Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/14/26: Houthis Take New Strait, Lebron James Gambling Ads, Midterms

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9/14/26: Houthis Take New Strait, Lebron James Gambling Ads, Midterms · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, ready or not, 2024 is here and we
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: can up our game for this critical election.
• 0:08
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• 0:17
  Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Turning now to the Houthis and the shocking developments in
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: the Middle East. Let's go ahead and start with some
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: of the video that's come out of Yemen, where you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: can see Houthi forces that are seizing U.S. military assets
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: that were sold or given to Saudi Arabia. Here you
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: see similar, you know, I mean, A lot of these
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: guys walking around in sandals, the AK-47s, hanging out on
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: the beach, marching down the street. All of this would
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: all be funny if it were not dramatically funded by
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: the United States, the Saudi military. A total and complete
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: collapse that has been accompanied by a huge strategic disaster
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: for Saudi Arabia and for the U.S., which is total
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: seizure and control now. of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Let's
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: put C2 up there on the screen. It has now
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: been completely confirmed. Red Sea nations watch as Houthi sees
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: the entire Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: It is an economic bottleneck now for.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Egypt, security risks for Sudan, for Somalia, and leverage for Eritrea,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: for Djibouti. You have a lot of African nations where
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: this has dramatically changed the maritime bottleneck, effectively giving them veto.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: Power over whatever they want.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: This comes on the heels of a genuine shocking situation
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: for Saudi Arabia because it's not the fact that their forces,
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: back forces, collapse in Yemen. It's that this is combined
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: now with the damage to the east-west pipeline. Let's go
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: ahead and put C4, please, on the screen just to
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: show you all initial estimates coming out. 4% of the
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: entire global oil supply is now taken off of this
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Saudi pipeline. This already happened after Saudi Arabia admitted it
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: had exported less oil than at any time since 1990.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: And they say they will run.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Out of oil stocks for exports if it doesn't restart
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: major pipeline within days. The current estimate that is coming
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: out of Saudi Arabia is apparently weeks for this pipeline,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: which means that they will have to dial down the
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: amount they pump out of the ground.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: Which is very, very difficult to start back up.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: Obviously, a lot going on, but you have initial damage
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: previously to Aramco, to the pipeline.
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is a genuine choke point, which.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Is happening, and all of it is reflected in the
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: current price of oil as we are currently recording. It's
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: running $ 109 a barrel at Brent Crude. Let's see where
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: we're at in terms of our national average, $ 4.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: 31 a barrel.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Gallons up 30 cents already just in the last like
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: two weeks or so.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: And diesel right now. Oh, my God. Current average diesel
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: 623 a gallon. It was six dollars last week. It'll
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: be seven. It'll be seven pretty soon.
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: Wow.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: That is extraordinarily dire. And it does feel like, you know,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: there's that. Who is it that has a famous quote?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: The market will remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: I think it's an apocryphal one.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Anyway, you know, and it has felt a bit like
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: that because we've been watching the, even with more oil
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: and gas getting out of the Strait of Hormuz, it's
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: still not what it was. So of course, for a
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: long time, we've been talking to Rory, like what is
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: going on here? How come the market is not reacting
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: more to the.
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: State of affairs?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: And there were all sorts of cushions that were in place.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: You had China, which dramatically reduced their buying. We had
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Our strategic petroleum reserve that we were drawing, they were
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: able to use this east-west pipeline to get more barrels
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: out of the region via the Bab al-Mandab.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: Strait as well.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: And now it feels like all of those previous pieces
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: which cushioned the blow are falling away. And Trump's ability
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: to market manipulate just through jawboning has also seemingly fallen away.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is openly admitting now gas prices are
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: not coming down before the midterms.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: And who knows when they will come down. He leaves
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: that part out.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: He claims that As soon as the midterms are over,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: then things are going to go back and the war
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: is going to be over. There's no explanation of how
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: or why that would happen exactly. But in any case,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: now you have obviously the seizure and the successful offensive
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: by what we call in the West the Houthis. You
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: have East-West pipelines struck, by the way, not by the Houthis.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: It appears by Iraqi militias aligned with Iran.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: You have China attacking. reentering at a higher rate.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Obviously, our strategic petroleum reserve has already been drawn down.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So the situation is looking fairly dire, which is why
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: you see those gas prices, those per barrel oil prices
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: ticking up and up and up. And by the way,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the overall stock market is down, related more likely to
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the AI conversation we were having previously.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: It's funny you bring that up. I was about to
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: say that.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: I go, this could be, I mean, I know lots
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: of this could be it. But let's say you have
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: unilateral tech slowdown, which is propping up the entire U.S.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: Economy.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: People start to wake up as I mean, look at
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: my genuine reaction to diesel going 623 a gallon this morning.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: It was six last week. And that was a record.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: That was the all time high. I'm like 623 a gallon.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: Let's combine that with San Diego. Put C5 on the
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: screen here. We're reaching things we didn't even know was possible.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: The California gas station has now hit $ 9. 99 a gallon
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: with San Diego customers who are now giving themselves solace
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: that it literally cannot get worse other than $ 9.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: 99 because of the way, apparently, that the sign is.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the signs only have three digits, so you can't
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: go to $ 10.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: You actually just can't go to $ 10. So that appears
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: to be the limit of what they're allowed to charge
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: you for now.
