Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Outlook For COVID-19, Taxes, Energy, And Real Estate

Transcript

Outlook For COVID-19, Taxes, Energy, And Real Estate · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Thinking about the only
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: crown variant here it I think the question I get
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: most nowadays is when will this peak? And let's talk
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to a professional and that issue. Dr syrah Madad title
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: is Senior Director system Wide Special Pathogen's program Man. That
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: sounds impressive NYC Health and Hospitals. Dr Madad, thank you
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: so much for joining us. To really appreciate you taking
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: the time here. You know, I guess we saw in
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: South Africa a relatively quick acceleration in the omicron virant,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: but then is as quickly a deceleration and decline in
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: that variant as well? Is that something we can expect
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: here in the United States? Do you believe? Well, I
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: think there's a couple of have yats to that. Yes,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I think many of us are predicting that the amcron
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: wave is going to be less um of an issue
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: in terms of how long it's going to be at
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: very high levels of community transmission, and so we may
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: see the peak you know, faster compared to the delta
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: wave and then having kind of a faster decline um.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: But at the same time, it's hard to extrapolate if
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: we are going to see the same uh kind of
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: really quick acceleration in a very quick, you know, deceleration
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: because South Africa, their population is a very different in
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: terms of how young they are, the amount of immunity
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: and their population and different types of factors. Here in
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the US, it's very different as you go by state
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: by state. So here, for example, in in the city
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: of New York where I am in, we are still
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: seeing alarming number of case growth. You may be seeing
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: um per, some positivity kind of decline a little bit,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: cases new infections decline a little bit. But it's still
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit too early to tell. But again, we're
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: hopeful that we are going to see the peak very soon,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and I think by next week we'll probably have a
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: much better idea of have we reached the peak or
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: are we over the big hup. I think people have
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of questions about some of the hospitalizations and
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: some of the data coming in. Dr or Anthony Fauci
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: last week said that UM, at least with children, hospitalizations
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: are overstated because people are coming in with appendicitis or
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: a broken leg, they're automatically being tested for COVID and
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: they're being labeled as COVID hospitalizations. We heard similar from
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: the CEO of Northwell Health yesterday. Are you seeing that
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: as well? Well? You know, for Agnay, the New York
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Kate Governor has come out and has mentioned that, you know, UM,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: they do want hospitals to break down who is coming
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: in with a primary diagnosis of COVID and versus those
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: that are coming with a secondary diagnosis media coming in
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: with other issues non related to COVID, and we're just
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: picking up COVID. So I think the big question here
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: certainly is obviously are we picking up more incidental um know,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: covid UM. But at the same time, we also want
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: to look at the acuity of these patients have been
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: coming with high acuity or low acuity. So I think
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: right now what we are generally seeing across New York
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: City is that the acuity of these patients that aren't
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: coming into the e d s are lower acuity that
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: have COVID, which I think abodes all with some of
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: the studies that have been coming out now that um
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: with acron in particularly seeing more of a mild illness.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: But I would say again a caveat here is a
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: mild illness or one person may not be a mild
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: illness for another person. So, you know, I think when
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: we look at those that are currently hospitalized across New
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: York City and the Department of House, that's a really
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: amazing job, and there's a grass that really is just
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: so remarkable and telling. And if you're looking at who
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: is currently hospitalized, you're seeing, by and large it's a
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: majority of those that are unvaccinated. You see, the line
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: really shot right up for those that are unvaccinated versus
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: those are hospitalized and vaccinated. DR. When we get to
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: the other side of this omicron variant, will we be
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: left with effectively two population is one that's been vacced
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: boosted H and the other that has been infected with
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: some variant. Is that where we're going to be? You know,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I think this this variant is going to put up
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: much more immunity in our population and that's it's a
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: good and a bad thing, right. So the bad thing
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: obviously is we don't want anybody to get infected and
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: we rather have them have that vaccine induced immunity UM
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: if and when they do encounter this virus and if
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: they don't have that vaccine induced community. You know, I
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: think it's pretty certain that it's just now a matter
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: of when people are going to get infected UM with
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: this virus, knowing that it's going to be with us
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: in perpertuity. And so that's where we want to make
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: sure we emphasize that people have these army of soldiers UM,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: these antibodies in their body before they encounter the virus.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: They have you know, low risk of severe outcomes. And
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: so I think as we look at moving forward year
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: three in this pandemic, what are we going to see?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: How are we going to move forward? You know, I
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: think that we are going to have much more immunity
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: in our population. We probably will go vary into variants,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So you probably are hearing more new variants kind of
