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Three Cubs trends we’re watching early in the season · North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast

0:06
Speaker 1: Welcome into Northside Territory File Territory Networks Cubs Podcast. I'm
0:09
Speaker 1: Sahadev Sharma with my partner Patrick Mooney. We are your
0:13
Speaker 1: Cubs beat writers over at the Athletic Patrick, the Cubs
0:18
Speaker 1: took a nice series from the Phillies. The offense showed up.
0:24
Speaker 1: I guess all three games, you could say the offense
0:26
Speaker 1: showed up. Since since they scored a bunch of runs
0:28
Speaker 1: in that first game, you know, you can nitpick and
0:32
Speaker 1: say that they did that against a weaker bullpen art.
0:34
Speaker 1: Majority of that was against a weaker bullpen arm. But
0:37
Speaker 1: the offense, I think we said this last episode, you know,
0:40
Speaker 1: with all these injuries piling up in the rotation, different
0:44
Speaker 1: things need to happen. One of them is the offense
0:47
Speaker 1: stepping up. I think one other thing that we kind
0:50
Speaker 1: of touched on that needs to happen. I think we
0:54
Speaker 1: both kind of felt like his first couple starts were
0:58
Speaker 1: really good but showed him. Monaga was dominant against the Phillies,
1:02
Speaker 1: and I said, last episode, I don't know if he
1:05
Speaker 1: can do twenty twenty four again. What is this three starts,
1:13
Speaker 1: four starts? Whatever it is, he looks it's four starts,
1:18
Speaker 1: he looks like he's maybe better than the twenty twenty four.
1:22
Speaker 1: Like I don't want to go too far, but four
1:25
Speaker 1: starts in he is awesome. The swing and miss rate
1:30
Speaker 1: is elite, not just good, it is elite. And he's
1:35
Speaker 1: not walking too many guys. The home runs are are
1:38
Speaker 1: gonna be there. But as long as he's not walking
1:41
Speaker 1: guys and putting guys on base and missing bats and
1:43
Speaker 1: the velocities back, this is another level of shoda that
1:47
Speaker 1: I think, this is what you need when someone like
1:50
Speaker 1: Kate Horton goes down.
1:53
Speaker 2: And maybe a cup should have picked up that three
1:55
Speaker 2: year options too soon, start second guessing that one won't
2:00
Speaker 2: go there yet. But I think I think that whole
2:05
Speaker 2: back and forth sort of revealed some of the how
2:09
Speaker 2: and why of what happened last year and the how
2:11
Speaker 2: and why have you know this season potentially being a
2:16
Speaker 2: nice bounce back. And I think, you know, our general
2:19
Speaker 2: understanding is that after that great first year, maybe as
2:23
Speaker 2: a group they sort of tried to do even more
2:27
Speaker 2: and like strength and strengths and work our weaknesses, and
2:32
Speaker 2: maybe it was just a little too much. And I think,
2:35
Speaker 2: you know, he's in I think he's a little lighter
2:38
Speaker 2: this year, and it makes you wonder if last year
2:44
Speaker 2: maybe put on some weight and I kind of threw
2:46
Speaker 2: things off a little bit. Obviously had that lower half
2:52
Speaker 2: injury that threw things off, and then just confidence. I
2:57
Speaker 2: think he's in a kind of in that zone.
3:00
Speaker 3: Again.
3:01
Speaker 2: I think we saw what a focused, committed pitcher he is,
3:07
Speaker 2: and so while I'm surprised like just how good it
3:10
Speaker 2: is out of the gate, I think we both thought
3:12
Speaker 2: he was going to be like a bounce back guy
3:14
Speaker 2: like it was not super concerned. I thought the qualifying
3:19
Speaker 2: offer was great deal for both sides, the Cubs getting
3:25
Speaker 2: potential cy young contender for just north of twenty two
3:29
Speaker 2: million dollars only a one year commitment, and that you
3:32
Speaker 2: know showed I think was motivated to show the baseball
3:35
Speaker 2: industry that you know, didn't shun him quite last offseason,
3:40
Speaker 2: but clearly didn't blow him away to where he found
3:44
Speaker 2: a multi year deal to his liking. And I think
3:49
Speaker 2: they respectfully left things in a good place to where
3:52
Speaker 2: he would get right back to work. I think it
3:54
Speaker 2: was like almost immediately after the season ended, he was
3:56
Speaker 2: going down to the Kressey Performance Center in Florida, and
4:00
Speaker 2: you know, still a long way to go, but very
4:04
Speaker 2: encouraging signs for the guy who is probably maybe the
4:10
Speaker 2: most one of the most durable options that they have
4:13
Speaker 2: for this rotation. Like knock on wood, fingers crossed.
4:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, and that that twenty twenty five season
4:21
Speaker 1: that he had the injury whatever caused all those issues
4:26
Speaker 1: in the second half, probably the injury and the disjointed
4:31
Speaker 1: rehab and in his return not I think he's admitted
4:35
Speaker 1: or he has admitted that he couldn't do everything that
4:38
Speaker 1: he wanted to do physically as they tried to work
4:42
Speaker 1: their way back and they were trying to get his
4:45
Speaker 1: delivery in a spot it was like, I physically can't
4:47
Speaker 1: do that, essentially, and he just wasn't where he wanted
4:52
Speaker 1: to be. That that like it almost worked out well.
4:57
Speaker 1: I shouldn't say it may work out well for Shoda
5:01
Speaker 1: in the sense that if he has a brilliant season,
5:04
Speaker 1: he's gonna hit free agency instead of being locked into
5:08
Speaker 1: what was a team friendly deal. Like it worked out.
5:12
Speaker 1: It didn't work out well for the Cubs, obviously, but
5:14
Speaker 1: right now it's looking great for Shoda. Just some quick numbers,
5:18
Speaker 1: I mean, so his rookie year twenty twenty four is
5:21
Speaker 1: fastball averaged ninety one seven. It went down to ninety
5:24
Speaker 1: point eight last year and then it's up to ninety
5:28
Speaker 1: two to one early this season. Everything's up. All his
5:32
Speaker 1: pitches are up velocity wise, And they had a they
5:37
Speaker 1: had some numbers on the broadcast last night. I don't
5:40
Speaker 1: have them off the I could look them up, but
5:43
Speaker 1: it'll take it would take a minute, so I'm not
5:45
Speaker 1: going to do it in the middle of this podcast.
5:48
Speaker 1: But essentially, when he's like ninety and below versus when
5:54
Speaker 1: he's ninety one and above, like the ops against is
5:57
Speaker 1: like five hundred versus it's just like just miles apart,
6:03
Speaker 1: Like they batters rock him when he's ninety and below
6:07
Speaker 1: when he's averaging that. So it's just he's just a
6:11
Speaker 1: completely different picture. Right now. He looks confident on the mound.
6:16
Speaker 1: This is the type of guy that can be a
6:19
Speaker 1: game one starter for a team in the playoffs. He
6:25
Speaker 1: just like this is I don't know, you know, it'd
6:29
Speaker 1: be you can dream on like, Oh, wouldn't it be
6:32
Speaker 1: wonderful to have this guy paired up with I mean,
6:36
Speaker 1: imagine a rotation with him, healthy kid, healthy, Matthew Boyd,
6:41
Speaker 1: Edward Cabrera and Jamison Twn with Justin Steele coming back,
6:46
Speaker 1: that was the dream world. That was what they were
6:48
Speaker 1: hoping for. This is what you and I kind of
6:51
Speaker 1: I mean, you were on this from the beginning of
6:53
Speaker 1: the all season. Once they brought him back, you were
6:55
Speaker 1: kind of like very confident that Immanaga would bounce back.
7:01
Speaker 1: And I mean, I guess he's proving you right and
7:04
Speaker 1: everyone that believed in him right right now. But yes,
7:09
Speaker 1: it's not it's not great that Caide's hurt, But this
7:13
Speaker 1: is what you need when when someone goes down, when
7:15
Speaker 1: someone that important goes down, everyone else needs to step
7:18
Speaker 1: up and showed it is doing his part, if not more.
7:22
Speaker 2: This made me think of some of the coverage from
7:25
Speaker 2: our colleague, Chandler Rome, both with the Foul Territory Network
7:27
Speaker 2: and over at the Athletic him writing about Tatsuya my
7:32
Speaker 2: a picture of the Cubs were engaged on this past offseason.
