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MMA DFS - UFC 320 | 10/02/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear. We lift on. Oh baby, we're back.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Plenty of fights on the docket. I think it's like
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: eight weeks in a row or something. I think all
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the way till Thanksgiving. But man, we got a great
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: one this week. UFC three twenty pay per view Season
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: six pm Eastern at the T Mobile Arena. Fourteen fights.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get too excited. I almost expect a
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: drop out by now. It's tilting, but hey, my fingers
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: are still crossed. Even if we went to thirteen. Good,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: We're gonna break it down like it's all fourteen. Like
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: we have now Takedown in here, yscent and they appreciate
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: everyone hanging out. Ben's always the first one. Why as
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: sent Ben in here lately? The og Ben Jizzy. Hope
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: you're doing well. You're always used to be in here.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: First takedown got it today paid the main event. We
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: will definitely talk about that. Most definitely viable. We do
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: have two five round fights, not only an Kalaia Prayer
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: but also Morab and sanhe Gan. Two belts on the line.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Fourteen fights, Big Marley, you can't beat it? How you doing?
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm good? Two title fights.
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: Love to see it maybe maybe have a hot take
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: or two once we get there. But I think it's
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: gonna be a solid fight card, especially if we can
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: keep all fourteen. If we do lose one, I think
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: it would be a TEBA fight anyways. But yeah, I
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: mean looking forward to fourteen fight card with two five
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: round fights.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun. We appreciate
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: everyone hanging out live and on playback. Man, you're watching live,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: you're watching us. There's football on, there's MLB playoffs, Yankees,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, a lot of good sports right now. Talking
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: about all those. You can see at chip in Nation, NFL,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: college football, PGA, MLB, MMA, NASCAR, you name it, we
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: got it. NBA will be here before you know it.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Look at that little code if you look at the
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: top of the thing, five days for nineteen bucks using
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the code chip nineteen. If you haven't tried to s out,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: there is absolutely no better deal nineteen dollars. I mean
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: not much in the world you can get for nineteen
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: dollars nowadays. Five days at chip Nation with so many
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: sports going on, prizes are absolutely massive. We would love
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: to have you at the Nation. We do it weekly, monthly,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: six month options as well. Hey, you know what, I'll
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: take that, YS and I will take that they're five percent.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I think I had nine percent, So gotta get lucky
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: if one of those teams get on there. But yeah,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I will be tuning into the second half of the game.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I will watch the end of Baseball for sure. I'm
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: locked in on this fourteen fight card, though we already
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: had bonkers I mean huge for Survivor as well. No
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: rams over here. Rams about thirty percent on Splash, so
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: a lot to cheer four. But hey, we're locked into
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: this car, Big Marley, give me some broad slate overview
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: for this fourteen fight car before we go bottom the top.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: Well, I'm not really not sure. It's kind of another
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: first look for me. I do think that if the
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: Atiba fight goes, it's gonna he's gonna be the first
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: or second most popular. You're gonna have Morob up there
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: that's gonna be crazy popular as well.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: And then the main event.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to talking to you about it, but
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: I do think it's gonna be a lower on main
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: event than we usually get.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: And then aside from those three, I kind of think
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: that we can spread around all the others. I don't
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: see anyone else getting too chucky in that other range.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: So a lot of the most ownership going to Morob
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: and Atiba.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and even at Tiva like he's ninety eight hundred
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: bucks and a Carbo Morob's ninety three hundred. The DFS
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: got plenty of finishes expected. You just go down the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: list minus one forty minus two eighty five minus two
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: twenty minus four hundred minus one ten minus two thirty
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: and then this fight down here. We do not have
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: any inside the distance prop yet the only probably have
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: under one and a half minus six hundred. So this
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: fight also so it was Atiba Asi Diaz A. Tiva
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: was already priced at ninety eight hundred, Diez was sixty
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: four hundred. They just had to add in fines. This fight,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: I think is gonna be below Pifer Edmund though it's
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of these like the fifth sixth fight
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: to go there. So again the order doesn't matter because
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: it got canceled when I put everything in initially on Monday.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: It is a lot easier to just add it at
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the bottom. But do know this fight will be up here.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: It means absolutely nothing in terms of DFS. Yeah, my
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: broad slide just quick. Morob's a DFS goat. He's gonna
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: be very high home. But he keeps getting the job done.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Even with this fight plus two to fifty to finish,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Like you almost don't want that fight to finish. It's
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: hard for me to see Corey not getting there in
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: a win. It's hard for me to see Morob not
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: getting in there in a win. A thousandly building a
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: handful of teams twenty or less. I think I'm making
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: that rule one fifty. You can't see other people out
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: score Morob, possibly like a one oh five. But man,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Morob's been so so good. Main event can definitely fade it.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: You think people will see that the same. Other than that, Yeah,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: we'll just go fight by fights and mix a match again.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Preliminary ownership taking a look at it. One fighter above
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: fifty percent, that of course is Morob. Only one other
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: fighter north to forty percent and we have and that's Atiba.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: And at the end of the day, if he came
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: in like thirty six percent, I wouldn't be shocked. And again,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: a lot of it has to do it. Just ninety
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: eight hundred is a big boy price. If you want Morob,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: if you want other big favorites. Plenty of live dogs
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: on this card though, where you can make the ninety
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: eight hundred work. It's a perfect intro to the first
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: fight of the night. Again not the first, but how
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: we have it. Bottom the top Ativa Gattier minus eighteen hundred,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Tristan Vines plus nine hundred. I said under one and
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: a half was minus six hundred, which it was when
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I looked earlier, open minus two fifty. Now it's minus
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: nine hundred, Big Marley, We're gonna see some wild inside
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the distance prop minus what four hundred? Minus five hundred
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Gottier in round one? Like what do you need before
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I throw to you? This reminds me of a bo
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Nick one in July of twenty twenty three. It was
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: a pay per view card. I believe there was fourteen fights.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: He was fighting, who's that short? Bell Woodbird, bell Woodbird, massive,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: massive favorite? Was he very juice in round one? Etc?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: But we talked it was like, you almost need the
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: first minute bonus. I'm kind of viewing Gadie is the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: same here, like he finishes his fight in the first round,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: but it's not round one unless you're geting a couple knockdowns,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and man, when he hits you, it's hard to get
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: back up. I think we're playing for that sixty seconds.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Do you see it the same? How likely do you
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: think he is to get a sixty second knockout? How
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: much exposure do you think he'll play?
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: I think his his one ten or so could get
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: him there on this card, but not a for sure
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: thing at all. And I do want to check out
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: the odds on the first minute when that comes out,
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: because I think that's really live on this card. Even
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: though I haven't seen Vine's yet, I'm gonna have to
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: look into this guy.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: I'll put it in my right up. But I haven't
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: written this fight up at all.
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: I've only looked at the odds, and the odds kind
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: of say it all with minus eighteen hundred for him
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: to win under one and a half was like minus
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: nine hundred last I looked. So I'm expecting his first
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: round win to be like minus three point fifty minus
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: four hundred. So what's that going to put the first minute?
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: And I feel like it's gonna be like a decent
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: chance of him just breaking the slate right off the bat.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: So I do want some of him. I do think
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: he's gonna get a quick knockout. He is the scariest striker,
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: i'd say most powerful. He's like the new and Ganu.
