Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 130 - 9/30/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 130 - 9/30/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 130 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Monday, the final day of September before we turn the
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page to October. Halloween, of course, right
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around the corner. One of my favorite times of the
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year, I must say. If you're in New Englander like
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me, the leaves are changing. It's getting a little bit
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cooler. We're in the full swing of
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football here. Before you know it, we got NBA
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coming back. Obviously, you have the NHL
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right around the corner, college basketball.
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So we got a lot going on and buried the lead.
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How about some postseason baseball on the docket shortly
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here, But really it's all football guys and looking back
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toward the weekend. Hope everyone had a great week
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and I first want to thank everyone for tuning in to the
1:10
Rhythm Sunday sweats. If you don't know, every Sunday
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from 11:00 AM Eastern Time to noon, myself and James Santor
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who represents rhythm, we do the live stream on Twitter on X,
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whatever you want to call it. But we had over 2000 people
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watching the live stream yesterday.
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It's gotten bigger each week and it's really we have a lot of
1:28
fun. We go over all the rhythm edges.
1:30
We talked about a bunch of different games, you take
1:32
questions, we look at the top player props.
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So really, really proud and excited to see this rhythm
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Sunday sweat show really start to grow and it's all a testament
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to you guys for tuning in. So if you if you've been
1:42
watching, thank you. And if you're interested,
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remember 11:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday, whether you're
1:47
hungover or you party too hard on Saturday or hanging out, you
1:51
know, catching up on a nice Sunday morning, tune into the
1:54
the rhythm Sunday sweats and you can catch all the data-driven
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breakdowns for myself and James Santor.
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So looking back toward the weekend, guys, not a bad weekend
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overall. The number one sweat for me.
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Oh my God, did it take 20 years off my life, Alabama baby Roll
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Tide, unbelievable. But they got out to a huge lead.
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I felt OK, we're pretty good here.
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Then they pretty much blow it after they're up by like 30
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points. And then right after they cough
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up the lead. And I was going to say, oh, one
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of the most agonizing defeats I've ever witnessed.
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They come right back in the 17 year old wide receiver scores
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late, they have an interception and the game.
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Bama gets it done for the team. But why is that?
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Why was that so important? Because that was a contrarian
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opportunity. Only around 40% of bets on Bama,
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the most heavily bet game of the weekend.
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And that line kept falling back down toward Bama.
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And I remember Rhythm had a 0.5 spread.
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So they had basically Bama plus 1/2 point when you were getting,
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you know, 2 1/2 to 1 1/2 across the market.
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So great hit with Bama. The one that was a Backbreaker
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though was Auburn. Peyton Thorne.
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This guy who turned it over a million times the previous game
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actually played really well until he threw a pick 6 to kill
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us at the end. So that was a brutal 1 because
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that was a faith the trendy dog opportunity.
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Baylor came up short. Arkansas was a play where if you
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had a bad 4, you pushed. If you got anything higher than
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that, you won. Unfortunately, UFC, our guy Okie
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couldn't come through for the team.
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He was actually leading early. It was noon when it started to
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to take place and he was putting up out a bunch of offense and he
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got choked out and put to sleep so I couldn't get a UFC winner
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there after winning twelve straight now two in a row we've
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lost UFC but a great good good day here in the NFL on Sunday
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three and two Washington commanders absolutely rolling
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getting the points with a sharp line move 5050 bet split the
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Atlanta Falcons. That's why your money line short
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favorites baby Falcons ended up a winning by what was it a walk
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off 2 because of a a game-winning field goal kick.
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But if you had laid A2, 2 1/2 you push or lose your money
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line, you won. So it's nice to see the money
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line play come through there with the Falcons and then late
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night Baltimore Ravens. That was an interesting game
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because it was a epic fade. The trendy dog play.
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Everyone was playing Buffalo taking the points.
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Yet we saw that line move toward Baltimore.
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They absolutely roll any contrarian opportunity.
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Panthers came up short and the Packers we're frustrating
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because they got down like 28, nothing early, and they made it
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a game and it only ended up losing by like one or two
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points. Let me dial up that square.
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Was it? Yeah, 3129.
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So they almost came back. But either way, three and two
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with our NFL plays on Sunday. Let's see if we can keep it
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rolling into today. So what do I have on tap for
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you? Well, it's all NFL and wouldn't
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you know, we got a double header here tonight from Monday Night
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Football, 7:30 PM Eastern Time Tennessee, Miami, 8:15 PM
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Eastern Time, Seattle and Detroit.
