Latest / Disguised Coverage / How the Buffalo Bills 2024 Offense Can Adapt & Evolve | DC

Transcript

How the Buffalo Bills 2024 Offense Can Adapt & Evolve | DC · Disguised Coverage

0:00
It's thirty eight. All bills can win in here, Wake puts it down,
0:03
the kick is on the way and dock m the bell good one?
0:07
How the hell that one home? How one? They were a party one
0:14
not party way? Incredible? Why not combat by my bell? Jacksonville's perfect
0:21
record on the line right here, quick kicking, look excited? Touchdown Kyle
0:43
Williams touchdound amazing, unbelievable. They puttied william who's hats to full back and
0:56
he scores a touchdown. It's wealthier to face tackle. What's good? Folks,
1:15
family, friends, loved ones, enemies. Friend of me is Wizards,
1:19
which is Muggles, mud bloods, people of Middle Earth. To another
1:22
episode of disguised coverage. The only podcast in existence that gives you an equal
1:25
amount of blueberries in each muffin and is presented by the best pizza in Buffalo,
1:29
New York, and that is one PI Pizza. You can find the
1:30
online menu in the episode show notes. So they're here on YouTube or whichever
1:34
podcasting app or platform you are listening to this show on. I am your
1:38
host, Anthony Prohaska. Find me on Twitter at pro Underscore Underscore and that's
1:42
Pro two underscores a n t in tonight's episode of Disguise. Coverage is a
1:49
conversation that I'm very excited to have. It contains. If you watch this
1:52
show regularly, which I hope a lot of you folks do. For those
1:53
of you who don't hear new welcome to the show. I've been dropping little
1:57
pieces regarding me Merger cyclical, you know, Rust and Cole True Detective Smash
2:02
the can time as a flat circle type of nuggets really for the past couple
2:07
of years, talking about, you know that the direction football was going in
2:12
larger trends offensively and defensively obviously, you know, through the lens or shaped
2:16
by what's going on with the Buffalo Bills. And ironically, the Buffalo Bills
2:21
offense has really been kind of one of the poster children for why defenses have
2:27
switched the way they have and the reason they've swung the pendulum in certain directions
2:30
and in certain ways. And that's kind of where this conversation comes into in
2:36
tonight's episode, looking at the twenty twenty four Buffalo Bills offense and trying to
2:40
see the schematic direction they are going to go in again. Personnel alignments,
2:45
formations, groupings, anything and everything that relates to what we could expect to
2:50
see from this offense, and then putting it kind of against a backdrop of
2:54
the trends that we're seeing league wide offensively and defensively, so that larger schematic
3:00
football conversation, and then also tying it into how the Bills fall into that,
3:06
what it means for them, so on and so forth, and all
3:07
that kind of stuff. And to do that, I am joined by mister
3:12
j Pacosta, one of and I don't say this lightly, even though I
3:15
do say for a couple of people, one of truly my favorite guests to
3:19
grace the show. You crush it every time you're here. I brought you
3:22
on for a specific reason, which we're going to get into in a minute,
3:24
but one, I'm pumped to have you here in general. Two,
3:27
I'm pumped to have you here for this conversation. Three, thank you for
3:30
joining me. Welcome to the show, no problem, Thanks for having me.
3:32
I'm excited to get into the nitty gritty. I got the now defunk
3:37
Orlando Guardians UFL shirt on, so I'm ready to get him the real nitty
3:40
gritty of football. I love it. We're all like floorted out, I'm
3:44
wearing a Messi in Miami, Jersey. Even though it's still like Messi's it
3:51
still breaks my heart to watch him no disrespect, watching him play in the
3:53
MLS, like it truly crushes my soul. And then like I'm still a
3:57
Barcelona guy and just watching how like they're just so dysfunctional and it's a conversation
4:02
for another time, like it just it. I love it, but it
4:05
pains me at the same time. It's very hurtful, you know, it's
4:09
actually funny. And some of my prep for this episode I came across like
4:13
an article I think you and Mark Schofield did at the beginning of like twenty
4:15
twenty three regarding like bigger body like football coming into play. And you also
4:21
had like the link in that article for like the big boy grilling on the
4:25
roof, like which I love, Like just well played and well done and
4:28
that tight end even more so to why I wanted to have you on this
4:32
episode. But what brought you onto Oh you're always on my radar, but
4:35
what brought you specifically onto my radar for this episode is on the tenth,
4:40
so eleven days ago, you had a tweet So Matt Harmon reception perception.
4:44
Matt Harmon put out some stuff on you know, put a clip, quick,
4:47
little clip out on Kean Coleman, and you know why the Bills drafted
4:50
him and where he's good at, where he's bad at, YadA, YadA,
4:53
and you quote tweeted that and you said, quote kind of goes into
4:56
some of my thoughts on the Bills kse ish innovation to their offense, going
5:00
to try and be more efficient over the middle of the field and use yards
5:04
after catch, but to get teams out of too high they're gonna try and
5:09
beat teams up in the run game. And this is something I've echoed on
5:12
this show before the draft happened, before free agency happened, and then once
5:16
we started to see the dust settle a little bit on this Bill's roster with
5:21
what they've done from a wide receiver standpoint in terms of who they brought in
5:25
through free agency in the draft, who they've jettisoned out and not brought back,
5:29
and there where we currently sit with this team. So that's kind of
5:31
the jump off point for this episode. Speak about that a little bit,
5:34
you know what it means why you said, you know, kind of that
5:38
Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs ish renovation to their offense, and like kind of
5:43
how it sets the table for the Bills in twenty twenty four offensively for you,
5:46
all right, So to explain what I mean by the Bills case seification
5:50
of their offense in twenty twenty four, allow me to take you guys back
5:55
to twenty eighteen. What, of course, is exactly how I want to
5:59
start this saw Sean mcvay's second year as a head coach of the Los Angeles
6:03
Rams. He takes him to the Super Bowl running wide zone play action,
6:06
beating the absolute hell out of the Seattle cover three teams because all they would
6:12
do was just run over routes off of play action, you know. And
6:15
then the next year Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco takes the forty nine ers to
6:20
the Super Bowl where they just beat the hell out of those Seattle covered three
6:25
teams by running over routes. So we get to this point where everybody in
6:30
the NFL, everybody in their mother and their grandmother, is running the seattle
6:32
cover. It's what worked in the mid twenty tens. It's assumed it's gonna
6:38
be what's working now. Then the Chiefs straff guy named Patrick Mahomes, and
6:42
they just beat the crap out of teams, throwing it way down the field.
6:46
I believe in Patrick Mahomes' first year as a starter, his average depth
6:48
of target was nine yards, which is unbelievable to think about now. So
6:55
fast forward to twenty twenty three, Patrick mahomes average depth of target six point
7:00
four. It has gone down drastically from that moment, but their offense has
7:05
seemingly gotten better, and it's because they've gotten more efficient in the five to
7:11
ten yard areas and how they did it is especially prominent in the way that
7:16
defenses have started to play opposing offense. So I talked a little bit about
7:20
the Shanahan and mcveighs. Everybody and their grandmother is running that offense. If
7:26
you want to be a coordinator in the NFL, you're probably coming from that
7:30
tree. Defenses have started to punch back. I think a football offense and
7:35
defense as it's sort of like chess, but it's also like boxing. Everybody's
7:40
gonna have a jab. Everybody's got to throw out the jab, and then
7:44
they come over there with the right cross and that knocks you out the jab
7:48
through like twenty eighteen to twenty twenty was wide zone in the NFL. Everybody's
7:54
just thrown out that draft, thrown out the feeler because cover three you'd get
7:58
that weak side player in conflict because you root out the quarterback, and then
8:03
there's the over route. Whole bunch of conflicts. That was the haymaker.
8:07
The play action off of that was the haymaker. Then defenses just start playing
8:11
too high with how much everybody passed the ball. Defensive decided we're not gonna
8:16
let you hit the explosive plays. You're going to have to try and matriculate
8:20
yourself down and you can do that three ways. I like to think of
8:24
it in three buckets. The first one is the Kansas City and to an
8:28
extent, Cincinnati style, which is youre's gonna be the most efficient team in
8:33
football throwing five yard routes. Patrick Mahomes is a buzzsaw in those areas because
8:39
he's so quick with processing, so accurate underneath, and eventually you're gonna want
8:46
to keep as many times and you get hit with the jab, you think
8:50
you gotta move out the way. So as many times as teams get hit
8:54
by those five yard underneathroouts, it turns into six seven yards because you're playing
8:58
so deep, the safety is gonna have to come up and that's how you
9:01
get out of the too high shell and then you hit the explosives or you
9:05
can just destroy teams in the running games. This is where I believe Detroit
9:11
has lead and it makes it considering how the personnel has changed in the NFL.
9:18
You see a bunch of two hundred and twenty two hundred and thirty pound
9:22
linebackers got two hundred and eighty pound defensive tackles, and it's because you want
9:26
to get lighter against the pass, and because everybody's playing those penny fronts,
9:31
those five ones, the bare front, where basically you want to play a
9:35
gap and a half and you want to kind of slow down the wide zone.
9:39
The reason those five to one fronts work don't. The reason the five
9:43
to one fronts work against wide zone is because the lineman can't climb in four
9:48
man fronts that center if you're running it. If they're running, let's see
9:52
an overfront to the tight end and you got a one tech in the back
9:56
on the back side of the center, that guard can scoop out that one
10:01
tech center is getting easy climb to the second level and there's your cutback.
10:07
In five man fronts, the center cannot climb because there is a nose tackle
10:11
right in front of him. That's an immediate man zone. I think,
10:16
I can't believe I'm referencing him with this. But Erban Meyer no man inside
10:20
zone. And he said, basically, it's whoever is in that area next
10:26
to me. If there's a nose tackle there, if there's a one tech
10:31
there, I'm climbing the him. If you're not covered, you get to
10:33
the next level. You can't do that. In five mayre fronts, everybody
10:37
has a man that they have to block because that is their next immediate area,
10:41
which allows linebackers to run free. You know what works against five man
10:45
fronts, power and power and hitting the hell at a defensive lineman. Look,
10:50
everybody wants to play two hundred and twenty two hundred and thirty pound linebackers.
10:56
We're gonna win with six people in the box. That's all nice and
10:58
good until a three hundred and thirty pound guard is hitting your two hundred and
11:03
twenty pounds safety turn into a linebacker and eventually, like we see that start
11:09
to wear on opponents. I know the wear hair thing kind of gets like
11:13
cliched on football Twitter, but that's it's real. It is again. You
11:18
keep getting hit with the jab, it's gonna hurt. That jab is gonna
11:24
hurt. After like the sixth round, you know you're gonna want to start
11:26
moving. And I think that's where Detroit has gone, and to an extent,
11:31
that's where Buffalo went under Joe Brady. But I'm gonna get to that
11:33
later. The third bucket where I think teams can get opponent opposing defenses out
11:39
of two high shells is having a plus win in the run game at quarterback.
11:43
This is where Philadelphia absolutely destroyed the league in twenty twenty three because or
11:48
twenty twenty two, because Jalen Hurts is such a magnificent runner. As a
11:54
quarterback, you have to look out for that guy in the run game because
11:58
of all the RPOs. You have to bring a guy down because you're out,
12:01
you're out manned in the run gif you try to run those light boxes,
12:05
you got a six man box. You have multiple options. You know,
12:09
if you pull that zone read, you got a safety who's not as
12:13
strong, or a mind back wer's not as fast trying to tackle Jalen Hurts.
12:18
It becomes that sort of problem. Yes, the Chiefs decided to be
12:24
the most efficient team in football throwing underneath that, and you know there was
12:28
a question about if trading Tyreek Hill was going to end up working, and
12:33
then they won two straight Super Bowls, So I mean it looked like it
12:37
worked. But where the Bills come into this is it's been funny but also
12:43
like I've always half joked when I said this, but ever since thirteen seconds,
12:48
the Bills have been trying to do everything that the Chiefs have done to
12:52
get to that point where they don't have where they are not on the opposite
12:56
side on the losing side of thirteen seconds. Again, you go draft dal
13:00
Kink who all the comps before the season was Travis Kelcey. He was a
13:05
Kelsey clone. I think under Ken Dorsey, which we're going to get into
13:07
later, they tried to become this uber efficient and buzz salt underneath. But
13:13
then it flipped mid season by firing Dorsey and going to Joe Brady. But
13:18
they're like, look we have a souped up Ostrich at quarterback. Let's just
13:24
beat the crap out of teams in the run game and then use our guys
13:28
underneath, and that'll bring those safeties up. So when I say the Bills
13:35
caseyification, I mean instead of trying to be this super explosive deep ball noball
13:43
offense, they're gonna try and matriculate their way down the field. They're gonna
13:48
try and go for those We're gonna If you're gonna give us those six yards
13:50
in the run game, we're gonna take them. I always think about this
13:54
quote because it's very funny in hindsight, but Brandon Dally always said, if
14:00
we're fine giving up five yard run runs as long as we a'll give up
14:03
forty yard passes, And then his last season as coach, he gave up
14:07
both five yard runs and forty yard passes. Because as much as you get
14:13
hit in the run game, you're gonna have to bring a safety game,
14:16
especially with how light you're playing. So that's where I think the Bills want
14:20
to exist in twenty twenty four, and some of their personnel decisions have kind
14:24
of given us keys into that decision. It's so funny, man, I'm
14:31
like so high for this conversation and that you speaking like, I don't know,
14:35
I didn't know where to start like with my points. And I also
14:39
think it's funny too because you first reference like twenty eighteen and McVeigh and I've
14:45
got significant coverage trends and they're changes from twenty eighteen to now. I want
14:50
to start with the whole notion of you know, those five man fronts are
14:54
those non even fronts versus those zone concepts, and for to kind of put
14:58
it in perspect for folks, just think of Sean mcgranted, Todd Gurley was
15:05
banged up, and I think that was a significant part of why that Super
15:07
Bowl turned out the way it did. But think of that Rams Patriots super
15:11
Bowl and what that Rams offense was. They are the epitome, like JP
15:16
was saying, of that wide zone, that rushing type of attack. And
15:20
Bill Belichick and the Patriots came out. They didn't even come out and do
15:22
like a five down front. They were playing like a six to one.
15:24
There was six down on the line and they were you're not running zone like
15:30
you're not doing it. And then obviously, like they went from a coverage
15:33
perspective, they paired that with like single high stuff and like buzzing to safety
15:37
down and then had some quarters pieces and it helps when you've got like Stefan
15:41
Gilmour on a side and you can lock something down. And then again Todd
15:43
Gurley being significantly banged up. But that's what the Patriots did was basically just
15:50
like gap out the entire front. So the Rams had a problem getting to
15:54
the edge with the wide zone and or just climbing in general, there was
15:56
a body in every gap. Things were muddy, there was nowhere for dudes
16:00
to go. And then again you pair it with guys like Kyle van Noy
16:03
and down to high Tower and their ability to just physically demolish you. And
16:08
that started kind of that trend of okay, like we can use these fronts.
16:12
And then you got a little bit evolution. You know, you mentioned
16:15
Brandon Staley, but Staley kind of with that Rams team towards the end before
16:19
he went to the Chargers, not I don't want to say championing, but
16:22
kind of being the poster child for the tight front and being like, hey,
16:26
we can just use like a four eye a nose and a four e
16:30
and by cover in the center and using these two four eyes, we can
16:33
string things out as much as we can, and we can force those zone
16:37
teams to the outside and we can string things out and yeah, we can
16:40
try, and we'll live with you know, four and five yards of carry
16:41
and force things to our linebackers, our safeties fitting from depth, and we
16:45
can still have you know, we might not have the numbers advantage in the
16:48
box, but we won't get killed because we can string things out and be
16:52
okay. And then eventually that kind of fell apart and they got bullying teams
16:56
like ool, we're just gonna run, Like yeah, trap and power and
16:57
like GG counter and bash and like all these all these things against you.
