man, because like, like,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: why am I not doing it? Really, it's just I
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: don't know Corbyn's matchup numbers is. It's a big sample
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: size and he has been good against Anaheim, So all right,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: I'll stay off of it. But yeah, I like over
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: in that game A's at Seattle. Uh, the A's won
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: yesterday six to four. Seattle had a lead early in
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: the game and blew it. Kind of surprise it because
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: Seattle does have the better bullpen generally, but their bullpen
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: seems like it's a little bit overworked right now. They
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: used four relief pitchers yesterday. That's not good. But generally
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: the A's bullpen is not, yeah, not better than Seattle's.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. I think you still
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: got to give Seattle a bullpen edge. Here a couple
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: of their better relievers didn't pitch yesterday. I think Bizardo
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: and what's the other dude's name, Munos, send your smoke.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Those guys didn't pitch yesterday. Those are two of their
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: better relievers, so they're available today. For sure, they are
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen in general, though Seattle's bullpen is kind
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: of falling in the rankings. But I'm looking at offense here.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: Final look at offense. First, The A's are nineteenth in offense,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle twenty third. This is based on ops. I think
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: the A's probably do have the better offense. I think
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: both offenses are actually better than what we've seen so
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: far from them. Seattle, like I said, they dropped to
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: sixteenth and bullpen whip, but their eerra is still better
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: than all these teams around them. I think they're a
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: pretty decent bullpen. Like I think they're probably a top
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: ten bullpen. A's the same cannot be said for them.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: They're like a bottom ten bullpen in my opinion. They're
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: twenty third right now. So yeah, I think you can
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: definitely agree that Seattle has the better bullpen. Here. Jacob
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: Lopez is pitching for the A's. You know, he showed
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: some signs. Last year was getting a lot of strikeouts
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: with that movement on that curve ball. This year now,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: things are not going well. Six point three eighty R
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: one point nine to six whip is really bad. He
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: has more walks than strikeouts seventeen walks to sixteen strikeouts
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: in eighteen to third innings plus nineteen hits on top
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: of then in thirteen ear in runs allowed. This is
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: some bad stuff, dude, even though he hasn't had any
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: like really egregiously bad outing, Like every outing has been
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: shaky at best, with three or more walks in every outing.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: This is not good. He is at least going to
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: a more pitcher from the ballpark here. But Seattle has
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: hit him well, but it's only in nine at bats
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: they've hit two of them runs off him, both from
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: the big Dumper, one strikeout, three walks against them, four
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: forty four batting average eighteen oh six ops. Lopez, you know,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: bad matchup numbers. Even though it's a small sample size.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: He's in bad form. Doesn't look like things are gonna
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: go well for him in this game. He's going up
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: against Luis Castillo, who I think is pretty clearly the
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: better pitcher right now, his numbers don't look good five
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: point four ERA, one point eight whip. We lost going
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: against him in his last outing, but he was better
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: than it looks in the last outing. I mean, the
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: fielding screwed him. He gave up three unearned runs in
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: his last outing. He just couldn't get out of there.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna give him a little bit of a
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: pass for that. Even though it was against San Diego.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really hit that well. It was in a
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: picture friendly park in San Diego. But so is this
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: at home, and Luis Castillo, basically all of Seattle's pitchers
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: tend to be better at home, including him. He's obviously
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: better than what we've seen out of him so far.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: Seventeen to seven strike out walk ratio is not great,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: twenty six hits allowed is really a big problem in
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: eighteen to third innings, but pretty much all of that
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: came in like one outing against Houston though, or at
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: least most of it did. But that San Diego start
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: was better enough than his previous two starts. And I
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: think he's coming back into form here. It looks like
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: to me, and again we know who he is, like
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: he's been around for a long time. I don't think
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: he's just completely falling off a cliff at thirty three.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: He's definitely not old enough for that, so I think
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: he is gonna start pitching better. His numbers against the
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: A's are okay. In sixty nine at bats, seventeen to two,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio two sixty one average allowed, eight
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: h three ops. Is a little bit concerning. Jeff McNeil
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: really is the guy that's just done pretty much all
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: the damage though, six for thirteen of two of them
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: runs if he pitches around him and a couple of doubles.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: If you can pitch around him, you know, I mean,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: he's only gonna Castillo is only gonna have to face him,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: like probably three times, so if he's even out there
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: long enough for that. But yeah, I like Seattle in
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: this game. The money is disagreeing with me on that
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: one too strongly. Seattle's at minus one fifty eight, but
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: I think they clearly have the better starter. I think
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen. Seventy four percent of the
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: tickets are on Seattle, seventy four percent of the cash
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: on Oakland or excuse the homeless, the homeless A's dude,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: just move to Vegas already or just start calling yourselves
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: the Vegas A's or something. Come on, man, whatever, it's
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: stupid the athletics. But anyway, Yeah, the money looks like
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: it's coming in in the A's, but given that Seattle
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: lost last night, they're kind of in a bounce back spot.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: They're winning a large chunk of that game. Again, I
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: think they have the better pitching throughout this game. I
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: don't see it. I think Seattle wins. That would be
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: my opinion there. I don't want to make it a
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: play though, especially not with a market read like that
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: White Sox at Arizona Arizona. Neither of these teams played yesterday.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Arizona's staying at home. They did lose a four game
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: win streak, but they got blown out, so I could
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: see it going both ways. Like sometimes when a team
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: loses a win streak, they'll be hung over to the
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: next game. On the other hand, you get blown out
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: at home, sometimes you'll bounce back from that, So maybe
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: Arizona will bounce back. The White Sox are traveling in
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: from the A's, so they're already out west. Basically now
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: they're coming in after beating the A's in that series.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: Noah Schultz. By the way, I was a game too
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: early on Noah Schultz because he actually pitched pretty well
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: in his second career outing there in that horrible a stadium.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: Schultz actually look pretty good in that game. I'm going
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: to continue to kind of think he's kind of the
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: real deal. But he's not pitching in this game though
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: the Vegas stadium don't. What does it look like? I
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: have no idea what it looks like. I'm assuming it's
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: not ready yet in this game. So we have rested bullpens,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: but I still don't like either bullpen. Although the Diamondbacks
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: have been the second best bullpen and WHIP, even though
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: their ERA is above four and they have no lefties
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: in it and their bullpen's stunk last year, I'm not
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: ready to buy it. I'm still not buying it, even
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: though I will buy that they're better than the White
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: Sox bullpen, who's been second worst in WHIP and have
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: a really bad RA as well, So I'll buy that.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: At least, I'll give you Arizona has the better bullpen
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: than the White Sox. Okay, I'm not that crazy, but
