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The Favorites - Super Bowl Trends with Evan Abrams · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I'm in
0:17
Speaker 1: our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio.
0:20
Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my cost my companion, mikem
0:23
Speaker 1: Padre might be a FF professional vetter, Simon Hunter.
0:26
Speaker 2: Ed O Simon, and I am in my Tommy John studio.
0:29
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tommy John, my brother.
0:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, to see you one day closer. Today is a
0:36
Speaker 1: big episode. It's our super Bowl Trends episode with our
0:39
Speaker 1: favorite director of research and Favorites mainstay, the man who
0:45
Speaker 1: signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams. Will bring
0:50
Speaker 1: him on in a second. Next Tuesday, We've got Chris
0:53
Speaker 1: Raybond and Sean Cerner around to discuss their favorite props.
0:57
Speaker 1: And then Thursday, we will of course nailed and discuss
1:00
Speaker 1: our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who crushed it all
1:05
Speaker 1: season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network
1:07
Speaker 1: Pod with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets
1:10
Speaker 1: that I religiously made. We're gonna give it our Foxhole,
1:13
Speaker 1: our Tommy John big Balls Simon's Biggest Bets will play
1:17
Speaker 1: scoot Roulette all that jazz.
1:19
Speaker 3: The road to the super Bowl is long and pointless.
1:23
Speaker 3: I mean, when do you think about it? Football is
1:27
Speaker 3: so great, but now the two conference champs must survive
1:30
Speaker 3: a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys five weeks.
1:37
Speaker 2: Bronco Negersky didn't get no bye weeks and now he's dead.
1:41
Speaker 1: Well maybe they were a good thing for now, we
1:43
Speaker 1: got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the
1:46
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five and
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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls
2:28
Speaker 1: this week as well. We did a little bit of
2:29
Speaker 1: it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer
2:32
Speaker 1: to the game a week from today. First, let's bring
2:36
Speaker 1: in Evan Abrams.
2:38
Speaker 4: Director of research.
2:39
Speaker 1: He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that
2:42
Speaker 1: we rely on so much during the season. Evan is
2:45
Speaker 1: going to lay it out for us in one big palette.
2:50
Speaker 1: Let's go, brother, give me your first best trend.
2:56
Speaker 4: Well, first of all, Chad, Hi, how are you This?
3:00
Speaker 4: This one panders directly to you, though, So we started
3:04
Speaker 4: off with our biggest contract.
3:05
Speaker 1: Like, by the way, there's only one person who likes
3:07
Speaker 1: pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it
3:09
Speaker 1: a political show, but we all know who gets Well.
3:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're here to kind of teasey a little bit
3:14
Speaker 4: because this is the one you're going to You've been
3:16
Speaker 4: really looking for, so only betting the best teams is
3:19
Speaker 4: something you kind of talk about all the time this year,
3:22
Speaker 4: you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles,
3:24
Speaker 4: which is a ticket you had in the preseason them
3:27
Speaker 4: meeting in the Super Bowl. Yeah, but this is an
3:30
Speaker 4: interesting thing and I think it says a little bit
3:31
Speaker 4: more about the current state of the NFL. Let's call
3:34
Speaker 4: it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about
3:36
Speaker 4: taking the strategy of all twelve to one teams or
3:40
Speaker 4: shorter in terms of Super Bowl favorites and taking a
3:43
Speaker 4: round robin approach. So so I spoke with Matt and
3:46
Speaker 4: basically we dope and we dived into this. So I
3:49
Speaker 4: just want to start there and say, if you're feeling bold,
3:52
Speaker 4: and every August for the last ten years, you bet
3:55
Speaker 4: every single combination of teams at twelve to one or
3:57
Speaker 4: shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds
4:00
Speaker 4: combos in that span. It's won four times in sixty
4:05
Speaker 4: seven total combinations. Now, that would be this year's Chiefs
4:08
Speaker 4: and Eagles, Chiefs Niners, Chiefs, Bucks and Pats Rams. That's
4:13
Speaker 4: the four times it's hit Now of the sixty seven
4:15
Speaker 4: total combos, we've had four winners. So we've had sixty
4:18
Speaker 4: three losers at one unit per bet. The four winners
4:22
Speaker 4: paid about eighty four units minus to sixty three losers.
4:25
Speaker 4: You'd be up about twenty one units doing this round
4:28
Speaker 4: robin strategy last decade. Now, what if you weren't feeling
4:33
Speaker 4: so bold, what about just straight flat betting every twelve
4:37
Speaker 4: to one team or shorter. So over the last decade,
4:39
Speaker 4: that's fifty six total teams, so fifty six bets. It's
4:43
Speaker 4: won nine times, including this year, and it's lost forty
4:47
Speaker 4: seven times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight
4:51
Speaker 4: winners paid out sixty five units minus to forty seven
4:55
Speaker 4: losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up
4:58
Speaker 4: about eighteen units holding the Philly and KC tickets now
5:02
Speaker 4: for what it's worth as well. And this is just
5:04
Speaker 4: obviously more about the current state of the NFL twenty fourteen,
5:08
Speaker 4: which is one year back of this sample size. New
5:10
Speaker 4: England plus six fifty one at all, twenty thirteen, Seattle
5:14
Speaker 4: eight to one, one at all. Now, twenty twelve is
5:17
Speaker 4: where we get a string of long shots, starting with
5:19
Speaker 4: Baltimore who wanted eighteen to one. But basically since that
5:22
Speaker 4: twenty thirteen year, we have consistently seen the Brady's, the
5:26
Speaker 4: Mahomes and just the favorites every single year, Chad. So
5:30
Speaker 4: your strategy so far, so good?
5:33
Speaker 1: Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your
5:37
Speaker 1: strategy because I basically just did what you told me
5:42
Speaker 1: to do, because I believe the stat is And now
5:46
Speaker 1: it's eleven of the past twelve seasons the teams who
5:52
Speaker 1: had odds of twelve to one or less were in
5:57
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. They were the matchup.
6:00
Speaker 4: No, so it's the super Bowl champion. A bunch of
6:02
Speaker 4: those years you had the other team in the mix.
