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Back in 2011, Elon Musk interview at the Clean Tech Summit!!! · Elon Musk Thinking

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  Speaker 1: If you like this episode, just like. Share and follow
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: this podcast. Thank you. Back to the show.
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  Speaker 2: From an early age, Elon Musk demonstrated that same insatiable
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  Speaker 2: curiosity and entrepreneurial spirit that we see today. At the
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  Speaker 2: age of 12, Elon made his first sale, $ 500 for Blastar,
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  Speaker 2: a computer space game. And with that sale, an entrepreneur
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  Speaker 2: was born. Elon went on to study business, and physics
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  Speaker 2: at Wharton and the University of Pennsylvania. Upon graduation, he
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  Speaker 2: entered a graduate program in applied physics and material science
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  Speaker 2: at Stanford. And Elon did what we all think about doing.
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  Speaker 2: He stayed exactly two days. Entrepreneurship couldn't wait. He went
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  Speaker 2: on to found Zip2, PayPal, SpaceX, and Tesla. And a
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  Speaker 2: lot of us juggle multiple priorities and try and be
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  Speaker 2: high achievers. Elon has truly taken it to a next level.
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  Speaker 2: He's currently the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors,
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  Speaker 2: the CEO and CTO of SpaceX, and the non-executive chairman
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  Speaker 2: and principal shareholder of SolarCity. At SpaceX, he's the chief
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  Speaker 2: designer overseeing development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to
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  Speaker 2: Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. At Tesla, he's
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  Speaker 2: overseeing product development design from the beginning. Include the Roadster
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  Speaker 2: that you see outside and the Model S sedan. Transitioning
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  Speaker 2: to a sustainable energy economy in which electric vehicles do
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  Speaker 2: play a pivotal role has been one of his central
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  Speaker 2: interests for 20 years, stemming from his time as.
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  Speaker 1: A physics student.
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  Speaker 2: Working on ultracapacitors in Silicon Valley. The awards for Elon
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  Speaker 2: are truly too numerous to name.
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  Speaker 1: I will touch on a few of them.
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  Speaker 2: Elon was recognized for his work by Research and Development Magazine,
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  Speaker 2: receiving the Innovator of the Year Award. He received the
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  Speaker 2: 2007 and 2008 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Award
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  Speaker 2: for the greatest contribution to the field of space transportation.
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  Speaker 2: In 2008, Elon was named as one of 75 most
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  Speaker 2: influential people in the 21st century by Esquire Magazine. He
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  Speaker 2: received the Aviation Week 2008 Laureate for the most significant
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  Speaker 2: achievement worldwide In the space industry, 2009, the National Space
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  Speaker 2: Society awarded Musk the Von Braun Trophy given for leadership
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  Speaker 2: of the most significant achievement in space. And in 2010,
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  Speaker 2: Elon was the youngest recipient of the Otto Executive of
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  Speaker 2: the Year Innovator Award for his work at Tesla, and
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  Speaker 2: most recently named the Time 100 for 2010. I can
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  Speaker 2: tell you as a Tesla board member, I've watched Elon
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  Speaker 2: provide not only the vision for the company, but provide
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  Speaker 2: intensely focused execution of the company's business plan and recruitment
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  Speaker 2: of the best and brightest people. I've seen an extraordinary
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  Speaker 2: leader who demands not only the best from his team,
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  Speaker 2: but backs it up by being the hardest working guy
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  Speaker 2: at the company. Now, Elon has a number of titles,
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  Speaker 2: serial entrepreneur, founder, CEO, product architect, CTO, chief designer, and
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  Speaker 2: many more. What I'm most privileged to call Elon is
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  Speaker 2: my friend. I know how difficult it was for him
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  Speaker 2: to be here today, managing two companies. I want to
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  Speaker 2: personally thank you, Elon, for the effort. Here to talk
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  Speaker 2: about entrepreneurship, what it means to prove naysayers wrong. Here
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  Speaker 2: to talk about Tesla's amazing ride and IPO. And talking
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  Speaker 2: about the clean tech's most prominent IPO, my.
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  Speaker 1: Friend, Elon Musk.
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  Speaker 3: I'll give you maybe a bit of background on why Tesla,
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  Speaker 3: why SolarCity, and some of the other things that I've done.
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  Speaker 3: And I certainly never expected to see the level of
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  Speaker 3: success that's occurred because.
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  Speaker 1: I'm actually an engineer.
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  Speaker 3: But I discovered that in order to do the engineering
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  Speaker 3: that I want to do, I have to have my
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  Speaker 3: own company. Otherwise, somebody makes me do something I don't
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  Speaker 3: want to do. So the thing that kind of unites
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  Speaker 3: the companies that I've started is.
