Why the GDP Data Shows We Are Not in a Recession Yet

The Bear Market Podcast with Fexingo: Surviving Downturns, Buying the Dip, and Long-Term Resilience · Jul 19, 2026 · 5m · transcript

With the VIX at 18.77 and the VVIX near 105, markets are pricing in fear. But the latest GDP data tells a different story: nominal GDP hit $31.86 trillion, real GDP grew at 2.1%, and the 10Y-2Y spread is still positive at 37 basis points. Lucas and Luna unpack why this disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals matters for long-term investors. They drill into the GDP growth numbers, the yield curve's message, and what the VIX is really saying about recession risk. If you are trying to decide whether to buy the dip or wait, this episode gives you a framework grounded in data, not…