Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / CLARITY Crossroads📉Crypto Market Update

Transcript

CLARITY Crossroads📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's jump into it today, because this is going to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: be a good one. Let's talk about the Clarity issue
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: and what that means for the crypto markets. We'll also
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: be talking a little bit about where tariffs are heading.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: We'll also get into World Liberty find in their recent conference.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: There's a lot happening, so stick around for all of it.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I do, of course, want to just start off quickly
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: with this Coin Desk article, which I thought was interesting. This,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: of course is the additional White House meeting that is
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: talking about stable coin yields, and this is the issue,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: as we all know, for Clarity getting through. The banks
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: are holding on to get into those yields and be
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: able to refrain the rest of the industry from actually
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: paying them. This, of course, I think led to something
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: very interesting. I'll jump over to the next tweet, and
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: that was a spike right here on the odds of
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: being passed Clarity Act spiked up to over ninety percent,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: and when you look at this, it retraced immediately right
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: back down, so very intriguing.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know if there is some insight DC.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: This gets into the whole polymarket and prediction market issue
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: of people having information, is that truly insider information. I
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: think we are on the cost guys of getting a
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Clarity Act through, So be on the lookout. We're going
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: to be covering this very closely as things get heated
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: up in DC. To get going right here, We've got
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: a poll that I think is interesting. We'll see where
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: it lands. I'm going to vote this way, and that
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: is when you look at the Clarity Act, will it
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: mark the bottom for crypto? Let me think, guys, I'm
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: going to say no. Everybody is on the yes side. Oh,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I definitely am right on this one. So we'll see
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: how that plays out if you believe that. Let me
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: know in the comments down below if you think this
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: marks if Clarity go through, marks the bottom. Just put
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: bottom is in with Clarity. I'd love to see that.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick because
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: this clip right here will get into maybe another thing
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: that could mark the bottom for the market, and that's
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: in video.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: So you say there are three key traits, rotation back
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: to the mag seven, the IGV bottoms, that's software, and
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: crypto bottoms. But you're not suggesting that those three items
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: have happened, are you not?
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Yet?
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: But it's we're we're maybe ninety percent of the way
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: through that because I've seen some of the positioning data,
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: so we know on the like for instance, Prime Brokerage
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: Gold Mandata software ownership is like multi decade lows. And
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: then we know that the mag seven have gotten cheaper
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: than the bullet makers, which has never happened in ten years.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: They're three pe points discount. And then of course on
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: the crypto side, we've already gotten to drawdowns that are
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: basically eighty percent of what's been in past crypto winter.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: So I think those are setting up to be really
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: big trades. Maybe they've led the market, so we have
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: a bottom first, and they'll start to rally even if
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: the market's peaking.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Does Nvidia earnings one week from today hold the key,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, did get the result we mean to hear
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: from Jensen Wong.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: I mean that could set the bottom because you know,
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: like if you look at the software index, this is
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: like the eighth week of a pretty severe downturn. So
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: next week, you know, as you know, sometimes nine is
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: a big number turning point that could mark the bottom.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: All right, So there you have it.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Nvidia chart right now as it
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: goes a little bit sideways from that top right there,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: about two to eight, holding as we record this at
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: one eighty six. And I think Tom Lee might be
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: right on this is that in Vidia very interestingly has
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: been going somewhat sideways. Look at the trend up, that
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: was the trend up that we had seen, and then
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: this is the action that really we have seen since
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: about October of last year. So playing this could be
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the factor now. Granted I was intrigued with his idea
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: of rotation back into the mag seven. That would be
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a big move forward. And I think also you look
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: at other opportunities near the bottom, which is where I
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: think we are right now. Eth is going to be
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: centered around that. He put in a little bit of
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: data right here, which I think is interesting, some useful
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: research by Fonstrat and Sean mcfarrell.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: They're talking about and the realized prices.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: If you look at the chart right here, because it's
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: nearing the capitulation levels of realized price, meaning this is
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: where the best price.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: For ethereum could be.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: We are near it right now, and if we get
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: into that nineteen hundred dollars range, I think that might
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: be a very good spot now, could we retrace back
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: down to fifteen hundred bucks sixteen hundred bucks if we
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: see a major impact on the market. Sure, those kind
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: of things can happen. But if you look at fear
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: and greed just in general, we're plummeting again down to
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: an eleven. And of course right now this is a
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: factor that I think will continue to play as long
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: as clarity is looming. Not only clarity, You've got a
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: whole issue now brewing in the Middle East with Iran.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: You also have the continuation of affordability that's facing Americans
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: all over the place. And then you have this right here,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: and that is searches for bitcoin going to zero. Well,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: they have now allocated more than they did in twenty
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: twenty two. They have spiked up. So what is going
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: on with the bitcoin crowd? Have we seen the OG's
