Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Sharp - Part 1

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2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Sharp - Part 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast, part of the Volume
0:12
Speaker 1: podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
0:19
Speaker 1: Mike Padre my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So
0:25
Speaker 1: I'm in Chad. How we doing, dude? We got some
0:29
Speaker 1: serious football, some serious football betting to discuss. Because the
0:35
Speaker 1: NFL schedule came out last week, lines are posted for
0:41
Speaker 1: every single game. Team totals are posted for games like
0:47
Speaker 1: the Action to get down already for Week one has
0:51
Speaker 1: been insane. It's become a highlight for fans. The schedule
0:54
Speaker 1: released during the sort of dull drums of the NFL offseason,
1:00
Speaker 1: and they've really nailed this. The NFL also offers gamblers
1:03
Speaker 1: a chance to discuss this upcoming season from a variety
1:08
Speaker 1: of new angles. Today, we're going to do things a
1:10
Speaker 1: little bit differently. We're doing a two part episode with
1:13
Speaker 1: a very special guest returning to the show to discuss
1:18
Speaker 1: many of those angles. One of our favorite guests with
1:22
Speaker 1: our favorite mustache. He's an NFL predictive analyst, one of
1:27
Speaker 1: the originals, a proponent of all things data, the impresario
1:32
Speaker 1: of sharp football analysis. Dot Com. Mister Warren Sharp.
1:38
Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me, Chad Simon. Pleasure to be
1:41
Speaker 2: back with you.
1:42
Speaker 3: Guys. Always love this time of year because we get
1:44
Speaker 3: to break down the schedule and like you mentioned, lines
1:46
Speaker 3: out on all these games.
1:47
Speaker 2: Everything is super fresh.
1:48
Speaker 3: It's never going to be any fresher than it is
1:51
Speaker 3: over the past week or so, so happy to dive
1:54
Speaker 3: into it with you guys.
1:55
Speaker 1: Well listen, one of the reasons we love to have
1:56
Speaker 1: you on is because your Preseason Bible is a must
2:02
Speaker 1: for football fans because you go so deep on every
2:05
Speaker 1: team every new edition, how these teams did against the spread,
2:10
Speaker 1: what they do on offense, defense, all the rest metrics
2:13
Speaker 1: that we're going to get into today. You are very
2:16
Speaker 1: graciously offering listeners of the favorites the Bible, Sharp Football Analysis,
2:23
Speaker 1: the Preseason Bible for one dollar use code Action. Go
2:29
Speaker 1: to Sharp dot Football. That's right, Sharp dot Football, Sharp
2:33
Speaker 1: dot Football.
2:34
Speaker 3: It'll have a link up the top. You can go
2:35
Speaker 3: right to the purchase page enter into code Action. Drops
2:39
Speaker 3: the price from thirty five dollars down to one dollar.
2:41
Speaker 3: So you're not going to get a better deal than that,
2:43
Speaker 3: and I can guarantee you're not going to find a
2:45
Speaker 3: better use today for a dollar than pre ordering the
2:49
Speaker 3: book for when it comes out the beginning of July.
2:52
Speaker 1: One dollar. The ROI on that dollar, God only knows.
2:56
Speaker 1: You've got to be wise, but that is going to
2:58
Speaker 1: be a huge ROI. All right, NFL schedule it's out.
3:02
Speaker 1: We're going to get to that in a second. Spring
3:05
Speaker 1: meetings happening as we speak. So many you know, rules
3:10
Speaker 1: changes being proposed. Everyone's talking about the touch push, but
3:13
Speaker 1: there's also proposals for playoff seating structure. Simon, I'll start
3:19
Speaker 1: with you, how do you feel about a change to
3:22
Speaker 1: the seating structure and how would that impact the way
3:26
Speaker 1: you think about not just the playoffs, but also how
3:30
Speaker 1: teams sort of work the regular season from a betting perspective.
3:36
Speaker 4: A bunch of differentids come out of the main part
3:38
Speaker 4: I don't like about is it's I feel like they're
3:40
Speaker 4: trying to take away something we all love is betters,
3:42
Speaker 4: which is home dogs in the playoffs, Like that eight
3:46
Speaker 4: to nine team in the playoffs at home playing against
3:49
Speaker 4: a team that's going to be much more talented, right,
3:52
Speaker 4: the five seed usually it is gonna better than the
3:53
Speaker 4: four seed. You know, it's it's taking something away from us, right,
3:58
Speaker 4: Like again, it rarely overall, right, but there's always those
4:02
Speaker 4: unique spots that there is a team that is terrible
4:05
Speaker 4: makes in the playoffs and somehow pulls off a huge upset,
4:07
Speaker 4: which we all talk about all the time. Beast quick like,
4:10
Speaker 4: that's the game that will forever stick out that any
4:12
Speaker 4: anyone that's a real big time better that Seahawks was
4:14
Speaker 4: a big dog playing against a Drew Brees led team, which,
4:18
Speaker 4: as it better, pretty simple, right, You're getting Drew Brees
4:21
Speaker 4: going from indoor to outdoors against a team that thrived
4:25
Speaker 4: on strong defense with a good run game. It was
4:27
Speaker 4: like very easy for Better to see, but the general
4:29
Speaker 4: public didn't see it that way. So those are ones
4:32
Speaker 4: that pop out to me. And you know, we saw
4:34
Speaker 4: last year with that great team down in Washington making
4:38
Speaker 4: that run chat. That was a team that you know,
4:40
Speaker 4: did it all on the road. So those are things
4:43
Speaker 4: I love and I love to see happen.
