Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Trump warns Iran deal 'not final' as G7 summit ends

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Trump warns Iran deal 'not final' as G7 summit ends · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: He says, focus though, a little bit on what Trump
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: has been saying. President Trump in his meetings today he
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: had a meeting with President Alcesi of Egypt and also
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Modi of India, and he's been talking about
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: the memorandum of understanding now. Monday, when he arrived at
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the summit, he said that the agreement was done, that
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: we would get details on the agreement when the signing
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: ceremony takes place on Friday. But today he's saying that
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: nothing is really decided until the final treaty, whenever that
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: might come. He's also disputed a figure that has been
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  Speaker 1: circulated in the draft of that memorandum, which has appeared
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  Speaker 1: today in Arab media, and the figure is three hundred
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: billion dollars that Iran would receive for reconstruction if it
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: complied with the demands that are being made of it.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: On the nuclear question, Trump says that's not the case.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: It's fake reporting, he says, fake news. And he says
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  Speaker 1: the United States will not be paying assent towards Iran reconstruction.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Have a listen, I would think they would do it.
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  Speaker 2: If they don't, then that's you know, that's okay. We'll
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: have to start the process again and we don't lose.
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  Speaker 2: We have the greatest military in the world. We have
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  Speaker 2: the greatest blockade. The naval blockade was one effective. And
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  Speaker 2: again they have no navy, they have no air force,
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  Speaker 2: all bombed. I don't want to say the leaders, but
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  Speaker 2: first level of leader God, second level of leaders God,
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  Speaker 2: some of the third level of leaders God. And they
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  Speaker 2: want to make it do they are so ready to
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  Speaker 2: make it.
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  Speaker 1: I would just draw issue with his description of the
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  Speaker 1: third level of the regime gone. The President, the speaker,
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  Speaker 1: the Foreign Minister of Iran are the very same people
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  Speaker 1: that were there when the war started. And of course
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  Speaker 1: many of the things that happen in Iran which the
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: President doesn't like, continue We've heard about the execution yesterday
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: of two people who were arrested during those protests back
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  Speaker 1: in January. So this idea that the Uranian people have
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: somehow discovered their freedom is not the reality, certainly not
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  Speaker 1: to the people in Iran. We're also, of course, focusing
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  Speaker 1: on the movement of shipping through the Strait of Jumuz.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: President Macron has been talking in the last few minutes
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  Speaker 1: about the support the UK and France and the coalition
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  Speaker 1: they've built will lend to that effort as and when
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  Speaker 1: the agreement is formally signed. Yesterday, fourteen ships went through
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  Speaker 1: the Strait, but that is well short of the one
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  Speaker 1: hundred and thirty ships that went through before the war started.
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  Speaker 1: So let's pick that up and talk about what the
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  Speaker 1: military effort in that direction might look like. Mark Cansion
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: is a retired US Marine Corps Reserve and senior advisor
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  Speaker 1: with the Thesis International Security Program. Thank you very much
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: for being with us.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on the program.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I wonder if I could just initially get your reaction
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  Speaker 1: to what we've been reporting in the last few minutes
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  Speaker 1: that the Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney is suggesting there
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  Speaker 1: needs to be European representation at the table in the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: negotiations with Moscow, maybe a leader from a medium sized
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  Speaker 1: country here in Europe who could speak on Ukraine and
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  Speaker 1: Europe's behalf. How do you think the US president might
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  Speaker 1: react to that?
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  Speaker 3: Well, on the one hand, it's very sensible because the
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  Speaker 3: Europeans are deeply involved with this war. It's much closer
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: to them than it is to the United States. On
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  Speaker 3: the other hand, President Trump has tended to do these
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: things laterally likes the one on one negotiations. When we
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  Speaker 3: were doing them negotiating about a year ago, the Europeans
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  Speaker 3: were involved. You may remember that the prime ministers came
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: to Washington to be part of that. So there is
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  Speaker 3: some precedent, and we'll see how that plays out, particularly
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: now that the United States has stepped back and the
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: Europeans have stepped up.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: They seem to be very confident, the Europeans that they've
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: re engaged Donald Trump in the negotiation over Ukraine. They've
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  Speaker 1: got him to sign on to the Joint Communicate. Do
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  Speaker 1: you think there is space for the Americans to re
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  Speaker 1: engage now that this Iran document is being signed.
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  Speaker 3: Well, we certainly hope. So. The President has moderated some
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: of his language and the more extreme possibilities that were
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  Speaker 3: seen at the beginning of the administration, like pulling out
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  Speaker 3: of NATO entirely or clearly not going to happen. On
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  Speaker 3: the other hand, there have been moves from the White
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  Speaker 3: House to stop or prove rotations. We'll see how that
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: US posture plays out. But I think President Trump and
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: the White House have realized that they need allies. We
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: needed them in the Gulf War, we need them to
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: open the streets, and we need them in Europe.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: He was asked in his press conference with Prime Minister
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  Speaker 1: Modi what he made of the European offer to help
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  Speaker 1: with the policing of the Strait of Juor Mouz. The
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  Speaker 1: French presidents just said that they stand ready to assist.
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  Speaker 1: The President says, well, we'll take that help if it's there,
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  Speaker 1: but we don't really need it. Is that really true?
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  Speaker 3: Not really. The President likes to believe, likes to argue
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  Speaker 3: that the United States could do all of this on it.
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  Speaker 3: So in a sense, we could, but our mind sweeping
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  Speaker 3: capabilities are very poor. We've always relied on our allies
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  Speaker 3: and partners, particularly those in NATO, to provide that capability.
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  Speaker 3: US capabilities a week. The Europeans have some excellent mind
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  Speaker 3: sweeping capabilities, so it really would be helpful to have
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  Speaker 3: them assist.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: You served in the Marine Corps. I'm going to ask
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  Speaker 1: you about the deployment to the region. If the draft
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  Speaker 1: is correct, the draft that's circulating that we've seen today
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  Speaker 1: in the Arabic press, it suggests that they will take
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  Speaker 1: a standoff posture in the coming sixty days. What does
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  Speaker 1: he do with all the troops and sailors and m
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  Speaker 1: and women that are in that area over the next
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  Speaker 1: few months.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the President has said he's not going to pull
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  Speaker 3: them back immediately, so I think that they will remain there.
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  Speaker 3: You might see some rotations, you might see some small
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  Speaker 3: reductions of all the US I think will continue to
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  Speaker 3: have the capability to launch strikes if the President were
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  Speaker 3: to order it. He just threatened that the other day,
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  Speaker 3: So I think you'll see increased US forces, maybe some rotations,
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  Speaker 3: maybe some small reductions at least until it's clear that
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: there is a negotiated settlement that is being arrived at.
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  Speaker 1: And just a quick final thought on this document. It's
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  Speaker 1: nothing like the one hundred and sixty pages or so
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  Speaker 1: of the JCPOA. It's just a page and a half
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  Speaker 1: a draft a basis for negotiation. There's a debate ongoing
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  Speaker 1: in Washington right now whether it needs ratifying by Congress.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think it does.
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  Speaker 3: It doesn't have to be ratified by Congress. The JCPOA
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  Speaker 3: was not. But if we want permanence, and the Uranians
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  Speaker 3: really want some permanence, then it has to get approval
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  Speaker 3: by Congress and President. And I think the document talks
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: about it being approved by the United Nations. Also