Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / SK Hynix Shares Plunge Most on Record in Deepening Korea Selloff
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- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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- 0:24Speaker 2: Switch gears to technology? Why not? Mandy sing joints us here,
- 0:28Speaker 2: globalhead of tech Research for Bloomberg Intelligence. Lots of ways
- 0:31Speaker 2: to go here, man deep, Start with sk Heinex. What
- 0:34Speaker 2: did you make of their US listing on Friday? And
- 0:37Speaker 2: maybe how that in the stocks trading off today? You know,
- 0:40Speaker 2: five percent and then traded off pretty I think was
- 0:44Speaker 2: it fifteen percent in yeah Korea?
- 0:46Speaker 3: Yeah, and it costs me down about nine percent on
- 0:48Speaker 3: the day.
- 0:48Speaker 2: What do you make of all that?
- 0:50Speaker 4: I mean, I think the data day volatility will be there,
- 0:54Speaker 4: and uh, we're kind of going through a phase where
- 0:58Speaker 4: everyone is trying to figure out the next leg of
- 1:01Speaker 4: this AI infrastructure build out and how the companies would
- 1:05Speaker 4: be reporting, especially the hyperscalers. I mean, at the end
- 1:08Speaker 4: of the day, everything comes down to the CAPEX numbers
- 1:13Speaker 4: for twenty twenty seven and twenty twenty eight, and we'll
- 1:16Speaker 4: learn about that when they report earnings, the hyperscalers and
- 1:21Speaker 4: you know there is some profit taking right now. But overall,
- 1:26Speaker 4: I thought the IPO was well received in terms of
- 1:30Speaker 4: you know, the first day bump that we saw in
- 1:34Speaker 4: terms of a close and everyone, the long term investors
- 1:38Speaker 4: do think this is a multi year cycle for memory names,
- 1:42Speaker 4: and even though they are cyclical and there is a
- 1:46Speaker 4: fear around peak earnings, I think on the whole, everyone
- 1:50Speaker 4: buys into this multi year buildout for AI.
- 1:54Speaker 3: It feels increasingly like everyone's taking their cue from the
- 1:57Speaker 3: COSP from what happens in Korea and that the tail
- 2:01Speaker 3: is wiking the dog here is that the case?
- 2:03Speaker 5: Man?
- 2:04Speaker 3: Deep? I mean, when you come in the morning, do
- 2:05Speaker 3: you look at what's happening in Korea and say, okay,
- 2:07Speaker 3: now I have a better picture of what's going to
- 2:09Speaker 3: happen globally because that sets the tone every day.
- 2:12Speaker 4: No, I mean, for me, it's just another data point
- 2:15Speaker 4: where yeah, I look at the futures, I look at
- 2:18Speaker 4: how the markets have reacted, But at the end of
- 2:21Speaker 4: the day, there are some data points that weigh a
- 2:24Speaker 4: lot more from me, and the hyper scale Capex guide
- 2:29Speaker 4: is one of them. And if I know that all
- 2:32Speaker 4: these companies are raising their capex for next year, and
- 2:36Speaker 4: we're into a thirty year of a seventy percent increase
- 2:40Speaker 4: in capex, and if next year is going to be
- 2:42Speaker 4: another fifty percent, then there is not much to worry
- 2:45Speaker 4: about at least for the next twelve to eighteen months.
- 2:48Speaker 3: Okay, And it looks like some of those hyperscalers really
- 2:50Speaker 3: don't report earnings until the end of this month. Next
- 2:53Speaker 3: tomorrow we're going to get the big banks reporting. We're
- 2:55Speaker 3: also going to hear from TSMC and ASML, two big
- 2:59Speaker 3: big names globally. How do you see that kind of
- 3:03Speaker 3: filling the vacuum between now and when the hyperscalers do
- 3:06Speaker 3: report and give us a better picture of their capex
- 3:09Speaker 3: plans for twenty twenty seven and beyond.
- 3:11Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean TSMC reported their monthly number today and
- 3:16Speaker 4: you know, we are easily tracking over a forty percent
- 3:19Speaker 4: increase or a year over year, and the seasonality was
- 3:23Speaker 4: better than expected. So when you look at TSMC's results,
- 3:27Speaker 4: which hasn't really used their pricing power like the Memory
- 3:30Speaker 4: guys have, so in the case of Memory top line,
- 3:33Speaker 4: you see a lot of pricing growth. TSMC, on the
- 3:36Speaker 4: other hand, has been a lot more balanced in terms
- 3:39Speaker 4: of volume versus pricing. And it's just a question like
- 3:44Speaker 4: the durability of TSMC's growth ASML's growth. And all of
- 3:48Speaker 4: these Memory guys, whether it's ske Heinex or Micron, have
- 3:52Speaker 4: talked about raising their own capex, so that means ASML
- 3:56Speaker 4: is a beneficiary of Memory capex. And right now everyone
- 4:03Speaker 4: buys into this thesis that you have to keep investing
- 4:06Speaker 4: to keep raising their capex just to increase the supply
- 4:10Speaker 4: by fifteen twenty percent, and even that would not be sufficient.
