Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 8/3/2026 with Jed Sidwell | The Update You Need to Start Your Week

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 8/3/2026 with Jed Sidwell | The Update You Need to Start Your Week · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Monday, we're going to talk about select beef.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a grain in the grain crush.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: We don't talk about all that much.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of a mixed bag in the livestock space last week.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle were mostly unchanged across the board.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: October was down 20 cents at 227 and a quarter.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were up$1.33 at$3.43.78.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Lean Hogs up a buck and a half at$84.85.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the markets here live with our quotes from plus$500.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: T4 plus$500 trading software is what we use here at Ag Bull.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Trading corn September contract is at$437.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans are at$11.62.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat was mostly unchanged overnight at$6.38.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: The big thing that changed overnight, and I don't have a slide for today, but I dang sure wanted to bring it up.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Oil, man, it gapped lower last night on the open.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the September contract, it is at$78.98 right now.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Fell from$85 all the way down to below 80.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Big, big jump there overnight based on you know politics and policy and attacks over there in the Strait of Horror Moose.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: We won't get into that today.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: I've been talking about it quite a bit here recently.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: On to our weather discussion.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Active uh wet corn belt pattern continues to be a flood risk.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's that purple spot over there over Iowa and Chicago and things like that.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: It has just been a rainy, dreary weekend.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Saturday, I spent some time in west central Illinois, and it was like Forrest Gump describing all the different kinds of rain.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: They got them all down there.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, look out for some of that flood risk there.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: The Southern Plains, though, I know I wear my Oklahoma State shirt quite a bit on this show.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's because I'm an alumni of there and talking to some of my cow calf buddies down in Oklahoma.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Man, it's been awful dry and awful hot for the past couple of weeks with no relief in sight.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: So say your prayers for them down there.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Europe has a very similar story to Oklahoma.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: It is hot and dry over there as well, having a big effect on their crops.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the grain discussion that I alluded to is canola.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: We don't talk about that a whole lot, but Canada crushed a record 1.169 million tons of canola in June.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: The daily rate up nearly 10% over the old record.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the grain crush came out on Friday, and we were all talking about soybeans, but man, canola kind of stole the story.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: This is driven by Cargill and Lewis Dreyfus's capacity and China's zero tariff on canola meal through the end of the year.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: That is a big jump to that red dot up there in the top right corner.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock discussion.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Recently, I had a fellow ag teacher friend of mine that was getting some kids ready to go to a livestock contest, and they he called me and he said, Hey, do I need to tell my kids to have some knowledge about the choice select spread?
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm like, Well, we don't kill just a lot of select cattle here.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what this chart really signals, and that's why I wanted to pop it up on here.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: Select share of the negotiated box beef loads has fallen to 15.5% this July.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's down 25% from two years ago.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: This is a genual structural shrinkage of the select pool rather than just a weird reporting quirk or a wrong number.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: That is a big fall down there, and it's because we're pushing cattle to heavier weight, we kill more prime cattle than ever.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, if we do that, we have less and less selects.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: On the economic calendar today, and that's why I didn't have another outside market slide because I wanted to take some time to digest this.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: There is a lot going on today.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: The SP Global Manufacturing PMI comes out at 8 45 a.m.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: The ISM manufacturing comes out at 9, export inspections at 10.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: The fats and oils and grain crushings come out at 2.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then the crop progress comes out at 3 p.m.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Those are all central time for you guys playing along at home.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and go and follow us on all of our socials.
• 4:40
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• 4:42
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• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: And make sure to pop on over to our website and check out the premium subscription.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: We got a bit bunch of you guys hop on board over the weekend, and we're so happy to have you as a member of the Ag Bull team.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: We're only sponsored by people we like, and they don't pressure us to say anything.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: So we are free to report the news as we see it and what is actually going on in the markets, in the ag world.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: We have a plethora of different perspectives that we bring on, especially in the afternoon with Mr.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson's show.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: So go ahead and check on over on that.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Media is changing, and we really pride ourselves on trying to be on the front end of that change.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: It was great having you on this morning.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, we're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.