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  Speaker 3: When I was in college, I thought about what would
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  Speaker 3: most affect the future of humanity. And the three things
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  Speaker 3: that I could come up with were the internet, the
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  Speaker 3: transition to sustainable energy, both the production and consumption of
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  Speaker 3: energy in a sustainable manner, and the third was space exploration,
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  Speaker 3: in particular.
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  Speaker 1: Making life multi-planetary. And I did not.
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  Speaker 3: Expect ever to be involved in the space side of things.
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  Speaker 3: Those were simply what I thought were most important in
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  Speaker 3: the abstract. But fortunately, by some capital I was able
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  Speaker 3: to acquire from selling some internet companies, that allowed me
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  Speaker 3: to enter the space arena. So, in fact, I originally
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  Speaker 3: came out to Silicon Valley, as Ira mentioned, with the
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  Speaker 3: intent of doing a PhD at Stanford in applied physics
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  Speaker 3: and material science.
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  Speaker 1: But really with a fairly pragmatic goal.
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  Speaker 3: Which was to try to solve the energy storage problem
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  Speaker 3: for electric cars. And I was going to pursue high
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  Speaker 3: energy density capacitors. And if anyone's looking for an idea
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  Speaker 3: that's maybe worth pursuing, I don't know whether success is
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  Speaker 3: one of the possible outcomes, but here's the idea, which
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  Speaker 3: is to use advanced chip making equipment and leverage the
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  Speaker 3: tens of billions of dollars that goes into advanced chip
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  Speaker 3: making equipment to create a solid state ultra high energy
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  Speaker 3: density capacitor. If you could do that, that would supersede
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  Speaker 3: all batteries. But again, I'm not sure success is one
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  Speaker 3: of the possible outcomes. That remains to be seen. And
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  Speaker 3: so that was my intent. I was going to basically,
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  Speaker 3: I didn't really care about the degree, actually. I really
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  Speaker 3: just needed their labs. So I knew I could get
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  Speaker 3: sort of free labs if I was a student. So
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  Speaker 3: that's actually why I was doing the grad program. And
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  Speaker 3: then in the summer of 95, it became evident to
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  Speaker 3: me that the Internet was going to be something very significant.
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  Speaker 3: And that I had the choice of either spending several
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  Speaker 3: years as a grad student and watching the Internet happen
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  Speaker 3: or taking part in it. and then circling back to
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  Speaker 3: electric vehicles later. So I thought, well, I can pursue
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  Speaker 3: a PhD in something where success may not be one
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  Speaker 3: of the possible outcomes, or I can participate in the Internet,
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  Speaker 3: which seems like a much higher likelihood of being able
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  Speaker 3: to do something significant. And that's what prompted me to
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  Speaker 3: start Zip2 with a couple other people, and then X.com,
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  Speaker 3: which later became PayPal. Fortunately, those turned out to be
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  Speaker 3: quite good. Again, I didn't expect them to be good.
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  Speaker 3: I actually expected them to fail. In fact, when I
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  Speaker 3: put my studies at Stanford on deferment, I called the
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  Speaker 3: chair of the department and said, I'm sure I'll be
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  Speaker 3: back in about three months. And he said, this is
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  Speaker 3: probably the last conversation we'll have.
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  Speaker 1: He was correct.
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  Speaker 3: So after selling PayPal to eBay, we initially took PayPal
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  Speaker 3: public in February 2002, which was quite a dark time
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  Speaker 3: for internet companies, just as last year was a fairly
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  Speaker 3: dark time for an IP or almost any company. But
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  Speaker 3: I actually do believe the market can recognize fundamentals, and
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  Speaker 3: so we took PayPal public in early 2002. and then
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  Speaker 3: sold to eBay in mid-2002. And since I was the
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  Speaker 3: largest shareholder in the company, that gave me the capital
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  Speaker 3: needed to start SpaceX and Tesla. Although not a lot
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  Speaker 3: of capital by the standards of those industries. Ultimately, after taxes,
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  Speaker 3: I had about maybe $ 180 million. And as it turns out,
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  Speaker 3: I ended up investing all of that in SpaceX Tesla
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  Speaker 3: and SolarCity. Actually got to the point where I actually
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  Speaker 3: literally had to borrow money from friends to pay the bills.
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  Speaker 1: It's a bit awkward.
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  Speaker 3: But that situation has thankfully corrected itself and with the
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  Speaker 3: Tesla IPO and whatnot.
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  Speaker 1: So let's see.
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  Speaker 3: So the story of Tesla, since this is obviously a
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  Speaker 3: cleantech forum, is sort of an interesting one. I initially
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  Speaker 3: thought that there wouldn't really be a need for a
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  Speaker 3: new company to come in and.
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  Speaker 1: Do electric vehicles, because.
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  Speaker 3: If people recall, there was the EV1, there was the
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  Speaker 3: RAV4 EV, and it looked like there was momentum in
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  Speaker 3: the direction of electric vehicles. So all that's cool, so
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  Speaker 3: there's no need for some new entrant to enter the game.
