Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 49 : Oh No, Mookie And Last 30 Days Breakouts
Transcript
- 0:15Hello, and welcome everybody to episode forty nine of Cards and Categories. I
- 0:20am Mike cool Art from Rasball, joined as always by my very good friend
- 0:24Jeremy Brewer, also from Rasball. How are you doing tonight, Bud doing
- 0:28fantastic, sir. I am ready to go. I'm excited to be here.
- 0:31As always every week I look forward to this, So let's get going.
- 0:35Yeah, I am already sweating because I am up in my upstairs attic
- 0:41recording this in my office. That for those that don't know out there in
- 0:45the Midwest, we are having quite the heat wave and it's been fun.
- 0:49I'm excited to see my electricity bill after this month. It's going to be
- 0:52brutal. But we should get my air condition went on my car because I'm
- 0:55cool like that, Really, I'm not cool like that phrase that is not
- 1:00cool at all. That sounds miserable, Like that's maybe the like worse than
- 1:04like your house air conditioning breaking, because you're just like baking in the car
- 1:08while you're driving, Eh, going to the inner sego seventy to roll the
- 1:12windows down. You'll be fine. All right, Well, there we go.
- 1:15That is some Midwestern genius right here. But let's get into it.
- 1:19We are recording tonight on June nineteenth, and we are post the Mookie Bets
- 1:26kind of hand post mortem. So if you aren't aware of it, he
- 1:30broke his hand on Sunday with HBP and should be out six to eight weeks.
- 1:37Doesn't seem like he needs surgery right now, but this bone that Mooki
- 1:41Bets broke is somewhere in that like general hand wristeria, and it's really the
- 1:46worst case scenario if you have a hit by pitch coming inside. We just
- 1:51had a scare actually last night with Aaron Judge who got hit on his left
- 1:53hand and had to leave the game. But looks like he's going to be
- 1:57okay. Knock on wood as we it does seem like it has been the
- 2:00year where initial tests don't show anything and then a subsequent MRI or X ray
- 2:06shows more. But with Mookie Bets here, you are certainly hurting out there.
- 2:10If he's on your fantasy team, he was your first round pick.
- 2:14He's been absolutely everything that you could have expected him to be up until this
- 2:19injury. And what hurts even more is actually the Dodgers are going through a
- 2:23really soft portion of their schedule that they're in Colorado right now, then they
- 2:29go to Anaheim, and then they go to Chicago to face the White Sox.
- 2:32So I'm expecting the Dodgers lamp to be putting up, you know,
- 2:37twelve to fifteen runs every game here over the next little stretch. That it
- 2:40was a good opportunity in rotisserie leagues to really start racking up some runs,
- 2:46RBI and homers for Mookie Bets. But I know you've got a couple of
- 2:51shares out there, and I'm sure you're reeling anything that you can do to
- 2:55console any listeners out there on how to handle this injury for your fantasy teams.
- 3:00When you cry, eat lots of ice cream that helps. Besides that,
- 3:07No, this this is a tough one because you know, if you're
- 3:10in a redraft league, like there's really nothing you can do to replace Muki,
- 3:17Like you can't replace that production. He's he's out at six to eight
- 3:22weeks, and so you're not hamstering the whole season, especially in like a
- 3:27head to head league with playoffs, so that you need to you want to
- 3:30go really acquire something to replace them. So you're kind of stuck in that
- 3:34situation. You know, go out there, pick up guys off the waiver
- 3:38wire and try to cycle them through and hopefully get something hot, but otherwise
- 3:43you're kind of stuck. I think it really gets interesting in more of a
- 3:46Dynasty format. I've had a few folks ask me because I personally take a
- 3:49little blame for this, because I post my top one hundred hitters this weekend
- 3:53Sunday mid day with Mookie number one, and here we go. So I
- 4:00think it was like four hours later, I'm like, where's the edit button
- 4:02on my articles? Can't fix that? And somebody asked the question of what
- 4:09should I do with Muki. I'm in the Dynasty League. What SHOULDE type
- 4:12of return should I look for in Muki? And my response was, you
- 4:17know, if you think you can win this year, and like, trading
- 4:20Muki is what it takes. You are looking for the return of a healthy
- 4:27Mookie like that. If you're trade him in Dynasty League, you are looking
- 4:30for first round, top three pick overall value. You do not trade him
- 4:35for anything less than a first rounder that you believe in. That is,
- 4:41you can't you can't part them off. You can't try to get three guys
- 4:44to plug holes, grab a closer like, no, don't do that.
- 4:46That is a mistake. We are talking six to eight weeks and he will
- 4:49be back. So that's you know, that's the hard dynamic there is.
- 4:55If you want to move him, you still have to price him like he's
- 4:58healthy, especially in the Dynasty League. So I highly doubt many people will
- 5:02move Moki unless you bring salaries and all kinds of other weird keeper rules in
- 5:08a play where he may have been moved anyway, but at this point,
- 5:12got away from get healthy, get back, ridge the gap with the best
- 5:16you can. Yeah, and I think that's even a monumental task if you
- 5:20do have him in some sort of dynasty keeper situation, because whoever is trying
- 5:25to buy him on the other side is trying to get the injury discount.
- 5:28Because that is what I hate about these hand and wrist injuries is even though
- 5:32Muki is MOOKI, I don't think he's gonna be himself the rest of this
- 5:39summer. That the rest of the season, I think you're looking at maybe
- 5:42eighty percent eighty five at max of like what his normal production is. So
- 5:46that certainly is great. It's probably like a third or fourth round value,
- 5:51but it's gonna really kind of whittle away what you were expecting in the long
- 5:58run. But I think this kind of gets us into what we're going to
- 6:01cover a little bit in the second half of the show, is we sorted
- 6:05through the last thirty days lists on ras ball to get the player raiders and
- 6:12see, you know who's really had some really big pop up performances over the
- 6:15last month. Because I think some of the there are lots of players in
- 6:19the playerpool who in your shallow leagues, some of these guys might still be
- 6:24available, and in deeper leagues, I think all of them that we're going
- 6:29to be discussing, I would be buying at their kind of current value because
- 6:32these guys are all has started to show new sorts of skill sets and new
- 6:38sorts of ways that they're approaching the games, and lots of them are young,
- 6:42so they're kind of just hitting that development ramp up. So that's a
- 6:46consideration too, is like, not only if you have Mkie Betts and you're
- 6:50trying to replace them, how can you try to find somebody who has like
- 6:55started to show some extra skill and started to break out a little bit,
- 6:59but trying to kind of catch the tail end of that rocket up. Yeah,
- 7:04that's that's where I think you need to go out to the Freegan pool
- 7:08and do exactly that. Like, and I don't want to be over simplistic,
- 7:13but look at the last fourteen days, take the top free agent that
- 7:16plays the same position and plug them in. Yeah it's seven days from now.
- 7:20Do it again. Do it again, like you look to ride the
- 7:24hot hand until you find something that actually sticks. Like that's that's being very
- 7:28simplistic. Yeah, And I mean if you're in a situation where you had
- 7:30bets and you are going to try to piece together a placing in your overall
- 7:36fantasy league, that you've also got to be looking at this schedules, Like
- 7:40not only are you looking at those top four those last fourteen days, last
- 7:45seven days, and even with that, like I'm usually looking at more like
- 7:47a volume thing just to see who's actually playing the three day window that we're
- 7:51going to be discussing. I like, because you can see a little bit
- 7:55more skill start to come to surface. It's not pure luck. And like
- 7:59I I this usually happens a lot when like I'm going through last seven and
- 8:03last fourteen to write up my Waiver Wire articles is that you can like also
- 8:07see what teams have played the Rockies and the White Sox and some of these
- 8:11other terrible pitching teams because there's a little bubble and that those players as stats.
- 8:16So if you want to catch that on the front end, you've guys
- 8:20start looking at those Rocky schedules, those White Sox schedules, those Athletics schedules,
- 8:26projecting them out a little bit to see what the matchups will be and
- 8:28trying to stream ahead of your other teammate or your league mates too. So
- 8:31that's something to keep in mind going forward, because yeah, last week,
- 8:37I think we jinxed this last week pretty hard. In terms of last week,
- 8:41we were excited that we had lots of space and time to discuss Series
- 8:43two coming out because there weren't many injuries between Mooki and all the other ones
- 8:50we're about to discuss. It's been quite the bloodbath again this week as the
- 8:54next major one that we have also hit the Dodgers Yoshinobo Yamamodo. Initially it
- 8:58looked like a string triceps he's been placed on the il, and subsequently they
- 9:03found out it's a rotator cuff, so that's not great. News in terms
- 9:07of the kinetic chain and where it's working its way back. What are you
- 9:11doing with Yamamoto in dynasty leagues? Because this is I think the number one
- 9:18concern I had in terms of him coming over is could he handle the workload
- 9:24of pitching a major league baseball He is a smaller guy. He used to
- 9:28pitch in Japan once a week, so it's a different schedule here in MLB.
- 9:33And it looks like his shoulder wore down. So are you considering maybe
- 9:39moving on from him in dynasty keeper situations in terms of just trying to unravel
- 9:45yourself before maybe something more significant happens. Yeah, I think that's a fair
- 9:50point. I would I'm not too aggressive at this point. I think I'm
- 9:54listening to offers. Is the way I look at it. Like if I
- 9:56invested heavily and you know somebody's will to pay, I would say ninety cents
- 10:01in the dollar. I'm I'm I'm willing to listen and look at it,
- 10:05but I'm not selling too early in a dynasty league. You know, he's
- 10:09still very young, and you know we've seen this with a number of players
- 10:16that have come over that it seems like they they do struggle the first year
- 10:20or two, like adapting their bodies to the workload, and then after that
- 10:26point then all of a sudden they seem to take off. And so the
- 10:30talents there, the skill is absolutely there. I'm willing to kind of give
- 10:33it a shot and wait until he does get healthy, and then if he
- 10:37does get healthy and starts looking good, I'm definitely looking to sell them right
- 10:43now. I'm probably being a little headstincs. I think the value as low
- 10:46as it's going to be for a while. That said, rotator cuffs,
- 10:50they are very, very backy. That is not something you want to mess
- 10:54with. Even if they say he's back healthy. That's one of those ones
- 11:00that he will feel fine, but he will he will lose miles per hour
- 11:05on that fastball he this. The shoulder takes a lot more time to build
- 11:09up the strength. It's not an elbow where it's just like you know,
- 11:13flapjack kind of type thing going on where you just don't feel like it's there.
- 11:18The shoulder, you feel like you've got it, you just don't have
- 11:20as much power, and that takes a good while to build up. And
- 11:24I and I think if he's really truly you know, strained that rotator cuff,
- 11:28and the fact that they're saying it's going to be some time, not
- 11:31season ending like I'm I'm thinking he's back in like September throwing a little bit
- 11:39just to try to show he can do it. Maybe make it back for
- 11:43the playoff type of thing in the bullpen roll. Otherwise, I'm not too
- 11:46too thrilled about the last rest of the season here. So but I take
- 11:50it from your the way you asked the question that you might be looking to
- 11:52move on a little more aggressively than even I am. So what are your
- 11:56thoughts here on yaw with Moto. I don't know. I was open enough
- 12:00to kind of feel you out and see where you were at. I think
- 12:03I'm starting to consider it if you do hold Yamamoto, because I mean,
- 12:07part of the problem is everybody else kind of sees it coming from a mile
- 12:11away. But I think it's something you have to wait for him to get
- 12:16healthy from and then move him in the off season. Hopefully he's healthy by
- 12:20line so that you can consider this. But it is also just the overall
- 12:26strategy I'm always kind of taking with pictures, as you know, and like
- 12:28in one of our aut new leagues. I had a very cheap Jared Jones,
- 12:33and I moved him the first moment I could for Juan Soto. That
- 12:37it's a it's a constant game of trying to juggle the performance of your pictures
- 12:43and maximize the value that you can juice out of them in the trade market.
