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NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NFL Best Bets Sunday 11/9/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my browins hack Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the Slump series, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: for better off dead. Sunday, November ninth, Uh, thanks for
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: hanging out, guys for the football show. Outside the NFL show,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: we got three NFL plays for today, So you go
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: back and see the analysis on that no football plays
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: in the stupid Berlin game involving my Indianapolis Colts that
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: just kicked off all of the market read looks like
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: it's against the Colts. I had struggled to figure out
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: what I thought about that game, so we'll see what
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: happens in that game. I don't like this NFL board.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I don't like the numbers that ESPN is giving us.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: If pigs can pick them, they're not really the most
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: beneficial numbers for some of the sides that I like,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: so I don't like it. I'm gonna add some plays here.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have three college basketball plays, and I'm actually
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: trying to restrain myself because I was close to having
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: like five, even though it's not even that big of
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: a card, like a typical Sunday for me in college
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: basketball is usually like maybe two. But I think the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: board is maybe a little bit bigger than I thought
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: it would be. I'm gonna have two hockey plays and
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping NBA. I don't like the NBA board at
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: all today. So that's what we're gonna do today. Jeffrey,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: what's up, man, Thanks for hanging out. Let's jump into it. Man.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: After six and seven day yesterday, if you want to
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: see my rant about that, you can go to the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: NFL show from last night. I don't want to repeat that,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: but I will say that we were a half point
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: away from a winning day seven and six, which should
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: have happened because if you have a plus six and
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: a half underdog Auburn who is covering almost wire to
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: wire and takes the game into overtime, you should have
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: that one right. But we did not get that one right.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I'm just sick of losing all these plays on Auburn.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: I'm sick of losing plays against Vandy. It's bullshit, man.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: College basketball let's get right into it, man, this is
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: the whole show. Is gonna be a best bets segment?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: How about that? The first game up is maybe my
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: favorite because this is one game where like both sides
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: of this matchup all lead me in one direction here,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: and that is we're gonna go with Western Michigan plus
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: eight against Campbell. Yes, this is Western Michigan's first true
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: road game, I believe, so sometimes I don't want to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: play a team when they're going on the road for
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: the first time. But they're getting points here and I
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: just think this is a bad set up here. Campbell
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: has moved up to the eight from a seven and
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: a half. Don't really see any percentages yet. But Western Michigan,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're the next team that everybody's making fun
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: of after a Boise State, which Boise State did bounce
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: back nicely with a win and covery yesterday for US.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan's in somewhat of a similar spot to that
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: because they lost to Northwood in their second game. And yes,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I know Western Michigan is not a good team. They
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: barely beat Coastal Carolina in their first game, but this
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: is just embarrassing, man, losing to Northwood Michigan, whatever that is.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I guess that's what that is. A Division two team
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: at home Western Michigan. There wasn't even a line on
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: this game. Western Michigan was definitely a big favorite in
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: this game. But you know, Northwood is an in state
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: little brother, so you gotta think they stepped up their
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: game a little bit. One thing that does kind of
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: concern me a little bit is that there wasn't like
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: a shooting percentage outlier here. Western Michigan actually did outshoot
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Northwood here and still lost the game, but it was
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: all becase as a turnovers pretty much. Twenty two turnovers.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's something that you can kind of clean up.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Man like. That has to do more with discipline than
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: anything else. So I do think that that's correctable. A
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan did a rebound, north would at least, So
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: there are some things that I like to see that
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: are in there. So I do think Western Michigan is
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: worth a look here. And on the other side, Campbell, Yes,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: this is their home openers, so normally I wouldn't want
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: to play on a team in their home opener. Yeah,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: they're owing two because they lost at Wisconsin and at
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Those are not easy games to start out
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the season. So yes, they're not as bad as the
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: record looks, But look at what they did against West Virginia. Man,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: they're fifteen and a half point favorites. They went into
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: West Virginia, into Morgantown, and they actually were in this
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: game late in the game, Like, this game was close
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: in the second half, and it was as close as
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: a four point game I think later in the game. Yeah,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: it was sixty four to sixty with a minute and
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: a half left, So Campbell was not going away in
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: this game, and they were pretty close to pulling this upset.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna be in a bit of
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot after that. Man, whenever you have a
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: huge underdog that like plays their guts out like that
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: against one of the big boys and they fall just
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: short and then they flip to being a favorite in
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: the next game and a fairly substantial one, I think
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: you want to look to go against that team. So
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: we have both sides lining up for this where I
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: think on the other hand, Western Michigan they're an underdog
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: now after they played really poorly as a favorite, so
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up with some more focus here. Yes,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: we all know Campbell is the better team. We know
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan's terrible, but I'm gonna go with it. I
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: don't remember what the number all was that Ken Bom
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: had on this. Kem Bomb does have a Western Michigan
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: as the two hundred and eighty third team, which is
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: not good obviously, and he's got Campbell better than that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: at two hundredth that's still not great. Campbell is more
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: of a slow down team, so a lot of times
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I will lean towards the home team that has the
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: tempo disparity, But in this case, you're asking the slow
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: down team to lay points and I don't think that's
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: a good idea either. Campbell is not very prolific offensively,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: so everything kind of lines up for this one. We'll
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: take Western Michigan plus the points here. You know, like NBA,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: either Nix and Pistons are on winning streets. Yeah, I mean,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Knicks are gonna lose to the
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets outright. I will point that out, whether or
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: not the cover is a different story. The Pistons, they
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I think they're a big favorite today too, maybe too
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: big you have Miami in oh Miami Dolphins. Hell, yeah,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: that is one of my NFL plays. Yeah, hopefully I
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's gonna get to ten or not,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: but hopefully we get that one. Thanks for hanging out, Jeffrey.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Have a good day today, man. All right, next up
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: one of the big games. We're in the afternoon slate here.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Still we do have Indiana at Marquette, or not at Marquette.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: This is actually in a neutral site in Chicago. They're
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: playing at the United Center, which is the Bulls Arenas.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: This is actually a neutral site game, basically halfway ish.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: It's actually I think kind of closer to Marquette because
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Marquette is somewhere like in the Milwaukee area. I'm pretty
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: sure in Indiana, of course, is in the middle of Indiana.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: So maybe a slight edge in the venue to Marquette,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: but maybe not, because both of these teams are gonna
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: show up like their fan bases. You know, these fan
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: bases are gonna travel, and probably Indiana's travels better because
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: they have such a history. So I do think it
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: is a fair like neutral site game here. Indiana is
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: up to a three point favorite. They were one and
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: a half, and I think the money has moved them
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: to three. So the market is indicating that Indiana is
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the side, and this one is sixty one percent tickets
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash. I don't really have
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: a situational angle on this, so I think both teams
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: are gonna show up. So it's just kind of a
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: matter of which one of these teams is the better team.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Indiana they've been really good at football, as we know,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: but they and they just escaped yesterday, but they haven't
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: been as good at basketball recently. They've I think missed
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the tournament the last couple of years, and I think
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Marquette at least made the tournament the last few years.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So I think Marquette kind of has that air around
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: them that they're the better team recently, even though Indiana
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: has all this history. But I think that is also
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: going to kind of lend itself to like, maybe you
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: actually get some value in Indiana here. Maybe they're actually
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: under the radar a little bit because they've been the
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: lesser of these two teams in college basketball the last
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: few years. So that's all I could really say about it.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with Indiana, assuming that Ken boond probably
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: has Indiana is the better team as well. He does.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: He has them about fourteen ranking spots higher. Indiana is
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: also a slow paced team where Marquette is a faster
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: paced team, and it is easier to slow the game down.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: So Indiana might be able to try to control the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: pace here and slow it down. And you're not really
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: asking him to lay that many points here either, So
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: maybe another chech check mark for Indiana there. All right,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Next up, I'm gonna give you another play here. I'm
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: basically just gonna talk about my plays and my almost
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: plays here and a couple of big games that are
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: out there. We're gonna lay the points with Bowling Green.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: As ridiculous as this looks, they're about a thirteen point
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: favorite thirteen and a half. They're actually down to eleven
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: and a half, so it looks like the money has
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: kind of coming against them. So actually, let me change
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: that right now. I think you can get them at
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half, and I like that. I think
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: ken Baum kind of has them winning by right in
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: that margin somewhere around eleven. I don't like that the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: number has moved down, but I think this is a
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: spot to fade Lemoine Man the Lemoyne Dolphins. This is
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a Dolphins scene that we're gonna fade, unlike the Miami