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  Speaker 1: And then.
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  Speaker 3: In a remarkable turn of events, GM and Toyota recalled
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  Speaker 3: the vehicles and GM crushed them in a lot somewhere.
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  Speaker 3: If people have seen Who Killed the Electric Car, you
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  Speaker 3: know what I'm talking about.
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  Speaker 1: I think, well, in retrospect, that was an unwise move
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  Speaker 1: for General Motors.
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  Speaker 3: And You know, if you've seen the movie, it's a
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  Speaker 3: good movie, Who Killed the Electric Car? The customers that
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  Speaker 3: had the EV1 were extremely, I.
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  Speaker 1: Mean, they loved the car.
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  Speaker 3: They loved the car to the degree that they actually
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  Speaker 3: tracked down where the wrecking yard where GM was going
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  Speaker 3: to crush the cars and held a candlelit vigil like
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  Speaker 3: it was a capital murder or, you know, somebody was
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  Speaker 3: being put to death.
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  Speaker 1: And....
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  Speaker 3: I think companies ought to take note when customers hold
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  Speaker 3: candlelit vigils for their products.
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  Speaker 1: You know, that's unusual. Particularly for a General Motors product.
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  Speaker 3: You know, I think that says maybe you should do
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  Speaker 3: an EV2 and that sort of thing. Anyway, so I
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  Speaker 3: was somewhat dismayed by that. When I learned that there
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  Speaker 3: was a small company in Southern California called AC Propulsion
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  Speaker 3: that had done a prototype, just a very sort of
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  Speaker 3: rough prototype of an electric car called the T-Zero, I
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  Speaker 3: got a test drive in the car. It clearly showed
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  Speaker 3: that the timing was right to create a compelling electric car.
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  Speaker 3: the advent of lithium-ion really being the key enabling technology.
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  Speaker 3: And so I didn't initially want to run Tesla because
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  Speaker 3: I was running SpaceX. And so I thought, well, you
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  Speaker 3: know what, I'm just going to apply 20% of my time,
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  Speaker 3: work on the product design, and then find some other
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  Speaker 3: partners to run the company. That didn't work out, unfortunately.
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  Speaker 3: And Ira is aware of the difficult issues we went
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  Speaker 3: through with the company coming very close to death on
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  Speaker 3: many occasions. And a car company is not an easy
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  Speaker 3: thing to create at the best of times. And the
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  Speaker 3: last few years were certainly not the best of times,
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  Speaker 3: particularly for car companies. And this was uh, an environment
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  Speaker 3: where General Motors went bankrupt. You know, I think people, um,
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  Speaker 3: it's the first time General Motors has ever gone bankrupt. Uh,
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  Speaker 3: and for, if, if that environment can sort of lay
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  Speaker 3: low a company like General Motors, um, you can imagine
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  Speaker 3: that it's pretty tough sledding if you're a new car
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  Speaker 3: company that nobody's ever heard of, um, and you're trying
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  Speaker 3: to sell this electric car, uh, which sounds like kind
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  Speaker 3: of crazy technology. Um, and it's a high-end two-seater sports car.
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  Speaker 3: So it was definitely some tough going there. I think
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  Speaker 3: I still have mental scar tissue, actually, from that period.
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  Speaker 3: But we managed to get through it, and narrowly, and
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  Speaker 3: managed to get some good partners on our side that
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  Speaker 3: were really key, and certainly immensely grateful to them.
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  Speaker 1: Daimler being the first, and the.
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  Speaker 3: Daimler made a key investment in Tesla in early 2009
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  Speaker 3: and also agreed to buy battery packs from us for
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  Speaker 3: their electric smart car. And that relationship has actually continued
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  Speaker 3: to grow with Daimler making some incremental investments into Tesla
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  Speaker 3: and then increasing the business as well. So now we're
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  Speaker 3: doing the battery pack and charger for the Mercedes A-Class,
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  Speaker 3: and then last year, Toyota invested in Tesla, and we'll
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  Speaker 3: be doing the whole powertrain for the electric RAV4, which
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  Speaker 3: is coming out in 2012. So that's, I think, we're
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  Speaker 3: very excited about that, and I think it's a powerful symbolism.
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  Speaker 3: It's sort of the resurrection of the RAV4 EV, and
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  Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a really compelling mass-market
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  Speaker 3: electric car.
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  Speaker 1: And then.
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  Speaker 3: For our internal development, we have the Model S, which is,
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  Speaker 3: I think, really going to be a great car. Our
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  Speaker 3: goal with the Model S is to make, well, our
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  Speaker 3: aspiration is to make the best car on the road.
