Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Fed Has to Pivot, Sooner or Later -- Craig Hemke #5901

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The Fed Has to Pivot, Sooner or Later -- Craig Hemke #5901 · Financial Survival Network

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I'm frustrated because I'm Trump like everybody else. You see where this is going.
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You know the Fed can't keep doing this forever. How the Fed themselves
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are pricing in four rate cuts next year, but it's just postponing of that
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that is inflating the dollar index and depressing the metals, and that's what's so
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depressing for all of us. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome you are watching listening to
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the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry Lutts. Hey, We're
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in mid September now, if you can believe it, price of gold well
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it's been going down, price of Starbucks, Big Max, and everything else
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around you has been going up. We want to find out from our good
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friend Greg Hemkey, what is the deal here and when we can expect to
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see some movement. We are Craig in the vaulted third quarter where gold is
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seasonally goes up eighty percent of the time, Is this one of those twenty
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percent of the time that it doesn't go up? Yeah? I carry yeah,
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I tell you. As you're talking about that, I'm thinking like of
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dog years, you know, like every human year is seven dog years,
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or you know, whatever the hell it is. And H twenty twenty three
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has has extracted about three years of toll on me. I think maybe another
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one would be remembering the Princess for Bride, when Wesley's laid out on that
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rack and the six fingered man comes in and says, I'm sucking life out
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of you. That's what this That's what this year feels like. It's it's
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extraordinarily frustrating just for me personally, because you know, I run my annual
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forecast every January and I it's like the conditions that I've been waiting for just
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keep getting pushed back, and it's driving me crazy. I thought it,
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really I expected, and you recall this from our previous discussions this year.
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I thought this year'd be a lot just kind of flat for the first six
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months and not really go anywhere. And I have gold was up. I
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don't know a hundred bucks maybe the first half of the year nineteen eighty five,
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Yeah, I mean had a pretty good first half and silver too.
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And then I thought, you know, as like previous years of FED pivots
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and you know, turning back toward rate cuts, it's when it becomes really
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obvious that that's the direction they're going that that's when the metals have taken off.
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And I thought, by well, surely by the second half of the
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year that will become obvious because they've hiked right so quickly, you know,
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the economy would be slowing, and instead, I mean we've spent the last
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three or four months with you know, all of these manufactured headlines that make
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it appear that everything's great, Like the jobs report, you know where they
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go in they tell you one number on the first Friday the month, and
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then they come back on the first Friday the next month it revised that previous
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one down and then maybe revise it again the next month to the point where
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nobody nobody cares. I mean back in June, the July what came out
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in July was a June report, and they said it was two hundred and
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seven thousand versts and expectation of two ur and thirty and l was disappointing,
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but I mean not that bad. By the time they gave us the final
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revision a week ago, two weeks ago, it's actually a hundred and five.
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They'd come out with one hundred and five on that day, you know,
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the first Friday in July. God knows what would happened, but nobody
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cares. You know, the machines do their thing that oh radar expectations are
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going up and the dollar goes on and it's just maddening. So, like
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I said, I'm frustrated because I'm trumble like everybody else. You see where
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this is going. You know, the FED can't keep doing this forever.
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Hell, the Fed themselves are pricing in four rate cuts next year. But
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it's just post boning of that that is inflating the dollar in decks and depressing
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the metals. And that's what's so depressing for all of us. Hey,
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so let me throw us some numbers by you here. So in twenty twenty
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two, the cost of a Thanksgiving feast for ten was sixty four oh five.