- 12:48And I think part of the problem. Actually, in another week I
- 12:52was in I was close to trading Yamamoto before this start that I was within
- 12:58like an hour or two of executing a trade, and it got pulled back
- 13:01as Yamamoto left that outing, and so like that's how quickly you can disappear
- 13:07on you. So it's really I think one of the most difficult parts of
- 13:11playing in dynasty and keeper leagues is just trying to balance your overall rotation and
- 13:18preparing for the possibility that some of these guys will just never return to that
- 13:24peak because of shoulder, elbows, whatever else might go on. Yeah,
- 13:30I think that same league, I have a rotation of Blake Snell, Spinster
- 13:33Striter, Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer. So I think
- 13:41you and I are playning on different ends of the same spectrum here yeah,
- 13:46maybe this is why like the trades happened in our league's I guess it's like
- 13:52very mutually beneficial. Okay, if you have fifteen pitchers, as long as
- 13:56only a third of your staff's hurt, you're good. Yeah. As I
- 14:00also, like say big and had like I knew that Spencer Raghetty that start
- 14:05when he had to sub in for Verlander the other night was not gonna go
- 14:09well. And I still rolled with it because is Detroit and I it's okay.
- 14:13I rolled with Grew Thorpe the other day just because I was so excited
- 14:16that Drew Thorpe was up and he I mean I saw reports of Drew Thorpe
- 14:20in his first game, was like, oh, I was surprised, you
- 14:22know, his fastball played. We weren't concerned. I'm like, I watched
- 14:26like two indies of that thing, and that fastball was not playing, Like
- 14:28every hit was a hard hit out, and I'm like, man, this
- 14:33is gonna be bad. And I just rolled with them the next time through,
- 14:35like well, why not play with fire again? I mean, yeah,
- 14:39you know that when you bench them there, that's when they're gonna go
- 14:43off. But speaking of justin Verlander, he is also hitting the il with
- 14:48a next strain, And I think this is also really concerning. A lot
- 14:52of the reports that I was seeing around it weren't overly concerned because when you
- 14:58think of next, I think a lot lot of us can relate to you
- 15:01know, you slept wrong, You've had had neck for a couple of days,
- 15:05and it can just kind of you know how that can burden you trying
- 15:09to work at a computer desk and just run errands that trying to pitch seems
- 15:15impossible. But I think what really worries me about this is in pitchers a
- 15:20lot you see a relationship between the shoulder and the neck kind of coming together
- 15:26in injuries. And this also goes back to I mean, last year Verlander
- 15:31was missing time because of that shoulder. He's been battling it again this year,
- 15:37and I mean, I think this is really starting to get to a
- 15:41point where I think we're about in the same boat with Verlander in terms of
- 15:46just like, I don't know if you can count on him for the rest
- 15:48of the season, because it's very evident that he's pitching through some sort of
- 15:54more major shoulder issue, I think, and just trying to gut it.
- 15:58Out to rack up the stats for Hall of Fame voting and just his overall
- 16:06legacy, I think, and I know that sounds maybe a little bit harsh,
- 16:08but it does also seem like he's not going to be willing to leave
- 16:14the game before the game leaves him. And so I just want to see,
- 16:18like, if you're maybe starting to see the same sort of signs here
- 16:21with Justin Ferlander, and considering especially like, yeah, if you're in a
- 16:25pretty shallow league, I think there's a pretty good case to be made that
- 16:30if you need the roster space, Justin Verlander can probably be placed back into
- 16:34your free agent pool. Yeah, I think you're right there. It's the
- 16:40Nelson Cruz of pitchers. Yes, you know, win, you know,
- 16:45super talented, amazing, it's just a matter of win. And it's just
- 16:48like your one injury away from this being the end, not by your choice,
- 16:52but by the team's choice. It says, yeah, I just can't
- 16:55invest here anymore. And this is the second year in a row that we've
- 17:00seen verlanders fastball drop off from a speed perspective. You know, back in
- 17:07twenty twenty two, he was throwing ninety five on his foreseeing fastball. He
- 17:15is now down to ninety three and a half miles an hour, So he's
- 17:17lost a mile and a half per hour on that fastball and that pitch,
- 17:22you know, the value of that pitch has basically become neutral. And back
- 17:30two years ago, that pitch was like the best pitch he had by far.
- 17:36That in like one of the best fastballs in the majors. With the
- 17:38movement that he had on that guys were hitting, I don't know that they
- 17:44were hitting pretty much like two thirty off off the thing if that now they're
- 17:52hit about two hundred, slugging like two eighty to ninety off of fastball,
- 17:57and now they're looking like four to seventy off the thing. You know,
- 18:03the strikeouts are are, you know, way off, Like it's just it
- 18:08does look like he's either hurt or he's just hit that point. And so
- 18:12I'm not sticking around your point shallow leagues, I'm not. I've got so
- 18:18many ile spots taken up this year everywhere else. I've got like eight guys
- 18:22on aisle, which is half my bench spots in some leagues because you just
- 18:26can't, especially dynasty leaser, you can't drop guys like it's it's it's tough.
- 18:30So I'm I'm willing to start moving on from Berlander here, especially if
- 18:33somebody else just looks at this and goes, oh, it's just gonna be
- 18:36you know, a few weeks. Maybe you can get a little something out
- 18:38of them. Yeah, we're gonna work on trying to enforce your resolutions here
- 18:44for next year. Yeah, it's I'm a lost cause I did. I
- 18:48didn't own any shares of Orlander this year. Sure as are. On the
- 18:51other hand of a different question, I mean, I think that's gonna work
- 18:53out, as he's going to be back here pretty soon. You with Verlander's
- 18:59injury spent, Getty should walk into that rotation in Houston and continue having a
- 19:04full time role. And I know people might have been scared off after he
- 19:10did have that just dud of an outing with seven orned runs over an inning
- 19:15and a third, But like I said, keep that, keep in mind
- 19:18that he did not know he was starting that morning until Justin Berlander came in
- 19:23and said, hey, my NeXT's not working correctly. So whenever you have
- 19:27a starter in that type of situation, you shouldn't be playing them unless you're
- 19:33me and are extremely foolish, because what I was also caught up in is
- 19:37Spencer Agetty's been starting to turn the corner down in Houston that before that,
- 19:41in six starts, he had thrown thirty one innings with ten point five k
- 19:48nine with a three nineteen RA and kind of morphed into what we were hoping
- 19:53he could be in terms of this. Sure, maybe the walks will be
- 19:56high. They were in the mid fours over nine during that time. But
- 20:00he provides good strikeouts pitches for a decently decent team and has a pretty good
- 20:07skill set. It's just kind of waiting for all those things to bold together
- 20:11that I'm in on Spencer Araghetty going forward, because, yeah, assuming he
- 20:17doesn't have to be told that he's starting just hours before a game, he
- 20:22should be a much more dependable starter. Yeah. I'm probably a little more
- 20:26on the watch with Raghetti's just the overall profile is not as ideal for me,
- 20:32so I'm being a little bit more patient on that one. But hey,
- 20:34it to get lucky, you gotta make the move now. Yeah,
- 20:38exactly. Okay, next injury we have is Boba Schett hit the injured list
- 20:44with a calf strain up in Toronto. The corresponding move was that the Blue
- 20:48Jays called up Irrelvus Martinez, who still hasn't made his debut. I think
- 20:53that, yeah, he's been he last night, didn't get into the game
- 20:59on Tuesday night, he's not in the lineup, so he's just kind of
- 21:00hang out in Toronto, sitting on the bench, soaking it all in.
- 21:06But with Bushett going down, it should allow as In Barger to really shine
- 21:12in terms of like getting a full time role that was already kind of slated
- 21:15to happen once they cut Dan Vogelbach and Spencer Horowitz should also maintain his full
- 21:22time role as they're really starting to move away from David Schneider, who's been
- 21:26struggling. On top of it all, I mean, the Toronto lineup is
- 21:30just an absolute mess, Like none of these players that are playing up to
- 21:37their expectations and it's just really dragging all their stats down. I can tell
- 21:41you that as a more than fifty percent Vlad junior owner, I think across
- 21:45my leagues just I don't even know what that happened. I was the one
- 21:48on here selling him in January and he just kept falling. But now I
- 21:53know why, and so I guess this is more of like, I'm just
- 21:57checking in to see what are you doing with Bobachett because he was really really
- 22:03struggling before this. I all sent slashing two thirty seven, two eighty six,
- 22:07three forty two. It's only an eighty WRC plus four homers four steals.
- 22:14It's been a really really poor season. That's I mean, that's worse
- 22:18than Paul de Young's line that you would have been better playing Paul to Young
- 22:21all season in your fantasy leagues over Bobachett. So I've never had Bobachett shares
- 22:27because it's always been too expensive for me. And this is part of the
- 22:30reason why he just never really hit the ball hard enough to be able to
- 22:37counteract when the I went away. And it looks like maybe that's starting to
- 22:41happen, And what are you doing him with longer term leagues? And for
- 22:45this year? Yeah, I mean I Bobachett has been dropping down my rankings
- 22:51significantly this year. Uh, going this weekend before before the injury, I
- 22:56had him down a number fifty seven overall hitter like right nex like Tyler O'Neill
- 23:00and Jaron Duran ondress andress him Andez like yeah, you know, not not
- 23:06anything to write home about it, And you hit the nail on the head
- 23:07like he he had a great first year and decent second year and since then,
- 23:15like the power hasn't been there. Really a guy that seems like he
- 23:18should have been able to take advantage of the rule changes for so on bases
- 23:23hasn't done anything with that. So I have really moved on from Boba Schett.
- 23:29Like if I somehow still have him, am I shopping him right now?
- 23:34Probably I'm still probably shopping him. I'm probably trying to sell him for
- 23:38thirty cents on the dollars. Yeah, I was already like seventy five cents
- 23:41on the dollars. So I'm moving on hard from Bushett. Uh to your
- 23:45point, like what else is coming up? Mark Martinez doesn't excite me too
- 23:51much under Power. He does looked better this year and the miners from not
- 23:56striking out every that, But you know, I I think that he's going
- 24:00to be a little overwhelmed when he gets you know, a few chances.
- 24:03So he's a guy that I would want to see a little bit more from.
- 24:07The guy that's actually a little bit more intriguing to me is is Spencer
- 24:11Horowitz a lot better profile, not nearly the same name as his name value
- 24:18as the rest of these guys, But I think he has a lot to
- 24:22bring to the table, and he's a guy that I'd be willing to throw,
- 24:30you know, throw some throw some bab money at and try to try
- 24:33to pick him up depending on where you're sitting. We're talking about a guy
- 24:36that you know, really knows how to control the bat. He this year
- 24:41in triple A, he walked sixteen percent of the time, struck out fifteen
- 24:45percent of the time. He had ten homers, nine steals, Like he
- 24:48consistently is kind of a middling power, middling steel threat with middling average like
- 24:55but all of this is just above average, And so that's the kind of
- 24:59guy that sneaks under the like. This is a weird comparison because I just
- 25:03don't, you know, see them if you look at them to compare,
- 25:07but like a tiny fan type of guy, where like he's just just good
- 25:12and nobody's too excited about it, so everybody kind of passes him up.
- 25:17And he also has got good eligibility. He can play in multile different positions.
- 25:19So I Horriwitz, if anybody is the guy that I'm kind of keen
- 25:23in on because if he's gonna have a role here and he's able to maintain
- 25:26that, I'm I'm willing to see kind of what comes out of it.
- 25:30So, but to your point, dumpster fire in Toronto and uh, if
- 25:34I if I'm not touching that lineup, I'm not too upset. I'm actually
- 25:38using that lineup inversely to go shopping throughout my leagues to see who's in troubles.
- 25:44Yeah. Yeah, I think it's a it's a great call, and
- 25:47I agree. I think Horwitz probably is maybe the one of the players that
- 25:52I mentioned that will have a shot at becoming relevant in like twelve and ten
- 25:56teamers, parbably because he's leading off and so that just creates lots of good
- 26:02run opportunities. He should produce a WRC plus in excess of one hundred,
- 26:07should have second basem eligibility, so that's gonna be fantastic. I think in
- 26:12longer term leagues, I'm keeping a very close eye on both Martinez and Barger.
