Latest / Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds / Hour 4 Live with Dave Bartoo from Pearl River Resort: CFB Win Total Time! We hit Ole Miss, LSU, and UGA!

Transcript

Hour 4 Live with Dave Bartoo from Pearl River Resort: CFB Win Total Time! We hit Ole Miss, LSU, and UGA! · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: W RKS Pickings. Jackson's All coming back from a Whiskey
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: sixty one lounge inside though bank Well Studio, And that
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: comes again, Mississippi's number one sports talk show, the out
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: of Bound Show, with Bound.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Streaming worldwide live on the Out of Ounds Radio app
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: and on your radio to.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Esd N one on point nine. What is that? What
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: is that? Both?
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Ye? Hey, hey, out of Bounds one oh five nine
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: the Zone e s PN. I'm your host bo Bounds
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Day Bar two with me. We're live on the property
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: of Pearl River Resort from Dancing Rabbit Golf Club.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Bar two.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: We've been on We've been on a tour, a culinary
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: tour and sec football in college foot.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: All tour for that matter.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: And uh, from Taste Italian Kitchen, wood fired pizzas to
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Ribbis at Kessler Prime to Saffron chowder and Ribbis and
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: strips at Philip M's Steakhouse. We're broadcasting from beautiful Dancing
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Rabbit Golf clubhouse and uh, probably gonna have to get
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Bar two a cheeseburger, don't you think Jackson from here
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: and or take him over to momm and M's and
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: get a cheeseburger and some of those famous black eyed
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: peas or he needs to have those wings because they're fried.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: And uh, Bar two doesn't get that that type deal.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: And that's right in he didn't get that in in Portland, Oregon.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Uh oh yeah, the oxtail. That's your big go to,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: isn't it.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Love it, love it all.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Right, So we'll see where we get Bar two for lunch.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: I wish we could go to like six places. But
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: and then he's flying out today. So it's been a
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: good week, my man. You know, he says, it's been
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: it's been awesome. It's been a whirlwind. Yeah, it has.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's just you know, the the red eyron
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: in through DFW getting here to Jackson. You know, Jackson
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: Jackson Airport still cracks me up, dude, dude.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: And here's why I love it. So when you were little,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: you grew up and you wanted to fly through big
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: airports because that was the thing. So through Atlanta, Chicago,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: New York. You know, now that I'm now the last
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: fifteen years of my life, I love Jackson, Charleston, South Carolina, Lexington, Kentucky, Louisville,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Kentucky airports.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, because you can get in and out in minutes.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Missoula, Montana.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: It's like Pensacola. I love that Panama City Beach Airport.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I love that air return in your car.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: It's like just ptr just pick a spot in the
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: parking lot up front. We'll find it right right. And
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: it's like, you know, he's walk walk through, walk through security.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: You know you show up fifteen minutes before the gate opens.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: It's like cool, all right.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: The out of Bound Show ESPN one oh five nine.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: The Zone is brought to you by the MSU Bagley
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• 4:42
  Speaker 2: bo bounds bar two. It's like bounds in bar two.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: You know what I'm saying, Bar two and bounds that
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: could be that could be a morning drive that that
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: kind of rings lunch today brought to you by the
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: Let's go Shrimp po boy at Martin's and Livingston or
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: you can go Wings and stell Arty. That's a win
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: and feels like Friday and it's not. But that's okay,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: all right, Bar two. Are we doing sports betting?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: We can do that, boss, all right? Cool.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: I'm still looking for Louisville plus seven, Okay, right, because
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna put my money where my mouth is right
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: talking about coaches.
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  Speaker 1: I love Jeff, I love Jeff brom right, and that
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: l s U.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: I left host l s U, no host LSU Week three.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: You can't tell me Ole miss isn't looking at Week
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: three right now?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Right? You can't, right? And I believe Jeff Brown is
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: one of the top twenty head coaches in college football.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: Ole miss is going to have a huge talent edge.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: We talked about this yesterday. Old Miss.
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: Between their transfer portal and high school recruiting, they've turned
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: themselves into a top ten recruiter, you know, peak Pete Golding.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: I think the pressure, I think the pressure is massively
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: on him, not only because he is succeeding Lane Kiffin.
