Latest / King Dems Podcast | Growth Mindset, Leadership, AI and Business Insights / How Leaders Use AI and Foresight to Future-Proof Business with Tony Hunter
Transcript
- 0:00We are like, ladies and gentlemen, you want again
- 0:03welcome to the Kingdom's podcast.
- 0:05And today I've got with me a very, very important guest
- 0:10fighting out of Brisbane, Australia.
- 0:13Mick. Welcome, Tony.
- 0:15The future is Haunter. How are you today, Tony?
- 0:23Good, Adamola, how are you? Very well, thank you.
- 0:27Very well, thank you. And of course, you know, I very
- 0:30much appreciate having you on the podcast today.
- 0:32There's something I always say that when a person shares their
- 0:35time with you, they're sharing their life with you because the
- 0:38SI unit for measuring life is time.
- 0:41So thank you once again for sharing your life and your time
- 0:44with us today. And of course, you need to sit
- 0:47back while we read your flowers to you.
- 0:50So, Champions, today's conversation is not about food,
- 0:54it's about the future of survival.
- 0:56Meets Tony Hunter, Global food futurist, strategic foresight
- 1:01advisor. A man who has spent over 3
- 1:04decades at the intersection of food, technology and innovation,
- 1:08Tony does not just study trends, he translates exponential change
- 1:14into strategic decisions that determine whether businesses
- 1:17survive or disappear. From advising global giants like
- 1:21PepsiCo and KFC to shaping boardroom conversations on the
- 1:26future of food systems, Tony's work to lend his leaders to stop
- 1:30reaching, reacting and start designing the future as
- 1:36philosophy is simple but powerful.
- 1:39If you do not know where you're leading, any future will take
- 1:43you there. This episode is a master class
- 1:46in mindset, strategy, and technology reshaping that the
- 1:51world eats. Tony, you once again.
- 1:54Welcome to the Kingdom's podcast.
- 1:58Wow, wow. It's a great well, it's a
- 2:00pleasure to be here. Thank you very much.
- 2:03We're gradually Teddy to a futurist podcast.
- 2:06We had the number one futurist on the podcast a few days ago.
- 2:10And of course, we have a number 2 and award on the podcast.
- 2:13And of course, shout out to your colleague Ronnie William #20 on
- 2:19the podcast as well. So we are gradually becoming our
- 2:24futurist. And of course, we also had Steve
- 2:30Brown, I think about two weeks ago.
- 2:32The Brown is the ex chief futurist for Google DeepMind and
- 2:37Intel. So I guess we need to start a
- 2:40rebranded It's a it's a futurist podcast.
- 2:44Well, but you know, Tony, your journey actually spans science,
- 2:48operations and global strategy. What moment forced you to stop
- 2:53thinking like an operator and start thinking like a futurist?
- 2:59Look, I think that moment for me, Ademola, was back in 2017.
- 3:02I mean, I started my consulting work 10 years before that.
- 3:07And prior to that, as you say, I was in operations general
- 3:09manager of two food companies. And right about 2017, I started
- 3:14to see things in my newsletters that I hadn't seen before.
- 3:17And we all get into industry newsletters.
- 3:19So I'm reading my industry newsletters.
- 3:21So I'm going like, wow, I didn't know you could do that.
- 3:25I didn't know that technology even existed.
- 3:27And look at that consumer trend. Look how fast that's going.
- 3:31And, you know, I sat back and I went, I have never seen in all
- 3:38my 30 odd years in the food industry a rate of change like I
- 3:42was seeing in 2017. So, you know, I'm kind of like,
- 3:46wow, all this stuff's going on. So I go and talk to my executive
- 3:49friends, my clients and colleagues saying how do you
- 3:52keep up with all of this information that's coming up?
- 3:56And the usual reply was I can't, I've got problems to solve.
- 4:03People recruit meetings to go to, strategies to prepare.
- 4:07Tony, you want me to think 5/10/20 years into the future,
- 4:11not going to happen. So then I thought to myself,
- 4:14well, someone needs to do this and to use my wife's most hated
- 4:19phrase, how hard can it be? So I, I decided that I would be
- 4:25the one who would look at all these technologies, look at what
- 4:27was going on and communicate them as part of my consulting
- 4:32business. And then of course, when I'm
- 4:34consulting, I'm only dealing with maybe what, half a dozen
- 4:38people or in an organisation. So the spread that I was getting
- 4:42the, the amount of people I could reach was fairly small.
- 4:46That's when I became a professional.
- 4:47Speaker. World speaking professional.
- 4:51Yep, speaking on on the the future of food.
- 4:54But that was when things changed for me was about mid 2017 and
- 4:59that realising how difficult it is for executives to do their
- 5:05day job to include looking at cutting edge technologies across
- 5:11a wide spectrum and project that 5/10/20 years into the future.
- 5:16Very, very difficult. Extremely difficult.
- 5:20And you know, speaking from the lens, from the viewpoint of the
- 5:25millennial, right? So as a millennial, I always
- 5:29feel that I am in a sweet spot. I'm not too old and I'm not too
- 5:34young, right? And I've been privileged to see
- 5:38the evolution of technology over time, right?
- 5:41I was alive when we were using the, the cassettes, right, the
- 5:47CDs, the BCDS, the tapes, you know, we saw the, the
- 5:53BlackBerry, we saw, you know, Chelsea shut it into the Android
- 5:57phones and you know, the, the iPhones, you know, from iPhone 1
- 6:01down to iPhone 17. It's, it's, it's really amazing
- 6:06what, what, what is happening, you know, seeing blockchain
- 6:09technology, looking at cloud computing, quantum computing.
- 6:14Now we're in the age of the LLMS, who knows what is coming
- 6:18next? We just don't know.
- 6:21And you just have to keep keeping up, right?
- 6:24But you know, you often say that leadership is about foresight,
- 6:28right? But what did you have to unlearn
- 6:32to develop that level of clarity, even in the fast-paced
- 6:36world of technology? Look, I think at all when we're
- 6:42in a business, we look out into the world and we think that we
- 6:47see like, oh, a good 180° I can, I have this wide view of the
- 6:53world. And if you leave that company or
- 6:55particularly if you leave that industry, you find that no,
- 6:59that's how wide your view was. So what I had to sort of unlearn
- 7:05or develop was that ability to have a very, very wide view of
- 7:09food, a very, very wide view of the future, not just any
- 7:13particular segment or industry, but to look at technologies that
- 7:19lie on the fringe, technologies that aren't necessarily in the
- 7:25food industry at all. I mean, you look at some of the
- 7:28technologies like cultivated meat that came from the medical
- 7:32industry. You look at something like
- 7:33precision fermentation comes from pharmaceuticals.
- 7:37So those industries didn't directly interface with food,
- 7:42but they do now. And we're seeing other
- 7:44technologies as well coming up at the cutting edge of various
- 7:49industries that are having or will have a major impact on
- 7:52food. Wow.
- 7:56I, I think having a bit of a background in science, I'm quite
- 7:59curious about the fermentation side of things.
- 8:04Would you give us a brief story about how it came about?
- 8:08Because, you know, it's interesting how some of the
- 8:12world's greatest inventions actually come from unintended
- 8:17consequences. So, for example, the person who
- 8:21invented silk did not go about thinking they wanted to invent
- 8:25silk, it just happened. So I'd like for you to give us a
- 8:28brief story about how about the fermentation process.
- 8:34Yeah. Well, I think if you look at
- 8:35what we're calling precision fermentation now, precision
- 8:38fermentation is where you take the gene for something you want
- 8:42to make, you put it into an Organism.
- 8:45It could be a yeast, a bacteria, A mould, something like that.
- 8:49And then you get that Organism to produce the compound that you
- 8:52want. And that's been very common in
- 8:55the Pharmaceutical industry for decades.
- 8:58One of those factories costs about 2 billion U.S. dollars to
- 9:03to build and Commission. So they're not cheap.
- 9:05And we use that for say, particularly for for medicines.
- 9:09And that industry is fine-tuned for absolutely pure high grade
- 9:15materials because you're injecting it into your body.
- 9:19Now for food, you don't need that degree of purity because as
- 9:24long as the impurities are inert, they don't do anything,
- 9:28then you can then make that product far more cost
- 9:31effectively. And we've seen particularly 2
- 9:34products on the the forefront of this precision fermentation. 1
- 9:39is whey protein because as we know whey protein for is a
- 9:43byproduct of cheese making and it's in so many products.
- 9:47It's everything from protein shakes to protein bars to all
- 9:52sorts of things of fortified use in whey protein and the whey
- 9:55protein demand is doing that. So a company called Perfect Day,
- 10:01they put the gene for casein into a yeast and they use that
- 10:04to make whey protein. Another company called the, they
- 10:07were called the every company at the time and they put the gene
- 10:12for egg protein, egg white albumin into an Organism and
- 10:16they grow egg white products. So that's using a technology
- 10:20richly in for pharmaceuticals to make food products.
- 10:25Wow, amazing, amazing. So for all of the gene bodies,
- 10:32listen to these. Now you know how your whey
- 10:34protein is that's been created. I used to be on whip it is it.
- 10:41I hope it is fine because I used to be on whip protein for some
- 10:46time. So let's contemplate whether
- 10:50we're going back to whip protein or not, or whether we're just
- 10:54sticking to eggs. So you know, you, you actually
- 11:02work with a lot of leaders, right?
- 11:03And a lot of them to see the least are overwhelmed by the
- 11:08rapid change that is happening. Oh yes, in this Asian time.