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Now, obviously it's not a high end feast like the Hemkey household of
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the Bux household that but let's just call it an average. And what's good
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there is your basket is fixed. It's like the same turkey, the same
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cranberry sauce that I don't eat, and the same stuffing that I tried not
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to eat, just loaded with carbs. But it was up twenty percent from
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twenty twenty one. It was fifty three thirty one and then it went up
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to sixty four o five. That's twenty percent. However, if you look
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at this year's July fourth barbecue, it was down three percent according to I
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don't know where they were shopping, mind you, they weren't in Florida,
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but it was down three percent from sixty nine sixty eight last year to sixty
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seven seventy three. So maybe the FED has won the battle and they can
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declare victory like Russia in the Ukraine, pick up and go home and start
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doing what they do best, which is printing more money. But it really
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is a tale of two money supplies. Right on the one hand, interest
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rates going up deflationary. On the other hand, they keep pumping money into
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a what is obviously a failing banking system. Yeah, and they will declare
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victory at some point you know, they'll say, you know that we are
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going to how positive real rates are, you know, and we've gotten fed
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funds well above the inflation rate, and you know they'll come up with all
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these reasons to print and and monetize and all this because I'll have to,
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you know, given the debt situation. In the meantime, though, you
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make an extra point because this always gets lost in the spin and the mope,
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the management of perceptions of the daily headlines. You know, let use
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that July fourth basket as an example. Carry it's down three percent from twenty
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twenty two, but how much did it go up from twenty one to twenty
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two? You know, And that's when you know the political economists, you
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know, and the people that were an axe to grind, you know,
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to do this spin. They'll come out and say, oh, look the
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rate of change that was nine per cents down to three. Oh look it
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is great, but it's not those price increases from the last two or three
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years. You're not going back to where you were in twenty twenty and now
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adding three percent, it's just three percent on top of all that damage that
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was done. And everybody forgets about that, and so people the individual just
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keeps getting stretched more and more thin. And they're give you one more thing
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about the jobs report, they count part time jobs as being part of this
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whole sum of new jobs. Well, if you look back, even through
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the Bureau of Labor Statistics owned data, this year, we've lost hundreds of
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thousands of I think even a million full time jobs and added you know,
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a couple of million part time jobs. Well that's got good. You've got
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people who are you know, maybe you were making you know, what's say
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average you know, white collars seventy thousand dollars a year, and you got
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benefits, you got health insurance, you got a four one K right,
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and you get fired, you get laid off, you get downsized, you
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know whatever. You still got a mortgage to make, you know, you
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still got a family, you got to feed all this kind of stuff.
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And so what do you do. You take three gain jobs. You know,
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if you can't get rehired, you're gonna go, you know, work
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at Costco stock and shelves, you know, and you might drive for Uber
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during the day and whatever. So you replace one really good job with three
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not so great jobs out of desperation. That's not good. For anyone.
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However, Hey, the media says, look at that, that's a net
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two jobs, we're told while the Bureau of Labor statistics and so it's really
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there's nothing good or positive about any of this. And you know what,
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I don't mean to champion that is, oh so therefore you got to own
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gold. But what you have to do is you have to then look at
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the eventuality of how this all plays out, you know, and the trillions
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and trillions of debt and the trillions and trillions now of debt service costs,
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where's that cash going to come from? And you can kind of see how
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this plays out even in the current structure of how the metals are priced.
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Hey, and all those tech jobs, man, they were getting six figures
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all of them, and there's like one hundred or two hundred thousand less of
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them. So now they're part of the gig economy doing uber and you just
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see what's happening in China is exactly what's going to happen and happening here in
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the US. All of these people who were middle class, upper middle class,
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now they work for food delivery companies, barely making ends meet. You
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know. Interesting, we're talking pre call and discussed how premiums on gold are
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way up in Asia compared to visa v. Europe in the United States.
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You know, China's currency is pretty much in the Their economy is in full
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blown collapse mode now, and that's got to have an effect on everything.
