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Trump Meets Anthropic CEO; Rejects Iran’s Latest Offer · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts.
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  Speaker 2: Radio.
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  Speaker 3: News.
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  Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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  Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
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  Speaker 5: Just after 1 o'clock on Wall Street and in Washington.
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  Speaker 5: About an hour from now, we expect President Trump will
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  Speaker 5: be making an announcement pertaining to steel at the White House, where,
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  Speaker 5: of course, it's going to be another busy week, and
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  Speaker 5: it was a busy evening for President Trump. He was
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  Speaker 5: attending a golf event in Chicago yesterday. He arrived back
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  Speaker 5: at the White House, according to the pool report that
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  Speaker 5: I have here on my screen, at 9.36 p.m.
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  Speaker 6: Sunday evening.
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  Speaker 5: He was scheduled to have dinner with the CEO of Anthropic,
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  Speaker 5: Dario Amadei, Yesterday evening. I don't know, Joe, if that
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  Speaker 5: dinner began at about 10 p.m., if it was perhaps
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  Speaker 5: just a drink.
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  Speaker 7: He's a West Coast guy.
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  Speaker 8: It was probably just an evening like any other. For
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  Speaker 8: Donald Trump, I mean, I was going to bed when
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  Speaker 8: I read that. I thought, wow, I can't quite imagine this,
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  Speaker 8: what they talked about, where in the mansion this took place,
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  Speaker 8: and what it's going to mean for the summit this week.
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  Speaker 7: We have questions, don't we?
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  Speaker 6: Indeed we do. Hopefully, Skylar Woodhouse has the answers.
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  Speaker 8: Let's go to the White House right now. It's not
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  Speaker 8: just AI we're talking about. It's Iran, of course, unpacking
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  Speaker 8: a busy weekend. Skylar Woodhouse is Bloomberg White House correspondent
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  Speaker 8: and on the North Lawn right now. Do we have
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  Speaker 8: a sense of what took place in this meeting, Skylar?
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  Speaker 8: And why is the president summoning Dario at that hour
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  Speaker 8: on a Sunday night?
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  Speaker 9: Yeah, well, I think we were all pretty shocked. I mean,
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  Speaker 9: it's a Sunday evening and, you know, after these trips,
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  Speaker 9: typically the president just goes back to the White House and,
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  Speaker 9: you know, they call a lid and it's sort of
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  Speaker 9: the day is over, but not for President Trump. He
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  Speaker 9: clearly kept things moving late Sunday night. So I think
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  Speaker 9: we'll have to see what comes from this meeting. And
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  Speaker 9: that's something we're still trying to learn. This obviously comes
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  Speaker 9: only days after President Xi was here in Washington and
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  Speaker 9: meeting with the president. And, you know, the president obviously
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  Speaker 9: has been trying to, it's made it very clear that
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  Speaker 9: he wants to win this race and.
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  Speaker 6: The AI competition.
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  Speaker 9: This also comes at a time when AI leaders are
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  Speaker 9: calling to sort of put some guardrails up, to tap
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  Speaker 9: the brakes, to try and slow down the rapid progress
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  Speaker 9: that we are seeing in the technology. But the president
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  Speaker 9: has so far not really shown that he is on
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  Speaker 9: board with that. So we're trying to figure out what
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  Speaker 9: came from that meeting. Is there a type of balance
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  Speaker 9: that Trump maybe can strike with these AI leaders, especially
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  Speaker 9: as more tech leaders and AI executives are coming to
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  Speaker 9: Washington for talks later this week?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, we'll see what comes of those conversations with the
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  Speaker 5: Speaker of the House included in them. We're expecting some
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  Speaker 5: other important conversations maybe to take place this week, Tyler,
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  Speaker 5: as it pertains to Iran. President Trump, of course, telling
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  Speaker 5: Axios that he does expect negotiations will continue at some
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  Speaker 5: point this week, even after rejecting a proposal the Iranians
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  Speaker 5: put forward after the meeting in New York on the
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  Speaker 5: sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. Where exactly do we
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  Speaker 5: stand on diplomacy here?
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  Speaker 9: Yeah, these talks have been very fickle and very volatile
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  Speaker 9: since really the start of this war. And we have
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  Speaker 9: continued to see this back and forth in terms of
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  Speaker 9: where things land. I think for a lot of people
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  Speaker 9: in Washington and most people are trying to figure out
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  Speaker 9: where exactly do these talks stand and what exactly is
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  Speaker 9: the latest, especially as, you know, the president will toss
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  Speaker 9: things out saying, oh, like, you know, they'll be reaching
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  Speaker 9: a deal soon. Iran wants to come to the table.
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  Speaker 9: we'll have a deal coming in the next coming weeks.
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  Speaker 9: And we've really sort of just seen this continuing back
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  Speaker 9: and forth from the president as he talks about these negotiations. Now,
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  Speaker 9: we can assume that these talks are always happening. It's diplomacy,
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  Speaker 9: it's national security. But it does raise the question on
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  Speaker 9: what exactly is being hashed out. And as we get
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  Speaker 9: closer to these November midterms with oil prices rising, bonds
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  Speaker 9: are selling off. It's raising a lot of questions for
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  Speaker 9: the president and the administration on what exactly their end
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  Speaker 9: game is here, especially as it does appear the president
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  Speaker 9: is semi-boxed into a corner as he's still trying to
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  Speaker 9: navigate how to sort of land that plane and wrap
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  Speaker 9: this war up, which is not something that we are
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  Speaker 9: seeing at this current moment.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, and something he suggests we might not see until
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  Speaker 5: after the midterm election, Skylar Woodhouse covering the White House
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  Speaker 5: for us from the North Lawn. Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 5: And for more on Iran, And the other geopolitical issues
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  Speaker 5: of concern, we turn now to Michael Allen from Beacon
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  Speaker 5: Global Strategies, where he's managing director. He's also former special
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  Speaker 5: assistant to President George W. Bush in the national security sector.
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  Speaker 5: And he's here with us in our Washington, D.C.
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  Speaker 6: Studio. Good to see you.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you.
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  Speaker 5: Michael, as always, if we consider what President Trump suggested
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  Speaker 5: to Axios, not just that negotiations may resume this week,
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  Speaker 5: but that Iran has overplayed its hand, to quote him directly,
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  Speaker 5: suggesting that they want concessions that he may have agreed
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  Speaker 5: to a year ago, but not now. A year ago,
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  Speaker 5: the Strait was open. It wasn't even a question of
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  Speaker 5: getting freedom of navigation back.