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: exit and now we're starting to see a whole new
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: crop of bitcoin people coming in and they're looking at
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: this asset completely different. That is the big question. Other
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: things that you have to consider right now on the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: big macro side courses right here, and that is the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: US UK conflict that could be brewing. The big problem
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: there right now, of course, is Starmer is saying, hey,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: you're not going to put any warplanes in the British
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: raf bases, especially if you're going to use those for
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: strikes on Iran. This is basically one of our supposed
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: allies pushing back on any kind of aggression toward Iran.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, we know what's going on in Iran right now.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: The other thing that you have to consider right now
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: is what's going on with tariffs. Here was President Trump
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: saying that the US will have its first trade surplus
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: in decades. He's cutting it by seventy eight percent. G
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Rock fact checks this and said, now it's around the
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: nine to thirty five twenty twenty five. I don't know
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: where they're pulling this data from. This will probably continue
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: to be a contentious point, I think, especially as we
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: see midterms coming in, because I think the administration is
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: going to continue to push that we've saved a lot
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: of American jobs and all of that. One other point
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I want to hit on is right here, the New
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: York Fed study that showed ninety four percent of terists
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: are increases aren't paid by US consumers. This is a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: problem in companies, of course, but the consumers in most
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: cases get the big brunt of this, and I think
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of people still push back on terraffs. I
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: think this is definitely caused pricing to increase. Consumers and
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: companies are paying it. It's without a doubt. Now there
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: has been some pushback from the administration. Kevin Hassett had
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: something to say about this. Take a look at this clip.
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: The paper is an embarrassment. It's I think the worst
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: paper I've ever seen in the history of the federal
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: reserve systems. What they've done is they put out a
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: conclusion which has created a lot of news that's highly
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: partisan on analysis that wouldn't be accepted in a first
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: semester ECON class.
• 7:04
  Speaker 6: His claims are simply wrong. There are seven papers that
• 7:07
  Speaker 6: came to a similar conclusion. Keel Institute says ninety six
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: percent paid by domestic entities, Yale Budget Lab ninety six.
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: An NBER paper said ninety four percent Goldman Sachs and
• 7:19
  Speaker 6: eighty eight percent. Take him too account how tariffs changed
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: inport values. They did find the share born by exporters
• 7:25
  Speaker 6: increased slightly over time, which is good news as importers
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: rearranged some supply lines when.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: It happened yesterday.
• 7:32
  Speaker 7: I thought, is just more loose talk and bluster that
• 7:35
  Speaker 7: we get from not just the presidence. A lot of
• 7:38
  Speaker 7: people want companies to pay more, and it's raised so
• 7:42
  Speaker 7: much in tariff revenue that some of the big beautiful
• 7:46
  Speaker 7: bill deficits are actually being cut a little bit by
• 7:50
  Speaker 7: some of the tariff revenue.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: So why not like them.
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: These guys can be wrong, they can be dead wrong,
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: but does that mean they should be discipointed?
• 7:56
  Speaker 8: And it's an.
• 7:57
  Speaker 7: Embarrassment talk that was shooting them, that was suiting the messager,
• 8:02
  Speaker 7: and I gloss right out of time.
• 8:03
  Speaker 6: I'm glad we are given the same base on this,
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: Joe all.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Right, So I don't think they ever agree on it,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Joe and the guys there at the NBC. But the
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: point he's getting at is that this was a lot
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: deeper in terms of the research that was being done.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: You look further into what's going on around jobs, because
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: this is the concern right now. If you look at
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: a recovery in markets, you need two things. You need
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: stability on pricing which has not been able to be maintained,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: and you need jobs coming back well. Right now, Trump's
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: first year in office is the worth job growth that we've.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Seen this decade. That's including, of course, excluding COVID. This
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: is the.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Problem that I've talked about here countless times on the show,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: is that jobs are a concern of mine. Now we
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: have seen a little bit of lightening of the job pressure,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: but only this year only. And here we are just
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: now in February going into March. Could we see a
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: little bit more lightning. Maybe that changes the outlook here,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: which will help I think in general.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: But right now the pressure is on for sure.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Other news I want to get into is what's happening
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: over at the World Liberty Finance Conference, And of course
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: they announced a lot of new stuff. One of course
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: was the RWA's that they are talking about. They're officially
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: partnering with Securitized and dark Global and this is going
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to bring institutional grade RWA offerings out to the public.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: This was an interesting result because the first asset on
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: the list is the hotels of Trump's family in the Maldives.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And here's what happens within this. This next post gets
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: into it. This is the it hits dead on.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: First of all, they're turning future.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Hotel revenue into a tradable token, so bitch is pretty simple.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: You unlocked liquidity from Trump International Hotel project. This, of
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: course back by securitizing this. I'm getting into the point
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: where I see, there's so much of this I don't
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: want to say going on, but these are. It just
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: reminds me a lot of some previous runs that we've
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: seen in crypto.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: And the catch the asset isn't live.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: No operating cash flow completion slated for twenty twenty eight.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: That's a problem, and you have the token.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Go live in thirty days tradeer form day one. Yeah,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I think he's right on this concept is bold. The
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: risk is definitely obvious.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: Guys. I would not suggest and going into any of
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: these at all.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: But you know what, let's listen to what Eric and
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Don had to say about it.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: Well, you know.
