Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Who Should Set The Rules For Farming

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Who Should Set The Rules For Farming · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Three, two, one.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to the Ag Bull Podcast.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy Grossofi, Ag Bull Media Ag Bowl Trading.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: We got an action-packed show.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: We want to get right to it.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: But before we do, we want to say we're thinking about you.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: Farmers, ranchers, ranchers.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: We just hit all-time highs in meats today in the cattle, not the hogs so much.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: People planting crops.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We hear what's going on.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: There's some weather problems.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: There's some weather problems in South America.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: And the markets hear what's going on.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: With that, we want to thank our sponsors.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: Number one sponsor of this show, proud user of Trade the News.
• 0:40
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• 0:42
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• 0:45
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• 1:06
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• 1:11
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• 1:19
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• 1:21
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• 1:39
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• 1:40
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• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: I am happy to be here, grateful to be here.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: I just came downstairs.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: I told my wife, there's something really cool about doing this every Friday.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: One, it means the markets are closed, and two, it means I get to see my good friend.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: And when I say friend, I truly mean friend.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Let's uh play this little intro video and then he's gonna pop on.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna focus on that in the podcast today, along with some other subjects.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm also happy because tomorrow, Saturday, I leave for four glorious days in Texas at the crop uh at SIPO meeting.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's the crop insurance agents.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I have more than a few friends there, so I can't wait.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, excellent.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: Let's uh let's get right into the show.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: You have a great show, a little tighter on bullet points, but I think every single subject you're bringing in today is extremely important to uh folks.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: You have our markets table, and then we're gonna talk about the uh production report.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: The reason I I gave the train sound and I got to give it one more time, Jim.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: Look at these prices.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: Look at these prices, folks.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: If you get anything from the show, you need to know two things.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: The commodity markets are in play, and two, the government's sending another round of checks.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: And so for all the people who said the world was ending at harvest, it kind of was.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: But when you do ag accounting, you gotta think in multiple years.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: This stage is yours, Jim.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk markets.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and we said some higher prices were going to come, and they're even coming faster than I think we thought.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Corn, it closed at a 13-month high close.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: It was up what for the week?
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: A little over almost 17 cents.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans closed at a six-week high close, and for the week was up almost 25 cents.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Week continues its bull run, and you can see the numbers there.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Cotton, oh thank goodness, hit a contract high, and for the week was up 483 points.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: The July cotton futures uh rose to a little over 84 cents, Tommy.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: We're getting near break-even if if we're not there, aren't we?
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and everyone's got a different break-even, but those are uh prices to celebrate.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: And Jim, I I I've sent out texts to clients this week.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: We are at hedgeable protectable levels.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: So, do you need to make a cash sale?
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: You might want to think about it.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: Seriously, it is May 1st, and if you're afraid to sell cash, you should be protecting these prices because, Jim, this is so important.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: We're between we're well above crop insurance levels.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: And it uh the the the farmer, I got to jump on here.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: The farmer has a fiduciary duty to protect the price between their crop insurance level and these new prices in the market.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: And all the farmers want is a market-led rally and success through them growing record crops and having the world come to our markets, and that's starting to happen.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: Let's keep talking.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go over the city.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: You saw the cattle contract highs early on today, then they backed off a little today uh at the close.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: And we got to get hogs going again, but they were had a down week, down 62 cents on the June.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get in the show.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: Stage is yours, Jim.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'm popping out of here.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I wanted to point out next not next week, but the following May the 12th, we have the May WASDI in the crop production report.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's the uh wheat, wheat numbers.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: We'll still and then we'll get USDA's first look, I think, at projections, not based on surveys of uh of the year ahead for all commodities.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: So mark mark uh you know, May the 12th down.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be the next snapshot of supply uh snapshot of supply and demand.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: That is Tuesday the 12th.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, sir.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: Here we go, Jim.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: Stage is yours.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is the focus uh of this week's podcast is on the house farm bill.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: It was approved.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Boy, did we have some late night drama on Wednesday during the day Wednesday?