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  Speaker 6: So what exactly is he talking about?
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  Speaker 1: I think he means that the blockade, which is probably
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  Speaker 1: the best sanctions enforcement mechanism we could possibly have, is biting.
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  Speaker 1: And I don't think there's any way it couldn't be biting.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, they can't get a lot of their oil out.
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  Speaker 1: They can't get certain products and goods in. The question,
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  Speaker 1: of course, has always been... When will it bite to
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  Speaker 1: such a degree that these Iranian hardliners feel like they
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  Speaker 1: need to make real concessions? I don't know that they're
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  Speaker 1: there quite yet, but I think inevitably it was inevitable
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  Speaker 1: that this blockade was going to work. and that they're
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  Speaker 1: having serious economic trouble. And some of them, maybe not
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  Speaker 1: all of them, maybe it's not uniform among this government
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  Speaker 1: by committee, are getting worried.
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  Speaker 8: Interesting hearing from Iran's foreign minister over the weekend, talking
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  Speaker 8: pretty tough to say that we have changed our methods.
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  Speaker 8: We're ready for a resumption of war. with the United States.
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  Speaker 8: Just a week ago at the UN, the president was
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  Speaker 8: talking about annihilation. And he keeps saying that it's one
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  Speaker 8: or the other. They're going to break down and we're
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  Speaker 8: going to move in with whatever is the big one here.
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  Speaker 8: And they've both indicated that after the midterms is possibly
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  Speaker 8: when that happens.
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  Speaker 7: Is that what our military is preparing for?
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  Speaker 1: I think there is something magic about the midterms because
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  Speaker 1: I think the Iranians believe, and even if they were
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  Speaker 1: conditioned to accept something serious, that that would be a
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  Speaker 1: gift to President Trump. I think in their minds, they're
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  Speaker 1: playing a contributing role to the prospect, the possibility, the
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  Speaker 1: likelihood that the president might lose the House of Representatives
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  Speaker 1: and possibly even the Senate. And they probably are thinking
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  Speaker 1: to themselves they don't want to forestall that because they
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  Speaker 1: think they have leverage.
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  Speaker 6: Okay.
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  Speaker 1: At least through that particular time period.
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  Speaker 5: Well, you say they think they have leverage. Is their
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  Speaker 5: leverage being materially reduced? Have they overplayed their hand as
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  Speaker 5: the president characterized?
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  Speaker 1: I think they are beginning to feel the sting. And
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  Speaker 1: I think that was inevitable, as I say. So I
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  Speaker 1: do believe that they are finally experiencing something which I
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  Speaker 1: think we would call leverage on behalf of the United States.
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  Speaker 1: Trump obviously very quickly rejected what they apparently put forward
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  Speaker 1: over the weekend, which were maximalist-type demands, the things we
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  Speaker 1: saw six or eight weeks ago when they were flying high.
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  Speaker 1: I wouldn't have expected them to put anything else forward,
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  Speaker 1: but I didn't see President Trump say— Let's rush to
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  Speaker 1: the negotiating table. I didn't see Jared Kushner and Steve
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  Speaker 1: Witkoff take off. Now, I'm not saying it's about to collapse.
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  Speaker 1: The regime's not necessarily about to collapse. But these economic indicators,
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  Speaker 1: at least the ones that we follow, are not good.
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  Speaker 1: And there are probably all sorts of other things that
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  Speaker 1: we cannot see, which are starting to really erode the foundation.
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  Speaker 10: Of the regime.
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  Speaker 8: Well, that erosion could continue here. In the next two weeks,
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  Speaker 8: we've got, what, five weeks to midterms. Scott Besson says
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  Speaker 8: in two weeks, there will be nothing left to trade,
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  Speaker 8: was the line. Iran will not have any more oil
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  Speaker 8: on the water to sell to China. Could, in fact,
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  Speaker 8: we see that pressure point finally change behavior?
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  Speaker 1: I think that's a significant milestone, especially if we look
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  Speaker 1: backwards over this over time and it comes out into
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  Speaker 1: a better place for us. I think we would see
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  Speaker 1: that particular development as something that was absolutely notable. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: there's a reason why people like me and others who
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  Speaker 1: follow this aren't running around saying, why didn't we raise
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  Speaker 1: with Xi Jinping the possibility of issuing secondary sanctions on
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  Speaker 1: Chinese banks last week? I still wish they would do
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  Speaker 1: it because I think it would have a chilling effect.
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  Speaker 7: Why not bring it up?
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  Speaker 1: But there's not so much oil coming out on the
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  Speaker 1: market anymore for these so-called, these banks to finance the
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  Speaker 1: teapot refineries with in China because they got no oil
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  Speaker 1: on the market. So that's not, as I said, it's
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  Speaker 1: not nothing. We don't know how much it is, but
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  Speaker 1: it has to be having some serious effect.
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  Speaker 6: But you think the president missed an opportunity last week,
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  Speaker 6: it sounds like.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I think he definitely, if I were, I would
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  Speaker 1: have said more to the Chinese about Iran and Russia
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  Speaker 1: than he apparently did. I have not seen a reliable
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  Speaker 1: readout that said, hey, you know what, it would be
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  Speaker 1: really helpful to solving most of these conflicts if you
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: laid off oil purchases. I hope he did that. I
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  Speaker 1: don't see any evidence that he did.
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  Speaker 8: If we do see escalation after the midterms, Michael, as
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  Speaker 8: many expect, do we have the munitions available? To continue
• 9:36
  Speaker 8: the same type of operation we had? Or is this
• 9:38
  Speaker 8: going to look a lot more like 10 or 20
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  Speaker 8: years ago when we're all out of the exquisites or
• 9:43
  Speaker 8: we're done using them because they're dwindling?
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  Speaker 1: So I think we figured out the bottom line after
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: weeks of conflicting different articles. It sounds like we have
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  Speaker 1: enough ammunition to do what we need to do in
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the CENTCOM theater against Iran. The question really is how
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: many of these things can we do? simultaneously? And that
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: is where it gets really, really scary. Now, it's not
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  Speaker 1: to say that we are absolutely just stocked with magazine
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  Speaker 1: depth in the CENTCOM theater, but we have enough apparently
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  Speaker 1: to get moving and do things that are substantive. But
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  Speaker 1: I think if you started quizzing the other combatant commanders,
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  Speaker 1: I know that they're sending what are called non-concur memos
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  Speaker 1: around the Pentagon saying, I wish you wouldn't take all
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  Speaker 1: this capability out of my area of responsibility because I
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  Speaker 1: think things are getting tense.