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Oh, it certainly does and will really be a big story as we know
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turn into the fourth court of the year. Japan too. I mean the
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dollar yen is getting close to one fifty, and people to understand when you
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see that quoted and it going up from one forty one forty five to one
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fifty, that means the end is getting weaker. Looks at the dollars so
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pee people when they say, oh, I don't see it looks like it's
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gone up. No, that means it getting weaker. And last fall it
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got to one fifty and the Bank of Japan had to intervene and drive it
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back down. That actually is part of that turned the dollar indecks. That's
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all part of what got the metals off the map last fall when gold was
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down at sixteen fifty and silver was down nineteen twenty. So those two countries
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and their currencies are gonna be a big story here in the back, you
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know, one hundred days of this year. But this China thing is interesting
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in the premium. You know, they set up a Shanghai exchange what ten
10:39
years ago and ultimately you know it's it's it's all U one and it's convertible
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into essentially buy an extra step into crude oil. That's sort of totally try
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to get these words out of my mouth. Physical market. You can't take
10:56
delivery out of China, and they make delivery into China. Well, you
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know, they're not keen to export any of their precious metal, and no
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one knows how much they officially owned. I mean, that's all guests work
11:09
too. Remember the deal, it was last month and there was this build
11:13
up for about sixty days about the Bricks conference carry you know, and oh
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that Bricks are going to unveil this new currency and all that kind of stuff,
11:22
and maybe someday they will, I wasn't Eventually they will have some kind
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of trade settlement system outside of the dollar, because they've all learned, you
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know that within the US dominated you know, current structure. You get sideways
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with the US, we'll just kick you out. And they're like, oh
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yeah, we're going to be getting sideways with the US. We can't help
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but get sideways with the US. We better have an alternative. So that's
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that's the direction that's going. But the interesting thing about what's going on China
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now is this this disparity. This premium between the price that is being discovered
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and used to trade metal for our redman b you won in Shanghai and the
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other physical markets in China is about currently six percent higher than it is for
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New York London, and that's the highest that it's ever been. There was
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initially in a gap when it first scarred going ten years ago, and it's
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growing by that. Hey, Carrie, The difference in silver is ten percent.
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That's huge. Day as we record, the Shanghai silver price is about
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twenty five fifty an ounce. And what's what is it on comex as we
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recorded back twenty two sixty twenty two seventy something like that. So you think,
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okay, well, what's going on here? And this is where you
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have to one is this related? Is this another step in this bricks thing?
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I don't know, maybe what could be what could be accomplished by allowing
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that that spread to widen, you know, and most people here know,
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you know there's arbit the idea of behind arbitrash. You know, if you've
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got a price discovered here and a price discovered there and they're different, well
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then you sell here and buy there, or you buy here and sell there
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and you meet in the middle. Right. So when you hear there's a
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let's use a silver for example, that you can buy silver on the Comax,
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buy silver on the Comax at twenty two seventy five, but you can
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sell it in Shanghai at twenty five seventy five, why isn't that being art?
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Well, the problem is you're selling it in Shanghai. You're making a
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commitment to physically deliver silver that's some date in the future in Shanghai. Well,
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there's logistics involved in that, right. And then additionally, why does
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why we try to want that to happen? Well, that's sure would seem
13:46
away to attract as much of the Western physical silver supply above ground as possible.
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You make it feasible logistically, and you say, oh, yeah,
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sure, we'll buy as much as you want to sell us at twenty five
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seventy five, bring it on over here. Yeah, And all of a
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sudden, your Western supplies of a critical infrastructure battery metal are suddenly getting hoovered
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up. Same you can again, you could say the same thing for gold,
14:15
maybe in preparation for stockpiling gold for wherever they want to take it in
14:18
the years. It comes very interesting development, something everybody should keep an eye
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on. Yeah, hey, well, you know, uh, I think
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they're going to have to do something. I think the bricks response here has
14:31
more to do with their collapsing currencies than fear of the being excluded from the
14:37
US dollar. All those countries, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, have
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had awful economic growth right right years now since the Great Recession, right right,
14:50
And so we export our inflation to them. You know, it's like
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the old John Connolly thing. You know, it's our currency, but it's
14:56
your problem. So all the developing nations have all their debt and it's dollar
15:03
denominated, and so as a dollar strengthens because of what you know, the
15:09
rate hikes and everything else, all of those emerging market currencies are weakening and
15:15
forcing them to buy even more dollars to certain's all of their dollar based debt,
15:20
and then that makes the situation even worse. And all of that could
15:22
have dramatic implications for the global markets in the back hundred days of this year
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too, And so this is it's a as much as it's aggravating and seemingly
15:33
boring. And it's another year where you know, it's Gold's average a return
15:37
for the last ten years is about nine and a half ten percent. So
15:39
run pays to do that again. And it seems like, you know,
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it's putting me to sleep, and it's frustrating. There's a lot going on
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that's all part of a fundamental story, and you know it just sets us
15:50
up for continuing interesting years next year and beyond. Hey, so what about
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what's happening in Argentina they have a perpetual currency collapse? Is that what we
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have to look forward to? Well, you know, Kerry, you know,
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I remember from when when we first met ten years ago, back then,
16:11
you know, my my site, when it was just getting started,
16:12
we were writing about and we still write about the end of the great King
16:17
Gene experiment, this debt based monetary system which works fine for a while,
16:22
but then you know, just the exponential math of it at the end is
16:26
what does you in You can't print it fast enough and grow fast enough in
16:30
your economy to keep the plate spinning. The US is entering into that phase
16:37
now, it seems finally, but you got other places, like you know,
16:41
Argentina is devaluing their currency at the rate of ten percent per month.
