Latest / Pod Save America / Rahm Emanuel is Not NOT Running for President

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Rahm Emanuel is Not NOT Running for President · Pod Save America

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• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Tommy Vitor. I just
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: wrapped up my conversation with Rahm Emanuel, who is Obama's
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: chief of staff. He was the mayor of Chicago. He
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: was a member of Congress for several years, and he
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: was just the ambassador to Japan for Joe Biden. He
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: seems like he's running for president. I asked him about
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: whether he's running for president. You'll hear his answer. It's
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: a little noncommittal, but the vibe suggests he is. We
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: had a ranging conversation. We talked about why he thinks
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party lost in 2024, how we can fix
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: our brand and put forward a platform that actually wins
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: back the voters we lost to Donald Trump. We also
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: geeked out on some foreign policy. We talked about how
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Democrats should adjust their policy towards Israel in the wake
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: of the war in Gaza. whether it was right for
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration to bomb Iran. We talked about China.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: We talked about Rahm's time as ambassador to Japan. And
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: then how, with the benefit of hindsight, he views some
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: of the more controversial kind of Obama-era counterterrorism policies like drones.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It was fun to talk to Rahm. It was fun
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: to mix it up. We had to agree to disagree
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: at a bunch of different points, but I think you
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: will find it interesting. And he certainly has a vision
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and view for where the party should go. And he
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: is hitting the road now. to make that known. And
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: I think you'll enjoy it. So without further ado, here's
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Rahm Emanuel. Rahm Emanuel, great to see you.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: Nice to see you.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: First question.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: You haven't aged a bit.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I'm trying. Is me interviewing you as weird for you
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: as it is for me?
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: It's a little out of body experience that I have
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: to be nice at this point. Yeah.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I'm used to staffing you, maybe scurrying away, hiding in
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the back of the meeting.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Let's just say this, to prepare for this, I had
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: to do About two hours of meditation. Good.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: I hope it was mindful. All right. So the Atlantic
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: recently ran a big profile of you by a great reporter,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Ashley Parker. The headline was Rahm Emanuel dot, dot, dot
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: for president question mark. That's a question a lot of
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: people are asking. Are you running for president?
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: I haven't decided. I'm out talking to people, hearing what
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: they have to say, giving some of my ideas on
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: a couple subjects as like I recently announced. that I
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: think we should follow Australia and ban social media apps
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: for kids 16 and younger. And I think it's, you know,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: you're either, when it comes to adolescence, going to have
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: an adult raise a child or you're going to have
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: an algorithm. And right now the algorithms are winning and
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: parents feel hopeless, helpless in this case. And that has
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: struck a nerve. I have talked about, which is something
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: I care about, and you know this from when I
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: ran for mayor, the reason is we have two-thirds of
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: our kids or 50% of our kids are not reading
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: and doing math at grade level, lowest in 30 years.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: You know more about the president's position on windmills than
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: you know what he wants to do to fix that.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: And you haven't heard from any governor about calling an
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: emergency meeting. I've laid out a case of what K
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: through eight should be. Get back to the fundamentals on
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: reading and math, an hour and 15 minutes on the topics,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: the type of support, but fundamentally reform high school. We
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: in Chicago did get a B average, first city, free
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: community college. You earn it with a B average. Second,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: bring college classes into high school So kids through dual credit,
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: dual enrollment, advanced placement, international baccalaureate, 50% of the kids
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: in Chicago are graduating with college credit. And then third,
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: you can't earn your high school degree without showing a
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: letter of acceptance on college, community college, or branch of
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: the armed forces, or a vocational ed. Every child will
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: not just walk, but they'll tell you where they're walking to.
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: And we got 98% compliance in Chicago. But we have
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: to fundamentally... change our education, both reading and math and
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: what high school is about so we can give everybody
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: a shot at the future. And then the most important
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: is in making the American dream more affordable and accessible.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: And as I talk about this, if people react the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: way I think they're reacting to date and everybody's nice
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: right now, but the rubber hasn't really met the road,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: then I'll do it. If I have something to say
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: that in a way to say it, that I think, uh,
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: Strikes a chord that I think not only with the public,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: but I think addresses what I think of the challenges.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: And I want to talk about later on, having been
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: away from the United States for three years, I learned
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: a lot about seeing America from a distance that I
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: couldn't see right here in the arena. I'll do it.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: The 2006 Obama kind of book tour. vibe check campaign
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  Speaker 1: swing that I think ultimately got him.
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  Speaker 2: Some of us were winning the house back.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: You were very busy.
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  Speaker 2: Some of us didn't have time to read that book.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, pushing around stories about Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Deep cuts for the nerds out there. Okay, speaking of
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: presidential campaigns, the DNC has been working on this autopsy
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: report about what happened in 2024. Apparently they're going to
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: spike that thing and never release it. Curious what you
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: think about that, but more importantly, why do you think
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: we lost in 2024?
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: First, to the first part, I'm kind of like the
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: middle child, so I'll give a there's kind of two
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: camps here. Let me give you a two and a
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: half camp here. I wouldn't release it now because right
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: now you have the Republicans on the run on healthcare
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: and I wouldn't divert that. We kicked their butts down
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  Speaker 2: in Miami. It was a mayor's race. I was there
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: and the Republicans are flipped out. I wouldn't change the story.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I do think the report has to be public because
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I think the only way to get right in 2028
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: is to understand what went wrong in 2024. Those of
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: us like you and I who are addicts about this
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: and want to know the information and I think it's important,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: put it out kind of on the slow area, end
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  Speaker 2: of the year. Those of us who care will read
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  Speaker 2: it and digest it. But right now, the Republicans are
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: scurrying out of Washington hoping nobody noticed that in a
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: period of the fact that people are worried about health
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: care costs, theirs are going to jack up 20%. Why
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: would you want to change that narrative? So you're saying
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: like punt it a little bit. But don't kill it.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't even punt it. I would like do an
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: onside kick.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: No, but I would move it.
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  Speaker 1: New Year's Day release.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: And you and I and others will read it and
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: understand it and we'll grapple with it. But right now,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: I don't want to take the spotlight off the Republicans.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: So I'm kind of of, it's not an either or choice.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: It's a when choice. That's kind of where I'm at. Okay.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: And my thing is with the Republicans running in the
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: darker night out of Washington, nail them and don't change it.
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  Speaker 2: Make sure that by the time they come home and
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: do a couple of town halls, all they get is healthcare. Yeah.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: Now, number two, in 2024, this is where I'm hoping
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: the meditation kicks in.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: So I calm down.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: We'll evaluate whether I really did my Zen.
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  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: So I, I have kind of three things that I
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: think you have to evaluate. And I do think contrary
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: to CW, that 2024 was winnable, even with a 70%,
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: The country's on the wrong track. Not a good candidate,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: not a good campaign, and clearly not a good message.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: You're talking pre or post Biden?
