Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive -- 2/10/26

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive -- 2/10/26 · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 2: Chuck Ingram fifty five krs the talk station.
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  Speaker 1: Hey, thirty one Tuesday, it is the time we do
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  Speaker 1: a Daniel Davis deep dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: You can find his podcast where we get your podcasts.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Just search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Welcome back, my friend.
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  Speaker 1: It is always a distinct pleasure to have you on
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  Speaker 1: the fifty.
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  Speaker 3: Five KRC Morning Show, sir, and a distinct pleasure to
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  Speaker 3: be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.
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  Speaker 1: All right, it seems to me we've gone down this
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  Speaker 1: road before negotiating with Iran over nuke's missiles generally speaking,
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  Speaker 1: although I read this morning that the Iran Foreign Minister said, well,
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  Speaker 1: Iran will not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, which
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  Speaker 1: is a core US demand. So where are we, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: We got all the military resources you know, all around
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  Speaker 1: the area, aircraft, carriers and battleships, and we've got subs,
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  Speaker 1: and it looks like we're getting ready to go into war,
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, And I know we have to have a
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  Speaker 1: strong military presence to back up whatever we are trying
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  Speaker 1: to get them to concede to. But they're threatening all
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  Speaker 1: of our military bases. In general, chaos in the Middle
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  Speaker 1: East at large, people are definitely going to die. So
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  Speaker 1: I don't know we've got a stronger military, but they've
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  Speaker 1: certainly are in a position to provide some massive chaos
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  Speaker 1: and destruction.
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  Speaker 4: So what is going on?
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  Speaker 1: Here Daniel Davis boiling it down.
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  Speaker 3: You know what, that's that's a really good question to
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  Speaker 3: be asking. And I would love it if more people
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  Speaker 3: in the White House were apparently asking all of those questions,
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  Speaker 3: and not just the ones that should we or shouldn't
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  Speaker 3: we attack Iran?
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  Speaker 4: But what's gonna happen next?
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  Speaker 3: Listen, Heading into the last the nearly direct conversations that
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  Speaker 3: we had in the Middle East with Iran, between the
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  Speaker 3: United States and Iran, you had Secretary of State Rubio
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  Speaker 3: go on and explicitly say, there are four conditions that
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  Speaker 3: we have to meet for these negotiations.
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  Speaker 4: They have to have enrichment.
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  Speaker 3: They have to have the nuclear program, well the nuclear
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  Speaker 3: not weapons because they claim they don't have those, but
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  Speaker 3: the missile program, the proxies, and they can't kill their people.
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  Speaker 3: He said, those four things were the things that they
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  Speaker 3: had to talk about Iran before the talk said we
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  Speaker 3: ain't talking about any of that stuff. We're going to
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  Speaker 3: talk about we'll we'll talk about the enrichment portion and
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  Speaker 3: will minimize it or reduce it if there's a good deal.
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  Speaker 3: And they specifically said, listen, there has to be a
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  Speaker 3: win win here. You have to give us some in
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  Speaker 3: order to get something. But we're at least willing to
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  Speaker 3: talk about that one thing. And so I don't understand
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  Speaker 3: why we're entering into that with any other expectations, because
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  Speaker 3: it would make no sense for Iran to negotiate away
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  Speaker 3: it's missile forces and it's proxy because those are the
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  Speaker 3: absolute two central pillars upon which their entire national defense
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  Speaker 3: is predicated. So you would literally be asking them to
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  Speaker 3: surrender all their ability to defend themselves for nothing in return,
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  Speaker 3: and no one's going to do that.
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  Speaker 4: So, yes, Iran.
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  Speaker 3: Has logically said, if you attack us anyway, then we
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  Speaker 3: do have this capability. And this is this is not
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  Speaker 3: a promise, this is a demonstrated capability. They have the
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  Speaker 3: ability with these ballistic weapons, lots of swarming drones, they
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  Speaker 3: can cause tremendous amounts of damage and destruction if we
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  Speaker 3: are if we attack them. But they said, for sure,
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  Speaker 3: we don't want a war. We will not attack anyone
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  Speaker 3: unless we're hit. So that has to factor in with
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  Speaker 3: what the White House is doing. And I'll just be
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  Speaker 3: frank with you, Brian, I see zero upside for the
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  Speaker 3: United States and launching an attack on Iran, and lots
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  Speaker 3: of downside and we may not be able to coerce
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  Speaker 3: them into what we want, even if we unleash Holy Hell,
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  Speaker 3: as Trump has called it, because we have no ground component,
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  Speaker 3: and it's just remarkably difficult to get all of the
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  Speaker 3: offensive missiles which are now spread all throughout their huge
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  Speaker 3: country three or four times bigger than in Iraq.