- 11:12So what separates those who adapt from those who disappear?
- 11:20I think those that get help because it's one thing knowing I
- 11:26can't keep up and then you have a decision.
- 11:30I'm just going to ignore this stuff and hope it doesn't affect
- 11:34me and hope it goes away or acknowledge that you have a gap
- 11:39and you find you get help to fill that gap like you would do
- 11:43with I suppose anything in in business where you have gaps
- 11:47need to fill that gap. The thing with looking at long
- 11:51term strategies, what we call foresight is it is long term,
- 11:55you know, Wall Street quarterly results, you can do something.
- 11:59You'll see the results at the end of the quarter went up, went
- 12:01down, You know the result. With foresight, you're making
- 12:05decisions that will have impacts in five and 10 years time.
- 12:10And the 10 year of most CEOs is what, 5, maybe 10 years at the
- 12:16most, some longer term. But most people, so most CEOs
- 12:20are not likely to see the results of their work in
- 12:25foresight during the tenure of their organisation.
- 12:28That's where it's the responsibility of boards who are
- 12:33responsible for the long term health and welfare of the
- 12:37company to step in and say we want you as CEO to have a 510 or
- 12:4320 year view of the future, even though you might not be here to
- 12:48see it. Wow.
- 12:51Amazing. So that speaks to corporate
- 12:55governance, right? And I appreciate you talking
- 12:59about the importance of corporate governance, but I'd
- 13:02like for you to shed more light on this because a lot of the
- 13:05experts do not, would I say, give it the attention that it
- 13:11deserves. But it is something that is
- 13:13very, very important. So I'd like for you to speak to
- 13:17the importance of corporate governance, right, for
- 13:20organisations and of course for the, the, the progress that is
- 13:26needed in, you know, this current times.
- 13:28We have, you know, a, the proliferation of AI, for
- 13:33example, proliferation of new technologies, right?
- 13:36But corporate governance, how important is it for
- 13:41organisations to stay adaptable and to stay future proof?
- 13:49I mean, I think if you don't have resilience as an
- 13:53organisation in this day and age, you're doomed to failure
- 13:57because we know how fast things can change.
- 14:01We know how disruptive technologies can be if they're
- 14:04not addressed and they're not taken into account.
- 14:06So that ability to be resilient and at board level, setting the
- 14:11tone for the senior management in terms of resilience and in
- 14:15terms of that resilience being the ability to react to
- 14:19unforeseen circumstances in the future or even better, to be
- 14:23prepared for a set of unseen circumstances, or not unseen,
- 14:28but ones that you're not sure of.
- 14:30We call them alternative futures.
- 14:32So some people think that, oh, you know, if you're a good
- 14:36futurist, you predict the future.
- 14:37Now, futurists don't predict the future.
- 14:41They ensure that you're prepared for the future, whatever it
- 14:45turns out to be. So you look at the future and
- 14:49go, given all these technologies, here's maybe 3
- 14:52different ways those technologies could go.
- 14:55And as an organisation, you then say, OK, what do I have to do
- 15:01differently for each of those 3 scenarios?
- 15:04Now you don't put together a 200 page plan for it, but you
- 15:08acknowledge that if this future happens, my core is still OK,
- 15:12but I'm going to need these three technologies for that
- 15:16future. This one happens, cores are OK,
- 15:19but I need 3 different technologies for this future and
- 15:22so on. So that you're prepared to be
- 15:24resilient and you can react in good time when the future
- 15:30actually eventuates. So I think that governance point
- 15:33of view, taking that long term view of the future, because what
- 15:36we're finding at the moment, and I talked to a lot of
- 15:39organisations and they're like, Oh no, we, we haven't got time
- 15:42to think about the future. We've got the affordability
- 15:46crisis, we've got Hormuz, we've got this with that.
- 15:50That's fine. But you need to be able to make
- 15:55decisions today with the long term future in mind.
- 15:59As I say, the reason we explore the future is to make the best
- 16:03possible decisions today. Because if we know what the
- 16:06future could be, we can look back to today and say, well, OK,
- 16:10if the future is going to be one of these, what today is going to
- 16:14be leading us in the right direction?
- 16:16Because you can make short term decisions that take you in that
- 16:18direction. If future turns out to be in
- 16:20that direction, you just wasted a lot of time, effort and
- 16:24resources. So even though the temptation
- 16:27might be no, no, no, I just need to worry about this quarter and
- 16:30next quarter, then I'll think about the future.
- 16:33But if the short term decisions are taking you in the wrong
- 16:35direction, you're wasting a lot of time and effort.
- 16:40And sometimes you have found grown on the wrong Rd.
- 16:43But, you know, Speaking of the future, let's talk about the
- 16:47future of food. You describe food as technology.
- 16:52Are you able to break that down? What does that really mean for
- 16:55business leaders today? Well.
- 16:59I mean, if you think about food from farm to fork, it's full of
- 17:04technology. You look at farming, we have
- 17:07drones on farms. We have robot tractors, we have
- 17:10precision wedding. We have weeders, robot weeders
- 17:14that use lasers to destroy weeds.
- 17:17So technologies everywhere on farms.
- 17:20If we look to the manufacturing side itself, we have what we've
- 17:24talked about, precision fermentation, cultivated meat.
- 17:28We have AI coming into product development.
- 17:31And then you go to the consumers.
- 17:33Consumers, there's technology in their food.
- 17:36They have their smart rings, smart watches, turn them about
- 17:40their health and nutrition and guiding them and guiding them in
- 17:45what they should do and how they should eat.
- 17:48So food and technology, they're just intertwined.
- 17:53You cannot separate food from technology.
- 17:56So I'd say food really is technology.
- 17:59They're one and the same. I mean, we used to be food used
- 18:02to be a sleepy technological backwater compared to the
- 18:06electronics industry, but that's not the case anymore.
- 18:09There's as much technology goes into food manufacture as that
- 18:14goes into any of the electronics technology around today.
- 18:18Yeah, with a lot of organic chemistry at the at the highest
- 18:22level happening right now. I love, I love the concept of
- 18:26the fermentation. Wow.
- 18:29So what are the top three technologies that will redefine
- 18:34the global food system over the next decade?
- 18:39I think the, if we look at it, looking at cellular agriculture,
- 18:44which is not just cultivated meat, but what we're seeing
- 18:48today in the chocolate's a great example.
- 18:50If you've seen the price of chocolate, chocolate keeps going
- 18:54up because we've got diseases, low yields, labour problems, all
- 19:00sorts of things happening to the cacao industry.
- 19:03So we chocolate ingredients are more and more expensive, so you
- 19:07can actually take the cells from the cacao plant, put them into
- 19:11giant stainless steel reactors and make chocolate ingredients.
- 19:16So cellular agriculture can be used for plant products as well
- 19:20as animal products. I think cellular agriculture has
- 19:23got an amazing future. Then as we talked about what's
- 19:27called in general synthetic biology, which includes
- 19:31precision fermentation, that is going to have a major effect.
- 19:35And the last one, of course, is AAI, which is an accelerator to
- 19:40the other two. So it means that you can
- 19:42accelerate the pace with which you can develop your cellular
- 19:47agriculture products and your precision for fermentation
- 19:50products. And those three technologies I
- 19:52really believe are going to drive massively the future of
- 19:56food. Now, I'm not saying in any way
- 19:59that conventional crop agriculture and animal
- 20:02agriculture will disappear. Not saying that at all, they're
- 20:05going to be around for a long, long time, if not forever, but
- 20:09just that these technologies are going to be the most influential
- 20:13on where we see the future of food go in the coming decades.
- 20:18Amazing. So alternative proteins, AI and
- 20:24sustainability are major trends. Which one is the most
- 20:28misunderstood and why? I think, you know,
- 20:36sustainability possibly is misunderstood because when we
- 20:39think about sustainability, we think, oh, it's sustainable,
- 20:42that's great, but sustainability is keeping the status quo.
- 20:48What we should be looking more at is regenerative agriculture,
- 20:53so that we're getting the outcomes we want in terms of
- 20:56biodiversity, soil health, less inputs like fertilisers.
- 21:02I mean, we're seeing, again, with the current crisis in the
- 21:05Middle East, the supply of urea is starting to dry up.
- 21:09So we've got less and less fertilisers that we can use to
- 21:12grow our crops. So I think that if we get that
- 21:16regenerative side of things, then that is going to help
- 21:20insulate part of the food supply from shocks like we're seeing
- 21:24now. And there's even technology in
- 21:26that. There's a company called Pivot
- 21:28Bio, They have a soil microbiome that they've developed.
- 21:33They can either spray it on the ground or on the seeds before
- 21:36they're planted and it reduces nitrogen usage by about 40 kilos
- 21:41per hectare, which is a lot when you're doing millions of
- 21:44hectares. That's a lot of fertiliser you
- 21:45don't need. So you don't get the runoff, you
- 21:48don't get the problems, you don't have to buy as much
- 21:51fertiliser. Very, very cost effective.
- 21:54So those sorts of technologies are also in the mix.
- 21:57Again, another example of technology and farming.
- 22:05Wow. So, so you talked about how the
- 22:08crisis in the Middle East is affecting the global supply
- 22:12chain for food briefly, right? I'll love for you to expand on
- 22:16that, right. But also you talked about a
- 22:20component, a chemical compound that is your beer, which is very
- 22:26would I say, a stable component of fertilisers, right also?
- 22:33It's one of the most commonly used fertilisers.