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about, well, post.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: Kamala Harris gets the nomination. Biden-Harris is down eight. Within
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: a week, because she is change, she goes plus three.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: And she runs on change and focused on, and her
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: best testing ad is about Housing and affordability, etc. All
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: the way through, call it the debate. All the high points, convention, debate,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: she wins. And also kind of getting the baton and
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: making it her own. Somewhere afterwards, they go from the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: economy and change, as she is different than Biden and Trump,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: with a campaign based on democracy as on.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: The ballot, etc.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: to being Biden's continuity in his message. And she goes
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: from plus three to minus one and a half. Unbelievably,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: when I find the person that decided it wasn't the
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: economy in change and wanted to go with continuity in Biden,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I'm going to kill him.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Wasn't it Joe Biden? I mean, he apparently was like
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: calling her saying, no daylight, kid.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but here's my view. You're your own person. Right.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: And you pay for all this. You spent $ 3 billion.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: He didn't tell you to run on his message.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: That's one.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Two, I think, in a core message, and I think
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: this for the party. Now, you and I worked together, obviously,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: with President Obama. I worked also with President Clinton.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: All three, and this is something the party has to
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: learn for 2028. The three most successful electoral Democrats had
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: to cross a cultural land to get heard on economics.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: They had to ground themselves in what I call middle-class values.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: We shortchange it for President Clinton on Sister Soulja. President
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Obama talks about parenting and fatherhood and then deals with
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: his own pastor, right? President Kennedy goes down to Texas
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: and says, I will not be a Catholic president. I
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: will be, and take direction from the Pope, but I'll
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: be a president who is Catholic. Okay? Everyone, one side note,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: President Clinton, the number one topic, 40% of his advertising,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: primary and general, was on, and welfare as we know it,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: was not on the economy stupid, was not on the
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: middle class tax cut. And so that is essential terrain. We,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: in 2024 as a party, get caught up in what
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: I call, you know, bathroom access and locker room access,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: not on classroom excellence. We get caught up on pronouns.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: We get caught up on a host of subjects.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: But do we get caught up? Because Kamala Harris barely
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: mentioned like trans issues, trans rights in her campaign. Republicans
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: talked about these issues constantly. They ran $ 50 million worth
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: of ads attacking her. And I think some people would argue, actually,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the problem was Democrats didn't fight back and defend and
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: explain our position.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Well, for a lot of reasons, mainly because we allowed constituents,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: constituent groups to dictate message. That is not the people
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: that do it. Yes, they made it an issue, but
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: that's a campaign.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Your job is to make what you want the issue.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: You have to not only rebut it, you have to
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: turn it. And we did things. It was a recent
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: report on immigration in the early days in the transition
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: for Biden. Yeah. And They allowed Washington constituency groups to
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: drive not only policy but message and then the political consequences.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: That is also true on a whole host of other
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: cultural subjects. And I'm not, I'm using culture in a
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: capital C. But if you look at the history of
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: successful Democrats, they cross a cultural terrain that gives them
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: a legitimacy to get hurt on the rest. Let me
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: take this message or this point just a further. In 06,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: as you know, we kind of modeled first ever using
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: people out of, not using, but recruiting people out of
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: the national security apparatus to run for office. The tactic,
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: believing that Messenger was message, was their biography opened up
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: a slew of voters that you'd normally get the mute
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: button on as a Democrat. In the same way on presidential,
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: if you don't look like, one, you're grounded where they
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: are in the family room, And two, that you have
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: the strength to take on a member of the family
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: and say, you're wrong. Pastor Wright, sister soldier, going on.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: You can't get heard where you want the campaign to be,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: which is a dichotomy between who we're fighting for and
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: who the Republicans are protecting.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: So I hear you.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: So that's my analysis of 2024. There's other things to
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: kind of go through, but money wasn't a problem. Usually
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: in campaigns, you have $ 3 billion. A lot of money.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: The message and how you operated as a campaign, in
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: my view, and I can say this from a distance,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: in July and August, I was arguing with the campaign
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: from a distance about calling for a national ban on
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: cell phones in classrooms. And I must have made, so
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: I don't get illegal, I was doing it in after hours,
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: but I was making tons of calls to anybody that
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: would answer. Couldn't get anybody to move. Yeah. And I'm
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: not saying that would have won it, but it would
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: have given you that cultural edge I'm talking about.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I think that's a really interesting point. It's something that
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: hits people directly. I do think, look, I think on immigration,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: you're right. There was an abject failure to read pretty
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: glaring warning sides, to watch the coverage on Fox News,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: to see how every day they were focused on the border.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: And it felt like chaos and a crisis. And the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Biden people didn't move. I do think there's been this
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: emphasis in the wake of 2024 on... uh, the suggestion
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: that Democrats ran on trans rights or were constantly talking
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: about the bathroom or were constantly talking about, you know,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: whatever our pronouns. And I just, I don't think that's accurate.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: And I think it leads to the trans community feeling
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: like they were blamed for a loss that I think
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: was about inflation and economic issues and others. And I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: think if we, we, I don't want us to miss
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the point. And I think that was really the real problem. I.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: I, It's your show, but I just slightly disagree.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: You can disagree.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: No, here's why. For when you come out, let's dial,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: put the clock back a little and look at the
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: video again. We spent two years shutting schools down during COVID.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Much longer than the science actually grew.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: That radicalized people.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: And people knew it.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: And the moment we opened that school door, we blew
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: open the bathroom door. there was debates about bathroom access,
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: there was debate about locker room access, and there was
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: debate about sports. And we were, this is where I disagree,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: we weren't a party of acceptance, we were a party
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: of advocacy on a set of subjects that weren't core
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: to people. And not that people, as somebody who in
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: 2016 as mayor dealt with bathroom access, I just didn't
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: make it primary. But there was, to act like there
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: wasn't heat on these topics, And that we were more
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: than silent. And we went from trying to create an
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: environment of acceptance to one that was advocating for them.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: And then there are other cultural issues. Don't put them
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: in boxes. How we were permissive. We were permissive on
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: this topic. We were permissive on immigration. We were permissive
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: on a host of other cultural issues that boxed us
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: in a place that took a whole group of voters
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: that we could have won. And they said, look, you
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: look like you sound like you're from Mars.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, we might have to agree to disagree. Look,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: you're right.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: I think we should.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: There was heat on this issue. Look, I think the
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: right policy approach is basically libertarian, which is like, let
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: people make their own medical decisions. Let families, parents and
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: kids make their own medical decisions. Get RFK and Dr.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Oz the fuck out of, you know, my conversation with
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: my doctor. When it comes to sports, of course, there's
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: questions of sports fairness, but like, It's not a one
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: size fits all approach. Let's let local communities figure that out.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Then there's just this question of like of empathy, right?
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: And communities feeling heard. And imagine you're, look, think back
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: to high school. Like I was a nerdy kid. Sometimes
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: you feel left out. You feel different than others. Imagine
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: you're like a trans kid. And you turn on the TV.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: You're looking at a guy who's– And Donald Trump is
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: mocking trans athletes like every day at rallies.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: And in high school– We have to fight for those kids.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: And taking ballet in the 70s.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: And trust me, I was the only male in that class.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: I'm very– I'm about an accepting culture without becoming an
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: advocacy culture. We are going to disagree to disagree because
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: I think you are underestimating how much that became a
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: brand and a profile, knowing full well that the other
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: side was going to use it.