4:44
Speaker 2: But I get it.
4:46
Speaker 4: I'd be pissed too if I was a really good
4:47
Speaker 4: team and I'm them to play all my road games
4:50
Speaker 4: rather than you know, being at home. So pretty interesting shakeup.
4:53
Speaker 4: But I think that the Vikings Detroit, I don't know.
4:57
Speaker 4: I don't like that they're they're pro proposing in this
4:59
Speaker 4: actually might happen, But we'll see what the rule is.
5:01
Speaker 1: Chad.
5:02
Speaker 4: It's a big deal for sure.
5:03
Speaker 1: Though, Warren, you're a pretty connected guy. Do you have
5:07
Speaker 1: thoughts on if this has a real chance at passing?
5:12
Speaker 2: At first, I thought it was going to have a
5:14
Speaker 2: great chance.
5:15
Speaker 3: I think now that the pressure from Goodell is going
5:20
Speaker 3: to be very strong on this two pass.
5:23
Speaker 2: But I'm not.
5:23
Speaker 3: Quite sure that we're going to get enough buy in
5:26
Speaker 3: yet from some of the teams in those divisions that stink,
5:30
Speaker 3: like the AFC South for example, who love to have
5:33
Speaker 3: that four seed when they get to the playoffs and
5:36
Speaker 3: would lose that four seed if they passed this rule
5:40
Speaker 3: because that team then would probably be seven seed or
5:44
Speaker 3: six seed, and that's a big issue for those teams.
5:47
Speaker 3: But I felt like that this rule should pass because
5:52
Speaker 3: Goodell wants it to pass. I mean, as we're going
5:54
Speaker 3: to be talking about momentarily, this league is now built
5:57
Speaker 3: on making revenue and get getting people to watch their
6:01
Speaker 3: games on TV so that their ratings go high so
6:04
Speaker 3: that they can get new deals in the future. And
6:07
Speaker 3: this will make those Week eighteen games better. But to
6:10
Speaker 3: Simon's point, from betting on those games, one of the
6:12
Speaker 3: things that we are able to do is get all
6:15
Speaker 3: that insight a little bit before maybe the general public
6:18
Speaker 3: is is this coach going to rest this players week eighteen?
6:21
Speaker 3: Is this how many snaps? Is this first team going
6:24
Speaker 3: to play? Now, if they do this, we're going to
6:27
Speaker 3: have less teams resting in Week eighteen. I mean, there
6:30
Speaker 3: was a slide that they presented at the ownership meetings
6:33
Speaker 3: that showed that the Houston Texans went into Week eighteen
6:36
Speaker 3: locked into the fourth seed, but if this new system
6:40
Speaker 3: had passed, they could have finished anywhere from fourth to
6:44
Speaker 3: seventh seed.
6:45
Speaker 2: Last year.
6:45
Speaker 3: The La Rams went into Week eighteen last year as
6:49
Speaker 3: the number three or the four seed. They also decided
6:51
Speaker 3: to rest starters, but if this had passed, they could
6:54
Speaker 3: have been anywhere from the fourth to the seventh seed.
6:57
Speaker 3: Even the Philadelphia Eagles, they were locked in as the
6:59
Speaker 3: two in this adjusted system, they could have fallen into
7:02
Speaker 3: the third seed with a loss. And so those three
7:05
Speaker 3: teams decided to rest starters in Week eighteen. This new
7:10
Speaker 3: system would given them more of a desire to play guys,
7:14
Speaker 3: And so I actually think it might be like the
7:16
Speaker 3: Players Association that would feel the strongest like, hey, our
7:19
Speaker 3: guys should deserve a little bit of a rest. We
7:20
Speaker 3: don't need to change this up for the NFL to
7:22
Speaker 3: get new ratings, for the owners to line their pockets more,
7:25
Speaker 3: even though eventually it does trickle down to the players.
7:28
Speaker 2: So I think it's going to be fascinating. I totally disagree, though.
7:33
Speaker 3: Chad, with this contingent of people who think that this
7:36
Speaker 3: is going to Yes, it sort of makes divisions less important,
7:42
Speaker 3: but it's not going to throw everything out like this
7:46
Speaker 3: is to me, this is not something that is going
7:48
Speaker 3: to make teams less likely.
7:50
Speaker 2: To play hard.
7:51
Speaker 3: These teams in the strong divisions are still going to
7:54
Speaker 3: be playing to try to get their seeding, and the
7:56
Speaker 3: teams in the weak division. Do you think if a
7:58
Speaker 3: team is in first place in the AFC South and
8:01
Speaker 3: they're like, oh, well, we're not going to get a
8:03
Speaker 3: fourth place they're still going to be playing to not
8:05
Speaker 3: play the seventh place playoff schedule, the sixth place playoff schedule.