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  Speaker 3: So it's a car that is supportive of almost every dimension,
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  Speaker 3: and a car that you would buy even if it
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  Speaker 3: wasn't electric. I think that's a very important distinction. You
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  Speaker 3: want people to buy the car. You don't want people
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  Speaker 3: to have to accept a bunch of negative things in
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  Speaker 3: order to be environmental. You want to create the best
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  Speaker 3: product such that even if somebody doesn't care about the environment,
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  Speaker 3: that they would still buy it. And that's really our
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  Speaker 3: goal with the Model S, to be superlative in safety,
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  Speaker 3: in ride and handling, fit and finish, performance, aesthetics, and
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  Speaker 3: it seems to be going quite well. The Audi A8,
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  Speaker 3: which is also an aluminum car, as made in Germany,
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  Speaker 3: is considered, I think, technologically the leader in vehicle engineering.
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  Speaker 3: But we think there are good arguments to say that
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  Speaker 3: the Model S is actually superior in vehicle engineering.
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  Speaker 1: To the Audi A8.
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  Speaker 3: And if you look at the objective metrics, such as
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  Speaker 3: torsional rigidity, stiffness to weight, strength to weight, the joining techniques,
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  Speaker 3: the usable internal volume.
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  Speaker 1: I think one can reasonably.
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  Speaker 3: Argue that it is going to be the most advanced
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  Speaker 3: car in the world, even aside, excluding the electric powertrain element. So,
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  Speaker 3: like I said, we want this to be the best car,
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  Speaker 3: even if it wasn't electric. And I think a lot
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  Speaker 3: of people in the room, well, most people in the
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  Speaker 3: room are American, And I think Tesla is an American
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  Speaker 3: car company you can sort of refer to, I think
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  Speaker 3: we'll think of as, hey, this is a car company
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  Speaker 3: that you.
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  Speaker 1: Can really be proud of as an American.
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  Speaker 3: Just as we're very proud of the Apples and Googles
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  Speaker 3: and whatnot, Intel, Cisco, this is a car company where.
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  Speaker 3: For the first time in a long time, the United
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  Speaker 3: States is the leader in automotive technology. And it's just
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  Speaker 3: interesting to note that you've got Daimler, the company that
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  Speaker 3: invented the internal combustion engine car, that's coming to Tesla
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  Speaker 3: and having us supply them with electric powertrain components. You've
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  Speaker 3: got Toyota, the largest car company in the world, and
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  Speaker 3: the leader in hybrids, also coming to Tesla to supply
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  Speaker 3: them with electric powertrain components.
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  Speaker 1: I think people would have.
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  Speaker 3: Had a hard time imagining that such a thing would
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  Speaker 3: occur several years ago. I encourage everyone to buy a
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  Speaker 3: Model S. I've got to sell cars. I think you
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  Speaker 3: will not regret it. I think with that, I can maybe.
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  Speaker 1: Go ahead.
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  Speaker 5: By 2020, what's your imagination about the size and weight
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  Speaker 5: of the battery?
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  Speaker 3: Well, you have to say size and weight of the
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  Speaker 3: battery for given energy density or given energy content, I guess.
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  Speaker 1: Great strides have already been made.
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  Speaker 3: The Roadster has about a 56 kilowatt hour battery and
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  Speaker 3: yields a combined highway city range of about 245 miles.
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  Speaker 3: In fact, there's some customers that have driven our car
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  Speaker 3: over 300 miles. Recently, a customer actually set the record
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  Speaker 3: and drove a Roadster for 347 miles on a single charge.
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  Speaker 3: And then the Model S will actually have up to
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  Speaker 3: a 90 kilowatt hour battery. So it's a big increase.
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  Speaker 3: But we've improved the volumetric energy density by almost 50%
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  Speaker 3: compared with the Roadster. And the gravimetric energy density by
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  Speaker 3: about 30, 35%.
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  Speaker 1: So pretty big strides in a relatively short period of time.
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  Speaker 3: And whereas the Roadster uses an almost unmodified laptop cell,
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  Speaker 3: an 18650 cell, with the Model S, we've worked closely
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  Speaker 3: with Panasonic to create a dedicated automotive cell, same form factor,
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  Speaker 3: so it can still make use of the economies of
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  Speaker 3: scale used to produce 18650 cells, but the internals are different.
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  Speaker 3: It's really well optimized for automotive. In 2020, I think
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be geez, it's going to be really
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  Speaker 3: just cheap to have a long-range battery. And I think
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  Speaker 3: all transportation is actually going to go electric. Planes, trains, automobiles, everything,
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  Speaker 3: with ironically one exception being rockets. Unfortunately, there's no way
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: to avoid Newton's third law, and you need to expel
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: high-pressure gas at high velocity in order to escape less gravity.
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  Speaker 3: But apart from that, everything is going to be pure electric.
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  Speaker 3: Not hybrid, pure electric. A prediction that I've been making
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  Speaker 3: for a while is that, and I feel very comfortable
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  Speaker 3: in making these predictions, because I think it will actually
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: occur sooner. That's why I've actually been willing to take,
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  Speaker 3: if somebody wants to bet me on.