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: on today. Leamoyne they're fairly new to f too. I
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: almost said FBS to Division one. I think Lemoyne was
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: new to Division one last year. They're in the Northeastern Conference,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: which is not a very good conference. But they just
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: played really really well against Xavier in their last game,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: and they shot really crazy fifty two point nine percent
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: from the field. I know Xavier had a really good
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: three point percentage in the game, so that's something that
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I would look for LeMoyne's opponent to regress in the
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: three point department. But Lemoyne, I don't think they're gonna
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: be able to shoot fifty three percent from the field
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: again here. But they were able to do that against Xavier,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: and they only lost by five. As twenty four and
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at Xavier. They took Xavier basically
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: to the limit. They were within two possessions late in
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: this game was a four point game in the final
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: couple of minutes. So Lemoyne, just like I said with
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Campbell Man, Leamoyne really really played a great game. Here
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and came close to being able to pull off a
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: huge upset over Xavier. Now off of that, they got
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to go on the road and go to Bowling Green.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I know it's not that much travel between Xavier and
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green, but I don't like it, man, And you
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: could argue that maybe they'll even pay more attention to
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: U Mass coming up next to because U Mass is
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: kind of more in LeMoyne's area of the country, I guess,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: if you want to call it that, in the northeast,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: and New Mass is in a better conference, the Atlantic Ten,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: and they've been somewhat of a decent team in the
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Atlantic Ten recently, whereas Bowling Green they're in the MAC
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: and they really have not been a great basketball team.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So it is possible le Mooyne overlooks Bowling Green. The
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: oswigers are still telling you which team is the substantially
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: better team, and that is still Bowling Green. Here, Bowling
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Green is two and all, although they face a fairly
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: easy schedule so far though Texas State. Actually I don't
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: think they've been that bad recently in basketball, and Bowling
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Green did absolutely annihilate them. And yes, they put up
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: a ton of points against the Division two teams. So
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: sometimes they look to fade teams like that because they
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: face weak competition and they look maybe better than they
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: actually are. But Bowling Green is only a five and
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: a half point favor And in that game against Texas State,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: and yeah, there were some real statistical outliers here, Bowling
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Green outshot Texas State by a crazy margin, so it
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: was a bit of an outlier, but they did out
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: rebound them too. So the fact that they beat that
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: better team in Texas State, they should, in my opinion,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: be able to handle Lamoyne here as well. Lomoyne not
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: as good as Texas State. And then if you'll get
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you know ken BOM's rankings here, he actually is Bowling
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Green as not a terrible MAC team. At one hundred
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and thirty ninth in the country. That's not too bad.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: He has them fairly decent defensively, like close to cracking
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: the top one hundred right now, though I know it's early.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So these stats that ken Bom has, they're gonna be
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: shifting around a lot, and he does that. Bowling Green
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: as a faster paced team. Lemoyne likes to play a
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: little bit slower. They're in the slower third basically of
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: teams for the most part, and Lamoyne. You can see
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the rankings here right now, ken Bum is not giving
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: them any respect. They're at three hundred and eighteenth in
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the country overall, they're almost in the bottom sixty or
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: so in both offense and defense, and they are in
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: the bottom like forty in defense, so not a good defense.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: So even though Bowling Green, well, actually what I was
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: gonna say, Bowling Green could actually speed this game up
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit, which I like playing a favorite when
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: they might speed the tempo up a little bit because
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: that's gonna help them cover more easily. And the fact
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: that Lemoyne is not a good defensive team, so I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: think that game against Xavier, Xavier does play fast too typically,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: But maybe we don't know what Xavier really is yet
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: because I think they lost their coach, right, Sean Miller
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: went to Texas this year, So we don't really know
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: what Xavier is gonna look like this year. I think
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: we do kind of know what Bowling Green is gonna
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: be doing this year. So yeah, we're gonna lay it
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: with Bowling Green in that one. All right, what else
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: do we have going on here? I will say, I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: like Dartmouth against Maris, this has not made my card.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: But Marist they're coming off almost beat Xavier too. But
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: maybe Xavier is just not that good right now, man,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, Xavier going through some growing pains right now.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe this was a game where Xavier was only a
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half point favorite because Marist they were
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: actually one of the best teams in the matt Ac
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Conference last year and though they weren't able to win it,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: they're actually kind of a team on the upswing. Although
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: this was still a big game for Marius and they
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off the upset at Xavier, they were actually
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: winning the game late in the game. In the final
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: couple of minutes, Maris actually had a lead in the game.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: They fell just short. A Xavier played pretty poorly as
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: far as the shooting went. They were only thirty four
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: percent from the field, so Xavier really really shot poorly.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: So that's again a bit of a statistical anomaly there
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: that would lead me to say that Maris probably did
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than they should have in this game,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: and they shot well forty seven point seven percent from
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: the field, which is maybe a little bit of an
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: outlier as well, so I'm looking to fade Maris coming
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: off of that. My only problem here is, yeah, they're
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: going to Dartmouth. It's another road game from Marius, which
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: is not gonna be that easy. It's a bit of
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: travel going from Cincinnati up to New Hampshire. But Dartmouth
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: still actually hasn't even played a game yet. So that's
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: what worries me about this a little bit, is you
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: have a Dartmouth team coming in cold, whereas at least
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Maris has a game under their belt. Although again Maris
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off that opposite, so I would still be
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: looking to Dartmouth in this one. And the money, well,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: the line move at least agreed with Dartmouth moving to
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: one point favor although we see fifty percent of tickets
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the cash on Maren. Now, it's
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: very hard to try to make these reads on college
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: basketball early in the day. So that's really all I
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: have to say about that. But I would lean to
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Dartmouth in that one, but it has not made my
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: card just because I don't really love taking teams that
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: are coming in cold and still haven't played yet, because
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: there could be some you know, like they could start
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: off a bit slow, Nate, what's up man? They started
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: hanging out all right. Next up, we do have a
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: game on ESPN two between Texas A and M and
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, so former Big twelve matchup here now SEC
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: versus Big twelve. Texas A and M, of course, has
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: been the better of these two teams recently, although they've
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: been pretty bad offensively. They've been good defensively and a
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: good rebounding and physical team, but they haven't been able
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to score well. O. They're off to a two and
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: zero start, but they basically beat two cupcakes, so there's
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: nothing to really take away from that. And this is
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: their first true road game, so some concerns here. This
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: game is still like in the afternoon today. By the way,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State they had one win so far on the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: season at home against or Roberts, so this is not
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: going to be their home opener, but they are staying
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: at home. I think maybe Oklahoma State could be a
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: little bit under the radar here because they've been the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: worst of these two teams recently, so Texas A and
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: M maybe getting a little bit too much respect. But
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: they are up from one and a half to two here.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets ninety two percent of the cash.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: The money is actually saying Texas A and M here,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: but I might tend to slightly disagree with that. Ken
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: bum does still have them ranked pretty high at thirty
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: first in the country. Surprisingly, he has them as a
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: very fast tempo team, so maybe Texas A and M
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: is not the same team that we saw last year,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: so that's interesting. He has Oklahoma State all the way
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: down at seventy second. He has them as an extreme
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: fast tempo team, which that doesn't surprise me. But I
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: still think Texas A and M likes to play a
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: little bit slower and if Oklahoma State wants to speed
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: it up like that might throw Texas A and M
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: off a little bit. But I'll have to because maybe
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M is changing their identity this year.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: They are still the better team. I don't want anything
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: to do with this game, obviously, but market Reid says
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M and that one. I slightly disagree,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna leave it alone, all right. What else
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: do we have? We have Montana State, by the way,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I was looking to maybe fade them because they played
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: well against Colorado on the road to start the season,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: but then they had a Division two opponent in the
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: middle there and they gotta win. So I think that's
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: gonna kind of alleviate the concerns with like the hangover
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: spot or whatever from Montana State. Now they're hosting Denver here.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Denver's faced the difficult schedules of facing Seattle and washing
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: him both on the road, both games in Seattle, and
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: now they're playing another road game on Montana State. And
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: this one's down from nine and a half to seven
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: and a half though, so the money is still coming
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: in on the Denver side. I don't really have a
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: reid on the game though, Like I would look to
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: fade Montana State if they're immediately coming off that big
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: game that they played against Colorado, But as it stands
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: right now, I don't really have an opinion. Denver. I
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: believe did cover in their last game against Washington. They
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: lost by fourteen, yes twenty seven, a half point underdogs.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: So Denver is coming off at least playing a pretty
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: competitive game against Washington. So you could maybe make some