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: I think they might both be fadable bullpens, but they
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: are both rested here. Hitting wise, Arizona is the better offense,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: even though they haven't done great this year. Right now,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: the White Sox have been pretty pathetic though twenty six.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: You know, at least they're better than some of these
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: other teams right now, including the Mets, even though I
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: don't think the White Sox offense is really good at all.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: Sean Burke is pitching for the White Sox. He's been
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: decent this year. Four point four to three ERA, one
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: point two eight whip nothing really egregious here for a
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: fewer runs a lot in every outing. Nothing fantastic either,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: but seventeen to six strikeout walk ratio that's mediocre ish,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: you know, it's not great, but not horrible. Twenty hits
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: in twenty to third innings. Yeah, I mean again, he's
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: a serviceable pitcher. Basically, he's gonna get you through like
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: five or so innings. He'll keep you in the game
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: more often than not. It looks like for now at
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: least he'll be going up against Arizona here. Though this
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly ballpark, Arizona only has fifteen of
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: bats against some four strikeouts, one walk, no extra base hits.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: He's on to a one thirty three average three one ops.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: Those are not bad numbers, so you might be able
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: to trust Burke to do okay in this game. He's
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: going up against the veteran Merril Kelly, so we have
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: a young guy against a veteran in this matchup here.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: Kelly three point three eight ERA so far this season.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: His whip is bad one point six to nine, but
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: he's only made two starts. I know he's made one start.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: My mistake. I think you can just kind of ignore
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: the fact that he walked four guys in that outing
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore or whatever. Kelly. You know, he was coming
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: back from injury or whatever, had a delayed start to
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: the season. He bitched pretty well last year when he
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: was on Texas, but Texas seems to correct like all
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: their pitching issues. Still. I think Kelly's alright. I mean
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: he's I think he's back on Arizona. I think he
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: was on Arizona in the past. But I think he's
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: an okay pitcher generally. But yeah, he had four walks,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: but again, maybe it was just because he was shaky
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: making his first start of the season. He allowed touring
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: runs in that outing against Baltimore. He's making his home
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: debut here. Now he's going up against a putrid White
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: Sox lineup. They only have nine at bats against him,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: but they have actually hit him. Only four hitters have
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: faced him, though, but they have a four to forty
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: four average, one thousand and one sixty seven ops, couple
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: of doubles in there from Pereira and Vargas, two to
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: one strike a walk ratio. I'm not gonna put that
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: much weight into that. I'm not ready to say that
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: Kelly's gonna do horrible in this game or anything like that.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. But Arizona has dropped from
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty five to minus one fifty here on
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: the money line, ninety percent of tickets, ninety seven percent
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Arizona. Arizona looks like a very
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: public side with money kind of fading them here. I
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: think I would actually probably lean White Sox first five here,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: you know, even though it looks like it might be
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: bounced back territory for Arizona here, I think Burke could
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: actually probably duel like duel with Kelly here, potentially maybe
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: get get the White Sox through those five innings close,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: so maybe like a run line first five innings White
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: Sox makes sense here. I don't want to deal with
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: the White Sox bullpen though, and money for some reason
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the under in that game. If
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: I was gonna do that, I would go first five probably,
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: even though I know we have rested bullpens here. I
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: know Arizona's has has good numbers this year, but at
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: least with the whip, I wouldn't trust the bullpens though.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: I think if I was gonna go under, i'd go
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: first five in that one. But maybe there's something to
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: look at there at the White Sox first five run line.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: But I really don't love that game. And the last game,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: like I said, is a play for me and it
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: is a total so you probably know what it is.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: We're kind of going back to the well here. You
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: know what I do. We're gonna go under in Dodgers
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, even though I know the Dodgers have an
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: elite offense, but I think we can counter that with
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: everything else that's going on in this game here, the
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: pitching and the fact that this is a pitcher friendly
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: ballpark here, uh, you might be able to find a
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. I might wait on this because
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: I saw it was close. I saw like under seven
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: and a half it minus won twenty five. I'd want
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: to try to find it at like minus one twenty
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: and get that hook on the seven. But the seven
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: and a half, you know, is the hook. They call
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: that half run the hook or half point is called
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: a hook. But yeah, you know what I mean, Like
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: seven is a key number because if it's a three
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: to three tie, you need one more run to break it.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: But you know, at least get the under seven in
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: this game, I would say, so you're on that key number.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: But what we got going on here? Dodgers did play yesterday,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: which you know that normally would worry me a little
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: bit about the bullpen, but I'm not that worried about
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: it here. Their bullpen's been decent this year, and they
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: used chwer relieve pittures just and I'm not too concerned
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: about that. They're coming in from Colorado, so you know
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: it's possible they're hitting. Actually kind of suffers a little bit,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: maybe gets a little bit tired after they exploded for
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: twelve runs yesterday. Coming into San Francisco from elevation, they're
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: going from a very hitter friendly park to a very
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: picture friendly park here now, so that's a bit of
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: an adjustment. You gotta think Dodgers are gonna have a
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: harder time hitting in this game, and given what the
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: pitching looks like, I think that's gonna be the case
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: as well. I did say I leaned Dodgers over their
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: team total in that game yesterday, and they did get
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: that done. I think they needed seven runs to do it,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: but they still did it easily in that game yesterday.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: But yes, I think runs are gonna be harder to
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: come by in this game. To an extent. San Francisco,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: I believe, did not play yesterday, So the Dodgers are
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: at a rest disadvantage here, so as far as the
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: side is concerned, Although I don't think I want San
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Francisco here, but San Francisco they're returning over from a
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: road trip, actually, so I definitely don't want them. They're
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: the other team returning home from the long road trip today.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: I forgot about that. They're coming home from the East coast.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: They went to Weirdly, they went to Baltimore, then to Cincinnati,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: then back to Washington. What the hell like these schedule
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: makers are so weird, man, Like, why wouldn't you play
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: Baltimore and then Washington back to back and then have
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: to go to Cincinnati. Maybe I don't know. I don't
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: know what to tell you. But San Francisco is traveling
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: cross country, so even though they didn't play yesterday, that's
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: not exactly a great spot either. But good for us
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: with the under is. I think having a day often
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: having to travel across the country, that can mess with
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: your hitting, like in the timing and stuff, having to
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: mess with your biological clock like that. So I think
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: we might see some pretty bad hitting here from San