• 17:06
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• 18:33
  Speaker 1: So the harder question, we have a broader Democratic Party
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: brand problem. I think we both agree on that. Sketch
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: out for me, like the Rahm Emanuel vision for the
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party. How do we fix this challenge we have?
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Because we're not doing a lot of that right now.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: No. Well, one is the nominee will, I'm not, let
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: me back up. The nominee will go a long way
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: that you can't go without a nominee and a primary fight.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Before that, There's a couple rules about the difference. People
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: conflate 2026 and 2028. 2026 is a referendum election on them.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: They own the House, the White House, and the Congress.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: When you have that, like in 2010, 2018, 1994, or 2006,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: that is a referendum election. You have a high turnout
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: about the party out of power. We have seen in
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: every election across the country in the last year exactly that.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Independents are going to break two to one for the
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: party out of power. We have seen it in every
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: election in every part of the country since November 2024.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: And there'll be a low turnout among Republicans, which we
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: have seen in every election for the last year. That
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: is what this election is about. And like we did
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: in 06, somewhere in the spring, you announce a, like
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: we did a 6 in 06, you should announce a
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: 6 in 2026, some modicum of a minimum wage, things
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: that we're going to work on, healthcare cost control, things
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: that actually reflect the message of affordability and accessibility and
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: income growth. I actually think one of the argument, one topic,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: if I could do a shout out, Your groceries are up.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: Housing costs are up. Utility rates are up. Healthcare costs
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: are up. You know what's not up? People's paycheck. And
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: we need to, if one person in this state is
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: getting a trillion dollar pay package, how about giving people
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: a minimum wage increase across the country? They haven't had
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: an increase in wages. And with all this technology coming
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: and productivity coming, well, the contract calls for an increase
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: in wages. So if other things are right. So that's A,
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: 2026 referendum. 2028 is a choice election. Now, one of
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: my things that I think is a problem for the
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: party is we've allowed Donald Trump to blind us. And
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: what I mean by that is everything we're doing is about,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: and there's a lot to fight Donald Trump on. He's
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: doing a lot that's damaging to the core of America.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: But we have to be able to also prove that
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: we can fight for America as much as we are
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: fighting with every fiber and every vigor of our body
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: in fighting Trump. And that centers around, in my core view,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: both on a message standpoint and what the brand of
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: the party is, that the American dream, and you and
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: I were talking about our kids earlier before, it's not
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: affordable and it's not accessible to the broad base of America.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: It's inaccessible. And for those of us that over the
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: course of our careers have made it, our kids, one
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: way or another, are going to be okay. But it
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: can't be the American dream when only 10% of the
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: kids of America get access to it. The rules, when
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: people say, I feel like I can't win, there's a reason.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Because you can't win. It is skewed towards Tommy and
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Rahm and our families. For our heads, we win, tails,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: you lose. And our message and the truth of the
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: matter is, and I think, Tommy, you and I read
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: a lot of history, etc., The moment the American dream
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: becomes unaffordable is when our democracy becomes unstable. If you
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: think the system is rigged for your failure, you're gonna
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: get pretty angry. And the party is about fighting for
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: that home, and the contract is not really hard. Good job,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: own a home, save for your retirement, save for your
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: kid's education, and be able to afford healthcare. That is
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: not really a lot to ask for out of a country,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: and we don't have that. We have to be honest.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: We didn't get here overnight. It was not a Republican fall.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: It's happened over the last 30 years, each thing incrementally
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: over a period of time. The ladder got pulled up,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: the door got shut, and double latches were put on.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: And you can see there's never been a greater concentration
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: of wealth in this country in a period of time,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: both on home and on the stock market. I mean,
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: the two things that generate wealth, like now. And the
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: idea that the next generation just literally gets handed wealth
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: their entire life's income plus just handed to them. And
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: the tax code encourages you to do it. It's crazy. Yeah,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: it's crazy. And so to me, that's the core. And
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: it would open up to a group of voters over
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: a period of time. And it's not a one election thing.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Every day you're doing sweat equity, pushing this. And I
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: think knowing that is, you know, the joke is paranoid
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: people have enemies. That system is not only skewed, You
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: are rather, you know, striving to get into a status.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: You're struggling to maintain it. And you are getting the shaft. Look,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: when I left college, I earned less than $ 20, 000. And
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: I was able to get an apartment. Today, my son
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: has worked in the Navy, leaves college. He gets, without
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: going much north of what I got, but he gets
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: a housing stipend. And without that housing stipend, his life
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: would be more difficult. A lot of people are making
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: three times what their parents made, and they're stuck in
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: the basement. This is a lived... They're not paranoid. And
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: the next thing is, if mom and dad want to
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: sell the house, the kid's coming with the house because
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: they can't get out of there. They can't afford an
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: apartment where I was making a third less than what
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: my own kids but other kids are making, and I
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: can afford to live on my own, where today kids cannot...
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: They have to have three or four roommates or they
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: have to live in their parents' basement. This is insane.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: So that's what I think is the, I think that
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: is how you get right with the American people. You
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: make it core to who you are, what you are,
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: what you're going to fight about. I think there are
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: other things that if we're strong at home, and I
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: say this going back to what I said about Japan,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: I learned a lot about Japan, learned a lot about
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: the Indo-Pacific. Being away from America 8,000 miles in 12 hours,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I got a chance to learn a lot about America,
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: probably more about America than any other thing. And we
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: have nothing China is doing scares me. It's what we
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: are not doing at home. China doesn't decide whether 50%
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: of our kids can't do reading and math at grade level.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: China doesn't decide whether we declare war on our research
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: universities while they're racing ahead.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: China doesn't decide whether we don't do all of the
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: above on energy, but only pick oil and gas, and
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: we're gonna bet everything on it. We have made, there
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: are challenges, other things we have to do, but the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: things we are not doing at home to take care
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: of the home front is making us weaker both at
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: home and abroad. That was, and it's really becoming at
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: a higher and higher price to us.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I think that is the right message. I think people
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: feel like the system is rigged because it is rigged.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: You're hearing it, you're seeing it in polling, you're seeing
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: it in focus groups, like, you know, swing left is
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: knocking on doors. The number one thing they're hearing is
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: not necessarily affordability. It's like the system is broken. It doesn't,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: you know, burn it all down. And so that leads
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: me to the question, like, look, I think on paper,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: you are, it's hard to argue anyone else is better
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: prepared to be president. You've been in, served in Congress,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: you were a mayor, you were an ambassador, you were
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: the White House chief of staff. Like, literally no other
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: job that a white house chief of staff could prepare
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: you to the job of president.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: But I think politically that you're going to encounter voters
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: who are like, fuck Washington, burn that place down, burn
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: what they've done down over the last, you know, 30 years.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: And they might blame you for NAFTA, the finance things.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: We are response to the financial crisis in the Obama years,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: you know, things Congress did. Like, how do you, how
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: do you respond to that? How do you deal with that?
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: A couple of things. One is, uh, You're not wrong about,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: let me say there's an axis. One way of saying new,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: which is a bigger kind of call about change, is generational.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Young versus old. The other one is strength versus weak,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: which is a part of the party grant. And having
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: somebody with strength would be different for the party. As
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: you all know, when it came to taking on the
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: financial industry, who got the call and who got the ball?