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  Speaker 1: This, I'm happy to bet them.
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  Speaker 3: Which is that by 2030, a majority of all new
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  Speaker 3: cars manufactured in the United States will be pure electric.
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  Speaker 1: So just under 20 years.
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  Speaker 3: And 20 years after that, so by mid-century, the vast
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  Speaker 3: majority of cars on the road will be pure electric.
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  Speaker 3: It always takes time to replace the install base and
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  Speaker 3: the legacy products, but that's what I expect. And the
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: fundamental good that I hope Tesla, people will look back
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  Speaker 3: and say that Tesla achieved was that Tesla served as
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  Speaker 3: a catalyst to accelerate that transition. And I think we've
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  Speaker 3: done some good in that regard. The Chevy Volt is
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: directly inspired by Tesla, and Bob Latz at GM was
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: kind enough to credit Tesla with that. In fact, when
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: we unveiled the Tesla Roadster, he took the press release
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  Speaker 3: to his development team and said, if a little company
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: in California can make an electric car, why can't we?
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  Speaker 3: And then that led to the Nissan Leaf and a
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  Speaker 3: bunch of other electric car programs.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: Grow as a tier one supplier to Daimler, Toyota, maybe others,
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  Speaker 4: but also as you build a broader line of cars
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  Speaker 4: that compete, how are you going to manage your business
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  Speaker 4: model of both of those?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I don't think one has to create, I think
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  Speaker 3: it would be a false dichotomy to say that one
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  Speaker 3: cannot be a powertrain supplier and a car producer. We'll
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: continue to sell powertrains as long as there are companies
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  Speaker 3: that want to buy powertrains from us at a reasonable price.
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  Speaker 3: The overarching goal of Tesla is to serve as a
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  Speaker 3: catalyst to accelerate the electric car revolution.
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  Speaker 1: So we're not trying to hold our technology close to
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  Speaker 1: our vest.
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  Speaker 3: We're really trying to get it out there and do
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  Speaker 3: whatever we can to catalyze.
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  Speaker 1: The transition to electric vehicles.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: Now, there may come a point where there aren't deals
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: that people are willing to do that make sense. or
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: where we're not competitive in supplying powertrains or where the
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: other car companies just want to do it all in-house
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: or something like that, in which case we wouldn't be
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: able to do deals that make sense and we wouldn't
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: therefore do deals. We will always be a car company, though,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: and I feel very confident that we'll continue to make
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: great cars and continue to add to the innovation with
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: each successive model. At the end of this year, we'll
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: be unveiling our Model X, which is kind of an SUV.
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: Our goal will be to make something that is cooler
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: than any SUV, but has more functionality than any minivan.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: So that would be a tricky thing, but I think
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: we've got a shot at doing that.
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: Parenthetically, if you want to avoid borrowing money from your
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: friends in the future... I'm happy to buy you a
• 23:08
  Speaker 6: beer and talk about financial planning.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Thank you. That's a free offer.
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: But in all seriousness, you've had a remarkable career and
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: will probably extend this career for quite some time. Other
• 23:23
  Speaker 6: than becoming a multimillionaire and doubling down in your deals again,
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: what advice would you give to an entrepreneur and also
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: to investors you know, how you approach creating value and
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: being successful. What does it take and what would you advise?
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Well, I think it's important to have a very, to
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: apply critical thinking to, this may sound trite, but to
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: apply critical thinking to what one is doing. And by
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: that I mean just the fundamentals of logic, you know,
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: of understanding Do you have the right axioms?
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Are they relevant?
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: And are you making the right conclusions based on those axioms?
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: That's the essence of critical thinking and yet it is
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: amazing how often people fail to do that.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: I think wishful thinking is innate in the human brain.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: You want things to be the way you wish them
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: to be and so you tend to filter information that
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: you shouldn't filter. That's the most common flaw that I see.
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: And then I also tend to see that people, instead
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: of reasoning from first principles, they will tend to act,
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: they'll do things because others are doing them, because there
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: is a trend, or they just see everyone going in
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: that direction, so they think that must be a good
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: direction to go.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Which is.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: Sometimes correct, but then sometimes you know, you're going to
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: run off a cliff or something. So it's much better
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: to really look at things from, you know, as we're
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: saying physics, from a first principle standpoint. What are the
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: fundamental truths or the most fundamental truths in an arena?