- 26:18I think Barger could actually maybe push to some relevance in leagues this season
- 26:23that he hits the ball really hard, he doesn't walk very much. But
- 26:27if he can just start putting the bat on the ball a little bit more.
- 26:32He really struggled to strikeouts his first time in the majors, but he's
- 26:37been showing all the skills that you needed at Triple A that he's kind of
- 26:41got to prove it now that he can translate it into major league baseball.
- 26:45Martinez is just twenty two, and I think that if you're in a longer
- 26:48term dynasty keeper league, this is the type of player where like it's a
- 26:55little bit of like the anti Bobaschett coming up, where the k rate is
- 27:00extreme and so you're thinking, ah, man, maybe this guy is going
- 27:03to be flawed and just not be able to hack it. But the ability
- 27:07for him to hit for power is well known. He impacts the ball great,
- 27:12and I think that, like, if he can get a good taste
- 27:15this season, I'm not sure if I'm interested as much for the rest of
- 27:19twenty twenty four just because of that k rate, but if he can flash
- 27:26some pretty nice max exit velocities and show I think this is a good opportunity
- 27:32to use some of those new batswing metrics, especially the bat speed, to
- 27:36see just what he's doing. And I think it could be an opportunity to
- 27:41buy in the off season, especially if Toronto embarks sun and overhaul of this
- 27:45roster. Martinez should enter that lineup on an everyday basis for twenty twenty five.
- 27:52Yeah. I think you're right. He's the longer play of this group
- 27:57and he has always seemed to struggle every stop when he first got there.
- 28:02Yes, and so he if he can get if this is their chance to
- 28:06get him kind of loosened up. Besides the fact he's sitting every game since
- 28:10got called up. You think it's Baltimore, but at least you know if
- 28:15you need to get some games in this season and then next year would be
- 28:18we'll be fun to watch. Yeah, definitely. Okay, next injury we
- 28:22have is Michael Harris, the second down in Atlanta, straining his hammy,
- 28:26So he should be out probably two to four weeks, somewhere in that range.
- 28:30Could be back a little bit earlier if there was a DA spot available
- 28:34down in Atlanta, but there never will be with Marcelo Zena, so in
- 28:40his stead, the Braves will be playing a platoon of Forrest Wall and Ramon
- 28:45Loriano to replace him. Only the deepest like and all only leagues should you
- 28:49be considering those players? Wallt does intrigue me because he's put up some crazy
- 28:53STOLEM based numbers. I just don't know how much he can get on to
- 28:56be able to use that speed. It's a little bit of like Darren Blanco
- 29:00for the Kansas City Royals that if he's got a role and you're in an
- 29:06only league, sure, but otherwise those guys aren't gonna be usable in any
- 29:11other leagues. But with Michael Harris the second, it's been a little bit
- 29:15of a tough year here as he has regressed from where he was last year.
- 29:18And I really thought he was destined for a big year because of his
- 29:22ability to move up in that Atlanta order. He's only hit two fifty and
- 29:27put up an eighty three WRC plus. It's been just to really I don't
- 29:33know what to make of Michael Harris. So I'm coming to you the Batter
- 29:37Savant to see if you can interpret his page for me on Fangrafts and on
- 29:42Baseball Savant to tell me what is going on with this guy? Yeah,
- 29:48I mean, I hate to say this, but like I think this is
- 29:51who he is now. You know, if you go back and look at
- 29:56prior years like his Baseball Savan page, like all this red and things like
- 29:59that. But he's always really struggled with his approach to the plate. He's
- 30:07never been the guy that walks a ton, that really controls the strikeouts,
- 30:11and that's always really been an achilles heel for him. You know, this
- 30:15year he's bottom fourth percentile in walk rate. He's been a little better from
- 30:22the strike up perspective, but he also chases the ball all the time,
- 30:26so he's swinging at hate said, bad pitches, and that's that's not ideal.
- 30:33If you look at the average for MLB on percent chase and if you've
- 30:38seen looked at this, don't look yet, it's twenty eight point four percent.
- 30:42Guess the chase rate for Michael Harris. Oh, I don't know what
- 30:47the league chase rate is. The league is twenty eight four. Leagu's twenty
- 30:51eight four, twenty eight four. I think Harris is around forty usually forty
- 30:56three. Okay, so yeah, he's around fort He's been thirty nine thirty
- 31:00eight. Now he's jumped up to forty three. And he also makes contact
- 31:06at a better rate on those than the league as well, and so I
- 31:11can tell you that's not good because you're not making contact with right pitches and
- 31:18when you do that, it just doesn't lead to good results. So when
- 31:22he's making contact with the right pitches, that's where you see you know,
- 31:26this high you know, max x of velocity and the bat speed, all
- 31:33those things look good. His max xCE velocity this year top six percent in
- 31:37the league. Because when he's making contact in the right pitches, it works.
- 31:42But you don't say, the right ones but don't work, And so
- 31:45that that's really the downfall of Michael Harris's bat speed is top twenty percent of
- 31:52the league. It's that's really really good. And so we've talked about this
- 31:56before. He is a guy that needs to be the top of the lineup
- 31:57taking advantage of his speed like that. But I think the reason that Landa
- 32:02struggled with him is that he's he's just not the matured as a hitter as
- 32:07they hope. I mean, he's still only twenty three years old, so
- 32:10he's still a young guy. But it's been a tough year and I think
- 32:16this is likely who Harris is unless he's going to really adjust his approach.
- 32:22Yeah, and I think a lot of that played approach is what causes these
- 32:29up and down streaky just streaks, yeah, streaky streaks that you can see
- 32:35it if you go to the splits on his Fangrass page and just look at
- 32:39like the monthly batting averages throughout his entire career. It is quite the roller
- 32:45coaster ride. And so it works because in aggregate in a rotisserie league,
- 32:50it gets you to where his value usually is. It's just that I think
- 32:54this year we haven't seen one of those upswings yet, so we're I think
- 33:01it's actually a pretty good buying opportunity if you have a disgruntled Michael Harris owner
- 33:07in your league that I think this will kind of even itself out more so
- 33:12by the end of the season that who knows, maybe this was supposed to
- 33:15be his predestined hot streak here that he's on the eyel for. But that's
- 33:19also why I think there are players out there in the pool that are really
- 33:24good rodo players and awful awful had to head players, and this is one
- 33:29of them. Because the ebbs and flows of Michael Harris's season are just so
- 33:34extreme, you're going to be losing a lot and head to headgame head to
- 33:37head leagues, but in a rotisseary league, I love this type of player
- 33:42because you just put him in one of your outfields spots and just don't look
- 33:45at those last fourteen days on him sometimes and just like let it go.
- 33:52I can't do that. I tinker too much. I got to lose.
- 33:55Yeah, you gotta like have some steady eddies. So it's good if he
- 34:00played on the West Coast, I'd be fine because then I wouldn't know it's
- 34:05fantastic. Yeah, all right. Well, the next injury is one that
- 34:09I think we were all waiting for the shoe to drop on this, and
- 34:13that is Kyle Bradish going down and needing Tommy John surgery. He kind of
- 34:17had it in secret today after he was placed back on the al with that
- 34:22elbow sprain that kept him out in the beginning of the season. I appreciated
- 34:27his service during this season in terms of the innings that he provided because they
- 34:32were like ACE level innings in terms of what we were looking for from our
- 34:37fantasy leagues. In his thirty nine point one innings, he put up a
- 34:42twelve point one knine with a two seventy five era. I wrote that to
- 34:46be able to move into first place in the Experts League for rasball. So
- 34:52there was one week where I was the team of the week because I had
- 34:55like a eighty innings with like a sub one ear and someone whip and Kyle
- 35:00Bradish was part of that reason. So goodbye, sweet Prince Kyle Bradish for
- 35:06all the great work that you did in those thirty nine innings. But we
- 35:07will see you in twenty twenty six. And this hurts if you're an Orioles
- 35:15fan, because here's your rotation right now. It is ugly. It is
- 35:19Corbyn Burns who might win the cy Young anchoring it at the top, followed
- 35:22by Grayson Rodriguez, and then you have Albert Suarez, Katee Povich, Cole
- 35:28Irvin Dean Kramer should be back soon, but John Means is out with Tommy
- 35:32John. Tyler Wells is out with Tommy John. The next man up in
- 35:37triple A is either Bruce Zimmerman or Julio Tehran. So it's starting to get
- 35:44really dicey in Baltimore. We kind of talked about this in the preseason,
- 35:47and so I guess, is there anything that you think you might change strategy
- 35:53wise from like owning any of these pictures in Baltimore or like their release or
- 36:00even maybe they're bats that like, do you think that there is some sort
- 36:02of malaise that could happen that could bring the entire team down. Yeah,
- 36:07So I think the only angle I have on this one one because I'm not
- 36:12really interested in any of the pictures. Maybe Povich just to see what happens,
- 36:17but even him, I'm a little little dicey on with that profile.
- 36:22The play to me is guys like Hessen, Kirstad Connor Norby, probably not
- 36:30Mayo, but any of those kind of Ryan Mountcastle maybe a little bit,
- 36:36but he's skept the playing time. Any of those guys that they're kind of
- 36:37messing around with and they can't quite figure out what to do with they're getting
- 36:42traded. They are gonna get traded into a decent spot where they're gonna play
- 36:47every day, and that is exciting to me. So if you're looking through
- 36:52trying to figure out, you know, what to do about it, I
- 36:54think those are those are the guys. Maybe a Kyle Stowers know he's still
- 37:00got some potential down there as well. That's where I'm kind of looking at
- 37:04this one, hoping for uh, to catch a little lighting the bottle maybe
- 37:08in Austin Hayes gets out of out of Baltimore because they're still a good team
- 37:15and a good team. They're a really good team, and they're pitching is
- 37:21dreadful. They're hitting is fantastic, so you need to go out there and
- 37:25rectify that. And I think that they thought Bradish was gonna get was gonna
- 37:30be that. And don't get me wrong, to your point, he was
- 37:31free money, fantastic. I use him as well and just pluged him in
- 37:37every time, and he was not up or down. He was just steady
- 37:39at any great looks fantastic. The only reason you he was hurt is they
- 37:44announced it. He didn't look hurt, so that that's disappointing. But that's
- 37:50my my take. That's my only angle is I'm I'm some of those hitters
- 37:53where I was a little bit maybe shopping them or using this trade fodder.
- 37:57I'd be holding on it a little bit now because I think they might get
- 37:59an opportun to hear before too long. Okay, yeah, I think that's
- 38:01a great take, all right. The next injury we have is Anthony Rizzo,
- 38:07first baseman for the New York Yankees fractured his It was technically like his
- 38:13radial neck where they're starting to get really specific with the injury names. It's
- 38:16a part of like your radius that is near your elbow. It's just like
- 38:22a area on the actual radius. So that is what he broke on his
- 38:29forearm. I think he's going to be out like six to eight weeks,
- 38:31pretty much the same timeline that like Wilson Contrero's has been on. And I
- 38:37mean, honestly, it might be the best thing that happened to the Yankees
- 38:40because they were already starting to run into a little bit of an issue of
- 38:45like what do we do with Anthony Rizzo as he was hitting only two twenty
- 38:50three with an eighty four WRC plus and eight homers. It just wasn't coming
- 38:55together for him, as I think, Age is really sorry to catch up
- 39:00with him, and he just isn't able to impact the ball the way he
- 39:04used to and get around on it. So there were always murmurings that the
- 39:08Yankees could be bringing up Ben Rice, which is what they did to be
- 39:13able to take Anthony Rizzo's spot. And I know that you and I were
- 39:16really excited about that because in our Autney league that we were talking about with
- 39:21those Mookie bets and Wan Sutto shares, we got into a headhead auction of
- 39:28bidding for Ben Rice, who I think he's going to be a pretty significant
- 39:32ad this weekend in fab bids, because this dude's walking into Yankee Stadium as
- 39:38a left handed bat with Ketra eligibility and he looks legit Like I it was
- 39:45one game last night, but it's a little bit in the same way of
- 39:50like you could just tell when you saw the first few at bats and the
- 39:52majors from Why at Langford that you're just like, this guy knows how to
- 39:58not be blown over in the box and can hold his own And I mean,
- 40:02this is exactly the type of magic where like this turns into just a
- 40:09little bit of like a run for a Yankees player. And so I know
- 40:14that you're in on Ben Rice too, So tell me what you see in
- 40:16the profile and what excites you about Rice. Well, first of all,
- 40:21I have to know, because this has been killing me. Yeah, you
- 40:23put Ben Rice up for nominations in this league, and I have to believe
- 40:29you did not have the same bid on him when you put him up.