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So I have a four pack of sweats. I got sides on both games and I
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got player props on both games. So we can try to get three out
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of four and eek out a winning night.
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So without further ado, let's start off with the the game that
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probably you're not that interested in sweating, but I
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think you should be Tennessee Miami 7:30 Eastern Time tonight.
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Titans come in O and 3:00 just got rolled by the Packers 30 to
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14 lost out right as a three-point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, the fins one and two just fell to the Seahawks 24 to
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3 failed to cover as a four and a half point Rd. dog.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, this game opened Miami around A2 point home favorite
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and early in the week the sign got down to a pick em.
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So it's like OK, Lions going to Tennessee, right?
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Well, that was true at the time. But big reason for that was we
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didn't know who the quarterback would be for Miami.
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Skylar Thompson came in for the injured to attack of Aloha.
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Thompson got hurt. Miami ended up signing Tyler
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Huntley. If you remember him, I want to
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say he played for Utah in college football, but he had a
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cup of coffee and played a few games with the Ravens mobile
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quarterback. So they went to Tyler Huntley.
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He's going to be the starter here tonight for Miami.
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And as soon as it was announced that that Tyler Huntley is going
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to be the signal caller, you got a lot of sharp buyback on Miami.
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So again, Miami open -2 got down to a Peckham.
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Now Miami's back up to -2 1/2. And a lot of shops are juicing
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up the Miami side -2 1/2 -, 115 - 120.
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Like it may even go to three. So what does that tell us?
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It tells us that all this late movement is breaking toward
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Miami. Now, why is that notable?
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Not just because I love late movement.
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Late movement is really important because that's when
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the biggest bets come in. The limits are raised, the most
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amount of information is available, and the biggest bets
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with pros trying to maximize their edge get put down.
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But it's not just late movement. It's at this is a 5050 ticket
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split. So on the one hand, you know we
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don't have a contrarian opportunity.
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Tennessee, Miami, Publix down the middle, they see both teams
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that have losing records that haven't played very well.
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Public doesn't really know what to do.
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Should we play Miami even though they look terrible ever since 2
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got hurt? Or should we go Tennessee as a
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dog even though they've been bad and Will Levis keeps turning it
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over? So 5050 right down the middle.
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What do I always tell you guys because this was taught to me
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many years ago, but when you see a 5050 ticket count,
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theoretically in a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all.
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Because you got to think if the oddsmakers have 100 bets on team
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A and 100 bets on team B, you know theoretically the the
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action is balanced. No need to adjust the price.
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Here's the thing, though, When you see a 5050 ticket count,
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even though you don't have contrarian value, look for a
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line move. If it's 5050 and the line hasn't
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moved, probably it's a perfect number.
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The odds maker set balance action.
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They're going to stick with that original number.
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But 5050 tickets split and yet you see a line move.
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I go with that line movement because again, in a vacuum, line
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shouldn't move at all. So the fact that it's 5050, yet
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all this late money is breaking toward Miami, guys, that tells
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me Miami is a sharp bet here. So I'm going to go on on Miami.
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Now, Miami's getting 49% of spread bets, 65% of spread
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dollars. So even though they're getting
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half the tickets, they're getting nearly 2/3 of money.
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Further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers going Miami.
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But here's the thing. This reminds me a little bit of
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that Falcons game yesterday where again, they had to walk it
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off with a field goal to win it. But again, if you looked at the
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Atlanta Falcons, they closed, you know, 2 1/2 at a lot of
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shops. So if you laid 2 1/2, you lost,
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you went money line, you win. So what am I doing here?
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I'm not going to lay a 2 1/2, maybe even gets the three here
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and have Miami win by one or two.
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Odds makers are already telling you expected to be a tight
8:14
spread here, tight game. I would hate to see Miami win by
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one or two and people lose a -, 2 1/2.
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So I go money line here. I money line short favorites.
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Yes, you're going to pay a little more juice, but you're
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going to protect yourself knowing that, hey, all we got to
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do is win the game. We don't have to cover the
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number. So I got Miami on the money line
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at -145 Now if you'd like the under, I don't blame you.
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At least try to get the hook. It opened 39 1/2.
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It's down to 37 1/2, but a lot of books are 37.
