Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 112 - 9/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 112 - 9/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 1-12 of the All Systems Go
0:23
sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Thirsty Thursday, Another day here in the arena, guys, but
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more importantly, entering the arena of NFL.
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That's right. The regular season is upon us.
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The long wait is over. We have the first game of the
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year kicking off tonight. Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City
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Chiefs, a rematch of the AFC championship game from last year
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where if you rode Kansas City, you had a big win there in
0:57
Baltimore. But I got a full breakdown of
0:59
tonight's game. I got a best bet on tonight's
1:01
game, our first official NFL bet of the regular season, as well
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as a couple prop bets for tonight.
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Don't talk a ton of prop bets, but when it comes to NFLI, love
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betting prop bets because we have a great edge and a great
1:15
partner and that partner is Rhythm, who does a great job of
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powering this pod. Last year was kind of my first
1:20
year getting deep into player props using Rhythm had pretty
1:23
good success. For those of you who know, you
1:26
know, we're going to get right back to it this year and really
1:29
look at big discrepancy plays where maybe, you know, wide
1:31
receiver is over under is, I don't know, 18 1/2 yards and
1:35
rhythm is predicting, you know, 35 yards.
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Boom, we'll take the over that sort of advantage play.
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So we got two player props here for tonight's game.
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I have a full bet on tonight's game on the side and then
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because today is really the last day before obviously the regular
1:51
season starts and we start to climb the mountain of NFL
1:54
betting. Going to give you my final card
1:57
here, My Portfolio for win totals because obviously
2:00
season's about to start now. You can still bet win totals
2:03
throughout the season, but they'll be adjusted and the
2:05
whole point is, hey, let's try to bet them now.
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Feeling like we have a good edge before the season starts, so I
2:11
have 5 win total bets. You may have heard me mention
2:13
them before, but just one last mention here before we get ready
2:17
for the regular season. And then because today's pod is
2:19
all NFL, we are going to talk some updated numbers from
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yesterday's pot. Remember we talked about betting
2:25
strategies for Week 1, looking at dogs, Rd. dogs, divisional
2:30
dogs, dogs who missed the postseason the previous year and
2:33
Week 1 having a great edge. Well, some of the games that we
2:36
talked about, almost all of them are starting to move in our
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favor. So I'm going to give you an
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update on those games we talked about yesterday and also say,
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hey, let's bet these games right now before they move any
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further. So it's all NFL on the opening
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day of the NFL season again. Best bet for Baltimore, Kansas
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City, 2 prop bets, win totals, and then updated numbers here
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for NFL Week 1, which we should grab now before they move even
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further. Now, looking back to our last
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night, the reason partly because I'm doing all football today, is
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that I need a day off from Major League Baseball.
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It has been a rough time here. Rough sledding here.
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Tough sledding last week or so. One and three yesterday -2.1
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units. We had a good win with the Mets,
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but the Orioles laying 1 1/2, they lose 8 to one to the White
3:20
Sox. You know, craziness is taking
3:22
over MLB when the White Sox win 8 to one, Brewers went to extra
3:26
innings, couldn't get it done, lost to the Cardinals and the
3:28
Astros got rolled by the lowly Reds.
3:30
So it is just so volatile right now in Major League Baseball.
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We've had a good year. I don't want to continue to dig
3:36
a hole here. Let's kind of keep an eye on
3:38
baseball. I'm not going to say we're done
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betting baseball, but on a day like today when football's
3:43
taking center stage, let's take a breather from MLB.
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We'll reassess coming into tomorrow's pod.
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Probably have some plays on a full card on a Friday, but it's
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a short card today. I'm annoyed by baseball.
3:54
Let's focus our attention on NFL, which historically has been
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one of our better sports to bet on.
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So with that being said, let's get down.
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Let's start talking about Baltimore, Kansas City, first
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game of the year. The NFL is back.
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Let's just take a moment. You know how you have, you know
4:09
when a bad thing happens, a moment of silence.
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How about a moment of, I don't know, excitement because NFL is
4:14
back in our lives. Obviously we have college
4:16
football, which we'll have them with some plays for tomorrow.