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: I'm sure... A sign guy will fix that next.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Week before the diesel price is going to resolve.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: That's where we're at.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: So you got crushing consumer sentiment. There was inflation reading
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: that came out, I think, on Friday. The University of
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Michigan survey was disastrous. You've got $ 4. 31 a gallon gasoline.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what it is in California. Is
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: it $ 6 yet?
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Yes, $ 6 exactly this morning, $ 6.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: 00. gallon right now in California, $ 6.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: 23 diesel national average. I mean, that combined with a
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: genuine downturn in the U.S. stock market, let's say we
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: had a correction of 10% or something.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: We're living in a whole universe, I think, at that point.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: That would actually lead to I mean, I can't even
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: imagine like you would have Federal Reserve behavior. Unemployment could skyrocket.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, even right now, the only thing really propping
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: up our economy and hiring is health care spending. And
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: as you and I both know, with recession, if when
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: income goes down, people unfortunately don't seek out health care.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: So there's all kinds of downstream effects that could happen
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: right now directly as a result now of this Bab
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: al-Mandeb situation and the general strategic picture. in Iran, which is,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: this is part of their playbook. This is what they wanted.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: They want the dial continuing to turn up. Every day
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: that we get closer to the midterm election, they want
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: to see that diesel price go higher.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's exactly right.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: And Trump was hoping that he could sort of put
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: this conflict on the back burner and people would become
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: comfortable with maybe roughly $ 4 a gallon gas, but it
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: wouldn't go that much higher. And then guess what? When
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: you're in a war, your opponent also gets a say.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: And so that's part of what's going on here. We've
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: been long saying that it doesn't make any sense that
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Iran would just accept that state of affairs and do
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: nothing in response.
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: Now, the Houthis are their own actors.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: They are in this war with the previous government of Yemen,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: backed by Saudi Arabia. So they have their own domestic
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: priorities here in terms of trying to claim all of
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the territory in Yemen. But it's not crazy to imagine
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: either that there is some coordination here with Iran because
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: we know they are closely aligned. Iran has helped them
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: with technical and military assistance in the past because there
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: is a question of, OK, well, why now? Why did
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: they decide to go on the march now? What was
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: it that happened here? The other wild thing is that
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: reportedly a bunch of their military adversaries, a lot of
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: them were what they're calling like ghost soldiers who were
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: being paid but weren't doing anything because they didn't really
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: believe in the cause.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: Certainly Afghanistan, 2.0.
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: Totally.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I was listening to Professor Morandi this morning on with
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Glenn Deason, and he was talking about how part of
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: the victory for Ansar Allah or the Houthis is that
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: they were very assertive in terms of standing with Palestine.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And that really raised their esteem with their own population
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: and throughout the region. So, you know, if you have
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: people who are actually committed to you, who are willing
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: to fight and aren't just collecting a paycheck as a
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: ghost soldier, that is going to give you a tremendous
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: advantage on the battlefield. And I do think that is
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: part of what's going on here. You know, another part
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: of what's going on, put C7 up on the screen,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: some reporting from the Wall Street Journal, is Iran is
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: now working overtime producing ballistic missiles again. Intelligence findings say
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Tehran is assembling stockpiled components again. into weapons in underground facilities.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: They say despite heavy attacks on their missile sites and
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: industrial facilities during the initial phase of the war, Iran
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: has been busy assembling liquid propellant missiles, which have to
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: be fueled just before launch, as well as solid propellant missiles,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: which can be stored ready to fire, according to officials.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Points to activity at several underground sites. They're also attempting
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: to build new underground assembly points to avoid getting struck again.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: So they are still able to build these ballistic missiles.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: They have restarted production. Meanwhile, of course, we've.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Got all kinds of problems on our side with regard
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: to munitions and with regard to missile interceptors in particular,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: which certainly were.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: Exacerbated by this last.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Round of fire where we could all watch the videos
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: of how many of our interceptors were being shot in
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: order to be able to deter the Iranian attack. Admiral
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Bradley Cooper, however, was asked whether he is concerned about
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: munition stockpiles, and he had this to say.