8:09
Speaker 3: They may not be able to get the fourth place spot,
8:12
Speaker 3: but they're still going to be trying to play for
8:13
Speaker 3: a higher seed. So I don't see how this makes
8:16
Speaker 3: the teams less likely to try hard.
8:21
Speaker 1: I like the idea. Actually, I like having more of
8:24
Speaker 1: an opportunity in the regular season to have one more
8:28
Speaker 1: week with a full slate that offers betting windows, right,
8:35
Speaker 1: because the scenario that you just talked about, Simon's becoming
8:39
Speaker 1: less and less. We love betting the playoffs. We killed
8:43
Speaker 1: in the playoffs this year, but I don't mind having
8:47
Speaker 1: a lot more games to look at in the final
8:50
Speaker 1: weekend of the regular season. I think that's kind of fantastic.
8:54
Speaker 4: Brother, I just took We just had the rams of
8:56
Speaker 4: the Dog against the Vikings, and that was amazing and
8:59
Speaker 4: we killed it, right, That's what I mean. So like
9:00
Speaker 4: that was a nice opportunity. We're gonna lose the opportunity, dude,
9:03
Speaker 4: that would have been a Viking to home game. That's
9:05
Speaker 4: I get where they're coming from again, all these different proposals,
9:08
Speaker 4: Each one's different, right. Some of them it only matters
9:10
Speaker 4: if a team's below five hundred. Some of them they're
9:13
Speaker 4: only going to recede after the first round. Like it's
9:16
Speaker 4: I mean, like you said, it's there's a lot of
9:18
Speaker 4: things being pushed today that the Toush push, Like it
9:21
Speaker 4: sounds like the toush push is more likely to get
9:23
Speaker 4: put through than this one is because it seems like
9:26
Speaker 4: a lot of owners fucking hate the toush push because
9:28
Speaker 4: their team can't do it, and the Eagles obviously couldn't
9:31
Speaker 4: couldn't be stopped. So like Green Bay being the team
9:33
Speaker 4: to go and propose this touch push ban, that makes
9:37
Speaker 4: more sense than other teams agreeing to this receding cause
9:40
Speaker 4: it's like I'd be bitter too. It's an automatic play
9:44
Speaker 4: that a team is a huge advantage on. You know,
9:47
Speaker 4: I get, I get why they're trying to ban that.
9:49
Speaker 4: I just don't, like you said, the revenue thing. That
9:51
Speaker 4: makes more sense than anything else for this. Try to
9:54
Speaker 4: change these playoff.
9:55
Speaker 1: Schedules, Warren, You've corner the market on the idea of
10:03
Speaker 1: rest advantage, and when you look at the schedule, now,
10:10
Speaker 1: how do you handicap the teams that have done that
10:15
Speaker 1: have gotten a rest advantage versus the teams that don't.
10:21
Speaker 2: Well. Rest certainly matters. There have been changes in.
10:25
Speaker 3: The way that the league has divvied up the schedule
10:29
Speaker 3: this year to help increase the equity a little bit.
10:32
Speaker 3: I do think that they did a little bit of
10:34
Speaker 3: a better job this year than they have in years past.
10:36
Speaker 3: Some years have come on your show this time every
10:40
Speaker 3: May pounded my hand on the table and said, this
10:43
Speaker 3: is ridiculous. To keep making it worse. I don't know
10:45
Speaker 3: where the you know, the light the end of the
10:47
Speaker 3: tunnel is. But things are good. Just ripping my hair
10:49
Speaker 3: out with how terrible it is. It's still not great,
10:53
Speaker 3: but it's better than what it was last year. I'll
10:55
Speaker 3: say that it has improved a little bit.
10:57
Speaker 2: Last year.
10:57
Speaker 3: There are still one hundred and one games being played
11:00
Speaker 3: where one team has a rest advantage over an opponent,
11:03
Speaker 3: which is the identical number to what it was last year,
11:06
Speaker 3: but the haves and the have nots, it's gotten a
11:09
Speaker 3: little bit closer to even so we're not seeing as
11:13
Speaker 3: many teams skewing to one end of the spectrum or
11:16
Speaker 3: the other.
11:17
Speaker 2: So that's a positive.
11:18
Speaker 3: We'll talk momentarily about some of the teams that got
11:21
Speaker 3: screwed the most or the most benefits. But one of
11:25
Speaker 3: the things that has changed, and the league sort of
11:29
Speaker 3: pointed this out when they were doing a little bit
11:31
Speaker 3: of analysis of the schedule and rest in the schedule,
11:35
Speaker 3: is that bye weeks have certainly become less beneficial, especially
11:39
Speaker 3: to bet on then they had in the past. In
11:42
Speaker 3: the past, prior to twenty eleven, we had major advantages
11:47
Speaker 3: from bye weeks, and you could cover the spread fifty
11:49
Speaker 3: six percent of the time if you were just betting
11:51
Speaker 3: on the team that was off of a bye That
11:53
Speaker 3: no longer exists because that twenty eleven CBA forces four
11:57
Speaker 3: mandatory days off of bye weeks, and there are teams
12:01
Speaker 3: and coaches that used to give their players one day
12:04
Speaker 3: off in a bye week and get ready for the
12:06
Speaker 3: next day.