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And I, I should have an announcement for you.
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A lot of people have been asking me, hey, what's your schedule
4:23
this fall? What are you going to be doing
4:25
on the weekends? We'll have something lined up
4:27
and hopefully I'll make that announcement tomorrow.
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I'm working behind the scenes with a good buddy of mine and we
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have an idea. We're going to hopefully
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implement it and I should have an announcement for you moving
4:36
forward for how you can listen to these breakdowns all NFL
4:40
season long. Without further ado, Baltimore,
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Kansas City, 8:20 PM Eastern Time tonight.
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What's the market doing? Where are we going to put down
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our money and where are the prop bet opportunities?
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So let's start off with the game breakdown.
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Now going into this one little background.
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We all know the Ravens good team 13 and four last year won the
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AFC North, reached the AFC championship game where they
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fell to the Chiefs 17 to 10. Baltimore's win total this year
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is 10 1/2 juiced up over -120 so odds makers expecting another
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big year at least regular season wise for Lamar Jackson and
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company. You know the Chiefs 11 and six
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regular season but won their second consecutive Super Bowl.
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Super Bowl I will never forget because everyone told me I was
5:23
an idiot for playing the Patrick Mahomes as a dog system match.
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And then who got the last laugh? Well, we did with Mahomes
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getting that overtime win 2522. But Kansas City, their win total
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is 11 1/2 this year, tied with the 49ers for the highest in the
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NFL. But the NFL win total for the
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49ers is 11 1/2 under -145. Chiefs is 11 1/2 / - 115.
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So expecting another big year from Kansas City and they are
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the favorite to win the Super Bowl plus 500. 49ers right
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behind them plus 600. Ravens have the third best odds
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at plus 1000. And again the Chiefs are going
6:00
for that elusive 3 peat like Jordan's Bulls back in the day.
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So after we set the background here, again two good teams
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expected to have good years. Well, what about tonight's game?
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From a market based approach, what are we seeing?
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Well, here's my breakdown on tonight's game.
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This game opened with Kansas City listed as a 2 1/2 point
6:19
home favorite. So you can think of it this way.
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Typically you get 3 points for, you know, home field advantage.
6:25
Nowadays, it's probably closer to one or two.
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Basically on a neutral site, these teams are pretty much
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even. However, here's what we've seen
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across the market. The public is saying give me
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Baltimore, give me Baltimore and the points trendy dog Baltimore.
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And again, that's any here. Anytime you hear trendy dog, you
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know probably where I'm going next to this one.
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But anyway, majority of bets are on ball, are on Baltimore.
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Currently they're getting 55% of spread bets saying hey, two
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teams being equal, might as well take the points, right?
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Take Lamar Jackson. I'm going to give you a stat on
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Lamar Jackson in a second. But then I'm also going to give
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you a caveat to that stat because you've probably seen
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that all over Twitter or now called X, of course.
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But anyway, Publix leaning with Baltimore around 55% of spread
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bets. But what is the line done?
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The line open -2 1/2 Kansas City.
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It's never gone down to two, and it's either stayed juiced up
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Kansas City -2 1/2 -, 115, or it's gone all the way up to
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three. So really reading between the
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lines, that's our first indicator here.
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That to me, Kansas City is the sharp bet tonight.
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Majority of the public is on Baltimore just from a contrarian
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standpoint. And again, I'm not going to say
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55% is a massive public play. I mean, I'd rather see 65
7:36
percent, 75%, but still majority bets on Baltimore.
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But the line has either stayed the same or been juiced up and
7:42
moved toward Kansas City. So if slight majority bets are
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on the Ravens, why hasn't this gone down to two?
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Why hasn't it gone down to 1 1/2?
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It stayed the same or inched up toward Kansas City, Whether it's
7:53
the juice or the full move, two and half to three.
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Because that tells me odds makers really don't want to give
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out a lower number, a better number to Kansas City backers.
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They'll take in that Baltimore money from public betters, but
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they will not adjust it downward for respect or fear of
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contrarian betters going with Kansas City.
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So Kansas City's checking off some boxes.