17:02
And well, I like this comment from Charles says pass to score and run
17:04
to win. And there's so much in this conversation, and I'm going to
17:11
I'm gonna change the banner here. You know, you mentioned twenty eighteen,
17:15
and that's where I want to start to getting some of these coverage trends because
17:17
these numbers are significant. So since twenty eighteen, I'm going to give you
17:21
the coverage trends for single high coverages and two high coverages. This is single
17:26
high from twenty eighteen to now, sixty three percent, sixty percent fifty nine
17:33
percent, fifty seven percent, fifty five percent, fifty three percent from so
17:38
in twenty eighteen, single high coverage juices rate was at sixty three percent last
17:42
season fifty three percent, a ten percentage point drop, which is huge.
17:48
You can do why, yes, you can tell when Kyle Shanahan started figuring
17:52
out how to beat he's covered threeteens, he purposely went to Atlanta with Dan
17:56
Quayn to figure out how to break that defense. You can tell as Cover
18:02
three started to dwindle and as the Shanahan acolytes started to pop up more around
18:08
the NFL, that those those things correlate absolutely. And then speaking of a
18:15
correlation, like we look at the other side and split safety coverages again from
18:18
twenty eighteen to last year in twenty twenty three, thirty four percent, thirty
18:22
five percent, thirty six percent, thirty nine percent, forty one percent,
18:27
forty two percent, So an eight percentage point increase in single in split safety
18:32
coverages from twenty eighteen to this past year and a ten percentage point drop in
18:37
single high coverages to this past year. And that puts it into perspective,
18:40
which is a conversation piece that like you know, you mentioned. I think
18:42
a lot of even casual fans now are onto it. This whole idea of
18:47
okay, two high coverage structures, put a cap on everything, keep everything
18:51
in front of you, limit explosives. For Bills fans, it was ironically
18:56
like Leslie Fraser was a defensive mind kind at the forefront of this, and
19:00
it's easy when you have safeties that can disguise coverage. You don't wink with
19:03
nudge nudge like Jordan Poyer and micah Ide. But this whole idea of like,
19:06
hey, we're gonna limit explosives, and the Bills were one of the
19:08
best teams at doing that year in and year out under Frazer. And the
19:11
goal was we're gonna make you go on twelve thirteen, fourteen play drives,
19:17
and we think at some point you're gonna have a holding penalty or you're gonna
19:21
make you're gonna turn the ball over, somebody's gonna blow a block, and
19:23
we can get you in second and long or third and long and then we
19:26
can get you off the field. This idea that you just cannot continue to
19:30
nickel and diamond down the field efficiently, but then to your point in those
19:34
bigger games, the Chiefs are like, okay, well Nickel and Dimue,
19:37
and then the Bengals were like, okay, well just Nickel and dam you
19:41
and Joe Burrow and that Divisional round was like cool, I'm just gonna throw
19:45
five yard routes all day and there's oodles and to put that into perspective as
19:48
well, to open up old wounds, like you said, you know,
19:52
you hit those routes underneath, but there's so much space because defenses are put
19:55
in the cap for Bills fans, think of that Bill's Bengals playoff game of
19:59
the Divisional Round where he's dumping it down to Mixin or Tyler Boyd and you're
20:03
watching it on broadcast and there's no one in the frame because everybody's dropping so
20:07
deep, even like they're they're they're playing cover two at times, but they're
20:11
not even getting physical with the Cloud corner. They're just still having him sync
20:14
and it's just like, Okay, I'm gonna dump it down three yards past
20:17
the line, and Joe Mixon is gonna have a game at twelve because there's
20:18
no one there. And then you factor in the run game and all these
20:22
pieces and all these switches. I want to start with that run game piece
20:26
like the run game and or heavier personnel plus formations and alignments as that natural
20:33
swing of the pendulum to answer those especially if we break it down and unpack
20:37
it into a larger defensive conversation, the too high coverages plus the prevalence of
20:42
nickel and dime plus smaller penetration based interior defensive linemen. Let's talk about that
20:52
piece, you know, because again you mentioned the run game and I think
20:53
this is a significant part of it too. It's not only those two high
20:56
structures, it's everything defenses did like, it's the fronts paired with the coverage
21:02
structure on the back end, then paired with the personnel. Because how many
21:04
teams are living in nickel and dime and have I don't know, majority of
21:08
their defensive tackles, especially their three tech three hundred three hundred five pounds.
21:12
Maybe even if you're the Bills, like the Bills have a physical heavier one
21:18
tech in Daikwon Jones and I feel like he's I need to look him up
21:22
right now where am i am? I notes Daikwon Jones is listed at three
21:30
hundred and twenty pounds, so like that's big he is. Him and eli
21:34
Aku are the two biggest defensive tackles on the team and they're like three twenty
21:40
three, twenty five And that's not like for today, that's like okay,
21:42
like that's big, not like the cyclical nature of like football, Like a
21:47
three hundred and twenty pound like that's your that's your like enforcer, that's your
21:51
dude that's gonna like take on double teams and like work against the run like
21:55
and Daikwon And when you look at Daikwon Jones, he's physical and he's great,
21:59
but he's not like this huge monster of a man like like Vitaveo or
22:02
like think of the old days of like Casey Hampton and like Gilbert Brown for
22:06
the Packers and these dudes that were just monsters inside. Granted, different fronts
22:10
and all that. But so let's talk about that. Let's unpack it.
22:12
The run game as an answer to these two high coverage structures, nickel dime
22:18
defense is smaller penetration based into your defensive linement, but also factoring in if
22:22
you want heavier personnel, formation alignments, all that kind of stuff. You
22:26
know, as why you think that answer is coming around for teams and how
22:29
the Bills factor into that. So I think it all comes together, especially
22:33
when you talk about the structure of defenses combined with the personnel. So we
22:40
talked a lot about the Penny front five to one defenses, those those five
22:45
man fronts. Those edge players are playing a wide nine to make sure you
22:48
seal off the edge on wide zone first of all. Second of all,
22:52
those guys are maybe like right now, like maybe two thirty to two fifty.
22:56
You don't find a lot of I hate using them as an example,
23:02
like Simeon Rice and walking around. Davon Hurst ain't walking around well, I
23:07
was thinking in my head, I was like Javon Hurst, like, I
23:08
don't know why. It was just a be walking around on the edge.
23:11
You're not dropping him in coverage. But that's also a thing. You have
23:14
to back the rim with those five man fronts because you have five people on
23:18
that line, somebody has to drop in past coverage. So you can't have
23:22
a two hundred and seventy pound defensive lineman out on the edge. We're all
23:26
she's gonna end up looking like the Rams. In the playoff game against the
23:30
Lions where Michael Hoyt, who is three hundred pounds playing on the edge is
23:34
getting picked apart in coverage. That's the trade off that you have to make.
23:37
So yeah, you're getting lighter up front, but in their mind it's
23:41
okay, we can drop this guy into coverage if we want to. But
23:47
this pairs with how you play your structure in coverages because of all the quarters
23:51
coverage, you're asking your safeties to come off the roof and help fit the
23:55
run from the third level, not even second level, because you want to
23:59
get that flow in outside zone, which is what is made to stop.
24:03
You want to get flow. That's why you have five linemen up there.
24:07
They're not there to necessarily make the plays. They're there to hold up the
24:10
blockers so your linebackers can get run through, which is why linebackers are smaller
24:14
because they're flowing to the ball. Safeties are coming down flowing to the ball.
24:18
But how teams are starting to counteract that offensively is if your edge player
24:25
is two hundred and forty pounds and playing a wide nine, we're just gonna
24:27
kick him out with our guard and run counter at him and force and force
24:33
him to eat those hits. And if you're safe, he wants to come
24:36
up and make a play, go ahead and try and hit our three hundred
24:38
and thirty pound guard. I think the biggest example of this is what the
24:44
Rams have actually done going up starting from twenty eighteen to what they looked like
24:48
last year. Last year we all know Sean McVay as the wide zone Master
24:53
talked about it earlier in the show. But this past year fired Mike Lafluor
24:59
from the jet and all of a sudden they start running a bit more duo.
25:03
So yes, yes, I talk about it and eat all that in
25:07
Even before Mike Laflore was hired, Bencecronic was playing full back at two hundred
25:12
and eighteen pounds. He was just trying stuff because he knew that eventually he
25:17
was going to get beat by those five to one, those penny fronts.
25:19
He was the one to employ braymons Daley. He knew how to beat those
25:23
defenses. So you start seeing them throw more duo at teams, you start
25:29
seeing them throw more counter and even this offseason, with what their moves have
25:33
been moving Steve ivolet center, who I believe at leave Steve is like maybe
25:37
like three twenty three thirty. I have to check. But they went and
25:41
signed Jonah Jackson from Detroit, which is who is a monster in the run
25:47
game, Like, well, we've all seen Detroit. That is what that's
25:49
what they want to do. They want to get at you. Yes,
25:53
Steve Ivila is listened at six three three thirty two and it's going to be
25:56
their starting center. You know what they want to do. That's big,
26:00
that's biggest pay for Bills fans who are used to like Mitch Morrison center and
26:03
he's like three h five movement. Yes, Steve Levila's like three to third.
26:07
And that's a real three thirty. It's not like, oh, he
26:10
weighs like three fifteen and we put him at three thirty. No, he's
26:12
a real three thirty. Yeah. Like even their starting offensive line on the
26:18
interior is gonna be Jonah Jackson at three twelve, Steve Ogulet three thirty,
26:22
Kevin Dotson at three twenty one. They want to move people, They want
26:26
to get people versus. Instead of going to go around you, you're gonna
26:29
want to get at you. And that's kind of the shift in offenses and
26:33
defenses. That's the punch counter punch instead of trying to run around defenses.
26:37
Because they're playing all these bigger. They're playing bigger guys up front. They
26:41
try to go around with the wide zone now because teams are trying to flank
26:45
the edges, there's gonna run at you and swing that pendulum. It's the
26:51
pendulum swing. Like you said, where the Bills factor in. This is
26:55
really interesting because I think we got a glimpse of it with Joe Brady.
26:59
He kind of married the gap scheme with having Josh Allen as your quarterback.
27:06
I think for a large portion of Ken Dorsey's time as offensive coordinator, plus
27:12
of course Josh allen injuries, there was a little reluctance to run Josh Allen
27:18
on design runs. So I called it from Sports Info solutions from I believe
27:23
the first ten weeks of the season when Ken Dorsey was the offensive coordinator,
27:30
Josh Allen had nine design runs in ten games, which not a lot in
27:36
ten games. Joe Brady over seven games after he got hired, Josh Allen
27:40
had twenty design runs. You can tell like, we're gonna use this guy
27:45
as a threat in the run. You want to play those light boxes again.
27:48
Think about the Cowboys game. The Cowboys play really light. They played
27:53
a two hundred and five pound safety at linebacker. If you go ahead and
27:56
do that, if you want to, we will run tackled art at you
28:00
for the entire game and make that lineback, make that safety come up and
28:04
try and fit. Literally, the entire game is just dark, dark and
28:10
over duo calendar. That's Deon Dawkins. Was Deon Dawkins, That Spencer Brown
28:15
played the games of their lives and it's just pulling and hitting this two hundred
28:19
and five pound linebacker. So that's where I think the Bills are gonna shift
28:25
more offensively, is combining the physicality of Josh Allen running the ball and that
28:32
threat of him. It's forcing teams to bring up a guy or it's forcing
28:37
teams to play bigger and that's something else. So I think Joe Brady did
28:41
a lot really well with the run game. Is he got bigger up front,
28:45
he would bringing Quinton Moore, So they play a lot of Dawson,
28:48
Knox and Kink together. Kink is not a super duper blocker, but he
28:52
will give effort. He's functional, Yeah, he he tries as a blocker
28:59
with something you cannot say about a lot of tight ends who are receivers first,
29:03
and that's a good piece, Like that's not even like a passive aggressive
29:06
jab like blocking is like seventy percent effort. So with how good of a
29:10
receiver he is, the fact that he tries as hard as he does as
29:14
a blocker, like and that's not like, oh he tries participation trophy.
29:18
No, that's like a legitimate compliment because to your point, like it's effective.
29:22
Yeah, So bringing in a Knox with him, bringing Quinton Morris having
29:25
an extra tackle on the field, they're gonna try and they were gonna try
29:29
and get bigger and force teams to get bigger with them. They were going
29:33
to match them. You know. That's that's the push and pull that we
29:37
see offensively. We see it a lot these days, is we're gonna try
29:41
and get bigger and see how you defend us. The Chiefs force teams to
29:47
get bigger. They would just add tight ends onto the field. They just
29:49
keep adding them to play with Travis kelcey and if you want to play light,
29:53
we will run the ball at you. That is again Travis kelce tries
29:59
as a blocker his effort. But you also have Noah Gray and Blake Bell
30:04
who are very good blockers. They were going to try and get at you
30:07
in the run game. But if you try and get bigger and try and
30:11
match the numbers, wise they just throw the ball and your linebacker, who
30:15
is only on the field to fit the run, is end up having the
30:18
guard Travis Kelce, which is not a very good Like that's not something you
30:22
want to put your linebacker out there to do. So where I think the
30:25
Bills factor into this is they're going to want to try and get bigger and
30:30
get more physical and use not necessarily just run Josh Allen fifteen times a game.
30:36
That's not what I'm saying at all, but use his threat, just
30:40
have him pull pull a zone read ones or run that they run that tackle
30:47
dart with Josh Allen as the designed runner where it's like we're not we're not
30:52
trying to fake anything, we're not zone reading this. He's taking this ball,
30:55
he's running forward. Do that and just have that threat of oh,
31:00
we can pull this out whenever we want to, and that'll force teams to
31:03
account for him in the run game. And then you start to get into
31:07
those passing plays, or you can run that QB you know that GT counter
31:11
with that backaway action that QB GT counter bash, but instead of having Allie
31:15
keep it, you give it to James Cook like they did under Dorsey in
31:18
the playoff run. And then Jame, now you got like an edge defender
31:23
who's doing that surf technique, but he comes down a little too much to
31:26
respect Allen. And now Cook is out that front door because of how fast
31:30
he is, and you have a problem. And then if you pair it
31:33
right with I don't know, Mac Collins and Keon Coleman as your blockers on
31:38
that front side against regular on average what two hundred pound corners, one of
31:45
them is probably a slock corner, so you're looking at one hundred and ninety
31:48
five maybe and maybe the bigger body of chance there's a bigger body corner on
31:51
the outside of two five. They both pail in comparison size, frame,
31:53
weight, and length to Hollins and Keon Coleman. And that's where things start
31:56
to get really interesting. Like, oh man, this converse. I'm like
32:00
all over my notes, I'm so excited with like all these conversation pieces.