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: When it came to taking on the insurance companies for
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: kids' health care, who got the call, who got the ball?
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: Who was the first municipality to sue the pharmaceutical industry
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: over opiates? Who has had the toughest regulations as it
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: relates to tobacco and kids? Who took on the national
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: gun lobby? So strength would be a whole new quality
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: to the Democratic Party. And second is, as it relates
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: to the financial industry, I would just say, Some of
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: us were advocating for Old Testament justice. I don't want
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: to relitigate this.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: Some of us said.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: I wish you had won that fight.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Well, no. Well, actually, this actually is a good lesson.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: And I just did this yesterday with a bunch of
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: high school kids in Vegas.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Old Testament justice?
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Well, no. In the sense of, you know, the president
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: in the Oval Office, there are two choices, bad and worse.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: There's never good and bad.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: No.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: The people that were advocating health care first were not
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: wrong that every day that you didn't do it is
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: a day you probably can't get it done. Those of
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: us who are arguing for taking on the financial industry
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: and making the banks and insurance companies your enemy, we're actually,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: we're right both on the economics, but more importantly, right
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: also on the politics, which is you needed an enemy
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: of an interest group the American people were angry at.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: In the end of the day, he got 300 plus
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: electoral votes. He makes the big decision. He picked healthcare.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: We did get healthcare, but there was a political cost
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: called the Tea Party. And none of these are 100%
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: right and zero wrong. I do believe that we should
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: have taken on the fight after both TARP, the bailout
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: for the banks and insurance companies, and then after the
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: Recovery Act of $ 1. 6 trillion collectively. And that's when $ 1. 6
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: trillion was real money. The political, the culture of the
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: country needed a Old Testament justice. And you can't do,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: you couldn't do both. And the president said of the
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: three kids, cap and trade, health care, healthcare, And financial reform,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: his favorite child was healthcare. That was his joke that Saturday.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: And he wasn't wrong. We got it done, but don't
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: think that it doesn't come with a consequence, both in
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: the sense of.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Straight off, yeah.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: Because to pass healthcare, the insurance companies had to sit
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: on the same table. That was the lesson from Hillarycare.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: Fighting banks would have been a better fight. That said...
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Healthcare has become the kind of the beaches of Okinawa
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: for the Republican Party. Yeah, that's right.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: I want to.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: Ask you one kind of L.A.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Question before we get to foreign policy. L.A.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Question?
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're in L.A. at the moment. I think you've
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: got a relative who works in the movie business. I
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: think he's like a P.A. or something.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I try to forget that he's my brother.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: So what do you make of this battle between Paramount
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: and Netflix to buy Warner Brothers, and in particular, like,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: President Trump's efforts to inject himself into the process and
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: pick the winner? Like, I'm imagining... 2010 Barack Obama calling
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: up Warner brothers and saying like, you must green light
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: the town too.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: Let me wait before we get to this time. How
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: many times a day do you say to yourself, if
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: we had.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Done something every day, okay.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: Like that's 10 times before 9am. Yeah. Yeah. I can't
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: believe I spent $ 300, 000 creating a blind trust as chief executive.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, as chief of staff, I can't believe I
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: did that. And I look at this and also another great,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: couple hundred for ambassador. I look at people coming out
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: of prison are already nominated. I'm like, what? What am I,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: the schmuck in the room?
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: We all were schmucks.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: One funny story. I give the head of the ethics
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: at the State Department, you know, four months out, you
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: have to do an exit ethics report. I said, I
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: will do this, but you must be the Maytag woman, Matt.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, is nobody filling up? I look at all
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: these people who've never filled out a financial form. You're
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: chasing me four months afterwards?
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: It's crazy. Yeah.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: Okay. Now, thanks for the third bit. So, One, let
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: me go where I think the problem is. This is
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: the Roberts Supreme Court. I blame them. Because with their
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: decisions about FTC, the Securities Exchange, their view of the
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: unitary power of the presidency means that the president is
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: the ultimate judge. And he will insert himself. And it
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: won't be the rule of law. And it won't be
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: a nonpolitical independent body.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, nobody believes this Justin Palmer antitrust division. No.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: So they, Noah Feldman in Bloomberg had a fabulous piece
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: yesterday that all the other justices at the circuit court,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: court of appeals, et cetera, have done a fabulous job.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: And the Supreme Court, the leaders have abandoned the rank
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: and file judges on the field. This is their fault.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: I'm not a fan of Trump, so I don't want
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: this to be me. He has a permission slip to
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: insert himself. And all the guardrails about concentrating power in
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: either one person or one of the three branches of
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: government have been eradicated. Forget the Congress because the Republicans
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: have put their entire manhood into a lockbox. This is
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Robert's fault and nobody should kid themselves. The Supreme Court
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: has made a horrendous decision about the balance of power
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: in a country that's based on the rule of law
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: And you've got a decision here and the president's inserting
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: himself not only against CNN and not only on what
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: he's rewarding friends that have rewarded him. And he's going
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: to weigh in. This is not a pop quiz. Forget
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: that you and I, I mean, whatever I feel about
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump, you have given the president, whoever he or
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: she may be, a permission slip to have an opinion
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: that's more powerful than the law. This is for originalists.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: or a court system that base thinks of themselves as religious.
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: This is not anywhere close to the original founding framers
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: of the constitution about how power exercises itself in a
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: political system.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: So everybody's, I mean, I look, I've read about Netflix
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: versus Paramount and the concentration. And I, you know, I
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: don't know. But what I do know is that the
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Supreme court, has allowed the opinion of a president to
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: outweigh the law in a dramatic way. Not just, and
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I'm putting aside Donald Trump. There will be another decision
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: of a concentration of power, economic. And the Supreme Court
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: has given a green light to whoever is in the
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: presidency to make that decision, not the laws and the
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: interests of the country. And we do have two problems.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: I think of myself as a free market capitalist. And
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: on one side, you have Marxism. On the other side,
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: you have monopolists. And right now, the monopolists are winning
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: because that's Donald Trump's economic philosophy. And he gets to
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: decide because he's also going to, like he's doing today,
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: and I've talked about this a year ago on Ezra Kleinjoe,
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: corruption is going to be the issue. And I actually
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: think the reason MAGA voters feel the way they do
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: It's because they've betrayed. Rather than worried about their paycheck
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: and their checkbook, he's worried about his paycheck and his checkbook.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: And they know it.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're right. Look, I think, point well
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: taken on the courts. I also do blame Amazon a
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: little bit for paying $ 40 million for some boring-ass Melania documentary,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: which is self-evidently a bribe. Yeah. But, you know.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: In broad daylight.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: We'll call it what it is, I guess.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: No, I mean, look.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: No accountability.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: This is, and I'm going to do a shout-out to
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: the American people. The Roberts Court is corrupt. Corporate America
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: is spineless. Republicans in Congress and in both branches are useless.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: So we're down to the judgment of the American people
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: and thank God for them. I know a lot of
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: people in our party, oh, the American people, why do
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: they vote for this guy? They're going to issue a
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: judgment in 2026. And I'm very confident unless something dramatic happens,
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: it is going to be a verdict of guilty on
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: the president of the Republican Party. And thank God for
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: them because they are the thin blue line That's going
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: to put a stop to Donald Trump and pause it.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Where Roberts, the Republicans, corporate leaders, titans of media are useless.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: And I'm trying to make sure that this gets through
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: the FCC what I'm saying. Because they are useless. And
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: I could say some other things I used to say
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: when I was chief of staff and you walked in.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: I cannot stand what they have done.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Every one of them have failed the test of integrity.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Ponce of America is brought to you by AG1. AG1
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• 37:21
  Speaker 1: That's drinkag1. com slash crooked. All right, so when we talked
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: about setting this up, you wanted to do some foreign policy,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: which was music to my ears. So let's do it.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: Well, now that I'm a foreign policy person.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: You're an expert. You're an expert.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: I actually may one day get a double breasted suit.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: There we go. Work at Foggy Bottom. In the wake
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: of the war in Gaza on October 7th, a lot
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: of Democrats have been saying we need to rethink U.S.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: policy towards Israel. Our friend and former colleague Ben Rhodes
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: wrote this piece in The New York Times a couple
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: weeks back. He recommended, among other things, that the U.S.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: cut off military support to Israel, support U.S. recognition of
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: a Palestinian state. and refuse to take AIPAC money. Curious
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: what you think of those recommendations and then like what
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: changes you would propose, if any.