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  Speaker 11: We don't have enough.
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  Speaker 5: Well, and that's just within our own military, not to
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  Speaker 5: say anything of what we may or may not share
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  Speaker 5: with allies who also want similar munitions or air defenses.
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  Speaker 5: Ukraine being a prime example. President Trump obviously met with Zelensky.
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  Speaker 11: At the U.N.
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  Speaker 6: Last week.
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  Speaker 5: We know that Ukraine is worried about the winter and
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: in desperate need of air defenses.
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  Speaker 6: What is this winter going to bring them?
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  Speaker 1: Well, I keep reading and hearing that this is going
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  Speaker 1: to be especially tough. The Russians, I think, I don't
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  Speaker 1: want to say they're going for broke, but they didn't
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: have a good year. And one of the cornerstones of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: their strategy is really to force some sort of capitulation
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: on the part of the population, to put more pressure
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: on Zelensky, to prematurely, I would say, negotiate. and really
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: just give away land to Putin. That's their plan. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: my impression is that the Ukrainians are tough and they're ready.
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  Speaker 1: They're desperate for more interceptors, like you said. But I
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: think the Russians are going to just unleash ballistic missiles
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  Speaker 1: and drones galore at the poor Ukrainians.
• 11:33
  Speaker 8: When the president is asking Zelensky to meet in Moscow
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  Speaker 8: with Vladimir Putin for talks, are we serious about that?
• 11:39
  Speaker 7: About ending this?
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  Speaker 1: I think the president wants to end it. He obviously
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: has a flair for the grand gesture. I can't see
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: that working.
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  Speaker 7: Might not be the safest gesture for Mr.
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  Speaker 4: Zelensky.
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  Speaker 7: I don't think he would be safe either.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm surprised we haven't seen more Russian attempts
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to assassinate Zelensky. Maybe we'll hear about that down the road,
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  Speaker 1: how aggressive they have been, which must be the case. Anyway,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be thrilled about going to Moscow if I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: were him. And as the president rightly says, these two
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: men don't really like each other. I think shuttle diplomacy
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: is a better way to go.
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  Speaker 5: And in the meantime, obviously, they keep striking one another. Overnight,
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  Speaker 5: Russia was targeting critical infrastructure, including data centers in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 6: A number of people died.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: And we know Ukraine has not been shy about going
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: after Russian refineries specifically. And President Trump has pointed to that,
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: given record diesel prices we are seeing, saying you need
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: to stop that because it's exacerbating this energy problem. Is
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: there any incentive right now for the Ukrainians to do that?
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: Is that not their most effective means of putting pressure
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: on the Kremlin right now?
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  Speaker 1: I think it is among the most leverage that the
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Ukrainians have over the Russians. I don't think the Ukrainians
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  Speaker 1: want to even touch it. but for Trump asking for it.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: But as I understand it, it was, if the Russians
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: stop hitting our energy infrastructure, we'll stop hitting yours. And
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the Russians, they don't care. They're going to do whatever
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: they want to do. And so I think that gives
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Zelensky enough room to say, hey, Mr. President, I'd do it,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: but the Russians aren't matching me.
• 13:07
  Speaker 8: We're reporting on the idea of the Patriot licenses that-
• 13:12
  Speaker 8: In fact, the U.S. will grant these licenses, but it
• 13:15
  Speaker 8: will take at least a year to start rolling new
• 13:19
  Speaker 8: interceptor missiles off the line. Where's Ukraine in a year
• 13:22
  Speaker 8: without defense on that level?
• 13:26
  Speaker 7: Well, they have.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Begun to manufacture their own interceptors, which are less sophisticated
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and will necessarily have less capability. But you're right to
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: raise it. It's not a great outcome. It's not a
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: pretty picture.
• 13:39
  Speaker 7: This is the moment Putin's been waiting for, you could argue.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I think so. And I think that's why people are
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: especially worried about the winter, because I think that's what
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: he plans around.
• 13:47
  Speaker 7: I think that's what they.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Really Russian Russian armies succeed in the winter or just
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: after an invading force has had a rough time. So,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm worried about it. The Zelensky, he's obviously
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: worried about it. He brings it up, shouting it from
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the rooftops every international meeting he goes to. So he's
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: acutely worried about that particular situation.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: Just in our final minute, Michael, you also hear more
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: rumblings about other countries who are close to Russia that
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: are in NATO, worried that Russia may, if backed into
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: a corner, strike out at a NATO ally.
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: Do you see that as a real possibility?
• 14:23
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we've talked about gray zone activities
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: on the Russians for years and, you know, little incursions
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: here and there. Obviously, they're doing assassinations and murders and
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: other crazy things. But now it's going to a place
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: where some people are saying, this isn't gray zone activity.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: This is in the almost warfare-like type of thing with
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: drones coming over. So, yeah, I'm worried about them trying
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: to do something to.
• 14:48
  Speaker 11: Split the alliance.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Not necessarily full-scale war, but NATO's going to have to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: be tough.
• 14:54
  Speaker 8: It's great to have you, as always. Michael Allen at
• 14:56
  Speaker 8: another dangerous moment in American history. Beacon Global Strategies.
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  Speaker 7: Thank you, Michael. We'll assemble our political panel next.
• 15:03
  Speaker 8: Rick Davis and Jeanne Shanzano are on the way in
• 15:05
  Speaker 8: here on the Monday edition of Balance of Power.
• 15:07
  Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 15:09
  Speaker 7: more coming up after this.
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  Speaker 6: We have our eye here.
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: In Washington, on the same issue that Wall Street has
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: been paying close attention to, no surprise, it's artificial intelligence.
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: We can't get enough of the policy debate here in D.C.,
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: especially in the face of escalating disclosures and concern about
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: the risks posed by advanced AI models after a series
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: of breaches at various levels and intensities. And that was
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: the backdrop for a dinner that was held at the
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: White House yesterday, a late night dinner. Mind you, as
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: the president arrived back at the residence very late between
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: the CEO of Anthropic and President Trump himself. And that dinner,
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: of course, Joe, sets the stage for another meeting that
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: is set to take place in Washington tomorrow. Dario Amadei included,
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: but a number of other A.I. CEOs joining in.
• 16:15
  Speaker 8: This does feel like this story is coming to a
• 16:18
  Speaker 8: head in Washington this week. We've got the dinner last evening.