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How do you how do you even have a functioning economy in that you know
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where you're you're demanding. I mean a thing feeds on itself. Right,
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if you're selling goods in Argentina and the manufacturing things or selling cars or whatever
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in the Argentinian currency, I can't remember what it's called. And you're transacting
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in that knowing that ten percent, you know just a month from now that
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your money's gonna get that what you got for that, it's going to do
17:15
value by ten percent. Then you're going to ask for a ten percent even
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more. Now, right begins to go crazy. I will watch the video
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from Tucker Carlson last night on his Twitter account on his Twitter feed, and
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the term that came to me was bymar Argentina because very much of bymar Germany
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type thing that's going on there, and I like it's an it's it would
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be extreme to say that's where we are now in the US because we're not.
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But you know, if we get to fifty trillion dollars in national debt,
17:51
you know, by the end of this decade, and on fifty trillion
17:55
dollars you're paying five percent interest on average, just say five. That's new
18:00
and a half trillion dollars a year needed just a service the debt and so
18:07
that, you know, the currency just devalues so quickly and that again.
18:11
So yeah, gold boring, frustrating, driving me crazy, and the bank's
18:15
doing this, and the short squeezes of that and everything else. The bean
18:18
time. Man, I just there's no nothing better that I can be doing
18:22
than just continuing to add physical gold and silver to my stack and just letting
18:26
this all play out. As you were saying that, a song came to
18:30
mind from the hit play. It was a Broadway Tony Award winning play,
18:37
Well don't Cry for Me Argentina, and then sing it. I'm not going
18:44
to sing it, but it's We'll put a link into the YouTube video.
18:48
Let me see if I can find it here. Tucker Carlson thing, Yeah,
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look, get up on it. You can find it. Carry on
18:56
this and anybody can go just go to on his on his Twitter, pay
19:00
his ex page, yeah, but so he comes up with a video what
19:03
once every couple of days or so. Yeah, sure, and we'll put
19:07
up a link to it, and we'll put up a link to the song
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Don't Cry for New York, you know, donn Award. I found it.
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Hold it here quick, let's see if it comes up. I am
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Vita Ferguson. Yeah. Well and again, and this has been, this
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has been. This is always the endgame, right, and you can go
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all the way back. I'm trying to remember the guy's name, like Denysius
19:37
of Syracuse or whatever the dude's name was, who was the Greek tyrant in
19:44
like the fourth century BC, who was, as at least in the historical
19:49
record, the first cat to disfigure out that if I call in all the
19:55
existing money and then issue just twice as much to everybody. After we do
20:00
that, then all of a sudden, there's all this extra money that we
20:02
can then pay our debts for all our wars and all this kind of stuff.
20:06
And man, this has been going on for twenty four twenty five centuries
20:08
ever since. Oh yeah, let's not forget the Napoleon sold off Louisiana to
20:15
pay for the wars, right, and so you know, we'll see what
20:22
Russia is going to be selling off. You know, it's so interesting the
20:26
Ukraine Russian War because China now is making its move on Russian real estate.