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Most of the ag reporters and writers, uh, if you followed them, said that there would not be a house farm bill vote on Thursday.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: I held back primarily because my best sources were telling me, and they've been through more than a few farm bills, they kept on telling me, wait, there it's it's just gonna go.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: There's gonna be a vote.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: And they were right, but I had to stay up till almost midnight Wednesday, and then we had carryover drama with very sensitive amendments that we're going to go through because they're that important in foreign policy and in markets, but it passed 224 to 200.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a lot of people say it passed by a bipartisan vote.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: We had 14 Democrats and one independent from California voted for the bill.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to call that bipartisan, go ahead.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: I don't.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: Three Republicans voted against it, but I will give Spurs to GT Thompson, the House AG Committee, in many ways, because he got it through the uh zone.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: He got it through for a touchdown, even though there were some glitches that we'll talk about later on.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: But I think GT did a good job in talking to all the farm state lawmakers, whether they were Republican or Democrat.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's why the 14 Democrats who voted yes voted the way they did.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: So uh spurs to him on that.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: Next one, Tommy.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now it both real quick question.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry to sorry to bother you on your own show, Jim.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: Do you know the names of the three GOP people who voted against and why would they do that?
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I did.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, probably they they had their own reasons.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'd have to I'll Google it.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'll Google it.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: I've got him here.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: I've got them.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: I knew it.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_01: I knew I wasn't gonna stump you.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: The three were uh Brian Fitzpatrick, moderate from Pennsylvania, Andrew uh Garberino from New York, moderate, there's a trend here, and Harriet Hageman from Wyoming.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: She's probably a moderate.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: They probably had their good reasons to do it, but those were the three.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of three, three farm bill pesticides.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: This is why uh initially the farm bill almost broke down because GT, I think, made a strategy mistake in including the pesticide language uh in it.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what what that language would have done, it would have made the EPA labeling the sole national standard.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, GT fervently believes that that's the way it should go, and a number of other lawmakers do too.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: It would have shielded manufacturers from lawsuits, but opposition from this came from the Make America Healthy Again movement.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: They called it corporate immunity.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: And once it got to that level, and they were led in their cause by representative, yeah, Anna Paulina Luna, Republican from Florida.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now she's called the Maha Queen, by the way, by the Maha people, because she she dethroned that pesticide measure.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: She got it defeated.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: And uh so the the significance here is Maha proved, Tommy, that it can directly shape major legislation.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: So whether so now it boils down to the issue is whether pesticide risk should be governed by federal regulators or states and the courts.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Right now it's without this legislation or this amendment, it's uh regul it's it's states and and the courts.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be tried in the Senate too, but I don't think you're gonna see it.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think what GT Thompson should have done is waited and let the Supreme Court rule on this issue because it's on their docket, Tommy, for later this year.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: And this involves Bayer and and other companies.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why it got into the emotional uh issue.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: And once it got there, you had more than a few lawmakers who voted in favor of Luna's agreement, which stripped out those provisions that GT wanted.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Can you tell me more about her?
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: I you Lindsay popped her picture in the very conservative, she's very articulate, she's on Fox News a lot, and uh very pretty, I will say.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: She's but not only pretty, but she's smart.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's a double, double.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and conservative, though, and sometimes some people would say almost too conservative on that one.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you know how it goes, but but but she she was forceful, and that's why the Maha movement took her on, and that's why she's the Maha queen now.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: Are we moving on?
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: Number four, farm bill year-round E-15.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Remember when we talked about year-round E-15 last week, and we said, you know, it faces a lot of hurdles.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: Once again, initially, it looked like earlier this week that it may have been in.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now, GT Thompson put it in.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: But again, you had lawmakers who were listening to the small to medium refiners saying, no, they don't want it.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: And it was such a negative, Tommy, that the lawmaker that the they would have brought down the farm bill vote had they linked it at the time, if it was not pulled out.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why I waited, it would have been Wednesday night, yeah, four or five hours on on until they discussed, discussed and discussed what they were gonna do in order to strip the underlying farm bill of of the pesticide provision and of the year-round E15.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: And they did.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now, once again, the biofuel proponents, corn growers, ethanol people, were dethroned near the last minute.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now, that that's a consistent pattern here.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: So, what are they not doing right?