12:06
Speaker 2: We got a big game coming up.
12:07
Speaker 3: Okay, everybody, you can go home, don't come back until
12:11
Speaker 3: you know, the day after tomorrow. But otherwise, now they're
12:14
Speaker 3: getting all this time off, the coaches are getting out
12:17
Speaker 3: of rhythm from a play calling perspective. I don't know
12:19
Speaker 3: about you guys, from the way that you've been betting
12:21
Speaker 3: things over the last couple of years, but I certainly
12:23
Speaker 3: have ran into a couple of problems where I would
12:26
Speaker 3: be liking a team for a certain game, knowing they're
12:29
Speaker 3: coming off of a bye, thinking that that would provide
12:32
Speaker 3: a little bit more of an edge, But what ends
12:33
Speaker 3: up happening is that team shows up rusty, out of sync.
12:37
Speaker 2: The play calling strategies.
12:39
Speaker 3: Are a little bit different than what they were finishing
12:41
Speaker 3: as they went into the buy and all of a sudden,
12:44
Speaker 3: I'm betting on a team that I wasn't expecting to
12:46
Speaker 3: be out there on the field, And that's happened several times,
12:49
Speaker 3: and you know, I just kicked myself out of yet
12:51
Speaker 3: I remember this team's coming off of a bye. Those
12:53
Speaker 3: teams are becoming a little bit more fade material hitting,
12:56
Speaker 3: you know, covering the spread like forty seven forty eight
12:58
Speaker 3: percent of the time as opposed to fifty six percent,
13:01
Speaker 3: which is massive. So identifying chad the situations where rest
13:07
Speaker 3: is beneficial and isolating the situations where rest may not
13:11
Speaker 3: be as beneficial, that's become a little bit more important
13:14
Speaker 3: over the last several seasons in my opinion. But there
13:17
Speaker 3: certainly are spots where teams are just league wide getting
13:23
Speaker 3: screwed with rest or getting rest advantages. Holistically, we know
13:28
Speaker 3: that short week road games are a bad thing for teams,
13:32
Speaker 3: but since twenty and twenty one, so just over the
13:35
Speaker 3: last four years, a team like the San Francisco forty
13:38
Speaker 3: nine ers has to play ten such games, whereas other
13:42
Speaker 3: teams have only played two such games. Over the last
13:44
Speaker 3: four years, so there isn't necessarily a desire to balance
13:50
Speaker 3: this stuff out at the minute level, and that's where
13:53
Speaker 3: you know, I would like to see it be more fair.
13:56
Speaker 3: But we now know that the NFL doesn't prioritize that.
14:01
Speaker 3: What they're prioritizing is big teams playing one another in
14:05
Speaker 3: big games, which is why we have ridiculous schedule this
14:07
Speaker 3: Christmas and Thanksgiving, and they're in it for the ratings
14:10
Speaker 3: they want to get, you know, they want to be
14:13
Speaker 3: able to promote that they broke the records ratings. I
14:16
Speaker 3: even heard Mike North come out and say, we want
14:18
Speaker 3: to hit fifty million viewers on the Thanksgiving night game
14:22
Speaker 3: where Dallas plays the Kansas City.
14:24
Speaker 2: Chiefs, which would break all of the records.
14:27
Speaker 3: And the reason that they're looking to do that is
14:29
Speaker 3: because they want to sell a standalone pay per view
14:32
Speaker 3: game on Dezone or on tob or god knows what
14:35
Speaker 3: other network, so they then can make more money in
14:37
Speaker 3: the future. So that's what they're prioritizing. They say, as
14:41
Speaker 3: long as rest isn't too inequitable, then it's okay. But
14:45
Speaker 3: who's to define too inequitable. It's their own decision as
14:50
Speaker 3: to what's too inequitable, and that's why we need to
14:52
Speaker 3: sort of act as watchdogs and look out for the
14:55
Speaker 3: schedule and look out for the rest and just make
14:57
Speaker 3: sure that they're not when they are screwing teams they
15:00
Speaker 3: like they are, and we'll discuss we point that out
15:02
Speaker 3: so that hopefully those teams get a little bit of
15:04
Speaker 3: benefit in the future.
15:07
Speaker 1: You brought up sort of it used to be an
15:11
Speaker 1: auto play and now it's becoming less and less of
15:14
Speaker 1: that to get bet these teams coming off the by
15:17
Speaker 1: Evan did some research for US. Last season, teams with
15:23
Speaker 1: a rest advantage were actually one game under five hundred
15:27
Speaker 1: fifty four to fifty five straight up, and then they
15:30
Speaker 1: were thirteen games under five hundred against the spread. That's
15:34
Speaker 1: the second worst mark against the spread since two thousand
15:37
Speaker 1: and by the way, since PASPO was repealed in twenty eighteen,
15:42
Speaker 1: fifty one percent straight up forty eight percent against the spread.
15:47
Speaker 1: So that is a losing bet since two thousand eighteen
15:53
Speaker 1: betting teams with the rest advantage. To your point, is
15:58
Speaker 1: it because they haven't been equitable? But before I actually
16:01
Speaker 1: let me ask sign in, how have you been thinking
16:04
Speaker 1: about teams coming off of buye or teams having rest
16:08
Speaker 1: advantages the last couple of years.