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: He's like the scariest striker in the UFC. Eventually I'm
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: gonna want to fade him. But this isn't gonna be it.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to play any vines here. If I
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: can get to a Tiba, then I want him, but
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: I think I have ways to get there. That's another
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: reason why I want him on this card. So a
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: Teba or a pass, but at ninety eight hundred, nobody's
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: must have.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's one where I like the largest range of outcomes.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I'd be fine with if I have fifteen percent, you
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: know what, I'm good with it. The reason is I
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: can see obviously Morob out scoring I can see I
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: mean year, he could outscore them. It's a different price, right.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I can see Edmond outscoring them. I could see Soriano,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I could see Vanderford if you put up one twenty
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: one like last fight, Patchy Mix has upside now in
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: a vacuum. I'm not saying they're beating him, and you
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: don't need to just make the one v one pivot,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: but if you do so in the large contest big
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Boy Contests this week finally UFC steps up for pay
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: per view. But if someone if like and I think
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Morob will outscore them if I had to guess. But
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: if it's Morob and someone else in the nine k
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: plus range outscores Gattier and you can leave that money,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: That's one way to get a lot different. When I
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: am playing Gattier, I want to do something a little
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: different with my lineup. Either leave a little money, not
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: upgrade to some other talky piece, get low owned options.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: There's fourteen fights, so while I am focused on still
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: getting different, the more fights, the less you have to
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: worry about it as much. But within ninety eight hundred,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: just teams that leave zero dollars or one hundred without
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: many upgrades, I can see those being duped a little bit.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I'm not playing any Vines in
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: five million teams. I like them. What fifteen percent I get,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: whatever seventy percent I get, and I love everything. Sure,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I mean I'll take almost a sure one hundred plus.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: There obviously is nothing sure Vines will probably find a
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: way to owe me. But yeah, if he does, hey,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I'll move on to tomorrow. Free money Sunday, baby. That's
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: a nice thing about this time of the year. All right,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling to the second biggest favorite on
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: the card, Veronica Hardy minus eight twenty five, Broken Walker
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: plus five seventy five, the most likely fight to go
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the distance on the card. It's minus three fifty to
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: go the distance Hardy plus two ninety inside the distance,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Walker plus nine to fifty. This line open minus four hundred.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Big Marley now minus eight twenty five. Party's taking a
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: good amount of money in the past couple days. What's
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the upside we're looking at in this one? At ninety
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: four hundred, or excuse me, at ninety six hundred.
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, ninety six hundred. I just don't even see how
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: she gets there. So it's a rare one star fight
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: for me. I'm not gonna touch either side of this one,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: even if I make one hundred and fifty lineups and
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: I got it as a three. And it's because if
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: I had to use this fight, I don't know who
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: I would rather put in my lineup. Probably Broken Walker,
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: just because she's that cheap and it can afford me
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: a lot of other people. But on the other end,
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: Hardy's going to be completely unowned. Maybe she could separate
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: you if something happens here. But I just expect Hardy
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: to be the better fighter everywhere, but not completely smash
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: Walker in any area that she scores one hundred and
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: twenty points. I think she goes out there and scores
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: maybe ninety. It's like her upside, I think, and that's
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: not going to cut it at ninety six hundred. So
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: two exes for me. If one of them is on
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: the optimal lineup, I'm gonna be im. I'll be tuning
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: in for the final two fights. Possibly we'll see.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll definitely be watching Regardle. This car is su
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: good not to chase some live bet spots. So broken
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Walker though thirty six years old, oh and two in
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the UFC seven and four is a pro. Again. I
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: put these up on Monday Tuesday. I might to put
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: these lines up on Tuesday. I think I did, and
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: it was minus six fifties. You can see almost two
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: bucks already. Hardy's taken brogan Walker taking out four times
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: in both their UFC fights. Can Hardy go out there
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and do that? I know we're only showing she averages
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: point nine to three. But man, if it's that free,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: can we get four or five takedowns? Plast two ninety
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: inside of the distance isn't terrible? Like I painted a
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: picture where I wasn't gonna extra up pretty flop, I
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: still wouldn't with one point fifty. I've been going back
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and forth whether just to keep her and see what
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I get or just completely exer in twenty or less,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Like what's the takedown upside here? That's what we need?
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: I would think like four four takedown is like her ceiling.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: I would think the prop would be two and a half.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, two and a half's not great, but if you
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: can get the ceiling out come four, I still want
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: more than four. Just man, Walker's not good. Hardy keeps
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: taking money, but she is expensive before we go to
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the next fight, I guess let me ask her versus
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: yusef Zawal. I think those are the two clear worst plays.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: When you look at like the upper tier range, you
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: do have that fight as a two. So I see
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: you agree with the fight thing, But would you are
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: there's a lull or her.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: It's a loll But I don't know that I'll get
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: to him either.
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'd rather save the two hundred and
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: get to him fair enough.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's clearly the worst two. I probably agree
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: with you. I'd have to be really chalky to get
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: to the hardy and the lolls. And if I'm playing
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: hardy and I don't have gattier, which I don't think
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: many of my lineups will like, I'm probably not wanting
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to leave two hundred plus. I don't want that to
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: be the one v one pivot. I would just hope
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: she outscores the rest down below. I don't love it
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: much though, very probably. Yeah, the worst fight on the car.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: That's how you have it, That's how I see it
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: as well. Let's go to a pretty good fight that
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: can't be two long, just with how low the upper
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: tier is. Austin Vanderford minus three hundred ramis Brahimage plus
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: two fifty minus one zh five for this fight to finish,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Vanniford plus two to twenty inside the distance Brahimage plus
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: three hundred take it away. Four stars on this one.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like this one. I might even consider moving
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: it to a five star. Rahimaj has a hunter point upside.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: I think all of his wins our first round finishes.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: When he is at his best, it's when he comes
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: out aggressive in the first round. He got a knockout
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: over Mickey gall recently, but that's his only time he's
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: really impressive on the feet. He's usually going out there
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: getting a takedown early and aggressive and top control. They
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: give up their back, he chokes them out, and I
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: think that's in play here. If he wins this fight,
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: I think it's in the first round and he is
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: on the optimal lineup. If he doesn't win in the
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: first round, I think Vanderford could dominate him and score
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: one hundred plus points. So I like both sides of
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: this fight. This is gonna be one where I'm kind
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: of putting most money on two sides of a fight.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: I guess maybe the Morab Cory one as well, but
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I'm looking forward to talking to you about.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: That one later.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think Ramiz is somebody I'm looking to
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: be overweight on because I don't think he'll be two owned.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: And then Vanderford is somebody I would rather load up
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: on rather than get Zilul and rather than get Hardy
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: give me extra Van. I'll be heavy on this one.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Totally agree with that last pint. I agree with all
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: your points. Very interesting. It's not often you see like
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: we have a minus three hundred favorite in Vanderford the underdog,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: and Remiz is plus three fifty in round one. Vanderford's
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: plus six hundred. I think that shows all you need
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: to hear. Like Remiz is a fast starter, Big Marley's
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: talking all his finishes in round one, he has gas
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: as the fights go. Vanderford's just more of a wrestler
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: maller break you with his cardios pace, his top pressure,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and he can get a finish late. So Ramiz in
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: round one I absolutely like it, or Vanderford as the
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: fight keeps going. If he can stay safe on top
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: and doesn't get submitted in round one, Super Live for
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: a big score one to twenty one in his debut.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: So I love this fight on both sides. I'm totally
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: with you can leave money with Vanderford up top without
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: sacrificing upside. You can play Ramiz at seven K with
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: just as much upside as I'm not gonna say anyone
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: on the card since we have some big boys, but
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: on hundred plus point upside, there's no doubt about that
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: at seven K. When I hear that, I'm most almost
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: always interested. So who do we just get in the box?