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  Speaker 4: If you can believe that ninety million.
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  Speaker 3: People and then think that you're gonna knock all that
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  Speaker 3: stuff out and you're gonna be able to defend against
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  Speaker 3: their ballistic missiles that are coming back, and we can't.
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  Speaker 3: We can diminish them, but we can't knock them all out.
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  Speaker 3: Our air defenses at Israel's air defenses are not that good.
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  Speaker 3: And that's where we are. So I guess where does
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  Speaker 3: this leave us? Because you know, a lot of my
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  Speaker 3: listeners are clamored to just go ahead and draw bombs
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  Speaker 3: on them, and I'll go back to the Constitution because
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  Speaker 3: you and I had a conversation about this. This would
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  Speaker 3: be launching a war, right, I mean, is there any
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  Speaker 3: other way of looking at it? This isn't like not
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  Speaker 3: this is not even like the you know, the so
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  Speaker 3: called twelve Dy war, which is primarily Iran in Israel,
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  Speaker 3: and then we came in one day and actually about
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  Speaker 3: a two hour time frame and hit a bunch of
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  Speaker 3: specific targets related to their nuclear program.
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  Speaker 4: That was what that Now.
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  Speaker 3: I think that qualified then too because you attacked in
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  Speaker 3: it to a foreign country. But this one, what we're
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  Speaker 3: talking about is an outright war. I mean, it's talking
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  Speaker 3: about you have all this combat power, you're talking about
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  Speaker 3: taking out the regime. That's that's one of the stated
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  Speaker 3: objectives by many close to the to the White House
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  Speaker 3: saying that this is all about regime change. And you
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  Speaker 3: destroy the Irgc, the political leaders, the missile forces, their navy.
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  Speaker 4: That's a war.
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  Speaker 3: And so unless we're gonna just say the constition no
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  Speaker 3: longer cares, no longer matters, and we will just blow
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  Speaker 3: it off, we have to get a congressional declaration before that,
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  Speaker 3: but of course we're not going to.
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  Speaker 4: So that is by itself a concern in my view. Well,
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  Speaker 4: let me ask you this.
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  Speaker 1: If Iran is capable of unleashing this holy hell and
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  Speaker 1: shooting its ballistic missiles at all of our military bases
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  Speaker 1: or whatever, I mean, clearly some are going to get through.
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  Speaker 1: I acknowledge that and agree with it all day long.
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  Speaker 1: Why didn't they do that in response to the Twelve
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  Speaker 1: Day War when we bomb the crop out of their
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  Speaker 1: nuclear facilities.
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  Speaker 3: That's like big It is a good question, and there
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  Speaker 3: is a definite answer. At that time what we said
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  Speaker 3: we were going after the nuclear program alone. This time
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  Speaker 3: we're signaling its regime change. So Iran had every incentive
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  Speaker 3: in the world to mitigate and moderate their response then,
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  Speaker 3: because they definitely did not want to precipitate in all
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  Speaker 3: that war with the United States because they knew that
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  Speaker 3: over time we could probably either cause profound damage or
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  Speaker 3: possibly even destroy them, so they didn't want to do that.
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  Speaker 3: This time, we're telling them ahead of time, you don't
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  Speaker 3: have any reason to withhold anything, because we're trying to
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  Speaker 3: flat out destroy you and kill your leaders and destroy
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  Speaker 3: the regime completely. So now then they have every incentive
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  Speaker 3: to launch everything they have and hold nothing back, because
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  Speaker 3: what goods do to have a missile force if your
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  Speaker 3: leaders are dead and you don't even get to use it.
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  Speaker 4: That's the big difference here.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and we've commented you and I have talked about
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  Speaker 1: many times and that we have a limited amount of hardware.
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  Speaker 1: This has been a situation with Russia and Ukraine as well.
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  Speaker 1: I mean there's only a fine out amount of resources.