- 4:14Speaker 4: That's what the skehih next cheerman said is we will
- 4:17Speaker 4: double our supply through twenty thirty at a kegre of
- 4:19Speaker 4: fifteen percent, but we will still be under supplied. So
- 4:24Speaker 4: the demand growth will outpace fifteen to twenty percent supply
- 4:28Speaker 4: growth that these companies are investing in.
- 4:31Speaker 2: Okay, again, the numbers is blown me away, dude, But
- 4:34Speaker 2: I'm going to take what you're seeing face value. If
- 4:37Speaker 2: I'm a Meta or Google or Amazon, what do I
- 4:41Speaker 2: want to put up a big capex forecast or not?
- 4:45Speaker 2: Where are we in that play?
- 4:46Speaker 5: There?
- 4:47Speaker 2: Does a mark I want to see these guys keep
- 4:49Speaker 2: spending or we kind of pass that.
- 4:52Speaker 4: I think the market wants to see them spending at
- 4:54Speaker 4: the same time show some revenue lift to their top lines.
- 5:00Speaker 4: So in the case of Meta and Microsoft and Google,
- 5:03Speaker 4: they want to see that cloud business get a bump,
- 5:07Speaker 4: the core ads business get a bump from AI, and
- 5:11Speaker 4: the AI contribution has to be very clear. So like
- 5:15Speaker 4: Google Cloud growth, for example, has surpassed fifty percent. Now
- 5:19Speaker 4: expectations why they were growing traditionally Cloud rose growing twenty
- 5:23Speaker 4: to twenty five percent. That additional twenty five percent plus
- 5:28Speaker 4: growth is coming from AI. So similarly, you want to
- 5:32Speaker 4: see that reflected in all the hyperscalers that are reporting
- 5:36Speaker 4: that this is the AI portion, and hence we are
- 5:39Speaker 4: raising our capex, and I think the market will cheer
- 5:41Speaker 4: for that.
- 5:42Speaker 6: Stay with us.
- 5:43Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 5:49Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 5:53Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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- 5:59Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 6:03Speaker 2: Right now, we want to talk about Apple. They're in
- 6:05Speaker 2: the courts fighting Open AI regarding intellectual property. It's I
- 6:11Speaker 2: don't know it's legal stuff, folks. But let's get to
- 6:14Speaker 2: an expert because I'm not really sure what's going on here.
- 6:16Speaker 2: Talent Basin joins us here tech litigation analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 6:20Speaker 2: He's based in London. Talent summarize what's going on here
- 6:24Speaker 2: with open ai and our good friends at Apple.
- 6:28Speaker 6: Yeah, sure, parl Yeah. So this is a intellectual property case,
- 6:31Speaker 6: and specifically it's on trade secrets. On trade secrets are
- 6:35Speaker 6: sort of the most cloaking dagger form of intellectual property disputes,
- 6:39Speaker 6: and sort of reading the complaint over the weekend, that's
- 6:42Speaker 6: you know, there's no exception here. So Apple is accusing
- 6:44Speaker 6: open Ai of a coordinated orchestrated attempt to gain some
- 6:49Speaker 6: of it's proprietary know how relating to making devices for
- 6:54Speaker 6: the next iteration of AI rollouts. So they started about
- 6:58Speaker 6: a year and a half ago and open ai spent
- 7:02Speaker 6: about six point five billion dollars to acquire a companied
- 7:06Speaker 6: coyled io. This had been founded by some former Apple executives.
- 7:12Speaker 6: One of those executives is now the head of software
- 7:15Speaker 6: development at open ai. And what this lawsuit lays out
- 7:18Speaker 6: is at various stages where even engineers at Apple were recruited,
- 7:26Speaker 6: were asked to bring Apple devices to open AI interviews
- 7:30Speaker 6: and to share proprietary information. So what Apple was doing
- 7:34Speaker 6: is they have sued, they want an injunction. They want
- 7:36Speaker 6: to put a stop to what they see as an
- 7:37Speaker 6: attempt to shortcut Open Eyes, attempt to shorten its way
- 7:41Speaker 6: into the devices.