• 16:21
  Speaker 8: To your point, it was after 10 p.m. That's for
• 16:23
  Speaker 8: another day. But we'll have the summit tomorrow. We know
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: Zuckerberg's going. Many have been invited. We'll get a full
• 16:29
  Speaker 8: sense of how many will be there with the Speaker
• 16:30
  Speaker 8: of the House in the room, presumably thinking about the
• 16:33
  Speaker 8: potential for legislation to regulate AI. And it's all coming
• 16:39
  Speaker 8: to a head at the same time as we see
• 16:41
  Speaker 8: Dario becoming a character on Saturday Night Live and on
• 16:45
  Speaker 8: Capitol Hill, the Ratepayer Protection Act potentially up for a vote.
• 16:49
  Speaker 8: Do we look back on this week as an important
• 16:52
  Speaker 8: one in the evolution of this story? Let's talk to
• 16:55
  Speaker 8: our political panel about it. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shanzano
• 16:58
  Speaker 8: and Rick Davis are with us. Jeannie is our Democratic
• 17:01
  Speaker 8: Analyst and Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center.
• 17:05
  Speaker 8: Rick is our Republican Strategist and a partner at Stonecourt Capital. Rick,
• 17:09
  Speaker 8: with your political hat and your investment hat on, is
• 17:13
  Speaker 8: this the week the White House finally says it owns AI?
• 17:19
  Speaker 11: Well, I think they've been trying to own the message
• 17:21
  Speaker 11: around AI.
• 17:22
  Speaker 10: You know, Trump has fought back on the doomsayers about
• 17:25
  Speaker 10: AI and all the tragic things that could occur. And
• 17:29
  Speaker 10: he's taken a really hard position on continued data center
• 17:34
  Speaker 10: development really outside the mainstream of political thought right now.
• 17:38
  Speaker 10: And so you can imagine they're probably attempting to circle
• 17:41
  Speaker 10: the wagons and say, look, we need to get you guys,
• 17:43
  Speaker 10: the industry, on board with the president because he's way
• 17:47
  Speaker 10: out there promoting your industry more than you are.
• 17:51
  Speaker 11: And so we'd like to get the message straight.
• 17:53
  Speaker 10: And I'm sure that was part of the dinner last
• 17:55
  Speaker 10: night and definitely going to be part of the meeting
• 17:58
  Speaker 10: today or tomorrow.
• 17:59
  Speaker 7: Mm-hmm.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: Well, does there risk blowback, Jeannie, in being seen as
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: being drawn closer to the guys in charge of these
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: companies that the American public obviously is taking great issue with,
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: rather than trying to address the issue in another means
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: that doesn't seem like it's being done in coordination with
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: them necessarily, but objectively?
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I mean, I'm not sure Donald Trump
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: has to worry about that as much because let's face it,
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: as it is at his inauguration, he was surrounded by
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: the biggest of the tech industry titans and tycoons. So
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: he's already wrapped himself up there. But I do think
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: he needs to be paying close attention to where the
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: American public is on this. And it's not just about
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: data centers. It's about so much more. I mean, I
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: don't think we can deny the fact that for the
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: first time probably in American history, The American public is
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: looking at an industry that's worth.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: More than any industry, I think, in history at one
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: trillion or more.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: That is completely unregulated by the federal government. They have
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: every right to be suspect about that.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: And you know who is regulating their industry?
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: AI industry, China, the states like California, even Texas now.
• 19:22
  Speaker 6: Florida, New York.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: So the federal government needs to get on board with
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: this because, let's face it, that's what governments do. They
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: manage to take an economy, keep it competitive and innovative,
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: and at the same time protect their people and their
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: country from all the externalities that can occur.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: That's where the White House should be on this.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: And Donald Trump has slowed to this, but maybe tomorrow
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: he turns that around?
• 19:51
  Speaker 8: There's still a question, Rick, but it appears John Thune
• 19:54
  Speaker 8: may bring the Ratepayer Protection Act to the floor on Wednesday.
• 19:59
  Speaker 8: This is a piece of legislation aimed at data centers
• 20:01
  Speaker 8: that would be aimed at lowering costs for consumers, something
• 20:06
  Speaker 8: we've talked about a bit. And there's a question about
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: whether Democrats will let this happen, or do they give
• 20:11
  Speaker 8: the senator behind this bill or Republicans at large a
• 20:14
  Speaker 8: win right before the midterms? This would be what Jeannie's
• 20:17
  Speaker 8: talking about, the federal government finally taking action here.
• 20:20
  Speaker 7: Will it actually happen?
• 20:23
  Speaker 10: Yeah, at its genesis, this bill was a bipartisan bill,
• 20:27
  Speaker 10: is a bipartisan bill. I would imagine it will get
• 20:30
  Speaker 10: Democrat votes because the Democrats don't want to get mispositioned
• 20:34
  Speaker 10: on this, right? They've actually had the advantage where there
• 20:36
  Speaker 10: have been more Democrats complaining about data center developments than
• 20:39
  Speaker 10: there were Republicans. Republicans figured out this was a bad
• 20:43
  Speaker 10: place to be politically, and they joined the Democrats in criticizing.
• 20:47
  Speaker 10: And you've seen them over and over at the state level,
• 20:49
  Speaker 10: especially governors now ratcheting down on regulation.
• 20:53
  Speaker 11: So yeah, I think that everyone's going to claim a
• 20:56
  Speaker 11: win on this.
• 20:57
  Speaker 10: Because at the end of the day, if you could
• 21:01
  Speaker 10: actually get this to a neutral, in other words, Democrats
• 21:04
  Speaker 10: and Republicans are in the same place on it, then
• 21:07
  Speaker 10: it shifts back over to other issues that voters care about,
• 21:10
  Speaker 10: which are cost of living, affordability issues, and Democrats have
• 21:14
  Speaker 10: a major advantage on that. So they just want to, Democrats,
• 21:17
  Speaker 10: I would think, politically, just want to keep an even
• 21:19
  Speaker 10: playing field and don't want to be mispositioned on the
• 21:25
  Speaker 10: explosion of data centers.
• 21:26
  Speaker 11: Around the country.
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: And yet the Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, Jeannie, has
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: thrown some cold water on this particular legislation, suggesting, to paraphrase,
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: that it doesn't have any teeth. But if you're Senator
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: John Ossoff, for example, defending a Democratic seat in Georgia,
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: a state where the data center debate is red hot,
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: can you vote against this?