6:05
Speaker 4: So only four times last decade have both teams actually
6:10
Speaker 4: fit your trend where both were twelve to one or
6:12
Speaker 4: shorter in the Super Bowl odds and we basically had
6:16
Speaker 4: to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense because
6:19
Speaker 4: you're basically taking every team that's twelve to one or
6:22
Speaker 4: shorter to win the Super Bowl yep, and then you're
6:24
Speaker 4: taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting
6:27
Speaker 4: a ticket where yours was like twenty eight to one. Right, yes, yeah,
6:31
Speaker 4: so this one I believe was like twenty seven to
6:33
Speaker 4: one using these odds, but basically you'd be around those units.
6:36
Speaker 4: But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious what Simon thinks like
6:39
Speaker 4: because everyone loves these long shots and basically it hasn't
6:43
Speaker 4: hit up one year in the past twelve or thirteen
6:46
Speaker 4: years in the NFL, and this is a one game
6:48
Speaker 4: sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's
6:50
Speaker 4: it's to honestly a little bit crazy.
6:52
Speaker 1: Yeah.
6:53
Speaker 2: My view I think ivan to agree with this is
6:55
Speaker 2: I take long shots the hedge and I've missed the
6:58
Speaker 2: two best ones in the last four or five years.
7:00
Speaker 2: I missed on the Bengals one hundred and fifty to one,
7:03
Speaker 2: and I obviously missed on the Commanders this year. One
7:05
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty one. That's that's a position, right, that's
7:08
Speaker 2: where you want to go. You want to take those
7:10
Speaker 2: type of bets. You know, this a great one this
7:12
Speaker 2: upcoming year. I fucking hate us Chad for saying that.
7:15
Speaker 2: I guess who's one hundred and one right now or
7:17
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty to one, I should say Panthers.
7:19
Speaker 2: So you think they can make the next step they
7:22
Speaker 2: get the right guys, that's the type of team you
7:24
Speaker 2: gotta do. You got to you gotta do it on
7:25
Speaker 2: a team that no one believes in the Joe Burrow one.
7:28
Speaker 2: That was a flucush one, right, he's coming off a
7:30
Speaker 2: knee injury after his rookie year. The Commanders one, obviously
7:33
Speaker 2: no one saw coming, right. I didn't see too many
7:35
Speaker 2: people flashing their one hundred and fifty one tickets they had.
7:38
Speaker 2: I know that one guy had uh was at circle.
7:40
Speaker 2: I forget what book it was. It was basically bet
7:41
Speaker 2: two k to win five hundred k on the Commanders
7:44
Speaker 2: didn't come through. I'm sure that pro headed it out,
7:46
Speaker 2: but yeah, what happens telling you right now is the
7:50
Speaker 2: league has gotten not we want to say stale, but
7:53
Speaker 2: it kind of has. Right. It's the top dogs, and
7:55
Speaker 2: even coming this year, Chad was going through his list
7:58
Speaker 2: and I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that one, right.
8:00
Speaker 2: I remember saying the child was like, don't don't do Houston.
8:02
Speaker 2: Stay away from them, and I just don't think they
8:04
Speaker 2: have the pieces. And I think I also gave him
8:07
Speaker 2: bad advice too. I said I wouldn't do the Lions
8:09
Speaker 2: coming to this year. I thought there was too much
8:11
Speaker 2: bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the
8:13
Speaker 2: year before. The forty nine Ers got very lucky that
8:16
Speaker 2: one worked out because for a minute the midway through
8:17
Speaker 2: the season, I was like, I just cost Chad a
8:19
Speaker 2: ton of money. The Lions are a juggernaut. So I'm
8:22
Speaker 2: with you on that, Evan. I would love to hear
8:24
Speaker 2: what you have on Patrick. Mahomes actually gave out a
8:27
Speaker 2: trend I thought was a good one that I was
8:29
Speaker 2: wrong on my man. Evan helped me out. I thought
8:31
Speaker 2: Mahomes was fifty to zero on Dome games. He is
8:33
Speaker 2: fourteen oh one in Dome games. So still pre insane frience.
8:38
Speaker 2: I know we got we gotta be truth by they'll
8:40
Speaker 2: correct ourselves. Fourteen oh one Mahomes and Dome games in
8:43
Speaker 2: his career are pretty.
8:43
Speaker 4: Insane, absolutely insane, and yeah, let me these are the
8:47
Speaker 4: stats to me when you talk about Mahomes in the
8:49
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, they I was talking about this before we
8:52
Speaker 4: even went live here. They feel all made up like
8:55
Speaker 4: this Legit feels like you put that stat out there
8:57
Speaker 4: where someone's like twenty five and two and everyone you
9:00
Speaker 4: know thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So
9:02
Speaker 4: let me just kind of go through some of these.
9:04
Speaker 4: In January February, Mahomes has played eighteen games at home
9:08
Speaker 4: or on a neutral field, He's sixteen and two straight
9:11
Speaker 4: up his losses against Burrow and Brady. If you throw
9:15
Speaker 4: in November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.
9:20
Speaker 4: Just the playoffs, Mahomes has been an underdog or a
9:23
Speaker 4: favorite under a field goal eight times. He's eight and
9:25
Speaker 4: no straight up and ats in those games. Now, when
9:29
Speaker 4: you talk about on the field success and basically these
9:32
Speaker 4: games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit,
9:34
Speaker 4: Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime nine
9:37
Speaker 4: total playoff games. He's won six forced overtime in two
9:40
Speaker 4: of those games. Mahomes has played twenty games in the playoffs.
9:45
Speaker 4: He's seventeen and three straight up eighty five percent minimum
9:49
Speaker 4: ten games in the playoffs starts. That win percentage is
9:53
Speaker 4: second best since nineteen fifty behind just bart Starr, who
9:56
Speaker 4: is nine and one just ten playoff games.
9:58
Speaker 1: And I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I
10:01
Speaker 1: think Simon gave this out on Tuesday, bart Starr is
10:05
Speaker 1: the only quarterback to go three straight because remember he
10:09
Speaker 1: had an NFL championship and then they won those first
10:12
Speaker 1: two Super Bowls. So that's that's the company. He's keeping
10:16
Speaker 1: on that one.
10:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, just trophies, troph trophy names. At this point, it's
10:21
Speaker 4: ridiculous he's winning Hallis because you know he's meeting Alice.
10:25
Speaker 4: It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home.
