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SpaceX Said to File Confidentially for IPO Before AI Rivals · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am.
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  Speaker 2: YouTube through SpaceX, the startup founded by Elon Musk, the billionaire,
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  Speaker 2: has filed confidentially for an IPO. This is according to
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  Speaker 2: people familiar with the matter. Anthony Hughes is one of
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  Speaker 2: our reporters here at Bloomberg. He covers US equity capital
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  Speaker 2: Markets and he joins US now. So when a company
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  Speaker 2: files confidentially for an IPO, what exactly does that mean
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  Speaker 2: and where does that leave us in terms of when
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  Speaker 2: this company, SpaceX will go public and actually.
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  Speaker 3: List Yes, Well, really, there's a lot of steps along
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  Speaker 3: the way to going public, and for a company like SpaceX,
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  Speaker 3: which has been around for quite a long time, that
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  Speaker 3: it's been along road, but this is really the most
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  Speaker 3: definitive step you could argue in terms of going public,
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  Speaker 3: because it means that they've gone they're serious in the
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  Speaker 3: sense that they've filed a hefty document with the SEC.
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  Speaker 3: We don't get to see it yet hopefully we might
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  Speaker 3: hear about some of the things that are in it.
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  Speaker 3: But this really suggests that the deal is going full
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  Speaker 3: steam ahead, and I think all the body language we've
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  Speaker 3: seen in recent even in just the last two or
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  Speaker 3: three days, we've seen a number of stories about different
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  Speaker 3: things that are happening around the deal, and it's really
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  Speaker 3: sort of indicated that it's full steam ahead and everyone's
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  Speaker 3: pretty confident they can get this done actually by June.
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  Speaker 3: Now June is a few months away, so a lot
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  Speaker 3: of things, different things that happen. We're in a world
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  Speaker 3: where different things can change, so you know, it's worth
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  Speaker 3: being a little bit wary about how easy it's going
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  Speaker 3: to be to achieve this. But it's a monster deal
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  Speaker 3: and in some it's somewhat unprecedented in many aspects of
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  Speaker 3: this deal, so you have to take that into account.
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  Speaker 4: And the company is considering i dual class share structure
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  Speaker 4: in the IPO that would potentially give insiders such as
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  Speaker 4: elin Must extra voting power that dominique decision making. Bloomberg
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  Speaker 4: News has reported is that something that they're going to
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  Speaker 4: go to the regulators and get some feedback on because
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  Speaker 4: we've seen other media companies. Tech companies have this duor
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  Speaker 4: class stock.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so that would be very prominent in the document.
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  Speaker 3: We'll be mentioned on the cover of the document. Likely
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  Speaker 3: that would be something that would be not unexpected in
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  Speaker 3: this situation, especially when you have an IPO which is
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  Speaker 3: going to be of a is going to be very
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  Speaker 3: highly sought by investors. You tend to find that founders
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  Speaker 3: of tech companies that are large and fast growing do
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  Speaker 3: have the ability to dictate such terms, and that's been
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  Speaker 3: my experience. It's not uncommon. It's not something that corporate
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  Speaker 3: governance purists love because it means that if things go wrong,
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  Speaker 3: investors may not get to, say, have a huge say
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  Speaker 3: in any changes that they would like to see. But
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  Speaker 3: it's not surprising that that's something that would happen. And
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  Speaker 3: for Elin it might For Elon Musk, it might allow
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  Speaker 3: him to consolidate his empire somewhat.
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  Speaker 4: I'm just looking at Tesla. Thees spring for Tesla does
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  Speaker 4: not have a dual class.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, so maybe he learned from the first time. And
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  Speaker 2: of course it's not unusual for founders to launch.
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  Speaker 5: An IPO like this.
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  Speaker 2: Meta has this dual class structure as well, and it's
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  Speaker 2: fittingly that we're getting this confidential IPO on the day
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  Speaker 2: that NASA set to launch astronauts to the Moon for
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  Speaker 2: the first time in fifty years. Anthony, one thing that
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  Speaker 2: we do know about SpaceX is that it acquired Xai,
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  Speaker 2: which is Elon Musk's ai startup, you know, earlier this year.