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  Speaker 3: He legitimately has as much or more talent one through
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: one through eighty five as Lane ever had.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 3: So, I mean, if you're a ole Miss fan less
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: than a playoff, you're you're burning a couch, right right.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, you spend all this money and time to
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: build up yourself into a top ten recruiter and all
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: of a sudden boom, you lose Lane. But the talent
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: is still there, right right? And yeah, you know, it's
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: just just I feel that Ole missus is going to
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: win that game against LSU, but or against Louisville. But
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: I do believe that that LSU home game is a major, major,
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: major mental factor in weeks one through four. They're gonna
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: that LSU That is gonna be like a super Bowl. Yeah, right,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: So you overlook Louisville, Jeff get you. Worst case scenarios
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: you overlook and Jeff get you. Now you're still focused
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: on LSU and somehow leeen pulls that out and now
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: you're flat against Florida.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Right, you got to avoid that, right, you know, Golding,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: pe Golding and Trinidad have to avoid.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: That's it literally is It's just I know it's a cliche,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: but it is like Week one, are we are?
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Oh? And oh?
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: So what you're saying day bar two on the Out
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: of Bound Show brought to you by Farm Bureau Insurance,
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: bundle your auto and home and save with your local
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Farm Bureau Insurance agent. What you're saying is Ole Miss
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: has top ten talent and college football Playoff caliber talent,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: and they have more talent than Louisville. But brom is
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: a really good head coach who has over ten years experience,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: and if you can find a line that gives you
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: you feel like Old Miss will win. But if you
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  Speaker 2: get seven points, you're taking.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: Louisville, Yes, okay, yeah, and I'll probably take them at
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: six and a half, just to you know, put my
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: money where my mouth is kind of bad, right, but
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: you know, I really feel one of the things I
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: do like looking at his trap games because I can't
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: quantify emotion. I can't quantify what everybody's thinking about LSU, right,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: you know, and then I can't quantify when they win
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: and lose, what happens the next week, the bounce back,
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: so to me, September is a just one big massive
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: trap for ole Miss, one big massive trap game one.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: It's just a difference.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: They've They've had the best schedule in the SEC the
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: last couple of years. They did a great job with
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: their non con They didn't pull anybody tough Wake Forest
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: two years ago, Washington State last year, This schedule this
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: year with the new head coach, even though they are
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: really talented, it's just a totally different ballgame.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Louisville neutral.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Field against a good head coach and brom LSU at
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: home against Lane Kiffin, who's top ten head coach, and
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: then at Florida coming off that big emotional, physical game
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: of whatever. Even if you win it, coming out of
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: that game, you gotta go to Gainsville and play. We
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: don't know how good Florida will be, but it sure
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: sounds like they're going to be physical and pretty damn good.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: On defense with Brad White as DC and John summerw
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: as a defensive specialist as their head coach.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Right, you know, and that's what we'd expect.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: But again I look at the full trap that is
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: September for Old miss whereas Mississippi State. We talked about it.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: This is a lot of opportunity. You're playing three teams.
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  Speaker 3: None of them are top twenty recruiters, no not elite
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  Speaker 3: talent there, so this is a great time to go.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: More on the other side.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Bounds in Bar two on the out of Bounds Show
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: ESPN one five nine Zeno. And here we go the
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: out of Bound Show ESPN one oh five nine. The
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Zone brought to you by your next top shelf Margarito
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• 11:14
  Speaker 2: bounds Day Bar two with your ESPN one oh five
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: nine to the zone. All right, we're gonna go total
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: wins through a few teams here, start with the Ole
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: miss Rebels or Mississippi State Mississippi State. All right, we're
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: gonna go total wins. Let's talk a little sports betting.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: It's not a Better Day or Afternoon of College Football
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: or NFL Vegas style sports book inside the Golden Moon,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: the Timeout Sports Lounge on the property of Pearl River Resort.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go through MSU.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: Okay, and just to let everybody know is when I'm
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: projecting these I'm using coach effect, Okay, what they have
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: done relative to their talent as a head coach over
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: their career. Okay, and that is relative to the guys
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: that they're facing as well. So we'll you know, like
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: a Pete Golding has no coach effect, so we're not
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: going to be able to profile or yes, maybe exactly
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: the same sense. But the guys he's playing, like when
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: he plays in the Egg Bowl, he's going to be
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: playing Jeff Levy, who has a minus two point five
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: to seven game coach effect on his career. Okay, So
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: but on with with Mississippi State. So right now, the
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: line I have, the market line I have is four
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: and a half four and a half wins, okay, and
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: the numbers say average coaching from twenty twenty five, this
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: is a five point four win season for Mississippi State.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: Say so, so everybody listen to keep that in mind,
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: average head coaching should be at five and a half wins.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: So if if we get to six and six here
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: at State, that is above average coaching wins at six
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: and six. But because he is a negative coach effect
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: for his career, the projected, the mathematical projection for him
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: is four point six wins. So the most likely outcome
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: for Mississippi State right now in the numbers based on
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: the schedule, the coaches they are facing, and Jeff's first
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: two years most likely twenty seven percent four and eight,
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: twenty six percent five and seven. And we talked about
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: five and seven this year is better than five and
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: seven last year.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, but we really.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: I got him over the four point six. Okay, I
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: got him going five and seven.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: You gotta go.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Okay, And there is a clear path to six and
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: six with the schedule that you pull.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: There there is, and that is the third most likely
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: outcome for him at seventeen percent is six and six.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Okay. Okay.
