Latest / The Dutch Investors / #67 | Lessons from the Wright Brothers | Patience, progress & the compounding of conviction

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#67 | Lessons from the Wright Brothers | Patience, progress & the compounding of conviction · The Dutch Investors

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine an invention so monumental it changes the world forever.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: How we connect, how we talk to people, how we fight wars and do business.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: It drives a century of stock market returns, sitting alongside the wheel and electricity as a true human achievement.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Now imagine the world ignores it.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: This episode is about that investigation and what we can learn from it as investors.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: So let me start with a true story.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: It starts on a cold morning in December 1903 with two brothers from Dayton, Ohio, who ran a little bicycle shop.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: On a remote beach in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, Orville and Wilbur Wright were about to attempt something humanity had only ever dreamed of.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: A man-made machine flying under its own power.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's hard to overstate what a monumental event this was.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: The airplane fundamentally changed how we fight wars, how we do business, and how we connect to one another.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's no exaggeration to say that this single invention played a massive role in creating the returns we've seen in the stock market over the last century.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Without a doubt, the airplane belongs in the conversation for the most important invention of all time.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Right alongside the wheel, the printing press, electricity, or the internet.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: And yet, for all its revolutionary power and potential, the world barely reacted.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: You would think the news of the first controlled flight would send shockwaves across the globe.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: But the world barely noticed.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: The New York Times made no mention of the eight on December 17th.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Or the 18th.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Or the 19th.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: 20th?
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: By December 22nd, the Wright brothers had already completed 19 successful flights.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yet the newspapers still hadn't said a word.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: Two years later, the New York Times even quoted a leading German aviation expert who confidently declared.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: And you know the incredible part?
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: That quote was published after the Wright brothers had already completed dozens of public flights, circling in plain sight over Dayton, Ohio.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: When a local paper eventually covered the story, it got a dismissive headline saying, Dayton Boys solve problem.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: A world-changing invention was dismissed as little more than a science fair project.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: The only editor who gave the brothers any attention later admitted it was out of pity.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: He felt sorry for the two men, convinced they were wasting their lives on what he called a ridiculous toy.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: The biggest truths often start small and are easy to dismiss.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: The future is rarely announced with a trumpet blast.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: The Wright brothers weren't the richest inventors.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: They weren't even the most qualified, but one thing they did have, more than anyone else, was patience.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: They simply outlasted everyone else, spending years testing, failing, and adjusting.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: We often forget that failure is not a dead end.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's a necessary part of growth, of learning, of doing business.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: The most successful people have failed a million times, but we only see their single success.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: The Wright brothers understood this like no one else, and even after their initial success, they kept going when the world ignored them.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: We like to think innovation is about a stroke of genius or a brilliant idea, but more often than not it's about grit, the ability to keep going long after others have already given up.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: And this is the exact same path to success in investing.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's not about finding a single hot stock, the next big AI company, but it's mostly about long-term enduring drawdowns, navigating market cycles, not losing at all, staying committed to your process and conviction.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Like the Wright brothers, tuning their wings, your returns come from sticking to your chosen system.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Many investors love to call themselves long-term investors or long-term equity analysts.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: But when they're pressed, when their back is against the fence, they often mean just a couple years or a couple months.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: History says this is still a short-term gamble.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: A look at the SP 500 proves that if you only hold for a couple of years, your outcomes are essentially a coin toss.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: True, true long-term investing doesn't begin until you've held for 10, 20, or even 30 years.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's when the sheer power of compounding, the financial equivalent of a liftoff, truly swings the odds in your favor.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: The real risk is you, your patience, your psychology.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: We often think the greatest risks in investing come from somewhere else, from the economy, from central banks, management making stupid decisions, taking on too much debt, or an unexpected black swan event.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: We spend so much time worrying about things we can't control, we forget that the real risk is closer to home.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Here's an insight I heard from Morgan Housell.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: The single greatest risk to your investing success isn't the market, it's your own behavior.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: And that is actually the most empowering truth in all of finance.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: And sounds very simple, but it's really hard.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: While you can't stop the next recession, you have complete control of your own patience, your own psychology, your discipline, and your ability to stay the course.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: This is the ultimate competitive advantage you possess.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: As the story of the Wright Brothers shows, that one factor you can control happens to be the only one that really matters.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: The Wright Brothers weren't taken seriously for years after solving one of history's greatest problems.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: But they understood a truth that few others did.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Greatness, just like wealth, compounds slowly.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: So next time you've done your homework and you believe you're right about a company that is currently out of favor, remember their lesson.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: Your job is simple.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Be right, stay patient, and sit tight.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's it for today.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk to you next time.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: And like always, stay curious, keep learning, and happy investing.