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Seems pretty low, but kind of seems low for a reason.
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Tickets are split, but 61% of money is on the under.
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We have seen these primetime unders do very well. 60% so far
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since 2019. And 8:00 and 5:00 to the under
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this year. Hard Rock Stadium tonight, low
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80s, cloudy skies, five to seven mile per hour winds.
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So nothing there that's very notable, but at least if you're
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going under, try to get the hook.
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Like I lean under just because in general, prime time unders
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have been a great contrarian opportunity.
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So it's a lean for me. But my only bet here for the
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game bet would be Miami money line.
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But I do have a prop bet for you.
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We're going to go with our guy and I call him our guy, even
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though I've never met him and I've never bet on him before.
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But I've watched him play and he's electric.
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Devon a chain, a chain, a chain, a Chan.
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I was on V sin earlier today and Stormy corrected me.
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I believe it's it's a Chan, but I'm going to go over a Chan 25
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1/2 receiving yards. Can he get us 26 receiving yards
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tonight? That's the bet over 25 1/2.
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But a Chan has gone over this number in all three games this
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year. So in week one against
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Jacksonville he had 76 receiving yards and week two against
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Buffalo he had 69 receiving yards.
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And in week 3 last week against Seattle he had 28 receiving
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yards. So he's 3 and O to the over.
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And my, also my thought process here is with Huntley coming in,
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making his first start with Miami, you know, how much of the
10:02
of the playbook does he know? Are they going to do a lot of
10:04
complex things? I wouldn't, I wouldn't put that
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that much on him. He's he's kind of new to the
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team. So is he going to have some dump
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off passes, some check down passes as you get acclimated to
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a new system? Who's your best friend, a
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running back out of the backfield that you can dump it
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off to and he can get you, you know, 10-15 yards a clip.
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To put a little cherry on top, We have a good rhythm edge for
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eight for HN rhythm is predicting 34.2 receiving yards.
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So if we have an over 25 1/2 and rhythms predicting 34.2 feels
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like a decent edge there. So I'm going to go H in over 25
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1/2 receiving yards. Miami on the money line.
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And I would just mention our friends at Juice Reel the robot,
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one of the Robo Jackson best bet picks.
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They bought 2 of them come out each day around noon.
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One of them is on Miami. So I like to see that overlap
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with the with the Robo Jackson AI bought.
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But give me Miami on the money line and let's go H in over 25
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1/2 receiving yards. Now the big one, Seattle and
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Detroit, which I get access to a lot of ticket counts guys.
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And I can just tell you there's are far more bets on Seattle,
11:08
Detroit than 10 Tennessee, Miami.
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So obviously the public is much more interested in this game
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because you have obviously much better opponents.
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But that's also important because it's a sharp line move
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with a contrarian play and a heavily backed game tonight.
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So let's set the stage here. We have Seattle coming in three
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and O they just brushed aside the Dolphins 24 to three as you
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mentioned earlier, easily covering as a four and a half
11:30
point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Lions 2 and one
11:33
just took down the Cardinals 20 to 13 covered as a three-point
11:36
Rd. favorite. So what we seen across the
11:38
market here. Well, this game opened Detroit
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listed as a four and a half point home favorite.
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And the public, they know Seattle is undefeated, but they
11:45
can't quit Detroit. I admit I like what I see out of
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Detroit. Exciting team.
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They're very bold. Made it to the playoffs last
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year. Detroit's kind of become a bit
11:53
of a public darling. You have the M&M factor.
11:55
They finally went a home game. You know, Detroit's kind of a
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public Cinderella, an attachment from public perception, public
12:02
bias in favor of Detroit. So with that being said, 67% of
12:07
bets are laying it with Detroit tonight.
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They'll say they're saying, hey, Detroit at home laying, you
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know, relatively short number, little bit more than a field
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goal, by far less than a touchdown.
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Detroit will easily cover this spread.
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However, even though 67% of bets are on Detroit guys, this line
12:22
has moved down towards Seattle -4 1/2 Detroit now down to four
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at a lot of shops and even throughout the week, Seattle was
12:30
down to 3 1/2. So opener 4 1/2 Detroit, even
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though they're getting nearly 7 out of 10 bets and never got to
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5 #5 and half number six and number rose in favor of Detroit,
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which is what you would expect if they're getting a big
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majority of bets, it's only gone down in favor of Seattle.