- 22:37Yes, that that I know. At least you know, I do have a
- 22:40science background and thinking about it like correct me if I'm
- 22:43wrong is, is it not possible to produce urea from what I say
- 22:52synthetic chemical reactions? Is is it possible to to to to do
- 22:58that? Yeah.
- 23:01A lot of nitrogen is produced by what's called the Harvard Bosch
- 23:04process and they use a lot of LNG, which is one of the
- 23:08problems that a lot of liquid nitrogen produced in the in the
- 23:11Middle East is not getting through.
- 23:13So we can't make our our, our fertilisers.
- 23:16And this is one of the things that we're seeing.
- 23:18If we go back to COVID, we've had the shock of COVID
- 23:22disrupting supply chains. Russia, Ukraine war disrupting
- 23:26supply chains, now Strait of Hormuz disrupting supply chains.
- 23:31As I've been saying for years, this idea of growing stuff or
- 23:36making raw materials on one side of the world and shipping it to
- 23:39the other side of the world is not necessarily the good idea we
- 23:43once thought it was. And Hormuz is not the only choke
- 23:47point. The Panama Canal, the Suez
- 23:51Canal, the Straits of Malacca, those are all global
- 23:55checkpoints. If one of those goes down, then
- 23:59we have similar problems to what we're seeing now or, or possibly
- 24:03even worse. So countries now need to look at
- 24:06the difference between food security and food sovereignty.
- 24:11Now, Singapore, for example, exports about 90, not 95% of all
- 24:16its food. But they're quite food secure,
- 24:18right? They can buy whatever food they
- 24:21like. They're a rich country until
- 24:23either A, you just can't get it or B, people won't sell it to
- 24:29you. Malaysia stopped selling chicken
- 24:31to Singapore like that at one stage because of their domestic
- 24:34chicken market problems. So they couldn't get it because
- 24:37they weren't food sovereign. So they didn't make enough food
- 24:41in their own country. Even though their food's secure,
- 24:43they weren't food sovereign. And I think we're going to see a
- 24:46lot more returning to the days of, well, OK, even though it's
- 24:52cheaper to make it 10,000 kilometres away and ship it in,
- 24:57maybe we're best to make it in our country so that we are food
- 25:02sovereign. So if anything happens and the
- 25:04supplies cut off, we can still at least grow a base amount of
- 25:08food for our country rather than being at the mercy of someone
- 25:13else. And I mean, as as we know,
- 25:16food's been a weapon of war for 10s of thousands of years.
- 25:20That's what sieges were all about, right?
- 25:22Starve people out. Stop them out and you get your
- 25:26desired alcohol. Yep, Yep.
- 25:30And I mean the rules based order is now dead as everyone says.
- 25:34So you really have to start looking at where do you need
- 25:38sovereignty and some of these new technologies can you can
- 25:42make food without arable land or virtually any fresh water.
- 25:48There's a company called Solar Foods based out of Finland.
- 25:52They make food from air. They suck air in through their
- 25:57machine. They separate out the water,
- 26:00carbon dioxide and nitrogen. They split the water into
- 26:03hydrogen and oxygen, hence using solar energy, hence solar foods.
- 26:08They mix some microbes, a few minerals, they process the
- 26:11nitrogen and they grow food from air.
- 26:15Comes from NASA technology of the 60s.
- 26:17How do we feed astronauts? And they're now commercialising
- 26:21their second factory and that product will go mainstream in
- 26:27the next decade. And so therefore, in countries
- 26:30in Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa and other
- 26:32places where you don't have arable land or freshwater, a lot
- 26:36of it, you can still make food. And the beauty is it needs solar
- 26:39energy. Guess where the most solar
- 26:41energy is on the planet? Sub-Saharan Africa.
- 26:44Africa. Africa.
- 26:46That's the equator. That's the technologies.
- 26:50Yep, exactly. So those technologies, that's
- 26:53why some of these technologies are so good for food
- 26:55sovereignty, because you don't have to try and create or you
- 26:59don't have to have large amounts of arable land and freshwater.
- 27:03Well, I, I, I love the fact that you, you, you touched on
- 27:07sub-Saharan Africa. I'm originally from Nigeria.
- 27:11And of course that is, that is the hotbed of sub-saharan of
- 27:15Africa. And you know, for me, it's crazy
- 27:18to think about the fact that we are blessed with the, would I
- 27:22say, solar energy, like it is literally free in that part of
- 27:27the world, right? But one thing we've always
- 27:30struggled with is when I say government policies and of
- 27:34course execution by the government.
- 27:37So if you we're advising a government today, what would be
- 27:41the first move for them to seek your food for the next 50 years?
- 27:47Look, I think The thing is Adam Alla is which government are we
- 27:51talking the government of Nigeria or the government of the
- 27:54US to conquer different ends of the spectrum?
- 27:58What I'd like to concentrate on is the countries at the Nigeria
- 28:02end of the spectrum up and coming emerging companies with
- 28:06huge opportunities and population and everything else
- 28:10and say to them, look, you know, if we look, I look at Kenya back
- 28:14in 2002, right, they needed to dramatically improve their
- 28:18telecommunications. So what did they do?
- 28:22Did they go? I know we'll let's have a, we
- 28:24have a cabinet meeting. I know, let's buy 100,000
- 28:28trenching machines, 2,000,000 kilometres of copper wire, set
- 28:32up a local handset manufacturing industry, and in 100 years we'll
- 28:36catch up with the rest of the world.
- 28:38No, they got cell technology in, they gave people cheap handsets
- 28:47and they leapfrogged. Literally 100 years of
- 28:50telecommunications technology in a decade.
- 28:54So why can't countries like that look at food in the same way?
- 28:58Why do I have to import millions of tonnes of fertiliser, grow
- 29:03all these cows, do all this stuff to have a food industry?
- 29:08Why don't I look at the latest technologies and say how do I
- 29:13use those to leapfrog where I am now to where I want to be?
- 29:19And again, taking into account that sovereignty is so important
- 29:24and the importing fertilisers and other resources is probably
- 29:29not a good idea. And if we look at Nigeria by
- 29:34just after the early 20 fifties, it will have more people, a
- 29:39higher population than the US. So it will not have the same GDP
- 29:44maybe, but will have more population, a much younger
- 29:47population and probably on a much faster trajectory than than
- 29:52than the US. So why don't they take advantage
- 29:54of the latest cutting edge technologies rather than going,
- 29:58what did they do in the US? What did they do in the UK?
- 30:01What did they do in Australia? Let's just follow them.
- 30:04If Kenya had done that, they'd still be talking on handsets and
- 30:07trying to, you know, connect through the operator.
- 30:09I mean, that doesn't make any sense.
- 30:12So why can't they leapfrog some of these into some of these new
- 30:16technologies? That's what I'd be saying to
- 30:19those, to those governments, to the other governments, the more
- 30:23advanced governments, I I'd be saying, you know, look at where
- 30:29you are and what you can make sustainably.
- 30:32Because there's a gap between what we can make sustainably and
- 30:37what we're going to need to feed a global population in 2050.
- 30:42And what we don't want is to disrupt the current global food
- 30:48system. We've seen what disruption does
- 30:51to the food system. The last thing we need is
- 30:53disruption like short sharp shocks.
- 30:56We don't need those. So what we need to do is look at
- 30:59how we optimise and make sustainable our current food
- 31:02system and on top of that other technologies so that we can fill
- 31:07that gap between what we can make sustainably and what we're
- 31:11going to need by 2050 and beyond.
- 31:14Amazing, amazing. And of course, you have your
- 31:19proprietary framework. It very much aligns with the
- 31:23philosophy of this forecast because the main philosophy of
- 31:26this forecast is mindset, skill set, tool set.
- 31:29And of course, you have provided the tool set, right?
- 31:33So you have the framework for the future cubed, which is
- 31:38trademarked, right? So are you able to what I say,
- 31:43give us a brief expose on what the future cubed framework is
- 31:50about? Yeah.
- 31:53Well, look, I mean, just to go back once to Adam Ola, the the
- 31:56reason I developed that was some people look at trying to do
- 32:00foresight, trying to look at the future and it's just all too
- 32:03hard and all too complicated. So I thought, what's something
- 32:07that is nice and easy and simple to follow.
- 32:11So obviously the future cubes about the future and the cubed.
- 32:14CUBED is the process that you follow.
- 32:19So first of all, you challenge your thinking.
- 32:22We've talked before about taking a much wider view of what's
- 32:25going on, challenging things. The old, we've always done it
- 32:29this way or this is the way things happen, or that's the
- 32:31only way it can happen. So look at these new
- 32:33technologies, some of which we've talked about, and
- 32:36challenge your thinking with it. What could that mean?
- 32:39And then we call these cutting edge things that we see signals
- 32:44of change. They're a signal that things are
- 32:46changing. They're not going to be the same
- 32:49as they were. And we need to then understand
- 32:53that's the UN cube, understand these signals and what they
- 32:57could mean. And then we need to from that we
- 33:01then go to be prepared. So what we do is we say given
- 33:05all these things that we've seen, let's prepare what we
- 33:08talked about before and Amola, which is those alternative
- 33:11futures. So we can see the future could
- 33:14happen in maybe 2-3 or four ways.
- 33:17Let's develop an understanding at least on a surface level of
- 33:21each of those futures. So then we can have a be able to
- 33:26be resilient no matter what future comes to pass.