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: So, Tommy, you know this. In 2009, there's only one
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: person the Prime Minister of Israel calls a self-hating Jew publicly.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: You and Axelrod, right?
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Axelrod's pissed that he never gets to the recognition.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: I said, you're not that good a Jew, David. You're
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: also not named Rahm Israel.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Publicly.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: And he's also in his book, the only person he
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: attacks in the book is me. His own book.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: What did he sack you for?
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Just that I was anti-Israel. You know, the same stuff.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Got it.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: And if you remember, and I think you do, that
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: battle also in the Oval Office where literally the president
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: had to tell the prime minister, I'm the president. Lay
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: off Aram and so on and so forth. I have
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: a photo of it, actually, because we went toe-to-toe over
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: the housing expansions and settlements expansion in West Bank.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: So here's, let me, before it's just about Israel, let's
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: talk about the Middle East. And I'll talk about Israel
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: in that context because I think it's the context that matters.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: Israel has never been more strategically secure since Ben-Gurion was
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: dancing the Hora in 1948 in Tel Aviv, but more
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: politically vulnerable. I had never in my life that I
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: thought that a prime minister of the state of Israel
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: would lead Jews back into the ghetto. And that's what's
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: happening in Israel. That's what's happening in the world. And
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: that's what's happening around the world. Jews can't go to
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Europe and participate. in Eurovision, while the UAE is hosting
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: the world financially in an F1. He has literally, in
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: the way he has executed pieces of the last, not
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: just the last two years, but over his time, isolated
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Jews in Israel. The fact of the matter is this
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: is the best strategic terrain Israel's had since the founding.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: You have peace in Jordan with Israel. You have peace
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: with Egypt. Syria and Lebanon basically call it non-belligerence. You
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: can use whatever label, but it is in a more
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: secure place than ever before. Iran is on their back foot.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: I do want to spend time on this because I
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: think one of the most unreported stories right now is
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: the collapse of Iran, not just strategically, imploding into society.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: You don't really have, in the near geography, a strategic threat. Second,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: when we were starting in politics, the Gulf was all
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: about just oil. Today they want to be part of
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: the world economy, which is what Israel's ace is. The UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait,
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, want to use their petrodollars to be part
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: of the global economy and their citizens to be part
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: of the global economy. That is an invitation for Israel.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: And they're pissing it away with this prime minister. Rabin
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: understood that, and he was a statesman, and I say
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: because we're on the 30-year eve of his assassination, to
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: seize a moment. Look, these are not easy decisions. You
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: have to make compromises and then kind of leap into
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: the strategic, not only unknown, but try to shape the events.
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: To your favor.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: You have the Gulf countries ready to accept Israel as
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: part of the region, which has been the dream, the
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: nation among nations since its founding. And B, you have
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: strategic stability and you are perceived as a strategic superpower
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: in the region. That is an economic superpower. That is
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: an incredible, that is as good a chessboard as Israel
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: has ever had in 77 years. And there is nothing
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: that this prime minister has done, whether it's with Lebanon, Syria,
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: or the situations they have done that opened up the
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: Gulf to seize that moment that the IDF created. Now,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: I would do things that are very clear as it
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: relates to Israel. You've crossed the line on the settlements.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Unacceptable.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: Unacceptable. I said this when I was ambassador to Japan
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: to members of the Biden administration. Any settler who's involved
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: in any violence on the West Bank is on a
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: no-fly zone. Put them on a no-fly zone. Nothing would
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: make them more upset that they can't come, go to Brooklyn,
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: go to any part of America or go to Europe.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: Just no-fly zone.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Biden sort of started some of that process. Trump walked
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: it back, right? You want to go further.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: Okay. Without calling it out, there are people that know
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: that I want to go much further.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Got it.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: Two, you know, and you and I worked on this,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: President Obama signed the largest security defense package in Israel's history.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: I would continue that, but there are going to be
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: restraints and boundaries on that. And third, you're either going
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: to make the most of this strategic opportunity, but you
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: will not hold America's foreign policy. You will not hold
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: our strategic interests. I think all the others in the
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: Trump administration that basically want to just be a hemispheric,
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: you do not want to give up our position in
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: the Middle East. I think that's a foolish idea and
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: strategically flawed. And I would say, this is where we're
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: going and you can either be a part of it
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: or you can be on your own. So if you want, Mr.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: Prime Minister, you want a Sparta nation, let me not
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: stop you. But you're going to realize that's a losing bet.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Well, but isn't, I mean, like a lot of people
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: sort of default to the two-state solution, right? But Netanyahu
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: says he opposes a Palestinian state. The Knesset just voted
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: to annex the West Bank. we've been dealing with this
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: right wing government in Israel for 15 years. It's only
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: getting worse. It's, it's like, you know, Ben Gavir and
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Basil Smotrich are now like extremists who are members. Meanwhile,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: the Palestinian authority has no credibility. Um, it's been undercut. Yeah.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: They don't, they don't get a, uh, pass because they
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: missed three from camp David with Echobarach and Yasser Arafat
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: to what Omar offered him to six years later. It's
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: all the same, but they, they have missed many opportunity
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: and Israel, has, since those times, and other events in,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: you know, from bombs in Disneyland Square to October 7th,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: have just legitimized their position of non-dialogue, but it's not
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: a choice. Right.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: And so, like, I guess what I'm getting at is,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: it feels like, look, a lot of Democrats in the U.S.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: just say, oh, we need a two-state solution, we need
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: to negotiate that. It feels like that's just a way
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: to punt and will perpetuate the status quo. At some point,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: don't we need to use our leverage where we can
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: to try to push or pressure Netanyahu to make better decisions?