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So Ding, Ding, Ding, what we call that reverse line movement
12:49
when the bang line goes away from the public side toward the
12:53
unpopular contrarian side. Also notable here, Seahawks only
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getting 33% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game
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nationally televised. Of course this is far more
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heavily bet than the the Tennessee Miami game.
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So just from a walk into a bar anywhere in America tonight,
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every every TV's on Seattle, Detroit and pretty much
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everybody's playing Detroit. I want to walk in on that bar
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and go the other way. Bet against the drunk guys who
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are on Detroit and go Seattle. Next.
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Seahawks are matching a ton of system matches.
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Dogs getting 4 points or more. This is really been a go to.
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You may have seen on Twitter a lot of people putting out stats
13:29
for dogs like 6 1/2 or more, seven or more.
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They've been great, but let's just go with dogs getting four
13:34
more. They're 19 and 9 against the
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spread this year, 68 percent, 29% ROI.
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They've been a great killer spot.
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Actually, if you look at dogs that are three or less, they
13:44
haven't been asking. I think they have a losing
13:45
record. So it's really been the four or
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more that's cashed, which of course, Seattle tonight for even
13:50
4 1/2. Stay tuned for that because I
13:52
think you got to get the hook here.
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But Rd. dogs another way to go. Contrarian public loves home
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teams and favorites by going dog and road team.
14:00
The easy way to bet against the public.
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But Rd. dogs this season are 25 and 17 against the spread 60%
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and they're 528 and 442 ATS. 54 percent. 5% ROI since 2018.
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So 54% may not seem great. You know you get a 54% or 54 on
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a math test, you know in algebra in 8th grade and you know that
14:21
that's not good. You might get grounded by your
14:22
parents or need the tutor. 54% in a spread sport is winning.
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Remember the magic numbers? 52.38% prime time dogs, 125 and
14:31
98 against the spread, 56 percent, 8% ROI since 2020.
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Geno Smith 11 and eight against the spread as a dog with the
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Seahawks, that's a 58% cover rate.
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Also, you look at Dan Campbell, he's been great, especially as a
14:45
dog. He's covered a lot of numbers
14:47
since he took over the Lions. But against Seattle, he's Owen
14:51
three straight up. For whatever reason, he cannot
14:53
solve Seattle. Hope that continues tonight or
14:55
hey, win by three or less. But here's the thing, everywhere
14:59
you look across the market is pretty much Detroit -4 but there
15:03
is a four and a half out there. Always shop around, have
15:06
multiple outs. FanDuel is offering plus 4 1/2
15:09
at -115 and there are a lot of books that are juicing up
15:13
Detroit -4 up to -115 So you could buy it up to the hook, or
15:17
we could wait. And because it's juiced up
15:19
toward Detroit, we may just naturally get up to 4 1/2 before
15:22
kick off. But do whatever you can to get
15:24
the hook here. That's what I did.
15:26
I open up my FanDuel account. I took that 4 1/2 at -115 so I'm
15:30
on Seattle plus 4 1/2. Shop around, buy it up, get the
15:35
hook, do whatever you can to get it.
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I hate to see Detroit win by 4 and you push because you got
15:39
Seattle plus 4 instead of, again, doing your homework and
15:42
getting the hook there. This under it looks pretty
15:45
appealing to me as well. I open 48 1/2, it's down to 47
15:49
and some of these 40 sevens are just a little bit under like it
15:51
may fall even further. That's notable because 61% of
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bets are taking the over, yet it fell.
15:57
So some RLM on a lower scoring game.
15:59
I mentioned prime time unders. They're eight and five this
16:01
year. They're 60% since 2019.
16:03
But when the total is 47 or more, quote UN quote high end
16:07
total prime time unders are four and one this year and they're 24
16:10
and 973 percent, 39% ROI since 2022.
16:16
So again, prime time unders have been good regardless.
16:18
When you get to the higher ones, 47 or more, they're even better,
16:21
winning nearly three out of four times.
16:23
So give me the 4 1/2 with Seattle and if you want to sweat
16:25
a player prop, I'm going to go with the big man.
16:28
DK Metcalf Over 65 1/2 receiving yards -110 Across the market,
16:34
Metcalf has put up a ton of yards over the last two games.
16:37
In particular. He's gone over 100 receiving
16:39
yards his last two games. He had 129 against the Patriots.
16:43
He had one O 4 against Miami last week.