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: My phone lit up.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Whoo ooh.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I was saying that because I was hoping, here we go.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Good start, good start, all right, let's uh, let's keep
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: it going to the next fight, one that I think
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: is very similar to that last fight in a lot
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: of different ways. Pricing pretty similar. Soriano's a minus three
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: twenty favorite Nicola I plus two to seventy. Very similar.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: This fight is minus one eighty to finish Soriano plus
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: one hundred inside of the distance Nicola plus three fifty.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So I do notice a little bit though this fight
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: was minus two thirty to finish on on Tuesday. Now
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: it's minus one eighty. Soriano is the one that is
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: inside the distance taking the biggest hit. So this fight
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: fifty cents or forty cents. Excuse me in uh no,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: it is fifty cents minus two thirty. Fifty cents has
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: been taken on the over. I don't like to see
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: that on a fourteen fight card. Still plus one hundred
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: for Soriano plus three fifty for Nickela. I. I prefer
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the fight prior this it has pretty solid props, though.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Soriano my preferred play since I think he can put
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: on the wrestling choose if so if he does wish
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and he has the power in his hands to get
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: a knockout, So yeah, break down this fight. Soriana my
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: preferred play.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Soriano definitely my preferred play here. He's somebody who
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: I think can compete for the optimal lineup because he
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: has first round knockout potential. He is also the better wrestler,
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: and I think he could put up like three to
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: five takedowns and one hundred plus points in the decision
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: as well.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: My worry for him losing the fight would be.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: That he doesn't wrestle and he doesn't knock this guy
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: out and it's a fifteen minute point fighting match. I
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: think that's what puts Nikolai in play for a win,
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: but I don't know that he really has much of
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: a ceiling with any of his wins, so I'm not
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: too interested in the underdog in this one. He's in
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: play for closer to a ten X type of win
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: if that's what you need, But I think I have
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: enough underdogs on this card that I don't really need
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: to go there. So for me, it's going to be
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: more so favorite or pass on this one, And I'm
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: cool being overweight to Soriano.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I agree. I don't think Nikola has much upside, and
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: that's my concern in decision wins. But just looking at
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: our ownership, sixteen percent him to finish plus three fifty,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: that's twenty two percent. If I told you Nikola I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: got to win, what are the odds you put or
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: a finish win? Excuse me? What odds would you put
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: that to be optimal?
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: If he got to finish, I would say he's certainly
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: going to be on the optimal. I just don't have
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: a hard time to Would you say, is inside.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: That this line is plus three fifty twenty two percent
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: to finish this fight versus we have projected ownership at
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: sixteen Just looking at that alone, yeah, I mean, I
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: don't think Soreano's gonna be crazy own where you get
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: the leverage. But long story short, I'm going to play
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: it just for those numbers and that alone. Hoping Soriano
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: doesn't wrestle. These are pretty too big cats. He can
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: land something as a primary striker. But I agree in
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: a decision I wouldn't love it. Can he win at
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: seventy four hundred, but I wouldn't put that a favor
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: to be optimal more than likely.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm not going to x him out,
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: but that makes me like him more than I did.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: But I still just like other underdogs. I'd rather have
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: Brahimash to be honest.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I agree. I think Brillymage does have
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: more upside as well, and my preferred play. All right,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to hear your take on this one. PATCHI
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: makes minus three hundred Jacob will Wicklocks plus two fifty
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: minus one ten for this fight to finish, PATCHI plus
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: one thirty inside the distance Wicklas plus six hundred Wicklas
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: making his UFC debut. PATCHI is second fight in the UFC.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: The first one could not have gone any worse. I
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: also don't think you could have got more of a
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: step down in competition than we see right here, the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: perfect matchup. Wicklocks a grappler all of his He has
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: no KO wins. When he finishes fights, it is by submission.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: PATCHI is known for his grappling as well, thirteen of
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: his twenty wins by submission. It just feels really hard
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to see where Wicklocks wins this fight, unless maybe I
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: mean a year ago, people are saying Patchi might be
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: one of the best in the division. Now he's fighting
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Jacob Wicklocks, Like, well, how do you see this fight going?
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: And then what upside do you see on the Patchy side?
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is probably gonna be a grapple
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: heavy fight. If Wicklax wins, it should be from the grappling.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: He looks like a dangerous grappler, and if that happens,
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: he's gonna put up a good win.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: I just don't think that's gonna be the case. I
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: think he's facing a.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: Better, more talented, more decorated, more proven grappler in Patchi.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: And I also think Patie's got the striking edge in
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: this one as well. I don't think he just settles
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: with the striking match, even though he could win that way.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: I think he's kind of gotta go out there and
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: win impressively after his last fight, even though this is
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: a huge step down. But I do think he probably
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: submits Wicklax. So I'm gonna be pretty heavy on this fight,
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: but more so on the mixed side. I would say
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: he's my preferred leverage play. But the heavier I get
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: on him, the more I do want a hedge with
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: some Wicklas just in case something does happen on the mat.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: I didn't.
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: I haven't seen a ton of them, but he did
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: look good on the ground in the fights that I
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: did see. It's just that they're not any patchy mixes
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: that he's beating, So preferred plays PATCHI.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and the the more like digging into the props.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: If Wicklax wins by sub or deb dominates grappling, the
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: odds makers don't see it like that. One bit plus
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: one fifty five for PATCHI by sub open plus two
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: hundred Wicklax plus nine to twenty five by sub open
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: plus eight hundred, So we're talking like seven times more
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: likely is PATCHI to get a sub and his number
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: is gone in the right direction if you're playing him
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Wicklax in the wrong direction. So yeah, I think this
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: is patchy. Wherever the fight goes, you just hope he
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: wrestles and grapples if he is to be optimal. Let's
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: take it to the next fight on the card, one
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: that I do not think will get much ownership. Macy
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: chesss on minus two hundred, Jannasantos plus one seventy plus
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: one sixty for this fight to finish, plus one seventy
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: inside the distance, Santos plus one thousand Macy open plus
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: two to fifteen inside the distance now minus one seventy.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: To make things even better, Macy averages two point zero
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: eight takedowns per fifteen Santos fifty three percent takedown defense
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: at eighty six hundred. I mean we're looking at it. Yes,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: usually women's fights plus more, only two women's fights on
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: this card, but plus one seventy inside the distance while
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: taking money eighty six hundred in a tier where she
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: can't be played, because if you just keep going one
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars more, you find way more appealing options YEARI
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: one hundred less a clear fight. People want to target
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: wrestling upside, finishing upside. I think Macy's definitely a strong
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: play on this lates, and I do not like Santos
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: for similar reasons as Nikolai, Like, I don't see her
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: really scoring in a decision, and she's like plus what
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: nine to twenty five? Did I say? Plus one thousand,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: whereas it plus one thousand to finish like Nikeola's plus
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: three fifty, So I think Santos is a very bad play.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Maybe you could talk me into something different. I do
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: like Macy, though, breakdown this fight.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just changed my stars to four star Macy, two
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: star Yana. I do think Yana's alive to win the fight.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: It would just be more of a boring fight where
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: she's kind of holding her against the cage, killing time there.