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: This is C6.
• 10:06
  Speaker 6: You have testified about this, a shortage of munitions, especially
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: to defend against Iranian missile and drone attacks. That's become
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: a big issue in this war. How concerned are you
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: about that right now?
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: I'm not concerned at all. We're well armed and ready
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: for any contingency.
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: So even though there are estimates that the U.S. has
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: already fired 45 percent of its Patriot missiles and used
• 10:29
  Speaker 6: more than half of its THAAD missiles, you're not worried
• 10:32
  Speaker 6: about any future threats?
• 10:33
  Speaker 7: I'm not.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Super comforting.
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: You believe him? I actually do. You know why?
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Because he's not the president. His job is just to
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: worry about CENTCOM. So he definitely has all the munitions
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: he need. The question is, is does the PACOM guy,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: the Indo-PACOM commander or Southcom or any of these other people,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: they're like, whoa, Mr. CENTCOM, of course you have everything
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: because you stole all of our stuff.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: So you should go.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: There's an interesting piece that ran in The New York
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Times over the weekend, and it was basically about how
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the vice president has been calling all of these sub commanders,
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: bypassing Pete Hegseth and just being like, give it to
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: me straight.
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: What's really happening?
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: And of course, this idiot Cooper, I mean, he's pro-Israel moron,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: you know, I've heard all kinds of stories about him.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: But the PACOM people and others, they're ones who are like,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: they're like, sir, I'll shoot it to you straight.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: This is a real problem. Yeah, this is bad.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Well, the other thing to keep in mind here is
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that Hegseth and Trump have both, you know, culled their
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: staff and Hegseth culled the military based on people who
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: will be loyal. I mean, that's really been the criteria
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: for remaining in your post. And so there's no way
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: this guy could go on television and tell the truth
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: if he did have concerns, because then he'd be out
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: of a job. So it doesn't exactly foster unvarnished truth-telling
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: when you have enforced this sort of code of silence
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: and demands for loyalty up to and including require that you,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: you know, lie to serve Trump or to serve Hegsat's wishes.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Another thing, we didn't have the time for the element,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: but I just saw it, is that the Chinese imports
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: are beginning to rebound.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 12:10
  Speaker 8: Which.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: You could say a couple of things. I mean, the
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: conflict's been going on for more than six months.
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: So maybe their stockpiles are low and they just need
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: to buy more oil.
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: The other thing is, I'm Xi Jinping. I've got all
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: these annoyances with Donald Trump. You know, you burn a
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: few billion buying some oil, get those gas prices cranking
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: here in the U.S., make sure that, you know, you
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: just twist the screws a little bit in your favor.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Wouldn't be the worst dollar that you ever spent if
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: you're China. And on top of that, you're providing this
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: new technology that's to the Iranians. Let's put that last
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: piece on the screen, C7, up here. Iran is producing
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: ballistic missiles again. Intelligence findings say Tehran is now assembling
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: stockpiled components into weapons in underground facilities. Combine that with
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: a major story that came out over the weekend, which
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: was the Chinese providing targeting information specifically on that Jordanian
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: base to Iran and Trump being asked about it. And
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: he basically had to brush it off being like, yeah,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I'm sure they have intelligence. We have intelligence, too.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is impotence.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: You can't do anything about it. First of all, it's
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: obviously correct. But second, it's like, what are you going
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: to do? Are you going to sanction them?
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, you can't. It's like, look at our economy.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: In fact, they're, not them, but together, they're all in
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: a much better strategic position to outlast and to push
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: against the United States. Their population's willing to suffer, and
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: we shouldn't diminish that. Iranian people are suffering right now.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: They've got gas lines. They've got Electricity problems. They've got
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: economies just nationalized, complete turmoil. But they're literally under attack
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: and their leader was killed. Whereas all we want is
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: $ 2. 82 a gallon gasoline. We don't care about what's going
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: on over there. And we definitely want to be paying
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: for what this is on top of the price.
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: With this.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: So I think considering our first coverage about AI, already
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: this morning, I mean, it's still very, very early.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: But looking.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean, the market is dropping like
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: a rock right now. Who knows exactly where it could be?