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: So you look at this kind of like a triangle.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: Your top two projections are four and eight and five
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: and seven, and in that six and six. Look in
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: that six and six, there has got to be there,
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: probably has to be a signature winning there somewhere his
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: first big win.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Well, he hasn't won an SEC home game.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: And he has Vanderbilt. Yep, well first Missouri, but he
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: has Missouri, Vanderbilt and Auburn at home. Right, None of
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: those teams are that good.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: No, Vanderbilt lost their their best quarterback, right, the best
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: player of their probably existence, right, you know, And and
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: Auburn new offensive courd Inter new staff at home.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: And the Missouri right, and the.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: Missouri which is not a which is you know, top
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: twenty five recruiter, you know, I mean.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: But they're not top ten.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: No, No, it's a bottom half of the pack of
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: the SEC.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: They're all at home, right, you got to take advantage
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: of the home schedule when when you're playing teams like that.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: So yeah, in terms of the market line, I'm not
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: betting Mississippi State. You say you take the over four
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: and a half, that means four and eight beat you.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: If I'm betting this, I'm willing.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I'll take five and seven, right, I bet one hundred
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: on that. Yeah, Okay, cool, Now, one one little nugget.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Then I can't believe I just said I'd bet on
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Jeff Levy. Now, well anyway, right, and whether it's Jeffrey,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I do you need to go get a Tito's bloody Mary.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I don't like betting on minus coaches. Yeah, no, you
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: said that and you stayed, you said that for years.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: Right, don't bet on negative coaches because well they are negative, right,
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: they they've let you down. So even if he hits
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: five and seven and six and six, I don't see
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: it as a good bet.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Now, I will.
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: Say, if you can buy it down, if you can
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: get over under four. And this is something I want
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: to talk to everybody about right now that's listening. Is
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: that half point that four and a half to four.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: Think about it. Four and eight beat you at over
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: four and a half. If you're at four, maybe you're
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: at minus one fifty instead of minus one ten.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: But now he's got to go three and nine to
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: beat you. That's a big difference for three nine, four and.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Eight, no question. Right.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: So so if you're looking at these things, if you
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: have the opportunity, especially like on a draft Kings or
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: a fan duel, even maybe the time out lounge is
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: if you can if there's moving numbers that you can
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: pay more for in the juice in.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Order to get a better number to cover your right. Okay.
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: One final nugget on Jeff the play caller. Okay, Jeff
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: Levy the play caller. And so I've asked the system
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: to tell me what are some tendencies.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Of these guys. Okay.
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: So Jeff is very very run heavy in certain situations. Okay,
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: And specifically when he's at the goal line less than
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: five yards any down distance is first, second, third, or
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: fourth and goal less than five, he runs it seventy
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: seven percent of the time. So third and short seventy
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: five percent of the time. Red zone first downs he
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: runs it seventy six percent of the time. So he
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: is very very run heavy in short yarded situations. In
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: one score game though it flips third and long, third
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: and seven, he ran it only nineteen percent of the time.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: Converted none of them.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Oh wow, zero conversions.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: He ran it twenty four percent of the time, and
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: on third and long over ten yards converted none of them.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: So the rushing game outside of third and six totally
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: fell apart, didn't work. Okay, But the past game And
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: this is why I say I'm not.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Sure how good Blake was Blake shaping for our listeners. Right,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: third and seven, now, Blake Scott third and seven to
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: third and ten. He converted that throwing the ball only
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: thirty four percent of the time.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Good lord, And when thirty four percent right?