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be very tough.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: You know, I am sensitive to what Chuck Schumer is
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: arguing about the lack of teeth, but also for whether
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: it's Ossoff or any of these other folks that are
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: running in these districts.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Are quite frankly putting the elections aside.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: The federal government does need to step up and step
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: into this debate. So while this isn't the perfect piece
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: of legislation by any stretch of the imagination, it is
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: a step forward. And so I do hope that Democrats
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: are there to support it. But what they also need
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: to be doing, and by they I mean all of
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: our representatives, whether Democrat or Republican, is to be moving
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: forward on a conversation about regulating this industry, but doing
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: so in a way that keeps in mind what David
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: Sachs said and I'm no huge fan of David Sachs,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: but he argues that the motivation of these AI companies
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: is not altruistic in requesting this regulation. They are trying
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: to impact competition and trying to slow down open source.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: So the government needs to ensure that they both regulate
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: in our interests and ensure that competition is healthy. And
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: they don't regulate in a way that these big tech
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: companies now are able to pay the price of the regulation,
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: pushing out the small, innovative people. Like I think of
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: some of my students who are up and coming in
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: these areas. They should be allowed to enter into this
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: area as well.
• 23:18
  Speaker 8: Well, I'll tell you guys, we're fascinated by this dinner
• 23:20
  Speaker 8: between the president and Dario last evening, not just the
• 23:23
  Speaker 8: fact that it started apparently well after 10 p.m., but
• 23:26
  Speaker 8: what they talked.
• 23:26
  Speaker 7: About and what is their relationship. It was just a
• 23:29
  Speaker 7: couple of weeks ago.
• 23:30
  Speaker 8: I spoke with Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary at the
• 23:34
  Speaker 8: G20 Innovation Summit yesterday.
• 23:36
  Speaker 7: Where Dario was not present.
• 23:38
  Speaker 8: It was a different executive from Anthropic, along with Jensen Wong,
• 23:42
  Speaker 8: Sam Altman, and it was a real rah-rah, let's go AI,
• 23:46
  Speaker 8: we're winning the race kind of vibe that day. But
• 23:48
  Speaker 8: we spoke specifically, when I asked Lutnick, about Anthropic's relationship
• 23:53
  Speaker 8: with the government. Remember, they are still technically deemed a
• 23:56
  Speaker 8: supply chain risk by the Pentagon, but.
• 23:59
  Speaker 7: There was a making up.
• 24:01
  Speaker 8: And I asked Lutnick if they had righted their relationship
• 24:04
  Speaker 8: with the administration.
• 24:05
  Speaker 7: Here's what he said. We had a good kerfuffle. Yeah.
• 24:08
  Speaker 12: Right?
• 24:09
  Speaker 7: It was out there. But, you know, they've gotten religion.
• 24:13
  Speaker 7: They understand. What's the religion? The religion is that there
• 24:17
  Speaker 7: is no country better than America.
• 24:20
  Speaker 8: And that you have to be on side with America
• 24:22
  Speaker 8: because America's on your side.
• 24:24
  Speaker 7: Did they need to be taught that? Well, I think.
• 24:28
  Speaker 8: They were a little confused about the topic, but we
• 24:30
  Speaker 8: sorted that out.
• 24:31
  Speaker 7: The president sorted that out and I helped sort it out.
• 24:34
  Speaker 11: And now I think we're all in tune together.
• 24:38
  Speaker 7: I'm not sure if they are in tune together, Rick.
• 24:40
  Speaker 8: What do you make of that answer and the president
• 24:42
  Speaker 8: summoning arguably one of the most important executives in the
• 24:46
  Speaker 8: world to the White House at that late hour on
• 24:48
  Speaker 8: a Sunday?
• 24:49
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 24:50
  Speaker 11: I mean, obviously, ice breaking was on the menu.
• 24:53
  Speaker 10: And I think that if you got, you know, Commerce
• 24:57
  Speaker 10: Secretary Lutnick saying things like, you know, we trust Anthropic,
• 25:01
  Speaker 10: then why do you still have a supply chain risk
• 25:03
  Speaker 10: hanging over the head for the Department of Defense? And
• 25:07
  Speaker 10: especially it affects the Commerce Department. So maybe we'll see
• 25:12
  Speaker 10: in the short run the administration unifying around their policy
• 25:16
  Speaker 10: on Anthropic and release the supply chain risk moniker that's
• 25:20
  Speaker 10: on them. But I also think that a lot of
• 25:24
  Speaker 10: it is trying to get the message straight going into
• 25:26
  Speaker 10: an election year. You know, I mean, the president just
• 25:28
  Speaker 10: finished meetings with the Chinese premier. And out of that
• 25:34
  Speaker 10: came an unbridled move forward by the United States to
• 25:39
  Speaker 10: try and, quote, beat to the race China. And Anthropic
• 25:43
  Speaker 10: plays an critically important role in that. And so my
• 25:46
  Speaker 10: suspicion is, too, part of it is, hey, here's what
• 25:49
  Speaker 10: I talked to the Chinese premier about, and this is
• 25:52
  Speaker 10: what we need to do to beat China in the race.
• 25:54
  Speaker 11: And So I think.
• 25:56
  Speaker 10: That it'll be interesting, actually, to see what happens between
• 25:59
  Speaker 10: now and election on this, because you can't have a
• 26:02
  Speaker 10: friend and foe moniker on Anthropic at the same time,
• 26:05
  Speaker 10: one or the other. You listen to Secretary Lutnick and
• 26:08
  Speaker 10: you think they're friends again.
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but I guess it probably depends on which member
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: of the administration you ask. They may still feel like
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: the kerfuffle is still being.
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: Kerfuffed? Is that the verb version of that word?
• 26:21
  Speaker 7: I guess I'll go with that.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: I'm going to leave it there.
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics Contributors.
• 26:26
  Speaker 7: Can you say that on the air?
• 26:27
  Speaker 11: Thank you both so much.
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: It feels right.
• 26:31
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 26:31
  Speaker 8: Kerfuffled. I wouldn't kerfuff with that. It's not lost on us,
• 26:36
  Speaker 8: by the way. Jensen Wong out today with the NVIDIA
• 26:39
  Speaker 8: Open Agent Safety Platform. I'm telling you, we might look
• 26:43
  Speaker 8: back on this week as something. He also is announcing
• 26:45
  Speaker 8: a massive stock buyback, which Charlie will probably hit on.
• 26:48
  Speaker 7: We'll check the markets for you straight ahead. Did we
• 26:50
  Speaker 7: thank the panel?
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: Thank you, panel.
• 26:52
  Speaker 7: Thanks, Ricky.
• 26:53
  Speaker 6: This is Bloomberg.
• 26:53
  Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 26:56
  Speaker 7: more coming up after this.