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: arguments against Denver Lehi in West Virginia, I would lay
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the points with West Virginia here. This is the other
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: one that is close to making my car that hasn't,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: so the two. If I was gonna add those two
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: additional plays, it would be Dartmouth minus the one or
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: whatever or money line and West Virginia minus the points.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Because West Virginia they're coming off that very unimpressive showing.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Like I already mentioned against Campbell, it does worry me
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: that Campbell shot really poorly and they still outrebounded West Virginia.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Although I am fading Campbell today of course as a favorite,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: because I think they're in just a different role. But
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I'm still worried about West Virginia that maybe they're not
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: very good right now. West Virginia again was a fifteen
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: and half point favorite in this one. Campbell's shot terribly
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: in the game, and West Virginia is still almost lost,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: so that's not great. But I still think they're gonna
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: want to bounce back here. They're staying at home. They
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: probably won't take Lee high for granted here because West Virginia.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: You know, when you're a team like West Virginia, you
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: almost lost that other game to an inferior team, You're
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: probably gonna want to focus on that next team, even
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: if you think they are inferior. Yeah, Lee High is
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the opponent here. Lehigh's coming off a win over a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Division two team after Lehighs started the season at Houston.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously they weren't expected to win that game,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and though they actually played fairly well, losing that game
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: only by eighteen, so I'm pretty sure they covered the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: number in that one. Then they were able to get
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: their first win of the season against Valley Forge, George
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Washington whatever. Lee High now going back out on the
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: road to Morgantown though not gonna be that easy to do.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I like West Virginia in this one.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: That's the way that I would play the game if
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: I was gonna do it. Some hesitations whether the line
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: already dropped from nineteen to seventeen and a half, so
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: some money looks like it came in and knocked that
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: line down, although again it looks like the same thing
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: happened with one of my plays. So it's very hard
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: to make reads early on. Man, with some of these
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: games here, it's kind of hard to read the market
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: in some of these. But hopefully we're gonna get these
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: right just reading the situation. So yeah, I that's all
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: I'll say about that. Basically, what was the other a
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: favorite that I had? I already forget, I already forget
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: what the other favorite was that I had? Oh yeah,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: it was a Bowling Green. Yeah, Bowling Green was a
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: little bit more of an under the radar team. Yeah,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens with that. But I don't like
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: that the line moved down on Bowling Green, all right,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: And then my last play is going to be on
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Loyal in Chicago plus the one and a half. That
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: looks like you might have to lay a point. Now.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: This line is on the move, so it's moving in
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: the right direction at least as Loyal Chicago actually was
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point underdog, and they're already
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: a one point favorite here. Yes, North Texas is the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: better team, but I don't think they're that much the
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: better team. Seventy percent of tickets, nine to nine percent
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on Loyola, and I think
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: this is a spot for Loyola to kind of get
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: right here. I would play them, you know, money line
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: whatever minus one plus one plus one and a half
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the line somewhere in that range, still anywhere in the
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: range where you're taking them to you're picking the winner. Basically,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: I think is okay in this one. North Texas we
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: know what they are. They're very good deepfense and they're
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: an extreme slow down team, but they have not been
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: tested yet. Like this is gonna be the most difficult game.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: This game is actually not at loyal Or Chicago. I guess.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: This game is in Hoffman Estate's, Illinois. Guess is this
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: at Loyal Chicago. I don't even know. I don't think
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: it is. But it's basically a semi home game for
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: loyal Or Chicago here it's it's in the Chicago area
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: at the very least. This is not at their home arena.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: So North Texas they've played both their games at home
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: so far, and again they haven't been tested. They face
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the Division two team and the Northwestern State who's really bad.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: So there's nothing you can really take away from what
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: North Texas has done so far. And after this game,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: they got Oregon State and Saint Mary's and they might
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: actually have more focus on those games because Loyola Chicago
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: has not been good in recent years and Oregon State
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: there's still one of those former Pac twelve teams. Saint
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Mary's has been really good. Recently. I mean, they're usually
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: pretty good, so it's possible that North Texas kind of
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: has their eye on those games. I think those are
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: bigger games for them. Loyola kind of under the radar
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: right now because they haven't played well this season. They
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: almost lost at home. Is seventeen and a half point
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: favorites to Cleveland State, and this is a game where
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a bad indicator that Cleveland State completely
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: demolished Loyola on the boards in this game, so I
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: don't love that because the shooting percentages were close in
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the game and Cleveland lost the turnover battle. Cleveland State
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: lost the turnover battle really badly, and Loyola still barely
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: winning the game, although Loyola was pulling away like in
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the second half. They were winning this game by double
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: digits with six something minutes left, and then they I
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: think took their foot off the gas maybe too early,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: So maybe the game was a little bit misleading that
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: way too. So I'm not gonna worry about that too
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: much now. But what happened with Loyola Chicago in their
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: last game. They were twenty one and a half point
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: favorites and they had a terrible shooting game against Mercyhurst.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Loyole only shot thirty seven point seven percent from the
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: field in this game. And in this game, they lost
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: the turnover bound and yes they lost the rebounding battle
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: as well. But I think they're gonna have to bounce
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: back from this man, because, yes, maybe Loyola is not
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: as good as we thought they were to start the season,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: but I don't really see them being this far down
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: after they've actually been an okay team over the last
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: couple of years, like in the mix in their conference.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: At least, it looks like they've been overvalued in the
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: market so far, but I think now we're at least
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: getting them as at a price where they're I don't
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: think being under I don't think they're being overvalued anymore
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: here is they're shifting from being a huge favor to
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: two games to being almost an underdog here. So I
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: think we are at least not getting an overvalued Loyola
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: team anymore. But coming off a loss like that where
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Loyal didn't shoot well, which they could certainly fix that
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: that was a bit of an outlier losing to this
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Mercy Hears team that's new to Division One as of
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: like last year. That's embarrassing, man. So I think Loyola
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be good for them, and maybe it'd be
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: good for them to play somewhere in the area, but
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: not in their home arena right now, just maybe kind
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: of forget about what's going on at home, you know,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: on campus. Basically just get out of there, but still
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: play with your crowd in that area. They should be
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: playing better right now for Sister gen and man rip.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I like Loyola on this one. So that's
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: the other play there, Stacks, what's up man, Thanks for
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: hanging out all right, NHL. We're gonna have a couple
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: of plays here. Oh actually wait, there were a couple
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: other games I was gonna talk about here. My mistake.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: We do have Florida Atlantic and Liberty are playing in
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: this like whatever. This is this round robin tournament which
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: is actually at Liberty. It's being hosted by Liberty. Liberty
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: probably has a little bit of an edge here, not
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: just because they're at home, but they didn't play yesterday
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: and FAU did play yesterday. So both of these teams
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: beat Charleston. So now I think this is the final
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: of this like weird round robin thing. That they're doing
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: here with FAU and Liberty both beat Charleston, so now
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: they're playing each other. But FAU want to back to back,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: whereas Liberty didn't play yesterday, so both teams now used
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: to the arena. I think Liberty does have the edge.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: They're up from six to six and a half here,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: so don't really have much else to say it besides that,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: but the money seems to be coming in on Liberty.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: And then tonight on ESPN at eight thirty pm Eastern
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Washington and Baylor. Kind of an interesting game, A little
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar here. These are alright teams. I mean,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: we don't really know exactly what these teams are yet
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: because Washington's coming off too easy games. They do have
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: their rival Washington State next, but I don't Washington is
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook Baylor on a nationally televised game, man, and
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: this is a big game. Baylor is a big name
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: in basketball, so I think they'll get up for this game.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: But Washington first time traveling away from home I think,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: and out of the Pacific time zone, so kind of
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: difficult to have your first road game here. Baylor difficult opponent. Obviously,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams have any impressive wins so far,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: then that easy opponents so far. But Baylor they're staying
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: at home here, so the travel spot is a bit
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: easier for Baylor. So there are some reasons, like Baylor
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: hero though, the money's coming in against them. Baylor's down
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: from seven and a half to five and a half
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: here seventy one percent take us ninety six percent of
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the cash coming going to Washington, so the money is
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: saying Washington. I really wouldn't want to do it because Washington,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: they are having to travel, like I said, so it
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: makes it a bit difficult first road game. So I
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: kind of think that there's a little bit of an
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: edge maybe towards Baylor in that respect. But Baylor has
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: been the better teams, so they're potentially getting overvalued in
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: the market because Baylor has been that you know, better
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: team recently. Everybody remembers them being in the tournament like