7:36
Speaker 2: It was right around New Year's Eve. New Year's Day
7:39
Speaker 2: was sort of the window where he would have to
7:44
Speaker 2: reach an agreement. Past physical The Cubs were not willing
7:47
Speaker 2: to give him an opt out after year one, in
7:54
Speaker 2: part because they believed his adjustment period would be longer
8:00
Speaker 2: than what happened for in Minaga, which it would almost
8:04
Speaker 2: have to be because showed, like basically from the first
8:06
Speaker 2: press conference just like owned the moment and you know,
8:10
Speaker 2: had this Fernando Valezuela type run at the start of
8:14
Speaker 2: the rookie year. But I do think there is something
8:18
Speaker 2: to the comfort level that Chota and the Cubs have
8:21
Speaker 2: created in Chicago. I would definitely read Chandler stories. That
8:26
Speaker 2: doesn't mean May is not going to figure it out,
8:28
Speaker 2: but they're you know, Chandler was on I believe, all
8:31
Speaker 2: territory saying now he's already kind of gone through multiple interpreters,
8:37
Speaker 2: which may color some of these quotes that were that
8:40
Speaker 2: were reading that they gave him a lot of freedom
8:43
Speaker 2: in terms of building his own schedule. I believe is
8:46
Speaker 2: one of the first Japanese players they brought over directly
8:50
Speaker 2: from NPB, if not the first, And just some of
8:54
Speaker 2: this stuff like Imai through an interpreter, you know, saying
8:59
Speaker 2: how you know in Japan, when they get back to
9:01
Speaker 2: the hotel, they eat their dinner. Hear the players eat
9:03
Speaker 2: at the stadium, the travel is different. Just a lot
9:08
Speaker 2: of stuff going on there, And you know, I think
9:14
Speaker 2: the Cubs deserve some credit for kind of the infrastructure
9:19
Speaker 2: they've built here, and that's not just on the pitching side.
9:22
Speaker 2: It is you know, kind of making their players comfortable
9:27
Speaker 2: in a lot of different ways and kind of embracing
9:30
Speaker 2: their their families and you know, putting them in a
9:34
Speaker 2: position to succeed.
9:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what I remember hearing a lot about
9:40
Speaker 1: Saya Suzuki's transition, and it wasn't as smooth as Show
9:45
Speaker 1: Doaes was. I think, you know, every player is different, Like,
9:48
Speaker 1: you can't just assume they're from Japan the transition is
9:51
Speaker 1: going to be the same. Like that's insane to think exactly,
9:54
Speaker 1: say they're they're eat their individuals, how they like, what
9:57
Speaker 1: they want to eat, when they want to eat, how
10:00
Speaker 1: how they how they prepare all those things? Do they
10:04
Speaker 1: want to do it? More? Like, I think the cultural
10:07
Speaker 1: shift is dramatic and and when you can't make assumptions
10:13
Speaker 1: about how they will, you know, adjust to it. And
10:16
Speaker 1: I think Showda adjusted much quicker. I think Seyah preferred
10:21
Speaker 1: eating Japanese food, you know, more traditional Japanese food, not
10:27
Speaker 1: always easy to find and not always easy to prepare
10:30
Speaker 1: exactly how they may like it. Sounds like that's more
10:35
Speaker 1: up in my style. I saw something about I'm gonna
10:38
Speaker 1: forget his name Okamoto with Toronto, how he likes like
10:43
Speaker 1: cas ideas and sandwiches. So so it's you know, everyone's different,
10:50
Speaker 1: and it's like, if you're gonna like casadias and sandwiches,
10:53
Speaker 1: you're gonna the transition is gonna be pretty easy. You know,
10:56
Speaker 1: like that that's not hard to find. Uh, but it's
11:01
Speaker 1: it's not easy. And you're right the Cubs, I think
11:04
Speaker 1: they really worked hard. They made they learned some things
11:08
Speaker 1: through sayah, what what they needed to do to make
11:11
Speaker 1: the transition easier. And and I think that it says
11:16
Speaker 1: something about the organization that they've put in a lot
11:18
Speaker 1: of work to make sure that players are comfortable. Uh,
11:22
Speaker 1: and you know, it's not always easy. We'll see what
11:25
Speaker 1: happens with am I, but obviously showed it like his
11:29
Speaker 1: hasn't had those types of issues. Uh, He's it like
11:34
Speaker 1: like I said, everyone's different, and he seemed to just like, uh,
11:39
Speaker 1: go out of his way almost to make others comfortable
11:42
Speaker 1: around him instead of you know, it's really remarkable what
11:47
Speaker 1: type of person he is. I've all I've been impressed
11:50
Speaker 1: with him since he signed. But I think you know
11:52
Speaker 1: through're we're two plus years in and he continues to impress,
11:58
Speaker 1: just like a pretty impressive person, and his ability to
12:02
Speaker 1: adjust has been remarkable.