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: Francisco here, And they're not a good offense anyway. So yes,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: we have to dodge the fact that the Dodgers are
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: clearly the number one offense in baseball. But I think
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: we can based on the pitching here and San Francisco
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: they're a weak offense. Man, what can we say? They're
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh right now in ops bullpen wise, the Dodgers
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: are still ninth in ops, excuse in whip ops ninth
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: in whip even though their era is a little bit high,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: it's in the fours. San Francisco is behind them and
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: whip a tenth, But I think San Francisco is a
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. They were good last year. They have a
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: better ra than the Dodgers doing the whip is almost
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: the same. But I think both bullpens are good enough
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: and rested enough to get us this under here in
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: this one. And of course we're also relying on the
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: starting pitching quite a bit in this game. Yoshinoba Yama modo.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, he should take the load off the bullpen
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit, get him get us deep enough into
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: this game that the bullpen doesn't have to get used
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: too much here. He's been very, very good obviously, two
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: point one ERA point eight to whip, twenty one to
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: three strikeout walk ratio. Not a ton of strikeouts in
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: twenty five and two thirds innings, but very good command numbers,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: very few walks, not a lot of hits either, eighteen hits.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: He's just not putting guys on base. Man. He's allowed
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: two or fewer earned runs in every outing, won a
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: piece in his last two outings. Yeah, we get it.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: He's good. He's in good form right now. All that
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: stuff against San Francisco really good numbers here too, for
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: the most part, except for the walks surprisingly seventy nine
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: at bats, so they are familiar with them. Twenty five strikeouts,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: eleven walks, and you know that's a little bit of
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: an issue. But he's held him to a one thirty
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: nine batting average in eighty five ops, so I'm not
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: too worried about that. Four eighty five is a very
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: low o ps. Now, I think where we get the uh,
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: you know, the key to this under though, is you
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: know all that looks good already. Yes, so setting up nicely,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: but I think people are gonna overlook landon route. And
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: you know, I gave you guys an under in his
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: last start and it worked out well. I think he's
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: still under the raidar and he's pretty good. Three point
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: three eighty R, a point nine to seven whip Those
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: are good numbers. Two point three eighty right, I think
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: I said three two point three eight. He's been pretty
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: good this year. Man. He has more ground balls than
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: fly balls, so I don't think that matters that much
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: in a pitcher friendly park like this, but still I'll
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: take it. Twenty four strikeouts in twenty two and two
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: thirds innings, that's good. Seven walks, that's a pretty good ratio,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: fifteen hits allout. All these numbers are good. He had
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: one bad outing, shockingly against the Mets, and yeah, the
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: one issue is he might worry about it because that
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: was at home, but I'm not gonna worry too much
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: about it. Yes, his one really bad outing was at home,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: and he's been excellent on the road. But come on, man,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: I mean this is at your friendly park. I'm not
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: expecting him to actually do poorly here. To me, I
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: think that was more of a fluke or something. He
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: had seven strikeouts in one walk in that outing too,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: and the bad fielding couldn't help him get out of
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: whatever inning that was, so a couple of unnerned runs
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: came home too, So I think we can we can
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: give him a pass for that. And he does actually
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: have decent numbers against the Dodgers. Uh, they've seen him
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but they have twenty five at bats
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: against some nine strike outs, four walks. Yes, it is
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: too many walks, but two hundred average six thirty oh ps.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: Those numbers look pretty good to me. And yeah, I
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: think he's a decent pitcher, still under the radar. Maybe
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: his career is, you know, starting to kind of hit
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: another level this year. I'm not gonna say some elite
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: pitcher or anything like that, but he's got good breaking
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: stuff that can definitely fool hit ors. So we're gonna
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: go under. In this game. We see seventy four percent
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: of tickets in ninety two percent of the cash on
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: the over. Right now, obviously I'm disagreeing with that the
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: total flip to seven juice to the over, but I'm
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: wondering if it may it's a false move to try
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: to get it up to that key number so the
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: real money can come in on the under here, because
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: I do not see the professional betters wanting the over
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: really in this game. Dodgers are a very public side.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: Eighty eight percent of tickets and cash there at minus
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: one seventy four. I think probably that is too high
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: a price, like I think Roup is being undervalued, like
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: I think he is being overlooked in the market here.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: You're usually you're gonna pay at tax for both the
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: Dodgers and Yamamoto. So yeah, I think there's no value
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: playing the Dodgers here, But I do not want to
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: play San Francisco returning home from a road trip, you
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So under is where we're going
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: with that game. All right, long show today, man, let's
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: close some of these tabs. We're gonna go to hockey Necks.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: We don't have too much left to do here though,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: so playoff time, playoffs NHL. We got our game right
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: last night with Dallas, so I forgot to mention it
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: because I think I was just talking about the Red
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: Sox getting us there. But yes, we got Dallas right
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: last night as well. They're winning pretty much the whole game,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: so I was happy about that. So yeah, we got
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: that done, even though statistically they got a bit outplayed,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: but they won the game. Ottinger did get us a
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: much much better outing than he had in the first outing.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I kept saying, Gus of some
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: from Minnesota, Minnesota is actually using Walstet. Walstet has been
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: their hotter goalie. But I think there were kind of
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: questions which goalie they were gonna use coming into the
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: playoffs though, but I believe it is Wallstet, So I
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: got that a little bit wrong. But anyway, we're talking
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: about today's games. First game up is going to be
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: my play in Montreal at Tampa Bay. You already know
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: what this is, But we need to get a little
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: bit creative with us because I want to play Tampa
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: Bay here. You know that they're my pick to win
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: the championship. I don't want I don't want that to
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: cloud my judgment here. But still Tampa Bay is the
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: more experienced team here, the better team probably should have
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: won game won, And now they're sitting in a situation
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: and where they could fall down two at home and
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: have to go to Montreal trailing the series O two.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: They cannot let that happen. They have to get this
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: win to stay in the series. And I know that
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: means the pressure is gonna be on and they're gonna
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: be favored a little bit heavily for that reason, but
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: they're not favored by that much more than they were
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: in Game one. We're gonna make this a split bet
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: and make your own minus one puck line on this.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: If you want to go Tampa over their team total,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: I think it's like three and a half. You could
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: do that too. Maybe you get there with that because
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: I think you'll get focused, and I think the focus
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: might come more a bit more on the defensive end
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: as well. So hopefully we can get there with this
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: at least if Tampa wins the game, we're at worse.