16:46
Also look at the opponent here, Detroit.
16:48
Great offense, but they give up some points defensively or at
16:50
least a lot of yardage. They are 21st and passing yards
16:54
allowed per game. They give me up around 217 yards
16:57
per game. And the other thought process
16:59
for me going with Metcalf, I'll give you the rhythm edge here in
17:02
a second because it's really good.
17:03
But also Seattle game script is a dog and a high total game.
17:08
So if you're a dog, maybe you're down.
17:10
You got to pass the ball more than you run it.
17:13
You got to keep pace here. Maybe a backdoor cover, maybe
17:15
you're down and I hope, I hope we don't need a backdoor cover,
17:18
but whatever it takes to win. Maybe an Aubrey missed missed
17:21
field goal again, whatever it takes.
17:24
But I think the important thing is, you know, game script,
17:27
garbage yards late, keeping pace in a high scoring game.
17:30
I think Seattle's got to throw the ball and if they run the
17:33
ball that may not keep up with Detroit.
17:34
So throwing it going to Metcalf. That is my goal.
17:38
Over 65 and half receiving yards are friends at rhythm.
17:42
Guess what they're predicting guys 86.4.
17:45
That is nearly a 20 or 21 yard discrepancy there between the
17:49
market and what Rhythm is predicting.
17:51
I also mentioned Rhythm has a game model here, a prediction
17:55
where the spread should be. Seattle plus 2.3, so 2.3.
17:59
We're getting 4 1/2. Find that hook good edge there
18:02
as well. So Seattle plus 4 1/2 and I'm
18:04
going DK Metcalf over 65 1/2 receiving yards.
18:09
That about does it for episode 130 of the All Systems Go sports
18:13
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
18:15
Unfortunately, no WNBA today. Major League Baseball.
18:19
I know we have the Mets in Atlanta going, which is
18:21
obviously a huge game. Tomorrow I might have a play for
18:24
you. There's a couple a couple
18:27
playoff games going on. And then we do have, before you
18:30
know it, college football coming back on Thursday.
18:33
NFL is coming back on Thursday. I'll mention this game just to
18:37
throw it at you because I haven't gotten to my sharp
18:39
report yet for NFL Week 5. But if you look at Sunday night,
18:42
Dallas, Pittsburgh, this game opened like Dallas, look ahead
18:45
-1 1/2. It's now up to -2 - 2 1/2
18:48
Pittsburgh. And everyone's playing Dallas,
18:50
like Pittsburgh is a contrarian home favorite.
18:52
As of now, Sunday night only getting like 30% of bets.
18:56
That could be a Pittsburgh feed the trendy dog play.
18:58
Again, we're a ways away, but that reminds me a little bit of
19:01
Pittsburgh in the Baltimore spot from last night where everyone
19:04
was taking the popular trendy Rd. dog, yet the sharp
19:08
contrarian home favorite was was the winner there.
19:10
So keep an eye on Pittsburgh and I will have a college well,
19:13
sharp report, early week sharp report coming out tomorrow,
19:16
which you can find on my Twitter at Josh under score insights.
19:20
But that about does everybody. This is the part of the pod here
19:22
where we wrap things up and I start by asking you a favor.
19:26
Could you do me a favor, guys? Can you do me a solid?
19:28
Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
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If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, go to the rate
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review, click the five stars. I very much appreciate that.
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It would help us to rise up the charts, rise up the ratings, get
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more eyeballs, listens, credibility, continue to build
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momentum around the ASG pod. I'd very much appreciate that.
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If there's an option to follow, click that follow button.
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That way you'll get alerted as soon as it drops.
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And if you also want to recommend it to a friend, that
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would be fantastic as well. Secondly, if you enjoy this
19:58
style of breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting, not
20:01
what your gut thinks, you let you know.
20:03
People say go with your gut. Typically you don't go with the
20:06
data, go with where the money's going.
20:08
Learn to read the market. The market will give you clues
20:10
as to where the public is, where the smart money's AT, and that's
20:13
really what we focus on as data-driven better.
20:15
So if this style of betting appeals to you, if you enjoy the
20:17
pod, if you wanna make money, let me know.
20:19
You appreciate the hard work that I put in hosting this pod
20:22
on a daily basis. Then please buy my book.
20:26
Support the team, learn more about data-driven betting.