32:04
I first, I love that you mentioned the rams because so much the Rams
32:08
are such an everybody like tied to that Shanahan tree, like McVeigh and the
32:13
little flurs and like everybody and how they've like adapted and molded and the RAMS
32:17
offense last year you nailed in. It was one of my big points,
32:21
like them getting the duo, the creative ways they got into duo, like
32:24
using fast motion and pairing it with their condensed formations and alignments. But then
32:30
also again their ability to run that ball downhill, which is what a duo
32:35
run is. That is a people moving, vertical displacement type run. That
32:37
is an at you type run where we're bigger than you were, more physical,
32:40
we can get at you. Who are their wide receivers Puka Nakua and
32:45
Cooper Cup tremendous pass catchers, very good run blockers, good size, good
32:52
physicality, good effort, And that's been a staple in that RAMS system since
32:55
mcveigh's been there with Cup, but who was there before Nikoola, Robert Woods,
33:00
tremendous blocker. They've got these receivers that are able to insert. And
33:07
you want him to dig out a safety cool, you want him to fit
33:08
up on a linebacker cool. You want to I don't know, you want
33:12
to run some toss on the outside and you want him to wash down an
33:15
edge. Cool, they can do that, like you've got those guys.
33:19
Similar to with with with I'm getting ahead of myself with the Detroit Lions.
33:22
Great run game last year for the Detroit Lions just for running back carries only,
33:28
they were second in EPA per attempt. The Rams, for reference,
33:30
were six in EPA per attempt per SIS, but the Lions second in EPA
33:37
per attempt with running back carries. Again, Jared Goff not a plus one
33:39
in the run game, not this threat with the ball in his hands.
33:43
But you think of the Lions and you're like, oh, ton of eleven
33:45
personnel. I think they're add like a ninety five non Oh actually I think
33:49
ninety five percent or no, that was the Rams ninety five percent eleven personnel,
33:52
right, let me go. Detroit had a sixty four percent eleven personnel
33:57
usage rate last year he had. The Rams were at ninety five percent,
33:59
which is ray. But again, the Rams can live in that world and
34:02
run the ball downhill because they've got Pooka and they've got Cooper Cup and they've
34:07
got Tyler Higbee and these dudes that have these body types and frames paired with
34:10
athleticism. And then even the Lions. People think, oh you will again,
34:15
like and I get the sectionist, but I'm on Ross Saint Brown.
34:16
And then what Sam Laporta did last year their wide receiver with the second most
34:22
snaps last year for the Detroit Lions, only about one hundred and eighty less
34:25
than I'm on Ross Saint Brown was Josh Reynolds. Behind Josh Reynolds was Donovan
34:30
People's Jones, bigger bodied, power slot type options. But dudes who can
34:36
block on the perimeter against outside corners or come down in condensed formations and alignments
34:42
and get tight and dig out a safety fit up on a linebacker insert That's
34:46
such a game changer from a math perspective, just from a personnel standpoint alone,
34:52
Like forget about alignment for a quick second. You're just talking about personnel.
34:57
If you're going with eleven, if you're the Rams or the Lions,
35:00
for example, teams are going to match that with nickel because you have to
35:02
because you have a legitimate threat in the past. But then that nickel defender
35:07
is outside against Cooper Cup or Josh Reynolds or Nikua or if he gets matched
35:12
up on the tight end, and depending on what you want to do,
35:14
then you also factor in, especially from a Rams perspective, but the Lions
35:19
do this as well, those condensed formations, which really can put defenses into
35:23
a buying Further, those condensed formations allows teams to get to more in the
35:29
run game because you have more bodies attached or near to the line of scrimmage,
35:34
so you can add gaps, which is huge because again we're still running
35:37
zone, but we're trying to get more gap because we're trying to take advantage
35:40
of those smaller fronts or those alignments in fronts that we're seeing. So instead
35:45
of trying to get wide, we're going at you either with double teams downhill,
35:50
with inside zone or with duo or legitimate you know, we're running we're
35:53
running power or running GT counter, or we're running trap or we're running wham,
35:59
and being able to do that out of those condensed formations again adds to
36:04
it. Because you've got more bodies towards the line of scrimmage, you could
36:07
get to more in the run game. And then those teams with bigger,
36:09
bodied wide receivers like the Rams and Lions have the added threat of blocking on
36:14
the perimeter or like we talked about, getting fancy and having them get involved
36:19
in the box versus a second level defender or a safety or an edge and
36:22
again like you can you can literally run, Like why insert with them because
36:25
of what they can do. And then you talk about the Bills and look
36:30
at what they have now in that wide receiver room with Kean Coleman and Matt
36:32
Collins. And if you're looking at it from a pass catching perspective, Dawson,
36:37
Knox In, Dalton kin k and Sekre can even block a little bit,
36:39
but they really swung towards more of that bigger body notion. And I
36:45
think it presents the idea of hey, we're gonna beat teams up. We're
36:52
gonna beat them up physically. And it could be added with that, you
36:55
know, plus one in the run game of Josh Allen, but it doesn't
36:58
necessarily even have to be like you said, James Cook, And I really
37:00
like the addition of Ray Davis this past year, and then like Ty Johnson
37:04
for what he's worth as an RB two or an RB three, Like the
37:07
ability to get physical and get downhill with pace is something the Bills are gonna
37:12
be able to do. They're gonna be able to create that displacement, but
37:15
then also have an advantage schematically and or from an alignment perspective potentially because you've
37:21
got guys like Kinkaid and Knox and Hollands and Kean Coleman, who I don't
37:25
think Keon Coleman is the sexiest right now and Matt Collins isn't either. But
37:30
the Bills had trouble versus Man coverage last year. They had issues separating consistently
37:36
versus Man, and I think a lot of what we thought, and I'm
37:39
in that boat as well, was like, Okay, you need guys either
37:43
with true speed or you need dudes who can route people up. So if
37:46
you're looking in round one, it was like, okay, give me Brian
37:50
Thomas, give me a d Mitchell or you know what, hey, gimme
37:52
Lad McConkey, somebody who can route anyone up at any time and create separation.
37:57
And instead the Bills lean more into that power or forward Sean Kemp type
38:00
of world with Keyon Coleman, and I think it's because of that physicality and
38:05
the commitment to the run we're gonna see in twenty twenty four. But I
38:08
also think it's because they're gonna pair it with condensed formations, which can help
38:13
in the run game like we talked about, but condensed formations can also help
38:16
you beat man coverage by you have you having your pass catchers run crossers or
38:21
switch releases versus defenders that may be bunched up or near the line of scrimmage,
38:25
and the close proximity of those pass catchers can also help yield open targets
38:30
quicker. So you can play tight in those condensed looks and play power football
38:35
and play downhill and create displacement, or you can play tight in condensed formations
38:40
and still throw the ball. And if you have those bigger bodied athletic pass
38:45
catchers like Knots, like Kincaid, like Holman, like mccollins, who can
38:50
also function as blockers, then you can ask a lot of questions to the
38:53
defense pre snap that they have to provide answers for post snap, and not
38:59
every defense will have an answer to those questions. And I think that's where
39:02
it starts to go into, Like I think you're going to see more in
39:05
the run game, and the Bills already had a very strong run game last
39:07
year. They were top ten easily in EPA per attemp from a running back
39:10
perspective, taking out Josh Allen carries and scrambles and all that stuff. They
39:15
were consistently one of the best teams on the ground last year. I think
39:17
they lean in more to it this year and then pair that with alignments in
39:22
personnel that have a physical, bigger bodied advantage. And maybe again you could
39:29
just be regular spread and do it, but I think it pairs well with
39:31
condensed formations, gives you that advantage in the run, but also gives you
39:36
the opportunity to beat man, and then if you pair it with play action,
39:39
you can start to generate explosives. And I think that's where I think
39:43
the Bills really start to move towards more of that McVey esque ish style where
39:49
it's condensed formations downhill, generate explosives off of that, and then you have
39:53
the mobility of Allen as a runner or in terms of bootlegs and what you
39:58
can do off the pass, and it starts to get real the creative all
40:00
stemming from that power downhill mash you in the face type of mentality, and
40:06
I think another interesting team to watch and kind of study when you look at
40:12
how this offensive shift has come about and it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I
40:15
think it's very interesting, especially with twenty twenty and Tom Brady. They were
40:21
able to get teams out of two high personnel because they weren't very they were
40:24
pretty simple as a run in terms of run concepts. They had run counter,
40:29
they'd run power, they'd run split zone. They could do that because
40:31
the receiver that had some of the most snaps on the field was Chris Godwin,
40:36
who is a freaking awesome blocker. He also had robern Kowski, who
40:39
was not the greatest receiver at that point in time, but he was six
40:43
seven to two seventy. That's like having another Enlindment out there as a as
40:46
a tight end. So they were able to get at you in the run
40:50
game and then get at you in the passing game because if your linebackers want
40:53
to come up, we all know it. Brady takes the handoff, takes
40:58
one step and throws a dart over the middle. I see it in my
41:00
nightmares. I close my eyes and see it right now. It's like he
41:04
doesn't even turn his back to the defense. He just knows it's gonna be
41:07
there. Yeah, yeah, he just he could throw with his eyes closed
41:08
because he knows it's going to be there. Yeah. So that's another interesting
41:12
way of trying to get at teams and too high, which is we're gonna
41:15
hit you over the head every single we're going at you. Tom Brady had
41:20
nine yards on his average up the target that year, which you don't think
41:23
about like when it comes to oh, we're gonna run the ball really really
41:28
effectively and then kind of just dumping underneath. No Brady and the Bucks were
41:31
going downfield because he also had Mike Evans. Well, I think you bring
41:35
up a really good point is the condensed splits, And something that I noticed
41:39
in watching Joe Brady and watching the Bill's offense was that is mainly how Dalton
41:45
Kincaid kind of won in those short In those condensed splits, he got a
41:51
free release. And I think in twenty twenty four Kinkaid is going to be
41:55
the tip of the spear for this passing Yay. Yes, a lot of
41:59
option routes, a lot of choice routes. He got a lot of those
42:00
in the second half of the season with Joe Brady, where he was you
42:04
know, you just run him into space. He's he's very good at finding
42:08
space. You know, like I said, he's not the most ridiculous athlete.
42:13
He's not the most he's not the biggest or tallest or fastest, but
42:15
he knows how to find space. He knows how to win against underneath the
42:20
fenders. And as many times you run those option routes, as many times
42:23
as you you talk about the McVeigh the mcveighisms of this offense. Potentially it
42:30
is Cooper Cup running the choice routes, nailing you for six seven yards,
42:35
and then they hit the dig behind you as soon as you jump up on
42:37
it. So now you're thinking about what this Bills offense can be and how
42:45
you can kind of win over the middle, which is the most valuable part
42:49
of the field. You know, that's where I think the Bills passing game
42:52
wants to win. They want to win in short areas. They want to
42:55
win with yards after the catch. It's why you go sign Curtis Samuel.
43:00
You want to get better, Uh, you want to get better after the
43:02
catch. Kean Coleman very good after the catch. I mean, the dude
43:07
was returning punts at Florida State. That's not a FIfF. At receiver Kincaid
43:13
was good after the catch. But something else I think is going to be
43:15
another calling card for this Bills offense is the verticality of the running backs in
43:22
the pass over the last stretch of the season when Joe Brady was the offensive
43:28
coordinator. Of course, you take it with a grain of salt, because
43:30
the total volume of passes went way down after Joe Brady became coordinator. But
43:37
the top two targets in terms of yards per route run under Joe Brady,
43:42
number two was Khalil Shakir and number one was James Cook. James Cook was
43:45
getting downfield in the passing game. That is something where, again and too
43:51
high, you want to get your running back downfield. You think about it
43:54
when you think about all the quarters coverage. If you had that running back
43:58
bind up to the straight for the quarters, that's the number three receiver.
44:02
That linebacker is going to have to carry that number three receiver verbal and they
44:06
started it. That's also another chief sism that they borrowed those four strong looks
44:10
and flooding those concepts. They're flooding those those zones and draining coverages, and
44:15
ironically they scored a touchdown on it on a basically four by one four strong
44:20
against the Chiefs in the regular season game where they ran that half back scene
44:23
like jet right up up the seam and like that. That's another piece that
44:28
they borrowed and added, like you continue to be able to take And I
44:30
think it was actually I don't know if it was single hot. I just
44:34
remember Mike Edwards nailing down and then Cook splitting through. But yeah, that's
44:37
another element too, right down the middle, and there was nobody there to
44:42
defend them. You think about Joe Brady at LSU, who was catching all
44:45
those of the backyard Baby made him a first round thank you. It was
44:51
getting downfield in the passing game. So I think that is where they're going
44:54
to try and win offensively. That's where they're going to try and generate explosives,
44:59
which is they're gonna try and get Cooked downfield. He's a good pass
45:04
catcher, he's good at running routes downfield. You want to get him as
45:07
your explosive guy. You sign NBS to take the top off the defense is
45:10
to kind of relieve the congestion in the middle of the field. You have
45:14
Coleman running the I think he is at his best in the five to ten
45:20
yard areas. He is a mid range player. That's a mid range receiver
45:24
where he can run those slants. He runs the digs really well. He
45:28
gets those crossers where you talked about it and condemnsed splits and tight splits.
45:32
You get him running across the field away from somebody. I mean we saw
45:36
it in the Gauntlet, we saw it on tape. He is a very
45:38
good game speed receiver, so that's where you want to get him running away
45:43
from people. Horizontally, King Kid is kind of running those in between those
45:47
option routes, and I think Curtis Samuel factors in this by being kind of
45:51
the yards after the catch guy. I think Shakir is actually gonna be used
45:55
a bit more as a vertical option because again under Joe Brady he had to
45:59
say in most yards per route run. I think that is going to be
46:01
something that he is going to he is going to be able to work on,
46:06
and he's gonna be able to develop under Joe Brady. With another full
46:09
season as Joe Brady a coordinator, I think that's where they're gonna try and
46:14
win. It's not going to be as much. We're not gonna completely achievese
46:17
thefy it and you're gonna see everybody running five yard stop routes or they're gonna
46:22
rpo everything. But I think they're gonna try and get at you in the
46:25
run game, and then they're gonna try and run away from you with tight
46:30
splits. They're gonna try and get running backs involved downfield, but really they
46:34
want to try and win over the most congested parts of the field, which
46:37
is the middle area. I like that, and I'm in lockstep with you.
46:43
I'm also looking up what I'm looking up because there's another ridiculous like Kohalil
46:51
Shakir stat that was just so I mean, take the whole season, but
46:54
just factoring in what year am I in. I'm gonna find later because I'm
47:00
out of control. I think that pairs really well like that middle of the
47:05
field attacking style. And again, like you've got you've got Kincaid, who
47:08
he talked about like his he we say he operates with a fluid technicality,
47:14
and you pair that with his feel for coverage and his understanding of leverage and
47:19
how he knows like how to position. He's so good transitioning from pass catcher
47:24
to runner. He's like the poster child for that. You know you run
47:29
that sit route over the ball, and as he catches it, he makes
47:31
that drop step with his foot, so as he catches it, he's catching
47:35
it and tucking it. He's already getting up field, or his ability to
47:38
catch it, and say he runs like a little arrow route, a little
47:42
flat route, and as he catches it, he knows that apex defender is
47:47
is haul an ass to try and get him on the flat, so as
47:51
he catches it, he shifts his body so as he catches it he can
47:53
start already going back and go back inside. So as that defender is coming
47:58
this way, he's coming back inside. He's getting up field. Like his
48:00
feel for that is so strong. Shakira, I think will get some verticality.