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: What, the what the critics would say, I'd say that
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: the credibility factor is the Trump name and the Trump
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: White House and that everyone you know is here to
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: curry favor.
• 10:41
  Speaker 8: I agree, Well, the great Iron days, they didn't give
• 10:44
  Speaker 8: us much a choice.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: When you had every They created this monster. When you
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: had every big bank in the world for.
• 10:51
  Speaker 8: They left us no choice. They created this monster. What
• 10:54
  Speaker 8: they should have said, was oh, Sarah. Sarah Eisen is
• 10:57
  Speaker 8: the CNBC host, Sarah, I don't know what you're talking about.
• 10:59
  Speaker 8: I mean, you know, no, Here's why we have so
• 11:01
  Speaker 8: much credibility in this industry. This has nothing to do
• 11:04
  Speaker 8: with our father. Here are the firewalls, here are the
• 11:06
  Speaker 8: layers of protection, the layers of ethical guidance that we
• 11:10
  Speaker 8: go to totally separate ourselves from our father. This has
• 11:13
  Speaker 8: nothing to do Here's where our father has taken actions
• 11:16
  Speaker 8: in the White House, which has actually been to our detriment.
• 11:18
  Speaker 8: Here's why this is not a conflict of interest, Here's
• 11:20
  Speaker 8: why this is not corrupt. Instead, what they say is
• 11:24
  Speaker 8: we had no choice. They gave us no choice. They
• 11:26
  Speaker 8: created this monster. It's actually people who criticize Donald Trump
• 11:29
  Speaker 8: who made us cash in on the Trump presidency.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, guys, I know many of you are
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: big Trump fans, some of you are not.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: And whether you like it you don't like it. The
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: real question is.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: What's happening right now I think is very questionable. I
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: think in general, if we're going to see this go
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: forward now, granted, there are many financial organizations have done
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: similar things in terms of very advanced risk assets like this.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I think that is going to continue to be a
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: factor here. The fact that he said that on air
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: of you know, they created this monster even surprised me
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: for sure. Other things you got to look at, of course,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: is what Kobe Eesy was talking about, and this is
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the US economy now reliant on older Americans. So fifty
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: five plus now represent forty five percent of consumer spending.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: This is the boomers. This is where most of the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: cash is. But in reality, I've done some research on this.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: This is actually more globally aware. Is that this is
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: where the capital is going. And this is nearly double
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: since the early two thousands. But the reason is because
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: we have not seen a major shift in wealth out
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: of the boomer class and into the millennials, the Gen
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: X my generation, we weren't large enough to make a dent,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: you know, in the global wealth trap that seems to
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: be out there. But if you look at the comparison
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: right now, the gap between the gap between the two
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: groups has narrowed by thirty five percentage points over the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: last twenty five but it is on track to convert
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: for the first time. So it is getting to the
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: point where we could see a very intriguing shift of
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: wealth coming forward. One last thing I want to hit on,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: of course, is this right here, big warning for the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: first major domino that has fallen, and that is that
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: we're starting to see now a one point seven billion
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: private credit fund that's aimed at retail investors has now
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: gone into trouble. And I think this may be a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: little bit of PTSD coming in from what we saw
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: during the twenty twenty one run and that bullmarket, and
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: of course the many of many of the things that
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: were fallout issues into the markets, including bank runs, issues
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: with bank failures. The problem with what we're going to
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: see here now in private credit, this all boils down
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: to overheated markets leverage that is now starting to pay
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the price. And this is where we are right now.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you guys think in the comments.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Of course, we'll get into more of this. I anticipate
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: we're about to see something big though, with clarity.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Stay tuned.
• 14:08
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• 14:10
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• 14:13
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• 14:14
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