- 7:43Speaker 3: Okay, so lawsuits typically take a long time to get resolved,
- 7:47Speaker 3: and of course technology and technological change happens very very quickly.
- 7:52Speaker 3: What are you thinking about in terms of timeline for
- 7:54Speaker 3: any kind of landmark not even decisions, but landmark events
- 7:59Speaker 3: in this loss to affect the technology that both sides
- 8:02Speaker 3: are working on.
- 8:04Speaker 6: Yeah, and that's an excellent point. These cases long often
- 8:07Speaker 6: do have long tails to them. However, I think what
- 8:10Speaker 6: we're expecting over the next two to three weeks is
- 8:13Speaker 6: Apple to file up, follow up with a request for
- 8:16Speaker 6: a preliminary injunction. Really, what it's going to ask the
- 8:20Speaker 6: court to do is put some guardware else around what
- 8:22Speaker 6: it says are as trade secrets, preservations of evidence. So
- 8:26Speaker 6: it's going to be probably looking for something in three Q,
- 8:29Speaker 6: if not in four Q, for an early ruling on
- 8:32Speaker 6: that preliminary injunctioning request, and we do think Apple has
- 8:35Speaker 6: a pretty strong argument here. Courts are you know, it's
- 8:39Speaker 6: so difficult to pull those trade secrets out of a
- 8:42Speaker 6: product if it goes to market. So I think, now
- 8:44Speaker 6: no products have shipped yet, I think Apple is going
- 8:47Speaker 6: to have a fairly strong chance to get that temporary
- 8:50Speaker 6: preliminary injunction probably in the next few months. After that,
- 8:54Speaker 6: we're going to have to see you know that there's
- 8:55Speaker 6: potentially going to be settlement talks as I go forward,
- 8:59Speaker 6: But I think Apple's eyes right now are on getting
- 9:02Speaker 6: some near term relief in this.
- 9:05Speaker 3: How do you think about the employees that have left
- 9:08Speaker 3: Apple and gone over to open Ai. What kind of
- 9:11Speaker 3: risks did they face?
- 9:12Speaker 6: Now, Yeah, a few of them have been named in
- 9:16Speaker 6: this lawsuit, and for those name defendants, the risks are
- 9:20Speaker 6: very high. So we've seen these litigations play out. Some
- 9:24Speaker 6: other high sticks instances are Weaimo, which is Google self
- 9:28Speaker 6: driving car division. About five years ago it sued Uber
- 9:32Speaker 6: over sort of self driving car technology. The executive there
- 9:36Speaker 6: ended up going to jail. This was somebody who left
- 9:39Speaker 6: Weimo went to Uber. So the stakes can be pretty high.
- 9:42Speaker 6: Right now, there is no criminal component to this case. However,
- 9:45Speaker 6: for trade secrets disputes, that can sort of escalate quickly,
- 9:49Speaker 6: So I think everybody is going to be a little
- 9:51Speaker 6: bit on edge. And it's also interesting because there's such
- 9:53Speaker 6: a talent warrant right now, not just between these companies,
- 9:56Speaker 6: for all companies trying to gain as much AI talent
- 10:00Speaker 6: as possible. So I think we're going to have to
- 10:01Speaker 6: see if this has sort of a dampening impact on
- 10:04Speaker 6: how much poaching we're seeing in the industry.
- 10:07Speaker 2: On Wall Street, there's something called garden leave. When you
- 10:10Speaker 2: leave one firm for another. There you can't go start
- 10:13Speaker 2: work at that new firm for at least six months,
- 10:16Speaker 2: sometimes longer, to try to preserve some of the corporate
- 10:21Speaker 2: in intellectual property from the firm you're leaving. Is there
- 10:23Speaker 2: anything like that in technology?
- 10:26Speaker 6: Technology is generally pushed back on that, just because sort of,
- 10:29Speaker 6: again as pointing out, a lot of the development and
- 10:32Speaker 6: this is so fast paced that having an executive having
- 10:36Speaker 6: a star engineer sort of sit on our sidelines for
- 10:38Speaker 6: six months can be really a disadvantage. So sort of
- 10:41Speaker 6: we've seen across the entire tech space is resistance to
- 10:45Speaker 6: that sort of garden leave type scenario. We'll see get
- 10:48Speaker 6: going forward if firms are more open to implementing that,
- 10:52Speaker 6: But so far we've seen a lot of reluctance.