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: And when you got him into third and long in
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: a close game, So third and eleven or more shape
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: and only converted eight percent of those throws? You ain't eighter.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: You want to know why you go one and fifteen?
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Try going eight percent on third and long in the
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: sec in a tight ball game.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: So I think with Jeff though, is from a predictability standpoint,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: you want to in those in those short runs, those
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: short downs first, second, and third down, load the box
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: on them and try to force the pass. At least
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: that's based on twenty four and twenty five numbers.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Wow, did you hear Jackson? All right?
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Dave bar two on the Out of Bound show, he
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: loved the wood fired pizza. On a positive note as well,
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: he loved the wood fired pizza.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: And on fourth down, fourth and three or more, he
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: is one hundred percent pass fourth and one or two.
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: He only passed at one time last year. So his
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: line in the sand. When it's fourth down, fourth and three,
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: pin your ears back. You know you play play the
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: pass fourth and one, fourth and two load the box.
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: Only passed at one time last year.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, and maybe because he didn't trust his quarterback.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: Jeff Levy's numbers. Next coming up next, Oh miss win
• 19:05
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  Speaker 2: He just got one of the breakfast sandwiches from Dancing
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: Rabbit Golf Club. I've told you about him for years.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: They're incredible. Nothing like a breakfast biscuit.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: It was bacon or sausage. What can I give both?
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Exactly jeez, and they'll do that for you with the Tito's,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: Bloody Mary or an ice cole michelob Ultra before you
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: get ready to play the Azaleas or the Oaks. At
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Dancing Rabbit Golf Club. What's up, good morning. We just
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: did the win total for Mississippi State. The highest percentage
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: came in at over under four point six wins. I
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: took the over, I knowing that crazy, not by much.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: I mean I got them going five and seven, six
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: and six. There's a clear, clear path if they've done
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: what they needed to do this offseason, that should not
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: be too too difficult. With home games against Vanderbilt, Missouri,
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: home conference games against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Auburn and Tennessee
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Tech and Lomanroe. I mean that's five home I mean
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: that's for what we are today, and you're gonna draw
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: a tough schedule, regardless of who you are in the league,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: for what.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: The SEC is today.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: If you have Loman Roe, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Auburn
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: at home and two road games against teams that are
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: not that good and both of them may beat you,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: but at Minnesota and at South Carolina, the path to
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: six and six should just not be. It shouldn't be dawning.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: It may be a little challenging, but it shouldn't be.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's going three and six in the league.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: That's going three and six in the league. We're not
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: asking them to go four and five, and we're not
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: asking them to go five and four, which is a
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: way different to you. One game in football is okay,
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: six and six. The path is there. Now we're gonna
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: go all Miss. So Dave bar two Matrix Analytical on
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the out of bounds show ESPN one oh five nine
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: The Zone brought to you by Total Transportation of Mississippi,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: offering nationwide and regional routes from a great company. Go
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: to total ms dot com to apply today Total wins
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: for Old Miss twenty twenty six.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: The Rebels, Like we just talked about, September is big. Yeah,
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: I think September is emotionally huge for the rebels. Now,
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: I know that the projections here don't take into account emotion,
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: but I just I love digging into the schedule and
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: trying to find the emotional niches that are in there.
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: Right and Louisville, I don't know how much y'all talk
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: about Louisville relative to the power of Old Miss. But
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: I think it could be very underrated, right in terms
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: of how focused is the team for Louisville, you know, Right,
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: but we have we got a new head coach in
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: Pete Colding, Right, so we got no coach effect.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: He could be good, he could be bad, he could
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: be Okay, he could be Steve Sarky's in an average, right,
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: you know.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: But what we do know is year one for a
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: new head coach.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: This applies to Pete, This applies to summer all at Florida, right,
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: this applies to Stein at Kentucky. On average, they are
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: going to lose one point one more games than expected,
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: just on average being a first year rookie head coach. Okay,
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: so the market line on Ole Miss is and I
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: haven't looked up that recently, but this is as of
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago, was over and under seven
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: and a half wins for a top ten recruiter.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Wow. Right, the first thing, I'm just like, what am
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: I missing? Right?