16:12
Speaker 4: It's a bunch of boys. Like I told you, I
16:14
Speaker 4: use Warren's book as a major tool for what I'm doing,
16:17
Speaker 4: and that is the sense of you know, adjusting to
16:20
Speaker 4: season win tolls and differences like that. Like you know
16:23
Speaker 4: that Eagles team last year, all the players talked about
16:26
Speaker 4: going to Brazil week one. They felt like they couldn't
16:29
Speaker 4: catch up and get like get their heads right until
16:32
Speaker 4: their bye week which was after week four, and you
16:35
Speaker 4: hear every player talk about it where it's like they
16:38
Speaker 4: couldn't catch their breath. It was just really intense going
16:40
Speaker 4: from your preseason trying to make the team get ready
16:43
Speaker 4: for the upcoming season. Two you're going to a foreign country.
16:46
Speaker 4: Now you're coming back, and now you're playing, you know,
16:48
Speaker 4: multiple road games, you have a home game here and there.
16:50
Speaker 4: It's a lot and the Bible helped them catch up.
16:53
Speaker 4: You look at this schedule this year, there's tons of
16:55
Speaker 4: teams having that exact scenario, long distance travel, a lot
16:58
Speaker 4: going on and a lot to deal with when they
17:00
Speaker 4: get back. And you know, for me, I remember last
17:03
Speaker 4: year one that really jumped out was one was on it.
17:06
Speaker 4: It was about the Chiefs. The Chiefs got the worst
17:08
Speaker 4: deal we've ever seen any football team get last year. Right,
17:11
Speaker 4: they had the most insane schedule Saturdays, Wednesdays. I mean,
17:14
Speaker 4: I think the only day they didn't play was Tuesday.
17:16
Speaker 4: They might even add a Tuesday game. I don't even know,
17:18
Speaker 4: but it was just insane how their schedules set up.
17:20
Speaker 4: They were perfect. So we talked on here about that
17:24
Speaker 4: where there's certain teams we do think it will affect,
17:26
Speaker 4: and there's other teams with veteran quarterback and veteran head
17:29
Speaker 4: coaches that their leadership can balance that, right, that rest
17:32
Speaker 4: disparity those other teams that it does affect. Where we
17:34
Speaker 4: just talked about a young Eagles team. They started two
17:37
Speaker 4: and two, right, they lost to a not very talented
17:39
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins and that Atlanta team, and then to a
17:42
Speaker 4: Saints team that we all know we're terrible. I mean,
17:45
Speaker 4: not the Saints, Tampa Bay. We were pretty good, but
17:47
Speaker 4: still close. Came with the Saints starts season. So it
17:50
Speaker 4: just shows out early in the year these teams they're
17:53
Speaker 4: not going to be the who they are, especially when
17:55
Speaker 4: they're traveling like they are, so you know, jumps out
17:57
Speaker 4: of the page. Chargers Chiefs. That's a team that's going
18:00
Speaker 4: to Brazil week one, right, Like we have a lot
18:02
Speaker 4: of things. People can look at Warren's book about that
18:04
Speaker 4: type of stuff where it's like those miles and that
18:07
Speaker 4: stuff does matter and can affect a lot of teams.
18:10
Speaker 4: So that's what's such a big deal to me reading
18:12
Speaker 4: war and stuff. It's like you have to look into
18:14
Speaker 4: each team's rest is spirit. Even though it's not the
18:16
Speaker 4: end all be all, it's a major tool to have
18:18
Speaker 4: on end.
18:20
Speaker 3: One thing, Chad, I do I do want to throw
18:22
Speaker 3: in just some data I know because you were mentioning
18:25
Speaker 3: Evans Evan Abrams great research. I just want to throw
18:28
Speaker 3: in some some nuggets heer real quick before we get
18:30
Speaker 3: into team discussion and other situations.
18:34
Speaker 2: Just the specifics.
18:35
Speaker 3: If you are off of a bye week from two
18:38
Speaker 3: thousand and two to twenty ten, you are covering the
18:41
Speaker 3: spread fifty six percent of the time seven point six
18:43
Speaker 3: percent ROI. Since twenty seventeen you're covering the spread forty
18:48
Speaker 3: six percent of the time minus twelve point two percent ROI.
18:51
Speaker 3: So a massive difference off of the buy the situations
18:55
Speaker 3: where you want to be looking and Simon mentioned this too,
18:57
Speaker 3: about the Chiefs. What I affect is that the better
19:01
Speaker 3: team usually obviously in these games, is going to be
19:04
Speaker 3: favored favorites. When they have extra rest, that edge becomes amplified.
19:10
Speaker 3: Bad teams that may have extra rest, it doesn't necessarily
19:13
Speaker 3: help them. They don't know the right strategies to use
19:17
Speaker 3: during that extra rest or to take advantage of to
19:20
Speaker 3: get to the level of the good team. So favorites
19:23
Speaker 3: tend to do a little bit better when they do
19:25
Speaker 3: have extra rest than underdogser than bad teams do. The
19:29
Speaker 3: other spots to think about here are the short week
19:32
Speaker 3: road games, which we are going to discuss short week
19:36
Speaker 3: road games. The last ten years, those teams that means
19:39
Speaker 3: like they're playing Sunday and then they play on Thursday
19:41
Speaker 3: on the road, which happens a lot. This year, those
19:44
Speaker 3: teams have covered the spread just forty eight point three
19:46
Speaker 3: percent of the time, which is minus seven point eight
19:48
Speaker 3: percent ROI over the last ten years.