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: come up, um, you know, on the radar. That's just
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: going to be unfortunately the reality. But I think that
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: if we have better immunity in our population. We're able
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: to kind of save off kind of the worst outcomes
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: of this of this virus. We heard from Scott Gottlieb
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: as well. Dr Scott Gottlieb that this was the year
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: when we finally start to treat this is the flu seasonal,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: We care, but it doesn't shut everyone down. Do you
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: see that as well? This year is that year? I
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: am hopeful, um, But I think it's one of those
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: things prediction as a as a full game in that sense, um,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: and so we can't predict exactly if this is going
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: to be the year. Next year is going to be
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: the year. Eventually we will get over uh this this
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: big hump. We will learn to live with this virus
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: and we have we will have kind of an endemic state.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: It's very hard to tell when that's going to be,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: and certainly I think the the indicators that we have
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: is showing that that will be the case for this year.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: But again with this virus, I think the number one
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: thing many of us have learned is we have to
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: stay humble and we have humility because this virus just
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: throwing so many different curveballs all the time. Absolutely is
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: absolutely right. Dr Cyra Madad Senior director system Wide Special
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Pathogens Program for NYC Health and Hospitals, giving us the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: latest here on this onmicron variant and as it winds
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: its way through the population. UM. Here in New York City,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: schools are open. UM. I know in other parts of
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: the country, various big cities, some schools are closing, going
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: virtual if you will, UM, and not here in New
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: York City. So we'll see how that plays out. As
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: we've been over the past couple years trying to get
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: smarter on this virus, on vaccines, on boosters. There's been
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: a something that I've seen written about a lot, and
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I have to admit I didn't I don't know too
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: much about, but I want to get smarter on because
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I didn't spend maybe I didn't spend enough, pay enough
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: attention to my science classes growing up. But t cells
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: and what that means here as we think about treating,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: continuing to treat and deal with this pandemic. But our
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: next guest certainly knows about that stuff. Chad Robbins, President, CEO,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: and co founder of Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporations. It's a NASTAC
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: listed company. A DPT is the symbol on your Bloomberg terminal.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: It's got a market capitalization of three point six billion dollars. Chat.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us here. What do I
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: need to know about T cells and how they deal
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: with this virus? Well, first of all, thank you, good morning.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I'm really pleased to be here today and speak with
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: you about the importance of T cells, especially during the
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: height of this oh maicron wave here. Um, there's really
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: you know, a couple of things. You know is that
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: there are two parts of the adaptive immune system UH
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: antibodies and T cells. And we've heard a lot about
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: anibodies in the last couple of years, but now we're
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: starting to hear about T cells. We've been banging the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: drum about T cells. Your antibodies or what are your
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: humral response they're there to prevent disease, and your T
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: cells or your cellulars fonts are there to eliminate disease.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: UM viruses use human cells as factories to create more virus.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: And so if one good analogy, if you think about it,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: is that the vaccine to induce both these B cells
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: just created anibodies in these T cells, and these antibodies
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: are a sense around the factory to keep the virus out.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: But the other way is these T cells is once
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: the virus winds up getting into the factory, these T
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: cells are like the bombs that doesn't destroy the factory
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: when they do get in. And what's happening now as
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: we moved through the Greek alphabet on these variants of
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: concerns is more and more the virus is getting into
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the cell and it's really the T cell that's playing
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: this really critical role in preventing us from getting really sick. Okay,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: so what is the research show us so far then
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: about preventing the disease and different levels of this and
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: different people. Yeah, well, our study found that greater than
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: two words of the T cell response to the vaccines
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: is on target against omicron variant. Well, the antibody responses
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: dwindled below ten, so it's really not not correlated. And
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: so a lot of the virus is getting in and
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the T cells and that response level is staying extremely high,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: which is what ultimately is one to one to you know,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: why we're having cold and flue life symptoms for the
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: most part if you're vaccinated, because these vaccines are inducing uh,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: this this, this, you know pretty strong T cell response. So, Chad,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: I mean that there's so many arguments for getting the vaccine.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: We we we all know them. Um, if you don't
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: have the vaccine, let's and you do get infected, do
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: you then have natural T cell immunity? There, you do
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: have some natural T cell immunity. But what luckily, and
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: it wasn't necessarily the intention, but the vaccines actually induced
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: a very significant, diverse and robust T cell response. So
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: your T cell levels and your response is extremely high
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: with the vaccination. In addition to what happened was originally right,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: we designed a very specific kind of fence against the
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: original strain from Ruhan, But as as you started to