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They have a low bet higher, higher dollars, bet split.
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They're only getting 45% of spread bets, but 55% of spread
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dollars. So contrarian heavily bet game,
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low bets, higher dollars bet split line freeze or reverse
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line movement -2 1/2 again juiced up some books even to
8:32
three and then a classic fade the trendy dog play.
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Now I can tell you guys right off the bat, you know, if
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you've, if you've gone through an NFL year betting season with
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me before, you know I love dogs and unders.
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That obviously doesn't change because NFL betting is a huge
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public sport and public loves favorites, loves overs.
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Therefore going dogs and unders are typically your smart
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contrarian play and the and the really the data bears it out.
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You know, dogs and unders have been the way to bet here for for
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quite a while at this point. And I expect that only to get
9:02
better with more states legalizing.
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But here's the thing, we love the hazmat dogs.
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Any of you who remember when I used to be on the Lombardi line
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with my buddy Patrick Maher and Michael Lombardi, I would always
9:12
kind of mention these teams that are disgusting and yet they're
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sharp. And Michael Lombardi would
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always joke and say, oh, that's a hazmat play because it's so
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gross, so disgusting. Looks like it's got no shot at
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covering. It's radioactive, you can't
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touch it. You got to put on a hazmat suit
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to bet it. So those are the dogs.
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We like the hazmat dogs, the poor dogs.
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When you go to the pound and they're kind of scruffy looking,
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maybe they have fleas, they're gross.
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We love those dogs because they're undervalued.
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When a dog becomes popular, when it becomes, you know, perfectly
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manicured, pedicured, it's got all the perfect features.
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Everyone's loving that dog. That dog loses its value and we
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want to therefore bet against it.
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So we love the gross dogs. We don't love the pampered,
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perfectly manicured dogs. So that popular dog play, trendy
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dog will be Baltimore here. So we have a contrarian play
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with the reverse line move or line freeze.
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Low bets, higher dollars in favor of Kansas City.
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Now you got to ask yourself a couple questions because we've
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identified some liability contrarian reverse line movement
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line freeze on Kansas City. But now if you want to play
10:12
Kansas City, what are you going to do?
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There are some books at -3 there are some books at -2 1/2 if you
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want to lay a 2 1/2. Like here's the thing, if you
10:19
want to stick with the spread, obviously you should be able to
10:21
find Kansas City -2 1/2 Shop around.
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There are some threes out there. But whenever I kind of want to
10:27
play a short home favorite, I like to money line short home
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favorites because they push back the extra point.
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Obviously, you know, Bucker and you know Tucker, they're two of
10:37
the best kickers in the NFL. But you know, going for two, you
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know, miss extra points. Short number here.
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Odds makers are telling you it's going to be A1 possession tight
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game. Maybe someone goes for too late.
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I would hate to lay A2 and half with Kansas City, have them win
10:52
by one or two and I lose my bet. Or lay a three with KC and they
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win by three and I push my bet. So I'm a big proponent of money
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lining short favorites. So instead of laying A2 and half
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or three with Kansas City, I'm going money line Kansas City to
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win the game straight up. Now on the money line, Kansas
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City is between around -145 and -150.
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Shop around. I got the Chiefs at -145 But
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here's where it gets, you know, maybe some more confidence to
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money line the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes straight up as a
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home favorite is 35 and 10 in his career, 78%.
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Now here's a stat that I was mentioning earlier.
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Lamar Jackson, he's 12 and one against the spread as a dog in
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his career. This is regular season, 92%.
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That's pretty darn good. However, against Mahomes, he's
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one and four straight up in 5 head to head matchups.
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So here's my angle. I'm going Kansas City money
11:44
line. But I do want to mention if you
11:46
like Baltimore, maybe it's a teaser play because we got to
11:50
start thinking about the Wong teaser.
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There's a great book written by Stanford Wong.
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He was really credited with creating the Wong teaser.
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And basically what that means is you're teasing through multiple
11:59
key numbers. A lot of you know, recreational
12:01
betters, new betters, they discover the teaser and the
12:03
greatest thing since sliced bread because you're getting
12:06
these great numbers that seem like they can't possibly lose
12:08
because you're getting six extra points.