- 40:32Is when it finished because he got called up after the fact. What bid
- 40:36did you have in on him when you nominated him? Because I had a
- 40:38different bid and I changed it, and I was I was after ben Rice,
- 40:43and I want to know if I would have had him because we we
- 40:45had the exact same bid and tiebreaker. I was having the standings. So
- 40:49you got ben Rice and so what was your bid for the wherever we're listening?
- 40:53We ended up at six dollars where you took him home on that one?
- 40:58Where was your bid? So I guess I didn't even like include that
- 41:01wrinkle is that I actually put ben Rice up for bid before he even came
- 41:05up, that the correct announcement of the injury came up because I lost J
- 41:09T rail Muto and was making a bye with Lilgano Hoppy. But I just
- 41:14needed the next kind of lightning in a bottle catcher, and I was like,
- 41:17hey, you know what, I bet the Yankees bring Ben Rice up
- 41:20here within the next month, and that's the route that I went. So
- 41:23I initially only had like a two dollars bid in and then when Rizzo got
- 41:30hurt, I upped it to five. And then the morning yesterday morning,
- 41:35like right before it was about to execute. I was like, you know
- 41:37what, six, I have enough calorie salary cap room. I'm gonna go
- 41:42six. I'm really glad that I did. I had a three dollar bid
- 41:45on him when you first put him off. Oh, so you would have
- 41:47won him that time too, And I put a six dollar bit on the
- 41:52second Rizzo got hurt. Well, it makes you feel better in the in
- 41:55the next in the next five games the Yankees, in the next seven games,
- 42:01in the next nine games, the Yankees face six left handers. So
- 42:07I'm not sure how much Ben rice action I'm going to get in, but
- 42:10uh yeah, I'm looking forward to some hot summer weather in the Bronx.
- 42:15But what do you mean about his profile? Yeah, you know, this
- 42:19is one of the kind of guys that I really do like from a hitter
- 42:22perspective, that he has a little bit of speed, not crazy speed,
- 42:27but it's gonna call it sneaky speed. The kind of guy that can you
- 42:30know, toss in five in bases throughout a season, maybe maybe sliding more.
- 42:35He's got good power. You can project him for a twenty twenty five
- 42:39homer type of guy without too much trouble. And there's a good floor.
- 42:44Like he he is a patient hitter at the plate. He's never really shown
- 42:49a strikeout issue in the minors. He's he's always been able to get on
- 42:52base, and he's just consistently He's one of those guys that consistently has delivered
- 42:59every single level that he's been at. He you know, if you look
- 43:02at his numbers there, I don't think that he's ever struggled outside of like
- 43:07his first season in a ball he had twenty games, he had two ten
- 43:13like in twenty twenty one. Beyond that, like, he has been a
- 43:16hitter every single level, and you know they you know, defense is more
- 43:22of the question with him than anything else. He and he's also a smart
- 43:28guy, student of the game. I could just be making this assumption,
- 43:31but he's a Dartmouth guy, so like you got to be smart to go
- 43:35to Dartmouth. We're get a baseball scholarship. So who knows, But like
- 43:38he just seems like a really really good, solid player that isn't going to
- 43:45be bothered to your point by the big lights in the Bronx. You know,
- 43:50is if you looked at what he's done the last So if you went
- 43:57in for twenty twenty four. Well, I was trying to look there's different.
- 44:06I lost the notes here. There is this the start of twenty twenty
- 44:09three, one hundred and thirty three games in the miners hit three h two
- 44:14four sixteen OBP five sty sent a slug with thirty five homers in twenty stolen
- 44:17bases, struck out less than twenty percent of the time. So things looked
- 44:22fantastic. So I'm I really like the profile. I think there's a lot
- 44:27of potential there. To your point cut your eligibility, Yeah, I think
- 44:30you broke it down and just really well, that's all the same sort of
- 44:35stuff I saw, and maybe like the one thing that I would add is
- 44:38that you put that walk rate in the Yankees lineup too. That is exactly
- 44:44what you're looking for in terms of being able to provide some floor and from
- 44:49a run production RBI production. And so yeah, he debuted last night Hit
- 44:54six to the lineup, and Rice is getting that start tonight at seventh in
- 45:00the batting order, supporting Garrett Cole, who is making his Yankees' debut tonight
- 45:05as we are speaking, actually already wrapped up his outing because he went sixty
- 45:12two pitches over four innings and allowed two runs. On let's see what happened
- 45:17here. It looks like he had a ground world double that Ryan O'Hearn hit
- 45:22off of him, and then also gave up a ramone Urias. Oh no,
- 45:30he didn't give up that homer, but then he couldn't get out of
- 45:32the fifth. That's actually what happened. He ran into some trouble and ramone
- 45:36Urias drove in Cedric Mullens there, and so his velocity also looks like it
- 45:42was down. So Cole's velocity last year was averaging around ninety six point seven.
- 45:47In the outing tonight it was ninety five point one, which actually isn't
- 45:52too bad considering usually guys ramp up a little bit as the season goes on.
- 45:57And you also have to think Cole didn't get a spring training. He's
- 46:00probably still working his way back into things. So I like to see that
- 46:05overall. Obviously, we just talked about Kyle Bradish his elbow not responding correctly
- 46:12after being diagnosed with the sprain early in the spring. Garrett Cole took a
- 46:15little bit longer to take to get back, and so I'm sure that sprain
- 46:21is still there in some capacity. But the Yankees actually have had some success
- 46:25for this and with this in the past that Masahiro Tanaka also had the same
- 46:30sort of issue where he had a sprained UCL he pitched through. So I'm
- 46:35glad to see that Cole's actually up in his velocity range. And I'm wondering,
- 46:38you know where you placing him in terms of the top starting pitchers in
- 46:43the game now for the rest of the season. Yeah, I mean it's
- 46:46it's Garrett Cole and number one, and he's looked good. I don't know
- 46:52if I put him number one, but I you know, Corbyn Burns might
- 46:58be right up there at number one, and then Garrett Cole. He's easily
- 47:01in the top three or four for me without looking too closely. And so
- 47:06I it's just a matter of how long it's gonna take for him to get
- 47:09back to full innings full strength. But I think because the Yankees, they
- 47:17they don't really have a strong lead out there in the in the Al East
- 47:22because Baltimore, but they also don't want they want to have Cole the rest
- 47:25of the season. I think they're gonna baby him a little bit to get
- 47:30him back into things. I mean, that's kind of what they did tonight.
- 47:32They he could have stuck around and he got in trouble. It's Garrett
- 47:36Cole, he could he could get out of trouble. So I think they're
- 47:38gonna baby him for a little bit here next, maybe three or four starts
- 47:42before they really turn a loose. But at the same time, it's Garrett
- 47:45Cole. You're if you have him, you've held him this long, you
- 47:49are plug and playing every single time on who it's against. He is probably
- 47:53the top two three pitchers pitchers in the game right now. Yeah, I
- 47:57mean, I think that's fair that you probably we got Burns and Wheeler that
- 48:01are ahead of him in my book. And then I mean, I'm just
- 48:05looking at Marmo's dad's rankings right now the top one hundred Scoobal came in third,
- 48:09and he's been getting a little unsteady recently. Tyler glassnow comes after him.
- 48:15I think if you had to like pick one starter, Glass now would
- 48:21go like or like one start, Glass now would go over Cole. I
- 48:23think. But when you consider the entire injury history behind Glass now has never
- 48:29made more than twenty starts in the season. That's probably why Glass now isn't
- 48:34number one. But yeah, I mean I think Cole is going to enter
- 48:37right back into that conversation because we've lost a lot of arms at the top
- 48:40of the list there as the season has gone on. Yeah, you're not
- 48:46wrong, that's that's the nature. Yeah exactly. Yeah, it is not
- 48:52very nice to those who practice it. And the last topic I wanted to
- 48:55get on is, I mean mostly a send to Josea bray You as the
- 49:00Askers released him this week and they are eating the rest of that contract.
- 49:06I'm honestly I'm not sure where a bray You will land. If he does
- 49:12land anywhere that maybe there's a possibility the White Sox bring him back for a
- 49:15commemorative period of time. But he looked so lost, and you want to
- 49:21talk about not only like Anthony Rizzo, where like things have just like fallen
- 49:25apart, but things totally collapse on jose bray You. It's just like when
- 49:30you're living on that edge a little bit like Nelson Cruz You you alluded to
- 49:32as well, where once you're getting into that advanced age like that, it
- 49:37doesn't take much in terms of the quick twitch muscles and hand eye coordination to
- 49:43go in baseball for once MVP and multi time all start to just turn into
- 49:50somebody who doesn't even look like you could play indie ball. So yeah,
- 49:54like I said, I just wanted to dedicate this space to jose bray You
- 49:57to send him off, because we've talked about this before that if bray You
- 50:01didn't start his career in Cuba, I think we would be talking it about
- 50:06him in Hall of Fame consideration, like he would have had probably Nelson Crusius
- 50:13numbers with better hits overall, and just probably more All Star games. And
- 50:17he was a monster when he was in Cuba. So bray You will be
- 50:23sitting at home for the near future. And in the meantime, it looks
- 50:27like the Astros are going to go with John Singleton and like they're doing a
- 50:35weird kind of plat tune there with like Singleton, Trey Cabbage, Carotini and
- 50:39Chas McCormick are kind of getting rotation into the lineup as they're waking their way
- 50:45through. But our boy Joey lo Berfdo should be eligible to be recalled in
- 50:53a few days, so he went down on the eleventh, so I have
- 50:58to imagine he's going to work his way back in here, although Dana Brown,
- 51:02the GM for the Astros, actually said they're not going to play Lowperfito
- 51:07at first base, but I'll believe that when I see it, considering low
- 51:09Berffito just looks like a first baseman and I think he could hack it just
- 51:15fine. But yeah, well what do you make of that? The career
- 51:19of Jose braw and what maybe this could turn into first base wise in Houston.
- 51:28Yeah, to the Jose Carobras career. Yet he you know, he
- 51:30was a twenty seven year old when he came over from Cuba and he just
- 51:36off the races the second he hit. So if you if you project out
- 51:38his entire career in the majors, we were talking probably a guy that hit
- 51:44four hundred home runs, you know, he hit two eighty five to ninety,
- 51:50like he had an MVP Like you're definitely talking about, I wanna say,
- 51:54a French Hall of Famer playing first base, like, but a guy
- 51:58that's definitely in the conversation. And so I think kudos to Jose Breu.
