Latest / Pod Save America / "Evening Joe."

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"Evening Joe." · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: On today's show, Joe Biden has a surprisingly good time
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: at his State of the Union address by shooting down
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Republican hecklers like they were a Chinese balloon. Then Democratic
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: strategist Michael Podhorzer stops by to discuss what the midterm
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: results can teach us about 2024. And later, House Republicans
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: take on the people's business in their first big oversight
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: hearing that asks the question, what did Twitter know about
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Hunter Biden's laptop and when did they know it? But first,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: we are very excited to announce the return of Stuck
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: with Damon Young. an original podcast from Crooked and Spotify.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: The award-winning author is back for more off-the-cuff conversations inspired
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: by today's most culturally relevant headlines and roundups of Damon-approved
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: listener-submitted questions. He's joined by some of the brightest minds
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and bold voices of the Black community, including Kiese Lehman,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Roy Wood Jr., Elaine Welteroth, Nicole Hannah-Jones, and more. The
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: trailer is live right now, and the first episode drops
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: on February 16th. Listen to Stuck with Damon Young for
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: free only on Spotify. Before we start, we also want
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: to thank everyone who donated or organized in Pennsylvania for
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: the special elections that were held this week. A lot
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: of VSA folks helped out on this one. Three statehouse
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: seats were up for grabs and Democrats won all of them.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And the reason this is such a big deal is
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: because Democrats are now officially in control of the Pennsylvania
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: statehouse for the first time in more than a decade.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: and can work with Governor Josh Shapiro to enact a
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: more progressive agenda for the state. So thanks to everyone
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: who's part of the Vote Save America community who helped
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: out for that. It's a big deal. All right, let's
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: get to the news. President Biden is barnstorming the country
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: this week after delivering a malarkey free State of the
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Union on Tuesday night that lasted 72 minutes and framed
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: his expected reelection bid as a contest between a bipartisan
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: leader who fights for working people and an unserious party
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: that's been captured by out-of-touch extremists, an argument that some
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Republicans helped him make by heckling the president for telling
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the truth about what they've proposed. We'll get to that later.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Biden focused most of the speech on the economy, both
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the progress we've made under his presidency and the work
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: left to be done, which he repeatedly punctuated with a
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: phrase that seems tailor-made for a campaign slogan.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: We've been sent here to finish the job. Let's finish
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: the job this time.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Let's finish the job.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Let's finish the job.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Let's finish the job, Dan. Come on. Where's the T-shirts?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Let's get some, where's the merch? What was your first
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: reaction after listening to this speech?
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: I will say going into this speech, I dreaded it.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Not because of Joe Biden. I mean, you and I
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: have been through a lot of state of the unions together.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: It's safe to say we hate them. whether Barack Obama
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: is giving them George W. Bush, Bill, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden. It's just this, the speeches are always kind
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: of the same. We know what the notes are. We
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: know you.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Start anachronistic format.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: It's just, it's restrictive. Some people, half the room applause
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: is half dozen. Kevin McCarthy looks like he ate some
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: bad beans or something while he sits there. It's none
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: of it's great. And I was like, what a way.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: And I even remember when the crooked staff was like,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: you guys want to do a group thread? And I
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: was like, no, but I guess I will. But I
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: have to say it was great. I enjoyed it. Biden
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: did a good job. The speech was, I think, a
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: very politically smart speech. He delivered the shit out of it.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: The heckling was interesting. It was great. I thoroughly enjoyed it.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Exceeded expectations. Good way to spend a Tuesday night.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I wouldn't say that I enjoyed it.
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: I did.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, here's what I think.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Every State of the Union is always one of the
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: most challenging speeches you'll ever have to write. And for presidents,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: one of the most challenging speeches they'll have to give.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: A 72-minute State of the Union that's not a laundry list,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: but actually has a theme and a message that breaks
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: through to people is a monumental achievement. And that's what
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I think the speech was. Because it's really difficult to
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: break through in a State of the Union. And I
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: do think that they succeeded at doing that. my first
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: reaction was that if Joe Biden loses reelection, it will
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: not be because of his message in this speech. He
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: has the message for his reelection.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: What a bold take that is. I mean, Joe Biden
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: loses and won't be for his speech in 2023.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Well, he's got a message. Like he has a very clear,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: politically astute message that he laid out in the speech.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: You know, it's the, it's, he's, it's Scranton Joe. Scranton
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Joe is back. He's, uh, He's fighting to rebuild the
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: American middle class, and he's willing to work with people
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: on that, and he has in the past, and he's
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: also willing to take on people who are standing in
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the way. That's it. That's his message.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: I got a couple questions for you as a writer
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: of many, a State of the Union. One, what do
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: you think have finished the job?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I think all slogans are stupid. So therefore, you lower
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: your expectations on them, and I think You can overthink
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: these things. You have a bunch of consultants in a room.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: They're doing the polling. You need to get middle class
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: in there, right? All this bullshit. You can't overthink it sometimes.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: It makes sense, right? Every president running for election wants
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: some version of finish the job as their slogan. And
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: you know, it's very Biden, right? It's very sort of
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: down to earth. I'm good with it. We had, what
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: was ours? I was looking it up because I forgot
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: what the Obama 2012 one was for a second. Yeah,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I was on that campaign. It clearly was not as
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: memorable as our 08 slogan, right? So it's like, was
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: forward some stroke of genius? No, I don't think so.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: It was fine, it worked. But I think finish the
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: job is great.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's interesting, not because the words finish
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: the job, are somehow going to change the election. You're
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: exactly right. Slogans are stupid. Slogans to say that the
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: unions are particularly stupid. I mean, you remember that in
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: this exact, the speech of this exact junction, our presidency,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: we debuted the monstrosity that was winning the future, a
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: slogan that made it through an entire policy process and
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: multiple focus groups. And no one ever realized that abbreviated
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: to WTF.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: So here's what, so here's where slogans are for. Now
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: that I live out in Los Angeles, every time you'd
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: come here for a fundraiser with a politician, you'd get
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: in a room with a bunch of Hollywood producers and writers,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: and inevitably the first question would be like, why can't
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Democrats have more of a slogan? We have a bunch
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: of writers and producers out here who could help you
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: develop a slogan that actually sticks, that's on a bumper sticker,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: just like the Republicans, because the Republicans are always good
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: at slogans. You always fucking hear that in Los Angeles.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: And that's what I think of when I think about
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: people asking for slogans in 2023.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Here's what I think is interesting about it, though, is,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: putting aside the words, it is an acknowledgement, I think,
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: from Biden that he is in a unique situation. In
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: most cases, presidents are, in this exact point in their presidency,
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: are looking for a way, an argument for why they
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: should be reelected. Biden is coming up with an argument
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: for why he should run for reelection, because of his
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: age and The fact that a lot of people viewed
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: him as a bridge, potentially a one-term bridge. And so
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: now he is, as far as we know, decided to run.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: And the polling shows that even among people who did
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: vote for him and probably will vote for him, there
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: is some skepticism about that. So why me? To finish
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the job I was doing. There was more work for
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: me to do. And I think that's interesting.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he promised to be a bridge to the next
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: generation and that bridge isn't finished.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: Look, some bridges are longer than others. He went across
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and it goes on for fucking forever.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm still going to be the bridge. It's not
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: done yet. I also think he was having fun. He
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: was energetic. He was lively. He enjoyed interacting with the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: people in that chamber, which is saying a lot. He
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: enjoyed it even when they were booing him. He was
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: bigger than his detractors, right, which is important. And I
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: think you know, altogether, he was just, he was a
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: happy warrior and he's always best when he's a happy warrior.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: You sort of, his kind of approach was, oh, you
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: think I might be a little old or maybe not
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: be up to the job? I'll see you assholes stand
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: up here and deliver a speech like this for 72 minutes.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: And I may be old, but these people are fucking crazy. That's,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: that's the, that's the real.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Put that on a bumper. Oh, look, another Hollywood producer
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: came up with a slogan.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So the White House has surely been looking at some
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: of the same polling we all have. Most voters are
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: unhappy with the direction of the country, the economy, and
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: the job that Biden has done as president. Knowing that,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: what do you think they set out to achieve with
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: this speech?