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: We could end up like maybe 1% or 2% down
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: on the entire S & P 500. On the actual
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: tech stocks, let's see, QQQ is already down by about 1%.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: It's not horrible, but we'll continue to see where those
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: things continue to be. But if you combine that with very,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: very high physical inputs of gasoline and diesel, that is
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: obviously just, you know, it doesn't need a genius to
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: say depression very easily.
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: I would say the stock market dropping after all of
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: these guys come out and sound the alarm and say
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: they're going to unilaterally slow down fits very uncomfortably with
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the idea that this is all hype to boost their
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: stock and potentially increase their IPOs. But yeah, I mean,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: the last thing I'll say on this is the Iranians
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: have long had their eyes on the midterm because they
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: understand that the War here is unpopular. They understand that
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the American consumer is very, very sensitive to gas prices,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: that the ripple effects of diesel throughout the economy are
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: going to be quite grave. So I would certainly expect
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: that they continue to increase the pressure here, you know,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: between now and November to try to further imperil the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: political horizon for Trump, because that's something that they've, you know,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: basically outright claimed as part of their war strategy.
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, why wouldn't you?
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: And especially with the screws that are all tightening right now.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: All right, let's get to gambling. Okay, let's turn now
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: to gambling. So you might think, you know, just because
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: it's me that we're covering this, and that's largely true,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: but it's also because it is the day after NFL Sunday.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: So casual fans, you watch the games, you have a
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: good time, hang out, maybe eat some unhealthy food, and
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: that's the worst of your problems. But increasingly, what has
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: now happened is a deluge of gambling advertising from the
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: traditional sportsbooks now to the so-called prediction markets. And just
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: to take a step back and remind us, the Trump
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: administration has effectively legalized gambling in all 50 states, making
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: it available to Texas and California, two of the states
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: with the largest population. So for the first time, in
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: American history, this was the first NFL Sunday where you
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: could gamble in all 50 states.
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: The numbers are in.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: The numbers are in, and they're absolutely shocking to nobody
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: if you don't see the rise of this addiction.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: Let's go and put D3 up here on the screen.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: A record of some $ 14. 1 billion was bet on prediction
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: markets just in the last week. Sports that were particularly
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: favorable were for these prediction markets included not only the
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: US Open tennis match, but also, as they say, the
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: start of the NFL regular season. So that puts you
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: at tens of billions of dollars in a single week
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: that were gambled on these platforms, you might then wonder,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: what exactly are all of these bets going towards? And
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: you would be absolutely shocked to learn that a huge
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: portion of these bets are going to traditional combos, otherwise
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: known as a parlay bet, of which you might as
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: well just be handing your money over to the sportsbooks.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: This comes on the heels of an advertising push where–
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: this is crystal clear. We have no shame in our
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: society anymore. You got LeBron James who the current whatever
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: net worth estimator has him around– whether it's $ 1. 1 billion
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: or $ 800 million, it doesn't make a difference. He never
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: has to work a day in his life.
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: Eli Manning. I mean, you know, the Manning brothers and
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: all that.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: They've got enough Bud Light money in the can that
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: they could literally do nothing.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: They do this for a choice. They do it for
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: the paycheck. You got Spike Lee of all people here.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah. The guy who made Malcolm X is out here
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: shilling for Polymarket. So that's the ad I'm about to
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: show you. Here's LeBron James appearing. By the way, he
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: followed this up with his Polymarket picks for the NFL season.
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: Here was his ad for Polymarket. Coming in hot. It's
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: live training. You got to stand your toes.
• 18:02
  Speaker 7: Morning, Eli.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: What up, LeBron?
• 18:05
  Speaker 7: Always be planning for Eli Manning.
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: Just to hit that button. And now we play.
• 18:10
  Speaker 7: Beautiful day to be great, y'all.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Love it.
• 18:13
  Speaker 6: Captain.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Let's get to it.
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. What up, King?
• 18:19
  Speaker 8: What up, baby?
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: Let's get to it.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Man, Craig from The Office. How could you, Craig? How
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: could you?