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: And that's the absolute worst case scenario for dfs because
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: you're not getting any significant strikes, you're not getting any takedowns.
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: And then if she does get a takedown, I think
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: she's gonna do a lot less with her takedowns than
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: Macy would win. Macy wins, Macy scores well. She averages
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: one hundred and three points in her wins in the UFC,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: and if she wins this fight through the ground, she
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: has that type of ceiling as well. I do think
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: she's the better striker at range, more dangerous striker.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe not better.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: I think it would be pretty close actually at range,
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: but I think she's the more dangerous striker at range,
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: and maybe if she is winning there, she keeps it
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: there for too long. That would be a little bit
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: of a worry, but it won't get too much ownership,
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: So I think the play to be overweight on Macy
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: is kind of the way to go in this one
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: and hope that she does look to be grapple heavy
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: and take advantage of Janna's weakness.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, give me Macy. I'll be newly overweight
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: to her.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: Like an hour ago, I wasn't really thinking about Macy
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: too much, but now I think she Yeah, she makes
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: a lot of sense.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Post one to seventy inside the distance is thirty seven percent.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to give out all of our projected ownership,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: and again that can change, but I will say it
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: is half less than half of thirty seven percent. Yeah,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: it's just really hard to click Macy's name with YEARI
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: one hundred least, and then you just keep going Pifer
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: Soriano on Patchie Ed. I mean, just the list goes
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: on and on. It's it's not a comfortable click. But
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: wrestling upside and solid finishing odds, that's something I will
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: sign up for, So I like it Macy for me.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card, another interesting fight. Only two
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: mid tier fights on the card. One of them's Yerie
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: round Tree, which we'll get to, which everyone knows is good.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: This being the second Daniel Santos minus one fifty seven
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Jews saying you plus one thirty seven plus one hundred
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: for this fight to finish, Santos plus two to twenty
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: five inside the distance, you plus two to ninety five.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Interesting note again on Tuesday when I did these odds
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: plus one fifteen for this fight to finish, now plus
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: one hundred money going in the right direction if you
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: are to roster this fight, And then how I see
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: this fight going, and how odds makers do KO props
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: pretty similar for them both you the underdog plus three
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: seventy five, Santos plus four to seventy five. Again that
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: is by KO subprops though you plus sixteen hundred Santos
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: plus seven hundred by sub. Santos has the grappling upside.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I think the wrestling upside and pretty close on the feet.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: That leads me to preferring the Santos side. I just
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: think there's more upside, and again that take it down
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: upside is a big thing. When he wins, he scores.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: He scored one hundred plus and two decisions. Shoots the box.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: Skuy can push a pace, enjoys a fun fight enjoys
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: a brawl. I think we can get a fun fight
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: in this one. It's gonna be low owned. I'm hoping
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: it's a fun fight. Kind of talking myself into it again.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: I do like seeing the under being hit. Santos has
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: also taken a little money since Tuesday as well. What
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: do you see in this one?
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this will be a fun fight. I do.
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: Like both sides of it. But I think I mean,
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: Santos has looked good in the UFC. He is averaging
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: one hundred and like one hundred and thirteen, Yeah, and
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: his UFC wins which is solid, and he's only a
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: minus one point here. He was basically a pick and
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: fight until like the last couple of days, which I
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: think is very telling.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: On the U side, I think you could be really special.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: His striking could be like Connor McGregor esque, where he
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: could go out there and put people away in the
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: first round. I think with just these great angles that
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: they just don't see coming. He's got a lot of
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: tools in his striking toolbox. And if he does put
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: Santos away in the first round, or if he knocks
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: him out in any round, I don't think we see
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: plus money on you again for a while. I think
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: he could be that good. So I'm gonna be on
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: the U side kind of hoping that that's the case.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: But I also like Santos too. The line movement is
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: going his way. He is the one with wrestling upside.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: He can score one hundred plus in the decision, where
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: I do think it's a knockout or bust for you
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: to have any hundred point upside. But his man, his striking,
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: I think is just gonna be so good, and I
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: think it's already UFC level.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: He's got a.
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: Week win that first one. It's uh, it was a
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: great knockout. It just wasn't a great level of competition.
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: But man, I think he could add some names under
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: his belt.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: So give me you.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: I'm excited about this kid in the UFC and hopefully
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: he goes out there and proves me right.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so I wanted to mention, like usually, let me
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: just get it right real quick. The fight ended in
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: twenty eight seconds, its first fight he does have a
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: UFC fight usually this like, I don't put anything for debuters,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: but because those twenty six seconds, like his strike significant
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: strikes per a minute came out to like twelve point
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: eighty six. It was just it would it would give
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: the wrong mage to people. So just know that he
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: has had a UFC fight twenty six second ko looked phenomenal.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: It is very short, Sarah Gai no good so level competition,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: like Big Marley saying, but just know, like next fight,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: we'll have better numbers here for this. But second fight
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: for you. Santos is his fifth fight, but I believe
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: he's owing one to start any won three in a row.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: That Castaneda fight man like that just shows Santos was
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: getting beat up early. Junkyard Dog came back in the second.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: I think we have a fun fight here. Let's move
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: to a fight I do not like very much. Free
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Bascharat minus four seventy five Chris Gudier is plus three
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: seventy five plus one ninety five for this fight. To
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: finish Basap plus two to eighty five Gudier is plus
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: five point fifty. So I'm gonna throw Bascharat in the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: same boat as Yusuf Zilal and Veronica Hardy, the three
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: clear people. People do not want to play nine K
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: and above, I think rightfully. So the thing with Bascharat, though,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: is you do get wrestling upside? So do you have
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: him ahead to the other two like this is I
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: know where I was strupping my last like fade takes underweight,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: et cetera. I don't want much of any of them
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: if I'm playing one fifty. Sure, but how would you rank?
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: You already said to the lall over hardy, So I guess
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: the lull or Basharat.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Bascha rat then's a luh.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, break down this one? Why? Like how often what
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: passes Basher? I get one hundred plus in this one?
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: I would say not often, but it has to be
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: wrestling heavy, which I do think is in play for
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: this one, just to like, I mean, go out there,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: save your legs, man? Why get Why eat a couple
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: of leg cakes for no reason? I do think Basharat
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: wins his fight if it does take place on the feet.