48:05
I also think Shaki I hate saying this because I don't want to put
48:07
that comp out there, but I think Shakira occupies some of the Cole Beasley
48:12
esque essence of this offense. From a receiver perspective, I really think Cole
48:16
Beasley will end up becoming Dalton Kinkaid, like that slot guy who just runs,
48:21
like you said, those choice routes on the inside and it's just pure
48:23
recognizing coverage. If they do a I do this. If they do b
48:27
I do that. Oh if they did this, cool, I'm gonna sit
48:29
down for five yards, get foward for seven or eight, and now it's
48:31
second down in two or whatever. The help I think Shakiro function in that
48:36
way. I think Samuel, to your point, gives you that speed to
48:40
now run away from dudes on those deep overs, in addition to giving you
48:44
some of the fun gadgetry pieces like let's put him in the backfield. Let's
48:47
get creative and go you know, four strong or four by one, or
48:51
let's go quads, and then we can send Samuel in motion. And now
48:53
it's another element of Okay, we're gonna give them the ball on the jet
48:57
sweep because now if you go with a legit like quads, that box is
49:01
super light and now they're but you know what, it might not even be
49:05
crazy like because the defense might be like, no, this is a ploy
49:07
to run Josh Allen on a draw, or they're gonna run power with Allen.
49:10
We got to keep a dude in the box. And now you're just
49:14
running simple wide receiver screens, or you can just you know, go regular
49:16
like past concepts and flood coverages or again, you send Curtis Samuel, you
49:21
send some piece. I completely forgot about MVS, which is nuts because we
49:24
did a whole film breakdown on him last week. But he's another one in
49:28
that mold of Keon Coleman, Mac Collins, MVS. MVS is nice because
49:32
he has legitimate verticality, like he can take the top off the defense,
49:37
but he also can function as that power slot or that big body threat on
49:42
the perimeter. So even if you are in like think about it, if
49:45
you're in eleven personnel and so eleven personnel for those who don't know you know,
49:51
you're one running back, you're one tight end. That means you have
49:52
three wide receivers if you're in eleven personnel, but your three wide receivers are
49:57
Keon Coleman, Mac Collins and MVS. There's passing concepts exactly. You got
50:02
three power forwards on the field who defenses have to account for from a passing
50:07
perspective because there's still wide receivers and can still they still present a threat.
50:12
MBS is gonna present a threat vertically key On Coleman, that big body,
50:15
contested catch style with athleticism after the catch. But also all three of those
50:21
dudes are going to be a factor as rum blockers. And then if the
50:23
one tight end on the field is Dalton Kincaid, now again it's like,
50:28
Okay, who are we answering for in coverage? Do we have Do we
50:34
have a nickel who can cover Dalton kN kd? Do we have a nickel
50:37
who can whoever the hell you want to put in the slot? From the
50:38
receiver perspective, do we have a nickel who can box with key On Coleman
50:43
or MBS? And then if they don't, you run downhill or maybe you
50:46
don't even go from like a spread perspective with that eleven, you just go
50:51
into trips and go with a condensed look, maybe like trips to the left
50:54
and you're going like nub tight end and you go with that nub tight end
50:58
in the boundary and then you can run to that number tight end side or
51:00
again create the space with the condensed look On the other It forces the defense
51:05
to have to answer all these questions, and I think that that's where a
51:09
lot of the conversation comes in because of again I'm not saying this is the
51:15
sexiest past catching group on paper, because I really don't think it is I
51:17
think, especially from a casual fan perspective, got people who aren't into the
51:23
schematics and the bones of it. I think if you look at the Bills
51:27
wide receiver room, there's a good chance, like most fans would take their
51:30
team's wide receivers over the Bills wide receiver room. Like it's not the sexiest,
51:34
it's not the flashiest on paper, but I think where they can succeed
51:38
is in the schematics of it and having an advantage in legitimate like x's and
51:42
o's because the body frames and skill sets that are present in the wide receiver
51:47
room, paired with the tight ends just creates matchup problems for defenses in a
51:52
variety of ways. And that's where a lot of the best offenses are starting
51:57
to succeed because of the matchups they can create in the past and the run.
52:00
So you take the final four teams from twenty twenty three, the Niners,
52:05
the Lions, the Ravens, and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are a
52:07
bit of an outlier, but they are for everything because it's like Reid and
52:09
Mahomes and Spags and all the crap that they do. But the Niners DVOA
52:15
first and dv away first in the past, second in the run, the
52:19
Lions fifth and DVAY seventh in the past, fourth in the run, the
52:22
Ravens fourth and DVOA fifth in the past first in the run, the Chiefs
52:28
eighth and DVA eighth in the past, seventeenth in the run. But they
52:32
had those matchup pieces that can help them in the run. But you talk
52:36
about those groupings and their usage rates for each team. The forty nine ers,
52:40
they had a thirty nine percent eleven personnel usage rate last year, which
52:45
was thirty first. What they did they had the advantage with Kyle Yuschek,
52:50
who is a huge matchup nightmare for a lot of teams. The best mismatch
52:54
creator is usually your tight end, especially if you have like a true dual
52:58
threat type of tight end. Go back to those Patriot teams with Gronk and
53:01
Aaron Hernandez. You had two tight ends who could both pass or who could
53:06
function as receivers and also run block. So how do you choose to match
53:09
that? The Niners thirty six percent twenty one personnel usage rate, eleven percent
53:15
twenty two personnel usage rate. Sixty percent of their snaps came with either two
53:21
tight ends or two running backs on the field, and then again the Lions
53:25
after that, so fourth in terms of rushing DVOA, second in terms of
53:31
EPA per attempt on the ground for their running backs, the Niners, for
53:35
reference, fourth in terms of EPA per attempt on the ground for their running
53:38
backs. The Lions, like we talked about sixty four percent eleven personnel usage
53:43
rate, but again that eleven personnel has Josh Reynolds and bigger body wide receivers.
53:46
But they also paired that with a twenty two percent twelve personnel rate,
53:51
a five percent thirteen personnel rate, and a five percent twenty one personnel rate.
53:55
And then the Ravens fifth in EPA per attempt for running backs on the
54:00
ground, first in rushing dv away forty seven percent eleven personnel usage rate,
54:07
which was twenty ninth. Forty eight percent of their snaps came with either two
54:10
tight ends or two running backs. But again they've got a million tight ends,
54:15
and that's with that's with Mark Andrews being hurt for a bunch of the
54:17
year, twenty six percent twenty one personnel, ten percent twenty twelve percent twelve
54:22
personnel. And then the Chiefs tenth in EPA per attempt for running back carries
54:30
sixty three percent eleven personnel usage rate, but again, who's that eleven personnel
54:35
coming? With guys like mvs and Justin Watson, even Rashid Rice to a
54:38
degree, but then having Kelsey on their muddies it. And then go to
54:43
twelve personnel, where they had a twenty eight percent twelve personnel usage rate,
54:45
which was fourth, a seven percent thirteen personnel usage rate which was also fourth.
54:52
And I didn't get into the stats for or the rankings for everyone else,
54:55
but like the Niners, twenty one personnel second most, twenty two is
55:00
first, the Ravens third, and twenty one personnel first and twenty It's all
55:05
about creating those mismatches for defenses, and you just got to lean in whatever
55:09
skill sets you have. The Ravens have a bunch of dual threat tight ends,
55:13
and they also have pat Riccard and then they have Lamar Jackson. The
55:15
Niners, for as much as people talk about Shanahan, and then like them
55:21
adding McCaffrey and Deebo and Ayuk, which is fair. The mismatch straws that
55:25
serve the drink for the Niners are George Kittle and then big time with Kyle
55:30
yus Check. Because you've got this fullback who allows you to run traditional run
55:34
concepts with zone and gap, but also he can get downfield on rail routes
55:39
or wheels. They can line him up and split him out wide, and
55:43
he can run hitches or run overs. You can bring him in motion.
55:46
They use him in that surge motion for a lot of those Zoro runs and
55:50
all the things that they do. All of these top offenses are now starting
55:53
to get into the mismatch world. So it's not just this is a really
55:58
good football player and we have really good skidic design. You have that schematic
56:01
design that's taking advantage of the mismatches. And I think that's where this Bill's
56:07
offense has to succeed and why so much is going to be on Joe Brady's
56:10
plate because I do think there is the opportunity for mismatches to be created and
56:15
taken advantage of with the tight ends and receivers on this roster. Even though
56:21
neither room is holistically dominant. I don't think anybody's looking at the Bills tight
56:24
end or wide receiver room outside and being like man like they're gonna eat us
56:30
up in this game. But if Joe Brady pushes the right buttons and pulls
56:32
the right levers, he's got all these mismatch creators and mismass potential there.
56:37
And when you pair it with how the great and top offense in the NFL
56:40
are leaning, that's where I think it starts to get really interesting. And
56:44
then again, of course you're pairing those personnel groupings with formations and with alignments
56:49
and stuff, and then it starts to get really hectic for what defenses have
56:52
to account for. Yeah, and I think especially with the Lions, there's
56:55
a reason that they extended that tender to brock Right. You might I think
56:59
about it into but he absolutely kicks ass in the run game. Like he
57:04
is able to get downfield, he's able to move people in the in the
57:08
run game. And I think that's something where I think the Bills, like
57:12
you said, they might not have the sexiest receiver corps or skill position group
57:16
corps, but they are all complimentary. They all have layers to it.
57:21
I think the biggest thing that offenses like should avoid is trying to get a
57:25
bunch of the same guys like the Jaguar struggled with this last year. They
57:30
had a bunch of guys who won in the in between. What you're trying
57:34
to win basketball games with eleven people who shooting the mid ring. That creates
57:39
a congested offense who don't want to you don't want to self inflict those errors
57:45
offensively. And I think the Bills have learned from that and instead of having
57:50
a bunch of guys who can go downfield and hurry, you got nbs who
57:52
can do that. But that's that's what he does. That is his specialty.
57:57
Yeah, Kulk who can do that, but also does sort of the
58:00
short in between stuff. Jan Coleman is an in between route runner. He's
58:05
in between route runner uh don kin kin Man of a thousand option routes.
58:09
That is, that's his name. He is going to be the underneath.
58:13
He is going to be the choice route person that the Bills are gonna run
58:16
on all those and if you if you get him in the right situation,
58:20
like he can get vertical if you have a safety or aligned I mean,
58:23
we saw it. I love Kyle Dugger, but he took advantage of Dugger
58:27
in those matchups because the Pats were like, cool, We're gonna put Dugger
58:29
on Kincaid, and it was like, no, he doesn't have the speed
58:31
to roll with Kinkaid, So he can present that verticality. And again you
58:35
can get him either with alignment or with motion and stuff. You can get
58:39
him in those matchups where you can take advantage of his athleticism and speed,
58:45
not because he's a burner, but because he's that much faster than whoever the
58:47
bigger body dude is. That's covering it. Yeah, and now you think
58:52
about what the Chiefs were able to do to opposing defenses by simply just adding
58:57
tight ends onto the field. Yes, just keep on a tight end onto
59:00
the field. You want to treat our twelve personnel like Nickel, We'll just
59:04
put another tight end out there. You're just gonna go thirteen and then we're
59:06
gonna run down your throat. Go ahead, you want to treat Nickel,
59:08
Now go for it. I think of a play last year in the divisional
59:13
game against the Bills where the Chiefs were thirteen personnel and they run scissors with
59:17
Noah Gray and Travis Kelce and it puts poor old aj Klin in the worst
59:23
bind ever and Noah Gray ends up wide open and it's something. It's things
59:28
like that where you create the matchup problems. You can either do it by,
59:32
like you said, being the Rams who have this eleven personnel on practically
59:37
all their offensive snaps, but they have receivers who can dig guys out in
59:42
the run game. You think about the Buccaneers who can dig guys out in
59:45
the run game with Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, those guys work in the
59:49
run games. Sure, you can get bigger with tight ends, you can
59:52
get bigger with fullbacks. You can play Reggie Gilliam. I think that's something
59:55
that Ken Dorsey tried to do, was get Reggie Gilliam onto the field of
1:00:00
bit More. But I think Joe Brady decided instead of Gilliam, he would
1:00:05
use an extra lineman or put Quinton Morris on the field, or you go
1:00:08
with legitimate like pony personnel, and he'd do Try Johnson and James Cook at
1:00:12
the same time. Yeah, And that's another way that you can force teams
1:00:15
into these matchup problems. The Packers did it with AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones.
1:00:20
The Cowboys did it with Zeke and Tony Pollard. You know, it's
1:00:23
it's those types of things where you have you have the personnel, and you
1:00:27
have the ability. It's just now about how to temper it. It's deciding
1:00:32
what you want to be. It's I can choose your own adventure book.
1:00:36
You know, you can choose to beat the crap out of teams in the
1:00:38
run game. But how are you gonna do it? Are you gonna put
1:00:42
a fullback on the field? Are you gonna try and live in twelve and
1:00:44
thirteen? I think that's something that the Bills try to do after drafting Kinkaid,
1:00:49
like that is there, Oh, we'll just line up in twelve personnel.
1:00:52
But they still treated their twelve personnel like Nickel. So now it's do
1:00:58
you want to do you add another time, I didn't feel do you want
1:01:00
to make at thirteen or do you instead go away from twelve personnel and just
1:01:06
get guys like Mac Collins, like Keyak Coleman and say, okay, we'll
1:01:08
just live in eleven personnel, but we'll have guys who can block their ass
1:01:12
off. So it's those types of decisions that I think are being made by
1:01:15
the Bills front office to create not necessarily a more explosive offense. I don't
1:01:22
think it'll be as explosive as bills offenses in years before, but I think
1:01:24
it'll be more sustainable. I think it's a good way to put it.
1:01:29
And yeah, I expect to see more. I don't expect to see a
1:01:32
ton of like twenty plus yard gains and these big explosives downfield, but I
1:01:37
expect to see, like, I think a lot of this Bill's offense is
1:01:39
going to generate like six to thirteen yards per play, like either in the
1:01:45
run or the pass, and then if somebody breaks a tackle, that can
1:01:47
turn into fifteen or twenty plus and you kind of go from there, and
1:01:51
that could be breaking the tackle on the pass or breaking the tackle on the
1:01:53
run. And man, when you were talking, I was just thinking about
1:01:57
like the teams that like the teams you're mentioned that go like Pony and like
1:02:00
Zeke and Pollard and Jones and Dylan, and I just think of how fair
1:02:05
unfair that forty nine ers backfield is granted, like goose Check isn't like use
1:02:08
Check's not getting carries, but like him and McCaffrey in the backfield, like
1:02:13
you know, it's a legitimate threat for use Check to be the lead blocker
1:02:15
for McCaffrey, or like they could shift and they both could go to the
1:02:21
slot, or they both could go out wide and run routes, or like
1:02:22
they could run routes in the backfield. Like again, it's all mismatch generation.
1:02:27
It's all mismatch creation. Same thing, you know, going back to
1:02:30
your plus one and the thought with the Eagles, Like the Eagles offense is
1:02:35
so mismatch based because of Hurts with his legs, but then his arm,
1:02:37
because you have to account for their running background game, their Jalen Hurts ground
1:02:43
game. And then they got aj Brown and they've got DeVonta Smith and they've
1:02:46
got Dallas Goddard and it's like, okay, can can we commit bodies to
1:02:51
the run because can we cover aj Brown one on one? Now? We
1:02:53
got to keep somebody over the top. Okay, Like you can't stop the
1:02:58
run. You can't stop up their regular run game, the Jalen Hurts run
1:03:01
game. Now it's all these it's a mismatch creator. From a numbers perspective,
1:03:06
you create a mismatch with the math. The Bills I think could do
1:03:09
that with Josh Allen is the plus one, but I think their mismatch creation
1:03:13
can come in the form of the Chiefs, who, yeah, they're in
1:03:16
twelve or thirteen personnel, but one of those tight ends is Travis Kelce.
