Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Standstill?📉Crypto Market Update

Transcript

Crypto Standstill?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today, we're going to break down a little bit of
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: where the market is and whether or not it is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: stalling in a holding pattern, and I think it's going
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: to be a very interesting playout.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: Let's just get right to it.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I want to open up with a clip from andreessen
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Horowitz that talks about this position where we are now.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 0:15
  Speaker 3: I think we are in a little bit of a
• 0:17
  Speaker 3: holding pattern as an industry. There certainly feels like there's
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: a lot riding on the Clarity Act, which continues to
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  Speaker 3: be kind of a hot topic in DC and something
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: that the industry is very actively working on. If that
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: does pass, that should unlock a lot of positive momentum
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: for the space, but it's a little bit hard to
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: say when exactly that's going to happen.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: All right, So what you can see there is with
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: this analyst, they're looking at a couple of things, obviously
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: what we've seen with the SMP, but also just the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: issue of where crypto has started to fatigue, and it's
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: fatiguing right around mid seventies. On bitcoin, if you take
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: a look right now of where the S and P
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  Speaker 1: five hundred is, you can see an all time high
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: at seventy two hundred. This is after multiple all time
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: highs in the month of April. This of course burns
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: into or in May. Now as we're in May, this
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: of course burns into whether or not this market will
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: hold on through the month of May in a positive
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: green Let me know what you guys think, is this
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: still in play for an up month on the SMP.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: The things that will possibly dictate to this is this
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: right here, and that is what's happening in the MAC seven.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: You look at Vinia up nineteen percent, Microsoft eleven, Amazon,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: these kind of numbers. Just in this month of April,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: six trillion added to the US DOOC market. So continuing
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: to watch all of this take place is absolutely insane
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: going forward. One other thing that you consider is Apple
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: leading the way. Apple of course after earnings, calls and
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: a new CEO kind of laying the trap of a
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: new roadmap coming out has put Apple up four percent
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: after the recording stronger than expected Q one twenty twenty
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: six earnings. All of that playing well into where this
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: market is, and that puts everybody in the green zone
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: over on the fear and greed for trad fi. So
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: just keep a look at that. If you compare that
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: to what's going on in crypto. Look where we are, guys,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: This is absolutely insane holding it around forty five, and
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: that is very neutral position right now. I think we're
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: going to stay here for a while until we start
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: to see some movement in the overall market. One other
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: thing I want to hit on right here from Ted Pillows.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: If you guys don't follow him by the way, you should,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: he's Ted Pillows over on X for the audio. Guys.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Stock market is now being pumped using the same news
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: over and over. It's Friday again, so get ready for
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: another one. We're seeing an all time high slip right
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: back into the market. And of course the thing that
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: that concerns me with is where does inflation go from here? Well,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: we see these kind of stock market numbers, it tells
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  Speaker 1: me one thing. Inflation continues to hold strong and it
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: is one of the factors that the FED is going
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  Speaker 1: to have to deal with unless he gets a stronger
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: which would.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Be terrible number on declining jobs.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: That I think is the secret weapon for Kevin Walsh
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: is going to be job loss that will give him
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  Speaker 1: enough power to possibly sway the FED and move them
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  Speaker 1: into a cutting position. Now I want to go to
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the next clip here because this gets into what whether
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: or not Warsh has enough votes.
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: Take a look, and perhaps the bigger picture is this
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  Speaker 4: idea that there's even more descent on the board than
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  Speaker 4: there's ever been in the last thirty years. So I
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  Speaker 4: think Vin is walking into a unique situation.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: He is walking into a very interesting situation. I thought
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  Speaker 5: the three year cents not around the setting of policy,
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: but around the so called guidance the till the bias
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  Speaker 5: that I think is unprecedented in terms of three presidents
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  Speaker 5: saying we agree with the stance of policy, we don't
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  Speaker 5: like with the hint that you gave out there. And
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  Speaker 5: it shows the degree of concern about rising existing inflation
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: which is already sticky, and rising inflationary pressures. And it
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  Speaker 5: does say that incoming chair Worsh is going to have
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: to walk a fine line because it's pretty clear that
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  Speaker 5: he does not have the votes for any immediate action,
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  Speaker 5: certainly not lowering rates in the new term.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: All right, so you can see if Worsh can get
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: two things underway first, well three things, because I want
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: to talk about where Powell sets right now, because he
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: actually becomes a strategic chess piece in this game. But
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: if you look at the FED rate cut possibility right
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: now on polymarket, it is still skyrocketing right now at
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of no FED rate cuts in twenty twenty six.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think this is true, guys. I actually think.
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  Speaker 1: Maybe there is a backdoor here that is waiting to happen.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: And one of the things that I think will happen
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  Speaker 1: is this right here, Trump continues to put pressure on Powell.
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  Speaker 1: Powell is getting upset, and does Powell use this as
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: a bargaining chip to get an exodus out of the FED?