12:05
Speaker 2: One more note on in my like, I was told
12:08
Speaker 2: that the opt out after year one was sort of
12:10
Speaker 2: a standard feature of the kind of offers he was
12:14
Speaker 2: being presented this past off season. And you know, the
12:19
Speaker 2: Cubs liked him, didn't really love him. I think that
12:23
Speaker 2: was kind of the way it was phrased to you
12:25
Speaker 2: kind of early in the off season. And that hell,
12:27
Speaker 2: that of the Cubs hung around because they thought maybe
12:30
Speaker 2: it would be like Shoda in that maybe he wouldn't
12:33
Speaker 2: get that enormous contract that was projected at the beginning
12:38
Speaker 2: of the off season. That'd be a more so be
12:40
Speaker 2: a robust, enormous raise from what he would have made
12:44
Speaker 2: in Japan. But you know, the Cubs. The sticking point
12:47
Speaker 2: for the Cubs was, you know, my could struggle the
12:53
Speaker 2: whole year but have a good healthy September, and like
12:58
Speaker 2: by the time he figures it out, he's gone. And
13:02
Speaker 2: that's where the Cubs did not want to That's the
13:06
Speaker 2: position the Cubs wanted to avoid. And yeah, we'll see
13:10
Speaker 2: how it plays out. It's always fun to do kind
13:13
Speaker 2: of the what if sliding doors type of situations from
13:16
Speaker 2: the off season.
13:17
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, let's take a break and then when we
13:20
Speaker 1: come back, let's talk about some trends we're seeing on offense.
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14:32
Speaker 1: All right, Patrick, let's start.
14:37
Speaker 2: It wasn't just me zoning out while you're talking. I
14:39
Speaker 2: literally didn't hear.
14:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, that's that's because I'm mute to myself,
14:42
Speaker 1: so I could talk to the dogs. Well, well, the
14:45
Speaker 1: commercial was going on. Let's talk about some good, good
14:51
Speaker 1: trends on offense. Well, one good trend on offense. We'll
14:56
Speaker 1: start with the good and wrap up with some concerning
14:59
Speaker 1: things that we're seeing. First of all, look Nico Horner.
15:03
Speaker 1: We we know he's incredibly consistent. He has been one
15:09
Speaker 1: of those players that's like the model of like, this
15:13
Speaker 1: is how you want your players to prepare, this is
15:17
Speaker 1: what you're looking for in the clubhouse, and just show
15:20
Speaker 1: up and do your work and go out there and
15:22
Speaker 1: perform at a high level. He has not been like
15:26
Speaker 1: an elite offensive producer, but he has always been a
15:31
Speaker 1: solid one. And now it's it's almost like he's taken
15:36
Speaker 1: he signed that extension and almost immediately has taken his
15:40
Speaker 1: game to another level. I don't I don't know how
15:45
Speaker 1: much of this is sustainable. I'll say that out of
15:47
Speaker 1: the gate. I just don't know. But I like he's
15:52
Speaker 1: you know, he's driving in runs, which is something that
15:55
Speaker 1: Nico Horner tends to do really well with when runners
16:00
Speaker 1: on base, he puts the ball in play and seems
16:01
Speaker 1: to find a hole. Always had a high numbers, high
16:05
Speaker 1: batting average with runners in scoring position. I think he's
16:08
Speaker 1: had like one off here, but now the power is
16:10
Speaker 1: starting to develop slightly. He's not like some you know,
16:15
Speaker 1: huge home run hitter, but he's got two homers, seven doubles,
16:21
Speaker 1: and the walk rate is double digits at ten point
16:25
Speaker 1: eight percent. I mean, these are things that he wasn't
16:26
Speaker 1: doing before that he's doing now. And you know, that
16:31
Speaker 1: is the type of trend that you know, you talk
16:33
Speaker 1: about Showdabnaga looking like a cy young candidate. That's like,
16:39
Speaker 1: you know, obviously shohe O Tani is king in the
16:42
Speaker 1: n L. But Nico Horner, with his elite defense and
16:47
Speaker 1: base running skills, that's the type of player that's like,
16:50
Speaker 1: does he get MVP votes if this keeps up? We
16:53
Speaker 1: can't talk about it yet, Well, we'll talk about it
16:55
Speaker 1: in four months. Uh, but that's I'm just saying, that's
16:58
Speaker 1: the type of you know, two plus weeks whatever we are,
17:01
Speaker 1: three weeks into the season, that's what he's looking like.
17:05
Speaker 2: You can understand it too, just following the arc of
17:09
Speaker 2: his career, like he's going to be twenty nine next month,
17:13
Speaker 2: Like this should be kind of his prime window for
17:19
Speaker 2: his career. And I think there was a lot of
17:23
Speaker 2: trial and error to get to this place of you know,
17:27
Speaker 2: I think one of the most impressive things he's done
17:29
Speaker 2: is he's become someone who just posts up every day.