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But here's the thing, the public will just take their favorites
12:14
and tease them down or their favorite dogs and tease them up.
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But that's not what wise guys do.
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Wise guys only look to tease through key numbers.
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So if you like Baltimore, I'm not going to argue with you.
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If you want to tease them plus 2 1/2 up to plus 8 1/2 because
12:28
that will go through three, that'll go through 7.
12:30
So if you want to make the case, that could be worth a look here.
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Now, I think it's important to monitor where this thing closes
12:37
because we're hovering around 2 1/2 or 3, and obviously moving
12:41
on or off of 3 is a huge decision by the sports books
12:44
because there's so much money on the line.
12:46
So that's something to keep an eye out for you.
12:48
Like if this thing closes at -3 across the board painted, that's
12:52
a good sign. Kansas City, if it closes 2 1/2,
12:56
maybe the juice even changes toward Baltimore.
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That's a good sign for Baltimore.
13:00
So always pay attention to where a line closes, especially around
13:03
a key number. And again, game day movement is
13:06
always huge. I always lean on game day
13:07
movement and late movement because that's when the biggest
13:10
bets come in, limits are raised and typically the sharpest bets,
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you know, start to populate. By the way, they are paving my
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Rd. So if you hear like some crazy
13:19
noises, we got the work crew out there working hard.
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Just if you're wondering, it's not an earthquake.
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It's it's paving the road. Anyway, the total want to
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mention the total here. It opened around 46 1/2.
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It got bet up as high as 47 1/2. Now it's back down to 46 1/2.
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So the under I typically lean unders in prime time games
13:41
anyway. Like prime time unders have been
13:43
a great bet historically. They're 160 and one O 760
13:47
percent, 15% ROI since 2019. One thing that trips me up a
13:52
little bit is the key number here.
13:53
If you wanted to play the under was 47 1/2.
13:55
Now it's down to 46 1/2. You know, 2720 game, 2423 game
14:02
47 key numbers with totals. They aren't as important as key
14:05
numbers with spreads because they happen less often, but
14:07
still 47 is a bit of a key number when it comes to a total.
14:11
But it does tell me that wise guys really did like that under
14:14
47 1/2 tickets are split down the middle 5050 on the total,
14:19
but nearly 65% of money is going under here and then also look at
14:24
Sean Hockley. He has a good under F.
14:26
Remember, he's the son of, of, you know, the, the big biceps,
14:31
Ed Hockley, Sean Hockley. The sun is 52 and 4057% to the
14:35
under now. It should be a great night at
14:37
Arrowhead. I don't think they call it
14:39
Arrowhead anymore. Let me double check.
14:41
What do they call it now? I guess it's still Arrowhead.
14:43
I thought they changed the name to some stupid insurance name.
14:46
Anyway, Arrowhead, it's going to be high 70s, low 80s, partly
14:51
cloudy skies, really low, modest winds, you know, five to seven
14:55
mph. But the chiefs were the best
14:59
under team last year. They were 12:00 and 5:00 to the
15:01
under. Ravens were nine and eight to
15:03
the under. So you add it all up here, guys.
15:05
The way that I've been viewing this game, I've kind of been
15:07
hinting at it throughout the week on the pod is that Publix
15:10
on Baltimore, but line is either stayed the same remove toward
15:13
Kansas City. So if I'm getting KC at a short
15:16
money line price and a fade the trendy dog spot, that's an
15:19
that's an opportunity I can't pass pass up.
15:22
So I'm going Chiefs on the money line to win the game tonight.
15:26
I got him at -145. Now over to the prop market
15:31
because again, thanks to our friends at Rhythm who I started
15:35
partnering up with officially this year.
15:37
But I was kind of tracking because my buddy James Santor is
15:41
one of the big wigs at Rhythm. I've been kind of tracking their
15:43
stats for over a year now at this point.
15:46
And I love their prop bets because the AI models will
15:49
basically spit out what they predict the players to produce.