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: Gonna push this one partially on the minus one and
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: a half puck line at plus one forty and partially
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: on the money line at minus one eighty two. Now
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: it is the playoffs, so I think playoffs are kind
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: of more of an atmosphere we're playing a larger money line.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: Does make sense if you want to just go money
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: line on this, it is juicy, but I would agree
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: with playing Tampa Bay on the money line in this
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: one too. I'm just trying to get the price down
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: a bit. So this got my price down to minus
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: one eighteen on this. And if we're doing this to
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: win a one hundred instead of three hundred, seventy five
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: of that bet basically or seventy six was on the
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: money line as well, and then the amount to win
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: that you win from that would go on the money line.
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? You get what I'm saying.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: So that, wait is that writer? Did I reverse that?
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: I think I got that right? Yeah? Yeah, So if
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: you lose the puck line, correct, So if you lose
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: the puck line, no, wait, I think I reversed that.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: Hang on, I'll have to figure it out. But what
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: you want to do is your amount to win, the
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: amount that you win on the larger portion of it.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: Oh no, wait, that's right. I think that's right, hey,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: because you'll win that much and it will counterac what
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: you put on the Uh yeah, I flipped these. I
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: flipped these because this is actually the puck line here
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: because we're looking at a favorite or yeah, because sometimes
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: they do this with an undertog and it's like messing
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: with my mind right now. But yeah, like the larger
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: amount is always pretty much gonna be on the the
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: minus money line price. And then yeah, the amount that
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: you win on that, right, So if they win the
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: game outright at all, it will at least cover the
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: amount that you're putting on the on the puck line
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: part of it. If you win the money line part
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: of it, you get what I'm saying. So if they
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: win outright, but they win by exactly one, this bet
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: will push. That's how it works, all right. But yes,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, I think they're gonna bounce back here. Man,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: they're the better team. They lost in overtime. That was
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: a huge win for Montreal, But if you look at
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: what happened in this game, after Montreal was up one nothing,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, Tampa Bay was leading for a decent portion
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: of the game. Here in the second period, Tampa Bay
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: did fall behind, but they allowed two power play goals. Dude,
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I mean, Tampa Bay did
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: get two power play goals themselves, but then they lost
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: on a power play goal. I mean, it's just, you know,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: power plays are a thing. Like if you avoid penalties
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: more than you did in that first game, you know,
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: I think the game could be different. If you look
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: at the stats in the game, Tampa Bay had more
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: shots in the game. In fact, Montreal only had nineteen shots,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: So you gotta think Vasilevski is gonna have a better
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: outing this time, just like I said with with Atinger
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: last night. I mean, Vassilevsky, He's not usually gonna allow
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: four goals on nineteen shots, you know what I mean,
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: That's very few shots. Tampa Bay actually was the more
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: physical team as well, though Montreal did win a majority
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: of the faceoffs, so that is a concern there that
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: Montreal did dominate the faceoff battle. But other than that,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: I think Tampa's the better team. They're pretty good at home,
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: although yes, Montreal is actually good on the road, so
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: we got to dodge that. But I still think Tampa
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: Bay is the better team. We're going with Tampa Bay here. Yes,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: they're a public side, eighty eight percent of the tickets,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on them. I think
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: maybe the professional money is gonna be on Tampa Bay
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: as well. They're at minus win eighty three here. It's
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: hard to gauge some of these percentages here in the market,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: just because the public doesn't get as involved in the NHL,
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: but maybe a little bit more in the playoffs. But yes,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: we'll go with Tampa Bay there, all right. The Bruins
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo, my Boston Bruins. I think the Bruins might
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: be dead, dude. I know the market read is saying
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: to go against Buffalo here. By the way, the market
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: is leaning towards the under in that Montreal Tampa Bay game.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: The market is indicating on the under in every one
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: of these games, by the way, for what that's worth,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure about that. In these game twos,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: you know, sometimes the defenses will be a little bit less,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: you know, the defense will be a little bit more tired.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if I like Unders really in
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: any of these games. I don't do totals on hockey anyway,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: and Unders, you know, you're always worried about the empty netters,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: which you know, it doesn't mean you should never play Unders,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: but it's just not my thing anyway. Boston at Buffalo,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: Now people might look at this and think, oh, the
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: Bruins are gonna zigzag here because they lost the first game. No,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: I mean the way they lost that game, there's just
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: no way I see Bruins as being a dead team
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: after this. This is a huge game, and the Bruins
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: had the game, they were winning two to nothing. And Geeky,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: who scored the first goal, had like a wide open
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: look at the net. If you saw that screen shot
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: that was floating around and didn't shoot the puck, what
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: the fuck was he doing? He had like one hundred
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: percent he's gonna get a goal on that pretty much,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: and he didn't take the shot, Like not Vasilevsky, Lion
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: or whatever, whoever the hell the goalie is for Baltimo
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: or Buffalo, excuse me, was like way out of position,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: not even looking at Geeky who was off to his right,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: clean shot at the net. I don't know what the
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: fuck was going on with that. But then the Bruins
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: completely blew the game. They gave up three goals in
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: like a four and a half minute span and then
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: an empty netter at the end. Yes, and then they
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: did cut it back to a one goal game with
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: a power play goal at the very end. That didn't
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: matter at that point because it was in the final
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: minute of the game. In fact, it was with eight
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: seconds left. It would have been insane if the Bruins
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: tied it with two goals in ten seconds or whatever.