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
• 27:08
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• 27:11
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• 27:14
  Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
• 27:17
  Speaker 8: All right, Charlie Pella putting in a five-day work week
• 27:20
  Speaker 8: this week live from New York. He'll be back at
• 27:22
  Speaker 8: 2 p.m. Eastern with another check on the markets as
• 27:25
  Speaker 8: we kick off Bloomberg Business Week daily. I frame it
• 27:28
  Speaker 8: that way because it appears senators will have a three-day,
• 27:31
  Speaker 8: more of a two-and-a-half-day work week. Kayleigh, they're going to
• 27:33
  Speaker 8: be likely done by Wednesday. And then that's it. The
• 27:36
  Speaker 8: House is already gone. Senators will then be on their,
• 27:39
  Speaker 8: we'll call it election recess because nobody's coming back after
• 27:42
  Speaker 8: that until after the midterms. The question is, can they
• 27:45
  Speaker 8: get anything done? And it does seem there's an appetite
• 27:47
  Speaker 8: to do something before they leave town, whether that's the
• 27:51
  Speaker 8: college sports bill or the Ratepayer Protection Act that we
• 27:54
  Speaker 8: were just discussing with Rick and Jeannie We'll have to
• 27:57
  Speaker 8: find out.
• 27:57
  Speaker 7: But this is the last call, it seems like.
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: And we weren't even sure that they would be here
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: this week to do this work. There was a chance,
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: at least for a bit last week, that they were
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: going to get out of Dodge even earlier than planned.
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: But for some vulnerable Republican incumbents, that wasn't necessarily the
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: note they wanted to leave on. Namely, the senator in Ohio,
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: John Husted, who was in a tough reelection fight and
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: who was shepherding this or leading this data center-oriented ratepayer
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: protection act. So let's get more on it now as
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: we turn to Eric Wasson, who covers Congress for us
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: on our Capitol influence team and is on Capitol Hill
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: with us now. Eric, when we consider this ratepayer protection act,
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: keeping in mind that it did pass the House with
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: a massive bipartisan majority, a lot of Democrats voted for
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: this thing. I believe only three Democrats ultimately didn't vote
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: for passage on the House floor.
• 28:45
  Speaker 6: How much tougher is it going to be in the Senate?
• 28:48
  Speaker 13: You know, the key thing about this bill is it
• 28:50
  Speaker 13: just doesn't really do as much as people think it does.
• 28:52
  Speaker 13: State utility commissions control the rates that people pay for electricity.
• 28:56
  Speaker 13: If you look at the text of the bill, it
• 28:58
  Speaker 13: basically requires these commissions to consider a federal standard. So
• 29:03
  Speaker 13: I think this is pretty weak. TA passed with such
• 29:05
  Speaker 13: overwhelming support because it doesn't really do that much that's controversial.
• 29:08
  Speaker 7: But it could nonetheless help John.
• 29:10
  Speaker 13: Who said keep his seat. As you mentioned, he's in
• 29:12
  Speaker 13: a very tough race with Sherrod Brown trying to come back.
• 29:16
  Speaker 13: former senator from Ohio. So it may have a big
• 29:18
  Speaker 13: political effect. The real world effect may be smaller. There's
• 29:21
  Speaker 13: also an attempt to try to pass a stock trading
• 29:23
  Speaker 13: ban here, one that originated in the House. But it's
• 29:26
  Speaker 13: also considerably watered down. It doesn't apply to the executive branch.
• 29:29
  Speaker 13: It doesn't apply to spouses and children. But it would
• 29:32
  Speaker 13: at least put them on the board trying to rein in.
• 29:34
  Speaker 13: But quite frankly, a lot of Americans disgusted by the
• 29:36
  Speaker 13: fact that members of Congress can use whatever insider information
• 29:39
  Speaker 13: they have about future legislation to bet on the stock market.
• 29:43
  Speaker 7: Weak tea, says Eric Wasson. You're breaking hearts up there, Eric.
• 29:46
  Speaker 8: There's a question about whether Democrats, weak as it may
• 29:50
  Speaker 8: or may not be, would even give John Husted that
• 29:52
  Speaker 8: win on the eve of the elections.
• 29:54
  Speaker 7: What are you hearing? Well, you know, I think.
• 29:57
  Speaker 13: Democrats are feeling very bullish about their chances. I even
• 30:00
  Speaker 13: saw a Republican-oriented poll showing South Carolina just within one point.
• 30:04
  Speaker 7: I'm a little skeptical, but I.
• 30:05
  Speaker 13: Think overall the Democratic picture is very strong. I spent
• 30:08
  Speaker 13: a significant time in North Carolina where Roy Cooper's kind
• 30:10
  Speaker 13: of running away. with the race, with Republicans basically ready
• 30:13
  Speaker 13: to cut him off. You know, Georgia also. Both candidates
• 30:16
  Speaker 13: really can't separate themselves from the president who built their brand.
• 30:21
  Speaker 13: We're seeing maybe more success from people like Susan Collins
• 30:24
  Speaker 13: in Maine. However, I was very surprised to see Friday
• 30:27
  Speaker 13: night the administration single-handedly cut a billion dollars from the
• 30:30
  Speaker 13: spending bill that she negotiated, undercutting her argument that she's
• 30:33
  Speaker 13: a powerful appropriations chairwoman. So she's in a lot of jeopardy,
• 30:38
  Speaker 13: you know, partly from the administration's actions, both on the
• 30:40
  Speaker 13: Canada trade war and this. So I think Democrats are
• 30:42
  Speaker 13: feeling bullish. But, you know, as Roy Cooper's campaign told me, don't,
• 30:45
  Speaker 13: you know, count it out.
• 30:46
  Speaker 7: Republicans have a lot of money.
• 30:47
  Speaker 13: They're going to dump billions and billions of dollars from
• 30:50
  Speaker 13: all their different sources on that race and other races.
• 30:53
  Speaker 7: So stay tuned.
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: I have to say, I was in Maine this past weekend.
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: Like every other ad on the television was either Troy
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: Jackson or Susan Collins ad. It was it was really
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: remarkable to see just the sheer saturation up there. Eric,
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: that's on the Senate side. If I could quickly ask
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: you about the House, we know that the speaker is
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: in town this week. He's partaking in the A.I. summit
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: with President Trump tomorrow. But after that, we understand he's
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: going to be on a five-week sprint to a number
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: of districts. Where is he going to be targeting most
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: of his energy in terms of trying to shore up
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: support for retention of the majority?
• 31:27
  Speaker 7: Yeah, 22 states, 40 districts.