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  Speaker 2: What does that have to do with this IPO. Why
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  Speaker 2: was that kind of a necessary step towards this IPO.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think people have different theories on that. I
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  Speaker 3: think it probably makes sense for the funding needs of
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  Speaker 3: their business to bring it into SpaceX. I think some
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  Speaker 3: people felt that that wasn't great for It's made the
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  Speaker 3: business not as attractive as a whole. But you know,
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  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, I think people are
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  Speaker 3: backing Elon Musk because of his track record.
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  Speaker 6: It's interesting you mentioned Tesla.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, that's it's just an extraordinary that we could
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  Speaker 3: go back to twenty ten when Tesla went public, it
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  Speaker 3: was I think it was a few hundred million dollar
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  Speaker 3: IPO of a company worth a couple of billion dollars.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, we're talking about such larger numbers now. But
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  Speaker 3: you know, I think Xai is you know, we're going
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  Speaker 3: to see some numbers there.
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  Speaker 6: I mean from all reports, it's.
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  Speaker 3: Been burning cash, so it's not adding to the profitability
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  Speaker 3: of the overall business, so that that is a concern.
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  Speaker 3: But I think because you know, we also expected to
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  Speaker 3: see possibly anthropic and open AI go public this year,
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  Speaker 3: I mean, there is an arms race for growing the
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  Speaker 3: AI aspects, you know, growing these businesses, and you know,
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  Speaker 3: I think SpaceX is going to be part of that.
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  Speaker 3: And you know that's obviously as a growth element to
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  Speaker 3: the business as well, but it does probably make the
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  Speaker 3: financials not look as good in the short term.
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  Speaker 5: But getting there first.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly right.
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  Speaker 4: There's been reporting that Elon may be considering kind of
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  Speaker 4: rolling up all his stuff, you know, SpaceX, maybe acquiring
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  Speaker 4: tes Love for example X. Yeah, I mean he's already
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  Speaker 4: done that. I mean, what do we know about that?
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  Speaker 4: He is Elon said anything about that?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a lot of speculation about that.
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  Speaker 3: But I think what we're seeing here is that Spasics
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  Speaker 3: is going to go public before that happens, most likely.
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  Speaker 3: I think, you know, there could be a change of plans.
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  Speaker 3: You never know, but it doesn't there's sort of there
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  Speaker 3: does seem to be there could be some industrial logic
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  Speaker 3: in Elon Musk having all of his businesses in one
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  Speaker 3: listed entity. But you know it may be for different
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  Speaker 3: reasons because of the way the different these businesses are
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  Speaker 3: developing and the value. You know, obviously, you know most
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  Speaker 3: companies looking to go public or always trying to maximize
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  Speaker 3: valuation and make sure they can have access to capital.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, the thing about these businesses being so large
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  Speaker 3: is they have almost I mean, for all the ups
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  Speaker 3: and downs of Tesla over the years, Elon Musk has
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  Speaker 3: demonstrated he's has unlimited access to capital. And this business
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  Speaker 3: is going to have a good access to capital, which
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  Speaker 3: is going to allow allow them to do many things.
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  Speaker 6: That's the benefit of size and scale.
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  Speaker 2: I know that you always look at the banks that
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  Speaker 2: get signed on to do this. SpaceX has lined up
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  Speaker 2: Bank of America, City Group, Golden Sacks, Japing, Morgan, and
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  Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley basically the five biggest bold rocket firms, the.
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  Speaker 4: Big five, So they and they're going to have dozens
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  Speaker 4: and dozens of banks around the world helping them sell
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  Speaker 4: this thing. All I know is I'm if I'm buying
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  Speaker 4: space I'm thinking that the shareholder bass is going to
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  Speaker 4: be a big overlap the people who kind of are
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  Speaker 4: in the Elon camp, they're already on test of my senses,
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  Speaker 4: they're going to be a very high crossover there between
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  Speaker 4: Tesla and SpaceX. So at some point down the road,
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  Speaker 4: particularly he has voting super voting shot shares, he might
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  Speaker 4: be able to put the companies together.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's a realm. Yeah, I think it's
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  Speaker 6: a reasonable theory. What's next here? So we when do
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  Speaker 6: we actually get to see some of the numbers?