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: We get a new quarterback, No, Trinidad's coming back and
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: arguably one of the best Saturday bag carriers in the
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: entire country, no question. In fact, I don't even think
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: it's arguably he is.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Oh, I don't think it is either. He was phenomenal
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: last year.
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: He is I think the two best in the SEC
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: for carrying bags on Saturday proven so far Trinidad Sam
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Sam Levet. Ok Right, okay, so we got So we're
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: starting with seven and a half wins, and it says
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: average coaching is seven point eight. Okay, So an average
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: head coach should go eight and four. Okay, right, but
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: we have a rookie head coach, so it's automatic minus
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: one game, got it right, So the projection goes to
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: seven point four wins. So the most likely outcome it's
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: saying is seven and five.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, but that's only twenty two percent.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: It's a really broad projection here, because at twenty one
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: percent it's eight and four. At nine and three, we're
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: at nineteen percent. So there's a huge range for old
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: miss I am. That is wow, right, it is, and
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: so I think.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: But it's it's also because of the unknown. Yeah, right.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Pete Golding is walking into a great situation with top
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: ten talent and a phenomenal quarterback, so all those things
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: are like everything that you want. So he's walking in
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: with the hand of ases. The question is because he's
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: a new head coach and because of three of their
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: first four games, could be are are going to be challenging?
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: You just don't know.
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think September is he could be two and two,
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: he could be he could be four and oh he
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: could be one and three and four and oh right,
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: I mean there is a massive gap here, and I
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: know mo Miss fan listening and going there, there's no
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: ways going one in three?
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Look, are you kidding me?
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: You overlook Jeff Brom And we've seen plenty of people
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: overlook Jeff Brom.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: In the Big Ten and the ACC. Okay, he took.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Perdue, which is one of the bottom ten college football
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: programs in the country the last forty to fifty years.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: He took Perdue to the Big Ten championship game pre
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: NL pre n IL.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, I think he is a wonderful
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: head coach. You can't overlook him. And if ole Miss
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: does boom, that might be a loss. Okay, right, it's
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: a It's a six and a half point spread, right.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: So you got him at seven point four? Yeah, I
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: got the system has him at seven point four. One
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: game so really on that, I think I go over. Yeah,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I think he goes eight and four.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: I'm not betting on a top ten recruiter going less
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: than seven and five.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I'm with you can't. I gotta go eight and four. Right.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: There's some tough spots from the schedule.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: Though, there there, there is, and but realistically this should
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: be a top twenty five team.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Bear enough, I agree.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: You look at their defensive line, good lord, you look
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: at Trinidad and Key one, I mean their interior offensive line.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I love.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: We'll see what they do at the tackle position. But
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: bar two, they got some studs on defense. Perkins is amazing,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: Cam Franklin, I mean, they've got other players. Echo, They've
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: got really good football players.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: You're a top ten recruiter and they you have dudes,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: They have dudes, They got dudes. Yeah, right yeah.
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: And if they start four and oh bam, got to
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: be a playoff team, right, I mean.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Just got to be a playoff good lord, if they
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: start four and oh yeah, you're talking about cooking. Yeah,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: I really think. So okay, keep going on. I like
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: over on that. Okay, I'll go over. I'll put one
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: hundred on the over right now, John David Baker.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Okay, let's see if we got any tendencies on John David.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: But we are the out of Bound Show ESPN one
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: oh five nine The Zone. We're brought to you by
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Grit Fitness and Training Facility, Lakeland Drive, Flowwood. J. Powell
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: is the new director of baseball Operations. They got monthly
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: memberships too because they got all these rooms and beautiful
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: areas to work out and all kinds of classes that
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: they offer indoor outdoor turf, indoor batting cages and pitching
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: mounds Grit Fitness and Training Bartoon.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: So here here's my defensive coordinator playbook, okay, on John
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: David Baker based on what he did in twenty twenty five.
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: Now this is going to totally change because he has Trinidad.