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: Remind people of what he did and what it means
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: and how it's impacted the economy. Which is, I think
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: you could say that about 90% of state of the
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: unions ever delivered. President Biden, because of the... type of
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: presidency that he has decided to have to be a
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: little less in the news necessarily, or the center of
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: the conversation as sort of a response to Trump and perhaps,
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: and because of the media environment he's in, those things
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: are less well-known. The things that are less well-known in
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: part because they weren't controversial. Everyone knew Obama passed healthcare
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: because half the country, sometimes more than half the country
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: hated it. People, the inflation reduction act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: I know this is shocking, but the bipartisan infrastructure bill
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: did not spark an outcry. People didn't have a strong
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: reaction to that. And so he has a lot of
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: non-controversial achievements. And one of the only ways, since the
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: press covers controversy, the only way you can get that
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: known to people is to stand up there and tell them.
• 10:07
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I also think he could have done that in a
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: way that I was worried about, which was just listing
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: off a series of accomplishments. And I think They did
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: a really good job putting the accomplishments in a context
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: that lets people know, I have been fighting for you.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: We're not done yet, and I will continue to fight
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: for you. And he also wanted to remind people not
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: just of what he achieved, but that he cares about them,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: that he's a president who gives a shit about people
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: and always has been. And I think that sort of
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: placing himself as on the side of most people in
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: this country versus... the powerful interests that are standing in
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: their way, whether they be corporations or crazy Republicans, I
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: think was part of the goal of the speech. And
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I think they achieved that really well. You wrote a
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: message box about the speech that focused on Biden's economic agenda,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: which he called a blue collar blueprint to rebuild America.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: What do you think they were trying to do with
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: that branding? Now, it's just a big branding conversation.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: You're in Hollywood. I live kind of near Silicon Valley.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: We're basically do it. We become what we hate. How
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: can Biden get the State of the Union on a
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: bumper sticker? Can you do it in 280 characters, Mr. President?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have to now.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: How do you make this a TikTok?
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Not if he's a subscriber to Twitter Blue. He can
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: write all the fucking words he wants.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: They should just put the State of the Union full
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: thing on Twitter just now to see if it breaks it.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Perfect. Great.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: The reason I wrote a message box post about this
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: is I found it to be very interesting that You
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: and I have talked many times in this podcast about
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: how the existential threat to Democrats, despite all of our
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: recent success, is continued erosion with working class voters, with
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: voters who did not go to college.
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: U.S.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Politics has become more polarized on educational lines. Democrats, a
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: much larger share of our electorate has become college educated.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: A much larger share of the Republican electorate did not
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: go to college. And we could survive in that world
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: when our erosion among voters that didn't go to college
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: was limited only to white voters because the country is
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: getting more diverse.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Barely.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Barely.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: But we could survive.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: We could barely survive. What you really need in an
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: ideal world is less erosion with white non-college voters and
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: sky-high turnout. What you want is what Obama's coalition in
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: 2012 looked like.
• 12:29
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Well, and I will say, just to remind people again,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: about a third of the Democratic coalition, the voters who
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: come to vote for Democrats in the presidential elections and
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: other elections, is non-college educated white people. Still, even with
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: all that erosion, that's still about a third, one in
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: every three voters.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Now, when you remember that we won the election by 40,000
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: votes over a handful of states, you don't want to
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: lose a lot of them, right?
• 12:52
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Exactly. Yeah.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: And then in 2020, we saw erosion for the first
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: time among voters of color who didn't go to college,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: particularly men. And if that trend were to continue, we
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: are doomed. There is no math where we win. It
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: is game over. And Biden, he's been doing this for
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: a while in his presidency, but this is the most
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: high profile way, is to try to center his economic
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: agenda as a specific remedy for the challenges that people
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: without a college education may have in our economy. To
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: rebut the idea that Republicans have very successfully pushed that
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: despite the fact that our economic policies are good for
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: the working class and good for the middle class and
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: much better than Republican policies. that we are somehow a
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: party of elites who look down their nose at people
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: who didn't go to college. And so I think he's
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: very clearly making an attempt to tackle the biggest political
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: problem and the biggest threat we have for 2024. And that,
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: you know, you can quibble about whether you like blue
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: collar blueprint or whatever, but I think the strategy underneath
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: it is very, very interesting and absolutely essential.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I also think that he executed that strategy in the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: speech in an interesting way. It wasn't just about him
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: reciting policies that would help. blue collar workers. Like he, he,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: when he got to, we talked about the infrastructure bill, which,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: you know, us very online libs tend to roll our
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: eyes over, right? Not very exciting. You, you just did
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: earlier about the infrastructure bill, the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: I roll my eyes at bipartisanship. I fucking love a road. Okay.
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: You, okay, good, good, good. And same thing when people
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: talk about the heartland or politicians talk about blue collar America,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: there's a tendency for, you know, us, us online libs
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: to roll our eyes. But he, during that section of
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: the speech, he tells the story about finally fixing the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Brent Spence Bridge that's between Ohio and Kentucky, two states
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that he did not win. And the person he points
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: out to illustrate the story is this young black woman
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: who's a member of the local iron workers. And he
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: talks about how she's really proud to rebuild this bridge.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: And I think it's part of the strategy is Biden
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: showing that he cares about people, whoever they are, wherever
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: they are. whoever they vote for, like it doesn't matter, right?
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: It's not one demographic that he's trying to win over
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: or one place in the country or he's just trying
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: to help Democrats or just grow the Democratic coalition. Like
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: what he's trying to do is be a president for
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: all Americans wherever you are. And I think he's also
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: trying to say that this group of people in the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: country who don't have a college degree and are in
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: the heartland and have been watching jobs move away and
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: have seen their communities hollowed out it's not just the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: white working class people that the New York Times talks
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: to in the Pennsylvania Diner that have become the stereotype.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: It's folks of color. It's people who are in suburbs.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: It's people who are in exurbs. It's people all over
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the place. It's most of the country. It's most of
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the country. And I think he did that really well
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: in the speech.
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: There's two versions of this appeal. There's one that does
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: not work, which is, when we just try to grab
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: voters by the lapel and say, don't you know that
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: our policies help you?
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: You're voting against your economic interests.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: You make minimum wage. We're going to double the minimum wage.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Do you hate money, person? That is a very typical
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: way of doing it. And then there's this other sense
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: that the only way to live a good life in
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: America is to have gone to college and had a
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: white collar job. And Biden is doing something very different here.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: He is using his policies as a proxy to say
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: that it all– it doesn't have to be college or failure.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: There are lots of different career paths in America and
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: I'm going to support those as well. I think it's–
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: he is very constitutionally set up to do that. That's
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: the Scranton. That's the parts of Delaware that he grew
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: up in. That's his community. That's the way he relates
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: to his dad. I think we're going to see that
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: be a big part of this campaign. It's not– this
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: is not going to upend the demographic move in this
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: country over the last 50 years. But it's on the margins, right?
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Can you pick up some voters who are disillusioned by
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Republicans or who maybe see Joe Biden differently because you
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: communicated with them in this way? Like we said, 40,000
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: votes doesn't take a lot to make sure that he
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: wins reelections. I think it's really important.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: And by the way, this is what most people in
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the country care about, right? Like you sit down in
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: focus groups with people from any region, any state, any
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: demographic group. They'll start talking about the cost of living.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: It's the first thing they'll talk about. It's the most
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: important thing on most people's minds. All right. So the
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: most memorable part of the speech was the impromptu call
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: and response that briefly turned the U.S. Congress into the
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: House of Commons. It all started when Biden mentioned the
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Republican plan to hold the debt limit hostage. Let's take
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: a listen.
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans,
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset. I'm
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: not saying it's the majority. Let me give you, anybody
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: who doubts it, contact my office.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: I'll give you a copy.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: I'll give you a copy of the proposal. That means
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Congress doesn't vote. Well, I'm glad to see you. I
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: tell you, I enjoy conversion. You know, it means if
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Congress doesn't keep the programs the way they are, they'd
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: go away. Other Republicans say, I'm not saying it's the
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: majority of you. I don't even think it's even a significant...