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  Speaker 1: Because remember, if he exits the FED governor position, Kevin
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: worsh might get a favorable another favorable vote vote within
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  Speaker 1: the FED, which could lay up for a potential FED
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  Speaker 1: rate cut.
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  Speaker 2: That is what Trump is lining up.
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  Speaker 1: I think this is a very interesting cat and mouse
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  Speaker 1: game right now between Powell and Trump.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: It's not over, guys, so keep it looking.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Here's the other thing that's drawing in the market right now,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: and that is the bitcoin ETFs two billion in April
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: for the highest.
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  Speaker 2: Monthly inflows in the first or in this year.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: This continues to blow me away because this is institutional capital,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: which is dragging in some retail. This is where it
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: gets a little cautious because I am very concerned about
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: how this market retraces. If it does, we see a
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: big move down. So just keep your eyes open on
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: all of that. Now, let me know what you guys think,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: because this is a factor I think that really starts
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to maybe play out in the next few months, leading
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: into whether or not we get clarity or not. We'll
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: talk about that in a second. Before we go there,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I want to go to this right here. It was
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: an interesting tweet by Andy and he says, watch what
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Sailor Stretch is doing in terms of that derivative and
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: that product. This is something unique because Bimind and Eth
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: tom Lee they don't have a product like that. Could
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: he is it time and the rumor mills are starting
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: to stir. Maybe Bitmind launches a Stretch like product with
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: performance in return on capitol. If you guys did not
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: see that video, go back and watch the Strategy CEO
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: video that we did last week with fong Lay. This
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: was unbelievable of how they've put this together. I'm not
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: approving it or endorsing it. What I'm saying is it's
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: very interesting in terms of a financial instrument and the
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: kind of tools that they did this. If eth gets
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: something like this, guys, this could get big and big quick.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Other things you got to look at is where DeFi
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: is going. This is a very big concern of mine.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Defive course ends its most hacked month in cryptoistory by
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: a number of incidents, and it's already started off in
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: May with another one. I'm a little concerned about where
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: DeFi is right now. I don't think it goes away,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: but I do think it does create a little bit
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: of a roadblock for new people coming in, and that's
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: a big concern because the growth is really going to
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: be dictated by new users. The other thing I want
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: to consider right now is where crypto is and that
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: it is this most most snooze topic on X right now,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: despite bitcoin having a positive April and you kind of
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: see it right there, Crypto politics, Iran, sports, business, guys,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: this is one of those times we're holding pattern maybe
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: a good thing.
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: Now.
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  Speaker 2: The question is is do we get a decline.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: We'll look at the charts a little bit later with
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Evan and hopefully get some insights on that other thing
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: that we're dealing with.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: Right now with clarity is this right here?
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  Speaker 1: And this one is a little bit more concerning because
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: remember we have seen a couple of things. Tom Tillis,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: who's come in, he has two I think red lines.
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  Speaker 1: One of course, was the issue with Kevin Warsh and
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: getting him approved, and that was in reference to dealing
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: with the charges against Chairpalell.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Those were dropworsh came through.
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  Speaker 1: The next thing, of course, Tom Tillis has is going
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: to be the ethics scenario that plays out with the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Trump family. That concerns me because if we get past
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Tom Tillis, now we have a new opponent, and that
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: is now Senator Kennedy coming out of Louisiana, who is
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: now holding support for the market structure legislation due to
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: party frustrations with the White House over a stall Senate
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: housing bill according to four different sources out there. So
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  Speaker 1: I don't know, does Kennedy become the real wrench in
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: this whole thing. As we get into this, there's a
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  Speaker 1: lot happening, guys. I want to go to one more
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  Speaker 1: clip here before I get going here. As you can
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: here in the background, the event is getting ready to
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: kick off as we record this.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Tim Scott breaks down where we are.
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis is now signaling that the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: long stalled Clarity Act is ready to move forward, suggesting
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  Speaker 1: that it is going to be headed toward.
• 8:45
  Speaker 6: A markup soon.
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  Speaker 2: Senator, what are your expectations.
• 8:48
  Speaker 6: Well, we're in the redisdone. If you like football, this
• 8:50
  Speaker 6: is the best time of the game. It's going really well.
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: Tillis and a couple of other votes on the Republican
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  Speaker 6: side on board. Now, I just want to have thirteen
• 8:59
  Speaker 6: of thirteen Republicans that it makes it easier for us
• 9:03
  Speaker 6: to have a bipartisan markup in maze my hope, and
• 9:07
  Speaker 6: then we'll get this thing to the floor of the
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: Senate Junior July.
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  Speaker 1: That's not necessarily a vote of confidence. And from what
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I heard on stage here at this event yesterday, including
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: from Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, is that Clarity may not
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: necessarily be fully needed. Now that's the first time I've
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: heard those kinds of statements. Is that they aren't as
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: concerned and they're actually looking at alternative paths. Does that
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: tell us that maybe Clarity doesn't have the ability to
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: get through.
• 9:41
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• 9:43
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• 9:46
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• 9:48
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