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: Trinidad might be a ball ad. Live a lot of this, sure,
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: but get a two score lead. Once he's up in
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: the fourth quarter, he takes his foot off the gas
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: we talked about esterday. Lane does not. He goes on
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: one hundred percent run with a eight to fourteen point lead. Okay,
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: So stack the box, get him to throw fourth and
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: one all run fourth and three eighty two percent pass.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: So just basically like Jeff Levy, right, and so that
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: trend is there, but you really want to get him
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: behind schedule. His third and long runs only convert at
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: thirty three percent, so you really want to try to
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: take the run away from him. Sequencing after a run
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: he runs it sixty three percent of the time.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Again, okay, he's high on sequencing. Run run it again, right.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: And so and then when he's backed up inside his
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: own ten, he runs it seventy seven percent of the time.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: So just kind of get out of their punt. Yeah,
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: I'll hope to get better filled position next time, mate. Yeah,
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: talking John David Baker. Oh, see at Ole miss.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: Yep and and third medium it says third medium is exploited,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: only runs twenty five percent on third and four, five
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: and six, but the runs convert at one hundred percent rate. Wow, right,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: So defend the pass, but the draws coming, and the
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: draws are usually really really effective. If John Baker's listening,
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: I'd maybe look at running the ball more on third
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: and medium because whatever you have designed and however you're
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: coaching it, you are doing a really good job with that.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: Okay, all right, So Ole Miss at seven point four
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: total winds. I'm going over. Bartwo's going over, Yes, all right,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Levy Levy at four point six wins, I'm going over.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: And bar two, I can't remember the pass and I
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: ain't betting on that. Yeah, I don't feel good about that, right,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: you know?
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: And even a little bit with Golding is I said,
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: we don't put money on negative. That's right, guys, that's right,
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: that makes sense. But Pete's right there. We don't put
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: money on guys. We don't know nothing about, right, but
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: we do know the talent is there. We do know
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: the returning quarterback is there. And I think it's seven
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: and a half. Oh dude, And this is one. You
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: give me seven where Ole Miss has to beat me.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: I don't care what it is. Minus one fifty, minus
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: one sixty, minus one seventy six and six beats me
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: seven and seven and five gets me a tie and
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: I get my money back. Right, I'll bet that all
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: day long. I got top ten, top fifteen recruiter.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: Okay, you have to, Okay, Ole Miss has top ten talent,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: and we'll see what Pete Golden can do in year
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: one as the head coach. Day Bar two on the
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: out of bounds show.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: I'm your host.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: Bo Bound Straight Funk is with us. Jackson Meadows has
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: been carrying us all week. Thank god, because we've been
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: bouncing around. It's been so much fun, a whirlwin. We've
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: had a great time and we've created some great content
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: for you for you to consume on all the SEC
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: teams we're going on seven or eight hours. You can
• 32:02
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• 32:09
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• 32:14
  Speaker 1: All right, do we want to go to LSU? We
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: can hit LSU right now.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: Okay, we're good, all right, So Lane train is at LSU.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss play LSU. We know
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: that Ole Miss LSU is the game of September in
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: college football. It looks like even trumping Ohio State at
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Texas MSU will go to LSU later in the year,
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: they'll get beat. But what do you think about LSU
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: total wins for Lane year one?
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Well, okay, this is me personally, Okay, this is me
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: not looking at the computer right now, this is just
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: me talking.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: I know we have a top five recruiter historically. Okay, Okay,
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: we have a quarterback that has carried the bags on
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: Saturdays for two years and has pulled out some tight
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: games on his own with a terrible OC. Marcus Arroyo
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: Arizona State is not good. So I have a quarterback
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: that I really really like. I have a defensive coordinator
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: in Baker that is coming back that posted the thirteenth
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: best scoring efficiency in the country last year.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: That is wicked.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: And I got Lane Kiffen, who turns quarterbacks into draft
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: picks right right, whether they're successful.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: In the NFL or not, they get drafted right right,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: they get drafted.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: Matt Carrall drafted third round and Jackson Dart drafted first round.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: And if Chandlers would have come out, he was drafted.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: He's drafted, and he stared in the first round in
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: the in the face right right.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: So it's I love everything about it. And then you
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: look at Lane in terms of his coach effect. Okay,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: over the last few years when he arrived at Florida
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: Atlantic plus two games second year, minus one game, plus
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: two plus a half, plus plus three plus one plus
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: three plus one plus three last year, I mean this
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: is he is a monster. Since he went to Florida
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: Atlantic and he's only had one down year. But the
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: average new head coach that goes from P four to
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: P four is minus one point three games under expectations.