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: have additional strains, the virus is mutating much faster than
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: you can manufacture and distribute the vaccine. Therefore, it's really
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: this kind of T cell response that's wind up what
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: is really protecting us against it. So if you're vaccinated,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: that's why, if you're if you're excuse me, that's why,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: if you're not vaccinated, the chances of you dying or
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: being hospitalized are that's much greater. Why don't we know
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: then about because you're talking about how the vaccine it's
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: changing so quickly that the vaccines can't keep up. Just
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: technologically we can distribute them as quickly. Is the variance
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: are emerging? What then can we do? What? What are
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: some of the takeaways as we think about maybe this
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: becoming an annual sort of flu like seasonal event. Yes.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Actually UM Adaptive partner with a company called night Code,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: a publicly listed company in the Netherlands. UH that where
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: we're specifically designing a vaccine to induce a a a
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: robust T cell response. We actually know the parts of
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the virus that that that protect us and that induce
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: a very diverse tithel response. So specifically designing a T
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: cell based vaccine as a universal booster is one thing
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: that we can and are looking at doing. UH. The
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: other thing we can do is Adaptive is developed a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: technology UM called t dash detect dot com that's able
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: to measure the T cell response. So the ability to
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: know when when your T cell response continues to be
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: high and how long, so the question of when it
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: is that we actually need to take a booster. UH.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: One thing that needs to be done is the FDA
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: needs to incorporate the T cell response in all of
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: its clinical trials period. We now have the technology to
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: do this, and it needs to be done because seeing
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: that T cell response and measuring that T cell response
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: is a is the measure of of vaccine efficacy and
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: so it Chad, do you believe that as we continue
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: to iterate vaccines and and maybe get to an annual
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of flu slash covid vaccine, that they
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: will in fact be you know, really sensitive to the
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: creating that T cell immunity. I do. I do believe that,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: and I do believe that's why, Uh, this virus will
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: become endemic in the population. Over time, it will become
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: more like the you know, the flu coal them flu
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: that we will get kind of an an annual an
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: annual shot to be able to continue to induce that
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: that tail response, uh, and it we'll wind up essentially
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: being being in our population unfortunately like the flu is.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: But but fortunately we do have this amazing mechanism of
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: our immune system, and fortunately we have the ability to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: measure it now. So in particular, there's a there's a
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: population out there that are immune compromised UM that don't
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: mount an anti an antibody response. So it's you can't
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: you can't measure that, so you need to measure the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: response to to see if these this this subset of
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the population, those are that are on cell depleting therapy,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: such as blood cancer patients or or immune compromise patients. Um,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: they really really need to be able to measure the
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: T cells. Chad, thanks so much for taking the time
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: and sharing your knowledge and wisdom with us. Really appreciate it.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Chad Robbins, President, CEO and co founder of Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Let me let's get a little bit smarter on this
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: concept of T cells and how they help in the
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: fight against this coronavirus and this. Greg jarffrom Bloomberg News
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: pointed out, we first heard about that this with h
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I V and I do remember that. Let's talk taxes.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Why not everybody loves to talk taxes. I think taxes
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: are going up, is what I understand. So what do
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: I need to do in terms of my portfolio, in
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: terms of my tax planning? UM, I don't know. Let's
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: go to somebody who does this for a living. Lisa
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: feathering Gil, National director of Wealth Planning at Comerica Bank.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: At Lisa, thanks so much for joining us here. What
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: are you telling your clients here as we head into
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: two in an era that likely we'll have some higher taxes.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Good morning. Well, there are a couple of things that
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I am suggesting they focus on. First. At the beginning
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of a new year, so it's always a good time
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: to make sure that withholding is accurate, that contributions to
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: retire plans are back at the level that they need
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: to be. And it's a wonderful time to update the
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: balance sheet. Um and actually this is something that we
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: do in my household every January. And if you've ever
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: changed jobs, you know how you have duplication of let's
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: say four oh one K plans and h S, A
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: S and all those types of things from multiple employers.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: It's a wonderful time to pull everything together, look at
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: what you've got, and look at the asset allocation across
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: all of those buckets of assets and re balance. So
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: even though you might incur some games, from a strategic perspective,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: it's great to go ahead and take those games and
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and reinvest the money and maybe some asset classes that
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: didn't do as well last year. That's a good place
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: to start. Yeah, you know, it was interesting because Paul
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: was saying that, Um, well, as we've heard, taxes aren't
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: going down. We know that, but you know, I am
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: curious if they're going up. Because we've talked about build
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: back Better. At least for now, it's been shelves of