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: But no, the way the Bruins lost that game and
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: imploded like that after they had the game, I don't
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: see them getting back up off the ice in this case.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: And they got dominated in this game, dude. Bruins won
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: a slight percentage of the faceoffs with Buffalo had eighteen
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: more shots than the Bruins did. Granted, some of that
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: was because the Bruins were winning most of the game,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: but Buffalo had fifty three hits as well. Usually don't
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: see the Bruins being that less physical than their opponent.
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: But that's what happened here. And I don't even like Buffalo,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: like I think Buffalo is an overrated team. I don't
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: think they're particularly good. I think they're the weakest one
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: seed easily. The money is coming in towards the Bruins,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: so I guess I can hope that the Bruins are
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: gonna win as a Bruins fan. Buffalo down to minus
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: won sixty here seventy seven percent of tickets, sixty five
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Buffalo side. Here money
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: is saying Bruins, I don't want it again. I mean,
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: there was nothing really misleading about the fact that Buffalo
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: won that game. They won the game statistically. The Bruins
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: the way they lost, I don't know, man could be
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot for them. Bruins are also much much
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: better at home. They're pretty bad on the road, so
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. If they could steal a game on
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: the road, that would be awesome, and they're you know,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't like it. Utah at Vegas,
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: that game was close for a while. You might be
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: able to say similar things about Utah that I just
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: did about the Bruins, because this game was close and
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: Utah fell apart late and lost the game. The game
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: was two two into the third period and then power
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: play goal, you know, gave Vegas the lead, but they
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: were still only hanging on to a one game lead
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: for a bit or no, excuse me, that tied the game.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? Utah was winning the game going
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: into the third period. The power play goal by Stone
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: tied the game, and then yeah, Vegas took the lead
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit later, but this is still a close
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: game the whole way. The statistics were close, so the
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: Vegas was the more physical team, way more hits, a
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: couple fewer shots, but also won the face off battles.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: So you know, I have Vegas winning the conference in
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: my bracket, which is maybe a little bit insane. But Vegas,
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, they look hot under Tortorello right now.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: The way that Utah lost that game and they could
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: have had that game, that might have been the game
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: they needed to steal, they might not have an easy
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: time of it this time. I don't know, but I
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: think I would lean to Vegas here. The money is
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: actually agreeing with that. Vegas is at minus one fifty
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: three right now, down for minus one sixty seventy three
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, seventy eight percent of the cash
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: on Vegas. Yeah, I think I leaned Vegas there. Again,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: I think the experience is going to carry them through
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: at least this series against an inexperienced Utah team, And
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: you might be getting the better goaltending out of Vegas
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: here as well. They're using heart in net and you know,
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's still a pretty young guy
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: and he came back from injury or whatever. But they're
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: they're rolling with him. They're gonna try to roll with
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: the hot hand, and I think that win is gonna
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: give him some confidence right here. You know the fact
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: that he was able to do well in that game,
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: even when it was looking not great. He gave up
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: a goal early in the game, kept going and you
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: know it worked out pretty well. So I like that.
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: I don't really trust the Melka that much really for Utah.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: So that's what we got going on there. I will say,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: by the way, Bruins, I do think they have the
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: better goaltending. I will give them that. I think the
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: Bruins might be the better defensive team. But also Swayman
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: is definitely the better goalie in that Bruins series, all right,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: And then we have Kings in Colorado. These games were
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: all on ESPN and ESPN two. Colorado won the first game.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: It was close though, they only won two to one,
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's gonna shock them into a little bit
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: of focus here. Maybe Colorado is gonna come out with
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit more intensity this time. I don't think
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: I want the Kings here, even though the Kings have
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: actually been better on the road than at home, Colorado
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: is just way way better than the Kings. Man, and
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: you're paying a huge price on Colorado though, up to
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: minus two eighty five, ninety percent of tickets, ninety seven
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Colorado. It's a low total
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: to a five and a half with money kind of
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: indicating towards the under. But I don't know, man, And
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: this might be one of those games where Colorado, because
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: the first game of the series after a layoff, although
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: it was only a layoff of a couple of days,
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: sometimes the offense comes in a little bit cold. You
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: might see better offense out of Colorado here. I think
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: maybe looking towards the Colorado over their team total could
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: maybe be an approach in this game here. I don't
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: really think they're gonna lose, but I don't know. We'll
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: see I mean, as you know, I have Colorado losing
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: in the conference finals series, but we will see. I mean,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think they should have that much difficult to
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: getting through this particular series though, But I don't have
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: a great read on this game. But again, the Kings
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: had such a close game. That was the game that
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: they almost were able to steal. In a series like this,
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, that could kind of hang
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: you over into the next game. So I think Colorado
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: is going to win here. But laying like multiple goals
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: on a puck line, I would not do that, Like,
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: I do not want to deal with a team it's
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: that heavily priced. So all right, let's go to NBA here.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: We have a first game is six or Celtics. These
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: are all Peacock and NBC and NBC Sports. Celtics won
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: the first game in a total blowout. It was a
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: laugh for the Celtics. Had their backups in at the
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: end of that game and they were still playing pretty
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: well and won by over thirty. But if you look
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: at the box score, now, the Celtics didn't shoot that well.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: So that's a good sign for the Celtics that they
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: didn't have like a crazy offensive explosion in this game
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: as far as like hitting more threes than they usually
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: do or whatever. But the real outlier was that Philadelphia
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: hit four to three pointers in this game, So I
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: think they might be able to improve on that at
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: the very least. Philadelphia had a terrible shooting game in general,
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: thirty nine percent from the field, seventeen percent from three.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: You got to think there's gonna be some positive regression there.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: Celtics shot about what they normally do, maybe a little
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: bit high with the fifty percent from the field. But yeah,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: obviously the Celtics were the better team, but it wasn't
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: this much of a blowout, so I would probably lean
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: to Philadelphia plus the points here. You know, this is
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: also one of those games the Celtics. If you've been
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: watching them in the Missoula era, the Celtics, they come out,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: they usually come out with a lot of fire in
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: game one, and that's the game where they have a
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: lot of blowouts. And I've been in attendance for a
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: lot of those games. Then a lot of times they
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: just won't have as much intensity in the second game
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: as they'll think, oh, this is gonna be easy. You know,
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is still without Embiid whatever, the Celtics might kind
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: of take their foot off the gas a little bit here.