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: That's the average right off the bat. Now that is
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: the last sixteen years. So we got pre and post
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: nil in there. So I have a really hard time
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: with this the numbers. Going back to the numbers. Now,
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: going back to the computer, it says, adjust him down
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: minus one point three to one games, that would be
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: his worst coach effect in the last eight years, right,
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: So I don't want to adjust it that far. It says,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: the average coach in America wins eight and a half
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: games with this schedule. In talent average Lane's not average, no,
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: but he is transitioning Ole Miss to LSU. That's you're
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: variable to me. So the line right now is amazing.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: When I saw it come out eight and a half,
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: I was like, really, I bet that over in a hartbeat, right,
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: But then you factor in minus a game and a
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: half for the transition. It says the most likely outcome
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: for him is eight and four. Okay, all right, right,
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: but nine and three twenty three percent. Eight and four
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: is twenty five percent, okay, right, yeah, so we're push So.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: The it's it's saying eight and four and nine and
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: three are your two numbers, and the market lines at
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: eight and a half, right, so we're just take nine
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: and three.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: I think you and I are both going over. We
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: are one hundred percent going over if we can buy
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: it down to over under eight. Sure, if he's going
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: seven and five, they're gonna burn every couch in the state.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Oh, there's no doubt, no doubt. And I'm here for
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: that too. I mean, oh yeah.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: When fan base is any fan base in the SEC meltsdown,
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm here for it.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: Well, that's that's that's that's part of the allure. That's right,
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: is everybody's hoping for twelve and oh right, and and
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: then again of defeat is as wonderful as the joy
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: of championships. Right so, and and as a state fan,
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: I'm sure misery loves company right now, Well, you.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: Know, I mean it's not it's night and day now,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: you know, they they went back and forth for years
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: and now pull miss has has pulled away.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Big time.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: So all right, so I do like the bet because
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: we're betting on a positive. Yeah, we're betting on a
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: positive coach effect. Guy I I man I, I have
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: a hard time swallowing that he is going to be
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: one point three games under expectations with a quarterback of
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: his choice and a returning defensive coordinator. You know, for me,
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: I think, all, let's use a national championship contender. But
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: the numbers say year one. You're wrong, Dave, you are
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: absolutely good. So he does it.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: It'll be an incredible first year in Baton Rouge if
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: he can go ten and two and take them to
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: the college football playoff.
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and then and then once they get there
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: nine and three. Then once they get there, all bets
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: are off, right because you who knows what kind of
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: damage they can do at that point if they're healthy.
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: That right, because look at Miami. Miami is healthy, got
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: in there at ten and two. They have dudes, and
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: let's use got dudes. If you got dudes and everybody's healthy,
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: you can do some damage. And Lane man Lane in
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: the playoffs, he loves to grind it out.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: He's a runner, right. He will beat you.
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: To death and then put the put down the gas
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter and just choke you out.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: We have about six minutes. I think we've got time
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: to do one more team.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Okay, who you like? Do you think? Do you want
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: to go Bama or Georgia. I'll go either way. I
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: mean they're huge names. Let's let's let's let you know something.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Let's just uh, let's go with Georgia. Okay, just because look,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Kirby's all.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: Misplace them and show and Georgia's Bama to So in fact,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: Georgia's two brutal road games are at Bama and at Ole,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: miss George's two.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: At Bama at oh.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Now their first five games they should be five and
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: zero going into Bama and healthy and healthy. I mean,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: is it is a nice drawl before going Tuscaloosa.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: So I'll let you have the stage. Georgia.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Total we're talking sports betting total wins, brought to you
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: by Pearl River Resort.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: What do you have?