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: virtually every year. Washington not really the case with them,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: So I think Baylor does get a little bit more
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: respect from the public betters right now than maybe they should.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Baylor also is a slow paced team, so asking them
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to lay points is a little bit more difficult tho,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: though you're not asking him to lay that much here.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I think Washington also plays somewhat slow as well, if
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken. So we'll see what happens there, although
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Baylor will almost certainly try to slow the pace down.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Baylor is one of those weird teams where they slow
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: the pace down, but they actually don't play very well defensively,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: so kind of a strange I don't know, like it's
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: just a strange style of play for Baylor there. So
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: I apologize, I'm losing my garment cover here. I'll get
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: it back on my watch later. But yeah, so those
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that game. Let's move to NHL here,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: which I don't even have up right now. Oh, I apologize,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: I hadn't zoomed in on the schedule here NHL. We're
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: gonna have two plays here. I don't know if I
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: want to hit every single one of these games, but
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: I will say Chicago at Detroit in the afternoon here, Chicago,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: they got them, went over Calgary, man, which I thought
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: that was kind of a bad spot for Chicago after
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: they pulled off that nice upset over Vancouver, and now
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: they're finishing a long road trip they won their last
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: two games, they got to go to Detroit. I think
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: it looks like a difficult spot to me for Chicago
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: here and then they have New Jersey when they come
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: back home after this. Sure they're going to try to
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: be focused for Detroit because Detroit's been good so far.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: But I think Chicago might maybe potentially run out of
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: steam a little bit at the end of this road trip.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Detroit is still the better team in Detroit is staying
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: at home and they're in a second game back home,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: and you know, I talk about that type of scheduling
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: spot where I went against Detroit in their game back
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: home because they were in a bad spot returning home.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: As I always talk about, it tends to be a
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: little bit of a distracted spot when you return back home.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: The Rangers have been a very good roun team and
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: that continued last night as the Rangers got shut out
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: yet again at home. And I gave out the Islanders
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: in that game. So we're gonna keep riding that ridiculous
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: home road dichotomy for the Rangers. But that came into
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: play here Rangers were able to beat Detroit. That was
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: a win for us on the show. But now that
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Detroit has had their time, you know, at home, to
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: get stuff done at home, whatever they need to get done.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Throw those distractions out of the way. After losing to
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the Rangers, I think they're gonna refocus here, so I
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: expect a focus Red Wings team here. Probably not good
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: news for a team that might be getting a little
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: bit tired being on the road this long. So I
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: do like Detroit in this one, and the money agrees
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Chicago at fifty two percent of the tickets Detroit up
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: for minus one seventy five to minus one seventy eight,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on Detroit. So I agree
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the market agrees with me. I would play Detroit maybe
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: to win in regulation. If you want to play that one.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Kings Pittsburgh, let's just get into it right now. This
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: will be one of my plays, and we're gonna go
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: with the Kings to win this in regulation. Because the
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: line is really really I mean it's not really really high,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: but it is a little bit too high. So I
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: wanted to knock that price down as they're in like
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the minus one fifty something range on the money line here,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: so you can knock the price down to about plus
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: one hundred and even money to get them to win
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: in regulation. So that's what I'm gonna do, even though
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: I know these regulation plays haven't worked out for me
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: so far. I mean, if we want to make your
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: own minus one puck line, you could do that as well,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: with part of the money on the minus one and
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: a half part of the money on the money line,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: and then if they win by exactly one, you'll push.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: So you could do that too. But I like the
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Kings in the spot, and the Odswigers are telling you something, man,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: with the fact that the Kings are six five and
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: four versus a nine to four and three Pittsburgh team,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: and yet the Kings are getting all this respect in
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: the market. They're the worst record, but they're a minus
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: one to fifty five road favorite here. Well why is that?
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: I think that means that the Kings are a little
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: bit better than they look right now. They've actually been
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: good on the road five one and two. They're not
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: too bad on the road. Pittsburgh is good at home,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I'll give them that four one and one at home,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: but the Kings, they've been definitely more the competitive on
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: the road, So that's good. The Kings are coming off
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: a fairly ugly loss at home five to two to Florida.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: They've lost three of their last four, but those are
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: all pretty difficult opponents Detroit, New Jersey, Winni Bag, Florida. Yes,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: those are all at home. But when things aren't working
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: well at home, sometimes one of the best things that
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: you can do is just leave, get out of home
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: and just focus on hockey. And that's what LA is doing.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: And they've had two days off too to try to
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: disrupt that losing momentum. So I think this is going
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: to be a spot where they're going to be focused.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: And Pittsburgh, I believe, is actually worse than all four
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: of those opponents that I just listed off that LA
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: just faced at home, so I think LA is actually
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: stepping down in class here to face Pittsburgh as well.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: It will be Kemper back in Net, I assume, because
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Forsburg played the last game, so the Kings will have
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: their better goalie in net as well. So things lining
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: up pretty nicely for the Kings here and then on
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: the other side Pittsburgh, I do not like the spot
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: that they're in. They played two big games in a row,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: actually multiple big games in a row. Is they also
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: They've also been traveling all over the places. They went
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: all the way up to Minnesota, Winnipeg, up to Toronto.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: They played tough against Toronto, only losing by one. Came
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: back home for a single home game, beat Washington somehow,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: big win there too, because Washington's been pretty good over
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: the last couple of years. Went back out on the
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: road and they took New Jersey into a shootout, and
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: that was yesterday. So they're on a back to back
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: now with travel coming back from New Jersey to Pittsburgh.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: And I know it's not a huge travel leg, but
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: still it's travel with no days off and they're playing
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: a third game in four days. So while LA was
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: off during that period of time, Pittsburgh did have that
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: trip to New Jersey and played a really tough game.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Now Pittsburgh's back home, they might have a Jari back
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: in net here instead of Silovs, which I don't love
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: either of them, though that they actually have. They both
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: have decent not this year, but even still I don't
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: love either of them necessarily, don't really care which one
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: of them it is. I think the spot's pretty bad.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's a letdown spot. Back to back, third
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: game in four days with travel between the two games
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't set up well for Pittsburgh. But it gets even
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: worse because after Pittsburgh plays this game, they have to
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: go play in Sweden on Friday, so they're gonna have
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: to hit the road and travel at some point. I
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: assume they want to get out there early enough to
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: adjust to the time zone because we have all this
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: fucking international bullshit going on, just like the NFL Berlin
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: game that's going on right now, where I don't know
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: why I have News Nation on right now. I think
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: it's because I put the CW one last night to
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: watch that Oregon State game finish there. That's okay. I
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: don't need sports behind me at all times. Yeah, But Pittsburgh,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I think it's kind of a sandwich spot because that's
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: a big deal. When you get chosen to play in Sweden,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: you get to go out there. It's kind of a showcase.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be playing Nashville out there. Some it's like
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: fuck Sweden, I guess, because it's like, hey, you guys,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: you get the Penguins and the Predators, who are not
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: our best right now, so there you go. But I
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: do think that's gonna set up a bit of a
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: look ahead here. I think the spot sets up way
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: way better for the Kings. The money's agreeing with me,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: the Kings, even though they drop for minus one fifty
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: four to minus one fifty seventy percent of the cash
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: on the Kings fifty four percent of the tickets on
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's the public. Of course, I think we'll tend to
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: side with the team with the better record, especially getting
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: them at an underdog price. It almost looks way too easy,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: but nothing is that easy. Man. We're gonna go with
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: the Kings in regulation in that one. Hopefully we get
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: that done. Silovs is young, yeah, I mean should improve,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I guess, but we're gonna fade well, we'll fade him
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: right now. But I don't think he's gonna be the
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: goalie today anyway. I think it's gonna be Jari Jarry,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: however you pronounce his name. Why. I don't think it
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: is a very good goalie, so we're gonna go against him.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: I still think Kemper is better than either goalie, though,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: at least as it stands right now. All right, continuing
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: with the NHL here, let me see what else do
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: we have. I'm off of the page again. I'm all
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: over the place this morning. Man. I apologize Carolina Toronto.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: This is maybe the best game on the hockey board today.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, both of these teams are pretty good. Toronto's
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: I think under the radar right now. The Toronto, as
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: I pointed out, they have been not performing well this year,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: so I don't know, but they are still an original
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: six team. Carolina is very good. Carolina played yesterday. They
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: beat Buffalo easily, single road game. Now going up to Toronto,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: but it is travel from Carolina up to Toronto. Toronto
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: hasn't exactly been playing well, and Washington is gonna be