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think they're giving enough to the small to medium refiners.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now, all is not lost, Tommy.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: GT Thompson said that there's going to be a vote on on a ethanol bill, uh standalone or what otherwise, on the House by May 13th.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: Some people say he said May the 13th, but my ear heard by May the 13th.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: But don't get too enamored with the any date, especially when it comes to the House.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, we've been waiting 15 years.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, absolutely.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: Bet bet against it, probably.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_01: You were in high school when they tried to push this damn thing through.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's a long time, long time.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's when the Supremes were number one.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: That's when the the nuns were beating you with the stick, like in the blues brothers.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: Remember when they beat the blues brothers, they went down the stairs?
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, I have to tell you, I had a number of uh nuns who who who schooled me as well.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: You you ended up better for it.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: So, what's the outlook in the House and Senate?
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: Here's a little nugget that I'm still researching.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: Nugget.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: Some people tell me now you'll read some reports saying this bill is now on to the Senate.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: That tells me they've never covered a farm bill in earnest.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's not on to the Senate yet, because it has to be enrolled.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: It takes several days for it to be to get all these amendments and then enrolled into the house.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that might take until early next week.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: But the other nugget I have on this is some people are telling me, unless they have a new rule, the underlying rule for the House Farm Bill says that it has to go, it has to have this E15 uh in the House farm bill when it goes over to the Senate.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that means that the Senate won't be able, if if that's true, and I'm still checking it out, if that's the case, they won't be able to enroll it in the Senate until they have a vote on year-round E15.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I I keep being asked, Tommy, what's the final verdict on year-round E-15?
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think eventually we're going to get it.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: However, I want to see the final language of the bill that they agree on, because every time when they've left it just to the ethanol proponent, the biofuel lobbyist, they haven't given enough to those who are against it.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: So until they do, and until I see that language, I'm not going to put a prediction because they they're going to have to alter the bill that they wanted if they want year-round E-15, which I think they'll eventually do.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Because Thune, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said when they do take up the farm bill on the Senate floor, it's going to include uh year-round ethanol.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: And Thune is kind of careful when he says things.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that took a lot of weight.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: That that had a lot of people take take notice when he said that.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's the bottom line on the E15.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: Prop 12, remember that's the one where California is dictating how hogs and other animals, but especially hogs, uh, should be housed, cages, certain dimensions, etc.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, again, GT put in the house farm bill basically language that would uh uh modify, if not Nixed, uh Nix, California Prop 12.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now, there were efforts to to to to delete that from lawmakers from California, the East Coast, you know, Massachusetts, etc.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: However, that remains in the House bill.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: But I've got here, we've got the bullet point.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: Senate will not likely go along.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's you know, I'm not totally confident of that, but I would say it right now.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: The reason the Senate will not likely have it, Tommy, is because uh you need 60 votes to get a farm bill through the Senate.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: And if no Democrat will sign on to this bill, they're not gonna, we're not gonna have a farm bill, period.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: So I think John Bozeman, who's the Senate Act Committee, he says that he's gonna introduce his farm bill, his the Senate version, within weeks.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're gonna see.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: But I don't think it's gonna have some of these poison pills.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: I doubt if it includes uh pesticide language.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think he learned a lot from the House Farm Bill action.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be curious, sorry, what he has, if anything, on Prop 12.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna wait until see the language.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: Number six, farm bill.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: Next step, Senate, Bozeman, next few weeks.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: Few weeks, and it's gonna be more bipartisan than a house, as I said, because he needs 60 votes.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: So he's gonna have to work closely, and he will, with uh ranking member Amy Klobachar, Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat from Minnesota.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: Minnesota.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: And she's she has shown in in her career that she's willing and able to work with the other side when she thinks it's fair.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna see how whether or not he can get uh enough Republicans to vote when it eventually gets to the uh Senate.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: But it's gonna be a different bill.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: That's another one I want to point out.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: Once the Senate gets their bill and it's voted on, then it's gonna be different.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: So then you have a House Senate conference.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's when all some interesting things could happen.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: So we're we're we're a long ways away from having a completed farm bill, and when we do, it could change several times.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I want the audience to hear, Tommy.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: Did you get everything on that one?
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: Number seven, fertilizer short-term, long term.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: Remember earlier this week?