1:03:21
So it changes how you match schematically, and then what the Niners can do,
1:03:23
what the Ravens can do, what the Lions can do. You take
1:03:27
all these pieces, even hell, even if they do go twelve. If
1:03:30
you're going twelve and it's again Knox and Kincaid, and then the two receivers
1:03:36
are Coleman and MBS or Coleman and mac collins, like you could really just
1:03:39
you could take one of them and just hip them off, like have Knox
1:03:44
or Kincaid whichever one you want as your why, hip the other one off
1:03:47
of him and then hit one of those big bodied receivers off of that and
1:03:51
then run the ball down someone's throat or you go with that under center play
1:03:55
action. And again, because it's coming from a condensed look, you can
1:03:59
create you can create picks, you can create rubs, and it just presents
1:04:03
so much fun schematically. Like again, this Bill's offense I think is and
1:04:08
I hate using this phrase. I think it gets used too much, but
1:04:11
I think it's you know, the whole is greater than the sum of the
1:04:15
parts or whatever that like phrases. Like again, individually, on paper,
1:04:17
I don't think they have this group that someone's looking at them and it's like,
1:04:21
ooh, this is tough. That guy scares me. That guy scares
1:04:25
me. That guy scares me. But if you look at it holistically,
1:04:28
they have pieces that a good offensive coordinator, a good designer, and a
1:04:31
good play caller and sequencer can take advantage. And then factoring in what the
1:04:39
run game was last year, where is it in my notes here the Bills
1:04:44
last year forty six percent gap run rate, which was the third most,
1:04:47
and then a fifty three percent zone run rate, which was thirtieth teams.
1:04:51
As we go forward, I think we'll see this even the more in the
1:04:55
coming years. As we go forward from here, teams are going to start
1:04:58
running more gap but the Bills because also for those who don't know, duo
1:05:01
counts as a gap run. So the Bills last year their bread and butter
1:05:05
running like weak side zone, weakside, mid zone, duo, tackle rap
1:05:11
all that stuff and tackle rap that dart play. That's a gap run.
1:05:14
Duo's a gap run. And then obviously they mix in like GT counter and
1:05:16
outside zone and all that kind of stuff, but almost a fifty to fifty
1:05:19
split with gap versus zone. They have that natural baked in versatility just from
1:05:25
the running back run game already, which allows them to succeed like you can
1:05:30
you can people move, but you also could get on the move and take
1:05:33
advantage and kind of reach some guys and scoop some guys and get to the
1:05:36
second level. That's one thing that concerns me a little bit about the change
1:05:40
in offensive line, knowing that you don't have that consistency. You don't have
1:05:45
Mitch Morris's center. Connor McGovern can move a little bit, but not like
1:05:48
Mitch Morris, who you're gonna find out in Jacksonville is one of the best
1:05:51
movement dudes in football. On the offensive line, I'm gonna have some issues
1:05:56
anchoring at times and with big body dudes trying to drive him into the backfield,
1:05:59
but who he is on the run is tremendous. And then you replace
1:06:02
McGovern with Edwards at left guard, who was that sixth offensive lineman last year.
1:06:08
I think the nature of the run game changes a little bit, but
1:06:11
I think there's still set up to run enough of a good balance between zone
1:06:15
and gap people move, have some athleticism baked in and then maintain the depth
1:06:20
of the pocket if you just straight up pass or if you go play action
1:06:24
pass. And I just think this offense really is gonna be mismatch based,
1:06:29
condensed formations, power groupings, and heavier personnel, all with the idea of
1:06:34
we're gonna run the football, make you come out of those single high looks.
1:06:39
If you stay in too high, fine, we're gonna run the ball
1:06:42
for five to seven yards of pop. If you miss a tackle, James
1:06:45
Cook is gonna take one for eleven or twelve yards or maybe more. And
1:06:47
then if you start to creep down, we're gonna work in play action or
1:06:51
even if you don't, we're gonna look at the personnel you choose to match
1:06:55
with. Okay, you don't respect Dalton kincaid as a blocker. You want
1:06:59
to stay in nickel, Okay, we can still pass against that. But
1:07:02
we're gonna bring in bigger bodied wide receivers and then we're gonna run it down
1:07:05
your throat. Okay, now you're gonna match it with bigger body personnel.
1:07:10
You're gonna go with, you know, like a big nickel. You're gonna
1:07:12
bring in a third linebacker or another safety. Cool can they cover? Probably
1:07:16
not, or create that mismatch with Dalton Kincaid and or Dawson Knox and or
1:07:20
Keyon Coleman or Mvs, all of these pieces again pushing different buttons, pulling
1:07:26
different levers, which works for the Bills and Brandon being talked about it again.
1:07:31
Some of this could just be GM speak with how the offseason went,
1:07:34
but he talked about it after the draft of you know, the kind of
1:07:39
needing to evolve and change a little bit, getting younger, getting more athletic,
1:07:43
and then evolving who they were a little bit. And this is why
1:07:45
I don't think it's just GM speak, because it's such a far departure from
1:07:49
what they've been and it's also a risk. Like Josh Allen traditionally has succeeded
1:07:54
with clear and defined separators, Stefan Diggs, Cole Beasley, those dudes who
1:08:00
early they win often who basically have like the airport orange vest and the cones
1:08:05
that are like I'm wide open, throwing me the ball, give it to
1:08:08
me. Dalton kin Kate is in that mold. Kean Coleman is not.
1:08:12
MVS not necessarily Matt Collins not necessarily. Samuel is more of a gadget guy
1:08:17
that you have to scheme open. Shakir can get open. But this group
1:08:20
isn't necessarily a group of separators. It's more on the offensive coordinator to take
1:08:26
advantage of those those parts and make the sum greater than what it is.
1:08:30
And that's why I think Brandon Bean was telling the truth. And especially when
1:08:33
you pair it again with the top offenses we see in the NFL, it's
1:08:38
good schematic offenses that are based around the foundation of having mismatched creators and mismatch
1:08:45
mismatched pieces on their offense, and then that coordinator just knows which buttons the
1:08:50
press and which levers to pull at the right time, and you kind of
1:08:54
just let it go from there. Yeah, And I think there are a
1:08:57
few points that you made that kind of those thing about as you were talking
1:09:00
the first thing with the receivers accounting for in the run game. One of
1:09:03
the funniest plays I remember from last season came from the visual round when the
1:09:09
Bills tried to run Stefan Diggs at running back. Love Stefan Diggs, that's
1:09:14
not his game, But you replace stefon Diggs with Curtis Samuel, who can
1:09:18
do that? Now you have a guy who can do those design like we're
1:09:23
gonna try and create matchup nightmaners. You think about San Francisco, how many
1:09:26
times they lined up Deebo Samuel and Christian mccaffreyfield. You can you can now
1:09:30
do that with a guy like Curtis Samuel. Another thing that you brought up
1:09:34
was the where the biggest questions lie? And I think I wrote I wrote
1:09:40
about it earlier this season, not earlier this season, earlier this year when
1:09:44
the Bills trained Stepan Diggs that this is a bet on Joe Brady and Josh
1:09:47
Allen. This is a bet on development of Josh Allen and the amount of
1:09:51
time that they have poured into making Josh Allen into what he is now.
1:09:56
The reason the Chiefs were able to do what they did over the course of
1:10:00
of a year and a half is because Patrick Mahomes turned in the year and
1:10:03
a half from the most dynamic downfield thrower possibly the game has ever seen,
1:10:10
to the most efficient underneath thrower the game has possibly ever seen. Now,
1:10:15
this is the same bet on Josh Allen. Can he turn his game from
1:10:18
oh like you said these defined separators to now it's on me processing, It's
1:10:25
on me getting the ball into those underneath areas. And I think that's something
1:10:28
that Josh Allen has thrown in and has to continue his growth in. Is
1:10:33
just taking the underneath, taking the five to six yards. He's always going
1:10:38
to want to get the ball downfield. That is just his nature of play.
1:10:42
You cannot defang Josh Allen. That is what Josh Allen does. But
1:10:45
you can be like, hey man, it's okay to take this six yard
1:10:49
choice route talkin cave, It's okay to throw this under route the Curtis Samuel
1:10:54
Because now that is what the offense is built upon. That it is built
1:10:58
upon throwing the six yard routes and then the receivers turning it into ten.
1:11:03
You know, it's built on three yard routes turning in five or eight.
1:11:08
You know. It's those types of things where you you make efficient offense by
1:11:12
letting your playmakers make plays. It's less it's less on you, and I
1:11:16
think that's something that then the Bills want to try and do, especially because
1:11:23
I referenced it earlier when we were talking, but I believe it was twenty
1:11:28
twenty two. It might have been twenty two, twenty twenty two when Josh
1:11:30
Allen got hurt early in the season and they didn't really need twenty twenty two
1:11:33
against the Jets when Bryce Huff came around the corner and hit his elbow,
1:11:38
Yeah they did. They didn't really unleash Josh Allen until late in the season
1:11:42
against Tampa when he was fully healthy. But now they sort of realize that
1:11:46
now it's time for Josh to be playmaker. Not in terms of, oh,
1:11:51
I'm gonna go get it myself. It's like it's like telling your telling
1:11:58
your star player, Yeah, you might be able to go get a bucket,
1:12:00
but you're getting doubled. You got to pass the ball. Somebody's gonna
1:12:05
be open. You know, somebody's gonna be able to make them play,
1:12:09
and you have to trust those guys to make the plays. I think it's
1:12:12
also a bet on Joe Brady because while I think Joe Brady's work in developing
1:12:16
the run game of the Bills was really, really good, I think he
1:12:19
still left some meat on the bone in the passing game. Yes, and
1:12:23
you could tell because they just didn't throw the ball A lot like that is
1:12:27
like I think over the first ten games of the season, Josh Allen through
1:12:30
the ball like three hundred and eighty times, but then when Joe Brady came
1:12:38
in, that number went down by like one hundred and fifty, you know,
1:12:41
like they they drastically changed that offense. But the marriage between the run
1:12:46
in the past still kind of lacked. So I think in the offseason,
1:12:51
especially going into this season, I think this is a bet on Joe Brady
1:12:55
because you want to try and help merge that game, merge the merge your
1:13:00
two offenses together. At some points during the season when Joe Brady was coordinated,
1:13:05
it felt like they were running two completely different offenses. Like the offense
1:13:11
that you saw against the Cowboys was a lot different from the offense that you
1:13:14
saw against the Dolphins in the week eighteen. And of course game plans vary
1:13:17
from team to team in week over week, but such a drastic difference feels
1:13:23
very disjointed. So I think where Joe Brady can develop is kind of working
1:13:29
on that in between games, working on merging the run in the past.
1:13:32
Last year, the Bills, according to Pro Football Reference, finished I think
1:13:38
twenty second in true like play action passing attempts, and I think that's a
1:13:43
number that's probably going to go up with you know, like you said,
1:13:46
losing Mitch Morse hurts, but you can mask losing Mitch Morse by running play
1:13:50
action. You know, that's a way to kind of get those attacking defenses
1:13:55
that are going to play. I mean, playing the Jets twice a year.
1:13:57
You want to defag that deef theply and that's coming at you every single
1:14:00
play by running play action slow them down, and you use that You do
1:14:04
that by using play action. Of course, like I always say, play
1:14:09
action and motion is not an instant get rich quick scheme. It is not
1:14:14
the uh, it's not the rebuff that you get in RPG games where you
1:14:18
drink it and then you instantly become one hundred percent. This is not the
1:14:23
this is not link crushing the pots this is That's not what this is.
1:14:29
But you know it is a way to help give your quarterback a wider margin
1:14:33
for error. Yes, and for the longest I think the Bills have kind
1:14:40
of towed the line between Josh save us and hey, let's help, let's
1:14:45
help you out a little bit, And now I think they should kind of
1:14:48
lean more towards we're gonna help you out a little bit. We're gonna run
1:14:53
the ball a little bit more. We're gonna try and be better at running
1:14:56
the football so you don't have to carry as much weight as a runner in
1:14:59
a PA, so you can finally kind of grow into a full fledge like
1:15:04
this is, you know, best quarterback in the NFL. And that's something
1:15:09
where I think, like I said, this season is going to hinge on
1:15:14
Joe Brady's development as a play caller, and not in just pure design of
1:15:19
the offense, but sequencing. Yeah, I think that's something that's lost a
1:15:24
lot when we talk about play callers. It's not just calling cool plays.
1:15:28
If it was just about calling cool plays, Cliff Kingsbury would be hot shit,
1:15:32
but he's not, because it's about when you called them and how you
1:15:36
called well, not how you call them, No, I mean like that,
1:15:41
but yeah, I know, but how you get to them, how
1:15:43
you disguise them, Like everybody runs dagger and everybody runs sale, but how
1:15:46
do you get to it, How do you dress it up? How do
1:15:48
you disguise it? What wrinkles do you add? Because again go into our
1:15:51
cyclical conversation, nothing is new, everything is the same everybody runs the same
1:15:58
stuff, but how do you dress it up? To your point? When
1:16:00
do you call it? It's that sequencing, it's and I think that's what
1:16:04
Brady did well last year with the sequencing and the layering. And I think
1:16:08
what's interesting, to go to your point as well, is him having a
1:16:11
full off season to install his offense, not add his tweaks to the Ken
1:16:16
Dorsey offense, but have his offense. And I think what's interesting again,
1:16:20
going in conjunction with your point, is you saying it's them betting on Brady
1:16:24
and Alan by extension. But I really do think it is a large bet
1:16:28
on Brady or them leaning into that more so than Allen because of the change
1:16:32
in body types and what they're looking for in the room, trading away Stefan
1:16:38
Diggs, moving away from more pure and declarative separators and going with a bigger
1:16:43
bodied element. Now it could just be the natural evolution of where they think
1:16:45
football needs to go and where they think their offense needs to go, like
1:16:48
we've talked about. But I do think your point it is a bet on
1:16:51
Brady, and I think that's very interesting when paired with this being the offseason
1:16:56
to really fully install what his offense will be. Yeah, and I think
1:17:01
something that I think the Bills can really benefit from. But I also think
1:17:05
like every NFL team can benefit from, especially getting more pistol involved in the
1:17:12
I say it all the time, pistol like it's an ever green tweet.
1:17:15
It's the best, it's the it's the you talk about marrying. You've you've
1:17:18
said that word so much. You're marrying shotgun and under centered stuff. It
1:17:23
still gives you. It gives you you. It opens up the menu for
1:17:26
everything. I tweet at least once a month in season. The Bill should
1:17:30
use more pistol. The Bill should use more pistol. It's like an evergreen
1:17:32
tweet for me every year, every month, because even even with pistol,
1:17:38
you can get into those gaps team runs, but you also mitigate the amount
1:17:43
of strain you put on your running back and his vision. You know,
1:17:45
you're not asking the running back to immediately get the ball and kind of just
1:17:49
dance around and shotgun and you can give him that track, and you can
1:17:54
give him that opportunity to survey and poke and plot or explode right away and
1:17:58
hit what you need to. Yeah, you think about the Ravens. The
1:18:01
Ravens use a lot of pistol because they had that threat as a runner and
1:18:06
they had that threat as a quarterback, where again you can marry the run
1:18:11
game with attacking downfield in the passing game. I think that's something the Bills
1:18:15
can definitely benefit from. I don't think Joe Brady is going to use it
1:18:18
as much. I think they're gonna strictly remain kind of shotgunny. But I
1:18:24
do think, like I said, the marriage between run and pass is going
1:18:30
to have to improve, because I mean, unless unless the new guys on
1:18:34
the offensive line become the greatest offensive line known to man and you can just
1:18:40
beat the crab out of teams for seventy players a game. If that happens,
1:18:43
I think I make the Bills like my favorite offense to watch. They
1:18:45
just run power and counter seventy players a game that rock. But I think
1:18:53
the marriage between the run in the past is going to going to have to
1:18:56
improve. And I think for Josh Allen, it is taking those underneath routes
1:19:00
where I think he improved on it even last year, where in order to
1:19:05
get to be you gotta get to A. You get from A to B
1:19:09
you can't just skip to B. It's like doing a math problem. You
1:19:13
can't just skip to the answer. My mom would always tell me, you
1:19:15
can't just get to the answer. You got to go through the process,
1:19:18
you know, you got to get from A to B, the B to
1:19:20
C. And I think that's where Josh Allen is starting to continue to improve
1:19:26
and where he's already shown a drastic amount of improvement. But it's going to
1:19:30
be much more important this year because he doesn't have the defined separators. He
1:19:34
doesn't have the easy button of seth Digg's stop route. You know, they
1:19:39
don't. They don't have that easy button anymore. So finding their easy buttons
1:19:44
is going to be critical going into the season. I like that a lot.