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: And what can you, any conclusions, logic that you come
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: to must be derived from those fundamental truths.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Elon, I want to just, can you expand on that
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: for one minute? Because, you know, to To me, the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: inspiration of Tesla and you is about the fortitude you
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: had during tough times. You referenced it earlier, but as
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: you know, the clean tech sector has had ups, it's
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: had downs. This is a room full of entrepreneurship in
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: various forms. And the fortitude that you personally showed to
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: get Tesla through that period, and people can reference the
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: success you've had today, but talking about that fortitude and
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: not letting those naysayers get you or Tesla down I
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: think would be an important message to just talk a
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: little bit more about.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: Well, I hate to say it, but the naysayers did
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: get me down. Um, but, but, but, uh, yeah, I
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: think absolutely, um, persistence is extremely important. Um, you should
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: not give up if there is, if there's, unless you're
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: forced to give up, you know, unless there's no, no
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: other choice. Um, uh, That principle can be misapplied if
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: you happen to be trying to penetrate a brick wall
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: with your head. So you have to be cautious in
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: always saying one should always persist and never give up
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: because there actually are times when you should give up.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Because you're doing something in error.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: But if you're convinced that what you're doing is correct,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: then you should never give up. There's a friend of
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: mine who's got a good saying about starting companies, which
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: I think is true. Starting companies is like eating glass
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: and staring into the abyss of death.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: If that sounds appealing, be an entrepreneur.
• 27:12
  Speaker 7: Could you talk about job creation at Tesla and specifically
• 27:15
  Speaker 7: at the Numi plant in Fremont and how many of
• 27:20
  Speaker 7: the jobs that were lost from GM and Toyota when
• 27:23
  Speaker 7: that plant shut down think you'll be able to replace
• 27:26
  Speaker 7: in building the model last year?
• 27:28
  Speaker 8: Sure.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: Well, so Tesla's a little over 1,000 people now. We
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: actually doubled in size over the last year. We'll probably
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: come close to doubling in size again this year, maybe
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: 80% or something like that. A lot of those people
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: will be at our headquarters in Palo Alto, but But
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: the biggest area of growth will be at the Fremont factory.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: We don't call it NUMI anymore. We just call it
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: the Fremont factory. And, you know, initially with the Model
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: S and Model X, I mean, I think we'll be
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: employing maybe on the order of 1,000 people at.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: NUMI, the Fremont factory.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: But our long-term aspiration is to actually employ people as
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: many if not more people than were employed there.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: There were about 5,000 people.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: That were employed at the plant and maybe another 5,000
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: in suppliers around the Bay Area and generally in California.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: So we'd certainly aspire long-term to employ even more than that.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: And it's just going to be a function of how
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: fast we can grow the business without overreaching.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: But I'm hopeful.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: By the time we get to our third generation product,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: which would be the mass market car. So the Model
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: S is about $ 50, 000 to $ 100, 000. It's kind of like
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: a BMW 5 Series or Audi A6, A8, Mercedes E-Class,
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: that kind of thing. But our third generation car, which
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: would be on the order of $ 30, 000, obviously much more
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: of a mass market car. And we want to get
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: to that vehicle as soon as possible, but it's probably
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: about at least four years away. and that's really when
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: we'd start to get to the full employment at Fremont.
• 29:18
  Speaker 8: Certainly now you're part of the electric car industry, and
• 29:22
  Speaker 8: we've had a couple examples of the infrastructure required to charge,
• 29:26
  Speaker 8: and of course the change in the electric power sector.
• 29:29
  Speaker 8: If by 2030 we have 50% of new cars that
• 29:32
  Speaker 8: are electric, there's going to be a substantial need to
• 29:33
  Speaker 8: have a different distribution system for electric power, presumably. Do
• 29:38
  Speaker 8: you at Tesla or the broader electric car industry see
• 29:41
  Speaker 8: some kind of role in that, or do you leave
• 29:44
  Speaker 8: that to the electric power industry? And then part two,
• 29:48
  Speaker 8: we had a fairly impassioned plea from both the investors
• 29:51
  Speaker 8: and the government agencies who wield budgets as well as
• 29:55
  Speaker 8: influence over policy, that the clean tech sector is absent
• 30:00
  Speaker 8: in Washington, influencing policy, visiting senators, visiting.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Legislators, and so forth. So the question is, what's the
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: role for.
• 30:06
  Speaker 8: Tesla, both in the electrification part and then also in
• 30:11
  Speaker 8: the political process and policy process to bridge that gap
• 30:15
  Speaker 8: and get them both involved?
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Well, to answer your second question first, Tesla's certainly doing
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: everything it can to... generate awareness, um, and enthusiasm for
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: electric vehicles in DC. In fact, I'm headed to DC tonight, um,
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: and we'll be meeting with a number of senators and
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: congressmen tomorrow. Um, and then, uh, next month, Tesla will
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: be opening up its, uh, DC showroom. Um, and again,
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: we're going to have a lot of, uh, senators and congressmen, um, to,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: to that event, uh, also people from the White House.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Um, so we're really doing everything we can.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: Um, I agree it's something that's very important, um, and, uh,
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: And so we're doing whatever is within our power to
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: do in that regard. And then with respect to the infrastructure,
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: in the short term, I think there's very little need
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: for infrastructure.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Electricity is so widespread.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: And what we're seeing is that for the roadster, almost
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: all charging occurs at home and at night. So it
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: maps well. In fact, the peak of when people charge corresponds...