- 33:29We might not pick it exactly even with the three, but if we
- 33:33do have work properly, it'll be very close to let's say one of
- 33:36those three that we had. Then we need to do a bit of an
- 33:39evaluation. We need to dive a little bit
- 33:41deeper and go, well, OK, what do each of those futures mean for
- 33:45our organisation? Does it mean that we need far
- 33:48more CapEx? Does it mean that we need much
- 33:52better human resources in R&D? Does it mean we did much better
- 33:56marketing department? What do each of these futures
- 33:59mean to us? And then the final one, the D in
- 34:03future cubed is decisive action because I'm not one of these
- 34:07futurists that goes, here's a blue sky view, flying cars,
- 34:11robot dogs, this, that and the other, it's like, no, no, no,
- 34:14I've been in business. It needs to be something that's
- 34:16useful. And then at some point you need
- 34:19to take action. You can't just do all this work
- 34:21and then say, oh, that was interesting, you've got to go.
- 34:24We need to take action. And if you've done the work
- 34:27properly, you will take action maybe 12 months before your
- 34:32competitors even realise what's going on.
- 34:35You've maybe already started building that factory 12 months
- 34:39ago, so they're 12 months behind.
- 34:41Maybe you've recruited the best people in the world in that area
- 34:45of research or product development or whatever, and
- 34:48you've deprived the other companies of that expertise.
- 34:51So that's the advantage of that, being prepared for what's going
- 34:55to happen. And that's what the future Q
- 34:57process does. It's a very simple process that
- 35:01people can follow to be prepared for the future.
- 35:05Well, amazing framework and of course I love the level of
- 35:10detail and insight that you provided into the framework, but
- 35:14where the companies actually feel right in applying this
- 35:18foresight strategy. I think they again they
- 35:26concentrate too much on the short term and they don't pay
- 35:31enough attention to the long term that it something that goes
- 35:35on the shelf that's interesting that's for five or ten years
- 35:38time rather than saying no. This is an integral part of our
- 35:41strategy that must be considered at every board meeting at every
- 35:46quarterly or six months or whatever strategy meeting.
- 35:49This needs to be embedded in what we do.
- 35:51This the process of looking to the future term as a check
- 35:57against what we're doing today. Does it match If we think the
- 36:00future is in that direction and this short term decision is
- 36:04going to take us in that direction, is that still the
- 36:07right thing to do? So not using that and continuing
- 36:11to use that knowledge on a continuous basis.
- 36:19So how about you know SMEs, that is small, medium, you know
- 36:24skilled enterprises, founders without a project.
- 36:27So how can you know small businesses use the framework
- 36:30without affording a big consulting budget?
- 36:37Well, I mean, I, I suppose the easiest way is go to my website,
- 36:39there's a few, there's an outline of the future Q process.
- 36:43And I think there is no downside no matter how you approach that
- 36:52foresight strategy. Even just having a view, looking
- 36:56at my process and following it yourself is way, way better than
- 37:00doing nothing. If you can look at that and say
- 37:03to yourself, I'm going to do this every week, I'm going to
- 37:06look at what's going on. I'm going to spend 2 hours
- 37:09investigating the future, challenging my thinking and then
- 37:12thinking about what that means for my organisation.
- 37:15Just that change in mindset without spending a lot of money
- 37:19on going through the whole process in great depth and
- 37:21detail. Doing that changes your mindset
- 37:25because the future cubed is a process, but it's also a
- 37:28mindset. It's a way of looking at the
- 37:30future. That means that you're far less
- 37:33likely to be ambushed as circumstances change.
- 37:38That is brilliant. So please what is the website so
- 37:41we can have it in the description below?
- 37:45It is futurist4food.com and the four is FAOR so futurist FAOR
- 37:52food.com and you'll find that there one of the drop downs will
- 37:57take you to my process. OK.
- 38:01And if you want to follow me on link, link LinkedIn as well
- 38:04also, I also feature that on my LinkedIn as well.
- 38:07And on the my website there's also blogs frequently on the
- 38:11future Q process and things like that.
- 38:14OK, yes, we will have your LinkedIn as well, you know, in
- 38:17in the description for for the forecast.
- 38:19So wherever you get your forecast guys look at the
- 38:22description and of course you can connect with Tony Hunter on
- 38:27LinkedIn. You can link up with him on
- 38:30LinkedIn. So for for for the founders
- 38:37listening to us today, right? What's that?
- 38:39One simple foresight habits that every founder, every CEO should
- 38:45start doing this week. I think, look, just develop a
- 38:51deep sense of curiosity about the outside world and what's
- 38:55going on outside your own field. I mean, that exposure to new
- 38:59ideas and new ways of doing things, I think there's no
- 39:02substitute for doing that because we're all tempted as
- 39:07senior executives to focus so much on our own business, so
- 39:11much of what's going on. And particularly you've been in
- 39:14the industry a long, long time, which can be quite an advantage
- 39:18sometimes. But at the downside is that
- 39:22you're only looking at it through that same lens that
- 39:24you've looked at it for the last 5-10, maybe even 20 years.
- 39:30Oh wow. Amazing.
- 39:31And you know, something just came up on my mind.
- 39:35I have been privileged to speak with some of the world's top
- 39:39futurists, right? And one word that all of you
- 39:45keep saying is curiosity, right? I have never spoken to a single
- 39:50futurist who hasn't used that word.
- 39:53Curiosity. What's up with being curious,
- 39:56right? Yeah, and, and I mean, it's one
- 40:03of those things. I I read a newsletter and it's
- 40:05amazing. You read a newsletter and you
- 40:07see something, then you follow that one and you follow that one
- 40:10and you follow that and you go down the rabbit hole and you
- 40:12discover things you never even imagined.
- 40:17I mean the one of my favourite technologies at the moment
- 40:21again, which is at the outside edge of food, but I can see how
- 40:26it could be applied to food even though no one's.
- 40:28Mention it, to my knowledge, is a company called Koniku.
- 40:31What they've done is they've put mouse neurons onto a computer
- 40:35chip and it can smell better than a dog's nose.
- 40:41And it can be used for detecting land mines, detecting explosives
- 40:46at airports. But imagine if you use that
- 40:49sense of smell to smell food products and then correlated
- 40:53that to what the consumer wants in a smell of a product, and
- 40:58then use AI to then generate A formulation that will give you
- 41:03that flavour, that smell profile that you want.
- 41:06So that could be really, really useful to digitise food smells.
- 41:16Amazing stuff. You just never know what you're
- 41:19able to create in the age of AI. But, you know, like talking.
- 41:24Absolutely. The the the global impact and
- 41:28the system of thinking. Now we are heading towards a
- 41:32global population of 10 billion people.
- 41:36That is insane. That is scary, right?
- 41:40So with the world heading towards feeding 10 billion
- 41:43people, we need as much innovation as we can get.
- 41:48But what are we getting wrong today?
- 41:53Look, let me just go back a second.
- 41:55I say that we're going to have 11 billion or more mouths to
- 41:59feed, not ten. Because besides 9 point, besides
- 42:069.7 billion humans, there will be about 1.3 billion or more pet
- 42:11cats and dogs also needing to be fed.
- 42:15They can eat as much protein as a human.
- 42:18So we have over 11 billion mouths to feed, not just the
- 42:24human population by 2050. So that's the challenge.
- 42:28And if we look at the coming generations, pets are becoming
- 42:33more and more important, more and more part of the family, and
- 42:37they want to be fed well, they'll be looked after.
- 42:40And so the challenge is going to be feeding these increasing
- 42:43number of pets as well as humans.
- 42:48Wow, interesting. I know, I know we've touched on
- 42:50this before, but I would like for you to expand on this right
- 42:53now. Like how does geopolitics and
- 42:58the global supply chains, right? How does it shape the future of
- 43:03food security? You know, given what we've seen
- 43:06recently with the Suez Canal, with the Street of Hormuz, like,
- 43:12how does geopolitics and you know, when I say clumsy chances
- 43:18in the global supply chain system, right?
- 43:21How does it shape the future of food security?
- 43:27I think what it means is that as a country you have to realise I
- 43:31cannot rely 100% on any country and for a variety of reasons I
- 43:38just can't do that. So how do I look at the supply
- 43:41chain and that same word we used before, Ademola resilience.
- 43:45OK, if I can't get it from here, can I get it from there?
- 43:50If I can't get it from there, can I make it locally?
- 43:54What should I be making locally? What should I be doing to make
- 43:57sure that I have that sovereignty over my food supply?
- 44:00Because if I can't feed my population, that's the end of
- 44:05the story, isn't it? In the end, that's it.
- 44:08So you have to be able to feed your population.
- 44:10And one of that's one of the government's prime
- 44:13responsibilities is to ensure that their population are fed,
- 44:17yes, National Defence and all these sorts of things, but
- 44:20there's no good defending a population that's starving to
- 44:22death. So you have to be able to feed
- 44:26your population. So whatever you can do to ensure
- 44:29that is something valuable, it becomes a matter of national
- 44:33security. Is resilience and certainty
- 44:38sovereignty over your food supply?
- 44:42Wow. So what role will emerging
- 44:45markets like the countries in Africa play in the future of the
- 44:51food economy, the global food economy?
- 44:56Yeah. I think again, it harks back to
- 44:59what we were talking about before is that if they can adopt
- 45:03these new technologies and adopt them fast enough, then they
- 45:06become hotbeds of innovation and hotbeds of new technologies, new
- 45:12products, And that could give them a competitive advantage.