17:32
Speaker 2: You know. He sort of had that injury prone label
17:36
Speaker 2: not quite attached to him yet, but it was kind
17:38
Speaker 2: of out there. I think there were times where he
17:42
Speaker 2: kind of like probably bulked up too much, you know,
17:46
Speaker 2: with you know, following maybe with the best of intentions
17:51
Speaker 2: or you following certain instructions, and then I think that
17:54
Speaker 2: might have lost you might have lost a little something
17:56
Speaker 2: in that trade off obviously, like figuring out his identity
18:00
Speaker 2: as a hitter and what sort of works. And I
18:04
Speaker 2: don't know, watching him now, he just kind of reminds
18:07
Speaker 2: me of, you know, an offensive version of Kyle Hendrix,
18:10
Speaker 2: like kind of doing it his own way and someone
18:14
Speaker 2: that the organization knows will exhaust every possibility to be
18:21
Speaker 2: the absolute best player he can be. That doesn't mean
18:25
Speaker 2: it'll last forever or that you know, he's figured everything out.
18:30
Speaker 2: But whenever this ends for Nico Horner, I don't think
18:34
Speaker 2: we're gonna be looking back like, oh man, like you
18:36
Speaker 2: know what what could have been? Like he is, this
18:40
Speaker 2: is kind of his moment, and i'd imagine that playing
18:44
Speaker 2: with that contract extension all in the rear view mirror,
18:51
Speaker 2: everything is set like that's got to be freeing on
18:54
Speaker 2: some level too.
18:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, when it comes to the power, I do think
19:01
Speaker 1: there were going to see a jump in it, not
19:04
Speaker 1: maybe not to. I want to say, is that like
19:06
Speaker 1: a one eighty one ninety io, which is which is
19:10
Speaker 1: not elite but probably above average. I want to say,
19:14
Speaker 1: like one sixties average? So are we gonna see I
19:19
Speaker 1: think just average would be good for him because he's
19:22
Speaker 1: usually around one hundred. Uh. He He kind of talks
19:26
Speaker 1: about how in the past, when searching for power, it's
19:29
Speaker 1: kind of like what you were saying about bulking up.
19:31
Speaker 1: He's learning from his mistakes, like he he learned what
19:35
Speaker 1: type of off season he needed to have. Yes, what
19:38
Speaker 1: type of workouts he needed to do. I can't get
19:42
Speaker 1: too big that that type of off season didn't work
19:45
Speaker 1: for me. I didn't like how my body felt. I
19:47
Speaker 1: think he got injured. He just didn't. It didn't work
19:50
Speaker 1: for him. But he's learned over the course of his
19:52
Speaker 1: career when it comes to power. He used to think
19:54
Speaker 1: it was taking big swings on certain pitches looking for
19:58
Speaker 1: his chances it did. That didn't work for him, that
20:01
Speaker 1: got him out of his swing. That that led to
20:04
Speaker 1: bad habits, But that doesn't mean so now he has
20:07
Speaker 1: a consistent habit of I want to hit hard line drives,
20:12
Speaker 1: preferably to the pull side. That's what I want to
20:15
Speaker 1: do every single time up certain pitches. That's going to
20:17
Speaker 1: lead to pulling the ball in the air into the seats.
20:21
Speaker 1: We saw that last Wednesday night, and and I think
20:25
Speaker 1: that's it doesn't get him out of his swing. You'll
20:28
Speaker 1: also see that, I don't know if it was last
20:31
Speaker 1: night or Tuesday night, he had that one that he
20:34
Speaker 1: just hit down the first base line. And that's that's
20:39
Speaker 1: kind of like a Nico special almost. You know, he's
20:41
Speaker 1: going to hit a lot of balls towards the you know,
20:45
Speaker 1: the the four to three hole there, and he's going
20:48
Speaker 1: to hit balls into right field, sometimes hard, sometimes they'll
20:52
Speaker 1: just be looping liners. He can do that. He that's
20:57
Speaker 1: how he kind of you can say that that's the
20:59
Speaker 1: babbit working in his favor. But he puts the ball
21:01
Speaker 1: in play a ton But that's you know. I think
21:05
Speaker 1: this combination that we're seeing of he's not taking chances.
21:09
Speaker 1: It's just a consistent swing that he wants to bring
21:14
Speaker 1: every at bat, and it works. It's starting to work
21:17
Speaker 1: in his favor of getting a little bit more power there.
21:20
Speaker 1: One other thing, when it comes to like elevated doubles,
21:26
Speaker 1: I do think there's a little bit of like if
21:29
Speaker 1: you want to call it good luck now or bad
21:31
Speaker 1: luck in the past, Like sometimes he hits these rocket
21:34
Speaker 1: line drives and they're just one hop right to the outfielder.