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  Speaker 7: Do you think?
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  Speaker 6: Well?
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  Speaker 3: So, typically what happens is the filing will become public.
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  Speaker 3: Typically that you know, there'll be a strategic decision about
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  Speaker 3: when that is. But if you know, if it's the
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  Speaker 3: case that the IPO was on track to actually the
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  Speaker 3: company stocks actually on track to deabuts perhaps in late June,
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  Speaker 3: which is you know, get in.
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  Speaker 6: Before the before the before the summer, before the.
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  Speaker 2: File confidentially, then why not just make it public?
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  Speaker 3: Well, because confidentiality was originally as when it was first
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  Speaker 3: that that sec crewd the ability for companies to file confidentially,
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  Speaker 3: it was really for small companies to help you know,
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  Speaker 3: small companies go public, but it's over time it was
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  Speaker 3: extended to every company. So it was just something that
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  Speaker 3: was available to all companies. So it's something you would use.
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  Speaker 3: But yeah, and this in this case, you know it,
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  Speaker 3: it doesn't matter that much in this situation because Spaceally.
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  Speaker 3: All happen is SpaceX will now be able to go
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  Speaker 3: out and start meeting investors, and they'll be able to
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  Speaker 3: use information in that filing when they're talking to investors,
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  Speaker 3: still in a confidential way that's not really you know, public,
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  Speaker 3: but the filing of the document will allow SpaceX to
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  Speaker 3: say say lots of things to investors that they wouldn't
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  Speaker 3: otherwise be able to say. That's our understanding of the
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  Speaker 3: legal legal position there, and so you know, it's it's
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  Speaker 3: really they'll be doing a lot of testing the waters meetings.
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  Speaker 3: The meetings is supposedly starting next week and so then
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  Speaker 3: it's really full steam.
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  Speaker 6: Head here Stee with us.
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  Speaker 5: More from Boomerick Intelligence coming up after this.
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  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Shares of Nike down almost fourteen percent after its latest
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: earnings report. The last quarter was fine. It's the outlook
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: that has people a little bit concerned. Lily Meyer is
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: our retail reporter, and she joins us.
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: Actually, is she here?
• 8:31
  Speaker 6: Don't she is?
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, I'm sorry. I thought she was gonna be in studio,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: but I was wrong. Okay, Lily, great to speak with you.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: What is it specifically that Nike said that got people
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: concerned because we've been conditioned to really understand that Nike
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: is in turnaround mode, so it's not going to be
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: a straight line up.
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, and I think they're still still fair to
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: say there and turn around. What really spooked investors was
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: they shared that the outlook for revenue for the year
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: is just much lower than the street expected. They're still
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: having challenges with Converse. They're now seeing some challenges in
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: EMEYA and that's offset some of the gains in North
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: America and in the running category.
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: Lily talk to us about the inventories, because I know
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: that was a big issue for this company. Hey, let
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: us just kind of get through weaning down our inventory
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: and then we'll be in good shape. I thought they
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: were making progress there, and I think I probably I'm
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: probably representing the market here because the market, I guess
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: was surprised here talk to us about inventory.
• 9:27
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: So one place that inventories came up this quarter that
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: was interesting is they said that they're seeing some elevated
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: inventories in EMEA, in Europe, in the Middle East, and
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: they're also seeing some traffic disruption there from the war.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: What is it specifically with China that's been an issue
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: because inventories has been a problem there, But it goes
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: beyond that. I mean, it goes to a weakness in
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: consumer spending and rising competition. But Nike has been really
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  Speaker 2: struggling to get its China business. It's Greater China business
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  Speaker 2: back to what it.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, So I would say it's you know, a
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  Speaker 5: lot of increased competition there. And this quarter they did
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: show some improvement in Greater China. I think, you know,
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  Speaker 5: things turned around a little bit more than was expected,
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  Speaker 5: but still not enough to excite investors.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: And one area that's really been weak for Nike is converse.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but I love Converse sinkers,
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  Speaker 2: but I also yep exactly, and Converse sales fell more than expected.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: I think you have something like a fifteen year low
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  Speaker 2: in your stories. What is going on there because it
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: has attracted some interest.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so Converse has been one of the most stubborn
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: parts of the business to turn around under Elliott Hill.