10:28
Speaker 4: Mahomes have started twenty six games away from home as
10:31
Speaker 4: either an underdog or a favorite of three points or
10:34
Speaker 4: less twenty one four and one against a spread eighty
10:38
Speaker 4: four percent in those games. I'll say that one again
10:41
Speaker 4: because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, twenty
10:46
Speaker 4: six games away from home as an underdog or a
10:48
Speaker 4: favorite of three or less twenty one four and one
10:51
Speaker 4: eighty four percent.
10:52
Speaker 1: And then Christ Simon, we are just so setting ourselves
10:58
Speaker 1: up to be crushingly humiliated like they. You know, it's
11:04
Speaker 1: like we are not the people who lean into stats
11:12
Speaker 1: like these when it is the higher profile quarterback and
11:16
Speaker 1: the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are
11:19
Speaker 1: the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning in
11:22
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers, even when the Panthers haven't played in
11:26
Speaker 1: a month. Like the fact that we have invested the
11:29
Speaker 1: way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us
11:35
Speaker 1: up to be on the wrong side. I just got it.
11:39
Speaker 1: I have to say. I have to say that out loud.
11:42
Speaker 1: Do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you
11:44
Speaker 1: with me when you hear these things? Like when I
11:47
Speaker 1: hear these things, that makes me uncomfortable, doesn't make me
11:49
Speaker 1: feel better about my position.
11:52
Speaker 2: No, I only worry about you mushing regular season playoff.
11:55
Speaker 2: I don't think you can mush it. There's too much
11:56
Speaker 2: going on in the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no,
11:59
Speaker 2: we talked about, like Evan said on the top of
12:01
Speaker 2: the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk
12:03
Speaker 2: about homes because we've never seen it before. And it's
12:07
Speaker 2: what we keep talking about. The models don't get it right.
12:09
Speaker 2: Computer models can't get it because it's it doesn't sound
12:12
Speaker 2: real what he does. And it's the same thing with Brady,
12:14
Speaker 2: like you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent
12:16
Speaker 2: that just breaks all the rules, all the trends, and yeah,
12:20
Speaker 2: just hearing these numbers. Even like Evan, even though he
12:22
Speaker 2: told us these don't sound real but they're real, they
12:25
Speaker 2: still don't sound real, right. The fact that he is
12:27
Speaker 2: just reading off all these stats where it's twenty one
12:30
Speaker 2: and four, eight and oh, sixteen and two. It's like,
12:33
Speaker 2: holy shit, man, this kid is just so incredible. Twenty
12:36
Speaker 2: nine years old too, only twenty nine.
12:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, that one away from home is as an underdog,
12:44
Speaker 1: is ub sir.
12:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's agreed.
12:48
Speaker 4: He's the grim Reaper and everyone kind of talks about
12:50
Speaker 4: it in these situations. But when you're winning like that
12:52
Speaker 4: neutral and away, and you know, even his losses and
12:55
Speaker 4: it's weird you look at him most some of them
12:57
Speaker 4: are home, they're just eggs. Sometimes during the regular season,
13:00
Speaker 4: when he goes away from home, he becomes a killer.
13:05
Speaker 3: Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they
13:10
Speaker 3: have to do.
13:12
Speaker 4: And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told
13:14
Speaker 4: this to Simon and Okay, so he's five and zero
13:17
Speaker 4: neutral field, which we get, I mean the Super Bowls,
13:20
Speaker 4: plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing
13:24
Speaker 4: that's crazy about it is twenty eighteen. And this is
13:27
Speaker 4: the stat that kind of blows me away. So since
13:29
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, entering the fourth quarter overtime down one possession,
13:34
Speaker 4: one to eight points, Chiefs have had twelve drives. They've
13:37
Speaker 4: scored on eleven of them, eleven of twelve drives down
13:41
Speaker 4: one score, They've scored eleven times out of twelve drives
13:45
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen in the playoffs, all other teams are like
13:48
Speaker 4: five of eleven, three of nine, two of nine. I mean,
13:52
Speaker 4: he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous.
13:55
Speaker 4: So that's my Mahomes stat. That's why.
13:59
Speaker 1: That's why you with him, is because you have to
14:04
Speaker 1: because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time,
14:08
Speaker 1: announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At
14:12
Speaker 1: the end of the game, do you want to be
14:15
Speaker 1: on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes if he has
14:17
Speaker 1: the ball in his hand and they need to score
14:19
Speaker 1: to win. That's it. That's how you're betting this game,
14:23
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. It's just it is asurd.
14:28
Speaker 1: I can't say it enough.
14:29
Speaker 4: And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo.
14:32
Speaker 4: I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in
14:34
Speaker 4: that game, but in the end, I mean, he was
14:36
Speaker 4: stone cold. And the other one we can talk about
14:38
Speaker 4: with Mahomes but also has to do with Andy Reid
14:41
Speaker 4: is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy
14:43
Speaker 4: Reid is, but the combo together is actually pretty crazy,
14:46
Speaker 4: and it's another stat which just feels made up. But
14:49
Speaker 4: during the season, Mahomes has played thirty four games on
14:52
Speaker 4: extended rest since twenty nineteen, so that's basically eight days
14:56
Speaker 4: or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday.
14:58
Speaker 4: It would be more than that. He's one thirty of
15:00
Speaker 4: those thirty four games straight up. So thirty and four
15:05
Speaker 4: losses to Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O'Connell
15:08
Speaker 4: again one Jalen Hurts, which is funny, but thirty and
15:11
Speaker 4: four just absolutely stupid stuff.
15:14
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16:08
Speaker 5: That is, today's final warnings.
16:12
Speaker 1: Must be in today. All right, Evan, By the way,
16:16
Speaker 1: you have one job make me and Silent feel better,
16:19
Speaker 1: so don't make me feel bad.
16:21
Speaker 4: Well, okay, so some of this information. I'm just a
16:24
Speaker 4: man who delivers, all right. I don't fully love everything,
16:28
Speaker 4: but I think some of the numbers on some of
16:30
Speaker 4: these are interesting. So let's give you one trend and
16:33
Speaker 4: let's see your thoughts on it, because I think you
16:35
Speaker 4: and I, especially in all the shows that you and
16:37
Speaker 4: I have done together, sample size is something that's important
16:40
Speaker 4: of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles
16:42
Speaker 4: rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo.