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Carolina's next opponents, and they may actually even look ahead,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: as crazy as that might sound, just because Toronto hasn't
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: been playing well recently. So we'll see. Carolina has been
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: alternating between three different goaltenders, so I think maybe Bussy
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: got hurt, so now Cochetkov has been there alternate goalie here.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: It's probably gonna be Anders back in net this time.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: But they've been resting them quite a bit. For Toronto,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, they do still have a winning record though
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: they're still an original six team, so maybe they Carolina
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: will still be focused on Toronto. Toronto is staying at
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: home though they also played yesterday, but they had multiple
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: days off prior to that, and they lost to my
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Boston Bruins yesterday. The Bruins playing all right right now. Man,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: the Bruins on a hot streak, so we'll see. Toronto
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: tends to struggle against the Bruins for whatever reason. Though
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: they do have a revenge game against the Bruins on
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Tuesday in Boston. But they're not gonna overlook Carolina. Carolina
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: is one of the best teams in all of the
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: NHL right now. So to me, I mean, I think
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: both teams are gonna show up here. The money is
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: indicating on Carolina, I mean excusing on Toronto a little bit.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I think I could see the argument basically being Carolina
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: is in a travel spot here in Toronto. Isn't both
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: teams playing yesterday? Toronto maybe in a little bit more
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: of a bounce back spot because they lost yesterday. So
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: I see the arguments for Toronto. I'm not gonna disagree
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: with that. I just don't feel very strongly about it.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Carol line it down for minus one thirty to minus
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: one twenty nine on the money Life fifty eight percent
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: of the tickets seventy two percent of the cash on Toronto,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: so money is coming into Toronto. King's solid on the road,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: not last year, I don't think last year. I think
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: they were much better at home. The Kings were almost
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: unbeatable at home last year, and I don't know if
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: they were really that good on the road, but I
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: used that as part of my handicapping in the playoffs.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: I know I used the Kings. I went with them
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: at home and against them on the road basically when
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: it came to the playoffs more or less, and I
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: think I did okay in that King Eiler series. I
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: forget though. Maybe I wasn't as good as I thought,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: but I know I had at least one win with
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: the Kings at home early in that series. All right.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Utah at Ottawa. Utah of course played yesterday and they
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: were one of our losses, which I'm still pissed about
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: because the game was statistically nowhere near what it looked
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: like on the score or with Uta losing six to two,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Montreal put up like three late goals. I don't know
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: what the fuck happened in that game. Utah was winning
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: the game like on the scoreboard and they were winning
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the game statistically, I don't know, Mantah had a two
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: to one lead in the middle of the game. I'm
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: pissed about it. Now Utah is coming up to that.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: They could be in a bounced back spot traveling from
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Montreal to Ottawa, not an extreme travel leg at the
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: very least, maybe a little bit angry trying to salvage
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: a game on this road trip here, trying to even
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: up the road trip and finish it at two and two.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: So I think we will see a motivated Utah team
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: for Ottawa. Ottawa also played yesterday and they played a
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: fourth straight overtime game, and they're actually returning home from
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: a road trip and they played. They're playing three games
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: in the last four days, so Ottawa was actually in
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: a worse spot here with more travel as well, and
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: again the return home spot. I always talk about how
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: you can overlook that a little bit, and you can
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: tend to overlook your opponent, especially with Utah, even though
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: they got off to a hot start, they've been bad recently.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: So Ottawa maybe in a spot where they're not gonna
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: totally pay attention here. I think they're probably gonna finally
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: arrest o Mark again. Here would be my guests. We'll
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: have to look at that starting goalie website that I
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: usually look at. I'm not gonna play this game, but
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be Mari Lane and then that although he's yeah,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's only played two games this year, so
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: you can't really even figure out how good he's really
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: been this year. He was awful in one of the games.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Did beat my Boston Bruins but lost to a Buffalo
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Omark is obviously the man for Ottawa, and I'm expecting
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: that he's not gonna play in this game because it's
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: a back to back with travel and up next. Ottawa
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: does have Dallas that's a big opponent, and they do
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: have revenge against the Bruins upcoming. Although I mean, they
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: played the Bruins twice already and they're won to one
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: against them, but they did just lose to them, so
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: we'll see. But with all this travel and all these
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: games going into overtime, it's a pretty bad spot for Ottawa.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: They beat Philadelphia yesterday, not that impressive of a win,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: but again they had to put in an effort win
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: that game in overtime. Traveling from Philadelpa. Or yeah, from
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia back up to Ottawa, so Utah with less travel
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: coming in from Montreal. I lean to Utah. And this
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: one the money is agreeing with that. Autowa down for
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: minus one fourteen to minus one ten, sixty percent of
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: the tickets, eighty six percent of the cash on Utah. Yep,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that. Seattle at Dallas, this one
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: is kind of uninteresting. I mean, Dallas is a big favorite,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: and I think they're that way for a reason. Seattle,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: even though the record looks good, I don't think they're
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: that good. Although the money is coming in on Seattle.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Dallas down for minus two thirty six to minus two seventeen,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the tickets on them, sixty two
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Seattle. Seattle just beat Saint
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Louis yesterday, which was a game where I thought Seattle
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: was gonna get caught. But Seattle was in a nice
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: bounce back off of an ugly loss to San Jose
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: and starting a road trip. It's just that I thought
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: they might look ahead to Dallas, but they pulled it
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: off into overtime. And that was with Grubauer and net
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: last night for Seattle, so they will have their main
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: goalie back in this game. Decord they were saving him
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: for Dallas, so at least there is that for Seattle.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Dallas will have Ought and during net though, I believe,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: even though he's played two games in a row. Well,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: actually I don't know, because they're on a back to back.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: They beat Nashville on the road yesterday, so it is
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I guess a little bit of a weird spot of
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: the Dallas Nashville. Not a huge travel amount there, but
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: still something they did use Aught and during that game yesterday.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Will they use him again? I'm thinking they might, because
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: sometimes they do use him multiple games in a row
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: like that, and even sometimes on the back to back,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: although they haven't had a back to back. Actually they
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: did have one back to back this year and they
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: actually used to Smith in the back leg of it.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: So maybe they will actually be using to Smith in
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: this one. And maybe that's some of the reason why
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: you're getting some of the money on Seattle there. If so,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Seattle does have a little bit of a goaltending edge there,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: at least. Calgary at Minnesota is basically the battle between
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: two teams that are not as good as their records. Look,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: even though Calgary's record sucks, I think they're one of
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: the worst teams in hockey. But they might be able
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: to focus here because they lost in a bad game,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: a shutout to Chicago at home. They get to go
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: out on the road now and focus on hockey, so
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: maybe they will do just that kind of a bounce
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: back spot for Calgary here. Minnesota is not as good
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: as people think they are. Minnesota's coming out of a
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: nice win over the Islanders that beat me the other
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: night with Wallstead in net. Minnesota is gonna have Gustafson
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: back and Net here, who is their better goalie. But
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: even so, they're returning home from a little bit of
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: a road trip and they went to Carolina and the
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Islanders not a huge road trip, but trying to do
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: that all in the span of three days, So third
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: game and four days, all different cities, fourth game in
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: six days actually with travel in between in the middle
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: of those in those two middle games there, So the
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: spot doesn't set up as well from my perspective for
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: Minnesota here. So I actually do like Calgary in this game.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: The money's agreeing. Minnesota is all all the way down
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: from minus one seventy to minus one fifty five, fifty
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: one percent of the tickets on Minnesota, seventy four percent
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Calgary. Not a play for me,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: but I agree with the Calgary side and that one.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Oh God, Nate, you're singing deep in Deep in the
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: hot of Texas. Yeah, I forget how that song really goes.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not a Texan obviously, but yeah, you like the
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: other Stars, dude, the Stars, they should still be the
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Minnesota north Stars, man. I mean, interestingly, Stars does make
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: sense for being in Texas because they're the lone star state,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: and maybe they should be the lone Stars. But they
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: were the Minnesota north Stars if you remember, if you're
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: as old as I am, so they were the original
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Minnesota team basically, at least as far as my perspective, like,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: they were the team in Minnesota when I was young
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: and whatever. And then they moved to Dallas, so I
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: remember the Minnesota north Stars, man. And then Minnesota got
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: the Wild as an expansion team later on. All right,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Colorado at Vancouver, Colorado. I mean, they've been excellent this year.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: They only have one regulation loss. Colorado. They've been really good,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: but maybe the stock has reached kind of its peak
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: on Colorado because look at what they did yesterday. Dude,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: they beat Edmonton nine to one. I mean, come on, man, Edmondon.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows Edmondton's good, winning the Western Conference last two
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: years in Colorado on the road. Just went in there
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and smoked them nine to one yesterday. Looks like pretty
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: much a classic letdown spot the Colorado's in here. I know,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: they had a lot of rest before going to Edmonton.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: They were off for three days prior to that, so