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: So I think, you know, Nik has really relied on
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: Converse for the Chuck Taylor but has struggled to diversify
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: outside of that. So they're trying to make a basketball push,
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: but you know, we're not seeing a lot of progress
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: in that area. And you know, we reported yesterday that they,
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: you know, Authentic Brands has expressed some interest in Converse,
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: so we'll see what happens there. Nike has said, you know,
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: they're still invested in Converse, but it hasn't it hasn't
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: turned around yet.
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: You know, it's literally just for Nike overall. When I
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: think of them, I think of them as just one
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: of the great consumer product brands with just the you know,
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: the coolest, cutting edge, leading edge kind of products. It
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  Speaker 4: feels like maybe they've they've lost that is I mean,
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  Speaker 4: how concerned are people that they just kind of lost
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  Speaker 4: the feel for the market.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think innovation was definitely a concern
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  Speaker 5: prior to Elliott joining. So under John Donna. One of
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  Speaker 5: the biggest concerns was there was a lack of innovation.
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  Speaker 5: Nike was relying too much on some of their lifestyle products,
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  Speaker 5: so on the Dunks, the Air Jordan ones, the Air
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  Speaker 5: Force ones. Elliott has really refocused the business around sport
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  Speaker 5: and he's been trying to innovate in that category. Nike
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  Speaker 5: had some new product come out around the Olympics, so
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  Speaker 5: I think that's an area to watch closely, you know,
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  Speaker 5: seeing how much innovation they're able to pump out.
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  Speaker 2: And speaking of Elliot Hill, he's been on the job
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  Speaker 2: for now one and a half years. Is does he
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: own everything that's happened or does he still get a
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  Speaker 2: little bit of a pass. I mean, I imagine that
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  Speaker 2: it's frustrating for investors, is frustrating for him as well
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  Speaker 2: to kind of see this stop and start progress.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think that In one of our stories today,
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  Speaker 5: we said that shares are down more than thirty five
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  Speaker 5: percent since he started, despite him executing a new strategy.
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  Speaker 5: He you know, on a call with employees, you know,
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  Speaker 5: said he was taught so tired, you know, talking about
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  Speaker 5: fixing the business. I think he's definitely starting. It seems
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  Speaker 5: like he's starting to feel some of the frustration there
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: the business not turning around.
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: Stay with us.
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
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• 13:07
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: All right, let's switch gears and look at some other
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: companies that are on the move. And I'm paying attention
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: to our H Restoration Hardware. The stock is plunging. It's
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: down a quarter today, a quarter of its market value
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: lost just this morning. Lindsay Dutch is our consumer Hardlines
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and she joins us now.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: So this is very much a play on the consumer
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: and a higher end consumer as well. Lindsay, what do
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: we know about our H and the outlook it's given?
• 13:40
  Speaker 7: Hi, Paul, Hi Scarlett, thanks for having me. Yeah. So
• 13:43
  Speaker 7: our AH miss both on the top and the bottom
• 13:46
  Speaker 7: line when we looked at fourth quarter earnings. But I
• 13:49
  Speaker 7: think worse is when we.
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: Look at this year.