15:52
And then you can kind of compare like a wise guy or wise gal, the
15:56
discrepancy play. So I found two prop bets here
16:00
tonight with a big edge. The first one is Lamar Jackson,
16:05
not his passing, but his rushing.
16:07
Now Lamar Jackson across the market.
16:09
And here's one important thing when it comes to props.
16:11
Got to shop around. You know, obviously it's
16:13
important for getting the best money line price, getting hooks,
16:16
getting the best price for a total.
16:19
But especially with prop bets, they can really fluctuate from
16:21
one book to another. But here's what I noticed.
16:24
Lamar Jackson over 48 1/2 rushing yards.
16:28
Now one thing I like about this is a huge discrepancy between
16:31
the market and what Rhythm is predicting.
16:34
Rhythm is predicting Lamar Jackson to finish with 73.5
16:39
rushing yards. So if the market is 48 1/2 and
16:43
Rhythm is predicting 73 1/2, that is a huge what, 20 I'm bad
16:50
at math 232425. Basically a 25 point edge or 25
16:56
yard edge between the market and what Rhythm is predicting.
16:59
Now if you remember Lamar Jackson in the championship
17:01
game, he did rush 8 times for 54 yards against Kansas City, all
17:06
things being equal. Another thing, part of the
17:08
reason why I want to bet against Baltimore, I've been reading
17:10
about how they have 3 new offensive lineman that they're
17:12
working in. So that could be, you know, part
17:14
of the reason why we've seen this line stay the same remove
17:17
toward Kansas City. Also, if your line isn't great,
17:19
maybe Lamar Jackson, Jackson just takes off and runs a little
17:23
bit. But anyway, the betting market
17:25
is 48 1/2 rhythms prediction 73 1/2.
17:30
So a great angle there in terms of buying low on Jackson's over.
17:34
Now 48 1/2 is pretty widely available.
17:37
FanDuel has it right now 48 1/2, but DraftKings is 49 1/2.
17:41
So you may not think like A1 yard is a big deal, but let's
17:44
just say it lands on 49. You cash over 48 1/2 at FanDuel,
17:49
you lose over 49 1/2 at DraftKings.
17:52
But when I see a big discrepancy like that, to me, I'm going to
17:54
trust in the data. Take a shot on Jackson over 48
17:58
1/2 rushing yards. Now my second bet here is a
18:02
little known wide receiver for Kansas City.
18:05
It is Justin Watson found a big discrepancy with Justin Watson's
18:10
receiving yards. Now in the betting market, his
18:13
receiving yardage is 16 1/2. Basically can get you one long
18:17
17 yard catch or maybe a couple, you know, a couple 810 yard
18:21
catches, something like that. But 16 1/2 is the betting
18:25
market. Rhythm is predicting 30
18:28
receiving yards. Now, as always, shop around
18:31
because FanDuel is 16 1/2 over at -110.
18:36
DraftKings is 16 1/2 over at -125.
18:39
So you're getting a better juice price by going FanDuel again,
18:42
having multiple outs, but Watson 16 1/2 when Rhythm's predicting
18:46
30. Jackson is 48 1/2 rushing when
18:49
Rhythm is predicting 73 1/2. So can we get Kansas City and at
18:54
least one of these prop bets? That's the goal, to go 2 and one
18:57
and have a winning night in our first night of the NFL season.
19:01
Now over to some NFL win totals. And before I mention the win
19:06
totals, I also wanted to throw this in there, Our friends at
19:09
Juice Reel. Of the two best bets from our
19:12
friend Robo Jackson, the hardest working AI bought, guess what
19:15
one of them is Chief's Money line -150 Chef's Kiss.
19:19
Love to see it. I love when I overlap with Juice
19:21
Reel and Rhythm. Anyway, wind totals.
19:24
I have a pocket full of. I have a pocket full of plays
19:29
for you when it comes to wind totals.
19:32
Now, I've mentioned a few of these before, but I'm just going
19:34
to rehash them for you because it's really your last chance.
19:37
Obviously, I think you have until Sunday to put them in, but
19:40
let's try to get some good numbers before they move.