19:51
Speaker 2: That's a big deal.
19:51
Speaker 3: Forty eight percent cover rate can be a solid spot
19:55
Speaker 3: to bet against these teams, especially when other factors play
19:58
Speaker 3: into it. If that's team instead of having goes on
20:01
Speaker 3: the road, instead of having short rest, they actually have
20:04
Speaker 3: a little bit extra rest in their opponent, all of
20:06
Speaker 3: a sudden they become fifty four point seven percent ROI,
20:10
Speaker 3: fifty four point seven percent cover rate, which is positive
20:13
Speaker 3: four point four percent ROI. A couple other spots to
20:16
Speaker 3: be aware of. It only happens once this year, three
20:19
Speaker 3: games in ten days. That last game is absolutely brutal.
20:23
Speaker 3: It's a very low sample size. It's going to happen
20:25
Speaker 3: to the Dallas Cowboys once this year, actually on Thanksgiving.
20:28
Speaker 3: Those teams when it's when it's happened, there's something like
20:32
Speaker 3: two and nine, two and ten in the last decade
20:35
Speaker 3: when they've played three games in ten days, which hasn't
20:38
Speaker 3: happened very frequently, and then games after playing on the
20:41
Speaker 3: road Sunday or Monday night and having to come home
20:44
Speaker 3: and play an opponent that has not had to do
20:47
Speaker 3: that forty eight point seven percent since twenty thirteen across
20:51
Speaker 3: over four hundred games. So we aren't talking about situations
20:55
Speaker 3: here that are going to scream, you know, sixty percent,
20:58
Speaker 3: sixty five percent hover rate when you talk about sample
21:01
Speaker 3: sizes that are a little bit larger, but it is
21:04
Speaker 3: meaningful when you're talking about and Simon knows this, you
21:08
Speaker 3: know this chat. I don't really bet other sports, but
21:11
Speaker 3: I do know that there are people out there that
21:13
Speaker 3: whether they're betting NBA rest spots or MLB rest spots
21:17
Speaker 3: or situations or team's gone on the road for all
21:19
Speaker 3: those games and then comes back home, like, there are
21:22
Speaker 3: spots and edges to be had just based upon general
21:25
Speaker 3: rest situations. So it is a key factor in the NFL.
21:30
Speaker 3: But the key is to understand when it is a
21:33
Speaker 3: factor and when it is not as big of a factor.
21:36
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting about that? And you guys have both
21:40
Speaker 1: just said this is the NFL disadvantages the marquee teams
21:47
Speaker 1: in these scenarios because they want to put the marquee
21:50
Speaker 1: teams in the highest profile slots, and that's automatically going
21:54
Speaker 1: to be impossible to navigate to get them both rest
21:58
Speaker 1: and marquee slot. The teams that we've already talked about,
22:01
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the Chiefs, Historically, the Niners have gotten screwed
22:06
Speaker 1: on this, right, like the teams that the Eagles last year, Right,
22:10
Speaker 1: those are the teams that we're always thinking about. So
22:15
Speaker 1: it's fascinating to me that all of a sudden you've
22:18
Speaker 1: got these insights and windows into Hey, these might be
22:21
Speaker 1: teams that even if historically we want to back them,
22:25
Speaker 1: this is a very specific spot where you might want
22:29
Speaker 1: to fade them because there could be value, especially if
22:32
Speaker 1: they're coming off some high profile games in which they
22:36
Speaker 1: might have won. So Warren, looking at the schedule, who wins,
22:40
Speaker 1: who loses when it comes to rest and spots right now.
22:45
Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you one spot that's terrible. This team
22:48
Speaker 3: is fine from an overall rest advantage. But like just
22:51
Speaker 3: an example of how the NFL doesn't pay enough attention
22:53
Speaker 3: to this. The Cincinnati Bengals have to play on the
22:56
Speaker 3: road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And that's the
23:00
Speaker 3: third straight year that they have to play on the
23:02
Speaker 3: road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And how many
23:05
Speaker 3: times have the Ravens gone into Cincinnati to play on
23:09
Speaker 3: the road on a Thursday game. One time since two
23:11
Speaker 3: thousand and six, So we're talking one time in the
23:13
Speaker 3: last nineteen years. But Cincinnati has had to do it
23:17
Speaker 3: now three straight years in Baltimore. By the way, Baltimore
23:20
Speaker 3: nine to zero hosting Thursday night home games. Most teams
23:24
Speaker 3: are really good when they host Thursday night games. Baltimore
23:26
Speaker 3: is terrible when they go on the road on Thursday.
23:29
Speaker 3: That nine and oh team at home turns into two
23:31
Speaker 3: and seven on the road, but they get to host Cincinnati.