- 10:56Speaker 3: What does this mean for open aiy's ability to recruit,
- 10:59Speaker 3: you know, tech folks from other firms in Silicon Valley.
- 11:03Speaker 6: Yeah, I do think it's a bit of a reputational
- 11:06Speaker 6: risk right now. I think until there's more clarity on
- 11:09Speaker 6: what's going to happen with this lawsuit. And again, this
- 11:12Speaker 6: is not the first time open ai has been sued,
- 11:15Speaker 6: so I think there's been a lot of litigation that's
- 11:17Speaker 6: attached to it. So I think it probably does over
- 11:19Speaker 6: the near term, until there's more clarity, it probably does
- 11:22Speaker 6: put a bit of a dampening impact on its ability
- 11:25Speaker 6: to go out there and recruit some of the biggest
- 11:27Speaker 6: names that it may want.
- 11:29Speaker 4: Stay with us.
- 11:30Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 11:36Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 11:40Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
- 11:43Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
- 11:46Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 11:50Speaker 2: When you think about the charging of the EV business,
- 11:52Speaker 2: I think of it as still an industry that's in infancy,
- 11:55Speaker 2: still growing, trying to add capacity. So when I read
- 11:58Speaker 2: this kind of surprised me. There has been an increasing
- 12:02Speaker 2: number of charging network acquisitions in Europe. Again, I wasn't
- 12:05Speaker 2: expecting to see that from this industry at this stage
- 12:09Speaker 2: of its life cycle. Ryan Fisher, ev Charging team leader
- 12:12Speaker 2: for Bloomberg bn EF, joins us from London. So Ryan,
- 12:16Speaker 2: we're seeing some consolidation in Europe of the charging business.
- 12:20Speaker 2: What's going on there?
- 12:22Speaker 5: Yeah, so thanks Paul. What we've started to see is
- 12:25Speaker 5: a numerous amount of acquisitions that you've kind of got
- 12:28Speaker 5: well funded players and then you've got a load of
- 12:30Speaker 5: smaller businesses who are trying to stay aflow and they're
- 12:33Speaker 5: starting to be acquired. You've also seen some mergers. There's
- 12:36Speaker 5: a merger just happened last week between a couple of
- 12:39Speaker 5: the biggest providers MR and Evini in largely Scandinavia, where
- 12:44Speaker 5: they got some German assets. I think that are also
- 12:46Speaker 5: going to be transferred in that deal, which makes them
- 12:48Speaker 5: the biggest company. So more and more of them thinking
- 12:50Speaker 5: about scale as an opportunity. And obviously you said kind
- 12:53Speaker 5: of a surprise maybe difference between what you see in
- 12:55Speaker 5: Europe and what you sing in the US within these
- 12:57Speaker 5: markets as well.
- 12:58Speaker 2: So give us a sense of kind of where the
- 13:01Speaker 2: charging network in Europe. I don't know if you can
- 13:03Speaker 2: call it Europe writ larger or if it's country by country. Again,
- 13:07Speaker 2: I would say here in the US, I mean just
- 13:10Speaker 2: barely a blip on the screen. Talk to us about
- 13:12Speaker 2: in your world over in Europe.
- 13:14Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, So there's hundreds of thousands of these things
- 13:17Speaker 5: been installed, and often the question is like, oh, I
- 13:18Speaker 5: can't buy an EV there's no charges. Well, actually they've
- 13:21Speaker 5: been installed at such a pace that utilization has been
- 13:24Speaker 5: a bit of a problem for some of these companies,
- 13:26Speaker 5: and then the revenues because there's just so many charges
- 13:29Speaker 5: for people to choose. So then it becomes like if
- 13:31Speaker 5: you're buying a network, like what's actually considered a good network,
- 13:35Speaker 5: and some of them have more charges at the site,
- 13:37Speaker 5: some of them had these really fast power chargers, and
- 13:40Speaker 5: that makes a big difference to like whether you want
- 13:41Speaker 5: to buy it. As well as fundamentally, do they actually
- 13:44Speaker 5: own the land, and what's the right to expand and
- 13:47Speaker 5: have you got good grid connections and all this is
- 13:49Speaker 5: coming into play when somebody's fundamentally assessing like do I
- 13:52Speaker 5: want to buy this company or not? When you think
- 13:56Speaker 5: about the US, it's just so heavily dominated by Tesla's
- 13:58Speaker 5: and I think then you've also got all of the
- 14:01Speaker 5: policy environment which has affected people's confidence to roll things out.