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: they're not going to be a tired team here. But
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: they got to be feeling really really good about themselves
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: after that blowout win. Now they get to step down
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: in class and face this mediocre Vancouver team. Vancouver is
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: coming off a win themselves yesterday against Columbus. They're staying
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: at home, so the travel spot's a little bit better
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: for them, And they did have rest prior to that
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: game too, one day fewer than Colorado did, but still rest.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: Plus they're not traveling, so this sets up better for
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Vancouver in my opinion. The money is agreeing with that too,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Although Colorado initially went up for minus one sixty five
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: to minus one eighty eight fifty seven percent of tickets
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: on Colorado, sixty seven percent of the cash coming in
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: on Vancouver. Obviously, I agree with that. I like Vancouver
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: in this one. Haven't made it a play though, so
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, the last game on the
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: board is my other play. I'm tempted to make this
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: a play. Uh the one Like one of my hesitations
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: was that the money looked like it was disagreeing with
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: me at first. We're gonna add this as a player,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: We're gonna stay away from it. I don't know. I
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: mean again, you gotta think Colorado is feeling really really
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: good about themselves, and probably they're actually gonna switch goalies here.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Blackwood has been their backup going he only played one
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: game for them so far, and let's let's actually take
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: a look and see if it is gonna be Blackwood here,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: because they lost that game to San Jose in his
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: one game and net let me see if it's announced
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: or anything like that for Colorado here, it looks like
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: it is supposed to be Blackwood and Net here against
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: lancoln And for Vancouver. So lancln And is Vancouver's second
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: string goalie as well, though, because they're on the back
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: to back here. But Blackwood, I mean he's had only
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: one game so far this year, so he's kind of
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: coming in cold. And actually lancoln And has played more
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: games than Demco the last couple of days. I don't know, man,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: I mean they're both kind of alternating. I don't think
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: there's that much of a downgrade for Vancouver between those
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: two guys. It's this is definitely tempting. I do like
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Vancouver here, and then who does Colorado have next? Let
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: me say, because they did analyze this earlier on the
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: market read kept me off initially. Oh, Colorado is Anaheim
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: next when they come back home? And Anaheim has been
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: really really doing well so far this year, man, so
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: maybe Colorado will actually be looking ahead. You know what,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: let's add of play. We're gonna go with Vancouver. I
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a money line play on Vancouver.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: But let's see what the money line price is here.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Colorado is a heavy favorite here. But let me see
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: what's the money line that we can get here? Avalanche Ooh,
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: it's at one sixty five. What's the spread? We're gonna
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: do one of these split bets here. We're gonna make
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: it a plus one puck line to kind of alleviate
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: some Hold on, I'm gonna do the calculation real quick. Here,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: let me see here, calculator. I apologize for this because
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: I'm doing this on the fly. Here. Oh I have
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: this in a different tab too, But whatever, we're gonna
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: do this to win the typical three hundred. So I'm
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: just gonna do that just to see. Actually, you know what,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it to win one hundred, just to
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: see what the split is gonna be more easily, what
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: the percentages are. So you can get the plus one
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: and a half at minus one fifty on this, and
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: then the money line on this is plus one sixty five.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: It looks like, so this is saying you want to
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: put sixty percent basically on the minus one fifty and
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: thirty five percent on the Well wait a minute, what
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: sixty percent? Hey? Wait what that doesn't make sense, does
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: it now? I'm confused. Oh no, it's to win one hundred.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: That's why I'm like, wait, what am I doing? You're
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: not risking one hundred, You're risking more than one hundred
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: to win a hundred? What am I saying? So you
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: actually create odds on this theoretical plus one puck line.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: If you do it this way, but the split bet,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: the odds come out to plus one of four, so
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: that's actually pretty solid. So yeah, that's the way I
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: would do this to get that price in a better
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: price range. I mean, you could go balls to the
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: wall and play the plus one sixty five money line
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: and then you don't have to put as much at risk.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: If you want to do that, I'm not against it,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna do it more so that if they
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: come within one, you're gonna at least well, if they
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: come within one, you're gonna push the bet. But of
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: course if they if they win, you're gonna win the
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: whole thing. Anyways, you're I mean, you're putting more at
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: risk by doing that. Wait, so is there a reason
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: to do this then? Or should we do what have
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I been thinking all this year? Should we just play
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: the money line here and then because you put less
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: money at risk? No, I guess you mitigate the risk
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: by the fact that if you do this plus one
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: puck line approach, if they lose by one, you don't
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: lose any money at all. That Yeah, I'm an idy
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: I'm an idiot. That's why, because if you play it
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: on the money line, you'll lose your entire bet if
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: you do that. So yeah, we're gonna do it this way,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: all right. So yeah, we're gonna call this. What are
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: we calling this year? This is Vancouver plus one and
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: a half at plus one fifty and excuse me, at
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty and plus one sixty five on the
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: money line. Is that what it was? Yet? All right,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do that. All right, there's the Vancouver play,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: and then the last play in the NHL is gonna
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: be this last game. We're gonna be on Winnipeg here,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go money line on Winnipeg on this one.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: We're gonna fade this Anaheim duck team. Man. Then I'm
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: still not completely buying and the oddsmakers are not buying
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: it either. So if you're looking at this game, you
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: gotta look at this and think, well, wait a minut,
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: why is Anaheim's ten three and one and also for
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: to one and oh at home against Winnipeg who's nine
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: to five and oh, which isn't bad by the way, obviously,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: and four to two and oh, which also is not
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: bad on the road. So Winnipeg's been good, and they've
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: been pretty good on the road too. Why is Winnipeg
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: laying a price on the road against this Anaheim team
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: that has a better record. Well, the Oswekers are still
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: telling you they're not totally buying Anaheim right now, and
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna fade them in this spot. I like how
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: this sets up for Winnipeg a little bit more Anaheim's public,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: because of course they are eighty two percent of tickets.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: They look like a very rare, dreaded public home underdog here,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: which you don't usually see that. Usually the public likes favorites.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: I know the public doesn't play NHL that much, but
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of tickets eighty four percent of the
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: cash on Anaheim. So the money seems to be coming
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: in slightly on Anaheim right now, with a lie dropping
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: for minus one forty five to one thirty six on Winnipeg.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: I still don't really buy it, though, Like I think
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: by the time this game tipped, I think you might
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: see Winnipeg getting more of the cash. I mean, again,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: there's a reason why their favor here. The public seems
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: like they're coming in on the Anaheim side, and that
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: is something I will definitely want to fade. When you
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: see the public coming in on a home team that
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: turns out to be an underdog, that's definitely a red
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: flag to me. But looking at the scheduling spot, I
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: think it's a fine spot for Winnipeg. Here. Winnipeg, they
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: lost to San Jose on Friday, so you got to
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: think they're really pissed off right now. They're on to
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: two to start the road trip and they scored one
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: goal so far. Hello books, Meninette. He probably will be
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: again in this one because it's a big game against Anaheim.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: They may rest him in their next game. But he's
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: like the best goalie in the league man, and this
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: has not been his problem. The fact that Winnipeg lost
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: at LA and then at San Jose. Winnipeg just hasn't
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: been able to score in those last couple of games.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: But they've improved their offense last couple of years, so
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I expect they're scoring to come back. They had a
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: decent amount of rest between those two games. Bad showing
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: against San Jose. Losing that game, you know they're going
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: to be in a bounced back spot. If for losing
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: that game, Winnipeg actually dominated the faceoff percentage in that game.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: They had more shots and more hits in the game.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: So Winnipeg outplayed San Jose in that game, So they
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: were better than the scoreboard. Look, we all know Winnipeg's
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: better than San Jose, there's no question about that. Coming
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: into Anaheim. Here, Anaheim, I know they've been in a role.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: I know they're beating all these good teams. But like
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: I said, at some point, there has to be a
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: letdown spot, and I think it might come here because
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at these wins that they've reeled off
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: recently against Florida, Detroit, New Jersey, Florida, all those games
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: at home, and yes, I know they're at home again here.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: They went on the road beat Dallas, but again they
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: allowed five goals against Dallas, and then they beat Vegas
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: in overtime yesterday. So Anaheim is on a back to back,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: they're on a third game in four days, all in
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: different cities, and they're returning over from a road trip.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I know it was a quick road trip, they've only
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: been away since Thursday. But still, I don't think the
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: spot sets up very well. Man. I think at this
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: point it could be a letdown spot here that was
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: a big win in Vegas. They did a Marazak and
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: net there, so I know the top goalie, Dostal Dostel
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: will be back in net here, So yeah, that is true.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: But they do have Colorado coming up next, and that's
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: a huge game because Colorado their record is really good.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying Anaheim is gonna overlook Winnipeg because Winnipeg's
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: record is also good. But at some point they have
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: to have some sort of down spot here, and I