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: I think he's the better striker. I think he's more dangerous.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: But he is gonna get his legs eating up because
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: that's the one thing Gutierra is just really good at.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: So if you want to avoid that, you go out
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: there and you take his you take him down, And
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Gutierres really doesn't have much to offer on the ground
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: he is, you can take him down, So I think
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: it could be a clear three rounds of wrestling here
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: for Basharatt, and he can be active on the ground.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: It's not as active as I would want him to be,
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: but I think he just makes I think he scores
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: over one hundred more often than the other two. I
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: don't really want much basher At, but I am willing
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: to play him. I'd rather if I have ninety six
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: hundred for my last spot, I'd rather go down to
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: him rather than play Hardy. And even if I can
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: get a couple less dupes going from him down to
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: allow I don't know if I want to take that
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: chance or not. I think I like basher At just
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: a little bit more overall, but it is close, i'd
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: say with those two. So if you guaranteed me like
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: six less dupes with with Zillal and no win or
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: anything on either side, maybe that entices me enough.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I like how you put it that way.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: It all becomes not all often you win when you
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: win how much, And it's part like MMA and dupe sports, Like, Yeah,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna get six less dupes on something we
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: see pretty pretty similar, then you take that, but you
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: do like Boschrat more than Sala on a vacuum. I
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: have struggle with all the I don't like any of
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Maybe I just keep them all in the pool in
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: the accident like ten percent, and if they just trickle in,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: they trickle in. Yeah, maybe Bostra and I think so
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: all tries to wrestle too. I mean not nearly as
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: easy to get taken down, but yeah, Goutierra is king
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: of light kicks. Always not hate Gouti aras for dfs,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: but man in real life, just I'm the light kick
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: guy over here. Goodiers has some of the nastiest like
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: kicks you will see. So it would be smart for
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Basra to excuse me to take him down. Let's get
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: to the next fight. Classic striker versus wrestler matchup. I'd
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: been Shabazi minus three ten Mouni's Andre Muniz plus two
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: sixty minus four hundred for this fight to finish Shabazi
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: minus two hundred Muni's plus three eighty five. I miss
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: both classic striker versus grappler matchup. Muni is definitely a grappler.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: He likes to wrestle. I mean he'll want to wrestle
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: in this one, but he's known for his grappling over
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: his wrestling, as you can see on Tuesday and then
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: it was minus two seventy five. Today he is minus
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: three ten. I'd been taking money over under his moved,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: but it is the best on the slate. At minus
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: four hundred, you have it a five star. I absolutely agree.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: I'd then striking Ko Moonize by sub I think that's
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: it's pretty obvious in this one. I just when does
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Shabazi get it done or when does Munise get it done.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I guess it doesn't even matter when Moonize does. But
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: how do you see the fight playing out?
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's probably Mooni's shooting for an early takedown.
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: If he gets it, he might get a first round
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: submission and h hey, he has upside similar to Brahimage,
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: where he could win in the first round score one
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: hundred plus points. But I trust Mooneese more than Brahimaj
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: after the first round, I think Monize could win in
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: the second round. He could maybe even get a third
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: round submission, where I think Briamas is probably given up
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: a little bit at that point. But I also don't
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: know that moone is a good enough wrestler to dictate
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: where this fight takes place. If the first couple takedowns fail,
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: maybe he does try and turn this into a striking
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: match where I don't, and I don't think that goes
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: well for him.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: I think he gets knocked out in.
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: That case, So give me that to be the case,
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Shabazi and getting the knockout. I do like him, but
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: I do also want Moone's exposure. This is my second
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: favorite fight on the card. If I had fifty percent
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Shabazi in thirty percent Mooneese, that sounds pretty solid to me.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: I agree, nothing wrong about that. Shabazi and the second
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: best inside the distance run one props on the slate
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: minus two hundred, obviously behind Gadia minus two hundred, or
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: we don't know Gada is yet. It's going to be
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: better but Edmond minus two hundred inside the distance plus
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: one seventy in round one. Yeah, and you can see
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: on the stone as well, the volume is pretty low.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: He shows wrestling upside, but this fight's just completely different
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: than most of his. If Moonese can't get it to
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: the Matt, Edman should be able to pick him apart,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: knock down and play Run one plus one seventy is good.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: A lot of upside there and like give me like
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: build a Veronica team, drop down, save the five hundred
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: your extual getting a better fighter, more, a higher ceiling,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: more chances that the optimal doing it like that, and
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: that is why it's hard to stomach paying more for
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: the hard ease the boss rots to the lulls again.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Pricing or ownership will reflect that. But if you play
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: edmin and leave the money top grade, then not everyone
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: does that when building with optimizers, handbuilds, etc. So yeah,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I like this fight a lot. Easy to leave money
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: on the table when playing this fight because you're not
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: giving up upside on either side. Next fight on the car,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: do appreciate everyone hanging out again like button subscribe button
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: helps us out a ton, and we would love to
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: have you at the Nation. You can see up above
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: five days for nineteen dollars using the coach Chip nineteen.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: We'd love to have you give us a try. Use
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: it now. You get college football, big boy this week,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: you get MLB playoffs, you get MMA. Of course, you
• 33:48
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• 33:50
  Speaker 1: for five days. No better time to get in the
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: best time of the year to be a DFS fan,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: that is for sure, or DFS player. We're fans of it,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: but we got some skin in the game, trying to
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: make the big bucks. Next fight on the card, five
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: fights left good one. I'm excited for this one. Joe
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: Pifer minus two to fifty five a boost Maga Matov
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: plus two to fifteen minus two twenty for this fight
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: to finish, Pifer minus won forty inside the distance, which
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: is the third best on the card. Migohmed plus four
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: fifty break it down, Pifer Magamed, what'd you got?
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna prefer the underdog and this.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Love you love your booze. I like it.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: I'm also just not a big Pifer believer.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: I think that he is a dangerous striker, but I'm
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: not a big fan of the My one punch power
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: is my best thing about my striking game type of thing.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: I think a fifteen minute striking match here could go
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: either way. I also think that the danger factors pretty
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: close on both sides.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: I'd say Pifer has.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: More power, but Magomedov has more ways to get that knockout.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: I guess more tools in a striking toolbox, and then
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: maybe Pifer could have some offensive wrestling, but I prefer
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: abuse is grappling and wrestling over Pifer.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: To me, this should be a lot closer to a
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: pick and fight. I think there's value on the betting
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: line for a Boose. I also think he has ninety
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: plus upside in a decision, So I'm gonna be overweight
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: on a Boose underweight. Maybe if I make less than
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: twenty lineups on this card, I probably fade Pifer to
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: be honest with you, and go with those people that
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: we've already talked about around him instead, because I do
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: think Pifer gets ownership where a couple of the other
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: ones I think go a little bit overlooked on this card.
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: So definite underweight Pifer stands for me, a boos is
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: one of my favorite underdog bets on the card.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Though I like it, and like you, I think if
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: someone's to get four takedowns in this fight, I would
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: be surprised if it was Pifer over a Boost. I
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: think if someone does look to wrest so it's a
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Boost mixing his martial arts more Piper trying to keep distance,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: load up that right hand to find the chin. So
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: I like what you're saying. Yeah, I haven't liked a
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Boose is inside the distance has been going the wrong way,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: which is why I didn't love him as much as
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I did earlier in the week plus four hundred and
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: no plus four to fifty. But yeah, he does have
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: upside in a decision. A little worried for me though,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: that if he can't wrestle and Piper with the power,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: they both respect each other's power enough that we get
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: a little just tic tac toe back and forth, little
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: light kicks this that, which is why I do prefer
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: some other fights like the Edmin fight, the Morob fight,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: the Yearie fight. I just think there's more pass that
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: they can stare at each other hoping it's not the case,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: but I wouldn't go all in.