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Well, here's the one thing, and since Netanyahu's decided to
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: play in American politics, I have no problem discussing, but
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: the first step on that journey, and I give Naftali Ben-David,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: the former prime minister that was kind of the one
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: prime minister interrupting Bibi's 17-year run, is legitimizing the Arab-Israelis
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: to be part of the coalition government. They were, they
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: had 10 seats. That would reduce the stigma, but also
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: legitimize the Arab participation. I mean, one third of the population,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: not one third, 20% of the population is Arab Israelis.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: That's first step. Second, there are boundaries. And this was
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: also part of the housing fight that Mitchell and I
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: were not on the same page. He thought I was
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: too strident about this. At that time, I haven't seen
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: the law since. You used to be able in America
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: to get a tax write-off if you contribute to building
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: settlements in Israel. Eliminate it. I don't know if it
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: has been eliminated, but back then it wasn't. That was
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: my position. Two, you cross the line. Totally unacceptable. Three,
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: you're part of any violence. You're on a no-fly zone.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: You have to impose political, not just economic, but there
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: are some economic costs to violating the two-state solution. Because look,
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: there will never be a river to the sea and
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: there will never be a greater Israel, which is the
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: inverse of the river to the sea. There's the same thing.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: Both parties have to give up their extremist position and
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: learn how to live together. There is a legitimate concern
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: by Israel in the sense of a Palestinian authority that
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: can be a legitimate partner with the interest of finding
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: how to work with the state of Israel. You and
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: I sit here in Beverly Hills as we're taping this.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: Hollywood, sure.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: Okay, Hollywood. The trauma on Israel post-October 7th.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Horrifying. Unimaginable.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: It took us a decade on September 11th.
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: And you can't, if you're navigating a democracy, you can't
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: basically ignore that trauma.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: And it's real. It's viscerally real. I agree. And there's
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: a sad twist of irony because the kibbutzim on the
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: border of Gaza when you look at the vote totals,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: were the most progressive in Israel politics. And they destroyed,
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: not just Hamas, but the attacks in Dizengoff going back
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: 20 years, destroyed any center of gravity in Israel for
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: finding a partner for peace. That's just a fact for
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: their psyche and their dynamics of their politics. The history
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: of America with Israel is we do, America does things
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: to create a space for a prime minister to take
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: the risky political steps. Coddling prime minister, saying yes to
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: his actions is not in Israel's self-interest. That has not worked.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: And this course will not work. You will not repress
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: the Palestinian aspersion for a state. On the other hand,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: the Palestinians have to accept a two-state solution, not a
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: river to the sea solution.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: But would you want to condition military aid so that
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: it's not used in the West Bank, for example? Like,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: you know, you've seen the videos. I've seen the smotras
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: handing out American machine guns to extremists in the West Bank. Like,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't there be some strings attached to that money?
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: A small why, yes. As it relates to the West Bank,
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: et cetera, I get what you're saying. As it relates
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: to the security of Israel and in the relationship, because
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: the biggest conflict right now in Israel is Gaza. It's
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: not kind of Iran, although Iran's a very serious threat,
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: but I'm saying in the sense of hot or Lebanon.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: So there's got to... Without going this policy, there has
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: to be a cost benefit to making sure that Israel
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: realizes the decisions they make to continually repress a Palestinian aspiration.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: And we're paying for it. America's paying for it. And
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: I think Israel's paying for it by through their isolation,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: both political, strategic, and economically. I mean, look, the Israeli
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: symphony can't go perform somewhere in Europe. And a singer
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: can't perform somewhere in Europe. People, academics can't participate in
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: conferences on biomedicine and some of the great biomedicine and
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: life sciences that are being done in Israel or in
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: AI technology. That isolation is going to come with the consequences.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: And forget that I said it. I'd like to remind
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: the prime minister. Israel's now facing, for the first time,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: a net emigration. Your best young minds in the series
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: of science and technology are leaving, and they're going to Berlin,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: which has its own twist of irony. I said, yeah,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: you want to keep doing this, go ahead. Because we're
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: not going to bankroll this, because you're bankrupting your own country.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: And you have to be Nothing helps, as somebody who
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: took on Bibi in 2009 when a lot of other
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: people were lip-syncing the talking points out of AIPAC, nothing
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: helps Israel by saying yes to them automatically. There's a
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: cost to this, and we can't keep covering up that cost.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: So whether your manifestation of it is restrictions on weapons,
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: I'm finding a series of other things that I think
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: would hit a nerve politically and culturally in Israel that
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: this is not the cost we should be paying. This
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: is not the Rubicon. I'm not disagreeing with you. The
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: question is which of these restrictions costs would hit the
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: nerve to get them to wake up because right now
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: they're living in an illusion that there is no choice
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: they have to make. The choice you're making, which you
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: think is no choice, comes at a huge consequence. And
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: I'm not covering that bill for you when I say I,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: meaning the Americans anymore.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Agreed with that. Last little thing on this.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Because we're doing things. If you want to isolate Israel
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: and you, Mr. Prime Minister, give this stupid speech about Sparta,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: that's you. We're not going to isolate ourselves. And what
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: you're doing, we're not going to keep covering because we're
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: not going to get isolated with you. That's not how
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: we're doing this score. Yeah.
• 50:44
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• 50:45
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• 50:50
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• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Ben Rhodes wrote in his book that you once jokingly
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: referred to him as Hamas. People on the left have
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: taken this anecdote and interpreted it as showing that you
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: didn't care about Palestinian rights. People on the right seem
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: to think, they like to throw it in Ben's face
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: and suggest you think he was a literal terrorist sympathizer.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: Do you want to clarify whether in that moment you
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: thought Ben was living in a tunnel somewhere?
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: I still think academia is a tunnel. No, as I, well,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: first of all, you are talking about John Kerry is
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, calls the presidents on
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: the road. He says, Hamas wants to hand me a letter.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: I said, well, take it.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: Fact.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: I said, bring it, bring it back so we can
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: see it. I said, don't cut off the communication. And
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: as soon as the president was back, it was a
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: domestic trip, I said, I approve this. And he says, good.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: So that's my background. I don't remember that anecdote, but
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: it sounds kind of accurate, so it's hard for me
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: to argue about it.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: Sounds like a harmless joke.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: No, well. Yeah, it was probably harmless, but obviously it
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: cut a nerve with Ben because he remembers it. But here, look,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: we had disagreements, which is what you're supposed to have
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: on policy and how best to, the goal of what
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: we were both trying to achieve. And I don't mean
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: just isolating this to Ben and I. It's ironic. Ben
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: would say what he said about me and then Bibi
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: would say what I said. I think I'm perfectly positioned.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: You mentioned Iran a couple of times. Do you think
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: President Trump was right to bomb Iran's nuclear sites?
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Yes, but let me walk back where I think we are.