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: So you got, I mean, just look at that. All
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: these people, paychecks that are out there. And again, if you,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: it's so funny, they call themselves prediction markets. You can
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: literally go on their website and live bet the spread
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: per quarter. So like the spread, like literally about who's
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: going to be up per quarter, all the future profit.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: It is completely indistinguishable from any of the sports books.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: In fact, I downloaded the Polymarket app at one point
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: on Saturday. or sorry, on Thursday, whenever the Rams and
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: the 49ers were playing, there were 180,000 people in the
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: live chat who were live chatting about the trades that
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: they were making.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: And they even gamified it.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: So that there's a little tag next to your name
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: about how much money you have on the game and
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: in which way. And they're all shit-talking each other and
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: then encouraging each other to put even more on parlay.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: I've never seen anything like this in my life.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: Like this collaborative, it's literally like a streaming thing where
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: everybody's just encouraging them to pour even more money. Now,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: we put the $ 14 billion number first. We showed you
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: how LeBron and these others are doing this, but there
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: are all these other competitors. And so my new favorite
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: is called Novig, which decided that gambling, shilling for the
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: sin of gambling was not enough. Let's combine it with
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: soft core pornography of Sidney Sweeney.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: So here, take a listen. Think you know sports?
• 19:52
  Speaker 7: Prove it.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: Novick is just sports. So they wanted to show just sports.
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that's America now.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: It's just Sidney Sweeney being naked and shilling for just sports.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I believe she made some quote where she was like, oh,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: it's better because it's just sports. You can't bet on
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: what color my underwear is. I'm like, well, why don't
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: we just advocate for something so we don't have markets
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: for that literally at all?
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: How about that?
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: And so that's up in Times Square.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Nobody blinks an eye over any of this stuff. All
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: these celebrities, you got Timothee Chalamet, all of these athletes,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: the U.S. Open, which you're a huge fan of. They
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: partner directly with Kalshi.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is CNN. CNN is partner directly with Kalshi.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: There's a rumor that The Times was like this close
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: to signing a Kalshi deal.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: Are you serious?
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: But their employees were like, we can't. Do this.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, I just.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: It's just to stick on LeBron for a second. Like,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: here's this guy who has more money than he.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Could ever spend.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: Right? Like, what... Yeah, why?
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Why?
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, if we can resist selling out to Kaushy
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: and Polymer, like, how is this hard for you?
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: And then, to me, it's just.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: So tragic because obviously LeBron has all of these fans
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: who are young men. I mean, that's why he's such
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: a prize for them to sign because he is so
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: influential with the group that is the most in hock
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: to these gambling companies that are those trading companies.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: And so it's.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: LeBron has done a lot of things for his hometown
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: and really, you know, tried to uplift people who struggle there, etc.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: And now here you are backing and vouching for this
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: company that is directly predatory. This leads to bankruptcies. I mean,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: the overwhelming majority of people are going to lose money
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: on these bets. And then you have a growing subset
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: that are actively addicted that this will fuel and can
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: lead to just disaster and ruin in their lives.
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: It's so hard for me to understand.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: But I think it just does come down to the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: culture where it is just accepted. You know, all the
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the so many of the YouTubers, the media, like everyone
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: around you is doing it and no one's batting an eye.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: So you think, well, why shouldn't I know? It is
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: interesting when he posted this on Twitter. A lot of
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the comments were very negative and really disgusted. But, you know,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I guess the overwhelming cultural sentiment is in favor and
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: comfortable with it.
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: So he doesn't bat an eye.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Look, as I put somebody was talking and being like,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: it's so hypocritical. People are going after LeBron James. Michael
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Jordan famously had no gambling scandals. I'm like, let me
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: tell you something. Michael Jordan is 10 times more honorable.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: He lost his own money, all right, on his stupid
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: ass bets. Whereas LeBron is taking cash money, encouraging people
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: to put their hard-earned money at risk while they're gambling.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: He's not the one who's actually doing any of these gambling.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: The other thing that drives me absolutely crazy about this
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: is the ad reads. Let's put D4 up on the screen.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: I was listening to a sports podcast, and this is
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: literally the ad read I got. They go, with Polymarket,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: you're a trader, not a bettor. It's legal in all
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: 50 states. That's why you need to use my code
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: to get $ 50 in free bets. As I said, they
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: go on to discuss the trades of the spread.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: On an upcoming NFL game.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: And let me tell you how you are, if you're
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: trading parlays on Polymarket, you literally might as well just
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: load up the FanDuel app.
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: Put D5 up here on the screen.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: This is what's so funny to me, is that everybody
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: thinks it's some brand new project.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: So this is from Nick Dever.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: He is over at Barron's Online, and he has this
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: phenomenal scoop Where they find out where, you know, I've
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: explained this before on prediction markets, how somebody else is
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: taking the other side of your action, right?