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  Speaker 1: I would imagine that Iran is probably a lesser position
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  Speaker 1: with the finite amount of resources. They only have so
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  Speaker 1: many rockets they can launch and so many sites that
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  Speaker 1: they can attack if we ended up in a conflict,
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  Speaker 1: Not that I want to go down that road, Daniel Davis,
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  Speaker 1: but don't we I mean, can't we win? If we're
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  Speaker 1: talking about like a a sort of like a war
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  Speaker 1: of attrition? Could they re up their stockpiles? Is China
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  Speaker 1: or Russia going to be involved in this? I mean
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  Speaker 1: it's a lot of layers. It depends on what we're
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  Speaker 1: willing to do politically. If you're saying we're willing to
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  Speaker 1: spend six nine months, maybe a year a year of
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  Speaker 1: high intensity conflict and all of the casualties that would
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  Speaker 1: come with that, then yes, they have a fine out
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  Speaker 1: amount and we have more. But we have global requirements
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  Speaker 1: as well, and so you would have to say, how
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  Speaker 1: many missiles can our bases endure receiving in the Middle East?
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  Speaker 1: How many casualties can we have and sustain over this time?
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  Speaker 1: How many cashews can the Israelis have Because they're going
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  Speaker 1: to be a primary target as well. And I would
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  Speaker 1: wager that if it's an existential battle, that Iran will
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  Speaker 1: not just strict solely military targets, but will go after
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  Speaker 1: high value and high casualty producing targets as well, because
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  Speaker 1: they're not going to go down empty handed. They're not
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  Speaker 1: going to allow themselves to be destroyed and not inflict
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  Speaker 1: profound damage on the other side. So it is theoretically possible,
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  Speaker 1: and if you just did a war of attrition, we
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  Speaker 1: would probably win as long as we don't ever get
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  Speaker 1: called and defied anything in Europe, as long as we
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  Speaker 1: don't get called tofied anything in Asia or anywhere else
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  Speaker 1: on the globe.
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  Speaker 3: But why would we want to lower all of our stocks,
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  Speaker 3: have a number of our people killed for nothing that
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  Speaker 3: benefits our country. That's what I am so emphatic about here.
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  Speaker 3: There is no threat to America that is worth all
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  Speaker 3: of that expense, and we should not even start it.
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  Speaker 1: So ultimately this boils down to this benefits primarily Israel.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, it does.
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  Speaker 3: I mean that's why benjaminette Yaw, who's on his way
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  Speaker 3: to Washington right now, there's going to be a meeting
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  Speaker 3: tomorrow the last time he was here on December twenty eighth,
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  Speaker 3: A whole bunch of actions started happening right after that,
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  Speaker 3: and you had the big protest started. Bessett said, we
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  Speaker 3: initiated by destroying their reality and trying to sabotage their economy.
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  Speaker 3: Would certainly work to get the protests up, but then
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  Speaker 3: it didn't have enough staying power, etc.
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  Speaker 4: That's what happened last time.
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  Speaker 3: And we can only imagine that he's coming to try
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  Speaker 3: and talk Trump into doing it now because most people
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  Speaker 3: thought me included that this would already have happened, that
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  Speaker 3: the attack would happen, because everything's in place now, it
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  Speaker 3: has been for a while. The question is what's he
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  Speaker 3: going to do. Because here's the thing. You either have
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  Speaker 3: to you know, I won't use the phrase, but you
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  Speaker 3: have to do something now or get off because you
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  Speaker 3: can't leave all this combat power poison waiting and then
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  Speaker 3: never use it. You're gonna have to either use it
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  Speaker 3: or redeploy it pretty soon.
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump said, they've got to be floating around somewhere,
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  Speaker 1: so why not just let them float around there?
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  Speaker 4: The boats and the ships. I'm just saying, okay.
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  Speaker 1: Speaking about electrician let's just pivot over briefly to talk
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  Speaker 1: about the latest in Russia and Ukraine, you know, going
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  Speaker 1: further to your point, I mean, if you look at
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  Speaker 1: you know, Ukraine's army, Russia's army one is bigger than
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  Speaker 1: the other. You would have thought Russia could have gone
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  Speaker 1: through and just roll right over Ukraine. At the outset
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  Speaker 1: here we are, what is it, year three, It's taken
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  Speaker 1: a lot longer, year four four. It's taken a lot
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  Speaker 1: longer for Russia to roll over the much smaller and
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  Speaker 1: inferior army in Ukraine. That's a learning exercise for a
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  Speaker 1: giant power like ours too. In this in this as
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  Speaker 1: we discussed these conflicts.