- 52:01He's fantastic from a fantasy perspective, He's always been a fun guy, always
- 52:06underappreciated in the fantasy game. But love Jose Brew. I hate to say
- 52:12it, but I'm guessing this is the end for Jose Breo. He's still
- 52:15got a year and a half left in that contract. I know, you
- 52:16can go play for league minimum somewhere the old There's two teams that can sign
- 52:22him. It's the White Sox and the Dodgers, because the Dodgers signed everybody
- 52:27and their mother that falled on hard times to a minor league deal, just
- 52:30because everybody probably calls them up and then plays at Triple A. I don't
- 52:34know this one chance at a ring like one six, one hundred and sixty
- 52:37second chance or something, I don't know. But then to your point,
- 52:42the Astros, I'm not sure what they're doing at first base there. You
- 52:45know, I would actually be wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Tucker play some
- 52:50first base when he comes back from his injury. Looks like he's been a
- 52:52little slow to you know, get healthy, and they want that bat in
- 52:57the lineup, and so if they can keep you know, he's got to
- 52:59get those legs back under him, and if he's still got a little gimp
- 53:02to the step here, putting him at first base, is it not necessarily
- 53:07a bad idea. He's played there a little bit before in the past,
- 53:10I recall, so it'll be interesting to see. I don't think there's any
- 53:15huge moves. I think Little Brafito is the most interesting guy. If he
- 53:17can get constant, consistent of bats and really show what he's done with the
- 53:22minors and the translates, that's where it gets more exciting for me. But
- 53:25to your point, it seems like Houston's not fully convinced on Little Brafito at
- 53:30this point. Yeah. I agree. Well, that's going to wrap up
- 53:34our news and notes sections. So before we get into some of those hot
- 53:38hitters over the past thirty days, let's get into a few small card related
- 53:45discussions. So the first one we have is that the pre order for TOPS
- 53:49Chrome twenty twenty four came out this week, and they didn't put the release
- 53:52date out yet, so you're pre ordering for some unknown date. But it
- 53:58does seem that TOPS Chrome should be scheduled to come out probably late July ish
- 54:05if I had to kind of like read the tea leafs and based on when
- 54:07it usually does come out in the past, but the pre order is pretty
- 54:13significant this year. You're looking at a hobby box has jumped up to one
- 54:16hundred and ninety dollars for one hobby box that comes with one autograph in there,
- 54:22four pack for twenty four packs, four cards per pack, that is
- 54:28ninety six cards. That's almost two dollars a card out of a hobby box
- 54:31for tops chrome, which is stuff, it's like a it's a level we
- 54:37haven't seen since like the nineties, when honestly, like it was just a
- 54:42total manufacturing revelation that they were able to even make like finest and chrome cards
- 54:49that it like totally broke people's minds. So considering all of the chrome product
- 54:52out there, that is very steep, and you can see exactly why it's
- 54:57going to be priced like that. Elie de la Cruz is lapped right on
- 55:00the front of this product. They're let you know that, hey, this
- 55:02is the Elie de la Cruz Rookie Card Show, and if you want a
- 55:07jumbo box, you're looking at three hundred and ninety bucks. That was just
- 55:12a shade over three hundred I think last year. So that's also increased significantly
- 55:16same specs as last year, where you only get three autographs for the jumbo
- 55:22box, so you're paying you know, almost one hundred and thirty dollars per
- 55:29I mean actually exactly one hundred and thirty dollars per an autograph chance, which
- 55:31is absolutely bananas because again, once you see the checklist here, we talked
- 55:37about Series two actually having a surprisingly good autograph checklist, but the Chrome checklist
- 55:45is going to be peppered with all sorts of rookies. And you know that
- 55:49the likes of like a Chuckie Robinson has signed hundreds of more autographs than Elie
- 55:54de la Cruz has. So I just wanted to get your feel here on
- 55:59twenty twenty four tops Chrome and just kind of the signs that it is throwing
- 56:05up for us in this hobby overall. Yeah, it's It's a real tough
- 56:08one because one of my favorite products of the entire year. It's fantastic to
- 56:13open. I love all the different variations that you get with blasters and the
- 56:17hangars that you can get that usually have their own different variations. All the
- 56:22parallels are fun, they look they look cool. They can do so much
- 56:27more with those chrome finishes on them. So love it. To your point,
- 56:30man, is it getting expensive? It is? It is? You
- 56:34know, for me, it's becoming one of those breakers type of games with
- 56:37with chrome at this point, like if you want in, uh, it's
- 56:42your if you're chase. Even if you're chasing like the big names like the
- 56:45La and things like that, you were just so much better off buying into
- 56:47a Break or something like that, because if you're paying over one hundred bucks
- 56:52per like an auto just going after that that jumbo box, Like, it's
- 56:58not unreasonable that you're just gonna, you know, be totally totally disappointed.
- 57:02You're gonna and I'm just gonna pick random names from the checklist here, like
- 57:06all right, well, I got my Blake Rutherford auto. I've got my
- 57:12Davis Schneider which has actually been a terrible one and then might be good in
- 57:16the long run. Yeah, and then I I'm really gonna bring him home
- 57:21here with my Parker Meadows auto. Like, and I got a few hitters
- 57:25in there, right, It wasn't there's no midderal Leavers, Victor Bob Vodnik,
- 57:31Hunter Stratton from the Pirates. Yeah, I mean there's it's it's unfortunately
- 57:38just such an wide open auto checklist that you know, the likelihood that you
- 57:45really become out of even a jumbo box with one interesting auto is i'd say
- 57:52pretty low, and that's that's a pretty decent investment. And that's I think
- 57:54the problem we've seen with Chrome is that a lot of others that have a
- 58:00little more variation and a more cards available in the packs, you can kind
- 58:06of claw your money back to a certain degree, it's not as big of
- 58:08a penalty, but with Chrome, ripping that, like, it's not unreasonable
- 58:14that you can come through with three autos and like two numbered cards and a
- 58:17few parallels out of like that Jumbo plus all your base and you're looking at
- 58:22like, I've got forty bucks worth of cards here. It's you know,
- 58:27it's not unreasonable that that's where you land. And that's a pretty pretty i'd
- 58:31say standard outcome that you're looking at with Chrome. Uh So I'm I'm probably
- 58:37staying away from Chrome because if you think if you're gonna break it, if
- 58:39you're gonna go, you have to go to the Jumbo. I think that's
- 58:42that's where you have to go, uh because that's aspective, yeah, from
- 58:45an odds perspective, because otherwise you're not getting there, and you know,
- 58:51even going with the blasters and things like that, you're you're with those thirty
- 58:53dollars blasters these days, it's just it's gonna be tough. So I will
- 58:58be part taking in chrome, but to to that point, mostly from a
- 59:00breaker perspective going after my Cardinals, trying to find some Mason Win autos or
- 59:04something like that. But otherwise you're gonna be hard pressed to be ripping a
- 59:10lot of chrome. Yeah, and I mean blasters actually were last year were
- 59:15thirty five. I wouldn't be surprised if they're forty this year. Geez,
- 59:19that's clearly I didn't brought by any blasters last year. Yeah. Yeah,
- 59:22Well, speaking of Mason winning those Cardinals, I'm also going to I just
- 59:27want to get your reaction to this funny video that the Cardinals posted this on
- 59:30their Instagram this week, and I'll link to it in the show notes.
- 59:35Obviously, it's a great video of and lots of other teams have done this
- 59:38too, where the players are walking in and they've got a hobby box out
- 59:43there for the players to walk in and pick a pack and just kind of
- 59:47provide some free content for the Cardinals on the social media channels in terms of
- 59:52going through those cards and partnering with tops the packs that they had for this
- 59:59edition was twenty twenty three Alan Ginter. And so they're ripping it and going
- 1:00:04through and you know, you got your like Albert Poole's cards, your Jackie
- 1:00:07Robinson's, somebody pulled the Nolan Gorman auto and was joking about getting that signed
- 1:00:13later. I think, just like the nugget of this entire video and they
- 1:00:16totally bury the lead is that Michael Sianni out of this box of Alan and
- 1:00:22Ginter hobby, which is it's a tough product from a hobby perspective, that
- 1:00:28it's one of those products where the people that love Alan Ginter love Alan Ginter
- 1:00:32and love ripping it and getting all this the goofy little cards with the pictures
- 1:00:37of food and stuff. But Michael Sianni just pulls out an autograph Corbyn Carroll,
- 1:00:43like rookie card of the mini framed and it's just like Corbyn Carroll card
- 1:00:47signed, just like total deadpan. And I just wanted to show that to
- 1:00:55you and chare it with you because I knew you would appreciate it. That
- 1:00:59Yeah, how like anyone else's reaction that actually collects cards would have been freaking
- 1:01:04out. That's like one of the best polls in that product, like and
- 1:01:07they just just randomly tossed this box down and said, hey, just pull
- 1:01:10one out. And I mean I loved all the interactions, Like I think
- 1:01:14Lars Nuba was the first guy in. There's like you can never took the
- 1:01:15first back. You always gonna dig deeper in the box, like yeah,
- 1:01:20he knows what he's doing, right, And then to your Shani comes up
- 1:01:22and makes the best pull, like you know, uh, not the best
- 1:01:27pull of the product, but like one of the best cards that you'd be
- 1:01:30looking for, which is a Corbick Carroll Rookie auto. And maybe it's the
- 1:01:34fact that SI's got enough cash in his pockets with those big league paychecks.
- 1:01:37Maybe it's that it's a competing player and you can't be excited for them.
- 1:01:42But you know, it's just like literally there was like to your point is
- 1:01:45deadpan, Like he's just like this doesn't matter at all, And I'm like,
- 1:01:50can you literally picked the wrong guy to be ripping this this product?
- 1:01:54Like Mason Winn was all about it, like he was like a kid in
- 1:01:58the candy shop through looking for things. Miles Michaelist maybe not the same because
- 1:02:02he was just looking for anybody else with a mustache. But yeah, put
- 1:02:07him and Esther Cortez together and we've just got a comedy comedy gold. But
- 1:02:12I appreciate that. It made me feel good. And I wonder what happened
- 1:02:16to that corporate Carol Atto, like he's just sitting somewhere, Yeah, on
- 1:02:22the intern's desk for whoever was recording that video. For sure, that was
- 1:02:27like that guy's whole paycheck for a week. Absolutely. Okay, Well,
- 1:02:30we're going to wrap it up here and take a little break. We will
- 1:02:34be back after that break discussing hot hitters from the past three days that we
- 1:02:38are looking to acquire and pick up in leagues out there, So stick around,
- 1:03:00all right, Welcome back, everybody. Let's get into these last thirty
- 1:03:04day hot performers. And I mean I was going to intro this section with
- 1:03:08how we actually approach picking up players, but we kind of got into that
- 1:03:13after our Mookie Betts discussion. So if you skipped ahead to the section that
- 1:03:17you just wanted the analysis on these players, you should actually go back.
- 1:03:22And I'm not like a full time podcast producer. I have a regular job
- 1:03:27during the day, so I can't like bookmark everything you just have to rewind
- 1:03:31for a while. You can kind of see the order of where everything is.
- 1:03:34It's probably like what like the first ten minutes in when we discuss it,
- 1:03:38Go back find it and you can understand how the both of us approach
- 1:03:43picking up players and kind of deciding whether what we're seeing is a hot streak
- 1:03:49that's just been kind of babbit fueled or if it's actually a skills based change.
- 1:03:52And I think a lot of that comes into play when we're talking about
- 1:03:58last thirty days product. So that's why we're looking at it here. The
- 1:04:02tools on ras ball are fantastic for helping you be able to analyze these things,
- 1:04:08mostly because I just love that our tools immediately gives those dollar values for
- 1:04:13you in a standard twelve team league, that it just converts the overall production
- 1:04:17into numbers that I think you can understand a little bit more tangibly than when
- 1:04:24you're going through most of your websites out there, like CBS or fan tracks
- 1:04:29whatever. It gives you like a score or ranking of the player, and
- 1:04:32you don't know exactly how that's able to line up with others. And so
- 1:04:38I will link to that in the show notes that you can check out the
- 1:04:41last thirty day standings that we're using, and you can certainly parse that into
- 1:04:45last seven and then from there you can get the subscription tools I allow you
- 1:04:49to do things like the streaminators for pitching and hitting. I love that because,
- 1:04:54especially if you're facing a tough decision on a week where it's sometimes hard
- 1:04:58to synthesize a player with like seven games with his five games and trying to
- 1:05:02calculate out the dollar values, Rudy's already done it all for us. So
- 1:05:06it makes the decision making process just that much quicker and I really appreciate it.