21:39
Speaker 1: If he starts finding like a pull or like opo
21:43
Speaker 1: or gap like that, you just a little bit of
21:47
Speaker 1: luck there helps get you a couple more doubles. We'll
21:51
Speaker 1: see if that lasts all season long. I think that's
21:54
Speaker 1: my question. Like I don't know if the ISO is
21:57
Speaker 1: going to be this high. If it's one sixty for
21:59
Speaker 1: the season, and that is awesome for Nico. I like, like,
22:03
Speaker 1: he just be average in power and suddenly you've taken
22:07
Speaker 1: your game to another level and it is and it
22:10
Speaker 1: is you know, at least down ballot MVP type stuff.
22:14
Speaker 1: When he's doing stuff like that, Yeah, go ahead, Patrick.
22:18
Speaker 2: No I alluded to the show to contract back and
22:22
Speaker 2: forth in the first segment. It's not unreasonable think that,
22:27
Speaker 2: you know Nico and prioritizing long term security and his
22:34
Speaker 2: comfort level in Chicago, that maybe he left something on
22:37
Speaker 2: the table and the Cubs got you know, a relatively
22:41
Speaker 2: good deal here because we thought, you know, nine figure
22:45
Speaker 2: deal would make sense. I think the number was at
22:48
Speaker 2: one forty one was kind of like that seemed pretty
22:52
Speaker 2: pretty high. But when you look at who else is
22:54
Speaker 2: going to be a free agent this offseason, and if
22:56
Speaker 2: Nico had any sort of like you're pretty good, good,
23:01
Speaker 2: highly productive season, you never know what happens on the
23:05
Speaker 2: open market. And I think a lot of teams, whether
23:09
Speaker 2: you're a heavily modeled, driven team Nico's gonna light that up,
23:13
Speaker 2: or if maybe you're a little more blended, or if
23:15
Speaker 2: you have some more old school scouting boys. Is like,
23:18
Speaker 2: this is a guy you love watching play just his
23:22
Speaker 2: his style, his intangibles, you know, all that stuff off
23:27
Speaker 2: the charts.
23:29
Speaker 1: Let's go to the not so good on offense. One
23:34
Speaker 1: player who's who started, I guess to show some signs
23:38
Speaker 1: of life is peek Row Armstrong. He had a double recently,
23:43
Speaker 1: a couple I think it was a two hit game
23:45
Speaker 1: last night, and you know, he started to put some
23:50
Speaker 1: solid at bats together. The overall numbers, though, here's my
23:55
Speaker 1: some weird stuff that has jumped out to me. His
23:58
Speaker 1: swinging strike rate is all time low, but his strikeout
24:03
Speaker 1: rate is currently at higher than twenty four or twenty five.
24:09
Speaker 1: He is chasing more than ever, which he was always
24:13
Speaker 1: chasing and you know, too much, and now he's chasing
24:16
Speaker 1: more than ever. But his contact rate is higher than ever.
24:20
Speaker 1: So he's chasing more, but he's putting the ball in
24:23
Speaker 1: play or he's making contact more. But he's also striking
24:27
Speaker 1: up very weird, very weird numbers. I think. Here's the
24:31
Speaker 1: big one. Ground ball rate is through the roof. The
24:35
Speaker 1: ground ball rate is forty three point five percent. Last
24:39
Speaker 1: year was thirty one point three percent. Like, these numbers
24:42
Speaker 1: may not have context to the average listener, so just
24:46
Speaker 1: know that that's a huge jump when you're jumping twelve
24:50
Speaker 1: percentage points in ground ball rate, that's a very big jump.
24:54
Speaker 1: And it goes back to I had a conversation with
24:56
Speaker 1: him in where we're we uh doing Cleveland? Yeah it
25:01
Speaker 1: was Cleveland. Yeah, yeah, it was Cleveland. I can't remember
25:06
Speaker 1: those all ones together, and he basically said, his timing's
25:12
Speaker 1: a mess, and these guys, you know, well, we'll talk
25:15
Speaker 1: about We're going to talk about Michael Bush too. And
25:17
Speaker 1: I think it all comes down to this, and when
25:19
Speaker 1: a player's struggling, Yeah, there's maybe some mechanical thing that's off,
25:23
Speaker 1: maybe something slightly off, but they all come back to
25:25
Speaker 1: one thing, and this is what hitting is. It's timing.
25:28
Speaker 1: And when you're hitting a bunch of ground balls, you know.