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: So the person who's taking the other side of that action.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Is when you're on calci and you are doing a
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: quote combo bet, aka parlay bet, a contingent bet for
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: three different, you know, quote legs in your parlay. The
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: person who it turns out is market-making, many of those,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: is literally just FanDuel. So the people who have mastered
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: parlay technology, the sportsbooks by the single-game parlay, when you
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: log into FanDuel, that's what's loaded right up there at
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: the top, they are literally just doing the exact same
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: thing by using the CalShe platform. So whether you use
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: their app or use CalShe, you're just getting.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: The same bet.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: They're offering you the same thing. And as I've told you,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: that's 60% of their revenue. And you lose with such regularity,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: they can project in the future how much they are
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: going to make off of your dumb ass. And all
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: of this together, you can see we are siphoning. This
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: year will be already gambling eclipsed. All forms of entertainment combined. Hollywood, museums, books.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Now with all 50 states, with Novig and Sidney Sweeney
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: and DraftKings prediction market, FanDuel's prediction market, Kalshi, PolyMarket. Already
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: this week, put the screenshot, guys, D8. I literally took
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: this this morning on the day after NFL Sunday.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Take a look at this. The top downloaded apps.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: In the United States, Polymarket at number three, and Kalshi
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: at number five. So you can see how this marketing
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: campaign is working, how they are siphoning literally billions of
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: dollars from a lot of these working class guys, convincing
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: them that they have some sort of edge, live trading,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: you know exactly what's going on. And yeah, I mean,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: it's just, look, it's tragic because we all know the consequences.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: And the final thing I'll say is about this insider
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: trading threat, which still remains one of the biggest problems,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: is there's no real rules. Put, what is it, D6, please,
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: on the screen, just to highlight how absurd this whole
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: situation is and why you shouldn't even have markets on
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: this in the first place, is there were a cluster
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: of polymarket accounts that won big on companies audited by KPMG.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Findings came after the journal reported a KPMG employee is
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: under investigation for alleged insider trading. where he was betting
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: on the earnings of different companies, and somebody put it
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: together that all of the earnings that he was betting
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: on all were audited by.
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: KPMG, so he obviously had inside access.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Ironically, it appears that he tried to do this because
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: with the SEC, there's insider trading laws.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: So if you were to short the stock, that's much
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: easier to identify.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: So he explicitly used polymarket and these prediction markets to
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: circumvent the robust insider trading law that we have whenever
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: it comes to SEC and the stock exchange. and instead
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: wanted to circumvent it. So you may ask in the
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: first place, why do you even need this market at all?
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: And you would be correct.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: For insider trading.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Now, in fairness, apparently the Wall Street Journal has reported
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: that federal authorities were preparing to bring charges against a
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: KPNJ employee over alleged insider trading. Not clear whether it's
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: the same person, very likely the same person. So his
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: scheme here to skirt the law apparently didn't work. But
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: how many instances around there that never get caught? I mean,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: and that's the other part of this.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: And he's a U.S.-based idiot. All you need is some
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: guy in, you know, Kyrgyzstan. I mean, this guy could
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: be printing money.
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: Totally.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: Just paying people cash under the table.
• 26:52
  Speaker 8: Totally.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: If he just, yeah, used a straw purchaser instead to
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: make the bets, then no one would have been the wiser.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: There's no doubt that that sort of thing is happening.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: So that's the other piece is, like, whatever you're betting on,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: there may be somebody betting against you who actually has
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: inside knowledge and the whole thing is basically rigged.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: So stupid. All right, let's get to the next one.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, President Trump weighed in on an issue that is
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: increasingly on the minds of voters as they begin to
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: head to the polls, flock cameras. Let's take a listen
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: to what he had to say.
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: Speaking of AI, flock cameras, you haven't talked a lot
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: about these flock cameras. A lot of law enforcement say
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: they really help them. Would you be willing to back that? No,
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: I sort of like them because of that, because of
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: law enforcement.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: But some people don't.
• 27:37
  Speaker 8: They think it's an infringement.
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: They help catch a lot of criminals.
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: But I like them.
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: He likes him. OK.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: This comes on the heels, of course, of him saying
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: that if you don't like data centers, you want to
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: be backwards and poor, of saying all sorts of things
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: about he doesn't care about the financial needs and concerns
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: of the American people. Lots of stuff that Republicans are
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: absolutely loving from him. Kevin Hassett was recently on television
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: asking about some of the dire economic polling with regard
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: to Trump and his performance yesterday. Had quite an interesting
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: spin on it. Let's take a listen to that.