• 13:52
  Speaker 7: The outlook was well below expectations, including expecting a sales
• 13:57
  Speaker 7: decline in the first quarter. That kind of tells me
• 14:02
  Speaker 7: between the miss and the bad look for first quarter
• 14:05
  Speaker 7: that demand has really dropped and they're really going to
• 14:09
  Speaker 7: count on a big spike in the back half of
• 14:11
  Speaker 7: the year with a new collection coming to sort of
• 14:14
  Speaker 7: drive that growth heading into twenty seven. But the first
• 14:17
  Speaker 7: half of the year certainly looks challenged.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: DA how much of this You know, when we talk
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: to you about your companies that one of the questions
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: I always have is how much of this is industry
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: wide versus company specific?
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: Year?
• 14:28
  Speaker 7: Yeah, so for our age, I do think that it
• 14:31
  Speaker 7: is a company specific story.
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: When we look back at last year. They did grow.
• 14:35
  Speaker 7: Sales eight percent. That's pretty impressive in the environment that
• 14:38
  Speaker 7: they were playing in. That is above the peer average.
• 14:42
  Speaker 7: But they do play to a very niche customer and
• 14:45
  Speaker 7: they are striving to be a luxury brand, and they're
• 14:49
  Speaker 7: moves to make waves in that space. You know, do
• 14:53
  Speaker 7: cost a lot of money. They're investing very heavily. They're
• 14:56
  Speaker 7: they're opening galleries all over the globe, and I I
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  Speaker 7: think that there was just a lot of disappointment in
• 15:02
  Speaker 7: this coming year that growth might slow again and their
• 15:07
  Speaker 7: long term targets are well out of.
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: Reach, and I'm just looking at Wayfair.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Those stocks are modestly lower, Ethan Allen Interiors modestly higher.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: So I'm not sure there's much of a read through
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: to some of the other furniture companies that are out there.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: But lindsay, how much are tariffs are part of this
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: story for our h.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, so tariffs have played a piece here. They cost
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  Speaker 7: about one hundred and ninety basis points in margin in
• 15:33
  Speaker 7: the fourth quarter. Their guidance is kind of including a
• 15:37
  Speaker 7: similar hit for this coming year. The bigger thing for
• 15:41
  Speaker 7: this year, as I mentioned, is you know, tremendous investment
• 15:44
  Speaker 7: going into the business. They're expecting contra erosion in their
• 15:48
  Speaker 7: margin again this year. You know, investors aren't liking that.
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: They've kind of missed their profit goals for the past
• 15:55
  Speaker 7: year or so, and we're looking at another year of
• 15:57
  Speaker 7: heavy investment pressure on them margin, even if we see
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  Speaker 7: some of that tariff costs come down a bit, but
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  Speaker 7: it's definitely a factor. They've also talked about, you know,
• 16:08
  Speaker 7: significantly moving their sourcing around, which is part of the
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  Speaker 7: slowdown in that first quarter, you know, reworking that and
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  Speaker 7: they might have a little bit of a less product
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  Speaker 7: to sell until we get later into the year.
• 16:20
  Speaker 6: Lindsay, what are they doing with e commerce?
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Have a thing.
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: If I'm going to buy a sofa, I want to
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: go into the store and see it, sit on it,
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: that kind of stuff. Talk to us about their e
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: commerce strategy. How's that played?
• 16:30
  Speaker 7: Yeah, so e commerce is a very small piece of
• 16:33
  Speaker 7: their business and the openings that they're they're looking at doing,
• 16:38
  Speaker 7: you know in Paris and Milan. You know, they are
• 16:41
  Speaker 7: really leaning into that experiential vibe and wanting people to
• 16:48
  Speaker 7: come see their product in person, feel it, and really
• 16:51
  Speaker 7: understand the quality. So they are leaning into expansion. We
• 16:55
  Speaker 7: actually see their peer Williams Sonoma is also expanding store
• 17:00
  Speaker 7: yours for the first time in almost ten years. So
• 17:02
  Speaker 7: we're seeing some of these bigger furniture companies. You know,
• 17:06
  Speaker 7: even though they are focused on growing that online presence,
• 17:10
  Speaker 7: they really much want their customer to come into the
• 17:13
  Speaker 7: store and see the product, and they're willing to invest
• 17:16
  Speaker 7: to do that.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
• 17:23
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• 17:26
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• 17:30
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• 17:38
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