23:34
Speaker 3: It's unfair that they get to do that three straight
23:37
Speaker 3: years in a row. The NFL needs to right that
23:41
Speaker 3: wrong next season. But you could try to make up
23:43
Speaker 3: for it, like they're doing with the San Francisco forty
23:45
Speaker 3: nine ers rest this year. They're one of the top
23:47
Speaker 3: teams in the league after being screwed by minus twenty
23:50
Speaker 3: days or worse each of the last two seasons. We
23:52
Speaker 3: talked about them last year on your show Minus twenty
23:56
Speaker 3: two day net rest differential I think it was and
23:58
Speaker 3: obviously their season on Repdill mainly due to injuries, but
24:01
Speaker 3: rest didn't help. But you know, it's one thing to
24:06
Speaker 3: go right the wrong, you know, a couple of years later.
24:09
Speaker 3: The issue is trying to make it as balanced as
24:11
Speaker 3: possible in the moment and not have these situations happen
24:14
Speaker 3: because coaches careers are on the line.
24:17
Speaker 2: You know, a couple of.
24:18
Speaker 3: Bad seasons because in some part rest is factoring into
24:22
Speaker 3: the fact that you're unable to win some of these games,
24:24
Speaker 3: and all of a sudden you're out of a job,
24:26
Speaker 3: So it might help your successor when they write the
24:28
Speaker 3: wrong a couple of years from now, but it's not
24:29
Speaker 3: going to help you in the moment. The Detroit Lions
24:32
Speaker 3: are one of these teams that really stands out this season.
24:35
Speaker 3: It's ironic because they have such a brutal schedule. They
24:38
Speaker 3: have one of the most difficult schedules of opponents in
24:41
Speaker 3: the NFL. But the NFL doesn't define who you're going
24:44
Speaker 3: to play. That's all predetermined based upon where you finished
24:48
Speaker 3: last year and a rolling calendar that schedules out in
24:51
Speaker 3: advanced years in advance what divisions you're going to play.
24:54
Speaker 2: The Lions are screwed from a strength of.
24:57
Speaker 3: Opponent perspective, but the NFL of them eight games where
25:02
Speaker 3: they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Eight games
25:05
Speaker 3: has never happened before in NFL history. This is an
25:07
Speaker 3: example of where while the league has improved, they're scheduling
25:10
Speaker 3: a little bit, there are still areas that are notable
25:13
Speaker 3: and that they could improve further. Never before has a
25:16
Speaker 3: team played more than six games in a season with
25:19
Speaker 3: a rest advantage over their opponent. Destroit doesn't play just seven,
25:23
Speaker 3: they play eight. On top of that, they only play
25:25
Speaker 3: one game where they're at a rest disadvantage, thus a
25:28
Speaker 3: net of plus seven games where they have a rest
25:31
Speaker 3: advantage over their opponent. They play five different games against
25:36
Speaker 3: an opponent who's coming off a Monday night football game
25:39
Speaker 3: on a short week, and those five games. You think
25:43
Speaker 3: about it, and I've talked to some players. When they
25:46
Speaker 3: get home on Monday night, it's actually Tuesday morning at
25:50
Speaker 3: that point in time, even if it's a home game,
25:52
Speaker 3: they're getting in Tuesday morning. They're starting their rehab. The
25:55
Speaker 3: Lions playing on a Sunday at one pm. They have
25:59
Speaker 3: all evening Sunday to rest and rehab and start watching film.
26:04
Speaker 3: They have all day Monday to rest and rehab, watch
26:07
Speaker 3: the tape from yesterday, make their adjustments, figure out their
26:11
Speaker 3: game plan, and then they get Monday night to watch
26:13
Speaker 3: the opponent that they're going to play. While the Lions
26:16
Speaker 3: are still rehabbing, this other team that they're playing has
26:19
Speaker 3: less time to rehab and also has less time to
26:22
Speaker 3: make adjustments based upon what happened. They're instantly looking forward
26:26
Speaker 3: to the next game as opposed to making some of
26:28
Speaker 3: those corrections based upon how they performed on Monday night.
26:31
Speaker 3: So it's a minor advantage. It's only one day of rest,
26:35
Speaker 3: but it is impactful over the course of you know,
26:39
Speaker 3: these minor edges added up over the course of entire season.
26:42
Speaker 3: No team has ever played five opponents off of Monday
26:45
Speaker 3: Night Football like the Detroit Lions are going to play.
26:47
Speaker 3: The other interesting factor about the Lions schedule specifically is
26:51
Speaker 3: the comparison and unfortunately, Chad, you know, your Chicago Bears
26:55
Speaker 3: are there in the NFC North, the comparison of the
26:57
Speaker 3: Detroit Lions and how they stack up with the rest
26:59
Speaker 3: of the North. Because if you look at my net
27:02
Speaker 3: rest edges in the article that I wrote, a lot
27:05
Speaker 3: of the teams in the NFC West are up at
27:08
Speaker 3: the top, the forty nine Ers, the Rams, the Cardinals.