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be here on the back to back.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: They haven't had a back to back throughout this entire
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: win streak that they've had. They've had a decent amount
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: of rest between all these games, and now finally they
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: don't and they have travel here. A lot of that
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: win streak was at home as well. I know they're
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: back at home here, but with travel here now, I
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: don't like it. Man, with travel with no days off,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: I think Winnipeg is definitely the right side here. We're
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Winnipeg in that one. So three hockey
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: plays there. Mike Madonna, Yeah, I remember him. It's it's
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: because he's sexy, right Nate, which I think he kind
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: of is he was probably like rated the most handsome
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: hockey player or something. Blackwood is your goalie in fantasy.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man again, I think he's only played
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: one game so far this year. I mean, he's fairly
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: experienced goalie, I think because he did play last year
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: for both Colorado and I believe San Jose. Is that
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: where he was last year? But I don't know, man NBA.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: I don't have any plays today, so I don't know.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Houston at Milwaukee is a big game in the afternoon.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Houston is actually favored in this game, so Osbeger's kind
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: of telling you something with Houston being a favorite, even
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: though these teams both have pretty good records and people
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: know that both these teams are good. Houston's up from
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite to a four
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: point favorite. Seventy nine percent of tickets only fifty four
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, though, so Houston is
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: public with the money kind of coming in against them. Now,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: we gotta see, is there an injury here? Is that
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: why Houston is that much of a favorite? Let me see.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Yannis is a game time decision, so I don't know.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's always listed as a game time decision.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: He is probable, so that's not factoring into the line there.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: So Houston being a favorite seems just legitimate, which is crazy.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Houston is that good? I guess now, Houston, they did
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: just lose to San Antonio, so I actually kind of
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: disagree with the market here. I kind of agree with
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Houston here. I think it looks weird that you're laying
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: points with Houston here. They just took a loss of
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: San Antonio, so I think they might be in a
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: bounced back spot here. But they did lose a win streak,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: so I worry about it a little bit because when
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: a team loses a win streak sometimes it does hang
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: them over into the next game. You know, they kind
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: of got up for that game against San Antonio because
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: it was a big Texas game. So I could see
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: both arguments here. I Milwaukee, they're staying at home, but
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: they did just crush Chicago at home, so you could
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: argue that maybe they're in a little bit of a
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: letdown spot off of that. So again, I could see
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: it going going both ways. The market is saying to
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: take the points with the Bucks. I think it looks
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: almost too easy to take the points of the Bucks.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: Given what the team's records are. So it's a weird game.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: I'll stay away from my opinion in that game was
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: slightly towards Houston, but I don't want anything to do
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: with it. Brooklyn at New York, I mean, this is
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: just awful. I mean, Brooklyn, Yeah, they should get up
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: for games against the Knicks, because the Knicks are the
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: you know, staple team in New York. Brooklyn's kind of
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: the bastard child that originally was in New Jersey. You know,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: New York has the more solidified fan base the Knicks too,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: It's not even close. But so I think that does
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: motivate Brooklyn when they play New York. But they can't
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: win every single time. Obviously, Brooklyn probably the worst team
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: of the NBA this year. They did just take another
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: loss after they got that win for us on the
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Show against Indiana. They lost to Detroit. Not shocking obviously.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Now they're going back out on the road to face
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: in New York, a though obviously they're only they're only
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: traveling between those two from Brooklyn to Manhattan, so obviously
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: not a lot of travel there. The Knicks coming off
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: just slaughtering Minnesota, that was a big win. That makes
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: the Knicks look really good. And that was of course
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: that little old Karl Anthony Towns versus Julius Randall thing there,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: but they were involved in that trade before last year.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: That's a big win. I think that does make the
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Knicks look quite good. They've had a bunch of days
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: off now, but the fact they were on a three
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: game win streak, I think having multiple days off actually
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: is not that helpful because you don't really have anything
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: to work on during that break. It'll give you rest,
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: but you don't have anything to fix. I think they
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: might come into this game just thinking they're gonna easily
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: beat Brooklyn. So if I was gonna play this, I
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: would take the points with Brooklyn. But the money is
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: totally disagree with me on this too. Seventy four percent
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the Nets, seventy three percent of the
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: cash on the Knicks. We're up to a fifteen and
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite, So the money's saying the Knicks.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with it. But not a play. I mean,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: I don't have any plays in the NBA today. Boston
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: at orlandom Celtics not off to a great start. I mean,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams really are, but Orlando's trying to
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: change their identity this year is just really weird. But
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: this is a zigzag spot because the Celtics did just
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: lose at Orlando by double digits, and this game was
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: actually closer than it looked on the scoreboard. The Celtics
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: are actually winning this game pretty late in the game.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: Then they completely fell apart in the second half of
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter and this game was tied. Or Celtics
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: were up one. Actually it was six minutes left. The
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Celtics were winning the game, and then they fell apart.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: Orlando did shoot kind of ridiculously in the game forty
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: seven point two percent from three. That's a major outlier.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Fifty percent from the field. A little bit of an
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: outlier there. So you gotta think the Celtics playing the
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: same game again. The line is almost the same at
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Orlando around three. You got to expect the Celtics are
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: going to be the team to make the adjustments. The
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: final score was not really indicative of what happened in
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: that game. Orlando had a bit of an outlier shooting game.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the Celtics to zigzag and bounce
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: back here. You're actually getting a little bit more value
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: with the Magic at four here at this time. But
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: so again I'm disagreeing with the market. Seventy seven percent
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the Celtics, seventy one percent of the
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: cash on Orlando, I don't buy it. I think it's
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: kind of a classic zigzag spot. I would take the
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: points with the Celtics, but and hopefully because they are
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: my team, but I'm not expecting that much from them
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: this year obviously. But again, it's not a game that
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: I really want to get involved in. I mean, that's
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: the only angle that I see with that one. Oklahoma
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: City bounced back after their first loss. They got to
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: blowout win at Sacramento. Now they're finishing the road trip,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: but they're actually traveling from the Pacific time zone with
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: only one day off, all the way to Memphis. This
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: is kind of a bad spot, I think for the Thunder.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: And they do have to face the Warriors and then
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: the Lakers on Tuesday and Wednesday, so it is possible
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: they overlook this Memphis team that's just been kind of
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: a mess. But Memphis is chaotic, like they can beat
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: really good teams and they could lose to really bad teams.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: Memphis did just end that loss streak that they had,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: so I think that's good for Memphis. There's staying at home.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: They had a four game loss streak, and they beat Dallas,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: which is not gonna make them over confident because Dallas
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: has also been bad. But I think what that will
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: do is it'll give Memphis just the right amount of
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: confidence coming into this game and break that losing momentum.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: So I would take the points with Memphis in this
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: one if I was gonna play it money again disagreeing
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: with me, Thunder up from nine and a half to
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: ten and a half, seventy percent of the cash on them,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets on the Grizzlies. But I
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: would lean to the Grizzlies in this one. So again,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: markut Reid against me in literally every game. It's crazy.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Philadelphia, which I think Jeffrey was talking about
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: this game. Well, one of you guys, I think it
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: was Jeffrey. Right. Detroit off to a seven and two start.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe they look too good, but they're coming out of
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: an easy win over Brooklyn. I mean Detroit said a
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: somewhat easy schedule, though, I mean this win streak that
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: they're currently on. The wins were against Orlando, Dallas, although
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: that was in Mexico City, Memphis, Utah, and Brooklyn, so
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: that's not a very impressive run of aims there. So
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: they are stepping up in class a little bit to
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: have to face Philadelphia here. Philadelphia coming off beating Toronto
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: at home, which was yesterday though, so they're on a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: back to back, but they did a multiple days off
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: before that. Yeah, they do a Boston again next. They're
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: playing Boston so many times earlier in the season, it's crazy,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: and that will be revenged because they did just lose
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: to Boston on Halloween. But are they gonna overlook Detroit,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: who's seven to two to start the season. I don't
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: really think so. I think the stock is probably a
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: bit too high on Detroit right now with this recent run.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: So again I'm gonna disagree with the market. The pisses
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: are up from two and a half to four. Here,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of tickets on the Sixers, ninety four
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Pistons. I would agree
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: with the Sixers in this game, and so I'm disagreeing
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: with the market all over the place. Man and of
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: course you do have to look at what the injury
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: situations are gonna be. Tobias Harris looks like he's out
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: for Detroit, so that's one of their guys. I don't
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: know if he's played this year though, I think he has, right,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: he's a little bit older now, but yeah, he's been
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: playing this year, so he's out. So that's one injury
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: for Detroit here that is of some concern Sixers. It's
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: always embiid like is he gonna play or is he not?