- 1:05:13So let's kick it off here with the first player who in the last
- 1:05:16thirty days ranking as we are talking here on June nineteenth, has come in
- 1:05:23at I just thought I'm gonna loss him. Oh, he was fourth with
- 1:05:26twenty six dollars in value. Just to also give you just an overall kind
- 1:05:31of Aaron Judge heat check, he was number one of those lists of forty
- 1:05:36six ish dollars. So the last thirty days will also shade more towards pitchers.
- 1:05:42So forty six dollars out of a hitter is pretty absurd in the standings
- 1:05:45because it usually is somebody like in the twenties and thirties. Fourth right now
- 1:05:50twenty six point four dollars is Carlos Correa, who has been on a heater
- 1:05:55the past month as he has hit six homers with twenty five rbi, slashing
- 1:06:00three sixty one four hundred six point twenty, which has been really fantastic considering
- 1:06:08all the drafts that I was in this year, Carlos Carea was free because
- 1:06:13we denigrated his good name here on this podcast as well, because he just
- 1:06:17didn't provide speed and didn't provide enough in the bat to be able to make
- 1:06:23up for it. But if he's going to continue hitting like this, he
- 1:06:27turns into a Marcelo Xena at shortstop, which is exactly what you want out
- 1:06:30of Carlos Korea. I guess my question is to you, is this sustainable?
- 1:06:36Great question? And I just had somebody ask that this week over on
- 1:06:43ras Ball, and no, no, you don't think so, Okay,
- 1:06:45I don't think so. Like, but this was he Frank, this is
- 1:06:49not sustainable. Like the last six games. Yeah, the last six games
- 1:06:54he has a WRC plus of three hundred and fifty seven that I think he
- 1:06:59broke it, like he's seventeen four thirty h during that time, you know,
- 1:07:04he's hitting six oh seven, like with a babe up of six oh
- 1:07:08nine, Like, it's only one eighty one WRC plus over the past month,
- 1:07:13So that's a little bit more reasonable. But yes, yeah, so
- 1:07:15he's been hot as I'll get out. But when I say, it's not
- 1:07:18sustainable, like if you look under the covers, what he's doing right now,
- 1:07:24what he's looked like in twenty twenty four is one hundred times better than
- 1:07:28was last year. But this is the same relptively looks the same as he
- 1:07:32was in twenty twenty two. And that's the season where he hit two ninety
- 1:07:36one twenty two homers, seventy runs, sixty four RBIs, and didn't steal
- 1:07:42a base. He was decent, but he just he doesn't doesn't run.
- 1:07:49He had his power. Even though he hits the ball really hard, he
- 1:07:54doesn't put it in the air enough to really drive those homers. He actually
- 1:07:59has a pretty high round ball rate and then his a lot of line drives,
- 1:08:03which is great for a real world player. So the production that he's
- 1:08:09doing right now is he's just he's just playing out of his mind and it's
- 1:08:13it's gonna come back down and it's gonna settle into a useful player. But
- 1:08:19that's about where it's gonna land, because there there's nothing showing up in what
- 1:08:24he's doing right now that shows that he's like made some substantial change that he's
- 1:08:29doing anything besides being healthy and hitting the ball hard on the line. So
- 1:08:33I'd be looking to sell Korea hard right now because he is absolutely at the
- 1:08:39peak value. If if you can convince somebody that you know, he's he's
- 1:08:44over any injuries, he's you know, in a great space and he's gonna
- 1:08:48win your league, like you can turn him into something pretty good, and
- 1:08:51I would be jumping all over that right now. So don't get me wrong.
- 1:08:55If you bottom where you bought him for, you're absolutely thrilled. It's
- 1:08:58kind of hard to like a lot, but I think you do yourself a
- 1:09:02favor selling a guy that's got a six and nine babe up in the least
- 1:09:06six six games. Well yeah, I mean all sample sizes. Yeah.
- 1:09:11I actually I think I might be one of those buyers, just because when
- 1:09:14you do go to a savant page, it pops right away. You can
- 1:09:17see why that I think he is healthy, and I think that was the
- 1:09:24only thing really kind of holding him back in the initial preseason, along with
- 1:09:30obviously the lack of steals. But like he's battled back injuries and leg injuries
- 1:09:35and plant ore fascy Eydea is all things that kind of sap that natural power.
- 1:09:40And I think he's really found it over this past month because the barrel
- 1:09:45rate's gotten up to eleven percent, and sure he is hitting more ground balls,
- 1:09:48but he's been doing it and he's been doing it against weak competition,
- 1:09:54which I know I caveat it a little bit earlier, but the entire Ale
- 1:09:59Central weak competition, and so like this is exactly the type of Carlos Korea
- 1:10:03that can eat the White Sox and the Tigers like alive in terms of especially
- 1:10:12as the games increase down the stretch against some of these Ale Central teams that
- 1:10:17I mean even Kansas City and I mean Cleveland's pretty solid up and down,
- 1:10:23but you will find soft spots in that rotation from time to time. Kansas
- 1:10:27City does not have a great bullpen overall, and so I think that's a
- 1:10:30lot of what Korea is doing here is just kind of marrying up that health
- 1:10:35with his natural skill to be able to take advantage of what he's got.
- 1:10:39I mean, I'm certainly not like out there trading significant pieces for Carlos Karia,
- 1:10:44but I do think that like he's got the capability in that bat to
- 1:10:49be something like a top ten or twelve shortstop maybe rest the way, because
- 1:10:54just of the power production overall good lineup in Minnesota, that it's going to
- 1:11:00be hard to sell him if you certainly picked him up for cheap. But
- 1:11:03I think this is the type of player where, especially when we think back
- 1:11:06to you know, if you're trying to replace somebody like a Mookie Bets or
- 1:11:12somebody that really was offering substantial production for you, you've got to try to
- 1:11:17find it somewhere, and you might have to pay a little bit more than
- 1:11:20you're expecting for Carlo's carry out. But I don't think you're ever going to
- 1:11:24have to pay like top ten or twelve shortstop prices for him. That you
- 1:11:28would have to think whoever's out there selling him and has him as an extraneous
- 1:11:32piece would take down take back some sort of discount based on even what his
- 1:11:36current stats are. Yeah, we'll see. I think it's one of those
- 1:11:42interesting ones that I think you hit on the very in there. It depends
- 1:11:46how your league views him. Like if if your league is fully rational has
- 1:11:54dug under the covers and sees him like you just said, is that,
- 1:11:57you know, a ten twelve type short stuff up. I'm perfectly fine with
- 1:12:00that because I think that's who he probably is. If the league sees him
- 1:12:03as like a top five because he's hot, this heater and they're willing to
- 1:12:08pay for it, come on, give me that money. I'm taking it
- 1:12:11all the nice. Okay, Well, the next player is one that I'm
- 1:12:15actually kind of proud of because this was my breakout pick when we did the
- 1:12:18n AL West, when we were just kind of like, this is a
- 1:12:23tough team to find somebody to break out from because the San Francisco Giants love
- 1:12:28just mixing and matching and using weird dudes like Nick Ahmed whenever they can.
- 1:12:32But Elliott Ramos has absolutely arrived for the San Francisco Giants. In the last
- 1:12:40thirty days, he has been twelve on our player Raider twenty three dollars in
- 1:12:45value with nine homers, slashing three, twenty seven, four, twelve,
- 1:12:48six, twenty five And yes I will admit that this is another babbit fueled
- 1:12:56like hot streak as it's I have it for the month, but his total
- 1:13:00for the year is at four fourteen. But this is another guy who absolutely
- 1:13:04just hits the snot out of the ball and it shows up immediately on a
- 1:13:09savant page. He's actually got a seventeen percent barrel rate on the year right
- 1:13:14now, it's sixteen percent. On his career like fifteen point eight percent.
- 1:13:17He's posted hard hit rates above fifty percent. And this is exactly like the
- 1:13:24form of Elliott Ramos that I thought could be in there. I just I
- 1:13:30didn't actually pick up any shares of him outside of the Rasball Commentary League,
- 1:13:34because I mean, it was just such a shot in the dark. But
- 1:13:39he has cut his k rate a little bit, just enough to be able
- 1:13:43to let that ball just get smoked when he actually hits it. And so
- 1:13:49he is only twenty four, which is surprising considering just how long Elliott Ramos
- 1:13:57has been a prospect for us. But I think this is another guy that
- 1:14:02I'm out there buying. I think it's gonna be tougher because he is a
- 1:14:04twenty four year old, but the production has been there and he's showing with
- 1:14:11his bat what the peak is, and I think he will eventually settle into
- 1:14:15something that's a little bit more akin to like his bat X number, which
- 1:14:19he's already significantly increased, like all these numbers. At the beginning of the
- 1:14:25year had him like just above the Mendoza line for batting, I think,
- 1:14:29And now he's firmly in like the two forty two fifty range and has converted
- 1:14:33himself about into like what we wanted out of Porgeshilaire, I think. And
- 1:14:42so I think, with that kind of in mind, what are you doing
- 1:14:45with Ramos? I know this is another babbit monster, but I think there's
- 1:14:49a lot that has changed in his profile overall that I'm hoping you can get
- 1:14:54on board with too. Yeah. So I'm generally on board with Ramos well,
- 1:15:00mostly because his name's Elliott, not Elliott as everybody wants to try to
- 1:15:03pronounce it. And to your point, he hits the ball incredibly hard and
- 1:15:10it looks like legit like it looks like he knows what he's doing with it.
- 1:15:15The two pieces of cold water I'm gonna throw on it. And it's
- 1:15:17not that I don't like him. I own him. Somewhere, and I'm
- 1:15:20taking advantage of it, and I think he's going to continue to do that.
- 1:15:23It is, you know, he he does have some baby block,
- 1:15:28but he also is not a fly ball hitter, and he's playing in San
- 1:15:32Francisco and he's hitting the home runs for fly balls one on of three basically
- 1:15:41thirty two percent of the time. The league leaders for qualified guys doing right
- 1:15:46now. Number one is Gunner Henderson at thirty one percent. Two is Air
- 1:15:51Judge at twenty nine percent, Then Shohe at twenty seven, Jan Soda,
- 1:15:58Marcelo Zuna at t twenty five, and you get to Stanton Schwarber twenty four
- 1:16:01to twenty. He is hitting. He is getting very lucky from a home
- 1:16:06run perspective, and so I think you have to expect that those numbers are
- 1:16:11going to come down and he's not going to have the same power numbers that
- 1:16:16that he does right now. If you can expect that, then you're you're
- 1:16:24probably in the right mind space. The other piece that I look at is
- 1:16:28if you can look at his bad ball profile and again spot I love how
- 1:16:30they compare him to guys like the guys that they compare him to. I'm
- 1:16:34like, yep, that's exactly who Ramos is. And this scares me just
- 1:16:39as much as it hypes me up. It is Taoscar. Her name is
- 1:16:43Colton Kowser, O'Neill, Kruz, JD. Martinez, Gian Carlo Stanton.