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really like more of a three star fight
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: for me, but since I'm heavy on a Boose, I
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: put it in as four starksse. I think he's gonna
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: give me enough leverage to make it a four star
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: fight for me.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, No, that makes tons of sense. You take pretty
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: much any win from a boost at that price. Next
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: fight on the car. The second biggest favorite use of
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: zilaal minus five twenty five Josh Emmett plus four to
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: ten plus one eighty five for this fight to finish
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: za La plus two eighty inside the distance, Emmett plus
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: four seventy five. So we talked a lot about zilall
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: Uh in the fact of just he's not a great
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: upper tier spend on paper. He does, though, if someone's
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: gonna wrestle in this fight, it's gonna be Zilal and
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: he would be a fool not to wrestle in this
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: fight in my opinion, Like Emitt still hits like a truck.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: You can see he's forty years old. The dude will
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: always be live in any fight because he has that
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: right hand. He has the death touch that can put
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: anyone out you see plus four to ten inside the
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: distance or plus four ten money line plus four seventy
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: five inside the distance for Emmett. If he wins, it's
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: probably by ko. I wouldn't get to m in a
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: handful lineups. I think there's plenty of other live dogs.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: If you're playing one fifty though, I mean by no
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: means what I x ol Josh Emmett. So, yeah, what
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: do you who's your preferred play? I guess you have
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: a two star and then three on both sides. So
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: who is your preferred side.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: I would say Zilal with like handbuilt lineups, I'd rather
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: click on him. But if I ended up with more
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: immin lineups with a one fifty from an optimizer, I
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: think I'd be cool with that. I just I'm not
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: gonna really be playing it too much because I'd rather
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: those other favorites that we've talked about. I have other
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: underdogs I'd rather target more. But with one fifty, you
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: gotta get like a good amount of im lineups because
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: he has crazy knockout power. Just one punch is all
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: it takes for him to win, but I do think
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: that's his.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: Main path to victory. If he doesn't get the knockout.
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: I just struggle to see him win this fight because
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Zlal is the better, more well rounded striker in my opinion.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: His movement makes him hard to hit, and I just
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: think he would win a three round striking match. He
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: is the better strike I mean, the better wrestler, the
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: better submission grappler. Here, he's just gonna have way more
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: ways to win the fight, but he's got to avoid
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: that big bomb, and that big bomb could put one
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: hundred and ten points on the IMET side. And then
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: no Immitt, no cash type of thing. So I'd be
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: scared to fade in it. But if I'm only making
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: like ten lineups, that m it's somebody I'm not clicking
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: on because I'd rather have Moonees. I'd rather have Brahimage
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: A couple others we'll get. We'll get to some others
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: here soon too. But Nickel, I don't really know on
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: my preferred play here, Nikola I don't know about that. Actually,
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: I think Nikolay has a better chance of winning. But
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: if Nikolay wins and Emmett wins it out.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Scores, I agree with that. You think I prefer the
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: ceiling there.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: I never know what to do in that scenario, but
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: I think I prefer not only the ceiling, but if
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: I need to save that money, give me im it
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: as well.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough, I'd be on the Nickela side of
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: having to choose. But no, no, strongly like minus four
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: fifty five was it was on Tuesday. Minus five twenty
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: five now is a wall taking money, and it's though
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: inside the distance has not budged too much. If he wins,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: it is probably by not. Yeah, he always looks yoked
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: with those weird ribs and everything. But that is not
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: something you want to you want to get touched by,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: that's for sure.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, I saw Zilal at the hotel in Atlanta
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: and I talked to him for a bit. Well, he
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: was with the Eric Anders and I was saying, how
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: big Eric Anders looked?
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: No, dude, he was my size. This guy's freaking huge, bro.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: I was like, yeah, I was asking him. I was like,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: what do you wear right now?
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Eric?
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: And he's like, I don't know, two twenty five. I'm like, goddamn,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: you look to forty. I'm like, what do you weaning? Dude,
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: You're freaking almost as big as him. And he was
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: like two hundred pounds probably, I don't want to say.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: So.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: That was a big dude. And he wasn't like chubby
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: at all.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: He was.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: He was just a big looking dude. Shocked me to
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: see how to see that he's a one forty five.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I said skinny because I was like,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I mean he's five ten, Like we know he's long.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how he cuts all that.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: That's a hack ton of way if he was walking
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: around at two hundred man, but he always makes weight
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: like he yeah, he can move on his feet. It's
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: it's just we don't love the upside as much for
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: the price. It's up takedown. Good to see you, Good
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: to see you. All right, three fights left, that's all
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I got in that one. I mean three awesome, awesome fight.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: I would argue the main events the least appealing. I'll
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: always sign up for an Alex Purra fight. But you're
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: just talking raw entertainment. I don't know how you can
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: beat Eerie Khalil Morab Corey. We're talking Uri Prashka minus
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: one ninety two Kalil Roundtree plus one sixty seven. This
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: fight's minus two seventy five to finish. Yeeri minus won
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: ten inside the distance, Roundtree plus two fifty. And then
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: looking at the odds again on Tuesday, it was minus
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: one eighty. Now it's minus one ninety two. So little
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: money has come in on the YEARI side, but little
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: money on the over. Not too much in terms of
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: line movement. This is my underdog play. I mean, I'm
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: on Khalil Hill Khalil here on the money line and
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: preferred for dfs, not as strong wing for preferred for dfs,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: like I think YEARI does score more in wins than Khalil.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: You do get the eight hundred discount though only one
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: of them can win. So obviously, if I think Khalil's winning,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: I think he scores more. I just think Yuri is
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: gonna get caught. Like he's just so aggressive and so
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: the word's not careless with his chin in his hands up.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: That's just his fighting style and what worked for him.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: But I just think it's a mistake to be if
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: his legs will be there in front of him to
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: be chopped. They've already talked about that. Klil is like
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: if it's so obvious, like he's gonna work on that.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: But I just think when he crashes into the pocket
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: YERI that is Khalil's just not someone you want to
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: be touched. On the other side, he's looks so good,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: could argue career best as of late. I think he's
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: just patient enough to not fall into an absolute war.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I could be wrong. I just I think this line's
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: a little wide, so I don't see wrestlings on either side.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I think Khalil finds the chin when year he gets
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: aggressive and puts him away. So yeah, I'm I'm on
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: the Khalil side. But no strong take for DFS. I
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: will make sure I have more clear than Yerie, and
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: I think YERI will be high your own, So that's
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: a stand. But if I had still overweight Yearie, by
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: no means am I not going with that. I think
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: it's a great fight.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I like both sides of this fight, and
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: that might talk me into making it more of a
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: three and three. I think round Tree is live to
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: win a striking based decision, and he's.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: Got big time power.
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: And I say it every time Jerry fights that he
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: is defensively irresponsible, and I think that could lead to
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: a Roundtree knockout here. It's just that I feel like
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: this could also be one where round Tree is a
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: little bit tentative because Jerry's a madman, and if Jerry's
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: a madman, I think he could go out there and
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: knock out Roundtree. So either way we could see a knockout.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: I think that'll be good for DFS. It'd be more
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: likely first round than third, but they are both three
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: round fighters and could get there in the third round.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: Two I think that would be worse for DFS, but
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: it could still put them on the optimal lineup, especially
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: Jerry because I think he's more likely to wrestle, have
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: a couple of takedowns along the way, better grappler as well,
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: so since he has more ways to win, Jerry is
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: my preferred play, but not by much. And if I
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: was struggling to find an underdog to click on and
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: I have Jerry in my lineup already, I would be
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: fine like taking him out, putting in Roundtree and seeing
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: what that does to my lineup. So I do like
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: this fighting, and it's what would you say, what would
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: you rate this one as out of five stars?