1:19:47
And you know, for as much as this offense has been, you
1:19:53
know, relying like okay to your point, like they kind of getting that
1:19:56
caught caught in that in between of all right, we need to rely on
1:19:59
Josh Allen to be you corner and we got to get him some help and
1:20:00
take it off his plate, and the kind of like that do we not
1:20:04
do we? Dewey, do we not do we? And sitting on the
1:20:08
fence, I think Diggs fell into that as well, because it was like
1:20:11
when push comes to shove, all right, Diggs is going to beat somebody
1:20:13
on the outside, and we're going to go to Stefan Diggs. Like whether
1:20:15
it was by design or whether it was Alan knowing that, Like even last
1:20:17
year when teams were kind of seeing the predictable nature of the Bills and what
1:20:23
Diggs was going to do because of what the play calling was, teams are
1:20:27
like knowing, okay, we know Denver's a great example. It wasn't certain
1:20:30
it was the other corner on the other side. It's like a third down
1:20:31
and the corner is just hard inside leverage. Knowing that Diggs is going to
1:20:35
run a slant and Digs still finds a way to get him to work up
1:20:40
field and then went across his face and get inside on the slant and get
1:20:43
open and make a catch for a first down. And to your point,
1:20:45
now you don't have I don't think you're gonna have this offense that's all on
1:20:49
Alan or all on Diggs because this offense and I love that phrasing to get
1:20:54
like get a bucket again. I use it so much and it applies so
1:20:58
well to this offense. Like I don't think this. This offen is not
1:21:00
built for like, oh, you got these dudes who can go get a
1:21:01
bucket, you can play ioball and do whatever like. This offense is built
1:21:04
around Allen, who's a very good player. But to your point, now
1:21:09
he's going to see those double teams and teams are going to try and trap
1:21:12
him. So can he get the ball out? And can someone else make
1:21:15
a shots? Can someone dribble drive? Can someone you know create their own
1:21:17
shot? Or are you creating space for everyone by granted, you know with
1:21:23
the Warriors offense when they were cooking under Curry years ago, like they had
1:21:26
dudes who could, you know, get a bucket seemingly at will, but
1:21:30
they had such great off ball movement. I just think of everything they were
1:21:33
doing to get Steph Curry open and all the screens and off ball movement and
1:21:38
like zigging and zagging along the baseline and everything like. So you had dudes
1:21:41
who could get a bucket. But even if they didn't, Steve Kerr was
1:21:45
so adept at getting dudes open by creating so much chaos that allowed them to
1:21:48
get open. So can Joe Brady be that? Can Joe Brady create that
1:21:51
space, and I like the point you mentioned about, you know, the
1:21:56
under center and shotgun stuff. I want pistols so bad. At the bills
1:22:00
rate last year in offense bro it just worked. It just works. It
1:22:05
marries everything like you and especially with Josh Allen, who is very good at
1:22:10
being a magician with the ball and hiding it when he turns his back to
1:22:15
the defense. You get that with pistol, and you get the downhill right.
1:22:17
You can still go wide zone and do stuff. You can still get
1:22:20
downhill and run duo and inside zone and all this stuff you can run.
1:22:25
You can run everything from a pass that run perspective out of it while also
1:22:29
helping your running back visually with his track instead of just having to be in
1:22:32
a shotgun because people don't talk about that enough. Like being able to like
1:22:36
line up in a single back look or like dot that I and being able
1:22:42
to come downhill versus being in the shotgun and having a sidestep and grab it
1:22:45
this way with no momentum and then get going like that's a different type of
1:22:48
pacing. It's a different type of connection mentally and physically. The pistol helps
1:22:54
merge that I really want, really want some of that, the Bills last
1:22:57
year had a seventy three percent shot rate in the Joe Brady offense. From
1:23:02
Week eleven on through the rest of the regular season, they had a seventy
1:23:05
percent shotgun rate, so not much changed overall. There not much change with
1:23:10
motion either, And what I'm also interested to see overall in the year.
1:23:14
Last year a sixteen percent play action rate for the Buffalo Bills just under Joe
1:23:20
Brady, also a sixteen percent play action rate that on the season was ranked
1:23:26
fourteenth, but they had a nineteen percent RPO rate on the year, which
1:23:30
was the third most, and under Joe Brady they had a twenty percent RPO
1:23:35
rate, which was the fourth most. And I wonder how much of I
1:23:40
think RPOs have to get factored into the play action conversation, even though they're
1:23:43
not play action, but just that notion of trying to game up the defense
1:23:47
a little bit. I would like to see them move away from RPOs because
1:23:54
of even though if you hit on an RPO the way you should, defenses
1:23:58
have no answer you. You are able to have the trump card no matter
1:24:02
what. But defenses can also dictate to you by forcing your hand, by
1:24:08
forcing you to hand the ball off or forcing you to pass it. I
1:24:11
would like to see more traditional play action for the Bills offense instead of RPOs,
1:24:16
and specifically under center play action or still play action. If he look,
1:24:21
you can do it, you can do it. You got the best
1:24:25
of both worlds. But I think the r PO point is really interesting because
1:24:28
I think defenses now are geared to defend RPOs like yeah, you you'll play
1:24:33
too high and forced teams to pass the ball, but or for force teams
1:24:36
to pass the ball out of those RPOs. But that's all well and good
1:24:41
until the safety is hitting you like Goldberg over the middle on a glance route
1:24:45
and then you're like, dang, I just I don't want to send my
1:24:48
receiver over the middle again because that safety is sitting right there. You know.
1:24:54
Now you have teams that are just going to sit in that glance zone
1:24:58
and it takes away the response ability of the linebacker and the passing game.
1:25:01
That's where that's why playing those light boxes is so prevalent nowadays, because you
1:25:08
take away the responsibility of a linebacker and coverage and let him be a run
1:25:13
only player. You let him okay, if it's an RPO, you just
1:25:16
got the run because your zone is being taken up by a safety who's coming
1:25:20
off the roof. You change that with hard play action because even though that
1:25:26
safety is coming off the roof, he still has to have his quarter,
1:25:30
you know, he stills to have that quarter's coverage. So what are you
1:25:32
going to do in that point? So I think getting more under center or
1:25:34
getting more hard play action is going to especially help. I think turning the
1:25:41
RPOs, this is the biggest thingam that the Chiefs did, was turning the
1:25:45
RPOs into just runs. Yes, it's just and to connect to your previous
1:25:50
point. The Bills did that in that game against the Bucks, that regular
1:25:54
season game in the second half, instead of just those RPO looks, just
1:25:57
became true run it type of runs, and it changed the complexion of that
1:26:00
game. Yeah, even against Dallas, they those RBO looks were just runs.
1:26:04
If you're if teams are going to continue to play light boxes at you
1:26:10
and you have a run game, Mike, the Bills and a plus one
1:26:13
quarterback and guys who can win after the catch or in the backfield, just
1:26:17
run at them until they quit. You know, it's not it's not the
1:26:21
sexiest, it's not the most fun. It probably won't get the most efficient
1:26:26
point, but it's math. It's numbers. Like, if you have that
1:26:28
numbers advantage, do it. And then again, if you're playing Dallas and
1:26:30
you have the numbers advantage and the size advantage because they have a two hundred
1:26:34
and five pounds line linebackers, like, uh, I'll never forget. Mark
1:26:40
Helfritch when he was at Orgon talked about his offense one day on college game
1:26:44
that he was like, it's just numbers. If they're six in the box,
1:26:47
we're gonna run it. If they're seven in the box, we'll throw
1:26:51
it. It makes the offense simple, and you play faster when you play
1:26:56
simple, you know. So I think getting to that getting into that designed
1:27:00
run game, that designated run game, not even turning Josh Allen into like
1:27:06
twenty carries a game or like not even fifteen. But like I then,
1:27:11
like I said earlier, pull on his zone, read those run those counterbashes.
1:27:15
You know, even I again not advocating for RPOs. You will never
1:27:20
hear me advocate for RPOs. Stick draw they did against the Eagles. Just
1:27:26
run stick draw. It's it's insane. In the red zone when you have
1:27:30
Josh Allen, because you have the numbers advantaged. So now it's about,
1:27:33
like I said, finding the easy buttons for the Bills offense, and how
1:27:38
they go about finding that easy button is going to be interesting to watch throughout
1:27:43
the season. Yes, well said you mentioned in that Oregon piece, and
1:27:47
I was thinking back to I think. I think I was watching a Rich
1:27:51
Rodriguez coaching clinic when he was at Arizona, and I forget he had such
1:27:57
a clever way of saying it, but like he was going on their rules
1:28:00
for offense and it was literally just like if there's this many in the box
1:28:03
or less, we're running at every single time. Like and there we was
1:28:06
like he dressed it up with like a catchy phrase or something, but it
1:28:09
was literally that like if there's this many or less, we're running at every
1:28:12
single time. And that's what it is. Like, offense is math and
1:28:16
then defense is geometry because it's about spacing and it's about leveraging all those pieces.
1:28:21
And that's what I think is so good. What's annoyed me so much
1:28:26
about the Bills offense in previous years is because they had that passing threat,
1:28:30
they had that math advantage in the box, so much where there was only
1:28:33
you know, six dudes in the box or sometimes five, and they'd have
1:28:38
a body on a body or a hat on a hat, or they'd have
1:28:41
you know, the tight end attached to the formation. It was six on
1:28:44
six, and they'd be like, run the ball, like you have a
1:28:46
hat on a hat or you have a gap advantage. Or even if they
1:28:48
have seven in the box and you only have six blockers, cool hand it
1:28:53
off and do something with Josh Allen and hold that backside edge and or maybe
1:28:58
even that backside linebacker because of the threat. And now you've just removed two
1:29:01
from it, which they did a little bit against Dallas as well, which
1:29:04
added to that tackle wrapped dart piece. They have the opportunity to win with
1:29:09
math because of Josh Allen or just their run game in general. And I
1:29:14
hope now with the bodies that they have from a pass catching standpoint in the
1:29:18
tight end room and receiver room, I hope they also can win schematically.
1:29:23
And that just to your point, like that marriages everything, that brings everything
1:29:28
together, that melds it all together, because if you can get an offense
1:29:31
that is diverse in the run game from a gap in zone perspective, but
1:29:34
then also has a run game to pair with a pass game where it truly
1:29:39
connects. Similar to Jeff Stoutlin, the Eagles offensive line coach, I was
1:29:45
watching a coaching clinic with him last offseason and he said this thing that it
1:29:50
was so simple. But every pass that they have, like they're under center
1:29:57
like passes, they've got a all of them, sorry, all of it
1:30:00
undersoner runs, They've got a play action that mirrors it, like exactly,
1:30:03
so everything just to confuse defenses. And I think of that so much because
1:30:09
now the Bills can like lean into that type of world because of the bodies
1:30:12
that they have and the formations and alignments that they can have. So now
1:30:15
you can have a diverse run game. But then you can have a run
1:30:19
game and a pass game where the two mirror each other where you don't know
1:30:23
if the runner pass is coming until you see declarity declaratively where the ball is,
1:30:29
which isn't the easiest thing. And now you're playing with defenders' eyes and
1:30:32
they're processing, and you're getting your sucking dudes up and hitting behind them,
1:30:36
or you're making them hesitate a little bit and you're giving an extra quarter or
1:30:41
half of a second for James Cook to get on you on your toes and
1:30:44
get five or six yards when you should have only gotten three. All of
1:30:46
these pieces start to add together, and I think that's what's exciting for this
1:30:51
offense. For is as worrisome as it is of you change the offensive line.
1:30:58
Grandam mcgovernor is still there, but you have changed two out of the
1:31:00
five starters from last year after you finally finally got consistency and good offensive line
1:31:09
play for the first time really under in Josh Allen's tenure, you had this
1:31:13
offensive line that could function in the run in the past. You change that.
1:31:16
Then you ship out Stefan Diggs, and regardless of what everybody thinks about
1:31:20
Diggs and or Gabe Davis or Sherfield Hardy, whatever, you completely revamp the
1:31:26
wide receiver room. You've changed the offensive line again two out of those five
1:31:30
positions. And then you have a new coordinator, and then you look at
1:31:33
the bodies that were replacing guys and it gets a little scary because you're thinking,
1:31:38
like, again, even if people think Digs is washed, which I
1:31:41
will I'm going to say right now, he's not. And I know everybody
1:31:43
hates him. Or thinks he's terrible. I don't, but that's a conversation
1:31:46
for another time. You look on paper and it's like, man, this
1:31:50
Bills team got worse offensively, But I think if Brady hits, and to
1:31:56
your point, if the betting on Joe Brady pays dividends like they think it
1:32:00
should, this offense can come out cleaner on the other side, despite not
1:32:03
being as good on paper, despite not being as sexy, because they are
1:32:06
right, the opportunity to go back to kind of just not that it's simple,
1:32:11
but like simplistic football, which is run the football, be diverse in
1:32:15
your run game, and build your pass game off of that with mismatches that
1:32:19
you have in your payer pass catching rooms. And that's it. Like if
1:32:23
you have the schematic person to take advantage of it with design and with sequencing,
1:32:29
like this offense can really go Again. I think that's a big if,
1:32:32
but if it clicks, it could be really, really, really fun.
1:32:35
Yeah, and another question I have is gonna be kind of short,
1:32:40
but it's how much motion. And again, motion is not a magical panacea
1:32:45
that's going to instantly make your offense into the greatest show on turf, but
1:32:50
using it not only will help your quarterback, but it will help your receivers
1:32:54
out a lot. You don't have to always put them in isolated situations.
1:32:58
According to Seth Walder, who does great work at ESPN on tracking motion rates
1:33:01
over the NFL, in terms of motion at the snap, the Bills were
1:33:05
twenty seven in the NFL last year. That's that works because you have Stefan
1:33:13
Diggs who can win in isolation points. You can even win in isolation get
1:33:17
you a buckett anymore. So, I wonder if that motion rate goes up
1:33:23
because of guys like Curtis Samuel who are always going to be in motion,
1:33:27
Kalosha Kir who goes in motion a lot, Kean Coleman who can be used
1:33:30
in those situations. And not only that, but also tying into your point
1:33:33
about condensed tight splits, you can create those type and create those tight splits
1:33:39
by bringing a guy in or pushing a guy out, like we saw everybody
1:33:44
and their grandmother do last years. Motion, tear motion, whatever the hell
1:33:47
you want to call it. I think Galacyana called it cheap motion. We'll
1:33:50
go on cheap motion. Cheap motion. How how Joe Brady ties that in?