• 31:29
  Speaker 13: It just shows how wide the map is and why
• 31:31
  Speaker 13: this is the most expensive election in U.S. history, dwarfing
• 31:34
  Speaker 13: the 2024 election just from the sheer number of battlegrounds, districts,
• 31:39
  Speaker 13: and states in the Senate side. So he's traveling all over.
• 31:42
  Speaker 13: Very important meeting tomorrow with the president, and it looks
• 31:45
  Speaker 13: like Amadei and Zuckerberg and others on AI safety. But
• 31:48
  Speaker 13: we do not expect the House to come back. They
• 31:50
  Speaker 13: may try to put something together in a lame duck session,
• 31:52
  Speaker 13: or certainly if Democrats take the majority, talk of a
• 31:56
  Speaker 13: kill switch to turn off rogue AI agents, liability perhaps
• 31:59
  Speaker 13: for AI companies. This is a very big debate, but
• 32:02
  Speaker 13: not one that's quite ripe yet for action by Congress.
• 32:05
  Speaker 13: As you mentioned, they're heading back to do their campaigning
• 32:08
  Speaker 13: ahead of the midterm elections.
• 32:11
  Speaker 7: True thing, Eric.
• 32:12
  Speaker 8: Just a few days to go. We'll stay in touch
• 32:13
  Speaker 8: with Eric Wasson live on Capitol Hill. We appreciate it,
• 32:16
  Speaker 8: as always. You can't talk about what's happening in Congress
• 32:19
  Speaker 8: without talking about the midterms. And we've got an expert
• 32:23
  Speaker 8: with us now from the Cook Political Report, which just
• 32:25
  Speaker 8: last week made some pretty big waves. It was Friday
• 32:28
  Speaker 8: when we saw Cook talk about a swing, a loss,
• 32:31
  Speaker 8: I should say, for Republicans, maybe a better way to
• 32:33
  Speaker 8: put it, of five to 15 seats. That's all that
• 32:36
  Speaker 8: Democrats would need, whether five or 15 seats. to change
• 32:39
  Speaker 8: fortunes on Capitol Hill. Much of that analysis came from
• 32:43
  Speaker 8: Aaron Covey, who is the House of Representatives editor. at
• 32:46
  Speaker 8: the Cook Political Report and joins us now live on
• 32:48
  Speaker 8: Bloomberg TV and radio.
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  Speaker 7: It's great to see you, Aaron.
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  Speaker 8: Only about five weeks to go here, and we're deeply
• 32:53
  Speaker 8: curious what you have in mind as we read from
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  Speaker 8: your analysis on Friday. The worsening political environment for Republicans
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  Speaker 8: has made GOP chances of keeping control of the.
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  Speaker 7: Chamber almost impossible.
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  Speaker 8: With such a short period of time, are you looking
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  Speaker 8: at this as a wave or something that Republicans could
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  Speaker 8: still turn around?
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  Speaker 12: Well, great to see you too, Joe. I mean, at
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  Speaker 12: this point, it is hard to see Republicans turning it
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  Speaker 12: around enough for them to keep their House majority, which
• 33:19
  Speaker 12: was already on a knife's edge at the beginning of
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  Speaker 12: 2025 before Trump's approval rating had plummeted, particularly his approval
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  Speaker 12: rating on economic issues. And at this point, Republicans have
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  Speaker 12: a lot of money that they can spend and are
• 33:31
  Speaker 12: spending in all of these House races. But I think
• 33:34
  Speaker 12: it's more of a question of how much can they
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  Speaker 12: stop the bleeding rather than can they keep majority at
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  Speaker 12: this point. So we expect that Democrats will on net
• 33:43
  Speaker 12: pick up 5 to 15 seats, which doesn't sound like
• 33:46
  Speaker 12: a lot, but would put them at 220 to 230 seats,
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  Speaker 12: which of course would be a majority at either end
• 33:53
  Speaker 12: of that scenario.
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  Speaker 5: Well, you mentioned, Erin, the president's approval rating, and it's
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: low level, the lowest we've seen across his two terms.
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  Speaker 5: Yet the president is still arguing that voters should pretend
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  Speaker 5: like he's on the ballot, like it's going to help Republicans.
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  Speaker 5: Just listen to what he said at the convention earlier
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  Speaker 5: this month.
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  Speaker 7: I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot.
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  Speaker 11: I'm on the ballot.
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  Speaker 10: I'm on.
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  Speaker 8: The ballot.
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  Speaker 7: Just one more time. Because if we lose, you're going
• 34:27
  Speaker 7: to lose your border.
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  Speaker 8: You're going to lose your tax cuts.
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  Speaker 7: You're going to lose your safety and security. You're going
• 34:34
  Speaker 7: to lose your wealth. Our country is going through hell.
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  Speaker 10: You will be going through hell just like you did
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  Speaker 10: just two years ago.
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  Speaker 5: Is the chance of losing all of that, to use
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  Speaker 5: the president's language, Aaron, greater if voters do pretend like
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: he's on the ballot?
• 34:52
  Speaker 12: Look, I think in a lot of the competitive districts
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  Speaker 12: we're talking about, Trump is underwater. And these are almost
• 34:58
  Speaker 12: exclusively districts that Trump would have won in 2024. But
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  Speaker 12: he won those districts by making gains with a lot
• 35:05
  Speaker 12: of independent voters and softer Republican voters. And those are
• 35:08
  Speaker 12: the voters, really, that Republicans are concerned are not going
• 35:11
  Speaker 12: to show up this November. The base will be there regardless.
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  Speaker 12: The folks who were tuning into the convention are going
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  Speaker 12: to be there. The people who love Trump are still
• 35:19
  Speaker 12: going to be there. But those folks who voted for him...
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  Speaker 12: in November of 2024, but may feel ambivalent or negatively
• 35:26
  Speaker 12: about him now, those are the people that Republican members
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  Speaker 12: of Congress need to persuade to still turn out and
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  Speaker 12: vote for them, even if they're dissatisfied with the president's
• 35:35
  Speaker 12: handling of the economy.
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  Speaker 8: Aaron, what's happened in the last three weeks? Is it
• 35:41
  Speaker 8: people simply paying attention post-Labor Day, or is it the
• 35:44
  Speaker 8: cost of gas and diesel that has brought this deterioration
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  Speaker 8: so precipitously to polls?
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  Speaker 12: Of course, some of it is the cost of gas.
