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A Crash Could Be Coming But Not for the Reason You Think! · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the strength of the market, and a
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: few interesting things are so on Instagram put in the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: group chat so S and P five hundred relative to
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: M two money supply is almost exactly where it was
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: at the dot com bubble. And then also the SNP
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the dot com bubble overall chart laid over the current
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred chart, it's almost exactly the same.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So a lot of people are starting to say this
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: looks a lot like the dot com bubble, and a
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: market crash is coming.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: With all the kindness and love in my heart for
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: me to you, from Santel to you, if you think
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: a crash is coming this year, you're missing it will
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: have come next year.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: The great part about my thesis about people say why
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: invest in two index funds if they hold the same
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: companies team clipped us up. I've always said for mitigation
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to risk. Notice when software stocks were down twenty to
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: thirty five percent to fifty five percent, the SMP was
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: only down three percent and everyone was panicking like it
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: was nineteen ninety nine or two thousand and one. I
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: will say, despite the difference between ninety nine and now,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: is that companies okay think about it this way. I
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: criticize Apple while being at four trillion in ninety nine,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: you couldn't put six companies together that was half as
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  Speaker 2: good as Apple's fifth competitor. The strength of the market
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: is better because the companies are better. Look at Anthropic,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: and despite all the stuff I've said about Sam Autman
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: and that's been revealed and the book that's come out
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: and all the investigative journalism, that company's worth a trillion,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: Anthropics worth a trillion, SpaceX worth it pre Ipo.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Maybe two twion, arguably right.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: So the strength of the companies are better than we've seen.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: And you can't leave out Google, or you can't leave
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: out Lily. You can't leave out There's a bunch of
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: companies if you go down the list of Dow, the
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: S and P, the NASAC that are just are like
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: some of the highest grade of company that we've ever seen.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: So the comparison would be false. And wishing for a
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: crash does work for you. It does nothing even if
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: we let's say we dropped fifty percent. You know, like,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: if I can be very honest tonight, you know who
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: doesn't give a damn about a cris The people who've
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: been invested in the last thing years. A fifty percent
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: drop means shit. If you're up to twenty five hundred percent,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: three thousand percent, Like the people who got an Expedia
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: in nine twenty two, they don't care about a drop.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: That's why length of hold. Like for you guys, it's
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: already been with seven years. I don't think y'all selling
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: it the next three. Why because you've extrapolated what the
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: IP is going to be worth in twenty two years.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: So I think everyone who wishes for a crash are
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: only the people who've been sitting.
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: On the sidelines.
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: I think I'll say this. I say I'll say that
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: they do care if there is a crash. From the
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: standpoint of great, here comes a new entry point for.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Us to talk about it.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: There's gonna be another Yeah.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: I think the dot com era is hugely different, and
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: I think you kind of touched on it. But when
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: you look at the revenue that these companies are bringing in,
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: that that changes it. When you're talking about Apple and Video, Broadcom, Amazon, Google,
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: you're talking about meta trillion dollar company. Might send No.
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: I mean Micro is not even a trillion dollar company yet, right,
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: But we've been in this company since it was one
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: hundred billion is probably sitting at about five hundred billion.
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: Now this is not even that two hundred billion. Yet
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: there's so much more growth for these companies. The demand
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: has not changed, and we're still at the start of
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: a revolution. I think that's what makes it very different
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: from from the dot com bubble and this we're going
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: to see every.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: I was the start of a revolution too true dot
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: com I was saying we have to start a this revolution.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: But the demand is there and we're starting to see
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: now companies that are about the IPO that are going
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: to have some of the answers of how we now
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: monetize it. Right, Like I personally just upg like Claude
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: it's out of.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Grade right the run that they've been on. Right.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: I started out as a nineteen dollars subscriber to Claude Pro.
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: I've recently upgraded to a two hundred dollars subscriber to
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: monthly Why because of how I'm using it on a
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: functionality basis, So that starts to tell like, here's the
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: story of how we can now monetize on some of
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: the AI that we're using. Minstrel is doing it in
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Europe there are more stories coming out.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: We already talked about Man and what metas.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: Doing, so the use case is slowly starting to creep
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: into the story. Quarter after quarter, we keep thinking, Okay, well,
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: the demand's going to change. The demand's going to change
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: in every quarter that we've seen, and we're going to
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: see big companies coming up next week that the megacap
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: companies will be reporting. I know this something that's gonna
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: be reporting this week as well. That hasn't changed, right,
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: we just saw TSM demand is actually tripled.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Well, would you say, would you say some of the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: best companies in human history came out of the dot
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: com era?