20:33
And you can see, like Siberia they've wanted to colonize it for years,
20:38
but they were afraid of war with Russia. I think chunks of Siberia are
20:44
going to get fried off. Yeah, you know, to keep the war
20:48
going. They took over part of an island that was disputed Russian island recently,
20:55
so you know everybody's the knives are out. They want to of a
21:00
Prussia and sell it off to the highest bidders or the best connected bidders.
21:06
Right, And you make me think of there's a stock I own, so
21:11
like CNBC, the speaker owns this equity, so he's pumping it. But
21:18
Eric Sprott told me about it called Erdine Resources in Mongolia. Yeah, I
21:23
know that's a rhodium producer. If I'm at and they make no, it's
21:26
it's gold. Now I'm some as Eric would say, he's got some pretty
21:33
exciting products. But it's his little company in Fringing Mongolia. But if you
21:38
think that, and so I own some because if you think that is kind
21:44
of an eventuality over there, because who knows, you know, the Chinese,
21:48
that's what you mentioned. Alluded to this earlier with the yuan. They've
21:52
got a lot of printing that they have to do as well. Yeah,
21:56
that makes that puts us to shame with you know, their deflationary forces.
22:03
And you know, whether it was what's a new one country garden or whatever
22:07
is the r he had ever grande a yeah, real estate company and China
22:14
as well as the banks. Every single bank in China is insolvent now.
22:18
Yeah, so the currency controls in place, so you can't take out more
22:22
than x amount per day withdrawals there you go, so a carrie in the
22:27
end of the day. It gets back to why I started this sight in
22:32
the first place. We talked about medals and it's you know, it's a
22:33
there's never a shortage of stuff to talk about there. But like I said,
22:38
going back to fourth century BC, this is how these things play out,
22:45
and the the world has been untethered now for fifty two years, unhinged,
22:51
I would say, print, unhinged, printed, Fiat backed by nothing,
22:56
right, military power, I guess you could say really nothing and in
23:02
the end, you end up overprinting because that's the only way that can be
23:06
sustained for a certain amount of time. And then you lose complete confidence in
23:11
the currency. And the only way you can regain confidence is to back it
23:15
with something. And that's what the bricks are preparing. The hell that's probably
23:19
you know, a country like Argentina. I don't think they have any gold
23:22
reserves, but that's a direction that they have to go to. You've got
23:25
to re establish confidence in your in your currency, and so when all this
23:30
plays out, that's the direction of the world ships. And that's why me
23:34
and almost I would imagine everybody at my side, that's why we all just
23:40
keep adding to our stacks in preparation for that inevitability. Yeah. Well,
23:45
the one thing you know is that backing the currencies again with something gold,
23:49
whatever it might be, whatever, that is the endgame, because at means
23:55
giving up political power, right, the power to go right checks to your
24:00
friends and prosecute and persecute your enemies rights. If you don't have the money
24:03
to do it, you can't do it. Right. Did you see the
24:07
thing yesterday about Folkhanas, Right, Yeah, she's all under must Yeah,
24:12
and now she's got it. What does she work? Two hundred million dollars
24:15
or something after Bishocahantas is worth two hundred mill I saw it yesterday. Yeah,
24:22
that's pretty a Native American from Oklahoma, right. You know, you
24:29
would think she'd, you know, she'd donate some to the res, you
24:32
know, and build some community centers and stuff like that. I would think
24:36
she would. You know, she's in favor of donating everybody else's money voluntarily,
24:41
she should be donating some of her own. Right then the goal of
24:45
politicians probably not any area to do it. But but your point is right.
24:48
I mean, as long as they can buy power through graft and corruption,
24:52
they're going to keep doing it. But in the end, again,
24:56
that pendulum swings all the way over here as far I can go. Had
25:02
a child a blade on it, and it's got a blade, it's got
25:07
a blade on the bottom, and it's not going to spare anybody. So
25:10
hey, so you gotta go over to TF Metals report. Craig is running
25:15
a special. The promo code you won't believe what it is. I didn't
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golden and hey, you'll get your first month subscription for a little bit less
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than the price of the current average price of the big Mac. We're talking
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just a sandwich, not the happy meal, not the value meal, but
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just the price of a big Mac. You'll be saving. So you know,
25:41
hey, by the way, Craig, I know you caught this ad
25:44
on zero Hedge because you're a prolific enthusiastic reader as am I. But the
25:48
new gold rush in the United States is fat. Did you catch that?