1:33:57
You know it's just building layers on Often, Sean McVay and the Rams
1:34:02
don't run a lot of They truly don't run a lot of plays. I
1:34:05
think Sean McVay is said they don't run a lot of plays. They have
1:34:09
a lot of formations and a lot of tags and a lot of motions that
1:34:12
make everything look different despite the bones of it being the same. So how
1:34:17
Joe Brady goes about creating the illusion of creating the illusion of Oh, what's
1:34:27
the word? I can't believe I'm blanking on it. I want to help,
1:34:32
but I don't know where the thought is going. So I'm just just
1:34:35
started the illusion of diversity in the passing game. Nice, Okay, you
1:34:43
don't have to always run like these crazy different formations and orbotformations or these crazy
1:34:47
different plays or passing concepts dress differently. Yeah, it just just make it
1:34:53
look different presentation, and I think that's something where I think Joe Brady can
1:34:58
improve. Like we saw last year the presentation of it. I think again,
1:35:02
a critical point for this Bill's team was the Cowboys game where they used
1:35:08
motion to kind of dress everything up and look the same, but it was
1:35:12
something different. So in short, I know it was gonna be short with
1:35:15
this. But yeah, using motion not as an instant boosts to the offense
1:35:24
or like the whole backbone of the thing, because as good as motion is,
1:35:28
you can also turn into Mac Canada. But using it to help your
1:35:34
receivers who don't necessarily win in isolated spots anymore, it's gonna be huge.
1:35:40
And I also think even using that, using that motion and or just shifts
1:35:45
to potentially help id coverages for Josh Allen and make his life easier, especially
1:35:48
in this world with I like the idea of using motion and just helping to
1:35:55
him ID like, Okay, we got man coverage or we got you know,
1:35:59
zone just like literally is simple and that sounds so simple and straightforward.
1:36:02
But if you have this run centric offense or this power run game, it
1:36:06
does it pull a defender from the box? Straight up? Are you pulling
1:36:11
a linebacker out? Like? And again that even creates another advantage. Right,
1:36:15
say you're in this spread and you got Allen in the backfield with Cook
1:36:18
and you motion Cook out of the backfield. Does a linebacker go with him?
1:36:23
Cool? Not only do you have that identifier that it's probably man coverage,
1:36:27
but you also just pulled the regular run defender from the box. Now
1:36:30
what does that numbers look like for Josh Allen in the run game? And
1:36:32
do we just change it and it's a QB jar We just run some QB
1:36:35
power out of like a spread. Look like all these potential benefits from the
1:36:40
motion and I think that's where that's another aspect. And I like that you
1:36:45
went to that part of the conversation because I think that goes hand in hand
1:36:48
with a lot of what we're saying. Like you, I don't want to
1:36:51
make it seem like the Bills need to use all these trick plays and do
1:36:55
all this stuff, but I really think the Bills need to do whatever they
1:36:58
can to game up D defences because I don't think they strictly have the one
1:37:02
on one talent that's just going out and getting a bucket, that's just winning
1:37:05
an ile ball. So you have to use alignments, personnel formations, motion,
1:37:12
the run game, play action, some gadgetry stuff. Again putting Curtis
1:37:15
Samuel in the backfield and legitimately handing the ball off to him or sending him
1:37:20
out of the backfield on a Texas route or an angle route, and you
1:37:23
know, having the numbers advantage and using some smoke screens or having a one
1:37:27
on one opportunity keyon Coleman and being like, hey, their outside corner on
1:37:30
you is like five ten and one hundred and ninety four pounds. We're just
1:37:34
gonna throw this ball up and you better dunk on him, like Sean Kemp
1:37:38
for the Seattle Sonics, Like that's what you need to do. And they
1:37:41
have to be able to work all these buttons, because to your point,
1:37:44
it's not just you know, I talked about all these offenses earlier and these
1:37:47
guys and you know, the final four teams last year and the Niners,
1:37:50
the Lions, the Ravens, the Chiefs, and how they led into or
1:37:55
leaned into certain personnel groupings to take advantages and have mismat which is true,
1:38:01
but they also just have really good football players in a vacuum like Brandon Ayuk
1:38:04
and Deebo Samuel and George Kittle and McCaffrey. And again with the Lions,
1:38:10
like there is no Aman Ross Saint Brown on this team. Maybe they have
1:38:13
a Sam Laporta on this team, although I think Kinkaid and the Porter are
1:38:15
two different type of dudes. But you look at the individual players that existed
1:38:19
on those teams, and you've got true one on one bucket getters, ball
1:38:23
winners type of stuff. I don't think the Bills necessarily have that. I
1:38:27
think if the season goes right this time next year, I think Dalton Kincaid
1:38:32
can be talked about as potentially one of like the premier or on the cuss
1:38:36
premier players in the league, just based off the position he plays, his
1:38:42
skill set, and how much I think Allen's going to go to him.
1:38:44
Like you said at the very beginning, he's the tip of the spear.
1:38:46
I've been using similar verbiage throughout this offseason, like once they drafted Coleman,
1:38:50
like this offense is going to funnel through Dalton Kincaid, And so I think
1:38:56
next year at this time we could be having the conversation of being like,
1:38:58
Okay, they've got Allen and they've got Kincaid, let's see what everything else
1:39:02
is, YadA YadA. But I don't know if that. I don't know
1:39:05
if they necessarily have that with anyone else. Like I think Khaliusha Kire is
1:39:10
a nice piece and maybe he elevates further, but I think we know what
1:39:13
Curtis Samuel is. I think Kean Coleman is going to take a couple of
1:39:15
years to kind of develop from a refinement and precision standpoint. But again,
1:39:21
all of these guys have buttons that can be pressed that work. It's just
1:39:26
really gonna be on Joe Brady to push those buttons and within that vein and
1:39:30
kind of within that notion us talking about this this Kansas City esque ish renovation
1:39:35
to the offense, funneling in with the larger trends we're seeing with some of
1:39:40
the top offenses in the league in terms of mismatch creation, running the ball,
1:39:44
condensed formations, this whole conversation, schematically, personnel alignment formations, all
1:39:48
that kind of stuff. Do you think it works for the Bills in twenty
1:39:53
twenty four? And do you think if it does, this is them they
1:39:58
do they stay the course and lean into with harder Do you think it's a
1:40:00
one year pivot or test as they try to course correct financially kind of looking
1:40:06
at that crystal ball a little bit and kind of what do you see for
1:40:10
twenty twenty four and beyond given the shift that we're prognosticating here. So I
1:40:15
think it works because Josh Allen is phenomenal that if you have Josh Allen's your
1:40:19
quarterback and offense will work. I think it's going to take a little time.
1:40:25
I think it's gonna look a little rough to start the season just because
1:40:29
you're playing young guys out there at receiver. You don't have those easy buttons,
1:40:33
like we said, so maybe there's a little bit more leaning on the
1:40:35
run game. There's leaning more on Kincaid, who is this second year player
1:40:40
who now all of a sudden becomes the VET in the skill position room of
1:40:45
a guy who knows what the offense is. And you think about a guy
1:40:47
like klill Skier who now becomes that elder statesman in the room. I was
1:40:53
gonna say he's the most tenured like wide receiver in the wide receiver room right
1:40:57
now. Yeah, so he becomes the VET. But I think as the
1:41:01
young guys grow around Josh Allen, you will see that offense start to blossom
1:41:09
late in the season. We said it last year with Kansas City, even
1:41:13
this year with Kansas City. It's gonna take a little time because they needed
1:41:17
to build it back up. But once it got going, it got going
1:41:23
you could tell what it was. So now with the bills. Like I
1:41:27
said, I think it works, but expecting instant fireworks can be a little
1:41:31
bit of a stretch for the Bills. I'd say around like week eight is
1:41:40
when this offense is really going to start to kick in the high gear.
1:41:43
Fair. I think so much of it hinges on who Jalon Kin Kate is
1:41:48
this year, Who Kean Coleman is this year, and or just who who
1:41:54
from the bigger bodied wide receivers is able to kind of stake their claim because
1:41:58
again, we know what Curtis Samuel is. I think we have a good
1:42:00
idea of who Khalil and who and what Khalil Shakure is and I say those
1:42:04
things positively, but I think for this offense to truly get unlocked, those
1:42:10
bigger bodied right wide receivers have to play their role. So that's what I
1:42:14
think kind of puts things into pause or a little bit of neutral for me.
1:42:17
How far along is keyon Coleman? How effective can mac Collins be?
1:42:20
How effective can MVS be? Because I think those bigger body dudes in conjunction
1:42:26
with Kincaid and knocks like so much of this conversation really starts to open things
1:42:30
up and expand I think for an early part of this year, the offense,
1:42:33
to your point, is like, I think it's not gonna be sexy.
1:42:36
I think it's gonna be a lot of Dalton Kinkaid on option routes and
1:42:40
maybe some chunk plays downfield. I think it's gonna be a lot of Dalton
1:42:44
Kinkaid and a lot of run in the football and it's non sexy of a
1:42:46
fashion, Like I think this Bill's offense can put up points, but I
1:42:51
think it's gonna be I've joked for so long that I've wanted the Bills to
1:42:58
become this power running team who generates explosives from play action, and I think
1:43:03
this is getting. This offense is becoming really close to that joke that I've
1:43:08
been making for the past couple of years, because with how Allen succeeds,
1:43:12
Alan and most quarterbacks are good off of play action, especially under center,
1:43:15
but I think under center play action gets Alan into a rhythm mechanically that allows
1:43:19
him to succeed when he's throwing the ball downfield or attacking in the intermediate.
1:43:24
And when you pay granted, you don't have to have play action or you
1:43:26
don't have to have a good run game to have a good play action game
1:43:29
or successful play action game, but if you do, it helps, and
1:43:31
the Bills run game is so good. I really think we get kind of
1:43:36
again. I know Nckveigh's offense and what he does is more of a New
1:43:41
Age take, but I really think we get back to kind of just old
1:43:44
schoolish kind of football, which is run the football, push dudes off the
1:43:48
line and create displacement, control the ball, get physical, and then you
1:43:54
go with play action and strength from there and kind of generate your explosives that
1:43:57
way because you're not You have mbs who can get downfield. You have Curtis
1:44:00
Samuel who's fast, but I don't think he plays as fast as four to
1:44:03
three one time. Shakiir can get downfield, but isn't necessarily a burner.
1:44:08
You don't have all this true vertical threat speed throughout your lineup. You have
1:44:12
some dudes that can work down there, but I think to really attack and
1:44:15
generate explosives, it's either going to come through yards after catch or from a
1:44:18
play action perspective, and or even from the run. You know, we
1:44:23
talked about motion and what it can do from an idea, coverage, identification,
1:44:29
perspective or you know, giving you advantages in the past game. You
1:44:32
also can use it in the run, you know, throw an MBS in
1:44:34
motion or keyan Coleman in motion and using him as the lead blocker and like
1:44:38
running a toss to Cook or running some zone to that side and allowing him
1:44:42
to crack on someone or drive somebody out. They they can do so much
1:44:45
from a leverage perspective in the past and the run, in addition to the
1:44:49
mismatch game that I think this offense, while again not sexy on paper,
1:44:55
I think they're gonna be a fun film study this year, watching them week
1:44:59
in and week out, seeing what Brady is doing seeing And I think this
1:45:02
is another one I tweeted earlier today that I think Trevor Lawrence is one of
1:45:08
the best litmus tests for people who watch tape versus don't, because the people
1:45:14
who don't watch tape speak about Trevor Lawrence at a completely different manner than the
1:45:17
people who do watch tape. I think the Bills offense is going to be
1:45:20
in a similar vein in terms of that litmus test, in terms of seeing
1:45:25
what they are potentially from a numbers perspective or from a raw stats perspective versus
1:45:30
what they're doing on film and then seeing their evolution and their progression week to
1:45:34
week, because again, so much of it is going to depend on pushing
1:45:38
those buttons and pulling those levers in the run, in the pass and in
1:45:41
the mismatch area. And again it's going to go super forward. Like if
1:45:45
Joe Brady hits with this offense the way he could, is he even here
1:45:50
next year? Does somebody see them and be like, man, look what
1:45:54
he got out of all these dudes that aren't sexy on paper. I want
1:45:57
to make him my next head coach, Like teams are always looking for that.
1:46:00
Like there's so many dominoes that could result from this, but just in
1:46:02
a vacuum. I think the film study weekend and week out is gonna be
1:46:05
real fun with this offense. Yeah, this is like when Chris Jericho went
1:46:10
from using the Lion Salt and Advancer in like WCW to use truly using the
1:46:16
Walls of Jericho and the code Breaker when he got to the when he hated
1:46:20
the code Breaker. I love the Walls and I love the Lion Salt.
1:46:23
The code Breaker pissed me off. It's such a pro wrestling move like pro
1:46:29
wrestling as a bunch of mops are like, I don't think that could really
1:46:31
work in real life, but I'm gonna roll with it. The Codebreaker is
1:46:34
one of those moves. But what I mean by that is you're going from
1:46:38
this high flying, high risk, high reward offense to a bit more ground
1:46:43
game, a bit a little bit more like we're gonna suffocate you offensively,
1:46:48
literally like less all jokes aside, like less cruiserweight Chris Jericho and more like
1:46:54
Intercontinental champion type of Chris Jericho. Yeah, like this is getting into the
1:47:00
we're gonna try and make this offense. Like I said, it's gonna be
1:47:02
sustainable. I think this Bill's offense isn't gonna be sexy. It's not gonna
1:47:06
put up a whole lot of like they're not gonna lead the league in scoring,
1:47:11
especially early, but I think it's gonna be sustainable and it's going to
1:47:14
grow as these young guys grow during the season, which again is the bet
1:47:19
and the case seification they're doing of this offense because Kansas City allowed their offense
1:47:26
to grow over the last two seasons, especially after trading away Tyreek Hill.
1:47:30
This is what the Bills are trying to do. They're trying to allow those
1:47:32
young guys to grow. They will figure it out as the season goes along,
1:47:36
and you're able to do that because your quarterback gives you such a wide
1:47:41
margin for error, and I think that's where the Bills will operate, especially
1:47:44
in the first half of the season. But then, like I said,
1:47:46
around Week eight, you'll start to see, especially in the beginning of the
1:47:49
season, you'll see the vision for what they're trying to do. We see
1:47:53
the foundation. The results might not match up with the process, but you'll
1:47:57
like the process. But then as the results start to match with the process,
1:48:01
then you'll start to see it start to click. Because playing in the
1:48:05
NFL is hard. Being a rookie starter in the NFL is hard. Like
1:48:11
that's a really difficult thing to do, going from Brian panting into the fire,
1:48:15
especially for a team like the Bills who are seeing as Super Bowl contenders
1:48:18
and getting the best from every opponent and very good opponents, especially early.
1:48:25
So it's gonna look a little rough to start, but I think as the
1:48:30
season goes along, you'll start to see his offense really take off. I
1:48:33
like that, and I think that's well said, and that fits into my
1:48:38
you know, why I think they're gonna be such a fun film study,
1:48:40
and why I think they're gonna be like in that litmus test like Trevor Lawrence,
1:48:43
is because watching them early on, I think you're gonna be able to
1:48:46
see, like, ooh, to your point, I see what the vision
1:48:49
is. I see what they're going for. The end result isn't what they
1:48:54
wanted it to be, but if they keep along this pace like that,
1:48:57
end result will be there, and if they can tread water and maintain I
1:49:01
really do think this is an offense that when you're talking about them in November
1:49:05
and December, it's like wow, Like we could see, we could see
1:49:10
the rumblings of who they were gonna be in September and October, and now
1:49:14
here we are in November and December and things are starting to come to fruition.