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: But it's being proposed by individuals. I'm not politely not
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: naming them, but it's being proposed by some of you. So, folks,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: as we all apparently agree, Social Security and Medicare is
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: off the books now.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: I'm politely not naming folks.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Call my office. I love it.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Call my office. First of all, do we need one
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: of these for this?
• 18:48
  Speaker 6: Red Hen. Disability alert. Red Hen. Instability alert. Paging Chuck Todd.
• 18:56
  Speaker 6: Paging Chuck Todd. Chip O'Neill. Ronald Reagan. You are needed
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: with a bourbon in the West Wing.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Red pen.
• 19:04
  Speaker 6: Red pen.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: It always goes on a little longer than you want
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: it to.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, we... This joke is so old that the
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: person at the center of it is not the governor
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: of Arkansas delivering the standing unit response. You know what?
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I like it. I think people yelling at a State
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: of the Union and then Joe Biden being able to
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: slap it, this is great. It reminds me of, speaking
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: of being old, remember when Obama went to the House
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Republican retreat to basically debate them about the health care
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: bill back in, what, 2009?
• 19:41
  Speaker 7: 2010.
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: 2010?
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: It turned out really good. I think people would benefit from.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: More sort of back and forth with politicians like this.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I don't care about the civility.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was great. It was the most entertaining part
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: of the whole thing. Wonderful. And the thing that's good
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: for Biden in this is... It happened– these are the
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: sort of moments that go viral. And this happened to
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Obama in 2010 as well when Joe Wilson, a congressman
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: from South Carolina, yelled, you lie, when he talked about
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: the Affordable Care Act. And that sort of became a
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: bit of a– that became a bit of a distraction.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: Republicans heckle Biden for Social Security and Medicare, right? That's
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: like a– if that's going to go viral, that's a
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good thing to go viral.
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: I mean most people who aren't partisan Republicans seem to
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: think Biden won that exchange. Why do you think he won?
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Because he had it with Marjorie Taylor Greene, George Santos,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: and Matt Gaetz. I mean, presidents almost always win those
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: sort of engagements. They have the big podium. They're with Congress.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say, the yahoos in the
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: crowd didn't have a mic.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the peanut gallery doesn't have a historical winning record.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was great. I would offer one cautionary
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: note on that exchange, I think. Now that Biden was
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: very quick on his feet in making them basically agree
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: not to cut Social Security and Medicare. And then a
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: lot of people became a thing in the immediate minutes
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: after that. Be like, dark Brandon tricked the Republicans into
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: supporting Social Security and Medicare. And sort of, yes. But
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think we should concede the fact, and I
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: don't think the White House is, but I don't think
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: we as Democrats should concede the fact that Republicans don't
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: still want to cut Social Security and Medicare. Maybe they're
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: not going to do it on the debt ceiling, which
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: they probably never were. But the reason they lie about
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: their 50-year desire to cut Social Security and Medicare is
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: so they can get into power to cut Social Security
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: and Medicare. And so we should continue to hammer them
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: on that. Because they talk about Rick Scott's plan and
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the Republican Study Committee knows people want to do it.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell, one of his goals in life is cut
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Social Security. Every time Barack Obama ever had a conversation
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: with Mitch McConnell about, is there anything we could work on?
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell would say, if you cut Social Security, maybe
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I'll do some stuff. Like that is why he exists.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: One of the Republican senators who has wanted to gut
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: Social Security and Medicare for a long time is Wisconsin's
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Ron Johnson. He was asked in an interview after the
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: State of the Union, in an interview while he was
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: talking about how angry he was that he has apparently
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: been called out for telling the truth about what he
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: wants to do, and this is what he said about
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Social Security in that interview after the speech.
• 22:27
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so that's why what I've talked about For the
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: first time around in 2010, I just laid out the
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: reality of Social Security. It's a legal Ponzi scheme.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. This program that I promised not to cut
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: or get rid of is a Ponzi scheme. I love
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: keeping Ponzi schemes around. That was great. That's great. These people,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: it's just... I mean, I think the other... I mean,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the other reason that Joe Biden won this exchange is, like,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: it showed that he's sharp and quick on his feet.
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Like, look, he is he's 80 years old and he's
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: not just old, but he's like an old school politician.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: He likes to tell long stories, rambles, he fumbles words,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: not just because he has a stutter, but because he
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: says a lot of words. He likes words. But the
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: guy is sharp, like Republicans boo him for telling the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: truth about their position on Social Security, Medicare. And as
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: he's getting booed on national television, he quickly realizes that
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the best move is to back them into a corner
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: by ad libbing. oh, I love conversions. I guess now
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Social Security is off the table. That's not an easy
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: thing to do. And I do not think that that
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: was a careful trap laid out, that they gamed the
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: whole thing out. I think that he was quick on
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: his feet and just decided to say that he loves conversions.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: And it was great.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well done, Joe Biden.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do think they probably, if you think this,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: they gamed out during speech prep that he was probably
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: going to get some kind of booing, you lie, shit
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: from the Republicans in the House? And what will you
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: do if that happens? I'm sure they game that out
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: in speech press.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: Oh, for sure. Because I mean, Joe Biden is very
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: transparently authentic. And it was very clear in how he
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: set up that hit that he had some discomfort in
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: what the response would be, in part because reportedly he
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: sat in a room with Kevin McCarthy and A few
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: days ago, Kevin McCarthy said, we don't want to cut
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: so security Medicare that's off the table. So he was like,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's all of you, maybe not even
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: a majority of you, just to be very clear. And
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: I'm too nice a guy to name Rick Scott and
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: Ron Johnson. So it's like he knew where he you
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: and I have been in this world where you have
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: tried to get a politician to. make a hit or
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: to say something that they have some discomfort with for
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: whatever reason. And he, he did it in a very
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden way. And the thing about it was, is
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: it was a, he didn't get mad. He didn't snap.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: He was a happy warrior. And that is always the
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: best Joe Biden.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: And that's the prep talking because I'm sure like you
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: get heckled like that. And we've seen it happen with our,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: our boss. Not once. You could snap. You really could snap.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: And because it's not easy, you know, when like you're
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: getting heckled like that in the middle of a speech
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: on national television. So Lawrence O'Donnell went even further and
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: said that Biden didn't just win that exchange. He won
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: the entire debt ceiling fight with that exchange. What did
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: you think of that? Does he have a point or
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: is that just the MSNBC talk?
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: It's over. It's done. Put your money back in the bank.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: By the dip, everything's great. No, I do not think
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: that's the case. I don't think Social Security and Medicare
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: were ever going to end up on the table in
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: this battle. Even these incredibly stupid Republicans like Kevin McCarthy
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: know that that is a losing proposition.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: This is what I've been thinking.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: And we have to be careful that now it's not like, well,
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden won that, Social Security and Medicare are off
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: the table. So now we can finally engage in the
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: conversation we've been wanting to have, which is how much
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: do we cut from education and food safety? And that
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: is the fear. And the principle has to be we
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: will negotiate on the budget after you take the fault
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: off the table. That is the conversation. We can't fall
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: back into that. Joe Manchin is already just going deep
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: down into massive cuts to discretionary domestic spending, to the
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: things that affect people's lives and help people as a
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: way to try to solve this self-created crisis, how to
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: put out the fire that we're threatening to light. And
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: so that's the sense that, no, we did not win it.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: It is not over. And we can actually make it
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse if we overplay the hand we
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: have right now.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's busy leafleting all the green rooms in DC
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: with his op-ed. Right to the Center for Responsible Budgeting.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Look, he's just a guy who knows that the best
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: way to communicate with the people of West Virginia is
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: with an op-ed in the Washington Post.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: So I thought one of the more moving and compelling
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: parts of the night was when the president welcomed Tyree
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Nichols' parents and talked about police reform. Let's listen.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: Most of us in here have never had to have
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: the talk, the talk that brown and black parents have
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: had to have with their children. Bo, Hunter, Ashley, my children.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I never had to have a talk with them. I
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: never had to tell them if a police officer pulls
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: you over, turn your interior lights on right away. Don't
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: reach for your license. Keep your hands on the steering wheel.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: Imagine having to worry like that every single time your
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: kid got in a car. Here's what Tyree's mother shared
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: with me when I spoke to her. When I ask
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: her how she finds the courage to carry on and
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: speak out, the faith of God, she said her son was, quote,
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: a beautiful soul and something good will come of this.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: Imagine how much courage and courage that takes.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Left unsaid there is, you know, the fact that he was,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I think, connecting to Tyree Nichols' parents as another parent
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: who has dealt with the loss of a child and
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: just a lot of loss and tragedy in his life,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: just in a different way. So I thought the entire
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: section on police reform was quite moving and effective. What
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: other moments stood out to you? And was there anything
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: you were surprised Biden didn't include or at least didn't
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: say much about?
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: I hate to get into the game of he only
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: spent 37 seconds on X or he didn't do Y because,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: and we are very insular and biased on this point,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: but you've written the speech. I've run the policy process
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: on the speech before. fitting in everything. It's impossible to
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: give anything, let alone everything, to just do in a
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: State of the Union. But I would say I was
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: surprised he did not spend more time on abortion and
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: the Republican assault on freedom that is happening around the country.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: And I think that that was a centerpiece of what
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: he ran on the campaign. I imagine it will be
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: a centerpiece of his next campaign. And they obviously mentioned abortion.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: He talked about what he would veto if a ban
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: ever came to him. But given the political environment, the
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: continuing assault on reproductive freedom, on personal freedom, that he
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: did not talk a little bit more about that.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I had two thoughts on that. One, I think
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: he really wanted to focus the speech on things he
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: could get done in the next couple years. And I
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: think he probably learned from the first term, from the
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: first two years, that You want to be careful about
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: over-promising and setting expectations too high, as the bill formerly noted.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: as Build Back Better taught us. And all he can
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: really do, aside from all the executive actions he's taking
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: on abortion right now, is to promise to veto a
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: national ban. And so he sort of kept it at that.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I also think that Democracy and abortion were such big
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: themes of the midterm elections and the economy was not.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: And so talking about the economy really was sort of
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: the like business left undone from the midterms. And so
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: they really made a choice, which again is a hard
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: choice to make, that the first basically 50 minutes of
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the speech, 5-0, were about the economy. And like if
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you're watching on TV, the second hour was everything else.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: And that's a lot of economy, but that's, I'm sure they,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: they thought to themselves, we have not been talking about
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: economic issues now enough. And we didn't get too much
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: during the midterms because they were like scared off of
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: inflation and they were talking so much about democracy and abortion.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: So I kind of think that's probably why they did it.
• 30:42
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: I completely understand the strategic logic behind it because it's
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: not even that they're not talking about the economy is
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: that when they talk about the economy, no one covers it.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: And so we've, Obama had the same thought, which is,
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I've done all this. People don't know about it. Here's
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: how what I've done has impacted people's lives or improved
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: the economy. And this is my one chance to say
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: it in front of tens of millions of people.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: With no filter, with no media filter.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Because the next time I do a visit to a
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: factory in Michigan or a rose garden ceremony on the
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: GDP numbers, ain't no one going to hear it. So
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: this is the one chance. That's how you get there.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Which, you know, he went to Wisconsin the next day,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: didn't get a lot of coverage. He talked about the economy.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: Didn't get a lot of coverage. That's why he spent
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: 50 minutes in the speech on it. I was also surprised,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: by the way, that he got away with only talking
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: about the war in Ukraine. And he had like a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: couple lines on China. No other foreign policy. What an achievement.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Not to piss off the world. Sorry, guys. Sorry, world.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I was surprised. Usually. The government, everyone in the government,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: from DOD to state to everyone else, they want at
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: least half the speech on foreign policy, and they want
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: you to cover all seven continents. You miss Antarctica, they're pissed.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: We missed a region once, and boy, did we hear
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: about it. I guarantee you there are some people getting
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: the phones burned up in the Office of Public Engagement.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: We did not mention South America, and we did not
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: hear the end of it. Yes. Rhodes had to fall
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: on his sword for that one.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: I would say that I would imagine that various people
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: on the Biden national security orbit are going to be
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: on the phone with Ben Rhodes and his suspicion of
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: next year's day that you're going to figure out how
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: you can wedge in 15 minutes on everyone's lowest political priorities.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Uh, anyway, they'll cry about that on pot say the
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: world next week. All right. So during the speech, our
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: friends at navigator research held a focus group in Las Vegas.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: It's my all time favorite place for focus groups. Um,
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: With a diverse group of 29 Nevadans equally split between
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Democratic-leaning voters, Republican-leaning voters, and independents with no partisan lean,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: pretty great reviews all around. 62% had a positive reaction
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: to the speech. The percentage of people who believe the
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: country's headed in the right direction moved from 17% to 55%.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: And there was a 21-point jump in people saying Biden is, quote,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: up to the job. Pretty great. Anything else stand out
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: to you in the Navigator?
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: I think it just, the dial groups... Usually work out
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: very well for the person giving the State of the Union. Absolutely.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: But the magnitude of the jumps here is interesting. And
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: it is, I think, a bit of optimism for 2024
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: because the voters in this group are almost by definition
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: people who pay less attention to political news on a
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: daily basis. So they were hearing a lot of these
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: things for the very first time.
• 33:25
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: We have, I guess, theoretically rolled our eyes at the
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: bipartisan infrastructure bill. They're like, you passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill?
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: That's cool. And so you see those jumps. And we
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: all have a short attention span. Everyone's going to forget
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: this tomorrow. But come this fall or more likely next spring,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden's going to have an extremely well-funded, always-on, paid
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: media program telling people these things. And it shows you
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: what the ceiling can be when people are informed on
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: a regular basis and we're not relying on CNN, The
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: New York Times to tell them when you're just paying
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: to tell them. And you can see those numbers on
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: Biden's leadership, on the economy moving pretty quickly once the
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: paid campaign starts, if the economy continues to improve as
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: we've seen in recent months.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: So before we move on, we should just talk briefly
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: about Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders' very forgettable response. Here's a clip.
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: We are under attack in a left-wing culture war we
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: didn't start and never wanted to fight. Every day we
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: are told we must partake in their rituals, salute their flags,
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: and worship their false idols.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: That's not normal.
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: It's crazy. Whether Joe Biden believes this madness or is
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: simply too weak to resist it, His administration has been
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: completely hijacked by the radical left. The dividing line in
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: America is no longer between right or left. The choice
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: is between normal or crazy.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, she nailed it. The choice is between normal
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: and crazy.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, that message worked for the Democrats in 2022.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: Why couldn't it work for the Republicans?
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: Does that MAGA brainworm salad tell us anything about the
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Republican Party and its message ahead of 2024?
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: It is actually an object lesson in the dangers of
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: building a hermetically sealed ideological media ecosystem. Because their brains
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: are so pickled from Fox and the online right-wing media
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: that they have lost touch with reality. They turn on
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Fox and they think it's a window when it's really
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: a mirror. And that is dangerous because that made you
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: need a PhD in MAGA media to understand what the
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: hell she was talking about. And you end up in
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: a situation where you are running against the right wing
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: media caricature of Joe Biden, not the Joe Biden everyone sees.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: You know, look, there are credible arguments against Joe Biden
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: that could very well win this election. The polling shows
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: them this is will inevitably be a close election. I'll
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: tell you this right now. Joe Biden is a crazy
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: radical leftist is not one of those arguments. It's just not,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: it is absolutely not.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, like forcing everyone to say Latin X. That's
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: not going to be the, that's not what the election
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: is going to hinge on.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it is.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: There's just, it is probably a lot of people being like, what,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: what is she talking about?
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: They're so far, they're up there in assets. They cannot
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: see straight.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: I had this conversation with Jane Koston for offline many
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: months ago, and she was talking about how Trump stump
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: speech in 2016 was had like a real message, even
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: if you didn't like the message. Trump's speech in 2020
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: was him talking about like the lovely Lisa Page and
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Peter Strzok and like all of these things that you have,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: like you said, you have to have a PhD in
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: MAGA media to even understand. And he was just too
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: online to really resonate with anyone beyond the people who
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: are huge Fox News fans or Ben Shapiro fans or whatever.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: And it just makes them... And Tim Miller was telling
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: me about this on Offline. He's like, it's not just
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: that they sound... Republicans sound extreme. It's that they sound weird.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Like they just sound... And to normal American voters, don't
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: pay much attention to politics. Just show up and vote
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: on election day. They're like, this woman is saying all
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: kinds of weird shit. And Joe Biden's out there telling
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: me that he's going to take on Ticketmaster. That sounds
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: pretty good.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: They have started doing... Fox News fan service. They're playing
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: all the hits for the people who are... It's like
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: going to Comic-Con for Marvel fans, right? That's who they're
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: speaking to. And you can't reach the rest of the
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: country that way.
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: All right. When we come back, Democratic strategist Michael Podhorzert
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: gives Dan the definitive take on what the 2022 midterm
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: results tell us about 2024.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: Joining us now is the former political director for the AFL-CIO.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: He's also a longtime Democratic strategist and one of the
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: few people who accurately predicted there'd be no red wave
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: in November. Michael Pradorzer, welcome to Pod Save America. How
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: are you doing?
• 38:06
  Speaker 8: Great.
• 38:06
  Speaker 7: Glad to be here. Thanks for having me.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: I'm very excited to talk to you on camera. We've
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: had a lot of conversations on the phone over the years.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: But Your analysis in both– in 2020, you went against
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: the grain and you were one of the people warning
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: a lot of Democrats privately that that election was going
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: to be much closer than people thought and much more
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: close than the polls showed. Then in 2022, not in
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: the fall, not after Roe v. Wade was overturned, but
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: in 2021, you were someone who said to a lot
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: of Democrats, myself included, that Democrats had a real shot
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: to upend the historical precedents in the 2022 midterm, that
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Democrats could actually do well. Help us understand what it
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: is you're seeing in American politics that's led you to
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: both those conclusions.
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 38:52
  Speaker 7: So what happened, basically Donald Trump, right? And the reason
• 39:00
  Speaker 7: this seems fairly obvious, the way I tend to look
• 39:06
  Speaker 7: at it, but not clear to many others, is that
• 39:11
  Speaker 7: he really changed the electorate in a profound way. in
• 39:15
  Speaker 7: that the experience of being governed by MAGA, even for
• 39:19
  Speaker 7: the first two years, brought out a new set of
• 39:23
  Speaker 7: voters on both sides, but more against him than for him,
• 39:27
  Speaker 7: that saw his being in charge, seeing people like Carrie Lake,
• 39:32
  Speaker 7: anybody who subscribes to that kind of agenda as being
• 39:39
  Speaker 7: dangerous enough to be worth going on to vote. And
• 39:43
  Speaker 7: the first demonstration of that was 2018. when turnout went
• 39:48
  Speaker 7: up by 14 points and Democrats won by seven and
• 39:51
  Speaker 7: a half. That was mostly people who had never voted
• 39:56
  Speaker 7: in midterms before, but had, say, voted in 2016, were
• 40:00
  Speaker 7: usually presidential voters saying, no, this is a national emergency.
• 40:04
  Speaker 7: I still need to go out and vote. And so
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: the argument I was making in 2022 was that to
• 40:11
  Speaker 7: the extent that those voters continue to see this as
• 40:15
  Speaker 7: an as that serious a threat to their freedoms, to
• 40:18
  Speaker 7: the country they want to live in, they're going to
• 40:20
  Speaker 7: come out and vote again. And in 2022, thanks to
• 40:25
  Speaker 7: the January 6th hearings and then Dobbs, in the 15
• 40:29
  Speaker 7: or so states that were competitive and that had MAGA
• 40:33
  Speaker 7: candidates at the top of the ticket, Democrats actually did
• 40:37
  Speaker 7: better in most places than they did in the 2018 year,
• 40:41
  Speaker 7: which is really like, try to get your head around that, right?
• 40:44
  Speaker 7: Gretchen Whitmer, Tony Evert, Josh Shapiro, they won by more
• 40:50
  Speaker 7: in a Republican year than they did in a Democratic
• 40:53
  Speaker 7: plus seven year because more and more people understand the
• 40:58
  Speaker 7: danger that they're facing, right? And on the 2020, what
• 41:02
  Speaker 7: was going on was that the people who were looking
• 41:07
  Speaker 7: at it did not see the enthusiasm that sort of
• 41:12
  Speaker 7: new Trump voters had. in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, because they
• 41:19
  Speaker 7: really were not on pollsters' radar. But we could see
• 41:23
  Speaker 7: it on the ground in that they were registering to vote.
• 41:27
  Speaker 7: You know, 30-somethings in sort of white rural areas had
• 41:31
  Speaker 7: decided that Trump was actually finally someone who was filling
• 41:35
  Speaker 7: your pejorative enough to be worth joining the electoral process for, right?
• 41:40
  Speaker 7: And that just wasn't getting picked up.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: On your sub stack, you have a very pretty granular
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: analysis looking at the, which I weekend reading, which I
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: recommend everyone subscribe to looks, you have a granular analysis.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: It looks at the difference between States where MAGA was
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: on the ballot and MAGA wasn't. There are some exceptions
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: to that rule, Colorado, an example where a, not the
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: non MAGA, the lesser MAGA candidate won the primary, but
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: the Democrats still did quite well. Texas, where I think
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: you'd probably consider, like Greg Abbott, a MAGA candidate.
• 42:14
  Speaker 7: So the criteria was actually that it isn't exactly the
• 42:18
  Speaker 7: perfect set of states, but for the purposes of people
• 42:25
  Speaker 7: understanding it more clearly, the key thing is whether or
• 42:28
  Speaker 7: not the race was seen as competitive. Because the key
• 42:34
  Speaker 7: driver here is the media in the state about that
• 42:39
  Speaker 7: raises the alarm for voters, right? And so I used
• 42:44
  Speaker 7: an objectives measure, which was just whether it was considered
• 42:49
  Speaker 7: very competitive by Cook Report so that it didn't look
• 42:52
  Speaker 7: like there was any cherry picking. Texas was not competitive.
• 42:55
  Speaker 7: So even though it's obviously MAGA, that wasn't part of
• 42:58
  Speaker 7: those states. So it was really for people who are
• 43:02
  Speaker 7: that familiar with it, it's basically the six to eight
• 43:06
  Speaker 7: core presidential battlegrounds plus a few others. that had competitive races.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: There's, I guess, maybe two ways to look at the
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: idea of MAGA being on the ballot, as you put it.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: One is the candidates themselves, right? Whether the MAGA candidate was,
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: you know, the nominee, that's the person Trump endorsed, the
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: person who pushing the big lie. And then there's just
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: the overall threat of MAGA extremism overlying any Republican victory.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: How do you separate this? So would theoretically see a
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: very different result if, um, Mark Brnovich, the attorney general
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: in Arizona, had been the nominee as opposed to Kerry
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Lake or Blake Masters or maybe David McCormick for his Dr.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: Oz or something like that. And I say that in
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: the context of what happened in Georgia where a very
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: MAGA candidate with a set of problems that include– not
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: limited to his ideological extremism. And Hershel Walker was running.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Warnock wins.
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: Kemp.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: Someone who we all would have considered to be a
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: very extreme candidate prior to Donald Trump's opposition to said candidate,
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: winning with relative ease. How do you separate just the
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: overall threat of magazine and the specific candidate?
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 44:17
  Speaker 7: And that's a really great, bringing Georgia in is really instructive, right?
• 44:23
  Speaker 7: Because if you remember in 2016, when Trump upended everybody
• 44:28
  Speaker 7: by winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, there was this whole idea
• 44:33
  Speaker 7: that Democrats are doomed. Those are lots of white non-college
• 44:37
  Speaker 7: voters in those states. It's only going to get worse.
• 44:41
  Speaker 7: And because the conventional analysis just tries to pick the
• 44:47
  Speaker 7: electorate apart by demographics rather than through what actually is happening,
• 44:53
  Speaker 7: you would have thought, and it's really landed on almost
• 44:58
  Speaker 7: everybody who talks about politics, but Since that moment in 2016-21,
• 45:03
  Speaker 7: at that point, in those five states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,
• 45:09
  Speaker 7: fulcrum of American politics, there was one Democratic governor and
• 45:13
  Speaker 7: four Democratic senators. Now there are four Democratic governors and
• 45:17
  Speaker 7: nine Democratic senators. Democrats have almost not lost any statewide
• 45:23
  Speaker 7: race in those five states since it was supposedly the
• 45:27
  Speaker 7: death of the Democratic Party that these states have become important.
• 45:31
  Speaker 7: because of their demographics, because the resistance to MAGA is
• 45:36
  Speaker 7: really the driver there, right? Now, you go to Georgia
• 45:40
  Speaker 7: and Kemp, who was in a very close race with
• 45:43
  Speaker 7: Stacey Abrams in 2018, and who is very much seen
• 45:46
  Speaker 7: as the Trump candidate, right? Trump pulled him out and
• 45:49
  Speaker 7: gave him the primary victory, right? He and Raffensperger are
• 45:55
  Speaker 7: the beneficiaries of Trump having tried to extort unsuccessfully those 11,870 votes.
• 46:03
  Speaker 7: Because notwithstanding, you know, his politics, he is seen now
• 46:08
  Speaker 7: not as scary as the rest of them, right? I mean,
• 46:11
  Speaker 7: they were actually tested from most voters' perspective, and they
• 46:17
  Speaker 7: stuck with, from their perspective, rule of law, right? So
• 46:20
  Speaker 7: the only place they're continuing to hang on is where
• 46:24
  Speaker 7: they've actually demonstrated something.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: When you look at 2024, What is your level of concern?
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: You have obviously Trump, who is the embodiment of MAGA.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: And then you have a bunch of candidates running on
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: a MAGA who have built their political careers on a
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: MAGA extreme agenda. But if it is someone other than Trump,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: that person is going to have been opposed by Trump
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: and defeated Trump. Do you worry about a Kemp-like dynamic happening?
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: Or do you think that's very specific and isolated to
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: Kemp's handling of the 2020 election?
• 46:55
  Speaker 7: I think it's something that only he has personally. Because
• 47:00
  Speaker 7: I think that, and here, right, luck can go wrong,
• 47:04
  Speaker 7: but the most predictable thing that will, I think, affect
• 47:12
  Speaker 7: what we're talking about in 24 is the Republican primary process, right?
• 47:18
  Speaker 7: And right now we're thinking about it mostly as, you know,
• 47:22
  Speaker 7: will someone take out Trump, right? But just remember 2016. Right.
• 47:29
  Speaker 7: The forces that drive who's going to win are Fox
• 47:33
  Speaker 7: and right wing media and the evangelical churches and all
• 47:39
  Speaker 7: of the drivers and Republican primaries. And you're going to
• 47:43
  Speaker 7: see whoever is in that. Recognizing their need to appeal
• 47:48
  Speaker 7: to those voters and making themselves into what everybody hates.
• 47:54
  Speaker 9: Right.
• 47:55
  Speaker 7: And that's that's the most important thing.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: So basically whoever comes out of that process, by definition,
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: will be an extreme candidate, which is essentially the process
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: we saw in 2012. Mitt Romney emerged from that quite
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: damaged by having to engage in a race to the
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: bottom with Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachman and Herman Cain
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: and the rest of that parade.
• 48:16
  Speaker 7: But then the really important thing is what happens on
• 48:19
  Speaker 7: the Democratic side. Because if there's a way in which
• 48:27
  Speaker 7: it isn't clear– It isn't generally accepted by the media
• 48:32
  Speaker 7: that whoever it is poses as great a threat, you
• 48:36
  Speaker 7: have a real problem, right? That's the fatal problem. And
• 48:41
  Speaker 7: we saw that in a sort of really like a
• 48:44
  Speaker 7: sort of random controlled trial in 2022, right? In New York, California,
• 48:51
  Speaker 7: and New Jersey, the Biden voters who stayed home and
• 48:57
  Speaker 7: let the Republicans take the House, did not understand they
• 49:01
  Speaker 7: were electing Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the House. And that's
• 49:07
  Speaker 7: sort of a failure of the media. It's a failure
• 49:10
  Speaker 7: of the campaigns in those places, that the thing that
• 49:15
  Speaker 7: brought all those Biden voters out was hating MAGA. And
• 49:20
  Speaker 7: those folks stayed home. Turnout was way down in those states.
• 49:23
  Speaker 7: There was no sense of alarm over this. And that's
• 49:27
  Speaker 7: the danger in 24, is that the media will not
• 49:32
  Speaker 7: treat this in the way they treated 22 and 20.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: Right. You can read that on the wall right now.
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: It defines the Trump-DeSantis coverage. You can see it in
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: the anti-Trump Republican opinion leader, Republican slash quote-unquote conservative opinion
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: leaders who think DeSantis is a viable alternative because he's
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: essentially a less clumsy vessel for that right-wing MAGAism, if
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: you will, than Trump. And And you see how that
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: is already playing itself out. So as you think about
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: what Democrats need to do over the next year and
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: a half here to prepare for that moment, what do
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: you think are at the top of the punch list
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: in terms of messaging or strategic objectives?
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 50:21
  Speaker 7: Well, one thing I think that really was so instrumental
• 50:28
  Speaker 7: in 2022 really should be understood is going to be repeating,
• 50:34
  Speaker 7: which is June and the Supreme Court. We saw what
• 50:41
  Speaker 7: Dobbs could do, and it was so big that even
• 50:45
  Speaker 7: though most of the folks you're talking about in the
• 50:47
  Speaker 7: Democratic Party were really not ready for it, it still
• 50:51
  Speaker 7: had that big impact. The Supreme Court this term and
• 50:56
  Speaker 7: in June 2024 is going to be doing a lot
• 50:59
  Speaker 7: of very unpopular things. And those are the things that
• 51:04
  Speaker 7: convince Americans that this isn't just partisan mudslinging. It's my
• 51:11
  Speaker 7: freedoms are getting taken away. This is going to affect
• 51:14
  Speaker 7: my life in a real way.
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 51:16
  Speaker 7: So I think that's one thing really important is for
• 51:19
  Speaker 7: folks to get to understand what the important rulings that
• 51:23
  Speaker 7: are going to be coming, how that's going to really
• 51:25
  Speaker 7: take things away from people. And and center that in
• 51:30
  Speaker 7: the story of the next two years.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: President Biden in the State of the Union earlier this
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: week seemed, if you sort of read beneath the sort
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: of policy rollouts and accomplishments and framing the economy, but
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: he seemed to make a very specific effort to make
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: a very specific appeal to the very voters that you
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: pointed out, Democrats were very afraid were going to cost
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: us every subsequent election in the industrial Midwest. Is that
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: a fool's errand to try to appeal? And I'm asking
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: this of the former, you know, 25-year-old political director of
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: the AFL-CIO. Is that the right thing to be doing
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: or should the conversation be centered around Republican extremism or
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: is it a bit of both?
• 52:12
  Speaker 7: One of the things that I know you've written about
• 52:14
  Speaker 7: that a lot of people have written about because of
• 52:16
  Speaker 7: the recent poll showing how little credit Biden gets for
• 52:21
  Speaker 7: what are objectively enormous accomplishments and policies that affect the
• 52:27
  Speaker 7: voters that you're talking about. I think one of the
• 52:33
  Speaker 7: things that's really not understood, especially if you're coming to
• 52:39
  Speaker 7: politics from, say, the 70s on, the 80s on, is
• 52:45
  Speaker 7: the reason Democrats did so well with working class voters
• 52:49
  Speaker 7: in the 30s and the 40s and the 50s had
• 52:53
  Speaker 7: a lot to do with the fact that the only
• 52:55
  Speaker 7: way rank and file working people believe that the government
• 52:59
  Speaker 7: is helping them is when people they trust are telling
• 53:02
  Speaker 7: them that the government's helping them, right? You can't come
• 53:06
  Speaker 7: up with a message that says, I helped you, right?
• 53:08
  Speaker 7: People are just too cynical of that, right? And it
• 53:13
  Speaker 7: isn't part of their daily life. But back in that era,
• 53:16
  Speaker 7: when Democrats could count on overwhelming support from working class voters,
• 53:20
  Speaker 7: it wasn't just what they were doing. It's that if
• 53:23
  Speaker 7: you were a working class voter, you are probably hearing
• 53:27
  Speaker 7: how much your job depended on that from your shop
• 53:31
  Speaker 7: steward or from your ward chair. I mean, there was
• 53:35
  Speaker 7: an actual grassroots Democratic Party. And I think it's very
• 53:40
  Speaker 7: difficult for any politician to get credit for policy right
• 53:44
  Speaker 7: now because people don't believe politicians, right? So they should
• 53:49
  Speaker 7: still do it. And it still gives people material to
• 53:51
  Speaker 7: talk about. But the voters you're talking about reaching won't
• 53:56
  Speaker 7: believe it coming from an ad or from a politician
• 53:59
  Speaker 7: or something like that. I think the danger, less so
• 54:04
  Speaker 7: in 23 than 24, is making bipartisanship seem credible, right,
• 54:12
  Speaker 7: when it's not, because that reinforces people who are saying,
• 54:18
  Speaker 7: that those of us who think that this is a serious,
• 54:22
  Speaker 7: serious threat are exaggerating or being alarmist. And either the
• 54:28
  Speaker 7: Republican Party, as it's constituted now, is a severe threat
• 54:32
  Speaker 7: to the nation or it's not. And to sort of
• 54:35
  Speaker 7: toggle back and forth between saying they're the greatest threat
• 54:39
  Speaker 7: to democracy since the Civil War and we can get
• 54:41
  Speaker 7: along and do things is undermining.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Interesting. Okay, last question for you. I remember you and
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: I had a conversation. It was basically, I think, the
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: week before the pandemic hit. And it was about your
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: deep concerns about how the Republicans would try to overthrow
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: the election by abusing their control over the electoral process,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: the loophole of the Electoral Counts Act. And then you
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: spent the next many months of your life preparing and
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: helping organize efforts to try to protect the integrity of
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: that election. Since then, we have reformed the electoral countout
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: in some way. Democrats have held on to critical governorships
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: and battleground states. We've won– we averted worst-case scenarios with
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: members of the Oath Keepers being in charge of the
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: electoral process and all of that. What is your fear
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: about Republicans being able to overturn a Electoral College victory
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: for President Biden in 2024? Are you less concerned about
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: it or is there a specific thing that is still–
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: is there still specific loopholes you think they're going to
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: come after that Democrats should be aware of and try
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: to tighten up if we can?
• 55:56
  Speaker 6: Sure.
• 55:57
  Speaker 7: So not surprising. It's something I'm already really thinking through.
• 56:01
  Speaker 7: The threat of a failed election changes very differently from
• 56:09
  Speaker 7: 2020 to 2024, right? Because there the problem was going
• 56:14
  Speaker 7: to be, how do you get the person who basically
• 56:18
  Speaker 7: has the tanks out of the White House, right? And
• 56:22
  Speaker 7: who has all sorts of untested extraordinary powers and all
• 56:27
  Speaker 7: those other things, right? Here, like Democrats are running.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: The election, right?
• 56:32
  Speaker 7: So the the most important thing is actually winning the election, right?
• 56:39
  Speaker 7: And which some people sometimes forget as they get sort
• 56:43
  Speaker 7: of caught up in.
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: The crisis.
• 56:48
  Speaker 7: But that's the main thing, like got to win. I
• 56:50
  Speaker 7: think the greatest threat to the 2024 election is the
• 56:57
  Speaker 7: Supreme Court and what it could do either in its
• 57:01
  Speaker 7: independent state legislature rulings or in other decisions it has
• 57:06
  Speaker 7: to make between now and the election, either big ones
• 57:10
  Speaker 7: like that, or if it's going to be a close
• 57:12
  Speaker 7: election in a Bush v. Gore kind of way in 2024,
• 57:22
  Speaker 7: in that sort of week before, week after the election,
• 57:27
  Speaker 7: where who knows what happens. And I think a lot
• 57:32
  Speaker 7: of people have become complacent about the Supreme Court because
• 57:37
  Speaker 7: of the way it just didn't do anything to help
• 57:40
  Speaker 7: Trump in 2020. And I think there are two big
• 57:45
  Speaker 7: reasons why the Supreme Court did not get involved in 2020.
• 57:51
  Speaker 7: One was that the business community had decided before the
• 57:56
  Speaker 7: election that they were pretty much done with Trump. And
• 58:01
  Speaker 7: so once It was clear that everybody accepted that Biden
• 58:05
  Speaker 7: had won. They wanted stability. They didn't want, you know,
• 58:09
  Speaker 7: everything disrupted. And that also because of the electoral college system,
• 58:16
  Speaker 7: once Biden picked up Arizona and Georgia, he had to
• 58:19
  Speaker 7: overturn three elections, not one. And that's really difficult, right?
• 58:24
  Speaker 7: I mean, to figure out a way to do that.
• 58:26
  Speaker 7: So I think they just stayed away. But if it's
• 58:29
  Speaker 7: too close, the Supreme Court has a very dangerous role
• 58:32
  Speaker 7: to play there. The other potential situation that, again, creates
• 58:38
  Speaker 7: a crisis for the Supreme Court is if Republicans take
• 58:43
  Speaker 7: the Senate and keep the House, right? Because then the
• 58:47
  Speaker 7: January 4th of 2025, they're the ones doing the whole thing.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: So the threat continues, as you would say. Michael, thank
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: you so much for joining us. Everyone, follow Michael on Twitter,
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: subscribe to his sub stack. You will learn a ton
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: about politics as I always do.
• 59:03
  Speaker 7: All right. Thanks, Dan.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Okay. Before we go, the new Republican house spent the
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: week counter-programming Joe Biden's state of the union with a
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: congressional hearing focused on the financial struggles of middle-class Americans.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Just kidding. It was about Hunter Biden's laptop. Specifically, it
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: was about the decisions that Twitter made regarding the initial
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: New York Post story about the laptop over two years ago.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Republicans hauled former Twitter executives before Congress to testify and
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: use the hearings as an opportunity to air personal grievances
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: about their own experiences on the social media platform, which,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: you know, who among us? I'd say it didn't go
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: as planned, but that would be assuming that they ever
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: had a plan. We're going to talk about a few
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: highlights so you can translate them. your uncle's crazy Facebook
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: posts about this topic. Let's play the first clip where
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: you'll hear from three of the greatest legal minds of
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: our time, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan, and Clay Higgins.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 10: 52 United States Law 10101. No person shall intimidate, threaten, coerce,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 10: or attempt to stop any other person for the purpose
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 10: of interfering with their rights to vote or to vote
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 10: as he may choose. You didn't shadow ban or permanently
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 10: ban my Democrat opponent. No, you did that to me,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 10: and that was wrong, and it was against the law.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 11: Is this a violation of the First Amendment when the
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 11: government sending you an email saying, we think these accounts
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 11: need to be looked at because they violate your terms
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 11: of service?
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: That's a different standard.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 11: So you got the government saying your terms of service,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 11: which don't have to comply with the First Amendment, but
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 11: the government saying, we don't think these accounts comply with
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 11: your terms of service.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Please take them down.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: You, ladies and gentlemen, interfered with the United States of
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: America 2020 presidential election, knowingly and willingly. That's the bad news.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: It's going to get worse because this is the investigation part.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: Later comes the arrest part. Your attorneys are familiar with that.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: What? First of all, I've seen Clay Higgins' name a
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: couple times. Never seen him in person or heard him speak.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: He sounds like a real winner.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: I've never heard Clay Higgins' name. I don't know who
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: that is. It's possible you made that name up.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 7: Missouri.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: Missouri. As a representative from Missouri.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 6: Sure.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Real Looney Tune. Just going out there arresting people. Any
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: reactions to all that legal, all those legal takes?