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're gonna lose. I mean, I hope not,
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. But I would lean towards taking
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: the points of the Sixers. Also, the Celtics were I
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: think a thirteen point favorite, maybe thirteen and a half
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: in Game one, and now they're fourteen and a half
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: in this one, literally just because they won the first
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: game in a blowout, so there's no real value laying
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: the points with the Celtics here. I would lean Sixers
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: plus the points here, money also coming in towards the
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: under for what that's worth, the totals at two sixteen,
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: not necessarily going to disagree with it under here, I
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: don't even know. Do the first game go under? I
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: don't even know. No, I think it went over right, Actually,
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: I think it went It landed probably right near the number.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. If it went over,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: it might have still gone under. Actually, eighty two percent
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: of the tickets eighty five percent of the cash on
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: the Celtics, so because the Sixers didn't even get to
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: one hundred in the first game money. You know, it
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: looks like the seller is going to be in the
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: public side. I'm not going to read into that cash
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: percentage too much here, so I think, yeah, I would
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: lean to the Sixers in that one. The money seems
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: to be more heavily indicating towards fading the Spurs. But
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: I actually don't like that as much. Spurs dropped from
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half to eleven and a half. They
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: were eleven and a half in game one as well.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: Eighty four percent of the tickets and sixty six percent
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Spurs, so they're public, which
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: is not surprising. The money is indicating towards Portland. I
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: just don't know, man. I mean, san Antonio won the
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: first game by thirteen, but I was watching that game
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: and san Antonio was blowing Portland out of the building. Dude,
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: san Antonio looked like they just basically stopped playing before
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: the game was over. Because this game was completely over. Yeah,
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: like around this point, like in the fourth quarter. Yeah,
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: they were winning one hundred to seventy nine in the
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and then they went on this stretch where
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: they didn't score for like four minutes of game time.
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: So you know what I mean, this could have been
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: much much more of a blowout if san Antonio didn't
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: go four minutes without scoring, the game was totally in hand.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: I think san Antonio just packed it in completely, you know,
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know the NBA basketball, it's a game
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: of runs, whatever. But this game was more of a
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: blowout than it looked like on the scoreboard. Although I
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: guess you could make the argument that san Antonio did
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: hit a lot of threes in Portland didn't. So san
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: Antonio was plus fifteen from three point range. So yes,
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: that is true. They hit forty five percent of their threes.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: There should be some regression there. But and Portland actually
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: took more field goal attempts in the game, believe it
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: or not, but that was kind of because san Antonio
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: was going to the line more than whatever. San Antonio
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: won the game though obviously, I mean, they had a
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: huge lead twenty one. Like I said, in the fourth quarter,
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: they won the rebound battle pretty easily. Yeah, I think
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: san Antonio might be able to win this particular game
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: by more. I actually think that first result was actually
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: closer than it actually was, just based on watching that game. Yeah,
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: I think the Trailblazers. I don't think they're putting much
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: up much of a fight in the series. Even though
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: you could maybe make the argument for the zigzag here,
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: that's not an argument I'm making, ma'am. I think the
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: zigzag might apply more to the seventy six ers because
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: that was more of an outlier, ridiculous blowout result, whereas
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: the Spurs wound up barely covering when it looked like
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: it was gonna be an easy cover for them in
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: that first game. So I'm gonna slightly lead to the
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: Spurs in that game, but market is completely against it,
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: and obviously that means my final game is going to
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: be a play. And yeah, this is a zigzag if
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: I ever saw one, because well, we went from the
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: pub was all over Houston in game one. Now they're
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: not just because of one result. The public. I was
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: expecting the public to be more on the Lakers, and
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: maybe they will be by the time this game goes.
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: Fifty nine percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of the
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: casual on the Lakers. Looks like some of the money
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: is coming in towards the Lakers. But I think we're
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: getting an anti public favorite with the Rockets, And you know,
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: I like these anti public favorites because you're getting the
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: team it's supposed to win and the public doesn't want them,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: so I like that. But also, yeah, so we're on
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: the Rockets here minus the four and a half. I
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: still saw some four and a half's out there, not
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: really much of a difference to five. So hopefully they
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: can cover either one of them. If you want to
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: go money line on it, you could do that too.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: You're gonna pay a bit for that, though. You could
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: put it in a parley, although I hate parlays market
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: by the way, I forgot to mention is indicating on
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: the under in all of these three games, by the way,
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: and the total is pretty low in this one at
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: two point seven, which does worry me about laying points
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: on the road. I know, but this isn't that high
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: of a point spread. And this is the NBA. I
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: mean a lot points get scored in the NBA. Highest
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: total is in that Spurs game, by the way, two
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: twenty and a half. So that does kind of help
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: if you want to lay the points with the Spurs.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: That does kind of help that a little bit. The
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: fact that it looks like it's gonna be a little
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: bit higher scoring than the other games. But let's look
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: at what happened in this first game. LA the Lakers here,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: you know, you know, there's still without Reeves and without Luca.