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: I think that's so tough. Four or five. It's close
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: between that Mooneese Edmund fight. In the fact of just
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: a second round Edmund knockout, I'm not sure how likely.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Whereas you get a third round knockout from either guy
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: at their prices and only two mid tier fights. To
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: be honest, probably this one five. I'd probably go five
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: and prefer This also has to do with just the
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: ability to leave money. You can go to almost any
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: nine K fighter and then play Yerie and you're not
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: feeling like you're giving up upside and the dude, like
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I keep saying, it's wild man. So just the pricing
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: and that alone probably five.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I might change this two of five since I
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: don't have the main event as a five, I could
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: definitely bump this one up.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: I definitely agree with you in the fact, if I
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: don't see the main event of five at all, it's
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: just a phenomenal, phenomenal fight. But I wouldn't go all in.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: I like, if it does go to decision, I guess
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: let me we'll finish it out on this. Because you
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: mentioned a little wrestling upside, or if someone were to wrestle,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: it's a YEARI better grappler. What would you said is line.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say takedown line. I'm gonna say his
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: attempt takedown attempts line because I think his takedown prop
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: would have to be half. Like I'd struggle to see
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: anything over one half or that, but attempts is different.
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd go like, attempts two and a half, attempts.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Two and a half. If I would, that makes me
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: like Yuri more than I initially did, because I mean,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: if he does shoot two and a half takedown or
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: two takedowns, three takedowns, and he has success with the first,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: then he keeps going back, or he does get on
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: the mac and pound him away. Interesting. Interesting, I was
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: just hoping that. I still do think.
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if I was his coach, I'd want him to
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: go out and attempt to wrestle.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: It is Uh that clip is mind bogulining, shutting his nose,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: his mouth, everything, just sprinting for forty seconds Like this
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: dude's different. There ain't no two ways around that. Yeah,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: it is a pay per view takedown. UFC three to
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: twenty pay per view season all right, two fights left,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: two phenomenal fights, title fight minus four hundred morob de
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: vals Phelly plus three hundred Corey San Haagen plus two
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: to fifty. For this fight to finish, we're plus three
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: ninety inside the distance, Corey plus five point fifty. You
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: want it might take? You said I'll go first on
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: this one, you go first on the next one. Sure,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I think this line. I'm not gonna call it crazy.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I think it's disrespectful to Corey though I think Corey's
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I'll be so, I don't like have no hot take
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: top ten pounds per pound, and I would probably move
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: that number up. I just I think it's he's just
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: in the best division. I think, like Umar san Hey, Corey.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: I look at them all in a tier of their
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: own up here and everyone else below. He's so smart,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: he's so high IQ. He works so hard, his cardios
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: on point, he's long the volume. He can wrestle those
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: scrambles and stuff with Umar. Like, that's why I don't like.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: I just can't pick against Morob because Rob beat Umar.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: We saw Umar do that. Rob's wrestling and just he
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: finds ways to win. But if any like if people
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: were to beat him, granted anyone can well, Marlon Moris
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: had that dude pretty much out cold crazy. He recovered.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: But Umar and Sanhagan and this line is just completely
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: different than the Umar fight, and I look at it
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: pretty similar again. I really think Umar's a stud. I
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: think Rob's the stud. I think Corey's a stud. But
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: I'm so high on Corey. I guess relative to pretty
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: much everything else. He's gonna fight him. He's gonna find
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: him for twenty five minutes, his knees, like, if he
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: is down, he's gonna look for a kill shot. He's
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: he's smart enough to do that. I think the line's crazy,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: and just at ownership. If we have it, I'll be
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: overweight both guys, I'm very strongly considering having one hundred
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: percent of this fight in one hundred and fifty teams.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: If I do so, play that Marob when he wins,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: it's hard to see him not scoring. And it's really
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: hard for me to see Corey winning and not getting
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: there at sixty nine hundred. So yeah, I mean that's
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: a great point that flying meth did show that Sugar landed.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: It hurt Morob that first fight in round five. If
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: that happened earlier, who knows how it goes? So big
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: height advantage again hasn't met in reach hasn't met much
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: in the Sugar fight. But I look at Corey as
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I think Corey would do bad things to Sean personally.
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: So great fight every which way. My favorite on the card,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: break it down.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on Sanagan here.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: I think he is. I think he's the best bet
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: on the card.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: I've been saying since like his second UFC fight, that
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: he's a future champion. He's just special. He's striking his
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: levels above. Morob's a good striker because he is NonStop.
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: He could just throw strikes over and over and over
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: again and not give you a chance to Breathe but
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Sandagan doesn't.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: He's the same thing. He could.
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: He could go harder than Marob, but better and more
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: dangerous as well. Morob is definitely gonna have the offensive
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: wrestling edge here, and I do think he's gonna land
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: a handful of takedowns. But I don't think he's just
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: gonna be able to lay on Corey. I think Corey's
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: gonna get back to his feet. Corey's also dangerous off
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: of his back, where if Corey gets a takedown on Morob,
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: I think he's gonna do a lot of a lot
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: of work there, and Morob's not gonna have anything to
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: offer off his back, where Corey could still land a
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: lot of strikes. He could submit Morob from the bottom possibly.
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't say that. I don't think that's likely,
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: but he has the skills to do it. Uh And
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: I just the way I see it going is Morob
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: lands probably five six takedowns in this fight, but it
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: goes the distance, and Corey doubles him up on the strikes,
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: messes up his face a little bit, gets a takedown
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: or two of his own, and wins on the scorecards.
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: But he could win by any method and he's gonna
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: put up a good score with.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: Any any any win as well.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: But on the mob side, he's got the biggest ceiling
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: on the entire card, and he could outscore anybody on
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: this card by thirty forty points. To be honest, if
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: Morob does win the fight, it's gonna be a bunch
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: of takedowns, decent amount of control time, but a lot
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: of strikes in top control as well. It's not just
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: gonna be him laying there controling core I think it
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: would be him fighting there and then maybe Corey gets
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: back up and then he returns another takedown. But any
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: win from Morob's gonna score crazy as well. So yeah,
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: I'm fine being all in on this fight. But Corey
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Sanagan's gonna pull it off.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: He's a beer champion, let's go. Yeah, I might bet it.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: I've strongly debated it for a little bit. The lions
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: kept moving, which I'd liked to see. Yeah, I mean
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: plus three thirty I'm seeing on Caesars. It's a big
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: boy number for what I believe be a top ten
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: and could even be better pound for pound in the world.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: So I love it. I absolutely love it. Zero arguments
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: on this side. So does that mean you will not
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: have any fight stacks of this one.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: No, I was actually thinking about it.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: But what took me away from it, like even like
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: attempting my handbuild to see what it would look like,
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: was that I have Corey winning, and I think if
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: Corey wins, the stack probably doesn't make it on that.
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: I doubt Morob scores one hundred and a loss, but
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: I mean he could if anyone's gonna score a hundred
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: and a loss, really any him?