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: He's a game time decision again here he gets a
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: lot of rest. He played yesterday, so it is possible
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: that he gets rested here and maybe that's part of
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: the reason why the line is where it is. But
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, even if he does, I would probably lean
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: to taking the points with Philly there because Embing, I mean,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: he's got a bad knee and whatever. Indiana at Golden State.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: Golden State's down from a thirteen app point favorite to
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: a twelve and app point favorite. Ninety six percent of
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: the tickets and cash, so they're very very public. Indiana
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: is having to come in off playing Denver though, and
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: they played Denver yesterday, so they're having to go back
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: to back elevation out to the Pacific coast. That's not
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: easy to do. Even though they had some rest before
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: they started the road trip against Denver, they're probably gonna
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: show up or try because it's the Warriors and they're
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: trying to salvage the last game of the road trip.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: The Warriors just faced Denver as well on Friday, and
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: now they're returning over a road trip. But they do
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: have a day off at least to return home, and
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: their only other game on the road trip was a
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: close trip to Sacramento, so really it was just a
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: road trip pretty much just to Denver and now they're
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: coming back. But it's possible they overlook Indiana because they
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: do have Oklahoma City up next, so Golden State might
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to Oklahoma City. But they did actually
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: lose at Indiana back on November first, so that may
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: keep Golden State motivated here because they lost Indiana. But
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: even if they show up and they're gonna want to
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: win this game, it doesn't mean they're gonna cover the number.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, I mean again, I don't
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: I would definitely not want to lay a highly public
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: favorite like this big favorite like this, but I don't
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: even know if I have an opinion on this one,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean, the market is kind of
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: saying you should take the points of the Pacers. There's
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: no way I'm gonna do that on a back to
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: back though, And I think the Warriors might show up
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: because they did lose the Pacers earlier, so I could
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: see the arguments for maybe laying it with the Warriors there.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: You gotta see what's going on with the Warriors injury
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: situations though, because Curry has been out recently, he's a
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: game time decision. Horford is a game time decision. Indiana,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: of course, we know has a ton of injuries. Top
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: Bend looks like he's not coming back basically this season
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: into one until later in the season. Mathern is still out,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: so some injuries there, and of course Halliburton probably missing
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: the entire season. So yeah, and then the final game
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: on the board is te Wolves and Kings. The tee
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: Wolves are five and a half point favorite. Kings look
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: like they're a public home underdog right now eighty eight
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets and cash. I would not buy that.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Sacramento is getting public action here against the tea Wolves,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: even though the t Wolves are only five and four. Still,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: I think the t Wolves have this perception of a
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: pretty good team, and they are. They did just bounce
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: back after that ugly loss in New York, even though
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: they were returning over from a road trip. They absolutely
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: slaughtered Utah. Now they're going back out on the road.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: Usually you are focused when you start a road trip.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: They have momentum here, so I don't think it's necessarily
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Minnesota. Sacramento only at three and
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: six coming in off of they're staying at home, excuse me,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: off a blowout lost to Oklahoma City, and that was
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: after they beat Golden State the game before that. Sacramento
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: did Zach Levine looks like he's missed some games here.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it looks like he may be
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: playing though, so I don't know. Maybe he just he's
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: just had some bad games where he wasn't on the
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: stat sheet. Sa Bonus is the guy you got to
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: look at for Sacramento here because he's been out. He's questionable.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: He has not played since the third, so you gotta
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: see if he's gonna be back in the lineup. If
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: he comes back, then it kind of becomes a reverse
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: injured player spot to Sacramento too, because he is their
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: best player basically, So if he comes back, I think
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: that's a strike for Sacramento. The lines seems to be
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: indicating that he might not be playing today though. With
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: the Twls at five and a half, yeah, I mean,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the Twolves side here, and I
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: would like it if Sabonis is gonna come back and
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: then the line, well, the line would move further towards
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves or no, the line would move towards
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: the Kings. What am I saying if Sabonis comes back. Yeah,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: so you'll get a better number on the t Wolves
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: if Sabonis comes back. So that would be my recommendation
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: in that game is wait, see if Sabonis is gonna play,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: and then if he does, the lines should move back
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit towards the Kings and then you can
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: come in and take Yeah, take the t Wwls at
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: a lower price. Anyway, that's gonna do it. Man, I
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: play sitting one more time. Go check out my NFL show.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: But we have the Miami Dolphins plus the points, Baltimore
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: Ravens minus the points, and in the night game the
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: Chargers minus the points. College basketball, we have Western Michigan
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: plus eight, Bowling Green minus the points Loyol Chicago Somewhere
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: around a pickham price hockey, we have the sixty line
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: on the LA Kings to win in regulation. Get the
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: price down on that, Vancouver and make your own plus
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: one puck line on that one, and Winnipeg money line
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: and no NBA final, NFL read real quick here. The
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: Falcons are tied with the Colts right now, by the way,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: So I think I did wind up taking the Falcons
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: plus the six and a half or whatever it was,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: even though I recommended kind of against that a little bit,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: just because the number was on the key side of
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: seven or the right side of the key number. But
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: Falcons actually are up fourteen to thirteen now, so I
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: think in my ESPN pick them, I do have the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: Falcons plus the points in that one. But we'll see
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: what happens there. I am a cult fan, though, so
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: I'm at least rooting for the Colts, so the fact
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: the Falcons are up by one kind of skews skews
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: it back towards, you know, being kind of off of
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: that key number of seven. Now, the market read looks
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: like there is money coming now back on the Jets
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit, taking the plus two, although I know
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: and pick them the Jets are a favorite, but it's
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: kind of a pick the winner price. Margret Reid is
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: saying the Jets. I know my situational read was kind
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: of saying Browns a little bit, but it wasn't that strong,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: so I won't disagree with the Jets in that one.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: For the final market read here slight lean, I guess
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: that way market read, of course, I wasn't going to
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: change my opinion on Saints plus the points. I agree
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: with that side. Dolphins, of course one of my plays.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: The market read is shaping up correctly on that one.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: Market Reed is still saying Jaguars against the Texans, even
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: though my initial impression was kind of the opposite of that.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: A lot going on in that game to try to
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: figure out man, so maybe the market is the way
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: to go there. Market Reed is kind of saying the
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: Jaguars right now, although I think the price in Pickum
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit worse, but it still might
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: be kind of a pick the winner situation there. Though.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Ravens look like there's still even though they're a little
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: bit of a public side. It looks like the Ravens
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: are still getting the actual money too, so hopefully that's
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: right because that's one of my plays. Money is coming
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: in on the Buccaneers, I do agree with that side.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: I would lean to that side. Money is coming in
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: on the Bears, but I still disagree with the Bears.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Giants in that game.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Money is still coming in slightly on the Seahawks in
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: the four PM slate, but I disagree with that too.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: We'll see if the late market reads on those kind
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: of shape up the way that I expect, because the
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: cash percentage on those is on the public side right
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: now and it's not that much of a disparity, so
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: we'll see how that. You could argue that the same
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: as the case with the Ravens, but I'm relying on
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: my situational reads here. I would take the Cardinals plus
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: the points in that one. The money is saying the
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: Lions even though they're heavily public, and that one I
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: struggle with because I do think the Lions are in
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: a big revenge spot, so I do expect them to
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: show up. The question is really just the number, and
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: I do think the number is a little bit too high,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: but I don't know, man. I mean, I'm not gonna
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: knock you if you want to lay the points with
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: the Lions, you know, in your pit gums and whatever.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Even though they're heavily public side fifty to take a
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of cash on the Rams. The money
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: is still indicating on the Rams a bit, and I
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: think on ESPN the lines still like three and a half,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: so I think the Rams probably make sense there. The
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: money's agreeing with my Chargers play still, so I obviously
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: I agree with that. I like that one and tomorrow night.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: The money is still indicating on the Eagles for now,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: but as you know, I like the Packers in that game.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: We'll see if I wind up getting there with a play.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: It remains to be seen, but that's gonna do it.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys, I appreciate it, and learn it tone on Twitter,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: and learn a tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: channel here, man, give me good comments, give me a
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: good review on Apple and Spotify. Listen over there. That
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: helps me out as well. Covered in you because my
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: yuke channel on YouTube, so you can go check that
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: out and then page round dot Com, Slash, learn It, Toad, Bonus, Uke, Spotify,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: feed There and requests. Let's have a good day today, mail,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: Let's get some wins. We got a bunch of plays today. Again,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: this is what happens to college basketball season. We had
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: I think thirteen plays yesterday and we have nine today.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: It's a grind, but hopefully we're being selective in the
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: right ways and hopefully we're gonna get some of these plays.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now. Peace, guys, M.