19:42
So my first win total bet, it's the first bet I made over the
19:46
summer. Houston Texans over 9 1/2 wins.
19:51
I like the Texans to win 10 games or more.
19:53
I actually just got a fresh batch of data for my buddy John
19:56
Ewing with the win total numbers.
19:58
And if you remember, the Houston Texans win total was actually an
20:02
opener of nine and a half under -120 Now it's 9 1/2 over. -140
20:08
it's getting 70% of bets, nearly 80% of dollars.
20:12
I like the Houston Texans to take another leap forward.
20:14
CJ Stroud and D'amico Ryan's year 2, they're bringing Stefan
20:18
Diggs and Joe Mixon kind of a down division in the AFC.
20:21
S sells on the earliest bets. I made the Texans to win double
20:25
digit games. I'm on Texans over 9 1/2 wins.
20:29
Next bet for you Atlanta Falcons over 9 1/2 wins.
20:32
Now, the Falcons opened the offseason 9 1/2 wins over -130
20:37
now it's 9 1/2 / - 150. So we've seen some juice
20:41
movement in favor of the Atlanta Falcons winning 10 games or
20:44
more. And in particular, the bet split
20:46
looks fantastic for the Falcons to go over 9 1/2 wins because
20:50
currently 61% of tickets but 84% of dollars are going over.
20:56
Again, that's basically less than 2/3 of tickets, but again,
21:00
a much higher share of money there.
21:01
So we have again, same model that we use for biting low bets,
21:05
higher dollars line move. The line move here would be in
21:07
the form of a juice move. But the Falcons are a match for
21:10
me and another big reason like Atlanta to win 10 games or more.
21:14
Not a great division, but also the easiest schedule in the NFL.
21:18
So hopefully with Kirk Cousins, obviously bring in Matthew Judon
21:22
to help the defense. They signed Justin Simmons.
21:24
They got a lot of young stud, you know, weapons here in terms
21:27
of offense. But can the Falcons win 10
21:29
games? I'm hoping so.
21:31
I'm on Atlanta over 9 1/2 wins, Chicago Bears da Bears.
21:35
I'm going Bears to win nine games over. 8 1/2 wins.
21:39
Now the Bears offseason open at 8 1/2 wins -110 both sides.
21:43
Now it's 8 1/2 wins over -150 -, 160.
21:48
And what's notable there is that you've seen a big juice move
21:51
toward the over, even though the tickets are right down the
21:54
middle. 5050. So Publix 50% / 50% under if
21:58
that's the case. Again, we talk about all the
22:00
time line shouldn't move it all if the tickets are split.
22:04
However, Juice got jacked up to the over because a big share of
22:07
smart money is going over. So this is a Bears team.
22:10
Obviously Caleb Williams, I don't love betting rookie
22:12
quarterbacks, you know, to to have a good season, but he was
22:16
the number one pick. You have a lot of good additions
22:18
there on offense as a team that was building and what they went
22:21
seven games last year with Justin Fields.
22:23
Can they win two more? I'm hoping so.
22:25
I'm going to follow that smart money.
22:26
Give me Bears over 8 1/2 wins. Packers over 9 1/2 wins.
22:32
It's a team, really. The two teams I was highest on,
22:34
and maybe you were too from what you saw in the playoffs in just
22:37
the regular season, the Texans and the Packers, those are two
22:40
teams on the rise. Kind of hard to argue with that.
22:43
But Packers over 9 1/2 wins. Can they win 10 games?
22:47
Packers 9 1/2 wins. Open -130 to the over.
22:50
Now it's -140 to the over currently 70% of bets, nearly
22:54
80% of money is going over. Jordan Love got his big
22:58
contract. Looks like another good year of
23:00
drafting. And Green Bay is one of the
23:01
better drafting teams. And obviously you have the
23:05
Bears, you have the Lions to compete with.
23:06
You look at the win total for the for the Vikings.
23:10
They're one of the lowest win total, 6 1/2.
23:13
But this is a team that's on the rise.
23:14
And I'm going to back Green Bay Packers over 9 1/2 wins.