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you probably within one hundred though, But that's why
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: I was asking you. I was like, if you picked
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Morob like everything you said, but if you said Morob
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: got it instead of like the decision instead of Corey,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: like it could get there. Now, I'm not gonna do
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: it again. I'm not playing sure, I'm playing one fifty.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: But part of the reason also, just say Sanhagan scored
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: seventy five in the loss would be really really good.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Like the fight completely, that's still not guaranteed. We talked
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: about a boost Brahimage Nikolai, you moonies, like there's Alex
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Prayer We're gonna talk about there's other dogs that are
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: live and can outscore that. So even if Corey does lose,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: the decision scores that he for sure isn't on there.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: But if I knew Morob won and Corey short seventy
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: five and a loss, yeah, I would be so heavy
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: in the fight stack hitches. It's still hard to do
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: that in a loss, but I love it. I love
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: the pick. I'm definitely gonna be overweight Corey may that
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: time rematch. Michael Metenklai minus two sixty two Alex Prayra
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: plus two twenty two minus won sixty for this fight
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: to finish, Ankle Live plus one sixty inside the Distance
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Prayer plus two seventy. So it is worth noting on
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: Tuesday this fight was minus one forty to finish. Now
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty. I'm not sure if people are thinking
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: that like the Bad Blood and the Bad Blood. There's
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: been some back and forth because the ufcp I prayer
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: said he was hiding. The next day he came out,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: blah blah. I don't know if that's why the line's
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: moving or it's just an Alex Perra fight that's minus
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: one forty to finish and people wanted to take that.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Eighty nine hundred and seventy three hundred if it was
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: the first fight, which was a coin flip. Very interesting
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: to see how much the line has moved since first
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: fight Anklive Squared. I believe eighty four DK points, maybe
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: eighty three. Like it, you don't want if the first
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: fight happens again, it's a complete fight. Fade takedown mentioned
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: it earlier. Bake Marley has a three star. You easily
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: can fade this fight. So that's all I got. I
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: want you to break down this fight first though.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's gonna be.
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: Somewhat similar to the last one where it mainly does
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: take place on the feet, but I think there will
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: be takedowns on the Anklive side this time, and so
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: my issue is on the betting line. I would rather
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: take Perera. I think the line is a little bit
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: too wide. If it's gonna be a striking match, I
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: much prefer that Pereira side, and he did stuff like
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: twelve takedowns or something in that last fight, which is
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: expressive and crazy to That's kind of why I keep going,
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: keep going. So if it is going to be a
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: striking match, I prefer the money line on Pereira. But
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: for DFS, if Pereira does win this fight, I mean
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: he might score ten x in a five round decision,
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: whereas ank Alive if he wins, he has one hundred
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: and ten hundred and really twenty point upside in five
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: rounds if the wrestling is there. So I picked Pereira
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: because my picks were more like I send my picks
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: to sports line. So I picked Pereira because it's a
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: betting type of site and I would rather take him.
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna carry over my pick on ship a Nation.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: It's gonna say Pereira by split decision, but I think
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: I would rather prefer ank Eliave as my preferred play,
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: even though I'm picking him to lose Andy's eighty nine hundred,
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: because if he wrestles, he could possibly dominate the fight
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: but score maybe not match what Morob could do, but
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: he could get up there to the possible one ten,
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: one twenty range if he does wrestle heavily. Here, so
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: preferred bet Pereira, preferred DFS play aunt Elive, But I
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: have it as a three and three because it's like
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: Pereira's playing for the underdog, like split decision type of role.
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: But he is a dangerous kickboxer and could always knock
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: out anybody, so he has sealing that way too. I
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: don't know for sure if I was making one lineup
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: that I would for sure not have Pereyra in there.
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what I would do. Maybe I'll
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: change to four and two aunt elive, But what are
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: you thinking here?
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: That's what it was funny I wrote up in the
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: leave plan beginning of the week. Anklve is my preferred
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: play because I'm picking him to win and then with
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: the wrestling upside, like he clear one hundred plus point
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: upside if the fight goes his way. He scored eighty
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: four or eighty three, I don't know again for sure,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: but while going oh for twelve on takedowns, Alex Pereira
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: still lost that fight very easily, forty eight forty seven
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: on two judges cards, forty eight forty six on another.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: But like ank l have outstruck out mixed martial artist
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Alex Pereira, which is why I did pick him and
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: struggle with Pereyer, And I said, Anklize my preferred place
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: since I think he wins, I think the wrestling upsides there.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: But then this morning, as I kept breaking down all
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: these fights and messing with builds and all that. I
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: had to circle back and say, I don't even have
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: a strong lean because if Pereira wins, he's plus two
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: seventy inside the distance plus two to seventy inside the
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: distance is twenty seven percent, which I think will be
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: his ownership will be somewhere around there. Even if he
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: wins at a decision twenty five minutes scores seventy eight,
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: like that could be enough at seventy three hundred. He
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: has multiple outs in any case where Peyer wins and
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: he gets there with the same camp be said about
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Anklve like there's a lot of strong nine K high
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: AK options where ninety three I won't take it. I
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: don't think it's optimal, where sixty nine from Pereira could
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: be enough at seventy three hundred. So I kind of
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: circle back. The beginning of the week I thought ank
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Live definitely my preferred play. Now I really don't have
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: a preferred play. I'll probably be overweight to fight Fade
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: and hope it's similar to the first fight, But this
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: one I'm really open to a lot of range of outcomes.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: I know I'll be playing a bunch of rob Corey
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: uh and people just love playing five round fights, so
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: I think I will be under for that reason. But
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: when I am playing Robert Corey and I find playing
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: both like the ownership's in check on both guys enough
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: you can easily play both five round fights, get different
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: elsewhere and even build solo ship or lineups at the
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: end of the day. So I don't think I'm really
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: helping people much. And Lie is my pick because he's
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: all twelve takedowns were stuffed and he's still won. It's
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: hard to see where Peyra gets it. But man Prayer
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: can catch anyone at any time, and if he does so,
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: twenty seven percent chance to finish this fight at seventy
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: three hundred. Yeah. I don't have a strong lean. I
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: really don't, but I came into Pereira. I like the
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: prayer side more and more. As the week has gone
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: on Anklive, nothing has changed. He has wrestling ups he
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: can get there, but he's competing with very high possible
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: scores in a high price range. That's all I got there.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: Any final thoughts, Big Marley, that's an hour talking UFC
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: three twenty fourteen fights. It's tough, fingers Cross. We keep
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: all fourteen though tough equals spread out, ownership equals good
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: for MMA. Dfs equals lower dupes. Final thoughts, Big Marley.
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm hoping I'm right about the Sandhagan pick. I
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: actually just threw a little bit more on him as
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: you were talking there.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Feel good about it.
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think this will be a fun card,
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: hopefully a profitable one as well. Good luck to you title,
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: Good luck to everybody listening.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: We appreciate all the support watching live, We're watching on
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: playback again. All we ask is the like button, subscribe button.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: I would love to see the YouTube comments too. What underdog?
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm curious. What underdog this week is your
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: favorite in terms of we'll say, in terms of betting,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: just which one do you think has the most value
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: on the betting line. We'd appreciate that. And again, if
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: you're not at the Nation A member, no better time
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: to try us out five days for nineteen dollars using
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: the code chip nineteen. Absolutely cannot beat that. That'll do
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: it for us or Big Marley, I'm titled Tom. Let's
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: win some cheese this week. Good luck, be safe, Peace,