25:32
Speaker 1: I think I've seen it with Say a little bit
25:35
Speaker 1: when he gets off, when he's not right, he'll hit
25:37
Speaker 1: these rocket ground balls right to the shortstop and it's like, Okay,
25:42
Speaker 1: he's hitting the ball hard, but his timing's off, like
25:45
Speaker 1: he needs to elevate that ball. And I think that's
25:49
Speaker 1: the same thing going on with Pete. But we talked
25:53
Speaker 1: about it in the offseason, and this was my thing
25:56
Speaker 1: with Pete. I don't know what Pete is yet offensively
26:00
Speaker 1: and he's searching for consistency. But he may just be
26:06
Speaker 1: this type of player where we see highs and lows.
26:08
Speaker 1: You want to see a high soon, obviously, but right
26:12
Speaker 1: now he's in one of those lows. How long do
26:14
Speaker 1: they last? How quickly can he turn it around? These
26:17
Speaker 1: are the questions that we're going to be asking ourselves.
26:20
Speaker 1: I don't know for how long, for his entire career,
26:23
Speaker 1: I don't know, but what type of player he is,
26:26
Speaker 1: but he is this elite defender, super fast. We still
26:31
Speaker 1: don't know what he is on offense.
26:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would kind of lump in Michael
26:36
Speaker 2: Bush here as well, of just like two left handed
26:41
Speaker 2: hitters the Cubs were counting on to help replace the
26:45
Speaker 2: good version of Kyle Tucker from the start of last year,
26:48
Speaker 2: and I think they'll both be fine in different ways.
26:52
Speaker 2: I'm with you. A council alluded to this round opening
26:55
Speaker 2: day of just like the growth is going to happen
26:59
Speaker 2: for we don't know exactly when or which direction. He's like,
27:03
Speaker 2: I think all of it will be good, and he said,
27:05
Speaker 2: as a staff, it is, you know, our job to
27:09
Speaker 2: be there for him for whatever happens. Pete's routine, Pete's
27:16
Speaker 2: willingness to like learn, and his desire to get better.
27:21
Speaker 2: I think all those things bode well. But you know,
27:25
Speaker 2: maybe this is you know, could be one of those
27:29
Speaker 2: seasons where it is more like growing pains than another,
27:33
Speaker 2: like MVP Calvary year. And I think Michael Bush is
27:37
Speaker 2: so steady, his pedigree and profile from first round pick
27:42
Speaker 2: at UNC it's time in the Dodgers farm system, all
27:45
Speaker 2: those at batsy accumulated. I think he'll probably be fine,
27:48
Speaker 2: but like he might have been their best hitter last October,
27:52
Speaker 2: and like, maybe isn't again this year. Like we've seen,
27:56
Speaker 2: you know, all these ten year Reunion World Series stuff
28:01
Speaker 2: going on, and anyone who followed that group knew that
28:05
Speaker 2: you know, knows now that it was not linear. It
28:08
Speaker 2: was not a straight line. Like guys had these dips
28:13
Speaker 2: and peaks and unexpected adversity and you just never know
28:21
Speaker 2: with these early season trends of like sometimes it is
28:24
Speaker 2: your year. Like last year, Pete around right around this
28:27
Speaker 2: time he just went off, and that you know, changed
28:32
Speaker 2: the trajectory of his life. It really gave the cups
28:36
Speaker 2: of confidence to invest, you know, big money in him
28:41
Speaker 2: and make those compromises to get a long term deal.
28:44
Speaker 2: I think Bush's ceiling probably isn't that high. He's not
28:49
Speaker 2: a high flying center fielder, but he's a huge part
28:52
Speaker 2: of this team. He had earned every day at bats
28:57
Speaker 2: coming into this year, and I think it'll be interesting
29:00
Speaker 2: see like how that actually works, you know, the remaining
29:06
Speaker 2: almost ninety percent of the season.
29:09
Speaker 1: I maybe this is unfair, but I have much more
29:13
Speaker 1: faith in Michael Bush being like a really consistent producer.
29:18
Speaker 1: This is just a lull where he's a little off
29:22
Speaker 1: at the plate. And that's not to say that I
29:24
Speaker 1: don't have faith. I think, you know, Pete's gonna get hot.
29:27
Speaker 1: But my I've said this for a while. I just
29:29
Speaker 1: don't know, like if we're ever going to see a
29:32
Speaker 1: version of pekro Armstrong where he puts six months together
29:36
Speaker 1: where it's just like some small slumps here and there
29:38
Speaker 1: and he's like a one forty way to runs crated
29:41
Speaker 1: plus guy for a season, Like that's an MVP that
29:45
Speaker 1: Peker arms Strong with a one forty way to runs
29:47
Speaker 1: created plus, which is what Michael Bush put up last year,
29:49
Speaker 1: is an MVP. And that's where like Pete was about
29:52
Speaker 1: for you know, if I bet if I look at
29:55
Speaker 1: the end of July, that's where he was like one,
29:58
Speaker 1: if not above U. I just think he's going to
30:01
Speaker 1: have these massive swings, and what you want to do
30:06
Speaker 1: is shorten the massive downward swings and and like try
30:11
Speaker 1: and get that a little higher and like just so
30:14
Speaker 1: you know, the you're closer to average in those down moments.
