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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Big Banks Warn: MASSIVE Relief Rally! + Stock Market News 11 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: We've got the Tesla news, we've got inflation data out, we've got Wall Street saying there is an amazing opportunity ahead of us.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand all of that and more in the next 20 minutes or so.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: So stick around, smash the you-know-what ask questions.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I'll do my utmost to answer them all and let's dive straight in there.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: We go Strong feelings on the Tesla story there.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Okay, we'll dive into that in a moment.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Drew, I'll give you my perspective on that and I'll also give you Wall Street's perspective on that, because we actually have data points which I think are going to blow your socks off.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So, first off, ppi producer price inflation.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Yes, it really really matters, especially after the high inflation data yesterday.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: This data has just come in lower than expected.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Whoopie, do dee da.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: 0% PPI.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: We were expecting it to be 0.1%, to be 0.2% last week, so that's wonderful news.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Core PPI came in as expected at 0.2, which is very, very, very good news.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: And ex-food, energy and trade.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure what's left, but anyway, it's down, it's down, it's down, and that's a good thing.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Right, we do get a 10 o'clock out consumer sentiment expectations.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: That actually does matter and also the consumer inflation expectations, but also really matter.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: So watch out for those.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: But the morning kicking off quite nicely there not perhaps for Tesla investors, but we'll get to that story in just a minute.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Now Goldman Sachs is basically telling us this and this is really important.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: They're saying, okay, there are concerns around too much AI spending.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: There are concerns around is the interest rate going to go up down sideways, round and round, and what the heck's going to happen in the US election.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: So these are three kind of uncertainties out there and that's what's dragging the market down.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: And the market is indeed pricing in less rate cuts for this year.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: We had this drop there in green, that there in green, but we are pricing in more rate cuts in 2025.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: It just means the party is slightly postponed, but it's still happening.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: There will be a wedding.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's just been kicked back by a month for whatever reason.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: So the overall rate cut expectations actually haven't really changed all that much.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: They just pushed back a little bit, which means the party will come just a little bit later.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So just confused that Kevin says jump out of bed.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: It's 9 am.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Is he still waiting on the stream or something Weird.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I thought we were live.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: What Goldman Sachs are saying next and these are kind of the smart investment bankers out there they're saying, as we move beyond the earnings season kicking off today and we'll talk about that as well the US election, 5th of November and the FOMC minutes meetings over the next few weeks we Goldman.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: The Goldman expects a relaxation to lead to a tailwind for stocks, which is another way of saying you know, moon, if that was a rocket, you get the idea Looks more like a firecracker, doesn't it?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying, yes, we have to get through this dip of earnings and election and all of that, but the rally will come and when it comes, everyone's going to be like, oh, I didn't see that one coming right and going to miss it.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So I think that's important.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to show you Goldman Sachs' actual trades.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: They put out like 25 trades that they like for right now.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: And then we're going to get into the Tesla story, which seems to be what everyone's talking about in the chat here.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: How do I buy more at 200,?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Kevin, well, put options, maybe sell some.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: But I've got something else rather exciting to share with you.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: At least I think it's very exciting.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Imagine if you knew how to spot stocks before they break out, before they really go up.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: This is a trade I've got on on FOA Probably never heard of it, right.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: It's a random little finance stock.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: It broke out here, right, and it's up 58% in 14 days.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be nice to know how to spot that point, because there is a rule to it.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's four rules.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: You put them together, it becomes one rule.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Or imagine never holding a stock that's collapsing.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Any of you PayPal investors out there, you might have bought a bit up here, a bit up there, a bit up there.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: And then, as it collapsed, you kept buying because somebody told you, oh, if you loved it at whatever it was $300, you'll love it even more at $200.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: And then, as it collapsed, you kept buying because somebody told you, oh, if you loved it at whatever it was $300, you'll love it even more at $200.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: And then it went to $100.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: And you told yourself, well, I loved it at $300.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Must be an amazing stock at $100.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: And you had this whole misery period.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Then add to that about a year and a half of the stock going absolutely nowhere, tying up all your money, and you're getting bugger all returns and then probably most people sell about there.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Why they give up?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: They get frustrated and guess what?