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: One is we made this threat by all means. Both
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: Democrat and Republican presidents have said all options are on
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: the table. Here was an option, and you had a
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: chance for once in a while, because if you didn't
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: do it, you definitely would have been shorter than where
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: we are from a strategic setback. I actually think one
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: of the things, Tommy, that's underappreciated right now, and you
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: have a lot of news around Ukraine, you have what
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: China's doing vis-a-vis Japan and or Taiwan right now. I
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: think this split between society and the government in Iran
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: is an underappreciated, underreported story. I don't think three years
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: from now, Iran's going to be what you and I
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: are sitting here today. There's a massive drought where they're
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: talking about moving the capital out of Tehran. I don't
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: know if anybody knows this, but that's not a minor story. Two,
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: there are bars popping up all over the place and
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: the government can't and won't and will not shut them down.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Women now are fully dressing and doing whatever they want
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: as it relates to the Hajib law that we talk
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: about from cosmetics, etc. Fourth, music concerts that were restricted
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: are happening all over the place.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: Fifth, there was.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Recently a marathon run in which women were dressing like
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: as if they were any Western city. There is a
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: gulf of legitimacy between the society and the government that
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: is wider than we've ever experienced. Now, a lot of
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: people said the revolution or the collapse of the government
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: is right around the corner so that I could also
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: be the 20th wrong predictor. But in the last dozen years,
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: You've had three separate manifestations of domestic civil unrest. Something
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: is bubbling. You've also had the economic pressure by the
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: West led by the United States. And you have, given
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: that the government and most importantly, the security apparatus failed
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: in its ability to protect the country. I think the religious,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: and you have, lastly, I should just say, a head
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: of state who's 80-plus years old, too old, and there's
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: a transition of power. All those data points always historically
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: point to something dramatically about to happen. Yeah, I don't know.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: It doesn't mean that it goes reformist. I should probably
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: add the president of Iran just said, I can't fix this.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that was a weird quote.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: That was, yeah. You and I would have grabbed President
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: Obama by the collar, pulled him back into the, oh,
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: we're not saying that. No, I don't know what happened
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: with the truth medication, but we're changing the dosage here. No,
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: I think so. Something is not good in Denmark, to
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: quote William Shakespeare. So something is amiss there, and it's
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: not on anybody's radar screen. as like the last proposal
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: between the Russians and Ukrainians for good reason, but something long,
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: short and medium term is happening there of massive significance
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: where the relationship between society and government is under a
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: fundamental change. Does it lead to revolution?
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: But when you have that transition of power, there's going
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: to be a break. That's my prediction.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm just on the Iranian front.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, do you think that's a wrong analysis?
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: No, I think it's, it's an interesting analysis. I I'm,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I'm watching as closely as you are. I just think
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: on the nuclear front, I mean, you know, the tail
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: of the tape is you're right. Everyone, every Democrat, Obama
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: included Republican said all options on the table that Obama
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: cuts the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal, the U S
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: pulls out of it unilaterally, even though the Iranians are
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: complying his own staff, his national security team was like,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: don't do this. This is making us safer. then he
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: gets into these talks with the Iranians, you know, sort
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: of this iteration this last year, he says he wants
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: to cut a deal, but now they're the Trump administration
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: is like bragging to the press about how they were
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: actually lying. And they were just saying they wanted more
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: talks to, you know, give the Israelis covers to go
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: bomb the shit out of them. And I just worry
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: about American credibility because who's going to cut.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: A deal with this. Well, here's the thing though. So
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: let's take the credibility and throw it. I happen to
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: think when president Obama, uh, said to Syria that you're
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: going to cross a red line and we didn't execute
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: on that, it hurt America's credibility. You have a situation
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: where Israel's bombing what they're doing, et cetera. We always
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: have said all options on the table. Had we not
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: chosen to do that, I think American credibility would have
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: taken a hit. I'm not wrong about, look, I supported
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: the agreement with Iran. It's a 51-49, but I leaned
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: on the 51. It was not a 80-20, it wasn't
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: a 60-40. That's just my view. It was a close call.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: It was a bet that if you stymied the nuclear peace,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: that this thing that I'm talking about that's happening now,
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: because of the demographics of Iran, the youth who wanted
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: to be part of the world would desire. That was
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: the basic bet. Now, what it didn't do was deal
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: with the Shiite crescent from Hezbollah to Syria, etc. And
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: what it didn't do was deal with the technology on
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: missile delivery, which are faults to that agreement. There were
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: blemishes on that agreement.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: They were part of it, right?
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Look, every agreement.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: You can't do everything. Yeah.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you know this, but the Obamacare
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: didn't do everything.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Exactly.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: You just basically make a decision that this slice of
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: the loaf of the bread is good, if not good enough. Okay?
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: And those were two things that were big problems. You
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: had to make a decision, were they problems enough not
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: to do it? And that's why I say the president
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: was right to do it, but I'm conscious of it.
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: It's a 51-49 call. That was his option on the table,
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: but he always said to get there, the military kinetic
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: option had to be there. There was a chance, given
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: that what Iran was doing in the final three months
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: prior to that, of not participating in the international community
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: and not really opening up the full kimono. You could
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: set back their nuclear timeline. And so, again, that too,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: the bombing, was a 51-49 decision, if you ask me.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: I think it was the right decision.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: I'm sure we're going to be doing it again pretty soon, but,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: you know.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: I do. That's actually the two things I'd keep a
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: flashing light as Gaza stalls and Israel gets filled with
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: their hubris, specifically the prime minister, and not have the
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: courage to make the most of this strategic window he
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: has at the IDF schedule. I worry about his decision,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: what he's going to do with Hezbollah up in Lebanon,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: and what he's going to do that he thinks he
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: has an opportunity to continue to keep Iran On their
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: back heel. And I do worry about that. That's why
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: I think America's power is not to say us closely aligned,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: but here is our position. And anytime you're going to
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: endanger our strategic position, that's when we have a gulf
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: between us. It's not our job to stay close to you.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: It's your job to stay close to us.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I'm going super long. So you tell me
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: when you got to go.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: I got to catch a flight. What time is it?
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: 1056. Okay.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: You get like, We're going to do five, no more
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: than 10 minutes, but five minutes.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, great.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Fast round, let's go.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: World, globe. So you were Biden's ambassador to Japan.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Rumor has it. You're still an ally.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: You're still an ally.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: You had doubts, Tommy. You did not think that I
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: could go three years, let alone three.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Months as an ally. Hey, God bless you. There's a
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: lot of turnover over there. I didn't notice that. So
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: they have a new prime minister, Sanae Takeuchi. She's the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: first woman to serve as prime minister. Interesting person, ultra conservative,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: kind of wonky nationalist, like Shinzo Abe protege. But she
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: made waves right out of the gate by saying that
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: if the Chinese invade Taiwan, that is like a so-called
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: existential threat, which would allow Japan under their constitution to
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: deploy troops and use force. That didn't go over well
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: in Beijing. There led to this war of words, diplomatic crisis.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: And then earlier this month, Tokyo says Chinese fighter jets
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: locked radar on their F-15s for like 30 minutes.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: And it took the United States— 10 days, two weeks
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: to say to the long pole, our most entrusted ally,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: that we're going to stand behind you.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Which is crazy.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: With a B-52 and some exercises.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: Which is crazy.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: And I'm wondering.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: And everybody in the rest of the region was watching
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: the United States fumble the ball.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: Well, so that's kind of the bigger point. Like, first
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: of all, was this a rookie move on her part?
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: How do you, how did you read what she said?
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: And also how worried are we that we got like
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: rising China, increasingly nationalist and militarized Japan. And then the U.S.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: who seemed willing to just like sell out Taiwan and
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: walk away if we can get an economic deal from
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: the Chinese.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know. You just saw the military package by
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: the president. That was pretty robust on the check.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: From Congress, right?