- 45:15Because as we know, generally you look at new technologies,
- 45:18they start off expensive and then they drop right in price.
- 45:23So if these countries can get in and scale some of these
- 45:26technologies, then they actually find that they have a
- 45:30competitive advantage against some conventionally manufactured
- 45:34products, and that then goes back to their own food supply
- 45:37and makes more affordable for them to supply their own
- 45:40population. So I think there's a huge
- 45:43opportunity for these countries, particularly in Africa, but in
- 45:46parts of Southeast Asia and India as well, to really adopt
- 45:51these new technologies to secure the future of the food supply
- 45:56for their populations. So if the current global system
- 46:02collapses, what does the next version look like?
- 46:09Well, as I say, I hope it never collapses as such.
- 46:14Well, I, I hope that changes are, are manageable.
- 46:18The rate of change is manageable because if it were to collapse,
- 46:22mass starvation would be it. I mean, if suddenly, not just
- 46:26the Strait of Hormuz, but Suez was closed, Michael was closed,
- 46:30and we had two or three of these choke points around the world
- 46:32closed, that would be disastrous.
- 46:34We would see starvation on a level, an unimaginable level we
- 46:38haven't seen for centuries. So I think that would be
- 46:41absolutely terrible. What I think is that we need to
- 46:47look at a rebalancing of our technologies and our food supply
- 46:52system to ensure it's at least sustainable, if not
- 46:55regenerative, and that we look at these technologies as a ways
- 46:59of filling that gap that we know we're going to have between what
- 47:03we grow sustainably within planetary boundaries and what
- 47:07we're going to need. So that's going to be, I think,
- 47:09the big, big effect. Oh.
- 47:12Interesting take. You know, let's talk about AI
- 47:16and leadership because AI is at the heart of what we do with
- 47:20this podcast. So you often times talk about
- 47:24exponential change. And of course anybody who
- 47:28understands AI understands that AI and exponential change are
- 47:34their siblings. But why do leaders consistently
- 47:39underestimate the the power of AI and the the exponential
- 47:45change it can create? Because I think that seems to
- 47:47create that exponential gap. Yep, I think this.
- 47:53I forget who it was, but someone said the greatest failing of the
- 47:57human race is the inability to understand the exponential
- 48:00function. And because what it is is we
- 48:03humans, we're linear creatures, right?
- 48:05An hour is an hour, a day is a day, a week is a week.
- 48:09A week doesn't pass quicker next year than it did this year.
- 48:13It's still a week when you're on holidays.
- 48:15It might seem to pass quicker, but it doesn't really.
- 48:17Still the same way because it was.
- 48:19When you're at work, it just seems sure, right?
- 48:21So that's the thing. Humans are linear technology,
- 48:27particularly things like AI, and most often are exponential.
- 48:31They're not linear and we have trouble wrapping a human linear
- 48:36minds around an exponential function.
- 48:40I think that is why leaders have trouble grasping it.
- 48:46And the other side of things is what they so often see is the
- 48:52exponential curve, as we know is very, very shallow at its start.
- 48:55It looks like a straight line, right?
- 48:57So if you're, if you're a leader and you look at those points and
- 49:00you put your ruler across them, you can look, that looks like a
- 49:03pretty nice straight line to me. It's not.
- 49:05It's a very shallow curve. And if you don't act, the gap
- 49:10between the straight line and the exponential curve starts
- 49:15widening in enormously. So people often they
- 49:20overestimate how quickly things will happen.
- 49:23So it'll all change in a year? No, it took 510 or 20 years.
- 49:28But when it did change, they underestimate the impact it will
- 49:33have. So you know, that is one of the
- 49:35problems that our our people board members seem second son
- 49:39have is they thinking linearly. It's very hard not to think
- 49:43linearly to immerse yourself in exponential change.
- 49:47And then when you look at it, it seems to be linear anyway at 1st
- 49:51until it takes off. And then you find out how far
- 49:54behind you really are. Because if you're running your
- 49:57business on a linear mode and the real change is that you end
- 50:02up with a huge gap and either you never catch up and you
- 50:06disappear, or you have to pump enormous resources into catching
- 50:11up, that's your only two choices.
- 50:14Interesting. Let's say OK, assuming time is
- 50:18not linear. They say time flies fast when
- 50:21you're having fun. Yeah.
- 50:28Time all these slides fast where you have a fun.
- 50:31But what might have shift? Most leaders might try to to to
- 50:36stay relevant in an AI driven world.
- 50:40What's the mindset shift that is required?
- 50:45I think the mindset shift is that AI is for use everywhere in
- 50:50the organisation, including at their own level.
- 50:54AI is not something you delegate to the guys in IT and then say
- 50:59good, we've got this AI thing done, the guys in IT are looking
- 51:03after it. In Australian parlance, she'll
- 51:06be right mate, Don't worry, it has got it.
- 51:09We'll just keep doing the way we've always done things in the
- 51:12boardroom at the CEO level. No, If you're not embedding AI
- 51:17at your own level in the things that you do, then how do you
- 51:21expect the rest of the organisation to respond?
- 51:25How do you expect them to embed AI in what they do and take the
- 51:29advantages of it if you're not doing it yourself?
- 51:32It really is a case of leading by example and looking at how
- 51:37you can optimise use of AI in your own department and in your
- 51:43own job. So if you're not doing that,
- 51:46then basically no, you're never going to convince the rest of
- 51:50the organisation that it truly is important.
- 51:54It just and take. So Speaking of AI in your own
- 51:58department, let's talk about AI in the end to end, when I say
- 52:06food process from farm to funk. So how will AI receive the food
- 52:11industry from farm to funk? I, I think the, the biggest
- 52:17impact is probably going to be in the manufacturing side of
- 52:20things, which will feedback into what they want from farms feed
- 52:24into the supermarkets and, and consumers.
- 52:27And that is it's impact on product development and R&D.
- 52:32So if we look at if you're a food technologist and someone
- 52:35says I want you to make a new food product, you can, you might
- 52:39have twenty ingredients and you've got to get the best
- 52:43combination of five of those to make your food product the
- 52:46tastiest it can be. What's your chance of choosing
- 52:50the right five products that are going to be absolutely the best?
- 52:54You got to go down the 20 and get get rid of that one, get rid
- 52:56of that one. That one's good, that one's good
- 52:58and you come up, if you're a good food technologist, you
- 53:00undoubtedly come up with a good product.
- 53:03Now, if you're using AI, you can say it says 20 products.
- 53:08How about you give me 20,000 and I'll give you the best
- 53:11combinations and it can come up with an enormous number
- 53:16combinations and ways of doing things that we as humans have
- 53:19never even thought of and. I'm.
- 53:23Not saying it can replace the human, Yep, so that you can.
- 53:28So then it can produce some combinations.
- 53:30You're like, I never thought of that one, I'll try it.
- 53:33And then you look at it. Maybe it's not quite right, but
- 53:35again, that feedback loop, you feedback to the AI that wasn't
- 53:38quite right for this reason. So next time it's even better
- 53:42and you can build up that knowledge base so that you can
- 53:45develop products that maybe you never even thought of.
- 53:50And it's compressing the time frame from having an idea to
- 53:54having the product on the shelf. You go back 1020 years, 18
- 53:58months. Here's the idea from marketing.
- 54:00Here's all the stuff we've done, It's on the shelf in 18 months,
- 54:04in 18 months. Now consumers forgotten about
- 54:07that trend. That's long gone. 18 weeks is
- 54:11too long now developing a new product, you need to try and get
- 54:14that down. If you get into 18 days, you
- 54:16probably can't, but you need to get it down to a a few months in
- 54:21order to take advantage of a consumer trend.
- 54:23Consumer trends are changing so quickly that you need to be able
- 54:26to do that. And AI enables you to come up
- 54:29with those combinations of ingredients and ways of making
- 54:33things and ways of evaluating products that we never had
- 54:36before. No substitute for humans in the
- 54:39mix because as I say, humans eat food, AI doesn't.
- 54:44So the final arbiter has to be a human.
- 54:47But I think that's where the big difference is coming.
- 54:50And we're seeing companies like AI Palate based out of
- 54:54Singapore, Case Wise based out of Israel in America, the
- 54:58Institute of Food Technologies have their Co developer AI that
- 55:02we're seeing AI come into food products in a big way now and
- 55:07making a big difference. All the major companies where
- 55:09you're talking Unilever, Danone, Nestle, they are all using AI to
- 55:15develop their products. And that is a is having a huge
- 55:18effect on how quickly companies can react to changing food
- 55:23trends. A while.
- 55:25So how do they balance the short term and the long term strategy?
- 55:35Well, if you look in in terms of product development or.
- 55:39Yes, yes, exactly. In terms of product development,
- 55:42because you know you're talking about that rapid change right,
- 55:46in consumer behaviour. So how do you get to balance
- 55:50that short term strategy versus the long term strategy?
- 55:56It's it's very, very good for short term because of course
- 56:00then you compress the time it takes from idea to product on
- 56:03the shelf. Looking at long term, it's goes
- 56:07back to fundamental research, so finding molecules that do things
- 56:14that you didn't know they could do or developing new products.
- 56:18So looking at genomics, so you can look at, OK, how do I
- 56:23engineer this microbe to make that particular product which
- 56:27takes a longer period of time? How do I look at this particular
- 56:31molecule that we need to make to make it sweeter, to make it
- 56:35taste this way, it tastes that way.
- 56:37So using AI to develop those products in more an R&D phase
- 56:43than an application phase, that's going to affect what we
- 56:46what we develop in the the long term.