23:18
And then last bet, which is my team, but I'm going to be
23:22
rooting for them to lose pretty much every game.
23:25
I'll probably have to hold my nose and take the points as a
23:27
dog every now and again. But the Patriots open the
23:30
offseason. 5 1/2 wins under -140 now it's falling all the way to
23:35
4 1/2 wins. I believe that's the only team
23:38
where the win total moved either up or down a full, a full win
23:43
again, 5 1/2 to 4 1/2. Now you can say to yourself,
23:46
hey, if it lands 5, you know, that would really stink because
23:49
we're getting the worst of the number here, but you're also
23:51
getting a plus money payout. Under 4 1/2 wins is plus 110.
23:55
So that's the play for me. Under 4 1/2 at plus 110.
23:58
Patriots have the hardest schedule in the NFL.
24:01
They have a rookie coach, rookie quarterback, and they traded
24:04
Judah on this sound. This feels like a small T tank
24:07
job for the Patriots, but here's some data, not just opinion.
24:11
Patriots under 4 1/2 wins. It's getting 65% of bets but 90%
24:17
of dollars. So a great low bets, higher
24:19
dollars bets split. So shop around.
24:21
I gave you the juice prices. Have multiple outs.
24:25
Find books that are giving you better juice prices, but in no
24:28
particular order. Houston over 9 1/2 wins, Atlanta
24:31
over 9 1/2 wins, Bears over 8 1/2 wins, Packers over 9 1/2
24:36
wins and Patriots under 4 1/2 wins.
24:40
That about does it for the first official NFL pod of the year.
24:44
That's right, football's back. Everything is right in the
24:46
world. Again.
24:47
This is part of the pod where I ask a favor of you.
24:50
If you enjoy the breakdowns, if you enjoy the insights, could
24:53
you please help me to grow this podcast by First off, giving it
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a five star review. If you're listening on Spotify
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or iTunes, can give it five stars that really make my day.
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Help us to grow the pod, gain more recognition, rise up the
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charts. If you want to recommend it to a
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friend or hit the follow button, there's an option to follow,
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click that. You'll get alerted as soon as
25:13
the pod drops each day. Secondly, if you enjoy the
25:16
data-driven breakdowns and you want to learn more about how to
25:19
be a successful data-driven better, well, guess what?
25:22
I wrote a book, it's called the everything Guide to sports
25:25
betting. I'm very proud of it.
25:27
That's got everything I've learned in the industry.
25:28
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
25:31
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place it in
25:33
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
25:36
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything guide
25:40
to sports betting. Now if you want to pick one up,
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it would really mean a lot to me.
25:44
Let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in grinding
25:46
in the arena each day now. Actually forgot I wanted to
25:50
mention some plays that we talked about yesterday that have
25:53
moved. So Carolina and New Orleans.
25:55
We talked about Carolina being a really sharp bet because they
25:59
are super contrarian. The lines going away from New
26:02
Orleans toward Carolina even though New Orleans is the sharp
26:04
bet and all of our systems, week one dog, Rd. dog, divisional dog
26:09
are all popping on Carolina. I would grab Carolina plus 4
26:13
right now because you're seeing some books go down to 3 1/2 and
26:16
if Carolina loses by 4, we want to push that bet, not lose that
26:19
bet. So if you are deciding whether
26:21
to plate, if you like Carolina, I just would highly recommend
26:24
grabbing them right now at a + 4 before they move too far.
26:28
Tennessee, Chicago gift and a curse.
26:30
Good thing line keeps going to Tennessee.
26:32
Yesterday Tennessee was +4. Now it's down to 3 1/2.
26:36
We're missing the four at this point, but if you want to walk
26:39
the tightrope, maybe wait it out because now it's 3 1/2 - 110
26:43
both sides. I don't see a huge reason to
26:45
grab 3 1/2 right now. If anything, let's wait.
26:48
Like if this was plus 3 1/2 -, 120 to Tennessee, then hey, even
26:51
though we missed the four, grab the 3 1/2 because it's going
26:54
down to three now. We're right down the middle 110,
26:57
three and a half. So let's wait.