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: almost exactly to the trough of grid usage. And so
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: there's actually a tremendous amount of capacity in the grid
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: to charge electric cars, provided people continue to charge their
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: cars at home. Now, as we get to the point
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: where we've got half of all the cars on the
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: road or more being electric, there's certainly going to be
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: a need for grid upgrades, charging stations, and an increasing
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: need for that. But it's not something that I think
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: is very pressing in, say, the next year or two.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: We do recognize that as an important long-term thing, and
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: we are developing a high-speed charger which is capable of
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: recharging the battery pack in about 40.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Minutes or so.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: And we're going to offer that for free to our customers.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: We're going to just pick locations along the major interstates
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: every 100 miles or so where there's a decent amount
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: of traffic and just install them for free. If they
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: start to see significant usage then we might put a
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: card reader on them or something.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: But I do.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: Think that's an important thing to address so we're going
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: to address it. We're also happy to sell those fast
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: chargers to others if they want to install them in places.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: The other thing we've done with the Model S is
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: we've designed the battery pack such that it can be
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: swapped out in under a minute.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: This is in the floor pan of the car.
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure how many people will actually make use
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: of that, but we wanted to have it in there
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: just to preserve the optionality. Worst case, it makes it
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: very easy to service, very easy to install the pack
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: in the factory and that kind of thing. So, yeah,
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: between those, essentially those two things, plus offering a 300-mile
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: range car, I think we've gone a long way towards
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: addressing people's range concerns.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: In the back there. Yes. Hi.
• 33:28
  Speaker 9: I wanted to just, I was intrigued by what you
• 33:31
  Speaker 9: said about first principles and sort of using critical thinking.
• 33:36
  Speaker 9: My philosophy major's heart was warmed to hear some of that.
• 33:41
  Speaker 9: We spend a lot of time, those of us who've
• 33:42
  Speaker 9: been through the entrepreneur and to the investor cycle spend
• 33:45
  Speaker 9: a lot of time trying to get people with great
• 33:48
  Speaker 9: ideas to reduce them to things like that. I'm wondering
• 33:52
  Speaker 9: if you have any suggestions reading educational materials or place
• 33:55
  Speaker 9: people who are struggling with how to make their big
• 33:58
  Speaker 9: idea or at least evaluate whether they can get it
• 34:00
  Speaker 9: done to sort of construct from the ground up a
• 34:05
  Speaker 9: path that at least has, as you said, success as
• 34:08
  Speaker 9: one of the possible outcomes.
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, actually that's where physics is really helpful, except
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: in unexplored areas of physics, or difficult to explore, is
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: physics is very helpful for figuring out whether you're violating
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: one of the, say, the fundamental laws, like are you
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: conserving momentum and energy? If you're not, then you probably
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: are not gonna be successful. Or if you think you're not. So, yeah,
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: but I think, I think one thing, Try to get
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: to a useful prototype as soon as possible with the least.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Amount of money. I think that's usually a good idea.
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: Everything works on PowerPoint, and so people are somewhat skeptical
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: if they see a PowerPoint presentation or a website or something.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: But if they see the actual hardware and it's working,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: that is much, much more convincing. That's why the first
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: thing we did with Tesla was to create a prototype
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: roadster that was the first order of business. to show
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: people that it was real and it actually did work.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: And even though it was somewhat of a hack, it
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: still gave people the feeling of what it could be.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: So I think generally that's a good move.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: It also will help identify if what you're trying to
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: do is impossible or extremely difficult or something like that.