16:47
Speaker 4: So the question is is there anything we can glean
16:49
Speaker 4: from that? So the Eagles scored fifty five points in
16:51
Speaker 4: the Conference championship, the most in that round in NFL history.
16:54
Speaker 4: Only two other teams have scored more than forty five
16:57
Speaker 4: points in a conference championship. Bills did it in ninety
16:59
Speaker 4: one and then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it
17:02
Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen, then also lost the Super Bowl. So
17:05
Speaker 4: ten total teams have scored forty plus points in a
17:08
Speaker 4: conference championship game. They're three and seven in the Super Bowl.
17:12
Speaker 4: So another one and I'll add on top of it,
17:15
Speaker 4: and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat
17:17
Speaker 4: the Commanders by thirty two points. Teams win by double
17:21
Speaker 4: digits in a conference championship round facing a team who
17:24
Speaker 4: did not three and six straight up and against the
17:26
Speaker 4: spread super Bowl since two thousand, failing to cover by
17:30
Speaker 4: nine point five points per game, which would tell you
17:32
Speaker 4: they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, which I
17:35
Speaker 4: could look back and look. But if you're winning by
17:37
Speaker 4: double digits and then you're an underdog in the game,
17:40
Speaker 4: that probably doesn't happen often, but to me, it does
17:42
Speaker 4: probably speak on a little bit of competition. So I'll
17:45
Speaker 4: get your thoughts on that and then we can kind
17:47
Speaker 4: of move on. But both both of those trends kind
17:49
Speaker 4: of telling you that the conference championship is a little
17:52
Speaker 4: bit of a hold on weight.
17:54
Speaker 1: Before you act quick, yeah, exc I mean you go ahead.
17:58
Speaker 2: I agree with it, Like just theve not knowing those trends,
18:01
Speaker 2: just the thinking of it. It's like, how often do
18:04
Speaker 2: we see a team play their best game of the
18:05
Speaker 2: year and then totally have a letdown the following game, Right,
18:08
Speaker 2: It's just every one game you go from everything is
18:11
Speaker 2: going perfectly the well, everything's moving smoothly, you're getting turnovers,
18:14
Speaker 2: you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals, and
18:17
Speaker 2: then the next week everything feels harder, right like it.
18:20
Speaker 2: You know, my buddy I went to the book with
18:23
Speaker 2: he was on Washington. He turns to me, after that
18:25
Speaker 2: first drive that Washington had, he said was exactly what
18:28
Speaker 2: Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much
18:30
Speaker 2: harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit.
18:33
Speaker 2: They did to earn every yard than it was against Detroit.
18:37
Speaker 2: And that's how football can be, right, do you have
18:38
Speaker 2: the right match with the right team, it can be easy,
18:41
Speaker 2: and once you get once, it feels easy and you
18:43
Speaker 2: have confidence. It's the opposite for the other team, right,
18:45
Speaker 2: they're losing a confidence and they see how hard it
18:47
Speaker 2: is to stop you. That's that's it to me. What
18:49
Speaker 2: really stands up there was the Eagles are coming off
18:52
Speaker 2: their easiest game in my opinion, I've ever seen them play, right,
18:55
Speaker 2: I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football hasn't easy.
18:59
Speaker 2: It's the most points scored in a conference championship game.
19:01
Speaker 2: So I think that's what Evan's kind of telling you people.
19:03
Speaker 2: It's like Eagles just have the best game of their life.
19:06
Speaker 2: You expect them to have a letdown game and then
19:08
Speaker 2: going to get some Mahomes team. They're just strays and arrow,
19:11
Speaker 2: same old Mahomes win and by three, close game and
19:15
Speaker 2: one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game, right,
19:18
Speaker 2: that was just another Mahomes India Reid game. So that's
19:21
Speaker 2: what I'm definitely taking away from what Evans telling us there.
19:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, I also take away from it. During the regular season,
19:29
Speaker 1: it's almost like an auto fade on the team that
19:32
Speaker 1: wins by you know, four plus touchdown, you immediately want
19:37
Speaker 1: to look in the other direction.
19:38
Speaker 2: Now, again to Evan, unless it's Detroit during the regular season.
19:41
Speaker 1: Right exactly to Evans point, Normally that team the next
19:45
Speaker 1: week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So
19:49
Speaker 1: there was a little bit of a difference here, But
19:51
Speaker 1: to me, it actually speaks to that there is an
19:57
Speaker 1: opportunity this team is at the top of the market.
20:00
Speaker 1: I wonder if this game opens with the Chiefs as
20:04
Speaker 1: even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two point favorites if
20:09
Speaker 1: the Eagles don't crush the Commanders the way they do,
20:12
Speaker 1: especially because the Commanders were the public side in that game,
20:16
Speaker 1: So the people who were betting on the Commanders are
20:18
Speaker 1: going to see the Eagles as being even better then
20:21
Speaker 1: they might have believed they were. That you know, you
20:24
Speaker 1: might even be getting half a point of value from
20:26
Speaker 1: a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now.
20:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, speaking of the Eagles, do you have any trends
20:31
Speaker 2: about them after the buye week of Oh?
20:33
Speaker 4: Man, So this one's just strange, and I think a
20:36
Speaker 4: little bit of momentum has something to do with this one.
20:38
Speaker 4: But let me lay it out. So, the Chiefs had
20:41
Speaker 4: a bye week entering the playoffs, the Eagles didn't play
20:43
Speaker 4: in the wildcard round. How much impact has the buye
20:46
Speaker 4: been even this late into the playoffs entering the Super
20:49
Speaker 4: Bowl and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already.
20:52
Speaker 4: In the Super Bowl era, teams that had a buy
20:54
Speaker 4: entering the playoffs facing a team who did play in
20:57
Speaker 4: the wildcard game or who did not have a by
21:00
Speaker 4: four and twelve straight up two thirteen and one against
21:03
Speaker 4: the spread, which would be very, very bad for the
21:06
Speaker 4: bye week Chiefs in that situation. I think the thing
21:10
Speaker 4: you can only really glean from this is that, like
21:13
Speaker 4: taking that buy doesn't give you as much momentum, because
21:17
Speaker 4: we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot,
21:20
Speaker 4: but to me, this one just feels like some weird noise.