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  Speaker 3: A few, a lot of them. A few, I think
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: there's and there's more.
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: Grateful Yeah, well, Amazon, Google tail En, Amazon for.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Sure part of the dot com era. Yeah, I'm just
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: saying Google changed the world. It's comparable to it's comparable.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: It birthed some of the strongest companies ever. It revolutionized
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: the world, started a revolution. A lot of the same
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: talking points you can say about the burn like dot
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: com wasn't like NFTs, like.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, no, no, it was there was there
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: were a lot of companies that that bust the Roil
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: Time Warner merger.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: But the key is why did they bust why poles?
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: Because of the revenue?
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  Speaker 4: Right were they bringing in revenue quarter to quarter to
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: quarter to quarter? Was there a demand for their services?
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: There might have been a demand, and it might have
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: been an influx of companies and try to create the
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: demand exactly. And that that's the difference. Right, So when
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: we're looking at demand, we can clearly see it. How
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: do we see it because we're watching it being spent
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: with a lot of these AI companies. There's a reason
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: why Broadcom is now almost a two trillion dollar company.
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: There's a reason why TSM is having this this triple
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: increase in demand. Where it's the reason why ASML is
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: shipping out machines to a point where they can't even
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: meet demand at this point.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Let's let's and and that's just from the AI infrastructure.
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: If we start talking about energy, if we start looking
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: at the ge Venova's and we're going to talk about
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: few other energy companies, this demand there, this demand for infrastructure.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: There's a huge revolutionary demand that's happening.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: That makes it a little bit different because of the
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: revenue that's being brought into these companies.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: The question is why did they bust though?
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: Hey yo, but.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: Reach out to your point. Though I would argue even
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: in this.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: American pie.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: Yo, I love the show, Yo, we need you. But
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: in this AI era, there's a few companies I think
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: that will suffer the same fate as some of the
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: ones Andy dot Com era. If you look, WorldCom was
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: a part of that, Excite, webbam e Toys, Pets, dot Com,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Geo Cities, Netscape, who's acquired by a O L. The
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: prominent players that came out of it was Amazon, Google
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  Speaker 2: Video until they'll compact one under. So you're going to
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: have attrition like the premise of look look what you
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: just said?
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  Speaker 3: You say in video? Google put an asterisk.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: Tell more death and in that dot Com era and
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: a bunch of money wasted though there's a.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Lot there's a lot of death in this in this era,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: the kream Warri's Gonna Ross. There was a lot of
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: great rappers of New York in the nineties, but there
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: was ten thousand rappers in New York that never made
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: That was a bust.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: Is it is? Are you putting it in video because
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: of I p O during that era.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Because video was not a darling in the two thousands.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: Right, it's not, it's not, but it came out of
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: that era.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: It came out of it. You you can argue there
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: were probably four to five great companies versus my math.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Maybe I think it was one hundred and twenty two years.
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: What we're saying, the years are for the dot com
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: era ninety let's go.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: Ninety six or two thousand or pre war tracing, so
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: two thousand and one.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, so then Google doesn't IPO to two thousand and six, right,
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: so we don't that metas twenty twelve.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't say what I'm saying, but medas a
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: social media company, Google is a dot com company.
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  Speaker 3: But Google is the two thousand and six, So.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Technically is ninety five to two thousand. It was like
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: when we were in high school. Two thousand and one
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: is like Intel out there. Microsoft benefited the Microsoft IPO.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: And here's the.
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: Other argument too, This revolution has helped those dot com
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: So a company.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: Like Dell wasn't were left.
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: Dell has completely changed their business strategy. Right, And we
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: were talking about this company a year ago and I said, look,
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: this is not the Dell computers that you thought. This
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: is an AI story now right, they're doing the racks,
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: they're figuring out how they're going to manage and utilize
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: AI to the point now they hit.
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  Speaker 3: A fifty two week high today.
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: This is that was a company that you wouldn't even
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: think of when you were talking and now there is
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: a craze so that some companies will not make it.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: We saw all Buri saying, hey, we're going aim bubble.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: Indicator.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: That that doesn't help our argument.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: Right when you're talking about a company that didn't really
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: move when they were selling their own product now going
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: into AI.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: Okay, that there's a case there for that.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: And then there's also geopolitical risk that we can't account for.