• 28:11
  Speaker 7: The bottom line is that Biden's economy right before that
• 28:15
  Speaker 7: election was truly horrible. We were heading up towards almost
• 28:19
  Speaker 7: close to above 10 to 12 percent inflation. Real wages
• 28:23
  Speaker 7: are dropping by about three thousand. And so then you
• 28:26
  Speaker 7: ask yourself, OK, if that's a reasonable estimate of what
• 28:29
  Speaker 7: people think about the economy, how come now that we
• 28:31
  Speaker 7: have this booming economy, they say that it's worse? And
• 28:33
  Speaker 7: the answer is that they're surveying Democrats who hate President Trump.
• 28:36
  Speaker 8: That's all.
• 28:37
  Speaker 7: And so therefore, I disregard that number.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: Polls are fake.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: They're just surveying Democrats. They don't know what they're talking about.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: It's all just fake news. The economy is actually doing amazing.
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: And the real problem, by the way, was Joe Biden.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Very possible. You know, polls have definitely been off.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: I believe what I saw was one of the bets
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: that the tech right people are making and a lot
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: of the Republicans are hanging their hat on is because
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: of the way the House is structured. If the polls
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: are off enough where it's just D plus four, then
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: they could still hold the House of Representatives. That's what
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: they're trying to sell to the people. Now, that's certainly possible.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, we've seen many polling errors here in the
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: history of our shows. It wouldn't exactly be, you know, novel.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Let's put E2 up here, though, on the screen. Just
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: check in where things are. This is where I generally
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: find where the D-plus stuff is always difficult to analyze
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: whether any of that's true, especially because it's so off
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: back in 2022. But approve, disapprove generally seems to be
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: a pretty long-held metric, which equalizes over time and yields.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: Usually absent like a.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Roe versus Wade situation like back in 2022 could end
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: up mattering and being the metric that you could point to.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: And that's where when you see Trump at 39% approve
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: and 61% disapprove, if you've got nearly a two-thirds majority
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: of the country saying I disapprove, then why would they
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: vote for the Republicans in the first place? Issue by issue,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: they have immigration minus 10, Iran minus 28, economy minus 32,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: inflation minus 46. These are not just numbers where even
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: if the polling error is what, plus.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: Or minus six, it's like, what are you, still minus 40?
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: On inflation? It's still not exactly the place to be.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Remember what I said there about the generic ballot, where
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: I said that they could survive in D plus four. Well,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: if you want to do the math, that's D plus
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: eight in terms of the generic.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: Ballot right there.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: So Even again, if we're plus or minus two, three,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: something like that, you're still in a situation where I'm
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: starting to lose.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Well, and pause this one for a second here, because
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I think this slide that's up is also really important.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: They ask people, OK, if Democrats win, are you going
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: to be better off financially? Numbers here, not exactly impressive.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Thirty six percent say I'll be better off. Thirty six
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: percent say worse off. The others say no change. But
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: the numbers are even worse for Republicans, where you've got
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: near a majority, 46 percent, saying they're going to be
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: worse off if Republicans win. Let's go to the next slide.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: We've got some more numbers from this CBS News YouGov poll.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Vote for Congress if you said that higher prices have
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: created difficulty or hardship for you. So of likely voters
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: who said that higher prices have been a bad thing
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: for them, that they are struggling because of higher prices, 62%
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: say they're voting Democrat and only 38% say they're voting Republican.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: That might be the most devastating number in this poll
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: because so many people feel that they have been financially
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: set back by high prices. Let's put the next piece
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: up on the screen. This is their house tracker right now.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: They're projecting 228 votes. Seats for Democrats, 207 for Republicans.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: And then last one we can put here up on
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: the screen. Among MAGA Republicans, how do you feel about
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Trump not being on the ballot? Does it make you
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: more interested in the election? Only 16%. less interested in
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the election, only 12 percent. Seventy two percent said it
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter to them. You know, the some of the
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: other numbers in this poll also indicated that Democrats are highly,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: highly motivated to vote against Trump. Republicans are less motivated
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: in general, but also less motivated vis-a-vis Trump, even though
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Trump has come out and said, pretend that I'm on
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the ballot. So this polling in line with a lot
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: of other polling that shows a lot of Antipathy among
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the Republican base and a lot of problems among the
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: broader electorate and especially deep, deep, deep discontent with Trump's
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: handling of the economy. So Trump's big ploy to try to,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: you know, get people to come out and vote for him,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: get excited and give them a reason to come out
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: and vote for Republicans was this promised $ 5, 000 check. which
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I'm sure we're all going to get right after our
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Doge checks and right after our tariff refund checks. Speaker
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Mike Johnson was asked about this $ 5, 000 ploy and had
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: an interesting way of describing it. And overall, he's asked
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: about it multiple times, seemed very less than enthusiastic, let's say,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: about the idea.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: Let's listen to that.