25:55
No. Basically, big pharma's pursuit of anti obesity drugs is the new gold
26:03
rush. So we have the ultimate paired trade. So Eli, Lily has
26:08
this drug called Munjaro, which is more effective than bariatric surgery, or at
26:14
least as effective. Yeah, well to twenty thousand per year. And their
26:21
market cap, well, the share of Lily back in twenty twenty was going
26:27
for a hundred bucks. It's now at six hundred dollars. The number two
26:33
drug is put up by It's not Novartist, it's Nova something. And their
26:40
market cap has gone over four hundred billion. So you know, the obesity
26:45
epidemic is making trillionaires. We're going to see Lily will be the first trillion
26:52
dollar big farm a company. Geez. So the paired trade is by Lily
26:59
Sell McDonald. Hey, I like it. I like it. I like
27:03
it. Well, you're right, that's that's the shrewd businessman that I am.
27:08
I wrote it. I hadn't done this for months, and so I
27:11
thought, well, maybe because you know, this is going to get interesting.
27:15
I mean the next few months. I mean, the recession is inevitable.
27:18
This hard you know, soft landing, buzz the field crap. I
27:22
hear it every time. I've been hearing it for thirty five years since i've
27:25
been you know, got out of college and became a stockbroker. You know,
27:27
right at the end, right before the recession, everybody starts talking about
27:33
soft land. Well, I can't believe we're hanging in there because of the
27:36
lagging effects. You gotta lead it all play out, brother, Kerry.
27:41
We didn't even talk about commercial banking. You know, in the scene,
27:44
an officer surveys about how tight credit's gonna get and it's gonna put more more
27:48
people out of work. But anyway, more of the story is, this
27:51
is gonna get interesting. So I thought, wow, for fun, if
27:53
you want to join my site, you sign up, you go to you
27:57
buy a monthly subscription, You put in a coupon code of Gold, that's
28:02
creative Gold, and it will cost you five dollars for your first month.
28:07
That's where you said it's less than a big Mac. And now if you
28:10
stick around, it's going to cost you the whole value meal. It's gonna
28:12
cost you fifteen until you handsome all right, big bucks, right, I
28:19
know, And you can tell I'm looking at this extravagant studio I'm sitting in
28:22
and the extravagant productions I put out. This is the lights on. Yeah,
28:27
the lights on. Remember, if there's a soft landing, it's because
28:32
it's landing on the backs of the middle class, right right, that's the
28:37
ending for the wealthy, right for the rich getting richer. So anyway,
28:44
if you want to, I think people can learn a lot, not necessarily
28:47
even for me, but from the other people on my side. So if
28:49
you want to learn something, spend five blocks five blocks and side up,
28:55
use that code gold, and then if you don't like it, quit,
28:59
But I don't think you will. Good deal. High retention rate damn near
29:04
percent. Very few people once they sign up actually cancel. He got a
29:11
question for Craig myself. Shoot me an email kl at Carlets dot com right
29:15
you YouTube comments down below, Craig, we'll talk to you again. Sin.
29:18
I want to talk to you in a few weeks about the banking crisis
29:22
as the effects become more obvious. We didn't even touch upon the fact that
29:26
the emergency lending facility discount window every speek goes higher and hired records. But
29:34
hey, there's nothing wrong man, soft landing. Everything's fine, right,
29:38
nothing can go wrong. Good, let's talk again, because that's a whole
29:42
that's a whole podcast right there. Definitely all right, we'll catch you in
29:47
a few weeks. You'd be well. Thanks for coming on. You got
29:49
it, brother, Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network, your
29:55
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to financial service Vivalnetwork
30:00
dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever