Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: METALS MELTDOWN..The Crypto Trade You Need to Know & Fed President Announced

Transcript

Crypto Rundown: METALS MELTDOWN..The Crypto Trade You Need to Know & Fed President Announced · CRYPTO 101

0:08
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, everybody.
0:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money and what in episode we have for you We have not one Brendan we have two breaking news is the new fed decided they said it was gonna be February wrong It happened this morning polymarket odds did not sniff this one out We're gonna break that down real quick and Brendan.
0:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I hope you are safe from the silver bear market
0:34
[SPEAKER_02]: There is blood in the streets and the color of it is not red.
0:37
[SPEAKER_02]: It is silver silver bleeding out gold bleeding out the easy easy trade of the year and said everybody said gold silver copper safe haven safe haven safe no more.
0:49
[SPEAKER_02]: absolutely bleeding to the floor almost 20 25 30% we're gonna get up the charts with Brendan we're gonna look at the technical analysis this is the crypto trade alert and the Friday episode that is live for you all if you're joining us on YouTube we really appreciate it Brendan welcome to the show and happy Friday dude what a time to be alive what a time to be in the crypto market welcome back everyone it's good to have you here and happy freaking Friday sorry if you can hear a little bit of noise in the background
1:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, it looks like yard work going on out there, but we're going to make it through it.
1:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, Tevo, you're right.
1:23
[SPEAKER_01]: What a move over the last 24, 48 hours, everything.
1:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, everything spilling to the downside, gold, silver, crypto, even the stock market.
1:34
[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing a big, old turnover, and there's just a handful, like,
1:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So many different news catalysts that we got to bring up and talk about and everything else to the big ones.
1:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the silver market, the metals market, which has been like the go-to kind of mean coin like rise that it's seen here recently, coming crashing down today.
1:56
[SPEAKER_01]: We've been covering the metals and what that has meant for the crypto market.
1:59
[SPEAKER_01]: We want to talk a lot more about it in today's episode, but
2:02
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think the real kind of primary catalyst to big talk of the town, which is what we're going to kick off today's episode with, is the new Federal Reserve Pick, because Jerome Powell, aka Jay Powell as we like to call him over here, he's on his way out this year, and he's going to be replaced by what, well, actually, you know what, I won't spoil it to you though.
2:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I won't spoil it.
2:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I, I give that to you.
2:26
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
2:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Man, he's going to be getting replaced.
2:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And it looks like his replacement will be number one, very probate coin.
2:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And number two, much more focused on cutting rates.
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, there's been lots of concerns, you know, hey, you know, is he going to, you know, how's the Fed going to look?
2:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Or they can be more focused on jobs or inflation or cutting rates or hiking rates.
2:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's all sorts of fears.
2:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And usually when a new federal reserve chairman gets elected,
2:56
[SPEAKER_01]: The markets like to test them, that means that there can be some choppiness.
3:00
[SPEAKER_01]: There can be some volatility.
3:01
[SPEAKER_01]: That's something that we want everyone to be kind of braised for.
3:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And although we are announcing, or we're finding out who the Fed Chairman will likely be right now, they're actually not going to enter into all of this until about the halfway point of this year.
3:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It's probably May, June, July.
3:18
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks like it's going to be the actual time frame where they're
3:21
[SPEAKER_01]: start to be that transitional period and that should start around May and then maybe we see it finalized within I would say 60 to 90 days from that may point so man last to go over to you though I hand it back to you and we'll kick it off here with the federal reserve new but
3:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, we'll pull a polymarker because we're covering it this week.
3:40
[SPEAKER_02]: We had you on.
3:42
[SPEAKER_02]: We had Brian on and we've been kind of charting this where we talked about how Rick reader the bond king from a black rock came kind of came out of nowhere and if you're looking at the the YouTube here you can see that I believe Rick readers going to be the yellow
3:57
[SPEAKER_02]: So the yellow at one point he became the favorite here about the last week at January.
4:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Kevin Wars was the favorite, the mid-January and then Kevin has it was the favorite early December.
4:07
[SPEAKER_02]: So you can see here that there was, you know, talks of this person, that person, nobody really had the lead, but I find it fascinating that Kevin Wars got it and not how he got it.
4:16
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he was always in the running.
4:18
[SPEAKER_02]: It was the timing of it because Brian and I covered that
4:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Trump on Wednesday were doing the live fed show and Trump tweeted out like, oh, I'm going to announce this in February and kind of my take with Brian was last week.
4:32
[SPEAKER_02]: I was like, listen, he's not happy with pal.
4:34
[SPEAKER_02]: So what will he do?
4:36
[SPEAKER_02]: How will he make it reality TV?
4:38
[SPEAKER_02]: my thought was they might announce it like at 225 five minutes before jpg comes out and does the press conference and so we took the we took the poly market odds it wasn't that day it was the before the end of January so it was like at 20% odds or something so we took that live on air so that was a little
4:55
[SPEAKER_02]: little betting market winner if you guys are you know consistent listeners to the show a little fun there and then Brian got the over on tariff mentions so I think it was like 15 or more tariff mentions live the mention markets Brian hit that so successful day for the boys in the betting markets
5:12
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... but yet kevin kevin worse will be the new fed at least proposed like you said it's got to go through the process of getting approved and there's going to be a lot of you know the politics of this is going to kind of drown out and people are going to be opposed to it so um... but overall i think i can kind of pull up uh... a tweet i saw which i thought kind of broke it down is like hey who is who is kevin worse so he's a
5:33
[SPEAKER_02]: At a Morgan Stanley, he worked at Morgan Stanley from 95 to 2002 education background, Stanford, and Harvard Law.
5:42
[SPEAKER_02]: He was the White House NEC from 2002 to 2006, and he was actually on the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2011.
5:49
[SPEAKER_02]: So he was through the Fed during some hectic times, and a lot of liquidity during that time.
5:56
[SPEAKER_02]: as well.
5:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Right now he works at Stanford as post-feds, Stanford Lecture, Dequeen's Capital, and a board member of a coupéing ink, which actually, funny enough, Brendan, I know what that company is.
6:09
[SPEAKER_02]: They're the Amazon of North Korea, which is a little fun fact there.
6:15
[SPEAKER_02]: and uh... let's see Kevin more strengths monetary policy expertise wall street background uh... he's a harsh fed critic and has a hawkish reputation so i think he's less less interested in necessarily flooding the market with qe and more kind of strategically positioning rates to allow the free markets operate so he's going in there uh... probably with an eye that he wants you know
6:38
[SPEAKER_02]: growth up and rates down which you know seems to be the administrations one is well but again we've said on the show many times it's not one person that makes this decision of the market kind of as a whole decides where the bond yields go it's just kind of how the Fed operates and and tease up the monetary policy of the whole thing that lets the bond market react and
6:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I think overall pretty pretty solid reaction to the markets aren't going crazy.
7:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, he's somebody that's, you know, again, working from Morgan Stanley.
7:06
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been around the markets.
7:08
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a market friendly quote unquote market friendly feds.
7:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So they're going to like that.
7:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, and definitely I think the the market's history has shown.
7:15
[SPEAKER_02]: We covered that in a previous episode.
7:17
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm where, you know, each new Fed person usually kind of gets a little bit of a test for the markets to see how they'll react.
7:22
[SPEAKER_02]: So just, just really interesting.
7:24
[SPEAKER_02]: It's something that something that we're going to continue to cover.
7:28
[SPEAKER_02]: It was my kind of piece on the end of your show with you in Bryce that, you know, my favorite thing to watch is going to be this storyline.
7:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And so, you know, January 30th, we're here 30 days in and it's already starting unfold.
7:39
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's something that will cover for the rest of the year as well.
7:43
[SPEAKER_02]: But any thoughts on Mr. Wars?
7:46
[SPEAKER_01]: No, well, just that, it seems like he, it's set a second ago that he has a reputation for being hawkish, which he has, I believe in the past, but in recent years, he has kind of shifted for being more hawkish to being more, as it said, just like skeptical of the Fed and mission creep and other things, and he's kind of reversed his stance to be coming more dovish and saying, hey, yeah, and it says that actually rate at the very top there, which is going to be one of my main points.
8:15
[SPEAKER_01]: is that he thinks the Fed should concentrate on inflation, which like if you look at where inflation is right now, like it's pretty under control.
8:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And so if you're going to have a focus on like, hey, where is inflation?
8:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, according to the true inflation, it's at 1.2%.
8:30
[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at it from the Fed's own standards, which is still somewhere in the 2% range,
8:38
[SPEAKER_01]: It's, you know, fairly under control.
8:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think everyone's going to have a different expectation of what under control is for inflation.
8:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And it'll be interesting to see what his expectation is when it comes to that.
8:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the other thing of where he's been like a harsh critic of the Fed and mission creep and bias and other things, I think this helps position him into a much more,
9:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, probably dovish person in the current state because if you if he was hawkish then he would want to go in and hike rates and Do things like that, but it looks like he's like a nice kind of in the middle person because that's what everyone's thoughts were Is that you know, hey, is he gonna be overly biased in one direction or the other and it looks like
9:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I would at least say that worse is probably the most in the middle of all of the possible candidates.
9:26
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you had some who were like, all we want to do is caught.
9:28
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't care about inflation.
9:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you had, you know, probably other people that weren't being looked at, they were like, all we want to do is hike because that's where we think that the actual problems are.
9:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And then,
9:39
[SPEAKER_01]: that's what it comes back to for me here is he seems like you know obviously he's going to probably lean towards cuts yes or else he probably wouldn't have gotten the nomination in the first place but the other side of it is he looks like he's fairly down the middle and probably one of the most in the middle people that could have come out.
9:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And the big takeaway in why we're all here is roll fans of crypto right and he's a big fan of the crypto market and I think we got a little clipper graphic to show on this But he's pro Bitcoin he likes Bitcoin in fact, I think I saw a clip of him saying if you're under 40 years old Bitcoin is your gold and he said a lot of other things as well.
10:16
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's go ahead and roll it up your TV
10:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, we got we got about a two minute thirty seven here.
10:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to trim that down to about a minute.
10:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, it's not that exact clip that you referenced, but him talking about kind of the technology around Bitcoin and how he views it.
10:33
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's take a look.
10:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Securities that go under all sorts of names.
10:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Many of not most of them are not worth what they're might be being traded for.
10:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So what did Charlie say, and maybe his power and say, there's the innovators and the incompetence.
10:51
[SPEAKER_00]: They're real innovators that are happening in and around that new technology.
10:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And what I would try to impart towards,
10:58
[SPEAKER_00]: businesses and bankers is that the underlying technology that Mark showed me in that white paper or tried to show me in that white paper it's just software it's just the newest coolest software that will provide us an ability to do things that we could never have done before can the software be used for good and evil yes both like all software so I don't cast dispersions like that if there's a final point.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: It's these technologies are being built here.
11:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't just mean on Stanford campus, I believe in the United States.
11:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And the world's most talented engineers from China and Europe and everywhere, they come to the United States even now to try to build this stuff.
11:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And my view is by building it here, that gives us an opportunity to be more productive and create something very special over the next decade.
11:51
[SPEAKER_02]: pro Bitcoin pro technology pro USA that is basically the mouthpiece of this administration is with the crypto capital of the world and again that's an older clip that we found but it's it's interesting that you're kind of
12:06
[SPEAKER_02]: packing this administration with people that have the same view right moving into the future of whether it's Bitcoin, whether it's crypto and we had an awesome interview that one time.
12:15
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't remember the exact project it was, but it was the professor at a Stanford who literally was in his garage building stuff and he came on the podcast and was telling us his story.
12:26
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's just, you know, this is the people that he's been surrounded by at Stanford, you know,
12:34
[SPEAKER_02]: will do our best you know as the story continues to dig up more crypto talk for the new fed president here president to be and i wouldn't be shocked if there's new uh sound bites of him as well now that he's going to be thrown into the public eye there's going to be a lot of new sound bites that we're going to be pulling uh as the year goes on yeah spot on man and
12:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Just we're going to continue to keep tabs on this.
12:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, obviously there's a lot of questions.
12:59
[SPEAKER_01]: People have a lot of questions.
13:01
[SPEAKER_01]: We understand that.
13:02
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to continue to cover this as more information comes out.
13:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So make sure you stay tuned.
13:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But I wanted to give a quick little shout out here to the YouTube channel, which is popping 150 of you, listening live on just YouTube alone right now.
13:15
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's great to see, let's give a quick little shout out to a couple of the people that are being active chatter.
13:20
[SPEAKER_01]: As we have Carl, we have P West.
13:23
[SPEAKER_01]: It's good to see us saying, hey, guys, why
13:26
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be our next segment.
13:27
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to open up the charts.
13:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We have Shibonowski.
13:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I think is how you say it.
13:34
[SPEAKER_01]: We got G. K. We got a couple of names that I can't pronounce.
13:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe eight.
13:41
[SPEAKER_01]: 80 points.
13:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to have you.
13:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, everyone else in there, Brady.
13:44
[SPEAKER_01]: The real food.
13:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to have you as well.
13:49
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a couple of questions and so and grand.
13:52
[SPEAKER_02]: We got grand there with the pirate flag, Grant, friend of the show, Brady, friend of the show.
13:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Big weekend in Tampa, the pirate flags, the pirate flags are a symbol of gas perilla.
14:00
[SPEAKER_02]: So we're flying the dollar out of this weekend here in Tampa.
14:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and before we move on to the charts right now, we're going to do the technical analysis with Brendan.
14:08
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you do me a favor, we got a ton of people in the live on the bottom right.
14:10
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14:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Give it a tap, hit it, subscribe, give us a thumbs up.
14:14
[SPEAKER_02]: It really helps us grow the channel and continue to do this free content.
14:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And then if you're interested in more, check the links below.
14:20
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got our first alerts and our free book and the, uh, you know, crimp nation VIP.
14:25
[SPEAKER_02]: So check those out.
14:26
[SPEAKER_02]: But Brendan, let's pull up the charts.
14:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I mean, let's just jump to it.
14:30
[SPEAKER_02]: You want to go right to silver here.
14:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Can I get a one day on silver or you want to go to Bitcoin first?
14:35
[SPEAKER_02]: No, that's worth it.
14:36
[SPEAKER_02]: That's.
14:37
[SPEAKER_02]: That's Darth Maul.
14:39
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a Darth Maul candle we call it.
14:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, this is like a more like a Darth Vader candle, more than a Darth Maul is where you have like both sides, right?
14:48
[SPEAKER_01]: So you have like the candle body and then you have like a big wick and a big wick and that's your Darth Maul.
14:55
[SPEAKER_01]: This is more like a Darth Vader where it's just, you know, your little handle and then a giant red light saber coming out.
15:00
[SPEAKER_01]: A little Star Wars reference for any of the listeners out there, but
15:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Silver, uh, what was and has been like the meme coin, uh, I mean, look at this chart, TV, was like a meme coin until, really today, a little bit of yesterday.
15:17
[SPEAKER_01]: This thing came in, topped out at one twenty one ish, and it's down over thirty two percent since yesterday.
15:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Man, and it's still going, silver getting annihilated gold, not quite as bad, but pretty
15:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And the thing that you have to understand, silver was a six trillion dollar asset.
15:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I think gold was 30 something trillion or 40 trillion around an asset and total market cap for assets that are worth trillions or tens of trillions of dollars to be moving double digits.
15:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Let alone.
15:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Honey, almost 30% is crazy.
15:53
[SPEAKER_01]: It is extremely rare to see assets of those size move that much in a single day.
15:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But these things have been ripping nonstop for a while now.
16:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So they're coming back in, they're cooling off.
16:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The big question on everyone's mind is,
16:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Since they have been sucking liquidity, sucking capital, pulling everything away from other industries, especially crypto, will this allow that money to flow back into the crypto market and back into alternative investments that are maybe more risk on.
16:26
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the popular conversations that we've seen from the current administration today and the new federal chair pick and things like that,
16:34
[SPEAKER_01]: is talk more about oh strong dollar weak dollar and that's kind of caused this run between metals and bitcoin and it's caused you know some of the fluctuations that we've seen and so as you've started hearing more strong dollar talk you started to see and the new fed share pick because of his dances you started to see metals roll over from that and so again the big question here is now that you're getting the roll over from metals which have been sucking
17:02
[SPEAKER_01]: can that go back into Bitcoin and can that go into the general more broader crypto market?
17:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that is a real possibility here.
17:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's very much on the table is that you can see money go away from metals and potentially in the crypto.
17:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Now is that a guarantee?
17:19
[SPEAKER_01]: No.
17:19
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it would make sense because the way that I've explained it before, a lot of people who are metals are also fans of crypto, metals have had this ridiculous run in the past.
17:29
[SPEAKER_01]: You've seen correlations between when gold runs and metals run and how Bitcoin and crypto performs and you've seen money flow between the two in the past.
17:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Now what you have is the people that are taking profits on metals and they have a couple of options.
17:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So they can either say A,
17:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to take my money out and I'm going to put it into the U.S. dollar, which has all sorts of fears and stuff happening, right?
17:51
[SPEAKER_01]: There's just a lot of foot around it right now.
17:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And on top of that, you do have some inflation, which historically metals investors are kind of against.
17:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that one is possible to some degree, but is it largely where all the money is going to go?
18:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's unlikely.
18:04
[SPEAKER_01]: You also have people saying, okay, well, I'm going to take profits and I'm going to put it into the stock market, which is coming off of all time highs, right?
18:11
[SPEAKER_01]: If you go and you look at like the the spy, for example, if we just look at SPX coming off of pretty much all time highs, it's falling a little bit today, but for the most part, it was at it, you know, what two days ago.
18:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So they could say, okay, well, I could take my money and I could invest in the stock market at all time highs.
18:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that possible to some degree?
18:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you're probably going to see some money flow there.
18:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's the third option, which is going to say, hey, I could take my money and I could potentially look at Bitcoin, which metal investors are historically a fan of.
18:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And they could say, okay, well, Bitcoin's down.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, over 30% from its highs.
18:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's down relative to a lot of the rest of the other assets that we've looked at.
18:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, the stock market is at another things.
18:55
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to say, hey, Bitcoin's probably the best bang for your buck style discount given it's kind of current circumstance.
19:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And so because it's down people are probably more willing to some degree to look at an asset that is large.
19:08
[SPEAKER_01]: like Bitcoin and discounted, then maybe going and saying, oh, you know, it looks like the perfect time for the stock market because it's at all time highs or maybe even given all the footer on the dollar.
19:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's, there might be some sort of hesitation.
19:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, is that a guarantee not necessarily, but I think it makes sense, at least from the way that my brain works, that you should at least see some sort of a shift as metals weaken, and potentially give some strength into,
19:33
[SPEAKER_01]: to Bitcoin in the crypto market.
19:34
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when we look at where we're at right now, this is something that we've talked about on the show, Tevo, we said, hey, we're honest with the viewers.
19:42
[SPEAKER_01]: We try to stay as honest as possible.
19:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the things that we've seen here recently is like the failed breakout.
19:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's been one of the big things that I've been talking about if you're part of crypto nation, or newsletters, or anything else that we kind of do over here.
19:57
[SPEAKER_01]: That's been one of the big things that I have been just
20:00
[SPEAKER_01]: nervous about because what you've seen so far is this big move down kind of bare fly up right that's what a rising channel is in technical analysis is this is a bare fly which is usually a continuation pattern and the continuation here would be well downside, chop, continuation further downside and I think that's kind of exactly what we're seeing here so the the big question is will he kind of what's next?
20:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that there's a decent argument to be made that Bitcoin can continue to see a little bit more downside.
20:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, does the metals market immediately start flowing in the crypto?
20:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not immediately.
20:39
[SPEAKER_01]: My kind of thought process here, and one of the big things that I'm waiting out for is...
20:45
[SPEAKER_01]: maybe a push lower on Bitcoin.
20:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if we can push below 80K, then we can start talking about the potential that Bitcoin is bottomed.
20:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And my thoughts for that are twofold.
20:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one, if we look at the relative strength index, which I love to look at in reference, it's not quite at a lower,
21:05
[SPEAKER_01]: point yet.
21:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It's actually about to enter into the oversoul territory.
21:08
[SPEAKER_01]: What I would love to see, and again, this is just a perfect world.
21:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I know we don't really live in a perfect world, but what I would love to see in a perfect world is some sort of higher low on this relative strength index, even if we get a lower point in price, because what that would be called is bullish divergence, where you're getting a lower low in price, but a higher
21:30
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, show us that there is bullish divergence happening.
21:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's one of the main things that I'm watching for is saying, hey, it's actually okay and very, very possible and on the table for us to push a little bit lower, somewhere into the 70s.
21:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I think we can talk about the idea of a bottom kind of somewhere down in here, we've come down into the level before this used to be our prior all-time highs, turned it into support where we bounced off of that previous all-time high level right in here.
21:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it is possible that we kind of come down here.
21:58
[SPEAKER_01]: then potentially can talk about the conversation of a bottom out.
22:02
[SPEAKER_01]: But right now, this is just a big breakdown, bear flag followed by a further breakdown.
22:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I would be somewhat cautious.
22:10
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, people have come and already asked us, hey, Brendan, should I look at leverage?
22:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Should I dump all of my dry powder in right here?
22:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And number one, I can't give you financial advice.
22:19
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're not financial advisors.
22:21
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, all the disclaimers and disclosures that we have.
22:26
[SPEAKER_01]: go over, but secondly, you know, that's not the way that I'm looking at it.
22:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I think crypto is a massively undervalued where it's at.
22:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So am I okay dollar cost averaging a little bit here?
22:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I am.
22:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I think crypto, especially Bitcoin, is massively undervalued with where it's at right now.
22:44
[SPEAKER_01]: However, that doesn't mean that it can't go down a little bit more, and it can't mean that there's better buying opportunities.
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I'm waiting to see some of the signs on the charts and some of the signs on the technicals and the data and other things to say, hey, you know, this thing's actually in the process of bottoming out, which we just haven't quite seen yet.
23:00
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of early indicators that could say, hey, you know, a bottom looks like it's getting near and close, but as for the bottom
23:08
[SPEAKER_01]: There's still a couple of factors that we're waiting on.
23:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I don't want to be too bearish on this again.
23:13
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to come in with too much of a negative attitude.
23:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I am doing a little bit of DCA or dollar-closed averaging down here.
23:20
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm still a little bit hesitant.
23:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it is a-
23:24
[SPEAKER_01]: definite you know possibility right there's a decent chance that we push down a little bit further somewhere below 80k in the 70s and and I would leave that on the table saying hey that's still possible here and so that's something that I'm looking at and when you look at like the rest of the crypto market team beforehand it back to you it's the same story across a lot of these large caps.
23:48
[SPEAKER_01]: A theory of over here, you have a move down followed by another bear flag via a penit.
23:54
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a breakdown.
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: You broke beneath these prior moving averages, came back up, rejected them here, more downwards continuation, bear flag on E. Over on Solana, move down sideways channel, break down in the further lows.
24:08
[SPEAKER_01]: XRP, a little bit of a different chart, but it's kind of breaking to the lowest point that we've seen, you know, minus this wick, the lowest point that we've seen since November of 2024, B&B's similar situation.
24:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Be in BC in this twice, move down, bear flag, move down, bigger bear flag, and it's starting to break lower here.
24:30
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're seeing kind of the same story just in different ways across some of the largest market cat cryptos where you're having these bear flags or bearish consolidations that tend to work as a continuation move.
24:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And since we are continuing from the down side, upwards moving down, that seems to be where
24:51
[SPEAKER_01]: There's an old saying that, hey, the trend is your friend.
24:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And so while the long-term trend is very clearly to the upside, right?
24:58
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not arguing with that.
24:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I would agree with that.
25:00
[SPEAKER_01]: The long-term trend is to the upside.
25:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm more saying, hey, let's zoom in a little bit more and say, short to midterm trend.
25:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We have been in a downtrend for Bitcoin for...
25:09
[SPEAKER_01]: past you know probably four or five months for altcoins I think you could argue that they've been in a downtrend for around a year, a little over a year actually and I'm looking at the wrong chart but if you look at the others charts so saying every crypto outside the top 10 so the mainstream altcoin market you know this is topped out back in December of 2024 and so
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: as we come to some very interesting and kind of important levels.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Lots going on.
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what a new year full table.
25:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, if that was a little ran.
25:46
[SPEAKER_02]: No, beautiful done.
25:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's a big day.
25:48
[SPEAKER_02]: The live is here, 170 plus people right now.
25:52
[SPEAKER_02]: We appreciate everybody.
25:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Eva Fooster's in there saying the Metals crash was expected but temporary, obviously for hedge against money printing, which we talk about all the time and then saying, silver copper has use for the chips and all these,
26:09
[SPEAKER_02]: You know the future of kind of the use of metals in these microchips and the AI processors and the robots and et cetera So it is it is a fair take my my thing was I'm gonna pull this up actually Brendan.
26:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's important to show everybody We brought this up and having brought it up in a while, but just total that since by market cap and just to see silver down and hit that 30% mark at this big of a market cap
26:33
[SPEAKER_02]: is is truly a block.
26:36
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just a block news.
26:38
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, this is breaking news.
26:39
[SPEAKER_02]: If you saw, think of this, if you saw Alphabet, Google and video Apple, Microsoft, and anybody in this top 10, anybody in this top 20, even or 50, if anybody lost 30% of their market cap in a day, I mean, I don't know what would cause that.
26:55
[SPEAKER_02]: It would be un- it would be unbelievable, almost unprecedented.
27:01
[SPEAKER_02]: drops like that COVID week right worth stocks for drop in 15 20 30 30 percent 40 percent a week like it's it's insane how much happened today in the drop in silver and I was kind of talking to your pre game is like hey I put on you know a little bit of a short nothing much but it it comes down to what we've what we've said on multiple times on this program which I think is credit to us when we're going over and we're kind of talking in the moment to money makers and
27:27
[SPEAKER_02]: what when our time comes in the crypto bros were up and we had our time plenty of times over the cycles right and we see some of these coins whether it's a blue chip whether it's uh... or we go into the momentum money maker side and see those meme coins that hit the one two three four five ten you know if you hit a ten x and you think this is going to go on forever
27:46
[SPEAKER_02]: a rarely when you see a chart that looks like a hockey stick like you showed us in the beginner with silver the hockey stick eventually comes back down and it doesn't mean that the run is over it doesn't mean that silver is going down forever and I think that's it's a good dose because the the timeline was really negative right the crypto timeline which was what we cover and
28:07
[SPEAKER_02]: kind of on the outside looking in and I went to Costco the other day and and this lady like you know was walking towards I had my old car and trying to figure out what again this lady comes running in and just starts grabbing all the silver bars for you know $999 a thing and I'm looking at all these people they put out a fresh stack of silver bars gold was already sold out and everybody's collecting the silver bars and then I was going out to the bars the other weekend and my Uber drivers telling me you know hey you got to buy silver you
28:37
[SPEAKER_02]: This feels like when Bitcoin was at 120 when this feels like when Puggie penguins was ripped and this feels like a Greed and chill guy and I clicked and I was like man we got it We got to go open up a short on silver like it's it's that type of euphoria and it was a great
28:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it was just so interesting to, it might have been the first time ever kind of, but we saw a little bit of the AI trade.
28:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I kind of felt the same way about like pounds here and all that when that was flying high.
29:02
[SPEAKER_02]: But it was interesting to really be on the outside of a trade because like me and you said, yeah, we have a couple, you know, part of portfolio, small percentage, whatever.
29:10
[SPEAKER_02]: But I'm not a huge metal's guy and so I fell left out of this and I'm like, man, did I do I need to go buy some?
29:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I saw these actions of the Costco lady, you know, hitting you with her purse so she could get the last silver bar and the Uber driver telling me to buy silver and I was like Interesting because this is how the this is how crypto turns everybody into an expert when we're flying high and so
29:32
[SPEAKER_02]: I wrap up with this.
29:34
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been doing trying to think and, you know, you're the technical analysis guy and we have our researchers and I'm more of like the social media storyline guy.
29:41
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm trying to think of like, what's my thesis on Bitcoin right now?
29:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Because I really do wish it was rallying with the metals.
29:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we all do, right?
29:49
[SPEAKER_02]: And it just hasn't.
29:50
[SPEAKER_02]: And it kind of reminded me of alphabet and apple.
29:53
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's why I'm keeping this up.
29:54
[SPEAKER_02]: So Google and Apple last year.
29:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Google had that gem and I miss half right with their AI where it was producing bad AI images and bad this and everybody said Google has lost the war of AI Now open AI is going to gobble up Google search their business is done their AI is crap and they're stock cratered 30% to the tea everybody Google's over it's done
30:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Apple doesn't invest in AI.
30:19
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't have an AI to put in their phones.
30:21
[SPEAKER_02]: They're behind the AI race.
30:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Apple has done that exactly a year ago today.
30:25
[SPEAKER_02]: That storyline started and then let's fast forward a year.
30:29
[SPEAKER_02]: What's happened?
30:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Videos gone down a little bit.
30:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Palantir has gone down a little bit.
30:34
[SPEAKER_02]: It used to be anything that was partnered with Open AI was the bell of the ball.
30:37
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to make a trillions of dollars.
30:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Now if you're associated with AI with Open AI, they're like, well, they have a lot of commitments.
30:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Are they going to be able to come through on these commitments?