26:59
Maybe it goes back up to four. I'll be on Tennessee probably at
27:02
3 1/2. But again, let's wait that thing
27:04
out because there's no reason to grab it right now because we
27:08
already missed the four. If you didn't play it from
27:10
yesterday's pod, Houston, Indy, again, if you have a three out
27:13
there, Indy is going to be your number one contrarian play of
27:17
the week. Only getting 17% of bets.
27:19
Books are 2 1/2. Really juiced up toward Houston.
27:22
Some threes out there. If a three is available, I'd
27:24
consider grabbing it. Vegas and the Chargers.
27:27
We talked about Vegas plus 3 1/2 down to three.
27:30
Divisional Dog, Rd. Dog.
27:32
Well, looks like that may get back up to 3 1/2.
27:34
I would wait on that. If you like Vegas, try to wait
27:37
and get the hook. Washington, Tampa Bay grabbing
27:40
the three and half right now with Washington, they're +4.
27:43
They got down to +3. But there are some three and a
27:45
halfs out there. So if you can get the hook on
27:47
Washington, I'm I'm playing them right now before they fall even
27:51
further. And then Cleveland dog to fave
27:54
plus one to -2 1/2. Going to wait that thing out
27:56
again because that's going to be a money line play for me.
27:59
And I don't know if it's going to go to three right now.
28:01
It's around -130 But really the big one I wanted to mention is
28:04
just Carolina. If you like Carolina, again, a
28:06
lot of those fours are falling 3 1/2.
28:08
So I wanted to fit that in without without forgetting to
28:11
mention that. Anyway, back to my pod ending
28:14
spiel. As we mentioned at the end of
28:16
every pod. But whether I see you at the
28:18
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:21
Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
28:24
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Rich Park Casino
28:27
or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts
28:30
route in the desert where the true grinders get down.
28:32
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
28:35
juice possible is found at the South Point.
28:37
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
28:39
swimming pool at Circa. When you cash a big ticket,
28:42
however, maybe hopefully you're going to show me Kansas City
28:45
ticket money line. Lamar Jackson over rushing,
28:47
Watson over receiving. I also wanted to mention you got
28:51
to go sign up for both Rhythm and Juice Reel right now because
28:54
you want to use it to your advantage tonight.
28:56
Rhythm has the great prop bets, which we're going to lean on all
28:58
year long game predictions. I will have an announcement
29:01
hopefully tomorrow involving Rhythm in the NFL season.
29:06
Juice Reel robo Jackson best bet picks arbitrage opportunities,
29:10
sharp mush system matches. Again, if you've been waiting
29:13
and you haven't done it yet, just click the custom links that
29:16
are located in the description of the pod for for both rhythm
29:20
and juice reel and you'll be signed up and ready to go.
29:22
But that about does it everybody welcome back NFL enjoy the
29:26
sweats here for tonight. Me and the wife actually just
29:29
signed up for hello for This is how you can tell the busy season
29:33
if you're in sports betting is here.
29:35
It's going to getting tougher for me to because I work from
29:38
home. My my wife goes in obviously
29:39
every day to work or most days, but it's usually on me to make
29:42
dinner. And we got a offer for
29:44
HelloFresh and I said, hey, let's just get HelloFresh.
29:48
I'm not a great chef, but I can follow the directions.
29:50
So we are starting HelloFresh to save time and I'll be making
29:54
that tonight for for Baltimore, Kansas City.
29:57
Why did I tell you that? I have no idea, just felt I
29:59
mentioned it. But anyway, guys have a
30:01
fantastic night. Good luck.
30:03
Welcome back NFL. We'll be back at it tomorrow,
30:06
which you know what tomorrow is. We had to wait a week or two
30:08
weeks because they didn't have any UFC sweats, but we do have
30:11
some sweats coming up on Saturday.
30:13
So hopefully I'll have a UFC biting system match for you on
30:17
tomorrow's pod. But either way, guys enjoy the
30:20
sweats. Welcome back football.
30:21
I'll see you tomorrow for episode 113 of the All Systems
30:25
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
30:28
Good luck everybody, let's enjoy some football.