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Fed Under Siege📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The FED is under siege, and today we'll break it
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: down for you guys. Let's just jump right into what
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Kobeees broke over the weekend. FED Chair Power respond to
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: a federal prosecutor opening a criminal investigation into him. And
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: of course this is all around the charges as a
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: consequence of him talking to Congress about the cost that
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: it was taking to do some improvements over at the
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: FED building. So the chair came out with a two
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: minute response video. This is extremely rare for something like
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: this one to happen on the weekend, and too for
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: us to see this quick response. Going into this, I
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: want to go into a clip that goes through the
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: recap over the weekend. Take a look.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: So these subpoenas were probably found on Friday. The FED
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: could have easily just gone, you know what, we'll park this,
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: We'll keep you this under rapp so we're not going
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: to tell anybody about it. No, that's not what they did.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Sunday night. Bombshell pals out. He's delivered this video message.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: He's come out swinging. This is an angry FED chair.
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  Speaker 2: You can see that he is determined to make sure
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: that he is going to be up for the fight.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: He is clearly worried that the FED independence is at risk.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: His term is going to come to an end. He
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  Speaker 2: could stay on the board until twenty twenty eight. I
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  Speaker 2: think that would make it that would obviously make it
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  Speaker 2: harder for the Trump administration to influence policy on the FMC.
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  Speaker 3: Chairman Powell is the worst FED chaff since Arthur Burns,
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  Speaker 3: and he is the poster child for politicizing to FED.
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  Speaker 3: The only reason why he's still lair is because he
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  Speaker 3: papered over the fiscal irresponsibility of Joe.
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  Speaker 4: Biden Jerome Powell to be the next chairman of the
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  Speaker 4: Federal Reserve.
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  Speaker 5: Is there anything in it that is suggestive that he
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: was not truthful? President Trump overnight said he knew nothing
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: about the Justice Department's investigation into the Federal Reserve chair
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  Speaker 5: Jerrold Powell, But.
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  Speaker 2: Just two weeks ago he said the opposite.
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  Speaker 6: To prove a lying charge, you don't just have to
• 1:45
  Speaker 6: have a misstatement or a contradiction in testimony. You have
• 1:47
  Speaker 6: to have evidence that someone acted with corrupt intent that
• 1:50
  Speaker 6: they meant to lie. And the danger here for the
• 1:53
  Speaker 6: Department of Justice is they investigate here and they end
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  Speaker 6: up coming up empty and that could cause them two problems,
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  Speaker 6: one public embarrassment. That's the risk here is that they'll
• 2:01
  Speaker 6: end up bringing a case that they can't actually get
• 2:04
  Speaker 6: a conviction on.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: All right, because so a couple of things to break
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  Speaker 1: down within that one. As I first do agree that
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: the FED should stay independent, always should be independent. I
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: don't necessarily think there should be a FED, but an
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  Speaker 1: independent FED should we have one? Is the case in
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: point here. And I don't necessarily agree that if they
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: come up empty, they should always investigate any kind of
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: issues that is skirting the line, whether it was a
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: mistake by Powell or an inaccuracy that could easily be proved,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: and then sure, he's off the case.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: But the real.
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  Speaker 1: Issue is is this being politically charged? I think that's
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  Speaker 1: the real question. Is it a tip for tat type
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  Speaker 1: situation where Trump administration and what Chair Palell has been
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  Speaker 1: doing in this administration going forward? The question now is
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  Speaker 1: he out of the FED board completely? Here's a poly
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: market kind of breaks it down right now, it's a
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent chance. But it was up as high
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: on January eleventh as or actually what was the date
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: on this, Yeah, it was up as high as seventy
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: three percent response came in, so I started dropping. Likelihood
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: is that Chair Palell may still be on the FED
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: board through his tenure of twenty twenty eight. Let me
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: know in the comments if you think he should stick around.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Is this a situation where Trump will just force him
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  Speaker 1: out through just a barrage of these kind of tactics.
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  Speaker 1: This is a very big deal going forward, one so
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: much so that there is a lot of pundits that
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: are starting to respond to this. Here's Anthony's Karamochi talking
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: about Trump's tactics. Take a look.