- 56:50Interesting. And you know you've actually
- 56:53speaking from the business side now, right?
- 56:55You've actually worked with global brands and as well as
- 56:59start-ups. I think you would agree with me
- 57:02that the start-ups have more flexibility when it comes to
- 57:07executing strategy on like the big global brands.
- 57:12But the big brands tend to have the advantage in terms of the
- 57:16resources that they have control over.
- 57:19So what would you say are the biggest strategic mistakes that
- 57:24both groups are make? I think The thing is that what
- 57:32we're seeing with AIAI is democratising product
- 57:36development. So whereas before the large
- 57:39companies had the big advantage, they had lots of legacy data,
- 57:43they had lots of knowledge, lots of things that their people knew
- 57:47that other people didn't know. That's disappearing now.
- 57:51We're finding that small companies can have access
- 57:54through AI and through some of the ingredients companies to the
- 57:57same level of technology as the Nest Lays and Denones and so on
- 58:03of this world. So that's what we're seeing.
- 58:06And I can visit your day where you can a small company or a
- 58:10startup, you can make a phone call or a video call or on your
- 58:13watch or whatever we're using in 1020 years time.
- 58:16So I want a formulation for a product that does this, this,
- 58:20this and this, and I need to make it on these machines and so
- 58:23on. And the AI other end goes or
- 58:27words that effect and then says here you are.
- 58:30I've got three different formulations I think will do
- 58:32what you want. You say thank you.
- 58:34How much is that? And they say $250.
- 58:38So instead of $25,000, it's now $250.
- 58:42They say you said your own AI. Just please pay that AI the 250
- 58:47please and put the formulations in my inbox or in my file
- 58:53folder. Thank you very much.
- 58:54And you get the three, you try them, they're 95% right.
- 58:58You tweak them and you've got your product.
- 59:00You might be a very small organisation, but you're going
- 59:03to have access to the same amount of horsepower in
- 59:08developing a product as the large companies.
- 59:11Because as times are changing and consumers are changing so
- 59:15quickly, the advantage of knowing what consumers wanted 20
- 59:19years ago disappears. Who cares what consumers wanted
- 59:2320 years ago? What they wanted 20 months ago
- 59:26might still be relevant, but 20 years ago?
- 59:29Forget it. And as we get further and
- 59:30further along, that legacy data is likely become less and less
- 59:35valuable compared to knowing what's happening now or what
- 59:39might happen in three months time or happened three months
- 59:43ago. So I think that that's the
- 59:45that's the big thing is that's what's going to happen in the
- 59:48future is there's going to be this democratisation of the
- 59:51ability to develop and manufacture products.
- 59:54The big disadvantage for startups is scaling.
- 59:58We have the scale up Valley of Death.
- 1:00:01So you can get your product, you can prove it at pilot scale and
- 1:00:05then you might need a couple of $100 million to commercialise it
- 1:00:08and scale it. That's where the difficulty
- 1:00:11comes in, because particularly at the moment, AI is sucking the
- 1:00:14lifeblood out of venture capital.
- 1:00:17Everyone their dog in venture capital wants to investing
- 1:00:20somehow in AI otherwise. I need to.
- 1:00:23FOMO, fear of missing out on AI. Yep, and food organisations
- 1:00:29generally have much lower multiples than technology.
- 1:00:33Thing is, we're always going to need to eat.
- 1:00:37If you're looking for a long term solid investment, food is
- 1:00:42generally far better than any technology.
- 1:00:45Might not make you rich tomorrow, but it's going to keep
- 1:00:48you in money for a long period of time.
- 1:00:52And that's though where you have VC who who can get their fund do
- 1:00:58the funding in the short term. Looking to get a good multiple
- 1:01:01on exit. You have banks who say show me
- 1:01:04your turnover for the last 12 months or two years, so I know
- 1:01:07that you can make money to repay the loan.
- 1:01:10That's no good because you're a start up and in the middle.
- 1:01:14There are very few funders in the middle who will say, well
- 1:01:16OK, I'm prepared to take less than the VC, but I'm got a
- 1:01:21bigger risk appetite than a bank.
- 1:01:24So I will fund you in that scale up phase so you can go back to
- 1:01:27the bank in three or five years time.
- 1:01:29Say here's my history, here's my profitability.
- 1:01:32That's why I think I can borrow 2 or 300 million from you to
- 1:01:36build my next factory. And that's that's where the the
- 1:01:40problems are for those small companies.
- 1:01:43And I think they underestimate how hard scale up is going to
- 1:01:48be. I think that's the big issue for
- 1:01:52the. Difficulty in scaling.
- 1:01:53Start up companies. Yep, it is very, very and you.
- 1:01:58Need a different set of skills compared to family.
- 1:02:01Exactly, exactly, exactly. But but where should capital be
- 1:02:06deployed today for the highest long term return in food
- 1:02:13innovation? Well, as I was saying, I can't
- 1:02:18predict the future. So because I can't predict the
- 1:02:21future, I can't really predict for you 1 technology.
- 1:02:25What I would say is take AVC type approach, spread your
- 1:02:29portfolio across different technologies and different
- 1:02:35companies, different organisations act like a venture
- 1:02:38capital, do a deep dive so you really understand not just a
- 1:02:42superficial level, but at a deep level the technology you're
- 1:02:45investing in. And then invest in a portfolio
- 1:02:48of companies because you can look at it and go, well, say
- 1:02:52there's our alternative futures, which if, if these futures, one
- 1:02:56of them comes off and I've got five companies that future comes
- 1:03:00off. All three of them all, all be
- 1:03:01successful. That one and three will be
- 1:03:03successful. That one, three will be
- 1:03:04successful. There might be 3 different ones
- 1:03:06in each case. But depending on what future
- 1:03:09comes to pass, you will have a portfolio that's going to give
- 1:03:12you a good return. So spreading your your risk base
- 1:03:17really is what it's about with these new technologies.
- 1:03:21Hey, amazing, amazing take. So what are the signals that
- 1:03:26tell you if a company is future ready versus if they are already
- 1:03:33obsolete? Well, I think looking if they
- 1:03:41are future ready, then they are adopting these new technologies.
- 1:03:46They're looking at them, they're saying, OK, how do I add them as
- 1:03:51an opportunity into my business? So they're looking at it and
- 1:03:55saying, well, OK, this could be a competitor, but maybe it's not
- 1:03:58a competitor, maybe it's something I can add on to the
- 1:04:01organisation. There's a company in Australia,
- 1:04:03a dairy company called Norco, and they invested in a company
- 1:04:06called Eden Brew who were using precision fermentation to make
- 1:04:10dairy ingredients. So rather than circling the
- 1:04:13waggons and trying to kill this company, they invested in them.
- 1:04:17So that seems to me they're thinking they're looking to the
- 1:04:19future, they're looking at the opportunities.
- 1:04:21The companies that are already obsolete are the ones that are
- 1:04:24going. I need to get my marketing
- 1:04:26department to tell people how horrible this new technology is,
- 1:04:30how bad it is, why they shouldn't do it.
- 1:04:31I need to do everything I can to block it.
- 1:04:33I need to speak to my representative in in government
- 1:04:36and get them to stop funding for it.
- 1:04:38I need and I need to do, we need to do more of my stuff that I've
- 1:04:42got because I don't want to change.
- 1:04:44I just want to keep doing what I've always done because that
- 1:04:47will always make us successful. So I look for those signals that
- 1:04:50these companies, those are the 2 ends of the spectrum.
- 1:04:54There are ones in the middle, but the people who are really
- 1:04:56looking at the future, embracing the future, embracing new
- 1:04:59technologies as an opportunity, as an add on to their business.
- 1:05:03And those are determined to crush everything new that might
- 1:05:06change what they do. I think that is an interesting
- 1:05:12take across the Life is harder, or would I say life is the
- 1:05:17hardest right now for lobbyists that it has ever been at any
- 1:05:22point in time in history, because I think the
- 1:05:24democratisation of, of information has just made it
- 1:05:29very, very difficult. So we have what is closest in
- 1:05:33history to having a perfect market situation like we're
- 1:05:38taught in economics class. You know, there's, there's, I
- 1:05:42think we, we keep getting closer to the concept of a perfect
- 1:05:46market of perfect competition right in, in this age and time.
- 1:05:50Many thanks to, you know, the proliferation of our information
- 1:05:55by the LLMS, by the AI systems. But we do have what I say, a
- 1:06:03large population of founders, entrepreneurs that listen to
- 1:06:08this podcast. So if a founder is listening
- 1:06:12right now, what is one decision they cannot afford to delay
- 1:06:16today? Oh.
- 1:06:21Can't afford to delay. I mean it, it is going, I hate
- 1:06:26to say it again, going back to what we say, how am I going to
- 1:06:28scale this? How am I going to be able to
- 1:06:32manufacture this at a commercial scale?
- 1:06:36Not just thinking about I need to get this to pilot scale and
- 1:06:39then I'll prove I can make it and then everybody will come
- 1:06:42running to me with money. No, you need to think way beyond
- 1:06:46that into the commercialization side of things and say to
- 1:06:50yourself, I've got it up and running, I've got it at pilot
- 1:06:52stage. Now how am I going to cross that
- 1:06:55scale up Valley of Death to actually get my product to
- 1:06:59market to where I can prove sales and I can then prove to
- 1:07:03investors, including banks that I am worthy of their money?