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  Speaker 12: So that, of course, has been a factor for most
• 35:56
  Speaker 12: of this year. I think at this point, what we're
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  Speaker 12: really seeing is that pollsters have a better sense of
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  Speaker 12: what the electorate looks like right now. So we've seen
• 36:04
  Speaker 12: Democrats make gains on the generic ballot. And that just
• 36:08
  Speaker 12: shows that Republican enthusiasm is still quite low. So Republicans
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  Speaker 12: are really concerned about being able to get folks to
• 36:15
  Speaker 12: show up at the polls at this point. And, you know,
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  Speaker 12: Trump's approval rating is still in the high 30s at
• 36:22
  Speaker 12: this point. It's been there for a bit now, but
• 36:25
  Speaker 12: there is no signs of it getting any better. And
• 36:27
  Speaker 12: there's very little time for that to turn around at
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  Speaker 12: this point.
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  Speaker 5: Well, as you talk about an understanding of the electorate,
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  Speaker 5: what are we seeing demographically in terms of who comprises
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  Speaker 5: that electorate? Specifically, I'm wondering about Latino voters, Erin, as
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  Speaker 5: we know this is going to be a huge story
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  Speaker 5: in Texas and Florida, both of which redrew their maps
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  Speaker 5: in part because of the way Latino voters swung for
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: Trump in 2024. How many districts that are Latino heavy
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  Speaker 5: might actually flip the other way than Republicans were expecting
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  Speaker 5: this cycle?
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  Speaker 12: That is one of the real open questions that we're
• 37:02
  Speaker 12: looking at this cycle. And it's important to remember, it's
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  Speaker 12: not just that this is a demographic of voters that
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  Speaker 12: swung heavily towards Republicans between 2020 and 2024. These voters
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  Speaker 12: also make up a disproportionate amount of the really competitive
• 37:16
  Speaker 12: battleground districts this cycle, around a dozen of the seats
• 37:19
  Speaker 12: that we rate. have significant Latino populations. And so what
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  Speaker 12: we're seeing with these voters is that through polling and
• 37:26
  Speaker 12: through special election off-year results is there has been significant
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  Speaker 12: backlash among them to Trump's policies, both economic and immigration policies.
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  Speaker 12: And so now we see Latino majority seats that Trump
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  Speaker 12: won by double digits. and at very serious risk of
• 37:42
  Speaker 12: being lost by Republicans this cycle, which is really striking
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  Speaker 12: the amount of swing that we have seen with this
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  Speaker 12: demographic over the past decade. But it does look like
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  Speaker 12: even if Democrats aren't doing quite as well with Latinos
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  Speaker 12: as they did in 2018 or even in 2020, any
• 37:56
  Speaker 12: sort of reversion back towards them would help them hold
• 38:00
  Speaker 12: on to some of these very competitive seats and could
• 38:02
  Speaker 12: help them flip some as well.
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  Speaker 8: At what time on election night Aaron, are we going
• 38:08
  Speaker 8: to know? Will it be the East Coast time zone?
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  Speaker 8: Will it be the Central time zone when you do
• 38:14
  Speaker 8: a David Wasserman and say, I've seen enough?
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  Speaker 7: When will we know the majority for the House?
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  Speaker 12: I think it's too soon to tell at this point,
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  Speaker 12: but I will say that a lot of these highly
• 38:25
  Speaker 12: competitive races are in Texas in the central time zone
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  Speaker 12: or in the Midwest, some of which is also in
• 38:31
  Speaker 12: the central time zone. So I'm not sure we're going
• 38:33
  Speaker 12: to have a lot of information in the early hours
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  Speaker 12: of the evening, but I don't think it'll take too
• 38:38
  Speaker 12: long for this to ultimately be called.
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  Speaker 5: I'm curious, finally, Erin, as we consider what results we
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: will get in the early hours of the evening in
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: a state like New York, for example, where we have
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: an incumbent like Mike Lawler, who, of course, is running
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: against a Democratic.
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: Challenger, and Kate Conley.
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: And Kate Conley hasn't drawn the kind of resources from
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: the party at a national level that you might expect
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  Speaker 5: for a race that competitive. Is that telling to you
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: as we look at where Detrip, for example, is choosing
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: to invest at this stage versus not?
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  Speaker 6: Is that indicative?
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  Speaker 12: Look, I mean, Democrats have less money than Republicans, both
• 39:13
  Speaker 12: at the party committee level and also largely at the
• 39:16
  Speaker 12: super PAC level. And that is a real barrier for them.
• 39:19
  Speaker 12: I do not doubt that Democrats are going to spend
• 39:21
  Speaker 12: a lot of money to try to out-slaw this cycle
• 39:24
  Speaker 12: because at the end of the day, even if he
• 39:26
  Speaker 12: does overperform Trump quite a bit in his district, he
• 39:29
  Speaker 12: is still in an incredible position. difficult district to hold.
• 39:31
  Speaker 12: It's a seat that Kamala Harris would have narrowly carried
• 39:34
  Speaker 12: in 2024. And so I think he is going to
• 39:37
  Speaker 12: get a lot of incoming over the next couple of weeks,
• 39:40
  Speaker 12: even if it might have been slower to start. On
• 39:42
  Speaker 12: Democrat side, as it has been in some of these
• 39:44
  Speaker 12: other races. And I do think that aside from Lawler,
• 39:48
  Speaker 12: you have quite a few other Republican incumbents in very
• 39:51
  Speaker 12: competitive races that have been facing attack ads from Democrats
• 39:55
  Speaker 12: for months now, even since before Labor Day. And so, yes,
• 39:59
  Speaker 12: Democrats are being outspent, but they should have enough money.
• 40:02
  Speaker 12: to heavily contest all of the races that are going
• 40:05
  Speaker 12: to ultimately determine whether or not they have a majority
• 40:08
  Speaker 12: or not. They may just not have the money to
• 40:10
  Speaker 12: go into some of these reach seats, however, that Republicans
• 40:13
  Speaker 12: are going to be able to defend. So the money
• 40:16
  Speaker 12: helps Republicans stave off some really detrimental losses. But I
• 40:22
  Speaker 12: think in terms of the center of the House battleground,
• 40:24
  Speaker 12: those 21 seats that we have rated as a toss-up,
• 40:26
  Speaker 12: Democrats should have the money to contest those.
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  Speaker 10: All right.
• 40:30
  Speaker 6: Erin Covey.
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  Speaker 5: Covering the House at the Cook Political Report. Thank you
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: so much for joining us. It always comes back to
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: the money. Good thing money and politics are what we
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: do here.
• 40:41
  Speaker 8: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
• 40:44
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• 40:47
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• 40:50
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• 40:54
  Speaker 8: at Bloomberg.com.