• 3:32
  Speaker 7: Well, listen, I've listened to the commentary this morning, but
• 3:35
  Speaker 7: I'm going to take a contrary in view. I think
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  Speaker 7: the President has already won this. He's his messaging is
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  Speaker 7: very clear. I'm going to be the next FED chair.
• 3:44
  Speaker 7: That's okay with the markets. You know, we are listening
• 3:47
  Speaker 7: to punitry say that the markets want FED independence, But
• 3:52
  Speaker 7: the market's not telling you that.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: While he was getting his rate cuts, you're arguing, is
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: he just wanted a faster pace, He just wants to
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: get to one quicker then we might have otherwise.
• 4:01
  Speaker 7: Oh yes, I think I think it's a combination of things.
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  Speaker 7: I think if you if you send out this message
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  Speaker 7: that the there's a potential indictment coming for the FED chair.
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  Speaker 7: It's a way to scapecoat Jerome pal as it relates
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  Speaker 7: to affordability, and it's a way to also put pressure
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  Speaker 7: on his success or whoever that may be, that you're
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  Speaker 7: going to play by my rules, and my rules are
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  Speaker 7: very different from any of the rules up until now.
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  Speaker 7: I think that's the real message.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So interesting tank by Anthony there, because if
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  Speaker 1: that is the you know, the move that President Trump
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is trying to make, and the market hasn't responded that
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: way to Anthony Scaramoci's point is concerning a little bit
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: in terms of how this plays, and I think he
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: is right in the sense that it pretty much puts
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: out a big message to the next FED chair. It
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  Speaker 1: also puts out a big message to the world of
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  Speaker 1: how the FED is going to be operating here the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: US Central Bank going forward, and of course if Trump
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: is in control of the FED, that changes things very
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  Speaker 1: quick in the market. I don't know how this plays out, guys,
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  Speaker 1: but it's going to be very very important to keep
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: an eye on this. Now. The real question is is
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  Speaker 1: how does Powell fare within this. This is a clip
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  Speaker 1: that kind of talks a little bit about the popularity
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  Speaker 1: of Powell, because the narrative is going to be very
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: important as he starts to go against these charges. Take
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  Speaker 1: a look, how important do the American people think that is.
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  Speaker 5: They think it's incredibly important that the FED acts independently
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  Speaker 5: of Donald Trump, and they think it's best for the economy.
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  Speaker 5: We're talking about more than two thirds of adults, sixty
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  Speaker 5: eight percent, ninety one percent of Democrats, seventy five percent
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  Speaker 5: of independence, and even forty one percent two fifths of
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  Speaker 5: Trump's base thinks it's important that the FED acts independently
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  Speaker 5: of Trump for the best of the economy. So when
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  Speaker 5: you get forty one percent of Republicans and ninety one
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  Speaker 5: percent of Democrats are on something with seventy five percent
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: of independence, you know it is a popular position. Donald
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  Speaker 5: Trump is losing the political fight to Jerome Powell. I mean,
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  Speaker 5: you could just see it right here, and net approval
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: rating per gallop in December, Trump comes in at negative
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  Speaker 5: twenty three points and then an approval rating way way
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  Speaker 5: way underwater. Jerome Powell not the most popular guy in
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  Speaker 5: the world, but at minus three points, he's actually the
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  Speaker 5: most popular guy that gallop pulled of any any of
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  Speaker 5: the politicians, any of the folks in government. He is
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: far more popular than Donald Trump.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So, as our crypto team call likes to call Papa Powell,
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  Speaker 1: he is the guy that kind of settles the market
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  Speaker 1: most of the time. And we're going to find out
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  Speaker 1: at the end of this month, on the first f
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  Speaker 1: or the first FOMC meeting of the year, most likely
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  Speaker 1: we're going to see a pause. I'd love to see
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  Speaker 1: what you guys think. Do we get a pause? Well,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs says they expect the FED to deliver only
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: two ray cuts this year, and that would be in
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  Speaker 1: June after his term in September. Each of course would
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: be prior to the four cast of cuts in March
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: and June of this year. So this is an issue.