21:22
Speaker 4: I don't know what to make of.
21:23
Speaker 1: It feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't
21:27
Speaker 1: be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two
21:29
Speaker 1: weeks of rest and yeah, you know, I don't know.
21:34
Speaker 1: It's not a huge sample set, but it's the only one.
21:37
Speaker 1: It's the only one that we have. I don't know
21:40
Speaker 1: that the next twenty six times this happens, it won't
21:44
Speaker 1: be flipped.
21:45
Speaker 4: Yeah.
21:46
Speaker 2: Back to make sense of it, and my view of
21:47
Speaker 2: it is football is all about rhythm and timing. So
21:52
Speaker 2: the Chiefs here have played what two games are their
21:55
Speaker 2: starter is now going to be for a month and
21:56
Speaker 2: a half. Yeah yeah, so that to me that does
21:59
Speaker 2: add up to a or you know, that is a
22:01
Speaker 2: big deal that you have a week off play two
22:03
Speaker 2: games and you have another week off, so that that
22:06
Speaker 2: definitely is gonna be a part of it.
22:07
Speaker 4: Right.
22:07
Speaker 2: The team's just not in a rhythm, not in sync.
22:09
Speaker 2: But what Chad just mentioned here is, you know, Mahomes,
22:13
Speaker 2: they're always in rhythm, right. It just when you watch
22:15
Speaker 2: him play, even last year against the forty nine ers,
22:18
Speaker 2: he was in a rhythm for that whole first half.
22:20
Speaker 2: Once he got a rhythm in that game, it totally
22:23
Speaker 2: flipped the switch. Once he gets going. I don't think
22:25
Speaker 2: they punted the rest of the game right once he
22:27
Speaker 2: got going against the foreigners defense. So that that to me,
22:29
Speaker 2: if that makes sense when you break it down like that,
22:32
Speaker 2: then yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not,
22:34
Speaker 2: you know, not not ready for that game speed because
22:37
Speaker 2: they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed.
22:42
Speaker 2: But we talk all the time, Mahomes. If anyone's gonna
22:45
Speaker 2: go against that trend, it's it's he's definitely got it
22:47
Speaker 2: back in that spot.
22:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, that that one feels sorry, That one feels I
22:54
Speaker 1: don't know. I'm not buying it, and I'm not buying
22:56
Speaker 1: it because I I don't want to buy it, Like
22:58
Speaker 1: I don't I don't I want the confirmation and buy us.
23:00
Speaker 1: I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet,
23:03
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like we know enough.
23:05
Speaker 4: Yeah, the four and twelve throws me off. The two
23:06
Speaker 4: thirteen and one could have been something to do with
23:08
Speaker 4: the points spread, but four and twelve kind of confirms
23:10
Speaker 4: it's not so little noisy for me. Don't know what
23:13
Speaker 4: to make of.
23:13
Speaker 1: It, Simon. As you may remember, back in nineteen ninety three,
23:19
Speaker 1: the most indelible image of Super Bowl twenty seven was camptured.
23:23
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Speaker 1: Leon Lett picked up a fumble and began to run,
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23:43
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23:47
Speaker 1: a touchback. Some claim it was Leon's showboting near the
23:52
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23:54
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23:58
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24:55
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell huzzah. They're just they get better everyone. They're
25:01
Speaker 1: little short story gems.
25:03
Speaker 2: Never know where you're going with them, never.
25:05
Speaker 1: Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm
25:09
Speaker 1: going with them either. I am finding it out as
25:11
Speaker 1: I read it. Literally, I don't know what's going to
25:14
Speaker 1: happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell.
25:17
Speaker 1: He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of powerhouse, Evan, tell
25:24
Speaker 1: me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles, who's
25:28
Speaker 1: keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night with Fangio.
25:33
Speaker 4: And you're right, Matt is a wordsmith, so you gotta
25:35
Speaker 4: give him Matt. But talking about Fangio for a second here,
25:38
Speaker 4: I think this is a just there's a bunch of
25:40
Speaker 4: different ways to look at this. So obviously defensive coordinator Eagles,
25:44
Speaker 4: but in this situation facing Mahomes, He's done that eight
25:47
Speaker 4: times in his career. So he did it six times
25:49
Speaker 4: with the Broncos, he did it twice with the Dolphins.
25:53
Speaker 4: Now Mahomes is eight to no in those games straight up,
25:57
Speaker 4: six and two against the spread. Mahomes as ten touchdowns,
26:01
Speaker 4: two picks, sixty four percent completion percentage. Feels a little
26:05
Speaker 4: low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms
26:07
Speaker 4: of the ten touchdowns in just eight games. But I
26:10
Speaker 4: kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one
26:11
Speaker 4: because I think this story is going to be out
26:13
Speaker 4: there a lot. So two of his lowest ten passing
26:15
Speaker 4: yard games in the regular season have come versus Fangio. Granted,
26:19
Speaker 4: Denver's offense scored fifteen points in those two games, so
26:23
Speaker 4: didn't really put up too much of a fight passing
26:26
Speaker 4: yards after catch, which important. This game first and fourth
26:31
Speaker 4: lowest career for ma Homes in regular season against that
26:35
Speaker 4: Fangio defense. In those eight games, bad throw percentage, so
26:40
Speaker 4: that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt.
26:44
Speaker 4: He's had twenty one games at twenty three percent or
26:46
Speaker 4: higher three versus Fangio. Of twenty negative EPA games in
26:52
Speaker 4: his career, two have come versus Fangio defenses, and also
26:56
Speaker 4: two of his top ten worst EPA games versus Fangio defense.
27:01
Speaker 4: Six of eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes had twenty percent
27:04
Speaker 4: pressure percentage, which is the times pressured per dropback. So
27:09
Speaker 4: I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton of games.
27:13
Speaker 4: I think the eight and no makes sense. I think
27:14
Speaker 4: the six and two makes sense. He's putting up some points,
27:17
Speaker 4: but overall, I think last time they met against Miami,
27:21
Speaker 4: he gave him a bunch of cover zero, which screwed
27:24
Speaker 4: with him a little bit. I think he's going to
27:26
Speaker 4: give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games.