- 1:16:47Can you think of more guys that have like power but like cold streaks,
- 1:16:53tons of tools, but scary you to death? Like that is exactly what
- 1:16:57Ramos is and so he he's gonna be fantastic sometimes he's not others again to
- 1:17:02my planet earlier, I'm thrilled that he's on the West coast when he's on
- 1:17:05my teams because he just set them and ride with it and then you'll be
- 1:17:09happy at the end of the day. Yeah, I mean, I think,
- 1:17:13but those are some pretty big bats considering Ramos has been free and I
- 1:17:15think that, like, but that's exactly I don't think he's maybe like as
- 1:17:20good as Taoscar, but certainly, like you think about like Jad Martinez and
- 1:17:26Stanton, like what's kind of going for them as I get old as some
- 1:17:29of what we talked about with the bray new and the quick twitch and the
- 1:17:32hand eye coordination speed and so I mean Ramos is twenty four, Like this
- 1:17:36is right when it should work. I don't think it's gonna last for a
- 1:17:43significant amount of time, but I think, especially if you're looking at him
- 1:17:45in a keeper dynasty window, you've probably got a good three or four years
- 1:17:49where he can keep some semblance of what that bad X projection was, you
- 1:17:56know in the two forty two fifties, something it would project out to like
- 1:18:00a twenty five to thirty homers with like eighty to ninety RBIs, which is
- 1:18:05I mean, like I said, it's right where ta Oscar Hanandez has kind
- 1:18:09of been traditionally. And so when you consider the draft cost, and again,
- 1:18:14like I think the babeb here has been pretty lucky when you look at
- 1:18:20it on the surface. Same thing with that fly ball rate, where it's
- 1:18:24one out of every three is a homer. But the dupe has put up
- 1:18:28a twenty percent barrel rate for a month too, So like when you put
- 1:18:30up a twenty cent barrel rate, you're gonna be getting some quote unquote like
- 1:18:35luck in that home run to fly ball rate because there's just going to be
- 1:18:40so many of those balls that are fly balls that deserve to go out.
- 1:18:44And so I think that's what I would keep in mind if I'm going out
- 1:18:48there buying. But I think he is a player where because of the strikeout
- 1:18:55rate and because you see that babbeb over four on his fangrass page that it
- 1:19:00could worry his current owners. And I think you can find some price in
- 1:19:05terms of trading for him that would be below what his production value is,
- 1:19:10but isn't going to actually like you know, be sky high for what he's
- 1:19:15at right now. So certainly, yeah, I'm out there and trying to
- 1:19:19like poke around and see where Ramos owners are at his skill level in my
- 1:19:26leagues, nothing wrong with it. Just know what you're getting into the roller
- 1:19:30coaster rye and a lot of power. Okay. Next guy we have is
- 1:19:33shortstop David Hamilton from the Boston Red Sox, who has put up twenty one
- 1:19:39point nine dollars of value slashing three fourteen, three fifty nine, four seventy
- 1:19:45seven with a surprising three homers that uh, he's popping out these little homers
- 1:19:50out of venway, which is part of it, and I think is obviously
- 1:19:55always going to be a part of his value, which is great. But
- 1:19:58the drive, main driver here is the stolen basis as he's swiped fourteen bags
- 1:20:03over the last month, has really taken claim to that shortstop job in Boston.
- 1:20:11I think this is a guy who certainly, if you've picked him up
- 1:20:14and you have him, it's going to be really hard to get rid of
- 1:20:17him. And I guess if you are out there owning him, what types
- 1:20:21of offers are you entertaining for him? Because the speed asset here is really
- 1:20:28significant considering you're looking at a player who has a decent played approach and a
- 1:20:34decent batting average I think floor because of the speed and the park that he
- 1:20:40plays in that it's I think could be a little bit more valuable than what
- 1:20:44we looked at with like a Billy Hamilton in the past. Yeah, I
- 1:20:47think it's it's gonna be interesting with him because he does have the speed that
- 1:20:53is just not what he's sold four bases in the game but two days ago.
- 1:20:58Yeah, well, I guess that's one thing. But you know,
- 1:21:01to your point, he's got a decent floor, looks like he's got the
- 1:21:05role, And that was my concern was like when you came back, like,
- 1:21:09uh was was he still going to have a role? Looks like yeah,
- 1:21:12absolutely, Like they're they're not gonna be moving anybody around trying to take
- 1:21:15his role. So I think that's gonna be the interesting piece to to to
- 1:21:20see of how much that speed sticks around and does he get on base enough
- 1:21:26to use it. So I think that really you're looking are you in a
- 1:21:30rotal league and does he fit your your team if you don't need steals,
- 1:21:33you're looking for the team that needs steals and you can capitalize on it you
- 1:21:35need steals. You're holding on to him like he is one of those kind
- 1:21:39of one trick ponies at the end of the day that really could be important
- 1:21:43to your team might be a guy that you also need to ship off if
- 1:21:47you also are running out with like an l de la Cruz and a few
- 1:21:49other guys that have some pretty pretty good speed. Yeah, And I mean,
- 1:21:55what do you think is maybe left in the tank speed wise that most
- 1:21:59of the rejections have him like eighteen to twenty stolen bases overall. But do
- 1:22:04you think that there is even upside to that? Yeah? I think there
- 1:22:10is. I think he's shown it and the Red Sacs are willing to let
- 1:22:12him run. I'm not seeing he's a sixty stolen based type of guy.
- 1:22:15But over a full season, if he does get the full playing time,
- 1:22:18forty stolen bases doesn't seem out of reason. I mean, he's done twenty
- 1:22:23and fifty games. I think teams will get smart and are giving a little
- 1:22:28more focus and so that will cut down the opportunities. And I think he's
- 1:22:30you know, he's got, he's got had some luck in getting on and
- 1:22:33what he's done in the role because injuries have led him to that playing time.
- 1:22:39So yeah, over full season, I would be shocked at forty forty
- 1:22:43five stolen bases for him. Yeah. So, I mean I think this
- 1:22:45is compared to Correa and Ramos, he's also going to be the trickiest to
- 1:22:51trade for because of that that whoever is looking at Hamilton and the stolen based
- 1:23:00total and sees where he's ranked over the past month is going to be into
- 1:23:04all the things that we're into. So I think compared to Ramos and career,
- 1:23:09he's gonna be just a little bit harder to negotiate a trade for because
- 1:23:14you need somebody that isn't looking for the stolen bases and has just a little
- 1:23:18bit of a wiggle room on Hamilton there, Yeah, absolutely. I think
- 1:23:24you're right. He's gonna be. He's gonna be. He's gonna cost you
- 1:23:27a pretty penny because he means something to somebody exactly. All right, Well,
- 1:23:31now let's switch it over to the pitching side, and the first two
- 1:23:35guys that we're going to discuss, actually I think are kind of in the
- 1:23:39same boat where I've been really starting to get into these pitchers who throw multiple
- 1:23:45fastballs, and so part of it is the just ability to be able to
- 1:23:49control the zone and the count. And it goes back to recent Justin Troy
- 1:23:54piece on fangrafts that I'll link in the show details. It just explains how
- 1:23:59lots of guys getting by even though like some of their stuff might not look
- 1:24:03good and some of the savant pages might not look good because when you're mixing
- 1:24:09like a cutter, a forcing fastball, a two seamer, and like a
- 1:24:13sinker and just kind of all tunneling them, well, it's really hard for
- 1:24:17batters to pick up what's what, and especially if you can dot those into
- 1:24:23the zone, then that gives the picture a great advantage. The other great
- 1:24:26advantage for us from the fantasy side is that these pictures because the savant pages
- 1:24:30don't look great. The stuff page, the stuff plus pages maybe look a
- 1:24:34little muted. The overall package of how they pitch makes the projections not think
- 1:24:43that they're going to keep up the type of pace that they're on, and
- 1:24:45so that just creates and just buying arbitrage opportunity in our fantasy game, because
- 1:24:51anyone who is using those projections to evaluate those players, I think will underestimate
- 1:24:59what true talent is. And so the first one that we have in this
- 1:25:01category is somebody who I've used a lot in my waiver wire piece and it's
- 1:25:09just surprising checking in on him every week and seeing him steadily climb and produce.
- 1:25:14That is Jake Irvin from the Washington Nationals, who over the last thirty
- 1:25:18days has been worth thirteen point six dollars, and that is because of a
- 1:25:24two two nine e RA with a one one three whip over thirty five and
- 1:25:29a third innings only comes with three wins because it is the Washington Nationals.
- 1:25:33But with Jake Urban's overall profile, what I also like is that not only
- 1:25:38does he have those multiple fast balls like I just discussed, but he's got
- 1:25:42a really, really nasty slider that he rates as a one forty four on
- 1:25:46the stuff plus scale from Enosarus, and he's just put together a lot of
- 1:25:53really great things for me. I don't think that honestly, he's probably on
- 1:25:56a lot of waiver wire still sitting in those free agent pools. And even
- 1:26:00if you want to go out and acquire him, I think Jake Irvin is
- 1:26:03going to be really really cheap because whoever owns him thinks that they've already banked
- 1:26:11all the great work from him and see that the projections have him slated for
- 1:26:16something like a mid foes era the rest of the way. But I just
- 1:26:19don't see it that. Like, I think Jake Irvin is going to be
- 1:26:23somewhere more like a mid threes guy because it's all working for him. His
- 1:26:28Savant page says that it's a similar package to Seth Lugo, and I think
- 1:26:30that's a great kind of person to point to as our north star here.
- 1:26:36Yeah, I think that for what you pay for him, Jake Irvin is
- 1:26:41very interesting because I don't want to say it, but I feel like steady
- 1:26:45Eddie kind of guy, Like he just is very consistent. He doesn't really
- 1:26:50walk a ton of guys. He doesn't really strike out a ton of guys.
- 1:26:56You know, he doesn't really give up that many homers. He doesn't
- 1:27:00really put the ball in the air. Like he's just a slightly above average
- 1:27:02in each of those things, which is good. And I think he's just
- 1:27:06being hidden on the Nationals to a degree. And it don't get me wrong,
- 1:27:09I'm not saying he's a top twenty, top thirty, or top forty
- 1:27:11pitcher by any means, Like he is the definition of you lost your rotation
- 1:27:15to injuries and you need to get a guy in for innings because, especially
- 1:27:18if you're in an innans cap league, he's actually not ideal because the strikeouts
- 1:27:23aren't that attractive. But if you are running out of innings, it's better
- 1:27:27to have the guy than I have anybody. And so I think Irvan's one
- 1:27:30of those guys that I don't think is going to get blown up, Like
- 1:27:34I don't think he throws pretty goshdarn hard to your point, like with that
- 1:27:39fastball. You know, he's a ninety four ninety five guy, and you
- 1:27:44know, he he does seem to, you know, change it up a
- 1:27:47little bit, you know, with with having a you know, good I
- 1:27:53think sinker kind of pitch. Yeah, sinker cutter like he he's just kind
- 1:28:00of dabbling across multiple different pitches. And so yeah, Urban is an interesting
- 1:28:08one. Don't expect a lot of wins or things like that, but hey,
- 1:28:11if you're if you're shopping at this point, well for starting pitchers,
- 1:28:15there's a lot worse choices than Jake Urban. Yeah, I do agree,
- 1:28:18And I mean you brought up a great point with the low walk rates and
- 1:28:23home run rates. That that's also you'll see it like it pops out immediately
- 1:28:26on the Fangrass page. He has a just under a two per nine walk
- 1:28:30rate, but the projections all have him slated for something like a three home
- 1:28:34run rate. He's got a point eighty four when all the projections have him
- 1:28:39more like in the mid one twos ish. So that's where exactly like what
- 1:28:44I'm talking about in terms of like, I don't he's just changed from what
- 1:28:48the projections have picked up. And it's gonna be you've rug out a little
- 1:28:53bit of a runway before I think it all gets integrated. Yeah, and
- 1:28:56I won't even say he'd changed like from twenty nine team through twenty twenty two.