- 1:07:09I think that would be the single thing I would say to them, just
- 1:07:12don't stop at there we are. I've made the product, now
- 1:07:16everybody's going to give me money.
- 1:07:19Might have worked 5 or 10 years ago, maybe it's not going to
- 1:07:23work now. They're, you know, the companies
- 1:07:27are far. Even VCs are far more choosy
- 1:07:32about what they invest in. You have to have a convincing
- 1:07:37point of difference. I was speaking to someone the
- 1:07:39other day and they said yeah I've had people come to me with
- 1:07:43ideas and they put into ChatGPT and chat GP told told them it
- 1:07:48was a wonderful idea and I said to them, well I can, I can list
- 1:07:545 competitors right now. You didn't do your due
- 1:07:57diligence. Make sure you have a true point
- 1:07:59of difference. If you're just one of a range of
- 1:08:02companies done exactly the same thing people have already
- 1:08:05invested in, no, you need to have a compelling point of
- 1:08:09difference from the other people in that startup and founder
- 1:08:13space. And if you've got that
- 1:08:15compelling point of difference and you can show how that can go
- 1:08:18through to scale up and commercialization, then I think
- 1:08:21you've got a compelling proposition for funding.
- 1:08:27Exactly, you, you have to prove the innovation and of course
- 1:08:31you, you need to prove the differentiation as well in this
- 1:08:35age of tax, you know. But let's talk about your
- 1:08:38personal philosophy and legacy, right?
- 1:08:41What does legacy mean to you in the context of global food
- 1:08:46systems? I mean, if you're looking at
- 1:08:52from from my personal point of view, from my, my legacy, you
- 1:08:56mean at a mother or? Yes, definitely.
- 1:08:59When it's all said and done, like what would you like your
- 1:09:02legacy to be in the context of the global food systems?
- 1:09:05I'd like my legacy to be that I I'd like it to be that I
- 1:09:09inspired people to optimism. I am at basis a techno optimist,
- 1:09:16not in a political or social point of view, but I believe
- 1:09:20there's not a problem in the world that cannot be solved
- 1:09:22through the correct application of technology.
- 1:09:27I look at it as a technology has solved humanity's problems since
- 1:09:30the dawn of time. From the invention of the plough
- 1:09:33to grow more food, to antibiotics, to mRNA vaccines.
- 1:09:38Technology has always solved humanity's problems.
- 1:09:43It always has and it always will.
- 1:09:46So I am an optimist. People say oh, we've got to feed
- 1:09:49all these people and this problem that probably all we
- 1:09:52have a history literally of solving problems through
- 1:09:56technology for 10s of thousands of years.
- 1:10:00Why we think all of a sudden we're going to come across a
- 1:10:03problem that's so insolvable that humanity is going to
- 1:10:09collapse. I don't believe that.
- 1:10:11And if we look to what we talked about with Africa, of the next
- 1:10:152.5 billion people coming onto the planet in in to 2051 billion
- 1:10:20of those are going to come from Africa.
- 1:10:23And the young minds that are going to come into society with
- 1:10:28their dreams and their ideas and their optimism on life, I think
- 1:10:32is a wonderful thing that we're going to see and that we should
- 1:10:36be looking to the future with optimism.
- 1:10:39I mean, one of the things that saddened me the most, one of my
- 1:10:44wife's friends said that she'd had someone come to her and say,
- 1:10:48when are you going to give that your kids, you know, I think
- 1:10:52you're probably sub 10 years old.
- 1:10:54When are you going to give them the talk that basically they're
- 1:10:56pretty well doomed and the world's going to burn?
- 1:10:58When are you going to tell them that?
- 1:11:00I I was appalled and saddened that anyone would think that
- 1:11:04that's what you need to tell your children.
- 1:11:07No, that's not right. I mean, we see too much
- 1:11:10negativity on the TV because if it bleeds.
- 1:11:14Sci-fi. We don't see all yeah, it's all
- 1:11:18my too much dystopian sci-fi. We need more Star Trek.
- 1:11:22We need more Star Trek with that utopian view of what could
- 1:11:26happen rather than the dystopian view of things like Blade
- 1:11:29Runner, however entertaining they may be.
- 1:11:33That's not what we want. We want the utopian version, or
- 1:11:36as close to that as we can get. And we can do it.
- 1:11:40And yes, technologies can be used for good or evil.
- 1:11:44You can take your plough and beat it into a sword and kill
- 1:11:48people, or you can keep growing food with it.
- 1:11:50Right. No technology can be is solely
- 1:11:54for good or solely for evil. We have a choice as human beings
- 1:11:57as to how we use these technologies, how we're going to
- 1:12:00control them, how we're going to use them to benefit all of
- 1:12:04humanity. And we can do that.
- 1:12:06I think there's no reason that we can't healthily, sustainably
- 1:12:11and fairly feed our 11 billion entities, including our pets in
- 1:12:162050 and the 1314 billion maybe on the planet by 2100.
- 1:12:22I don't think there's any reason that we can't do that.
- 1:12:25But that future is in our own hands.
- 1:12:30Whether we do it, whether we achieve that or not, I take the
- 1:12:33optimistic view that that's possible.
- 1:12:36That's what we should be going for.
- 1:12:38And if I had a legacy, it would be the person that, when they
- 1:12:41listen to, came away from our podcast at Amola optimistic and
- 1:12:47inspired as to what could happen in the future.
- 1:12:53Amazing, amazing stuff. So, Speaking of being
- 1:12:57optimistic, when the world looks back at this generation of
- 1:13:01leaders, what do you hope they have to say?
- 1:13:09I think they will. What would I hope they will look
- 1:13:12back and say yes, possibly more than possibly.
- 1:13:19This generation created a range of problems, some unintended
- 1:13:24consequences, some through lack of care.
- 1:13:27But they finally came to the realisation that the future of
- 1:13:33the planet and future generations was still within
- 1:13:36their hands and still within their grasp.
- 1:13:38That it was not at the point where nothing could be done and
- 1:13:42it was basically we're all doomed no matter what we do now.
- 1:13:47That the leaders took that situation and made something of
- 1:13:52it to improve the future of the coming generations.
- 1:13:58That's a fantastic take. So when it comes to you
- 1:14:01personally, what, what drives you to stay at the forefront of
- 1:14:07this space even after decades of experience?
- 1:14:09Look. I think it's two things,
- 1:14:14Ademola. I am basically an optimist.
- 1:14:18I'd like to believe the optimistic view of the future.
- 1:14:22And even though I've been around for a few years, that endless
- 1:14:26curiosity when I look at something and find something in
- 1:14:30my newsletter or in my research and I go like, wow, look at
- 1:14:34that. How ingenious are we as humans
- 1:14:37that we've managed to do this? And the endless curiosity and
- 1:14:42amazement at what we can do. I continue to be amazed.
- 1:14:46I continue to enjoy what I do and I find it endlessly
- 1:14:50fascinating. And that ability in consulting,
- 1:14:54but in particularly in the speaking, to go out and tell
- 1:14:57people about what's going on and to spread the word on what's
- 1:15:00going on in new technologies and say that that endless innovation
- 1:15:05and of, of, of humanity, that's what keeps me going.
- 1:15:09I I really thoroughly enjoy that.
- 1:15:13I, I, I love that. And of course, you know, there's
- 1:15:17something about people who love knowledge, who love to learn.
- 1:15:23You always find yourself when I say, running down different
- 1:15:28rabbit holes. And of course, you know, you
- 1:15:31just reminded me of something like that.
- 1:15:33There was a time I was reading a newsletter just in the evening,
- 1:15:37only to discover that he, he, he put me on research board into
- 1:15:41the midnight. And I asked myself, like, who
- 1:15:44sent you to do this? Yeah, suddenly an hour or two
- 1:15:51hours gone by. Like good grief, where did that
- 1:15:53go? And then you just keep going
- 1:15:58down the rabbit hole that it's, it's that curiosity.
- 1:16:03And I think it's, it's a common denominator when you look at
- 1:16:06people who end up becoming elite level experts.
- 1:16:11I tell people the best in the world are the best in the world
- 1:16:13for a reason, right? You can't take away the place
- 1:16:17of, you know, that hunger. You can't teach a person to be
- 1:16:20curious. I, I, I don't know how to teach
- 1:16:24a person to be curious. You need to you need to want to
- 1:16:26know it by yourself and that's how you know you end up getting
- 1:16:30when I say people who become elite level experts at what ease
- 1:16:34that they do. I don't know if you ever
- 1:16:37intended to become a futurist or to be known as a futurist, but
- 1:16:41that curiosity LED you into the research that made you become,
- 1:16:46what I say, globally relevant. And of course, I think it's
- 1:16:50something we need to tell people listening to us today.
- 1:16:53Like, you always have to develop that curiosity, right?
- 1:16:56Be curious about something, about something relevant and
- 1:17:00something meaningful. And yeah, things will definitely
- 1:17:05shake off. Wow.
- 1:17:08And I think the other thing is, I think as a futurist, you have
- 1:17:11to be part dreamer. You have to dream of the future.
- 1:17:15You have to dream of a future that you want to see become
- 1:17:19reality and strive to help people to embrace that future
- 1:17:25and for that dream to become a reality.
- 1:17:28I mean, my, I hopefully I can make it to 2050.