27:29
Speaker 4: I think the data is actually a bit of a Yeah,
27:31
Speaker 4: you'll see the eight and no, but I think there's
27:33
Speaker 4: a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I've
27:36
Speaker 4: looked at going through it. Not that I take from it,
27:39
Speaker 4: thank you.
27:39
Speaker 2: I needed to hear that because I was dived into
27:41
Speaker 2: the ice. When I saw that as numbers you had,
27:43
Speaker 2: I was like, oh my god, is this a bad
27:45
Speaker 2: magic Because when I on paper what you just said,
27:47
Speaker 2: it makes sense to me where it's like, this should
27:49
Speaker 2: be the perfect defense for Mahomes. You're only rushing four
27:52
Speaker 2: and you're giving them exotic looks, which's that's the only
27:55
Speaker 2: way to beat this guy, right. If you don't have
27:57
Speaker 2: a Max Crosby on your team, you know, you need
28:00
Speaker 2: have a really strong front four because we've seen that
28:03
Speaker 2: even the Raiders when they beat them, that's why they
28:05
Speaker 2: beat them, right, their front four gets pressure. So that's
28:07
Speaker 2: what the Eagles need to do here. And you know,
28:09
Speaker 2: that really backs up what I thought coming into this.
28:11
Speaker 2: And you know, let's let's think about this for a second.
28:15
Speaker 2: If this is the only way to beat them, I
28:17
Speaker 2: need those numbers to come true what you just said
28:19
Speaker 2: of it, I need Mahomes to have a bad game.
28:21
Speaker 2: You basically need the offensive the Eagles to show up.
28:24
Speaker 2: If they can basically put up Well, we just talked
28:26
Speaker 2: about over fifteen, sixteen, seventeen points. You know, if they
28:29
Speaker 2: get in the twenty point range, twenty five points, there
28:32
Speaker 2: is a chance they could beat this team because Mahomes.
28:35
Speaker 2: Like I said, coming into this, I thought this would
28:37
Speaker 2: be an undergame because I just can't see Mahomes putting
28:39
Speaker 2: up thirty points in back to back weeks like I
28:41
Speaker 2: thought last week. You know, we've talked coming into this,
28:44
Speaker 2: we thought the Bills had a weak defense. Right, They've
28:47
Speaker 2: had injuries. We know they had seventy million dead caps,
28:50
Speaker 2: so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a
28:52
Speaker 2: lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense
28:54
Speaker 2: that Mahomes put up thirty two, his highest scoring game
28:57
Speaker 2: the whole year. You're giving me some confidence of it.
28:59
Speaker 2: I need to hear that from Vic because I was.
29:01
Speaker 2: I was worried when I saw that trend that he
29:03
Speaker 2: was eight to zero against Fangs defenses.
29:06
Speaker 1: So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to
29:09
Speaker 1: know how often these games were played on extra rest
29:15
Speaker 1: or off of a bye, because I do think we've
29:19
Speaker 1: seen through your stats and through the years, no one
29:22
Speaker 1: is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid.
29:27
Speaker 2: Right, Well, we said it was divisional. He said it
29:28
Speaker 2: was Denvers that you can count it as a bid
29:30
Speaker 2: chat just because that means they prep in the offseason
29:33
Speaker 2: for that defense, which I agree with you. It's like
29:36
Speaker 2: you could throw that into it. But that, to me
29:37
Speaker 2: is pretty interesting that he was like they had time
29:40
Speaker 2: to prep against it, and Fangs defense was still pretty
29:43
Speaker 2: damn good for being on not that great of a
29:45
Speaker 2: Denver defense.
29:46
Speaker 1: See, well, now I was starting to rationalize why I
29:48
Speaker 1: could feel good and now I feel bad again. Shit,
29:52
Speaker 1: maybe go ahead.
29:54
Speaker 4: The one I did look up because I felt like
29:56
Speaker 4: the other part of this forgetting Fangio for a second,
30:00
Speaker 4: I wanted to look at because the Eagles pass defense
30:02
Speaker 4: has been something we've been discussing all year and it's
30:04
Speaker 4: kind of everywhere. So and this helps your Mahomes case
30:08
Speaker 4: on one angle, but Mahomes versus pass defense is two
30:12
Speaker 4: hundred yards allowed or less. Pass defense. He's twenty three
30:16
Speaker 4: and three in his career, twelve straight wins. His last
30:19
Speaker 4: loss was October twenty twenty two against Buffalo. In November
30:23
Speaker 4: or later, He's twelve and oh straight up career. So
30:26
Speaker 4: the great pass defense thing and yeah, he's twelve and
30:29
Speaker 4: oh in every stat I'm going to give. But the
30:31
Speaker 4: fact that the two hundred yards are less on pass
30:34
Speaker 4: defense and the twelve and oh and twelve and oh
30:36
Speaker 4: later November tells me it's a mature pass defense, right, Like,
30:40
Speaker 4: this isn't a September pass defense that's played three games.
30:43
Speaker 4: I mean, this is a defense that's been a few
30:45
Speaker 4: games into the season and feels the stat more heavy
30:48
Speaker 4: to me, so absurd.
30:51
Speaker 1: But well, the other thing I was going to say,
30:52
Speaker 1: and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning,
30:56
Speaker 1: which might lead to us liking Doctor Nicks past Patrick
31:01
Speaker 1: Mahomes under thirty six and a half pass attempts even more.
31:04
Speaker 1: But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon,
31:09
Speaker 1: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust
31:12
Speaker 1: in game. There's just nobody better at it, right. They
31:15
Speaker 1: can see it and like do it series to series,
31:18
Speaker 1: almost play to play because they're so in tune and
31:22
Speaker 1: so good at figuring out what the other team is
31:24
Speaker 1: doing and how to master the opposition. It's look, it's
31:29
Speaker 1: a great defense. There's there's no rationalizing that it will
31:33
Speaker 1: be giving everyone fits but it's what makes it so
31:36
Speaker 1: much more interesting, right.
31:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, it makes me think too of Josh Allen, Like
31:39
Speaker 2: I haven't had some amazing stats. When Josh Allen plays
31:41
Speaker 2: really good defenses, his game gets even better. He's even better.
31:45
Speaker 2: And same goes for Mahomes. It's just two absolute unicorns
31:48
Speaker 2: in the sport where you know, most normal guys are
31:50
Speaker 2: going to struggle against great defenses, but not these guys.