- 1:29:00He never really walked more than two and a half guys per any or
- 1:29:04sorry, per nine for any that'd be pretty rough. And so like,
- 1:29:08yeah, he lost some time with injury there, but then he got to
- 1:29:13triple A in the majors last year and he was he he had a little
- 1:29:15control issues as he was trying to figure things out. I'm not surprised by
- 1:29:18that. So like, he just feels like he's getting back to who he
- 1:29:21is. So I'm taking it exactly, Okay. The next guy who I
- 1:29:27think falls into this bucket of the multiple fastballs and is just using them to
- 1:29:31their maximum ability right now is Tobias Myers from the Milwaukee Brewers, who has
- 1:29:39been worth twenty one point six dollars over the past thirty days on our Player
- 1:29:43Raider. That is thanks to a two ten Era and a point ninety seven
- 1:29:47whip. The babbitb Pier is certainly driving a lot more of the luck as
- 1:29:51a two thirty eight Babbitt. But the nice thing with Myers is he pitches
- 1:29:57for the Milwaukee Brewers and that means more wins. He should stick in the
- 1:30:00rotation for Milwaukee because Robert Gasser is going to be out for a significant time
- 1:30:08here and that is going to keep that door open, I think for Myers,
- 1:30:11and he's just been pitching well enough, as I stated there, with
- 1:30:15that past thirty days to be able to be valuable. I think he's even
- 1:30:19though the value of the past thirty days has been higher than Irvin, I
- 1:30:24think he's not as good as Irvin, and you can see it right in
- 1:30:28kind of like the FIP where it's a four to sixty six right now,
- 1:30:30but that also includes a little bit of just really not as great work in
- 1:30:35the earlier in the season. As you know, I think he's really refined
- 1:30:40his arsenal more and more over this past month to be able to emphasize all
- 1:30:44those different fastballs and offerings. And just like Irvin, his overall like fastballs
- 1:30:50and cutters and sinkers all rate below average on the stuff plus scale, but
- 1:30:58I think they all play up because when they come out of the same tunnel,
- 1:31:00you don't know which way they're going. And the other reason I have
- 1:31:04him ranged a little bit below Irvin is his walk rate has been a little
- 1:31:10bit more elevated than urban throughout the minor leagues, and even in this season.
- 1:31:14He also has a lower ground ball rate, so I mean, if
- 1:31:16you're in a league where Ervin is missing and maybe the owner of Jake Iervin
- 1:31:24also listens to this podcast or reads my pieces and is bought into the Jake
- 1:31:28Irbin experience. I think Myers is a worthy reconciliation prize. Yeah, I'm
- 1:31:35I think you're right on there. I'm I'm probably a little further down on
- 1:31:40Myers. I think there's potential there, but I'm more spot starting. Maybe
- 1:31:45with Tobias Myers, like the luck metrics are like you'd not Bryce Elder of
- 1:31:51like last year where it's just like the train's coming and you just get off
- 1:31:56the tracks, right. I think with Tobias he's not been as good as
- 1:32:00what like Elder was, but he's also got like I feel like every luck
- 1:32:03metric you look like he's on the wrong side of it, right, his
- 1:32:06babeit has been low, his left on basement high, his home runs for
- 1:32:10fly balls been lucky. Like, it just seems like he's gotten a lot
- 1:32:15of luck across a lot of areas. And I'm not I wouldn't be surprised
- 1:32:18to see a guy with a four and a half era coming out of it.
- 1:32:21So he's a guy that I'd consider if I see a few good starts
- 1:32:26or maybe a good two start week, but I'm probably shining a little bit
- 1:32:30away if I'm having to go that deep because I don't trust myself to not
- 1:32:33play guys when I have him on my team. Yeah, I mean for
- 1:32:36some personal issues. Yeah, and even with that two thirty eight babbitit is
- 1:32:42pretty low. But the Brewers do have a good defense. They're actually fifth
- 1:32:46in the league in BABEB. It's a two seventy seven BABEP that they have
- 1:32:50as a pitching staff, which makes sense. A Dominis and terrang are solid
- 1:32:55up the middle, and obviously you have Jackson Curio out in center field.
- 1:32:59So that's consideration here as well, is that you're starting to be able to
- 1:33:03see which teams have the elite defenses, and I think Milwaukee is in that
- 1:33:09boat, which is part of the reason that they've been playing so well.
- 1:33:14Okay the disagree. Yeah. The next guy that we have actually slots in
- 1:33:17right behind Myers on our last thirty days. That is Hunter Brown from the
- 1:33:23Houston Astros, who's been worth also twenty one point six dollars, but it's
- 1:33:26come with a three era of point eighty four whip thirty five strikeouts to eight
- 1:33:33walks in thirty one innings. He's accumulated two wins in that time. He
- 1:33:39just picked up a win as we've been talking tonight against the White Sox.
- 1:33:44This dude has been on an absolute tearor and honestly like pitching like a top
- 1:33:49twenty pitcher since maybe like mid to early May. After he had those few
- 1:33:57hiccups early in the season, he's been really the lights out and I think
- 1:34:01he's turned into There was a lot of hype I think around Hunter Brown last
- 1:34:05year because last year, honestly like the season had a bit of like the
- 1:34:11opposite shape to it, where he started really strong then faded down the stretch.
- 1:34:16I think as he just got worn down by the Major League Baseball schedule.
- 1:34:21This year, it seems like the skills, I don't know, like
- 1:34:27what he struggled with in April. Maybe there was a tipping situation, or
- 1:34:30maybe that just like some sort of new regime change gave him different suggestions.
- 1:34:36But Hunter Brown has been absolutely electric as a starting pitcher. And I mean
- 1:34:42I think this is maybe after the win with the White Sox night, maybe
- 1:34:46people will be starting to wake up to this. But you've got to get
- 1:34:50in and try to acquire Hunter Brown. I think especially in leagues where you
- 1:34:55have Los Yamamoto or are falling behind and pitching, because this guy looks like
- 1:35:00he could be, like I said, like a top twenty, top fifteen
- 1:35:02pitcher. Rest away the way he has been for the past month. Yeah,
- 1:35:06he's been fantastic since the start of May. I mean he's not counting.
- 1:35:11Today's area is about two and a half. If any problem is he's
- 1:35:15he struggled with a long ball a little bit during that time period, and
- 1:35:17in the last three starts he's only getting up one run, including tonight,
- 1:35:20and that was a home run. But he's he's striking out ten eleven guys
- 1:35:25for for nine. He's keeping the walks in check, like and he says
- 1:35:29nasty stuff, and he also what would interest me? And he and this
- 1:35:33is not the guy that you can just go up. There's some leagues you
- 1:35:36know he's mid eighties percent owned, like he's he's still out there in a
- 1:35:40few shallower leagues. But you know, the hope here is he's a guy
- 1:35:44that you can potentially go tell alone or hey, he's been lucky because he's
- 1:35:47been a little lucky even on with his hot streak, but hey, you
- 1:35:53saw how bad he was the beginning of the season. Like you could probably
- 1:35:55still get him for a little discount because his era is still you know,
- 1:35:59like I fors I mean mid fours after tonight, and so on the surface,
- 1:36:03the overall metrics don't look that great. But he made a pitching a
- 1:36:09pitch mix change kind of you know, mid May, and it really came
- 1:36:15down to using his two seamer a little bit more and he went back to
- 1:36:23a cutter that he had used previously, and so he kind of brought those
- 1:36:26pitches back and he's attacking the top of the zone with them, which he
- 1:36:30really hadn't been in there earlier in the season. So it seems like he's
- 1:36:36using pitches a little different. He's attacking right he's and lefties a little different
- 1:36:42he had and it's just paying dividends. And so literally it was a shift
- 1:36:46in approach. That's when I see a guy with a shift and approach,
- 1:36:49and all of a sudden, the results file follow. I am much more
- 1:36:53intrigued than a guy that doesn't seem to have done that. So I am
- 1:36:57all in on Hunter Brown. I was before the season and I regret not
- 1:37:00sticking to my guns and acquiring him in more spots because I actually I own
- 1:37:05him multiple spots. I actually cut him one and gone right back because of
- 1:37:10that. But I love Hunter Brown. I'm so excited about him going forward,
- 1:37:14and I think there's still a little buying window left on him, but
- 1:37:16it is closing very, very fast. And that's a good point on the
- 1:37:20mixed pitch change because it actually moves him further, like closer in to the
- 1:37:25bucket that I was talking about of like the multiple fastballs, because he's throwing
- 1:37:29the four seam, the sinker, and the cutter all together, and it's
- 1:37:32the same sort of thing, like, yeah, if you can locate that
- 1:37:35each of those pitches in the zone, once you're starting to throw those on
- 1:37:39the edges, batteries don't know which way that fastball is moving and at that
- 1:37:43point they're guessing, and even if they're making contact with it, if it's
- 1:37:48a sinker instead of a cutter that they were expecting, it's landing on a
- 1:37:51different spot of the barrel. And yeah, that's fantastic for Hunter Brown,
- 1:37:57and compared to the other guys, he's working with much more velocity. Just
- 1:38:01also a nasty, nasty curveball compared to the other guys are relying a little
- 1:38:06bit more on sliders. So yeah, I think that this might be one
- 1:38:12of the last times that you get to buy Hunter Brown because the era is
- 1:38:15at four seventy two then on that surface level, and so if you are
- 1:38:20in a league where that Hunter Brown owner isn't digging into those last thirty day
- 1:38:25stats, I think you can find a pretty serious discount because I mean,
- 1:38:30yeah, where do you put him maybe in your top ish pictures that I
- 1:38:34was talking about, Like, is twenty to fifteen too high right now?
- 1:38:39Yeah, I think that. You know, I'm a little hesitant there,
- 1:38:44but there's been enough injuries that I think he might be sneaking into that,
- 1:38:46into that like it's part of it. I look at him like as probably
- 1:38:49a top twenty five thirty guy on an overall basis, but we've had enough
- 1:38:54injuries in that top tier that I think he is actually sneaking into the back
- 1:38:58of the top twenty just based on skills alone and now seeing a pitch mixed
- 1:39:02change paying off, I'm I'm willing to take the gamble of them on a
- 1:39:09top twenty and call that for the rest of the season with Hunter Brown.
- 1:39:12Okay, yeah, because then I mean, let me see, I mean,
- 1:39:19yeah, I think that it can be in there, just because,
- 1:39:23like I think he's been looking better than Pablo Lopez for sure. He's Yamamoto's
- 1:39:28falling out of there, and you're gonna be I think that's gonna push him
- 1:39:33kind of into like Logan Webish, you know. So Logan web on Marmo's
- 1:39:40dad's rankings is twenty six, and so yeah, I think wherever you've got
- 1:39:44like Flarity ranked, I would be putting Hunter Brown, like maybe right next
- 1:39:48to Flarity. It's kind of like the same sort of profile. It's just
- 1:39:51that like it hasn't shown up I think quite on everybody's radars because that era,
- 1:39:56like it we said, is four seventy two, very unsightly. Yeah,
- 1:40:00this is the kind of guy that if you did this in the opposite
- 1:40:02you'd be like, oh, okay, just a bad few starts and let
- 1:40:05them get back on the hill. Okay, Well, I think that's gonna
- 1:40:12wrap us up for this week. So, like I said at the beginning
- 1:40:15of the segment, I will keep the links for those last thirty Day Player
- 1:40:18raiders in the show notes, so check them out there, check out any
- 1:40:23of the other tools at rasball that come with a subscription. I make use
- 1:40:27of them just about every day and certainly every week as I'm writing my waiver
- 1:40:31Wire piece. Brew let everybody know where they can find you on socials and
- 1:40:36read your pieces. Yep, find me over on Twitter slash exit Jaybrewer one
- 1:40:41seven. Find me on the weekends on Sunday's Top one hundred hitters for the
- 1:40:45rest of the season and the hitter profiles come debate and tell me where we're
- 1:40:49wrong. Coolly, how about you? Yeah, you can find me doing
- 1:40:54that waiver Wire article on Saturday on ras ball and obviously on this podcast every
- 1:41:00week. If you want to support the podcast, make sure you rate,
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- 1:41:09podcast to help us out. We also have merchandise for sale. That link
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- 1:41:16to reach me on Twitter, slash blue Sky slash x blue Sky has been
- 1:41:23pretty slow recently, so I mean, if you want to hang out there,
- 1:41:27I could use more buddies, that's for sure, but it's at mcool
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- 1:41:41We will be back again, same time, same place, next week.
- 1:41:45Thanks again everybody for sticking around and listening to our show. Take care,
- 1:42:05hello, and welcome everybody to episode forty nine of episode We can trash
- 1:42:13that we are not seasoned professionals. No, yeah, whoops, a right,