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: It did go $ 11 billion. It was kind of robust.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: You might be right.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: I thought it was announced by the administration. Maybe I'm wrong.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: I could be wrong. Okay.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: So let's go on the core here. I don't think
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: her move was rookie. She actually enunciated. what had been
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: the policy. And I actually think what China's upset is
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: now it's explicit. What China never wanted was the cost
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: to be explicit. And it isolated China in the region.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: My constant refrain when I was in the administration, and
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: I think we were there, not that I shaped it,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: not that I declared it, but I influenced it, which
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: was our goal is to isolate the isolator. China's strategy
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: is to constantly take one country, use political, economic, and
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: other type of power to isolate them. But by building
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: the coalition of Australia, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, India, Canada,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: that China's the isolator.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: And they knew it.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: That's why. So I think what she did is the right,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: she said what was always implied, never clear, and now
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: China knows the cost. Second, they're doing a series of
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: things on the island chains of Okinawa that go all
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: the way to within 67 miles of Taiwan, that things
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: that we worked on that I thought would take a
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: decade are happening. Third, my guess is what she is
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: doing helps him at home and what she's doing is
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: helping her at home politically because she's in the 70s.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: As I said, she's the only head of state in
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: the entire developed world that's above 50%. And that's a
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: telling sign. And I think she's done a unique thing.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: As a woman, she's gotten the urban centers of Japan
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: excited about this change. On the other hand, her policies
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: are all very old and traditional and conservative. So she's
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: kept the LDP's rural base and brought them back into
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: the fold when they were fading away. So she's got
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: this kind of very interesting, solid position based on the
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: fact that both by person and by policy, she's put
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: together a coalition that the LDP has been struggling for
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: 20 years to get politically. Third, you know, Japan is
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: the long pole of America's policy in the Pacific. And
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: for her to say, one, they went up under our
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: watch from 1% to 2% of GDP to defense spending
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: from the ninth to the third largest capabilities. They just
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: did something recently that everybody would have said you couldn't
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: do without a constitutional change. They're selling military equipment to Australia.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: That used to be banned. So they are crossing thresholds
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: because of the security threat. Now, if the United States
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: was all in giving confidence to our allies, Korea, Japan, Australia,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: not doing what we did in India, which is ridiculous,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: we have a partner now for a robust strategy that
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: would say to China, here are the costs for what
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: you're going to do. You better think about this. And
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: remember one other thing. China's, in my view, first strategy
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: vis-a-vis Taiwan. is going to be more of a kind
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: of quarantine.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll blockade.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: You cannot do that, given where we are in the
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: Philippines and where Japan is on the southern islands of
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: Okinawa that come part of that first island chain. It
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: is not impossible, but very difficult once those capacities are
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: fully mobilized. And so to me, to short end of
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: your comments is, I think that it wasn't a rookie mistake.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: And I think it's incumbent upon us not to make
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: her look like she has to back down to China
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: because that will not stay in the Japan periphery. That
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: will reverberate in the region. And if we look like
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: we're weak and we look like we're not a permanent
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Pacific power in presence, there is no way that countries
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: in that region, and I'm thinking of Korea and Japan,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: don't think over the next 10 years that they have
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: to go nuclear. If you think the cost of nonproliferation
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: is expensive, you're going to get sticker shock on proliferation.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: No shit.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: Real scary. Last question. I've been thinking a lot about
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: like early Obama era counterterrorism policies. A lot of critics
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: say there are way too many drone strikes. Um, I,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: the further I get from that time in government, I
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: tend to agree with them really. And while I tend
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: to feel like the so-called, you know, war on terror
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: writ large has been an abject failure. When you see
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: Al Qaeda-like affiliates, ISIS spreading everywhere, right? Now, the counterpoint
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: to that is when you were chief of staff 2009, 2010,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: there were some real deal scary threats to the United States.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: You know, the Christmas Day bomber, Times Square bomber.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: The guy from Colorado. I'll walk you through that story.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Najibul Azazi, right?
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: I'll never forget. Yes.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: Near misses. Like, luck saved us from catastrophe, right? And
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: then there were these counterterrorism policies and a lot of
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: those things haven't happened again. So I'm just curious when
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: you reflect on that time and you think about how
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: you'd keep the country safe from terrorism, how that informs
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: your thinking.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: I've always, so I don't know if you remember this story.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: Some young man in the NSA picked up a word
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: on the telecommunications that said the marriage worked. And he
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: just caught him and says, nobody says that. And then
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: he starts to unravel this.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Hmm.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: And where the call was originally made. Now, all the
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: smarty pants poo-pooed this kid. And I, not just me,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: but the president, myself, Biden. Well, run it down. Turns out,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: they find out, he goes to Walmart and buys 10 backpacks.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: He goes to one of those kind of bulk buying,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: you know, when you buy stuff for the beauty show.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: All these giant cases that are essential materials for homemade bombs.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: And then all the smarty pants who thought the kid
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: was out of his mind because he caught the word,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: the marriage worked. That's what you say after 20 years,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: not in 10 seconds. That he was onto something. Then
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: we started finding other stuff in his credit card. Then
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: we put helicopters and we find out he's starting to drive.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: To New York, right?
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: To New York. And we had cars to New Jersey.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: So I'll never forget that. 96 hours. I must've aged.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: And I think the president did too. And we aged,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: although we had confidence, we had them in a sense,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: we had them in our sight line of vision, but
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: that was, um, breathtaking. And there were other events that
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: you have identified.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: This guy named Najibul Azazi, who along with two friends,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: he's going to blow up the New York city subway.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember, but the FBI got
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: ahead of the police department or no, I think the
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: police department, no, the police department moved ahead. And it is,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: classic case of the FBI and local law enforcement not
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: exactly being on the same page. But that said, got
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: him before anything. And the imam, it's not clear whether
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: he knew it or was protecting him or was acting
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: like he didn't know him, et cetera, or what his
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: intent was. So to me, I haven't, you know, Tommy,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: I gotta be honest, I hadn't really thought about it
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: in the sense, did we, did our actions have a
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: reaction that made the situation worse? I do think you
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: have to think about two things. One, people are trying
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: to do harm to the United States. Our border, specifically
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: on the south, have been used by enemies for their advantage.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: And you have to be, that doesn't, Donald Trump pulling
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: people's green cards, not letting kids go to school, that's
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: not the end. But I haven't thought a lot recently
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: about whether the policies we were pursuing in the quote unquote,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: in the name of the war on terror, both overseas
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: and here, Actually perpetuated or accentuated? Because I think actually
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: on one scorecard, we haven't really had a local terrorism
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: attack vis-a-vis kind of a 9-11 like. So at one
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: level from a homeland front, it has worked. Whether it
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: has created its own, the terrorist cells, there's as many before,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: there's just more of them spread out and smaller. That
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: just may be what both of those are happening in
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: real time, which is we've protected the home front, but
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: we've created more threats overseas.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a complicated story. Rahm Emanuel, thank you so
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: much for sitting down.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you. Great to see you.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Could ask you another hour.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: Happy and a healthy new year. You too. And mazel
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: tov to you and your wife and the young kids.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 1:11:27
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