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Oct 09 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr261009 The October 9, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report features host Todd Gleason analyzing daily commodity markets and the latest USDA crop production estimates. Guest Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting reviews the unexpected upward revisions to domestic and global corn yields, noting that the data runs counter to recent market trends and creates new headwinds for prices. Additionally, Joshua Nagelberg of CropProphet outlines the agricultural weather forecast, highlighting an incoming wet pattern for the western Corn Belt and evaluating how the current El Nino weather event is impacting early planting conditions for South American crops. 01:32 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting 12:27 Ag Weather with Joshua Nagelberg, CropProphet --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the ninth day of October 2026, USDA crop production and world agricultural supply and demand estimates report day. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets and this morning’s reports with Mike Zuzolo at globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. If you can stay with us for the whole of the hour, we’ll continue that conversation with our Commodity Week panelists including Logan Kimmel, Alan Dearden, and Jim McCormick right here on the first half hour. We’ll continue on with the Closing Market Report. Eric Snodgrass is away from the office today. However, we do have a very special guest. We’ll be joined by Joshua Nagelberg. A very good conversation with him. He is at CropProphet. Stay with us if you can for the whole of the hour. Otherwise, everything’s up online at willag.org. announce: December corn for the day settled at 479 and three quarters, 20 and a half lower. The March at 494 and a quarter, down 21. And May futures at 502, 20 and a quarter lower. November soybeans up four and a half cents. They settled at 12.92. January at 13.08 and three quarters, up four and a half cents. The March four and three quarters higher at 13.18 and three quarters. Bean meal up eight bucks for the day. The bean oil a dime higher. And wheat futures were down about 12 cents. 01:32 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo at globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Mike, thanks for being with us. Mike Zuzolo: Thanks for having me, Todd. Todd Gleason: Wow, what an extraordinary day it has been out of Washington, D.C. and Chicago. Both. Washington because it’s home of USDA and NASS, the National Agricultural Statistics Service. They dropped out a set of numbers today that changed the world for corn producers in particular. Can you start with that set of numbers and some of the changes you thought that were most interesting? Mike Zuzolo: Well, clearly the biggest change was the reversal in trend. We were wanting to see a reversal in trend on soybean yields to match up with lower corn yields, but we saw the exact opposite. Soybean yields went from 52.8 to 53.1 this month, and corn made a significant jump from 178.5 to 181.2. So the trends are aligned, but in the wrong direction for the producer and for the grain analyst for the most part. The thing that I saw on the USDA corn yield maps and the changes in percent versus the September report was that the straight line from North Dakota all the way down to Texas saw every one of those states—North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas, Oklahoma being the only one with no change—all of them saw large increases. Anywhere from one and a half percent higher versus September in North Dakota to seven percent higher in Texas. And the big one that is in the darker blue along with Texas is the Nebraska yield, up 6.2% now at 188 in terms of bushels per acre. And if we look at that compared to last year, you’re still down about 3.1%. I have talked to several Nebraska producers both before the report and after the report and clearly the ones calling in after are probably going to be the ones saying it’s not that high, but even the ones before the report were saying that they still are running more disappointing corn yields than they are versus last year. So yes, it could be only 3% lower, but I’m inclined to think that for USDA to take the whole western Corn Belt strip north to south up, it was probably more of satellite imagery and less about crop condition, crop weather as far as the rains and storm damages, and probably more about the computer side of the equation. If that’s the case, I could look forward to I think maybe a reversal of this yield in the November report and they come around and balance it more evenly with lower yields from physical bushels and some of the other more standard traditional things. Todd Gleason: So your argument is that from space that the crop just looked better after the rainfall and it makes sense it got greener or stayed greener longer and USDA weighted that more heavily. Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, that’s my inference right now. And I think that’s where I’m gonna, you know, I told clients after the report pretty plainly, we’re in an environment now we’re in October, we’ve seen this massive shift and we still have these macro headwinds that you and I have talked about between the dollar and the bond yields. We also don’t know what President Trump is going to do on the diesel exports or what he’s going to do with the diesel because he has made an announcement shortly before, 15 minutes before the WASDE report came out, that he has an announcement in his pocket ready to let us know about diesel specifically. But we’re in this environment between that and South America planting that unless El Nino rears its ugly head in Brazil and Argentina, you know, we’re running out of runway to make a splash in the market with future USDA changes. In other words, if they wait until January to make this change and we’ve got a big crop being grown in South America, the dollar keeps going higher and resumes its trend to the upside, for instance, in my opinion, because President Trump’s administration is hamstrung because the Republicans lose both sides of Congress, and we then also hear that the U.S. and China trade relationship isn’t as good as we had hoped. These are things that I think are real, I think they’re tangible, and they concern me, and so time is of the essence to get the supply back down again if you ask me. Todd Gleason: Just one question about that. Why would losing both sides of Congress hamstring the administration? Wouldn’t it be just the Federal Reserve making its decisions? Mike Zuzolo: I think that’s exactly what my fear is, and I think this is where President Trump’s policy between the monetary policy and the tariffs has been a weaker dollar policy and we’re seeing that in the charts. And as we have seen him lose the tariff battle in the courts and we’re starting to see some different comments coming out of Fed governors and the diesel prices are encouraging inflation and that’s creating this headwind with the Fed, this has given the dollar upside. And so if you look at where the dollar made its high, it was where President Trump essentially got inaugurated and what I have to kind of bake into a cake here is if the Republicans don’t have all of the levers in Washington, that could include the Federal Reserve policy and the sentiment in Washington could easily I think spill back over into the currency markets. And this goes hand in glove with the idea that China has helped keep their currency weaker, or excuse me, stronger than normal because of President Trump. Do they see it differently if the midterms go the wrong way for President Trump? So it’s just something we have to keep in mind I think. Todd Gleason: The president when he teased this diesel announcement, and I don’t think it’s been five days, but anyway, something had to be done I think by the end of this week via the executive order or within five days. He also talked about something coming from the Office of Management and Budget and Director Russell Vought. Is there anything that you think you can put into place that would impact diesel prices? Mike Zuzolo: I don’t. I think that the only thing that he could do, and I’m no expert on this, honestly, the only thing I see him doing between now and the election to move the needle of the electorate because we have mail-in ballots already done in many states at this point and it’s increasing by the day, is to get the prices down essentially within the next week. And he said in quotes, “We have I think some big news on that diesel situation, we’re going to be knocking the hell out of it,” unquote. And so what does that say to me? It says it’s got to be something large and that says it means the prices at the pump are going to go down substantially, not something that’s going to help you tax-wise or something like that. So it goes back to, the diesel market reacted to that down about 3% going into Friday’s close, soybean oil stayed steady. I’ll watch that on Sunday. And then the meal market went up 2% on the close on Friday helping bring the beans back up. So it made sense that after the report you would buy beans and sell corn, but did it make sense for the beans to go higher on the close? And only because of the meal, and that’s in light of a bigger Argentine crop and bigger exports coming out of Argentina and the funds being record net long. So I have as many if not more questions after this report and the market reaction than I did before. And maybe it’s just as simple as there’s some trapped shorts in the meal market because October futures goes off the board on the 14th, but again it’s going to make it a lot more difficult I think on the analysis side after this report because we didn’t lose supply to offset that potential weakening demand. Todd Gleason: We’ll detail a great deal about the domestic numbers during our Commodity Week program. I know you look at the global numbers. Can you outline what changes, if any, were made in the corn, soybean, or wheat numbers that you think are important there? Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, and this dovetails really nicely in our conversation. The global corn number went up to 280.44 million metric tons. That compares to 272.1. Again, a massive increase, and it actually went above the highest trade guess of just under 280 million. So all of a sudden we’re sitting here with a domestic crop not far from 2 billion bushels and sitting here also with a global crop not far from the three-year average when all we’ve talked about all year long is how tight we’re getting and how much tighter we’re getting. USDA completely changed that today. So now for me, I’m back to I got to get a low in the wheat market, I don’t trust a low in the soybeans. I welcome it if it comes, but I don’t trust it. I just need a low in the wheat market to give corn support at this stage. Todd Gleason: Is there any way that can happen? Our USDA on their wheat numbers dropped cash price a dime and I think they raised… did they not? The ending stocks for wheat? Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, they went from 717 to 740, and this is an interesting thing you bring up, Todd, to answer your question briefly, yes. Seasonally, we should start to be in a low period for wheat. I’m not sure we’re gonna get a lot more wheat acres in the ground because it’s super hot again, and I’m not so sure we have the moisture levels that producers want now that we’re in mid-October to try and risk it. Maybe they will. But it’s interesting because this is the problem and the anomaly with USDA’s numbers today. On an ending stocks basis, wheat went up a little over 3%, beans went up a little under 2%, corn went up 18%. And that’s just, that’s way out of whack in terms of a statistician’s mindset if you ask me. Todd Gleason: Anything else before I let you go for the day? Mike Zuzolo: I’d say livestock numbers got what we needed. We saw reduced production in both beef and pork. We did see exports go down in pork, imports went up in beef, so a little bit mixed, but I think it still continues to show us a very tight supply that’s getting tighter and maybe that’s going to give us some more support in the meat sector once we come back from the weekend. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I really appreciate it. Mike Zuzolo: You too, Todd. Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: Mm-hmm. That’s Mike Zuzolo. He’s at globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. 12:27 Ag Weather with Joshua Nagelberg, CropProphet Todd Gleason: Now let’s take a look at the weather forecast on this Friday afternoon for the growing regions across the planet. Eric Snodgrass is not available today. However, we will talk with Joshua Nagelberg. He is with a company called CropProphet. I met him over the summer in St. Louis at the Noble Ag Conference and have been looking for a place to talk with him. He’s not only a meteorologist, but the company itself does some looking at crop size and making some predictions. I thank you Joshua for joining us today. First, can you introduce yourself more than I have already and then also tell me about CropProphet? Joshua Nagelberg: Sure, Todd. Thanks for first of all reaching back out to me. Yes, so I am a meteorologist and I handle sales of the CropProphet weather intelligence tool. We work with folks in the agricultural commodities world across all over the U.S., South America, Europe, and we deliver weather intelligence that helps maximize a grain trading edge. Basically, we provide weather information, yield forecasts, and a system that’s in place that takes historical weather data and quantifies yield and production risk. Todd Gleason: Given that, let’s start with that 188 that came out of Nebraska from the United States Department of Agriculture. I don’t know whether you do state-by-state breakdowns or not. If you do, how close were you to that or where do you at CropProphet think the national yield for corn is and of course the state yields as well? Joshua Nagelberg: Yes, so our subscribers pay for the numbers. I can’t share the exact number, but I can tell you we’re estimating that number could still continue to climb. And a lot of that is likely based on some of the heavier precipitation that fell in September, early October, and we are above that number, although it has been a little bit drier in recent seven or eight days. Todd Gleason: And you’re talking the national number or the Nebraska number at that point climbing? Joshua Nagelberg: Actually both. But the Nebraska number sticks out. That’s one of our states that we’ve highlighted with the biggest jump in the last month in our yield forecast. Todd Gleason: So it was not only USDA that saw that jump, it was also you then? Joshua Nagelberg: Correct. We’ve seen some of our biggest moves come from the western Corn Belt, which as you remember had such a dry peak of the growing season but since it turned substantially wetter as the weather has shifted as El Nino is beginning to shift the weather patterns and bring more rain into the central US. Todd Gleason: Speaking of rainfall, let’s talk about the weather forecast for the Corn Belt. What do you see from the west to the east or however you want to begin to lay it out? Joshua Nagelberg: Yeah, so the dry weather pattern we’re in, Todd, is getting ready to shift again. We stay dry for the most part this weekend, but believe it or not, hurricane season is going to influence the weather here in the plains first. There’ll be a system that comes into Mexico and the Southwest from the Pacific, could even be a tropical storm technically that hits San Diego on Sunday morning, and that moisture moves into the west over the weekend and eventually shifts eastward and brings quite a bit of rain it looks like to the western Corn Belt starting around Tuesday, Wednesday and then shifting east across the central and eastern Corn Belt. We do see some states that have potential to pick up two to three times their normal rain over about a five to ten day stretch. And the state that is highlighted in that would actually be Nebraska. Kansas could be as well, fairly wet two to three times their normal rainfall. Todd Gleason: How does Iowa do through that process? They’ve been so wet they’ve needed to be able to dry out just to get started and I would think that would be about the time they might really begin rolling. Joshua Nagelberg: Iowa is not participating in as much of the dry spell in the next five days as the rest of the central Corn Belt. We’re predicting 85% of normal rain in the next five days, surrounding states are closer to half to even a quarter of normal. But their number starts climbing as well, just like everybody around them to about twice normal rainfall. So they get a somewhat of a break, but unfortunately they’re back on the high side of rain again, or fortunately depending on who you talk to, but I’d imagine it’s probably unfortunate right now. Todd Gleason: And then looking into the end of October, beginning of November, as producers wrap up, they’ll need some cooler temperatures to arrive, particularly north of Highway 16 in Illinois, but the upper two-thirds of the state and Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, some of those places to put on their fall anhydrous and fertilizer applications. Do we see cooler weather or are we going to have a persistently warm fall still? Joshua Nagelberg: So the trend for the last 10 days of October favors slightly below normal temperatures east of the Missouri River. So Iowa on eastward. Not by a lot. There could certainly be some cold snaps in there. The farther west you get, the warmer it looks. In fact, it will remain persistently warm with some cool shots in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas. But when you get a little bit closer to Illinois, Wisconsin, the Mississippi River, the trend is certainly cooler for those final 10 days of October. Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to South America. Your company’s been keeping a close eye there as well. What can you tell me about the weather and its impact for the beginning of the growing season, starting in the center-west or Mato Grosso and the states there in Brazil and work your way southward? Joshua Nagelberg: Yeah, so so far in October, we have seen above normal rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and the western portions of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina. So center-west and the southern portion of that area has been wet. Farther north, Mato Grosso though is not participating in that above normal rain so far in October, it’s been fairly dry and that is fairly common for building El Nino. This year is not a common year, El Nino is stronger, but if you look at the relative to where the rest of the water temperatures are it actually does kind of fit that pattern. As we take a look Todd moving forward, the prediction is that it gets wetter over the next few days and especially the middle and second half of the month for southern Brazil. West center, there’s kind of a dividing line. If you’re north of 20 degrees south, you’re dry, if you’re south of it, you’re wet and potentially very wet. So Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, areas farther south will be quite wet. Todd Gleason: And in Argentina? Joshua Nagelberg: Argentina is back and forth. They are going to be cooler than normal for the most part. There will be some dry periods in the next 10 days before it tries to get a little bit wetter again in the longer term. There are potential for some more substantial rainfall coming into the north and west. However, a good chunk of the corn belt there is expected to stay drier than average. There’ll be periods of rain, but it’s not expected to be enough to overwhelm a lot of the planting. Todd Gleason: And before I let you go, and I know this is a pay-for-view, but it’s so early in the season, I’m wondering whether you can give me an idea whether there at this point appears to be any deviation from normal in any of those South American regions? Joshua Nagelberg: Yeah, so I’ll start with Brazil soybean weather. We found that you can’t just paint the entire country with El Nino and say there’s a signal. There’s mixed signals there. But the strongest impact that we’ve seen from El Nino is on overnight low temperatures in January and February. For soybean production weighted areas, we found national precipitation is relatively weak. High temperatures have a little bit larger relationship, but they’re not that significant, low temperatures are where we found the biggest influence. And the higher the overnight temperatures, the higher the yields tend to be. It does matter. Mato Grosso the relationship is about as low as you can get for all the states. Southern Brazil, the relationship is a lot higher with precipitation. So areas that we’re expecting to stay pretty wet, there certainly will be a correlation to higher yields for soybeans. But areas that are farther north like Mato Grosso are not going to have a statistically sound relationship to El Nino. So it’s hard to really pick out what the yield would be there. When we’re taking a look at corn, kind of the same deal. There’s no significant relationship between weather and the national corn yield in Brazil. Argentina on the other hand, there is more of a relationship. We found soybeans generally have positive yields when we get more rainfall, particularly January to April. The corn and soybean yield deviation from trend also shows significant relationships with that Nino index, the 3.4 index that we’re looking at right now. And essentially what we’re looking at is that when there’s La Nina, you get below trend, but during El Nino you get above trend soybean yields across Argentina. And a lot of that owes to the rainfall patterns that we have during El Nino. Todd Gleason: Joshua, thank you so much. I really appreciate you taking time with me short notice today and really good, really good stuff. I appreciate it. I hope we can talk again in the future. Joshua Nagelberg: Absolutely, Todd. Glad I could help out on short notice and we’re always happy to help out in the weather space. And if anyone has interest in learning more about CropProphet, I’m happy to talk more with you. Todd Gleason: Oh, I should ask. What is the web address for CropProphet? Joshua Nagelberg: Yeah, please reach out to us at cropprophet.com. We do have a free trial that’s available and you can fill out the form and I’ll reach back out to you from there. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Joshua. That’s Joshua Nagelberg. He is a meteorologist, a commodities and weather solution specialist actually, and located in Raleigh, North Carolina. CropProphet is in State College. That’s in Pennsylvania. You’ve been listening to the Closing Market Report on this Friday afternoon. Stay with us if you can. Commodity Week is coming up next on our home station and most of these stations will carry it over the weekend. It’s also up online right now at willag.org.