30:46
[SPEAKER_02]: First off got hit yeah, I don't know if we could pull the child on Microsoft real quick why keep this up right I think Microsoft is down like 10% yesterday 12% because of all the commitments with open AI and so yeah these story lines grow these story lines change and so you know you can get poisoned if you're so short term looking at the storyline of well you know it's not bitcoins not rallying with precious metals bitcoins not rallying with printing
31:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Money the storyline's null and void and it's like that's the short-term version of the storyline Look at that gap down on Microsoft a top six company by market cat by the way.
31:20
[SPEAKER_02]: What do we got, Brendan?
31:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean from What the high of where it was out on Wednesday ended up going down 13% to the downside?
31:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, the very next day and rallied a little bit, but I mean you're right.
31:33
[UNKNOWN]: It's
31:33
[SPEAKER_01]: rare to see those kind of moves.
31:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I read that I think it was what 45% of their backlog was to open AI and more questioning those commitment.
31:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, listen, the market is, I don't know if pickles the right word, but like the, I don't know, that's just the way the market is is last year you're right.
31:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone was against Google and they lost the war and no one's going to use Google search anymore.
31:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone's going to use OpenAI's chatty in that.
31:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Google now has the best videos AI software in the world view three they have the best image editing AI software nano banana pro and so it's like It's just a storyline I guess the one thing I'm trying to hammer home for the listeners is we try if you go back in your listener and we've said hey the fundamentals of the news and the fundamentals of the regulation and we even have some more that to talk about later in the show
32:21
[SPEAKER_02]: It's all there.
32:22
[SPEAKER_02]: The price action isn't there, and that's sometimes that's just storyline driven.
32:25
[SPEAKER_02]: We're not on the right side of the storyline.
32:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And this metal straight felt you fork.
32:30
[SPEAKER_02]: It felt risk on almost, right?
32:32
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, oh, we're worried about debasement.
32:34
[SPEAKER_02]: We're worried about this.
32:35
[SPEAKER_02]: We're buying says like, no, this is greed.
32:37
[SPEAKER_02]: This feels a little greedy the way this was trading so high so fast.
32:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And then, but you needed a correction to prove that to be true.
32:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think we got that today.
32:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
32:48
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I think we did.
32:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And listen, it doesn't mean that metals can't head higher, right?
32:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Did they need the cooldown?
32:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
32:55
[SPEAKER_01]: They were a rip and face.
32:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So they're going to cool down.
32:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, listen, market pullbacks happen and everything and they happen to crypto as we notoriously feel because crypto is so volatile, right, historically.
33:09
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, you know, we'll continue to cover this.
33:11
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see what happens.
33:12
[SPEAKER_01]: But
33:16
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, one of the things that you were looking into to you, though, here is about all the shorts that are piling up against Bitcoin.
33:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And quick little reminder here before we actually get into this.
33:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, we see a lot of your questions.
33:26
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not ignoring you.
33:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I promise we're going to get through the show first and then we'll come through and answer some of these questions and maybe do a little Q and A at the end.
33:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, we see your questions.
33:37
[SPEAKER_01]: We see everyone commenting
33:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And we will wrap back around to those in the meantime.
33:42
[SPEAKER_01]: If you could and if you like what we have to say You know, hey hit the subscribe button hit the like button and Well, we'll make an imaginary statement that says it gives you priority if you subscribe I can't back it up, but I'm just gonna throw that out there and not like it's true
34:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, we appreciate everybody being here on a Friday.
34:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you so much for joining us.
34:04
[SPEAKER_02]: But I did a little research.
34:06
[SPEAKER_02]: Shout out to Roheet, kind of our go-to guy when we're trying to dive into some of the information and the research.
34:12
[SPEAKER_02]: He was helping me kind of, I saw some tweets about how the Bitcoin shorts were kind of outpacing the longs clearly with the price action.
34:22
[SPEAKER_02]: I just wanted to make sure and verify it so we could give everybody information.
34:25
[SPEAKER_02]: So Roheet and I got together this morning and we're looking at this.
34:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And basically, as you can see on this chart, the green here is the short liquidation leverage, the red here is the long liquidation leverage.
34:34
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, I mean, just as you can see the lines here and here, it's completely different.
34:40
[SPEAKER_02]: So we basically got it to about about a two to one ratio, maybe a little less, but for every one long, there's two shorts, maybe a little less than that.
34:49
[SPEAKER_02]: it just kind of shows you where we are and again the price action has been negative we're grinding a little bit lower it seems and the shorts are piling and piling on but then there's a liquidation range and so if this again the price this shorts are in the bears are going to have to keep grinding this lower because if it does break back up so I think like 92
35:07
[SPEAKER_02]: 94 area like that's the match lights and then the shorts liquid eight turns the market buys and like the kind of the catalyst is there for the springboard back towards that 90 to a hundred level And we don't ever crystal ball we say that all the time because nobody does but
35:23
[SPEAKER_02]: it's that we say this a lot like you don't want to be on the same side of the boat is everybody else everybody was just on the silver boat i'll tell you that that boat was one sided for about a couple weeks and you saw what happened today with a 30% correction i hope you got in a lot lower and you weren't buying within the last you know week because you got absolutely dunked on if you're on the same side of the boat and so i don't think the boats too heavy with the shorts yet but again at two to one
35:50
[SPEAKER_02]: It's getting that way, you know, the majority is in the, at least in this liquidation map is on the short side, so it's something to watch could be a catalyst higher.
35:59
[SPEAKER_02]: And then this one, I thought was really interesting with all the panic, Rao Paul kind of tweeted this out is, you know, we're underperforming.
36:09
[SPEAKER_02]: We're so far away from everybody else.
36:11
[SPEAKER_02]: It's, here's the relative of the Nasdaq 100 compared to Bitcoin.
36:14
[SPEAKER_02]: and it's yeah we're down we've been down before around 2020 here and then it looked at this last time we were down and shoots back up and then 2023 we were down shoots back up and you know these charts seem to seem decently correlated it just Bitcoin has more volatility which is what you know we know and we like because in our in our book volatility brings the opportunity so didn't know um you know as our as our resident trader and technical analysis person
36:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think there's, there's a lot of truth to them.
36:46
[SPEAKER_01]: The shorts are piling up.
36:47
[SPEAKER_01]: They're getting more comfortable.
36:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And you see the same kind of thing in the bull market, right?
36:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, let's flip this idea on its head and say, hey, in a bull market, they get overconfident, they get overextended, they get over leverage.
36:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And we saw the effects of what happened, like when stuff like that piles up, back in October and at other points as well at all time highs.
37:07
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll be exactly the same thing can happen when shorts get over confident and shorts get over extended and shorts get over leveraged.
37:14
[SPEAKER_01]: You can see these inverse events that are they're inversely related to something like October 10th and the liquidation that we saw there.
37:22
[SPEAKER_01]: You can just as easily have all the shorts get liquidated and cause a massive shorts quiz, which sends price to the upside.
37:29
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, oftentimes that happens and shorts do get wrapped and you do see price explosion.
37:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, just keep in mind here that, you know, everyone always likes to think about it from, you know, one end and neglect the other.
37:43
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's like, no, the bears here are probably getting close to being too comfortable.
37:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And when they get too comfortable and too overextended and too overeleveraged, that's usually when the big day of reckoning happens and you get them wiped out.
37:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they're forced to cover their positions and buy and other things.
38:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think that's worth watching and it's a really good catch by you when it comes to this chart.
38:10
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there's lots of conversations about Bitcoin compared to NASDAQ and stuff.
38:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And I always get asked, you know, why isn't it correlated or should it be more correlated?
38:18
[SPEAKER_01]: In recent, I would say in recent weeks and recent months, even last year or two, you've started to see Bitcoin decouple from NASDAQ.
38:27
[SPEAKER_01]: It is matured as an asset class and crypto has as well.
38:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And you've started to see it decouple slowly.
38:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So there are points in the market where I think it will follow, right?
38:40
[SPEAKER_01]: But who would even say that overall it's probably good to not have this like one to one correlated to NASDAQ that make it kind of strange and scary, but there's going to be their points and times where it is.
38:52
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's just something that I've noticed and you can kind of see it in this chart here.
38:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that again, there's a bit of a game of catch-up if you look at why Bitcoin is crashed and why it's so low and some of these other things that are happening, there's a couple of reasons, and this was a chat box question from someone in the YouTube chat.
39:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm so shout at you.
39:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it comes down to a couple of things.
39:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one, the lingering effects of the October 10th liquidation event.
39:16
[SPEAKER_01]: That has been
39:18
[SPEAKER_01]: the biggest catalyst in my opinion.
39:20
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the largest single day liquidation event ever.
39:23
[SPEAKER_01]: It's bigger than what we saw with Terra Luna and FTX and Alameda combined.
39:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Like all these big events, you know, I think even bigger than COVID combined in there as well.
39:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was just like, Matt, I think it was all those combined in several fold.
39:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it was ridiculous.
39:37
[SPEAKER_01]: How much money was liquidated?
39:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Close to $20 billion in a single day.
39:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it's silly to think that we would brush that off in a week, a month, multiple months.
39:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And first it looked like we were going to shrug it off.
39:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the lingering effects and the ripple effects kind of came through.
39:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it's like, hey, we're still feeling the effects of that.
39:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of the people, most of the people who were long,
40:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, they were the ones wiped out and so it's going to take a little bit of time to collect those people who want to go along again.
40:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they were they were liquidated.
40:09
[SPEAKER_01]: They were wiped out.
40:10
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to take them a little bit of time to get that money back and they get comfortable enough to go back into that same kind of position because again, they were overexcended.
40:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the other things that you have here are, you know, that obviously the metal's market, which has been sucking liquidity away as well.
40:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And then when you look at other kind of external factors, there is the clarity act getting pushed, right?
40:32
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, everyone thought that was going to go through.
40:34
[SPEAKER_01]: That might be getting pushed.
40:36
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, there's some stuff that's getting voted on in DC that seems to have a little bit of foot around it as well.
40:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there's all these little things where it's like,
40:44
[SPEAKER_01]: there's just a little bit of fun and so when you ask yourself the question or when you ask us the question, hey, why is the crypto market down?
40:50
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a mixture of those, and then on top of it recently, it looks like the thing overnight that kind of pushed the market down, where talks about strengthening the dollar, um,
41:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, that seemed to have been the big one, right?
41:06
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the big reason that I saw was like, oh, we're going to strengthen the dollar in the D.X.Y.
41:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And historically, that has been a bad thing for Bitcoin's price.
41:14
[SPEAKER_01]: But there was just like a few comments made about that.
41:17
[SPEAKER_01]: But a couple days prior, there was opposite conversation, saying, hey, we're going to weaken the dollar.
41:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's like, listen, that's just politics.
41:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're going to get it both ways.
41:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So we don't really talk about
41:27
[SPEAKER_01]: one political side or the other over here, you know, we try to stay out of the politics because that's just not our spiel and it's not what we like to do.
41:35
[SPEAKER_01]: But the truth of the matter is, you know, listen, there's always going to be fog, there's always going to be back and forth and that's just the way that it goes.
41:43
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a little bit of a roundabout answer here to you, though, I thought it all kind of connected in some way.
41:49
[SPEAKER_01]: That's how I'm viewing the markets.
41:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, the markets are quite volatile a question just kind of over on the topic from Craig here is a gold volatility and how does it influence Bitcoin prices?
42:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, traditionally gold, you know, if you zoom out on the charts, at least the one that I've seen it's gold kind of runs up and then Bitcoin follows.
42:10
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, again, in a long-term vision that could happen.
42:12
[SPEAKER_02]: I pulled this one off of X.
42:14
[SPEAKER_02]: This is from let's see here, talos.com, just for a quick answer to Craig.
42:21
[SPEAKER_02]: We didn't have time to verify this, but just want to be respectful and thankful for everybody in the live today is kind of just a Bitcoin relative to the chart here, but you can explain this maybe better than I can, but Bitcoin compared to gold.
42:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, Bitcoin's in a drawdown, but maybe write around
42:37
[SPEAKER_02]: You know again, we don't have the lines on the chart and our metrics that we usually do inside your software But like looks like we're kind of around a support line and that kind of makes sense in my mind at least the way the story line is unfolding right now with with a pullback and precious metals
42:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And I just saw I'm getting alerts on my phone literally as we're live here and this is a little producer magic is I'm seeing 33% down for for silver it hit the 33% down mark, which ties for its worst day in history.
43:07
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you bought silver in the last week, you're caught in a 33% drawdown in the worst drawdown in silver's history and you were sold by the Uber driver that it was a safe haven.
43:17
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
43:17
[SPEAKER_02]: There's just, there's a lot going on, there's a lot of volatility going on and again this is our our saying of zoom out right hey zoom out and kind of my rant on the storyline is there's different story lines that picked up steam and as hard as it was to be on the sideline and have kind of declining price and go through the October liquidation biggest liquidation and crypto history now we're seeing the big biggest liquidation silver history volatility is high right now.
43:42
[SPEAKER_02]: it's just it's just the way it is and I think you know our our time will come again and we're learning lessons from our times of our own you know cycles where we've had highs and lows and now I'm even learning lessons being on the sideline and watching the you know the precious metals trade.
44:00
[SPEAKER_02]: But
44:01
[SPEAKER_02]: I want to transition us into some, um, again, some bullish fundamentals.
44:06
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll go, we'll go over to, I'm sorry.
44:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Did you want to do that?
44:09
[SPEAKER_02]: You want to say something?
44:10
[SPEAKER_02]: The gold chart.
44:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, let's go to the gold chart real fast.
44:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, hold up a sale back.
44:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
44:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Because someone was asking about this and like what it shows is it's saying, hey, how does Bitcoin's price measure relative to gold's price?
44:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And it puts a ratio here.
44:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Because usually we say, okay, well, what is the price of Bitcoin first divided by the price of the US dollar?
44:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, obviously the US dollar is always going to be one.
44:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's always like whatever the one US dollar is divided by our underneath the price of Bitcoin up here.
44:42
[SPEAKER_01]: This is saying, okay, well, instead of what if we divide Bitcoin by the dollar, would if we divide Bitcoin by the price of gold?
44:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what this ratio represents.
44:51
[SPEAKER_01]: It's saying, how do we measure how much one Bitcoin is worth compared to an ounce of gold?
44:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's what this chart represents.
44:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And it can show us that, hey, there's these peaks and valleys.
45:01
[SPEAKER_01]: where at times these two assets can be relatively overvalued compared to one another, or maybe undervalued depending on which side you're looking at.
45:12
[SPEAKER_01]: And so what this ratio is showing us is like, hey, we're getting back to a historic low area where, you know, this is the lowest price that Bitcoin has been valued compared to gold since I believe 2023, you know, shortly after the market bottom didn't stop.
45:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's saying, hey, if you compare Bitcoin to gold, this is probably one of the more undervalued areas.
45:34
[SPEAKER_01]: And so again, I think it kind of feeds into this idea of where are the gold people most likely to take profits from?
45:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think it makes sense that they're most likely to take profits from gold in the Bitcoin and transition those.
45:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And this kind of works hand in hand with this very chart.
45:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And we had, uh, who was asking about this, Craig, I think it was Craig, if you others were asking about this, like the legend, Craig, and as, as we, uh, yes, to thank you Craig for the question, and then as we, as we continue on back to kind of, hey, at least for crypto, yeah, the price action is where we wanted, but the bullish fundamentals continue.
46:10
[SPEAKER_02]: So I bring up BlackRock, these are some hiring, uh, some jobs that the BlackRock, uh, HR department is looking to fill.
46:17
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the,
46:18
[SPEAKER_02]: you know the most interesting part of it is vice president director but what's the job digital assets product strategist where San Francisco managing directors New York digital assets product strategist Boston digital artists product strategist New York what does that mean is product strategist through designing their building products and again whether they're going to launch new products bundled together existing products it's all based around digital assets and all these products are going to be given to the financial advisors
46:46
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to go sit down with your grandmother, your grandfather, your father, your mother, and yourself to say, hey, we're BlackRock.
46:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, a decade ago Bitcoin was bad.
46:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Now it's good.
46:56
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.
46:57
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got the Ethereum BlackRock ETF.
47:00
[SPEAKER_02]: We have all these new digital assets product strategists because that's where the future is, and that's where we need your money to go.
47:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And so this is kind of the groundwork of hiring, creating these roles and building these products over the next
47:11
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, one, two, five years, it's something that they're spending, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars on creating, and it's not going to go away tomorrow.
47:22
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not going to go away with a little bit of a price action, with a little bit of a correction.
47:25
[SPEAKER_02]: If anything, they're gobbling up these assets and building these products to then sell it back to you.
47:30
[SPEAKER_02]: That's how it works.
47:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Follow the big money here folks.
47:33
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is a really exciting kind of update to see these type of jobs growing and not only in one place either.
47:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously San Francisco makes a ton of sense, but I thought Boston was cool.
47:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Boston, obviously New York, but you know, starting to branch out for BlackRock here.
47:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And keep in mind, they are a 14 trillion, 14 trillion dollar asset manager.
47:56
[SPEAKER_01]: They're the largest asset manager on the face of this earth.
48:00
[SPEAKER_01]: The amount of assets that they have under management is more than most countries are worth.
48:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's crazy.
48:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Their total assets under management is bigger than the entire crypto market several times over.
48:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So they are huge.
48:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And I say this because they set the standard for what the rest of the financial world does.
48:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Because they are the largest, they are so big.
48:21
[SPEAKER_01]: They set the standard.
48:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And their competitors are already doing the same, right?
48:25
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at a lot of the other big asset managers and banks out there and other people that are in the same boat.
48:31
[SPEAKER_01]: They're all doing the same thing.
48:32
[SPEAKER_01]: They're trying to get in on the action.
48:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the best is yet to come to you, though.
48:39
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't believe this is going anywhere.
48:40
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't believe this is going anywhere.
48:42
[SPEAKER_01]: What else we got?
48:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, we got two more quick hitters here and just an absolutely electric live today.
48:49
[SPEAKER_02]: We really do appreciate one final ask at the bottom right.
48:53
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're new here, hit the logo, give us a subscribe.
48:55
[SPEAKER_02]: We do this multiple times a week and we're having so much fun with you today that we hope you'll come back.
49:00
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49:01
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49:02
[SPEAKER_02]: It just really shows us that we're doing a good job and keep delivering this fun free content with you guys because we love doing it with you.
49:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, two quick hitters and then we're going to do some questions.
49:10
[SPEAKER_02]: So if anybody has a question out there in the chat, start throwing it in the question box.
49:15
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to get to it in the next couple minutes.
49:17
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to answer as many as we can because we really appreciate you guys being here on a Friday afternoon.
49:21
[SPEAKER_02]: So throw some questions in there.
49:23
[SPEAKER_02]: But first, fidelity, fidelity, Wall Street continues to choose Ethereum as fidelity announces a USD backstable coin on Ethereum.
49:33
[SPEAKER_02]: interesting.
49:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, the Ethereum storyline is just like the rest of crypto, it seems recently, just nonstop bullish news.
49:42
[SPEAKER_02]: The price action is not following, but fidelity the latest, you know, $5.2 trillion in assets under management chooses Ethereum for its backstable coin.
49:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And these stablecoin products are really starting to pop up at a fast rate.
49:58
[SPEAKER_01]: They are, you know, and I think, again, I kind of goes into my last point, what we're not seeing these things slow down.
50:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're only going to see them accelerate.
50:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're going to continue to see more of them, black rock is who we were just talking about.
50:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're talking about fidelity, and I'm choosing at the area, and building and launching their own USD backstable coin and this stuff.
50:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And guess what?
50:20
[SPEAKER_01]: People are bearish.
50:21
[SPEAKER_01]: People are bearish and they're saying, you know, maybe we shouldn't get exposure, maybe we should sell this stuff off.
50:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, we talked about some of the bearish stuff that's happening in the short term, cannot emphasize and reiterate this point and not.
50:33
[SPEAKER_01]: When you look at the long term vision, these companies, these asset managers, these banks, they are not building for the short term, they're building for the long term.
50:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's the kind of the lens that I look at the crypto market right now is saying hey could it go a little bit lower do I want to put all my dry powder in right here maybe not it seems a little risky however I want to be getting some form of exposure down in here because I do believe in the long term and if I believe in this like fidelity and black rock do then I think it's safe to say that it's you know potentially at a discount when we're down 30 40% from the highs.
51:09
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I would just say, like, look at this through the, through the same lens that JP Morgan and Blackrock and Fidelity are and they view this as a long term play, which is what I would view Bitcoin and Ethereum as as well.
51:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Couldn't couldn't agree more couldn't set it better myself and to wrap up just some fun.
51:26
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we've been talking about how the fundamentals are bullish, but the price action has not been Brendan and there's been numerous people everyone from Matt Hogan down to Tom Lee himself and said, hey, we're actually in a bear market and we're coming out of the bear market.
51:42
[SPEAKER_02]: That was the
51:43
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... kind of the storyline going into the end of the year and into twenty twenty six and i was like i don't know it are we in a bear market it feels like price at maybe but like nobody was talking about the bear market you know six months ago and i finally capitulate i as like you know what we are in a bear market because tom leaves writing the bus it's a work
52:02
[SPEAKER_02]: saw this picture just Tom Lee's got a great sense of humor, man, because he just said snow knocked out the train so morning commute today is by bus and I was just like man if Tom Lee's riding the bus that I think that might be we might remember we did like crypto bagel and stuff we might need to put Tom Lee riding the bus on on our Ethereum chart and that might that might that might tick like a local bottom for us.
52:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Say no, Tom Lee rides the bus, Tom Lee riding the bus is almost on my Ethereum chart.
52:39
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, I'm working on it as we speak.
52:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Tom Lee rides the bus boom.
52:45
[SPEAKER_01]: It's done.
52:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It solidified in place.
52:47
[SPEAKER_01]: We now now.
52:48
[SPEAKER_02]: So I, I lived in Union City for a year in my younger days when I worked at IBM, people forget former IBM or here.
52:57
[SPEAKER_02]: One of the first two market AIs in the world was Watson.
53:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I was a leader in the Watson community bringing AI to the world before people were hyped up about it.
53:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I took the bus to work.
53:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I was a young professional.
53:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I took the bus and not fun, not as you can see.
53:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Tom Lee doesn't even have a seat.
53:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So these buses into New York, man.
53:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's everybody gets in.
53:16
[SPEAKER_02]: They pile in.
53:17
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like your sardines in there.
53:19
[SPEAKER_02]: You got to squeeze in and I just was laughing, thinking like, man, what if somebody is a huge, like, Tom Lee guy?
53:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And they're all in on Ethereum or a bit mine and they're down 50% and just looking at the guy that's been shilling them, been mining Ethereum and he's standing in the bus next
53:35
[SPEAKER_02]: I felt that I was dying looking at that, but we, Tom Lee, front of the show, we love him.
53:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Kevin Stanley's in the chat.
53:43
[SPEAKER_02]: He's given us rockets.
53:44
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to the moon, Kevin.
53:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Cayman's in here.
53:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Eight, zero point one.
53:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Eve, a booster, Craig's in here.
53:52
[SPEAKER_02]: We had grant.
53:53
[SPEAKER_02]: We had Brady.
53:54
[SPEAKER_02]: We had Frank.
53:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Matt Beaver's in here.
53:57
[SPEAKER_02]: It's unbelievable.
53:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Matt says love following y'all's channel and listening to every episode I'm also a part of crypto nation VIP and Brenda's in this technical analysis course Matt is a legend for that So let's say not that's a
54:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, let's see.
54:11
[SPEAKER_02]: We got a question from Evan here, so we're doing this off the cuff here.
54:14
[SPEAKER_02]: When is the genius act supporting stable coins expected to affect relevant alt coins that have supporting infrastructure?
54:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's a great, that's a great word, a question.
54:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, we don't have the crystal ball here, but I think it feels like
54:31
[SPEAKER_02]: the market seems to be waiting for this clarity act, which is going to be a little bit of a longer process than we think.
54:37
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like all these stable coins.
54:39
[SPEAKER_02]: I think people are building the foundation to get everything done technically, but to really pile in, I think there's a lot of people waiting for this legislation.
54:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So that that would be my quick answer, but I definitely know of a question.
54:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Crystal ball wondering what you're talking about.
54:52
[SPEAKER_01]: What we saw some news about I think it was we didn't get the research enough.
54:56
[SPEAKER_01]: We like saw the news come out like minutes before we went live and sort of like, all right, let's research this before we jump on air and talk about it, but something about the market structure bill passing the Senate.
55:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And so again, we're going to do some more research and probably come back next week and talk more in depth about what's happening over on that front.
55:15
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think you're right, you know, it looks like the clarity act is getting kicked down the road a little bit.
55:18
[SPEAKER_01]: There's some disagreement about how it should be written and we've covered this in in recent weeks.
55:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, here it is.
55:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Senate panel passes, cryptos, CFTC, cryptocurrency regulation bill.
55:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, there is this happening and maybe some precursors that are getting set up.
55:34
[SPEAKER_01]: But what you have is that
55:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so here it is two measures would need to combine before passing before advancing to the Senate floor.
55:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
55:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, definitely some stuff that needs to happen before then, but we'll we'll wrap back about or we'll wrap back on this topic when it comes up to the politics stuff gets confusing just because again, I did take one class of political science at University Delaware.
56:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody does remember that if you're a long time listener of the show.
56:03
[SPEAKER_02]: So I could be considered a political commentator in
56:06
[SPEAKER_02]: any world because I don't think too many people have expertise in politics but there's there's a lot of congestion it feels like when it comes to passing actual big bills and big laws and again it's got to go from the house to the senate and then there's like oh well the senate is republicans so they can pass it wait there's a filibuster so you need seven democrats and it's like there's so many things about that that the actual inner piping of the politics of it is a little bit not where we focus
56:33
[SPEAKER_02]: But there's been a lot of noise around, you know, Brian Armstrong coming out and like kind of taking a sport away and then getting pulled back in and Davos and saying, well, we're working on it and then so there's a couple different things that I think are all just kind of coming together when it comes to the structure of how these things are going to get past and it's just interesting timing to see if it will get done before the midterms.
56:54
[SPEAKER_02]: How bipartisan is crypto legislation?
56:57
[SPEAKER_02]: I think kind of for the technology of it, and the forward looking of making the U.S. the crypto capital of the world.
57:04
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that is bipartisan.
57:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I think what the Democrats aren't gonna like is let's be honest.
57:10
[SPEAKER_02]: The Trump family has made a ton of money.
57:13
[SPEAKER_02]: from crypto and been in the right areas to make this money through legislation and their own businesses.
57:18
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that's going to be a talking point of the other side of the aisle and something to keep kind of tabs on.
57:24
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, it's something that will keep researching and when the big break, he news happens and the actual movement happens of getting this stuff either done or, you know, yay or nay is is kind of where the news breaks and kind of forecasting before that doesn't doesn't work well because it's hard to hard to gauge.
57:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, completely agree.
57:43
[SPEAKER_01]: completely agree.
57:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Any other big questions, maybe if I scroll back up to the beginning, Tiva did any catch your just a lot of takes on silver.
57:53
[SPEAKER_02]: People are still bullish on silver and gold saying, you know, it's just a correction type of thing.
57:58
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, I think that's the storyline of all these assets of gone higher.
58:03
[SPEAKER_02]: The S&P's gone higher.
58:04
[SPEAKER_02]: The Nasdaq's gone higher.
58:06
[SPEAKER_02]: the Russell is now at all time highs as well and it's it's just these storylines I really think my thesis on that Google and Apple take is more of what we're going to see going into the rest of the year is hey storylines change crypto everybody says crypto's the you know the losers right now I think we'll be back and we'll have our day again um you know it was you can't lose on gold and silver and we're literally recording live and it hits
58:29
[SPEAKER_02]: the largest down day in Silver's history.
58:31
[SPEAKER_02]: So again, I think you got to do your research, you got to stay up to date in the knowledge and that's what we do this show for and we have a lot of fun doing it.
58:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Start on, man.
58:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think we hit on just about everything that we possibly could of today, almost an hour along episode here of the crypto run down.
58:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And like Tiba said, guys, we love doing them.
58:51
[SPEAKER_01]: We love doing them.
58:52
[SPEAKER_01]: They're completely for free.
58:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And the whole point of
58:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Search everything from the fundamental and the technical side and explain it all and bring it to you completely for free and the only thing that we ask in return Is that you say hey if I like this Go ahead and hit the like and subscribe button.
59:10
[SPEAKER_01]: We do these every single week multiple times a week as well as different podcasts and market updates and YouTube tutorials on different cryptocurrency platforms and products and stuff
59:22
[SPEAKER_02]: and we love bringing it all out so again if you liked it hit the like and subscribe button thank you all for watching and i'll hand it off the TV yeah we got a fun week ahead uh... if you guys are new check the community uh... post i'll post when we're going live for next week but uh... other than that it was a great week at content thank you bread and for joining us uh... we'll be back next week with some interviews with price and bread and we'll do some more lives so thanks everybody for joining enjoy your weekend and we'll see you all next week
59:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Wow Kevin Stanley coming in late with a little super chat there at $10 super chat from Kevin Stanley.
59:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you so much Kevin, friend of the show Kevin Stanley, unbelievable way to end the episode.
1:00:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you Kevin and we're going to see everybody else next week.
1:00:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Bye everybody.