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: Luca is not coming back yet in this game. What
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: happened in this game, it was one of the biggest
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: outliers I've ever seen, dude. And Houston was still winning
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: this game in the second half. I think at various
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: points right or early in the second half, it was
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: like a close game. It was a tied game. What
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: happened in this game, this might be some of the
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: biggest outlier shit that you'll ever see. Houston lost this
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: game by nine, even though they had twenty seven more
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: field goal attempts than the Lakers did in the game,
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: twenty seven more. They had ninety three field goal attempts
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: to the Lakers sixty six. Are you serious? I don't
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: think I've ever seen team lose a game when they
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: had almost thirty more field goal attempts in the game
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: than their opponent. It just doesn't happen. And Houston only
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: hit thirty eight percent of them, whereas the Lakers shot
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent from the field and fifty three percent
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: from three, although yes Houston did hit one more three
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: because they took more, but thirty three percent from three
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: on the Houston side. These are massive outlier percentages. Obviously,
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: this is going to regress. Yeah, the Lakers are a
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: good offense, but come on, man, I mean, who was
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: doing this? Lebron and Canard? I mean, that's not gonna
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: happen again. Their best offensive players are both out. There's
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be major regression from the Lakers here. There's just
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: no way they're gonna keep doing this. And the Lakers
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: are not very good on the defensive side of things,
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: so I don't think there's any way Houston is gonna
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: shoot this poorly again. I mean, this is just absurd,
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: Like when I look at this box scroun like, you
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: have to be kidding me. I've never seen anything like this.
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: Houston won the rebound battle by nine, and yes, they
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 1: won the turnover battles, so they probably should have won
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: the game just based on that. But the shooting was
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: just such an outlier in this game. I've never really
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: seen anything like that before. This is like such a
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: clear zigzag spot to play Houston. It's insane, and you know, Houston. Also,
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: you know, they're just in the zigzag spot because they
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: were supposed to win. They were a favorite in that
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: game and they lost, although they went down to a
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: two point favor because, by the way, Kevin Durant didn't
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: play in this game, so they're only two and a
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. And I'm assuming he is playing, because
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: we're getting a four and a half here, which is
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: what the number was gonna be when Durant was supposed
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: to play in the first game, So I'm assuming that
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: means he's playing here, which should help. I mean, I
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: don't think it's like the reverse injured player spot here,
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, where I talk about how
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: when a star player comes back, a lot of times
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: the team will have like an adjustment period and whatever,
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: and they will kind of take the foot off the gas.
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: But obviously they're not gonna do that. They're losing a
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: one in a playoff series here, you know what I mean.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: They're obviously not gonna show up unfocused for this. You know,
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna be like, oh good, Durant is back.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: We could take any No, No, that's not gonna happen
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: in a playoff series where you just lost the game.
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we're we're gonna go with Houston here. Man,
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: we gotta make sure, probably a guess that Durant is
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: gonna play. I mean, if he isn't, maybe I even
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: still like this. We gotta see though. I think he's
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: a game time decision right now, so we do have
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: to see if he is gonna play or not. Let
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: me just see what we have going on here, Yeah,
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: game time decision. He's expected to play tonight, it looks
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: like as of now. Yeah, I mean, it's just something
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: to keep an eye on. I guess, So if you
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: don't want to play Houston now, I mean, I'm expecting
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: he's gonna play though, But of course if he doesn't play,
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: the number is gonna drop again to like two to
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: two and a half, which is a better number, and
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: I probably would actually still play it at that price,
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: Like this is just too much of a zigzag spot
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: to pass up, I think, in my opinion. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: it's that's just you can't replicate what happened in that
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: first game at all. Unbelievable outliers going on in that game.
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: We're on Houston minus the points there and that's the
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: last play and that's the last game to talk about
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: as well. So there you go. Those are my plays.
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened with the Yeah, the stream
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: yard sometimes shift back to the right layout one more time.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: The plays today or the Cincinnati Reds on the money
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 1: line under in Dodger San Francisco, at least get the
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: under seven. You might be able to find a seven
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: and a half. I'll updated the description if I find
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: a better number on that. And then I'm tentatively possibly
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: gonna have Pittsburgh as well. I think it was Pittsburgh, right,
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: but I got to see what the matchup is actually
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be in that game. So follow me on Instagram
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: and you'll see that. We're also on that split bet
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: on the Tampa Bay Lightning, where you know, it seems
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: like a pussy way of doing it, but you know
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. Will be a little bit
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: more risk averse with that one. They better just get
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: the win there, but it's you know, a little bit
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: less of a price to lay on that, so you're
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: not laying as much as you would on the money line.
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: And then we're on Houston minus the points as well,
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: so we have Tampa Bay split bet run line money
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: line in the hockey and then Houston Rockets minus the points.
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: That's what we're doing. That's gonna do it. Learn a
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: toad on Twitter. You can subscribe to me there if
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: you want to help me out. That way, you get
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: into a group chat with a few of us. Jeffrey
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: is in there, a couple of cool guys in there,
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: if you want to hang out there. I'm on Instagram,
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: of course, pay attention to that, especially today because I
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: might add a play on the pirates, but there's a
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: chance I don't like, I don't know, we'll see. I
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: just want that information, man, Like. Subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: of course, you know, let's bump this up. Let's get
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: some monetization here, you know, all that stuff. Let's get
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: it done. Baby. We're we're not really getting new subscribers
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: here on the YouTube, so I want to improve that.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 1: We're on audio, which is actually doing better right now.