31:53
Speaker 2: And I would love if we could play around and
31:56
Speaker 2: remember these guys.
31:58
Speaker 4: This is I mean a guy who was born in
32:01
Speaker 4: the late eighties. I like sitting down and just naming
32:04
Speaker 4: old players. It's what I do for a living.
32:06
Speaker 2: It's my most eighty nine December eighty seven.
32:10
Speaker 4: Eighty seven. I'm in the middle there. I'm in the
32:12
Speaker 4: middle there. But basically, I was trying to do some
32:15
Speaker 4: research on Saquon Barkley and like how someone like that,
32:19
Speaker 4: based off of his season, could possibly do in a
32:22
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, or how many guys to put up his
32:24
Speaker 4: numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are
32:26
Speaker 4: the eleventh team to enter a Super Bowl with a
32:28
Speaker 4: fifteen one hundred plus yard regular season rusher and actually
32:33
Speaker 4: the first since Shawn Alexander in two thousand and five
32:35
Speaker 4: and Corey Dillon in two thousand and four, So those
32:37
Speaker 4: teams with those fifteen hundred yard rushers are actually eight
32:41
Speaker 4: and two in the Super Bowl. The two losses are
32:43
Speaker 4: Sean Alexander in five, Jamal Anderson nineteen ninety eight, Siriani
32:49
Speaker 4: And the thing that I thought was interesting of those
32:52
Speaker 4: ten teams is they're adding a rusher like Saquon Barkley,
32:58
Speaker 4: but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So
33:01
Speaker 4: what I looked at was Sirianni and Hertz have been
33:03
Speaker 4: there and they added Barkley. How many times of those
33:06
Speaker 4: ten rushers before Barkley did they have a coaching quarterback
33:10
Speaker 4: with Super Bowl experience? So two thousand and four, Corey Dillon,
33:14
Speaker 4: they had been there. It was Belichick and Brady. Two
33:16
Speaker 4: thousand and four they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen ninety eight,
33:19
Speaker 4: it was Shanahan and Lway. They had Terrell Davis they
33:22
Speaker 4: won the year prior they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen
33:25
Speaker 4: eighty eight, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh on Montana.
33:29
Speaker 4: They had both won twice prior to that. They also
33:32
Speaker 4: won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been
33:35
Speaker 4: there with that Rusher actually three to zero. Now they're
33:38
Speaker 4: eight and two overall, So I'm not telling you something crazy,
33:41
Speaker 4: but I was trying to come up with some sort
33:43
Speaker 4: of comp for just we've been here before, we've gone
33:46
Speaker 4: through the prep. Plus we also have this guy who's
33:48
Speaker 4: having an outstanding season tends to turn out pretty well
33:52
Speaker 4: in that spot. So that's the way I kind of
33:54
Speaker 4: looked at it and trying to calculate how this team
33:59
Speaker 4: adding this player who's been there would do very very
34:02
Speaker 4: small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing
34:06
Speaker 4: is Saquan's prop, right, which is like one twelve, one
34:09
Speaker 4: fourteen or so. This week, the question is is we
34:11
Speaker 4: haven't seen someone run for one hundred and twenty yards
34:14
Speaker 4: in a Super Bowl since Michael Pittman in two thousand
34:16
Speaker 4: and three. So I mean, either way getting to that
34:19
Speaker 4: number or higher is you know, it's Terrell Davis territory
34:23
Speaker 4: in ninety eight. So I guess we're.
34:24
Speaker 1: Gonna have to see how that's how long it's been
34:26
Speaker 1: since a guy ran for that many yards. Yeah, I remember,
34:30
Speaker 1: you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember
34:33
Speaker 1: that Super Bowls used to be dominated by running backs.
34:37
Speaker 1: I know, before your time in the early eighties. We're
34:39
Speaker 1: talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen. Those were the freaking days.
34:45
Speaker 1: And now you're telling me it's twenty two years since
34:48
Speaker 1: a running back ran for one hundred and twenty yards.
34:50
Speaker 1: That is something.
34:53
Speaker 2: It is, But it doesn't make sense too though, because
34:54
Speaker 2: you think most teams are going to have a dominant,
34:57
Speaker 2: great running back, probably gonna have a back quarter right
35:00
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry, he's with Tannehill. I mean CJ.
35:04
Speaker 4: Twok.
35:04
Speaker 2: That Tennessee team they had nothing. I mean that Tennessee
35:07
Speaker 2: team had nothing. Agrian Peterson go back and look through
35:10
Speaker 2: his career, all those incredible running seasons, he just never
35:12
Speaker 2: had a quarterback. So we don't want to blame the
35:15
Speaker 2: running backs here. Even Marshawn Lynch right those incredible years,
35:18
Speaker 2: there were still a pass happy offense, right with Russ,
35:20
Speaker 2: So it does make sense you dive into it. We're right.
35:23
Speaker 2: This is shows what kind of unicorn situation. It says,
35:26
Speaker 2: where you have the best offensive line, the best running back,
35:30
Speaker 2: and then a quarterback that's above average. So I definitely
35:34
Speaker 2: makes sense you dive into it. We joked that you know,
35:37
Speaker 2: the running backs have had a rebirth these last couple
35:39
Speaker 2: of years like they were dead right. The twenty tens
35:42
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty, the running back position just felt like
35:46
Speaker 2: it was nothing, getting no money, no respect. Now it's
35:49
Speaker 2: definitely going the other way, right that extra cap money.
35:51
Speaker 2: Teams are using it on these legit running backs, And
35:53
Speaker 2: we saw it this year Derrick Henry Saquon major major
35:57
Speaker 2: differences to the teams they.
35:58
Speaker 1: Joined, Joe Shine and the New York Giants. Those clips
36:04
Speaker 1: of him hearing from that one slowly scout assistant whatever
36:14
Speaker 1: in his office saying are we sure no one's gonna
36:17
Speaker 1: pay Sequon and everyone being like, noah, no one's gonna
36:20
Speaker 1: pay him, and then him having the painful conversation with
36:23
Speaker 1: Saquon that they're gonna let him test the market, like,
36:27
Speaker 1: oh my god, it's it's it's excreased.
36:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, not even that his daughter told him, our daughter
36:33
Speaker 4: or son told him to Jadon Daniels, Oh that's right,
36:35
Speaker 4: that's right.
36:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was once in your lifetime. Why don't you
36:39
Speaker 2: go get the best player. It's like, holy shit, this
36:41
Speaker 2: kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football.
36:45
Speaker 1: Got out think it. That's amazing. Want to make extra
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Speaker 1: dot bet all right, Evan. It's called the most efficient
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Speaker 1: market of the year for a reason.
37:57
Speaker 4: Explain unbelievable and totals almost dead even in the Super Bowl.
38:02
Speaker 4: It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever. Fifty
38:05
Speaker 4: eight total super bowls a date favorites twenty seven to
38:08
Speaker 4: twenty nine and two against the spread. There was no
38:11
Speaker 4: total in Super Bowl one. I can make one up,
38:13
Speaker 4: but I'm not going to. Since then, overs twenty eight,
38:17
Speaker 4: twenty eight and one absolutely dead even in Super Bowl history.
38:22
Speaker 4: In the last twenty one games, the over is ten
38:24
Speaker 4: and eleven. Can't get much more efficient than that, And
38:28
Speaker 4: the public opinion really is no help sides getting the
38:30
Speaker 4: majority of tickets eleven and ten straight up in ATS
38:33
Speaker 4: and the Super Bowl since two thousand and four. In
38:36
Speaker 4: the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side
38:39
Speaker 4: he won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago.
38:42
Speaker 4: But truthfully, itch is dead even It's the craziest thing.
38:46
Speaker 4: Talk about the most efficient market ever.
38:48
Speaker 1: All Right, last one before we get out of here.
38:51
Speaker 1: We do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend
38:56
Speaker 1: for the Eagles and the Chiefs.
38:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, fifth coaching match in Super Bowl history, all time
39:02
Speaker 4: head coach who won the first meeting straight up won
39:04
Speaker 4: the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously, we just
39:08
Speaker 4: did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done
39:10
Speaker 4: with Kauflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy. Sorry,
39:14
Speaker 4: Matt Mitchell and Chuck Noll and Tom Landry. And the
39:18
Speaker 4: craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles marks just the second time
39:21
Speaker 4: in NFL history same teams have met in the Super
39:23
Speaker 4: Bowl in a three year twice in a three year stretch,
39:25
Speaker 4: Bill's and Cowboys ninety two to ninety three. So, you know,
39:29
Speaker 4: quick rematched here, I think is really fun because we
39:32
Speaker 4: just saw this, we add a few you know, ingredients
39:34
Speaker 4: to the pie. We kind of go from there.
39:36
Speaker 1: How does it make you feel, Simon?
39:39
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me
39:43
Speaker 2: the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different
39:45
Speaker 2: than they were the first time around. You go back
39:47
Speaker 2: and look, you know, the Eagles leading rusher with Jalen
39:50
Speaker 2: Hurts with seventy yards, they're given the ball to Miles Sanders.
39:53
Speaker 2: Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line, and
39:56
Speaker 2: we have Saguon Barkley. So it is interesting going back.
40:00
Speaker 2: I mean I painfully had to do it yesterday. I
40:02
Speaker 2: had to go back and watch that game, that Super Bowl.
40:05
Speaker 2: I did not watch the final two minutes. I already
40:06
Speaker 2: know what happens, but just rewatching it, you know, obviously
40:11
Speaker 2: the defense is totally different. Now, like it's really noticeable
40:14
Speaker 2: how different the style is compared to Gannon and this
40:16
Speaker 2: Fangs defense, where it was basically just being very careful,
40:20
Speaker 2: very soft, playing zone the entire game, where this new
40:23
Speaker 2: Eagles team super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play man.
40:27
Speaker 2: And yeah, obviously when you break it down the coaching mismatch,
40:31
Speaker 2: me and Chatter gave our opinion. We think the Chiefs
40:33
Speaker 2: have a huge advantage and Andy Reid and spag So yeah,
40:36
Speaker 2: it doesn't doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches,
40:40
Speaker 2: you know, especially the Kaflin one. Note he had the
40:43
Speaker 2: Patriots number, like he had the secret sauce right, that
40:45
Speaker 2: the four rushers, smart with the ball on all offense,
40:49
Speaker 2: very boring football. It worked like that style that Giants played.
40:52
Speaker 2: It was the perfect match for that that Patriots team.
40:55
Speaker 2: And I mean it is crazy. I think they lost
40:58
Speaker 2: three super Bowls and two of them to a Giants
41:00
Speaker 2: team that were what a wildcard team of So yeah,
41:03
Speaker 2: it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that,
41:06
Speaker 2: and like Evma said, since what twenty twelve, So once again,
41:10
Speaker 2: it's been pretty pretty born one and two seeds every year.
41:12
Speaker 2: Pretty much true story.
41:15
Speaker 1: I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I
41:19
Speaker 1: don't think I ever told Matt Mitchell this at the
41:21
Speaker 1: Super Bowl one year after he had retired. When I
41:24
Speaker 1: was at Sports Illustrated, I fact checked. It was my
41:27
Speaker 1: first job at SI, fact checked a story about Marv Levy.
41:31
Speaker 1: I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero mentor IDOL,
41:35
Speaker 1: wrote the story. Then I had to as a fact checker.
41:38
Speaker 1: You got to call the subject and basically check every
41:42
Speaker 1: fact in the story, sometimes really intimate details. And so
41:46
Speaker 1: I had that conversation with Marv Levy and we were
41:49
Speaker 1: both going to be at the super Bowl forget where
41:52
Speaker 1: it was. The Bills weren't in it, and me and
41:55
Speaker 1: him and his wife had a drink and it was lovely.
41:58
Speaker 1: Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Now, Michelle, you happy
42:01
Speaker 1: I told that story.
42:03
Speaker 5: Harvard Master's degree holder, Marv Levy, one of America's greatest
42:08
Speaker 5: treasures and who will be one hundred years old during
42:13
Speaker 5: WOW the end of training camp this year. Marv, if
42:15
Speaker 5: you're listing, you're a national treasurer.
42:17
Speaker 1: I love you, class act all the way.
42:20
Speaker 5: No place else should rather be this right here, right
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Speaker 5: when it's too tough for them it's.
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Speaker 1: and I We'll return with our next episode of The
43:08
Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, one thirty
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