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: Well, last week we thought we were gonna get it in Missouri announcement from USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, and then they pulled it back because she didn't have final clearance.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then earlier this week in Washington, she held a uh uh what she said it was gonna be a huge announcement, wasn't huge.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: And she I wonder where she gets verbs and adjectives and all that.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: I I like her personally, yeah, but she's just uh Trump can get away with that, but she can't.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: But Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary, was there.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: Lee Zeldon, EPA, was there.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: But the key here, Tommy, on fertilizer is what's the reason why they couldn't really have a huge announcement that she thought.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't have clearance yet from the White House on what I think will be the blockbuster one is funding.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: Where's the funding?
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: Howard Lutnick, commerce secretary.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: Remember when he was at Cantor Fitzgerald, he laid he laid his claim to accelerators where he would buy companies, etc.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he brought that concept into the Trump administration.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: Remember when we worked deals with Japan, to where Japan has said they're gonna spend hundreds of uh billions of dollars on investment in the United States.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Japan, I think they're gonna use that and other money eventually to uh to announce a mechanism of uh grants, funding, loan guarantees, not just for for fertilizer companies, new entrants and existing ones, believe it or not, but the cooperatives as well.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why you have to have loan guarantees.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: But so once they get the follow-through on this, what we call the investment accelerator program, I think that's the big announcement we're waiting for.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now that just helps you long term because it's going to take several years, but you can get a plant started fairly quickly if you have all these mechanisms, like I said, grants, tax incentives, permitting accelerated permission, backstop on loan guarantees.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so it can happen faster than most people think, but it won't help for the 2027 crop.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: What can they do short term?
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: 2027 or 2026?
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh both.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: And they've already announced the waiver of the Jones Act, and that's helped on the edges on transportation issues, shipments and things, but nothing what I would call major.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: And that goes to our interview with uh bring up the uh Morocco Vaden.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: Vaden's you mentioned that Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: And they and they they're also going to import some more fertilizer from Venezuela, but it's just uh you're you're we're in a pickle right now that that we've got uh high fertilizer prices, and really it's as a result in large part on the supply mechanism due to the Strait of Harmuz, the or the lack thereof of utilizing the strait.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I thought I think you had some the uh bullet point.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there we go.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: Josh Lynnville again, folks.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: If you're not following him on X Josh is this is what he does.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about these prices, Jim.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: Can you see that?
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: 10-week anniversary of the state of Harmuz closing.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: And look at Nola urea up almost 40 percent, the you know, 55 percent for for is that nitrogen or urea?
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: Urea, yeah uh you've you've got DAP and map, but look at look at the high ones, and new crop corn is seven percent high higher.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: So that's called a cost price squeeze.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: And and this is why eventually.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: You're going to have another farm income assistance program approved by Congress.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have a little bit more on that later on, Tommy.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: But this is a classic case where even though we have higher grain prices right now, those fertilizer prices are just putting a sledgehammer to the farmer's bottom line.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's the so you're going to have more later.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's going to be good news.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: Finally, we're going to have a longer-term strategy that in a few years we're going to get more production back into the United States, reshore it and shore it.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: But in the case of potash, we've got to have friendlier terms with Canada because that's where that's where we get our potash.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: So eventually we're going to have improved relations again between the U.S.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: and Canada because we have a North American market.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: So at least we know what to do.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's we have to get the tools in place in order to announce it and start executing the program.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: Rumor has it.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Rumor.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: What'd you learn?
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney?
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: Who picked up the bill?
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: I did.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_01: My ass.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Wasn't cheap either.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: Alligator Arms.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: Alligator Arms come in for the bill.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he was on my turf, so you know how that is.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: When you're on your turf, you gotta pay.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: He's dialed in, man.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: He knows what's up.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: He uh we had a great time.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_00: Talked about his family.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, he's in Arizona now.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: His boy is at a baseball game, he's at a playoff, so that's why he wasn't on Agra Talk today.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: However, Sean's a good friend, good broadcaster, good writer.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: On the menu was Capitol Grill, and I love steak.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: And our waiter said, you know, for the first time, we're offering a bone-in filet mignon.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: I've never had one, a bone in.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you asked me if I did, but I said, Yeah, but it's a lot more work.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: You got to work around that bone, but more flavor.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, is it ever good?
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: Did you finish it?
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: Because I know you're you're I did, but I was filled.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: I was filled, but it was excellent.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: It was one of the best I've ever had, and that's why I love bone-in steaks, but they're not cheap.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: They're not cheap.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, yeah, we had a good time, and Haney wishes that we wouldn't be Fortress America, Fortress Canada, and get back to the North American market.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I told him eventually we'll get there.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: Where there uh there should be changes in USMCA relative to the dairy situation in Canada, relative to the car situation that China's got an ender round on cars from Mexico to the United States.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: You have some labor issues still involved with that.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: And as John Newton at the American Farm Bureau points out, we still have fruit and vegetable issues between the U.S.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: and Mexico because right at the time when American fruit and vegetable producers are harvesting, a lot of times we get a lot of product coming in from Mexico.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: Some people charge it's dumping.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: So I think there's going to have to be a refocus on the dispute resolution language within USMCA.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't mean you should throw away the agreement, just improve it.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think we'll have a lot of hurdles to go through, but in the final result, we'll still have a USMCA because Canada, the US, and Mexico are built on North American markets.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's a good thing.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's the the United States, Canada, Mexico against let's we're picking teams, right?
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: We have China, we have Russia, we have everyone's got a team right now.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, you Mercosur, yeah, Mercosur and things like that.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_00: So so don't improve it.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely improve it.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_00: And Canada's gonna want some improvements as well, and Mexico.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, that's where that's why you have a review.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: You you just have a civil discussion.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the the this administration tends to want to have leverage.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: I understand that's their that's their approach.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: But I think eventually things will settle down and and uh GT Thompson mentioned this this week.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: He and a number of uh lawmake farm state lawmakers, they want the US MCA to continue, and almost every major, every major farm group does as well.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: We'll eventually get there.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: Number eight, ag labor.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: GT Thompson, next big issue.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he was asked this week, hey, now that you've got at least the farm bill off the house floor, it's still got a ways to go.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna focus on now?
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_00: And within a nanosecond, he said uh farm labor issues.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the problem is that uh uh the House Ag Committee doesn't have total jurisdiction over this issue, so and GT knows that.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: So he's gonna work with the other panels.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: He knows that farm labor needs attention here because the there's increased needs, especially with our our secure border right now.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the person I'm telling you to watch out for, whether or not we can get true legislation, is White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security, Stephen Miller.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, you see him a lot on Fox News.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: You talk about conservative, he is really conservative, but I'm telling you, when it comes to speaking within the administration, he has Trump's ears, like Dumbo ears Trump has.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: He listens to him.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_00: So you may not like what he says a lot, but you gotta listen to see what he's saying.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's gonna be the whether or not we're gonna have true ag labor reform, because I think the votes are there in agriculture to have reform because it's needed, Tommy.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's needed.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see by the end of the year whether or not we get it done.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: Excellent.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: Number nine, new farmers.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now, for those in the listening and viewing audience, the top-up payment that we talked about last week under stage one, that's going to be a little over six billion dollars.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_00: I bet most of you just within the last day or so got those funds.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: And if you didn't, let me know.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: Because USDA tells me they're really starting to pump them out.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the other question I get a lot on is will Congress or the administration have an additional farmer aid package?
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's not going to come from the administration this time, it's going to from come from Congress.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the timeline is uh farm state lawmakers are waiting on ag disaster, additional ag disasters this year.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_00: We've we've got a brewing drought in wheat country.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: Look at all those fires, right?
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be part of an eventual ag disaster aid and farmer relief package.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: John Newton said today that he hopes that this comes before the August congressional recess, the long recess, and then you're really getting into midterm uh uh elections where the focus on Congress, which is already not very, very uh tight, just really lapses.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_00: So between now and the August congressional recess, watch this because the need is still there because what we said before, fertilizer prices, it's still eating into it.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: And so I do think that there'll be another farmer relief package and an disaster relief between now and let's say August.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: Number 10.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: Here we go again.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_00: When will the US-Mexico border ever reopen?
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Tommy, I don't have the vivid proof, but it seems like every time we get close to a USDA announcement that they're gonna reopen a portion of the border, it'll be a phased-in reopening and it'll focus on the western part, Arizona and New Mexico.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's for safety reasons.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_00: But every time we get close, all of a sudden, new cases of New World Screw Worm develop in Mexico.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: So some people are legitimately asking me, is Mexico gaming us?
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: Do they want to keep developing their own livestock markets down there and processing facilities?