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  Speaker 3: Well, except that it's not quite as simple as that,
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  Speaker 3: because it's not just the big Russia against the little
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine except in manpower and that one category it is
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  Speaker 3: that and that that is that is having its it's uh,
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  Speaker 3: it's an expected reaction. But it is the entire fifty
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  Speaker 3: nation UH coalition of the willing, mostly NATO, using Ukraine
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  Speaker 3: as the proxy. So it is two major powers going
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  Speaker 3: against each other through the vehicle of the Ukraine side.
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  Speaker 3: That's important to understand because too many people want to
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  Speaker 3: mock the Russians that they can't defeat this little Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: But it's never been just Russia against the little Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: It's been Russia against the juggernaut of all of these
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  Speaker 3: fifty nations, which we brag about all the time about
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  Speaker 3: how everybody's supplying Ukraine with everything they need to fight.
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine has to provide. The manpower problem is they don't
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  Speaker 3: have enough manpower. So Russia has calculated that Okay, we're
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  Speaker 3: going to go the slow, methodical path and limit our
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  Speaker 3: friendly casualties because they can't sustain what the firepower we're
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  Speaker 3: bringing in, and it's working out that way. Their time
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  Speaker 3: is different than ours, Brian. They're willing to go slow,
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  Speaker 3: even if it took another year. I don't think it will,
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  Speaker 3: but they say that you can't sustain the manpower, and
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  Speaker 3: no matter what you get from the West, we can
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  Speaker 3: over we can saturate it with firepower and you'll eventually
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  Speaker 3: be ground to nothing.
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  Speaker 4: But we are still.
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  Speaker 3: Growing and getting bigger on their offensive side, and it's
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  Speaker 3: just gonna play out that way. So there's no path
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  Speaker 3: that I mean zero to stop Russia right now. The
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  Speaker 3: only question is how fast are they going to go
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  Speaker 3: or you know, how slow or methodical, but they're gonna end.
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  Speaker 1: Up with the victory a victory, and how that victory
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  Speaker 1: looks is I guess the question to be determined because
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  Speaker 1: you know certain land will be conceded, will be given
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  Speaker 1: over by Ukraine, I presume the areas.
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  Speaker 3: Or it'll be just taken by the Russians one or
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  Speaker 3: the other. And then that's what they're saying, you're either
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  Speaker 3: going to work it by negotiations or we're going to
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  Speaker 3: take you by force, and they're.
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  Speaker 1: Open and plain about that, and they'll be an occupying force.
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  Speaker 1: Then if they take over Ukraine, right, I mean, doesn't I.
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  Speaker 3: Say, what they're going to want to do is they're
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  Speaker 3: going to take areage where there is a significant portion
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  Speaker 3: of Russian speakers, right, And then I think they'll stop
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  Speaker 3: because I don't think that that they want any part
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  Speaker 3: of going into the west of the des River, because
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: that is just like a beehive and trying to Yeah,
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: so I don't think they would even want to, but
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: they will go that far because it is primarily a
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  Speaker 3: Russian speakers in there, and then they're still going to
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: deal with it because there's no doubt in my mind
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  Speaker 3: that if Russia even Conkers to the Danepa River. That
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  Speaker 3: there is already plans in place for there to be
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  Speaker 3: a you know, a partisan kind of long term chancer
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  Speaker 3: in the in the rear of the Russians.
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  Speaker 4: Oh yeah, they're aware of it.
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  Speaker 3: But that's yeah, so this won't end even then, it'll
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  Speaker 3: just change dynamics, which is bad, bad, bad for the
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  Speaker 3: people of Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, the guerrilla warfare fighting from the hills against the
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  Speaker 1: evil Russians, hit and attack and run, and that's you
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: bought that long term to the extent, you know, they
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: want to take over more. Daniel Davis Deep Die find
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: them on podcasts The Retire Lieutenant Colonel. It's always great
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: having you on the show. I appreciate your thoughtful analysis
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: and we'll do it again next Tuesday, my friend, have.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: A great week. Thanks Ryan, see you next week.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Take care. Eight forty four fifty five krc DE Talk station.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: This is fifty five krc an iHeartRadio station.