- 1:17:31I hope to look back in 2050 and go, yes, that dream of healthy,
- 1:17:38sustainable, fairly feeding the global population has come to
- 1:17:42pass that dream. So I think you have to be not
- 1:17:46just curious that curiosity. I think that's intertwined with
- 1:17:50being a dreamer as well. You're so curious that you dream
- 1:17:53of how these things can influence the future and how
- 1:17:57they could become reality. Speaking of dreaming, I'll give
- 1:18:02you this line. I think you'd like it.
- 1:18:04You cannot feature in the future that you cannot picture.
- 1:18:09How about that? You cannot.
- 1:18:14You cannot feature in the future that you cannot feature, so I'll
- 1:18:19give you that lie. I like it.
- 1:18:24I like it. Thank you.
- 1:18:26Thank you very. Much going to make a note of
- 1:18:29that one. You cannot feature in the future
- 1:18:32that you cannot feature. Guys, you heard it on the King
- 1:18:37Goose pockets first before before Tony Hunter.
- 1:18:43And I like, well, he's going to want royalties, folks.
- 1:18:48He's going to want royalties. Before Tony Hunter takes it and
- 1:18:57puts it on one of the keynote speeches.
- 1:19:02And then I'll see it and go, where's my royalties?
- 1:19:05Where's my royalties? No, no, no.
- 1:19:10I started a way for you. That's my gift to you today
- 1:19:13before before we heat the quick fire round.
- 1:19:16So it's five questions, you know, quick answers, right?
- 1:19:21So let me know Are you ready to rumble?
- 1:19:27Hey. I'm ready.
- 1:19:28I'm ready. Question Nice you were born
- 1:19:33ready. Number one question is 1 Food
- 1:19:36innovation that will shock the world in the next 10 years?
- 1:19:41What is 1 Food innovation that will shock?
- 1:19:44The world in the. Next 10 years.
- 1:19:46Yeah. I think the innovation that will
- 1:19:49shock the world is someone coming up with a product that
- 1:19:53will improve our health span towards our lifespan so that we
- 1:19:58don't spend 10 to 15 years of cognitive decline and physical
- 1:20:03decline. Someone who invents that, that
- 1:20:05will shock people. I think I'm shocked already
- 1:20:10thinking about it. I am shocked already.
- 1:20:14Well #2 #2 is what is 1 belief about food that people need to
- 1:20:25unlearn immediately today. They need to unlearn that anyone
- 1:20:33diet suits absolutely everyone. We are all highly individual and
- 1:20:39we need individual personalised diets.
- 1:20:43Wow, please can you repeat that again?
- 1:20:46Can you let the people out the back hear that?
- 1:20:56Because I think a lot of people need to realise this, you know,
- 1:21:01that there's no one-size-fits-all, you know,
- 1:21:04plan. And yeah, don't, don't let me
- 1:21:07come for some people on the Internet.
- 1:21:11Don't let me call for some people because they're people
- 1:21:15who I think you've seen them. You've seen them already.
- 1:21:18I'm not going to, I'm not going to call them out.
- 1:21:20I'll leave that to you to call them out.
- 1:21:28Wow #3 is if you had $1,000,000 to invest today in food tech,
- 1:21:35where would it go to? I would put it into something
- 1:21:42based on what's my one of my favourite technologies, right.
- 1:21:45There's lots of technologies, but plant molecular farming
- 1:21:50where you put the gene for a compound you want, like casein
- 1:21:54into a soybean. You grow the soybeans, take out
- 1:21:58the casein to make cheese and process the rest of the soybean.
- 1:22:02I'd invest in that technology. Interesting stuff.
- 1:22:08What is 1 habit that keeps you ahead of exponential change?
- 1:22:17It goes back again, Adamundo, as you said, for all future is
- 1:22:20endless boundless curiosity. As I say, if I only knew now
- 1:22:25what I knew six months ago, I would be completely useless.
- 1:22:28Things change so quickly When I speak, I check my slides the
- 1:22:32night before to make sure nothing's changed with the
- 1:22:36companies I'm going to use as examples because things change
- 1:22:38so quickly. I have changed slides the night
- 1:22:42before a presentation because they weren't right anymore.
- 1:22:45They changed since I wrote them when I got on the plane a couple
- 1:22:48of days beforehand. Wow.
- 1:22:53It's, it's, it's, it's quite interesting the, the rapid, you
- 1:22:57know, change in technology. We have it.
- 1:22:59I, I once spoke with a guy, he, he, he, he was named under
- 1:23:05Forbes 30 under 30. Alexandra Hampson, you have from
- 1:23:10Canada. And then he was talking about
- 1:23:12how himself and his team were developing a tech solution, I
- 1:23:17think for the aerospace industry.
- 1:23:19And guess what, Just midway in the development of that product,
- 1:23:26the technology in this space changed.
- 1:23:29And what it is that they were developing became obsolete.
- 1:23:33And it's crazy. It's crazy how technology can be
- 1:23:38you just midway development of product.
- 1:23:40And of course, the product is already out of fashion.
- 1:23:45So what would be your final message to leaders viewed in the
- 1:23:49future of humanity? True food.
- 1:23:55Well, I think there are only two things that you need to do in
- 1:23:59order to stay alive, right? Drink and eat.
- 1:24:04So you're in the business of the survival of humanity.
- 1:24:11That is the business that you're in now.
- 1:24:14Food. We have to eat food to be
- 1:24:19healthy, but we have to acknowledge as a food industry
- 1:24:22that we have caused a lot of the problems that we've seen,
- 1:24:26lifestyle related diseases like type 2 diabetes, obesity and
- 1:24:32things like that. And as the food industry, it's
- 1:24:37our obligation to say, knowing what we now know in terms of the
- 1:24:43effects on the consumer, the population, knowing what we now
- 1:24:47know in technology, nutrition and everything else, how do we
- 1:24:51ensure that our food products are healthy for human beings and
- 1:24:59they do not contribute to disease?
- 1:25:02That, I think, is something as food executives, we really need
- 1:25:07to think deeply about. Maybe we didn't quite know it 10
- 1:25:10or 20 years ago, but we do know it now and we can't stick a head
- 1:25:14in the sand. We have to say, how do we
- 1:25:17change? Wow, interesting.
- 1:25:21I think I'll disagree with you on something.
- 1:25:24I think I'll say there are 4 things you need to do to stay
- 1:25:26alive #1 breathe in oxygen #2 eat food #3 drink water, and #4
- 1:25:34listen or watch The Kingdom's podcast.
- 1:25:39I missed that last one. I should have got that last one.
- 1:25:47Wow, thank you very much. You know, for, for for your time
- 1:25:50today, you know, today it has actually been powerful.
- 1:25:54And of course, you have given us modern insights.
- 1:25:57You've given us golden Nuggets. And of course, you've given us a
- 1:26:01lens to see the future. And of course, for everyone
- 1:26:04listening, this is your moment. The future is not something you
- 1:26:06wait for. It is something you decide.
- 1:26:09And of course that's always we build legacy by opening doors.
- 1:26:12So from me to the audience, it is, you know, always go for
- 1:26:17something in your lives, conceive belief, strive to
- 1:26:20thrive and go achieve. And of course, for me, it's
- 1:26:25actually goodbye. But from Tony Hunter, do you
- 1:26:27have any last words? Do you have anybody to give a
- 1:26:30shout out to? And I'll leave you to say your
- 1:26:33goodbye. I mean, my thanks, Adam, all
- 1:26:38that. Thanks very much for the
- 1:26:39opportunity to be on the podcast.
- 1:26:40It's been an honour to be on the podcast with you.
- 1:26:42Thank you very much. And just basically to my fellow
- 1:26:46futurists out there, all the other people on the Global Gurus
- 1:26:49Top 30 and others who are out there, keep doing the work, keep
- 1:26:54looking to the future because we need to create the future that
- 1:26:59we want to see. Because what I always say to
- 1:27:01companies, look, if you don't look at what you can do to
- 1:27:05create the future you want, someone else will create one for
- 1:27:10you. And you may not like the one
- 1:27:12they create for you. Wow.
- 1:27:17That is deep. That is deep.
- 1:27:19So shout out to all of your, you know, futurist colleagues that
- 1:27:24that I have interviewed. So for, you know, Diana David,
- 1:27:31Brett King, Bronwyn Williams. Yeah, my friend Rohit Tawar in
- 1:27:42London. Rohit.
- 1:27:43Rohit Tower. Yeah, Rohit Tower.
- 1:27:45He's my friend as well. We're connected.
- 1:27:49We we should we should we should bring him on the podcast as
- 1:27:52well. Rohit Tower.
- 1:27:53If you see this, you can see it's it's time for you to be on
- 1:27:57board. Who else?
- 1:27:58Who else? What names are we forgetting?
- 1:28:00And another futurist from Australia called Michael
- 1:28:06McQueen, he's a very good trends person, speaks a lot, very well
- 1:28:12known globally. So shout out to Michael as well.
- 1:28:15Local Australian guy. Michael, I know Michael.
- 1:28:19I know Michael McQueen. I think I dropped a comment on
- 1:28:22his LinkedIn post yesterday. Yeah, Michael, he always has
- 1:28:27like fantastic takes. I think I love futures.
- 1:28:31I do love futures. Like you cannot help but love
- 1:28:35the futures. Wow.
- 1:28:37So once again, for me again, it's thank you.
- 1:28:40It's it's a love and respect to you.
- 1:28:42And of course, guys, you know what to do, like subscribe,
- 1:28:48comment and of course, share, share this share with your
- 1:28:51friends and your foes, right. Everybody needs to be future
- 1:28:54proof. So goodbye guys.
- 1:29:00Uh.