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: Those numbers are going up on Apple, Spotify, whatever, so
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: some people out there are listening. I don't know, good
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: reviews over there. Tell everybody about the show, you know,
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: wherever you are, just mention it everywhere. That helps me out.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: Got a lot of stuff going on with the other
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: stuff that I'm doing covered in yuk is, you know
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: kind of you know, not a lot going on with
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: my yuke stuff right now. I have one cover that
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: I did that I put on Twitter that I'm gonna
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: add there that's on you on YouTube as well. I've
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: been thinking about maybe merging the two channels though, so
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know what I want to do with it
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: right now. Paedreon dot com, slash learn it to it
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: if you want to support me that way. There is
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit of bonus stuff, but I gotta add
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: more obviously. Then Loser casts will be back tonight, so
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: I have a few ideas for my loser pick. I
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: gotta figure out who I want to pick tonight for that.
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna bring all three of them up on
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: the show though, so be on the lookout for that
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night, Baby, It's Tuesday Louesday. I'm gonna pitch that
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: as a slogan for us there. I like it. And
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: then I've been on some other shows. I was on
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: two shows last night. So the Giants podcast that I'm
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: doing with Ben Weir started last night had Adam Nutter
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: on it as well. He is also a Giant san
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: we did I don't know, probably about forty five on
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: that one, maybe less. We talked about the upcoming NFL Draft,
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: which I don't bet the draft or anything like that.
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if you guys want me
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: to talk about the draft. I don't do much with
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: the drafts, So you know, I don't think I'm gonna
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: do like a draft show or anything like that here,
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: but I will do an NFL season win total show
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: after the drafts that we kind of know who the
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: personnel really is here. I did that last year, and
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: my totals were really good. My three that I mentioned
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: as like the ones that I would actually play, although
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 1: I actually should have played them. All of them won.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: So let's let's try to do that again this year.
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: And then what else. I was on A five till
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: midnight last night after the G spots the G Spot Show,
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: so you can look for the G Spot which is
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be that's a Giants podcast that we're gonna be
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 1: doing weekly, I think during football season, even though I'm
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: not a Giants fan, but I was rooting for them
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: against the Patriots. At least I'm huge Dart fan. So
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: that's how I'm on that show and then yeah, five
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: till midnight. I was on that show last night. You
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: got checked that out. It's fun hanging out with those guys.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: I've been on that show several times. That's with Samuel
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: the Ill Scholar. Adam Nutter is also on that show
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: Luke and Typo, although it's just been Typo the last
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: couple of times. I've been on that show, so he's
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: got the huge stash now and then usually Kyle Matovic
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 1: is on it. But I think his band, which I
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: wish I remember what the fuck? His band's name is
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: something with crown and I don't remember. His band is
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: pretty good. I don't remember the name of the band,
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: though I wish I remembered. You can find him if
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 1: you find him on Twitter, you'll figure out what his
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: band name is. There like a hard rock band, metal band,
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: kind of whatever you want to call it. But yes,
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: he was not playing because they think he's on location
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: with his band somewhere right now. And then we did
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 1: have that was it. It was me, Adam, Sam and
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: type A last night. So yeah, I think that's gonna
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 1: do it. Man. Yeah, so check all that stuff out
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 1: and then uh yeah, there might be more stuff coming
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: from me. I'm gonna do because I did it last
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: year and it went well. I'm gonna do a Kentucky
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: Derby show. I've been starting to do a little bit
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: of research on the horses there, and I never pay
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: attention to it until the you know, Triple Crown races.
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 1: But I did a separate show for each Triple Crown
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: race last year and the other two didn't go as
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: well for my predictions. The Kentucky Derby went really well
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 1: last year though, because we had Baeza Baby. He was
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 1: the one that was I think, just obliterating a lot
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 1: of people's tickets. We had him in the exotics, so
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 1: that was that was what we did last year. That's
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 1: how we won. And I think that horse that's gonna
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 1: be like Baeza this year is going to be Why
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: do I already forget? I already forget his name? Oh
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: my god. I'll tell you when I when I do
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 1: the show, I'll tell you there's a horse that only
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: got into the race, just like Baeza last year because
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: of other horses that had to be scratched, and a
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 1: lot of times those horses get way overlooked. And this
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 1: is a horse that has run like really solid races
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: but just didn't win them. And I think that horse
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: is gonna I'll look it up right now. I think
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 1: that horse is gonna be a real threat in the
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Durabay. Hang on it is, well, I have to.
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: I'm jumping the gun here because I gotta do it
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: on the actual show. I don't even know where this
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 1: horse is listed right now. Man Chief Wallaby is the
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: horse I'm talking about. Yeah, so yeah, I mean I
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: pretty much. It seems like I'm probably gonna be throwing
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 1: him in my tickets along with the further Ado seems
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: like just the purest, like best horse right now and
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 1: the best style for it. And then yeah, Commandment and
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: Renegade look like they're gonna be really difficult in the
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: race as well, So we got to figure out what
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: we want to do. Probably the exotics for me are
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 1: gonna be those four horses, but I don't really know yet,
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: so we'll see. I gotta do more research on it.
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 1: But be on the lookout for that because that's coming
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: up on May second or something like that. It's a
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: week from Saturday. I think be on the lookout this Saturday.
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 1: I Believe or this Friday. Actually, I think I'm gonna
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: be on Are You Smarter Than a Politician? And they're
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: probably gonna hate me because they're more of an autistic
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 1: libertarian show where it's like, should the government do this?
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 1: And then everybody goes, no, they shouldn't, and everybody goes
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: yeah woo. I'm like, no, I'm gonna go on and
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 1: say some absolutely outrageous shit on the show. Be on
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: the lookout for that, because I think I'm gonna be
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: on it on Friday. But we'll see that's gonna do it.
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow with this show obviously. Peace