30:18
Speaker 1: How he goes about that, you know, he's going to
30:20
Speaker 1: have to figure that out. With Bush, it's similar, he's
30:24
Speaker 1: putting the ball on the ground way too much. He's
30:25
Speaker 1: not pulling the ball, he's not hitting the ball in
30:27
Speaker 1: the air as much. He's not hitting the ball hard.
30:30
Speaker 1: He says, it's timing. Uh And and I think a
30:33
Speaker 1: little bit of pitch selection he has. He what he
30:36
Speaker 1: says is he you know, he's figured out what he
30:40
Speaker 1: needs to do to be good at this game. Like
30:44
Speaker 1: he knows what he needs to do, what his process is.
30:46
Speaker 1: He is sticking to that right now. And I think
30:49
Speaker 1: that's a smart thing. Don't stray from what has gotten
30:52
Speaker 1: you to where you need to be. Uh. There there's
30:56
Speaker 1: some you know, he's not striking out a ton, chases
31:00
Speaker 1: up a little bit, but it's not dramatic. He's walking
31:03
Speaker 1: more than he usually does. There's some good signs here.
31:06
Speaker 1: He needs to hit some hard line drives to the
31:09
Speaker 1: pull side and then you'll see him kind of go
31:11
Speaker 1: on a run. I think I believe that Michael Bush
31:14
Speaker 1: is fine. And that's not to say I don't believe
31:16
Speaker 1: Pekar Peaker arms are is going to get hot at
31:19
Speaker 1: some point. He's just hard to break down and like
31:23
Speaker 1: kind of say like, oh yeah, here it's coming, because
31:27
Speaker 1: it's kind of random with him. It was kind of
31:28
Speaker 1: like you saw in the WBC, like he looked bad
31:31
Speaker 1: and then he just hit those two home runs and
31:34
Speaker 1: then he was really good the rest of the WBC.
31:36
Speaker 1: So like he's just one of those harder players to
31:40
Speaker 1: analyze offensively. And I think that's just maybe that's how
31:44
Speaker 1: what we're gonna be talking about for how long was
31:46
Speaker 1: the deal? Eight years? Seven years, six years years, six years,
31:52
Speaker 1: six years, so that I think we're just gonna be
31:54
Speaker 1: talking about him like that for like the next six
31:56
Speaker 1: seven years. It's just how how his game is offense.
32:00
Speaker 1: And I think, you know, the online discourse is going
32:05
Speaker 1: to be like this guy stinks or whatever. Like I
32:07
Speaker 1: hope fans can can understand, like it's gonna be volatile
32:11
Speaker 1: with him, and there's gonna be a point where you're like,
32:14
Speaker 1: how do you get Peek or arm Strong out. One
32:16
Speaker 1: other thing that the broadcast did a really good job
32:19
Speaker 1: last night. I think it was last night, maybe two
32:20
Speaker 1: nights ago. He's he's seeing an insane amount of lefties.
32:26
Speaker 1: He's gonna have to figure something out there because that's
32:28
Speaker 1: really hard to deal with for him. He rarely struggles
32:32
Speaker 1: against lefties. So that's that that adds to this, So
32:37
Speaker 1: we'll see how he can kind of adjust going forward.
32:39
Speaker 1: You can't sit him against lefties because a a lot
32:43
Speaker 1: of times their relievers be like, if he's your best defender,
32:47
Speaker 1: he's an elite defender. You don't sit an elite defensive
32:51
Speaker 1: center fielder platoon hum or something like that. It just doesn't.
32:54
Speaker 1: It's hard to do. So it's part of the growing
32:58
Speaker 1: process with him.
33:00
Speaker 2: It's Hobby two point oh. It continues to amaze, Like
33:03
Speaker 2: how much you know after watching Hobby bias is create
33:07
Speaker 2: trajectory and how things unfolded in Chicago. It's eerially similar
33:11
Speaker 2: to Pete.
33:13
Speaker 1: All right, Patrick, let's wrap this baby up. We will
33:16
Speaker 1: be back with a mailbag episode for you guys. To
33:19
Speaker 1: wrap up the week. Thanks so much for listening to
33:21
Speaker 1: This is Northside Territory. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe,
33:24
Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel, and subscribe to The Athletic
33:26
Speaker 1: where Patrick and I on top of all things cubs.
33:29
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to everyone. Take care, no