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  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily agree with this. I do think we'll
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  Speaker 1: see more than two cuts, mainly because of what we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing on inflation, and that's only if inflation can continuance
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  Speaker 1: downward trend and the slowing in the job loss numbers.
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  Speaker 1: That's another factor that we'll play into this as well. Granted,
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  Speaker 1: many of these jobs numbers that are coming in are
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  Speaker 1: being retraced back downward. I get that, but that has
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: been the problem with a lot of our BLS data
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  Speaker 1: for almost ever, including Bideneer's and even before that and
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  Speaker 1: the Trump years. So how this holds out is a
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  Speaker 1: big deal. He is going to get a lot of
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  Speaker 1: backing though the Bank of Canada governor is behind him.
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  Speaker 1: I think he has a lot of friends in the
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  Speaker 1: Central bank circles, especially at Davos and WEF which is
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: going to be coming up. He's going to get a
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  Speaker 1: chance to basically create a little bit of pressure maybe
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  Speaker 1: through some of these other organizations that can help maybe
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  Speaker 1: defend against the Trump administration. But with all that said, Kyle,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: she has the whole point of whether or not he'll
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  Speaker 1: be charged with a federal crime right now. And this
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  Speaker 1: is Jerome Powell, Tim Walls, Lisa Cook or Barack Obama,
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  Speaker 1: and they've got Pale at the top right now at
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  Speaker 1: fifty three percent on a federal crime. Now, again, that's
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  Speaker 1: the cow she pulled, But it's the point that the
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  Speaker 1: market is watching very closely. Fed decision still holds January
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  Speaker 1: twenty eighth on a pause. You go into March still
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  Speaker 1: holding very high on a pause at sixty seven sixty
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  Speaker 1: eight percent, and even into the April meeting, the pause
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  Speaker 1: is still holding it a sixty eight percent seventy one percent. Again,
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  Speaker 1: this will continue, I think, to push the crypto market
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  Speaker 1: sideways or down if we continue to see this kind
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  Speaker 1: of hold. Now, the real question again goes back to inflation.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: We can see those numbers come down, we might see
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a lift in the market in general,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: but it all really depends on what the Fed is
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  Speaker 1: going to do right now. And one of the points
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  Speaker 1: that you have to consider right here, this is best
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  Speaker 1: warning President Trump that this investigation into chair Pale is
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: a mess and it could hurt financial markets. Now, maybe
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Trump backs away from this. I don't know. Do you
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: think he would back away from this, because he's already
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: said I don't know much about it. He's kind of
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: distanced himself a little bit. Maybe he is listening to
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Bessett when it comes to that last clip. I want
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  Speaker 1: to hit on because this is another factor that plays
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  Speaker 1: into this. This is Rocanna talking about we could have
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: had more cuts had we not had tariffs.
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  Speaker 4: Take a look, the Trump administration has crossed the Rubican
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  Speaker 4: by the way. The only reason he isn't lowering interest
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  Speaker 4: rates is because of Trump's irrational economic policy. It's Trump's
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  Speaker 4: blanket tariffs that have forced Jeroam Pal's hand. He would
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: have lowered interest rates months ago if Trump didn't jack
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  Speaker 4: up the price on food and rent and housing with
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: irrational tariffs. But what Trump is doing threatens the very
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: economic fabriak of this country.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: All right, So the point in summary is that we
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: need an independent FED. Yes, yeah, I would love to
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: see rates come down. I agree that I think with
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: slowing inflation that they should. Now Chair Palell is maybe
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: looking at other data. I'm not necessarily privy to that.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: But what I am privy to is the fact that
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I am talking to people for the first time this year,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: finally in the c suites of some of the biggest
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: hiring companies out there, that they are slowing the job cuts,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: meaning they are not cutting as many jobs they're looking
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: at possibly adding but not yet. That tells me that
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the job position might be stabilizing. And those are the
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  Speaker 1: two mandates by the FED stabilize the labor market and
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: control inflation, both of which appear to be in play.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So has the chair actually done his job? And why
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: would he not cut rates. Think about that. If you
• 10:58
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• 11:01
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• 11:05
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