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: Where would the money come from? We're already $ 40 trillion
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: in debt, and this would put about $ 1. 3 trillion additional
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: onto that debt for your kids and my kids to
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: have to pay off.
• 33:11
  Speaker 8: It's a new creative idea. The president debuted it at
• 33:14
  Speaker 8: the convention. We have had zero time, of course, to
• 33:16
  Speaker 8: process that, deliberate, discuss it. As you know, I got
• 33:19
  Speaker 8: to build consensus every day on everything. But we applaud
• 33:22
  Speaker 8: the president for thinking outside the box. He's the president,
• 33:25
  Speaker 8: probably the strongest in that regard of any we've ever had.
• 33:29
  Speaker 8: And of course, we're worried about our fiscal stability and
• 33:32
  Speaker 8: the nation's debt. We have plans to reduce the debt.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: So he says there it's a new creative idea.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: But Sager notably refuses to actually back it.
• 33:41
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: Which seems to be the most important thing. It's like,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: so are you actually going to pass it?
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: And this gets to Trump, too, where Trump yesterday was
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: asked about it aboard Air Force One. And they said, well,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: how serious about this? It's like 100 percent. Meanwhile, John
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: Thune and Mike Johnson are like, yeah.
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: It's an interesting idea. You know, we'll see whether any
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: of that's going to happen.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: And so Trump's trying to manufacture a reason that you
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: should vote for Republicans and In the first place, except
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: the other Republicans won't even get on board with it.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: Somebody actually should.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Just go Ken Paxton and all these other people like,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: what do you guys think about all? I would love
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: every candidate on the record should say what they think.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: Oh, 100 percent.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, the thing is, like, it's obviously fake. It's
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: obviously not going to happen no matter what. And Republicans
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: are very likely to win, lose the House, if not
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: both chambers as well. There was checking in on some
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: of the critical Senate races. There was a debate in
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the Alaska Senate race where Mary Peltola, the Democrat, seems
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: to have an edge, at least in terms of the polling,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: and certainly seemed to have an edge in the primary vote.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: She got more than her opponent, Dan Sullivan. Interesting moment
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: here where they're asked yes or no on a fishery question,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: and Sullivan has to cheat to get the answer.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: Let's take a look. Do the North Pacific Fishery Management
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: Council and NOAA Fisheries adequately consider impacts on subsistence users,
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: salmon migration, habitat, and indigenous ways of life?
• 35:04
  Speaker 6: Send results.
• 35:05
  Speaker 7: Yes or no.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: We have two no's.
• 35:08
  Speaker 7: Thank you.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: So if you're just listening, she holds up her no
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: sign and then Sullivan looks over and then picks up
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: his no sign as well. So I'm not sure that
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: that is going to land well, but mostly it's just
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: a funny moment.
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: From the debate.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: And last one here, this is noteworthy because this is
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: an infamously Republican-leaning pollster, Rasmussen, polling in the Iowa Senate race.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: This is a state that no one would have thought
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: would be in play for Democrats, but it is very
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: much in play for Democrats. Let's put E5 up on
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: the screen here. If this poll is to be believed,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Josh Turk has a five-point lead— that' s the Democrat— over Ashley Hinson,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: the Republican, and a large lead among independent or unaffiliated voters.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: He's at 49 percent, and she is at 28 percent. Again,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: this is from Rasmussen, so worth noting. And I do
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: definitely think that the Iowa Senate seat is in play.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: Will he be able to pull it off?
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: You know, it's— Democrats have a long way to work
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: back with rural voters, but Iowa is also one of
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the states that has been hardest hit by both the
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: tariffs and the Iran war, and they already had economic
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: difficulties to begin with. So it would not be shocking
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: if there was a political earthquake in the state, given
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: how dire the economics there have been.
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: I totally agree.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: And even if I didn't, I couldn't say any more
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: because I keep breaking into coughing fit.
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: So it means it's time to wrap the show.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the tickle is telling me that there
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: is a bunch left.
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: In the tank.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: All right, here, I'll close the show today.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Guys, thank you so much for watching. We will be
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: back tomorrow with much more on all of the various
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: things that are going on in the world.
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: So we will see you then.