1:49:16
And even if it doesn't necessarily happen by week eight or as early as
1:49:20
you'd like, you could do a lot worse than an athletic strong arm QB
1:49:26
and a good run game. And that's it. And I think another wild
1:49:30
card within all this, which we will not be getting into right now,
1:49:32
is pairing it with the defense and what the defense looks like given all the
1:49:38
wholesale changes on that side of the ball, and how these two things pair
1:49:41
together. But yeah, this offense is going to be an interesting case study
1:49:45
again this I mentioned it in the intro, like the changing nature of defenses,
1:49:49
the too high coverages and nickel and all that stuff that we talked about
1:49:53
so much like it was put in mind to like stop offense like the Bills
1:49:58
and like the Chiefs, and then you know, you, you know,
1:50:00
trying to stop Okay, we're pivoting because we're trying to stop the Shanahans and
1:50:02
the mcveigh's. And then it was, okay, now we're trying to stab
1:50:05
what Mahomes is doing, what Allen is doing. And so the Bills,
1:50:10
while in themselves have their specific response who they are, is really part of
1:50:15
the current trend we're seeing in NFL football offensively and defensively, and it makes
1:50:19
for a really fun conversation. And this conversation was, I really, I
1:50:24
haven't really even checked the timer, and I had no idea that it's already
1:50:27
almost eleven and I've kept you for an hour and forty nine minutes. It
1:50:30
just apply I say this to you every time, and I kind of hope
1:50:32
you just expected this point, But I apologize for keeping you so long.
1:50:36
But just in case you got some more stuff to say, anything else that
1:50:39
you anything you got left in the chamber that you want to get out right
1:50:42
now, the bills, wholesale stuff, league wise stuff, anything that you
1:50:45
haven't gotten to speak on. If you don't, that's fine too as well.
1:50:48
But anything you got left in the chamber, feel free to go,
1:50:51
go for it. Over the past couple of seasons, the Espanation, I
1:50:56
wrote two stories, one about the revival of the run game and then the
1:51:00
other about motion in the NFL. I feel like both of those are going
1:51:03
to start to make their wholesale return to the NFL in twenty twenty four,
1:51:11
just because of again how light teams have played defensively and how much bigger teams
1:51:17
are getting up front. Like I said, the Rams have gotten big upfront.
1:51:21
Think about how many linemen went in the first round of the NFL draft.
1:51:27
Linemen are a hot commodity because you look at the guard market. Guards
1:51:30
are getting paid like tackles. Now. Yeah, the Panthers paid I think
1:51:34
like what three like two hundred million to two guards, crazy money again there.
1:51:42
It is just a fact of life. You don't find a lot of
1:51:45
six four, three hundred and twenty pound people walking around and say, hey,
1:51:49
you want to come play in the NFL. The ones that are already
1:51:54
are playing on a different team. You don't just find those guys on the
1:51:57
street. So those people are coming, hot, come, and a telltale
1:52:00
sign that teams want to get at you. In the rue game, it
1:52:04
is two thousand and six all over again. I wouldn't know what that's like
1:52:09
because I was six years old, but it's two thousand and six all over
1:52:12
again. I love it. It's it again. It just makes sense,
1:52:15
Like you look at that the nature of all of it, like, oh
1:52:19
man, offenses are passing the ball a ton and they're going spread. Oh
1:52:24
man, Like our dudes up front, especially on the interior, are too
1:52:27
slow and they're not getting the QB. So let's get leaner up front.
1:52:30
Let's become more of a one gap penetrating type of like interior to get after
1:52:34
the quarterback. And then if you're an offense, you're like, crap,
1:52:38
these dudes on the inside are just so fast and so quick. Why don't
1:52:42
we get bigger on the interior and just mash the hell out of them and
1:52:45
blow them out of the water when it comes to, you know, the
1:52:47
run game, and then you know, hey, they're built to stop the
1:52:50
pass. Let's just run the football. And that's what so fun about the
1:52:55
swinging of the pendulum back and forth, because no matter what defenses take it
1:53:00
from the offense, then the offense is going to take it back. Defenses
1:53:02
will adjust and take it and then we just keep going back and forth.
1:53:05
It's just a matter of how many years or how intense the control is for
1:53:12
that pendulum offensively and defensively. And yeah, it's a fun time in the
1:53:16
league. As we you know, I think we're I think we're on the
1:53:18
precipice of offenses starting to have the answers for what defenses have done because defense
1:53:25
has been limiting explosives for the past couple of years and really starting to come
1:53:28
to a head in twenty twenty three. I think we're really starting to get
1:53:31
to the point where again offenses are going to go eleven personnel and like spread
1:53:36
passing isn't going to go away. But I think with each consecutive year,
1:53:41
you're going to see heavier personnel, more condensed formations, more emphasis on the
1:53:45
run game. And so I think we're on the prespice of offenses snatching that
1:53:48
pendulum back, which means we're also on the prespaee of defenses having to figure
1:53:54
it out another way. And then we're going to go back to I don't
1:53:57
know, like the early nineties and mid nineties Steelers where they had Levon Kirkland
1:54:00
at linebacker who was like three hundred pounds, And that's what we're gonna see
1:54:03
for football, and it's just gonna be round and round we go on this
1:54:05
circle. Hey, look, Jeremiah Trotter Senior was two hundred and sixty pounds
1:54:13
when he was drafted. Jeremiah Trodden Junior was like two twenty five. That
1:54:16
is the most like telling thing about the styclical nature of football. I truly
1:54:21
cannot wait until we return to the triple option. That would be when I
1:54:27
enjoy football the most, give it to me, and I honestly, when
1:54:30
NCAA comes out, I want to run triple options. So like, I'm
1:54:35
just gonna lead so hard into like nineteen forties football, the Jamie Chadwell like
1:54:42
Liberty Pistol triple option bro my favorite offense in football. I'll either be running
1:54:47
that or I will just go full on North Dakota State or like Utah and
1:54:53
I'm running duo at your face. I love it. I love that so
1:54:57
much. I have a conversation with myself every day of what college I'm going
1:55:00
to pick and where, Like I need to have weather involved, I need
1:55:04
to have snow games come November and December. I usually like a team that
1:55:09
plays in the conference that has a championship game, so that influences. But
1:55:12
I don't want to be a good team. I want to take someone to
1:55:14
build them from nothing, like I'm my in my FC twenty four franchise.
1:55:17
Like I'm looting, I'm looting town. Like that's the type of vibe that
1:55:19
I'm on and what I go for. So man soul, Steve, Steve
1:55:24
comes in. This is the wing tea. Yeah, Like, I just
1:55:26
want to be Super Bowl. Come on, let's let's bring back the wing
1:55:28
tea. I'm already know I'm playing at South Alabama Beautiful Stadium. Got down
1:55:32
there in Mobile five minutes from a cookout. They're an hour from the beach.
1:55:38
This is that's going to be I'm turning South Alabama into the most prominent
1:55:43
Southern football team that the world has ever seen. And it's going to be
1:55:46
all sixty times a game. I like it. And start taking everybody from
1:55:50
that SEC pipeline and bring them all to South Alabama instead of Tuscaloosa and Georgia
1:55:55
and everything. I like it. I like it. I like, man,
1:55:58
all this is funny. From reversaid, Pizza wings beer is the best
1:56:00
triple option. Hey, look, as long as you run in the triple,
1:56:05
whatever your triple is, it's fine. You just need a triple pizza
1:56:09
pizza as the dive. Man. Come on, That's that's real football right
1:56:13
there. That's that's back when we were, back when we were a proper
1:56:15
country. Oh you had one of my favorite tweets ever, and I think
1:56:18
it blew up for you back during the season. I think, like Army
1:56:23
ran some like yeah it was like why cross or something. I'm like,
1:56:27
what happened to football? But what happened to us? Like what I knew
1:56:31
it was? You're it was. You tweeted it and I commented on it
1:56:36
like three or four minutes in and I just did some generic comment of like
1:56:42
we used to be a proper country or like something like that. And I
1:56:45
knew your tweet blew up because I looked at my phone like an hour later
1:56:49
and my comment had like three hundred likes, and I was like, what
1:56:54
is going on? And then I went to your tweet and your tweet was
1:56:57
at like one point five thousand likes, and it was just oh, but
1:57:00
it was so spun on and that's what we need to be. Back to
1:57:02
the triple option and the wing tea, like we're just going to Paul Brown
1:57:05
type of offense South Alabama. Whoever I'm going to be. I don't know
1:57:11
this, man. I guess sit and talk to you for forever. I
1:57:14
think we always go along because well, at least I hope the conversation is
1:57:16
fun and engaging for you and myself. This is awesome. I know the
1:57:19
chat, liked it. I'm gonna remove the banner that shows who you are
1:57:24
and your Twitter handle and anything and everything. The floor is yours. You've
1:57:28
already plugged some of your work, which is genuinely tremendous. If you folks
1:57:30
have not read JP stuff on SB Nation, it's really how I got accustomed
1:57:35
to his work. In addition to the Twitter stuff like you are one of
1:57:39
the best follows on Twitter from an engagement and an entertaining perspective. Granted,
1:57:43
a lot of the things you like are sports and wrestling and anime, which
1:57:45
is all up my alley. But the way you attack the game and break
1:57:48
down the game in the written form on shows on Twitter, you just absolutely
1:57:54
crush it. I genuinely think you're one of the best follows on Twitter,
1:57:57
not just for in general, but especially for football. Tell everybody who they
1:58:00
are, what you do, Where they can find you. The floor is
1:58:02
yours, anything and everything you got to shoot your shop of course, I'm
1:58:06
Jpacatta. You can find me at Espanation, where I've been told I'm the
1:58:11
only person who can write in depth football stories in the same week as writing
1:58:15
about comparing anime, comparing NBA players to anime anime characters, and writing about
1:58:21
rat beefs and how to connect that good sports. I have a couple of
1:58:27
fun stories hopefully coming out this week. One of them is going to be
1:58:30
a bit more in depth talking about football. The other one I am interviewing
1:58:32
my brother about who would win the basketball game YouTube or Lebron James. So
1:58:38
be on the lookout for those things, but just follow along see what I'm
1:58:42
doing. I love that. That's like the best that is. If ever
1:58:45
there was a microcosm or like encapsulation of like who you are and what you
1:58:50
do that nailed it. I'm going to DM you shortly after I close up
1:58:55
shop here with this episode and apologize you profusely for keeping you for too long.
1:58:59
But I enjoyed the hell out of this conversation. You crushed it again.
1:59:03
You were on the forefront of my brain with having it, and this
1:59:05
was everything that I hoped it would be. Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday
1:59:10
night, all fifty eight minutes of it, because we're at eleven oh two
1:59:13
eastern PM right now. I appreciate the hell out of you. Godspeed now
1:59:16
see in the Twitter verse thanks for having me later minute. Absolutely tremendous.
1:59:25
I love JP every time he's able to come on the show. We engage
1:59:28
on Twitter a bunch and interact there. But he truly is absolutely tremendous.
1:59:31
I'm gonna throw up the band of this as tootles, folks, because I
1:59:34
think we're gonna wind down here on this episode. If you have not already,
1:59:38
please please please think you drop alike. On this video. It goes
1:59:41
a sincerely long way towards help myself in the entire team to track and trend
1:59:44
in front of more eyes and ears. So if you're watching on YouTube,
1:59:47
please please think you drop alike on this video. Also for you folks if
1:59:51
you live in the Buffalo area, get yourself some one By Pizza genuinely the
1:59:54
best pizza in Buffalo, New York. Sweet sauce, pie cup and char
1:59:57
pepperoni. A great cheese is sauce ratio. So the crust is good,
2:00:00
the dough is good. It's not too You can get well done if you
2:00:04
want, but it's just a good consistency. They make their own homemade blue
2:00:08
cheese. They have catering options, they have breakfast pizza. They just crush
2:00:12
everything and anything when it comes to food and when it comes to the pizza
2:00:15
game. They also do a lot of good for the community with their initiatives
2:00:17
and drives, parting with Roswell, the SPCA, Toys for Tots, the
2:00:21
Alzheimer's Foundation. They do a lot of good and great stuff for Buffalo aside
2:00:25
from just providing great food. So go get yourself some one Pi Pizza again
2:00:30
throwing up that banner. As we start to wind down here, appreciate all
2:00:33
the kind words coming through in the chat. Greatly appreciate that again, drop
2:00:36
Alke. If you are here on YouTube, please churn on notifications for the
2:00:40
Disguised Coverage playlist and subscribe to the cover one channel as a whole. If
2:00:44
you are listening on one of the podcasting apps or platforms, that's cool as
2:00:46
well. Please rate and review and subscribe on Apple Podcasts and or Spotify.
2:00:51
Reviews and subscriptions are tremendously, tremendously helpful, especially if it's genuine feedback,
2:00:57
but even if not, I'll take a good five star review and a and
2:01:00
all that kind of stuff. Tell your family and friends and loved ones about
2:01:02
this show and about how awesome it is. If you thought this show was
2:01:05
terrible, tell your enemies about it and try and make them watch this show
2:01:11
and ruin their day with it. I appreciate everybody who tuned in live.
2:01:14
I know we're starting to get into the dead time of the offseasons, so
2:01:15
thank you very much to all the live viewers who tuned in the engagement with
2:01:19
each other, with the engagement with myself, with myself and JP. Thank
2:01:23
you for the kind words for myself and for JP. Thank you very much
2:01:26
to mister Jpacosta for riding with me nearly an entire full two hours on this
2:01:30
episode. Honestly, we probably could have gone even longer with this conversation.
2:01:33
There's so much to it, but I hope you know we gave you folks
2:01:38
the in depth and detailed look at this Bill's offense within the larger backdrop and
2:01:43
frame of the conversation when it comes to the league wide trends offensively and defensively,
2:01:47
and where the game of football is going and how the Bills fit into
2:01:50
that in twenty twenty four and beyond. Thank you for everyone who tuned in
2:01:56
live or post live. Please rate and review and subscribe, drop likes all
2:02:00
that kind of stuff. Sal got to write in the comments. The blueberries
2:02:01
are always right, every single time, equal amount of blueberries in each muffin.
2:02:05
I appreciate anyone and everyone who watched this episode live, post live,
2:02:10
if you listen to it, downloaded it, whatever, have you, Any
2:02:14
kind words are greatly appreciated. Again, tell your family and friends and loved
2:02:16
ones. Word of mouth is always a tremendous way to help the show and
2:02:19
brand grow and prosper. Thank you again to mister j. Pacosta. Join
2:02:24
myself and Eric Turner Tomorrow Night Live seven pm Eastern in the Cover one Film
2:02:29
Room as we break down Bill's rookie running back, Ray Davis, his skill
2:02:31
set, his traits, and what he will bring to the Bills offense in
2:02:34
twenty twenty four. So I'll either see you in the film room tomorrow night,
2:02:39
or I will see you next Tuesday, nine pm Eastern for another episode
2:02:42
of Disguise Coverage. I hope you and your family and friends and loved ones
2:02:45
are all doing well and staying safe. Be kind to one another, take
2:02:48
care of one another. I'll see you when I see it, and as
2:02:50
always, go Bills. Oh no, I forgot godspeed and as always go Bills.