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: At least I think it's a fair question to ask.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't know the answer yet.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_00: But it's but I don't think these things are coincidental anymore.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's just every time it happens, I don't even have to look.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_00: I know, uh-oh, if I'm starting to hear they're getting ready, then all of a sudden my next story is more cases in Mexico, 60 miles from our border, etc.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: So just keep that in mind.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_00: Other people say, look, as long as you have a science-based testing program and be careful that start slow and focus on the western areas where there's not as significant a threat as in Texas, start with Arizona, start with New Mexico, and have multiple tests of Mexican cattle coming across where they have to pass two, three, even four tests in order to come in to the country.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think that'll eventually be the plan.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't know when they'll officially announce it, Tommy.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you take a little uh break for yourself, get something to drink.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna mute your mic.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, folks, I just want to thank you for uh watching this show.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's almost been a year since Jim and I started this and just having the time in my life doing this.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_01: I've learned a lot.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: I know you all are learning a lot.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, several of you have reached out and asked Jim and I to speak, or Jim to speak, or myself to speak.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we get a hold of us, you know, we we can get that booked.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: And it's a privilege to go out and voice ag.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: I also want to challenge you all, because I know there's a lot of people who listen to this, thousands and thousands of you listen to this show weekly.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: If you'd like to be on the show, and Jim has a whole lineup of people who are going to come on the show, Newton.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have Secretary of Ag Rollins on one day, but she's extremely busy.
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_01: But we want her to get some things uh fixed, so we don't want to bother her right now.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: But if you're out there, I had someone who's very prominent in AG reach out, DM me today, said, Will you come on my show next week?
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: I said, Absolutely.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: He said, I can't believe you got back to me in five minutes.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: I said, It's what we do.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: We we help educate people.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_01: Now, speaking of help educating people, we're almost to the end of the show.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna start pushing this harder because you're gonna notice a lot of things are going premium.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_01: This week, Mr.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: Paul Nefer joined us.
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_01: Now, go to the AgBull YouTube channel or you go to the AgBull Podcast on Spotify, Apple, wherever you listen, you can hear Paul's thing.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: 45-minute show, just like we did with Jim.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_01: But Paul and I and Jim are gonna start doing a lot of private shows together, webinar type things.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: And if you'd like a show base for your company or your group or you want to do something quarterly, reach out to us.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: But that uh to be part of this is$25 a month,$250 annually, agbull.com.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: We'd love to see on the paid premium side.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have more and more premium content where you only get it if you're a paid subscriber.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: Right now, pretty much you only see one or two shows we do public, but we're doing about 10 a week, and pretty soon we're gonna do about 15 a week.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: So you want to be part of that premium.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: We give you our opinion of what we see going on.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: We're not paid off to tell you what we're supposed to tell you because a large advertiser paid us to do that.
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of advertisers, trade the news, they're not paying us, they they're just our partner here.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: But trade the news provides all the folks at Agble here with Trade the News service that is an audio squawk service, and it's just wonderful.
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, go to www.trade the news, google it, tell them the AgBull boys sent you.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're out there, I don't care if you're working in DC or anything else, if you're involved anyway in markets, and you are, if you're getting ready to pay for high diesel and high gas this weekend, you're involved in markets, a little sticker shock there when you go to pumps.
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_01: You got to get dialed in, and whether it be subscribing to us or subscribing trade the news, we thank them as a premier sponsor of this show.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think Jim had a nice little rest break.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_01: How was your break?
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: You all danced up, ready to go.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm glad you mentioned webinars because and even a number of of uh I know state farm bureaus uh frequently have requested me to do webinars for for their state meeting or college classes.
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh uh we'll do we'll usually give a discount.
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'll usually give a discount.
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry, Tommy.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: You are the dean of agriculture.
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_00: That just means I'm old.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_00: But the the uh some colleges, I'll usually give a discount because I should, because these are students, okay?
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_00: But we we will do certain classes.
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_00: I've done it for Texas AM, um uh Louisiana, etc.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: So I yeah, you should get hear the message that we're we just don't have to fly out in order to give a speech.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: We'll come right into your cushy area on a webinar live on the screen, okay?
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: Good real quick.
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_01: How are you enjoying Trade the News, Jim?
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_00: I know uh I really like it on volatile days, which we've had because it helps me a lot because they connect a lot of dots too, and and they're quick with their with their one or two lines, and that's all I need to to sniff out other news.