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the time being. So where are we in terms of
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: the tax outlook, Well, you know it's in the Senate,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: uh House the record right now, but um, the Senate
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: has said they are going to take it up. There
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: was a lot that was included in the original legislation
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: of Build Back Better that that never made it to
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the Senate. So you know, we escaped a few bullets.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: But there are a couple of things to be aware of. One,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: if the Senate takes us up in January and it
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: makes its way through the legislative process early in the year,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: we don't know if the legislation will be retroactive to
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: January one. It's possible, so that's something to be on
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the lookout for. The other thing is the surtax. So
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: there's not a real increase in tax rates for the
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: majority of people, but for individuals making over ten million
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: a year or trust with income over two hundred thousand
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: dollars a year. There is that new surtax that's proposed
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: and build back better five for individuals making ten million
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: or trust at two hundred thousand, and it's an additional
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: three for individuals at twenty million of income and trust
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: at five hundred thousand. So a lot of tax planning
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: around trusts and beneficiaries that could be happening this year too, Hey, Lisa,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: For those of us in the metro New York area
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: and some other urban areas like San Francisco and Los Angeles,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: the whole salt tax deduction cap, that's a big thing.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Do we know where that is now? Because that seems
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: to be a big point of discussion amongst legislators. You're
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: absolutely right, a lot of back and forth. There was
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: talk about a seventy tho dollar cap on the deduction
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: and a phase out which would really affect high income
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: tax payers. But no real clarity on that one yet.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: And that's what's been so funny, because I know that
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: we've been talking a lot about the salt cap deduction
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: and just not quite getting there. Lisa talked to us
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: sort of in the future, what what are you talked
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: a lot about some of the rebalancing and we know
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: that at least on the big pension level, we've seen
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that maybe some rebalancing out of equities back into UM
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: bonds just given the big outperformance. Are you seeing that
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: as well on maybe an individual level? Oh? Absolutely, and
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: we actually actually recommend more of a strategic rebalancings. So
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: let's say you've worked with your financial person and you've
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: come up with a target allocations, say between fixed income
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: and equities. Well, you know the last three years that
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the UM, even the domestic stock market has been up
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: over twenty so naturally you're going to be out of balance.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: So what I like to do is take some of
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: those profits on the off the table, right, UM, go
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: ahead and rebalance so that you're at your target allocations,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: say for the equities, which would mean selling some, and
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to get your target allocation for the fixed income, which
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: is probably lower than target right now, you end up
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: buying when the values are a little bit lower. Lisa,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: your thoughts and perspective here on how should we think
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: about our portfolios and what might be a higher tax environment.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Lisa feather and Gilt, National Director of Wealth Planning at
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: America Bank. Right now, I'm thinking about alternative investments because
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at a rate environment where I'm not sure
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: where I'm going to get a return here, certainly not
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: in the treasure market. I'm not sure about the equity markets.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Given the big move in twenty one, I'm gonna need
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: to think about alternative investments. Our next guest thinks about
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: that as well. C J. Felini, managing partner of Noyak Capital.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: C J. Thanks so much for joining us here. What
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: alternative investment ideas areas are you talking to your clients
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: about here as we enter two, Well, again, great to
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: be here. In the low tailor hibaull Um. We are
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: focused on real estate and we have general themes and
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: then we execute within those themes, primarily supply chain and logistics.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: It's so exciting to talk about the scintillating topic of
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: supply chain and logistics, which here too. Four. You know,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the past five years you didn't have twenty seven mentions
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: and we've had twenty seven mentions on the general business
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: channels today. All right, so talk to us about the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: themes that you're looking at. We've been talking about supply
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: chain has been a big one right investing in warehouses.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Some of these mobility has where are you looking at
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: right now? Well, we have a diversified approach, so that
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: includes dry industrial UM, but especially the cold chain infrastructure.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Cold storage also known as mobility hubs is more of
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a of a development and value add play where we believes,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: as the soft Bank with their one billion dollar investments
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: about a year ago eighteen months ago and Uber Eats
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: and door Dash, that large structured parking garages are going
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: to be underutilized for parking in the future. They're well located,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: they're they're in downtown ms as close to populations, and
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: they're big and they are and they can be repurposed
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: for micro fulfillment. So as a theme, micro fulfillment will
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: be discussed just as much as the ship's docked off
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: the l a port is right now. You're going to
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: have UM You're going to have cloud kitchens on the roof,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: You're going to have cold storage pods on deck four,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: You're going to have Amazon and other lockers where you