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: So Kirby smart his career coach effect career okay, is
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: plus two point three eight games a year.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Okay, So since.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: Twenty ten, everybody with more than three seasons of experience
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: in terms of coach effect, this isn't coach ranking folks.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: Coach effect, he is ninth out of two hundred and
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: seventy two currently all all active head coaches in college football.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: He is eleventh out of one hundred and nineteen in
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: coach effect.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: Okay, okay, that includes guys with one in two years
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: of experience like Chesney who came from James Madison's a
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: huge number. Okay, his career war wins above replacement, Okay,
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: save it is number one since twenty ten. Kirby is
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: number four since twenty ten, number two Dabbo understandably, and
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: then Kirby and Ryan Day are right.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: There side by side. Okay, those are your big guns. Okay, right,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: So Kirby is nothing but flat out awesome. He is
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: just awesome. His worst year minus one game coach effect.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: That's his worst year. That may have been year one.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: It would actually let's see here, sixteen. I have all
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: of his seasons broke, fully broken down, and then he
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: got it was year it was year one.
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: He went seven and five. Okay, we don't count bowl games.
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: Bowl games are stupid, Okay, Okay, well count playoff games
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: because those are real. Okay, we don't count bowl games.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: So seven and five, but that was still only minus
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: one game. Very next year, twenty seventeen.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Twelve and two. What a turnaround plus three games? Right,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: what a turnaround.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: Twelve and two, eleven and two, eleven and two, eight
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: and two and twenty twenty still, which was COVID right.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: His his, his, which was awesome.
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: Actually, yeah, and so ten conferences, you know, plus two
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: plus two plus three. I mean this guy is inconsistent
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: as it gets.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Okay, So at Bama at ole Miss are the two
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: brutal games for Georgia this year.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right.
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: The market line is at nine point five. It says
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: an average coach wins nine point four games.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going ten and two. I think he's in the projection.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: He can drop Ole Miss and Bama or one of
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: the other and mess around one more time and still
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: get in.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: The computer doesn't mess around with twelve and oh much, Okay,
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: it says a fourteen chance at twelve and aho.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: Wow, that's a high number. It is a.
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: It is actually saying his most likely record is eleven
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: and one. Damn dude, don't just don't don't bet against
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: him five and oh don't going into Bama.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: Right, The only way you beat Kirby Smart, The only
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: way you beat Kirby Smart and ole Miss beat him
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: last year.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: Right is ole Miss had a higher peak game control
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: in that game, and they beat him. Kirby is one
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: and fourteen when he doesn't have peak game control. Okay,
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: but that's only fifteen games in his whole career, gotcha.
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: So if he if he gets up on you and
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: with with MO and hits peak momentum and peak game controlling,
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: you can't match it. He is one hundred and six
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: and five And when he doesn't get there, when you
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: can control the game at a higher point than he can,
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: he is one in fourteen. That's his entire career.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: And Pete Golding, Trinidad Chambliss and Charlie Twiss beat him
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: in New Orleans in the quarterfinal game well Lane.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: When he has peak game control, he is sixty one
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: and one sixty one in one.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: Right Dabbo before twenty twenty one was one hundred and
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: ten and one when he had peak game control. They
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: manufacture it. That's the key, is being able to manufacture
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: peak momentum game control. That affects it affects the NFL
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: equally too. Kyle Shanahan Niners. When he doesn't have peak
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: game control, he is one in twenty one. He can't
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: come back when he's down. It's just it's just amazing
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: how much momentum game control absolutely impacts every single one
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: of these games. Kirby is only behind Saban. Saban generated
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: peak game control eighty eight percent of the time. Kirby
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: is at eighty two. Kirby is the number one game
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: control generator actively in college football. And I got him
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: going eleven and one or the number. The market number
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: is at nine and a half. I will agree with
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: the computer. Don't bet against Kirby going under nine and
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: a half. I'm saying eleven and one, ten and two
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: at the worst. And they're going to go in the playoffs.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: All right, we may keep it going. We are the
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Out of Bound Show.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: We're brought to you by the Mississippi State University College
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: of Business. Dean Scott Graw has all the momentum. He
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: spent well over ten years in the private sector, which
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: is what I want in a college of business. Dean
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: visit Business dot ms State dot edu. The College of
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: Business students at Mississippi State University competed on the West
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Coast and East Coast and won in student competitions this
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: past year that matters, and that's what he wants to do.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: He's a former Power for student athlete at Iowa State.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: Dean Scott Graw is doing extraordinary things inside the MSU
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: College of Business Business dot ms state dot edu