20:28
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
20:29
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything Guide to Sports
20:32
betting. It'll explain to you how lines
20:34
are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how
20:37
to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
20:40
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
20:42
management plan, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
20:45
Betting. It makes a fantastic gift
20:49
stocking stuffer. I know we're a ways away from
20:51
the holidays, but somebody's birthday, grandpa's birthday,
20:54
your your nephew's birthday, Co worker colleague, someone who's
20:57
in a newly legalized state, someone who's interested in
20:59
betting but has no freaking clue where to start.
21:02
Get them the get them the data-driven blueprint, the
21:05
everything guide to sports betting, Amazon.com.
21:07
And when you bring it to the book, when I see at the book,
21:09
I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer next.
21:13
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Rhythm or
21:16
Juice Reel, My two favorite sports betting apps on the
21:18
market. They help me win.
21:19
They'll help you win, but they can only help you if you go
21:22
download that app. So Rhythm is great for their AI
21:25
models and predictions for both game bets and player props.
21:28
Juice Reel fantastic for syncing up your sports books, getting a
21:32
running record and report card for your action, learning about
21:34
yourself, strengths and weaknesses as a better, but also
21:37
so many great tools like the best bet picks that come out
21:39
each day from Robo as well as the sharp mush system matches,
21:44
the arbitrage opportunities, the game breakdowns and dollar
21:47
figures for every game based on people who have a rhythm or have
21:50
a juice reel account have placed those actual bets.
21:52
But two great apps go download them, but do them in this
21:56
download them in this particular way.
21:58
When you go to the, the, the podcast itself, the bio
22:02
description of each pod, it'll say something like for today
22:05
example, episode 130, Josh dishes out a four pack of sweats
22:08
for Monday Night Football. Double header.
22:10
OK, Scroll down after that description.
22:12
There should be a link to Rhythm and a link to Juice Reel.
22:14
Click those custom links. That way they know I refer to
22:17
you, which is important. And then you'll be off and
22:19
running. So you can again help have those
22:22
apps help you to make sharper bets.
22:25
So how about does it, everybody? My parting words as always,
22:28
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
22:31
Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
22:34
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
22:37
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
22:40
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
22:43
get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where
22:46
the lowest true as possible is found at the South Point.
22:48
Or sweat and Sharp and train plays, jumping in the stadium
22:50
swim pool when you catch a big ticket like Bama at circa,
22:54
whatever it may be, you're going to show me a Bama ticket.
22:57
You're going to show me a Falcons money line, a Washington
22:59
commanders, a Baltimore Ravens fade the trendy dog.
23:02
Guess what? First one's on me.
23:04
Next one's on you. We're going to post about the
23:05
book. So at sharp contrarian plays all
23:07
night long. So wish the best luck everyone
23:10
enjoy the final day of September.
23:13
Have you gotten your your pumpkins for your your front
23:16
porch yet? Are you ready for the trick or
23:17
treaters? I know we're we're getting
23:19
closer here, but again, one of my favorite favorite times of
23:22
the year fall in New England. So let's finish up September
23:25
strong, everybody, let's finish up NFL week 4 strong and we back
23:28
at it tomorrow for another episode of the all systems go
23:31
pod. But as always, leave you with
23:33
this. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
23:36
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
23:38
house. Always be with the smart money,
23:40
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
23:43
Of course not. Again, there's no such thing as
23:45
locker guarantee. Anything can happen in a one off
23:47
bad beats, crazy backdoor covers, you know, refs blowing a
23:51
call, human error, luck, randomness, beating the razor
23:55
sharp lines the odds maker set. That's all a part of what makes
23:58
betting difficult and challenging, but also rewarding
24:00
when you're able to win. But here's the thing.
24:02
If we can stay true to our blue, our blueprint here against the
24:06
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
24:10
get that closing line value. If we can do that long term bet
24:13
with our head and not our heart as data-driven better as we're
24:15
going to be successful. So just stick with the model.
24:18
Let's keep grinding guys. I hope you enjoy this Monday
24:21
football doubleheader again. I don't get why they don't give
24:23
you a 7:00 game and a 10:00 game like you got to make me watch
24:27
both at once. I still got to catch up on
24:29
Saturday Night Live, so come on. But anyway, guys, enjoy your
24:32
Monday night. We're back at it for tomorrow on
24:35
a big Tuesday for episode 131 of the All Systems Go Sports
24:39
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:42
Good luck everybody, have a great Monday night.