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: can do where you can do drop off and pick up.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Because we have to rethink what supply chain really means
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: in this country. Just a quick aside, listen nation states
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: are becoming more xenophobic. Globalism was attacked mercilessly under the
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: last administration. So every every developed country has to build sustainable,
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: vertically integrated supply chains within their own boundaries. That takes years.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: It's really hard. Amazon is building an airport network under
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: executive Dave Clark, just to do that their own airport network.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: We believe that there is a version for the middle
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: market and small business that it has to be built
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: on the ground up, and that is what we're discussing
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: in supply chain and logistics and more importantly micro fulfillment.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: So c J, where are we seen this? Give us
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: some examples of this micro fulfillment because you know there
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: is that obviously that chain of that thought that we
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: are do need to onshore more of the supply chain.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Where are some good examples that you're seeing it. Well,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: there's two versions. It's a Barbell approach. You have the
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: legacy the older regional, large, massive distribution centers that are
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: more hubb and spoke if you will, with using pointing
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a term from the aviation in the shirline and shape
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: hubb and spoke. That's fine, but people are are dispersed
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: they're not. They're moving out of cities, so you have
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: to deliver where they are some of So for example, um,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: there's a company called Americle. Yes, it's publicly traded and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: it's a read they are buying. Previously would have been
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: an average of a hundred thousand square foot regional distribution
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: for the cold supply chain. Now it's fifteen thousand in
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: a borough of New York City, which is within twenty
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: minutes of the mass of the Bell curve of the population.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: So if you can't bring organic or frozen produce to
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: the largest portion of the population within twenty to thirty minutes,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: you're in the wrong location. Yeah. Interesting. I'm also taking
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: a look at your bio and your early stage investor
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: in SpaceX and and taking a look at supporting growth
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: for female entrepreneurs. Talk to us about the female entrepreneurs,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: some of the ideas and some of those investment opportunities
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: that you see. Well, I I wish I could say
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: that I was more pressing on that. I learned from
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: some very smart people Jesse Draper of Halogen Adventure, Steve
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Steve daughter, but but a phenomenal investor in our own right. Um,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: they gave me a very simple thesis. You know here
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: there is maybe a gross under investment or under allocation
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: of venture capital and family office in r I A
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: capital in female founders to the tune of maybe six.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: If anyone thinks that there are not capable female executives
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: who can create unicorns to that degree, they are grossly mistaken.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: So that that reallocation of capital is going to realize
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: that they have to deploy capital in these companies, and
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: they're gonna do it quickly. So those people who are
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: there first are going to benefit from understanding that. UM
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: that that distortion in the allocation of capital and under
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: female founders. Um I do it both direct as well
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: as through people. As I mentioned Jesse Draper Ploge inventure yours.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: And it's across the gamut of fintech. A lot of
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: CpG which we love because of its cash flow and
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: its scalability. And there are there are private their investment
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: clubs for the the smaller investor. Golden Seeds is a
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: great way to invest less than ten thousand dollars in
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: a female founded company and they are open to everyone.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: C J where one percentage I mean of of individual's portfolio.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Do you think should be allocated to alternative investments because
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you know, the argument could be made that you know,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: most investors are underinvested in you know, maybe some of
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the alternatives. UM, excellent question, and unfortunately only have seven minutes,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: but I'll try. I'll try and parse it. So yes,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: it is. It is something I rail against NonStop that
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: investors of every size and stripe, whether it's billion dollar
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: family offices or the retail investor at a fifty hundred
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: thousand all level total or twenty thousand all level, we
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: are all under invested in alternatives. Now within alternatives, those
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: those very encouraged categories, I I would argue that that
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: private real estate investments, private reads should be up to
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: thirty eight percent of the of your alternative allocation alternative
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: of your portfolio. If you want to rule a thumb,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: there's many, there's many disagreements on that. I follow Robert Swinson,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the legendary late investor of the y l C. I
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: l if anyone put it more succinctly, and if anyone
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: who proved the return power of private investments was Mr Swenson,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: and I follow his lead. All right, c J, thank
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: you so much for chatting with us, really fascinating stuff.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: You probably need to talk more about alternative investment opportunities
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: as opposed to that sixty forty traditional equity fixed income portfolio.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: C J. Felini, Managing partner at Noyak Capital, giving us
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: some thoughts here and uh talking about some of the
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: logistics supply chain issues and some investment opportunities. Uh, they're
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: so pretty fascinating stuff. And again, alternatives I think for
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of investors, you know, probably not representative enough
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: in the average portfolio. For the average investor, maybe we
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: think that at particularly world of low yields kind of
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: an issue there. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller. Put on false Sweeney I'm
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.