- 14:06Speaker 5: They've got rid of the Navy grants. Obviously, they've got
- 14:10Speaker 5: rid of the grants for the actual buying of the
- 14:12Speaker 5: vehicles as well. But we are seeing pockets of companies
- 14:15Speaker 5: raising money and rolling out and having a bit more
- 14:18Speaker 5: interest in preparation for what obviously is a growing fleet.
- 14:21Speaker 5: Like sales might be consistent, but the actual fleet of
- 14:24Speaker 5: electric vehicles is therefore still growing, and it's somewhat monopolistic.
- 14:29Speaker 5: I alluded to a point about Tesla, and I'll just
- 14:30Speaker 5: remake that one, so on market share that they own
- 14:34Speaker 5: a big portion of the market. You want to go
- 14:35Speaker 5: to a fast charger, you're probably going to turn up
- 14:36Speaker 5: a Tesla in the US. But weirdly that actually is
- 14:40Speaker 5: having some consequences for the market because a lot of
- 14:42Speaker 5: the cars are changing to new eight hundred vault platforms,
- 14:45Speaker 5: and this means that you can get super fast charging
- 14:48Speaker 5: rates that can get you like five ten minutes and
- 14:52Speaker 5: you're on the move, whereas the Tesla chargers don't have
- 14:55Speaker 5: that higher voltage availability. They've sort of announced it with
- 14:58Speaker 5: these V four kind of, but actually they've only installed
- 15:01Speaker 5: like ten sites with them. So in a weird way,
- 15:05Speaker 5: if you're buying one of these fancy evs in the US,
- 15:07Speaker 5: the kind of new platforms, the BMW's and things like that,
- 15:11Speaker 5: you can't actually turn up at the Tesla site and
- 15:13Speaker 5: get the advertised charging power that they were saying. So
- 15:16Speaker 5: Tesla has been the leader, but in some ways having
- 15:19Speaker 5: such market share and not having the latest technology, it's
- 15:21Speaker 5: a bit of a problem.
- 15:23Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's there's one of many here in
- 15:25Speaker 2: the US, as you were mentioning here. But how about
- 15:27Speaker 2: in Europe? Do I've heard that or I've seen that
- 15:33Speaker 2: some of the field distribution centers, to the gas stations,
- 15:36Speaker 2: the BPS, the shells of the world, how are they
- 15:38Speaker 2: adapting to evs and charging.
- 15:42Speaker 5: Yeah, they were both pretty big as they were in
- 15:44Speaker 5: everything energy transition, and I'd say they pulled back. You've
- 15:47Speaker 5: seen that across all energy transition things from many of
- 15:49Speaker 5: these oil majors. I'd say they still have activities, though
- 15:53Speaker 5: Total is doing a lot in the energy transition at large,
- 15:57Speaker 5: but also pretty pretty active, the same as BP and
- 16:00Speaker 5: and they're more focused on four courts. But they these
- 16:03Speaker 5: companies have quite a big set of offerings for people
- 16:07Speaker 5: in the fleet sector, so they want to keep that.
- 16:09Speaker 5: So you can don't fill up your company's vehicles with
- 16:13Speaker 5: petrol and diesel, what you can fill them up with
- 16:15Speaker 5: electricity as well. So they've been involved in the sector
- 16:18Speaker 5: pretty heavily, but it can be a little bit difficult.
- 16:21Speaker 5: Quite a lot of sites might be franchised across the network,
- 16:24Speaker 5: so how do you convert them? And then fundamentally there's
- 16:26Speaker 5: just quite a lot of competition. Before you could only
- 16:28Speaker 5: fill up your vehicle at a fuel station. Now you
- 16:30Speaker 5: can fill up your vehicle if you've got an electric
- 16:32Speaker 5: one at home, so that cuts the market. Then you've
- 16:34Speaker 5: got all of these like supermarkets and stuff coming in.
- 16:37Speaker 5: So in the US I think Walmart has rolled out
- 16:39Speaker 5: pretty heavily. A good example in the UK Sainsbury's, which
- 16:43Speaker 5: is a pretty big supermarket over here, and what they've
- 16:46Speaker 5: managed to do is say, okay, something like twenty five
- 16:48Speaker 5: percent of evs that turn up are now actually charging
- 16:50Speaker 5: on the sainsbury sites, and they offer pretty cheap charging
- 16:54Speaker 5: so these oil and gas majors have got a lot
- 16:56Speaker 5: of competition, and the competition, like the supermarket, is offering
- 17:00Speaker 5: quite cheap charging as well. It's a big, big threat,
- 17:03Speaker 5: I would say for some of those, even if they
- 17:04Speaker 5: are still involved.
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