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: As an entrepreneur, I'm sure you value working in a fast-paced, dynamic,
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: and challenging environment. but sometimes that doesn't scale very well.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: And now that both Tesla and SpaceX are well over
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: 500 employees each, I'm curious if you can speak to
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: the challenges of making that transition and how you preserve
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: that fun environment, if you do at all. I'm assuming
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: you try.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: Certainly try. Yeah, it's a good question. I'm assuming that
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: I don't initially have a great answer for. I think
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: as the companies get bigger, it's harder and harder to
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: maintain a sort of a fun, dynamic feeling and to
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: avoid being sort of a soul-destroying corporation. I think it's
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: important to allow for a certain amount of chaos in
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: an organization. If you try to impose too much structure
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: or if you don't allow failure, if there's... A lot
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: of companies, particularly as they get bigger, tend to have
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: a risk-reward asymmetry.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Failure is severely punished. Success is moderately rewarded.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: And that's not a good idea if you want to
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: be innovative because by its very nature, innovation will result in.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Many attempts that don't work. So I.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Think Google's been pretty good at this by allowing people
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: to take you know, Friday every week and work on
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: some crazy project. Um, I think that's a good idea. Um,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: I think we were probably going to implement something like
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: that at SpaceX and then later at Tesla.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Um, uh, because I think it's, there's a lot, a.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: Lot of employees have great ideas if they can simply, uh,
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: get the resources to, to implement them and if they
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: aren't filtered through their manager. Um, so, uh, and, and
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: then I think just generally just, you know, trying to
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: be a little bit irreverent, um, to encourage people to do,
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: you know, eclectic odd things, um, and that, that's okay. Um,
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: there's not going to be some sort of conformist police that,
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: you know, comes, uh, chasing you down. Uh, if, for example,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: when we just did the launch of, uh, Falcon 9,
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: and the, and the normal launch of our Dragon spacecraft, uh,
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: we had a secret payload on board. Um, it was,
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: in fact, a stamped tough secret on the outside. Um,
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: It was a wheel of Bruyere cheese. I don't know
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: if anybody's heard the Monty Python cheese shop sketch, but
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: it's sort of a tribute to Monty Python in this case.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Sorry, hello?
• 38:22
  Speaker 10: Yeah, just one quick question, Elon. Earlier in your talk,
• 38:26
  Speaker 10: you described three big trends that you observed in the
• 38:29
  Speaker 10: 90s around the internet, around space, around the energy system.
• 38:33
  Speaker 10: Has any of that changed? Would you add to that
• 38:35
  Speaker 10: list or do you think you're still in the right place?
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: No, I think those are the three big areas that
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: will most affect the future of humanity and there are
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: many others and other people may come up with a
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: different list. That was just the list that I came
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: up with. I do think there's a great deal of
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: innovation that's going to occur in biotech, particularly with rapid, low-cost,
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: perfect decoding of DNA. I think that's going to be
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: really revolutionary as far as diseases and potentially accelerated evolution
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: in some way. Well, that's a touchy subject. But that's
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: certainly the potential for a huge change there on the
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: DNA side. But I think overall, for the 21st century,
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: the biggest single problem that humanity faces is sustainable production
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: and consumption of energy. And there's so much, I mean,
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: that's such a huge problem that there's so much that
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: can be done in that arena that, I mean, it's
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: really more than enough to absorb I think, any number
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: of startups and companies because it's such a tough problem
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: and it's such a big problem. There's so many uses
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: of energy that need to be sustainable. Tesla's working on cars,
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: but there's boats, there's planes, there's also some other mobile
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: transport things. And then production of energy is also going
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: to be a tough one. We obviously can't keep using
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: hydrocarbons to generate electricity.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: That's not sustainable.
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: Whatever one may think about the climate debate, I think
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: it's probably not a good idea to run the experiment
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: of seeing how much CO2 the atmosphere can hold. Because
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: even if it's 99% likely to be okay, that's.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Still not good.
• 40:48
  Speaker 11: Tesla is not just an automotive company. It is also
• 40:52
  Speaker 11: a vehicle distribution company.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 40:54
  Speaker 11: So far, you've retained ownership of your entire distribution channel.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 40:59
  Speaker 11: As you grow into the rest of the world, is
• 41:01
  Speaker 11: that intended to be something you hold to or something
• 41:04
  Speaker 11: you diversify?
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: No, yeah.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: Our current plan is to do sales and service within
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Tesla as company-owned stores.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Because I think the....
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: The car buying experience and servicing experience is generally not great.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: In fact, most people would probably rank going to buy
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: a car as their worst retail experience. So it's really
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: important that I think we fix that situation. And we've
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: got some ideas that I think are going to make
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: it a lot more appealing and pleasant to own a car.
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: And we want to implement those ideas. And I think
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: the way that Apple has done their stores is a
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: really good way. And in fact, the guy that really
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: led the charge on Apple stores, George Blankenship, is our
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: head of sales. And we're still a long way from
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: perfecting the buying and servicing experience. But I think you're
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: going to see some dramatic improvements in the coming years
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: that are not like any other car buying or servicing experience.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Last question.
• 42:23
  Speaker 11: As an entrepreneur, uh, when you get up in the morning,
• 42:26
  Speaker 11: what excites you?
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: And when you go to bed at night, what keeps
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: you up?
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: Um, well, you know, like I said in the beginning, I'm,
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: I'm really primarily an engineer. So, uh, I enjoy engineering. That's,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: that's what I derived the most intrinsic satisfaction or happiness from. So, uh,
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: In fact, I happened to be up until 5 a.m.
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: this morning working on an engineering problem for an improvement
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: to the rocket, which I think will be.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Good, hopefully. Otherwise, there's a lot of wasted sleep. So
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I really like.
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: Working on engineering problems, particularly with my engineering teams, and
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: coming up with innovative ideas.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: And Thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.