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: That's exactly the point before we break out, tesla's up 25%.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: But it doesn't actually have to be that way.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: There is actually a rule book that goes back to the 1970s and it's completely unchanged and it's well.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit tweaked to change how the market works, but essentially it's very, very much the same thing, and I'll show you how.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Let me draw a little line here, if I may.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I'll draw a little green line here.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: You see, at the top here we sort of went sideways a little bit.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: We had this low, that low and that low, and if you had simply drawn a line on your chart and connected those well, you certainly would have exited there.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: If you're a bit more cautious, you probably would have gotten out at the top there or even there.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: And why is it predictable?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Because you broke through a certain moving average line.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Volume absolutely spiked on the collapse of the stock and our momentum indicator absolutely collapsed down here.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: So there was really no reason at all for anybody to go through this.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: And then that, if they just knew the rules.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Problem is, people don't trade with rules, people don't even invest with rules, and this applies to traders and stock investors absolutely alike.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do that, I've recorded a 35-minute or so masterclass.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Maybe a bit of a grandiose title for it, but I'll walk you through it.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: I'll give you the actual rules.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So if you want to come and learn them, you can literally watch it straight after this it's not live, you just watch it back.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Go to felixfriendsorg, slash, get free and you learn the four patterns that make up the stock market and how to spot them and how to therefore beat the market, which is really what we're all about.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: What we're all about.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: So see the link down below in the description felixfrenzgetfree and after this video, go and watch it.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that's my little announcement.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I'm very excited by that because we're going to launch something really, really, really cool there at the end of this month, and I'm super excited by it.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: No options, no margin accounts, nothing complicated.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It's the simplest thing you could ever do to make money, which is what I do to make money I've done for years.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So back to Goldman Sachs, and then we're going to go over to Tesla.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Of course, you might want to take a screenshot of this.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: This is Tesla's sorry Goldman Sachs' list of companies where they think they have the most upside during earnings season.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So it starts with Gap here Citigroup, merck, adt, dell, broadcom, nvidia, snowflake, Toast.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Take a screenshot of it, if you like, because we're going to move on and then these are the ones that they hate.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: It might also be interesting to take a screenshot of that, like Upstart, for example, or Clorox, unless we we get a pandemic.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So I think that's hopefully quite useful.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to run through them all.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: You do take a screenshot and I'll go back up again.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: You can take another one.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: There we go and snap and you can run through those in your own time.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Now I want to talk a little bit about tesla, and, yeah, we're definitely working on a video to really go into the nitty gritty of this.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: But let's dive into some numbers here.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: This is from, I want to say, citigroup, but I might be wrong on that.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: No, it's Goldman Sachs.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: There we go, goldman Sachs, which is probably slightly better data in that case, and this is the RoboTaxi opportunity.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Now, if you saw the RoboTaxi, I thought it looked rather snazzy.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Do we have a?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Did I take a?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: If you just go on X, you'll be littered with pictures of the bloody thing.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I also while it was live.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: That's the sort of bus that they put out, which I think looks rather cool.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: But what was the first picture I took of the thing?
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: There it is, that's Elon getting into one, no steering wheel, inside, nothing.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: And then the inside looks like this there we go, you just sit in the middle and you select your destination and then it takes you there.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I actually think this screen is also a massive revenue opportunity, but we'll get into that in a moment and then it literally just takes you there.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So it looks kind of cool.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I think it looks very, very cool.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: And the next thing is robots, and we won't dive into too much detail there today.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: But have I had a beard surfed to you by a robot with a cowboy hat on?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Very, very, very cool stuff.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And then he says he does a little victory V sign for the selfie.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: So this is a whole new.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, elon described it as.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: What did he say?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: He said I took a screenshot of it Somewhere, somewhere.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: He basically said it's the biggest product ever.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: So what about the numbers then?
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: What about the numbers, my friend?
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: You don't think anyone's going to buy the bus.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be the new limo my friend and I think.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Do you know how many electric buses BYD is selling in the US?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Quite a lot Around the world loads, paris, la, south California.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: They're bloody everywhere.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So Tesla can do the same thing.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a good idea.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Swabia, you forget your free video is not playing, maybe because you're playing this video.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Do you think that could be it?
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: You can't handle two videos.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Maybe Try it in another browser.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: If that doesn't work, swabia, drop me an email and we'll fix it for you.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, robo-taxi opportunity, right.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So let's just sort of say the average trip cost is $15.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: And then you've got well, how many trips per day?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: 5,000 or 100,000, or a million.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: So just sort of go into the middle here, say 100,000 robo-taxi trips.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Go into the middle here, say 100,000 robo-taxi trips and no buffering.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, my Wi-Fi people who have a late cable.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: They reset my account, apparently, or my connection, which is brilliant.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So say 100,000 trips a day at $15,.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: That is a $10 billion revenue opportunity for Tesla.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: It's not bad, right.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Now what if you got a million robo-taxis in operation, sort of the end game, right.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: And the average trip, by that point, say, costs $25.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Well, now you get somewhere $100 to $182 billion in revenue Pretty extraordinary, right.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: If the average trip cost was $35, you'd go from sort of 150 to 255 billion in revenue.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: That's pretty extraordinary.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: What's Tesla's revenue right now?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Tesla revenue 25 billion a quarter, 100 billion a year, say, right.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So this could very, very reasonably double revenue and, of course, the margins are going to be far better.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Now Elon said you can buy them, so Tesla wouldn't necessarily own them all.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: They could start a finance subsidiary that buys the cars and then runs them and makes a 90% margin.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: That's probably a pretty good, decent business model.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: But he's basically saying Uber drivers could buy a bunch of them, buy five or 10, and then run them as a fleet and maintain them, which is a reasonable business idea for somebody who wants to.