• 35:33
  SPEAKER_00: So I use them as a as a leader, if you will, to check out other things.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_00: I just applaud the service that they do.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_01: All right, that was 10.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_01: We covered that.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_01: Number 11.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: We're almost to the end of the show.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's important stuff though.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_00: Trump G, it looks like the meeting is still on May 14th and 15th.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll tell you, the good news, and we've been saying this for weeks, Tommy.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_00: trade rep uh Jameson Greer keeps telling people in his meetings with them, you know, after this is over, agriculture in the U.S.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_00: is going to be very happy.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: I like when I hear that.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_00: And it's just, and he keeps saying it's gonna be more than just soybeans.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't discount soybeans, good news, but he mentions other crops, corn, sorghum, beef, etc.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_00: So, and there's also another thing that they keep on talking about that that I wanted to go through very briefly, a board of trade.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now, it's not the traditional board of trade we think.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_00: Not this one.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's a no, it's a modern approach.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's modeled on it is modeled on the historical board of trade, but it's really going to signal a more structured, top-down control of trade policy.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna discuss periodically streamlining negotiations and enforcement.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_00: There is a there's an important element.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever you have a deal with China, the enforcement of it is just almost as important as the as the agreement.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_00: So rather than relying solely on existing mechanisms like the Office of the USDR or ad hoc deal making, we will have a structured board of trade in which the two countries can talk and iron out differences on non-sensitive trading items.
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: And that includes agriculture.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's non-sensitive.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing.
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_00: When I've always said when you can meet and talk about issues, that's always better than not meeting.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a good thing, and that's how we're gonna end the show on going back to where it was on the weekly market change.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_00: Uh contract.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_01: Look at these prices, folks.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_00: Contract hives for cotton, corn, soybeans.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_00: So so and wheat's just been in a fledgling bull market, the the creeping drought that we're going to go that we're going through.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_00: And we're still just be in the beginning of the of the planting and crop development phase.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: We haven't gone into the too too hot, too, too, too much sun, too little sun, and all that.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: So it tells me that it's going to remain volatile for at least the next few months, Tommy.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: And leave them with something awesome, or that was the awesome.
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, I do want to say something.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: I do want to say something about something awesome.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: Today, folks, the uh Dow Jones crossed over 50,000.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_01: You'll remember the last time that happened, Pam Bondi was yelling about but the Dow's 50,000, then it went down to 44 or 43, but it's bounced.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_01: SP and NASDAQ all-time highs.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_01: The NASDAQ last month, the month of April, had its greatest, biggest up month since I think like 2002.
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_01: I just read a zero hedge tweet a little bit ago.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_01: I also want to say, and that's a little weird and off the cuff, but Spirit Airlines is really uh struggling, and you're gonna see more you know things like that.
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if you were having a hard time before and then oil prices go up like they are, they don't have the capital and resources to fuel this new oil price and jet fuel.
• 39:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, jet fuel, yes, sir.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: And as as they bragged or you know, said they were the affordable airline.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, sometimes, folks, you just got to raise the price of stuff.
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I really do believe we are in an inflationary period again, and that's probably why the tenure is hanging out at uh 4.40.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, real quick, let's dive into that.
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: We had a going away party here for uh uh Jay Powell's out.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he'll he'll be out as of uh well whenever we have a confirmation of uh Kevin uh Walsh, which uh the Senate will approve, and his Powell's term officially ends May the 15th of this year.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: He can remain as a governor until through January of 2028.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I personally don't think that he'll he'll stay that long.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's a little upset because he wants to announce another of his appointments.
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_00: But Powell, to be fair to Powell, he says that he wants to be totally sure that that the investigation of him is completely eliminated, and it's not yet.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_00: So there's the dilemma there.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_00: I want to add on one other positive thing now.
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna connect the dots.
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_00: We focused uh we focused the podcast on the house farm bill.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_00: We've got something through, even though we have both parties visceral against each other most of the time now, they got it through.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_00: So things can happen in this Disneyland of the East, and that's a good thing, Tommy.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's a rap sports fan, Jim.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_01: Great show, shortest one ever.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want it to end, but sometimes it uh has to.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_01: And safe travels.
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_01: I hope you're not flying spirit.
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, stay safe, my friend.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_01: Stay safe.