27:11
Speaker 3: The NFL tried to help out the forty nine ers,
27:14
Speaker 3: I think this year, right the wrongs of those minus
27:16
Speaker 3: twenty days, and so they also ended up helping out
27:20
Speaker 3: some of the other teams in their division simultaneously. But
27:24
Speaker 3: for the NFC North, the Lions are the only team
27:27
Speaker 3: that's getting these edges. If you look at their division
27:30
Speaker 3: games with a rest edge, they have eight. No other
27:33
Speaker 3: team in their division has four. Your Chicago Bears only
27:36
Speaker 3: play two games would they rest disadvantage? I just mentioned
27:39
Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears. Sorry, the Detroit Lions play only one
27:42
Speaker 3: such game. The Bears play five games. Would they rest disadvantage?
27:46
Speaker 3: And so if you look at the net, how many
27:49
Speaker 3: net games of rest advantage do you have? The Lions
27:52
Speaker 3: are at plus seven, eight and one plus seven, The
27:56
Speaker 3: Bears and everybody else is zero or worse. In fact,
27:59
Speaker 3: the Bears are minus three. So that's just games with
28:03
Speaker 3: a rest advantage the bit net games. The Lions are
28:06
Speaker 3: at plus seven and your Chicago Bears are minus three.
28:09
Speaker 3: We're talking about a ten game span in a seventeen
28:13
Speaker 3: game season. So I just don't feel like things like
28:17
Speaker 3: that are necessarily fair, pre flop and equitable, and the
28:22
Speaker 3: league should be looking at trying to make things a
28:24
Speaker 3: little bit more balanced, specifically within divisions, so that teams
28:28
Speaker 3: don't have such wide sweeping edges in rest like they
28:32
Speaker 3: do right now in the NFC.
28:34
Speaker 1: North Simon feels a little bit like a conspiracy theory
28:38
Speaker 1: from the NFL.
28:41
Speaker 4: It isn't. It isn't though, because you know, some of
28:45
Speaker 4: that has lots of football debates. I feel like nine
28:47
Speaker 4: percent of my life is conversations about football people.
28:49
Speaker 2: Call me off season.
28:50
Speaker 4: I think I called me to catch up, Chad, and no,
28:52
Speaker 4: they're calling me to give me some crazy idea and
28:54
Speaker 4: have a conversation about football. And you know, we always talk,
28:57
Speaker 4: especially with the old heads, about the Cowboys, like that's
28:59
Speaker 4: such a polarizing team that you know, even when they're
29:02
Speaker 4: not that good, they're still going to get four to
29:04
Speaker 4: five primetime games, and if they have a little bit
29:06
Speaker 4: of talent, they might get six or seven. Like that's
29:09
Speaker 4: just a team the NFL loves. But because of that,
29:12
Speaker 4: pros professionals have been on a steady fade of them
29:16
Speaker 4: since the nineties, ever since they become America's team. Really
29:20
Speaker 4: they're always in these tough spots where they're not going
29:22
Speaker 4: to be great for a team, especially for their season,
29:25
Speaker 4: and this season it's historical for them. The Cowboys are
29:28
Speaker 4: a team that have four Thursday games. That doesn't even
29:31
Speaker 4: sound real when you say it out loud, but it's true.
29:34
Speaker 4: And like it's the NFL.
29:35
Speaker 2: You could say this.
29:36
Speaker 4: Cowboys can say we have a raw deal. They're screwing
29:38
Speaker 4: us here, and I would agree they really are, because
29:40
Speaker 4: Warren's telling you, like that Thursday game players talk all
29:44
Speaker 4: the time their bodies ain't right till that Thursday Friday
29:48
Speaker 4: after a Sunday game. So they have four this year
29:52
Speaker 4: of short weeks, and you know they've finagled it right.
29:55
Speaker 4: They give them back to back Thursdays, they try to
29:56
Speaker 4: make it work for them. But overall, that's something that
29:59
Speaker 4: really jumps out to me. That's team I love this season.
30:01
Speaker 4: The Cowboys, a team who's win total. I've been very
30:03
Speaker 4: heavy on a team that I bet for division and
30:06
Speaker 4: you're seeing why because they have a tough schedule as well,
30:08
Speaker 4: Like towards the end of the season. Why their win
30:10
Speaker 4: total is what it is chat seven and a half,
30:12
Speaker 4: eight and a half because the NFL screws them with
30:14
Speaker 4: the schedule because they are America's team and they're not
30:17
Speaker 4: getting any favors where the NFC East is playing really
30:20
Speaker 4: tough out division games this season. So that's something I
30:23
Speaker 4: really can't wait to dive into. And I get Warren's
30:24
Speaker 4: book about his outlook on this Cowboys team, because that
30:27
Speaker 4: was something that jumped out for me right away, where
30:28
Speaker 4: it's like, man, I thought I was getting in sane
30:31
Speaker 4: the good value. You see their schedule. Once it game
30:32
Speaker 4: I goes okay, I get why that's such a low number.
30:35
Speaker 4: All Right, there's a lot of hype for Washington Eagles,
30:38
Speaker 4: but they also have a very tough schedule this upcoming
30:40
Speaker 4: season in Dallas.
30:41
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of
30:43
Speaker 1: The Favorites Thursday with part two of our episode with
30:47
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp. Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever you
30:51
Speaker 1: get your podse rate, review, subscribe, loops five stars, say
30:54
Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is get until next time. Love You.
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