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: Seems incorrect in a number of ways.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: I like that Large Marge just slipped in there. It's
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: not just wrong. She's like, and that is wrong, and
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: it is illegal.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: Did she just make a Goonies reference?
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: No, that's a Pee Wee's Bigger.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: Oh, it is Pee Wee's Bigger.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. You're right. Get your 80s movie references right, Dan.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: I am honestly embarrassed by that. And no one producing
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: this podcast has any idea what we're talking about.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: Andy laughed. Andy's with us.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: Oh, my fellow denizen from Gen X.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that was not correct. None of that legal advice,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: none of those legal takes were correct.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: One small point to make on this. This has nothing,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: zero zilch to do with the First Amendment. You have
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: no First Amendment right to be on Twitter. This is
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: a fact. It's a private company. Full stop.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Okay. So, you know, you heard at the beginning of
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: this podcast about Chrissy Teigen's tweet.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: And I want to apologize to the parents that we
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: did that.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: How many.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Having against my wishes, I will say.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: In this second clip, we'll hear about how there was
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: a conspiracy at the highest levels of our government to
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: silence an American citizen for sharing political views that the D.C.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: establishment didn't want you to hear. Let's listen.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 12: And according to notes from a conversation with you, Ms.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 12: Navarroli's counsel, your counsel, the White House almost immediately thereafter
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 12: contacted Twitter to demand the tweet be taken down. Is
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 12: that accurate?
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 8: Thank you for the question. In my role, I was
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 8: not responsible for receiving any sort of request from the government. However,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 8: what I was privy to was my supervisors letting us
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 8: know that we had received something along those lines or something.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: Of a request.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 8: In that particular instance, I do remember hearing that we
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 8: had received a request from the White House to make
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 8: sure that we evaluated this tweet. And that they wanted
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 8: it to come down because it was a derogatory statement
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 8: directed towards the president.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 12: They wanted it to come down. They made that request.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 8: To my recollection, yes.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 12: I thought that was an inappropriate action by a government official,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 12: let alone the White House. But it wasn't Joe Biden
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 12: about his son's laptop. It was Donald Trump because he
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 12: didn't like what Chrissy Teigen had to say about him.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 12: Is that correct?
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 8: Yes, that is correct.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: My, my, my. Democratic Representative Jerry Conley from Virginia, obviously
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: a big Chrissy Teigen fan.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought he was about nailing that, the delivery.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: It was like a fucking episode of Matlock, the way
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: he was doing it, and then he fumbled the name
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: at the end.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Amazing. The Trump White House reached out to Twitter to
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: ask them to take down Chrissy Teigen's tweet because they
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: were upset that it was derogatory towards Donald Trump. Just
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: that didn't make it in Matt Taibbi's Twitter file thread
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: or Barry Weiss's thread. What do you think's going on there?
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Oversight.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: No one even knows. Now we have fucking brain worms.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: No one knows what we're talking about. No one knows
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: what we're talking about.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: Are you guys deep in the hole of a very esoteric, small,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: and still dying social media platform? Then stay here.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what? The United States Congress held an
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: entire hearing on it this week. Unbelievable. All right. In
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: this next one, we're going to finally learn the answer
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: to the question on everyone's mind. Why can't I find
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: all of Lauren Boebert's best tweets? So I'll ask again.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 13: Did you shadow ban my account?
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 8: Yes or no?
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: Again, not to the best of my recollection.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 13: So the answer is, Mr.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Roth, yes, you did.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 14: I found out last night from Twitter staff that you
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 14: suppressed my account. Being the sinister overlords that you all are,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 14: you placed a 90-day account filter so.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 13: I could not be found. And now we see here
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 13: that Twitter staff said the visibility filter on my account
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 13: excluded me from top searches, prevented notifications for non-followers, and
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 13: much more. This is considered an aggressive visibility filter. You
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 13: silenced members of Congress from communicating.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: With their constituents. Can I just say... Oh, the filter
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: prevented notifications from non-followers? Like, I hope so. I don't
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: follow fucking Lauren Boebert for a reason. I don't want
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: to know what the hell she's saying.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: If only there were some other way for a member
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: of Congress to be heard. Could they go to the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: floor of the House and speak where the TV cameras
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: are on 24-7? Are there other social media platforms she
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: might possibly use to get her word out? Is there
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: an entire right-wing propaganda network for which she could speak
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: to people?
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: She was complaining because she had some fire tweet making
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: fun of Hillary Clinton that the world couldn't get.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Maybe your tweet just wasn't that good.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, shitty tweets. All right, finally, the panel obtains a
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: damning admission of bias from a former Twitter executive that
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: the company's leaders changed the platform's policy in order to
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: accommodate the leader of one political party. Let's listen.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 9: Donald Trump publicly incited violence at a rally, targeting four congresswomen,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 9: including myself, saying, go back to where you came from.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: Ms.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 9: Navarro, as I understand it, you were the most senior
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 9: member of Twitter's content moderation team, or a senior member
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 9: of Twitter's content moderation team when this was posted. As
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 9: part of your responsibilities, did you review this tweet, and
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 9: what did you conclude?
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 8: My team made the recommendation that for the first time
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 8: we find Donald Trump in violation of Twitter's policies and
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 8: use the public interest interstitial.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 9: And at the time, Twitter's policy included a specific example
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 9: when it came to banned abuse against immigrants as They
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 9: specifically included the phrase, go back to your country or
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 9: go back to where you came from, correct?
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 8: Yes, that was specifically included in the content moderation guidance
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 8: as an example.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 9: You brought this up to the vice president of trust
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 9: and safety, Del Harvey, and she overrode your assessment. And
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 9: something interesting happened after she overrode your assessment. A day
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 9: or two later, Twitter seemed to have changed their policies,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 9: didn't they?
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 8: Yes, that trope, go back to where you came from,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 8: was removed from the content moderation guidance as an example.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Unbelievable. Just unbelievable. I mean, believable. So that was AOC
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: proving that Twitter was not changing their policies to please
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: the libs, but to please Donald Trump.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: It's kind of a piece of evidence that we have
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: lost the thread on the threats of social media in
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: this country, and that we are playing this stupid game
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: of whack-a-mole where we're trying to deal with specific pieces
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: of content that should be suppressed or not suppressed or disinformation.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: And when Ultimately, we have left ourselves in the hands
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: of a bunch of tech billionaires who are going to
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: do what's in the best interest of their company, whether
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: that is let Donald Trump do what he's doing, stop
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump what he's doing. Jack Dorsey said they did
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: one thing. Elon Musk comes another. It's just the issue–
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: if we want to truly deal with this problem of
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: social media, it's going to have to be regulation. It's
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: not going to be through regulation. the policies of these
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: companies because they cannot be trusted to do things right, wrong, left, right, anyway.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: It is going to be what's in their interest.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: Or we just wait for Elon to completely break the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: platform and then we don't have to deal with it anymore.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It's also so funny that we are so worried
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: about this one small platform that barely communicates with anyone.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: And just, you know, it's the, it is the equivalent
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: of the Chinese balloon thing, which is, Oh my God,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: there's a balloon. It's like, Oh, what about the 70
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: million people walking around with the app from the Chinese
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: government on their phone?
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: Same thing.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: Like maybe we should, we should worry about that or Facebook,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: which reaches exponentially more people than Twitter. But we are
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: very focused on Twitter because we are, we are in
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: the political media bubble. Who cares? Who cares?
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: Well, you're all in it with us. Thanks to Michael
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: Podhorzer for joining us today and everyone have a great weekend,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: you know, get offline. And we'll see you next week.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: Bye, everyone.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is Andy Gardner Bernstein.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: Our producers are Haley Muse and Olivia Martinez. It's mixed
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: sound engineered the show. Thanks to Hallie Kiefer, Ari Schwartz,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Sandy Gerard, Andy Taft, and Justine Howe for production support.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford, Milo Kim,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: and Amelia Montu. Our episodes are uploaded as videos at youtube.com
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: slash podsaveamerica.